Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-19 | Marquette v. St. John's -1.5 | Top | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Johns -1.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET Love this spot for St Johns. We went against the Red Storm on Saturday and came up one point short as they lost @ Seton Hall 76-74 as a 3-point dog. We have to admit the Johnnies played much better than we thought they would. They were 12-0 coming into the game but hadn’t played a great schedule and nearly all of their games had been at home. They were taking on a Seton Hall team that had already beaten the likes of Kentucky & Maryland (on the road). St Johns proves us wrong as they led on the road for nearly the entire game including holding a 10 point lead with just 6:00 remaining in the game. In fact the Pirates largest lead of the game was just 2 points. The way the game ended should have St Johns motivated here as they lost on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. The Red Storm is now back at home where they have an average margin of victory of 18 PPG shooting nearly 50% from the field while allowing just 39%. Marquette has moved up the rankings all the way to #16 on the back of a 8 game winning streak. They have been doing their damage at home as this team has not left Milwaukee since November 23rd! They are just 1-2 in their 3 games away from home (away & neutral) and in their only true road game @ Indiana they Golden Eagles were rolled 96-73. They rely very heavily on the 3-point shot (35% of their points) which can be tough to maintain on the road, especially when you’ve played at home for over a month straight. Last year the Johnnies were favored by a similar number (-2) and won 86-78. They home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings and there is a reason the unranked team (St Johns) is favored over the #16 team in the country. Lay the small number. |
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12-30-18 | Bulls v. Raptors -10 | Top | 89-95 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* Play on: #554 Toronto Raptors -10.5 over Chicago Bulls, 6PM ET - *Short analysis on NFL Sunday* - We like the setting here with the Bulls off a rare win on the road in Washington, while the Raptors are off a poor showing and loss in Orlando. Expect a reverse of fortunes for both teams here. Toronto (26-11) is arguably one of the top five teams in the NBA right now and have an average home differential of +7.6PPG which is 7th best in the league. Chicago (10-26) is arguably one of the worst teams in the NBA right now with the 6th worst road point differential of minus – 8.5PPG. When we compare the Raptors home games against similar opponents to the Bulls this season here is what we find: +16 points vs. Cavs, +10 vs. Heat, +18 vs. Wizards, +16 vs. Knicks, +21 vs. Hornets, +12 vs. Cavs. In other words, asking Toronto to win by double-digits at home against this level of competition is not a stretch. The Bulls have suffered some ugly road losses to similar teams to the Raptors this season: Lost to 76ers by 19-points, at Boston -29, at Milwaukee -19, at Houston -16, at OKC -25. Toronto was favored by this same margin in Chicago earlier this year and won by 39! Bulls just 2-7 ATS off a win this season and they’ll get dealt a beatdown today north of the border. |
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12-30-18 | Browns +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points. |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -14 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West. A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard. We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2. These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes. KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game. While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense. It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland. Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season. The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals. The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing. They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season. Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league. They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games. That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs. This one will get ugly. |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here. We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game. Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points. |
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12-29-18 | Spurs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 122-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
ASA play on: #548 LA Clippers -3.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 10:35PM ET – Both teams played last night but the Clippers were at home in L.A. while the Spurs were in the higher altitude of Denver. The Clippers were able to spread their minutes out in a win over the Lakers as only two starters played more than 30 minutes. The Spurs had three players over 30+ minutes in a close game with the Nuggets. San Antonio has really struggled this year when playing without rest with an 0-6 SU record. Dating back to the start of the 2017 season the Spurs have the worst record in the NBA against the spread when playing on consecutive nights with a 7-14 ATS record. The Spurs haven’t been great on the road of late either with a 2-6 SU record their last eight away and the two wins came against 15-19 Orlando and 10-26 Chicago. The Clippers are playing well right now with wins in 4 of their last five games and the lone loss was in Golden State. L.A.’s efficiency differentials are certainly trending in the right direction and they have a positive point differential of +8.6PPG their last five. Lastly, we like the value here as these same two teams met a few weeks back with the Spurs favored by 3-points at home. That should translate to the Clippers being 5 or 6-point chalks here. By the way, the Clippers were blown out in that game and haven’t forgotten. Bet the L.A. Clippers tonight. |
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12-29-18 | Oregon v. Boise State +2 | Top | 62-50 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State +2 over Oregon, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network We felt the Ducks came into this season overvalued ranking in the top 20 in most pre-season polls and undeserved in our opinion. They were a solid 23-13 a year ago but lost a number of key players and they are relying on young players this year. More so in this game as they have lost a few key contributors as of late. Starting forward Kenny Wooten was injured in their most recent game – a 10 point loss @ Baylor – and he is out. Freshman and leading scorer Bol Bol has missed 3 games and they are not sure if he can come back from a foot problem here. Even if he does, he won’t be 100%. Starter Abu Kigab is also out with an injury for this game. The Ducks will be relying here on a number of players who’ve seen very little action this year as their bench is ultra-thin due to the injuries. As we discuss our thoughts on Boise, you’ll see they are the direct opposite of Oregon. We feel the Broncos are undervalued due to their 5-7 record. This team is talented. They return 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s team that was 23-9. They also added one of the top JC transfers in the nation in RJ Williams who leads the Broncos in scoring at 15 PPG. They’ve had a tough start with 7 of their 12 games coming away from home. Four of their seven losses have come by 3 points or less and they’ve played some tough teams on the road including this Oregon team. Yes this is a rematch from a game played on December 15th. That game was in Eugene and the Ducks won 66-54 – a game that BSU shot just 35% while Oregon hit 49% of their shots. The Ducks also got some home cookin’ and made 9 more FT’s. Despite that, the game was close throughout with OU leading by single digits most of the 2nd half. The Ducks have played 2 true road games this year and lost them both. On the other side, Boise has a fantastic home court advantage at the Taco Bell Arena where they are 34-5 SU their last 39! Very rarely do we get Boise as a home dog and we love this spot. The Broncos win outright at home. |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play. |
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12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
ASA play on: #512 Charlotte Hornets -4.5 over Brooklyn Nets, 7PM ET – We are not big ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA and even though that applies here, it’s not our motivation for betting Charlotte. No, our reason for betting the Hornets is line value. In Brooklyn the other night the Nets were favored by -1.5 points. That means the Hornets should be 7 or 8 here. Because Brooklyn is on a 9-1 SU run their last ten games it has forced the oddsmakers to over-correct here. The Nets have a very respectable road differential of -.6PPG with an 8-8 record but only two of their eight road wins have come against teams with winning records. Charlotte is 12-7 SU at home this year with a +5.1PPG point differential with their last two home wins coming by double-digits. Charlotte has a significantly better efficiency defense and is slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings. The Hornets are 7-3 SU at home when coming off a loss this year and they’ll get a win tonight by more than the suggested number. We won’t blame Brooklyn if they look past the team they just beat with Milwaukee on deck tomorrow night. Lay the points. |
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12-27-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 116-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
ASA play on: L.A. Lakers +4 @ Sacramento Kings, 10PM ET – If you’ve been an ASA follower then you know we love to play on teams the immediate game following an injury to a super star. There are two key factors for this thought process. One, the line gets over-corrected because of public perception on the loss of a marquee player. These same two teams met in early November on this same court and the Lakers were favored by -5.5 points and won by 15. Now without LeBron the Lakers are getting +3.5 points. That’s tremendous value! Two, typically after losing a star player the other guys on the team take their games to another level to prove a point and they have an increased role. L.A. has a lot more weapons on this roster than I gave them credit for early in the season. Kuzma is going to be a special player in the NBA someday and continues to grow. Ball has proven he’s a solid player in this league despite not being a great shooter. They have decent depth now with Hart, Chandler, Stephenson and Zubac not to mention McGee who could be back for this game after a bought with the flu. The Laker have the much better defense in this match up with the 10th ranked defensive efficiency unit compared to Sacramento’s 22nd ranked. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Kings hold a slight edge with the 15th ranked unit compared to the Lakers 17th ranked. Sacramento is 9-7 SU at home this season but are just one of 9 teams in the entire NBA that has a negative home differential (-2.4PPG). The Lakers on the other hand have a positive road differential of +1.2PPG which is 8th best. The Kings have struggled when playing on back-to-back nights having lost 5 straight to the spread in that role, and the average loss margin has been double-digits. Without LeBron in the lineup this game loses a lot of its luster for the Kings who will take L.A. for granted. That’s perfect for us! The Lakers win this road game without LBJ. |
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12-26-18 | Wolves -4 v. Bulls | Top | 119-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
#579 Minnesota Timberwolves -4 @ Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET – Let’s just say this, laying points with teams in Chicago isn’t an intimidating thing as they have the WORST point differential in the league at minus -8.5PPG. Chicago’s home record is 5-12 SU this season but those wins came against teams with a combined 67-98 SU record, and only one has an above .500 record. Now you can look and say the Wolves are 3-13 SU on the road this season but all thirteen of those losses came against Western Conference opponents. Two of their road wins came against similar teams to the Bulls from the East (Brooklyn and Cleveland). The Bulls are the least efficient offensive team in the NBA at just 1.018 points per possession, Minny is 16th. Chicago is the 22nd ranked defensive efficiency unit allowing 1.104PPP while the Wolves are 10th at 1.062PPP. It’s clear the Wolves have played the much tougher schedule (12th) while the Bulls have played a soft schedule (21st) yet the T-Wolves have much better efficiency stats. This game won’t be close. Minnesota’s 6-1 ATS record versus the Bulls grows to 7-1 after tonight. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season. After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT. After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games. Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs. They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure. Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie. As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation. Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright! On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night). Want more? With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games. Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion. They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed. That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season. While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow. The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3). KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team. We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points. |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one. |
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12-22-18 | Ohio State -6 v. UCLA | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -6 over UCLA, Saturday at 3:00 PM ET on CBS UCLA comes in with just a 7-4 record and vs top 100 teams they are just 1-4 (Ohio State ranked 25 in Ken Pom). That’s understandable as this is a very young team that is finding their way right now and should be better as the year progresses. The Bruins start 2 freshmen and 2 more are key contributors off the bench. They are 0-3 in road/neutral games and are coming off getting waxed @ Cincinnati on Thursday. (lost by 29 points). The Buckeyes beat that same Cincinnati team on the road by 8 this season. Now 2 days later the Bruins are still on the road in Chicago to play a very solid Ohio State team. Not ideal for a young team over the Xmas break. OSU has a big advantage today playing in the United Center as they’ve already faced Illinois at this venue a few weeks ago. Ohio State won that game by 10 points. The Buckeyes are a fantastic defensive team ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency and 10th in eFG% defense. Add that to the fact that the United Center is a very tough venue for shooting, especially when you haven’t played here, and we expect UCLA to struggle offensively. On top of that, UCLA doesn’t get to the line a ton (17% of their points) and when they do they only make 61% which is one of the worst FT percentages in the nation. Compare that to Ohio State that does get to the line a lot with 24% of their points coming from the strip (23rd nationally) and when they do get there they make 74%. Ohio State made 47% of their shots and 23 FT’s here two weeks ago. If they can come anywhere close to those type of offensive numbers, we think this is an easy win for the Buckeyes. |
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12-20-18 | Ohio v. Purdue -16.5 | Top | 67-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Purdue (-16.5) over Ohio, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET The Boilers need a big win in the worst way and we think they get it tonight. They come into this game with just a 6-5 record but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation (4th rated strength of schedule). Purdue has already played 8 top 100 teams on the year and their losses have come at the hands of Michigan (4th in Ken Pom ratings), Virginia Tech (10), Florida State (16), Texas (30), and Notre Dame (54). All of those losses, with the exception of their game @ Michigan, were close and games that were undecided in the final minutes (losses by 1, 4, 6, and 8 points). This team could easily have a much better record. In their games vs opponents ranked outside the top 55, the Boilers are undefeated with their wins coming by 9, 21, 22, 33, and 38 points. Their other win came by 2 points vs Maryland who is currently rated 26th in the Ken Pom ratings. Thursday they face an Ohio team that is rated 156th and has played a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 100. That was a game vs 71st ranked Xavier and the Musketeers rolled them by 21 points. The Bobcats also lost to Loyola Marymount (108th) by 9 and South Florida (191st) by 27. They are playing their 2nd straight road game after squeaking by a 3-8 Detroit team 63-61 as 7-point favorites. The Boilers have struggled defensively this year vs a slew of good offensive teams, however they should get healthy on that end of the court in this game. Ohio is not a good shooting team and they are terrible from beyond the arc making just 29% (311th nationally). Purdue head coach Matt Painter has really stressed they must start improving on defense so an all out effort is expected here. Offensively Purdue should put up big numbers as they are averaging 80 PPG at home (4-0 record). This is a get well game for Boilermakers at home and we smell a rout. |
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12-19-18 | Cavs v. Hornets -13 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
ASA play on: Charlotte Hornets -13 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET – Scheduling has a lot to do with this one as the Cavs played last night in Indiana and are playing their 3rd game in four nights, 4th in six days. The Cavaliers are thin to begin with as several key players are out including K-Love and Tristan Thompson. Charlotte meanwhile is fresh having been off since the 15th. The Hornets are also coming off two straight losses, both at home so they’ll be focused here. The Cavs are 3-11 SU on the road this year with the 3rd worse average differential of minus -11.7PPG. Charlotte is 10-7 SU at home on the season with a plus differential of +4.4PPG. We also have a bit of revenge on our side here too as the last meeting on Nov 13th was a Cavs blowout win at home 113-89. Earlier in November the Hornets beat the Cavaliers at home 126-94. The Cavs are 3-5 SU on the road their last eight games and the five losses all came by double-digits. Charlotte will get a huge win at home tonight and catch Cleveland in a letdown situation after their upset last night in Indiana. |
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12-18-18 | USC -8 v. Santa Clara | Top | 92-102 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON USC -8 over Santa Clara, Tuesday at 10 PM ET Not much is being said about this talented USC team and that is in part because of their 5-5 record. However, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation losing to the likes of Texas Tech, Vandy, Oklahoma, Nevada, and TCU. Those 5 teams have a combined 45-4 record so nothing to be ashamed of for the Trojans. When they’ve played lower tier competition, similar to Santa Clara, they Trojans have dominated. Their 5 wins have all come by double digits. USC comes into this game having played 3 straight games against top 30 teams and lost all 3 so they are hungry for a win here. USC takes a huge step down in competition tonight facing a Santa Clara team that is 5-6 despite playing the 8th easiest schedule in the nation thus far. All of the Broncos 5 wins have come against teams currently rated 313th or lower and considering there are only 351 teams, you can imagine how poor some of those teams are. They did dominate two of those games vs Miss Valley State (ranked 350th) and Sonoma State (not ranked) but their other 3 wins vs that poor competition came by 7, 8, and 11 points. Not overly impressive. All but one of their 6 losses have come by double digits and their lone close loss was a 68-66 setback at home to Idaho State (ranked 250th). Santa Clara is one of the youngest teams in the nation with 4 underclassmen starting, including 2 freshmen. Not only that, 3 of their key reserves are also freshmen. USC, on the other hand, starts 4 upperclassmen and 6 of their top 8 players were key members of last year’s 24-12 team. The Trojans rolled over Santa Clara last year by a final score of 82-59 and they were in a similar spot losing 3 in a row entering that game all vs very good competition. USC led that one throughout and they bring back players that scored 51 points in that game while Santa Clara returns only 1 player that played significant minutes in that game. USC is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner in a must win spot. They should roll in this one. |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic. They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20. At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23. Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks. Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road. Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot. Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard. A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes. Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents. This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November. In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion. New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division. However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks. Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP. Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP. Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage. Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season. After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games. Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP). The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here. We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points. |
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12-17-18 | Arizona State v. Vanderbilt +1 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Vanderbilt +1 over Arizona State, Monday at 7:00 PM ET This is a very tough scheduling situation for a very young ASU team. The Devils played their first true road game on Saturday @ Georgia and now are again on the road @ Vandy just 48 hours later. ASU expended a lot of physical and emotional energy on Saturday coming from 18 points down to beat Georgia 76-74. The Sun Devils took their first lead of the game with under 3:00 minutes remaining. They only had 7 players log double digit minutes and the starters all played at least 26 minutes with 3 of them playing 33+ minutes. It’s going to be tough for this team, with 4 underclassmen in the starting line up, to come back at a peak level after that effort. Not only that, Arizona State has a HUGE home game on Saturday as they play host to Kansas. Coming off a big win and with that game on deck this young team might be glancing ahead. They are playing a very good Vanderbilt team tonight who’s rested having not played since December 5th. While we’re not a huge fan of 10+ days off continuity wise, we feel it will be a big advantage here for the Commodores facing a team on short rest. Vandy has shot very well at home this year hitting 51% of their shots while allowing opponents to make only 39%. They did lost their freshman point guard Darius Garland in late November, they’ve had nearly a full month and 3 games to adjust and they’ve done just that with their most recent game a 28 point win over Middle Tennessee State. These two met last year @ ASU and the Devils rolled to a 76-64 win so Vandy has had that to think about on their 10 days off leading up to this rematch. ASU has only one starter back from that game as this team has quite a different look from last season. We think Vanderbilt will surprise people and we have them tabbed as one of the top teams in the SEC. The situation heavily favors the Commodores and only have to win at home, they are the play. |
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12-16-18 | Kings +5.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-113 | Win | 101 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: # 523 Sacramento Kings +5.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 7PM ET - *Short analysis on football Sunday* The Kings are quietly going about a very solid season and exceeding preseason expectations. At 15-13 SU the Kings have the 9th best record in the West as of this writing. Dallas has also played well with a 15-12 SU record and have become more of a public team with Luka Doncic. Sacramento has an 8-7 SU road record with a positive point differential of +1.1PPG. They are just one of ten teams in the league with a positive road margin. Dallas was just a -4.5-point favorite at home a few nights ago against a Magic team that isn’t nearly as good as this Sacramento team. The Mavs have played three weak teams their last three games and have inflated numbers because of it. In their last five games the Kings have a +/- differential of +6.8PPG and have done it with 50% shooting as a team. The Mavs are -.2PPG their last five games and have allowed foes to hit 45% from the field. That’s a recipe for an underdog upset with the Kings. Sacto has covered 5 of the last six on this court. |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright! |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love this spot for the Colts. Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week. That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week. Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense. The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot. They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker. Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week. Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here. In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons. The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins. Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion. Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run. They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed. If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble. If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening. We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week. Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well. So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season. The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown. We’ll lay the field goal |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -119 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL? Baltimore? Maybe Chicago? Nope. The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP. That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least. The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7. They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG. Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play. That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense. The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards. Three turnovers were the key in that game. The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards! They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards. This team is undervalued right now because of that. QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games! The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball. While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games. The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game. Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them. Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season). It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility. The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today. Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away. |
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12-15-18 | Baylor v. Arizona -6.5 | Top | 58-49 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Arizona -6.5 over Baylor, Saturday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2 We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this Baylor team and this is it. The Bears are nowhere near the team they have been the past few seasons. They lost a number of key players off last year’s pretty average 19-15 team and they are step down from that squad this season. The Bears are just 5-3 despite playing the 325th rated strength of schedule. They have played one true road game (lost @ Wichita State) and haven’t played a game period since December 1st. That’s 2 full weeks without any game action which is an absolute negative for Baylor in our opinion. They have faced only one top 100 team this year (lost to Ole Miss on a neutral court) and many of their wins vs poor competition are not impressive. The Bears lost at home to Texas Southern (ranked 224th in Ken Pom ratings), beat South Dakota (ranked 174th) by 6, beat George Mason (ranked 162nd) by 11, and beat Prairie View A&M (ranked 274th) by just 11. Not an overly impressive resume for Baylor. Arizona will be the best team they’ve played this season. The Cats have had 6 days off (better than 14) since losing a tight game @ Alabama on Sunday (lost 76-73). Unlike Baylor, the Wildcats have played one of the tougher schedules so far this season (ranked 56th SOS). They are just 7-3, however their losses (besides Bama) have come at the hands of Gonzaga (ranked 6th in Ken Pom) and Auburn (ranked 9th). They have also beaten two top 100 teams (UConn on the road & Iowa State on neutral court). Arizona is 5-0 SU at home this year and rarely lose here at the McKale Center where they are 40-2 SU their last 42 games. They have shot very well at home this year (49%) and they are lights out from the FT line hitting almost 77% as a team (27th nationally). They should get plenty of free opportunities here as Baylor fouls and average of 21 times per game which is 295th nationally. The Bears are a poor shooting team from deep hitting only 30% from beyond the arc and they make only 67% of their FT’s. This should be a game Zona controls from start to finish and wins by double digits. |
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12-15-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: #513 L.A. Clippers +6.5 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9PM ET – Nobody or their brothers are betting the Clippers today but us and we’re totally fine with that. Scheduling wise, the situation clearly favors the Clippers as the Thunder are coming off a game last night in the higher altitude of Denver and playing their 3rd in four nights. OKC has some impressive numbers but they’ve played an EXTREMELY soft schedule of late that features the Bulls, Nets, Pistons, Hawks and Cavs in their last eight games. The Clippers are mired in a funk, but we expect them to snap out of it today. L.A. is coming a blowout loss in San Antonio on Thursday, so they have rest and motivation heading into tonight. The Clippers have not been an underdog of this size all season and that includes a game here earlier this season when they were +3. Grab the points with the Clippers who can win this outright. |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-13-18 | Lakers v. Rockets -5 | Top | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
ASA play on: #560 Houston Rockets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 8PM ET – Every game LeBron’s involved in there is value on the other side. With public money and tickets streaming in on L.A. the oddsmakers should be moving the number on this game but they aren’t. That tells me they like it where it is. These same two teams met in Los Angeles earlier this year and the Rockets were favored by 3.5 points on the road. Now they are laying a few more points at home. Houston and L.A. got into a riff that game when Rondo and CP3 got into a spat (pun intended). The records of these two teams are very misleading as the 17-10 Lakers have played the 25th easiest schedule in the NBA this season. They are just 3-3 SU their last six on the road. The 12-14 Rockets have played the 3rd toughest schedule and have a 6-1 SU home streak going with wins over Portland, Golden State and Indiana who are all better than the Lakers. Houston has covered 13 of the last eighteen meetings and they’ll get this home win by 10 or more. |
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12-11-18 | Georgia Southern v. UCF -9.5 | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Central Florida -9.5 over Georgia Southern, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET This is a bad match up for Georgia Southern. The Eagles are a bad 3-point shooting team (26% ranks them 334th nationally) that needs to be able to score inside the arc to have a chance. That will be a struggle tonight as UCF defends inside the arc as well as anyone in the country allowing just 40% which is 5th best nationally. Part of that is due to their length and shot blocking ability. The Knights are one of the tallest teams in the nation with 7’6 Tacko Fall manning the middle. Their block shot rate is almost 15% which ranks them in the top 25 nationally. They’ll be facing a GSU team that doesn’t have anyone in their rotation taller than 6’8. UCF has a HUGE edge defensively in this game ranking 13th nationally in defensive efficiency and 12th in the country in eFG% defense. Georgia Southern ranks 163rd and 223rd respectively in those 2 categories. The Knights are playing their 2nd straight home game while GSU is on the road for the 2nd time in 4 days after they upset Mercer on the road on Saturday making nearly 40% of their 3’s which as we stated above was an outlier. The Eagles have played only one team ranked in the top 100 this year and that was @ Arizona where they lost 100-70. For comparison’s sake, UCF is actually rated as a stronger team right now than Arizona ranking 44th nationally while the Wildcats sit at 48th. GSU wants to play fast and they’ll have trouble doing that here as UCF is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation. Look for UCF to slow this one down and frustrated an Eagle team that thrives one getting easy baskets. They won’t be able to do that tonight and we see Central Florida pulling away in the 2nd half for an easy win. The Knights have been a big time money maker at home going 37-16 ATS their last 53 games here. Add another spread win to the ledger tonight. Take UCF. |
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12-08-18 | Creighton v. Nebraska -7.5 | Top | 75-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day. The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season. They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year. Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week. It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch. The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots. However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc). After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday. This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot. The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally). Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep. They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game. In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win. Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points. The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year. They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas. This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one. |
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12-08-18 | Houston v. Oklahoma State -2.5 | Top | 63-53 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far. The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70. Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower. This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them. They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT. Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far. They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year. The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th. Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%). Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home. We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home. With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys. |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home. Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much. The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6. The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB. They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span. The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP. Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG). Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting. That’s going to be very tough in our opinion. The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles. He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him. That’s the recipe for success again tonight. Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win. Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6). Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different. If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright. |
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12-06-18 | Maryland v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Purdue -6.5 over Maryland, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET Purdue will be extra hungry for a win after losing 2 straight and 3 of their last 4. The Boilers 3 losses this year have come against top tier opponents all ranked in the top 17 according to Ken Pom. They lost by 6 to Va Tech (ranked 10) on a neutral court, lost by 1 @ Florida State (ranked 17), and were just beaten bad @ Michigan (ranked 5). Now back home after getting walloped by the Wolverines we expect an all out effort from the Boilers. They are 3-0 at home this year and Purdue has won 26 of their last 27 games at Mackey Arena. Not only do the Boilers win at home, most of the time they win handily with 17 of their last 26 home wins coming by double digits. Tonight they take on a very young Maryland team that ranks 350th in experience out of 351 teams. Of the Terps top 9 players in terms of minutes played, 5 are freshmen. They have played just one road game the entire season and that was way back on November 9th. Not only that, their opponent in that game was Navy so the game was @ Navy which is just 30 miles away from the Maryland campus. The young Terps won that game but let’s keep in mind Navy is currently ranked 321st (out of 351) and has just two wins this year vs Coppin State & Bryant. We think this Maryland team has some promise this year, however this is a terrible spot for a team that has played 6 straight home games. Most of their key contributors have never experience a venue like Mackey Arena and the Boilers are backed into a corner. Purdue was favored by 14 here last year in this match up and now they are laying half that number vs a Maryland team that overturned much of their roster. Lay it with Purdue. |
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12-04-18 | Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -3 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma -3 over Notre Dame, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET The Irish come into this game with a 6-1 record but they have played one of the easiest schedules in the nation thus far. Their strength of schedule ranks 320th nationally and they have yet to leave their home arena. The Sooners, on the other hand, will be more than ready for this setting as they have already played 2 true road games AND 3 neutral site games this season. They have also played the MUCH tougher schedule ranking 36th in SOS. Okie is 6-1 as well, but they have already played 4 top 100 teams and their lone loss was to #13 Wisconsin on a neutral site. The Sooners have been very good defensively ranking 28th nationally in defensive efficiency and 26th in eFG% defense. They are fantastic defending inside the arc allowing opponents to shoot just 37.7% (3rd nationally) and they do not send teams to the line as just 20% of their opponents points have come from the charity stripe (3rd best in the nation). That’s going to be a huge problem for a Notre Dame team that has relied heavily on getting to the line with 24% of their points coming from the stripe (39th nationally). No home cooking here for the Irish along with a team that doesn’t foul and defends outstanding inside the arc means they’ll have to hit their 3’s to have a shot. The problem is, they are making just 31% of their shots from beyond the arc this year (238th nationally) and those shaky numbers have all come at home. Now they must try and find the range in a tough shooting venue, Madison Square Garden. Oklahoma is a veteran team with 4 upperclassmen in the starting lineup and they are well prepared for this spot. We think the Irish, with 3 new starters, will take some time to gel this year and we don’t expect that to happen in their first game away from home this season. Lay the small number with Oklahoma. |
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12-03-18 | Rutgers +13 v. Wisconsin | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Rutgers +13 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8:00 PM ET This is a tough spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a huge road win on Friday night @ Iowa and we have a feeling it will be tough for them to play at a peak level physically and emotionally in this game. Rutgers is off a home loss to Michigan State on Friday night (we were on MSU) but we have to say we’ve been impressed with the Scarlet Knights early in the season. That was a rough spot for them as they had just beaten a solid Miami FL on the road a few days earlier and were catching the Spartans off a tight loss @ Louisville. We thought MSU would respond well and they did but Rutgers hung in until the end losing by 11 as an 8-point dog. These are two very slow paced teams and the total is set in the 125 range so a low scoring game is expected. With a lower number of possessions, that will make it very tough for Wisconsin to win this one going away. On top of that, Rutgers plays outstanding defense so nothing will be easy here for the Badgers. The Knights are allowing just 59 PPG on only 38% shooting by their opponents. They rank 19th nationally in defensive efficiency. This team is also very solid on the boards and were outrebounded for the first time this year on Friday night vs Michigan State (only by 5). Third year head coach Steve Pikiell has this team headed in the right direction. They’ve played Wisconsin very tough the last few years winning at home by 4 last year and losing in OT here at the Kohl Center 2 seasons ago. The Badgers have a huge game on deck with state rival Marquette so this is a true sandwich type game for Wisconsin. UW is very solid this year and they’ll win this game, we just don’t see them pulling way for a decisive victory. Rutgers plus the points here. |
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos. The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road. On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win. With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances. They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one. Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score. Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game. We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation. Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now. They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG. Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points. The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders. Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year. In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits. LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here. Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot. The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center. We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers. |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday. |
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11-30-18 | Michigan State -8 v. Rutgers | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -8 over Rutgers, Friday at 6:00 PM ET After back to back impressive wins over UCLA by 20 and Texas by 10, the Spartans were upended in OT on Tuesday night @ Louisville. MSU (-4.5) led with under 2:00 minutes remaining in the game but blew it and lost in OT. Sparty dominated most of the key stats hitting 47% of their shots to just 39% for Louisville along with destroying the Cards on the boards 45 to 28. So how did they lose? The officials had a big say in that as they sent Louisville to the charity stripe 40 times and they outscored MSU by 16 points at the line. Expect the Spartans to bounce back and play very well here after that loss. They catch Rutgers coming off an upset road win @ Miami 57-54 on Wednesday. That means the Scarlet Knights only have 48 hours before they tip off in this one while MSU has a full extra day. It was a big win for the Knights but overall their schedule has been ultra light facing just 2 teams ranked inside the top 160 this year. One was a win over Miami, the other a 20 point home loss to St Johns. MSU, on the other hand, has already faced the likes of Kansas, UCLA, Louisville, and Texas this season. Rutgers offense is stagnant at best ranking 270th in offensive efficiency and they’ve been held to 65 points or less in 4 straight games. Facing an MSU defense that allows 37% from the field and ranks 18th in defensive efficiency we expect another poor performance from Rutgers offensively. Sparty, on the other hand, has scored at least 78 points in every game this season. Rutgers is going to have a tough time keeping up in this game. The Spartans are 6-0 in this series with 5 of those 6 wins coming by double digits. MSU off a loss is a solid play here. |
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11-29-18 | Warriors +9 v. Raptors | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: #501 Golden State +9 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET - Yeah, anytime you get the World Champs plus points it’s worth an immediate look. Granted, the Warriors are without Steph Curry and Draymond Green but they still have a cast of players that make them one of the best in the league. The Warriors are one of just nine teams in the NBA with a positive road differential at +1.9PPG. Sure, they have lost 5 road contests this season but those L’s came against the Spurs, Mavs, Rockets, Clippers and Denver. Toronto is good. Very good and they have a home point differential of +9.5PPG which is 4th best in the NBA BUT that has come against a schedule that is 84-106 SU overall. When the Warriors were at full strength last year in the Finals they were favored in Cleveland and now they are catching nearly double-digits in Toronto. These two teams are nearly identical in offensive efficiency but the Raptors do hold an advantage when it comes to DEFF but Golden State has played the tougher schedule. Don’t be fooled by the Raptors last three home wins which came against 7-13 Miami, 8-13 Washington and 7-16 Knicks. This is a whole different level of team in Golden State who can easily win this outright. Our last point is this, the Raptors were favored by 12 and 10 points against the Heat and Wizards and they are laying a similar number here? This will be close! |
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11-28-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans -6 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* play on: #716 New Orleans Pelicans -6 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET - Several factors favor the Pelicans here including revenge as these same two teams squared off in Washington on Saturday with the Wiz winning by 10. A big key to that win though was the absence of Anthony Davis for the Pelicans. It’s extremely hard to replace his 27PPG and 12.8RPG as he’s clearly one of the elite players in the entire NBA. Davis and the Pels have lost 4 straight games, 3 on the road and most recently at home to the Celtics, so expect a concentrated effort by the Pelicans at home tonight. New Orleans is 8-2 SU at home this season with an average point differential of +4.9PPG while 4 of their last five home wins have been decided by double-digits. Washington has been horrendous on the road this year with a 2-7 SU record and an average differential of minus -12.1PPG which is 3rd worst in the NBA. What makes matters worse for the Wizards is that only three of those 9 road games were at playoff teams from a year ago. In their road games against comparable opponents the Wiz have been blown out this season and with their chemistry at an all time low, we don’t expect a great effort here. |
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11-27-18 | NC State v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Wisconsin -8 over NC State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 NC State comes into Madison with a perfect 6-0 record, however to say they have taken it easy in their early season schedule would be putting gin mildly. This team has played the EASIEST schedule in Division 1 college basketball thus far (SOS ranked 353rd). They have played all 6 games at home and their opponents have been Mount St Mary’s, Maryland Eastern Shore, UNC Ashville, Maine, St Peter’s, and Mercer. Four of those six opponents are ranked below 300 and the best team they’ve played, Mercer, is ranked 175th. That game was on Saturday and went to the wire with NC State holding on for a 78-74 win. Wisconsin will be much more prepared for this caliber of opponent. They have already beaten Xavier (on the road), Oklahoma (neutral site), Stanford (neutral site) with their lone loss coming by 7 points at the hands of #3 Virginia on a neutral court. Despite their tough schedule the Badger’s wins have all been fairly convincing with their closest coming by 9 points @ Xavier. They topped Oklahoma by 20 & Stanford by 16. Wisconsin’s defense has been outstanding ranking 7th in nationally in adjusted efficiency. They have allowed less than 60 points in 4 of their 6 games. They’ll make it very tough on an NC State offense that has put up lots of points (90 PPG) but hasn’t played a defense ranked inside the top 171 in efficiency. Offensively the Badgers have shot the ball very well from deep (42% from beyond the arc) and with the top post presence in the country inside in Ethan Happ, they are tough to defend. They rank 19th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. NC State has not faced an offense ranked higher than 180 and 4 of the 6 offenses they’ve faced are ranked 336th or lower which means the bottom 17 in all of college basketball. UW has been home from their Bahamas tourney since Friday night so they’ve had plenty of time to rest and get ready for this one. As we mentioned the Wolfpack are playing their first road game of the season and they are a putrid 7-20 ATS their last 27 away from home. The trend continues on Tuesday and the Badgers roll up a double digit win at home. |
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11-25-18 | Steelers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week. They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16. That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs. Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted. Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week. Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle. They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston. The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980. On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents. These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games. We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses. The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit. Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion. These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4. Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above. That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be. The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year. They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road. Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points. Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions. Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit). When they’ve had to play better teams away from home, they’ve lost. These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those. We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday. |
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11-24-18 | Colorado -4.5 v. Air Force | Top | 93-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -4.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET The Buffs are coming off a 70-64 road loss @ San Diego on Tuesday (we were on San Diego -4) and have had a few days to recoup for this trip. It’s definitely not a tough travel spot for CU as Air Force is just 97 miles away. In their loss @ USD on Tuesday, the Buffs played fairly well against an experienced team that had 20 wins a year ago. CU led by 1 late in the game but were unable to hold on. Turnovers and rebounding were a problem in that game as we thought they might be. However, today they play an Air Force team that was just 12-19 last year and has started this season 2-3. The Falcons are not a great rebounding team (245th nationally in offensive rebounding) and they do not create turnovers (17% forced TO rate which is 252nd nationally) so those aspects shouldn’t be a problem today for Colorado. AF has not played a team ranked in the top 150 yet this season and even so they have 3 losses (vs High Points, UMBC, and Texas State). Despite their easy schedule to date, they’ve turned the ball over at an alarming rate (26.5% which is 347th nationally) and they are not an efficient offense (272nd nationally). Despite their loss @ San Diego, Colorado coach Tad Boyle was very pleased with his team’s defense as they allowed the Toreros to make just 37% of their shots. They should be able to shut down this struggling AF offense who is averaging just 63 PPG vs teams not named Johnson & Wales (yes they played that team and that is one of AF’s win). Colorado won this meeting by 12 last and has won 8 straight in this series (all but 1 by at least 7 points). Colorado gets the cover on the road here. |
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11-24-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will. |
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11-23-18 | Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -6.5 | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Old Dominion -6.5 over Northern Iowa, Friday at 7:00 PM ET These two just played on Monday so we get a quick revenge spot for ODU. They faced off in St Thomas Virgin Islands just 5 days ago and UNI pulled off the 54-53 win as a 2.5 point underdog. The Monarchs had a nightmare offensive performance in that game making only 32% of their shots including 7 of 24 from beyond the arc. ODU controlled the boards with 13 offensive rebounds (just 2 for UNI) and because that they attempted 61 shots to just 49 for the Panthers. Because they shot so poorly it didn’t matter. However, now they are at home for the first time since November 6th and we expect a much better offensive game from the Monarchs. They should control the boards again and this team those extra opportunities will turn into points. We also don’t expect Northern Iowa to make 11 of their 25 shots from beyond the arc (44%) as they did in that first game. All of that and UNI still only won by a single point. ODU has struggled shooting but they’ve been on the road for all but one game. Their defense has been a constant allowing only one of their five opponents to top 56 points. This team returns 4 of their top 7 players from a team that was 25-7 a year ago. They’ve won 15 of their last 17 home games and will be extra motivated here in this quick revenge spot. Northern Iowa played in the Virgin Islands on Friday, Saturday, and Monday just as ODU did, however they are back on the road again in a tough scheduling spot. They have also won just ONCE in their last 13 true road games. Lay it as Old Dominion rolls. |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET Brutal spot here for Chicago. They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road. Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start. The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota. If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB. We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway. His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road. Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2. They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game. Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here. All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth. After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina. They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago. That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit. So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win. |
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11-20-18 | Colorado v. San Diego -4 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON San Diego -4 over Colorado, Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET on ESPNU This is a huge prime time game for USD on a stage they normally don’t get. This is a home game vs a Pac 12 team and the game is on ESPNU. Those factors alone should bring a top notch effort and performance from the Toreros. That is obviously not the only reason we like San Diego here. First of all they are a very experienced team with 3 seniors and 1 junior in the starting lineup. All 4 were key performers on last year’s 20 win team. The Toreros are the 6th most experienced team in the nation so not only the starters but all rotation players as well have been together for a number of years. They come into this game with a 3-1 record and their only loss coming by just 3 points @ Washington, who was picked by some to win the Pac 12 this year and no worse than 3rd in that league by most experts. It was a game that San Diego led by 9 in the second half when leading scorer Isaiah Pineiro (20 PPG) got into foul trouble and had to sit out 10+ minutes giving the Huskies an opportunity to make a run. While USD is playing their 5th game of the season, Colorado has only played twice this year vs weak competition. Their most recent game they were favored by 17 vs Nebraska Omaha at home and struggled to win by just 4 points. The Buffs are on the road for the first time this year and they have not been a money maker away from home going just 18-40-1 ATS their last 59 road games. They were just 1-10 SU in true road games last season. The Buffs also must replace 3 of their top 6 scorers from a year ago. San Diego beat Colorado on the road last year 69-59 and basically bring back the same team so we expect a similar outcome tonight. |
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11-19-18 | Thunder -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
ASA play on: #517 Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Sacramento Kings, 10:00 PM ET - We like the situation, the number and everything else that goes into for a play on the Thunder tonight. The Sacramento Kings are one of the four to five worst teams in the NBA and not much better than Phoenix. The reason we bring that up is the fact that the Thunder just played in Phoenix and were favored by -5 points. The Kings also recently faced Minnesota at home and were a +2-point underdog and the Thunder are better than the dysfunctional T’Wolves. The big advantage the Thunder have here is defensively. OKC is the 3rd most efficient defense in the NBA while the Kings are 21st worst. The Thunder also hold an advantage when it come to offensive efficiency. After losing four straight games to start the season, the Thunder have quietly won 10 of their last eleven games. They also have the 6th best margin of victory in the NBA at plus +5.4PPG. Conversely, the Kings are 8-8 SU on the season with a negative differential of minus -2.6PPG. Yes, the Thunder have the Warriors on deck but they won’t look past a Kings team that embarrassed them earlier this season 131-120. With or without Westbrook we take the road team here by double-digits. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +2.5 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog! |
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one. |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers. It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week. Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel. They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week. That is as tough a schedule as you could map out. Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season. They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL. Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31. Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST! Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL). That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game. Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s. It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s. On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season). Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights. They are just 2-8 SU this year. GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks. Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above. The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This is an absolute must win for the Packers. They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots. They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes. The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL. They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17. The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game. Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense. The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG. Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs. They did not score an offensive TD. With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion. The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game. Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games. The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games. All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points. Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points. The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team. We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s. |
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11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story. Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards! That’s it. They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense. Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference. The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards. Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week. The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home. The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was. This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits. The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012. Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year. On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa). Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September. Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago? Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky? We’ll take it. |
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11-10-18 | Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215 |
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11-08-18 | Bucks v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Play on: #708 Golden State Warriors -5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10:30PM ET – Yes, we love and respect what the Bucks have done this year and feel they are a legitimate contender in the East BUT only Boston (because of their depth) has the slightest chance to beat Golden State this year in the Finals. Milwaukee has gotten off to a great start but recently have lost their last two road games at Boston and at Portland. They had played a pretty soft schedule prior to that with road wins over Charlotte and Minnesota. Golden State is well, Golden State and this is a statement game for them at home against the upstart Bucks and Giannis. The Warriors are incredibly deep and won’t miss a beat without Draymond Green tonight. GST has the 2nd best home differential in the NBA this year at +15.5PPG which is slightly higher than their last four year average of +13.4PPG. Let’s consider these numbers. The Warriors were favored by -11.5 and -12.5 in two home games of the Finals last year against the Cavs. Last regular season they were favored by -4 points against this same Bucks team and were resting Curry and Thompson! In regular season games last season against the three other best teams in the East the Warriors were 11-point chalks against Boston, -12.5 versus Toronto and -13.5 against Philly. The value on this is just too good to pass up. Play the Warriors who are 11-4 ATS at home when favored by 6 or less points since 2014. |
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11-04-18 | Texans v. Broncos | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH Hmmm? We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored. Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game. The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49. They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points. Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore. The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home. Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT. The home team should have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders). They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL). That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league. By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking. That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground. The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home. Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th. Lay the small number with Denver. |
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11-04-18 | Bucs +7 v. Panthers | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB. Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us. Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3. Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff. Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season. Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16. He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG. The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend. Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore. They played very well but were an underdog in that game. Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role. This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less. The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer. The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season). With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points. We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset. Take the points. |
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11-03-18 | Penn State v. Michigan -12 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406 |
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10-28-18 | 49ers -1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down. They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB. He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts. Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least. They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses. Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team. Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats. In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10! That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo. San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively. We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games. Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid. The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year. They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season. They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season. That’s bad folks. While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray. They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded. We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team. The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him. We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday. |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh. The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season. They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati. They also dominated those games on the stat sheet. They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season. In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in. Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win. Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games. They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks. They look like they are running out of gas to us. They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards. Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland. Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game. The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense). The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD. The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping. Lay it. |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180 |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162 |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5 Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away. |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points. |
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10-18-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement. Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years. Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game? Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here. New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night. While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date. They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense). To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks. Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6. The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions. QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s. We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one. The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense. We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS). They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010. KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them. The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots. Lay the small number with New England. |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year. They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31. IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season. Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude. They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets. The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010. They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday. While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home. They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter. They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team. You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more. The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8. After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3. Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL. That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC. This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold. The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look. People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home. Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards. It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game. Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL. NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday. Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver. The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night. Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses. Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT). The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid. They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game. Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss. He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games. We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday. |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -6.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156 |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re getting points with the better team here. Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme. We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game. They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories. Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed. KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them. While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst. They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency. The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans. They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense. We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here. KC is overvalued right now because of their offense. They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense. They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense. The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP. This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot. We’ll make sure we do. Take the Jags here. |
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10-06-18 | Iowa -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 48-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387 |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points. That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th. The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season. On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one. The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa. However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense. The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game. Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season. They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday. Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense. Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less. The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year. Take the points. |
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09-30-18 | Browns v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg). The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141 |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay. This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record. The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo. They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite. A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck. The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over. Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan. They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes. The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits. Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6. The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3. Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss. They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe. Take the points here. |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL. Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points. Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win. Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games. Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster. Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts. A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense. Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games. Expect a big day from him. The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game. They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year. Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread. Baltimore by a TD or more in this one. |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392 |
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09-15-18 | Washington -4.5 v. Utah | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205 |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | Top | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout. |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393 |
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08-12-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET |
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08-09-18 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-05-18 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET |
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07-21-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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07-15-18 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them. It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*. BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game. The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points. |
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06-06-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:10 ET |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday. |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points. |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7 less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers. Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss. |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 101 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET. Contrary to what you might think about Philly climbing back into this series, it’s not going to happen. Again, we’ve beat this horse to death, but Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is just better than anyone else. Stevens will adjust Philly’s move with T.J. McConnell who scored 19 in Game 4 and nullify the Sixers advantage there. If you are a ‘value’ bettor, then you’re doubting this wager as the C’s were +4.5 points at home in Game 1 but the reality is the line tonight STILL isn’t where it should be as the Celtics should be a 4-point chalk. Boston has not lost at home in the post season and are on a current 11-1 ATS streak at home. On the year the C’s are 33-14 SU at home with an average point differential of +5.4PPG. Boston has won 5 straight games at home when coming off a loss in their previous game. Boston is the better team with the better coach and playing at home. Just win! |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Game 3 @New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Friday 8PM ET - Yes, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and clearly adds another dimension for the Golden State but we really like the Pelicans body of work down the stretch of the regular season and the first round of these playoffs. Let's not forget the Pelicans roasted a solid Blazers team in four games and had won five straight to end the regular season, all by double digits. New Orleans is 8-2 SU their last 10 games with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Anthony Davis is GREAT and is arguably the best player in the NBA right now to build a franchise around. The Pelicans have also gotten fantastic play out of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. In Game 2 the Pels lost by just 5-points and they only attempted 9 free throws compared to Golden State going 22 of 27. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even with Steph Curry (who is not 100%) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a road point differential of +4.4PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from +7.49PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 18-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-18 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. New Orleans at home this season had a positive home differential of +1.4PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points! |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We were a perfect 3-0 with our Side wagers on the Cavs/Pacers series and are extremely dialed in on the Cavs right now and just how good they are. The answer is, they're certainly not the best team in the East and will have a very tough time advancing past this round. LeBron James has carried this team and logged a ton of minutes in the round one series against the Pacers. The Cavs got some very favorable calls in Game 7 against the Pacers and won't get those same calls in Game 1 of round 2. Statistically, the Raptors were the second best overall team in the NBA over the course of the regular season. They were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency, Houston was the only team better. Let's look inside the numbers for this game. The Cavaliers are 24-24 SU this season against all the other playoff teams in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.1PPG. Cleveland was 7-16 SU on the road against other playoff teams and those 16 losses came by an average of 12PPG. Toronto on the other hand was 27-20 SU against other playoff teams this season with a positive differential of +4.2PPG. The Raptors were 18-6 SU at home versus other playoff teams this season and the wins came by an average of 13PPG. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Raptors were 5th in DEFF this season while the Cavs were 29th. Those numbers support the glaring difference between these two teams currently. Even though the Cavs have owned the Raptors with an 8-2 SU record the last ten meetings, the situation clearly warrants a bet on Toronto. The Raptors were 37-7 SU at home this season with a +10.4 point differential. Lay the points in Game 1. |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET - We are not sold on the Warriors yet after their first round series win over the short-handed, older Spurs. Golden State limped into the post season and didn't really play 'that well' against the Spurs. Conversely, the Pelicans totally dismantled the Blazers in a 4-game sweep and have now won 9 straight games, including wins over playoff teams like San Antonio and Golden State. Yes, everyone knows how great Anthony Davis is but the big difference for the Pelicans has been the play of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. He's also been fantastic defensively and could be used in a matchup with Klay Thompson. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even without Steph Curry (who MAY play tonight) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a home point differential of +7.6PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from 15.9PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 17-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-17 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points |
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ASA ALL Sports Top Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-01-19 | Marquette v. St. John's -1.5 | Top | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Bulls v. Raptors -10 | Top | 89-95 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Browns +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -14 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
12-29-18 | Spurs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 122-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
12-29-18 | Oregon v. Boise State +2 | Top | 62-50 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
12-28-18 | Nets v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 87-100 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
12-27-18 | Lakers +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 116-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
12-26-18 | Wolves -4 v. Bulls | Top | 119-94 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Ohio State -6 v. UCLA | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show |
12-20-18 | Ohio v. Purdue -16.5 | Top | 67-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Cavs v. Hornets -13 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
12-18-18 | USC -8 v. Santa Clara | Top | 92-102 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Arizona State v. Vanderbilt +1 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Kings +5.5 v. Mavs | Top | 120-113 | Win | 101 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -119 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Baylor v. Arizona -6.5 | Top | 58-49 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
12-13-18 | Lakers v. Rockets -5 | Top | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
12-11-18 | Georgia Southern v. UCF -9.5 | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
12-08-18 | Creighton v. Nebraska -7.5 | Top | 75-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
12-08-18 | Houston v. Oklahoma State -2.5 | Top | 63-53 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
12-06-18 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
12-06-18 | Maryland v. Purdue -6.5 | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
12-04-18 | Notre Dame v. Oklahoma -3 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
12-03-18 | Rutgers +13 v. Wisconsin | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
11-30-18 | Michigan State -8 v. Rutgers | Top | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
11-29-18 | Warriors +9 v. Raptors | Top | 128-131 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
11-28-18 | Wizards v. Pelicans -6 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
11-27-18 | NC State v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Steelers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Colorado -4.5 v. Air Force | Top | 93-56 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
11-24-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
11-23-18 | Northern Iowa v. Old Dominion -6.5 | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
11-20-18 | Colorado v. San Diego -4 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
11-19-18 | Thunder -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
11-18-18 | Vikings +2.5 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
11-10-18 | Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
11-08-18 | Bucks v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Texans v. Broncos | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
11-04-18 | Bucs +7 v. Panthers | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
11-03-18 | Penn State v. Michigan -12 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
10-28-18 | 49ers -1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
10-21-18 | Panthers +5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
10-18-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
10-14-18 | Colts +2 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -6.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
10-06-18 | Iowa -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 48-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
09-30-18 | Browns v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
09-15-18 | Washington -4.5 v. Utah | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | Top | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
08-12-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
08-09-18 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
08-05-18 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
07-21-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
07-15-18 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
06-08-18 | Warriors -4 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
06-06-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
05-20-18 | Rockets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 101 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 33 m | Show |