ASA 10* play on: #574 Minnesota Timberwolves -7 over Washington Wizards, 8PM ET – Are you asking yourself, why are the T’Wolves favored by 7-points in this matchup? We feel the number isn’t high enough and our computer analytics predict a double-digit win by Minnesota. Despite a disappointing overall season, the Wolves are 21-10 SU at home with a +/- differential at home of +5.4PPG (12th in NBA). They have some solid home wins of late over OKC by 11, Sacramento by 7, Houston by 10, LA Clippers by 10 and a 1-point loss to Denver. The Wolves home/road dichotomies are drastically different which is why they are an attractive bet here. The other part of the equation here is Washington on the road and playing without rest on the road for the second consecutive night. The Wiz are 9-25 SU away from home this season with a +/- differential of MINUS -8.3PPG WHICH IS 4TH WORST in the NBA. The Wolves will put up plenty of points here against a Wizards defense that is 28th in the NBA in road shooting percentage defense against and last in the league in points allowed per game away from home at 119.1PPG. This is also a quick revenge game for the Wolves as they were just beat in Washington by the Wizards 135-121 earlier this month. Washington is just 2-8 ATS the last 10 here and it gets a loss worse after tonight. Lay it with Minnesota.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas -7 over Baylor, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

Kansas is coming off an embarrassing performance @ Oklahoma earlier this week (we were on the Sooners in that game) and we expect a huge performance in their home finale on Saturday.  We weren’t at all surprised by the 81-68 loss @ Oklahoma as it was a must win for the Sooners in order to potentiall lock in their NCAA bid while KU has simply been a poor road team this year.  However, the Jayhawks have been very good at bouncing back at home after a road loss.  They have lost 6 times on the road this year in games that have been followed up by a home game.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in those games.  While the Jayhawks have had their problems on the road this year, they have been perfect at home with a 15-0 record.  They are shooting nearly 50% at home while allowing their opponents to make only 38% of their shots.  9 of their 15 home wins have come by double digits. Going back further this KU team has won 83 of their last 87 home games with 65% of those wins coming by at least 10 points.  We’ve felt for most of the season this Baylor team was playing above their heads.  They current sit in 4th place in the Big 12 with a 10-7 record, however the power ratings have the Bears rated as the 7th best team in this 10 team conference.  They have started to come back to the pack as of late which we figured would happen.  They are just 4-5 over their last 9 games and their last 4 games have been unimpressive.  They are coming into this one off a loss @ Kansas State (expected) and a home loss to Oklahoma State, the 2nd worst team in the Big 12.  Prior to that they struggled at home with West Virginia (trailed by 7 in the 2nd half but came back to win vs the worst team in the league) and Texas (won by 1 point in OT).  The Bears aren’t playing very well and they are walking into a hornet’s nest here.  When these two met @ Baylor earlier this season KU was favored by -3.5 and won by 5 despite taking 31 fewer shot attempts!  KU has won 9 of the last 10 in this series and we look for a 10+ point win in their home finale.

ASA play on: #555 Utah Jazz -4.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET – We are going contrarian here, as we like to do, and bet against the hot Grizzlies who have covered 3 straight. In fact, we just bet on Memphis the other night when they covered against Portland but let’s examine that game which has solid indicators for our bet against them here. Portland was wrapping up a brutal stretch of 7 road games and were favored by -5.5 at Memphis. The Blazers led by 16-points in the game but ran out of gas late and Memphis grabbed the upset home win. Now Utah comes into this game, who we rank higher in our metrics, laying less than Portland was the other night. Plus, Memphis is coming off a satisfying win over Portland and in for a letdown. Memphis 16-17 SU at home on the season with an average differential of plus + .1PPG which is 22nd worse in the NBA. Their home offensive efficiency numbers are awful as they average just 1.051 points per possession – last in the NBA! Utah is 16-16 SU on the road this year but they have the 7th best road differential in the NBA at plus +.7PPG. The Jazz shoot it well on the road this year with the 9th best road field goal percentage at 46.4%. The Jazz have recently beat a hot New Orleans team on the road by 10, won in Denver by 7, lost in OT by 1 at OKC (one of best home courts in NBA) and lost by 7 at Golden State. Now they step WAY down in talent to face a ‘fat’ Grizzlies team. Memphis is 2-3 SU their last five at home with the wins against Portland (tough spot) and the fading Lakers. They lost to Chicago, the Clippers by 6 and San Antonio. Utah wins this game by double digits!

ASA play on: #547 Indiana Pacers +10.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET. Well, we hit two more NBA plays last night which adds to our incredible NBA 84% winning streak of 21-4. It just goes to show how dialed in our math model is right now. Tonight, the numbers are crunched, and we like the double-digits with Indiana over Milwaukee. Yes, we are aware of the Bucks average point differential which is best in the NBA at +9.1PPG overall, +12.8PPG at home but this is not a good spot for them. Milwaukee has lost two straight, which hasn’t happened all season, and most bettors will look at this game and say it’s a ‘bounce’ back situation for a good team. But we are contrarian here and see another angle to this game which is fatigue and pressure is starting to get to a young Bucks team. The Bucks have shot under 39% in their last two games and now face a Pacers team that is 5th in the NBA in defensive FG% against at 44.8%. The numbers are starting to catch up to Milwaukee which is evident in their 1-3 ATS run as a home double-digit chalk. Speaking of double-digits, the Pacers haven’t been a dog of 10 or more points this season. Indiana has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +.8PPG with a 17-14 SU road record. The Bucks own the best defensive efficiency number in the league, but Indiana is second and more than capable of keeping this game close throughout. Grab the points with the Pacers!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UCF -2 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE YEAR

UCF should be extra motivated here as they’ve won 6 of their last 7 games and their only loss came @ Cincinnati by a final score of 60-55.  The Knights actually led that game 40-32 with 11:00 minutes remaining and the Bearcats made late push for the 5 points win, their largest lead of the 2nd half.  Now back at home with huge momentum coming off a win @ Houston (top rated team in the league) we like UCF to play very well tonight.  The 22-6 Golden Knights are 14-2 this year at home with their lone conference loss here coming vs 1st place Houston which they turned around and beat over the weekend, as we mentioned, in their revenge game.  This team averages 77 PPG at home while holding their opponents to just 65 points on 38% shooting.  Long term they’ve been a great home money maker with a 25-11-1 ATS record over their last 37 games here at CFE Arena.  Cincy is currently tied for first place in the AAC with a 14-2 record.  However they’ve been skating on thin ice in our opinion and they are overdue for a loss which comes tonight.  Seven of their last eight wins have come by 5 points or less.  They are going to the wire in nearly every game and while they have been winning those games, their time runs out tonight.  In their game vs UCF a few weeks ago the Knights hit 9 of their 20 three point attempts for 45%.  That’s been a problem with the Cincy defense.  They are 11th in the AAC (out of 12 teams) at defending the 3-point line.  40% of their opponent’s points in league play come from beyond the arc which is the most in the AAC.  That’s will be a problem tonight as UCF has been shooting the ball very well hitting 40% from 3-point land over their last 7 games.  This is the Knights final home game so emotions should be running high for their 4 seniors in the rotation.  A win here pulls them to within 1-game of Cincinnati in the standings with 1 to go.  We expect a huge effort from UCF and predict a win and cover tonight.

ASA  play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – We’ve said this exact same thing the past two games that we’ve played against the Lakers, but the LeBron charade is pretty much over. He is solely responsible for the Lakers demise this season. He clearly doesn’t have the leadership skills to command the respect of his teammates and it’s always been a matter of time before his teams see through him. I’m not saying he’s not one of the most gifted players in the league as he is. But his ego has gotten the best of him and it’s infected the rest of the team, coaching staff and organization. And now that he’s quit playing hard for the season this team is obviously done. It’s been easy money betting against Los Angeles, so we’ll do it again. According to our rankings we have Denver as a top 5 team in the league with an offensive efficiency rating that is 3rd best in the league, a defensive efficiency that is 11th. Even on the road they have solid efficiency numbers ranking in the top half of the league in both OEFF and DEFF despite a .500 overall road record. The Nuggets have the 7th best point differential in the league right now in their past five games at +4.4PPG. The Lakers are in a free-fall with a 10-20 SU record their last 30 games, 1-5 their last six. Since the return of LeBron from injury the Lakers defense has been one of the worst in the league. In their last five games the Lakers are allowing 1.143 points per possession which is 22nd in the NBA and have a negative differential of minus -5PPG. Denver comes into this game having lost three straight and will play at a peak level against the high-profile Lakers. Denver by a dozen or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -1.5 over Boise State, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

We were on New Mexico at home on Saturday as they rolled over Colorado State 77-65.  We’re right back on the Lobos at home here.  We know the Lobos have been patiently waiting for this game after what happened in this match up last year.  New Mexico lost that game at home 73-71 and blew a 13 point lead with just 8:00 minutes remaining in the process.  Boise took their first lead of the entire second half with just 16 seconds remaining in the game.  The game ended with a near melee as players from both teams were pushing, shoving, and shouting at each other.  The Lobos were clearly upset with the way they blew that game and now they get their shot at revenge.  They are playing a Boise team that is clearly in a free fall.  The Broncos have now lost 7 of their last 8 games with their lone win coming vs San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the nation (342nd nationally out of 351).  On top of their struggles, this is a very tough spot for Boise.  They played @ UNLV on Saturday which was a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost at home earlier this year to the Rebs.  Boise blew an 11 point 2nd half lead in that game on Saturday with UNLV taking their first lead with 1:13 remaining in the game which ended up in OT where the Rebels won 85-81.  That was a very tough loss for Boise and now they are on the road just again just a few days later in a very tough spot to play.  New Mexico is playing their final home game and these two teams are tied at 6-10 in MWC play.  They are one of the tallest teams in the nation (14th in average height) and their head coach Paul Weir has really been focusing on dominating the boards as of late.  The Lobos have done just that as they are +43 on the boards over their last 5 games.  They should do some damage there again on Wednesday against a Bronco team that is -33 on the boards over their last 5 games.  That should lead to extra opportunities and simply wear down a BSU team that looks physically and mentally tired.  We like New Mexico to win their home finale.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA +6 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET

These two met one time this season and we remember it well.  We were on Western KY at home favored by 6.  We watched the entire game very closely and to be honest we really had very little chance to win.  UTSA led for much of the 2nd half and in fact Western’s biggest lead of the 2nd half was 2 points.  The Hilltoppers largest lead in regulation was just 7 points and that was because they began the game on a 7-0 run.  After that, they trailed for most of the game.  WKY came from behind in the final minute, were able to push the game to OT where the won 96-88 covering by 2 points.  The Toppers won by just 8 in OT despite being +12 makes at the FT line.  We admittedly picked up a lucky win but now we flip the script and apply what we learned in that game and we side with UTSA here.  Obviously the Roadrunners will be very motivated here and they know they can play toe to toe with WKY on the road.  Western is solid but they simply do not blow teams out.  They have 11 CUSA wins and only 2 of those came by double digits and those wins were against UTEP and Charlotte, the two lowest rated teams in the conference.  Their average score in CUSA play is 72-70.  On the flip side, UTSA is 10-6 in league play and none of their losses have come by more than 10 points.  They can put points on the board (78 PPG in CUSA play) and they are #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency.   The Roadrunners have 2 of the best guards in the conference which can carry them a long way in the post-season.  Jackson leads the league at 23 PPG and his backcourt mate Wallace averages 21 PPG.  In their only meeting this year those 2 put up 72 points vs WKY.  A win here puts UTSA into 3rd place in the conference a half game above Western KY.  We think this one goes to the wire just as the first meeting did and we like the points this time around.

ASA play on: #532 Detroit Pistons -5 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – We like the situation here to bet the home team Pistons for several reasons.  Minnesota is coming off a high-profile game last night against a division rival the OKC Thunder and are also playing their 3rd game in four nights. This will also be the Wolves 4th road game in their last five, 6th in their last eight. The Wolves are just 2-7 SU when playing without rest with a negative differential of nearly 4PPG. The Wolves are all but officially eliminated from the post season as they are 6-games back with 19 to play.  Detroit on the other hand is rested, playing well and fighting for the 6th seed in the East. The 6th spot is critically important to the Pistons as that would mean a potential first round matchup with the Pacers (if the season ended today). Detroit is 8-2 SU their last ten games and have won 5 straight at home by an average of 12.2PPG. Included in those five W’s are victories over the Raptors, Pacers and Nuggets. Detroit is looking at three very winnable games in a row but need to get this win tonight first. The Wolves have the 10th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.1PPG and a big reason why is their road defense which is 27th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.161 points per possession. The Pistons have covered 7 in a row against the T’Wolves, make it 8!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgia -3.5 over Missouri, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

Georgia is just 2-14 in the SEC yet favored here by a full 3 points?  We agree with the number.  Head coach Tom Crean has been very pleased with the way his team has been playing and we can see why.  Over their last 5 games, the Bulldogs are just 1-4 but easily playing their best basketball of the season.  They are coming off a 61-55 road win @ Florida which will give them loads of confidence coming home.  The 4 games before that win they lost to LSU by 4, lost to Mississippi State by 1, lost at Ole Miss by 1, and then lost to Auburn by 3.  Those are 4 down to the wire games against some of the top teams in the conference.  Over that 5 game stretch, vs 5 teams that are all above .500 in conference play and have a combined record of 50-30, the Bulldogs shot 49% while holding their opponents to 46%.  They were also plus on the boards during that stretch.  Now they face a Mizzou team that is a big step down for their last 5 opponents.  The Tigers are 4-12 in the SEC and just 1-8 SU away from home this season.  They are shooting just 41% away from home and their average road loss has come by 10 points.  The Tigers are 13th in the conference in offensive efficiency and dead last in turnover rate coughing it up over 22% of the time.  They also very rarely get to the FT line ranking last in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio.  Those numbers explain why they are so poor on the road.  That continues here and UGA gets the home win and cover.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma +2 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET - on ESPN2

We’ll play the Sooners tonight as a home dog on Senior Night.  This is a huge game for OU as they are 18-11 overall and have played a very tough schedule (10th ranked SOS nationally) but their current 6-10 Big 12 record may cause them problems come selection Sunday.  A win here would most likely solidify a berth in the Big Dance.  “Tomorrow’s huge,” Senior Christian James said after practice Monday. “It could make us or break us for getting in the tournament. We’re gonna go out here and fight, man.”  OU actually has 5 seniors who play significant roles so tonight you can bet they’ll play as hard as they have all season.  Lose this game and the Sooners could be in trouble as they travel to KSU this weekend and face a Wildcat team that will be playing for the Big 12 conference title.  Kansas is off a come from behind 5-point win @ Oklahoma State on Saturday.  The game was tied with under 2:00 minutes to go and that was against a Cowboy team that is rated 106th nationally (2nd worst in the Big 12) and has a 3-13 conference record.  That has been the theme for this young KU team this year.  They really can’t be trusted on the road.  They are just 3-7 in true road games this year and none of their 3 wins have come by more than 5 points.  Off that tough road game on Saturday we’d expect the Jayhawks, who start 4 freshmen, to struggle here.  These two met in January in Lawrence KS and Oklahoma played KU well losing 70-63.  The stats in that game were almost dead even and OU was within 4 points with under 1:00 minute to go.  Two key players and two of their only veterans, Lagerald Vick & Udoka Azubuike, combined to score 20 points and grab 13 rebounds in that game.  Those two are no longer on the court for KU with Azubuike injured and Vick left the team.  OU should have plenty of confidence after taking Kansas to the wire earlier this year and beating them here at home last season.  This is a tough spot for Kansas and the game of the year, so to speak, for a veteran Sooner team.  We’ll take the home dog.

ASA play on: Memphis Grizzlies +6 over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET – If you’ve followed us for any length of time you know how much we like to be on the ‘uglies’ or contrarian Sides in the NBA. A general rule of thumb we’ve lived by for the past 30 years is to not be on the team Vegas wants you to bet. The Blazers look way too good to be true in this match-up, so we’ll take the ugly Grizzlies at home plus the points. Memphis has a defensive minded backcourt with Avery Bradley and Mike Conley that can defend or neutralize the Blazers strength, Lillard and McCollum. Granted, the Grizzlies had a different roster at the time but two months ago when these two teams met in Portland the Blazers were essentially favored by the same number as today’s game. I could argue the Grizzlies are a better team after the trade for Bradley and Valanciunas. Portland is fighting for a top 4 placement in the West and have a much bigger game on deck with Oklahoma City AND this will be their 7th straight road game so how focused are they? The Blazers have a losing road record this season and a negative differential of -1.7PPG which is 13th in the league. Memphis has a losing home record on the season, but their average differential is minus -.2PPG which clearly gets us a cover here.  Despite a disappointing season the Grizzlies still have the 6th best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and they can keep this game close throughout. The obvious bet here is Portland…SO TAKE MEMPHIS!

ASA play on: LA CLIPPERS +4 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – I wouldn’t bet the Lakers with someone else’s money right now. Since LeBron tried to orchestrate the trade for Anthony Davis the team has gone in the tank. The drama that follows LeBron everywhere he goes is a HUGE distraction and he’s just not a player that others want to follow. A lot of talk, but he doesn’t back it up. His playoff intensity has been embarrassing on the defensive end of the floor and he hasn’t inspired the younger players to another level.  In their last five games the Lakers have a negative differential of -6.6PPG, have allowed an average of 121PPG on 48.7% shooting by foes. Four of those last five games have come against non-playoff teams New Orleans twice, Phoenix and Memphis. The Clippers on the other hand made a big move at the trade deadline but have not given up on the season. The Clips have a positive differential their last five games of +.8PPG and three of those five games were on the road against playoff caliber teams in Sacramento, Utah and Denver. The Clippers have covered 4 straight in the series and they’re clearly the team that is still playing hard. Grab the points with the Clippers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +1 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - Big Ten Game of the Week

We love this situation for Maryland.  The Terps are coming off a blowout loss @ Penn State on Wednesday.  That wasn’t a huge surprise (we used PSU as a pick) as the young Terps had struggled at times on the road this year and they were clearly looking ahead to this huge home game.  On top of that, Penn State is playing very well right now as they found their groove winning 5 of 7 after their win over Maryland.  Now they are at home facing a Michigan team that just played their home finale on Thursday night crushing a faltering Nebraska team 82-53.  Now the Wolverines must travel a few days later and Michigan hasn’t been great on the road as of late going just 3-3 their last 6 away from home.  Maryland, on the other hand, is undefeated in Big 10 play at home beating the likes of 1st place Purdue (by 14) and Wisconsin just to name a few.  These two met just a few weeks ago (Feb 16) in Ann Arbor and Michigan pulled out a 65-52 win.  The Terps shot just 36% in the game and only 27% from deep.  They also went to the FT line just 8 times in the game.  One thing they did do is dominate the boards (+7) including 10 offensive rebounds and we expect them to duplicate that at home.  Maryland ranks #1 in the Big Ten with a rebounding margin of +7.3 while Michigan ranks 10th at -1.3 RPG.  Much is made of the Michigan defense which obviously is very good, however many don’t realize that Maryland defense is every bit as good.  The Terps allow opponent so shoot just 38% in Big 10 play which ranks only behind Michigan State in the league (Michigan allows 40%).  We look for the Terps to play MUCH better on offense in this rematch as they are much more comfortable at home averaging 77 PPG and shooting 48%.  The Wolverines, on the other hand, average only 67 PPG on the road.  They will also most likely be without one of their top players, Charles Matthews (13 PPG), who injured his ankle last weekend in their home loss to Michigan State.  We couldn’t ask for a better set up to this game and Maryland gets the win at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico -2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 10 PM ET

This is a great spot for New Mexico.  They come into this one off an embarrassing road loss to San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West.  The Lobos took 82 shots in the game (18 more than SJSU) but shot poorly especially from 3 point land making only 8 of 34.  San Jose State, on the other hand, made 50% of their 3-point attempts which is way up from their season average in conference play of just 31%.  Now back at home where they’ve played well, we look for New Mexico to play with an inspired effort.  The Lobos have played the top teams in the MWC very tough at home beating Nevada (the top team in the league with a 13-2 record), beating San Diego State (10-5 in the conference), and lost to Utah State by 2 (13-3 in the conference).  Colorado State comes in overvalued right now off 3 straight wins.  Even with those wins, the Rams are still only 7-8 in conference play.  Their first two wins came over San Jose State & Wyoming, the two lowest rated teams in the conference who have a combined record of 3-27!  Their most recent win came @ Boise State who is now heading in the wrong direction and the Broncos were in a terrible spot off blowing a lead in a huge home game vs Utah State and losing in OT.  We’re not going to overreact to that stretch by CSU.  They are still just 3-7 away from home this season.  The value is clearly on New Mexico here as they Lobos were actually favored by 2 points @ Colorado State in December and now they are laying less than that at home!  New Mexico lost that game with CSU shooting 56% from the field and the Rams were +8 in FT’s made.  Now on the road for the 2nd time this week and a huge home game vs Utah State on deck for the Rams, we feel this is a bad spot for a pretty average team.  With the line where it is, we’re simply asking New Mexico to win at home which they’ve done vs much better teams this season.  Lay it with the Lobos

ASA play on: #570 Utah Jazz -3.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 9PM ET – Look at this number and tell me what your first instinct is. The Bucks as an underdog? Take the points! NOT US, we’re going contrarian here and taking the team Vegas doesn’t want us to bet, Utah! The Bucks have been red hot with a 20-2 SU streak but this is not a good spot as they are coming off a big showcase win over the Lakers last night and will letdown here. Milwaukee used a 15-2 run to close the game last night (thankfully as we had the Bucks) and expended a ton of energy to get that W. As impressive as the Bucks run has been the Jazz have been nearly as good. Utah is 17-6 SU their last 23 games and are coming off a big win a few nights back over Denver. We’re comfortable with the spread on this game as the Jazz have been favored at home by similar numbers over the better teams in the West. The Jazz are 21-6 SU the last 27 clashes with the Bucks and have COVERED 15 of the last sixteen meetings in Utah. The Jazz have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA at +6.7PPG and that comes against a tougher schedule in the West. We’ll finish with this. Why are the Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA, this big of an underdog against the 6th seed in the West? Because they’re going to win this game by 8 or more!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Rutgers +9 over Iowa, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

We don’t trust Iowa to lay nearly double digits.  We’ve felt this team was overvalued for most of the season and they are showing their true colors down the stretch.  We faded them on Tuesday of this week and they were blasted @ Ohio State by 20 points.  We saw this coming as the Hawkeyes have not been playing very well for a good month now.  This is a tough spot for Iowa as they have a huge revenge game on deck @ Wisconsin and they will be without their head coach Fran McCaffrey who is suspended for the next 2 games due to confronting an official after the OSU loss.  Rutgers is trending upward.  They are now 6-11 in Big Ten play and coming off a nice home win over a Minnesota team that is fighting for an NCAA bid.  That game was last Sunday so they’ve had nearly a week to get ready for this revenge game.  Meanwhile Iowa played last Friday, then on Tuesday, and now again on Saturday.  Rutgers is 2-3 their last 5 games but they are very close to being on a 4-1 run.  They have wins over Minnesota and Northwestern (on the road) during that 5 game stretch.  Their losses have come by 11 @ Michigan State (very competitive game vs the top team in the Big 10), lost in OT @ Illinois, and lost by 2 to this Iowa team in an excruciating ending.  In their game vs Iowa just 2 weeks ago the Knights led by a point with only a few seconds remaining.  Iowa in bounded the length of the court and BANKED IN a corner 3-pointer as time expired for the win.  Rutgers outplayed Iowa for much of the game and we look for them to come into Iowa City knowing they can win this one and play very well.  Over the last 5 the numbers on these teams look very similar with Iowa scoring 72 PPG but allowing 74 PPG while Rutgers is scoring 70 PPG and giving up 72 PPG.  Rutgers is actually shooting a higher % than they are allowing during that stretch while Iowa is allowing a higher % than they are making.  We give Rutgers a shot to come in and pull the upset vs an Iowa team that is just 3-2 their last 5 home games with two of those wins coming by 1 point over Northwestern and in OT vs Indiana.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tennessee (-2.5) over Kentucky, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

This is a rematch from just a few weeks ago when UK rolled over Tennessee 86-69 in Lexington.  We know this veteran UT team (all upperclassmen in the starting line up) was embarrassed by that performance on national TV as the Kentucky offense shredded them hitting 55% from the field.  Now they get the young Cats (4 freshmen in the starting line up) at home where the Vols are 16-0 this year with 24 straight wins here dating back to last year.  That includes beating Kentucky here last year by 11 points.  The Cats will be a bit undermanned here as they are without senior PF starter Reid Travis.  He will be missed in this game as he scored 11 points and pulled down 6 rebounds in the first match up in mid February.  Even more importantly, Travis did a great job defensively on Tennessee’s leading scorer Grant Williams limiting him to just 4 FG attempts for the entire game.  In the two games with Travis out, the Wildcats beat Auburn at home and then struggled with Arkansas at home having to come from 15 points down in the 2ndhalf to get pick up a tight win.  This will be their first road game without Travis.  Many of Kentucky’s SEC road games this year have not been easy.  They struggled with a poor Mizzou team in their most recent road game.  Other away from home included a 4-point win @ Mississippi State, a 2-point win @ Auburn, and a loss @ Alabama.  Now they play the best team they’ve played on the road this year and a very motivated one at that.  The Vols have played a grand total of one really poor game this year and that was @ Kentucky.  Their other 2 losses on the season (25-3 record) both came in OT @ LSU and vs Kansas on a neutral court way back in November.  We expect a supreme effort from Tennessee here and we look for them to win and cover at home.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 over LA Lakers, 10:30PM ET – This is an interesting matchup from our perspective as we just won a wager against the Bucks on Wednesday and also won betting on the Lakers. Tonight, we have a great combination wager with an investment on the Bucks minus the points, and a play against Los Angeles. The Bucks were up 13 at the end of the 3rd and led by as many as 17 at one point over the Kings. Sacramento forced OT but the Bucks held on for the 1-point win. This is a much bigger game with a marquee showdown against LeBron and the Lakers so don’t expect a letup in this one. Milwaukee is 22-9 SU on the road this season with the second-best average point differential in the league at +6.4PPG. The Bucks were just favored by -6.5 points in Sacramento who is better than this Lakers team, yet the line is lower. We weren’t impressed with the Lakers win over the Pelicans the other night. LeBron and his lip service talked about flipping the switch on his playoff intensity and playing with a sense of urgency but he’s not living up to the talk. Sure, he’s put up impressive offensive numbers, but his defense is horrendous and it’s obvious to see he’s lost the team and their confidence. The entire team lacked the urgency LBJ talked about in a revenge game against the Pelicans, at home, off a couple bad losses AND with a limited Anthony Davis’s role. If they don’t show up for that game, they won’t show up here. L.A. has the 22nd worst home point differential in the NBA at plus .8PPG and are just 18-12 SU in the Forum. When it comes to efficiency these two teams aren’t close. The Bucks are 4th in OEFF compared to the Lakers 21st ranking. Defensively the Bucks are 1st in DEFF while the Lakers are 12th and falling. Los Angeles played a very weak schedule prior to the break and we’re finding out just how bad this team is now that the level of competition has gone up. The Bucks by a dozen.

ASA play on: @Sacramento Kings -3 vs LA Clippers, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley (out tonight), Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings are just 1-4 SU their last five games which is why we are getting tremendous value tonight but look at who they’ve played. Sacramento has played arguably 4 of the five best teams in the league in this current stretch. They lost by 4 combined point IN Golden State and Denver, won in OKC and then just lost by 1-point to the Bucks at home the other night in over-time. Now they step way down in talent against a Clippers team that narrowly leads them in the West for the 8th and final playoff spot. The Kings have not had good success against the Clippers in recent years but these are not the same rosters. Sacramento is 100% or perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by -3.5 or less points this season (under-valued by the oddsmakers). The Clippers traded away their leading scorer in Tobias Harris and looked as it they were going to tank the rest of the season for a better draft status but they then won 3 of five games. Looking closer we see those wins came against Phoenix, Memphis and Dallas who are a combined 63-123 SU. Based on the efficiency differentials we calculate the Kings winning by 9 in this contest. Lay it!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Siena +1.5 over Canisius, Friday at 9 PM ET

Big revenger for Siena here who blew a 10-point 2nd half lead and lost at home to Canisius back in January.  Siena shot just 38% in that game (45% for Canisius) and they were -12 made FT’s yet the game still went to the wire with Canisius winning 70-66.  One of the top players for Canisius, Isaiah Reese, has now been suspended for the last 9 games but was in the line up for the first match up and scored 20 points.  His absence gives Siena a nice advantage here.  Canisius just lost at home to Niagara as a 5.5 point favorite a few nights ago and that dropped their home record to just 4-8 this year.  They have covered just 30% of the time this year as a home favorite (3-7 ATS).  Now we add the fact that Siena is a very good road team with a 5-2 record away from home in MAAC play.  Thus, while this line is adjusted for home court advantage, it really shouldn’t be.  Siena should be favored in this game in our opinion.  They are the MUCH better defensive team ranking #1 in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency (Canisius is 10th in the league in that category) and they turn the ball over far less (#1 in the MAAC in offensive turnover percentage).  This is the 3rd game in 6 days for Canisius while Siena has been off since Sunday and should be the more rested team.  Siena has been a great underdog this year covering 10 of the 14 times they’ve been getting points.  We like them to win on the road tonight so we’ll take the points with Siena.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oregon -3 over Arizona State, Thursday at 11 PM ET

This one sets up nicely for the Ducks who are finally back home after 3 consecutive road games – all losses.  Before that road trip Oregon had won 4 of their previous 5 games at home with their only loss coming by 5 points to the best team in the Pac 12 – Washington.  The Ducks have been a bit of a disappointment this year but they are talented and definitely better than their record might indicate.  They sit at just 6-8 in Pac 12 play putting them in 10th place yet in most power ratings, including ours, Oregon ranks as the 3rd of 4th best team in the league.  Now back at home, off 3 losses, and in a revenge spot we anticipate them playing very well tonight.  These two met in January and ASU (-4) with the Sun Devils coming away with the 75-63 win at home.  The Devils scorched the nets in that game hitting 51% of their shots to just 33% for Oregon.  The Ducks controlled the boards with 14 offensive rebounds which led to a number of extra possessions.  Because of that they attempted 63 shots to just 49 for ASU however the hot shooting from the home team and cold shooting from the Ducks led to the double digit win for the host.  The roles could be reversed here as the Sun Devils shoot just 41% on the road this year while Oregon is hitting 48% of their shots at home.  ASU has been up and down all season long beating some very good teams (Kansas, Mississippi State, and Washington) while losing to a number of poor teams (Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton).  After 3 straight wins, including 2 in a row at home before this road trip, we have a feeling that Arizona State will be flat here.  Their recent 2 game home stand they beat Cal (the worst team in the Pac 12) and Stanford (3rd lowest rated team in the conference).   It gets much tougher tonight vs a desperate Oregon team.  The Ducks opened at -1.5 and this line jumped to -3 despite the fact they are 6-8 in the conference facing a 10-5 ASU team.  Interesting line move and we agree with it.  Take Oregon.

ASA play on: #530 Indiana Pacers -3 over Minnesota Timberwolves, 7PM ET – Both teams are coming off road games last night but we like one of the best teams in the East to rebound at home with a better effort, than a Wolves team on the road again and playing out the string. Minnesota has been bad all season on the road and currently have the 7th worst road record in the NBA at 9-22 SU with an average differential of -4.7PPG (20th in NBA). When playing without rest this season the Wolves are 2-6 SU with an average differential of -3.2PPG. Indiana has the 3rd best home point differential in the league this season at plus +9.3PPG which ties in nicely to their 23-8 SU home record. The Pacers are also 8-3 SU/ATS when playing without rest this season. Karl Anthony Towns had a monster game last night in their OT loss in Atlanta with 35 points and 18 rebounds, but he’ll have a very hard time duplicating those numbers against the defensive minded center for Indiana, Miles Turner. The Wolves have just 1 road win in their last seven away from home and that came against the lowly Knicks. The Pacers on the other hand are 12-3 SU their last 15 at home and the three losses came to the Bucks, Warriors and 76ers. Of those 12 wins only ONE came by less than 8-points and ALL twelve came by 4 or more points. With the 76ers nipping at the Pacers heels in the East we like them to get this home win by 8 or more.

ASA play on: #526 LA Lakers -5.5 over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:30PM ET – If you’ve read our opinions on LeBron and the Lakers you clearly know where we stand on this subject. I personally feel LeBron is a fraud and all this drama this season surrounding the trade deadline was caused by him (and his agent). He knew what the roster was going into the season but was more concerned at that time about the glitz and glam of Hollywood. You make your bed, you must sleep in it. But that’s a side point and I got distracted. When it comes to investing, we put all of that aside though as it’s about the Benjamins and how many we can take from the Books. We are betting the Lakers show up tonight as this game is on national TV and the Pelicans just beat them the other night which helped escalate all the talk in the media. The Lakers were JUST FAVORED by -6.5-points IN NEW ORLEANS and now are laying less than that here? So, what you’re telling me is that the Lakers just got 10-points worse in 5 days? Yeah, no way. The Pelicans are just 9-23 SU on the road this year with a negative differential of -1.8PPG. Digging deeper we find the Pels are just 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS versus the Western Conference. The Lakers most recent home game was a 5-point win over Houston so asking them to cover this number is not too much to ask for. With Anthony Davis having a limited role for New Orleans it only adds to our confidence in our wager as we know they won’t jeopardize his trade value by playing him late in this contest. The Lakers get revenge here and win by double-digits!

ASA play on: #526 Sacramento Kings +6.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 10PM ET – The Sacramento Kings have been VERY good to us this season as we’ve won nearly every time we’ve bet on or against them. The Bucks continue to hold the best record in the NBA at 46-14 SU and the public has taken notice. Most of the tickets and money tonight has been bet on the Bucks. That’s perfect for us as it gives us added value with the up-and-coming Kings.  Milwaukee is 14-6 SU against the West this season but just 10-10 ATS which tells us they haven’t been good versus the West as a favorite. The East has improved dramatically but the West is still deeper from top to bottom. Proof of that is Sacramento’s 14-5-1 ATS record (14-6 SU) against the East and they are currently 9th in the West. The Kings recently played 3 games against three of the best teams in the West on the road. They lost to the Warriors by 2, Denver by 2 and beat the Thunder. They return home off a road loss, facing a public team like Milwaukee which will have their full attention. The Bucks have a solid +6.6 points per game road differential this season, but that number is inflated by some blowout road wins over the weaker teams in the East (+14PPG in 6 games against the likes of Chicago, Washington, Orlando, Atlanta, New York and Cleveland). Sacramento is 9-1 SU their last ten home games, prior to that they were home dogs to Golden State and Denver, and they lost both by just 4-points each. This is an easy call with the young Sacramento Kings at home.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Northern Iowa +2 over Loyola Chicago, Wednesday at 8 PM ET

Loyola continues to get way too much respect this year in our opinion.  This is not the team that made it to the Final 4 last season but they continue to be wagered as such.  They have been bet up to a road favorite in this game vs a team that is 9-7 in MVC play and one game out of first place behind Loyola, Missouri State, and Drake.  We’ve faded the Ramblers on the road a number of times this year with very good success.  That includes just a few days ago when we sided with Southern Illinois -1 at home vs Loyola and they Salukis went on to win 63-53.  The Ramblers are now 1-4 SU their last 5 road games with their lone win during that stretch coming @ Valpo by a final score of 56-51.  It was a game that Valpo led 9 with 7:00 minutes remaining and went on to score just 8 points the remainder of the game.  Now they are on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days facing perhaps the hottest team in the MVC.  Northern Iowa has won 4 consecutive games, all by double digits.  One of those wins was a 63-43 trouncing of Missouri State (tied with Loyola & Drake for 1st place) on the road.  Just before their 4 games run UNI lost a very tight game @ Drake (another 1st place team) in a game that had 19 lead changes.  So the Panthers have played the other 2 first place teams recently, beating one handily on the road and taking the other to the wire on the road.   Now they get to face their 3rd first place team but they get to do it at home on Senior Night with a chance to potentially move into a tie for first place with a win.  UNI is confident and playing their best basketball of the year.  They have outscored their last 5 opponents by an average score of 70-60 while making 47% of their shots and holding their opponents to 41%.  On the season they rank #2 in offensive efficiency in MVC play while ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency.  While Loyola does rank 1st in offensive efficiency, they are 8th in defensive efficiency and 10th (last) in eFG% defense.  Last year’s Loyola team ranked 1st in both of those defensive categories.  As we said, this team isn’t nearly as good as last year’s squad though people continue to think they are.  When these two faced off @ Loyola earlier this year NIU took the Ramblers to the wire losing 61-60.  Now the Panthers are playing much better than they were at that time and they are at home.  We have now doubt that Northern Iowa is the better team right now and they are getting points at home.  We’ll take it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +12 over LSU, Tuesday at 9 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a fantastic situational spot to go against this young LSU team.  While this is a very good Tiger team, keep in mind they play 4 freshmen in their 7 man rotation.  They are coming off back to back overtime games as well heading into this one.  On Saturday, they played host to Tennessee in a game with huge SEC implications.  The Vols led almost the entire game and did lead the entire 2nd half until 1:20 remaining when LSU was able to tie it.  The game went to OT and the Tigers won on a crazy end of game situation in which a Tennessee player was called for a foul going for an offensive rebound on his end of the court with 0.6 seconds remaining in a tie game.  The Tigers were in no position to win the game as they ball was not even in their offensive zone when the foul was called.  LSU made both FT’s and won in OT 82-80.  They are bound to have a letdown here after that win which was preceded by another OT game (loss to Florida) as we mentioned.  Not only that, they are facing a team they beat by 15 points earlier this year.  You can bet this freshmen laden team will have trouble bringing their “A” game tonight.  A&M is playing much better then than were when these two faced off in January.  Despite their 12-14 overall record, the Aggies have quietly won 4 of their last 5 games and have played 6 solid outings in a row.  In their game vs LSU in January, the Aggies shot just 33% overall and 3 of 21 from deep (14%).  Even with that horrible offensive performance, A&M still only lost by 15 which would be fairly close to this number tonight.  While LSU is 12-2 in SEC play, they’ve won only 3 of those by more than 10 points.  The Tigers last 7 games have all been decided by 5 points or less.  This is a bit of a dangerous game for LSU vs a surging A&M team that has now covered 7 of their last 8 road games.  The Tigers will most likely get this win at home in the end, but it should be much closer than most think. Take the points here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

This game is MUCH, MUCH bigger for Ohio State.  The Buckeyes sit at 17-10 overall and 7-9 in Big Ten play.  Most NCAA projections have them barely in the tourney right now (10 seed or so).  After this game they play back to back road games and then close with Wisconsin here.  They simply cannot afford to lose this game vs Iowa.  A win would be a resume builder vs a solid (but overrated in our opinion) Iowa Hawkeye team.  OSU has lost 3 of their last 4 games but two of those games were on the road vs top tier Big Ten opponents Michigan State & Maryland.  Their most recent home game was a 14-point win over Northwestern.  The Bucks struggle at times to score but they are much better at putting the ball in the basket at home where they average 75 PPG on 48% shooting.  They should also have a chance to thrive offensively tonight due to their opponent as the Iowa Hawkeyes rank dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency.  OSU is much better on that end of the court ranking 19th nationally in defensive efficiency and they gave the Hawkeyes some problems in their first meeting.  That game vs OSU was just one of five games this season that Iowa was held to a offensive efficiency rating of below 100.  Even though the Hawks had problems with this Buckeye defense in Iowa City, they still won by 10 due to a +10 advantage in made FT’s for the game (+14 in FT attempts).  OSU also had season high 21 turnovers in that game which contributed to a number of Iowa points.  Ohio State point guard CJ Jackson sat out last weekend’s loss @ Maryland but he did practice on Sunday and seems likely to play tonight which will give this team a boost.  Iowa looks to us like a team that is faltering a bit right now.  They are 10-6 overall in the Big Ten but their last 5 games have been shaky at best.  Those games include a tight 5-point win @ Indiana, a 1-point home win vs Northwestern (buzzer beater), a 2-point miracle buzzer beater win @ Rutgers, a loss at home vs Maryland, and a OT win last weekend at home vs Indiana.  Their road wins in league play have come against Rutgers (miracle shot), Indiana, Northwestern, and Penn State – 4 of the 5 lowest rated teams in the Big Ten.  Last year OSU was laying -14.5 on this court vs Iowa and now we’re looking at -3 to -3.5 just one year later.  The unranked Buckeyes are favored by a possession or more vs #22 Iowa?  Hmmm…  We like Ohio State here.

ASA play on: #568 Miami Heat -8.5 over Phoenix Suns, 7:30PM ET – The Suns are obviously one of the teams currently in the NBA that are “not tryin for Zion”. Phoenix has lost 17 straight games and 24 of their last 26. They have some ugly road losses in that stretch too. In their two most recent road games they’ve lost to the Hawks by 8 and the Cavs by 13 who are two of the other worst teams in the league. The last time the Suns won a road game was back on December 26th in Orlando and 11 of their last fourteen road beats has come by 8 or more points. The Heat are fighting for their playoff lives and currently sit a game-and-a-half behind Charlotte for the 8th and final spot. Miami has lost two straight with the most recent being an upset at home to a hot Detroit team, so I expect them to bounce back here. Phoenix has an average differential on the road of -13PPG which is the worst number in the NBA and if the Heat can’t beat the Suns at home by double-digits who can they beat that badly at home? We will go contrarian here and lay the points with Miami when most will stay away from this bet.

ASA play on: #555 Orlando Magic +9.5 @ Toronto Raptors, 3:35PM ET – This is a great spot to play on the Magic and against the Raptors. Orlando went into the All-Star break on a solid streak by winning 5 straight games and 7 of their last eight games overall. They then came out of the break and were upset by the Bulls as an 8-point chalk. That will have them refocused here in Toronto. The Raptors may not be dialed in here today for the following reasons. One, they are coming off a huge home win versus the Spurs which was DeRozan’s first game back in Toronto, along with Leonard facing his former team. Two, the Raptors have a HUGE game on deck against Boston. Three, the Raptors beat the Magic by 29-points earlier this year so it will be easy to overlook them. In their last eight road games the Magic’s largest negative differential was -10-points in OKC. Their other road losses have come by 5, 4 and 5-points. The Raptors have one of the best home records in the NBA at 25-5 SU with a +8.1-point differential but clearly that differential won’t get the cover here. Toronto is just 8-15 ATS when laying 9 or more points this season. Grab the generous points and Orlando in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings +6 @ Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers (35-23 ATS). Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Thunder have similar numbers offensively when it comes to efficiency ratings, but OKC is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th) and score 113.6PPG which is 9th in the NBA. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 44% shooting and that includes two games against the other two best teams in the West, Denver and Golden Stage. The same can’t be said for Oklahoma City who has allowed opponents to hit nearly 47% of their attempts in their last five.  The Kings were recently a 7-point dog in Denver (who we rate better than OKC) and lost by just 2 points. Sacramento was just +12 in Golden State and took the Warriors to the wire, losing by just 2. The Kings last four road games have been decided by 2, 2, 4 and a 3-point win. OKC is coming off a double OT game last night versus Utah which saw Westbrook play 42+ minutes, George 50+, Adams 47+. The Thunder were a 4-point favorite last night and their isn’t much difference between the Kings and Jazz currently. The Kings 6-1 ATS steak versus the Thunder improves by a ‘W’ tonight. Grab the points!

CBB PLAY ON Washington State +1.5 over Utah, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET - WSU is flying a bit under the radar right now due to their overall season record of just 11-15.  First off, four of those losses came when the Cougars were without Robert Franks who is one of the top players in the Pac 12.  Franks is back and playing his best basketball of the season averaging 25 PPG over his last 5 contests.  He leads the Pac 12 in scoring at 22 PPG and the 6’9 senior also averages almost 8 RPG.  The Cougs are 4-9 in league play, however Franks missed the first 3 conference games due to an injury so with him in the line up they are a respectable 4-6 in Pac 12 play.  WSU is playing their best basketball of the season right now winning 3 of their last 4 games.  They’ve done so playing against some of the top teams in the league beating ASU (#2 rated team in the Pac 12) on the road, beating Arizona on the road, losing to Washington (by far the #1 team on the league) by just 2 points and they topped Colorado here on Wednesday.  Over their last 5 the Cougars are averaging 78 PPG and winning by an average margin of 6 PPG.  They are also well rested as they had a full week off from Feb 9th to Feb 16th and have only played 2 games since.  Utah comes in trending downward losing 4 of their last 7 games.  They are one of the youngest teams in the Pac 12 starting 3 freshmen who seem to be hitting a wall.  That includes 2nd leading scorer Timmy Allen (12 PPG) who was out due to a back injury in the Utes 62-45 loss @ Washington on Wednesday.  He will be a game time decision for this one.  Utah, unlike WSU, is not rested as they will be playing their 4th game in 10 days.  When these two met in January, the Utes rolled to an 18-point win shooting 55% to just 35% for WSU.  Keep in mind, Franks, who was spoke about above, was out for the Cougars in that game.  He makes a huge difference on both ends of the court.   The host has covered 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series and these are two completely different teams than the ones that met over a month ago.  Washington State keeps playing well and they get the win at home.

ASA NBA play on: #529 Utah Jazz +4 over Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:35PM ET – The Jazz knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs last season and OKC has gotten their revenge on Utah twice already this season. With this being the 3rd meeting of the season that ‘revenge’ angle has worn off. Last night we liked Boston and the points over Milwaukee because of the edge with a good coach and extra time to prepare which is much like tonight’s contest with Quin Snyder and the Jazz. Utah is one of the better road teams in the NBA with a 14-15 SU record and a differential of +.2 which is 7th best in the league. They have been especially good off a loss with a 15-9 SU record, 14-3 ATS their last seventeen in that situation. Overall, as a dog in this price range the Jazz are 7-4 ATS this season. Oklahoma is clearly a team that could come out of the West (as is Utah) and they’ve been red hot of late with a 12-2 SU run, but only five of those wins have come against teams with an above .500 record. The line on this game is very inviting to bet OKC which has a ton of public money and tickets, so we’ll obviously bet the other way. Take Utah plus the points!

ASA play on: #507 Boston Celtics +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – It’s do-or-die time for the Celtics who sit 4th in the East but are tied with Philly. Clearly the top 4 spots in the conference get home court in the first round which makes this final stretch of the regular season critical. Boston has had their issues on the road against good teams, but they do have a positive road differential of +2.8PPG which is the 5th best number in the NBA. The C’s come into this game having won 12 of their last fifteen games and have only been a road dog of 5 or more points just two times this year. We are not over-looking Milwaukee’s 14-2 SU run or their home point differential, but the situation clearly favors the dog here. Boston has the best coach in the game in our opinion and with the added rest and lack of distractions from the All-Star game he’ll have the perfect game plan for this game tonight. Boston has covered 9 of the last twelve meetings with the Bucks and they’ll keep this close throughout and I’m not surprised if they win outright.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +2 over Georgia State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Why are the Georgia State Panthers with an 18-8 overall record only favored by 2 points @ Appalachian State who enters this game with a 9-16 record?  Most, who don’t follow the Sun Belt as closely as we do, will look at this game and immediately bet the small road favorite.  That would be a mistake in our opinion.  App State might be just 4-8 in league play but they are tough at home and trending upward.  They started the conference losing 6 straight but have since gone 4-2 over their last 6 games.  Even their 2 losses during this stretch have seen them play solid basketball.  They lost @ Texas State (highest rated team in the Sun Belt – currently in 1st place) but just 3 points.  It was a game that Texas State shot 55% as a team but still had to hold off App State who missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT.  They followed up that disappointing loss with a flat performance just 2 days later in a 10-point loss @ UT Arlington.  That was really the Mountaineers only poor outing over their last 6 games and the situation warranted a potential flat outing for them.  They are 8-2 overall at home this year and have won 3 straight here during this stretch.  They average 86 PPG at home and shoot nearly 50%.  Georgia State is trending the other way in our opinion.  They started the Sun Belt season with a perfect 5-0 mark but have since gone just 4-4.  All 4 of those wins have come at home and the Panthers have lost 3 straight road games.  Two of those road losses came vs teams ranked lower than App State (Louisiana & and Troy) and the other came @ UL Monroe who is 6-6 in conference play.  Their most recent game came last Friday at home vs South Alabama who is the 3rd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt.  Georgia State won the game but had to battle back from a 50-32 deficit to do so and remember this was at home vs a team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games.  GSU relies very heavily on the 3-point shot which might be part of the reason they struggle away from home.  They are a poor rebounding team (last in the Sun Belt at -6 per game) that shoots only 63% from the line (also last in the league) so in a close game late they are not always reliable.  Despite their impressive record, GSU’s point differential is almost dead even in conference play as they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 77-74.  App State, despite their 4-8 record, has a plus point differential outscoring teams in league play 81-79.  These two teams are much closer than their records might indicate and with ASU getting points at home in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season, we like them quite a bit in this spot.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Clemson -1 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We think the Tigers come into this one a bit undervalued.  They are just 15-10 on the season and only 5-7 in league play.  However, they are 4-3 their last 7 games and their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 1, and 2 points all on the road.  They took a very good Louisville team to the wire on the road Saturday only to see the Cards win by a point.  This Clemson team is better than their record.  They returned 4 starters from last year’s team that finished 25-10 and made it to the Sweet 16.  They are now backed into a corner at home in a must win spot.  They are 4-1 in ACC play at home with their only loss coming at the hands of Virginia.  The Tigers are fantastic defensively (13th nationally in defensive efficiency) but they have struggled on offense at times.  At home they seem to play much better on that end of the court shooting 47% and averaging 72 PPG here at Littlejohn Coliseum.  FSU comes in a bit overvalued in our minds after winning 7 straight games.  Keep in mind the Seminoles have played the easiest schedule thus far in the ACC yet they still are only 8-4 in league play.  With all of Clemson’s close losses, the Tigers could also be sitting with a similar record if a few bounces had gone their way.  FSU has just played the 2 worst teams in the ACC, Georgia Tech & Wake, their last 2 games winning each big giving them a false sense of security.  The Noles also have a huge game on deck with North Carolina so a look ahead wouldn’t be surprising especially playing a Clemson team they already beat in Tallahassee this year.  Florida State is 3-3 on the road in ACC play but two of those losses have come to lower tier teams Pitt & Boston College.  Last year Clemson, with basically the same line up, beat FSU here by 13 points as a 3-point favorite.  Now they are laying only 1 point in a must win spot.  The host has won 6 of the last 7 in this series and this is a MUCH bigger game for Clemson.  We’ll side with the Tigers.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Texas A&M, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We had been very successful this season when playing on or against Bama heading into last Saturday.  We felt the Tide were in a great spot at home vs Florida and they laid an egg as the Gators blew them out in Tuscaloosa.  We’ll come back with the Crimson Tide here and expect a very good performance off that embarrassing home effort.  Head coach Avery Johnson was livid with Saturday’s effort and said he’d do whatever it takes to win, including benching players that don’t put forth the effort needed.  The players go the message as starting guard John Petty stated yesterday, “I guarantee you’ll see a whole nother team coming out on Tuesday.”  Bama is officially on the NCAA bubble and a loss here would be devastating.  As expected, the Tide have struggled to beat the top teams in the SEC on the road, however the lower tier teams they’ve proven they can beat.  The 4 lowest rated teams in the SEC, by a fairly wide margin, are Vandy, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Mizzou.  The Tide have played 2 of those teams on the road this year beating both Mizzou and Vandy by double digits.  A&M started the SEC season losing 8 of their first 9 conference games.  Then last week they beat Mizzou & Georgia, two of the worst teams in the SEC, to get to 3-8.  Over the weekend they blew a double digit lead vs South Carolina and lost by 7.  That could very well be a demoralizing loss for this team and lingers into this match up.  The Aggies have had no home court advantage this year losing 6 of their last 8 home games.  They sit right near the bottom of the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency (13th & 14th).  Bama also has a bit more incentive here as they led A&M for 37 of the 40 minutes in Tuscaloosa but lost by 1-point on a off-balance, banked in 3-pointer at the buzzer.  Bama is the better team and they a lot of motivation here for the reasons discussed.  Where this line sits they really only have to win the game so we’ll take Alabama.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Bradley +4.5 over Drake, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The Braves came into the season with very high expectations with the majority of their key contributors returning from a 20-13 team.  After going just 8-10 their first 18 games including 0-5 to start Missouri Valley play, this talented team was definitely headed in the wrong direction.  That all turned around on January 20th when this team pulled the upset at Southern Illinois to pick up their first conference win.  They are now 7-2 their last 9 games, including 4 road wins.  Their offense struggled early in the year but over their last 8 games this team has made 47% of their 3-pointers (3 best in the nation during that stretch) and 49% of their shots overall.  That has catapulted this team that already had a very good defense (2nd in MVC in defensive efficiency & eFG% defense) and they are at the top of their game right now.  Their most recent two games were wins over 2 of the best teams in the league as they topped Loyola Chicago at home and then won @ Illinois State over the weekend.  The oddmakers have not caught up to this team as the last 8 times they’ve been an underdog, they’ve won 6 of those games outright.  Drake is tied for first place in the conference and just picked up their 20th win by holding on at home to beat Valpo by 5 over the weekend.  It’s their first 20 win season since 2007 so a bit of a letdown after achieving that major goal wouldn’t be a shocker.  Unlike Bradley, the Bulldogs aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the year.  They are 4-2 their last 6 games, however all 4 of those wins have come by 6 points or less.  Their point differential over their last 5 games is dead even as they are averaging 74 PPG and allowing 74 PPG.  They already won @ Bradley back in early January when the Braves were faltering.  Bradley attempted 11 more shots in that first match up but made only 31% overall and only 20% from beyond the arc.  They are playing much better now and we expect a solid performance from the Braves who have a little extra motivation due to that first match up.  The road team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings outright and we give Bradley a great shot to win here.  There is a reason the 20-win, 1st place team is only favored by 4 facing the team that is 7-7 in conference play.  Take Bradley.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois +9.5 over Wisconsin, Monday at 8 PM ET - On Fox Sports 1

These two met back in January and Wisconsin (-4) won the game 72-60 and looking at the final stats it wasn’t surprising.  The Badgers shot over 50% overall and 50% from beyond the arc.  They also hit 81% at the FT line.  Illinois, on the other hand, made just 35% of their shots and a paltry 19% from deep.  Even with that, the game was not a blowout.  It landed right around where tonight’s number sits.  Since that game the Illini have played very well winning 5 of their last 6 games heading into tonight.  It’s not as if they are beating all lower tier Big Ten teams either as they’ve knocked off Michigan State, Maryland, and Ohio State during that stretch.  The Illini have really turned up the heat defensively as their pressure defense ranks #1 in the Big Ten at creating turnovers.  While Wisconsin is normally tight with the ball, they did cough it up 17 times @ Illinois or 25% of their possessions which is very high.  To give you an idea, that number would rank them dead last in the Big Ten by a lot.  Those turnovers led the Illinois taking 15 more shot attempts, the problem was they shot so terribly they couldn’t take advantage of it.  We think that changes tonight as the Illini have played very well offensively as well shooting 46% and averaging 77 PPG their last 5.  The Badgers are off back to back huge games vs Michigan & Michigan State, both went to the wire and they lost both.  UW’s offense has not topped 69 points in their last 6 games and they are only averaging 59 PPG their last 5.  While their defense has been very good, we don’t see them completely shutting down Illinois tonight.  We see Wisconsin having a tough time pulling away in a lower scoring type game.  The Badgers should win this one, however we think it will be fairly close.  Take the points.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Creighton -4.5 over Seton Hall, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

These two just met on February 9th with Seton Hall coming away with a 63-58 win.  The Jays offense was outright abysmal in that game yet they still took the Hall to the wire.  Creighton, who ranks 5th nationally in eFG% offense and 9th nationally in 3-point FG%, shot just 30% from the field and only 28% from deep in that game.  They were a ridiculously bad 6 of 22 in that game at the rim (layups) and again, even with that performance, it was a 1-point game with 10 seconds remaining.  The Jays are finally back home after a 3 game road trip that saw them go 0-3.  They hit a shooting slump during that 3 game span, but as stated all were on the road.  Even during their offensive slump, they Blue Jays were competitive during that road trip losing in OT @ Villanova, losing in OT @ Xavier, and then losing @ Seton Hall by 5.  Their defense has been playing very well and keeping them in games.  Now what happens when their offense breaks out and they shoot it like they are capable?  We’d say an easy win and we expect that today.  Creighton shoots much better at home hitting over 50% of their shots and 42% of their 3-pointers.  The game before they left on their 3 game road trip the Jays beat Xavier here by 22 points.  Seton Hall has won 3 of their last 4 but all of those wins were at home.  On the road it’s been a different story for this team.  After winning their Big East road opener at Xavier, the Pirates have gone on to lose 5 straight away from home.  They are averaging just 67 PPG on the road while Creighton puts up over 80 PPG at home.  The home team has won 5 straight in this series and the last two games here in Omaha saw the Jays win by 17 & 14 points.  We expect Creighton to break out of their mini slump and shoot very well at home today.  That leads to an easy, quick revenge win over Seton Hall.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Arizona State +2 over Utah, Saturday at 10 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We’ve been on or against ASU in each of their last 2 games and cashed in on both.  We were on the Devils last Saturday when they were a home favorite over then undefeated Washington (in Pac 12 play).  ASU picked up the double digit win and cashed for us.  We then faded the Sun Devils on Wednesday when they went to Colorado and we picked up another win as the Buffs won 77-73.  We’re back on Arizona State here.  We’ve mentioned before this Sun Devil team has been all over the board.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State.  They’ve also lost to the likes of Washington State, Vanderbilt, and Princeton.  It seems if they are focused and motivated, they can be very good.  If not, they tend to play down to their competition.  ASU should definitely be motivated here as they are off their tight loss @ Colorado and lost earlier this year at home to Utah.  In that game the Utes pulled off the 96-86 upset as 11-point underdogs.  They shot lights out making 51% of their shots overall, 53% from beyond the arc, and 82% from the FT line.  Those numbers are all well above the Utes season averages on offense (+20 points, +6% from the field, +15% from 3, and +12% from the FT line for the game).  That was the first conference game for both teams the Utah’s best offensive performance in Pac 12 play as they put up 1.26 PPP.  That is not the norm vs Arizona State’s defense which is very solid ranking in the top 70 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  Even with those lofty numbers, Utah fell behind by 17 points in the game and rallied back for a win.  It’s a loss that ASU has not forgotten and head coach Bobby Hurley stated it was a frustrating game that they had control of but let the Utes back in it.  The Devils will be ready here.  Utah sits in 2nd place in the conference with an 8-4 record yet their power rating has them as the 8th best team in the Pac 12.  Arizona State is a game behind Utah in 4th place but the Devils power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the league behind only Washington & Oregon.  Arizona State has a big edge defensively in this game with Utah ranking 253rd nationally in defensive efficiency and 229th in eFG% defense (ASU’s numbers are above).  Utah is off a big home win on Thursday night as they beat Arizona.  It was a big revenge game for them as they lost in OT at Zona.  This young Utah team (3 freshmen in the starting line up) might have trouble getting back up for this game vs a team they’ve already beaten.  The Utes don’t have a huge home court edge as that win gives them a 3-3 home record in the Pac 12.  The road team has won 4 straight in this series and we’ll make it 5 as Arizona State gets the win on Saturday night. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Diego -2.5 over BYU, Thursday at 10 PM ET - ASA's WEST COAST CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

San Diego comes into this game with a 5-5 record in the West Coast Conference but we feel they are drastically undervalued right now.  We had the Toreros rated as the #2 team in the league coming into the season only behind Gonzaga.  They proved they were worthy of that rating going 11-4 in the non-conference with their only losses coming by 3 @ Washington (the top team in the Pac 12), by 7 @ Ole Miss, by 10 @ Oregon, and in OT vs Drake (the 2nd place team in the Missouri Valley).  San Diego had non-conference wins over Washington State, San Diego State, & Colorado to name a few.  So why are they just 5-5 in league play?  Injuries.  Their starting senior guards, Isaiah Wright and Olin Carter, have only played together twice the entire month of January.  Those two games just happened to be the Toreros 2 most recent tilts and both are healthy now and playing together for the 3rd straight game.  That’s huge as Wright averages 13 PPG and leads the team in assists despite missing 4 games while Carter puts up 16 PPG and is one of their top 3-point shooters.  They should be motivated here after blowing a 3-point lead with under 10 seconds remaining in the game last weekend in a 70-67 loss @ Pepperdine.  San Diego has been lights out at home going 11-1 on the season with their only loss coming by 5 points last month when Wright was out.  This is a veteran team when healthy with 4 seniors in the starting lineup, all of whom started last year for a team that went 20-14 on the season.  BYU comes in just the opposite in our opinion which is overvalued.  They are 8-3 and in 2nd place in the WCC.  However, they’ve played a fairly easy conference slate to date but the heat starts now as they face the top 5 teams in the league from this point on starting tonight.  The Cougs have also been a poor road team with a 3-7 mark and their 3 wins coming against 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the conference.  BYU’s two road games thus far against the top 5 teams in the league have resulted in losses to St Marys and San Francisco by margins of 22 & 19 points respectively.  Tonight they face a San Diego team that is every bit as good as those teams when healthy.  Last year a better BYU team traveled to San Diego as a 3-point favorite and lost by 13.  Two years ago the Cougs went to San Diego as a 10 point favorite and lost by 13.  Now they face a much better Torero team, with 4 starters back from the team that won by 13 here last year.  The host has now covered 8 of the last 9 and this sets up very nicely for San Diego.  This number is too low and we’ll take San Diego on Thursday Night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado -1 over Arizona State, Wednesday at 10:30 PM ET on Fox Sports 1

We were on ASU on Saturday night as they were a small favorite vs an undefeated (in Pac 12 play) Washington.  We thought the game set up very well with ASU coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to Washington St while UW was off a rare win @ Arizona.  On top of that a few of the Husky players were under the weather.  The game worked out as planned with the Devils rolling up a double digit win.  Now off that huge home win we’ll fade them here on the road.  Colorado is playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won 3 straight including back to back road wins @ UCLA & @ USC.  The Buffs have won 4 of their last 6 games and one of their losses came by 2 points to Oregon State in a game they led at half and was back and forth down the stretch.  They could easily on a 5-1 run right now.  CU is 8-2 at home this year and they’ve won 26 of their last 32 games here at the Coors Event Center.  Their offense has been MUCH better at home where they are shooting 49% and scoring 83 PPG and if you remove their one outlier road performance (95 points @ Air Force) the Buffs average just 68 PPG on the road.  Arizona State has been all over the board this year.  They’ve beaten the likes of Kansas, Washington, and Mississippi State this season.  They’ve also lost to Princeton, Washington State, and Vanderbilt.  Their losses to Princeton & Washington State came after huge wins over Kansas & Arizona.  We see a pattern here and would be surprised if the Sun Devils are at their best tonight after giving Washington their first conference loss.  These two met back in early January and CU played one of their worst games of the season in a 83-61 loss.  The Buffs shot 33% for the game while ASU hit nearly 58% of their shots.  That should give Colorado a little extra motivation tonight.  Just a few weeks ago the Buffs were laying -3 here vs Washington, easily the best team in the Pac 12.  Now they are laying just -1 vs Arizona State.  The host has covered 11 of the last 12 and we like Colorado to pick up another win.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Sacramento +7.5 over Denver, Wednesday at 9:05 PM ET

The Kings have been very good to us this season and continue to be under-valued by the oddsmakers. Sacramento is making a push for a playoff spot and the young talent of Bagley, Fox and Hield are starting to pay dividends for their draft status. The Kings and Nuggets have similar numbers defensive when it comes to efficiency ratings, but Denver is quite a bit better in offensive efficiency. Sacramento makes up for their lack of efficiency on offense by playing fast (4th). Denver had lost 3 in a row on a road trip then came home and caught the Heat in a perfect letdown situation the other night for a solid home win. The Kings defense has been much better of late as they’ve held their last five foes to just over 43% shooting. The same can’t be said for Denver who has allowed opponents to hit over 48% of their attempts in their last five. Sacramento hasn’t had much success in Denver, but they are a completely different team right now playing with confidence. Grab the generous points with the Kings who will keep this close throughout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Colorado State +3 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET on ESPN2

SDSU is simply not trustworthy as a road favorite.  This team isn’t nearly as good as past editions yet the continue to get respect as if they are.  The Aztecs are just 1-5 SU on the road in MWC play with their only win coming @ San Jose State who is one of the worst teams in the nation (ranked 342nd out of 351).  They have been a terrible road favorite this year as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games outright when laying points on the road.  Their most recent was last week when they were favored in this range @ New Mexico and lost by 13 (we were on New Mexico in that game).  It’s also a bad spot for SDSU as they are off a huge home win over Utah State (2nd ranked team in the MWC) and they have a big home revenger on deck vs Boise State this weekend.  Colorado State is just 4-7 in league play however they’ve faced the toughest schedule in league play.  Nearly half of their games have come against the top 3 teams in the league as they’ve already faced Nevada twice, Fresno twice, and Utah State once.  Of their 7 conference losses, 5 have come against the top 4 teams in the league.  The Rams are 3-2 at home in Mountain West play with their only losses coming to Nevada (best team in the league and one of the best in the nation) and by 2 points to Boise State (5th rated team in the conference).  They’ve also beaten Fresno (8-3 in conference play) here at Moby Arena.  San Diego State is ripe to go down AGAIN as a road favorite and we’ll be on Colorado State in this game. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -5.5 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9:00  PM ET

These two met just 2 weeks ago and Bama -2 came out on top 83-79 (we were on Bama in that game).  The Bulldogs are now backed into a corner at home in this one and this has become pretty much a must win spot.  MSU if off 2 straight down to the wire home losses vs two of the top three teams in the SEC.  Last week they lost in OT by 4 points to LSU and over the weekend they were ousted by a red hot Kentucky team by 4 points.  The Bulldogs were in a position to win both of those games but did not.  Now at 4-6 in league play, they need this win for their NCAA hopes.  Mississippi State has lost 4 of their last 6 games but those setbacks were vs Kentucky (twice), LSU, and this Alabama team on the road.  That is a tough stretch and the losses were not surprising.  After this game, MSU leaves for a 2 game road trip after this game so a loss could be devastating.  Bama comes in off 2 straight wins, however unlike MSU playing the top of the conference teams, the Tide beat Georgia & Vandy, the two lowest rated teams in the SEC.  They are 2-5 in road games this season with their only wins coming @ Vandy (lowest rated team in the SEC) and @ Mizzou in OT (4th lowest rated team in the SEC).  This is Alabama’s 2nd road game in 4 days after beating Vanderbilt on Saturday.  The Tide might also be without two key big man reserves tonight (Reese & Smith) who played key roles in their win over MSU a few weeks ago.  We think this sets up very nicely for the Bulldogs and we’ll lay the points here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 6:30 PM ET

Our power ratings have the Terps favored by 1 in this game so we’ll take the value as they are getting 2.5 points.  The closest comparison we can use was when Maryland was at home vs Wisconsin just a few weeks ago and the Terps were favored by -3.5 in that game.  This line is currently a full 6-points from where that line was released despite the fact that the Badgers and Boilers are dead even in our power ratings (even on a neutral court).  Maryland is just happy to be playing a home game (where they are 5-0 SU in Big 10 play) as they’ve been on the road for 5 of their last 6 games.  They’ve played just one home game since January 14th.  The Boilers, on the other hand, have been at home for 3 of their last 4 games.  They have played 5 conference road games this year and they are 3-2 in those games with 2 of those 3 wins coming in overtime.  However, on the road against the top 6 conference teams, Purdue has a 1-2 record with their only win @ Wisconsin in OT.  Tonight they face the 5th rated Big 10 team on the road and they have faced a top 6 team on the road since January 11th.  Purdue relies too heavily on the 3-pointer (40% of their points which ranks 14th nationally) and too much on 1 player Carsen Edwards.  While they have been very good, we have a feeling those two things will catch up with them on the road vs good teams.  The fact is Maryland is actually a better 3-point shooting team (#1 in the Big Ten at 39.7%) and they are facing a Purdue defense that doesn’t defend the arc very well allowing 37% (12th in the league).  The Terps are also the best rebounding team in the league by quite a large margin (+9 rebound margin) and they have been plus rebounds in every Big Ten game this season.  That should give them extra opportunities at home tonight and if they can slow down Purdue’s perimeter game, they should win this game.  If it comes down to FT’s down the stretch, also keep in mind Maryland is the best FT shooting team in the Big 10 at 76.3%.  These two met in early December when this young Maryland team was still finding their way and they almost pulled the upset in West Lafayette losing by 2.  Tonight they get the home win.  Take Maryland.

ASA play on: #568 Denver Nuggets -9.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – From a scheduling standpoint you couldn’t ask for a better situation to play on Denver and against Miami. The Heat are off a demoralizing loss at Golden State yesterday, playing tonight without rest in the higher altitude and this is their 3rd game in four nights. Denver on the other hand just suffered a 3-game road losing streak and saw their lead over OKC for the second spot in the West shrink to just 1 game and now trail Golden State by 3.  Denver has the leagues best home record of 23-4 SU and the second-best home differential of 12PPG. Prior to beating Portland on this current road trip, the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential (+.4), BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Miami is 4-3 SU when playing the second night of a back to back but this situation is different considering what they are coming off and where they play tonight. Miami was just +13.5 points at Golden State and +7 in Portland so you can see for yourself this line is too low based previous spreads. Denver is nearly equal to Golden State and we feel this line should be -11.5 or -12 at the very least. In fact, the Nuggets were recently -10 against Philly at home and are laying less here. The Nugs are on a 20-8 spread run at home and have covered 4 of their last five versus teams with winning road records. The bet here is clearly Denver!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Indiana -2 over Ohio State, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Both of these Big 10 teams started with high hopes but have fallen on hard times.  IU started the conference season with a 3-0 record and they now sit at 4-8.  OSU was 2-0 the start Big 10 play and they are now 5-6.  The Hoosiers are just 1-8 their last 9 games but they’ve played an extremely tough stretch facing the top 6 teams in the Big Ten 6 times in their last 9 games.  They have proven they have the talent to beat good teams as they’ve topped Louisville, Marquette, Butler, and Michigan State.  Their win over MSU was last weekend and it was in East Lansing.  IU is off a tight home loss vs Iowa on Thursday and they hit the road for 2 of their next 3 games so this is a big one for the Hoosiers.  Ohio State hit a 5 game losing skid in January but they have since won 3 of 4.  Don’t be fooled as their wins have come against the Big Ten’s bottom feeders (Penn St, Rutgers, and Nebraska).  The Bucks are just 1-3 SU on true conference road games and shooting just 40% away from home averaging only 62 PPG.  Despite their struggles this year, Indiana is still a solid 10-3 at home where they shoot over 51% and allow just 40%.  OSU is on the road for the first time this month after holding on to a 4-point win at home on Thursday vs a 1-11 Penn State team.  The Bucks beat IU here in OT last year giving the Hoosiers a little extra motivation.  IU was favored by -2.5 on Thursday vs Iowa who is a much better team than OSU yet Indiana is laying only -2 here.  We’ve got a feeling Indiana comes to play here and picks up an easy win. 

ASA 10* CBB P:LAY ON Arizona State +1.5 over Washington, Saturday at 10:00 PM ET - On ESPN

Most will look at this game and this line and immediately take Washington right?  The Huskies are a perfect 10-0 and in first place by a full 4 games over this ASU team, Oregon St, USC, and Utah who all come in at 6-4.  We’re getting very nice value here with the line because of what happened just a few nights ago.  Washington traveled to Arizona as a +2.5 point underdog and won the game 67-60.  The Huskies hit 51% of their shots with Arizona making only 37% and despite that disparity it was still a fairly tight game.  It was a huge win for UW as they had not won @ Arizona since 2012.  Arizona State, on the other hand, was obviously peaking ahead to this game as they played their worst game of the season losing big at home to Washington State.  That has been ASU’s blueprint this year as they have played some poor games vs bad teams but when motivated and playing a top notch team, they’ve had some very good performances.  This year they’ve beaten Kansas, Mississippi State, Georgia, Oregon, and Arizona this season to name a few.  With their loss earlier this week, ASU has now officially moved off the NCAA bubble with a NET ranking of 61.  This is now a HUGE game for the home team and not so much for Washington.  We spoke of line value earlier and here is what we mean.  Just 2 nights ago UW was a 2.5 point dog @ Arizona and now they are favored at spots @ ASU despite the fact the Devils and Wildcats are rated nearly dead even.  The recent results have swung this line 3 to 4 points at some spots from where it probably should be.  As we said Washington is on the road for the 2nd time in 3 days and they have a huge 4 game lead in the Pac 12.  They are also not at 100% as 3 or 4 key players had flu like symptoms on Thursday night (they played) but we feel that will affect them more in this game as they continue on the road.  Also starter Noah Dickerson was forced to come off the bench due to a sprained ankle which is not fully healed.  The Huskies are not going to run the table in the Pac 12 in our opinion and this is a great spot for them to fall.  Take Arizona State at home.

ASA 10* play on: Sacramento Kings -3 over Miami Heat, 10PM ET – The Kings have been very good to us this season and we’re not about to abandon them in this situation. Sacramento had won 3 straight at home against Atlanta, Philly and San Antonio before a blowout loss to the Rockets on Wednesday. In other words, two quality wins over playoff teams in the 76ers and Spurs. The letdown game against the Rockets is excusable as the players were dealing with rumors of potential trades, along with a big win over the Spurs in the previous game. Now they are home, off a bad loss against an average team from the East (West has dominated the East overall this season).  Miami meanwhile is coming off a big upset win in Portland as a 7-point underdog. Prior to that win the Heat were 9-6 SU their last fifteen on the road which accounts for a solid road point differential, BUT only one of those nine wins came against teams with a current winning record (Clippers). On the season the Heat have just three total road wins over teams with an above .500 record right now. Sacramento is 7-1 SU their last eight at home and 10-4 SU their last fourteen with the four losses coming against the best teams in the West (Warriors, Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets).  Easy call here with the Kings at home minus the short number.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Memphis +4.5 over Cincinnati, Thurs at 7 PM ET

We think this is a very dangerous spot for the Bearcats.  They are coming off back to back down to the wire wins over Temple (by 4) and SMU (by 5).  They are now on the road vs a hungry Memphis team that is off back to back road losses.  On top of that, Cincy travels to Houston on Saturday and those two are currently tied for first place in the AAC with 8-1 records.  The Bearcats are obviously a very solid team however they’ve also played the easiest schedule thus far in the AAC.   Through 9 games they’ve only played 2 of the top 6 teams in the conference.  They went to the wire in both of those games beating UConn in OT at home and winning at Temple by 4.  Now they face a Memphis team in that top 6 (power ratings) that is a bit desperate.  The Tigers left in their 2 game road trip with a 5-2 AAC record and returned at 5-4.  That wasn’t really a surprising development as the Tigers are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  But if you get Memphis at home, they look like a completely different team.  They are 11-1 at home this year with their only loss coming at the hands of #1 Tennessee.  The Tigers average 90 PPG at home and they’ve covered 8 of their 12 games here.  Cincy is vulnerable on the road.  They’ve come up with some tight wins vs lower tier AAC teams and a loss @ East Carolina (the 11th rated team in this 12 team league).  Cincy averages just 67 PPG on the road this season and facing a high scoring Memphis team at home has upset written all over it.  The home team has won 8 of the last 9 in this series and we’ll call for Memphis to get another here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Mississippi State -3 over LSU, Wed at 9:00 PM ETt

The Tigers have only one loss in SEC play (7-1 record) but they are a bit overvalued at this point in our opinion.  They have played the EASIEST schedule in the conference thus far having not faced a single one of the top 5 teams in the SEC (power ratings) besides themselves (Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida).  LSU is 4-0 on the road in SEC play but their wins have come @ Texas A&M (lowest rated team in the SEC), @ Mizzou in OT (Tigers are 2-7 in conference play), @ Arkansas in OT, and @ Ole Miss.  Two wins as you see came in OT and only one of those teams has a current winning record in conference play and that is Arkansas at 5-4.  Speaking of the Razors they just played LSU in their rematch in Baton Rouge and came away with a 90-89 win.  It wasn’t that close as Arkansas pulled out to a huge 18 point lead in the 2nd half and held off LSU’s furious rally.  The Tigers made 32 FT’s in that game to just 7 for Arkansas and STILL lost.  We think that home game was a red flag as LSU now starts to play better teams and might struggle on the road.  Mississippi State is 4-4 in league play but they’ve faced the much tougher slate and this is now a huge 3 game home stretch which could get the Bulldogs right back in the race.   They have some momentum here after beating rival Ole Miss on the road last Saturday.  The Dogs are also very good at home averaging 85 PPG on over 50% shooting with a near perfect 10-1 mark.  MSU has already beaten 2 of the top 5 teams at home (Auburn & Florida) and 8 of their 10 home wins have come by double digits.  We’ve been on this situation a few times this year with an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team and cashed in.  Last night was one of those wins with Kansas State topping Kansas.  We expect another W tonight with Mississippi State.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON New Mexico +2 over San Diego State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On ESPN2

The Lobos have played one of the toughest schedules in the MWC having already faced the top 3 teams in the league (Nevada, Utah State, and Fresno).  They are just 3-6 but we feel they are undervalued because of that.  They have played 4 of their last 6 games on the road which included a 97-77 loss @ San Diego State.  The Aztecs lit it up at home that night making 55% of their shots and 91% of their FT’s.  That was the Lobos worst loss in conference play this year so they will have plenty of motivation here.  Because of that result, we may also get a look ahead from SDSU who has a huge home game on deck with 2nd place Utah State.  The Aztecs are playing their 2nd straight road game for the first time this season.  They are off a win @ San Jose State who is the worst team in the MWC and one of the worst teams in the nation (339th nationally out of 351 teams).  It was an unimpressive 11-point win over a team that is 0-9 in the league and has lost by an average margin of 81-59.  Despite that win vs a poor team, the Aztecs have been a poor road team going just 1-3 away from home in conference play with a point differential of -31.  In their home games New Mexico has played very well for the most part.  They beat Nevada here by a final score of 85-58!  That’s a Nevada team that is currently 21-1.  In their most recent home game, the Lobos took the 2nd best team in the MWC, Utah State, to the wire losing 68-66.  San Diego State is nowhere near as good as either of those teams and we’re getting them in a tough spot.  SDSU has covered just 3 of their last 12 games dating back  to last season including a loss @ New Mexico last year as a 2-point favorite.  Similar spot here and we’ll call for the Lobos to win at home on Tuesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Kansas State -2.5 over Kansas, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN

Simply put, this is the most important game of the season for KSU.  They have lost 8 straight to the Jayhawks and the Cats know this is their best shot in awhile.  Going back to the start of the 2000 season, the Cats have been an underdog 40 consecutive games vs KU until today.  Now we have the unranked home team favored over the #13 Jayhawks which is a situation we always like to take a strong look at.  KSU has a huge edge experience wise in this game as they start all upperclassmen including 3 seniors while the Jayhawks will be starting 3 freshman tonight who will be playing their first game ever at Bramlage Coliseum.  Not only are the Wildcats experienced, those upperclassmen have been very successful including a run to the Elite 8 last season.  The one thing they haven’t done in their careers is beat Kansas so that was one of their top goals entering the season. After a slow start to the Big 12 season (lost first 2 games), KSU has won 6 straight conference games including wins over Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma.  They are 9-1 at home this season and they’ve won 24 of their last 28 here at Bramlage.  This young Kansas team, on the other hand, is trending downward having lost 3 of their last 5 games.  They are just 1-5 in true road games this year and they’ve been outscored by an average of 6 PPG on the road.  It also looks like Kansas will be short handed tonight with starting guard/forward Marcus Garrett most likely sitting out his 2nd straight game with an ankle injury.  The veteran Cats have been waiting for this one and we like them to take care of business at home tonight.  Take Kansas State.

ASA play on: #542 Sacramento Kings +2 over San Antonio Spurs, 10PM ET – We’ve won a lot this year playing on the Kings and will add to your bankroll with another wager on them tonight. Sacramento is a young, fun and exciting team on the rise in the NBA this season. The Kings sit 9th in the West and are just 1-game behind the Clippers for the 8th and final playoff spot. Sacramento is 16-10 SU at home on the season and have won 6 straight on their own floor. Prior to the 6-game home winning streak they had lost two games to the Warriors and Nuggets (arguably the 2 best teams in the NBA) by 4-point each. Now they face a Spurs team that is just 10-15 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of minus -2.4PPG which is right around the league average. Not to mention, that most of the Spurs 10 road wins have come against teams in the bottom half of the league. In fact, only 3 of the Spurs 10 road wins came against teams with winning overall records. San Antonio is just 4-3 ATS as a small favorite in this price range, the Kings are 6-3 ATS as a small dog in this price range. Sacramento keeps the positive momentum rolling after a big home win over the 76ers on Saturday with another home win here. Take Sacramento!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Illinois State (pick-em) over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 10 PM ET on ESPN2 - MVC GAME OF THE MONTH

These two met a few weeks ago in Loyola and ISU played the Ramblers toe to toe in a 67-64 loss.  The stats were almost even across the board and the Redbirds nearly pulled the upset at a 9-point dog.  It was a solid performance against a Loyola team that tends to handle teams easily at home with 8 of their 10 home wins coming by more than 10 points.  Since that game Illinois State is 4-1 and playing their best basketball of the season.  The Redbirds now sit at 6-3 in MVC play just 1 game behind Loyola who is in 1st place.  They come into this home revenge spot off an easy 69-55 road won over a very good Drake team.  Now they come home to face a team they’ve been waiting for.  This is the Birds biggest home game of the season.  Last year they lost two tight games to Loyola during the regular season and then the two met in the MVC Championship game and the Ramblers won again to secure their automatic bid to the NCAA tourney.  They then went on to the Final 4 in a to end a remarkable season.  Illinois State did not make a post-season tourney but return nearly every key player from that team last season.  They want this one badly.  ISU is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 3 seniors and a junior in the starting lineup.  They have 2 all conference caliber seniors in Milik Yarborough (17 PPG & 7 RPG) and Phil Fayne (16 PPG & 6 RPG).  They are facing a Loyola team that is nowhere near as good as last season.  The Ramblers already have 2 more losses (8) than they had all of last season (6).  They’ve also shown a tendency to play poorly at times on the road as they’ve already been blown out twice in league play away from home (lost 70-35 @ Southern Illinois in their most recent home game & lost @ Evansville 67-48).  Those two losses came against teams that are currently in the lower half the MVC with records of 4-5 and 3-6 respectively.  Now they face one of the top teams in the league in big time revenge mode.  Loyola will also be without one of their key players and top defender Lucas Williamson who injured his hand and has been out the last 3 games.  It should be an electric atmosphere at Redbird Arena for this 9 PM local start to be seen on ESPN2.  We’ll call for ISU to get their much awaited revenge and roll to an easy win on Saturday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UW Milwaukee +7 over UW Green Bay, Friday at 8:00 PM ET

These two met in the Horizon League opener back in late December and UWGB won 92-82 on the road.  That continued a trend in this rivalry of the road team covering at a high rate – now 10-3 ATS last 13 meetings.  The first meeting was closer than the final score might indicate as it was a 4-point game with just 1:30 remaining.  UWGB shot 50% in that game with UWM making only 43% of their shots.  Green Bay was also +17 points at the FT line.  The 10-point final margin was the largest margin of the game for either team.  That game was over a month ago and these two teams have changed quite a bit since then.  In fact, we believe Milwaukee is now the better team.  They’ve continued to improve while we feel UWGB has taken a step back since that meeting.  Over the last 6 games (they’ve played the same teams during that stretch), UWM is shooting 44% while allowing their opponents to shoot just 39%.  The Panthers are 3-3 over that stretch (5-1 ATS) scoring 68 PPG and allowing 68 PPG.  UWGB over that same stretch vs the same teams is shooting 44% while allowing their opponent to hit 50% of their shots.  The Phoenix are 1-5 over that span (1-5 ATS) scoring 77 PPG but allowing 88 PPG.  UWGB is -48 on the boards over that 6 game stretch while UWM is -21 on the glass.  Again, keep in mind that 6 game stretch they played the same teams so we are comparing apples to apples here.  The Panthers are definitely the better team right now and they are getting significant points and have revenge for motivation.  We like UW Milwaukee on Friday night.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -6 over UTSA, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CUSA GAME OF THE MONTH

We love the way this one sets up.  WKY is off a road loss @ La Tech and that dropped them to 4-4 in Conference USA.  They are much better than their record as the are currently 7th in CUSA yet rated as the 2nd best team in the conference behind Old Dominion.  They easily have the most talent on the league with 3 potential NBA players (Bassey, Hollingsworth, and Bearden) on the roster right now.  If properly motivated the Hilltoppers are the best team in the league.  They’ve already beaten the likes of Wisconsin, Arkansas, West Virginia, and St Marys in the non-conference portion of their schedule.  This team’s goal is to win CUSA and they come in at 4-4 so we expect them to be very motivated at home coming off a loss.  They’ve played the 2nd most difficult schedule in conference play so far and now they start a stretch of playing teams they should beat and beat handily.  It starts on Thursday when they host UTSA.  The Roadrunners are 6-2 in conference play so 2 full games ahead of WKY.  That makes this a near must win for the Hilltoppers.  Unlike WKY, the Roadrunners have played the EASIEST strength of schedule so far in league play.  Only 3 of their 8 conference games have been played against the top half  (7) of the league.  Those game resulted in 2 last second wins at home (by 1 & 2 points) and a double digit road loss.  One of those games was last Saturday when UTSA came back from a 17 point deficit with under 4:00 minutes remaining to beat ODU by 1.  We were on UTSA and we’ll count that as a lucky win to say the least.  Now off that incredible comeback the Roadrunners take the road where they are 1-2 in CUSA play.  They beat UTEP by 4 (the 3rd worst team in the league), lost @ MTSU (the WORST team in the league), and lost at UAB.  UTSA shoots just 39% in their road games this year and facing the 2nd most efficient defense in CUSA on Thursday will be a problem.  The Toppers lost @ UTSA as a 7 point favorite last year so you can add that to the motivation we already expect them to have tonight.  We really like Western Kentucky here and expect a double digit win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Tulsa +2.5 over Memphis, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

Great spot for Tulsa here in our opinion.  They are just 2-6 in AAC play, however they’ve played the toughest schedule thus far in conference play.  The Golden Hurricane have lost 3 straight but those 3 losses were to the 3 best teams in the AAC (Houston, Cincinnati, and UCF).  The two best teams in the AAC are Houston & Cincy and Tulsa has already played them both twice.  They are 10-2 with their only 2 home losses coming at the hands of Cincy in OT & Houston.  This is a big game for the Hurricane as 3 of their next 4 come on the road.  Memphis is 13-7 overall but they’ve only played 4 true road games the entire year.  They are 1-3 in those games and their lone road win was tight 4-point win over a Tulane team that is ranked below 300 and is just 4-15 on the season.  The Tigers are coming off a huge home win over UCF and they have a big road match up with USF this weekend.  Tulsa has a big edge from beyond the arc as they are hitting 38% in conference play while Memphis makes just 28%.  Even worse on the road for the Tigers where they hit just 25% from deep.  Because they aren’t a great outside shooting team, the Tigers get most of their points inside the arc but they are facing a Tulsa defense that allows opponents to make only 47% of their shots (55th nationally).  They also hold opponents to scoring just 45% of their points from 2-point land which is in the top 40 nationally.  Memphis isn’t used to the role of road favorite and they haven’t been very good in this spot covering just 3 of their last 9 when laying points on the road.  Just playing away from home in general has been tough for the Tigers as they’ve won only won 6 of their last 19 road games.  Since these two joined the AAC, they’ve faced off 3 times here in Tulsa with the Hurricane winning all 3 by double digits.  We like Tulsa getting points at home here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -2.5 over Marquette, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET

This is a massively important game for Butler.  They come into this game 12-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big East.  They are coming off 2 straight losses to Villanova (the top team in the Big East) and @ Creighton.  The Bulldogs are better than their record in our opinion.  They are currently tied for 6th place in the league yet their power rating has them as the 3rd best team in the Big East behind Villanova and Marquette.  Speaking of the Golden Eagles, we feel they are overvalued at this point in the season.  They are ranked 9th in the country yet their power rating has them at 34th.  They’ve played on 5 road games the entire season (3-2 record) and this is the first back to back road game of the year.  Their defense on the road has been very poor allowing 88 PPG on 52% shooting.  After losing by 20 @ St Johns to open the Big East season, the Eagles have won 7 straight.  However they’ve had a number of tight games with 4 of their 7 conference wins coming by 5 points or less.  They have also played the easiest schedule thus far in the Big East.  Of their 8 conference games, 6 have been played vs the bottom 5 teams in the league in terms of power ratings.  On Saturday they traveled to Xavier where they rallied from 11 down in the 2nd half to pick up the 87-82 win.  The Eagles shoot the 3 ball a lot.  They have very little inside game.  36% of their points come from deep but they may have problems here vs a Butler defense that is #1 in the Big East at defending the arc allowing just 34% in conference play.  The Bulldogs might be without starter McDermott in this game but we often find teams rise to the occasion in the first game with a rotation player on the bench.  Butler has been favored by at least 5 points in 4 straight meetings at Hinkle and we’re laying a much smaller number here.  The Bulldogs are also 9-1-2 ATS their last 12 games vs Marquette.  We really like spots like this with a desperate unranked team at home yet favored over a top 10 team.  That should tell you something.  Butler is the side here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UNLV +9.5 over Nevada, Tuesday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

We like UNLV at home getting significant points in this rivalry.  Nevada is 19-1 and ranked in the top 10 and deservedly so.  However, they simply haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home.  They are 6-1 in MWC play but their tight games have been on the road.  They are 2-1 in MWC games on the road losing @ New Mexico by 27 points, winning @ Fresno by 10 (it was a 5-point game with 2:00 minutes remaining), and then won @ Boise by 1 point.  Their conference wins at home have come by margins of 15, 23, 39, and 40 points so a big difference in road vs home performance.  UNLV is a perfect 4-0 at home in league play.  They are 11-8 overall and 5-2 in conference play.  The Rebels have their flaws but they are a solid, scary opponent, especially at home getting significant points.  They have had some injuries in their frontcourt and have turned to a 3-guard lineup that shoots the 3 very well.  They are #1 in the MWC in league play hitting almost 42% of their triples.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they because of their solid guard play, they turn the ball over fewer than anyone else in the MWC.  While Nevada is very good defensively, the one thing they are not at the head of the class in the conference is defending the 3 point line (5th in the league).  UNLV should be able to take advantage of that.  This line is too high in our opinion.  Part of that might be that Nevada is coming off a 40-point blowout home win (vs Colorado St) and UNLV off a 27-point blowout road loss (@ San Diego St).  Those results set this one up nicely for the home team.  Last year when Nevada played here they were favored by just -1.5.  Now they are laying nearly double digits.  Value on the home team and we’ll take UNLV.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Vanderbilt +9.5 over Kentucky, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

The Wildcats are off an impressive home win over Kansas and taking on a Vandy team that is 0-6 in the SEC and coming off a blowout loss @ Oklahoma on Saturday.  So Kentucky’s the play here right?  It looks pretty easy to jump on the Cats here but we think Vanderbilt is in a great spot to give UK all they can handle.  First of all these two have already met this year and Kentucky won by 9 at home as a 12.5 point favorite.  Now they are laying nearly that number on the road just a few weeks later so the line value is definitely with Vanderbilt here.  In that first game Kentucky shot 50% from the field and held the Commodores to just 36% yet the Wildcats NEVER had the spread covered during the game.  Not once.  Their biggest lead was 11.  Vandy knows they can play tight with Kentucky because they did just that in Rupp Arena.  UK may overlook this game coming off their much anticipated game with Kansas over the weekend.  Also, the fact they’ve already beaten the Dores AND they have a big game @ Florida on deck.  Vanderbilt is off an embarrassing effort on Saturday losing by 29 points @ Oklahoma.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as they were coming off a OT home loss to #1 Tennessee prior to traveling to OU.  In their game against the Vols, Vanderbilt actually led by 6 with just 1:30 remaining but lost in OT.  This team knows they can play with the best in the SEC as they’ve already played toe to toe with both Tennessee & Kentucky.  This has been a very close series as of late with the last 5 games all being decided by single digits.  Vandy is 13-3-1 ATS their last 17 vs Kentucky and we think they get another cover here.  We actually like the host to give Kentucky a scare in this one and the points are worth taking.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1.5 over Mississippi State, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We released Bama as a play last week in a similar situation vs Ole Miss and picked up an easy 21 point win.  The Crimson Tide is coming off a tight loss @ Baylor in the SEC / Big 12 Challenge over the weekend.  Bama played very well on the road against one of the better teams in the Big 12.  Baylor never led by more than 6 points and Alabama had the lead with 4:30 remaining.  The loss dropped them to 2-3 their last 5 games but they are playing as well as they have all season despite that mark.  Their losses during this stretch came by 1-point on a last second 3-pointer vs A&M, a 3-point loss at #1 Tennessee, and their close setback @ Baylor.  It’s not crazy to say they could very easily be 5-0 their last 5 facing very good competition.  Just as the Ole Miss game was last week, this is a huge home game for Bama.  They sit at 3-3 in the SEC and they played 3 of their next 4 games on the road. They have already beaten Kentucky, Arizona, and Ole Miss here at Coleman Coliseum and Mississippi State is next.  The Bulldogs are in a rough spot here.  They had one of the biggest home games of the season last Saturday as they upended Auburn and they have a huge revenge game on Saturday vs arch rival Ole Miss who beat MSU on the road just a few weeks ago.  The Dogs are just 1-2 SU on the road in SEC play with their only win @ Vandy.  MSU averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting overall for the season, however in their road games that drops to just 68 PPG on 40% from the field.  We really like this match up as Bama should control the boards (#1 in the SEC both offensive & defensive rebounding).  They also shoot the 3 well, especially at home, and they are facing an MSU defense that ranks 12th in the league defending the arc.  We really like Alabama in this spot.

ASA play on: Detroit Pistons +8 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – The Bucks are coming off a loss in Oklahoma City and haven’t lost two consecutive games this season. BUT they must win this game by 8 or more points, and we don’t think they’ll do that. Let’s talk about value here first. The Bucks hosted the Pistons on January 1st and were -10 points at home. In mid-December the Bucks were a -3-point favorite in Detroit and won 107-104. You can see for yourself the over-adjustment the oddsmakers have made on tonight’s number. Milwaukee also has a MUCH bigger game on deck in Toronto and may get caught looking past a team they just beat by 23 a few weeks ago. Detroit is well rested here with their last game being on January 25th in Dallas. They are 21-27 SU on the season and It’s becoming a dire situation if they want to make the playoffs this season. Of their 27 losses this season, fourteen have come by 8 or less points. They have an overall negative differential of -2.6PPG on the season, +.1 at home. The Bucks have failed to cover 4 straight games which is a sign the lines are catching up to them. The Pistons are the play here and they will get their 7th cover in their last nine games.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Fairfield +1.5 over Iona, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Iona steps into this game in 2nd place in the MAAC with a 5-2 record.  Fairfield is tied with Manhattan for last place with a 2-6 record.  The line opened Iona -1.5 and despite the fact the Gaels are receiving over 70% of the wagers, the line has dropped to -1 and a number of shops.  That’s always a signal to take a strong look as more money is coming in on the team that is getting less than 30% of the overall wagers.  This is one of those games we’ve talked about where the “obvious” pick for those that don’t follow closely would be to take Iona simply to win the game and that shows up in the percentage of wagers we discussed above.  That’s too easy.  While Iona is currently in 2nd place they are far from a solid team ranking 218th nationally and they have just a 7-11 record overall.  Going on the road has been tough for them as they have covered only 1 of their last 11 away from home.  They are just 1-7 SU this year in true road games and if you add neutral games into the mix Iona is just 2-10 SU on the season.  Iona is coming off a huge win just 2 days ago (Friday) beating 1st place Rider in a tight game at home.  Now they hit the road a face a team they already beat a few weeks ago.  Speaking of that game in early January, Iona was favored by 5 points and won 94-87 at home.  First of all that tells us that Fairfield should be favored by about -3 based on the first meeting a short time ago.  Secondly, the way that game played out will have Fairfield extra motivated for this rematch.  That’s because Fairfield blew a 51-39 halftime lead and the Stags still led with 2:00 minutes remaining before Iona pulled away for the 7 point win.  Both teams took 64 shots and made 31.  Fairfield, a solid 3-point shooting team, took advantage of Iona’s terrible 3-point defense (331st nationally) making 16 from deep (just 10 for Iona).  The rebounds were pretty much dead even.  The difference?  Fairfield was “homered” by the refs getting called for 25 personal fouls leading to a +13 edge a the line for Iona.  We don’t expect the officials to be quite as biased toward Iona here @ Fairfield.  The host has won 9 of the last 10 meetings outright and we’ll grab Fairfield as a home dog today.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford -1.5 over Colorado, Saturday a 8:00 PM ET

The Cardinal were in a similar spot a few weeks ago at home vs Arizona State and we jumped on Stanford and picked up an easy win.  In that spot, Stanford was off a tight home loss to Arizona and was in a must win spot for ASU before going on the road for 2 games.  They were a short underdog in that game and handled the Sun Devils 85-71.  Now the Cardinal are off a 70-66 home loss at the hands of Utah in a game that was tied with 1:00 minute left to play in the game.  Utah shot 64% from beyond the arc which was the difference.  No shame losing to a red hot Utah team that is 4-2 in the Pac 12 with their only losses coming @ Arizona in OT and @ Washington who is 6-0 in league play.  Similar to a few weeks ago, Stanford is now backed into a corner with a 2-5 conference record and they leave on a 3 game road trip after this match up.  This is a must win for Stanford.  They are much better than their overall & conference record in our opinion.  First of all they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to get them ready for league play facing the likes of Kansas (lost @ KU in OT), North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida.  Meanwhile Colorado played one of the easiest non-conference slates facing a grand total of ONE top 100 team which resulted in a loss to San Diego.  In Pac 12 play, the tough slate has continued for Stanford as they’ve faced 5 of the 6 teams that are currently in 1st, 2nd or 3rd place in the conference.  Colorado comes in with a 2-4 record in league play and their 2 wins have come against the two worst teams in the Pac 12, Washington State & Cal.  One of those wins came on Thursday night at Cal who is easily the worst team in the Pac 12 with an 0-7 league mark and 5-14 overall.  It was a game the Buffs were trailing with under 7:00 minutes remaining and led by just 4 with under 45 seconds remaining so the 11-point win was deceiving.  CU shot 51% from the field and Cal just 38% and the game still went to the wire.  Now off that win, Colorado plays their 3rd road game in 7 days (@ Utah, @ Cal, @ Stanford).  We really like the match for Stanford as well.  Neither team shoots the 3 particularly well and both prefer to score inside the arc.  The Cardinal hit 55% of their 2-point shots in league play (2nd in the conference) and Stanford doesn’t defend well inside the arc allowing 55% in league play (9th in the conference).   On the other side the Cardinal defend very well inside the arc (3rd in the Pac 12) while CU doesn’t shoot all that well from 2-point range (9th in the league).  This game sets up very, very well for the home team and we’re sitting at a number where they basically just have to win.  Take Stanford.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UTSA (pick-em) over Old Dominion, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

ODU checks in at 16-5 overall and they sit in first place in CUSA with a 6-2 record.  That being said, we think this team is overvalued right now.  They played one of the easiest non-conference slates in the nation (329th ranked SOS) and despite their 6 wins in league play, they’ve been far from dominant.  They’ve had one easy win in CUSA play and their other five wins have come by margins of 1, 1, 2, 3, and 6 points.  The Monarchs are 3-1 on the road in conference play but all of those games have come against the lower 6 teams in the league and all came down to the wire.  This is also a rough scheduling spot as ODU is playing their 3 road game in 7 days here.  They beat Charlotte by 6 on Sunday (Charlotte is 5-14 overall) and they barely got by UTEP on Thursday winning by 2 (UTEP is 6-12 on the year).  Now they face the best team they’ve seen on the road in CUSA this year.  UTSA is 5-2 in conference play, a half game behind Old Dominion.  The Roadrunners have won 8 of their last 10 with their only losses coming on the road.  They are rested and ready for this one after cruising to a 45 point win over Charlotte on Thursday night.  Yes you read that correctly and that’s the same Charlotte team that ODU struggled to beat last Sunday.  Not only are they playing well right now, but UTSA has been waiting for this one.  These two met just once last year and it resulted in UTSA’s most embarrassing performance of the season, a 100-62 loss @ ODU.  The Roadrunners were a decent team last year (20-15 record) but just played horribly in all aspects in that one.   UTSA is a talented offensive team (#1 in CUSA in offensive efficiency in conference games) that will be sky high vs an ODU team that struggles to score at times (67 PPG average).  The host gets their revenge vs a team that simply isn’t as good as their record may indicate. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ole Miss -1 over Iowa State, Saturday at 12:00 Noon ET

This is a game we’ve had our eyes on for a few weeks simply because of the situation.  There is obviously more to it than that, but this is a terrible spot for ISU.  The Cyclones are coming off a road game @ Kansas which is one of their most important games of the season.  They topped KU a few weeks ago at home but lost a tight one this week in Lawrence 80-76.  It was an emotional roller-coaster type game for ISU who led at half, got down by 8 with just 4:00 minutes remaining, battled back to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to lose by 4.  We feel this will be a tough spot for the Cyclones to be on the road again in a somewhat meaningless non-conference game as they have their sights set on the Big 12 Title.  Iowa State is always tough to beat at home, however on the road this year they have a 2-3 record with their wins coming down to the wire as well (won by 6 & 4 points).  Ole Miss should be extra motivated here off perhaps their worst effort of the season, a 21-point loss @ Alabama (we were on the Tide).  That game set up very nicely for an underrated Bama team who was 2-3 in conference play and almost in a must win spot vs the Rebels.  Ole Miss is happy to be back home where they are 8-1 on the season (only loss to red hot LSU) shooting over 51% here at home while allowing just 40% to their opponents.  They should control the interior here as the Rebs are very good at scoring inside (22nd in shooting percentage inside the arc) and very good at keeping teams from scoring inside (20th nationally in defensive shoot percentage inside the arc).  That means ISU will have to be hot from deep which is always tough on the road, especially in a venue none of them are used to.  Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as a dog this year and they’ve been tabbed a home dog just once vs a very good Auburn team.  The Rebs dominated that game 82-67.  Mississippi head coach Kermit Davis said their loss to Bama was one of the few times that his team was “out toughed” this year so you can expect a great effort in their bounce back game on Saturday.   

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON BYU +1.5 over St Marys, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This is a revenger from a game played @ St Marys back on January 5th.  The Gaels were favored by 6 in that game and now favored on the road just a few weeks later.  Based on that first number, BYU should be a 2 point favorite here.  The first game was an 88-66 blowout win for St Marys which is a contributing factor to why they are now favored on the road.  The loss should have BYU extra motivated here as they played very poorly shooting just 40% from the field (55% for St Marys) and just 6 of 17 from 3-point land.  After losing their WCC opener @ San Francisco, the Gaels have ripped off 4 straight wins – 3 of those coming at home.  Their only road win in conference play was @ Loyola Marymount who is 2-3 in league play.  Overall St Marys is just 1-2 in true road games and 3-5 in road/neutral games.  BYU is 9-1 at home and just happy to be back at the Marriott Center as 7 of their last 9 games have been played away from home.  The Cougs are 4-2 in WCC play and this is a huge game for them kicking off a 3 game homestand which includes a date with Gonzaga.  They are winning their home games by an average score of 83-67 and they really step in up defensively at the Marriott Center holding opposing teams to just 39% from the field.  Provo has proven to be a very tough place for teams to come in and win as BYU has won 37 of their last 40 games here.  It’s not often we get BYU as a home dog and we’ll jump on it.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Western Kentucky -1.5 over Southern Miss, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET - CONERENCE USA GAME OF THE MONTH

These two teams have very similar records with Western Kentucky coming in at 10-9 (3-3 on Conference USA play) while Southern Miss sits at 11-8 (3-4 in CUSA play).  However, we feel WKY is the much better team and we’re getting some solid value laying only a point or two in this game.  Western’s 3 conference losses have come by 1, 1, and 3 points.  Two of those losses came at the hands for Old Dominion (rated #1 in CUSA) & Marshall (#4 in CUSA), two of the top 4 teams in CUSA (Western is the #2 rated team in the conference).  USM’s conference losses have come by 18, 15, 8, and 3 points.  The Eagles wins have come by 3, 5, and 7 points with two of those games played against Middle Tennessee State & Charlotte, two of the three teams in CUSA.  Southern Miss has 11 wins as we mentioned however ZERO of those wins have come against teams ranked inside the top 100 and only one of those wins came against a team ranked inside the top 150 and that game took place on November 11th (win over SMU).  Nine of their eleven wins have come against teams ranked 200 or lower including 3 vs non-division 1 opponents who are not ranked at all.  The Hilltoppers, on the other hand, have beaten Wisconsin, St Marys, Arkansas (on the road) and West Virginia (neutral site).  They have a huge edge defensively (2nd in CUSA in defensive efficiency in conference games) over the Eagles who are a poor defensive team (13th in CUSA defensive efficiency in conference games).  WKY should also have a large advantage on the boards as USM is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation.  The Eagles are the shortest team in the nation with only one regular contributor taller than 6’5.  Their rebounding margin in their 7 conference game is -36 while WKY is +36 on the boards in their 6 league games.  Western has dominated this series winning 4 straight all by double digits including last year’s wins by 16 & 17 points.  Southern Miss has not had a big home court advantage with a record of just 20-18 SU @ Reed Coliseum since the start of the 2016 season (minus non-division 1 opponents).  Because of USM’s +.500 record this year vs terrible competition, we’re getting WKY as the lowest number they’ve laid in this series since 2013.  Hilltoppers cruise here.      

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON UMass -3.5 over St Bonaventure, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

A few weeks ago we grabbed St Bonnies at home vs St Joes as a Top Play and the Bonnies won in a rout.  We felt they were undervalued as their record was poor but they were getting some players back and finally at full strength.  Since that win they are just 1-2 with their only win coming against Fordham who is 0-5 in league play.  The Bonnies also now have some more injurie issues and they are in a terrible situational spot here.  They are coming off a double OT loss at home on Saturday to Dayton.  It was a game St Bonaventure led by 10 in the 2nd half and felt they should have won making this an emotionally tough spot for them on the road.  They were down 2 starters in that game (Kaputo & Poyser) both with concussion issues leaving this team very thin.  They have almost no bench right now leaving their starters to play 50, 48, 47, 46, and 35 minutes on Saturday.  On top of that the Bonnies are 0-6 this year in true road games and if you add in their neutral site games, they are 1-9.  They are also 0-8-1 ATS their last 9 true road games.  UMass is 0-5 in league play yet favored by 3.5 here which is a buy sign in our opinion.  They are better than their A10 record as they’ve been very competitive with some of the top teams in the league losing by 3 @ St Louis (currently 5-0 in first place in A10), by 5 @ Dayton (4-1 in the A10), and by 5 to a red hot George Mason team (5-1 in the A10).  The Minutemen have been competitive against the best teams in the league and they’ve played the toughest conference schedule already having faced 4 of the top 5 teams in the Atlantic 10. This is now a huge home game for them as they see an opportunity for their first win in conference play.  Lay the small number with UMass here. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Alabama -1 over Ole Miss, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET

We always have to take a long, sometimes a strong look, at unranked teams at home favored over ranked teams.  That’s what we have here.  The 11-6 Crimson Tide are a slight 1-point favorite over the 14-3 and 20th ranked Ole Miss Rebels.  Many times what will happen in this situation is the ranked team will get the majority of the bets simply because people see they are ranked and an underdog on top of that.  That is the case here with the Rebs receiving over 55% of the wagers as of this writing.  However, over 70% of the money is coming in on the unranked home team which tells us the heavy bettors in the know are siding with Bama.  We are in that group as well.  This is a MUCH bigger game for the Tide.  They are 2-3 in SEC play and they really need this home win.  Ole Miss is already 4-1 in conference play so a loss would not be a huge setback here.  Bama has some impressive wins at home this year including Kentucky and Arizona.  Their only home loss in SEC play was an 81-80 setback to Texas A&M as the Aggies made a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer to pull the upset.  The Tide played one of their best games of the season on Saturday almost pulling the upset @ now #1 Tennessee.  Bama actually led with under 3:00 minutes to go on the road but couldn’t hold on in a 71-68 loss.  A great effort vs the top ranked Vols who had won every home game by at least 13 points entering that game and have won every SEC game, except Bama, by double digits.  Now the host it backed into a corner and we expect a very good performance tonight.  Ole Miss is coming off a home win over Arkansas and they have a huge non-conference home game on deck with #24 Iowa State on Saturday.  Mississippi guard and one of their key players Devontae Shuler is not at 100% which could be a key tonight.  He’s had a foot problem as of late which limited him in Saturday’s win over Arkansas as he played his lowest minute total of the year and was just 1 of 6 from the field.  In his last 2 games Shuler is just 2 of 12 from the field.  He didn’t practice on Sunday or Monday as he is resting his foot.  He may play tonight but he’s obviously not at full strength.  The Rebels come into this game having won 11 of their last 12 games but only 3 of those 11 wins came against teams ranked in the top 100.  They are overvalued right now and this is a bad spot for them.  The home team has dominated this SEC series winning 15 of the last 18 SU and we look for Bama to continue that tonight.

ASA play on: #526 Portland Trailblazers +5 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – Let’s double up on our NBA profits today with a late game winner on this Western Conference showdown. Earlier today we cashed with a wager on the Under in the Pistons vs. Wizards game. We like the Blazers here for several reasons including double-revenge from two losses to the Jazz in late December. Portland is playing well right now have faced a tough schedule coming into this game. In their last four games on the road the Blazers have gone 2-2 SU with wins at the Warriors and Kings, two losses in Denver by 3 and at Sacramento by 8. In the game at Denver they were +4.5 points and at the time the Nuggets had the best overall record in the West. Now they are catching more points against the 7th seed Jazz? The over-correction by the oddsmakers is due to the Blazers current 6-game winning streak, but don’t be fooled by that number. Utah’s last six wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league (Cavs and Bulls), a 19-win Magic team, a 20-win Pistons team, the Lakers without LeBron and the Clippers. We’re not impressed. The Jazz have some injuries at guard right now which is a strength for the Blazers with Lillard and McCollum, who combined average 46PPG, over 8 RPG and nearly 9 assists per game. The Blazers are quietly on a 5-1 ATS run and playing with plenty of motivation here after a pair of losses late last month. Grab the points!

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET

The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS).  We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday.  Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat.  LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff.  That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground.  In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday.  That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that.  If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long.  Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career.  The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games.  Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road).  The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games).  They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game.  We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch.  If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games.  Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards).  We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit.  The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more.  Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game.  It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday.  Lay it with New Orleans in the dome. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Wichita State +4.5 over Cincinnati, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - AAC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’ve gone against Wichita a few times this year and cashed in.  This team was overvalued coming into the season as they lost some key players from last year’s 26-8 NCAA tourney team.  They are well coached and have talent, they just weren’t ready to play at their best early in the season, especially on the road.  Well this team now looks like the are a play on type team, especially at home as an underdog.  After opening the AAC season with an 11 point loss @ Memphis (we were on the Tigers), the Shockers have played quite well.  They led a very solid Temple team for all but 50 seconds of regulation but blew a 15 point second half lead and lost by 4 in OT.  WSU then traveled to the best team in the AAC (Houston – ranked 26th nationally in Ken Pom) and played very well leading the 16-1 Cougars by 5 points at half.  They were still right there with 1:00 minute remaining trailing by just 5 points (they lost by 9).  They finally broke into the AAC win column earlier this week upsetting a very good UCF team who came into the game with a 13-2 record.  The Shockers led for the final 33 minutes of that game getting the 8 point win.  That initial AAC win gives this team some great momentum heading into this game as they had been playing well as we stated, but now broke into the win column.  We feel the opposite is true for Cincinnati.  They are not playing at the top of their game right now.  After beating the worst team in the league, Tulane, handily to open conference play, they have had to battle to the wire in their last 4 games.  They are 4-1 in conference play, but they lost @ East Carolina (the 2nd worst team in the league – ranked 226th nationally), needed to come from 6 down with under 2:00 minutes remaining to beat Tulsa in OT, beat UConn at home by 2 in OT, and then held on earlier this week beating USF by 8 at home.  Cincy is 15-3 overall but just 2-2 in true road games with their wins coming by 4 @ UNLV (ranked 158th) and in OT @ Tulsa as we mentioned above.  They have a negative point differential on the road and their offense has struggled averaging just 66 PPG.  Head man Gregg Marshall has built a great program and getting points at home is something they are not used to.  This is just the 2nd time since 2009, yes 2009, that WSU has been a home underdog.  The other happened to be earlier this week when they beat UCF as a 2-point dog.  They do the same here.  Wichita pulls the upset.

ASA play on: Miami Heat +2 over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET – We feel the Heat are a team in the East that will make the playoffs and cause some problems for the upper echelon teams before it’s all said and done. We can’t say we feel the same about Detroit. The Pistons have talent but don’t play hard or well consistently. Detroit is 6-17 SU their last twenty-three games and are trending in the opposite direction. Their last four wins are less than impressive as they’ve come against Orlando, Clippers, Memphis and Washington. The Pistons are 12-10 SU at home but they are one of just 8 teams in the league with a negative home differential (-.1PPG). Miami on the other hand is 10-9 SU away from home with the 9th best road differential in the league at -.3PPG. The Heat are coming off a horrible showing in Milwaukee but have rest (6-1 ATS L7 with two or more days rest) going into tonight. Miami is 7-3 SU on the road this season when coming off a loss which is a sign of a well-coached, solid team. The Heat have covered four straight in this series and obviously have some matchup advantages. Take Miami plus the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Ohio State -2 over Maryland, Friday at 6:30 PM ET

This is an absolute must win for OSU.  They are coming off a 3-game losing streak after starting the Big Ten season 2-0.  Now at home with Purdue next and then two road games @ Nebraska & @ Michigan this becomes a huge game.  OSU recent 3 game losing streak was tipped off by a loss @ home to Michigan State.  The Buckeyes led that game by 9-points in the 2nd half before the Spartans came back and pulled out the win.  The Bucks then lost @ Rutgers and it was very apparent in that game that they were emotionally spent from their previous home game vs MSU.  Plus, Rutgers actually isn’t that bad this year.  They play very hard and play excellent defense.  Last Saturday we thought OSU would bounce back and give Iowa all they could handle on the road.  They led at half in Iowa City but simply couldn’t hold on due to poor shooting (just 37% for the game) and a pretty large deficit at the FT line (minus 10 made FTs).  Now the Buckeyes have had nearly a full week to recoup and get ready for this home game.  Maryland, on the other hand, played a big game last Saturday at home vs Indiana and then had to host Wisconsin on Monday, another big game for them.  This will be their 3rd game in a week and they are coming off back to back huge wins.  They trailed IU by 14 points and came back and won by 3.  Against the Badgers they jumped out a 20 point lead in the 2nd half only to have Wisconsin come back and take the lead late in the game.  Maryland hit a late 3 to pick up a 4-point win.  Off those 2 emotional home wins we expect this young Maryland team (349th nationally out of 351 in experience) will potentially have a tough time in this road tilt.  Ohio State has won 24 of their last 28 home games dating back to last year and they are in a desperate spot here.  This line is set where OSU pretty much just has to win the game which we think they’ll do.  Take the Buckeyes.

ASA NHL 10* TOP PLAY ON Calgary Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Buffalo, Wednesday at 9:35 PM ET - The Sabres are on a Western Canada road swing and playing for the 4th time in 6 nights. Buffalo enters this game having lost 3 straight. The Flames scheduling situation is much better as they are on home ice and playing for the first time since Sunday! Calgary enters this game having won 7 of their past 8 games. The Flames have scored an average of 5 goals per game during this red hot 8-game stretch. Of course that is part of the reason that Calgary is a 2 to 1 money line favorite on home ice for this one. That said, the way to get value out of a situation like this is with the puck line. By laying the 1.5 goals with the Flames bettors get a plus money return of approximately +120 with Calgary. The Sabres have scored an average of just 2 goals per game in their last 9 games. Seeing the numbers above it is no wonder as to why our math modeling is projecting a dominating 5-2 home win for the Flames in this one. Calgary is one of the top teams in the NHL and a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season. The Sabres had a hot streak earlier this season that was quite exciting for Buffalo of course. However, reality is now setting in as normalcy has returned for Buffalo. The Sabres have lost 15 of their last 21 games. Buffalo's last 11 losses have come by an average margin of 2.2 goals per game and another loss by a multiple-goal margin is in the forecast here. The Flames last 9 wins have come by an average margin of 2.7 goals per game. In road games with an O/U of 6 or more goals, the Sabres have lost 14 of their last 17 games. The Flames have won 5 of 6 games this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and Calgary has won 10 of 13 games this season when coming off a divisional game. We predict this one turns into a home blowout. Laying the 1.5 goals for a plus money return with Calgary is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Iowa State  +5.5 over Texas Tech, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET

Tech is very good but they’ve been skating on thin ice.  They are 4-0 in the Big 12 and all of their games have come down to the wire.  Their wins in conference play have come by margins of 3, 6, 6, and 7 points.  Iowa State is 2-2 in league play and their losses have come by 3 & 1 point so it’s safe to say we can expect a close game here.  Getting points will be valuable.  ISU should come in and play with some urgency as they have lost 2 straight games after trouncing Kansas by 17 points.  Their most recent loss was a 1-point setback to KSU and a game the Cyclones led by 7 with 5:00 minutes remaining.  This is a huge game for ISU as they don’t want to drop below .500 in the conference.  We realize Tech is a very solid team but they are not 15-1 solid in our opinion.  They are primed to be picked off very soon and this could be the night.  The Raiders have been outrebounded in every Big 12 game but have held their opponents in league play to just 36% shooting.  Even with those defensive numbers, all 4 of the games have been tight.  ISU will be the best offense they’ve faced so far in the Big 12 as the Cyclones are 23rd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.  They are tough to guard with 5 players averaging 10 PPG or more.  We think the Cyclones will have more success offensively than the other Big 12 teams Tech has faced which will make it tough for the host to cover this one.  That’s because on the other end of the court, the Red Raiders are not a great team offensively (95th in offensive efficiency).  They have not topped 68 points in any of their conference games.  We expect this one to be played in the mid 60’s with Iowa State taking Texas Tech to the wire with a shot to win outright.  Take the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Texas A&M +7 over Auburn, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

We were on Auburn on Saturday and picked up a win, however we think this is a great spot to fade the Tigers.  We caught the Tigers at home on Saturday coming off an embarrassing 15 point loss @ Ole Miss earlier in the week.  Their loss to the Rebels was their first SEC game and they definitely didn’t want to lose at home and drop to 0-2 in the league with a road game here on deck.  Auburn played well at home as we expected shooting 50% from the field and 48% from deep in their 15 point win on Saturday.  They have a HUGE home game this Saturday vs Kentucky so we won’t be surprised at all if the Tigers are not at the top of their game tonight.  On top of that, this team struggles on the road.  They have played just 2 true road games  this year and they are 0-2 in those games losing by 15 & 7 points.  They were FAVORED in both.  They are shooting just 40% on the road while allowing opponents to hit 49% of their shots.  Looking back to late last season, the Tigers have now lost 5 straight road games and they were favored in 4 of those games.  They have covered just 2 of their last 9 road tilts.  A&M is just 7-7 on the season but they are playing better and have some solid momentum coming into this game after upsetting Alabama on the road last weekend.  In their 3 SEC games the Aggies lost by 2 vs Arkansas, lost by 11 @ Kentucky (was a 2 point game with 7:00 remaining), and they beat Bama on the road by 1.  They are playing their best basketball and now have 4 of their next 5 games at home.  Four of A&M’s seven losses have come by 5 points or less so they have had a chance to win a majority of the games that they lost.  The Aggies were +6.5 @ Auburn last year in their only meeting (A&M won outright) and in their only meeting 2 years ago A&M was a 7-point favorite at home.  Getting +7 at home tonight (in some spots) is a definite value in our opinion.  We like the Aggies to keep this one close and have a shot at the outright win.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Penn State -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET

There is a reason the 0-6 in Big Ten play Nittany Lions are favored (or pickem in some spots) over the now rated #23 Iowa Hawkeyes.  Most will look at this game an automatically side with the Hawkeyes over a team that sits with a 7-10 overall record.  The fact is the Lions have played a brutal Big Ten slate and they are looking at this game as a prime opportunity to get their first conference win.  We expect they’ll play very well in this game.  The Nits have not played a “lower tier” type team in the Big Ten yet this season.  They have already faced the likes of Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Indiana, and Maryland.  Those teams are ranked (Ken Pom ratings) #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 teams in the league.  Iowa will actually be the lowest ranked team (Ken Pom) they’ve played in the Big Ten this season.  The Hawkeyes come into this game overvalued off 3 straight Big Ten wins – 2 of those at home.  We expect after beating Nebraska and Ohio State and home as well as Northwestern on the road, this is very likely a game Iowa may overlook.  That would be a mistake as this team as PSU will look at this as a prime opportunity to pick up their first conference win and Iowa is not a good road team.  The Hawks did come from 7 points  down in the 2nd half to pull the upset at Northwestern but they are just 1-2 in their 3 true road games with both losses coming by double digits.  The fact is the Hawkeyes have won only 5 of their last 25 road game dating back to the start of the 2017 season.  Last year that this venue they were crushed 82-58 by PSU.  The Lions were favored by 8.5 in that game and now this number a swung a full 8+ points from last year due to the perception that PSU is bad due to their winless conference mark.  Iowa might be without leading scorer Tyler Cook who sprained his ankle late in the OSU game and didn’t practice on Monday.  The Nits solid defense (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) will slow down Iowa’s offense that shoots only 40% in their road games.  PSU gets the outright win on Wednesday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Georgetown +2 over Marquette, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET - On Fox Sports One

Marquette is currently a play against team on the road in our opinion.  Their home/road dichotomy is quite drastic, especially on the defensive end.  They have only played 3 true road games this year getting blown out at St Johns and at Indiana and winning in OT @ Creighton.  Their road win last Wednesday over the Blue Jays was a complete miracle.  First of all the Golden Eagles NEVER led in the game until overtime.  Not once.  On top of that they were down 85-80 with under 2 seconds remaining in the game and were able to get it to OT by scoring 5 points in the final 2 seconds.  Yes you read that correctly.  Lastly, they shot lights out in that game hitting 56% of their shots, 57% of their 3-point attempts, AND made 24 FT’s (shot 80% from the foul line) and still NEVER led in regulation.  We don’t see those numbers being duplicated tonight @ Georgetown who plays much better defense than Creighton (Blue Jays are dead last in defensive efficiency in the Big East and it’s not close).  Speaking of defense, Marquette has been horrendous on that end of the court on the road this year.  They have allowed 89, 93, and 104 points in their 3 road games.  They are allowing their road opponents to make 55.7% of their shots!  The undervalued Hoyas who are scoring 88 PPG at home this year should be able to take advantage of that.  Georgetown is 2-2 in the Big East but are very close to being undefeated as their losses came in OT vs St Johns and by 5 points @ Xavier, a game they led 17 points.  They are off a home win last Saturday over Providence and now back at home again.  The Hoyas also got one of their top players back in the line up, Mac McClung, back on the court last Saturday after he missed 4 straight games.  Marquette has played back to back down to the wire games winning both vs Creighton & Seton Hall and now going on the road we see letdown potential from the Eagles.  G’Town has a little extra motivation here as well after they lost at home in OT to Marquette last year.  Hoyas in this one outright.

NBA play on: #510 Sacramento Kings -2.5 over Portland Trailblazers, 10PM ET - We have lost some value with this bet as these two teams recently played and the Blazers were a 1-point favorite on this court. The line has swung the other direction with good reason as the Blazers are off a hard-fought loss in the higher altitude of Denver last night. Teams have done well this season when coming off a game in Denver and playing without rest, but historically this is a tough scheduling situation. The Kings have revenge on their side here as they recently lost at home to Portland 108-113 in OT. The biggest discrepancy in that game was at the free throw line where the Kings were minus 15 in makes and minus 18 in attempts. Sacramento played a tough home stretch of games which include a win over the Lakers, an OT loss to the Portland team and a 4-point loss to Golden State. They then won three straight games at home by an average of 11PPG. Portland has an 8-11 SU road record this season and the WORST road differential of any team in the NBA with a winning record. The Blazers are in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings when playing away from home this season. The Kings are 4-0 ATS as a small favorite less than -2.5 points this season and they get this home win.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR

The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it.  First of all, the situation is terrible for LA.  They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast.  Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks.  Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England.  HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well.  Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close.  He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick.  Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage.  Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier.  They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier.  Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked.  This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one.  Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center.  The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so.  Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically.  He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year.  Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games.  He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year.  Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG.  Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields.  In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less.  The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24.  They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG.  Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season.  They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less.  The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC.  The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent.  LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week.  In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week.  The Patriots get the home win and cover.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET

We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams.  Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th.  Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run.  That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas.  The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle.  Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC.  With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game.  LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning.  Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans.  They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close.  That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game.   If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team.  In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32.  They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG.  Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG.  This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers.  You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers.  Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points.  Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%).  Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one).  The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch.  On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands.  LA’s following is not great for home games.  Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win.

ASA NBA play on: #570 Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8PM ET – We are not huge ‘revenge’ bettors when it comes to the NBA but that will certainly factor into tonight’s game. These two just met on Thursday night in a shootout in San Antonio (pun intended) with the Spurs coming out on top by 7 in OT. The Spurs were a small dog of +1.5-points which means the Thunder should be minus 7 or 8 at home. Spurs center LaMarcus Aldridge had a career type night with 56-points which is unlikely to happen again today on the road at OKC. The Spurs were also +10 in free throw makes which now flops to the home team Thunder. The Spurs have been an ‘average’ team on the road in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.3PPG (16th in NBA) and a 7-13 SU record. San Antonio’s road defensive efficiency rankings is 24th in the league as they allow 1.139PPP. OKC is a tough place to play as the Thunder enjoy a 13-6 SU record at home with the 9th best point differential at +7.4PPG. The Thunders 4th ranked defensive efficiency rankings will be the difference here as they allow just 1.028PPG which is far superior to the Spurs numbers. OKC is 6-3 SU at home off a loss while the Spurs are just 5-15 ATS the last 20 clashes on this court. Thunder by 10.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Stanford +4 over Arizona State, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET - PAC 12 GAME OF THE WEEK

Stanford has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date having already played 9 top 100 teams (31st ranked SOS).  Thus, they are better than their 7-8 overall record in our opinion.  They have started the Pac 12 season 0-3 with losses @ UCLA, @ USC, and a 5-point home setback vs Arizona on Wednesday.  It was a tight game throughout with neither team leading by more than 5 at any point in the 2nd half.  Stanford killed themselves at the FT line making only 55% (Arizona made 88%) which was the difference in the down to the wire game.  It was Stanford’s only home loss this season (5-1 record).  The Cardinal now go on the road for 2 games after this one and cannot afford a loss here which would drop them to 0-4 in the Pac 12.  We expect an all out effort on Saturday.  ASU is playing their 2nd road game this week after beating the worst team in the league, Cal, on Wednesday.  The 80-66 final score was a bit deceiving as the Devils never led in the first half and led by just 8 with 3:00 remaining in the game.  Again, not a huge win as Cal is just 5-10 on the year and 9 of their 10 losses have come by at least 9 points.  In their 3 road games this year, ASU was whipped @ Vandy by 15 (the 10th rated team in the SEC) , beat Georgia by 2 (12th rated team in the SEC) and beat the worst team in the Pac 12 (Cal).  Now they go on the road again for the 2nd time in 4 days and might be without one of their top players, Cheatham (17 points on Wed), who has a family situation today.  The Devils are overvalued in this spot in our opinion vs a desperate home team that is better than their record.   The home team has dominated this series going 12-4-1 ATS the last 15 meetings.  Take the points with Stanford. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Auburn -13.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE MONTH

We’re siding with one of the top teams in the nation off a loss here.  Not only a loss but an embarrassing one.  The Tigers were whipped 82-67 @ Ole Miss on Wednesday as a 4-point favorite.  Auburn attempted 14 more shots in the game but shot uncharacteristically poor at 32%.  Ole Miss also picked up some home cooking from the refs making 27 FT’s to just 9 for the Tigers.  Really tough to overcome those two situations.  Heading home after that bad loss to a place where they are 8-0 winning by an average score of 89-60 should lead to a very nice bounce back.  They take on a Georgia team that is off a big win at home over Vandy, but a team that has struggled on the road.  The Dawgs are 1-2 in their 3 true road games beating rival Georgia Tech but losing @ Temple and @ Tennessee.  They are away from home for just the 3rd time since November 22nd.  For comparison’s sake, UGA was completely overmatched @ Tennessee losing 96-50 and today’s opponent Auburn is the #2 ranked team in the SEC just behind Tennessee.  The Bulldogs have not beaten anyone ranked inside the top 75 this year going 0-4 vs teams ranked 75 or higher (Ken Pom ratings) and Auburn is currently #13.  Not only will the talented Tigers be extra motivated here, it’s simply a bad match up for Georgia.  The Tigers thrive at creating extra opportunities through turnovers as they force opponents into giveaways almost 29% of the time (1st nationally).  The problem here is UGA is the most turnover prone team in the SEC and one of the most in the nation (314th nationally in turnover percentage).  Auburn is also the #1 shot blocking team in the nation at 20.8% which will be a problem for UGA the doesn’t shoot the 3 very well (32%) and relies on scoring inside the paint.  The Tigers have scored at least 88 points in 6 of their 8 home games and we don’t feel UGA will be able to keep up here.  Last year Auburn won both games by 14 & 17 points and while the Tigers might be a bit better than last year’s 26-8 team, we feel Georgia isn’t as good as they were a year ago.  We feel this one could turn into a blowout.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Santa Clara -1.5 over Pepperdine, Thursday at 11:00 PM ET

Veteran head coach Herb Sendek (formerly head coach at NC State & Arizona State) has this Santa Clara team playing very well right now.  After losing 5 of their first 6 games the Broncos have hit their stride winning 8 of their last 10 games.  They had won 6 in a road including wins over Pac 12 teams Washington State & USC, before finally losing last Saturday @ Gonzaga, who many consider to be the top team in the nation.  That loss dropped Santa Clara to 1-1 in the WCC with their win coming here at home 68-56 vs a very good San Diego team.  Pepperdine is also 1-1 in the WCC and off a home loss to San Francisco last Saturday.  It was a huge home game for the Waves and they have big games on deck vs San Diego and BYU.  They may not be ready for this road tilt @ Santa Clara.  Part of that might be mental coming off a huge game but much of that is the fact the Waves are simply not a good road team.  They are 0-5 SU this year in true road games and only one of those contests came vs a team ranked inside the top 175.  They shoot just 40% on the road and they run into a SC defense that allows an eFG% of just 47.5% (70th nationally) a limits their opponents to only 29% (24th nationally).  That should be a problem for Pepperdine who relies fairly heavily on the 3-point shot.  Santa Clara has won 5 of the last 6 home meetings with Pepperdine and they get the win again tonight.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Florida -1.5 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET - SEC GAME OF THE WEEK

The Razors come into this game with a 10-3 record but have done most of their damage against inferior competition.  They are one of the youngest teams in the nation (339th in experience) with 4 freshmen in the rotation.  Arkansas has played the 3rd easiest slate thus far in the SEC and they already have two home losses at the hands of Georgia Tech (currently ranked the 12th best team in the ACC) and Western Kentucky who’s ranked outside the top 100 nationally.  Florida will actually be the highest rated team the Razorbacks have played this season and the catch the Gators off a loss.  You can bet the Gators will be angry coming in after blowing a 14 point lead with 10:00 minutes remaining in a 71-69 home loss to South Carolina last Saturday.  It was a game that South Carolina led for less than 3:00 minutes but won on a dunk at the buzzer.  It wasn’t a bad loss so to speak and the Gamecocks went on to beat #14 Mississippi State last night for impressive back to back wins.  Florida is a slight road favorite here despite the worse record (8-5) because unlike Arkansas, they’ve played a very tough schedule.  Their losses have come against Michigan State, Florida State, Butler, South Carolina, and Oklahoma and 4 of those games came down to the wire.  Also unlike the young Razorbacks, the Gators return 4 of their top 6 players from last year’s team that won their opening game in the NCAA tourney before losing by 3-points to Texas Tech.  This is a revenger for those returning players as they were ousted by Arkansas in the SEC tournament last season.  Florida has a great defense (ranked 9th nationally in adjusted efficiency) and they are the better offense efficiency wise as well.  Arkansas hangs their hat on creating turnovers but the fact is Florida is better at doing that than the Razors are (24.7% defensive turnover rate for Florida and 21.4% for Arkansas).  So the Gators are better offensive, better defensively and better at the one thing Arkansas thrives on.  Florida has dominated this series winning 13 of the last 15 meetings and we’ll take Florida to win this one on the road. 

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON St Bonaventure +1 over St Joes, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET - A10 GAME OF  THE WEEK

St Bonnies has just a 4-10 record but much of that is due to their very tough schedule.  They have played 8 of their 14 games this year away from home.  At home they are 4-2 with one loss to Buffalo (one of the best teams in the nation) and the other coming way back on November 7th in OT vs a solid Bucknell team.  Their 4 home wins have come by margins of 15, 29, 31, and 42 points.  This is the Bonnies first home game in a full month after a 4 game road trip which took them to Vermont, Northeastern, Syracuse, and George Mason.  They lost all 4 of those games with 2 going to the wire.  That stretch is giving us some value here now that they are back at home.  The Bonnies are back at full strength as well with leading scorer Courtney Stockard back and playing very well after missing the first 6 games of the season.  Senior Ladarien Griffin also is back at full strength playing in the last 3 games after missing 10 straight games.  Those were 2 key contributors on last year’s team that was 26-8 and won an NCAA tourney game over UCLA.  They actually return 4 of their top 7 players from that team and now that they are healthy, this team is vastly underrated due to their record.  St Joes is 7-7 on the season but they are just the opposite of St Bonnies as they haven’t left home in over a month.  They haven’t played a road game since December 8th and they are just 2-2 their last four games, all played at home.  The Hawks are off back to back home losses by 25 vs George Mason and by 15 vs a poor George Washington team.  They are not playing well right now and we don’t expect them to find their rhythm in their first road game in a month.  St Bonaventure has a big edge defensively here ranking nearly 100 spots ahead of St Joes in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense.  At home they are even better allowing opponents just 60 PPG on 36% shooting.  The Bonnies average 7 more PPG at home while allowing 10 PPG fewer.  They’ve won 21 of their last 24 games at home and we’re getting line value here.  The last 2 years St Bonnies was favored by 7 & 10 points vs St Joes at home.  Now this line sits near a pick-em.  While they have struggled early (partly due to schedule & injuries) St Bonaventure is a very solid program who had 3 straight 20 win seasons entering this year.  We expect them to go on a run starting on Wednesday.  Take St Bonaventure at home.

ASA's 10* CBB PLAY ON Baylor +2.5 over Iowa State, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN

The Cyclones jumped into the top 25 this week after taking care of Kansas at home last Saturday.  For those of you that follow CBB closely, you’ll know that Hilton Coliseum in Ames is one of the toughest places to play in the nation.  ISU has pulled off a number of big wins in that building over the last 5+ seasons.  On Saturday they shot lights out hitting 13 of their 25 three point attempts as the steamrolled the Jayhawks 77-60.  It wasn’t an ideal situation for the Jayhawks who found out about an hour before the game that their top big man Azubuike was lost for the season with a hand injury.  Tonight is a tough spot for this fairly young Iowa State team that has 2 freshmen and a sophomore in the starting line up.  They have played only 2 true road games this season getting smoked 98-84 @ Iowa (who is now 1-3 in the Big Ten) and they snuck by Oklahoma State 69-63 (Cowboys are rated as the worst team in the Big 12).  In their 2 road games ISU is shooting just 42% and allowing opponents to hit 48% of their shots.  They face a Baylor team coming off a road loss @ TCU 85-81.  The Bears are a fantastic defensive team (28th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency) and they switch between zone & man.  It’s a defense that can be tough to prepare for if you haven’t seen it which a few of ISU’s key players have not.  Baylor is coming off their worst defensive performance of the year allowing TCU (who is now 12-1) to hit 56% of their shots on Saturday.  Even with that, Baylor had a shot missing a 3-pointer to tie with just 8 seconds remaining.  We expect the Bears to play very well defensively after struggling on Saturday.  We also feel that ISU, who finally leaves the comfort of Hilton Coliseum, will not shoot lights out again after doing so vs Kansas on Saturday.  The value is with Baylor here.  They were favored by 9 each of the last 2 seasons at home vs Iowa State.  Now they are getting points.  The Bears pull the upset here.

ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Houston -9.5 over Memphis, Sunday at 6:00 PM ET

We were on Memphis on Thursday night and picked up a nice win as the topped an over-rated Wichita State team 85-74.  On Sunday we’ll switch gears and play against the Tigers on the road.  Memphis had not been away from home since December 1st.  They are on a nice roll winning 6 of their last 7, however all 7 of those games have been at FedEx Forum in Memphis.  They only have one win during that stretch vs a team ranked in the top 120.  If you break it down even further, the 9-5 Tigers have a grand total of 2 wins vs teams ranked in the top 100.  Those are both at home vs #85 Yale in OT and vs #81 South Dakota State.  Overall Memphis is just 2-5 vs the top 100 and 4 of their 5 losses have come by at least 9 points.  They have played only ONE true road game this season losing by 9 @ LSU back in November.  They are just 1-4 overall in games away from home this year (road or neutral).  Now in the comforts of their home arena for over a month, the Tigers must travel to Houston who is a perfect 14-0 on the season.  Memphis has rolled up some big offensive numbers during this stretch at home vs poor defenses.  Now they face a Houston team that ranks 12th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and 2nd nationally in eFG% defense.  The faced a similar defense back in December 1st taking on Texas Tech and scored a season low 67 points.  We think Memphis struggles on offense on the road vs a Houston defense that is allowing just 58 PPG on 35% shooting at home.  The Cougars are 6-0 this year vs top 100 teams and their home wins have come by an average score of 75-58.  Memphis thrives on up tempo play (7th nationally in tempo) and creating turnovers.  The problem here is, Houston will slow this game down (306th in tempo) and the veteran Cougars, 4 starters are upperclassmen, they don’t turn the ball over very much (just 17%).  The Cougars have been a covering machine going 19-7-2 ATS their last 28 games.  We look for Houston to completely take Memphis out of their game and put up a double digit win on Sunday.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10 PM ET on CBS Sports Network

San Diego State played fairly well at the beginning of the season, but they have really fallen off as of late.  On top of that, most of those poor performances have been at home.  The Aztecs have not played a road game in a month.  They are just 3-3 their last 6 games with their wins coming against Cal State Dominguez Hills (no rating), BYU, and Cal State Northridge (ranked 303).  Their win over BYU was solid but that is their only good performance since December 1.  Their most recent two games were both at home and included a 21 point loss to Brown and a 5-point win over a terrible CS Northridge team.  The Aztecs trailed by 30 points at home vs Brown before losing by 21.  On Wednesday SDSU was down by 17 points with just 14 minutes remaining vs CS Northridge before battling back for the unimpressive 5 point win.  Traveling to play an improving Boise team will be tough.  The Broncos are just 6-8 on the season but they have played the majority of their games (8) away from home.  After losing at home to Oregon last Saturday, the Broncos bounced back with a very solid performance and an 11-point win @ Wyoming on Wednesday.  They allowed just 55 points in that game and veteran head coach Leon Rice stated after the game he feels his team is really picking it up on the defensive end of the court. “We’re becoming a really good defensive team,” Rice said after the win.  The Broncos have allowed their opponents to hit just 40% of their shots over their last 4 games.  At home they allow only 39% for the season.  This is an experienced Boise team that returns 4 of their top 7 players from last year’s 26-9 team.  Because of their struggles early, we feel they are a bit underrated right now.  We feel SDSU is just the opposite.  Boise has a great home court advantage winning 34 of their last 40 games here at Taco Bell Arena.  These teams are headed in opposite directions and we’ll side with Boise laying the small number.

ASA play on: #525 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 over Boston Celtics, 7:35PM CT – Doesn’t this line look sooooo inviting to take Boston at home over a Mavs team with a 3-16 SU road record? Yeah, that’s why we’ll bet who the oddsmakers don’t want us to bet. Dallas is back to full strength with Wes Matthews and Dennis Smith Jr. back in the line up and both played well in their last game out against Charlotte. Even though the Mavs have been bad on the road, they have a differential of just -4.9PPG, which should be far worse considering their straight up record. Let’s look who Dallas has visited recently. They just beat Charlotte, lost at OKC by 20-points the night after beating them at home. Prior to those two games they lost at New Orleans by 2, at Portland by 3 in OT, at Golden State by 4, at LA Clippers by 4 and at Denver by 8. Those are some of the best teams in the West and they were in every game to the final buzzer. Tonight, they take on the Celtics without Kyrie and Aron Baynes, which is significant for their front court depth against the Mavs. In their last five games the Mavs have better overall efficiency stats than Boston and are playing well right now. The Celtics have a 12-5 SU home record this year but have let down against other losing teams like Phoenix, Orlando and New York who are worse than this Dallas team. The Mavs are 15-8 ATS as a Dog this season and have covered 8 of the last nine meetings in Boston.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON San Francisco -2 over St Mary's - Thursday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

Talk about a team flying under the radar.  San Francisco comes in with a 12-2 record including a perfect 8-0 at home.  Included in those games are two wins over Pac 12 teams Stanford & California.  Their two losses came at the hands for Buffalo by 4 (game played in Ireland) and by 2 points @ UC Santa Barbara last Saturday.  Tight losses vs very good teams.  UCSB is the top team in the Big West who was 23-9 last year.  Buffalo is the top team in the MAC with a 12-1 record this year including wins @ Syracuse & @ West Virginia.  The Dons are a veteran team (66th nationally in experience) that is fantastic defensively (18th nationally eFG% defense).  They are tough to guard as well with 4 starters averaging more than 10 PPG.  The Dons return the majority of their main players (75% of last year’s minutes are back) from a team that was 22-17 and beat a then #15 ranked St Mary’s here 70-63 last season.  The Gaels are down this year.  They come in with a 9-6 record and lost 5 of their top 7 scorers from last year’s team.  The 6 losses already this season matched their season total a year ago (30-6 record last season).  They are just 2-4 this year in road/neutral games.  St Mary’s is coming off a blowout win on Saturday vs a terrible San Jose State team.  San Fran, as we mentioned, is coming off a rare loss which sets this one up nicely.  The Dons are 8-0 this year at home and have won 17 of last 18 here at Sobrato Center.  They beat a MUCH better St Mary’s team here last year so we have no doubt they can win this one as well.  This number is too small in our opinion and we like San Francisco at home.

ASA 10Star play on: #512 Memphis Grizzlies -6 over Detroit Pistons, 8PM ET – Let’s start with scheduling as the Pistons are playing their 3rd game in four days and the second night of a back-to-back. Detroit got beat badly in Milwaukee last night 98-121. In their last five games, three of which were against teams with a combined 41-68 SU record, the Pistons have allowed opponents to shoot over 50% from the field and shot just 41% themselves. In those last five games they’ve been beaten by an average of 10.8PPG. The Pistons have a negative point differential of -6PPG on the road this season which is 23rd in the NBA. Memphis is coming off a tough road loss in Houston and will look to rebound at home tonight. The Grizz are just 2-3 SU their last five games but it came against a tough schedule with the lone exception being Cleveland. Memphis is closing out a stretch of seven of eight games against teams with a .500 or better record. They must take advantage of a soft January schedule which includes four games in their next six that are below .500. Despite the tough schedule lately (last five) the Grizzlies are shooting over 47% and holding opponents to just 42%. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and in their three most recent road games they’ve been beating by an average of 21PPG. Memphis has faced a brutal schedule at home this season so their home point differential of just +2.1PPG is very misleading. They’ll get a double digit win in this one.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Butler -9 over Georgetown, Wed at 7:00 PM ET

We expect a huge bounce back from the Bulldogs as they come off their worst loss since 1994.  Butler traveled to Florida on Saturday, a team they had already beaten this year, and the Gators went off winning 77-43.  It was the perfect storm with the motivated Gators shooting lights out at home (53%) and the normally solid shooting Bulldogs hitting just 30%.  After outrebounding Florida in their other meeting this year, Butler was destroyed to the tune of 43-14 on the boards.  No effort whatsoever from the Bulldogs which is not the norm for this team.  Their coach Lavell Jordan and every player on this team was embarrassed following that effort on Saturday.  While they are just 2-4 in games away from home (away/neutral) the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 at home at Hinkle Fieldhouse where they face Georgetown tonight.  Hinkle provides one of the best home court advantages in college basketball and Butler has won 60 of their last 72 games here.  They catch a G’Town team that has a solid 10-3 record but has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation this year ranking 313th in SOS.  The Hoyas have played only 3 top 100 teams this year and they are 1-2 in those games with their lone win coming over #77 Liberty.  They have also not been away from home in almost a month with their last road game coming on December 8th.  On top of that the Hoyas look like they will not be at 100% for this one with leading scorer Mac McClung and starting forward Trey Mourning may both be out here.  McClung, a freshman averaging 13 PPG, was out last game due to an injured ankle or at least that was the story they went with.  He was not in the building for the game and there are rumors floating around that he may look to transfer.  Either way, not a great situation.  Mourning is still in concussion protocol.  Butler shoots it very well at home (51% overall & 40% from deep) with an average margin of victory at 17 points.  Facing a team that hasn’t been on the road in nearly a month & off their worst loss in 25 years, this one sets up for a potential Butler rout and we expect at least a double digit win.