ASA 10* PLAY ON NC Central +16 over Wofford, Monday at 7 PM ET

NCCU, out of the MEAC, is a very solid program that has been to the NCAA tournament 3 straight seasons.  They have gotten off to a slow start (2-5 record) but were picked by most to win the MEAC again so we feel they are undervalued right now.  They have a very solid backcourt with Perkins & Miller, both returning starters from last year, and the additions of Boston College transfer Ty Graves & Wichita State transfer CJ Keyser.  They shoot the 3 very well (115th nationally) and they are facing a Wofford team that defends the arc very poorly (315th nationally).  Wofford is simply a poor defensive team in general allowing their opponents to shoot almost 49% on the year.  The Terriers were a fantastic story last year going undefeated in the Southern Conference and making it to the Big Dance.  However, they lost many of their key players off that team including sharp shooter Fletcher Magee and big man Cameron Jackson who graduated along with starter Keve Aluma who transferred to Va Tech.  Speaking of Va Tech, the Terriers also lost their coach Mike Young who took over the Hokies program.  With so many changes from last year, they’ve struggle to find their way this year having already lost 4 games which is almost as many as they lost all of last year (5).  This team is overvalued right now due to last year’s success.  We like NC Central to score enough to keep this within this number which is too high in our opinion.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359

NC State won last year's game in overtime and there was a huge fight in the end zone after the game.  Suffice to say both teams will be highly motivated in this year's rematch but that is bad news for the Wolfpack because the Tar Heels are certainly the vastly superior team.  NC State was down 21 to 3 to Georgia Tech (UNC beat GT 38-22 by the way) at the half last week and that shows you have far this team has fallen as the Yellow Jackets have been enduring a rebuilding season and yet still went on to defeat the Wolfpack last week.  Now NC State faces a fierce rival seeking revenge and also seeking the necessary 6th win for bowl eligibility.  Even though the Tar Heels are away from home for this one, the road team has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.  North Carolina has a huge edge at QB in this match-up as Sam Howell as thrown for 32 touchdowns against just 6 interceptions.  NC State QB Devin Leary has just 7 touchdowns and has thrown 3 picks.  In his last 5 games Howell had one tough game at home against Duke but in the other 4 games he totaled 15 touchdowns against just 1 pick and this includes an 8-1 ratio in road games.  Leary, on the other hand, is trending the other direction with his 3 picks (against 4 TDs) all coming in his last 4 games.  NC State has lost 5 straight games and the average margin of defeat in those is 23.2 points per game.  The Wolfpack have averaged scoring only 17 points per game in their past 7 games.  That is bad news here for NC State as they simply won't be able to keep up in this game.  North Carolina has scored an average of 34 points per game their past 6 games (not including OT points in the 6-OT battle with Virginia Tech).  While the Tar Heels and Wolfpack rate about equal on the defensive side of the ball, North Carolina's does hold a big edge on offense.  The Tar Heels have amassed over 5,000 yards of offense this season and their 6.2 yards per play ranks them #3 in the ACC while NC State ranks 11th in the ACC averaging just 5.2 yards per play on offense.  In terms of technical support here the Wolfpack certainly have not been performing well in the underdog role.  NC State is 0-6 ATS the last six times they have been an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points including 0-3 ATS this season.  In their last 5 ACC games the Tar Heels have averaged 325.2 passing yards per game.  In their last 4 ACC games the Wolfpack have averaged just 196.3 passing yards per game.  Per our computer math model, North Carolina piles up the yardage here and sends NC State to their 6th straight loss (both SU and ATS) as road team dominance in this series continues and the Tar Heels get revenge for last season's OT loss (and game-ending fight) that ruined the night at Chapel Hill!  UNC hasn't forgotten that one!  Lay the points with the Tar Heels as a road favorite in evening action Saturday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Seton Hall -2 over Iowa State, Friday at 7:00 PM ET

This line is light according to our power ratings.  We have Seton Hall favored by -4.5 so we’re getting a full possession of value here.  The Pirates are 5-2 on the year but their 2 losses have been down to the wire affairs vs Michigan State & Oregon (both top 15 teams according to Ken Pom).  The Pirates could easily be 7-0 as they led Michigan State by 5 with under 2:00 minutes remaining (lost by 3) and led Oregon by 19 (lost by 2).  Both teams are playing their 3rd game in 3 days here in the Bahamas and with that depth is very important and Seton Hall is absolutely the deeper team (26th nationally in bench minutes while ISU is 222nd in that category).  In their 2 games vs Oregon & Southern Miss, the Pirates were able to distribute double digit minutes to 10 players in game 1 and 9 players in game 2.  Iowa State (4-2 with losses to Oregon State & Michigan) really goes only 7 deep so we could be looking at a tired team here in the 2nd half.  This is a favorable match up for the Hall.  They rank higher in offensive efficiency, higher in defensive efficiency and they are the better rebounding team.  They also shoot the 3 very well (31st nationally at nearly 40%) and ISU’s defensive weakness is defending the arc (294th nationally).  The Pirates have found their groove from deep in this tourney hitting nearly 50% (24 of 51) in their 2 games and they should do the same today vs the Cyclones.  They also have the best player on the court in Myles Powell who is averaging 23 PPG and making over 40% of his 3 point attempts and 83% of his FT’s.  As we mentioned this line is too short in our opinion and we like Seton Hall to cover this one.    

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339

The Huskies have good recent history in this rivalry but Washington enters this game off a loss at Colorado and has now lost 3 of 4 games. Washington State enters this game riding the momentum of a key comeback win at Oregon State where the Cougars rallied and scored the final 14 points of the game. Washington State QB Anthony Gordon has thrown for nearly 5,000 yards and has 45 touchdown passes this season. He led the huge win last week by throwing for 6 touchdowns and the Cougars got the final TD with just a couple ticks left on the clock. Normally a team can be expected to be flat after a game like that but rivalry games are most definitely an exception. Especially considering the Huskies recent dominance in this series, there is no way the Cougars will be flat here. Look for Gordon and company to ride the momentum of last week's win over the Beavers which also gave Washington State the all-important 6th win for bowl eligibility. With Gordon at the controls the Cougars have been tough to stop as the season has gone on. While the Huskies enter this game with losses in 3 of 4, Washington State has won 3 of its last 5 games and one of the losses was by just 2 points at Oregon! In fact, the Cougars 5 SU losses this season have featured 3 by just 4 points or less. Per our computer math model, Washington State has a great shot at the outright upset here and, if they do fall short, it is expected to be by just a single score. That means we have great value here with getting more than a TD in this one. Washington State, after a tight win by 7 points or less over a conference foe, has gone 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU). Washington, off an outright upset as a road fave of 7 or more points, has gone 3-8 ATS. The Huskies are dealing with a very dangerous dog in this year's match-up as Washington State is riding a wave of late-season momentum. Grab the points with the Cougars as a road dog in afternoon action Friday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas -6.5 over Buffalo, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET

Dallas is much better than their 6-5 record in our opinion.  They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.4 and their offense is actually #1 in the NFL in total yards per game (433) and YPP (6.6).  Those are better numbers than the red hot Baltimore offense!  The only team that outgained Dallas this year was New Orleans and that was by just 9 yards.  Despite their 6-5 record, Dallas has the 2nd best point differential in the NFC at +85 trailing only San Francisco.  Last Sunday the Cowboys took New England to the wire on the road before losing 13-9.  They outgained the Pats by 40 yards despite running fewer offensive plays.  Buffalo is not as good as their 8-3 record would indicate.  Their offense is pedestrian averaging just 18 PPG if you subtract their 2 games vs Miami.  Last week they topped Denver 20-3 but still have beaten only 1 team this year that currently has a record above .500 (Tennessee).  The Bills strength of schedule ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd.  The teams they’ve beaten so far this year have a current winning percentage of .239 or just less than 24%.  The Cowboys running game which averages 4.6 YPC (8th in the NFL) matches up very well with Buffalo’s defensive weakness and that is allowing 4.4 YPC (21st in the NFL).  That should open up the Dallas passing game and we expect them to play very well on offense.  We don’t see Buffalo’s offense keeping up in this game.  Lay the points with Dallas.

ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder -6 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – The Thunder already own a pair of wins over the Warriors this season and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again by more than this spread. The Thunder have some solid efficiency numbers their last six games when you factor in the teams they’ve faced. OKC played the Lakers twice, the Clippers, Philadelphia, Indiana and Milwaukee. The Thunder lost to the Bucks by 2-points, beat Philly, lost to both L.A. teams by a combined 10-points. OKC has a negative point differential of minus -0.7PPG this season but they’ve faced the third toughest schedule. The roster is solid with veterans Chris Paul, Gallinari and Adams along with Gilgeous-Alexander who is playing great. Dennis Schroder and Terrance Ferguson round out the top six. The same can’t be said for Golden State who look like the walking wounded. The Warriors dressed just 8-players the other night in Utah due to injuries. GST has the worst overall average point differential in the NBA at minus -10.4PPG and the worst home differential at minus -9.0PPG. The line on this contest is slightly inflated but we feel Vegas is trying to keep us off Oklahoma City here. Lay the points.

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Oklahoma -4 over Stanford, Monday at 9:30 PM ET on ESPN2

Both these teams come in undefeated but all records are not created equal.  OU has beaten 2 top 75 teams (Minnesota & Oregon State) both by 8 or more points and both on neutral courts.  The Sooners are experienced returning 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and gave Virginia a run in the round of 32 in the NCAA tourney last year before falling to the eventual National Champion.  Stanford is the opposite as far as experience.  They are young starting 2 freshman including point guard Tyrell Terry.  The Cardinal have yet to leave their home arena this season and we’ll see how this young team adjusts to a different environment.  We know Oklahoma can adjust as we mentioned with 2 solid win not on their home court.  On top of that, Stanford has not yet played a team ranked higher than 134th and 5 of their 6 games have come against teams rated 200th or lower.  This will be by far the best defense Stanford has faced with Oklahoma ranking 29th nationally in defensive efficiency.  Prior to this the Cardinal have not faced a team ranked inside the top 125 in defensive efficiency.  The Sooners are a very well coached team under Lon Kruger and it shows in their key stats where they are very good defensively, they turn the ball over very little (5th best turnover ratio in the country), they get to the FT line and make them when the do get there (81% as a team), and they don’t foul very much with their opponents getting only 8.7% of their points from the line which is the lowest mark in the NCAA.  Kruger has his teams playing well early in the season with a 27-2 SU record in November & December since the start of the 2017 season.  We’ll lay this small number with Oklahoma on Monday night on a neutral court in Kansas City, a venue they are very familiar with as the Big 12 tourney is played here.    

ASA 10* PLAY ON Akron +18.5 over Louisville, Sunday at 6 PM ET

This is a unique situation early in the season as these two teams have already played 3 common opponents.  With that, we have a pretty solid comparison.  Each has played USC Upstate, Youngstown State, and NC Central.  Both are 3-0 vs those common opponents and the results have been fairly similar.  Akron has beaten those teams by an average of 21 points while Louisville has beaten them by an average of 26 points.  Akron is a veteran team that can shoot the ball well from deep.  That plays into Louisville’s weakest part of their defense as they rank 145th in 3-point defense.  Teams that have good guard play and can hit from deep are always a threat as a big underdog.  Akron also plays very good defense which is another big factor.  They rank 4th nationally in eFG% defense and that’s no fluke as they ranked 14th in that category last season.  Akron’s only loss this year was a 10-point setback @ a very solid West Virginia team in a game that the Zips shot only 38%.  They impressed us on the boards in that game getting out rebounded by just 1 against a WVU team that is consistently among the top rebounding teams in the nation.  Akron proved last year they can hang with top notch opponents as they took Clemson to the wire (lost by 3) as well as a 29-5 Nevada team (lost by 6).  This number is too high as we expect the Zips to be competitive here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +4 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

As we’ve said many times this season, Denver is much better than their 3-7 record.  Last week we thought they were in a terrible spot @ Minnesota, who tends to destroy teams at home, with a QB that had never started a road game.  We took the Vikings thinking a 2 TD win for the host was probable.  Denver proved us wrong losing just 27-23 and they actually led Minnesota 20-0 in the first half.  QB Allen played solid (240 yards passing) and the defense continued to play very well holding a potent Minnesota attack to just 320 yards.  Denver actually outgained Minnesota by 73 yards and played very well in one of the tougher environments in the NFL.  Now they head to Buffalo in a game they can absolutely win.  The Bills are a bit of a farce at 7-3 as only one of their wins came against a team with any type of a pulse (14-7 win vs Tennessee).  Their other wins have come against Miami (twice), Washington, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Cincinnati.  Those 4 teams have combined for a 6-34 record and that makes this Bills record a bit misleading.  While Denver only has 3 wins, as we discussed they are underrated and much better than any of those 4 teams mentioned.  Despite their record the Broncos are +11 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season.  Those are the stats of a .500 type team.  Buffalo struggles to score.  If you take out their two games vs Miami they are only averaging 17 PPG.  Now they face one of the better defenses in the NFL (Denver 9th in defensive efficiency) and we expect the Buffalo offense to struggle.  The Broncos have played close games all season long with 7 of their 10 games being single score contests (8 points or less).  Four of their seven losses have come by 4 points or less.  We look for a low scoring game and we give Denver a great shot at winning.  Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137

The Sooners are one of the top teams in the nation and they have a fantastic offense. Certainly their offense rates the edge in this match-up but the Horned Frogs have proven they can put up plenty of points too as they are averaging 32 points per game on the season and the keys to the value with this play are many. TCU has the edge on defense in this match-up. Keep in mind that prior to the Sooners miracle comeback win against Baylor last week, they entered the 2nd half of that game having allowed an average of 12 points per quarter over their prior 10 quarters of football. That equates to an average of 48 points per game against the Jayhawks, Cyclones, and the 1st half of the Bears game. Give credit to the Sooners for their huge 2nd half comeback but the defensive edge in this match-up belongs to Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had two ugly games in terms of points allowed this season but in the other 8 they have allowed an average of only 22.4 points per game. They are dogs of about 18 points in this match-up and they are getting strong play from QB Duggan as he led the way against Texas Tech last week. While the Horned Frogs hung on for a well deserved win last week, the Sooners were fortunate to storm all the way back for their comeback win at Baylor. Also, Oklahoma has their biggest rival, Oklahoma State, on deck and they have failed to cover 5 of the last 7 times when they have the Cowboys on deck. This is a definite sandwich spot for OU off the big win over the previously undefeated Bears and with rival Oklahoma State on deck. Also, the 52 points that OU put up on TCU last year was the most points ever scored in this series. The Horned Frogs defense is ready to make up for that performance here. The Sooners enter this game on a 1-5 ATS run as they continue to be over-valued by the betting markets. Games since mid-October for Oklahoma have included a 7-point loss to Kansas State and 3 wins over Texas, Baylor and Iowa State that have come by a total of 11 points. That means in those 4 Big 12 games OU has a point differential net of just +4 or 1 point per game yet here they are laying more than two touchdowns. We'll take it! 4 of the Horned Frogs 5 SU losses this season have been by a margin of 7 points or less. Per our computer math model, this one will be too! Grab the points with TCU as a big road dog for a Top Play in evening action Saturday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -5 over Boston Celtics, 9PM ET – In our opinion Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA so it’s hard to believe his record off a SU loss is just 20-18 SU since the start of last season. Boston has gotten off to a fantastic 11-3 start this season but depth is a concern, especially in this situation with it being their 5th straight road game and the higher altitude of Denver. The Celtics have struggled with their shooting of late and we feel it catches up to them here. Boston has hit less than 42% from the field in four straight games. The Nuggets defensive efficiency rating is 4th best in the NBA and they are holding foes to under 43% shooting in their last five games. Denver got off to a slow start but are hitting their stride with wins in 7 of their last eight games which includes home wins over Miami, Philly and Houston who are all comparable to the Celtics. Denver is 44-12 SU at home since the start of last season with an average margin of victory of +9.2PPG. Lay the points.  

ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: Toronto Raptors -3 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – These two teams have met on this floor already this season with the Raptors coming out on top by 9-points as a 5-point favorite. That was the 5th straight time the Raptors have beaten the Magic and there is no reason to think that streak ends tonight. Orlando hasn’t won a road game this season and have a negative differential of minus -5.5PPG when away from home. Historically the Raptors have had some of the best numbers at home and this year their average point differential of +13.8PPG is second in the league. Much has been made of the Magic’s improved defensive efficiency numbers that rank them 9th in the NBA but Toronto has a better points per possession defense allowing just 1.030PPP which ranks them 5th. Orlando isn’t nearly as good as the Raptors on the other end of the court as Toronto ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, Orlando 24th. Yes, the Raptors don’t have Kyle Lowry in the lineup but VanVleet and Powell will pick up the slack in the backcourt. Lay the points with Toronto tonight.

ASA 10* PLAY ON UNC Greensboro -9 over Appalachian State, Monday at 7 PM ET

UNCG is one of the favorites this year in the Southern Conference and we catch them here off a loss to Montana State as a 15 point favorite.  Greensboro took 29 more shots in the game but simply shot poorly hitting only 36% while Montana State hit 52%.  It was just one of those games where the ball was not going in the basket for UNCG.  It was also a poor defensive effort from a team that has been very good on that end of the court ranking 26th nationally in defensive efficiency 2 years ago and 74th last season.  Many of the key components are back from a team that finished 29-7 last year and this program has won 25+ game three straight seasons.  They finished 14-1 at home last year with their only loss coming at the hands of Wofford who was 30-5 a year ago.  Now off a rare home loss we expect them to have a huge bounce back and play very well in this game.  In a round robin type format, UNCG is hosting App State, Tennessee Tech, and Montana State.  They played Tennessee Tech on Friday (won by 34) and Montana State on Saturday (upset 1 point loss).  App State played both teams as well here in Greensboro (lost to Montana State & beat Tenn Tech) so they each will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  Advantage goes to the home team for sure in that situation.  Unlike UNCG, App State has not been a successful program with their last winning season coming back in 2011 (16-15 record).  They hired a new coach Kerns from Presbyterian and he is trying to turn this program around.  While he may just do that, it won’t happen this season.  Greensboro plays pressure defense creates turnovers at a high rates ranking in the top 30 in defensive turnover rate each of the last 3 season.  It’s early in the season but they are at it again turning their opponents over 28% of the time ranking them 12th nationally.  App State ranks 254th so far this season in offensive turnover rate.  This isn’t a great match up for the Mountaineers and they will be facing an angry Greensboro team that is used to winning at home.  UNCG wins by double digits. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high.  Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win.  Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%.  The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards.  The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball.  In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air.  We think Houston can do just that.  Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored.  Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona.  The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright.  Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game.  In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less.  We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.  

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353

Not only is Wyoming 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, the 3 SU losses the Cowboys have all came by 4 or less points. Out of 9 games this season no one has soundly beaten Wyoming and that includes the Broncos last week in a game played at Boise State. The Cowboys, with back-up QB Tyler Vander Waal, nearly pulled off the outright upset as a 2 TD+ dog at Boise last week. There has been a different "feel" in the Wyoming locker room this season and this team just gives it all they have week after week in terms of their effort no matter the situation. With that being said, we certainly look for the Cowboys to give the Aggies all they can handle this week. Utah State is off an upset win at Fresno State last week so this sets up perfectly. Prior to that win over the Bulldogs, the Aggies had lost 3 of 4 games and the 3 losses all came by big margins. Those 3 losses for Utah State featured an average margin of defeat of 29 points per game! Last season the Cowboys got the ATS cover for the 3rd straight time in this series with the Aggies but Wyoming did lose the game SU at home even though they held a 331 to 194 yardage edge! It was a fluke final score and the Cowboys now have a score to settle with Utah State in this season's rematch. Aggies QB Love is highly touted but he has more INTs than TDs this season and has struggled badly in his two career meetings with the Cowboys as well. Wyoming's pass defense has been a strength again this season and Love has 4 INT's and 0 TD's in his two career games against the Cowboys D. On the other side of the ball, Wyoming relies heavily on their ground game and should enjoy some success on the ground here. The Aggies front seven on defense suffered a major blow with the loss of linebacker David Woodward. Already without a senior defensive lineman (Fua Leilua) that was expected to be a key contributor this season, the loss of Woodward is huge. He had 134 tackles last season and already had 93 this season. The Cowboys take advantage and QB Vander Waal certainly had a respectable game against a tough 8-1 Boise State team last week. All it takes is a little success with the aerial attack (like he had last week) to open things up even more for the ground game! On that note, Utah State has allowed 275 rushing yards per game the past 3 weeks. Per our computer math model, the Aggies defense gets run on big in this game too and once again Love has another bad game against a Cowboys pass defense that has given him fits each of the past two years. More of the same here and we'll bet this game with the points but we don't expect to need them! Grab the points with Wyoming as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA play on: Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5 over Miami Heat, 6PM ET - *Note early tip time* We love the Cavs here who are a team lumped together with some of the worst teams in the league, but are better than expected. Let’s talk line value first. The Cavs are catching a similar number at home as they were against Boston and Dallas recently who are both better than this Miami team as of this writing. Injuries: The Heat have suspended Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow is out and they have health concerns with Dragic, Johnson, and Herro who are all questionable tonight. The Cavaliers have played the 8th toughest schedule when it comes to efficiency ratings and yet they have the 17th average point differential of minus -0.9PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road this season with a differential of minus -2PPG. Cleveland is 2-2 SU at home and their differential is minus -2.2PPG so in both those scenarios (Miami away, Cavs home) the Cavs are within the spread tonight. Let’s not forget the Cav vets are playing hard to showcase their talents for other teams in the league before trade deadline when this team gets blown up. Take the home dog here and the points!

ASA play on: LA Clippers +2.5 over Houston Rockets, 7:30PM ET – Obviously the biggest game on the card tonight is this one and we are betting the Clippers. These two teams are both 7-3 SU on the season and have some similarities when it comes to general statistics but the biggest advantage the Clippers have is defense. Let’s compare both teams: The Clippers are 8th in offensive efficiency ratings, the Rockets are 3rd. Los Angeles is 11th in defensive efficiency, Houston is 20th. To summarize the Rockets, have a slight edge offensively and the Clippers hold the advantage defensively. But the Clippers numbers have come against the 3rd toughest schedule to date while the Rockets stats have come against the SECOND EASIEST! Houston has one quality win on their resume which was at home against the Bucks.  The Clippers on the other hand have beaten Toronto, Portland, San Antonio, Utah and the Lakers. After facing the much tougher schedule the Clippers average point differential is +5PPG while the Rockets are +1.9PPG against a weak one. L.A. has covered 5 straight, the Rockets are 0-4 AGTS their last four against a team with a winning record. The better defensive team wins outright. Play on: LA CLIPPERS

ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here.  Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here.  There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland.  We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them.  That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well.  We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season.  Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record.  They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee.  Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game.  They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them.  The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year.  Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense.  Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins.  Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well.  We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday.  We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team?  Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation.  Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo).  The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite!  Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184

The sharp money is on Texas in this game. As of Thursday afternoon, 67% of the tickets are being written on Kansas State in this game since the line opened up at -5 and yet the Longhorns are now up to a -7. That tells you that the bigger wagers are coming in on Texas in this one. The set up here is ideal as the Wildcats are off back to back huge wins. In the past three weeks Kansas State is off 3 straight big wins. They won at home against TCU, then upset Oklahoma when they hosted the Sooners and then followed that up with a huge win against the rival Jayhawks at Kansas. Sure one could argue that Kansas State has plenty of momentum here but what we see with this is an over-rated Wildcats team due for a letdown game. That is why they are ranked 20th in the nation and yet odds makers are favoring the un-ranked Horns in this spot! The fact is that upset wins, of course, do happen in College Football and the Wildcats put it all together when they upset the Sooners two weeks ago. However, Kansas State's other 5 wins this season have included a win over an FCS school (Nichols State) and 4 other FBS teams of which NONE have a winning record. The Longhorns are going to be ready here. They are coming off a bye week and this followed a game in which QB Sam Ehlinger threw 4 interceptions in an ugly loss against TCU. Poor games on offense have certainly been the exception rather than the norm this season for Ehlinger and the Horns. Texas has been particularly strong in Austin as they have averaged 42.3 points in their 4 games at Memorial Stadium this year. Where the Longhorns have had issues this season is on the other side of the ball but therein lies the key to this match-up. Texas is coming off a bye week and finally near 100% health on the defensive side of the ball. The key is their secondary is getting back to full strength this week. Both safeties Caden Sterns and BJ Foster are coming back this week. Also, DeMarvion Overshown is expected to play for the first time this season as the defensive back got injured right before the season in fall camp and has been upgraded to probable for this game. Texas was counting on Overshown as a key member of the secondary as well and you can see why we're expected a much improved performance from the Longhorns defense in this one. They are finally healthy and they catch the Wildcats at the right time and in the right place to deliver a blowout win and that is precisely what our computer math model is forecasting here. The home team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series. Make that 8-0 ATS when this one goes into the books! Lay the points with Texas and look for a home blowout in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA Play on: Utah Jazz +3 over Milwaukee Bucks, Friday 9PM ET – This is simply a bad number set by the oddsmakers and we’ll gladly take the value with the home team Jazz. Consider this: Utah was just favored by -2.5 points at home over a Philly team that is VERY comparable to Milwaukee and a -7.5 point favorite against the Clippers at home (minus Kawhi). The Jazz won both of those games and are unbeaten at home this season. Last year the Jazz were 29-12 SU at home with the 6th best home point differential at +7.9PPG. Going back further the Jazz are 30-16 their last 46 regular season home games with an average winning margin of +4.8PPG (11th best in the NBA). Milwaukee is clearly one of the best teams in the NBA and have some impressive road numbers including a 27-14 SU record away from home in the regular season last year. The Bucks road differential a season ago was +5.6PPG which was 2nd best in the league but that’s barely better than the spread here. The home team has won and covered 4 in a row in this series and with the vast majority of public money and tickets bet on the Bucks, we’ll go opposite and take the home team Jazz.

ASA 10* Play On: #552 Denver Nuggets -4.5 over Miami Heat, 9PM ET – We are getting value here with the home team Nuggets who are off to a slow start by the standards set for them this season, while the Heat are over-valued by a hot start. Miami does have a pair of quality wins on their resume against Houston and Milwaukee, but their other three wins have come against Atlanta and Memphis. With a 5-1 SU record and a public team, the Heat will have the Nuggets full attention tonight. Denver is 71-21 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season with an average margin of victory of +7.9PPG. Last season Denver had the second most efficient offense in the NBA at home last year at 1.172PPG and the 5th best defensive efficiency allowing 1.064PPP. Denver was 34-7 at home last year and won by an average of 10.6PPG. The Heat are clearly over-valued tonight considering they were a 7-point dog at a lesser Minnesota and +11.5 points in Milwaukee. This Nuggets team was one of the favorites to win it all this season. Denver lost their last home contest and will send a message tonight. Lay the points.

ASA 10* play on: LA Clippers -4 over Utah Jazz, 9PM ET – The Clippers are the best team in the NBA right now and Paul George hasn’t even seen the floor yet. Here’s what we’ve seen in this small sample size of the NBA. The Clippers have played the 4th toughest schedule to date based on opponents offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, yet they have the 11th best point differential at +4.7PPG. They are unbeaten at home with a point differential of +10.4PPG. Utah is going to be one of the better NBA teams this season, but they’ve played the second easiest schedule and current numbers are inflated. Utah faced the Lakers in Los Angeles earlier this season and were plus +3.5 points so the adjustment by the oddsmakers isn’t enough for the better of the two L.A. teams. Just how good is Kawhi Leonard you ask? He currently leads the Clippers in scoring, rebounding and assists. The Clippers just lost in Utah the other night but Kawhi was rested due to load management. He’ll play here and lead the Clippers to a double-digit home win.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th!  They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back.  They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game.  The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition.  They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston.  They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers.  Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston.  On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well.  On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL.  This team is better than their 3-4 record.  Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense).  Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati.  The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games.  They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG.  That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season.  Oakland wins and covers at home.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337

Perfect set up to back a solid underdog in this one. While Virginia fell just short at Louisville last week, the Tar Heels hung on for a tight win over Duke last week in Chapel Hill. The Cavaliers lost the turnover battle 2-0 against the Cardinals and that factored into their loss. Speaking of turnovers, the Blue Devils threw an INT from the NC 2-yard line with under half a minute to go in the 3 point Heels win. After winning a nail-biter like that in dramatic fashion, the Tar Heels could be a little spent this week. That is why they are such a small favorite here despite being at home and facing a Cavaliers team that has lost 3 straight road games. This line looks like an open invitation to take the home team minus the short number and, of course, you know what that generally leads to - a road dog upset! The Heels were fortunate to escape with the win over Duke last week and they won't be so fortunate here. North Carolina is just 1-5 ATS the last 6 times they have been a favorite. Also, the Cavaliers are looking to make it 3 in a row (both SU and ATS) in meetings with UNC as they have had their number in recent meetings. Virginia has been solid defending the pass this season as they are allowing only 58% completions and 166 passing yards per game. Comparing that to North Carolina (64% completions and 242 passing yards allowed per game) and it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for the Cavs to hold a significant edge over the Heels in the passing game in this one. The Tar Heels were fortunate to hang on against Duke and that tight win was preceded by North Carolina losing 3 of their past 4 games including losing to a Sun Belt Conference team and losing to a Virginia Tech team that is really down this season. 3 of UNC's 4 wins this season have come by a combined total of just 10 points and, again, the Tar Heels already have 4 losses this season too. The Cavaliers had allowed 17 points or less in 5 of their first 7 games this season. Coming off a disappointing loss where they gave up 28 points, Virginia's defense is poised for a strong bounce back effort here. The Cavs catch the Tar Heels in a tough spot here as they have played back to back brutally tough games. The war with Duke was preceded by a 6-OT loss at Virginia Tech. Look for North Carolina to run out of gas as this game goes on and the Cavaliers pull away down the stretch. Grab the points with Virginia as a road dog in early evening action Saturday.

ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

We love the value here with the Jets.  This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored.  We just don’t see that.  This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5.  In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football.  They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers.  The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses.  We often see teams play much better off games like this.  Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week.  We definitely have that in this game.  Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas.  Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion.  We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game.  They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense).  They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season.  Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position.  Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9.  The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense.  They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that.  He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season.  Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed.  They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points.  QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted.   In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception.  He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games.  In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown.  That’s it.  He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry.  We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win.  Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one.  

ASA 10* play on: Indiana Pacers -5.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET

These two teams have very different season projections with the Pacers expected to win roughly 48 games while the Cavs season win total is 24. That essentially tells us what these teams are all about, so we have a good team off a loss laying a marginal number on the road. Granted, the Cavaliers are off a loss too but again, they are not a good team. Last season the Pacers were 18-17 SU off a loss, Cleveland was 15-47. Last year the Pacers were favored by -9.5-points and -7-points, so we have some value in today’s spread. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA a season ago with a top 10 road defensive efficiency ratings. The Cavs last season had the 3rd worst home point differential at minus -7.3PPG and were last in home defensive efficiency ratings. In the 4 meetings last season the Pacers won by 8 or more points. The Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings on this court. Lay the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169

Oklahoma State is off what, on the surface, appears to be a blowout loss to Baylor 45-27 last week. However, that game unraveled late for the Cowboys as they were done in by late turnovers. Note that the Bears pulled away late in the game courtesy of some key turnovers. The fact is that Oklahoma State had 27 first downs in the game compared to 18 for Baylor. The point we're making here is that the Cowboys weren't nearly as bad as the final score would indicate in last week's loss and now they're catching double digits against an Iowa State team that comes into this game overvalued. The Cyclones two toughest games this season were hosting Iowa and visiting Baylor. Iowa State lost both games. The Cyclones do have a bye on deck but then face Oklahoma and Texas. Both the Sooners and Longhorns beat Iowa State last season and the loss to the Sooners was the only Big 12 home loss that the Cyclones had all season long. Should the Cyclones lose focus a bit here against a Cowboys team that is 1-3 in Big 12 action (Oklahoma and Texas a combined 7-1 in Big 12 action), Oklahoma State absolutely can make them pay. The Cowboys rank 8th in the nation in total offense this season and Oklahoma State is playing this game with revenge from a home loss to the Cyclones last year. While Iowa State is playing for the 7th consecutive week (and 3 of last 4 have been on the road), the Cowboys had a bye week two weeks ago and will prove to be the fresher team in this match-up. Also, from a motivational standpoint, OSU will bring their A game this week after B2B SU losses by a double digit margin. In fact, this play is also supported by an angle along those lines. The Cyclones are 0-6 ATS the last 6 times they've been favored by 19.5 points or less against an opponent off B2B SU losses including the most recent defeat coming by a double digit margin. The Cowboys will be ready Saturday and have the offense to stay within a score throughout this conference clash. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma State as a sizable road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Toronto Raptors, 7PM ET – We like the situation and will back the home team Celtics here off a loss in the opener. Toronto is off a home win which was much tougher than it should have been against the Pelicans. The Celtics lost in Philly the other night and the main contributing factor was poor shooting by the C’s. Boston hit just 36.7% of their overall FG attempts and under 27% from beyond the arc. Those numbers are drastically lower than their season averages a year ago and now they are at home in a more friendly shooting environment. Last season Boston had a top 12 team at home in: margin of victory, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. Granted, Toronto had good road numbers too but that was with Kawhi Leonard who is clearly one of the three best players in the entire NBA. Against a bad defensive team from a year ago, the Pelicans (23rd in DEFF), the Raptors shot just 40% a team and benefited from ‘home cooking’ and +15 free throw makes in their win. Boston is 84-49 SU versus the East since 2017 and 57-26 SU at home as a favorite in that same time frame. With the line where it is, we are basically asking the Celtics to just win this game which they’ll do by more than the spread. Boston has covered four straight at home over Toronto and the host is on a 9-0 spread run.

ASA PLAY ON: NY KNICKS +10.5 over San Antonio Spurs, 8:30PM ET – It’s a fresh start and the Knicks have a clean slate to start the season after tanking last year. New York doesn’t know how bad they’re going to be this season, so we expect a max effort tonight in San Antonio. In fairness to New York they will win more than 17 games this year with a semi-talented roster that can beat just about anyone in the East on any given night. Julius Randle is coming off his best season with 21PPG, 8.7RPG and 3.1APG and can play at a very high level. The backcourt is athletic with Dennis Smith Jr, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock (out) and RJ Barrett. Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson brings veteran leadership and toughness while Kevin Knox and Bobby Portis have huge upside. New York was a dismal 8-32 SU on the road last season with an average differential of minus -10.8PPG which is essentially tonight’s spread AND that record is with them trying to lose to get the #1 pick in the draft! San Antonio returns a roster of veterans and youth and basically stood pat in free agency. They do get Dejounte Murray back from injury who is a budding star, but he did miss the entire season a year ago. The Spurs were 34-10 SU a year ago at home with an average margin of victory of just +6.7PPG. San Antonio was one of the slowest paced teams at home last year which makes covering larger numbers more difficult with less chances to score for each team. San Antonio was a double-digit home favorite 8 times last year and they only covered twice. New York stays within the number here. Grab the points!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET

Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion.  Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points.  Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona.  All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play.  The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field.  Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week.  Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards.  Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle).  The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40).  The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL).  Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance.  Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore.  They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year).  They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game.  Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog.  We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372

Washington State is coming in extra hungry for a win off 3 consecutive losses. Last week they led Arizona State on the road late and the Devils picked up a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining to get the 38-34 win. Their game prior to that was a loss @ Utah and a flat spot coming off an embarrassing home loss. Speaking of their most recent home game it was a full month ago and it was an embarrassment as we said with the Cougars blowing a 49-17 lead in a 67-64 loss to UCLA. Now back at home for the first time since blowing that massive lead, you can bet WSU won’t hold back here. No lead is too safe will be their outlook. This is a bad spot for Colorado playing their 2nd of back to back road game after getting destroyed 45-3 @ Oregon last week. It’s not only a bad situation but a terrible match up for the Buffs. The Colorado defense is one of the worst in the nation at defending the pass and WSU QB Anthony Gordon can wing it with the best of them. The Buff defense currently ranks 123rd nationally in total defense (out of 130), 118th in pass efficiency defense, and 124th in passing yards allowed. Those terrible numbers INCLUDE a game vs Air Force who rarely passes and still threw for 155 yards on CU. On Saturday they face a Washington State passing offense that ranks #1 nationally lighting it up for 453 YPG through the air. Their QB Gordon is completing 71% of his passes and has 25 TD’s and just 6 interceptions on the year. The CU defense has allowed 30 or more points in EVERY game this season and they will not stop this Cougar offense that will be on a mission in this game. We expect upper 40’s to 50+ from WSU in this game. The Colorado offense is reeling a bit after scoring only 3 points last week @ Oregon and we don’t expect them to be able to keep up in this game. WSU has dominated the last 2 games in this series (one on the road and one at home) winning 31-7 last year and 28-0 the previous year with a combined yardage edge of +412. These two both have 3-3 record but there is a reason State is favored by almost 2 TD’s. They have a +1.2 YPP margin on the year while Colorado has a -1.1 YPP margin. Washington State is better than their record and CU should not be a .500 team. Lay it in this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate.  The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense.  Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game.  Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win.  Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP.  The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth.  After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games.  Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye.  They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in.  The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles.  They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again.  All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

We love this spot for the Rams.  They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday.  It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday.  Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home.  The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night.  So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion.  The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15.  Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG?  We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season?  The value and situation absolutely favor LA here.  In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times.  Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times.  San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower.  The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston.  This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff.  Now to the LA defense.  After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points.  However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced.  They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced.  We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances.  We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses.  This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public.  This team is simply not very good.  Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins.  The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.  The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT.  Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season.  The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less.  They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively.  Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore?  The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here.  Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football.  Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk.  Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite.  Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals.  The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10.  This one should be close.  Take the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128

We love taking the defensive home underdog in this game.  Temple’s defense ranks 20th nationally in total defense.  They have held 4 of their 5 opponents to 17 points or less.  The Owls are 4-1 on the season and they have outgained every opponent yet they are getting nearly a TD at home in this game.  Memphis is undefeated and has a potent offense, however they have played a plethora of poor defenses this year.  In fact, they have played only ONE defense this season ranked higher than 73rd and that was Navy.  In that game Memphis was held to just 301 total yards and that game was in Memphis.  The Tigers were down 20-7 in the 2nd quarter but a 99 yard kickoff return turned the game around and Memphis got the win.  We expect their offense will struggle on Saturday.  The Tigers have actually been outgained in each of their last 2 games including last week @ UL Monroe.  In their win last week, the Tigers also had fewer first downs and faced a ULM defense ranked 126th nationally.  Now they turn around on the road again and face a top 20 defense.  That’s a tall task for a team that we feel comes in drastically overvalued.  Temple’s offense is averaging a very solid 445 YPG while allowing only 292 YPG and they have a +1.7 YPP differential.  ULM’s offense rolled up nearly 600 yards last week on the Memphis D so we expect the Owls to have plenty of success on that side of the ball.  Add that to a defense that can absolutely slow down Memphis and we have an upset brewing.  Temple was a home dog once already this year and they beat Maryland outright in that game.  In fact, the last 7 times the Owls have been a home dog of 12 points or less, they are a perfect 7-0 ATS.  As a home dog in general, Temple has covered 12 of their last 15.  Situationally this game also favors the host as Temple played on Thursday so 10 days to prepare while Memphis on the road for their 2nd straight game after playing @ Louisiana Monroe last Saturday.  We think Temple has a great shot to win this game outright and we’ll take the points.

ASA play on: Cleveland Browns +5 over San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20PM ET  - When we compare the key stats between these two teams we see some clear advantages on paper for San Francisco but we never just look at the numbers. We dig deeper. The Niners have one of the best rush defenses statistically in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per rush which ranks them 3rd. But they’ve played the Bengals (30th), Steelers (27th) and Bucs (24th) who are three of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt. San Francisco will be tested here by a Browns offense that is 9th in RYPA at 4.9. That’s a big key for Cleveland as a strong running game takes pressure off QB Mayfield and opens up the play action pass. Sticking to that theme, the 49ers defense is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but again, that’s a byproduct of the poor offenses they’ve faced.  The Browns on the other hand are starting to look like a team that was hyped to be a contender in the AFC this season. Cleveland has the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL and have faced two of the best offenses already in Baltimore and the L.A. Rams. Jimmy G and the 49ers are 3-0 on the season but the three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 SU record. San Francisco is off a bye but that hasn’t helped them in the past as they are on an 0-6 ATS streak in that scheduling situation. The Niners are 7-17 ATS their last 24 home games and the last time they covered as a home favorite was 2014 with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. In fact, the 49ers are 1-12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last fourteen. Cleveland on the other hand excels as an underdog with a 9-5 ATS record dating back to the start of last season. SF has benefited with 2.3 takeaways per game, but they’ve also turned in over 2.7 times per game which is worst in the NFL. Don’t trust a favorite that doesn’t take care of the football. PLAY ON BROWNS!

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

This line looks fishy to us.  The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points?  Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher?  A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5.  The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year.  Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one.  We actually like this Denver team.  They are much better than their 0-4 record.  They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville.  They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers.  We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers.  They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins.  Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP.  If not for that, the Colts win that game.  Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play.  While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP.  LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday.  The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host.  This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here.  The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover.     

ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This is a tough spot for the Jags as this will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks including last week’s come from behind win @ Denver.  Last week Jacksonville fell behind 17-3 @ Denver and had to battle their way back to get the last second win with a FG as time expired.  The fact is, the Broncos ran 22 fewer offensive plays in that game and it still took a late FG to win the game for the Jaguars.  Denver outgained Jacksonville on a YPP basis 6.9 to 6.0 but the Bronco defense allowed RB Leonard Fournette to run wild racking up 225 yards on the ground.  Fournette had not topped 70 yards rushing in any game leading up to that performance so we see that as an outlier.  Everyone is talking about the impact that QB Minshew has had on the Jags but how about Carolina QB Allen getting some notice?  He gives the Panthers a much better chance to win compared to a banged up Cam Newton who couldn’t throw the ball down the field at all.  Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and has thrown for almost 500 yards and 4 TD’s with no interceptions.  His QBR is 65.8 which currently would rank him 6th in the NFL if he had enough snaps under his belt.  For comparison’s sake, Minshew’s QBR is 47.0 which is 18th in the NFL and while we feel he is a very solid rookie, the hype has become a little much.  Minshew also tweaked his knee late in last week’s game and is not 100% and was held out of practice until midweek.  His counterpart Allen is not just another guy thrown in under center, he was a 5* QB recruit that actually beat out Heisman winner and Arizona QB Kyler Murray at Texas A&M prompting Murray to transfer to Oklahoma.  He’s definitely not just another guy.  Another aspect of Carolina’s team that gets overlooked is their defense which is really good.  The Panthers currently rank 4th in the NFL in total defense allowing only 287 YPG and 2nd in YPP defense allowing just 4.3.  Since losing 30-27 to the Rams in the season opener, Carolina has not allowed more than 20 points.  They are very close to being 4-0 rather than 2-2 with close losses to the Rams & an emerging Tampa team.  We would argue that if Allen had been under center since day one, this team might be 4-0.  Add in the strong ATS stat that has Jacksonville just 4-20 ATS their last 24 games vs NFC team and this one looks solid.  Just a very good situation to grab a surging Carolina team at home in this one.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -15 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Horrible match up for the Skins.  It looks like Washington head coach Jay Gruden will be starting rookie Dwayne Haskins at QB or veteran Colt McCoy which is not ideal vs the Patriots top notch defense.  Haskins came in last week vs a bad Giant defense and threw 3 interceptions in their 24-3 loss and they were outgained by over 200 yards.  McCoy hasn’t taken a snap this season and has had very little practice time with his receivers due to his recovery from last year’s broken leg.  If this offense with Haskins at the helm could only score 3 points vs a Giant defense that had allowed at least 28 points in every other game, what are they going to do against a New England defense that has allowed one TD the ENTIRE season.  While this line is obviously high, it’s nothing new to the Patriots who have now been favored by more than 14 points three times this season.  They controlled the other two games they were tabbed big favorites vs Miami & NY Jets outscoring them by a combined 73-14 and we’d put Washington in that terrible team category at the moment.  There are also rumblings of Gruden being fired as early as next week so there are plenty of distractions to go along with this 0-4 team.  Expect New England to play very well as they are coming off a poor outing.  They did beat Buffalo 16-10 but they were outgained drastically by the Bills and Tom Brady had his worst QB rating in 13 years in that game.  The Redskin defense had allowed 30 or more points in every game until the Giants scored 24 last week.  The Patriots coming off a poor offensive showing should have a field day against this defense on Sunday.  They shouldn’t have to score much to get this cover either.  We don’t anticipate Washington doing much of anything offensively so New England scoring 24 or more will probably get this done.  Lay it with the Patriots.   Our MATH MODEL projects a Patriot 35-10 win giving us an easy cover.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356

We’re getting tremendous line value with this play on Michigan. The line in late summer, before the college football season started, came out on this game at Michigan -14. Now we realize the Wolverines have not lived up to their pre-season hype and they were a bit overvalued coming into the year, but now we feel the opposite is true. Getting them at home at -3.5 is a bargain in our opinion. We also feel that Iowa is now the overvalued team coming into this game with a 4-0 record. That sets this up perfectly to grab the Wolverines at home. These teams have played 2 common opponents at home (Rutgers & Middle Tennessee State) and both won easily. Let’s look strictly at the line in those 2 games so you can get a feel for the value we have with Michigan here. The Wolverines were favored by 36 points vs MTSU while Iowa was favored by 23. That tells us on a neutral field the oddsmakers felt Michigan would be a 13 point favorite. Michigan just played Rutgers last weekend and they were a 28 point favorite. Iowa played the Knights a few weeks ago and were laying 18. That tells us Michigan was 10-points better than Iowa on a neutral field. So if we split the difference were looking at Michigan -11.5 on a neutral. Even if we take the lower difference and then adjust it down a few points from there, at worst Michigan would be favored by 8 or 9 on a neutral field vs Iowa. You see where we are going here with the line value. People have had too big of an overreaction to the way Michigan lost @ Wisconsin a few weeks ago. We watched that entire game in person and then again on tape. It was just one of those games where Wisky played well, but also caught some breaks (4 Michigan turnovers) to get a big lead which changed Michigan’s entire game plan. Things spiraled out of control from there. The Wolverines are much better than they played in that game, yet this line doesn’t reflect that. Iowa is 4-0 on the season but they have played one team thus far with a pulse and that was Iowa State. It was a game the Hawkeyes were outgained by more than 100 yards, trailed for most of the game but rallied for an 18-17 win. In that game ISU averaged 7.7 yards per play while the Hawkeyes averaged 4.4 YPP. Iowa won the turnover battle 2 to 0 and they were very lucky to win. The other teams they’ve played this year have a combined record of 2-9 this year vs other FBS teams. They also have yet to leave the state of Iowa. In last week’s game vs Rutgers head coach Jim Harbaugh moved offensive coordinator Josh Gattis from the pressbox to the sidelines as he felt more face to face discussion with Gattis and his QB’s would help. It seemed to do so as QB Patterson had his best game of the year. Granted it was vs Rutgers but we feel this move will help the offense moving forward. Defensively we expect an extremely motivated Michigan unit after they were pushed around a few weeks ago by Wisconsin and have heard about it ever since. Iowa will bring a similar gameplan although they are not on the same level as Wisconsin at this point and the Wolverines are at home for this one rather than on the road. They won’t be caught off guard here. We like the match up for Michigan and feel Iowa is overrated right now. but most of all we love the value with this number as we discussed earlier. Michigan gets the win and cover at home.

NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195

Ohio State continues to come out and play great in the first half. Many of their games they lead by so much at half they take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. They have outscored their 4 opponents 135-18 in the first half this season. On the year, the Buckeyes have had 32 first half offensive possessions and scored TD’s on 19 of those (60%). We see no way this poor Nebraska defense has any chance of slowing down the Bucks. The Huskers looked OK vs South Alabama (allowed 21 points) and Northern Illinois (allowed 8 points), however those 2 teams are ranked 118th and 110th respectively in total offense. Colorado lit them up for 34 points & Illinois scored 28 last week and those two teams are ranked 56th and 89th in total offense. You get where we are going here. OSU will be, by far, the best offense they have faced this season. They have scored 51 on Indiana (30 in the first half) and IU has allowed a total of 27 points in their other 3 games. They scored 42 (28 at half) on a very good Cincinnati defense that is allowing 13.5 PPG in their other games this season. Last week they put it all together and rolled up 76 points (49 at half) vs Miami (Oh). Can Nebraska keep up here? We don’t think so especially in the first half. After an off year in 2018, the OSU defense ranks 2nd nationally behind only Wisconsin allowing 222 YPG and they’ve only given up 36 total points in 4 games on the season. We see Ohio State getting a big lead early here and we’ll lay the points (-9.5 at time of publishing this) in the first half Saturday evening.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105

Last season these teams also met in Duke's ACC opener. At the time the Blue Devils were rolling along with a 4-0 start to the season and had moved into the Top 25 for the first time. That came to an abrupt halt when, after 4 straight wins by an average victory of margin of 22.3 points per game, Duke got upended as a 7 point home favorite and lost by 17 points to Virginia Tech. The fact is that the Hokies have been a "thorn in the side" of David Cutcliffe and the Blue Devils and there is nothing sweeter than getting revenge in "their house" in a weeknight primetime game with the ESPN cameras rolling. Duke opened this season getting a beatdown at the hands of Alabama - just as most teams do when they face the Crimson Tide - but the Blue Devils responded with back to back dominating wins over much softer competition. The Hokies have been much less impressive as they opened the season losing at Boston College and Virginia Tech was favored in that game. The Hokies then followed that up with a couple of victories against lesser competition but they were very unimpressive in those games. Virginia Tech struggled against both Old Dominion and Furman in non-covering wins. The Hokies actually trailed Furman 14 to 3 at the half two weeks ago! Duke QB Quentin Harris is a senior and has run the ball well in addition to putting up solid numbers through the air. Harris will take advantage of a Virginia Tech defense that fell off drastically last year (31 ppg and 439 ypg). Early indications this season are that the Hokies defensive struggles will continue in conference play as Boston College had 432 yards against Virginia Tech in the season opener (and conference opener) for the Hokies. In terms of Virginia Tech's history against Duke (with David Cutcliffe as the Blue Devils head coach), the dog has covered 8 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, both teams enter off a bye week but it is the Blue Devils that have covered 5 in a row ATS when they are an underdog coming off a bye. Additionally, when Duke is off a non-conference game and on the road against a conference foe, the Blue Devils have covered 9 of the last 10 times. This is a triple revenge spot for Cutcliffe's team and they are undervalued considering how poorly Virginia Tech has played on both sides of the ball this season. Grab the points with Duke as a road dog in early evening action Friday.

ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET

This is simply a huge game for the Eagles.  They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East.  Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0.  On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie.  At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down.  They’ve definitely had their chances.  If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses.  Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG.  They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL).  While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now.  As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense.  It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game).  The offensive numbers have been poor.  They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL).  They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play.  The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets.   That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer.  Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas.  Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now.  Take the points with Philadelphia.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

The Packers are 2-0 however we’re not sure they deserve to be a TD+ favorite in this spot.  Their first two wins have come by 7 & 5 over division rivals Bears & Vikings.  Now playing an AFC team with a Thursday night meeting vs Philadelphia on deck in not an ideal situation for Green Bay.  The Packer offense is still a work in progress and we don’t see them pulling away from anyone right now.  They’ve been outgained by 127 yards in their 2 games.  They were very fortunate in last week’s win over the Vikings as the Minnesota offense tallied an impressive 7.0 yards per play while the Packers only put up 4.9 YPP.  This is a huge game for Denver as they cannot afford to drop to 0-3.  Unlike the Packers, the Broncos have outgained each of their first two opponents including Chicago last week (+99 yards for Denver).  While Denver’s offense seems to be in question, they put up 273 yards on 4.9 YPP and 21 first downs in their 1-point loss to Chicago last week.  Compare that to Green Bay’s offense that tallied just 213 total yards on 3.7 YPP and only 13 first downs vs the same Chicago defense a week earlier.  Where this total sits at 43 the expected final score is Green Bay 25, Denver 17 or so.  With Packer offense sputtering early in the year, we don’t expect them to light up a very solid Denver defense.  The Broncos have allowed just 5 of their last 23 opponents to top 24 points and we don’t expect Green Bay to do so on Sunday.  Tough to lay over a TD with GB’s sputtering offense vs a team that is in a do or die spot.  Take the points with Denver.

ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be.  The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis.  That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts.  We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota.  The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener.  While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16.  Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday.  While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season.  That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota.  The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game.  The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349

The Cougars are at home in this game and that is truly where their advantages begin and end. The Huskies are the better team all over the field and, from a situation standpoint, this is a fantastic spot for fading BYU. The Cougars have had one of the toughest schedules in the nation to open up this season. For Brigham Young, this will be their 4th straight game against a Power 5 Conference opponent. The Cougars suffered a home loss against Utah in BYU's home opener. Then they went on the road and won a dramatic multiple-OT game at Tennessee. The Cougars then came home and won another OT game against Southern Cal. To summarize, BYU has already played an SEC team and a pair of Pac-12 teams and now faces another Pac-12 team this week. Coming off back to back OT games (both wins) and truly getting dominated in their lone loss, we feel it all catches up with the Cougars here. BYU is facing a Washington team that blasted them 35 to 7 last season and the scoreboard was no fluke as the Huskies outgained the Cougars 474 to 194 in that game! While Brigham Young entered this season with a total of just 10 regular season wins the past two seasons combined, Washington entered this season having notched at least 10 regular season wins in each of the past three seasons! Last week the Huskies blasted Hawaii and were at home. In BYU's win last week they beat a USC team that started a back-up quarterback making his first ever road start because of the season-ending injury to JT Daniels. Certainly the Cougars face a much tougher test this week as they now face a Washington offense led by QB Jacob Eason (a transfer from SEC powerhouse Georgia). He is already averaging over 250 passing yards per game with 7 TDs against just 1 INT in the first 3 games. If you take away the OT scoring, BYU is averaging only 18.3 points per game in regulation this season. The Cougars won't be able to keep up with a Huskies team that already "learned their lesson" early this season with a 20-19 loss to Cal as a 2-TD favorite two weeks ago. Having already been tripped up once early this season (but scoring 49.5 points per game in their other two games) we look for a dominating effort from the road team in this one. Lay it with Washington in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Atlanta Braves (-1.5 runs) over Philadelphia Phillies, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET

Great set up here as both teams were off yesterday and the Braves still have plenty to play for while the Phillies are down and out.  Philadelphia has seen their wild card playoff chances slip away due to a late season slump while the Braves are still looking to officially lock up the NL East.  Also, Atlanta still has home field motivation as well as they battle with the Dodgers for the #1 spot in the NL.  Of course the above, plus a big pitching edge, is why the Braves are priced as a big favorite here.  We'll avoid the big price on the money line by making use of the run line in this match-up.  Atlanta is available for a play here without juice if we lay the 1.5 runs and there is certainly likelihood of a home blowout here.  The Phillies are 6-15 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175.  The Braves are off a shutout loss on Sunday and Atlanta is 18-8 this season after scoring 2 runs or less in their prior game.  Also, Philadelphia is 0-6 in the last 6 starts Vince Velasquez has made against the Braves.  Velasquez has gone 0-5 in those 6 games and has compiled an 8.46 ERA in those 6 outings!  This is not outdated history either.  All 6 of these starts have come since the start of last season.  Also, Velasquez enters this start struggling overall as he has a 5.48 ERA in the 14 starts he has made since rejoining the rotation.  Dallas Keuchel gets the start for the Braves here and he has allowed 2 or less earned runs in all 4 of the starts he has made against the Phillies in his career and that includes a pair of outings this season as well.  Additionally, Keuchel enters this start in top current form as he has an 0.97 ERA in his last six starts overall.  21 of the Phillies 29 losses since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  29 of the Braves 39 wins since the All Star break have come by a margin of 2 or more runs.  Lay it as Atlanta bounces back from Sunday's shutout loss!  Bet the Braves -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday

ASA 10* PLAY ON Atlanta +2 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

Hard to say teams are in must win mode in the 2nd week of the season, however we can put the Falcons in that category.  After losing @ Minnesota to start the season (not surprising) they host the Eagles on Sunday night.  After this game the Falcons are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games so this game becomes extremely important.  In their loss in Minneapolis, the Birds are +9 first downs & +75 yards.  However, they turned the ball over 3 times and had a punt blocked as well.  All four of those miscues led to Minnesota TD’s which accounted to ALL 28 of their points.  Here they face a Philadelphia team that got down 17-0 at home – 20-7 at half – vs a Washington team that was a 10 point dog in the game.  They came back to win 32-27 but weren’t overly impressive in their opener.  The Philly defense allowed Case Keenum and the Skins to throw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s.  Now they face a much more potent Atlanta passing game, especially at home where QB Matt Ryan had a 118 passer rating last year compared to 99 on the road.  These two met in last year’s season opener in Philadelphia.  The Eagles scored a late TD with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pull off the 18-12 come from behind win despite getting outgained by the Falcons.  Matt Ryan is 10-1 ATS in home openers and he gets another win here.  Take the points with Atlanta.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night @ New England and we have a feeling they bounce back and play very well on Sunday in their home opener.  Roethlisberger has been unbeatable (8-0 ATS) when coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career.   We suspect he’ll have a big day vs a Seattle defense that allowed Bengal QB Andy Dalton to shred them for a career high 418 yards last Sunday.  Seattle picked up the win in that game 21-20 but they were lucky to do so getting outgained by nearly 200 yards.  In the game the Bengals averaged 6.1 yards per play to just 4.8 for Seattle.  The offensive line looked shaky at best paving the way for only 72 rushing yards while Russell Wilson was only able to pass for 160 yards.  Looks like the Steeler defense will be a reprieve this week after facing Tom Brady and the precise New England offense last week.  We’ll give the Pittsburgh defense a break last week as they did look terrible but much of that we feel was the New England offense.  This is still a defense that finished 6th in total defense and YPP defense last year.  They’ll look much better this week and have a chip on their shoulder based on last week’s poor performance.  Seattle’s ATS numbers as an underdog are solid, however they have been terrible in their road openers going 2-12 SU / 1-12-1 ATS since 2005.  On the other side, when the Steelers are coming off a loss and favored by 3 or more points, they are 18-5 ATS since 2010.  This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh and we’ll lay the points.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191

This is a BIG number posted on this game but UCLA is showing a BIG problem early this season. The Bruins came into this 2nd season under Chip Kelly knowing that their offense was going to have to lead the way. Of course that has long been the story with teams led by Chip Kelly and last season was no exception as the defense ranked 102nd in the nation as they allowed 445 yards per game. The big problem is that the offense was supposed to be much improved in the 2nd year in Chip Kelly's systems but they have looked absolutely awful. The Bruins are getting horrible QB play and their offensive efficiency (3.71 yards per play) ranks them 128th out of 130 teams! While UCLA has 479 yards of offense on the season, the Sooners have nearly a thousand more as they have piled up 1,417 yards of offense. Oklahoma's efficiency on offense is 10.92 yards per play which ranks them #1 in the nation. This is why, even though this is a big number of points to lay on the road, we have no hesitation in laying it with the Sooners here. Oklahoma is going to do what they always do which is score nearly every time their offense takes possession of the ball. The Bruins just don't have the ability to keep up here. The UCLA offense right now can't even get out of its own way, that is how bad it has been. Also, Oklahoma has a bye on deck and this is their first road game of the season. Look for a strong game from the defense as the Sooners D is viewing this as a very important game to come up with a big effort on the road. The reason is because this is their final non-conference game of the season as Big 12 play begins for the Sooners after their upcoming bye week. While the Sooners have a bye on deck, UCLA has their Pac-12 opener up next! Huge edges here for the Sooners! In terms of their production on offense, Oklahoma averaged 48 points per game last season and they put up 49 points in Week 1 this season (and then 70 last week but against South Dakota). UCLA has scored just 14 points in each of their games. Given those stats it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is forecasting a victory margin in the 5 TD range (35 points). Lay it with Oklahoma in evening action Saturday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +7.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 7:10 PM ET

Houston is too good to be getting a full TD in this game.  We’re talking about a playoff team from a year ago (11-5 record) that upgraded their weak spot (offensive line) by adding LT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best in the game.  They are facing a New Orleans team that might be a bit overhyped entering the season.  The Saints are also a notoriously slow starting team going 0-10 ATS and 1-9 SU in their first 2 games of the season (over the last 5 years).  They are also 0-5 ATS since 2015 as home favorites in September.  Last year if you remember, in the opener the Saints were favored by 10 at home vs a bad Tampa team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.  The Bucs won the game 48-40.  In their 2nd game, also at home, they barely held on to beat Cleveland by 3 points.  Now we have one of the better teams in the AFC getting a full TD?  We’ll take that.   Houston has a solid defense and with Deshaun Watson at QB, they can definitely score enough points to keep up with the Saints if needed.  It’s also been a very solid investment to take Monday Night underdogs during the first week of the season as they are 25-15 ATS since the late 80’s.  We think Houston gives the Saints all they can handle on Monday and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise.  Houston and the points here.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +6 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

The Pats are notorious for their slow starts as they tend extend their preseason into the first few games of the regular season so to speak.  Head coach Belichick adjusts and tweaks early in the season until he finds the line ups he feels are most effective.  Last year the Patriots lost to Jacksonville & Detroit early in the season, two teams that ended the year with losing records.  A year earlier New England lost to both Carolina & KC, both games at home, early in the season.  They were favored in all of those games and were -7 or more in 3 of the 4.  Brady may take some time to adjust without top target Gronkowski in the line up and their offensive line could be a problem this year.  Starting LT Trent Brown left in the off-season and he is being replaced Isaiah Wynn who hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL.  They are also starting a guard who is a career back up.  Pats will be good but it may take some time this year.  We are much higher on Pittsburgh than many.  We feel this will be an addition by subtraction situation with RB Bell & WR Brown, two problems in the locker room, now gone.  We’re hearing the chemistry for the Steelers is MUCH better right now than it was at any point last year.  Roethlisberger is back and he has plenty of weapons offensively.  We have the Steeler defense pegged as one of the best in the NFL this year (finished 6th in the NFL last year in YPG & YPP allowed).  Roethlisberger has been historically very good as an underdog with a 34-18-3 ATS lifetime record.  Even more impressive he has a winning outright record 30-25 SU in those games as an underdog!  We realize that New England has done very well vs Pittsburgh, however we think this is a different circumstance.  Take Pitt + the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

We think the betting market has overreacted to the loss of Andrew Luck for the Colts.  This line was at Chargers -3 and now has jumped to -6.5 and some at -7.  That’s move is too much in our opinion.  While Andrew Luck was very important to this team, the Colts are solid across the board.  They were in the top 10 in many defensive categories last year including scoring, total yards, yards per play, and yards per rush.  On offense Jacoby Brissett is a more than capable back up and we actually consider him a middle of the pack starter in the NFL.  He’s not great, but he’s not bad either.  He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that is definitely one of the best in the NFL.  They were ranked the 4th best rush blocking unit and 2nd best at pass blocking in the entire NFL last year by Football Outsiders.  All 5 starters are back up front so they will be very good again.  The LA Chargers are without their top RB Melvin Gordon and their home field advantage is very minimal at their make shift soccer stadium in LA which holds 27,000.  In fact, for many of their home games there are just as many opposing fans as Charger fans.  They were just 2-6 at home ATS last year.  Our word is the Colt players really like Brissett.  The locker room is very tight and we feel they will play on Sunday to show everyone this team was and is more than just Andrew Luck.  Expect an inspired effort from a very solid Colts team as they give the Chargers all they can handle on Sunday.  Take the points.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line says that the Bills & Jets are rated basically the same and on a neutral field we’d have a pick-em game.  We disagree.  We have Buffalo rated as the stronger team and we’ll take the points here.  We’re getting a strong defensive divisional underdog which always makes us sit up and take notice.  Buffalo’s defense was outstanding last year.  They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense behind Baltimore only.  They also finished 3rd in YPP defense and #1 in the NFL in pass defense.  The Bills split with the Jets last year but a closer look reveals they dominated despite the 1-1 record.  Buffalo won at NY 41-10 as an underdog last year and lost a tight game at home 27-23.  In those two games combined, the Bills had 820 total yards to just 447 for the Jets.  Their defense held NY to 3.6 & 4.7 yards per play.  Expect them to stifle the Jets offense again on Sunday.   Many discount the preseason but we do make note that Buffalo was 4-0 and looked very good.  They have very solid continuity with the entire coaching staff back this year.  The Jets, on the other hand, have a new head coach Adam Gase and new coordinators on both sides of the ball.  While we expect New York to be improved, there will be a transition period with Gase in charge.  There are a few technical points that back the Bills here as well.  First, the underdog has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings OUTRIGHT.  Second, NFL division underdogs in week 1 of the season are a money making 17-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons.  Our numbers have Buffalo’s chance of winning outright at more than 50%.  We definitely have to take the points with the Bills.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331

The Huskers received more off-season hype than any other Big Ten team and we felt they were overvalued entering the season. They showed that last weekend when they struggled at home in a 35-21 win over South Alabama falling well short of their 35 point spread. While that number was much too high, we feel their poor showing last week, along with a deceiving Colorado performance has resulted in a number that is too low here. We have this game power rated to Nebraska -7 so the value, and a full FG, is on the Huskers. They are facing a Colorado team that looks like they destroyed their in-state rival last week. The Buffs beat Colorado State 52-31 however the game was much closer than that. CSU actually outgained Colorado but lost the turnover battle 4-0 which was the difference in the game. The Colorado defense gave up over 500 yards and we expect the Husker offense to have a field day on Saturday. The Nebraska offense was expected to be one of the best in the Big Ten this year. If you throw out their late season game last year vs MSU which was played in snow and very strong winds, this Husker offense averaged 41 PPG over their last 7 games. They topped 400 yards of offense in 8 of their final 9 games with their MSU game being the only outlier. They bring back all-conference caliber QB Martinez and most of his weapons. Last Saturday was a dud offensively. Head coach Scott Frost mentioned after the game it was one of the most anemic offensive efforts he’s ever been a part of. You can bet they’ll play very well on that side of the ball this week coming off that performance and facing a restructured CU defense under new head coach Melvin Tucker. The Nebraska defense had us questioning this team coming into the season however they won the game for the Huskers last week. If they play solid again this Saturday we feel this team will roll as we expect the offense to click. These two met last year and Nebraska had their way with Colorado’s defense rolling up 565 yards. They outgained the Buffs by 170 yards but lost 33-28 when Colorado scored on a 40-yard TD pass with just over 1:00 remaining in the game. Nebraska was the better team last year and they are better this year. We look for Colorado to take a step back this year as they adapt to their new schemes on both sides of the ball. The game is in Boulder we’re hearing that the Nebraska fans will be traveling in droves and it could be close to a 50/50 in the stadium when all is said and done. It all adds up to a convincing Nebraska win on Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203

We think Virginia is a team that will surprise this year. They come into the season a bit underrated in our opinion. The Cavs were 8-5 a year ago including a 28-0 win over South Carolina in the Belk Bowl. Offensively they return one of the top QB’s in the country in Bryce Perkins who threw for 2,700 yards and rushed for almost 1,000 more last season. The only other QB in college football to pass for more than 2,600 and rush for more than 900 last year was Heisman Winner and #1 pick Kyler Murray of Oklahoma. UVA will have a big advantage at QB in this game as Pitt’s Kenny Pickett is inconsistent (58% completion rate) and not nearly the offensive threat that Perkins is. Defensively the Cavs should be one of the best units in the ACC. They return 8 of their top 10 tacklers and they are very good up front on the all-important defensive line where they are very deep. They bring back 6 starters in the front 7 so we expect them to control the trenches vs a very raw Pittsburgh offensive line who has only 37 combined starts (117th nationally). On the other side of the ball the Panthers lost 5 of their 7 players up front including their top returning DE Rashad Weaver who injured his knee in camp a few weeks ago and is out for the season. We think Virginia has a solid edge on both lines of scrimmage which is vitally important. Situationally this is a very solid spot for Virginia. It’s a revenge spot and a fairly significant one. Last season UVA won 6 of their first 8 games and pushed their way into the top 25 for the first time since 2011 heading into week 9 checking in at #23. That week 9 opponent just happened to be the Pitt Panthers. While the Cavs were celebrating their top 25 ranking, Pitt came into Charlottesville as a 7-point dog and walked away with a 23-13 win making the Cavaliers long awaited move into the rankings a one week affair as they dropped out for good. Virginia has had this game in their sights since that embarrassing effort. Bronco Mendenhall is a very solid coach and he had the Cavs getting better each year. They went from 2-10 to 6-7 to 8-5 in their 3 years under Mendenhall. He now has his best team yet and they’ll take advantage of a rebuilding Pitt squad. We think UVA is better on both sides of the ball here. Virginia is the play. Lay the small points here as we fully expect a rout (and cover) from the road team Cavaliers in this early evening match-up Saturday.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Washington Nationals (-1.5 runs) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7:05 PM ET

The Nationals are a huge favorite on the money line in this one but we can get them in the -135 price range by laying the 1.5 runs on the run line. The fact is that Washington is catching Miami at the perfect time for a blowout win. While the Nationals were off last night, the Marlins were doing battle with the Reds in south Florida and ended up with a rare win in a game that went 12 innings. Not only did Miami play late into the night yesterday, they then had to travel to DC for this game. While the Nationals are well-rested the travel-weary Marlins are going to try and do something they haven't done all month - win back to back games. The fact is that Miami is just 7-20 in the month of August and they are 0-6 after each of their first 6 wins this month. 5 of those 6 defeats came by 2 or more runs and that is not a big surprise considering 17 of the Marlins last 21 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Miami starts Elieser Hernandez in this one. He has been solid at home this season but has gone 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA in his 7 road games (5 starts) this season. The Nationals start former Marlin Anibal Sanchez in this one. The right-hander is coming off a superb outing versus the Cubs. Also, Sanchez has a 3.09 ERA in his 6 career starts against his former team and he absolutely dominated them in the most recent outing on July 4th. This season began with a tough April for Sanchez but he never looked back after getting hot in May and has a 3.12 ERA since May 1st. The better pitcher, the much better team, and very fair line value here all add up for what should be a dominating home win at a good price. The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 games and 14 of those 16 victories came by a margin of 2 or more runs. We'll lay the very fair price here with Washington on the run line in this one. Bet the Nationals -1.5 runs in early evening action Friday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5 runs) over New York Yankees, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET

The Yankees Domingo German has struggled in the 2nd half of this season. Since the all-star break the right-hander has a 4.96 ERA. On the full season, German has been a different pitcher on the road compared to at home. He has a 5.82 ERA in away games this season! The above correlates with a big edge for the home team in this match-up considering Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for Los Angeles. The Dodgers southpaw is a dominating 19-4 with a 2.21 ERA in 37 inter-league appearances in his career. Kershaw is also 9-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his 13 starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Of course the above factors point to why the Dodgers opened up as a big money line favorite in this game. Where we see the value in this match-up is with utilizing the run as LA is available in the +115 range by laying 1.5 runs with the run line. The Dodgers 86 wins this season have featured 62 victories by a multiple-run margin. 33 of the Yankees 47 losses this season have come by a multiple-run margin. Prior to yesterday's 1-run loss, 12 of New York's last 13 defeats came by 2+ runs. The Dodgers last 3 wins have all come by a single run but one can consider that an aberration. Prior to this stretch, 20 of the last 23 Dodger victories came by 2 or more or runs. Look for a dominating home win with Kershaw over German in this one. Bet the Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Sunday

#271 ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston Texans (pick-em) over Dallas Cowboys, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET

We have been thoroughly unimpressed with Dallas this pre-season.  They are without 2 of their top offensive weapons (RB Elliot and WR Cooper) and they have scored just 23 total points in 2 games this preseason.  The Boys were beaten by San Francisco in their opener and then struggled to top the LA Rams last week, a team that is playing NONE of their key players this preseason.  Dallas was outgained in both of those games.  While the 3rd preseason game is normally a dress rehearsal so to speak for the regular season, the Cowboys will be without 5 players who were All Pros last season.  Head coach Jason Garrett also showed last year that he doesn’t necessarily view this game as one to get his starters ready for the regular season as he sat many of his key players in their 27-3 loss to Arizona in week 3 of the preseason.  Garrett has also proven he has very little interest in the preseason with a 13-22 lifetime record including just 6-16 since 2014.  Unlike Dallas, we have been impressed with Houston.  Their offense is clicking scoring 56 points in their 2 games topping 400 yards in both.  Dallas has yet to get to 300 yards in either of their 2 games.  It looks like Houston will take this game much more seriously and we expect their regulars to get solid time in this game.  That includes QB Deshaun Watson who has only thrown 7 passes this preseason.  Head coach Bill O’Brien wants to get him ready for the opener in a few weeks.  The Texans also have a strong rotation behind Watson as Joe Webb has already thrown for almost 500 yards in the first 2 preseason games.  Unlike Garrett, Houston head man O’Brien seems to put more emphasis on the preseason as he has a 13-8 record.  The Texans are viewed as the little guy in this state behind the Cowboys giving their players and coaches a little extra motivation even if it is just the preseason.  The Texans will want to win this game.  We’ll side with Houston on Saturday night. 

ASA 10* NFLX PLAY ON Detroit +1.5 over Buffalo, Friday at 8 PM ET

Lots of people jumping on 2-0 Buffalo over 0-2 Detroit here.  In fact, as of this writing well over 70% of the wagers have come in on Buffalo.  We’ll go contrarian here and take Detroit to win their first pre-season game.  The Lions are 0-2 but faced 2 of the better teams in the NFL in New England and Houston.  Their defense has allowed 61 points in those 2 games, however both of their opponents were top 12 in scoring offense last year.  Now they face a Buffalo offense that averaged only 16.8 PPG last year ranking them 30th in the NFL.  After struggling the first 2 games we look for Detroit’s defense to play much better at home on Friday.  Offensively the Lions looked MUCH better last week.  They threw up a stinker in week 1 scoring only 3 points vs the Patriots.  Last week @ Houston, the Lions put up 23 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play which was better than the 5.7 YPP put up by the Texans.  Back up QB David Fales played very well going 12 of 19 for 226 yards and 2 TD’s.  This week we expect starting QB Matthew Stafford to get his first action of the pre-season.  While head coach Matt Patricia has not stated that Stafford will play, we can take a look at last year when Patricia had him playing into the 3rd quarter in Detroit’s pre-season week 3 win over Tampa Bay.  While most NFL head coaches treat this as a trial run for the regular season, Patricia goes even further as the week leading up to this game is laid out exactly as it would be for a regular season games.  That includes film study of upcoming opponent.  Buffalo is 2-0 but they have yet to face a starting QB as Indy was without Luck and last week Carolina was without Cam Newton.  The Bills are on the road for the 2nd straight week and we have a feeling this has now become a very big game for Patricia and the Lions after starting 0-2.  This line opened with Detroit -2.5 which is where our projected line was as well but it now has moved to +1 because most are on Buffalo as we stated above.  We like the value and the situation here.  Take Detroit.

ASA play on: New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Minnesota Vikings, Friday 8PM ET – The handle on this game is certainly backing the Vikings as more tickets and money have flowed in on Minnesota. But we are contrarian here and will side with the home team Saints. In our opinion the biggest factor that favors the Saints is the quarterback rotation as former Vike Teddy Bridgewater will play a large portion of this game and then be followed by Taysom Hill. Bridgewater is a former starter and pro bowl players and should have plenty of success against the Vikings #2’s. Hill has some great preseason statistics and we won’t see a drastic drop-off when he enters the game. The same can’t be said for the Vikings who lack QB depth at this time and will give Sean Mannion, Kyle Sloter and Jake Browning the opportunity to win the back up job. The Viking struggled with their O-line a year ago and have made some changes up front which will take time to mesh as a unit. Minnesota was 18th in offensive efficiency a year ago and won’t be ready until the opener. The same can’t be said about the Saints offense that is deep and coming off a season where they ranked 4th overall in OEFF. Overall the Vikings were a better defensive unit than the Saints a year ago, but the separation isn’t drastic as Minnesota ranked 4th in DEFF, the Saints were 11th. Minnesota has some solid exhibition records under Zimmer but the offensive edge for the Saints later in this game is too much to overlook. Fade the public and bet New Orleans.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5 runs) over Chicago White Sox, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET

The White Sox entered this series having lost 4 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. All 8 of those losses came by two or more runs which is why we're taking advantage of the Phillies run line -1.5 runs being available in the -130 range for this one. Philadelphia has a huge pitching edge in this one as Aaron Nola will be facing Chicago's Ross Detwiler.. The Phillies Nola has been charged with only 1 loss in his past 8 starts and he has compiled a 1.99 ERA along the way in those 8 outings. Detwiler has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum. Not only has he struggled this season, particularly on the road, the White Sox lefty has struggled ever since the 2015 season. His ERA from 2015 through 2019 is a 6.57 ERA. Detwiler will be facing a Phillies team that entered this series having won 8 of its past 12 games. Philadelphia's last 4 wins came by a combined margin of 19 runs and all 4 games were decided by 2 or more runs. Detwiler is no match for Nola and the slumping White Sox simply can't match the Phillies bats here. The Phillies have averaged scoring 6.2 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding this series. Chicago has averaged scoring only 1.8 runs per game in the 9-game stretch that has seen them go 1-8. Given all of the above factors, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is calling for a dominating home win here. Bet the Phillies -1.5 runs in evening action Saturday

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Run Line: Houston (-1.5 runs) over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET

While we certainly would never advise laying a -265 price range on the money line on any team no matter the situation, we see great value in a spot like this to utilize the run line. Houston, at -1.5 runs, is available in the -130 price range. That said, there is plenty of reason to believe that an Astros win this evening is very likely to come by a margin of 2 or more runs. Pittsburgh enters today's game with a 36-40 record on the season. 29 of the Pirates 40 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Also note that the average margin of victory in Houston's last 8 wins is 4.6 runs per game. As for the Astros, they enter tonight's game with a 49-30 record this season. 35 of the Astros last 43 wins have come by a victory margin of 2 or more runs. Taking a look at the pitching match-up here, the Pirates recently welcomed back Trevor Williams to the rotation and it was ugly to say the least. He allowed 7 earned runs in only 5 innings of work and that was against a bad Tigers team. The Astros start Gerrit Cole here and the red hot right-hander has been dominating. In his last 5 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs on just 20 hits in 31 innings while striking out 48 batters. Houston is 8-2 in Cole's last 10 starts. Not surprising given all of the above factors, our computer math model is forecasting an Astros win by a margin of 3 to 4 runs this evening! The Astros are coming off a tough road trip but they are a different team when they are at home. Houston is 27-11 this season when at home and the Astros are 20-9 this season in games against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, the Pirates are a very poor 14-32 this season when facing a team that is playing .500 ball or better on the season. The Astros certainly fit that category and they get a big start from Cole here and roll over Williams and the Pirates in this one. Bet Houston -1.5 runs in evening action Tuesday

ASA play on: Golden State -4.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET Friday, Game 4 – There are some key stats that support this wager but in laymen terms it boils down to a great team off a home loss as a favorite. The Warriors were 24-7 SU off a loss this season, 12-2 SU at home off a loss and the last six wins in a row at home off a beat are by an average of 15PPG. More specifically, when Golden State is off a home loss, they are 5-1 SU with wins by 7, 17, 14, 28 and 6 points respectively. The Warriors are 36-7 SU at home the past 3+ years in the playoffs with an average differential of +11.9PPG and only once in that time have, they lost back to back home games. Toronto shot the shit out of it in Game 3 with an effective field goal percentage of 62.8% which is basically unheard of. That is clearly abnormal too as the Warriors EFG % defense was 6th best in the NBA this season at 51%. Granted the Warriors 3-point defense was atrocious in Game 3 and a lot of that has to do with the absence of Klay Thompson and KD. Thompson will be back tonight which should make a difference in how the Warriors defend the Raptors beyond the arc tonight. The Raptors literally had everything go right in Game 3 and we just don’t see that happening in Oakland with the Warriors in a do-or-die situation. As we mentioned, defending the 3-point line will be key and we don’t see Danny Green and Kyle Lowry going 11 for 19 from downtown tonight. Steph Curry is certainly capable of a repeat performance of Game 3, but we must bet the rest of the Warriors play much better than they did in G3. The betting markets are backing Toronto tonight, yet the line is not fluctuating the way the money is flowing. That’s a clear sign to bet on Golden State tonight.

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET Wednesday – The number on this game is extremely short and typically we wouldn’t like going against the Warriors at home with this low of a line, but we’ll make an exception here. This isn’t the same Warriors team as injuries has taken its toll and there are just too many to overcome or justify betting them here. In Game 2 the Warriors got a HUGE boost with Boogie back on the floor as the logged 27 minutes, grabbed 10 rebounds and added 6 big assists and scored 11-points. But now the Raptors will have a plan in place to counter his presence and take advantage of a hobbled Klay Thompson if he’s able to suit up. The other big loss that’s not being talked about is Kevon Looney who has been a big energy guy and defensive stopper for Golden State. Even with Thompson scoring 25 in the last game before being hurt and shooting 46.3% as a team the Warriors managed just a 5-point road win in Game 2. Toronto had a horrendous shooting night in Game 2 (37.2%) so even if they have a less than stellar performance tonight, they can still cover this number. Toronto already has 4 playoff road wins this post season and that includes wins in Philadelphia and Milwaukee which are as tough a venue as you find. During the regular season this Raptors team had a +4.6 point road differential which was 3rd best in the league. Golden State wasn’t their usual dominate selves at home this year with the 11th best home differential of +6.6PPG (down from +7.6PPG last year, +15.9PPG the year before). The Raptors lost just 9 road games by more than 5-points this season which correlates to their 3rd rated offensive efficiency rating on the road and 4th best DEFF rankings. In closing, even if Klay can play tonight, just how effective can he be on one leg? That’s asking too much of Steph Curry and the rest of the team to overcome. This will be close throughout so we grab the points!

ASA play on: Golden State +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8M ET – We are betting the more experienced, defending Champions, off a loss here. Toronto again got a huge game from Siakam in Game 1 but don’t count on a repeat performance here as he consistently hasn’t done that all season long. Leonard was again fantastic for the Raptors but he clearly was laboring throughout the game. The high or energy from the Game 1 win won’t be as pronounced for Toronto in Game 2 as they have a win under their belt. The Raptors are 41-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State is 33-17 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. The probability numbers we’ve run on this game tell us overwhelmingly to bet the underdog off a loss and the heavy factor against the Raptors is winning 6 straight games against the 2 other best teams in the NBA. Golden State was 23-7 SU off a loss this season, 72-19 SU or 79% since 2015. This Warriors team is a remarkable 44-11 SU their last 55 playoff games and we’re betting they bounce back here with a win in the North.

ASA play on: Golden State +1.5 over Toronto Raptors, 9PM ET – Thursday Game 1 – The most recent memory in bettors minds right now is the Raptors beating the Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals and they have bet accordingly. Give credit to the Raptors in that series win and their defense which was the difference. The Bucks literally didn’t make any adjustments in the last four games and tried to stay with their offensive philosophy which allowed the Raptors to essentially play zone defense. That won’t be a luxury against this Warriors team as they have way too many shooters to space the floor. Toronto could play off several Bucks in the last series but can’t here. The Warriors have had extra rest coming into this game and really didn’t miss a beat when Durant went down with his calf injury. In fact, they adapted and morphed into the team they were without him. Draymond Green has been a beast with Durant sidelined and provides another match up nightmare for Toronto. The Raptors were 40-11 SU at home this season with a +8.5 point differential. Golden State was 33-16 SU on the road this year with a +6.6 average point differential. Those numbers are some of the best in the league. This comes down to an experienced team that has “been here, done that” before against a team that has zero lottery players on their roster and almost none of them have played on this big of a stage before. Not to mention the veteran team and defending champion is an underdog. Before we go, we want to leave you with this. Is it more impressive that Kawhi Leonard was able to drag this team and roster to the Finals than the team LeBron took to the Finals with Love and Irving? Yeah, Leonard has been outstanding but even he can’t carry this team past the Champs. Play on Golden State in Game 1.

Milwaukee Bucks +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Saturday, Game 6 – The Raptors have had role players step up in big moments this series, but now that the spotlight and expectations are clearly high in this elimination game, we don’t expect the same production. Kawhi Leonard has been ridiculous in this series and I would argue has done more with less than LeBron and the Cavaliers a few years ago when they won their Ship. There is a reason the Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer has been mentioned as a potential coach of the year and he’ll adjust here. If Giannis is on the floor then Bledsoe can’t be. The Bucks need to surround Giannis with shooters so the Raptors can’t collapse on him. If both Bledsoe and Giannis are on the floor, then Giannis needs to move to the baseline where he can roam behind the D. The Bucks are 10-4 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +9.8PPG. The Bucks are 62-21 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-17 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Bucks road differential of +5.6PPG was second best in the NBA this season behind only the Golden State Warriors. Milwaukee had the 4th best road offensive efficiency at 1.123PPG and defensive efficiency allowing just 1.068PPP which was best in the league. We won’t ignore the Bucks 22-3 SU record off a loss, 10-2 SU on the road. The clincher for us though with this wager is value. The Bucks were favored by 3-points in the last game on this floor and are now a dog of 2 or more points. That is an over-reaction by the betting public and it’s always best to bet value over “feelings”. This series gets extended to a game 7.

ASA  play on: Milwaukee Bucks -7 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Thursday, Game 5 – The Raptors sent a message in the last two games to remind everyone they had the 2nd best record in the NBA this season for a reason. But now that the venue changes and the teams head back to Wisconsin, we can expect Milwaukee to get a resounding win on their home court. Milwaukee had the second-best home record in the NBA during the regular season with a 33-8 SU record and an average differential of plus +12.1PPG. The Bucks are 10-3 SU in the post season with an overall average differential if +11.1PPG which balloons to +14.7PPG at home. The Bucks are one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% and shoot 35% from beyond the arc and will find their groove again back at the Fiserv Forum. In Game 4 of this series the Raptors got HUGE production out of their bench and role players but that certainly won’t carry over on the road. Clearly the Raptors rely heavily on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue, along with a nagging knee/quad is becoming a huge factor for the Super Star as the playoffs wear on. The Bucks are 62-20 SU as a favorite this season with a 37-16 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 70 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Nobody said this series was going to be an easy one for the Bucks and winning in Toronto is certainly a tough task, but back at home the Bucks get a much-needed win by a double-digit margin.

ASA 10* NBA PLAY ON Milwaukee -3 over Toronto, Tuesday at 8:30 PM ET

We’ve clearly lost value on this game with the Bucks going from an underdog in Game 3 to a favorite in tonight’s game. The Bucks starters were HORRENDOUS in Game 3, yet still could have won in double over-time. How bad were Milwaukee’s starters you ask? Middleton, Bledsoe, Antetokounmpo and Mirotic were a combined 14 of 59 from the field or 24% from the field. Those four also combined to make just 3 of 22 3-pointers. The Raptors benefitted from a non-call on a Kawhi Leonard double-dribble that led to an uncontested dunk at a critical juncture. Giannis was also called for his 6th foul on a questionable call which forced the Bucks superstar to the bench. Milwaukee has a near perfect record this season when coming off a loss with a 22-1 SU record. That’s not a coincidence either as a good coaching staff clearly knows how to adjust from one game to the next. And those wins have come by an average differential +15.4PPG. The Bucks had the 4th best road offensive efficiency rating on the road this season of 1.123PPP and a defensive efficiency of 1.068PPP which was 1st. Milwaukee’s +5.6 average point differential away from home was second best in the NBA this season. The Bucks bounce back in a big way with a double-digit win!

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +3 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 4 Monday – You know us, we are betting numbers and value, not teams. The play here is Portland at home. Teams down 0-3 in the past have not done well historically but the oddsmakers have factored that in and the over-adjustment is too great to pass up. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-12 SU record, 14-5 their last nineteen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). In Game 2 the Blazers shot much better at 44.2% overall, 46.2% from the 3-point line. In Game 3 the Blazers made just 40% of their field goal attempts, 31.4% from beyond the arc. Portland has the 8th best overall and 3-point shooting percentage at home this season.The Warriors are 3rd in overall shooting percentage defense but 13th in defending the 3-point line. Damian Lillard has had a tough series, but we expect him to bounce back here after a dismal -23 differential in the last game. Portland was 32-9 SU at home in the regular season with the 3rd best average point differential of +8.4PPG. Portland was a home underdog just five times this season and they won four of those games outright. The movement of the line has us on Portland in this game.

ASA 10* play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Friday, Game 2 –

The results of Game 1 and the statistics therein have us betting the Bucks again in Game 2. Milwaukee is one of the best shooting teams in the NBA at 47.4% but in Game 1, on their home court, the Bucks managed just 39.8% as a team. From beyond the 3-point line they shot just 25% as a team which is drastically lower than their regular season average of 35%. We predict a return to norm in Game 2 and expect the Bucks to have a much better shooting night. As we said in our analysis of Game 1, the Raptors rely too much on Kawhi Leonard and fatigue became apparent late in the game. If history holds true, Kyle Lowry won’t have the night he did in Game 1 as he hit 10 of 15 FG attempts which is abnormal by his previous standards. Lowry was dreadful in three outings against the Bucks in the regular season as he averaged 6.3 points on 7-of-30 shooting from the field (1-of-20 from three) to go along with 8.3 assists and 5 rebounds.  The fact that Lowry failed to score a single point on 11 tries from the field in the 122 possessions he went up against Bledsoe in all three losses the Raptors had against the Bucks this year. Milwaukee will make the adjustment here and have Bledsoe on Lowry which will again put more pressure on Leonard. The Bucks have several players that can step up and fill the void if one of the stars isn’t hitting as was the case in Game 1 with Brook Lopez. The Bucks are 61-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 36-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 69 wins have come by double-digits. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee has now beaten this Raptors four of five this season and rolls to a Game 2 win by double-digits.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +7 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET – Game 2 Thursday – After breaking down Game 1 of this series we like the Blazers chances to cover the spread in Game 2. First off, Terry Stotts is a good coach and will adjust in guarding Steph Curry in the pick-n-roll where he had the most success in the opener. Secondly, the Blazers were coming off a huge 7-game series in Denver and fatigue was clearly a factor. Now they have had a little more rest and are off an embarrassing showing in Game 1 so expect a much better effort here. The Warriors did lose two home games in the opening round to the Clippers and their average home differential is just +4.5PPG in the post-season. In the opener the Warriors were up only 6-points going into the fourth quarter before the Blazers collapse. Portland has been very good off a loss this season with a 23-10 SU record, 14-3 their last seventeen in that situation. In Game 1 the Blazers shot just 35% overall from the field (ssn ave was 45%) and made just 25% of their 3-point attempts (shot 35% during the reg ssn). So, expect a return to the more ‘normal’ statistics here which will lead to a Blazers cover. Ask yourself this, with Golden State off a commanding win in the opener by 22-points, why did this line open higher, with the money and tickets coming in on the Warriors, yet the line went down? Portland had the 8th best road differential in the league this year at 0PPG so they are more than capable of keeping this game close throughout.

ASA play on: Milwaukee Bucks -6 over Toronto Raptors, 8:30PM ET Wednesday, Game 1 - The Bucks are 60-19 SU as a favorite this season with a 35-15 SU record versus other playoff teams this season. Let’s not forget just how dominate the Bucks have been this season as 52 of their 68 wins have come by double-digits. Eric Bledsoe is averaging 16PPG in the playoffs on 47.8% shooting, Khris Middleton had a few rough shooting nights in the first two rounds but did average 16PPG in the series against the Celtics. Pat Connaughton and George Hill also provided some invaluable minutes off the bench for the Bucks in the first two rounds. Not to mention the Bucks get starter Malcolm Brogdon back for this series who makes them even deeper yet. Throw in the ‘bigs’ of Lopez, Mirotic and Ilyasova and you have a floor-spacing, 3-ball-makin bunch that are tough to defend. With the floor spaced it only make Giannis that much tougher to defend as he gets to the rim at will or drives and unselfishly kicks to open shooters. Game 7 of the Toronto/Philly series is a perfect example of why the Raptors won’t win this Eastern Conference Finals. You can’t rely solely on Kawhi Leonard to win a series. Leonard made a miraculous shot to win Game 7 against Philadelphia and put up 41 points in the process. It took Kawhi 39 shots to get to 41 and there were several opportunities for other players to take open shots, but they were reluctant to do so. Kyle Lowry is a notorious choker in the post-season, Pascal Siakam is an up-and-comer but still young and in an unfamiliar role. Marc Gasol is an adequate center but past his prime and not a rim protector. The rest of the supporting cast for the Raptors just isn’t good enough to provide Leonard with help to win this series or Game 1. The Milwaukee Bucks had some of the best overall efficiency numbers during the regular season, and are the ONLY team left that have BETTER offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Milwaukee beat this Raptors three of four this regular season and rolls a Game 1 win by double-digits.

ASA 10* play on: Portland Trailblazers +5.5 over @Denver Nuggets,330pm ET – We won’t ignore the fact that the Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but let’s also recognize that Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who shot over 46% during the regular season and made 36.1% of their 3-point attempts. Granted neither team is shooting it well in this series, but I trust Lillard and McCollum way more than I do the Nuggets shooters. Prior to the last two games of this series the previous eight games had an average differential of +5.25PPG and we expect this elimination game to go to the wire again. Grab the points and the underdog.

ASA play on @Philadelphia 76ers +2 over Toronto Raptors, 8PM ET Thursday – We are playing on the ‘juvenile’ 76ers in this must win game at home tonight. It’s obvious the young 76ers still don’t full grasp the situation when Embiid is looking at cell phones on the bench, laughing in press conferences and easily distracted during games in the Playoffs. Ben Simmons isn’t much better, but when focused this team is clearly capable of beating anyone on any given night. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris who are all legitimate scorers in the NBA. Philly has won 75% of their games when coming off a loss and playing at home this season. The home team has won 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams with the average margin of victory by the home team in those seven wins being 18.4PPG. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Take the home dog as Philadelphia will extend this series.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4.5 over Denver Nuggets, 10:30PM ET – This has been a great series and even though everyone has the Rockets or Warriors in the NBA Finals, one of these two teams certainly could represent the West. With the dust settled after the first four games of this series the total differential separating these two teams is just 2 total points. All four games have been tight, and the dog has covered three straight. Even when we go back to the regular season, we find those four games were decided by an average of just 5PPG. Denver has some fantastic home efficiency and overall statistics at home this season, but Portland has some great numbers too. The Blazers were 14th in road defensive efficiency and 7th in offensive efficiency. Portland was 7th in average point differential on the road at 0PPG. Denver has struggled with their shooting in the previous five games as they’ve hit just 42.7% of their field goal attempts. The Blazers are on a solid 4-1 ATS streak when coming off a straight up loss and will keep this game close throughout. Grab the points and the dog here!

ASA play on Philadelphia 76ers -2 over Toronto Raptors, 3:30PM ET Sunday – We are going contrarian here and don’t expect Toronto to bounce back off a loss in the previous game. It’s obvious the Raptors don’t have enough talent surrounding Leonard and in today’s NBA one player can’t get it done. The 76ers have the luxury of several go-to-guys with Embiid, Butler, Simmons and Harris and it’s proving to be too much for Toronto to overcome. The Raptors will also be short Siakam here which makes Leonard’s job that much more difficult. The home team has won 7 of the last nine meetings between these two teams and all seven wins came by more than today’s spread. Toronto had some great efficiency numbers on the road this year and a +4.4PPG differential when away from home but Phillies numbers are better. The Sixers home differential of +8.6PPG is one of the better numbers in the NBA (4th) which coincides with their 31-10 regular season record. Toronto was 18-8 SU off a loss this season but just 6-4 on the road in that situation. A clear indicator that the 76ers are still being under-valued by the oddsmakers is their 6-1 ATS run, 4-1 spread record their last five home games. Philly grabs a commanding 3-1 lead in the series with a home win today!

ASA play on: Houston Rockets -3.5 over Golden State Warriors, 8:30PM ET – Everyone has jumped off the Rockets bandwagon after two losses to start this series but we’re not one of them. We bet Houston to win this series and even though they must win 4 of five against the Warriors to get it done they are still capable of doing so. Houston’s numbers on the season are just as good as Golden State in many key statistical categories. These two teams were both #1 and #2 in offensive efficiency and were #13 and #17 in defensive efficiency so they are very even teams. Houston beat a very good Utah team at home in the opening round by 32 and 20 and have an average point differential of +7.1PPG at home during the regular season. The Rockets were 31-10 SU at home during the regular season and most importantly, 13-4 SU at home when coming off a loss. Let’s not forget this Rockets team took Golden State to 7-games a year ago and are better overall this season. Golden State has some fantastic numbers on the road this season but in this scenario (up 2-0) we can see a letdown by the Champs. The money and line indicators clearly support a bet on Houston in this game.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics -2 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET (Game 3) In Game 1 of this series the Celtics had a fantastic game plan to limit Giannis and force other Bucks to beat them. It worked flawlessly and the Celtics drubbed the Bucks big on their home court. Milwaukee then adjusted, bounced back and crushed the Celtics in Game 2. Kris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe had huge Game 2’s after struggling under the weight of the pressure in Game 1.  Middleton made seven 3-pointers and totaled 28 points while Bledsoe chipped in with 21 points. Boston’s All-Star guard Kyrie Irving had a horrible shooting night in Game 2 with just nine points on 4 of 18 shooting. So, we are betting the numbers flip again in Game 3 on Boston’s home floor with the C’s off a BAD loss. The added pressure of being on the road in this opener will again get to the Bucks role players and the hot shooting they enjoyed in Game 2 won’t be the same here. Milwaukee enjoys some of the best road efficiency numbers in the NBA but again, as we’ve said in the past, they played a very soft schedule which influenced those statistics. Boston had an average differential of +6.9PPG at home while shooting 47% on their home court and allowing just 45%. Boston is 7-2 SU their last nine home games when coming off a loss and have covered 6 of the last seven clashes with the Bucks on this floor. Boston bounces back off a loss and gets a home win in Game 3.

ASA play on: Houston Rockets +5.5 over Golden State Warriors, 10:30PM ET – Tuesday, Game 2 – I made a wager on the Rockets to win this series before it started and in hind-sight wish I would have waited until after Game 1 to get better odds. The Rockets are going to win this series and the landscape of the NBA will be altered because of the results (much like the Avengers Endgame alternate reality). In any regard, the Rockets took Golden State to a 7-game series a year ago and have a better chemistry this year. Golden State has not enjoyed as big of a home court advantage this season as they have in the past which we’ll explain here. Three years ago, the Warriors were 36-5 SU at home with a differential of +15.9PPG during the regular season. Those numbers dipped a year ago to 29-12, +7.6PPG. This season the Warriors were 30-11 SU at home in the regular season but their average point differential was just +6.6PPG. Houston was great on the road this season with the 5th best road differential of +2.4PPG and an offensive efficiency rating of 1.139 points per possession (2nd). Let’s not forget the Warriors lost two home games in the first round to the Clippers who were one of the 4 worst teams in the entire playoffs. Golden State was just 10-17 ATS at home against winning teams this season while the Rockets were 11-10 ATS on the road against winning teams, and many of those games were as a chalk. Houston was a solid 19-11 SU when coming off a loss this season, 15-2 SU their last seventeen in that situation. The Rockets shot just 41.9% in Game 1 which was uncharacteristically low for them so expect a better night from the field here. Despite the poor shooting in Game 1, multiple technical at the end of the game and questionable non-calls, the Rockets still only lost by 4-points. Easy call here with the Rockets and the points.

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET Game 2 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. Then in Game 1 of this series the Celtics put together a fantastic game plan to stop Giannis and force the other Bucks to beat them which simply didn’t happen. Boston took control in the 3rd quarter and never looked back in a 22-point win. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. Milwaukee is nearly perfect this season when coming off a loss with a 21-1 SU record but that was during the regular season AND they can still win this game but asking them to do so by 8 or more is too much to ask. We all doubted the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 11 of their last thirteen games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and it clearly showed in Game 1 which was an easy C’s win. What makes Boston so dangerous is that if their best player, Irving, is off they have so many others that can step up and carry the scoring load. This will be another close game. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers +4 over @Denver Nuggets, 10:30pm ET – Denver is coming off a very tough series with San Antonio and now play just a few days after a dramatic Game 7 win. Portland has had extra rest off their series with OKC and the extra game planning will be a huge factor tonight. During the regular season the Nuggets were favorited by 6-points and 4.5-points at home in the two clashes with the Blazers so you can see for yourself we’ve lost a little value here. But that won’t deter us from playing on Portland as we feel the adjustment is justified. The Nuggets have some of the best efficiency numbers at home along with a +10PPG average differential but Portland was 8th in road differential at 0PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. So clearly the Blazers can play with anyone in the league when away from home, especially if the circumstances are right, which is the case tonight. Despite Denver’s fantastic home numbers they do allow opponents to shoot 44.7% on their home court which can be exploited by a solid shooting team like the Blazers, who just shot over 47% in three of five games against the Thunder and have made over 40% of their 3-point attempts in the playoffs. Portland is 16-5 ATS their last 21 games when playing with 3+ days of rest and we feel that will be a big key tonight. This goes down to the wire, grab the points!

ASA play on: Boston Celtics +7.5 over @ Milwaukee Bucks, Sunday 1PM ET Game 1 – If you had the opportunity to read our NBA analytics article on predicting Champions based on efficiency numbers, you already know the Celtics were one of four teams that can win it all this year. Of course, the Bucks are also one of those four teams too and have the best combined efficiency numbers in the league. But in this scenario, we are backing the dog and grabbing the points with Boston. The Celtics have a top 10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency on the road this year, with the 7th best point differential at +2.1PPG. When these same two teams met on this court in late February the Bucks were a 6-point favorite and barely won by a point, 98-97. The Milwaukee Bucks have the best home point differential in the league at +12.1PPG, rank 2nd in DEFF at home and 6th in OEFF. But we must temper those numbers a little as the Bucks played in a weak Central Division and own the 17th easiest schedule in the NBA. We all started doubting the Celtics this season, but they seem to have figured out their rotations and have come together at the end of the season with wins in 10 of their last twelve games. The Celtics may be the only team in the East that can match the Bucks depth and we like their chances to keep this contest close throughout. Grab the points!

ASA play on: @Toronto Raptors -6 over Philadelphia 76ers, Saturday 7:30PM ET – Game 1 – Both teams come into this contest with similar recent results. Each team lost the opener of the series in round 1 then won 4 straight games to close out the series. The Raptors enjoy a solid home court advantage in this game as they finished the regular season with a 32-9 SU record and a +7.5-point per game differential which was 7th best in the NBA. Toronto was top 9 in the league at home in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and of their 32 home wins, 25 came by 6 or more points. Both Raptors wins at home over Philadelphia were by 11 and 17-points respectively. Conversely, the 76ers had disappointing numbers on the road this season with a negative differential of -2.7PPG which was in the bottom half of the league. Philly was 16th in OEFF ratings on the road and 17th in DEFF. The Sixers weren’t great as underdogs in this price range either this year with a 3-9 ATS record when getting 5 or more points this season. Let’s not forget, this isn’t the same Toronto team that was poorly coached in the post season and choked in the past. The veteran leadership of Leonard and Gasol has had a big impact on the rest of the roster and made this team a legitimate contender in the East. In our opinion, Philly is not in the conversation because of their home/road dichotomies. Play on the Raptors at home in Game 1.

ASA play on: San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, 8PM ET Thursday – The Nuggets have rebounded in this series to take a 3-2 lead but it’s not over yet according to our math model. The Spurs have won 14 of the last fifteen meetings against the Nuggets on their home floor and with their backs against the wall they’ll find a way to win this game tonight. In Game 3 the Spurs were favored by -4.5 points and now the line has fluctuated down to minus -3 as of this writing. We are going against the Nuggets here for the same reason we’ve faded the Spurs a couple games in this series and that’s home/road dichotomies. Denver has a negative road differential of -2.6PPG this season which is 4th worst of all the playoff teams. They are outside the top half of the league in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency on the road this season compared to top 5in both at home. San Antonio had the 10th best home differential in the league at +6.8PPG and were top 9 in both OEFF and DEFF on their home court. A big reason why the Spurs have a solid point differential at home is their 3-point shooting in their building which is best in the NBA at 41.6%. The Nuggets are slightly better than league average in defending the 3-point line when away from home. San Antonio has been extremely good off a loss and playing at home with a 12-3 SU record this season. This series gets extended with a Spurs win by 7 or more.

ASA play on: Utah Jazz +8.5 over Houston Rockets, Wednesday 8PM ET – Game 5 - The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and money siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after three straight Rockets wins to start this series. The 3-1 Houston lead in this series has led to tremendous value with the Jazz here in Game 5. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranked 18th in DEFF on the season. Of all the playoff teams, only the Spurs and Clippers were worse. Utah on the other hand had the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA this season and it showed in Game 3 and 4. In Game 3, even though they lost, the Jazz held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting and 104 points. In Game 4, the Jazz limited the Rockets to just 35.4% from the field and 91 points. Both those numbers are drastically lower than their season average of 44.8% and 111.1PPG. The Utah Jazz have been plus 8 or more points just two times this entire season which tells us exactly how good they are. We know how well the favorites are doing in the post season but the value on this game is just too good to overlook the dog. Play on the Utah Jazz plus the points.  

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9:30PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this regular season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 12 of fourteen in this series with the favorite covering 12 of the last eighteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 5, with a chance to take back the advantage in the series. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver found their shooting touch in Game 2 at home and Game 4 in San Antonio. Popp had a great game plan in Game 1 and stole a win on this court. The Nuggets have adjusted and get this crucial home win tonight by double digits.  

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -2.5 over Houston Rockets, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Game 3 -  The money is clearly on the Rockets in this game with the vast majority of tickets and cash siding with the Rockets. But based on the volume of wagering the line hasn’t moved as it should. That’s a clear indicator that smart money is on the Utah Jazz. The Utah Jazz finished the regular season on a blistering 30-11 SU run but public bettors have forgotten that after two beat-downs in Games 1 & 2 of this series which has led to tremendous value with the Jazz. These two teams met on this floor in early February with the Jazz favored by -7-points and now they are laying several points less than that. Utah has also won 22 of their last 26 home contests and have the 5th best overall home point differential in the NBA at +7.9PPG. They were 14th in offensive efficiency ratings at home and 3rd in DEFF. Houston is one of three teams in the NBA right now that we feel can win it all this season (Milwaukee and Golden State) but this is clearly a ‘play against’ situation. Houston was 22-19 SU on the road in the regular season with a positive road differential of +2.4PPG. The Rockets potential undoing this post season will be there defense which ranks 15th in DEFF on the road this season. Houston was just 17-23-1 ATS on the road this year, 9-11 ATS against other playoff teams when on the road. Utah is on a 13-6 SU run at home against other playoff teams and ALL thirteen of those wins came by more than today’s spread! That means when they win this game, they also cover the short number. In a must win situation, at home, the Jazz get a big win!

ASA play on San Antonio Spurs -3 over Denver Nuggets, Thurs 9PM ET – The Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets in 6 of the eight quarters of this series and if it weren’t for a HUGE 4th quarter in Game #2 this series would be 2-0 Spurs instead of 1-1. We went against San Antonio in the first two games with one main reason backing our analytics and that is the difference in home/road dichotomies for the Spurs. San Antonio has really poor road numbers but also have some really good home statistics. SA was 32-9 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +6.8PPG which was 10th best in the NBA. The Spurs had the 7th best home efficiency numbers and the 9th best defensive efficiency numbers on their home court. At the end of the regular season when Popp was resting players and adjusting his rotations the Spurs went 0-5 ATS and that has influenced the betting number on this game. If we eliminate that 0-5 ATS run the Spurs were 24-12 ATS at home on the season. Denver has not been a profitable road spread team this season with the 3rd worst ATS record in the NBA at 17-24 and just 10-11 as a road dog. Those are not statistics you would expect of a 2 seed in the West. The Nuggets regular season road differential of -2.6PPG is one of the worst differentials of all the playoff teams (only Philly, Spurs and Pistons are worse). Denver is 17th in offensive efficiency on the road this season, 16th in defensive efficiency. The chalk has covered 11 of the last sixteen and we like the Spurs here to win by 8. Lay it.

ASA play on: Indiana Pacers +7.5 over Boston Celtics, 7PM ET – The Pacers had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #1. They were awful from beyond the arc, from the stripe and everywhere else on the floor. The Pacers scored just 8-points in the entire 3rd quarter when they went 2 of 19 from the field. That was an aberration as the Pacers are the 6th best shooting team in the NBA. Indiana had the 10th best road differential in the NBA this season at minus -1PPG and were 19-22 SU away from home this season. The Pacers were 12-5 SU this season when coming off a double-digit loss so expect a bounce back here. Boston underachieved all season long but played well in Game #1. But are you betting on the Celtics team you saw play all year long or the one that showed up in the opener? Boston was 28-13 SU at home in the regular season with a point differential of +6.8PPG. The C’s have just one spread win on their home court in their last nine home games and the betting numbers suggest the public is betting based on perception instead of reality. Going back to early January the Celtics have just 7 home wins by 8 or more points. These two teams are closer than the line suggests. Grab the points.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -6.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday 9PM ET –  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG during the regular season. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG during the regular season. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10  of eleven in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fifteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in Game 2, off a loss, in a MUST WIN situation. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. Denver had a horrendous shooting night in Game 1 from beyond the arc and from the free throw line so expect a return to average tonight which leads to a double digit win.  

Play on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The underdogs cashed in on Saturday with the lone exception being Golden State’s blowout win over the Clippers. This game is eerily like that one and we expect a blowout by the Bucks. There are essentially 4 teams that have a legitimate shot to win it all this year and the Bucks are one of the favorites. The same can’t be said about the Pistons who rate the worst team in the post season. The second worse according to our numbers is the Clippers. Did you know the Bucks were favored in 72 games this year, second only to the Golden State Warriors (75), of which the Bucks won 54 straight up. In their 60 wins this season, 45 were by double-digits! Milwaukee was 27-14 SU against all other playoff teams this season and two of those losses were in the last few games when they had solidified the best record in the NBA. They have the best average point differential in the league at +8.9PPG and the best home court differential at +12.1PPG. Detroit was 15-26 SU away this year with the 17th worst average differential of minus -3.1PPG.  The Bucks beat this Pistons team four times this season with the two home wins coming by 23-points each. The home crowd will be electric today for Milwaukee and the lead will be too big for a back door cover late.

ASA play on: Denver Nuggets -5.5 over San Antonio Spurs, Saturday 10:30PM ET – Let’s make sure we are clear on this. The 2019 Spurs are not the Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker version.  San Antonio was just 16-25 SU away from home this season with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. That was the 19th worst road point differential in the league and the largest margin of any team left in the playoffs. Now they face a Denver team that was 34-7 SU at home with the second-best average point differential of +10.6PPG. In fact, of the Nuggets 34 home wins this season all but nine were by more than today’s spread. The home team has won 10 straight in this series with the favorite covering 10 of the last fourteen meetings. San Antonio allows foes to shoot nearly 48% when they are the visiting team and gave up an average of 114PPG when on the road. That’s not a good recipe against a Nuggets team that shoots 48.5% at home and averages 114.1PPG. The Spurs home/road dichotomies is drastic and because of their recent poor play the Nuggets find themselves a very low favorite in this opener. Denver was recently favored by -4.5 points at home over the Spurs and beat them 113-85. San Antonio had one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the NBA when away from home while Denver was 6th at home in DEFF, 2nd in OEFF. This game will be blowout by the time the 4th quarter starts.

ASA play on: Portland Trailblazers -8 over Sacramento Kings, 10:30PM ET – We’ve won a lot of money this year playing on or against the Kings and will finish off the regular season with a wager against them tonight. Portland has a lot to play for tonight and the Kings do not. With a win the Blazers have a chance to secure the 3rd seed in the West. That would mean home court in the first round and avoiding a red-hot Utah Jazz team. The Blazers have won 7 straight at home and those wins have come by an average of 8PPG. Portland has the 3rd best overall home differential in the league this year at +8.5PPG and are the 2nd most efficient offensively at home. Sacramento has played especially well at home this season but not as well on the road. The Kings road point differential is a negative 3.7PPG which is 19th worse in the league. Portland will take advantage of a Sacramento D that is 21st in the NBA in road defensive efficiency allowing 1.128 points per possession. The Kings are just 2-7 SU their last nine on the road and have yet to face the Blazers in Portland this season. Typically, we would be concerned about lost line value here but look at the Kings three most recent road games against similar teams to the Blazers. At Utah the Kings were +10, at Spurs +10.5 and at Houston +10 so the line here is not out of whack. Portland was double-digit home favorites over the Grizzlies, Mavs and Suns recently who are worse than the Kings, but not by a whole lot. Easy call here with Portland at home minus the points!

ASA play on: @Utah Jazz -2.5 over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET – The Jazz are a dangerous team right not and not someone I’d want to face in the playoffs. Utah has won 7 of their last eight games, with the lone loss a disappointing showing against the Lakers.  The Jazz have won 12 of their last fourteen home games, including 7 straight. Of their last seven home wins all but one has come by 9 or more points. On the season the Jazz have one of the best overall home point differentials in the NBA at +7.8PPG. For being one of the best teams in the league this year the Nuggets haven’t been great on the road. Denver has a negative point differential of -2.4PPG on the road this year with a 20-20 SU record. If we dig deeper, we find that the Nuggets are just 2-13 SU on the road their last 15 when facing a current playoff team. In other words, they don’t beat the leagues better teams when playing on the road. Utah has beaten the Nuggets on this court 5 straight times and all five have come by 6 or more points. Easy call with the Jazz tonight. 

ASA play on: @Boston Celtics -4.5 over Orlando Magic, 7:30PM ET – Both teams have plenty to play for here as the Magic need a win to clinch a playoff spot in the East, while Boston is fighting for the 4th seed and home court in the first round. The Celtics look like they flipped the switch here recently and are rounding into the team everyone thought they’d be all season long. Reports are that head coach Stevens and Kyrie Irving are on the same page right now and it’s starting to show in the teams play. Boston has won three straight all against desperate teams like Orlando with wins over Miami (twice) and Indiana. Let’s look at today’s number and talk about value. The Celtics were just a 7-point favorite at home over Miami and Indiana at home. The C’s were favored by 1-point in Indiana who is the current 5th seed. Now they are laying this short number at home against the Magic. The reason the number is what it is, is because the Magic are playing well and desperate too. But are they playing well or is it the competition? Orlando is 9-2 SU their last eleven games but look at six of those W’s: Cleveland, Atlanta (twice), New Orleans, Memphis and New York who are some of the worst teams in the league.  Their only good win in that stretch of games came at home against Philly. They also recently lost at Toronto by 12-points who are like the Celtics. The last time these two teams met was in Orlando and the Celtics were favored by 7-points. Now they’re laying less than that at home. Orlando is 15-24 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -1.7PPG. Boston has the 8th best home point differential in the league at +7.2PPG. The C’s are a team that can win it all this year, the Magic are not. Lay the points!

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Michigan State -2.5 over Texas Tech, Saturday at 8:50 PM ET

We feel we’re getting some line value here with the Spartans.  Tech has become a very popular underdog with their run through this tourney and deservedly so.  However, Tech was just +5 on a neutral court vs Gonzaga (we were on Texas Tech) and now they are +2.5 vs Michigan State.  We have the Zags and Sparty rated dead even so in our mind we’re getting an extra 2.5 points here.  If these teams would have met on a neutral court at the end of the season or at the start of this tourney, we would expect MSU to be a 5 or so point favorite.  So you can see why we feel the value in the number is on the Spartans.  Much has been made of Tech’s defense which is obviously excellent (ranked 1st in adjusted defensive efficiency).  However, MSU is nearly every bit as good ranking 9th nationally in defensive efficiency.  The Spartans have held every team in this tourney to 67 points or fewer including LSU and Duke.  We don’t feel there is much of a gap between these two defense.  We do give MSU a decent edge offensively.  They rank 5th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency while Tech ranks 28th in that category and just 52nd in eFG%.  The Raiders played a similar offense in regards to efficiency when they faced Gonzaga.  The Zags were held to 69 in that game but we felt they actually played fairly well offensively for the most part.  They made over 54% of their shots inside the arc but simply struggled from 3-point range making only 26%.  Many of those were open 3’s that were simply missed.  We expect MSU to shoot better in this game.  Sparty should also have a solid edge on the boards here.  They are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation and Texas Tech has actually been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney games.  We think that comes back to bite them here giving MSU a number of extra offensive opportunities.  While Elite 8 underdogs have done very well over the years, that situation flips once we in the Final 4 and National Championship game.  The favorite in Final 4 & NC games are 25-16-1 ATS since 2005.  While Izzo has brought his team to the Final 4 a whopping 9 times, this is the first time EVER for Texas Tech.  Those teams usually don’t move on.  In fact, since 1988, there have been 14 teams that made it to the Final 4 for the first time ever.  Those teams are 4-10 SU with only ONE winning the National Championship (UConn in 1999).  We like the experience of MSU here and with the line now sitting at -2.5 we’re almost just asking them to win the game.  Take the Spartans on Saturday.