Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -131 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
9* Boston (7:10 ET): I “whiffed” on this matchup last night as the Over did NOT come through. It certainly looked good early on when the Astros put five runs on the board in the second inning. But with the game 7-1 after four innings (I needed only two more runs!), scoring came to a “screeching halt” as it was all “0’s” on the board the rest of the way. Boston going 0 for 9 with RISP certainly didn’t help matters. After all, this is a team that averages 5.0 runs per game at Fenway Park this season. Houston is a good team and I believe it’s only a matter of time before they eventually overtake Oakland in the AL West (just look at the respective run differentials!). I’ve got the Astros rated as a top six team in all of MLB right now, but the Red Sox aren’t far behind at #7. After getting beaten badly at home last night, I like Boston to bounce back here as the offense should definitely pick up against Jake Odorizzi, who has a 7.17 ERA in five starts for Houston. Odorizzi lasted only three innings against the Red Sox last week and he gave up three runs. That is Boston’s only win in five tries against the Astros in 2021. Odorizzi is 1-4 with a 6.26 ERA all-time at Fenway. One could argue the “schedule caught up” with the Red Sox yday as they were facing their third different opponent in as many days. But I look for starter Nathan Eovaldi (3-0, 1.20 ERA L3 starts) to even the odds tonight. Obviously, Martin Perez did NOT give the home team a quality outing on Tuesday. But Eovaldi did his last time out, at Yankee Stadium, and has the benefit of not having faced the Astros in the previous series between the teams. Perez had and that’s why I didn’t like his chances yesterday. Eovaldi hasn’t dropped a decision since 4/24. 9* Boston |
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06-07-21 | Cubs v. Padres -120 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
10* San Diego (10:10 ET): A big-time revenge spot for the Padres and on top of that, they’ve dropped B2B games at home. It wound up being a weekend split with the Mets, which is disappointing given that SD took the first two of that four-game set. But what they’re concerned about here is avenging a three-game sweep they suffered at Wrigley Field last week. That was just the second time all season that they suffered a sweep, the other coming at home vs. Milwaukee last month. This team is too good to stay down for long (I still have them rated #4 in my power ratings coming into the week) and I expect them to get their revenge Monday. The Cubs are now tied for first place in the NL Central (w/ Milwaukee) and look like the best team in that particular division. But after sweeping the Padres last week, the Cubs were nearly swept themselves out in San Francisco. They avoided the sweep with a 4-3 win on Sunday, but they are still just 12-16 on the road this season. Be aware that a reason for the Cubs’ success is the fact they have the most one-run wins (13) in all of MLB. I’m not sure how they’ve managed to go 13-4 vs.. left-handed starters seeing as how they are hitting a collective .219 in those contests. San Diego will send a southpaw (Ryan Weathers) to the mound on Monday. He’s still looking for his first win (0-1), but in seven starts Weathers has a 2.30 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. He did allow four runs in five innings against the Cubs last week, but the wind was blowing out that day (gave up 2 HRs). Road teams are averaging just 2.9 rpg here in SD (.196 BA). Adbert Alzolay has won his L2 starts for the Cubs, the last one coming against the Padres, but he’s never won three in a row this season. The Cubs are 17-35 L52 as a road underdog while the Padres are 41-15 L56 as home favorites. I like SD’s bats to “wake up.” 10* San Diego |
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06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -138 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees have dropped 9 of 12 and while they’re still very much in the thick of the AL East pennant chase, the emerging gap between them and the other three contending team in run differential is a bit concerning. The Pinstripes now have a -3 run differential on the season. The Rays, Red Sox and Blue Jays are all +39 or better. Boston is +51 and has taken the first two games of this three-game set at Yankee Stadium. But I look for NY to avoid the sweep tonight on “Sunday Night Baseball.” Coming into 2021, the Yankees were expected to rule the AL East while Boston wasn’t supposed to contend. It’s fairly shocking to see that the Yankees have scored the fifth fewest number of runs in all of baseball this season. Only three really bad teams (Pirates, Tigers, Nats) and the Mets, who have played just 51 games (8 fewer than than Yankees) have scored fewer. I think a turnaround at the plate is forthcoming. I am certainly not scared of fading Red Sox starter Garrett Richards in this spot as he has just seven quality starts since the start of last season. While the lack of hitting has been a disappointment, starting pitching has been surprisingly solid in the Bronx. One of the reasons for that is today’s starter Domingo German, who missed all of last year due to suspension. German has 0.96 WHIP in five home starts, so the fact he’s winless at Yankee Stadium seems unfair. He has a 0.79 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Yankees are 7-1 his last eight starts overall. Coming into this series, Boston had dropped 15 of their last 16 games at Yankee Stadium. I can’t see them sweeping this weekend. I just can’t. 8* NY Yankees |
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06-06-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (2:15 ET): My, how the tables have turned. When these NL Central rivals met here in St. Louis back in late April, the end result was a three-game sweep by the Cardinals. Fast forward to the present and the Redbirds are now facing the potential embarrassment of being swept in a four game series here at Busch Stadium. The revenge angle is what led me to take the Reds back on Thursday. They won that one 4-2. Then they won 6-4 on Friday (with Luis Castillo, whose TSR was 1-10, on the mound!) Saturday was 5-2 Reds. But here on Sunday, it’s time to back the Birds. I can’t see them losing four in a row at home. While it’s performed rather well in this series, pitching has been an issue for the Reds all season. They’ve given up the second most runs in the entire National League (only Arizona has allowed more). That they’ve beaten the Cards three straight times with the likes of Gutierrez, Castillo and Tyler Mahle starting is pretty amazing. Now it’s Wade Miley set to toe the rubber on Sunday. While Miley has allowed just 1 ER in B2B outings, he’s still got a 6.58 ERA and 2.121 WHIP his L3 times out. That’s because the last time he started on the road (at Colorado), he was charged with eight runs in only 3 IP. The WHIP of Cardinals’ starter John Gant is a bit higher than what you’d typically see from someone that also has a 1.60 ERA, but the team will take it. St. Louis is 3-0 in Gant’s previous three starts and he hasn’t allowed a single run in either of the last two (11 scoreless innings). I see him as a “stopper” of sorts here on Sunday. Gant already held the Reds scoreless for six innings back on 4/24 and that was starting opposite Miley. In 10 starts this season, Gant has yet to allow more than 3 ER even one time. Prior to yday’s loss, the Cardinals were 3-0 this season off three straight defeats. 10* St. Louis |
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06-05-21 | Indians v. Orioles -118 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:05 ET): It seems a bit fortunate that Cleveland would be five games over .500 (30-25). They’ve been outscored by eight runs this season, giving them a win expectancy of 27. They lost last night 3-1 here in Baltimore, a game where I easily cashed the Under. It was 1-0 Indians after six, but they dropped to 20-2 when leading after six innings as Baltimore did all of its scoring in the 7th and 8th. The go-ahead HR had to be upheld by video review, but the Orioles will take a win any way they can after a horrific May (5-23 overall) that ended with 14 straight losses. Baltimore is now “hot” (3-0 in June!) and will be sending their best starter to the mound Saturday afternoon. That would be John Means, who has already thrown one of MLB’s six no-hitters this season. It was basically a “perfect game” as the only baserunner to reach came after a dropped third strike. Means has given the Orioles more than just the one “near perfect” outing, however. He has a 2.05 ERA/0.796 WHIP in 11 starts and only one time has he allowed more than three earned runs. That WHIP is the best in the entire American League. Means is winless since the no-hitter, but continues to pitch well. He’s certainly due for a ‘W.’ As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, Cleveland is one of the weakest offensive teams in either league. They are bottom three in both team batting average and on base percentage. They rely heavily on their pitching and while today’s starter (Aaron Civale) is tied for second in wins (7), he’s not as strong as Means IMO. In his last start, Civale allowed 10 hits in a loss to Toronto. He has fewer quality starts compared to Means despite having more wins. The Orioles showed last night that they can win without scoring many runs. Expect that to happen again Saturday. 10* Baltimore |
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06-02-21 | A's -153 v. Mariners | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Oakland (10:10 ET): While I’m not at all convinced the A’s are going to be able to stay in front of the Astros in the race for the AL West pennant, I’m even less sold on the idea of the Mariners being able to maintain a .500 record moving forward. In terms of the gap between actual and expected wins, no team in all of MLB has overachieved more than Seattle has. The M’s have the run differential of a 22-win team, yet are sitting in third place in the division with a 28-28 record. Not for long though. Oakland came from behind to take Tuesday’s game, 12-6, after losing the series opener on Monday. The A’s have more hits in this series (23-19) and that loss on Monday came in extra innings. Extra inning results have been vital to Seattle overachieving thus far as they are a perfect 5-0 in such games. But counting on that kind of good fortune to persist seems foolhardy. This Mariners team is among the very worst in all of baseball offensively. They are dead last in both team batting average (.207) and on base percentage (.284). Here at home, the M’s are batting just .193! So it should be an easy day for Oakland starter Sean Manaea, who already has an 8-3 TSR on the year. His numbers on the road are just “so-so,” but that’s largely because of one poor outing at Boston (who is one the strongest offensive clubs). In seven of his last 10 starts, Manaea has allowed 2 ER or less. He’s allowed just one run in three of his four starts on the road. Seattle’s Chris Flexen is far less consistent as his L2 starts have produced both the best and worst performances of his career. Oakland is 15-8 in road games. 10* Oakland |
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05-31-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -174 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): The Dodgers just dropped three in a row to the division rival Giants, but they should bounce back on Memorial Day (at home) against the Cardinals. St. Louis is in first place in the NL Central, but they only have a +5 run differential for the season, which is not what you’d expect from a club that’s seven games over .500. The team they lead by half a game in the division, the Cubs, has a much better YTD run differential and based on that you’d expect a “changing of the guard” in the Central fairly soon. How about today? Even though they are on a three-game losing streak, I don’t see much reason to be concerned with the Dodgers. This is still one of the best teams in baseball and they are 3-1 this season when on a 3-game losing streak. They’ve got Trevor Bauer on the hill Monday and his 5-6 team start record is very misleading when you consider his ERA and WHIP are 2.07 and 0.818 respectively. Bauer has gone a full six innings in all but one start this season and has allowed 2 ER or less 10 consecutive times. He’ll pitch well tonight. Bauer will be opposed by Jack Flaherty, who has a 9-1 TSR and has been one of the best pitchers to bet on in all of baseball. But most of Flaherty’s starts have come as a favorite. He actually allowed seven runs his last time out, though four were unearned. That ended up being the first time all year that the Cardinals lost a Flaherty start and it came on the road against a very good team (White Sox). It’s a similar matchup Monday and St. Louis is coming off a 9-2 loss to an Arizona team that had previously lost 13 in a row. 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-31-21 | Pirates v. Royals -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
9* Kansas City (8:10 ET): This sets up as a favorable series for the host Royals, who get to play two games against the worst team in all of baseball. Pittsburgh comes in as losers of seven of nine. They did take two of three in the last series, but that was at home against Colorado, who is also bad. The last time the Pirates had to hit the road, they got outscored 33-3 in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves. They’ve subsequently scored three runs or less in four of the last six games. Don’t expect much offense from the Bucs today as they are averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the road this season with a .219 average. They are also just 3-7 in games vs. left-handed starters (21-45 L3 seasons). The southpaw that they’ll see Monday is Mike Minor, who has pitched well recently with a 3.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Minor held Tampa Bay (who has been hot at the plate) to just one run and two hits (in five innings). Kansas City has won three of its previous four series and just took two of three in Minnesota for their first series win there since 2017. They could only manage a split of two games when they visited Pittsburgh last month, but now they get them at home. No team has been outscored by more runs than the Pirates have (-74 run differential) and Monday starter Chad Kuhl is coming off the 10-day DL after posting an ugly 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP his previous three starts. KC is 6-0 its last six interleague home games when facing a right-handed starter. 9* Kansas City |
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05-30-21 | Padres v. Astros -105 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
10* Houston (2:10 ET): The Astros have been dealt two very painful extra inning losses by the Padres. Friday’s 10-3 defeat was as misleading a final score as you’ll ever see as San Diego scored seven runs in the top of the 10th. What happened Saturday may have been even more painful, however. Houston led 6-1 going into the eighth inning and then 6-3 going into the ninth, which is when Fernando Tatis tied the game with a 3-run HR. After the teams exchanged runs in the 10th and 11th, the Padres put the game to bed with a three-run 12th. They are now a MLB-best 8-0 in Interleague Play this season. The Astros have clearly deserved a better fate in this series (as have Under bettors!) and I think they’ll avoid the sweep Sunday. They hand the ball to Zack Greinke, who has a 0.857 WHIP his L3 starts. In 26 career starts vs. the Padres, Greinke is 13-3 with a 2.44 ERA. (Remember he spent a lot of time in the National League). Despite what’s gone down in this series, I still firmly believe that Houston is the best team in the AL West. Just look at their vastly superior run differential. They have won six of Greinke’s previous eight starts, the only losses coming to the Yankees and Dodgers. San Diego has now played four consecutive extra inning games, so they’ve got to be getting a bit tired. There is no denying that this is a very good baseball team, one that is very much living up to the preseason hype. However, it sure seems fortunate that they are averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road with a .239 team average. (Houston averages a near identical # of rpg at home, but w/ a BA that’s almost 30 pts higher). Speaking of the road, Padres starter Blake Snell has a 7.85 ERA and 2.017 WHIP in five away starts (0-5 TSR). 10* Houston |
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05-29-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox -152 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
8* Boston (4:10 ET): Rain wreaked havoc on last night’s MLB slate. The Marlins and Red Sox only got six innings in for their series opener, but that’s enough to make it an “official game” and Boston will gladly take the 5-2 win. This is an important weekend for the Red Sox as they’ve fallen out of first place in the AL East and now trail the red hot Rays by one-half game. With a 6-2 record in Interleague Play and 11-5 record vs. left-handed starters, I’m confident they’ll win again Saturday. Nathan Eovaldi will start this one for the home team. He has pitched better on the road than here at Fenway in 2021, but facing a National League lineup should be a favorable matchup. While Miami does get to use a DH in this series, this is a lineup that only averages 3.9 runs per game and hits .220 on the road. Over the last four games, the Marlins have scored just eight total runs. While he’s had some tough outings, Eovaldi has allowed 2 ER or fewer six times this season. He has a 1.102 WHIP over his last three outings. Miami’s chance for success today rests heavily on the arm of starter Trevor Rogers, who has a 1.75 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in 10 starts. But he’ll be facing a much stronger lineup than he usually faces this afternoon. The Red Sox are tied for the #1 spot in all of MLB as they are averaging 5.2 runs per game. This being a day game is a big edge for Boston as the Marlins average only 2.5 rpg (.185 BA) in 16 afternoon starts this season. Rogers only previous IL start of 2021 was at home and against Baltimore. 8* Boston |
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05-27-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The line movement for tonight’s series opener between St. Louis & Arizona definitely caused me to raise an eyebrow. The D’backs, losers of 10 in a row and 20 of 24 games this month, are now slight favorites to beat a first place Cardinals team that won 4-0 yesterday afternoon. Now I’m certainly willing to fade the Cards again after they “got one over” on me in that game vs. the White Sox on Wednesday afternoon. They won despite only five hits, but two were Tommy Edman home runs and that’s all they needed. But I sense this is a trap game for a team that’s failed to score more than four runs in any of its last six games. Meanwhile, little has gone right for Arizona and yesterday’s 5-4 loss to the Giants may have been the new nadir. They blew an early 4-0 lead and down one run in the bottom of the ninth, they left the bases loaded. It was a game they outhit the Giants 13-9, but the D’backs could not get a run across the plate after the second inning. Just like St. Louis, the D’backs are struggling to score, but they do average a solid 5.0 rpg at home where they are hitting .265. That’s a lot better average than St. Louis, who hits just .216 on the road. So I see Arizona’s losing skid coming to an end today as they send rookie Matt Peacock out to the bump. In his two previous starts, Peacock has not been bad at all as he has a 2.61 ERA and 0.968 WHIP. I’m simply not sold on this St. Louis team which leads its division despite a YTD run differential of only +6. Carlos Martinez, who will be their starter on Thursday, began the year with an 0-4 TSR and the team lost his last start, 12-3 to the Cubs. The Cards have won B2B games only one time in the L2 weeks and that was against Pittsburgh. 10* Arizona |
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05-26-21 | Padres -129 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* San Diego (7:40 ET): The Padres finally broke through against the Brewers last night, beating them 7-1 thanks to some savvy baserunning (six steals) and a masterful start from Joe Musgrove. Previously, SD was 0-5 this season vs. the Brew Crew, a record that made little sense given that the Padres are obviously the better team. They’ve now won 10 of their last 11 games and have a half game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West. I currently have San Diego #2 overall in my own personal power rankings. Tonight actually marks the first time in the series that the Padres are favored to win. Last night, they were up against Corbin Burnes, who has been one of the better pitchers in baseball the first two months of the season. But they got to him with five steals and drew three walks. The Padres’ offense has been quite impressive during this 10-1 run, scoring 76 runs or an average of nearly 7.0 per game. Tonight they face former teammate Eric Lauer, a lefty that allowed three home runs the last time he started (which was 5/4). Pitching has been just as key to the Padres success this season. No team is allowing a fewer number of runs per game than San Diego’s 3.1. Opponents are hitting just .202 against them for the year! Milwaukee had just two hits in last night’s game as Musgrove and three relievers totally shut them down. The Brewers are 27th in MLB in runs scored per game and hitting only .209 as a team. Look for them to struggle here against Chris Paddack, who has a 1.38 ERA his L3 starts, all Padres’ wins. 10* San Diego |
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05-26-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -185 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -185 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
6* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): While it’s still early in the season and they have yet to put any real distance between themselves and the rest of the division, the White Sox are clearly establishing themselves as the team to beat in the AL Central. They have the best run differential in all of the American League entering Tuesday (+73) while no other team in the Central is better than +2. This afternoon they go for a three-game sweep of floundering St. Louis, who they’ve outscored 13-4 in the first two games. The Cardinals don’t seem to have recovered from Sunday night’s painful 2-1 loss to the rival Cubs. In that game, they allowed just three hits. While the Cards remain in first place over in the NL Central, they now have a run differential of just +2, a far cry from the White Sox even though the teams have fairly similar records. St. Louis just isn’t scoring many runs of late. Yesterday was the fifth straight game where they finished with three runs or fewer. They are hitting only .215 on the road for the season. The two starting pitchers for this afternoon - John Gant for St. Louis and Carlos Rodon for Chicago - have similar ERAs. But WHIP tells a far different story when it comes to these pitchers’ respective seasons. As I’ve been through before with him, Gant is getting away with putting a LOT of runners on base. His WHIP is 1.563. He’s also lasted more than 5 ⅓ in just one of his eight outings. Compare that to Rodon, who has a WHIP of 0.797. Even though the White Sox ended up not winning the game, Rodon was masterful his last time out in holding the Yankees to just two hits over six scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts. That was the 4th start this year where Rodon didn’t allow a run. He’s allow 1 ER or less in six of seven starts. 6* Chi White Sox |
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05-25-21 | Reds v. Nationals -165 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
7* Washington (7:05 ET): The Reds got off to a 6-1 start, but are 10 games under .500 ever since. They come into this series in the Nation’s Capital having dropped six of seven, all at home. They were swept by the Giants, then lost two of three to the Brewers over the weekend. While the club certainly has no problem putting runs on the board (4th in MLB), run suppression has been a major issue for Cincy as they are dead last in all of MLB in runs per game allowed (5.6). I expect that issue to continue in Tuesday’s opener vs. the Nats and because of who they’re facing on the mound, they won’t be scoring as much as usual. Max Scherzer goes today for the home team and he’s having a strong start to 2021. There’s been only one time in the L8 starts where Scherzer gave up more than two runs and that was under AL rules, meaning he was facing a lineup with a DH. Since joining the Nationals, Scherzer is 5-0 against the Reds with a 1.06 ERA and 55 strikeouts. You’re looking at a 2.24 ERA and 0.852 WHIP from Scherzer this season and with the exception of that one Interleague start, he’s allowed just four total runs over those L8 starts. Tyler Mahle, the Reds starter for Tuesday, allowed seven runs in his last start alone and that lasted only two innings. So this looks to be a pretty significant pitching mismatch in the Nats’ favor. That last start marked the second time Mahle has given up 6+ ER in a start this year. The Reds’ staff was dead last in ERA among NL teams entering the week. Worst of all, Mahle has a 12.15 ERA in two previous starts vs. the Nationals. While Cincy is sinking, Washington is coming off its first off-day in two weeks and a sweep of the Orioles before that. 7* Washington |
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05-24-21 | Padres -101 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
9* San Diego (7:40 ET): I am SHOCKED at the pricing of the Padres for this one. Not only do they have revenge for a prior sweep, but they’re red hot right now (winners of nine in a row). After sweeping Seattle over the weekend (in dominant fashion), I’ve got the Padres ranked at the top of my own personal power ratings in MLB. The last day that San Diego failed to win a game was May 8th. Their only loss since was part of a doubleheader on the 12th as they’ve won 12 of the last 13 games overall. They outscored the Mariners 31-7 over the weekend. Milwaukee got off to fast start this season, but things have quickly gone south. They did just take two of three in Cincinnati, but are just 3-6 their L9 games and Sunday marked only the 2nd time in that stretch they scored more than four runs. That’s simply not enough offense when facing the Padres, who are among the best offensive clubs in baseball. Meanwhile, there aren’t many teams in either league to have scored fewer runs than the Brewers this season. I realize that Brandon Woodruff is pitching tonight for the Brew Crew and his numbers have been outstanding in 2021. But no team is allowing fewer runs per game than San Diego’s 3.1 and during the nine-game win streak, the Padres are averaging 7.3 runs per game. Lefty Blake Snell gets the starting nod here for SD and he’s a terrible matchup for a Milwaukee lineup that’s scoring only 2.5 rpg when against a southpaw starter (just 2-6 in those games). You could point to the fact that the entirety of the Padres’ nine-game run has been at home, but they average more runs per game on the road and Milwaukee has a losing home record. Look for the Padres to get revenge here for last month’s sweep. 9* San Diego |
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05-24-21 | Indians v. Tigers -124 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Tigers aren’t going to get my endorsement many times this season, but they are taking the field with revenge on the mind and Spencer Turnbull on the mound Monday. The last time we saw Turnbull, he tossed one of MLB’s six no-hitters this season. That outing came in Seattle and was the continuation of a strong start to 2021 for the right-hander, who now has 2.88 ERA and 0.961 WHIP in six starts. Facing a Cleveland team that doesn’t hit particularly well (.214 BA), Turnbull should be effective yet again tonight. Though Detroit has lost each of the previous two days (I played against them Saturday), they’ve done a decent job at climbing out of the “abyss” they were in early in the season. Things looked particularly dire when they’d dropped 16 of 18 games. But they’ve now won 9 of 13 and yesterday’s loss in KC came on a walk-off HR. The team still doesn’t hit particularly well, but they’ve gotten good pitching of late and that trend should certainly continue with Turnbull. Also, I’d like to point out that the Tigers left 20 men on base the L2 days, which certainly helps explain those losses. I think they could be poised for an offensive breakthrough tonight. Sam Hentges will be making his third start for Cleveland in this one and he’s yet to be effective. I was at the ballpark to watch his 1st start and have to say the Indians were lucky to win that one (2-1 over the Cubs) as Hentges put a LOT of runners on base in his 4 ⅔ innings of work. He was even worse when I faded him exactly one week ago, a 7-4 loss to the Angels where he gave up six runs in 1 ⅔ IP. Control has been an issue. When the Indians swept the Tigers, that was at Progressive Field. They come into Detroit having lost six of nine and fell in extra innings Sunday (which can always be deflating for the next day). A rare chance to take the Tigers. 10* Detroit |
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05-23-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
9* St. Louis (7:05 ET): The Cubs and Cards play the rubber match of this three-game set Sunday night on ESPN. As of right now, these are looking like the two best teams in the division (NL Central). The Pirates are awful, the Reds can’t pitch and the Brewers can’t score. These two are more complete ball clubs. It was a dominant 12-3 win by the Cubs on Friday, but that was followed by the Cardinals winning 2-1 yesterday. The fact that the home team has been able to split the first two games while scoring only five combined runs is something I view as a positive as it’s likely they’ll “break out” at the plate tonight. I say that because they’re facing Zach Davies, who has not been particularly impressive in 2021 even though he has a winning team start record (5-4). Davies is 2-2 in those nine starts with a 5.58 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. The numbers get even more dire on the road (8.59, 2.249). He also isn’t going very deep into games. Only one time, against lowly Pittsburgh, has he gone a full six innings. Six of his nine starts have been five innings or less. The Cubs haven’t been a very good road team thus far as they’re just 7-13 outside of Wrigley Field and getting outscored by a full run per game. St. Louis is 15-9 at Busch Stadium and a big reason for their success here is that opposing teams are batting only .219. Adam Wainwright, a long-time Cubs nemesis, will look to continue that trend tonight. No active pitcher has more career victories against the Cubs than Wainwright’s 17. While he was rocked last weekend by San Diego, Wainwright’s last start here at home saw him nearly go the distance (8 ⅓ IP) while allowing no runs and just three hits. The Cubs had only five hits on Saturday after being fortunate enough to score 12 runs on 12 hits Friday. This might seem like an “even matchup,” but I like the Cards a lot here. 9* St. Louis |
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05-23-21 | Astros -167 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -167 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
8* Houston (2:35 ET): While I’m a big believer in teams wanting to exact revenge for a previous sweep (especially if they’re division foes), the results of this series are a bit head-scratching. Texas came in with revenge for a four-game sweep they suffered in Houston last weekend. So you had to figure they’d win one this weekend. But they’ve now won two following yesterday’s 8-4 triumph. Despite coming in as bigger underdogs (on the money line), Saturday was actually an easier win than Friday (which was an extra inning affair). I can’t see the Astros being swept this weekend, so I’ll take them on Sunday. I believe Houston is definitely the best team in the AL West this season. Just look at the run differential column in the standings. They are +60. No other team in the division has a positive run differential! Going by that metric, the ‘Stros should be running away with things. They’re not. Instead, they are currently 1.5 games back of Oakland, who they just took two of three from earlier this week. Cristian Javier will get the baseball today for Houston, looking to play stopper. He’s charged with slowing down the Rangers’ red hot slugger Adolis Garcia, whose three home runs in this series have proved to be the difference. Javier is 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in three previous starts vs. Texas and earned a win against them last weekend by allowing three runs on four hits, over seven innings. He followed that up with another quality start at Oakland. For the season, Javier’s WHIP is 0.977. The Astros have the second highest scoring offense in baseball (scored one fewer run than Boston), so they should do well today against the Rangers’ Mike Foltynewicz, who has not been pitching well of late (7.04 ERA, 1.695 WHIP L3 starts). 8* Houston |
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05-22-21 | Tigers v. Royals -143 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (4:10 ET): The revenge factor has now increased for the Royals after dropping Friday’s series opener to the Tigers by a score of 7-5. They were previously swept up in Detroit earlier this month, a result which begat the Tigers shockingly winning 9 of their last 11 games. The Tigers no longer own the worst run differential in all of MLB (Pittsburgh does, after losing 20-1 yday), but they are last among American League clubs at -55. I can’t see KC dropping another one at home to them. Last night, the Royals looked to be on their way to exacting some revenge for that prior sweep. They led 5-3 going into the top of the 7th, which is when disaster struck (i.e. a 4-run Detroit inning). It was one swing of the bat, a Miguel Cabrera grand slam, that changed things from 5-3 Royals to 7-5 Tigers. Cabrera homered twice Friday, doubling his season total to four. It should be noted that the Tigers have now won four in a row. That matches a season-high. They are 7-15 in day games though and all “good” streaks must come to an end. The Tigers will have Matthew Boyd, arguably their most consistent starter, on the mound Saturday. But he allowed five runs his last time out in what was his worst outing to date. For the third time this season, he’ll be opposed by the Royals’ Brady Singer. Back on 4-24, Boyd was bested by Singer in a 2-1 pitchers’ duel. Boyd then got some revenge earlier this month in another game that was decided by one run. Both games were in Detroit. At the end of the day, this simply boils down to the revenge factor and the fact the Tigers still aren’t very good. 8* Kansas City |
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05-22-21 | Twins v. Indians -162 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians were embarrassed at home last night, losing 10-0 to the Twins. With ace Shane Bieber on the bump Saturday afternoon, you’ve got to like the Tribe’s chances of bouncing back. It has been a massively disappointing start to the season for the Twins, who have the worst win percentage in the American League (.364). I’ve stated before that they’ve been more “unlucky” than “bad,” but that doesn’t mean they’re going to win two in a row at Progressive Field where beating Bieber is certainly a “tall order.” Bieber has a 6-3 team start record this season, but the Indians did lose his last start 6-3 up in Seattle. The club has now dropped five of seven following a season-best stretch where they won 9 of 10. Last time out was the first time all season that Bieber failed to go five innings. His number of strikeouts is “down” over the L3 starts, but he still leads all of MLB with 92 on the year. One would have to go back to August of 2019 to find the last time Bieber lost B2B starts. Bieber has had the Twins’ number through the years, especially when facing them at home. He’s 3-0 against them in five all-time starts at Progressive Field. He also had a 2.14 ERA (w/ 31 strikeouts) the three times he faced them in 2020. Kenta Maeda, who has been dealing with a groin issue, goes for the Twins Saturday. I don’t think he’s up for this challenge considering he’s allowed 5+ runs in three of his last five starts. Just one time in eight starts has he lasted a full six innings and when he pitched here in Cleveland on 4-27, he gave up three home runs in 7-4 loss. 8* Cleveland |
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05-21-21 | Tigers v. Royals -150 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -150 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals have revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered up in the Motor City earlier this month. The Tigers, shockingly, have now won 8 of 10 following another sweep as they won all three games in Seattle earlier this week. But they still have the worst run differential in all of baseball at -57 and I just can’t see them winning a fourth straight game overall, or beating the same opponent four times in a row for that matter. Expect KC to get its revenge here in the series opener. The Royals come into this series with some “momentum” (hate that word) of their own as they have won four of five and just took both games vs. Milwaukee. Those two were at home and what’s impressive about the wins is they beat Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, who are the Brew Crew’s two top starting pitchers. It should be noted that all seven times the Royals have faced the Tigers this season, the game has been in Detroit. In the first series, they took three of four. Other than Seattle earlier this week, Detroit has swept two other teams this year. Following each prior sweep, they lost the next series opener. The Tigers allowed only three runs in the entire series vs. Seattle, but expect them to give up more than that tonight with Jose Urena starting. Urena has managed to last just seven total innings in his last two starts combined and he gave up four runs in 2 ⅔ innings his last outing. He also took a liner off his leg, so he may not be 100 percent here. The Royals go w/ Mike Minor, who was excellent in his last appearance, allowing just one run and two hits in a 5-1 win (+175) over the White Sox. The team’s bullpen has also been outstanding of late, giving up just three runs in its last 25 innings of work. Detroit is just 8-20 following an off-day. 10* Kansas City |
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05-20-21 | Astros -111 v. A's | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
10* Houston (3:37 ET): Personally, I believe it is inarguable that Houston is better than Oakland. They are up 6-3 in the season series and the disparity in run differential has gotten quite ridiculous, especially when you consider that the A’s are the team in first place. Following the lopsided 8-1 win on Wednesday night, the Astros have a +62 run differential on the season. That’s second best in all of MLB. On the other hand, the A’s have a -14 YTD run differential, which makes you question how they got to 26-18. I like the Astros to take the series’ rubber match Thursday afternoon. Houston has won seven of eight, the only loss coming in the opener of this series. As mentioned above, they dominated last night’s game. Not only did it end up being 8-1, but they had a 15-4 edge in hits as well. Now they get their third look of the season at Cole Irvin. The southpaw has been very effective for the A’s over his L6 starts (1.89 ERA), but he was rocked both previous times he faced Houston. Irvin allowed eight runs in 9 ⅔ innings and Oakland lost both games, by scores of 9-1 and 6-2. In games where they are facing a LH starter, the Astros’ batting average is .286. Luis Garcia will be on the mound today for Houston. He finally got a win his last time out after holding Texas to just one run in five innings. His 1-5 TSR is very misleading when you consider he has not allowed more than 3 ER in any of the six starts. Garcia has faced Oakland only one time in his career and that was last September when he blanked them over five innings and allowed just one hit. That this will be the Astros’ third time seeing Irvin this season while it’s the first the A’s have faced Garcia is a big edge to the road team, who is the superior ballclub anyway. 10* Houston |
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05-20-21 | Giants v. Reds -129 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -129 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
9* Cincinnati (12:35 ET): The Reds find themselves in an unenviable spot Thursday afternoon, that being in a position to get swept at home in a four-game series. It’s a good Giants team they are facing, but I like to take home teams in this spot. A sense of pride typically kicks in for the home team when they are facing the prospect of being swept. Not that Cincy wasn’t motivated to win any of the L3 days, but I just can’t see them losing four in a row, especially after being shut out last night. The Reds are not a bad team. Cincinnati has actually lost five in a row to the Giants dating back to a previous series in SF. The Giants have been incredibly impressive to this point as they are ahead of the far more heavily hyped Dodgers and Padres in the NL West and have the best win percentage in all of MLB. It’s all about run prevention for them as they are allowing the second fewest runs per game. Cincinnati is the highest scoring team in the National League though and I don’t think they can be “kept down” for four consecutive games. This is only the second time all season that the Reds have lost three in a row. The only longer losing skid was a real ugly one back in April when they dropped seven in a row. Tyler Mahle looks to play “stopper” on the mound today. Mahle has been the team’s most reliable starter this year, with a 6-2 TSR and he’s allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of those eight starts. For the third straight game, the Giants are starting a former Cincinnati pitcher, in this case Johnny Cueto. After spending time on the DL, Cueto has not been all that effective in his L2 starts, giving up seven runs and 16 hits in 7 ⅔ IP. Reds avoid the sweep here. 9* Cincinnati |
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05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners aren’t a team that gets my endorsement very often, but at home off B2B losses to the Tigers is probably a good time to “jump on.” Getting swept at home by a team with the worst run differential in the sport would be quite embarrassing and it’s a fate that I believe the M’s will be determined to avoid Weds night. The Tigers, who have won seven of nine since a brutal 2-13 stretch, got a no-hitter (already the 5th of this MLB season) last night from Spencer Turnbull. But one game shouldn’t alter the perception of a team that’s been outscored by 61 runs so far this season. So Seattle was no-hit last night and has put only one run on the board in this series. But they get a break tonight in that they will be facing Tarik Skubal. The Tigers have lost all six Skubal starts so far with the southpaw posting a 6.26 ERA and 1.537 WHIP. He’s 0-3 on the road with a 9.00 ERA and 1.909 WHIP. While Detroit has been getting good pitching recently, that streak figures to end tonight and this is still the lowest scoring team in the American League. Now Seattle starter Logan Gilbert didn’t exactly have an outstanding 2021 debut when he made his 1st start last week against Cleveland. He allowed two homers and four runs in four innings. The good news for Gilbert, who is widely considered the best pitching prospect in the organization, is he had five strikeouts and zero walks. I think he’ll be a lot better here against a weaker opponent. The Mariners’ offense figures to wake up as well. 10* Seattle |
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05-19-21 | Nationals -146 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:40 ET): Had this particular starting pitching matchup taken place in 2015 (the year that Jake Arrieta won the Cy Young), then perhaps I’d be looking at betting the Under. But in 2021, Max Scherzer vs. Arrieta is a lopsided mismatch, clearly in the former’s favor. Scherzer comes into Wednesday’s start sporting a 2.10 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He’s 2-0 this month with a no decision. Those three starts have seen Scherzer go 21 ⅔ innings and give up only two runs (both solo HRs) on nine hits. He’s fanned 30 opposing hitters while walking just two. Arrieta also won his last time out, though he gave up two home runs. He was fortunate that no one was on base either time. It was also fortunate that he was facing the lowly Detroit Tigers. Despite that win, Arrieta hasn’t been all that great lately with a 5.87 ERA his L3 starts. He was coming off a two-week stint on the injured list before facing the Tigers. Against the Nationals, he’s just 2-3 with a 4.45 ERA in 17 career starts. Now compare that to Scherzer, who is 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Cubs. Scherzer will have to be at his best here as the Cubs have taken the first two games of this series. I had them on Monday, but the pitching matchup was much more favorable to them that day. Thanks to some reshuffling in the lineup, the Cubs’ offense has woken up a bit in a 4-1 stretch. But they figure to be quieted back down tonight. They are still hitting only .212 in games vs. RH starters and Scherzer is a righty. 8* Washington |
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05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels -136 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (9:40 ET): In spite of Mike Trout’s best efforts, the Angels are off to a bad start this season and really their 17-22 record could probably be a lot worse when you consider they’ve been outscored by 47 runs. In all of baseball, only the Tigers have a worse run differential. So it may seem curious that I’m putting my dollars behind them on Monday. But I think this is a good spot to take the Halos as they open a three-game set with light-hitting Cleveland. They just snapped a four-game losing streak Sunday (beat Boston 6-5) while the Indians just dropped three in a row out in Seattle. Over its last six games, Cleveland has not scored more than four runs. They’ve managed just 17 runs total in those six games and going back a bit further, they’ve been held to four or less in eight of the last nine games. So this sounds like a great spot for Patrick Sandoval to make his 2021 starting debut for the Angels. Sandoval has made three appearances out of the bullpen and has held opponents to a .214 average. Cleveland is 29th in MLB with a .209 team batting average. The Angels have much better hitting than the Indians as they are 5th in MLB with a .250 average. Shohei Ohtani hit the GW HR (in the top of the ninth) yesterday after Trout snapped a rare 0 for 18 slump at the plate (w/ a single). You have to figure Trout is going to start turning things around after being held hitless for five games. While Sam Hentges didn’t allow any runs his lone start thus far (last Weds vs. Cubs), he did put eight runners on base in 4 ⅔ IP. The Angels are a sharp play Monday. 8* LA Angels |
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05-17-21 | Nationals v. Cubs -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:40 ET): The Cubs starter for Monday, Adbert Alzolay, is due a much better fate than his current 2-4 team start record. I say that based on his 0.875 WHIP in the six starts this season. Not only has he allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of those six starts, but Alzolay has also struck out six or more batters each of his last five times out. He’s been opposed by some good teams/pitchers so far and hasn’t always gotten the best run support. I feel that will change tonight against last place Washington. The Nationals did take two of three in Arizona over the weekend, but are still only 16-20 on the year. After they and the D’backs exchanged blowouts on Friday & Saturday, it was a 3-0 shutout Sunday. That was the Nats’ 4th shutout win of 2021, but now they face an opponent that is averaging 5.1 runs per game at home. The Cubs are a much better team at the Friendly Confines of Wrigley than they are on the road. They too are off a win Sunday as they took two of three from Detroit over the weekend. Opposing Alzolay in this series opener will be the Cubs’ old friend Jon Lester, who was part of the 2016 team that won the World Series. Lester’s season started late due to COVID-19 and while he hasn’t looked bad, he’s facing a team here that is 9-3 vs. left-handed starters. Washington hasn’t done much scoring when Lester is on the mound (just two runs in each start), which is why his TSR is 1-2. Alzolay has a 29.3% strikeout rate, which is very good and I view him as the superior starter in this matchup. 8* Chi Cubs |
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05-16-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -167 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
8* Toronto (1:07 ET): This rematch of the 1993 World Series has seen each team win a game. The Phillies struck first with a 5-1 triumph on Friday, but then the Blue Jays returned the favor with yesterday’s 4-0 shutout. While the teams both enter Sunday with 21 wins on the season (Toronto has two fewer losses), the respective run differentials would certainly seem to indicate the home team is a lot better here. The Jays are +34 in run differential this season while the Phils are actually -2. With a surge in price, I know who I’ll be taking in today’s rubber match. Today’s starting pitching matchup tells a similar story to what I was describing above. Both Chase Anderson (Philadelphia) and Robbie Ray (Toronto) have 3-0 team start records in their last three starts. However, Ray has simply been better. He has posted four consecutive quality starts (33-1 KW ratio!) with a 0.911 WHIP in the last three. Ray has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Home runs have been his lone issue so far, but the Phillies lineup he’ll be facing Sunday may be without Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and Didi Gregorious. That’s a huge break for Ray and the Jays. Anderson, who posted a 7.22 ERA last season pitching for Toronto, has a 5.23 ERA for Philadelphia this season. That 2021 ERA is two full points higher than Ray’s. His WHIP is much higher the L3 starts compared to Ray and on the road Anderson has struggled with a 7.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He’s yet to go more than five innings in any start. The Phillies are 12-27 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 the L3 seasons and Toronto is 8-2 vs. the NL this season. 8* Toronto |
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05-15-21 | A's v. Twins -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): Well, it was a “swing and a miss” on the Twins yesterday as they fell to 0-4 this season against the A’s. The series opener wasn’t close as Oakland homered four times en route to an easy 6-1 win. But that result and the entire season series aside, I still feel both of these teams’ records are misleading. I’ll be rehashing much of yday’s analysis here and Friday’s game actually only strengthens my belief that Minnesota is going to (finally) get its revenge today. Having a better starter on the mound today (compared to yday) is definitely a bonus. The Twins went just 1 for 6 with RISP yesterday and left seven men on base. Lack of clutch hitting has really hurt them this season and so has an extremely unfortunate 0-7 record in extra inning games. The result is MLB’s worst record at 12-24. But, as I said in yday’s analysis, I don’t think for a second that this club is as bad as its record. Coming into this series, their YTD run differential wasn’t that far off from the A’s, who continue to lead the AL West thanks to a 13-game win streak last month (that included a sweep of the Twins). But two of the three wins in that previous series with Minnesota were by just one run. Jose Berrios started one of those one-run losses for the Twins and he held the A’s to one run in five innings. He’s now coming off B2B 6-inning outings. Berrios has never allowed more than 4 ER this season and five of his seven starts have seen him give up 2 ER or less. Cole Irvin starts today for the A’s and while he’s been better over his L5 starts, he did allow a pair of home runs his last time out. It speaks volumes that the oddsmakers have a last place team favored on the money line against a first place team. 10* Minnesota |
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05-14-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:10 ET): The Cardinals are coming off a very hard-fought series with the Brewers where they were able to take two of three, despite not scoring many runs. They won 2-0 Thursday and that was after just nine hits in the first two games, one of which was a highly misleading 6-1 final (they scored five runs in the top of the 11th in that one). While currently tied for the most wins in MLB (23), I don’t think they can continue to succeed this way and it's a tough matchup on Friday in San Diego as they must deal with Joe Musgrove in the series opener. Back on April 9th in Texas, Musgrove tossed the first no-hitter in Padres’ history. At the time, it was a 28-inning scoreless streak for him dating back to the end of last season. Things have seemingly “leveled off” considerably for Musgrove since the no-no, but he definitely deserves better than a 3-4 team start record on the year when you consider his ERA (3.23) and WHIP (0.846). All of Musgrove’s last three starts have come against either the Giants or the Dodgers, perhaps the two best teams in the National League. Tonight, at home, should be a more favorable matchup. San Diego came into the 2021 season with very lofty expectations. Their 21-17 record could be better, but they have outscored opponents by 27 runs. Thursday being an off-day gives them an edge here and I see the lineup “getting to” Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo, who has allowed three homers in his two previous outings. No team is giving up fewer runs per game than the Padres (just 3.3) and their record at home (shockingly sub-.500) is due to improve. 8* San Diego |
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05-13-21 | A's v. Red Sox -105 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:10 ET): Two first place teams wrap up a three-game series at Fenway on Thursday. While Oakland has taken the first two games, it is them that I’m more skeptical of at this point of the season. Nobody saw Boston leading the AL East, but the A’s have a -6 run differential this season and somehow lead the West. Compare that to second place Houston (+44) or even the Red Sox (+29). Thus, I see the A’s “falling off” a bit in the coming weeks. The reason they have the most wins in all of MLB (23) right now is because they won 13 in a row last month. Outside that win streak, their record is 10-15. This is just the second three-game losing streak for Boston in 2021. The first is when they began 0-3. They proceeded to win 22 of their next 35 games after that. Puzzling is that the Red Sox are just 10-11 at home. They average 5.2 rpg here and have outscored the opposition. Last night was a frustrating one at the plate as they were 1 for 11 w/ RISP and the top two hitters (Xavier Bogaerts and Rafael Devers) each left five men on base. After scoring only three runs in the first two games of this series, I look for MLB’s highest scoring offense to “break out” Thursday night and end Sean Manaea’s six start unbeaten streak. Manaea almost threw a no-hitter his last time out as the A’s righty gave up only one run on two hits in 7 ⅔ IP. He finished with 11 strikeouts and it was the sixth straight time the team won with him on the mound. But Manaea has a 6.84 ERA in five previous starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox counter with Garrett Richards, who has looked A LOT sharper his L3 outings after a rough start to the year. In those L3 starts, Richards is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA. 10* Boston |
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05-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves -145 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves can’t seem to solve the Blue Jays as they are now 0-5 head to head this season after a 4-1 loss on Wednesday. I had the Braves last night and for the second time in a row, they jumped out to an early lead. But once again the late innings proved problematic as Teoscar Hernandez homered twice for Toronto. At least I still cashed the Under in the game. Today, I believe the Braves do get their revenge as they face the Jays for the final time in 2021. Atlanta has struggled in day games this season (5-8), but they are 45-29 in them the L3 seasons. This early start time sees Charlie Morton getting the nod as he looks to bounce back from an awful outing that was rather atypical. A passed ball (not Morton’s fault, obviously) opened the door for him to six unearned runs in the first innings vs. Philadelphia last Friday. The start before that saw Morton receive a no-decision in Toronto after allowing four runs in 5 ⅓. Remember this time, it’s played under NL rules, so he’ll be facing a weaker Blue Jays lineup, one that is only 4-13 when scoring four runs or less. Also off a poor start is Toronto’s Ross Stripling. He is winless in four starts this year with a 6.61 ERA and 1.898 WHIP. Stripling has yet to go longer than five innings. His last time out saw him charged with three runs in 3 ⅔ IP and take a 10-2 loss against Houston. The team (obviously) won when Stripling started against the Braves on 5/2, but that was at home. It’s revenge time for the Braves on Thursday. 8* Atlanta |
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05-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves -101 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Yesterday, I went 3 for 3 with MLB sides - all of the teams I took had revenge (for a previous series sweep) against their respective opponents. That is still the case here for Atlanta. The Braves got swept in Toronto two weeks ago, then also lost to them yesterday by a score of 5-3. While the revenge angle did not play out Tuesday night, it probably should have as the Braves led 3-2 going into the eighth inning. But a costly mistake in the field opened the door for the Blue Jays to score three times in the eighth. I don’t see the home team losing again though, and will back them in this spot. Atlanta leads all of MLB with 32 runs scored in the first inning this season. So they are getting out to good starts. Today they face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has given up four runs in two of his last three starts. None of the last three starts have gone longer than five innings either. This will be a battle of southpaws as the Braves send out their own lefty, Max Fried, to the bump Wednesday. After spending some time on the DL, Fried looked a lot better his last time out, giving up only one run in five innings as the Braves beat the Nationals 5-3. It really doesn’t make much sense to see Atlanta struggling so much against Toronto. It’s not as if the Blue Jays are a significantly better ballclub. Typically, the Braves are pretty strong at home (81-53 since 2019). This will be Toronto’s ninth straight road game. The key here is holding the Blue Jays under five runs as they are only 3-13 when scoring four or less. I think Fried will do that and additionally the Braves are 62-29 their L91 as a home favorite. 10* Atlanta |
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05-11-21 | Yankees -124 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
9* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Another revenge play here to complete the trifecta as the Yankees were swept at home by the Rays last month. But things have turned around since then for the team wearing pinstripes. They’ve gone 13-6 their L19 games including a pair of dramatic wins over the Nationals this past weekend. Personally, I never believed there was any reason to “panic” in the Bronx as the preseason favorites to win the AL East are among the league leaders in the fewest number of runs per game allowed. As was the case for the Yankees, Monday was an off-day for Tampa Bay. They needed it considering they’d just played 17 consecutive days (went 9-8). Though they really seem to have the Yankees number (18-5 L23 meetings), I still have the Rays ranked fourth in the division. They haven’t been hitting much recently with three of the last five games seeing them record four or fewer hits. At home, they are averaging just 3.1 runs per game with a team batting average of only .210. That won’t cut it. Jordan Montgomery goes here for the Yanks, hoping for better results than the last time he faced TB. He gave up four runs in a 6-3 loss in that previous series. But, the only time the Yankees beat the Rays this season, Montgomery was the starter (back on 4/11). He’s allowed just eight runs in his L3 starts. Luis Patino will start this game for the Rays, likely serving as more of a “opener” as he went just 2 ⅔ in his only previous “official” start. I look for the Yankees to start turning the tide in this AL East rivalry. 9* NY Yankees |
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05-11-21 | Reds v. Pirates -115 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (6:35 ET): The Pirates are 0-4 against the Reds so far this season and were dealt a humiliating 14-1 defeat in yesterday’s series opener. The Bucs have actually been outscored 44-9 in the four losses to the Reds and have lost eight straight times to them going back to 2020. But you’ll notice they are favored tonight, something that hasn’t been the case in any of the previous matchups. They seem to have a decided edge in the starting pitching matchup and I’ll call for them to gain some revenge. JT Brubaker gets the baseball for Pittsburgh in hopes of snapping this miserable run against the Reds. Though his team start record is 1-3, Brubaker has a 27-3 KW ratio his L4 starts. All three walks came his last time out when he and the Pirates were big underdogs against San Diego. All six starts this season have seen Brubaker allowed 3 ER or less and he’s got a 1.93 ERA in two previous starts vs. Cincy. The last one was on April 5th and he allowed just one run on three hits. I expect Brubaker to pitch well in this spot. Cincinnati’s Jeff Hoffman does NOT have particularly inspiring numbers coming into tonight’s start, especially on the road. Last time out he was charged with four runs in 2 ⅓ IP as the Reds lost 9-0 at home to the White Sox. Only one time has he lasted longer than five innings. Hoffman has started against the Pirates two times previous to this, both when he was with the Rockies, and his ERA is 10.13. He has a 1.801 WHIP in his two road starts this year and the Reds are hitting only .216 away from home. 9* Pittsburgh |
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05-07-21 | Reds v. Indians -138 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians impressed me yesterday when they finished off a four-game sweep at Kansas City. They now lead the AL Central with a 17-13 record and have won five straight overall. As per usual, pitching is carrying this team as they’ve posted two shutouts during the five-game win streak, including yday’s 4-0 win. A Cincinnati team that has scored only one run in its last two games (and it came in extra innings) isn’t likely to turn things around at the plate and for the second time today I’ll look to fade the visiting National League team in an Interleague matchup. The Reds got off to a fast start, but now sit a game below .500 (14-15) on the season. They have not been particularly good on the road where they are 4-8 with just 2.9 runs per game scored. Troubling is the fact they are giving up 5.2 runs per game overall as the bullpen isn’t very good. While they did beat the White Sox Wednesday in extra innings, 1-0, the Reds gave up a total of 21 runs the previous two games and have been shut out three times in the L10 games. Two of those shutout losses were by eight runs or more. Zach Plesac doesn’t have the greatest ERA (4.78) for Cleveland, but his WHIP (1.187) tells a bit of a different story. He’s faced the White Sox three times already and the third time was the charm as he shut them out for 5 ⅔ innings Sunday in a 5-0 win. Plesac won’t have to face Joey Votto, who is injured. Wade Miley goes for the Reds and his worst start of 2021 came against Cleveland when he allowed two home runs in a 6-3 loss. Now he’s got to pitch in an American League park. The Reds have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games and six of the last ten. 8* Cleveland |
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05-07-21 | Phillies v. Braves -164 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
7* Atlanta (7:20 ET): Both the Braves and Phillies are off to great starts this week. Each swept its previous opponent and now are set to renew pleasantries. This is already the third series between the NL East rivals this season. The Phillies swept the first (in Philly) before the Braves nearly returned the favor, taking two of three here at home (lost the last game). It will be full capacity at Truist Park this weekend as Atlanta is off a six-game road trip where they were swept by Toronto and then swept the Nationals. The Phillies are coming off a seven-game home stand, which ended with four straight wins over the Brewers. I like the Braves here as Philly has not been good on the road. The Phils are just 4-9 away from the City of Brotherly Love and getting outscored by two full runs per game! They turn to Zach Eflin for Friday’s opener and he has a 6.39 ERA on the road so far. Alarming is the number of hits Eflin has allowed as he’s given up 19 in just the last two starts alone. He’s allowed at least seven hits in five consecutive starts. This will be the third time Eflin has faced Atlanta this season and true to his team’s form, the home game was a win while the road game was a loss. Though the Phils are 17-15, they have a -12 run differential. The Braves gave up just six runs against the Nationals and hope Charlie Morton can continue the string of strong efforts on the mound. Morton, like Eflin, has struggled a bit of late. This will be his third time starting against the Phillies and of course, the home game resulted in a win while the road game was a loss. At home, Morton held them to one run in six innings. Atlanta is the stronger offensive team and that should propel them to victory tonight. 7* Atlanta |
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05-07-21 | Nationals v. Yankees -180 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -180 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The Yankees failed to sweep the Astros yesterday, instead losing 7-4, but I don’t think there’s any denying the fact that the team wearing pinstripes has turned things around of late. The Bronx Bombers are 10-4 their L14 games and were in position to sweep the last series as they led the Astros 3-2 before uncharacteristically giving up five runs across the final two innings. No team in the American League is giving up fewer runs per game than are the Yanks (3.5) and I like them to bounce back with a win today in the opener of a three-game set with Washington. This being an interleague series, the Nationals get to use the DH. But they might need more than that after going 1 for 21 with runners in scoring position in the last series, which saw them get swept at home by the Braves. They were 1 for 12 w/ RISP yday alone. It’s not been a great start to the season for the Nats, who are 12-15 and in last place in the NL East. They have the 4th worst run differential (-22) in all of baseball and second worst in the National League. It certainly doesn’t help that Friday starter Patrick Corbin has an 8.10 ERA and 1.757 WHIP in five starts this year. He’s been particularly bad on the road. For the Yankees, Friday starter Jameson Taillon has been solid at home where he’s got a 2.54 ERA and 0.954 WHIP. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.2 runs per game here at Yankee Stadium while batting .193. So, again, the addition of a DH to their lineup is not necessarily a “panacea” for Washington here. Corbin has been better after getting rocked each of his first two starts, but he still has just as many walks as strikeouts in his L2 outings and he’s allowed seven home runs already. The Yankees are 90-43 at home the L3 seasons. 7* NY Yankees |
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05-06-21 | Indians v. Royals -121 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -121 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (2:10 ET): Yesterday marked a season-first for Cleveland as they finally won a one-run game. They’d previously been 0-4 in such affairs and were the only team in MLB yet to win one. The 5-4 win yday enabled the Tribe to pull into a three-way tie (w/ the Royals and White Sox) atop the AL Central (all teams 16-13). A discrepancy in performance in one-run games was a big reason the Royals (6-2 in one-run games) came into this series with a three-game lead over the Indians, but that’s now gone. However, I do see KC avoiding the dreaded four-game sweep at home due to who they’ll have on the mound Thursday afternoon. In his 11th year with the club, left-hander Danny Duffy is having perhaps his best season for the Royals. He’s 4-1 w/ a microscopic 0.60 ERA and 0.967 WHIP. Some have credited an increased velocity on his fastball as the reason we’re seeing these results. Whatever the reason, Duffy has allowed just five total runs so far in 30 IP. He’s allowed four or fewer hits in four of the five starts. His very first start of 2021 was against Cleveland and he allowed only two hits in six shutout innings. Even though they were facing Indians’ ace Shane Bieber, the Royals did jump out to a 4-0 lead in yesterday’s game. A three-run sixth then closed the gap for Cleveland, who then got homers from Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor (in the 8th and 9th respectively) to “steal” the game. Kansas City actually outhit the Tribe 9-6. After giving up a grand slam in his last outing, Thursday’s starter for Cleveland (Triston McKenzie) is still winless (in four starts) and has a 7.20 ERA/1.733 WHIP this season. He walked the bases loaded before giving up that GS to the White Sox. McKenzie has yet to make it past the fifth inning. I like the pitching matchup from KC’s perspective and home teams don’t get swept in four game series very often. 10* Kansas City |
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05-05-21 | Brewers -134 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): The Brewers have lost three straight, including the first two games of this series (both by one run). But despite the losing streak, this remains a quality ballclub and my favorite to win the NL Central this year. While it’s true they have a negative YTD run differential, that’s largely a byproduct of one bad game (Sunday’s 16-4 loss to the Dodgers). The Brew Crew have been getting outstanding starting pitching thus far and I expect that to be the case tonight when they send Freddy Peralta to the mound. Peralta is unbeaten in five starts (3-0) with a 4-1 TSR. He’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and is coming off an incredibly impressive outing where he held the Dodgers to just one hit (a solo HR) in six innings last Friday. Peralta has allowed just 12 hits so far (in 26 IP) and has 39 strikeouts. Despite losing each of the L2 days, the Brewers are still 9-5 on the road where they are outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. They were also 8-2 off a loss coming into this series. The Phillies lead the NL East right now, but that’s not saying much as their WL record is 15-15 and they have a -15 run differential. They come into today batting just .216 the L7 games. I don’t expect much out of starter Chase Anderson, who has a 6.39 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in his L3 starts. The Phils are just 1-4 with Anderson on the mound this season and have yet to score more than four runs in any of those five starts. Anderson did pick up a win his last time out, but that was against the light-hitting Mets. 10* Milwaukee |
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05-05-21 | Orioles v. Mariners -115 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
8* Seattle (3:40 ET): Because Baltimore is 10-6 in road games this season and has its best starter (John Means) going this afternoon, we’re able to grab a fairly cheap price on the opposition. I say “go for it” as the Mariners won 5-2 yesterday and I am unconvinced Means alone can carry the Orioles to victory here. Despite the surprisingly good record in road games so far, the O’s project to be a pretty lousy team in 2021 and should lose 90+ games. I think now is a good time to fade, before the bottom drops out. Seattle hasn’t exactly been a great offensive team thus far. So opposite Means, they’ll need a good start today from Yusei Kikuchi. Fortunately, Kikuchi looked great his last time out as he allowed just one hit over seven scoreless innings. He’d struggled some in the two starts before that, but has gone 6+ innings while allowing 3 ER or less three times this season. Baltimore has faced Kikuchi only one time previous to this. It was 2019 and Kikuchi pitched well (3 ER allowed in 6 IP) in what turned out to be a 13-3 win. The Mariners have now won four of six following yesterday’s 5-2 victory. One situation they have particularly excelled in this season is day games where their record is 10-3. Key here is that I don’t believe Baltimore is going to score many runs. They are hitting .218 in games vs. LH starters. While it’s unlikely Seattle scores a ton of runs today, they have already won a game against Means this season when they beat the Orioles 4-3 at Camden Yards on 4/13. The three runs allowed by Means in that start are a season-high. 8* Seattle |
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05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's -188 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
6* Oakland (4:10 ET): Throw away that 13-game win streak and the A’s are only 3-12 in the rest of their games this season. They’ve been outscored and are on the verge of being swept here (at home) by lowly Baltimore. I made the mistake of backing them yesterday when some dreadful play in the field led to the Orioles scoring six times in the top of the third. Down 8-0 going into the bottom half of the sixth, the A’s were able to cut the lead in half, but it still ended up being an 8-4 loss on Saturday. While yesterday’s performance wasn’t exactly “inspiring,” I do think the home team bounces back today. We’re not likely to see a repeat of yesterday’s Oakland fielding miscues as it was two errors and two wild pitches (all in the third) that opened the door for Baltimore to jump out to that 6-0 lead. Another boon is that the A’s look to have a significant edge in today’s starting pitching matchup. Sean Manaea has been on a real roll of late, winning each of his L3 starts while posting a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The team has won the last four times he’s taken the mound with Manaea allowing just four runs in 24 innings. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in all four starts. Baltimore starter Bruce Zimmerman is trending in the opposite direction. He’s 0-3 his L3 starts with a 6.07 ERA and 2.024 WHIP. The team has lost each of the last four times he’s taken the mound. Zimmerman has already allowed 6 HR this season and doesn’t have many strikeouts either (just 18 in 25 ⅓ IP). He allowed four runs on nine hits his last time out, lasting only 3 ⅓ in a 5-1 loss to the Yankees. I just can’t see the A’s being swept this weekend nor can I see Baltimore’s success on the road continuing. 6* Oakland |
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05-01-21 | Orioles v. A's -185 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -185 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
7* Oakland (4:07 ET): The A’s had that 13-game win streak, but other than that are just 3-11 this season. They started 0-6 and have now lost four of six following last night’s 3-2 defeat at the hands of Baltimore, which was the 1st time the A’s dropped a home game to the O’s since 2017! Baltimore, who is not expected to be good this season, makes for prime fade material here in my opinion. Since starting 3-0, they’ve yet to win three in a row again. It won’t happen here. While only 4-10 at home, the Orioles are a surprising 8-4 on the road. They’re still in last place in the AL East mind you. Each of the L2 days have seen them prevail by one run, including an extra inning win over the Yankees on Thursday. They are 2-2 vs. Oakland in 2021, however both wins were with John Means as the starter. Matt Harvey will get the baseball on Saturday and he did not pitch in last weekend’s series with the A’s. He is off a shocking quality start against the Yankees on Monday, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of that here. Jesus Luzardo did make a start in last weekend’s series at Camden Yards and despite it being a quality one, he came out on the wrong end against Means. Two home runs are what cost Luzardo in that outing. But he’s still allowed just three runs in his last two starts (12 IP) and should get more run support this time around. Oakland had a chance to tie - or even win - the game last night as they had two runners on in the bottom of the ninth with nobody out. Look for them to improve to 9-3 in day games. 7* Oakland |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -168 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
7* Chi White Sox (4:05 ET): When taking the White Sox +1.5 last night, I did caution they were at a bit of a disadvantage. Not just facing Indians’ ace Shane Bieber, but also due to the fact they played a doubleheader Thursday (swept the Tigers) while the Indians had an off day. Turns out that I should have heeded my own advice. The Sox lost 5-3 Friday, although it should be pointed out that they did outhit Cleveland (8-5) in the game. Look for them to turn the tables this afternoon as Saturday’s pitching matchup is slanted much more in their favor. Even with yesterday’s loss, the White Sox still have one of the best run differentials (+29) in baseball. Only the Dodgers (+34) and Astros (+31) have outscored their opponents by a wider margin this season. Whereas Cleveland came into this series off a 10-2 loss (to Minnesota) on Wednesday, Chicago had won six of seven including the impressive sweep of a doubleheader on Thursday where they allowed just one total run. Speaking of strong pitching, we’ve got Lance Lynn starting today for the home team. He has a 0.92 ERA and 0.915 WHIP through three starts. Surprisingly, the White Sox have gone just 1-2 in those three Lynn starts. He obviously deserves better. After tossing a complete game shutout on 4/18 vs. Kansas City (with 11 strikeouts), Lynn was a hard-luck loser to this Cleveland team a week later. He allowed just two runs and five hits (went six innings) and had 10 more strikeouts. Lynn has been out the L2 weeks (strained trapezius), but should be fine here as he has a 1.41 ERA in five career starts vs. Cleveland. The White Sox are 5-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and the Indians are not a particularly strong offensive team. Triston McKenzie has a 1.615 WHIP and no wins after three starts. 7* Chi White Sox |
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04-29-21 | Yankees -179 v. Orioles | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -179 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
7* NY Yankees (1:10 ET): Reports of the Yankees’ demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated as the club has now won five of seven, including each of the last two days here in Baltimore. Yesterday’s 7-0 shutout was powered by not only seven innings of three-hit ball by Domingo German, but also three home runs. The Yankees have belted six homers in the last two days on their way to outscoring the O’s 12-1. It should also be mentioned that only once in the L10 games has NY pitching given up more than four runs. The Yanks have won 40 of 52 from Baltimore, including 21 of the last 26 here at Camden Yards. That’s not really a surprise given where the two teams have been in the standings the last few seasons. But it is pretty one-sided nonetheless and it doesn’t figure to change here, or in the rest of 2021 for that matter. Jordan Montgomery will start this afternoon for the visitors as he goes for a second sharp outing at the O’s expense this season. Back on April 5th, he tossed six shutout innings against them (in the Bronx) and allowed just four hits. Baltimore has scored two runs or fewer in six of its last nine games. Starting opposite Montgomery for a second time in 2021 will be Jorge Lopez. Back in that April 5th matchup, Lopez was tagged for four runs in 4 ⅔ innings. He’s allowed at least one HR in all four starts (six total) and has yet to pitch more than five innings. The Orioles are just 3-10 at home this season, including 0-2 when Lopez starts. Lopez has a 6.62 ERA in four career starts vs. the Yankees. 7* NY Yankees |
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04-28-21 | A's v. Rays -159 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Yesterday was just the second loss for Oakland in their last 16 games. But considering this team still has a negative run differential on the season, I think they’re due to start “giving some back” over the coming days/weeks. The A’s haven’t lost B2B games since an 0-6 start, but I’ll call for them to do so today as they are up against Tyler Glasnow, who has a 2.05 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Rays pitching has allowed no more than three runs in any of the last four games. Going into the seventh inning of yesterday’s game, Tampa Bay was 0 for its last 26 with runners in scoring position. That seems rather unfathomable. But Joey Wendle snapped that streak with a two-out single and that insurance run proved to be the difference in a 4-3 victory. I think the Rays hitters are going to turn things around today against Cole Irvin, whose two wins this year were against Baltimore and Detroit (two of the AL’s worst teams). Irvin was shaky in his first two starts of 2021, which were against Houston, as he allowed four runs both times. The A’s have been pretty fortunate in going 5-1 in one-run games thus far. That’s the second best record in one-run games in all of baseball (KC is 6-1). They won the opener here in Tampa 2-1 on Monday despite only three hits in the game. So the offense has produced just five runs and 11 hits in two games. That sounds ideal for Glasnow, who did allow five runs his last time out, but that was despite giving up only five hits and having 10 strikeouts. In his first four starts, Glasnow allowed just two runs in 24 ⅔ IP. He has 46 K’s in 30 ⅔ IP this season. 8* Tampa Bay |
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04-27-21 | Marlins v. Brewers -154 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): I was stunned with what happened to the Brewers Monday (as I’m sure they were!) as they lost 8-0 in the series opener with Miami. On the mound, the Brew Crew had Corbin Burnes, who had allowed all of one run (total!) in his first four starts. Burnes allowed just one through five innings last night, but then things fell apart in the sixth when he gave up four. His teammates look to bounce back tonight with Adrian Houser getting the start. Since starting the season 1-3, Milwaukee has not dropped B2B games and I don’t think they will here. Interestingly, the Brewers have yet to face a left-handed starter here in 2021. That’ll change tonight when Miami sends southpaw Daniel Castano to the bump. The last time Castano pitched, I faded him and the Marlins and that turned out to be a successful bet. Castano lost to the Giants, 3-0, as he gave up all three runs in the first inning and lasted only five. In two starts this year, both against SF, Castano has only two strikeouts and four walks. That’s not impressive at all. The Brewers’ lineup had its chances last night, but left five runners stranded and each of the first three innings ended with a double play. Miami hitters struck out 15 times last night, so I like Houser’s chances here. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in all four of his starts thus far, though it should be pointed out he’s yet to last more than a full five innings. The Brewers have been getting excellent starting pitching to this point, which made last night’s result all the more shocking. The Marlins were batting a collective .192 their L7 games before last night’s win. Brewers’ opponents have scored three runs or less in 14 of 22 games this season. It’s been 10 days since Miami won B2B games. 10* Milwaukee |
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04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves -175 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
7* Atlanta (7:10 ET): This is the second series of the season between these teams. The first saw the Braves take two of three at Wrigley Field as they won the series opener 5-2 before an exchange of 13-4 wins. Immediately following that series, the Cubs swept the Mets and then beat Milwaukee 15-2 in a series opener. At that point, the Cubbies had not only won four in a row at home, but also had scored 13+ runs in three of their last seven games overall. But they’ve lost each of the last two days (both to the Brewers at home) and were shut out 9-0 on Sunday. Atlanta also had a rough Sunday. They were shut out twice, losing 5-0 and 7-0 in a doubleheader vs. Arizona. Even worse is that they could only manage one hit in the two games! Arizona’s Madison Bumgarner won’t get credit for a no-hitter, as it was only a seven inning game, but a no-hitter very much happened to the Braves in Game 2 Sunday. They’d only been shutout one other time this season (prior to yday) and had won two of three since that last series with the Cubs. Let’s just chalk Sunday up as “one of those days.” Facing Zach Davies, the Braves hitters should have a big bounce back game here. Davies, the Cubs’ starter for Monday, has an 8.80 ERA and 2.086 WHIP in four starts. The lone time he’s started on the road, Davies was charged with seven runs in 1 ⅔ IP. He also allowed four runs in four innings when he faced Atlanta. The Braves will counter with Charlie Morton today. He’s had two strong starts recently where he went six innings and allowed just one run. The last one was against the Yankees and Morton allowed only three hits. The Cubs are averaging only 2.2 runs per game and hitting a collective .197 on the road. 7* Atlanta |
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04-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers -104 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:10 ET): The Tigers have lost 9 of 10 and especially worrisome is the fact they’ve been held to two runs or less in each of the last eight losses. They were shut out again on Sunday, 4-0, which was their third straight loss to the Royals. But that puts Detroit in the exact same situation I found Cleveland in yesterday - trying to avoid the ignominy of being a home team swept in a four-game series. I took the Indians and they won 7-3 over the Yankees Sunday. That’s what I’m hoping for from the Tigers today. Helping the home team’s cause here is the fact they have Spencer Turnbull starting. His only previous start, on 4/21, happens to be the Tigers’ only win in the last nine games. Turnbull went five innings and allowed just one run on two hits against Pittsburgh. It’ll be a tougher test this time, but I should mention the fact that going into yesterday, the Kansas City lineup was averaging only 2.8 runs per game with a .177 batting average on the road. They haven’t exactly been hitting the cover off the ball in this series either. If there was ever a time for the Tigers’ offense to wake up, it would be facing the kind of starter they’ll see today. Brad Keller will go here for KC and he brings in a 12.00 ERA/2.583 WHIP from his first four outings. Last time out marked the second time that Keller failed to escape the second inning and gave up 5+ runs. Somehow he has a 2-2 team start record, but that’s in no way indicative of how he’s pitched so far. He retired just five of the 13 batters he faced last Tuesday. Look for the Tigers to avoid the sweep. 10* Detroit. |
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04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -117 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (7:08 ET): This is an absurdly low price on the Dodgers at home. I know they’ve struggled a bit lately, losing four of six including two of three to the Padres in this series. But they won yesterday, 5-4, thereby avoiding what would have been their first three-game losing streak of the season. This series is the first of the year that the Dodgers have lost two games. They still own the best record in all of MLB (15-6) as well as the top run differential (+33). I won’t hesitate to lay this short price with them on “Sunday Night Baseball.” I suppose the Padres must be respected, especially with Joe Musgrove on the mound. Musgrove has a 1.04 ERA and 0.538 WHIP through four starts, including the first no-hitter in Padres history back on April 9th. He’s allowed just three in 26 innings so far, however this will be the first time Musgrove has seen the Dodgers, whose offense will be looking to break out after collecting 12 hits on Saturday. In three career starts vs. LA, Musgrove is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA. The Dodgers counter with Dustin May, who has a 2.94 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in his three starts this season. May’s last start was his worst to date, but it came on the road in an unfamiliar setting (Seattle). The Dodgers are 90-35 at Chavez Ravine the L3 seasons, including 7-2 this year. Opposing teams are averaging only 2.8 runs per game here this season and San Diego has been held to three runs or fewer in five of the last eight games. They don’t have more than eight hits in any of those eight games. 10* LA Dodgers |
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04-24-21 | Phillies -170 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:10 ET): The Phillies let one slip away Friday night as they lost the series opener 5-4 here at Coors Field. They allowed the Rockies to score a run in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings to complete the comeback, with the difference being Raimel Tapia’s walk off HR. While certainly a disappointing result for a team that’s now dropped 7 of 10, Philadelphia looks to have a significant advantage in tonight’s starting pitching matchup with Aaron Nola on the bump. I’ll call for them to bounce back Saturday. Nola comes in sporting a 2.19 ERA and 0.973 WHIP in four starts. The Phillies are 3-1 with him on the mound. He’s off his best start to date, which was a complete-game shutout of the Cardinals on Sunday where he allowed just two hits and had a 10-0 KW rate. Nola has allowed 3 ER or less in all four of his starts and going back to last year, has done the same in 12 of his previous 15 trips to the mound. Coors Field isn’t the easiest place to pitch, but I believe Nola will handle himself just fine here. The Rockies lineup has the lowest OBP (.277) in the entire National League entering Saturday. Now Colorado is 7-6 at home thus far (as opposed to 0-6 on the road) and we all know their offensive production jumps here at Coors. But the problem is that the opposition also typically gets the same boost. That’s what I think will happen with the Philly hitters tonight facing Antonio Senzatela, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in his four starts thus far. Now Senzatela has had two quality outings here at home. But he also got roughed up twice by the Dodgers, allowing 12 runs in just six innings. The Phillies may not be the Dodgers, but they’ll get to Senzatela nonetheless and earn a measure of revenge for last night’s tough loss. 8* Philadelphia |
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04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:20 ET): I like the Braves quite a bit here as they should benefit from an off-day. They went 3-2 on the recently completed road trip, taking two of three from the Cubs and then splitting with the Yankees. Now it's a matter of getting things going at home where they are only 3-4 this season. But they are 75-48 at Truist Park since the start of the 2019 season, so I wouldn’t be worried about the slow start. In fact, their lineup is producing a full 6.0 runs per game here at home. Arizona not only played yesterday, but had to go to extra innings to defeat Cincinnati in a wild 14-11 game. That gave the D’backs a three-game sweep over a team that had previously been red hot and they’ve won four in a row overall. But I say the win streak stops tonight as I do not have a ton of faith in this ballclub, despite its 5-0 record as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They are still below .500 and have to be getting a little road weary as 14 of their first 19 games have come away from home. This will be the eighth straight road game. Atlanta starter Huascar Ynoa does not have a win yet, but he looked very good in his lone home start. Facing Miami, he gave up just one run on three hits (in 6 IP) and had 10 strikeouts. He’s demonstrated good control thus far and you should disregard his last outing as it was windy at Wrigley Field. Arizona’s Luke Weaver may have better overall numbers than Ynoa, but on the road he has a 6.51 ERA and 1.241 WHIP. He allowed four runs in four innings (at Washington) his last time out. If Ronald Acuna Jr makes his return to the Braves lineup tonight, that would sweeten the pot even more. 10* Atlanta |
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04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants -146 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (9:45 ET): I won with Miami yesterday afternoon as they blanked the Orioles 3-0. I said “I don’t think it’ll take many runs to win” and that turned out to be correct as starter Trevor Rogers was even better than I expected. He went a career high seven innings, struck out eight and didn’t allow a single runner to get past second base. But going from facing lowly Baltimore at home to San Francisco on the road is a step up in class for the Marlins this weekend and they’re obviously NOT going to have Rogers on the mound tonight. The Giants lost yesterday as they failed to finish what could have been a three-game sweep in Philadelphia. They’d won the first two games of that series in very different fashion, 2-0 and 10-7, before going down 6-5. After falling behind early, 3-0, the Giants rallied for four runs in the top of the seventh to take the lead. But they allowed the Phillies to tie the game in the bottom half of that inning, then win on a Andrew Knapp single in the bottom of the ninth. While off a 3-3 trip and 6-6 overall on the road this year, the Giants now return home where they are 5-1 including 3-0 as a favorite of -125 to -175. They’ve allowed just 2.2 rpg here and will send Aaron Sanchez to the bump in search of his first win of 2021. While Sanchez has an 0-3 TSR, he has a 2.45 ERA and allowed just one run when he faced Miami last week. Daniel Castano was more fortunate when he allowed just one run in his start in last week’s series (Miami won 4-1), but I don’t see him getting much run support tonight as Starling Marte remains out of the lineup. The Giants have lost B2B games just one time so far. 8* San Francisco |
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04-22-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox -165 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
7* Boston (7:10 ET): These teams have pretty similar records (Red Sox are 12-7, Mariners are 11-7), but the respective run differentials paint a much different picture as Boston is an AL-best +27 while Seattle has actually been outscored (-3) on the season. The Red Sox did have a two-game win streak snapped by Toronto here at Fenway Wednesday while Seattle had the day off. But in a battle of unbeaten starters, I’m siding with the home team. Surprisingly, the Red Sox are just 6-6 at Fenway thus far. It’s a 6-1 road record that’s more responsible for them being tied with Oakland for the best overall record in the American League. They are 3-0 in Nick Pivetta starts and will have him on the bump again tonight. Pivetta’s WHIP (1.636) is a little higher than what you want to see and he’s gotten plenty of run support thus far. But Seattle has never faced him and this is a lineup that’s been shutout twice in its last four games. They had just one hit in Tuesday’s 1-0 loss to the Dodgers. The Mariners’ starter for this series opener will be Justin Dunn. There are some similarities to Pivetta here as Dunn has also had some control issues and has never faced tonight’s opponents. Dunn also has a 2-0 TSR. He looked good his last time out, but that was against Baltimore. It’s also difficult to look past the EIGHT walks he issued in his first start of the season. Since opening 0-3, the Red Sox are 12-4 and have lost B2B games only one time. The Mariners are just 17-40 in their L57 games at Fenway. 7* Boston |
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04-21-21 | Orioles v. Marlins -153 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:10 ET): This series got underway yesterday with Baltimore winning 7-5. For the Orioles, that was a little bit of payback for last season when they were swept by Miami, losing all four times they played. They won yday despite three errors and getting outhit. They came into the game with an 8-26 all-time record vs the Marlins, their worst win percentage against any team in either league. Obviously, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the home team bounce back here and I think they will. Trevor Rogers will toe the rubber here for Miami. Through three starts, he’s averaging an impressive 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s fourth best in the National League. A former 1st round draft choice (2017), Rogers has allowed 2 ER or less in all three of his starts thus far. His best outing came on April 10th when he threw six shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Mets and finished with 10 strikeouts. He won’t have to face Anthony Santander today as the Orioles’ RF exited last night’s game with an injury. The Marlins are still without Starling Marte, who is perhaps their best all-around player, however I still think their lineup can get to O’s starter Bruce Zimmerman. Save for a shutout loss Sunday, the Marlins have scored at four runs in seven of the last eight games and they’ve scored six or more four times. A big key here is that the Fish are averaging 7.5 runs this season in games where they face a left-handed starter. I don’t think it’ll take many runs to win this one as Baltimore has been held to three runs or fewer eight times already. 8* Miami |
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04-20-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals -124 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals got embarrassed at home last night, losing 12-5 to a Cardinals team they took two of three from in St. Louis last week. Interestingly enough, their two losses to the Redbirds this season have both been really ugly. (The other was 14-3). But just like they bounced back from the previous one (with a 6-0 win), I expect them to do well tonight. Neither starter has performed well yet this season, but the Cardinals’ overall inconsistency (haven’t won B2B games in 12 days) sticks out. Washington’s Pat Corbin has a 21.33 ERA and 3.002 WHIP after two starts. That’s the bad news. The good news is that there’s only one way for those numbers to go from here. He exited after only two innings his last time out, but not before being charged with 10 runs (allowed 3 HRs). His first start wasn’t much better as he allowed six runs, albeit on just six hits. So why the endorsement for tonight? Well, St. Louis is just 1-4 this season after scoring 6+ runs the last time and they’ve been held to three runs or less in four of those games (shutout twice). The Nats are also 2-0 this season after giving up 10+ runs. They face Adam Wainwright, whose three starts have resulted in a 7.10 ERA and 1.894 WHIP. The lone one on the road saw him get absolutely hammered for six runs in 2 ⅔ innings. The Cardinals hit five home runs yesterday, a feat they cannot count on regularly occurring, so look for a relatively “silent night” at the plate from them and the home team to bounce back from an embarrassing loss. 10* Washington |
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04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
10* San Diego (10:05 ET): The Padres came into the 2021 season with incredible expectations and I’m a little impressed that they haven’t collapsed under the weight of them. Remember that Fernando Tatis Jr missed about two weeks with an injury and hasn’t played particularly well when in the lineup. But the team is now 10-7 after salvaging a game with the Dodgers on Sunday. I think “brighter times” are ahead for a San Diego team that should be one of the National League’s best clubs. Not only is Milwaukee off an extra innings loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but they head to the West Coast without Christian Yelich (2018 MVP), Kolten Wong and Lorenzo Cain. This team is not hitting well as four regulars are below .200 and the team has scored just 66 runs in 15 games. So look for the Brewers to REALLY struggle at the plate tonight as they must face Joe Musgrove, who has a 0.47 ERA and 0.474 WHIP through three starts, including a no-hitter. So far, Musgrove has allowed just ONE run in 19 IP and has a 24-2 KW ratio. The Brew Crew counter with Brandon Woodruff, who’s off to a fine start to the season himself. But it’s not as good as Musgrove’s and he’s facing a tougher lineup today. Given their lack of hitting, Milwaukee probably should have even fewer runs scored this year. The absences from the lineup are significant and I think too tough to overcome. It was almost two years ago, but the last time the Brewers came to Petco Park, they got swept. SD is 26-10 L36 as a home favorite and 18-8 L26 series openers. 10* San Diego |
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04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels -196 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -196 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
7* LA Angels (9:35 ET): The Angels are certainly well-rested as they head into tonight’s series opener with the division rival Rangers. They had two games with the Twins postponed over the weekend due to COVID-19 (issue was with Minnesota). While that had to be a bit disappointing considering the Halos took the series opener 10-3, they’ll gladly take the time off. Overall, it’s an 8-5 start to the season and they are among the league leaders in runs scored this season. I envision an easy win over the last place Rangers. Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb, who were scheduled to pitch Saturday and Sunday, will be skipped in the rotation so that Dylan Bundy can make his regularly scheduled start tonight. Bundy has arguably been the Angels’ best pitcher in the early going, though he does not have a win. But he has a 3.32 ERA and 1.053 WHIP through three starts and has been successful in the past vs. Texas with a 5-1 record and 2.91 ERA in nine previous appearances (seven starts). Bundy has turned in three quality starts so far and has 22 strikeouts in 19 IP. This line has definitely been steamed up. But for the reasons listed above (Angels’ rest, Bundy), it’s easy to understand why that is. Plus, the Rangers are off a three-game series in Baltimore where they managed just four runs! They did win yesterday 1-0, but it’s difficult to win that way. Not only have they scored just 1 run each of the L2 days, the Rangers have already been shutout three times this season. Starter Kohei Arihara will try to keep them in this one, but the problem is he’s backed by a bullpen that’s been horrendous on the road (7.07 ERA, 1.82 WHIP). Texas is 4-9 off a shutout win the L2 seasons. 7* LA Angels |
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04-18-21 | Indians -155 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): The Indians really let one get away yesterday. They led 2-1 going into the bottom of the ninth and could have been up by even more, were it not for Josh Naylor lining into a triple play (had runners at the corners) in the eighth inning. Naylor’s infamy would then continue when he let a routine grounder go through his legs with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, leading to the tying run. The Reds went on to win 3-2 in 10 innings, their second straight victory over the Tribe as they also won 10-3 on Friday. Looking to avoid the sweep, Cleveland sends its ace to the mound Sunday (Shane Bieber). The Indians’ lack of offensive firepower is not promising when playing in a National League park. Of course, the pitcher has to come up to bat. But with Bieber also on the mound, they should be in good shape here. Bieber went the distance his last time out, allowing only three hits and turning in a 15th straight start with at least eight strikeouts. Last year’s AL Cy Young winner now has a 2.11 ERA and 0.891 WHIP through three starts and he’s 2-0 w/ a 3.15 ERA in three career starts vs. the Reds. Wade Miley has never started a season with three consecutive wins in his big league career, but that’s what the Reds starter for Sunday is aiming for here. Miley has previously held the Giants & Pirates, two light-hitting NL teams, to just four total hits in 11 scoreless innings of work. But I’m skeptical of that continuing, even though the Indians are hardly the 1927 Yankees. The Reds are just 25-74 their L99 Interleague games as an underdog. It’s notable that they are underdogs here after winning as favorites each of the previous two days. 8* Cleveland |
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04-16-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -133 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies got an unexpected off-day when yesterday’s game with the Mets was rained out. Just as well, the Phils had lost the first three games of that series to fall to 6-6 on the year. But the season began with a 5-1 homestand and their back at Citizens Bank Park tonight to host the Cardinals, who are also 6-6. The Cards, like the Phillies, have lost four of their last five games. They were shutout on Wednesday, 6-0 by Washington, in a game where they finished with only four hits. Zach Eflin will start tonight’s game for Philadelphia. Both of his previous starts were against Atlanta. Mirroring his team’s performance, Eflin pitched much better when he started at home against the Braves than when he faced them on the road. In the home start, he allowed just one run on four hits in 7 IP. I think we’ll get something closer to that tonight as opposed to the four runs he allowed (in 6 IP) at Atlanta last weekend. The Cardinals have not faced Eflin in nearly three years. The Phillies are 35-16 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the L3 seasons, regardless of who the starter is. St. Louis is 0-2 following an off-day this season and just 10-21 in that situation since 2019. They should feel a bit fortunate to be averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road so far as they are batting a collective .206 in those games. Carlos Martinez will make his third start of the season for the Redbirds today. He hasn’t pitched all that well so far with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in two starts. The Cards lost both, including 12-1 in the one that was on the road. 10* Philadelphia |
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04-16-21 | Braves -128 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (2:20 ET): So this will be the second straight day I’m rolling with the Braves. Yesterday, they won in walk-off fashion, 7-6 over Miami. It was a much needed win as Atlanta had lost the first three games of that series, two of them in extra innings. They very nearly blew another one yesterday as a 5-4 lead turned into a 6-5 deficit in the top of the ninth. Thankfully, they were able to rally for two (runs) of their own in the bottom half of the inning with Dansby Swanson’s RBI single being the game-winner. Now the Braves move onto Chicago where they’ll face a Cubs team that is also below .500 after losing four of five. The Cubs just dropped two of three in Milwaukee before an off-day on Thursday. They actually own the worst run differential (-20) in the National League right now, which is never a good distinction. Also not good are the numbers thus far from Friday starter Zach Davies, who has an 11.04 ERA and 2.044 WHIP. He was really roughed up his last time out, giving up seven runs in 1 ⅔ IP and that was against the lowly Pirates. Atlanta will go with lefty Drew Smyly. Some would argue that ERA is an outdated, often misleading, way to measure a pitcher’s performance. Smyly’s two starts certainly make a case for that. While his ERA is 5.73, he has a 0.909 WHIP. In 11 IP, he’s allowed only nine hits, but he’s been charged with nine runs (two unearned). Three home runs haven’t helped, but Smyly has an 11-1 KW ratio. I think he’s pitched better than the ERA shows and he should do well against a Cubs lineup that is last in MLB with a 2.7 runs per game average. The Cubs are hitting a collective .163 and have eight games with five or less hits. They have the highest strikeout rate in the NL (29.4%) as well. 8* Atlanta |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (2:10 ET): The White Sox scored six runs in the first inning last night. After that, they sat back and watched starter Carlos Rodon toss a no-hitter. Rodon was actually two outs away from a perfect game when he plunked Indians catcher Roberto Perez. That HBP was the only runner Cleveland had the whole night in what ended up being an 8-0 game. I look for the home team to ride the momentum of that win and go on to take the series. They’ve held Cleveland to just five runs in three games so far. Rodon wasn’t the first White Sox starter to go the distance without allowing a run this season. Thursday starter Lance Lynn did it his last time out as well. While Lynn did allow five hits in his complete game effort, it still wound up being a 6-0 win with 11 strikeouts and zero walks. Lynn has actually yet to be charged with an earned run this season as the two he allowed in his first start were both unearned. Lynn has very good career numbers against the Indians as he’s 3-1 with a 1.06 ERA in four starts. He has 31 strikeouts in 26 IP. So expect him to pitch well today. Cleveland doesn’t have a strong lineup. They are batting a collective .195 this season and have been held to four runs or less seven times in the last 10 games. So it will take a Herculean effort from starter Anthony Civale to get it done today. Civale does have two quality starts already, but both were against Detroit. Chicago is averaging 5.2 rpg and will welcome SS Tim Anderson back in the lineup. The White Sox are 22-10 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Chi White Sox |
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04-15-21 | Red Sox v. Twins -144 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:10 ET): Yesterday’s doubleheader saw Boston win twice (3-2 and 7-1) and now they go for a four-game sweep at Target Field where the Twins are uncharacteristically struggling. Minnesota is 70-50 in all home games the L3 seasons (that includes the three losses in this series) and I just can’t see them dropping four in a row to the same team, even with the Red Sox being as hot as they are right now. You don’t see home teams get swept in four-game series all that often, at least not GOOD teams, and I’ll bet against it happening here. The Red Sox season seemingly got off to an ominous start as they were swept in three games by the lowly Orioles at Fenway Park. But since then, they’ve won nine straight! While the offense has been hot, they caught a bit of a break in the nightcap Wednesday when Twins starter Jose Berrios uncharacteristically had no control. Michael Pineda, who starts Thursday for the Twins, has a 1.64 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in two starts so far and I like him to get the job done. Minnesota hitters are a horrible 1 for 24 with RISP in this series, which tells me that they SHOULD have scored a lot more runs. Today feels like a spot where they should breakthrough as they face Garrett Richards, who had an ugly first outing (allowed six runs in two innings), then gave up two home runs his second time out. Josh Donaldson is now back in the Twins lineup. Pineda has given up just three runs in 11 IP and I look for the Twins to avoid the sweep. 8* Minnesota |
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04-15-21 | Marlins v. Braves -156 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (12:20 ET): The Braves are hoping to avoid a most embarrassing fate, that being a four-game sweep at home. Two of the three games in this series with the Marlins have been decided in extra innings. The Braves really let one slip away Monday when they blew a late 3-1 lead and lost 5-3 in 10 innings. Last night was a different story as they fell behind early (5-0 going into the home half of the 3rd) and then their rally was “in vain.” It should be pointed out that the Braves were massive favorites (-256) on the money line yesterday. They also lost 14-8 on Tuesday. Now that I’ve told you how BAD things have gone for the home team in this series, I’m going to sell you on TAKING THEM today. Home teams don’t often get swept in four-game series and I don’t think it’ll happen here. Atlanta should have won Monday’s opener and the fact they’ve now lost twice in extras should tell you that this has been a competitive series despite one team winning all three games. The Braves are normally a good home team (74-48 L3 seasons) and they are still 24-11 vs. Miami since the start of 2019 as well. In fact, Miami has NEVER swept a four-game series against Atlanta in franchise history! Ronald Acuna is hitting the cover off the ball for the Braves and I expect that to continue today against southpaw Trevor Rogers, who is highly unlikely to replicate his last start where he shutout the Mets for six innings. Atlanta counters with Ian Anderson, who has a 1.04 ERA in two previous appearances vs. Miami. 8* Atlanta |
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04-13-21 | Tigers v. Astros -178 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -178 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): The Astros suffered a rather embarrassing setback last night. They fell 6-2 to the Tigers as starter Zack Greinke really struggled, giving up all six runs in just 4 ⅔ innings of work. The chances of losing to the lowly Tigers twice in a row, at home, seems small though. So we’re backing the hosts on Tuesday as they’d gotten off to a great start to the season before losing three in a row, all here at home. They still have a +19 run differential, which is second best in the entire American League. Detroit, now 4-6 on the young season, has the second WORST run differential among AL teams at -21. So as the odds indicate, this is a mismatch on paper. Last night was the Tigers’ first road win of 2021 as they’d been swept in Cleveland over the weekend. Over the last three seasons, they are 37-76 away from Comerica Park, including 17-32 as an underdog of +125 to +175. Last night was also just the second win by the Tigers in the L11 meetings w/ Houston. The Astros should be highly motivated to bounce back from such an embarrassing defeat. A couple of late solo homers allowed Houston to avoid being shutout last night, which would have been REALLY embarrassing. But it should be noted they were 0 for 11 with RISP. Look for more timely hitting tonight against Matthew Boyd, whose strikeout to walk ratio has steadily decreased over the past two seasons. The Astros counter with Jake Odorizzi, who will be making his 2021 debut. Odorizzi has not pitched much since a career-year in 2019 with Minnesota. Detroit has NOT hit well so far, so this is an ideal first trip to the mound. 8* Houston |
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04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves -153 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Phillies started the season by sweeping three games from the Braves (in Philadelphia). Now the Braves can return the favor here in Atlanta. The home team was an 8-1 winner on Friday, then 5-4 on Saturday. Atlanta has now won four straight since opening the year 0-4 and they’ve allowed four runs or fewer in six games this season. There wasn’t much scoring after the first inning yday, but Freddie Freeman was the difference with three RBIs including the game-winner in the 7th. Drew Smyly will be making his first home start of the season for the Braves tonight. He went six innings and allowed just two runs on four hits his last time out. Unfortunately, the team lost that game 6-5 (to Washington) as the bullpen blew the lead. But Smyly had eight strikeouts and looked much better than Matt Moore did in his first start for the Phillies. Last Monday, Moore could make it only 3 ⅓ innings and had control issues (four walks). The Phils won that game 5-3, but they won’t win many Moore starts if he continues to pitch like that. The Atlanta bullpen has been outstanding so far, save for that game Smyly started. This is a battle of southpaw starters and that favors the Braves, who are 32-19 since the start of 2019 when facing a left-hander. Philadelphia is now 9-24 when priced between +125 and +175 on the road the L3 seasons. Atlanta is 43-18 as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Look for the Braves to return the favor for the sweep earlier in the season. 10* Atlanta |
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04-10-21 | Rockies v. Giants -173 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): In yesterday’s analysis (when I told you to take them), I talked about how the Giants’ pitching has been quite good so far this season. Sure enough, Friday starter Johnny Cueto stepped up and was one out shy of delivering a complete game. Cueto allowed just one run on four hits in his 8 ⅔ innings of work. While it took until the 7th inning for him to get any run support, San Fran did win the game 3-1. I expect them to win again Saturday, possibly by a much larger margin. It’s now six straight games where Giants’ pitching has allowed four runs or fewer. Trying to extend that streak to seven will be Saturday starter Logan Webb. While his first start of 2021 was hardly one of the best we’ve seen from the Giants’ rotation thus far, he did allow only three runs in 5 ⅓. The problem was that he got zero run support and thus it ended up being a 4-0 loss to Seattle. Something else I discussed in yday’s analysis was the Rockies’ perennial offensive decline away from home. Well, yesterday was their first road game and we all saw what happened. Webb should be fine here. It would be nice if the Giants could get their offense on track. Despite winning four of their last six games, they’ve topped three runs just one time in that stretch! On Saturday, they’ll be facing Chi Chi Gonzalez, who makes his first start of 2021 for the Rockies. His 2020 was not impressive. Over four outings, Gonzalez posted an 8.57 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. The two road starts were even worse (11.13 ERA, 2.297 WHIP). While Gonzalez didn’t factor into either decision, somehow the Rockies beat the Giants TWICE last year when he was on the mound. Don’t see it happening again. Colorado is only 42-70 L112 road games. Excluding ONE inning, Giants pitching has allowed all of 17 runs so far. 8* San Francisco |
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04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants -155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:35 ET): This series opener sets up well for the Giants. It’s their home opener. They also had Thursday (yesterday) off while the Rockies were busy entertaining the D’backs. While Colorado won yday’s game rather easily (7-3), it’s still a disadvantage when the other team is coming off an off-day. This will mark the Rockies’ 1st game outside of Coors Field this season and it’s certainly reasonable to expect their offensive production to dip dramatically, as it typically does every other season on the road. The Giants have started 3-3. They just took two of three from the heavily hyped Padres in San Diego. They did so despite never scoring more than three runs in any of the three games. That speaks to the pitching. I had them in Monday’s series opener. Note that SF has not allowed more than four runs in a game since Opening Day, a game which they blew a 6-1 lead and lost in extra innings. Take away the one disastrous six-run inning they allowed in that game and the Giants have allowed just 16 runs the rest of the year. Johnny Cueto will start Friday’s game. Cueto went 5 ⅔ innings his first time out and allowed only three runs in a 6-3 win. He is 9-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 18 career starts vs. the Rockies. As per usual, Colorado’s offensive production dropped by a full run per game when on the road last season. They are just 42-69 away from Coors Field the L2 seasons. I don’t like starter Gomber either; he had seven walks in his first outing and gave up three runs in three innings. 10* San Francisco |
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04-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -147 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Phillies suffered their first loss of the season on Tuesday as they went down 8-4 at the hands of the Mets. They’d previously beaten NY 5-3 on Monday and swept the Braves to open 2021. Considering how tough the NL East is supposed to be, this is a pretty impressive start. The Phils can still notch a second series win if they come out ahead this afternoon and I think they will do just that behind starter Aaron Nola. The Mets won yday on the back of a pair of two-run homers as well as drawing eight walks. But don’t look for that to happen here against Nola, who has had their number in the past with an 8-2 record in 3.30 ERA in 16 career matchups. Nola also looked sharp on Opening Day when he tossed 6 ⅔ solid innings against the Braves. He allowed only two runs on six hits and finished with a 6-0 KW rate. Another encouraging sign for the Phillies so far in 2021 is that their bullpen appears to be much improved (save for yday). Last season, it was the worst in the league. But bullpen performance can fluctuate wildly from season-to-season, so the regression to the mean is not surprising. Southpaw David Peterson makes his first start of the year for the Mets today. He had a pretty good rookie season in 2020, although not when he faced the Phillies as he gave up five runs in only two innings. He didn’t look very good in the Spring either. The fact that the Mets got eight runs yesterday despite only five hits was certainly unusual and owed to their patience at the plate (those eight walks). But I don’t see them having that kind of success vs. Nola. 8* Philadelphia |
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04-06-21 | Cardinals v. Marlins -125 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
10* Miami (6:40 ET): The Marlins dropped yday’s series opener to the Cardinals by a score of 4-1. Their offense has been scuffling to start the season, but should get back on track Tuesday as they are set to face John Gant, who has not started a game since 2018. Gant has made 81 appearances as a reliever the last two seasons and generally has been more effective in that role. As a starter, he’s just 6-10 w/ a 3.99 ERA. The Cardinals may have to rely more on their bullpen in this game and that group hasn’t been particularly effective (5.82 ERA) so far. Miami is 1-3, including a loss on Opening Day when they had tonight’s starter Sandy Alcantara on the mound. But don’t blame Alcantara for that one. He did his job, pitching six shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ seven strikeouts. The Marlins lost that game 1-0. Alcantara’s Opening Day performance came on the heels of a 2020 season where he posted a 3.00 ERA in seven starts. I am anticipating he’ll pitch well this evening. In the Marlins’ one victory this season, they scored 12 runs. Look for the offense to get back on track today. They have too many veteran hitters in the lineup to continue struggling at the plate like they did yesterday and on Opening Day. Cardinals’ pitching allowed 27 runs in the first three games of the season while their offense scored just one run after the first inning yesterday. I think this is a big win for the home team, who is 21-10 L31 as a favorite. 10* Miami |
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04-04-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox -165 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:10 ET): The Red Sox certainly did not expect to be swept in their first series of the season. But that’s on the verge of happening here. Considering how Baltimore was viewed coming into 2021, it would be quite embarrassing for the home team to drop three in a row at Fenway Park. Thursday’s opener was rained out and then Boston managed very little offense in the two games that were played. They’ve scored a grand total of two runs so far on only nine hits. It’s not as if the Red Sox didn’t have their chances yesterday. They were 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position though and that killed any hope of victory. Friday, they had no answers at the plate for Orioles’ starter John Means. Defensive issues have hurt the Red Sox in both games. But I believe they’ll bounce back and avoid the sweep Sunday. It boils down to having little to no confidence in a Baltimore team that is projected to finish with the fewest wins in the American League this season. Boston will send Garrett Richards to the mound today. The veteran had an “up and down” 2020 for San Diego, but the Padres ended up winning his final three starts for them. It’s not as if the Orioles have produced much offense in the first two games, so this is somewhat of an “ideal” first start for Richards in a Red Sox uniform. Baltimore counters with Bruce Zimmerman, who has just two career big-league starts. One was a win against the Red Sox. However, I’m “hanging my hat” on the fact Boston is 37-14 after losing the first two games of a series. 8* Boston |
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04-02-21 | Giants v. Mariners -122 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
9* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners stunned the Giants last night with a six-run rally in the eighth and then won the game 8-7, in 10 innings. It was a walk-off walk that got them the victory, perhaps an apropos way to win a game where they had only five hits (yet scored eight runs). As strange and as fortunate a win as that was, I’m on the M’s tonight as that was a very difficult Opening Day loss for a Giants team that I don’t think is going to be very good. As you likely know, a massive gap exists between the top two and bottom three in the NL West this season. The Giants find themselves on the WRONG side of that gap and the best they can hope for in 2021 is a distant third-place finish behind the Dodgers and Padres. They’ll turn to Johnny Cueto for the second game of the season. Cueto’s best days are clearly behind him. He enters his sixth season with the Giants having posted a 5.40 ERA in 2020 and he looked REAL shaky in Spring Training with a 9.82 ERA in three starts. Yusei Kikuchi gets the nod here for Seattle. Originally it was going to be James Paxton, but he’s been bumped back in the six-man rotation. The Giants have never faced Kikuchi, an advantage for the pitcher, and he’s off a fairly solid Spring where he allowed only three runs in 8 ⅓ innings of work. Obviously, last night’s effort by the Giants’ bullpen was not inspiring and it’s highly unlikely that they’ll hit 4 HR’s (all solo) again like they did yday. 9* Seattle |
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04-02-21 | White Sox v. Angels -114 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (9:38 ET): The Angels stormed back to beat the White Sox yesterday by a score of 4-3. It was the team’s two key players - Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani - responsible for the two-run rally in the home half of the eighth inning. Trout tied the game with a single, then Ohtani later scored the go-ahead run on an Albert Pujols’ single. I look for there to be a bit of a “carryover” effect for the Halos going into tonight’s game when they send southpaw Andrew Heaney to the mound. Heaney is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in five previous starts against the White Sox. These teams did not play in LY’s truncated season, so it’ll be Chicago’s first time seeing Heaney since September 2019. Each of the L3 times he’s started against the White Sox, LA came out ahead. Two of those were quality starts by the left-hander and I anticipate he’ll pitch well tonight. The White Sox managed only seven hits last night and struck out a total of 10 times. The Halos are now 6-2 their L8 vs. the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel will start opposite Heaney here. Keuchel has had plenty of past success vs. LA as his career record against them is 12-2 with a 3.36 ERA. Keuchel had a fairly solid 2020 season, but he went a full six innings only three times. I know a lot is expected from Chicago this year, but right now they seem a bit overvalued and it will be tough to shake last night’s defeat. They are just 6-23 their L29 games in Anaheim. 10* LA Angels |
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04-02-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox -170 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
7* Boston (2:10 ET): So Mother Nature pushed Opening Day back for these teams as they were rained out yesterday. The Red Sox may not get back to the heights of their recent past, but they should definitely improve in 2021 under new skipper Alex Cora. Baltimore, on the other hand, appears to be headed for another dreadful season. They have a far lower projected win total than the Red Sox, who are expected to finish fourth in the AL East this season. In fact, the O’s season win total of 64.0 is the lowest in the entire AL. Nathan Eovaldi will get the starting nod for Boston today, in place of Eduardo Rodriguez, who is said to have a “dead arm.” Seeing as how health is a major concern in the Red Sox rotation right now, a lot will be expected of Eovaldi early on in the season. He was 4-2 w/ a 3.72 ERA in 2020 and finished strong by allowing 1 ER or fewer in each of his final four starts. Two of those were against the Orioles, one of them seeing him toss six shutout innings here at Fenway Park. There’s really no way to sugarcoat the Orioles’ chances here in 2021. Even a .500 finish seems highly unlikely despite them going 25-35 in the abbreviated 2020 season and finishing ahead of the Red Sox. Baltimore looks WORSE on paper this year and I don’t believe today’s starter (John Means) is going to be able to carry his club to victory in his 1st career Opening Day start. The O’s were 2-8 in Means’ starts last season including 0-6 the first six. He lasted only three innings the one time he faced Boston. 7* Boston |
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04-01-21 | Rangers v. Royals -153 | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (4:10 ET): Neither of these teams are expected to be very good this year. But Kansas City, even though their season win total dropped, is expected to be better and at least isn’t projected to finish last in their division (Detroit is). Texas has the lowest projected number of wins in the AL West as they went 22-38 in the truncated 2020 season and were outscored by a MLB-worst 88 runs. Starting on the road is not good for the Rangers as they are just 39-72 away from home since the start of the 2018 season, including a 14-36 record when priced between +125 and +175 as they are here. The Royals haven’t been viewed as “competitive” since 2017, but this could be the year they make a move back to .500. They have some talent in the everyday lineup, led by Jorge Soler, who led the American League in home runs back in 2019. The club will hand the ball to the underrated Brad Keller on Opening Day, hoping he can replicate LY’s form when made nine starts and didn’t give up a single run in five of them. The Rangers are not expected to hit well in 2021 and I look for Keller to induce a lot of ground ball outs here. Because of last season’s scheduling, these teams haven’t met in almost two years. KC is a lot better now than they were back in 2019 when they dropped five of seven to the Rangers. There are injury concerns in the Texas bullpen coming into the year and Opening Day starter Kyle Gibson had a fairly rough 2020, save for a couple starts late in the year against Houston. The Royals led the Cactus League (Spring Training) w/ a 16-8 record and ended last regular season on a 12-6 run. They are the call here. 10* Kansas City |
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10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): The Dodgers have brought the Rays to the brink of elimination. I’m going to say they end this on Tuesday and win the franchise’s 1st World Series trophy since 1988 (Orel Hershiser). My last WS play was of course on the Dodgers (in Game 3) and it was a *10* Game of the Year winner. Had they been able to hold on in Game 4 (lost in final at-bat), then this series would already be over. I think we all knew they were the superior team coming into the series. Nothing over the L5 games has changed my opinion. Game 5 saw LA jump on Rays’ starter Tyler Glasnow early. Clayton Kershaw & the Dodgers’ bullpen made it hold up as TB was held to four runs or less for the 11th time in 13 games. That’s just not enough offense to defeat what was the highest scoring ballclub in all of baseball during the regular season. Now the Rays have obviously won twice in this series and both times they did put up a good number of runs (6 and 8). But their offense remains entirely too dependent on the HR ball. Over 70% of the Rays’ total runs scored this postseason have come via the home run. The Game 6 pitching matchup is the same as it was for Game 2. Now Game 2 was a Tampa Bay victory and Tony Gonsolin, who Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts used more as an “opener” was only left in for 1 ⅓ innings. I expect him to go longer this time. Blake Snell had more control issues in Game 2 for the Rays, walking four batters for a second straight outing. The Dodgers certainly don’t want to “let” this series get to a Game 7. They had “only” six hits on Sunday. After a game w/ six (or fewer hits) this postseason, the Dodgers are 5-1 their next game. There have been only four times all season that LA has lost when having 6 or less the previous game. 10* LA Dodgers |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers -148 v. Rays | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:08 ET): The World Series is now tied at a game apiece after the Rays took Game 2 by a score of 6-4. The Dodgers remain heavily favored to win the series and off a loss, a role they are 16-5 in this season, I am going big on them. This was the best team in baseball during the regular season - both by record and run differential - and it wasn’t even close. After going with a bullpen game in Game 2, they now hand the baseball to Walker Buehler, who has a 10-2 TSR in 2020 and threw six shutout innings his last time out. Despite six runs in Game 2, I still have my doubts about the Rays’ ability to score on a consistent basis. Tampa Bay will go with Charlie Morton. The team has won his L5 starts including Game 7 of the ALCS where Morton pitched 5 ⅔ scoreless frames. He didn’t allow a run in 10 ⅔ innings of work in the ALCS and he’s allowed 1 ER or less in his five postseason starts. That makes for a worthy adversary, but the bottom line is that the Dodgers are still the better team with the better offense. Before Game 2, the Rays had scored 4 runs or less in 9 of 10 games, the lone exception being when they scored 5. In other words, Morton will have to be near perfect for his team to have a chance here. I don’t see that happening. Wednesday was basically a “must-win” for the Rays as the Dodgers made it a bullpen game. Sure enough, they got to “opener” Tony Gonsolin early with a Brandon Lowe home run. Quietly, one of the Rays’ best relievers - Nick Anderson - has not looked great this postseason. He’s been scored on in five straight appearances and six of eight playoff games. Buehler has the better numbers compared to Morton over the course of the season, including a 1.76 ERA his L7 starts, a stretch which has seen him give up no more than 2 ER in any one start. Tampa Bay’s offense remains far too reliant on the HR ball and Buehler has allowed only two of those in 19 postseason innings. If Game 2 was a “must-win” for the Rays, this is a “must-win” for the Dodgers and I’ll back them to get the job done. 10* LA Dodgers |
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10-17-20 | Astros +115 v. Rays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:37 ET): Though I’m personally not a big believer in the concept of “momentum,” there is no denying that this ALCS has taken a dramatic swing with the Astros winning three straight to force a Game 7. This is only the 2nd time in MLB playoff history that a team that this has happened. The other occasion was the ‘04 Red Sox, who of course made history by winning Game 7 (against the Yankees) and then went on to win the World Series. My feeling is that the Astros have outplayed the Rays in this series and they will make history again. Even when they lost the first three games, Houston was hitting the ball better than Tampa Bay. They now have 52 hits in the series, compared to only 38 for the Rays. We finally got an Over last night (that was my play!) and it’s become patently obvious that TB struggles to score when they’re not hitting home runs. Keep in mind that the Rays only managed three hits in each of their L2 games of the Yankees series. Collectively, they are hitting below .200 the L8 games. The same starters that were on the mound in Game 2 will be called up on here in Game 7. While Charlie Morton and the Rays emerged victorious in that game, 4-2, let’s not understate how well Lance McCullers pitched for Houston. He had 11 strikeouts in 7 IP, only to be foiled by giving up 2 HR’s. McCullers will heavily be leaned on here by manager Dusty Baker while Morton likely won’t go more than five innings for the Rays. It comes down to McCullers and the Astros’ offense against the Rays bullpen and I choose the former as this time I think Houston can get to Morton. They’ve been the better team in the series and deserve to win no matter what you think of them (because of the cheating scandal). 10* Houston |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -175 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (6:05 ET): At no point during this season have the Dodgers dropped three in a row. It would be very untimely for it to happen now. Down 0-2 to the Braves in the NLCS, tonight is basically a “must-win” for Dodger Blue or their season will be on the brink. This is only the fifth time all season that they’ve lost B2B games and just the third since August 13th! They were MLB’s best team in the regular season - both by record & run differential. Game 1 was a 1-1 game entering the ninth and then last night saw their bats FINALLY wake up (too little, too late) as they scored seven runs off the Braves’ bullpen. LA wins Game 3. If Atlanta has a weakness, it’s their starting pitching depth. Only one time in this 7-0 playoff run have they had to go to someone else besides Max Fried or Ian Anderson. That was Game 3 of the Miami series when they used Kyle Wright. Wright will again get the Game 3 nod for this series. While Wright was “lights out” vs. the Marlins, he still has a 4.50 ERA and 1.455 WHIP on the year. In each of the first two games of this series, the Dodgers have had the Braves’ starter in trouble early, but have failed to capitalize. That changes here. The Dodgers had won 9 in a row coming into this series. If they can win here, the Braves rotation will be put in “uncharted territory,” at least for the postseason. Clayton Kershaw was scratched yesterday in an unfortunate circumstance, so today they need a huge outing from Julio Urias, who last started a game on September 17th. Out of 10 starts this season, Urias allowed 2 ER or fewer eight times. He only gave up 5 HR’s. I just can’t see LA losing three in a row as that’s a scenario that would have been deemed unfathomable at the start of the series. 8* LA Dodgers |
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10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:40 ET): The Astros have to be wondering “how are we down 0-2 in this series?” They have outhit Tampa Bay 19-10 in the two games, including 10-4 yesterday. In fact, going back to the final two games of the Yankees series, the Rays have collected all of 16 hits in their L4 games! But most of them have been timely and/or home runs. Two costly Jose Altuve errors really burned Houston in Game 2, the first especially as it opened the door for a 3-run TB first inning. Obviously, the Astros need this game badly. Considering how they’ve outhit the Rays so far, I’ll take them. As someone who had the Rays in Game 2, I can safely say Lance McCullers outpitched Charlie Morton. Astros pitching combined for 13 strikeouts and no walks yesterday while Rays counterparts had a ratio of 8-3. Had Altuve not made that costly error in the first inning, Manuel Margot doesn’t come up to the plate with two runners on and hit a 3-run HR. Take that one pitch away and Houston would have won Game 2, 2-1. I thought the Astros’ hitters made great contact yday and could have had even more hits/scoring opportunities. Alex Bregman was a very misleading 0 for 5 at the plate as he put all five balls in play at 98 MPH or faster. After totaling just three runs in the first two games, look for the Astros to come alive tonight in Game 3. Ryan Yarbrough will start (no opener like the ALDS) and keep in mind he has not won a decision all year. Four of his last seven outings, Yarbrough has allowed 4+ runs. But the heavy burden falls on Astros’ starter Jose Urquidy, who comes in with a 3.29 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. His ALDS start wasn’t great (allowed 4 solo HR’s!), but that was also his worst outing of the year. Considering that they have hit the ball better than TB in both of the first two games, the Astros are due for a win here. 10* Houston |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays -124 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (4:07 ET): The Rays are now 11-1 following an off-day this season after their 2-1 victory in Game 1. There won’t be many more of those this year (off days, that is) but TB has to like the position that they are in right now. Unless Houston has a decided edge in starting pitching, which they don’t here for Game 2, it’s going to be tough for me to like their chances in this LCS. The Rays’ bullpen prowess is simply too difficult to ignore. After the second batter of the game (Jose Altuve) homered last night, the Astros didn’t score again. We have an all-righty starting pitching matchup for Game 2 with Lance McCullers (Houston) opposing Charlie Morton (TB). McCullers has not pitched well away from home this season. In seven starts away from home, he has a 7.57 ERA and 1.792 WHIP. The Astros are just 2-5 in those games. They did win McCullers’ lone LDS start, but note he allowed three home runs and five runs total in just four innings. Prior to that, the team had lost four straight McCullers’ starts. |
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10-11-20 | Astros v. Rays -139 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:37 ET): This series is all about revenge for the Rays. Whether they get it remains up for debate, but they surely remember losing to the Astros in five games in LY’s LDS. Houston entered 2020 with a HUGE “bullseye” on its back due to the cheating scandal, yet so far no one has been able to knock them off this postseason. Well, they did drop a game to Oakland, but they’re 5-1 overall in the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 5-2 as it needed five games to outlast the Yankees in the Division Round. I was a tad bit surprised we didn’t see Blake Snell in Game 5 Friday night for the Rays. But that works out as he can now start Game 1 of the LCS. Snell, a former Cy Young winner, has an 8-5 TSR this season w/ a 3.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His lone start vs. the Yankees wasn’t that great. In fact, it was perhaps his worst of the year as he allowed 3 HR in a loss. But that was also just the second time all year he gave up more than three runs. Pitching on five days rest, I expect this southpaw to get the job done here before handing things over to the Rays’ tremendous bullen. It took Houston awhile, but they decided on Framber Valdez as the Game 1 starter. He’s looked great of late with a 1.77 ERA and 0.787 WHIP his L3 starts. But that’s also a relatively small “sample size” and he’d given up a total of 13 runs in the two starts before that stretch. He also allowed 2 HR’s his last time out. Even though TB had just one day off between series, they are 10-1 this season following an off-day. As long as Snell does his job (I think he will!), the Rays will win Game 1. 8* Tampa Bay |
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10-09-20 | Yankees -150 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Of the four division series, this is the only one to go the distance as the Yankees fought off elimination yday by beating the Rays 5-1 in Game 4. There was no debate over who would start Game 5 for NY as Gerrit Cole has been on a sensational run, including a win in Game 1 of this series. Tampa Bay looks to be going with Tyler Glasnow, who will be pitching on even less rest than Cole as he started Game 2. I took the Cole and the Yankees in Game 1 and will do the same here in Game 5. Over his L5 starts, Cole is a perfect 5-0 and has allowed just seven runs in 34 IP. He also has a 45-5 KW ratio. In those five games, the Yankees have outscored their opponents by a stunning 52-9 margin. Considering they’ve scored 9+ runs each of the L4 Cole starts and 23 runs total against the Rays the L4 games, Cole is likely to get more than an adequate amount of run support tonight. Not that he needs it given how well he’s pitched lately, but we’ll certainly take it. The Yankees have outscored the Rays 23-19 in the series. Glasnow, who had 10 strikeouts in 5 innings, did lead TB to victory in Game 2. But that wasn’t against Cole. He still gave up four runs and two homers. There will be no benefit here of being handed an early 5-1 lead (as he was in Game 2). While Glasnow is likely to serve as an “opener,” eventually making way for Blake Snell, I’ll still “hitch my wagon” to Cole over whatever the Rays plan is on the mound. Note Glasnow couldn’t get it done opposite Cole LY in Game 5 of the ALDS (when Cole was w/ the Astros). The Yankees and Cole are simply the more proven commodity. 10* NY Yankees |
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10-08-20 | Braves -132 v. Marlins | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (2:08 ET): You can’t lose if you don’t give up any runs. That adage is simple enough, but it’s also easier said than done. However, the Braves are really taking it to heart. Now 4-0 in the postseason, three of Atlanta’s wins have come in shutout fashion. The latest was yesterday’s 2-0 triumph that puts them one win away from advancing to their first NLCS since 2001 and the days of Bobby Cox! I think it’s fair to say at this point that the Marlins just aren’t on the Braves level. Look for Atlanta to finish the sweep today. I went over Atlanta’s substantial edges on offense and in the bullpen in yday’s analysis. They obviously still ring true today. The Braves’ bullpen has allowed just ONE run in four playoff games and it was a rather meaningless one in the 8th inning of Game 1 of this series (when they were up 9-4). An offense that scored the second most runs in all of baseball during the regular season hardly even needed to show up yday, though it did slug two more HRs and now has five of those in the series. If there is one weakness with this Braves team, it is their starting pitching depth. In Game 3, for the first time this postseason, they’ll have to start someone that isn’t Max Fried or Ian Anderson. That “someone” is Kyle Wright, who had an inconsistent regular season and struggled twice vs. the Marlins. But Wright did close strong w/ B2B quality starts where he allowed just two runs and three hits in 13 IP. Miami’s Sixto Sanchez has better numbers than Wright, but he had a rough start vs. Atlanta late in the year (allowed 4 runs in 3 IP) and honestly Miami faces enough disadvantages here that Sanchez can’t overcome them alone. 10* Atlanta |
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10-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves -200 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
9* Atlanta (2:08 ET): The Braves ran their postseason record to a perfect 3-0 yesterday w/ a 9-5 win over the Marlins in Game 1 of this best of five LDS. The win very much accentuated the strengths of this Atlanta ballclub and their advantages in this series. Trailing most of the game, their excellent bullpen kept them in it and then MLB’s 2nd highest scoring offense from the regular season with a 6-run 7th inning. Miami’s bullpen, which came in with a 5.35 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the year, couldn’t get the job done. It feels like Game 1 was the Marlins’ “chance” to steal one here and they failed to do so, thanks to the aforementioned bullpen. You’ve got to remember that Miami’s regular season run differential (-41) was bottom-third in the league and easily the worst of any team in the playoffs. They also were shutout more times than any other team in baseball, which isn’t good when facing an offense of this caliber. Though they’ve been slightly more competitive this season (4-7), Miami’s head to head record vs. the Braves is just 8-22 L2 seasons and 13-36 L3 seasons. The starting pitching matchup for Game 2 will feature Ian Anderson for the Braves and Pablo Lopez for the Marlins. Both have struggled a bit this season facing the lineups they’ll see today. Lopez, who had a 6.39 ERA in three starts vs. Atlanta during the regular season, has never appeared in the postseason before. Anderson, who has allowed 5 runs in 8 ⅔ IP vs. Miami, looked great in his Rd 1 start vs. Cincinnati. He tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball vs. the Reds to improve to a 4-1 w/ a 1.82 ERA in all non-Miami starts this year. He’s allowed just six runs and 14 hits in those five starts. Even if you consider Lopez vs. Anderson to be a “wash,” Atlanta’s superiority at the plate and in the bullpen is too much for Miami to overcome. 9* Atlanta |
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10-05-20 | Yankees -144 v. Rays | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
9* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): An outstanding starting pitching matchup between two hurlers that looked great in the last round, not to mention their L4 starts respectively, headlines Game 1 of this ALDS matchup between the Yankees (who go w/ Gerrit Cole) and the Rays (who go w/ Blake Snell). Tampa Bay had the head to head edge in the regular season, winning 8 of 10 against New York, but it’s the team wearing pinstripes that’s favored to open this series and we agree with that. It’s difficult to imagine the Rays continuing to be that successful against a team like the Yankees. Injuries were a big reason why the Yankees were only 2-8 against Tampa Bay in the regular season. Aaron Judge missed six of the games, Giancarlo Stanton missed seven and DJ LeMahieu missed three. But they’re all back now and we saw what the Yankees just did to Cleveland, putting up 22 runs in two games against what was - statistically - the best rotation in all of baseball. While I don’t see NY being as successful tonight against Snell, I do think they’ll score enough to win here. Cole has allowed just four runs in his last four starts. The same is true for Snell, but Cole has won all four of his (3-1 TSR for Snell) and thrown six more innings. Incredibly, Cole’s last four starts have seen the Yankees outscore the opposition by a combined score of 43-6! Cole has a lower ERA and WHIP than Snell over the course of the season. Now fully healthy, I expect the Yanks to gain a measure of revenge for that poor regular season mark against the Rays tonight in Game 1. 9* NY Yankees |
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10-02-20 | Marlins v. Cubs -190 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -190 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
***This play was originally for Thursday. With the rain out, I've simply reposted for Friday. The pitching matchup remains the same and I still like the Cubs! 7* Chi Cubs (2:05 ET): The Miami Marlins have NEVER lost a postseason series, which has to be a very frustrating fact to all the long-suffering franchises in the sport. Keep in mind the Cubs have won just ONE World Series (2016) in the past 112 years! Prior to this season, Miami had made the playoffs just two times in its entire existence (1997, 2003) and both times it won the World Series! The Marlins picked up a surprise win here at Wrigley yday, 5-1, scoring all five runs in one inning. I look for the Cubs to draw even Thursday. What you have to keep in mind about this Marlins team is that it was outscored by 41 runs during the regular season. That’s an atrocious run differential for a playoff team and was easily the worst of the 16 teams that made it. Also, no team was shut out more times this season than were the Marlins. A rather undisciplined team at the plate, Miami appeared on its way to getting blanked again yesterday. But they “broke loose” for the one big inning and that’s all they needed. Not all the news from yday was good, however, as Starling Marte left with an apparent broken hand in the 9th inning (HBP). Kyle Hendricks pitched well for the Cubs in Game 1, but was left in the game too long. I like Game 2 starter Yu Darvish to carry the team as he had an exceptional regular season, turning in a 2.13 ERA and 0.961 WHIP. Darvish allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 12 starts and was very sharp his last time out, blanking the White Sox for seven innings. Provided the Cubs scored at least one run, Darvish had a 9-1 TSR this year (two losses were when team was shutout). Miami’s Sixto Sanchez faltered a bit down the stretch, giving up a combined nine runs in his L2 starts while lasting only seven innings. The Cubs are 6-1 this season as a home favorite of -175 or higher and 38-13 in that range the L3 seasons. 7* Chi Cubs |
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10-01-20 | Brewers v. Dodgers -225 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
6* LA Dodgers (10:05 ET): As we saw in Game 1, if Milwaukee falls behind the Dodgers, they have almost no chance of catching up. The only shot the Brew Crew has to pull an improbable upset in this series is to get the lead early and turn it over to the bullpen. Problem is, they are at a severe disadvantage in the starting pitching department and the Dodgers are just too talented. After LA took Game 1 by a score of 4-2, there’s no need to overthink this one. I look for the Dodgers to sweep and move on to the next round. The big story for Game 2 will be Clayton Kershaw’s lack of postseason success. His career numbers in the playoffs aren’t good (at least by his standard), but I think too much is being made of that right now. In the regular season, Kershaw had an 8-2 team start record to go along with a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Not that this hasn’t been the case before, but Kershaw is being backed by the vastly superior ballclub here. The Dodgers are 44-17 this year with a run differential of +138. They are easily MLB’s best team. I’m looking past Kershaw’s postseason past simply because the Dodgers are the vastly superior ballclub. Last night, they knocked out Brent Suter by drawing five walks and scoring three runs in an inning and two-thirds. Suter had walked only five batters all year. So I don’t think Game 2 starter Brandon Woodruff’s numbers are of much use here either. Milwaukee entered this series without the services of its best starter and best reliever, really putting them behind the 8-ball from the start. This is a team that had a negative run differential in the regular season. 6* LA Dodgers |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -156 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (2:05 ET): It has been 16 long years since the Twins last won a playoff game. That’s remarkable, especially considering they’ve made the postseason four times since then. Three of those four times saw them get swept in the ALDS. Then came last year’s Wild Card game vs. the Yankees. Of note, 13 of the Twins’ 16 straight playoff game losses have come against the team that wears pinstripes. They’ve thankfully avoided the Yankees this time and have a surprisingly favorable matchup with the Astros in Rd 1. Calling the Astros a “favorable matchup” may sound strange given all that they’ve accomplished the last several seasons. But the 2020 edition simply hasn’t been the same. The offseason was unprecedented for every team in baseball, but for Houston it was particularly ugly as they had to deal with all the fallout from the cheating scandal. A number of key injuries soon followed and the Astros ended up outscoring foes by only four runs this year. They also finished two games BELOW .500, which was the worst record among the eight AL playoff entrants. There are a ton of other factors pointing the Twins way in this series. Houston won just NINE games away from home during the regular season, easily the fewest among ALL playoff teams. I love Minny here in Game 1 behind Kenta Maeda, who finished 6-1 in 11 starts (8-3 TSR) w/ a 2.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. At home, Maeda was even better w/ a 5-0 TSR, 1.91 ERA and 0.545 WHIP. Zack Greinke, the Game 1 starter for the Astros, just isn’t what he used to be as he allowed 3+ ER in each of his last seven starts (5.73 ERA). Greinke did not win on the road all year. 10* Minnesota |
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09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox -150 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): The White Sox, one of the real breakout teams this year in MLB, have picked a BAD time to play their worst baseball of the season. Granted, they have already clinched a playoff berth. But their range of possible seeding has gotten very wide, thanks to a six-game losing streak. They could be as high as the #2 seed if they were to win their division, a race which they currently trail by 1 game. But because of this losing skid, they could fall as low as the #7 seed if they were to finish behind both the Twins and Indians in the AL Central. First things first, the White Sox just need to win a game. I like their chances tonight behind Dane Dunning, who has a 5-1 team start record to go along with a 3.19 ERA and 1.032 WHIP. While Dunning is off his worst start to date, one in which he allowed 4 runs in a 7-4 loss at Cleveland, he still has a 2.65 ERA and 0.941 WHIP his L3 starts. He’s also unbeaten at home w/ a 0.735 WHIP. A 10-0 loss last night to the Cubs was a total embarrassment for the White Sox. Consider that the Cubs had been held to three runs or fewer in eight of their previous nine games, including 1 or 0 five times. The Cubs have not technically clinched the NL Central, but it’s extremely unlikely that they wouldn’t get the pennant given their current lead is at three games. The White Sox still have the best run differential in the American League (+58) and scored eight times off Jon Lester (Saturday’s starter for Cubs) in just 3 ⅔ innings back on August 21st. 8* Chi White Sox |
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09-25-20 | Marlins v. Yankees -179 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -179 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
7* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): The American League playoff field is set with all eight teams having clinched. Of course, you can count the Yankees among the field. They can no longer win their division (AL East), but still need to secure their position as a probable 4 or 5 seed for the postseason (4th being obviously preferred). Last night’s 4-1 loss to Toronto didn’t help nor has losing four of the past five games overall. But now the Yanks return home where they are a perfect 8-0 this season as a favorite of -175 to -250. Look for them to take this series opener. The National League playoff field is far from set with four spots still up for grabs. There are six teams vying for those four spots, all separated by just 1.5 games. Among the six, Miami has arguably the “clearest path” as their magic number is down to two and all they need to do is finish second in the NL East. But their very poor -40 YTD run differential (7th worst in MLB!) tells me this is NOT a great team and this final series of the regular season is hardly an ideal matchup. The Marlins did win yday, 4-2 in Atlanta. But they had to endure a 99-minute rain delay in the process. Now they travel up to NY and have to face the red hot J.A. Happ, who threw eight shutout innings in Boston his last time out. Over his L3 starts, Happ has a 1.40 ERA and 0.776 WHIP. Miami starter Sandy Alcantara has pitched well of late too, but I trust him less as he’s gone more than six innings just one time all year. Remember that the Yankees won 10 in a row from 9/9-9/19. Their last home loss was on September 2nd! 7* NY Yankees |
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09-24-20 | Brewers -133 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
9* Milwaukee (8:15 ET): The Brewers can’t say that they don’t have a chance to play their way right into the postseason. Unfortunately for them, they just dropped two of three in Cincinnati, a costly result as they are now a full game back of where they need to be. However, they still largely control their own destiny due to facing St. Louis this weekend (for FIVE games). The Cardinals are one of FOUR teams that’s just a game up on the Brew Crew. Just to be clear, there are currently six teams within a game of .500 right now in the National League. Four of them will make the playoffs. The winner of this series is likely to be one of the four. The Cards certainly didn’t boost their own postseason hopes when they dropped two of three in Kansas City. They lost 12-3 yesterday. Two of the three runs that they scored came in the ninth inning. Having just played 13 road games in 10 days, you’ve got to wonder what the Redbirds may have left in the tank this weekend as they get set to play their second 5-game series with the Brew Crew this season. Milwaukee won 3 of 5 at Miller Park earlier this month. St. Louis will lean heavily on starter Kwang-Hyun Kim on Thursday. He’s pitched well in six starts, though he did just give up 4 runs his last time out and that was against last place Pittsburgh. The problem for Kim and the Cards is that Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes has pitched just as well this season, if not better. Burnes tossed six scoreless innings his last time out and has 47 strikeouts his L5 starts. Even more impressive, he’s allowed just two runs (one unearned) in those five starts. For the year, Burnes now has a 1.25 ERA and 0.90 ERA. In a “must-win,” he’s exactly who the Brewers want on the mound in this situation. 9* Milwaukee |
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09-24-20 | Tigers v. Royals -160 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:05 ET): There are five teams in the American League Central. Three of them have already booked their tickets to the playoffs. These are the other two. While it may not seem like the Tigers and Royals have much to play for this weekend, the loser of this series will finish last in the division. Kansas City actually has a vastly superior run differential (-27 vs. -66), which tells me they are the team likely to have the successful series here. I’m grabbing them on the moneyline in Thursday’s opener. There was a time when Detroit fancied itself as having a shot to make the playoffs. The (then) 8th place Yankees were slumping and the Tigers were within a game of the playoff cut line. Unfortunately, since then, they have not done much. The season took nasty turn with a 19-0 loss to Milwaukee (I had the Brewers in that one!) and overall the Tigers are now just 5-16 their L21 games. They’ve been shutout five times in that stretch. They’ve lost three in a row overall and five straight road games coming into tonight. Meanwhile, KC did a good job at playing “spoiler” earlier this week, taking two of three from St. Louis including a 12-3 win yday. I definitely like tonight’s starting pitching matchup from the Royals perspective. While Kris Bubic has a 1-8 TSR, the reality is that he’s pitched much better than his record. He has a 1.56 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in his L3 starts. Last time out, he allowed just one run on one hit in 5 ⅓ innings and the run was unearned. Detroit is going with Michael Fulmer in this game and that’s almost an automatic “play against” at this point. Having yet to pitch more than three innings in any start, Fulmer remains winless in nine trips to the mound. He has a 8.17 ERA and 1.973 WHIP. He’s 2-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. KC. 10* Kansas City |
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09-23-20 | Rockies v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
7* San Francisco (9:45 ET): Let’s roll with the Giants again as they brought home a 5-2 victory last night for us. Coming off a 7-2 loss Monday, I said they (SF) couldn’t afford many more losses considering the tight Wild Card race that they are currently involved in. While finishing second place in one’s division guarantees a playoff spot, the Giants don’t have that luxury as the top two in the NL West (LA and San Diego) have already both clinched. Right now, there are three teams at .500 (Giants, Reds, Brewers) all tied for the two “Wild Card” spots. Seeing as the Reds and Brewers are currently facing one another, this series is a great chance for San Fran to make its move. The Rockies should be more than happy to oblige when it comes to the Giants making a run at the postseason. Colorado’s chances of making the playoffs are now rendered miniscule and they have the NL’s second worst run differential (-63) anyway. Ironically, it was a 23-5 loss to these Giants that essentially “sank” the Rockies’ season. They haven’t been the same since and it’s been a pretty miserable September overall. Ryan Castellani will get the baseball for Colorado here. He made an impressive big-league debut back on 8.8 (against the lowly Mariners), but since then it’s been all downhill for the rookie. The team has won just two of his last seven starts with the last one being a real rough outing against the Dodgers. He allowed eight runs in 4 ⅓. Logan Webb is also off a rough outing here for the Giants, but he should turn it around against a Rockies’ lineup that is hitting just .223 on the road and now minus Nolan Arenado. 7* San Francisco |
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09-23-20 | Orioles v. Red Sox -158 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): This season has been mostly bereft of highlights in Beantown, but tonight should mark an easy win for the Red Sox as they look to sweep the final series at Fenway Park. They beat Baltimore 8-3 last night, improving their mark to 32-14 the L3 seasons vs. the O’s. While it’s highly unusual for the Red Sox to be looking up at the Orioles in the standings, you can look for the home team to continue to own its division rival tonight as it sends Nathan Eovaldi to the bump. Eovaldi has pitched very well of late, turning in a 1.20 ERA and 0.733 WHIP his last three starts. During that time, he’s allowed only 2 ER in 15 IP. He has 17 strikeouts and just one walk. Tonight marks the third time he’s faced Baltimore in 2020 and so far his TSR is 2-0 as he’s allowed two runs in 13 innings. The Red Sox won those two games by a combined score of 20-3 (13-1 and 7-2). Take away one disastrous start at Yankee Stadium and Eovaldi has had a really nice year. Boston still has a chance to pass Baltimore and get out of last place in the American League East. Look for that to be a point of emphasis in the final week of the season. Like the Red Sox, the Orioles have been eliminated from playoff contention. They’ve lost 5 of 6 and scored three runs or less in 7 of their last 10 games, including each of the last five. Dean Kremer will start for them Wednesday. While his numbers through three starts have been good, it’s still a small sample and the Orioles have scored just one run for him each of his last two times out. 8* Boston |
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09-23-20 | Astros -190 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -190 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
6* Houston (6:40 ET): Barring something unforeseen, the Astros will end up as the 6-seed in the American League playoffs and face the division winner with the worst record in the first round. While that’s not up to the standard set in Houston these last few seasons, the ‘Stros will certainly “take it” considering all the controversy that surrounded the franchise in the offseason (cheating!), not to mention an unprecedented regular season that has seen them have to deal with countless injuries. A win tonight would clinch a playoff spot. If only they could play Seattle every day, Houston would be much happier. With last night’s 6-1 victory, they moved to 25-3 vs. the Mariners since the start of last season. They are 7-2 against their division rival in 2020. As if you needed to be reminded, Seattle is in the midst of a terrible season that’s been further complicated recently with the air quality in the area forcing them to play “home games” on the road. The Astros have been road favorites of -175 or higher only one time this season. They won and are 52-16 in that role in the L3 seasons. Sending out Zack Greinke tonight should ensure another victory. Grienke is 7-1 with a 2.08 ERA in 15 career starts vs. Seattle. While 2020 hasn’t been his best year by any means, Grienke still has a 1.075 WHIP. Seattle can only counter with Nick Margevicius, who has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, not to mention a 6.89 ERA and 1.659 WHIP. The Astros have seen him twice already this season. 6* Houston |
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09-22-20 | Rockies v. Giants -129 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (9:40 ET): The Giants lost to the Rockies last night, 6-2. They can’t afford many more results like that. With only seven games left on the regular season schedule, SF is one of five NL teams hovering around .500. There are four playoff spots still available and some of them will go to teams that finish second in their division. The Giants have no such luxury as the top two teams in the NL West (Dodgers, Padres) have already clinched. They need a strong finish this week. Colorado now has won two straight days, but still has the 2nd worst run differential (-60) in the entire National League. This is a team that, unlike the Giants, has virtually no shot of reaching the postseason. While they’re now 5-2 vs. SF this season, one of those losses was by a score of 23-5. It was that singular result that really began the Rockies’ “downward spiral” as they’ve been a below .500 team ever since. Tuesday’s starter Kyle Freeland is winless in his L9 tries including an 0-3 TSR his L3. Meanwhile, the Giants are 3-0 this year with spot starter Drew Smyly on the bump. This will be the first time Smyly takes consecutive turns in the starting rotation. Smyly has 15 strikeouts in the last two starts, which is impressive as he’s been in there for a total of just 7 ⅔ IP. The Rockies have shut down Nolan Arenado for the season, so that weakens their lineup. That’s good news here for Smyly and the Giants, who average 5.5 runs/game at home. The Rockies are averaging only 4.1 rpg on the road. 10* San Francisco |
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09-22-20 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
9* Arizona (9:10 ET): Even though eight playoff spots are available in both leagues this season, don’t look for the Rangers or Diamondbacks to be any sort of factor in the postseason hunt this final week of the regular season (other than “spoiler.”) These two also-rans open up a series Tuesday in Chase Field, both simply hoping they won’t finish in last place in their respective divisions. Arizona has had a slightly better season as Texas checks in with the worst record (19-35) and run differential (-79) in the American League. The Rangers played yesterday. Arizona did not. It was an 8-5 loss in LA (to the Angels) for the visitors Monday, their fifth loss in the last seven games. One of the two wins during that stretch was 1-0. This is a team hitting a collective .214 for the year and they’re down to .183 those L7 games. Making matters worse for Texas is that Jordan Lyles is on the mound today.He is 0-4 in four road starts with a 7.59 ERA. His season ERA is 7.82. The team has lost his L4 starts overall. While just 7-23 in their L30 games, Arizona does have the NL Player of the Week among their ranks. Kole Calhoun homered six times last week and hit .458 overall with a 1.250 slugging percentage. As a team, Arizona has hit much better than Texas has in 2020. Caleb Smith starts for just the 4th time tonight for the D’backs. I think this will be the best outing yet, given the opposition. For what it’s worth, the D’backs do NOT have the worst run differential within their own division (Colorado does) and I think there’s a chance they end up ahead of the Rockies by season’s end. 9* Arizona |
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09-22-20 | Rays -125 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
9* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Despite only scoring two runs and striking out 16 times, the Rays still managed to beat the Mets last night. They were facing Jacob deGrom, so they’ll take the win, ugly or not. Now Tampa Bay can wrap up the American League East with a win today (or Yankees loss to Toronto), which would guarantee them no lower than a 3-seed in the playoffs. No need to rely on the Blue Jays for help today. Look for the Rays to handle their own business and clinch the division w/ a win. Having deGrom on the mound obviously gave the Mets their best chance of getting a win in this series. They failed, in large part due to an anemic offense that could manage only four hits. This on the heels of being shutout on Sunday. It was the 6th time in 9 games that the Mets were held to three runs or fewer as they’ve watched their playoff odds shrink rapidly. That kind of effort at the plate will almost never cut it. It certainly won’t tonight if starter Seth Lugo pitches anywhere close to as bad as he did his last time out when he gave up four home runs in 1 ⅔ innings. The Mets somehow still won that game (10-6), but that was lucky. Blake Snell is likely to shut the Mets down in this game. The Rays starter for Tuesday has allowed 3 ER or less in every start but one this year and that came when he faced the same opponent (Miami) for a second straight time. In five road starts, Snell has a 0.986 WHIP. The Rays are simply better than the Mets even without a clear advantage on the mound. They should have little difficulty winning here. 9* Tampa Bay |
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09-22-20 | Phillies -186 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -186 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
7* Philadelphia (3:05 ET): This is the first game of a doubleheader on Tuesday. I grabbed the Nationals +1.5 in last night’s series opener. Turns out that the run line wasn’t even necessary as the reigning WS Champs picked up their first victory of the year (in seven tries) over the Phillies (by a score of 5-1). Some context on that win needs to be shared, however. In addition to all the Phillies’ injuries I discussed in yday’s analysis, they wound up going hitless w/ RISP, committed three errors, were thrown out twice trying to steal and manager Joe Girardi was ejected! Bryce Harper (back stiffness) did suit up for the Phils last night, though he was 0 for 4. The Phillies badly need to sweep this doubleheader today. Y’day’s loss dropped them into 8th overall in the National League, just one-half game ahead of both the Brewers & Giants for the final playoff spot. It may seem odd to back them a day after fading, but the main reason I like the Phils here in Game 1 is that they have Aaron Nola starting. He’s been the staff’s most reliable starter this season. It’s not just that Washington is 10-27 vs. righties this season. They are 0-2 vs. Nola. Both starts saw Nola pitch at least seven innings. He allowed two runs total and the last start saw him allow zero in eight solid innings of work. Nola has the lowest WHIP (0.973) in the Phillies starting rotation. He’ll be opposed by Austin Voth, who has struggled all year long with an 0-5 record (2-7 TSR), 7.17 ERA and 1.672 WHIP. The Nats got their win yday, but are just 1-6 vs. Philly in 2020 and don’t figure to do well in this first game Tuesday. 7* Philadelphia |
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Bryan Power MLB Top Money Lines Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -131 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
06-07-21 | Cubs v. Padres -120 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -138 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
06-06-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Indians v. Orioles -118 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
06-02-21 | A's -153 v. Mariners | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -174 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Pirates v. Royals -170 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
05-30-21 | Padres v. Astros -105 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox -152 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -110 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Padres -129 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
05-26-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -185 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -185 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
05-25-21 | Reds v. Nationals -165 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Padres -101 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Indians v. Tigers -124 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -130 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
05-23-21 | Astros -167 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -167 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Tigers v. Royals -143 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Twins v. Indians -162 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Tigers v. Royals -150 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -150 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
05-20-21 | Astros -111 v. A's | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
05-20-21 | Giants v. Reds -129 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -129 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
05-19-21 | Tigers v. Mariners -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
05-19-21 | Nationals -146 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
05-17-21 | Indians v. Angels -136 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
05-17-21 | Nationals v. Cubs -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
05-16-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -167 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
05-15-21 | A's v. Twins -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
05-14-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
05-13-21 | A's v. Red Sox -105 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves -145 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves -101 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Yankees -124 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Reds v. Pirates -115 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Reds v. Indians -138 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Phillies v. Braves -164 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
05-07-21 | Nationals v. Yankees -180 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -180 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Indians v. Royals -121 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -121 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Brewers -134 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
05-05-21 | Orioles v. Mariners -115 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's -188 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Orioles v. A's -185 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -185 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -168 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
04-29-21 | Yankees -179 v. Orioles | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -179 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
04-28-21 | A's v. Rays -159 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
04-27-21 | Marlins v. Brewers -154 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves -175 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
04-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers -104 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -117 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
04-24-21 | Phillies -170 v. Rockies | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants -146 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
04-22-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox -165 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Orioles v. Marlins -153 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
04-20-21 | Cardinals v. Nationals -124 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
04-19-21 | Rangers v. Angels -196 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -196 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
04-18-21 | Indians -155 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
04-16-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -133 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
04-16-21 | Braves -128 v. Cubs | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
04-15-21 | Red Sox v. Twins -144 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
04-15-21 | Marlins v. Braves -156 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
04-13-21 | Tigers v. Astros -178 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -178 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves -153 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
04-10-21 | Rockies v. Giants -173 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
04-09-21 | Rockies v. Giants -155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
04-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -147 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
04-06-21 | Cardinals v. Marlins -125 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
04-04-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox -165 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
04-02-21 | Giants v. Mariners -122 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
04-02-21 | White Sox v. Angels -114 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
04-02-21 | Orioles v. Red Sox -170 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -170 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
04-01-21 | Rangers v. Royals -153 | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10-27-20 | Rays v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
10-23-20 | Dodgers -148 v. Rays | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
10-17-20 | Astros +115 v. Rays | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
10-14-20 | Dodgers -175 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays -124 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
10-11-20 | Astros v. Rays -139 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10-09-20 | Yankees -150 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10-08-20 | Braves -132 v. Marlins | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
10-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves -200 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
10-05-20 | Yankees -144 v. Rays | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10-02-20 | Marlins v. Cubs -190 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -190 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
10-01-20 | Brewers v. Dodgers -225 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -156 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox -150 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
09-25-20 | Marlins v. Yankees -179 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -179 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Brewers -133 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
09-24-20 | Tigers v. Royals -160 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
09-23-20 | Rockies v. Giants -175 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
09-23-20 | Orioles v. Red Sox -158 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
09-23-20 | Astros -190 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -190 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Rockies v. Giants -129 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Rays -125 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
09-22-20 | Phillies -186 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -186 | 7 h 22 m | Show |