Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-17-17 | Royals v. Angels -133 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (8:15 ET): The Angels have really let me down the L2 days, losing both games to the Royals and scoring only three runs in the process. They are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Royals this season. Kansas City, winners of six in a row, has undoubtedly picked up team on this West Coast swing, but I still believe the Halos are due to break through w/ a win this weekend. After being dominated by Royals' pitching the L2 days, tonight's matchup on the mound seems to be squarely in the home team's favor, which helps big time. I know I've said it each of the L2 days (and been wrong!), but look for (at long last!) the Angels to finally beat Kansas City. Starting here for Los Angeles will be Adam Meyer. His team start record over his L3 starts is 0-3, but that's grossly misleading. His ERA during that time is 1.62. Control issues (five walks) plagued him his last time out, a 5-3 loss to the Yankees, but the two starts before that were the definition of "hard luck." Both saw him allow just one run over six innings, yet neither team was the offense able to pick him up. At home this year, Meyer has a 2.61 ERA in four starts. Were it not for poor run support, his TSR would be a lot better than 1-3. While their bats have awoken on this road trip, let's not lose sight of the fact that the fact that the Royals still rank 27th in MLB in runs scored and 29th in OBP. They had put together three straight games of 15+ hits going into yday, but that was only the FIFTH time in franchise history they had done so. While offense has been a problem in this series and for Meyer most of the year, I'm confident that tonight is the Angels night to break out at the plate b/c they are going up against Jake Junis, who in three starts has produced a 7.04 ERA and 1.760 WHIP. Yet he has somehow managed to win all three of them! (Meyer has to be kicking himself). Junis got away w/ allowing three home runs his last time out (to San Diego!) as they were all of the solo variety. The Padres, if you are unaware, happen to the worst offensive team in all of baseball. So there is definitely hope for the Halos here. I've gotta believe that a team that is 52-21 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 price range the L3 seasons is "due" for a win tonight. 10* LA Angels |
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06-17-17 | Cardinals v. Orioles +100 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (4:05 ET): St. Louis definitely took full advantage of the designated hitter last night, scoring 11 runs in a rout of Baltimore. The offensive outburst left me happy as I was on the Over. I was a little disappointed w/ the Orioles, however, as I would have expected more of a "fight" in their return to Camden Yards after a rather disastrous 1-7 road trip. As bad of form as the O's have flashed recently, let's not forget that they are still 21-11 here at home, even after yday's loss. This is a pretty good value I think as the Cardinals have not only lost money on the road, but also in interleague play. They came into this series having just dropped three of four at home to Milwaukee and 20 of 29 overall, including eight straight on the road. Those who follow me regularly know I constantly stress the value of a team's YTD run differential. Baltimore's is now -56 after losing big Friday, which says they should feel pretty fortunate to still be within two games of .500. However, that run diff skewing so negative is largely due to the recent road trip where they were outscored 38-8 by the Yankees alone. So, as bad as that run diff looks right now, it's probably a bit misleading. Again, they've been a FAR better team at home where they allow just 4.3 runs per game. Wade Miley, off an ugly start in Chicago on Monday, has pitched far better at home (2.15 ERA in six starts). The lefty toes the rubber tonight hoping for a performance along the lines of June 1st's outing here vs. Boston when he went seven innings and allowed just one run on five hits. The Cardinals traditionally struggle vs. southpaws and are just 7-8 against LH starters this year. Aiding the Orioles cause this afternoon will be going up against the struggling Adam Wainwright. Once a Cy Young contender (years ago), Wainwright has struggled in 2017, particularly on the road. In six road starts, he has a 7.28 ERA and 1.753 WHIP. His overall numbers, whether recent or over the course of the entire season, aren't much better. His last road start was a disaster as he allowed nine runs in only 3 2/3 IP and that was against Cincinnati. At the end of the day, I just don't believe Baltimore is as bad as they've looked recently and I think that they're due for a bit of a turnaround on this homestand. 8* Baltimore |
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06-16-17 | Royals v. Angels -113 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Well, the Angels are now 0-4 vs. the Royals this year after dropping last night's series opener by a score of 7-2. I don't expect that winless mark to continue "forever," so I'm back on the Halos at home tonight. Kansas City has all of a sudden picked up steam here, winning five straight on the West Coast w/ an average over eight runs scored per game. But again, that is something I can't see lasting given the fact their offense still ranks 27th in runs scored overall, not to mention 29th in OBP and 25th in slugging. They also have Ian Kennedy going tonight, who is not only winless in 11 starts this year (3-8 TSR), but hasn't won a decision since September 11th of last season. Kennedy comes into tonight sporting an unsightly 8.36 ERA and 1.714 WHIP his last three starts. Now only that, but he's also allowed at least four runs in SIX consecutive starts. His last one marked the ONLY time that he'd made it through six innings during that stretch. If you thought the news couldn't get any worse for Kennedy, then think again as the California native is also winless (0-4) in six career starts here in Anaheim. A recent visit down I-405 wasn't any better even though it was against the sorry Padres, who are the worst offensive team in all of baseball. That start came Saturday and the only reason Kennedy isn't 0-7 is because his offense bailed him out w/ a nine-run 8th inning. His 5.40 ERA is his worst ever for a season w/ 10+ starts. The Angels will look to bounce back behind Jesse Chavez, who has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts. He's gone at least seven innings all three times. His overall record (5-5 in 13 starts) would be a lot better if not for some lousy run support as the offense has supplied him w/ three or fewer runs in eight of those starts. Thankfully, that changed his last time out (ironically in a bad outing by Chavez) as they scored 12 times in a win over the Astros as big +165 underdogs on the money line. Chavez has certainly pitched well in the past vs. Kansas City as he has a 1.65 ERA in six career appearances (some of them coming as a reliever). Remember what I said yday as well: the Angels are a good home team (still 20-13) while KC is still only 14-18 on the road despite the now five-game win streak. 10* LA Angels |
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06-16-17 | Giants +100 v. Rockies | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:40 ET): Thank goodness for the run line as it (along w/ Giants "rally") saved me last night. I had San Fran +1.5 yday and things were looking quite bleak as they trailed 9-1 entering the top of the seventh. But from there, they would actually go on to score the game's next eight runs, tying things up heading into the bottom of the ninth. They'd end up losing, 10-9, but that was fine by me thanks to the run line. The RL is not an option tonight, however, but that's okay as we have Jeff Samardzija going on the hill. Since the start of May, the former Notre Dame wide reciever has posted an incredible 65-2 KW ratio! He may have been undone by a pair of home runs his last time out, but I have him getting the job done tonight against what I still feel is a slightly overrated Rockies club. Colorado certainly has had the Giants' number here in 2017. They're 7-1 head to head with them and have won the past six matchups. That and the fact they're now 10-2 in one-run contests are why they lead their division rivals by a stunning 16.5 games in the NL West. However, quite curiously, the Rockies' record here at Coors Field isn't that great (just 18-13). It's actually a MLB-best 25-13 road record (w/ the pitching staff performing significantly better outside of Coors) that they can credit for being atop the West and having the best overall record in the National League! But last night, the bullpen again proved it cannot be trusted here at home. For the year, Colorado relievers have a 5.45 ERA and 1.46 WHIP at Coors. I don't think you can trust starter Antonio Senzatela much either. He comes in w/ a 6.46 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts and his 9-4 team start record would be a lot worse were it not for some incredible run support this year. It's been more than two months since Senzatela won a game in which his offense did NOT score at least nine runs! The Giants got a lousy start from Matt Moore last night, but should be in far better shape here w/ Samardzija on the mound. His presence should counteract the possibility of being w/o both Buster Posey and Eduardo Nunez, both of whom left Thursday's game w/ injuries. But note the Giants' rally came after both departed and they are listed as day to day, so neither may end up missing any time. As for Samardzija, he's actually had some success pitching here at Coors w/ a 3.63 ERA in seven career starts. His ability to avoid walks should prove crucial in this hitter-friendly environment. His KW ratio is the best among all qualified NL starters and going into his last start, he was the first pitcher EVER to have 50+ strikeouts w/ one or no walks over a seven start span. If the Giants can't beat the Rockies w/ Samardzija, when can they? 10* San Francisco |
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06-15-17 | Royals v. Angels -127 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels played a late one last night, but ended up beating the Yankees 7-5, making it two in a row. Kansas City now comes to town, riding a four-game win streak themselves as their offense surprisingly picked UP despite playing the last two series in National League parks (w/o the DH). The Royals may have swept the Halos back in April, but that was in Kauffman Stadium. I question how much KC will have left in the tank here, playing its thirdconsecutive road series, all of them out here on the West Coast. Four-game win streak or not, there can be no denying that this weekend series represents a drop in class for the Angels compared to their previous opponent and I believe they'll avenge that previous sweep. Kansas City has spent much of this season in or near the bottom of the American League Central. The four-game win streak has gotten them out of the basement, but they still have been outscored by 35 runs over the course of the year and are 28th in both runs scored and on base percentage. The fact they've scored seven or more runs in four straight games is definitely surprising, but let's be sure to note that they just beat up on two of the worst teams in all of baseball, the Padres and Giants. Pitching today for the Royals will be relative unknown Matt Strahm, who is making his first big league start. He has made 20 appearances out of the bullpen in 2017 and only has a 4.50 ERA. The last time he started a game - at any level - was last July in Double-A, so this is quite the jump. Strahm is only starting here because Eric Skoglund had been so ineffective. He will be limited by a pitch count tonight, meaning a Royals' bullpen that has a 5.26 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road this season, will come into play. With the Astros way out in front, everyone else is playing for second in the AL West. Currently, the Angels hold that position as they're a game above .500. But they're a much better home team, particularly in this price range. This season, they are 10-4 as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 52-21 the L3 seasons. Overall, they are 20-13 here in LA this season. Starting here will be Ricky Nolasco, who has not won a decision since late April. The team has lost his last eight starts. But while that sounds bad, it's been a case of a pitcher just having hard luck. Only twice in those eight starts has Nolasco allowed more than 3 ER. He gave a quality effort his last time out, at Houston, allowing just two runs in 7 IP. Nolasco did not face KC in the previous series and again, revenge in the key here. 10* LA Angels |
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06-15-17 | Rays v. Tigers -127 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): These two teams have certainly been trending in opposite directions of late w/ the Tigers losing five of their last six, including both home games to Arizona to start the week. Tampa Bay, despite a loss yday in Toronto, has won six of eight. But I'm anticipating a reversal of courses this weekend as one of our favorite angles comes into play. Detroit has revenge here for a prior sweep, which took place down at Tropicana Field back in April. For tonight's opener, this would appear to be an extraordinary price on Justin Verlander, whose struggles this season have mainly been confined to the road. At home, he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.113 WHIP in five outings. Tampa Bay has a losing road record and I see them struggling a bit in this second straight series away from home. On the road, Verlander did pitch relatively well his last time out. In Boston, he allowed just three runs and five hits in 5 IP. He did walk four against just three strikeouts, but it's rare to see him finish w/ a negative KW ratio. Here at home, that ratio is greater than 2:1. While there's been concern locally over his recent stretch, it should be noted that out of Verlander's last five outings, only one could be termed "bad" and it was against the best team in baseball (Houston). He did not face the Rays in the previous series. All-time, he is 8-3 w/ a 3.34 ERA against them. Verlander will obviously need for offensive support than what the Tigers supplied last night in the loss to Arizona. The D'backs' two run first inning wound up being enough as Detroit could only answer w/ one run the rest of the ballgame. They struck out 11 times and drew only one walk. But the Tigers' hitters should fare far better tonight against the Rays' Alex Cobb, who struggled mightily in his last road start. It came at Seattle on June 3rd and he allowed nine runs and 14 hits in just five innings. Because of that, Cobb now has a 5.02 ER and 1.586 in eight starts away from home this season. While there's been so much focus on the Tigers' struggling bullpen this year, the fact is their numbers at home are better than Rays' relievers on the road. 10* Detroit |
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06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians -139 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Indians continue to struggle at home. A 7-5 loss to the Dodgers yday dropped them to 14-16 at Progressive Field this season. That goes a long way in explaining why the Tribe, a prohibitive favorite coming into the year in the AL Central, is still looking up at the Twins in the division. As for the Dodgers, they have now ascended to the top of the NL West, which is looking like it will be a very difficult three-horse race. Cleveland may have been in the World Series LY, but this year the Dodgers are looking more destined to participate in the Fall Classic due to their NL-best +92 run differential. But tonight, Corey Kluber will be on the mound and that's the difference maker in this battle of playoff hopefuls. After spending virtually all of May on the disabled list, Kluber has returned to the Cleveland rotation and delivered B2B outstanding outings, both here at home. The first, against Oakland, saw him deliver six shutout innings of two-hit ball w/ 10 K's. Last time out, he did allow 3 ER in six innings, but it was still an easy 7-3 win against the White Sox nonetheless. Opponents are hitting just .214 against Kluber since his return. Making Cleveland's sub-.500 home record all the more head-scratching is their outstanding bullpen performance here. Relievers have posted a 1.99 ERA and 1.040 WHIP at Progressive Field this season. Another shocking thing to observe in handicapping this matchup is Cleveland's 1-8 record vs. the National League this season. Typically, the AL dominates Interleague Play. Note that despite the losing home record, the Indians have outscored visitors here by an average of 0.7 rpg. Certainly, you have to be careful fading a team like the Dodgers. But facing Kluber would certainly be an appropriate time to do so. It should be noted that LA is just a .500 team on the road this season as their pitching isn't nearly as dominant as it is at Chavez Ravine. Brandon McCarthy will be the Dodgers' starter tonight and admittedly he's been hot of late. But, true to team form, he has a 3.97 ERA and 1.323 WHIP in four road starts. The team is 2-2 in those four games. Keep in mind that three of the five wins in the Dodgers' current streak came at home against Cincinnati. That's not all too impressive considering they were -170 or higher in all three games against the Reds. The Indians HAVE to start winning more at home, right? 10* Cleveland |
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06-13-17 | Mariners +105 v. Twins | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:10 ET): Minnesota's already shaky run differential took another significant hit Monday as they lost to the Mariners by a score of 14-3. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Twins and I'll explain why in a moment. However, given the way I'm going tonight and my overall view of this club, in retrospect I should have just listened to my 'gut.' Now having been outscored by 39 runs this season (4th worst in AL!) has to make you highly skeptical of the fact the Twins still lead the AL Central. The situation that led me to take them yday is again present today, only this time in favor of Seattle. We have two starting pitchers facing off for a second consecutive time. Here, I expect the M's Christian Bergmann to gain revenge against Kyle Gibson and the Twins for a loss suffered last Thursday. Neither Bergmann nor Gibson are likely destined to anchor their respective rotations anytime soon, but it was a good old fashioned "pitcher's duel" last Thursday up in Seattle, won by the Twins 2-1. The difference ended up being an unearned run allowed by Bergmann that was due to the usually surehanded Robinson Cano making two errors on the same play. If last night is any indication, I expect Bergmann to get a lot more offensive support this time around. Facing Adalberto Mejia for the second time in a week, the Mariners lineup quickly chased him on Monday after scoring nine times in the first four innings. Now, let's see if they can do the same to Gibson, whose performance last week was uncharacteristic to say the least. For the year, Gibson has a 6.52 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. He's winless in five home starts w/ even worse numbers (7.25 ERA, 2.10 WHIP), if you can believe it. While Minnesota's run differential is indicative of a losing club rather than a first place one, Seattle has now outscored its opponents by 11 runs this season despite being a game over .500. There's not nearly the kind of discrepancy there as there is w/ Minnesota, but it's still worth noting. So too is the fact the Twins are just 12-19 at home, making their first place standing all the more shocking. Bergmann had one really bad start this year, but it came at an NL park against maybe the best offense in the game (Washington). Other than that, he's allowed 3 ER or less every time out and his L3 starts have produced a 1.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP. Facing a team that's given up a total of 27 runs its last two games, I'm taking the pitcher who has revenge yet again. 10* Seattle |
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06-13-17 | Rockies v. Pirates -115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Without question, Colorado has been one of the "feel good stories" this year in MLB. On pace for the best first half to any season in franchise history (began in 1993), they currently lead the NL West, which has turned into a brutal three-horse race between them, the Dodgers and D'backs. Keep in mind the Rockies are 1 of 2 franchises NEVER to have won a division title (Marlins). They took a seven-game win streak into Sunday, but failed to sweep the Cubs in Wrigley. Then, they walked into an emotional PNC Park last night as Pirates' starter Jameson Taillon returned from cancer treatment to pitch five scoreless innings. Quietly, Pittsburgh has now won three straight and I like them to send the Rockies to a third straight loss on Tuesday. Unlike Colorado, Pittsburgh has been a pretty big disappointment in 2017, no longer resembling the club that made the playoffs three consecutive seasons (2013-15). Even after the three consecutive victories, the Bucs still currently reside in last place in the NL Central. One of the bigger reasons for the disappointing start this season has been starter Gerrit Cole, who has REALLY struggled of late w/ a 10.73 ERA his L4 turns. But I believe tonight represents a great "buy low" situation on Cole, who is a much better pitcher than what he's shown of late. Consider that before these last four starts, he'd turned in eight consecutive quality ones. The Rockies may be a NL-best 24-12 on the road this year, but one of the major reasons for skepticism is they've never been able to hit well outside of the friendly environment that Coors Field provides. They are averaging 4.8 rpg on the road this year, but yday saw them score only twice. With four rookies in the starting rotation, sustainability there is another concern for Bud Black's club. He'll go w/ Tyler Chatwood tonight. Chatwood has had the exact opposite results of Cole recently, winning his last three decisions. But mixed in there was a one bad outing against Seattle (who had no DH) where he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 IP. Chatwood does have an excellent WHIP (0.971) on the road this year, but overall his numbers aren't much different than Cole's. After that seven-game win streak, I believe Colorado is set to "give a little more back." 8* Pittsburgh |
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06-12-17 | Rangers +109 v. Astros | Top | 6-1 | Win | 109 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:10 ET): Like most teams around the league, the Rangers have had major trouble with the Astros in 2017. The 44-20 Astros are 6-1 head to head in this AL West rivalry this year, including a three-game sweep down in Arlington last month. So, as visitors this time, the Rangers certainly seem to be "up against it this week." However, having Yu Darvish on the mound Monday probably represents their best shot at taking a game and getting a pitcher of that caliber, at this price, is too good to pass up. Darvish is well overdue for a win here considering an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts in spite of a 1.091 WHIP. This will certainly be a better matchup for Darvish than when he faced Dallas Keuchel last month. Houston has proven itself "mortal" of late by dropping four of six since an 11-game win streak. The Astros have actually failed to win each of the last two series, first having to settle for a split at KC, then dropping two of three (here at home) to the Angels. Yesterday saw a 6-3 lead turn into a 12-6 loss. The number of runs allowed by Houston pitching has dramatically increased since the 11-game win streak ended (6.0 rpg during 2-4 stretch). This can be directly tied to three starters being on the DL. One of them, Joe Musgrove, makes his return to the mound Monday. Prior to the stint on the DL, Musgrove has turned in his best outing of the season by tossing seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. But one of his worst outings of the year came here at home against Texas where he allowed five runs in just four innings. That also happens to be the lone time the Astros lost to the Rangers here in 2017. You'll recall that Texas had its own impressive win streak this year, that of 10 games. However, what they did over the weekend might be just as impressive. That would be go to D.C. and sweep the Nationals. In between the 10-game win streak and this past weekend's sweep, the club was rather "so-so" and like I said Darvish has not won a decision in awhile. But before losing each of the L3 turns, the Rangers had won six straight Darvish starts. His numbers (3.07 ERA, 1.134 WHIP) remain pretty solid, so I'd like to reiterate what a good value this is getting the better starting pitcher at "plus money." The Rangers have outscored opponents this season. 8* Texas |
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06-12-17 | Orioles v. White Sox +105 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox are yet another AL Central team that finally gets to return to the friendly confines of home this week. They are coming off an unsuccessful road trip, one that saw them finish 2-7 after dropping two of three over the weekend in Cleveland. However, their opponents arrive on the South Side in far worse shape. The Orioles were absolutely bludgeoned this past weekend in the Bronx, losing all three games to the Yankees by a combined score of 38-8! Buck Showalter has certainly "proven me wrong" before by getting inferior clubs to the postseason, but this year's fast start appears to be a mirage now that the O's run differential is -40 (despite being a game over .500!). That's the third worst run differential in the A.L. Chicago, who was not expected to be a contender in any way, shape or form this year, also got off to a surprisingly decent start. It came on the back of their pitching, which was really surprising given the trading away of Chris Sale in the offseason. For much of the first two months of the season, the White Sox ranked right near the top of the American League for fewest number of runs allowed. I did play against them Sunday, but that was on the road against a far superior opponent. Baltimore is having major problems on the road this year as their record is just 10-20 after suffering the sweep over the weekend. Last month at Camden Yards, the O's swept the White Sox, which of course sets up one of my favorite handicapping angles - that being taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep of three games or more. Mike Pelfrey seemingly won't ever get a ton of respect from the marketplace, but the Sox starter has pitched relatively well this season despite a 3-6 team start record. His L4 starts have seen him allow a .198 batting average and .261 OBP. At home, he has a 2.84 ERA and 1.053 WHIP for the season. He did not pitch at Camden Yards in the series last month. Wade Miley did, just barely, for the Orioles. Lasting only two-thirds of an inning, he had to be pulled after getting hit by B2B line drives. He'd already given up three hits while getting just two outs. While injury was the cause of that outing getting cut short, there was no excuse his last time out as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings and gave up four runs on eight hits. It was the third time in five starts he allowed at least four runs when going five innings or less. 8* Chi White Sox |
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06-12-17 | Mariners v. Twins -118 | Top | 14-3 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10): Even though they currently lead the AL Central, the Twins are a team that simply hasn't gained much respect w/ me or the marketplace in general. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact they are -28 in run differential despite being five games over .500. They lost yday, 13-8 to the Giants, but all that did was prevent them from pulling off a three-game sweep. Tonight, they happen to fall into one of my favorite handicapping situations, that being taking a pitcher w/ "immediate revenge" (i.e. facing the same pitcher he lost to in his most recent start). Adalberto Mejia and the Twins lost to Yovani Gallardo and the Mariners back on June 7th, but that was in Seattle where the M's are a solid 20-13 on the year. On the road, they're 11-20. Gallardo is not exactly having a stellar 2017 nor did he pitch well his last time out against the Twins. In fact, he allowed five runs for a second consecutive start. A 7.63 ERA and 1.957 WHIP his L3 starts doesn't even include his disastrous showing on 5.20 against the White Sox where he allowed 10 runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Gallardo was bailed out by the offense last week against the Twins, but he should not anticipate such support this time around as the Mariners' offense has been held to four runs or fewer each of the last four games and was shut out (6th time this year) on Sunday. The team averages just 4.1 rpg on the road this year while allowing 5.1 rpg. Given the Twins' surprisingly good start (team lost over 100 games LY!), their overall lack of success at home is certainly a bit head-scratching. They're only 12-18 at Target Field so far, a record I expect to regress to the mean somewhat on this upcoming 11-game home stand (includes doubleheader Saturday vs. Cleveland). This will be their first home game in June following a 10-game West Coast swing that saw them finish 6-4 overall. Mejia actually pitched well in Seattle last week, giving up only two hits (in five innings), but unfortunately they were both home runs. He's been a solid starter for this team, going at least five innings each of his last four starts while posting a 3.52 ERA. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start this season. I like his prospects for revenge Monday night. 8* Minnesota |
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06-11-17 | White Sox v. Indians -192 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): After taking Friday's series opener (behind Corey Kluber), the Tribe failed to get the job done Saturday, losing to the White Sox by a score of 5-3. There's really no sugarcoating that it's been a pretty disappointing first two months to the season for the defending AL Champs, but the bottom line is the Central remains a very winnable division and they do currently sport the best YTD run differential (+13) among the group. In fact, they are the ONLY team in the division that can claim to have outscored opponents over the course of the season. Rival Chicago got off to a surprisingly decent start, but - yday aside - they've predictably regressed. I've said it before, but it really stunned me that this team was so proficient on the runs allowed side of the ledger in the early going. But, on paper, the starting rotation remains very week, which is what you'd expect from a team in the midst of a rebuild. When Chris Sale was dealt to Boston in the offseason, it basically was a sign that the White Sox were waving the proverbial white flag on 2017. Jose Quintana became the de facto ace and simply put, the shoes have proven too big to fill. Coming into Sunday's start, Quintana is sporting a 5.30 ERA and 1.407 WHIP. The team did win as a sizable ML underdog (+165) his last time out, against Tampa Bay's Chris Archer, as the lefty allowed just one run on four hits in 5 1/3 IP. But he did walk four batters. That also came after B2B disastrous outings where he allowed a total of 15 runs in just seven combined innings. He allowed four HR's during that stretch. Overall, in six starts since May 2nd, Quintana is winless w/ a 6.68 ERA. Cleveland got a bad start from Josh Tomlin Saturday as he allowed three first-inning runs and it was essentially "over from there" as Chicago outhit the Indians 14-5. I expect far better from Carlos Carrasco today. Not only does Carrasco have a 0.962 WHIP for the season (4th in A.L.), but in two starts so far against the White Sox, he's allowed just 1 run in 15 IP. He's off a bit of a rough showing, but will also be working on seven days' rest here. Overall, the Indians have won 8 of his 11 starts this year. I remain stunned that the Tribe have a losing record at home so far, but expect that to be soon rectified. 8* Cleveland |
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06-11-17 | A's v. Rays -179 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): After crushing Oakland in Friday's opener, the Rays had to settle for a split of Saturday's doubleheader, losing the second game after taking the first in extra innings. The loss in the second half of the twin bill snapped a four-game win streak for the Rays, who have now gotten over .500. They'll have their ace, Chris Archer, on the hill Sunday and will certainly need him to be at his best after the bullpen was called into duty early in Game 2 yday when starting Matt Andriese had to be lifted in the 1st inning due to a groin injury. Thankfully, Archer comes in fine form and the A's have not only the worst road record in the American League (9-22), but also the worst run differential (-64) as well. Archer was the quintessential "hard luck loser" his last time out as he gave up just two runs and five hits in 7 IP to go w/ 11 K's, yet he received little in the way of run support and the Rays lost 4-2 to the White Sox. In five of his last seven starts, Archer has struck out 11+ batters, which is very impressive. Oakland's lineup is one that certainly "not afraid" to go down swinging as they've now struck out double digit times in four of the past five ballgames. Six of Archer's last eight starts have been quality. He's posted a 0.923 WHIP in the last three and a 41-5 KW ratio in his last four. That makes him certainly due for some better results than the current 7-6 team start record, especially in light of LY's disappointing returns. On the other side of the spectrum, Oakland's Jesse Hahn comes in w/ a 5.54 ERA and 1.692 WHIP his L3 turns. That's despite a shockingly good performance his last time out where all he gave up was an unearned run in a 4-1 over Toronto. But that came at home. As referenced above, the A's are NOT a good road team while TB is a strong home team. Not only do the Rays own a 20-15 WL record at Tropicana Field, they are outscoring opponents here by nearly a full run per game. Visiting teams (going into yday) were batting just .229 for the season at the Trop. The A's bullpen is also terrible (5.90 ERA) and for what it's worth the team has won just once on a Sunday all season. 8* Tampa Bay |
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06-10-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:10 ET): It was a wild 8-6 game last night the saw the D'backs' 9-game win streak here at Chase Field come to an end. Both teams scored three times in the first frame and what was interesting is that three of the four innings the Brew Crew scored, Arizona would answer w/ an identical number of runs in the bottom half. Therefore, the difference was a two-run sixth by the visitors. Both of these teams would qualify as being among MLB's most pleasant surprises in 2017, but I remain far more skeptical of the Brewers as not only do they have an inferior YTD run differential, but I also can't see their current win percentage on the road being maintained. Arizona is a MLB-best 24-9 at home this year and outscoring foes by 2.4 runs per game here. No one expected the Brew Crew to be ahead of the Cubs at this juncture of the season, let alone in first place in the National League Central. Yet, that's "where we are" entering today's action. Going into yday, the club was coming off a 3-3 homestand. They have a losing record (9-11) over their last 20 games overall and also have a losing home record (17-19) this year. Therefore, it's the 16-10 road record that's clearly keeping them "afloat." But how long will it last? They still project as a .500 team at best and several key pieces currently find themselves on the DL. Jonathan Villar (2B) is the latest to join the list after leaving last night's game w/ a back injury. Third baseman Travis Shaw is already on the family emergency list and Ryan Braun remains out as well. As detailed above, Chase Field is difficult enough to win at when the visitor is at full strength. Arizona is in a vicious three-battle in the NL West w/ Colorado and the Dodgers. Though the D'backs are currently third in their own division, they are top five in all of MLB in run differential (+70). That's certainly encouraging. So too has been the work of tonight's starter Zack Godley, who is working on a streak of five straight quality outings. In three home starts this year, Godley has a 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP. Two starts ago, he faced this Milwaukee team (on the road) and threw six shutout innings of five-hit ball. He's working on extended rest here as this will be his first start of June. He'll again work opposite of Junior Guerra, who has had a bit of hard luck in '17, but then again his WHIP is actually higher than his ERA over the L3 starts, something you don't see very often. That's due to nine walks. No team in baseball is more prolific offensively in its home park than is Arizona, so this is a tough assignment here for Guerra. 8* Arizona |
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06-10-17 | Twins v. Giants -147 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Where both of these teams currently reside in the standings has to be considered a major surprise, at least when compared to preseason projections. Minnesota (31-26) is your surprise leader in the AL Central, this despite having actually been outscored by 24 runs so far. Meanwhile, the Giants are a perennial playoff contender in the Senior Circuit, but this is an "odd year" (World Series wins came in 2010, '12 and '14) and right now they are battling lowly San Diego just to stay out of the cellar in the NL West. The surprises continued yday as the Twins came to town and shut the Giants out, 4-0, w/ Ervin Santana doing virtually all the damage - both on the mound and at the plate. Not only did the Twins' early season Cy Young contender toss a four-hit shutout, but he also doubled home three of the runs his team would score for the game. Jose Berrios has emerged as the Twins #2 man in the rotation, but there have been recent signs of regression. Such as him allowing three home runs to the Angels back on 5.24 or allowing four runs in just five inning to Houston on 5.30. He was a bit better his last time out (June 4th), but that was against the Mike Trout-less Angels. Granted, the Giants' lineup has generally lacked punch this year. But they did score nine runs Thursday and have scored at least seven in four of the last eight games. Something remarkable about Minnesota being in first place still is the fact they allowed the highest number of runs per game in all of baseball during the month of May. A 19-8 road record also "reeks" of likely regression as well. In addition to have suspect depth in the starting rotation, the Twins' bullpen sports a 5.15 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Provided the Giants' offense can bounce back this afternoon, they should be in good shape w/ Jeff Samardzija on the hill. Samardzija has posted a remarkable 59-1 KW ratio going back to May 1. He's off one of his best outings of 2017 as he held Milwaukee to just two runs (one earned) in 7 2/3 IP while striking out 10 batters. A former AL pitcher, Samardzija has faced the Twins several times before and is 4-1 all-time against them. As rough as things have been for SF so far, my skepticism over Minnesota outweighs that and I'll concluded by noting the Twins have a losing record in day games to due to giving up an average of 6.0 rpg. I'll call for the Giants to bounce back from last night's debacle. 8* San Francisco |
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06-09-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners +109 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 109 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners and Blue Jays each entered 2017 w/ playoff aspirations, but poor starts on both sides quickly derailed those thoughts. Toronto still resides in last place in the AL East, though it is Seattle that faces a far greater uphill climb given that they are in the same division (AL West) as the Astros and face a 13-game deficit. So at this point, it's fair to say that the Wild Card would be their only point of entry for the playoffs. But despite a myriad of injuries, the M's certainly aren't giving up. In fact, they had a five-game win streak (season-best) snapped yday, but only due to a two critical errors by Robinson Cano on the same play (lost 2-1 to Minnesota). Overall though, the fact remains that Seattle has won 9 of 11 and this is a big time revenge series for them as they were swept (in a four-game series) out in Toronto last month. If you're a regular of mine, then you know how I feel about that. If not, know that taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three or more games) is one of my favorite angles in MLB betting. Seattle was a season-worst eight games below .500 following a loss to Boston on 5.27. Since then, they've gone 9-2, virtually all of the wins coming here at Safeco Field. They've won series against Colorado and Minnesota, both of whom are division leaders, plus they swept Tampa Bay. They've outscored their opponents 76-32 during this time, giving them a positive run differential for the year. Important here is that tonight's starter, Sam Gaviglio, did not get a start in the series in Toronto where the M's were swept. He did work two innings of relief and allowed one run in what was his big league debut. So far, Gaviglio has been a very effective starter here at home, allowing just 1 ER in 10 IP. Last time out may have been his most effective start to date as he allowed just four hits to Tampa Bay w/ the lone run conceded via a solo home run. He also finished w/ a season-best 6-0 KW ratio. Toronto is also inching its way back to the Mendoza Line (i.e. .500). But after a strong conclusion to May, they've sputtered some here in June, dropping four of seven. They do enjoy the benefit of having yday off, but I'm not sure that's enough to cure an offense which has scored three runs or fewer in five of those seven games this month. On the mound, they go w/ Joe Biagini, who did throw five shutout innings against the Mariners last month. But that was at home and on the road, Biagini's ERA is 5.84. His job will be made far tougher if Nelson Cruz (calf) does indeed return to the Seattle lineup. 10* Seattle |
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06-09-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals -167 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): On May 31st, the Cardinals did something that no other team had been able to do over the previous week and that was beat the Dodgers. They did it again on June 1st. Then, the bottom dropped out. Seven straight losses have this once proud organization well below .500. Getting swept by the Cubs (in Wrigley) last weekend was one thing, but getting swept by Cincinnati is pretty embarrassing. It should be noted, however, that the entirety of the losing streak has taken place on the road. Now they finally get to return home to the friendly confines of Busch Stadium where they'll host the team w/ the worst overall record in baseball, the Phillies. I feel a bounce back is "in the Cards" (pun intended!) this weekend and will go w/ St. Louis in tonight's opener. Unlike the Cards, Philly actually got off to a strong start in June, producing a four game win streak at one point. But that was only after a dreadful month of May (went 6-22) and the win streak has since ended. They come into tonight off B2B losses in Atlanta, both times scoring only one run. They're at a slight disadvantage here in the sense that they didn't get out of Atlanta until late while St. Louis wrapped up the series at Cincinnati in the afternoon. A league-worst 9-23 road record certainly does the Phils no favors here either. While the Redbirds are coming off their first 0-7 road trip in a decade, note that they actually held multiple run leads in five of the seven games. On paper, we have a pretty terrible pitching matchup tonight w/ two struggling starters. But while Philly's rotation has received just 19 quality starts all year (29th), St. Louis' rotation spent much of the year in the top 10. Jeremy Hellickson goes for Philly here and not only does he have a lousy 6.75 ERA his L7 starts overall, his career ERA vs. St. Louis is 5.03. He's coming off a 103-pitch outing to boot. Starting opposite him will be Michael Wacha, who is trying to erase a string a poor outings himself. But remember his first seven starts of the year brought six quality starts. He's better than what he's shown recently and this is a prime opportunity for he - and his team - to bounce back. 8* St. Louis |
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06-09-17 | Marlins v. Pirates -127 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates were somewhat humiliated last night, losing at home to the Marlins, 7-1. Three consecutive playoff appearances (2013-15) now seem like a somewhat "distant memory" for a club that regressed to 78 wins a year ago and now finds itself residing in last place in the National League Central (26-34). Of course, little was expected of the Marlins this year in the wake of the Jose Fernandez tragedy. Things got off to a pretty awful start for them, but they've treaded water since, including wins in five of the last seven games. Two of those wins have come w/ Edinson Volquez on the hill. One was a no-hitter on 6.3 vs. Arizona while the other took place last night here at PNC Park. There's obviously no Volquez tonight then and thus I'm willing to bet Miami falters. Vance Worley will instead be the starter for the visitors tonight. In his first three starts of 2017, things have not gone well for Mr. Worley. A former Pirate, Worley is still winless this season and a 7.10 ERA seems to indicate he deserves to be. The only game Miami lost in the series w/ Arizona came when Worley was on the mound as he allowed five runs in just 3 2/3 innings. He's yet to make it past the fifth inning in any start, which isn't a good sign when your bullpen has a 5.44 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the road. The Pirates offense had been putting up some big numbers prior to yday, including two games w/ double digit runs against the Mets last weekend. They followed that up w/ a pair of heartbreaking, extra-inning losses in Baltimore, both times blowing a lead in the bottom of the ninth. So, yday aside, recent results for the Bucs are a tad misleading. Tyler Glasnow has been one of several disappointments in Pittsburgh this season. The 23-year old right-hander was highly touted coming into 2017, but has failed to deliver, instead offering up a 6.97 ERA and 1.868 WHIP. His walk rate is also among the worst in all of MLB. He allowed a career-worst 3 HR's his last time out, but prior to that had allowed 3 ER or less in six of eight starts, so he had been showing signs of breaking out. Though the Marlins have totaled 13 runs in the L2 games, I'm not convinced that's the start of any kind of trend as the previous two games saw them total only three. When a home team gets embarrassed the way the Bucs did last night, pride usually kicks in and a bounce back - more often than not - usually takes place. 10* Pittsburgh |
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06-08-17 | Astros -192 v. Royals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
6* Houston (8:15 ET): What was an 11-game win streak for the Astros has come to a screeching halt here in KC as they've dropped two in a row, including yday when they had to scratch Dallas Keuchel's scheduled start. As disappointing a result as that 7-5 decision was, the likelihood that the last place Royals can defeat Lance McCullers, Jr seems minimal to me. He and Keuchel form possibly the most potent front end of any starting rotation in baseball and that's a big reason why Houston has gotten off to such a great start. They're 42-18 w/ a +102 run differential and that includes a 10-2 mark w/ McCullers pitching as they've outscored opponents 28-12 his L5 starts alone. In four of his six starts in May, he didn't even give up a single run! Kansas City is of course the lowest scoring offense in all of the American League. They've scored only 213 runs or 34 fewer than the second lowest scoring AL club. So, theoretically, this is a tailor-made matchup for the Astros, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in the American League. McCullers wasn't even at his best his last time out, allowing four runs in 4 1/3 innings, but that was against an opponent (Texas) that typically gives him trouble. It was just his third non-quality start of 2017. Back in early April, he dominated this Royals lineup, allowing just three runs in 7 IP. He finished w/ 10 K's and didn't walk anybody. It should be noted that at no point this season has Houston lost both legs of the B2B starts from Keuchel and McCullers. Kansas City's offense has certainly picked up in the last two games (16 runs scored), but I wouldn't bet on that lasting too long. As mentioned earlier, they struggled against McCullers back in April. On the other side of the ledger, their starter Jason Hammel has experienced the exact opposite results of McCullers. Hammel comes in w/ a 2-9 TSR, 5.93 ERA and 1.595 WHIP. Both wins came against the same opponent, Cleveland. He did not pitch in the earlier series w/ the Astros, but I expect him to struggle based on the fact opponents are hitting .295 off him. He would have allowed even more runs if not for abnormal luck when runners are in scoring position. The Astros come in ranked #1 in MLB in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging! 6* Houston |
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06-08-17 | White Sox v. Rays -167 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Starter Jake Odorizzi was originally slated to toe the rubber yday, but even w/o him the Rays were able to down the White Sox by a score of 3-1. That sets up a rubber match tonight w/ Odorizzi pitching and I feel the home side (TB) is poised to take this series. Chicago is a team that has fallen into last place in the AL Central after a suprising start led by their even more surprising pitching. For awhile, they were among the AL leaders in the runs allowed side of the ledger. But that's started to shift, which is predictable given that the departure of Chris Sale in the offseason signaled a clear rebuild on the South Side of Chicago. Derek Holland pitches tonight's finale, bringing w/ him a 5.51 ERA and 1.776 WHIP his L3 starts overall. The Rays came into this series off a humbling sweep in Seattle. But they've proven to be a far better team here at Tropicana Field where they're 17-14 and outscoring opponents by 0.8 rpg. Meanwhile, the White Sox are now a lousy 13-21 on the road. They'd lost five in a row, three of them in Detroit, prior to this series commencing. Both starters here come off poor showings (each allowed 8 runs), but the difference is five of the runs charged to Odorizzi were unearned. With Odorizzi's scheduled start pushed back a day, they now come in w/ equal rest. Holland lasted only 2 1/3 innings his last time out and gave up three home runs, which certainly is not good. Nor is his 4.66 career ERA vs. the Rays. In addition to working on an extra day of rest here, another boost for Odorizzi is pitching at home. In five Tropicana Field starts this year, he has an 2.90 ERA and 0.935 WHIP. Prior to the poor showing last week in Seattle, Odorizzi had allowed 2 ER or less in six of his seven previous starts. The White Sox hitting, or lack there of, has been an issue for them all season w/ them ranking 21st in runs scored and 24th in slugging and OBP. Look for Odorizzi to exploit that. Chicago has won just two of its last eight visits to Tropicana Field. 8* Tampa Bay |
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06-07-17 | Phillies v. Braves -130 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Make it 0-5 for the Braves this year against the Phillies. The home team has been killing me in this series as I've been on them each of the last two days. But I'll stick w/ them again tonight as I maintain the handicap on this series is accurate. Historically, I've had great success taking a team that has revenge for a prior sweep of three or more games, which is what happened to Atlanta in the City of Brotherly Love back in April. With these two clubs, it's not as if one could say the Phillies are significantly better, in fact, most metrics would indicate they are the inferior side. They're still not too far removed from an absolutely dreadful month of May (6-22) and still are just 9-21 on the road this season. Their current four-game win streak is not their longest of the year (they did win 5 straight in late April), but note that outside of those two streaks, the team's overall record is just 12-35! Starting today for the Phils is Jerad Eickhoff. In addition to have an odd spelling for his first name, Eickhoff has the dubious distinction of being winless in 11 starts this season (0-6). His team start record is 2-9 and his ERA (5.28) and WHIP (1.575) indicate that there's no bad luck there. In his last start, a 10-0 loss to the lousy Giants, he allowed five runs in 2 2/3 IP. He also issued a career-high five walks. Something else to consider is that yday's game marked the 1st time all season that a Phillies starter lasted eight innings. It's not like the bullpen is very good either. Overall, Philly's YTD run differential (-55) remains fourth worst in baseball, even after factoring in the current win streak. Atlanta at least did better yday than Monday where they fell into a huge 9-0 hole early. Last night actually saw them score first, but a first inning run would also be their last. Offense has been hard to come by in this series as they continue to struggle at home. But against Eickhoff, I expect their bats to resemble the kind of performance we saw Sunday when they put 13 runs on the board against Cincinnati. Starting tonight will be Mike Foltynewicz, who is off a stellar outing last Friday. It was in Cincinnati and he threw seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters. Sadly, the Braves still lost that game, 3-2. So they definitely "owe" Foltynewicz one today. Note that in four of his past five starts, Foltynewicz has allowed 3 ER or less. The Phillies are not strong offensively on the road (just 3.9 rpg) and this madness that is the Braves' losing streak to them must end. 10* Atlanta |
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06-07-17 | Cardinals -138 v. Reds | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (7:10 ET): Needless to say, the Cardinals have not had a good start to June. Well, they did beat the Dodgers last Thursday (1st of the month). But since that win, they've lost five straight, first getting swept by the Cubs, then dropping the first two games of this series w/ Cincinnati. Last night may have marked the official "low point" as they lost 13-1 w/ the Reds' Scooter Gennett turning in one of the greatest single-game performances by a MLB player - EVER - as he went 5 for 5 at the plate w/ 4 home runs and 10 RBI's. Consider though that Gennett was mired in an 0 for 19 slump heading into Monday's opener. Needless to say, he'll regress sharply here and so to should the entire team as I just can't fathom St. Louis dropping a third straight game to their division rival. Believe it or not, but Cincy actually comes into this game ahead of St. Louis in the NL Central standings (by one-half game). Few, if any, would have predicted that to be the case 55+ games into the season. In fact, it wasn't that long ago that the Redbirds were a top the division. The current losing streak has changed that, but it's notable that they still have the honor of having allowed the fewest number of runs among all NL Central teams. Believe it or not, they've actually allowed the third fewest in the entire Senior Circuit (only Dodgers and D'backs ahead of them). Tonight, they'll have Lance Lynn on the bump. While Lynn has not won a decision since May 5th, don't blame him for that. He's posted a 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts despite those all ending up as team losses. In 8 of his 11 starts this season, Lynn has allowed 2 ER or fewer and he has a 2.97 ERA and 1.068 WHIP for the year, very good numbers. I give Lynn a significant edge over his counterpart here, the aging Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo may have the better team start record of the two pitchers (6-5 vs. 5-6), but that is totally misleading as his ERA (6.24) and WHIP (1.439) are both significantly higher. Arroyo has actually been rather serviceable his L2 outings, but those came against Atlanta and Philadelphia, two very bad teams. One thing to still be concerned about w/ him is low strikeout totals. He hasn't recorded more than four in any of his last seven starts. His career numbers against St. Louis are terrible, especially in recent years as he's 0-6 w/ a 6.34 ERA his L9. Compare that to Lynn, who is 9-4 w/ a 3.22 ERA all-time vs. the Reds. Lynn is also third in the entire NL w/ opponents batting just .192 against him. I just don't buy the Reds, projected to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball at the start of the year, to continue winning. Nor can I see the Cards continuing to lose like this. 10* St. Louis |
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06-06-17 | Blue Jays -139 v. A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
8* Toronto (10:05 ET): The Blue Jays were beaten last night, 4-2 here in Oakland, but I anticipate them bouncing back here w/ Marco Estrada on the bump. Opposing him will be Jesse Hahn, who is making his retun after a stint on the DL. It's not like the A's are any kind of formidable opponent. While it's true that this is a battle of last place teams, Toronto in the AL East and Oakland in the West, the A's have a worse record and far worse run differential (-60 to -8). Going into yday, the A's had dropped seven of nine and they haven't beaten the same opponent in consecutive days since a somewhat shocking sweep of the Red Sox back in mid-May. This is a good time to fade them. Toronto dug itself a pretty big early hole this season, but they're already within two games of .500, so by no means are they "out of it." In fact, as good as the Yankees have been so far, the Jays trail them by only six games. On the other hand, you have Oakland, who is 16.5 games off the pace in the AL West. One player - Ryan Healy - accounted for all of the A's offensive production last night. That's something that simply cannot be counted upon again. The team was off B2B 10-run performances against Washington over the weekend, but note that for the year they rank 24th or lower in runs scored, team batting average and slugging. That should make life easy for Estrada, who is looking to rebound from a disastrous start in Yankee Stadium last week. Considering that in the two starts prior he allowed just 2 ER total (1 each time) and had a 20-2 KW ratio, the chances of a bounce back performance from Estrada are high. As for Hahn, he's struggled mightily at home this year w/ a 6.94 ERA and 1.971 WHIP in three starts. Most pitchers, save for the great ones (which Hahn is not), tend to struggle in their first start post-DL. Coming off a triceps injury, expect the club to be cautious w/ him as there are also concerns over Hahn's velocity. It's not like Oakland's bullpen is very good either. I think a pretty clear cut case could be made that the A's are the worst team in the American League, so fading them at this price seems like a strong value. 8* Toronto |
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06-06-17 | Phillies v. Braves -108 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Braves were embarrassed last night, losing to the Phillies 11-4 here at Sun Trust Park. The loss drops them to 0-4 head to head in this NL East rivalry. That seems odd considering you wouldn't necessarily perceive one club as being demonstrably better than the other and if you did, it certainly wouldn't be Philly. Despite a relatively modest three-game win streak, the Phils still have the worst record in all of baseball (20-35) and have been outscored by 59 runs over the course of the season. Taking teams looking to avenge a prior sweep remains one of my favorite angles in betting MLB, so w/ the pitching edge tonight, I'm again backing Atlanta. The Braves fell into a huge early hole last night as starter Bartolo Colon simply didn't "have it" and as a result he may not be long for this starting rotation. Before you knew it, the Braves were down 3-0 after the top of the first and it got as bad as 9-0 before Atlanta finally scored in the fourth. I expect a far better start tonight from southpaw Jaime Garcia, who has a remarkable 0.42 ERA over his L3 starts. Sadly, the team has lost two of those last three starts even though Garcia has allowed just 1 ER (four runs total) in 21 2/3 IP. Last time out was the definition of "hard luck" as Garcia was charged w/ just one unearned run in seven innings, yet the team still lost 2-1 to the Angels. While the team has yet to experience sustained success in its new stadium, Garcia has pitched well here in his two starts, posting a 1.88 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. It sure is odd that only two of his 10 starts this season have come at home. In the previous series vs. the Phillies, Garcia worked six strong innings and gave up just two runs on five hits. But, sadly, the offense let him down (again) in a 4-3 loss. While Garcia would clearly seem to be "due" (for some success), the same cannot be said for Phillies starter Aaron Nola. The team is 0-3 in his L3 starts and that's largely b/c of his 5.62 ERA. His last time out saw him last only three innings as he gave up four runs in a 10-2 loss at Miami. Rarely has Nola gone deep into games this year as there's been just one instance of him making it past the sixth inning. In addition to Garcia being due, the same could be said for the Braves as a whole at home. Remember Philly is 8-21 in road games. Garcia leads the way here. 10* Atlanta |
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06-05-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers -123 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Nationals/Dodgers (10:05 ET): What a series we have here. For my money, these are the two best teams in the National League right now. We might as well go ahead and already crown the Nationals champions of the NL East as they've already opened up a 10.5 game lead over the rest of the field and I assure you that none of the other teams in that division are talented enough to make up that gap. As for the Dodgers, they find themselves in a far more fierce race out West w/ Colorado and Arizona. Those three are separated by just two games and while LA may not have the division lead, they do own the best run differential in the entire Senior Circuit (at +84). That's largely due to the fact they are #1 in all of baseball in runs allowed. Because of that, I'm on the Under in tonight's series opener. While the Dodgers have given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, no team has scored more than the Nationals. So, obviously, something will have to give here. It should be noted that Washington's offense noticeably slowed down in May (4.3 rpg) as they were just 20th in runs per game during the month. The offense picked back up in a major way over the weekend in Oakland, but remember they had a DH in that series. Bryce Harper also returned from suspension Sunday. But the combination of no-DH and playing in Dodger Stadium should more than counteract Harper's return. Road teams are averaging just 3.1 rpg here at Dodger Stadium this year while batting a collective .217. Over the L7 days, Dodgers pitching has held opposing hitters below a .200 BA. Lucky for the Nats is that they have Gio Gonzalez going on the mound tonight. He is 3-1 w/ a 1.69 ERA in five career starts vs. Los Angeles. He also comes in off a quality start and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his 11 starts overall. It should be pointed out that the Dodgers were shut out yday, the second time that's happened in the last four games, and they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games. Hyun-Jin Ryu will get the baseball for the home team here and he's coming off B2B strong showings, having allowed just three runs in 11 1/3 IP. He's now allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his past five outings. Washington's offensive numbers are way down when facing lefty starters this year, to 3.4 rpg. The Under is 5-1 in those games. 8* Under Nationals/Dodgers |
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06-05-17 | Phillies v. Braves -115 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): At first blush, this battle of NL East also-rans may appear to be as unappealing as any matchup on Monday's MLB card. But there are several reasons to like the Braves here, the fact they have revenge for a prior sweep (suffered back in April) chief among them. As any regular of mine knows, taking a team looking to avenge a prior sweep is one of my favorite angles in betting MLB and it's been quite successful through the years, 2017 in particular. Atlanta has won each of the last two days, including a 13-run effort Sunday. Philadelphia is also off B2B wins here (over SF), but they're still not too far removed from an atrocious 6-22 May. Their weekend series also took place at home. On the road, they're a woeful 7-21, the worst such record in all of baseball. It was at home that the Phillies swept a three-game set from the Braves in late April, two of the wins coming by a one-run margin. Shortly after that, they would nosedive and not only do they have the worst road record in baseball, they also have the worst overall record. Now Atlanta has struggled a bit in its first year playing a new home stadium (10-12), especially on the runs allowed side of the ledger (6.0 rpg). But they should certainly be happy to be back here after going 4-5 on the just completed road trip. Something else to consider is that no team has played fewer home games this year. Thus, there's still a likelihood that they'll be turning things around here at SunTrust Park, which is where they'll play 18 of their next 21 games. Before taking two of three from the Giants over the weekend, the Phils had lost 10 consecutive series. A pitching staff which has allowed 7.0 rpg over the last week could be in trouble in this hitter-friendly park. The two starting pitchers Monday are at very different stages of their respective careers. Philly has recalled Nick Pivetta from Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Pivetta has made four starts at the big league level this year and the team has lost them all (5.12 ERA, 1.81 WHIP). He has yet to go more than five innings. Meanwhile, Atlanta counters w/ veteran Bartolo Colon, who is hardly having himself a great 2017. But despite taking a loss back in April, Colon still sports a 3.52 ERA in 20 career starts vs. the Phillies. His last start is very misleading in the sense that seven of the nine runs allowed were unearned as his defense betrayed him that day. I'll call for the Braves to start to adjust to their new digs and revenge will be sweet Monday night. 10* Atlanta |
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06-04-17 | Astros -134 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Houston (3:05 ET): At this juncture, I can't see why you'd want to play against this Astros team. They won again yday (I had 'em) and are now 40-16, which is a better record than LY's Cubs had through 56 games. That was their ninth straight win and today they go for the sweep of the division rival Rangers, who are just 3-9 their L12 games following a relatively meaningless 10-game win streak. While the home team (Texas) gets a bit of a reprieve here knowing they no longer have to deal w/ the 1-2 combo of Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr (who won the 1st two games), Brad Peacock still gives Houston a pitching edge today over Martin Perez, who looks like the worst starter on the entire Sunday slate. I'm calling for the red-hot Astros to finish the sweep. Some of what I have to say here will be rehashed from yday's analysis. Something I was clear about at the start of the season is that after winning the AL West in 2016, the Rangers were likely to regress. That's only natural after winning 95 games despite a run differential of only +8. (They were 36-13 in one-run games LY, a MLB record). Sure enough, we currently find the Rangers below .500 and they are only 4-9 in one-run games. It was a 6-5 loss last night as the strikeouts continue to pile up. Two days after matching a MLB record w/ 20 K's against Boston, they struck out 18 more times yday. It has to be frustrating to score five times against a pitcher like McCullers and still lose. Texas fell into an early hole (5-1 after third inning) and that was too much to overcome. I expect the home team to fall into another hole today. Perez has some ugly numbers and last time out allowed five runs in five innings, resulting in a 10-8 loss to the Rays. The team's record w/ him on the bump is not good (3-8). So far, the Rangers are just 1-5 head to head vs. the Astros in 2017. Perez is going to have to face a lineup which is not only averaging 6.7 runs per game on the road, but also 9.4 rpg their last seven games overall. That should be more than enough for Peacock, who in two starts has a 0.889 WHIP and 16 strikeouts. He'd previously been dominant as a reliever. This Astros team is 20-6 on the road, including a perfect 7-0 when between -125 and -175 on the money line. 10* Houston |
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06-04-17 | Red Sox -180 v. Orioles | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
8* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox broke through w/ a win here in Baltimore yday, their 1st of the series. They got the "old" David Price on the mound, who didn't even allow a runner past first base until giving up a HR in the bottom of the seventh inning. As if facing Price wasn't brutal enough for the Orioles, now they must face Chris Sale, which seems just unfair. Sale has emerged as perhaps the top pitcher in the American League this season, his first in a Red Sox uniform. He's won his last five decisions and leads all of baseball (by a wide margin) w/ 110 K's. Additionally, he ranks in the top 10 in both ERA (8th) and WHIP (4th). Starting opposite Sale here will be Chris Tillman, who is simply no match. I expect Boston to emerge from this series w/ a split. The fact these two AL East rivals are seperated by just one-half game in the standings is misleading. Baltimore, 29-25 for the year, has been outscored by its opponents. They are also not far removed from a seven-game losing streak and are just 4-9 L13 games overall. Tillman was among the league leaders in net units at the betting window in 2016, but few anticipated he'd repeat that and sure enough his team start record so far is 2-3 this year and the numbers are even worse. After allowing five runs and seven hits in 2 2/3 IP (against the Yankees) his last time out, his ERA and WHIP are now 5.87 and 1.870 respectively. He missed the first five weeks of the season w/ a shoulder issue, so perhaps that's the reason for the decline. Whatever the reason, I expect him to struggle here against a Boston lineup starting to find its way (5.1 rpg on the road). Tillman has yet to go longer than six innings in any of his five starts. The scary thing for the O's here is that Sale wasn't even that dominant his last time out. He allowed six runs (five earned) and 10 hits in five innings to his former team (White Sox), in what was easily his worst outing of 2017. I fully expect to Sale bounce back here given the YTD resume. Last month, he dominated Baltimore, going eight innings and allowing just two runs and three hits. He also had 11 strikeouts. Looking at the strikeout number of the two starters today is striking. We already know Sale is the MLB leader in that department, at one point he had eight straight starts w/ 10+ K's, but Tillman's strikeout numbers remain poor. He hasn't had more than 4 in any outing this year. Big pitching mismatch today. 8* Boston |
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06-03-17 | Astros -163 v. Rangers | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
8* Houston (7:15): What was expected to be a pitcher's duel (Keuchel vs. Darvish) that would set the tone for this series instead turned into a one-sided affair last night w/ the Astros winning yet again. The AL West leaders have now won eight straight and have the same record through 55 games (39-16) that the Cubs did last year. Safe to say, this is the best team in all of MLB right now. To be fair, last night's game was a pitcher's duel two-thirds of the way w/ the teams' scoreless after four innings. It should be pointed out that there was a long rain delay as well w/ the game starting two hours later than expected. But, it was in the fifth where Houston finally broke through against Darvish, scoring three times and then they added four more off the bullpen, eventually winning 7-1. Having lost Darvish's start means real trouble here for the Rangers as a day after dealing w/ Keuchel, they must now face Lance McCullers, Jr while sending out Andrew Cashner themselves. Big pitching mismatch here. Texas had that 10-game win streak, but has gone just 3-7 since losing three consecutive series. Something I was clear about at the start of the season is that after winning the AL West in 2016, this team was set to regress. It's only natural after winning 95 games despite a run differential of only +8. (They were 36-13 in one-run games LY, a MLB record). Sure enough, we currently find the Rangers below .500. Theoretically, Darvish gave them a good shot yday at being the 1st team to beat Keuchel this year. But you can't say the same about Cashner going against McCullers. While he's won 2 of his last three decisions, previously Cashner had gone 10 straight starts w/o a victory (dating back to last year). Facing an Astros lineup that's averaging 8.6 rpg during the current win streak is a daunting task. Even in those four scoreless innings against Darvish last night, the Astros were able to get a runner on base every inning. Along w/ Keuchel, McCullers forms possibly the strongest 1-2 punch in any rotation in all of MLB. Perhaps no pitcher had a better May than McCullers, who was 4-0 w/ a 0.99 ERA. Opponents hit just .164 off him in five starts last month. After allowing just a single (unearned) run his first four May starts, McCullers actually looked a little human his last time out by giving up three runs (two earned) in 6 IP vs. Baltimore. Houston still won of course, 8-4. Earlier in the year, McCullers dominated the Rangers w/ 10 strikeouts in 6 1/3 IP. That was opposite Cashner, by the way. Even if McCullers is not at his best again tonight, does it matter w/ an Astros lineup averaging an insane 6.7 rpg on the road this year? The team is a perfect 6-0 as a ML road favorite of -125 to -175. 8* Houston |
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06-03-17 | White Sox v. Tigers -130 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
10* Detroit (4:10 ET): Coming into 2017, the White Sox were thought to be embarking on a total rebuild, signaled by them dealing ace Chris Sale to Boston. However, they got off to a surprisingly decent start, led by a pitching staff that was near the top of the AL in runs allowed. Skeptics such as myself didn't know how long that would last, however, and sure enough we've seen the Pale Hose twice allow 13+ runs in the last three games. One of those times was last night in a crushing 15-5 loss to the Tigers. Moving forward, I expect the downward slide to continue for Chicago as they've now three straight and 7 of their last 11. Detroit has won 3 of 4 and today's pitching matchup is an instance of one of those "immediate revenge" situations I like to speak of. What I mean by "immediate revenge" is you have two pitchers facing off for the second time in as many starts. Historically, you'll find it very rare that the same pitcher wins both matchups. Last Sunday saw Miguel Gonzalez and the White Sox defeat Jordan Zimmerman and the Tigers, 7-3. That loss could almost entirely be pinned on Zimmerman, who allowed all seven runs (gave up 3 HR's) and lasted only five innings. My thought is he'll pitch a lot better this time around. Last week's game was at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Zimmerman already has a 4-1 TSR here at home as opposed to 0-5 on the road. As for Gonzalez, Sunday marked just the second quality start in his L6 outings. So, I'd expect him to pitch significantly WORSE today. Then, there's this Tigers' offense. Yesterday saw them jump all over Chicago starter Derek Holland, scoring 10 runs by the end of the third inning. They finished w/ a season-high 11 extra base hits. Gonzalez is really no better than Holland and is 0-4 w/ a 6.56 ERA his L4 road starts. He also has a career ERA of 7.02 vs. Detroit in 12 appearances, 10 of those starts. So last time out was certainly a bit of an abberration for him against this opponent. Something else to consider for this rematch is that the Tigers are averaging a healthy 5.6 runs per game at home this year. The White Sox are 0-2 thus far in 2017 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. That includes Wednesday's loss to the Red Sox. I'm confident Zimmerman bounces back and the Tigers proved yday that they are the superior team. 10* Detroit |
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06-02-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Over the last two days, the Cardinals did something - twice - that the Cubs failed to do even once over a three-day span last week. That would be beat the Dodgers. In fact, the defending World Series Champs come into this series on an almost unthinkable six-game losing skid, having not just been swept by the Dodgers, but by the lowly Padres as well. That latter result simply "can't happen." This is now the club's longest losing skid under Joe Maddon and the 0-6 road trip was their first since 2012. But the Cubbies are back in the "Friendly Confines" today as the begin what is somewhat of a crucial series w/ their main rival. Despite the road trip giving us little reason to support them, I suspect this will be a nice bounce back weekend for the home team. Perhaps the Cubs forgot to "pack their offense" for the West Coast trip. In the six games, they scored just nine runs (shut out twice by the Dodgers) and on Wednesday, they managed only three hits against the Padres. Clearly then, this represents what I call a "buy low" situation on what still projects to be the NL Central winner. There's only one way for the Cubs to go here and it's up. It should be pointed out that they are averaging a healthy 5.1 rpg at Wrigley this season. After splitting six games w/ the Cardinals at Busch Stadium earlier in the year, this is their first time getting to host St. Louis. Having had yday off while the Cards were wrapping things up w/ LA seems to be an edge for the Cubs to me. They are 7-3 after an off-day this season. John Lackey will toe the rubber today, facing his former team. He's a perfect 5 for 5 when it comes to quality starts against St. Louis. His 1st start of this season was against the Redbirds and it resulted in a Cubs victory, 6-4, at the expense of the pitcher he'll again be facing today. That would be Lance Lynn, who admittedly is having a strong comeback season after Tommy John surgery put him on the shelf for all of 2016. But last time out saw Lynn struggle as he allowed four runs (tied a season-high) at Colorado. Granted, Lackey is off B2B similar showings, but Lynn has a career 4.76 ERA here in Wrigley and has lost three of his last five starts here. I look for the Cubs to break out of their slump this afternoon. They're still a very good ballclub even though they haven't shown that recently. 10* Chi Cubs |
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06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -116 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
10* Arizona (7:10 ET): Given the pitching matchup here, this line looks to be absolute steal & reminiscent of the plays involved in yday's 3-0 sweep. The D'backs, 33-22 on the season w/ a +54 run differential, will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Miami, just 21-30 (-22 run diff) and off a rare sweep (of the lowly Phillies), counters w/ Jeff Locke. Greinke's resume need not be rehashed here (but I will below!), but Locke (a 2013 All-Star) is making his first start of the season. Arm issues are what have delayed Locke's first start not just of 2017, but in a Miami uniform as well. This is a prime chance to face the Marlins as they're off the rare sweep, which came at the expense of the few teams below them in the standings. Arizona currently finds itself involved in a tight three-horse race in the NL West (w/ LA and Colorado) as the trio are all seperated by just one-half game. Only the Dodgers and Nationals have outscored opponents by a wider margin over the course of the season, among Senior Circuit clubs. The fact they can claim such marks while being "only" 7-4 in Greinke starts makes things look all the more impressive. Currently eighth in all of baseball in WHIP (0.995), Greinke is off a strong month of May and has won five of his last six decisions overall. The lone loss came his last time out where he uncharctertistically gave up five runs. But I look for him to bounce back and not just because lefties are batting .227 against hime while righties are at .210. He's also fifth in the NL in K's per nine innings (10.5) and has traditionally "owned" the Marlins w/ a 4-0 record and 2.89 ERA in eight career starts against them. Arizona also brings an impressive offense to South Beach. They are top five in both runs scored and slugging in all of baseball. So this is hardly an ideal lineup for Locke to face in his season debut. Locke, four years removed from his best season, has a sub-.500 career record to go w/ a 4.41 ERA. In five previous appearances vs. the D'backs, his ERA is 6.57. Getting back to the idea of this being an ideal situation to play AGAINST Miami, note that the sweep against Philadelphia was their first over any team since last August. The four-game win streak is a season-high and they'd previously failed to win B2B series at any point this season. That should counteract any lingering effect Arizona may have from having to go extra innings last night to beat Pittsburgh. 10* Arizona |
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06-01-17 | Brewers v. Mets -145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Thanks to a 7-1 loss yday, the Mets no longer have a chance to sweep the Brew Crew here in Queens. But I do envision them bouncing back for this afternoon's series finale to make it three out of four over the current (and surprising) NL Central leaders. I remain highly skeptical of this Milwaukee club being that they aren't anything special on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Now, the Mets are even worse in that department (in fact, they're tied for 28th in all of baseball), but today's pitching matchup is seems heavily tilted towards the home side and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted their number properly for that. Last time out, Milwaukee's Chase Anderson threw a gem, delivering 11 K's while allowing just one hit over seven scoreless innings. I don't see a repeat of that performance forthcoming, however. Why? Well, for starters, those 11 strikeouts posted in his last start matched the number of K's Anderson had in his previous three starts - combined. Two starts ago, he allowed three home runs and six runs total in a terrible showing against the Cubs. Notable is that start came on the road, while the last one was at home. In three career starts vs. the Mets, Anderson is winless w/ a 4.80 ERA. Prior to yday's win, the Brewers had dropped seven of nine. While their last series saw them earn a split after dropping the first two games (vs. Arizona), I don't see them being able to repeat the feat now that they're the road team. In five road starts this year, Anderson has a 5.54 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Moving forward, I'm highly suspicious of the team being able to maintain its current average of allowing just 3.8 runs per game away from Miller Park. Opposing Anderson here will be Zach Wheeler. He too is coming off a strong outing, a pitcher's duel w/ Gerrit Cole, where he allowed just three runs in six innings of work. That left him in line for the win, but sadly the Mets' bullpen blew the game. Still, Wheeler has proven to be the team's best pitcher outside of Jacob deGrom this year. While deGrom failed to get the job done yday (allowed SEVEN runs!), I think Wheeler can. I say that knowing full well he's allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts. Wheeler has pitched twice against the Brew Crew in his career and has a 1.54 ERA. He did not pitch in the series last month in Milwaukee that the Brewers swept. (Neither did Anderson). Look for the home team to bounce back today. 8* NY Mets |
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05-31-17 | Nationals -170 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
8* Washington (10:15 ET): Sparks have already flown in this series, which has seen the first place Nationals take the first two games from the disappointing Giants. It was Monday's game, a 3-0 Nats shutout, that provided the headlines. In that game, Bryce Harper and Hunter Strickland (a SF reliver) got into a brawl leading to suspensions being handed down. Obviously, that would be a net loss for the Nats if Harper were out, but he's not (currently appealing) and one has to wonder if his presence even matters tonight given the lopsided pitching matchup we have on tap. Harper was 0 for 5 at the plate last night and the Nats still won 6-3 thanks to 14 hits. With ace Max Scherzer on the bump tonight, they should finish off the sweep pretty handily. Schezer comes in w/ only a 6-4 team start record, but his WHIP is 0.936 and his ERA is 2.77. Those numbers even slightly improve out on the road (0.865, 2.60). Last time out, as you might expect, Scherzer dominated the lowly Padres. He struck out a season-high 13 batters while allowing just one run and three hits over 8 2/3 innings. Now you might say "that's San Diego." Well, the Giants have actually scored FEWER runs than San Diego this year and are 29th overall in MLB in crossing the plate. Additionally, they are 29th in team batting average and OBP. They're last in slugging. Scherzer has allowed 3 ER or less in all but one start this year & has double digit strikeouts in three of his last five trips to the mound. This is an ideal matchup for him. Meanwhile, I expect little out of Giants' starter Matt Cain tonight. He did pitch well last week vs. Atlanta, but did give up seven hits in 7 IP, so he was somewhat fortunate to get away w/ only allowing two runs. Of course, that was after he allowed seven runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 IP vs. St. Louis on 5.21. Unlike Scherzer, strikeout numbers remain low for Cain and he actually has a negative KW ratio over his L5 starts (14-15), which is never good. While the Nats continue to own the best record in the National League (still percentage points above the red-hot Dodgers), we need to come to grips w/ the fact the Giants are simply not a good team in 2017. Their -68 run differential is "topped" only by the aforementioned Padres (-87). The offense just isn't there right now and the team has dropped 7 of its last 10. 8* Washington |
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05-31-17 | Red Sox -149 v. White Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:10 ET): While today's pitching matchup might not be nearly as slanted in the Red Sox direction as yday's was, it still calls for a play. With Chris Sale on the mound Tuesday night, Boston rolled to a 13-7 win here at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. Ironically, it was more the Boston bats than Sale that led the way. In fact, it was probably Sale's worst effort in a Red Sox uniform. But, his offense picked him by scoring 13 runs on 16 hits, six of those being home runs! That's notable here b/c tonight's pitching matchup is less about who Boston has on the mound and more about playing AGAINST White Sox starter Mike Pelfrey, who remains one of the weakest pitchers in any rotation in all of baseball. Given how the Red Sox are swinging the bats right now, this should be an easy one. Last season saw Boston "lap" the rest of the league offensively, scoring - by far - the most runs in all of baseball. It was a slow start at the plate here in 2017, but I'm predicting that to change sooner rather than later. Why's that? Well, first off, despite being a somewhat pedesstrian 12th in runs scored so far, the team is not only third in batting average, but also 1st in on base percentage! Given those two rankings, one would reasonably conclude they're "due" to start scoring some more runs. We've already begun to see that w/ four games of 9+ runs in the L9 games. (They've averaged over 7.0 rpg during that stretch). Pelfrey should make things easy on them here as he comes in w/ a 4.41 ERA. The Red Sox will go w/ Drew Pomeranz, whose numbers may not excite you, but he's looked good lately. That includes his last time out when he held Texas to just two runs and four hits over six innings. He also struck out a season-high 11 batters. I, like a lot of people, have been downright stunned at the White Sox surprising start as this was expected to be a rebuilding year. Instead, they continue to hover around .500 (currently three games under) and have a run differential of +22. Key for them was ranking at or near the top of the American League in fewest number of runs allowed, but as we saw yday, that ranking is starting to slip and it's only a matter of time before the entire time follows suit. 8* Boston |
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05-31-17 | Rays -140 v. Rangers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (8:05 ET): The Rays appeared well on their way to a second straight victory in Arlington last night (would be have third straight win overall). Then the 7th and 8th innings happened. Over those two frames, the Rangers scored seven runs, thereby turning a 5-2 deficit into a 9-5 win. But tonight, we have a rather substantial pitching mismatch in favor of the visitors w/ Chris Archer opposing Austin Bibens-Dirkx. We know what the former is all about, but for the latter, this is his first big league start. Tampa Bay was better than its record last season (worst record in MLB in one-run games) and the same could be said for this season as they have a +24 run differential. Texas overachieved massively last season (36-13 in one-run games!) and I remain steadfast they are set to regress here in 2017. Archer, like his team, did not have a very good 2016. He actually was dead last in all of baseball in net units at the betting window. But I was quick to jump on the bandwagon this year, calling for a bounce back. While he's only 4-3 in 11 starts so far (6-5 TSR), he's posted impressive numbers in five of his last six trips to the mound, the exception coming against an opponent (Cleveland) that always gives him trouble. Archer struck out 11 batters his last time out en route to a 5-2 win where he lasted 7 2/3 innings and gave up only five hits. Over his last five starts, he now has 51 strikeouts and that's bad news for a Texas lineup that certainly "isn't afraid" to swing and miss. Remember there was a game last week (against Boston) where they struck out 20 times! They struck out another 10 times yday, giving them 65 in just the last six games alone. Unlike yday when starter Matt Andriese had to leave in the 2nd inning due to a groin injury, the Rays can be expect a long outing from their starter here as Archer has gone 7+ innings five times this season. Bibens-Dirks is a journeyman of sorts whose lone big league experience prior to this came in relief. He was called up two weeks ago and has made four appearances total. Two of those were 1 1/3 innings or less and the Rangers have lost each of the last three times he's worked. His last appearance, which saw him need 84 pitches to get through four innings, saw him allow three runs including two homers. I realize Texas has been a lot better at home this year, but the pitching mismatch is too sizable to ignore. 8* Tampa Bay |
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05-30-17 | Red Sox -168 v. White Sox | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:10 ET): The Red Sox lost to the White Sox yday, 5-4, spoiling what was David Price's first start of the season. This year's big free agent acquisition, Chris Sale, toes the rubber tonight. You might be shocked to learn that it is Sale's former team (Chicago) that comes into this game sporting a better YTD run differential (+28 to +25) despite being slightly below .500. I don't think anyone, myself included, thought that the White Sox would be among the AL leaders for fewest number of runs allowed at this juncture of the season. But look for Sale to show them "what their missing" here as I anticipate a dominant performance from MLB's leader in WHIP (0.808). Sale had been on a record-breaking pace in terms of strikeouts before a somewhat shaky start his last time out. What still ended up as a 9-4 win over Texas last Wednesday marked the 1st time in nine starts that the lefty failed to record at least 10 K's. He finished w/ "only" six and allowed four runs (three earned) in 7 1/3 innings of work. He is 4-0 here in May w/ a 49-8 KW ratio. He's allowed three runs or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year. This will be his 1st time starting against his former team, who he won 74 games for between 2010-16. Sadly for the White Sox, Sale may currently be having his best year ever. Not only does he lead all of baseball in WHIP, but he's #1 in opponents' on base percentage (.223). His MLB lead in strikeouts is almost preposterous as he has 23 more than the NL leader, Zack Greinke. Sale is just the fourth pitcher ever (Martinez, Schilling, Clemens) to post 100+ K's in his first 10 starts of a season. Somewhat ironically, Sale will face off w/ the now de facto ace of the Chicago staff, Jose Quintana. While Quintana has pitched well in the past against Boston, he's hardly coming off his finest effort here. In fact, it was a season-worst showing as he allowed eight runs in just 4 1/3 innings at Arizona. As formidable as the D'backs offense has been this year at home, remember, they don't have a designated hitter and Boston does. The Red Sox offense, which was by far and away the best in baseball last season, is due to start scoring more as they are 2nd in team batting average and 3rd in OBP. I just can't see Chicago beating Boston two straight times, especially w/ Sale pitching here. 8* Boston |
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05-30-17 | Phillies +106 v. Marlins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The Marlins avenged what was an abbreviated series sweep by the Phillies (two games) by winning yday, 4-1. It was their second straight win (1st time this month!) and third in the last four games. Given what was said in that last sentence, I think tonight would be a good time to fade them. The club posted a pair of three-game win streaks in starting 6-5 out of the gate this season, but since then has only won B2B games twice. Tonight's starting pitching matchup seems to be squarely in favor of the Phillies as well, making the ML all the more curious. Justin Nicalino projects to have as poor a start as any pitcher on the card Tuesday while the Phils' Vince Velasquez is better than the numbers show. Look for the road team to even this series. Just to give you a "lay of the land" w/ Miami, their Opening Day starter (Edinson Volquez) just won for the 1st time all season last night. Despite having won five of eight overall, the club is still only 8-18 in May. They have the majors' worst home record at 9-15. Injuries have decimated the starting infield. Compounding matters tonight is the fact Nicalino will be on the mound. His last start came on May 19th and not only did he allow a pair of home runs in four innings, he allowed five runs total in what turned out to be a 7-2 loss at the Dodgers. Through two starts, his walk rate is at a career worst 5.4 per nine innings. He's never been a high strikeout pitcher and having spent the better part of the last three seasons bouncing back between Triple-A and the big leagues, his numbers overall aren't getting any better. Miami is just 6-12 off a win this season. Now Philadelphia is nothing to "write home about" either as they've dropped 23 of 29 to fall to 17-32 on the year, which is the worst record in all of baseball. But I believe Velasquez can be the difference tonight. He turned in a quality start against the Marlins earlier this year and is also off perhaps his finest showing of 2017 as last Thursday saw him hold the Rockies to just a single run in 5 IP. He also had seven strikeouts against just one walk. Overall, he's been better on the road as his ERA is roughly a point and a half lower. The Marlins have been one of Velasquez's favorite opponents through the years as he is 2-0 w/ a 2.96 ERA in four career starts against them. 10* Philadelphia |
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05-29-17 | Tigers v. Royals -105 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): After a busy week (played eight games including doubleheader Saturday), this is not a very good spot for the Tigers, who have to stay on the road for a third consecutive series. They are facing a team that just got done playing three straight road series itself and while the Royals were the victims of my 10* Game of the Week Sunday (lost 10-1 to the Indians!), this is a far better team at home than on the road and I feel they are not being adequately priced due to the slow start to the season. Detroit is just 11-17 on the road and getting outscored by more than a full run per game. The offense typically goes in the "toilet" outside of Comerica Park w/ a collective .224 batting average. Yesterday saw them fail to even put a single runner on base through six-plus innings as they were held to three runs or fewer for the sixth time in the last nine games. Go w/ the home team here. The Tigers did end up scoring three times w/ six hits Sunday, but it wasn't nearly enough as they fell behind the White Sox 6-0 early. Aside from splitting the doubleheader on Saturday, the club hasn't won since Wednesday and has dropped seven of its last nine overall. Thanks in no small part to an incompetent bullpen (6.07 ERA on the road!), they've allowed the most runs in the entire American League this year w/ only the Mets and Padres over in NL having given up more. Starting tonight will be Daniel Norris, whose 1.621 WHIP isn't exactly pretty. Norris did pitch pretty well his last time out (at Houston), but hasn't been able to string together B2B quality efforts since his first two starts of the season. The Royals were bludgeoned yday, but that was after taking the first two games in Cleveland. Without question, it has been a bad start to the season, but at least the team is above .500 at home (9-17 on the road) and for the month. Starting for them today will be Jason Hammel, who has been a massive disappointment coming over from the Cubs. His TSR is 1-8 and the lone win was May 5th. But he is off a quality effort at Yankee Stadium last week where he allowed just three runs in 6 IP. He also finished w/ a season-best 7 K's. Situationally, there is a massive edge for KC in Monday's opener as the Tigers may very well be "sucking on fumes" at this point. 10* Kansas City |
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05-29-17 | Brewers v. Mets -130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (4:10 ET): Typically, a team coming off the Sunday night game (in a day game, no less!) would give me pause, but given the way the Mets performed last night, I'll look past that. They have revenge here after being swept by Milwaukee earlier this month at Miller Park. The Brew Crew are currently your surprise leaders in the NL Central (yes, they are ahead of the Cubs), but I do not anticipate that lasting too long as this team is middle of the road in terms of runs allowed and 26th in WHIP and opponents' batting average. Doesn't sound like a sustainable blueprint to me. After losing five in a row, Milwaukee did post B2B wins over Arizona this weekend, but in breaking down this matchup, what really surprised me is that the Mets are every bit the equals of the Brewers offensively. Look for revenge to be sweet in the Big Apple Monday afternoon. We got a glimpse of the "old" Matt Harvey last night as "The Dark Knight" turned in his best pitching performance of 2017 by going six innings and allowing just one run. Hopefully, some of that rubbed off on today's starter, Robert Gsellman. In addition to having a hard to pronounce last name, like Harvey, Gsellman is looking to bounce back from a bit of a rough stretch (6.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP L3 starts). But we did see some improvement his last time out, albeit against the lowly Padres, as he turned in a quality effort by allowing just three runs in 6 IP (Mets still lost 6-5). Save for one bad start against Atlanta, Gsellman has allowed exactly three runs in each of his other four home starts. He didn't exactly perform well against Milwaukee earlier this month, but again, that was on the road. The Brewers offense averages about a full run less per game on the road than they do at Miller Park. It's not like Brewers' starter Matt Garza comes into this game in fine form either. Last time out, he allowed three home runs and six runs total in a loss to Toronto. That was at home mind you when the Blue Jays were w/o the DH. He has a 4.60 ERA in five career starts vs. the Mets. Prior to the series earlier this month, these teams hadn't actually played since June of last season. So it's been a LONG time since the Mets have beaten the Brewers (June 10, 2016). This will actually be the Brew Crew's first stop at Citi Field in a little over a calendar year! The revenge angle is big here as is the fact I'm just not a believer in the Brewers. 8* NY Mets |
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05-29-17 | Dodgers -108 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (2:10 ET): Cardinals pitcher Mike Leake likely deserves far better than a 5-4 team start record given his NL-best 1.91 ERA and a 0.929 WHIP. But this will be his second straight start facing off against the Dodgers and Rich Hill. Though this angle failed me twice last week in the Royals-Yankees series, historically, it has been a big winner. The angle being taking the pitcher who lost the first meeting if facing the same pitcher for a second straight start. Furthermore, the Dodgers come in off a very impressive sweep of the Cubs where they posted B2B shutouts Friday/Saturday before winning 9-4 Sunday. Though not even in first place in their own division, a case could be made for the Dodgers being the best team in baseball right now (MLB best +78 run diff). I'm on them in this series opener. The Dodgers took two of three from the Cards in last week's series. This Leake-Hill matchup was the lone loss. Hill did not pitch well at all, issuing seven walks while giving up five runs in just 4 IP. It was his worst start of the year and bad enough to make one wonder just how big the blister issue really is. But I fully anticipate a bounce back effort here. Though just 1-1 liftime against St. Louis (six starts), he's held them to a .202 batting average. The Redbirds come into today's game having scored an average of just 3.25 runs over their last eight games. They managed only seven runs total over the weekend and that was at the most hitter-friendly park in MLB (Coors Field). Leake was at his best last week at Chavez Ravine, but I'm still not all that impressed w/ his strikeout numbers. He hasn't registered more than five in any of his L5 starts. Behind him, there are some significant issues w/ the team, namely defense and the bullpen. The latter, Matt Bowman specifically, gave up four runs in the bottom of the eighth Sunday. That makes it 29 runs allowed by the Cards' pen over the L11 games. The defense also remains bad, for a second season in a row. They are tied for the fourth most errors in MLB and only two teams have a worse fielding percentage. That absolutely matters in today's game. Bottom line is that the the Dodgers, winners of 9 of their last 11 games, are playing at a much higher level right now than are the Cardinals, who have lost 8 of their last 11. 10* LA Dodgers |
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05-28-17 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:10 ET): I remain pretty much astounded at how subpar Cleveland has been at home so far. Following yday's loss, they are 8-13 at Progressive Field, which is the worst home record in the American League. Only Miami (7-15 at home) is worse among National League clubs. They're now facing the prospect of getting swept here by the last place Royals after blowing leads each of the past two days. Friday saw an early 4-0 lead quickly evaporate into a 6-4 defeat while Saturday's 2-1 lead became a 5-2 loss. As a reminder, the Royals are - easily - the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. Meanwhile, the Indians are tied for the third fewest runs allowed in the A.L. They shouldn't be giving up this many runs, at home. I'll call for them to avoid the sweep here. The Tribe was projected to run away with the AL Central this year. But that's not happening due in large part to the team's struggles here at home. After sweeping the American League's best (Houston) last weekend on the road, it's been downright head-scratching to see them drop four of five to the Reds and Royals w/ all but one of the losses taking place here at Progressive Field. Josh Tomlin pitches today, looking to erase B2B poor starts. The last time he won may have been May 6th, but it was against KC, whom he held to just one run and three hits in seven innings of work. That improved Tomlin's all-time record to 9-4 against the Royals. Though he's given up some runs lately, a 27-2 KW rate over his last seven starts indicates that this is a pitcher w/ a decent skill set. The Indians have not been swept here at home by the Royals (in a series of 3+ games) since 2003. That's a long time. So history is on their side and so too is the fact that KC is 28th in team batting average, OBP and slugging. That's in addition to being last (30th) in runs scored. They are just 5-11 in day games this season. There have been just two times so far that they have posted win streaks of more than two games. Both times saw them playing at home. Danny Duffy will toe the rubber today as the team looks to win for a fourth straight time w/ him on the mound. Duffy was a hard luck loser (1-0) when he faced Cleveland earlier this year and it's worth noting he has an 0-4 TSR vs. the division so far in 2017. I just can't see the Indians being swept here. 10* Cleveland |
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05-27-17 | Diamondbacks -136 v. Brewers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:10 ET): Neither Arizona nor Milwaukee was expected to be a legit contender in 2017, yet both started off the season well. However, of late, they've been trending in opposite directions. The D'backs have won five in a row while the Brew Crew have lost five in a row and that includes a pair of wins by the road team here in Miller Park the last two days. With a significant pitching edge today (Zack Greinke), I see this trend continuing. Arizona is now #2 in all of MLB in run differential (+60!), trailing only the division rival Dodgers. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a curious 12-15 at home. With a lineup minus Ryan Braun already scuffling, I don't see them having many answers for Greinke today. Each of the last four times Greinke has taken the mound, the D'backs have won. He has a 0.66 WHIP in May and last time out, he was downright dominant. He came one out shy of a complete game and allowed just one run on four hits while striking out a season-high 12 batters. Miller Park is a place Greinke used to call home (from 2011-13) as a member of the Brewers' roster and during that time he always dominated here. In 26 career starts in this ballpark, he is 16-2 w/ a 3.07 ERA. He's currently working on a 12 2/3 inning scoreless streak against his former team. With this edition of the Brew Crew having scored just nine runs total in the last four games, it seems like an ideal matchup today for Greinke. Benefiting from betting pitch framing this season, Greinke's strikeout rate is up to a career best 29.9 percent. Overall, Arizona has won 10 of its last 11. The pitching staff ranks a surprising 2nd in opponents batting average (.232), but the offense has also done its job by scoring the third most runs in all of baseball. So I like their chances today against Chase Anderson, who checks in w/ a 7.71 ERA and 2.071 WHIP his L3 starts. He was hammered his last time out, giving up six runs in just four innings at Chicago. He has fewer strikeouts in his last three starts combined than Grienke did his last time out alone. Unlike Arizona, the Brewers' pitching staff has simply not gotten the job done this year. They are dead last in opponents' batting average (.269) and 29th in quality starts. The offense, now dormant, carried the team early on. But are they fortunate to rank 4th in runs scored? Considering they are just 13th in team batting average and 16th in on base percentage, I'd say yes. 10* Arizona |
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05-27-17 | Royals v. Indians -160 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:10 ET): I think its fair to say that the Indians have been a slight disappointment so far in 2017. Coming off their first American League pennant in 20 years, they've started just 24-22 and aren't even in first place of a division that were expected to run away with. Most confounding of all is the team's 8-12 record here at Progressive Field. Despite jumping out to a 4-0 lead last night, the club lost again, to the Royals no less. Allowing a six-run rally to the lowest scoring team in all of MLB certainly is not a "good look" for the Tribe, but nevertheless I anticipate them bouncing back today w/ Danny Salazar on the bump. A rare error by SS Francisco Lindor was the key play in last night's game and something like that is certainly not likely to happen again. Back to back offensive outbursts from the Royals have been rare this season. Consider that while last night marked the third time in the past five games they scored six times, they've totaled just two runs off the previous two occurrences. Last time in the situation, they were shutout by the Yankees on Wednesday. Not only does this team rank dead last in MLB in runs scored, but they are also 28th in team batting average, OBP and slugging. While Salazar has struggled a bit here in the month of May, he did have one relatively good outing against the Royals where he struck out seven in 4 2/3 innings and gave up just two runs. This is a talented pitcher that I believe is likely to turn things around sooner rather than later. Last night, the Royals got a bullpen performance that was reminiscent of their B2B runs to the World Series. Their relievers held the Indians to just three hits over six scoreless innings. But for the year, the bullpen has a 5.67 ERA and 1.590 WHIP in road games. Cleveland's bullpen has been much better w/ Chad Allen (13.7 K's per nine innings) and Andrew Miller (0.72 ERA) leading the way. It was really too bad that starter Mike Clevinger wasn't able to hold the lead last night. Another factor that has me on the Tribe here is performance in day games. They are 10-5 while the Royals are 4-11. KC will be starting Jason Vargas, who has an 8.10 ERA his L2 starts, both against the Yankees. His career ERA against the Indians is 4.33. 8* Cleveland |
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05-26-17 | Rays -133 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (8:10 ET): The surprising Twins (in first place in the AL Central!) had the day off Thursday after an impressive sweep of Baltimore, in Camden Yards no less. But upon their return home, they'll have to deal w/ Chris Archer in this series opener w/ the Rays. Tampa Bay has been a bit streak of late, going WWWWLLLWW over its previous nine games. The last two wins, including a shutout yday, came at the Angels' expense as they were able to salvage a split of a four-game series at home. The Twins, surprisingly, have a losing record at Target Field and I see a somewhat massive pitching mismatch here. Considering I'm not a believer in Minnesota, I say go w/ Archer and the Rays in this one. No starter lost more units at the betting window in '16 than did Archer. But many, myself included, tabbed him for a bounce back season here in '17. Things certainly started out well for him as the team won each of his first four starts this season. But since then, they've dropped five of six w/ him on the mound. There was one bad outing (at Cleveland), but in his other three May starts his KW ratio is a sick 34-3! I expect him to pitch well here considering a 5-1 record & 1.73 ERA in six career starts vs. Minnesota. That's his second lowest ERA against any opponent that he's faced at least five times. Here at Target Field, he's been really good w/ a 3-0 record and 0.98 ERA, which is the second lowest ERA for any pitcher w/ at least three starts in the park's history. I don't see Twins starter Hector Santiago matching up well here. He has a 6.90 ERA and 1.813 WHIP his L3 starts, including his own terrible outing against Cleveland. Santiago's strikeout numbers can't even compare to those of Archer as the former has just TWO total in his last two starts! Over his L4 starts, he has a NEGATIVE KW ratio of 10-11. That's terrible. Something I find interesting is that despite the Rays being "only" .500 and the Twins being seven games over, it is TB w/ the better overall run differential (+23 vs. +4). That indicates to me that Minnesota is a little lucky to be where they're at right now. They've actually been outscored by 0.7 runs per game at home so far. 10* Tampa Bay |
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05-26-17 | Mariners v. Red Sox -172 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): Both of these teams treated me well on Thursday as I had the Mariners Under + the Red Sox, both easy winners. Seattle winning 4-2 at Washington was certainly a surprise though, given what had happened to them not just the first two games of that series, but the previous four games overall. A five-game losing skid had seen the M's get outscored by a stunning 41-5 margin by the White Sox and Nats. Therefore Boston, fresh off a sweep of Texas, has to be licking its chops here. The Red Sox offense seems to have rediscovered 2016 form w/ 38 runs scored during a four-game win streak. You have to like their chances then going up against the embattled Yovani Gallardo, whose continued presence only serves to reinforce how injured this Mariners rotation is. Seattle isn't a good road team either (8-18 away from Safeco Field). Gallardo was absolutely bludgeoned his last time out, giving up 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings. The final result was White Sox 16, Seattle 1 and that's what begat the M's losing skid. Obviously, a performance such as that will negatively skew all numbers, but the bottom line here is that Gallardo simply is not very good. He has a 5.28 career ERA vs. Boston including two poor starts (w/ Baltimore) last season. He probably shouldn't be counting on his offense for much support here either considering yday's four run output matched what they'd done the previous four games - combined. Seattle isn't just losing on the road this season, they are losing badly as is evident by the fact they're being outscored by 1.3 runs per game away from home. Boston will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the bump in search of his fourth straight win. Rodriguez has become something of a "stopper" in the Red Sox rotation as all of his previous eight starts have come after a team loss. His team start record is 6-2 and he's coming off six consecutive quality starts. His last one was his longest stint of the season as he went eight full innings at Oakland and allowed just three runs in an easy 12-3 win. That performance dipped his WHIP to an impressive 0.85 his L3 starts overall. If this one were to come down to the respective bullpens, that's a big edge for Boston, especially w/ Craig Kimbrell, who has retired 33 of the past 34 batters he has faced and not allowed a single hit to a right-handed hitter ALL SEASON! 8* Boston |
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05-26-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -144 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Blue Jays have surprisingly handled the Rangers each of the previous two seasons, winning 14 of 21 head to head matchups and eliminating them from the postseason both times. This will be their first time meeting since last year's LDS, which ended up being a three-game sweep. Given the way that this season started, the playoffs had to be the furthest thing from Toronto's mind. But a seven-game road trip that took them through three cities, two of them National League, just ended w/ a three-game win streak. Texas, back at .500 despite recently winning 10 in a row, is heading in the other direction after being swept at Boston. I like the Jays in this series opener. Don't be fooled by Rangers' starter AJ Griffin having a 6-1 team start record as his ERA is 5.02 and his WHIP is 1.195. He suffered his first loss last time out when he got shelled for nine runs in 3 1/3 innings (allowed 4 HR's!) by Detroit. He only has three quality starts to his credit and so far he's gotten to face a pretty weak slate of teams (including Oakland three times!). Toronto saw its bats come alive a bit as they averaged 5.1 runs per game on the recently completed road trip. Now they need to focus on producing at home. Increasing the likelihood that will occur is the fact that both members of the right side of the team's starting infield - third baseman Josh Donaldson and SS Troy Tulowitzki - are expected back in the lineup for the 1st time since April. That duo being back will also aid the team in the field obviously. Meanwhile, Texas has some problems at the plate right now. They struck out 20 times yday in Boston and are batting a collective .218 on the road this season. That's good news for Blue Jays' starter Mike Bolsinger, who has yet to win any of his previous three trips to the mound. None of the three have been particularly good either, but I see him performing better than Griffin here. Griffin has allowed a total of seven home runs his last two starts and behind him is a Rangers' pen which has an unsightly 6.94 ERA and 1.910 WHIP on the road. 8* Toronto |
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05-25-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -139 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
8* Los Angeles (10:10 ET): Well, I sure was wrong firing on the Dodgers last night (they lost 6-1), but I'll still come back with them here, citing many of the same reasons in did in yday's analysis. They still have the best run differential in MLB (+60) and that's due in no small part to the fact they are beating opponents by an average of more than two full runs per game here at Chavez Ravine. So consider last night's result to be nothing more than an abberration. Tonight's starter Kenta Maeda owns a 0.986 WHIP at home so far, so he should be more than able to tame a Cardinals lineup which is already only batting .229 its last seven games. Going into last night, the Dodgers had won five of six overall and had held the opposition to three or fewer runs in 13 of the past 17 games. What happened yday was starter Rich Hill had all sorts of control issues (seven walks!) and they ran into a hot pitcher, Mike Leake. But still, no team in the National League has allowed fewer runs than this one. Maeda has a misleading ERA here at home (4.07) as his WHIP (as stated above) is 0.986. He's coming off the DL here, but over his last three starts, he has a 2.21 ERA and 0.836 WHIP. Last time out (May 10th), he was a couple of outs shy of a complete game, while holding the Pirates to just two runs and five hits. Cardinals' pitching has also been really good of late w/ tonight's starter Michael Wacha coming off six shutout innings of four-hit ball his last time out. But the team still lost that game, 6-5, and his TSR is just 3-4. Certainly, you can't place all of the blame on Wacha for that record, but something else to consider here is that he's only pitched away from home twice this year and his WHIP is 1.50. The Dodgers are too good to drop B2B home games, something they have not done in over a month. 8* Los Angeles |
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05-25-17 | Rangers v. Red Sox -185 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:10 ET): After winning 11 of its previous 12 games, the Rangers have come here to Beantown and dropped two in a row, by scores of 11-6 and 9-4. They figure to give up plenty of runs yet again in this evening's series finale given that they are turning to Nick Martinez, who I've given the lowest grade of any starter this week. Martinez comes in off a good outing and his overall numbers are by no means atrocious. But he's facing a lineup that has scored 32 runs total the last three games and his ERA/WHIP on the road this season are 5.51/1.592 respectively. So there's certainly hope here for Boston starter Drew Pomeranz, who is winless over his L3 starts. I'll call for the Red Sox to finish off a sweep here as these teams are set to trend in very opposite directions. Last night, the Red Sox were actually trailing 3-1 heading into the home half of the seventh inning. But that is when they exploded for seven runs, which was more than enough w/ Chris Sale still pitching. As mentioned above, this lineup is beginning to rediscover 2016 form w/ 32 runs scored over the last three games. That trend should continue here against Martinez, who hasn't made it past the sixth inning in any of his L5 starts. That likely means trouble given the major problems going on in the Rangers' bullpen right now. On the road, their relievers have posted a woeful 6.98 ERA and 1.900 WHIP this year. Last night obviously did not help in that department. This team is only 8-15 in road games so far, giving up an average of 5.2 runs per game. It's not just Martinez and the bullpen that Texas fans need to be concerned about here. The defense has also been bad in this series. It hasn't helped that their pitchers have six wild pitches and a balk either. Current Boston hitters are batting .373 lifetime against Martinez. As for Pomeranz, while he's struggled of late, he did have six strikeouts in four innings his last time out and gave up just two runs (one earned). If this one comes down to the respective bullpens, then it's a no contest as the Red Sox relievers have posted a 2.60 ERA here at Fenway. 8* Boston |
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05-24-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -163 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): A sizable gap is starting to form in the National League West as three of the top four run differentials in the Senior Circuit belong to teams from this division. So too do the two worst. There's already a 7.5 game gap between the two groupings. Despite being in third place currently, the Dodgers are still my call as the West's top team. They actually have the best run differential in all of MLB (+65) thanks in large part to having allowed the fewest number of runs (165). St. Louis has allowed the second fewest number of runs in the N.L., so true to form these teams played to a 2-1 final last night, a game which featured a total of just seven hits (in 13 innings!). It's another strong looking pitching matchup tonight, but I again have to side w/ Dodger Blue as they're outscoring foes by an impressive 2.4 runs per game here at Chavez Ravine. Overall, the Cardinals have now dropped five of six to fall from their perch in the NL Central. The way they lost last night was particularly gut-wrenching as they'd tied the game in the top half of the ninth only to still lose in extras. Even w/ Mike Leake on the bump tonight, it's highly unlikely that they will keep this Dodgers lineup in check to the degree they did last night. LA actually went 11 innings between runs, a Yasmani Grandal HR in the 1st and then the GW double by Logan Forsythe. Leake may be 8 for 8 in terms of quality starts this year, but he's facing a lineup that averages 5.6 runs per game at home. Leake has also struggled against the Dodgers in his career (4.26 ERA in 10 games), including a 5.25 ERA in a pair of games last year. I also seriously doubt he'll be able to maintain an opponents' batting average of .000 (0 for 18) w/ two outs & RISP. The Dodgers, conversely, have won five of their last six games. In 13 of the past 17 games, they've allowed three runs or less, which is really impressive. Rich Hill is the starter tonight. Due to a blister issue, he's made only three starts in '17. His last one was the best as he allowed just one run and six hits in 5 IP w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. Unfortunately, it was a hard luck 2-1 loss that day for the Dodgers. Hill is a lefty and traditionally southpaws have been an issue for the Cardinals' (mostly) righty lineup. This season, St. Louis is just 3-6 when facing a LH starter. I just really like this Dodgers team and feel they are set to "take off." 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-24-17 | Pirates v. Braves -124 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Braves pitcher Julio Teheran finished last season w/ a 10-20 team start record, but that was highly misleading considering he also posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. Lack of run support, more often than not, doomed him in 2016. Thus, I quickly tabbed him for a bounce back 2017. That hasn't really taken place yet as his TSR is 3-6 and his ERA/WHIP are both significantly WORSE than last year. But I'm not ready to abandon ship. Three times this year, he's held the opponent w/o an earned run. Last time out was NOT one of those occasions as he was tagged for NINE runs in just three innings by Toronto in a season-worst showing. I expect him to bounce back from that tonight, however, as Atlanta aims to make it three in a row over the Pirates. One of the three times Teheran didn't allow an earned run this year came against this Pirates team, back in the second start of the year. Unfortunately, he did allow two unearned runs that day and the Braves lost 6-5. That series (at PNC Park) would see the Bucs go on to sweep, but it's been a complete 180 of that so far here at Sun Trust Park. Atlanta has taken the first two games of this four game set, 5-2 and 6-5. I took them in Monday's opener and then last night featured a three-hour rain delay before a wild ninth inning which saw both teams score twice. Losing in such a fashion does no favors for the road team here as finishing up at 2 AM ET is no fun when you lose. As I said in Monday's analysis, I feel that the Braves are being underrated by the oddsmakers here as they actually have a better run differential than Pittsburgh, who is down to -36 for the year (Atlanta -19). The Braves have actually now won 9 of 12 and what's really impressive about that is they've been w/o their best hitter, Freddie Freeman. But Matt Adams, acquired last week from St. Louis, has come in and paid dividends. He's homered twice in three games and supplied the GW hit last night. I like the offense's chances tonight against struggling Trevor Williams, who's likely to be sent packing from the rotation after this start anyway (Jameson Taillon set to returm). In four starts so far, Williams has a 6.58 ERA and 1.390. I realize Teheran has struggled in the Braves' new stadium, but he's due to improve and has a 3.00 ERA in eight career appearances vs. the Pirates. Braves are the better team here and have the better starting pitcher. 10* Atlanta |
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05-23-17 | Indians -165 v. Reds | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Not that it's time to worry (yet), but the defending American League Champions are certainly underachieving over the first two months of 2017. Following a 5-1 loss to the Reds last night, they're just 23-20 for the year and trail surprising Minnesota by one game in the Central Division. Making what happened last night all the more frustrating is the fact the Tribe was coming off an impressive three-game sweep of the Astros, in Houston no less. The loss came to a team that had dropped eight of nine as well. An unlikely quality start from Scott Feldman was the catalyst for Cincy last night, but the pitching matchup looks to be - squarely - in favor of Cleveland tonight. I'll call for them to bounce back behind Carlos Carrasco. The Reds' rotation is dead last among NL teams in both ERA and innings pitched. So Feldman's performance last night was definitely a revelation. But don't expect a repeat from tonight's starter, Amir Garrett, who sports a 5.17 ERA in seven starts. Last time out, he was charged w/ six runs in just four innings of work and it was the third time in four starts he allowed multiple home runs. As much as Cleveland has scuffled at the plate thus far, they should be able to get to a pitcher like Garrett. They've hit lefties better anyway this season. The Indians are also 0-4 in Interleague play thus far, something you would NOT expect given the AL's year to year dominance in IL play. On the runs allowed side of the ledger, the Indians are just fine. They've allowed only 173 runs in 43 games, good enough for second best in the entire American League (trailing only Houston). His last start aside, Carrasco remains a good option to have on the mound. He still sports a 2.60 ERA and 0.884 WHIP and on the road he's been especially dominant by winning all four starts w/ a 1.35 ERA and 0.675 WHIP. Carrasco left his start early, not just due to ineffectiveness, but also pectoral tightness. However, everything has checked out and he'll be working on more than a week's rest here. Expect a quality start and the better team to take care of business. 8* Cleveland |
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05-23-17 | Royals v. Yankees -142 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Kansas City lost for me yday, 4-2, and the final run they gave up (in the 7th) was critical as I had them on the run line (+1.5). Now they find themselves in the opposite situation of last night as the pitching matchup is another revenge-filled affair, but this time in favor of the Yankees. Granted, the situation did not work out the way I had hoped last night, but it remains time-tested and furthermore, I think it's become quite clear that the Yanks are simply the better team here anyway. Not only are they 26-16 w/ an AL-best +57 run differential, but they're also 7-1 head to head vs. the Royals since the start of last season. KC has now fallen to 18-26 overall (6-15 on the road) w/ an AL-worst -47 run differential. So these teams are "worlds apart" right now. Last Thursday, the Royals were able to avoid a sweep (at home) by beating the Yankees 5-1 behind a sparkling effort from left-hander Danny Duffy, who threw seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball while striking out 10 batters. It marked the seventh time in nine starts that Duffy allowed 2 ER or less and what's really impressive is that he hasn't allowed a home run since his second start of the year, back on April 8th. But, as noted in yday's analysis, pitching really hasn't been the problem for the Royals this year. Offense has. They come into tonight having scored - by far - the fewest number of runs in baseball while also ranking 28th in team batting average, slugging and OBP. Another issue here is that the bullpen is a lot worse on the road w/ a 6.29 ERA and 1.660 WHIP. So, unless Duffy is spectacular again, the chances of a KC win here seem slim. The pitcher Duffy beat last Thursday was Joe Montgomery. The two match up again here. Montgomery allowed all five runs the first go-around and the team is only 1-4 his L5 starts. But as I've stressed numerous times before, it's rare for a pitcher to beat another in two straight starts. Yes, it just happened last night, but the Yankees being the far superior team had a major hand in that. The NY offense has actually gone five straight games w/ 8 or fewer hits, but I don't see that lasting, even against Duffy. This lineup averages 6.3 runs/game in the Bronx and just hit 3 HR's yday. That last start from Montgomery was easily his worst of '17, so I see him bouncing back as opponents are batting just .216 w/ RISP against him. 10* NY Yankees |
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05-21-17 | Brewers v. Cubs -183 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Unlike Cincinnati (whom the Cubs swept earlier this week), Milwaukee seems to have emerged as a worthy challenge for the throne in the National League Central. The Brew Crew currently lead the division w/ a 25-18 record and their +34 run differential would seem to indicate that record is no fluke. Battling through rain, they took Friday's series opener here at Wrigley, 6-3, for their fourth straight victory (Saturday rained out). But I like the Cubs to bounce back today w/ Jake Arrieta on the mound, even though the former Cy Young winner has NOT been his usual dominant self so far in 2017. But counterpart Chase Anderson has struggled recently as well and I still believe what I said during the Reds series (had Chicago every game!) and that's order is soon likely to be restored in the NL Central. Arrieta's start to the season was emblematic of how he's pitched throughout his tenure w/ the Cubs. He was 2-0 w/ a 2.89 ERA after three starts, but then in his last five, he's posted a 7.27 ERA and won just once. However, that one win did come here at the "Friendly Confines" as he held the Phillies to only three runs in 6 IP back on May 3rd. He's had some tough assignments recently, having to pitch at both Coors Field and Busch Stadium his L2 starts. Throughout his career, Arrieta has seemed to have the Brewers' number, posting a 3.00 ERA in 13 starts. That includes a win earlier this season where he limited them to three runs on three hits in seven innings of work. He also recorded a season high 10 K's in that game. Milwaukee might be a "better team" now than they were when they lost to Arrieta back in early April, but they dropped two of three to the Cubs in both previous series this year. It's been a long time since Anderson received a decision and a big reason for that is he's simply not going very deep into games. Only once all season has he lasted more than six innings. That was way back on April 12th. He has a 6.13 ERA and 1.977 WHIP his last three starts and last time out, the team ended up losing to lowly San Diego. I project a big day at the plate for the Cubs Sunday afternoon. 6* Chi Cubs |
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05-21-17 | Nationals -166 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:35 ET): When I took Atlanta (on the run line) Friday, I never thought they'd be in the position they now find themselves in coming into Sunday. That would be having a chance to "return the favor" against the Nationals for a three-game sweep suffered last month. Not only did the Braves end up winning for me Friday, 7-4, but they also beat Max Scherzer yday 5-2 thanks to hitting three home runs! Making these consecutive wins all the more unlikely is that they've coincided w/ the loss of the team's best hitter, Freddie Freeman, for the forseeable future. They've now hit SIX home runs in this series and will welcome Matt Adams (acquired in trade w/ St. Louis) into the lineup today. But I don't see this power surge continuing and beating Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg in consecutive days seems unlikely. Go with the Nats. The Nats have now lost four in a row going back to the series in Pittsburgh. They've given up far too many runs during this time (28!), but that's where Strasburg comes in. Every start but one has been quality this year and he's generally owned Atlanta in his career (6-1, 2.33 ERA L8 starts). Earlier this year, Strasburg faced them on the road and allowed just two runs and six hits in seven innings of work. He also struck out a season-best 10 batters. Most importantly, he didn't give a HR there. For the year, he's allowed just four, which is what the Nats need right now as their staff has allowed NINE during this four-game losing streak. Four-game losing streak aside, I still fully expect Washington to run away w/ the NL East this year. No other team in the division is currently above .500. Atlanta is actually their closest competition, but remains six games back. The Braves have struggled in their first year playing at SunTrust Park, giving up an average of 5.9 runs per game. Speaking of former Cardinals, today's starter Jaime Garcia is one. He's allowed four runs in B2B starts and has more walks (14) than strikeouts (11) his L3 starts, which is never a good sign. This will be just Garcia's second start at the Braves' new stadium, so no edge there. His first came against lowly San Diego, so there's little takeaway from that. The current losing skid is the Nats' longest of the season, but MLB's top offense in runs scored, batting average and slugging should get to Garcia. 8* Washington |
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05-19-17 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Padres | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
10* Arizona (10:10 ET): The Padres have been surprisingly competitive against the D'backs so far in 2017, taking three of the seven games that have been played thus far (all in April). But that record nor the price range listed by the oddsmakers here is indicative of the rather giant chasm that exists between these two NL West rivals. Especially when San Diego has arguably the worst starter in the entire National League going tonight. That would be Jered Weaver, who has been every bit as bad "as advertised." On a similar note, the Padres have sunk to the bottom of the MLB standings w/ a 15-28 record and have now been outscored by 72 runs (also a MLB worst) thus far. An additional edge for Arizona here (not they needed one) is that they had Thursday off while SD did not. Following a three-game sweep of the Mets (at home), the D'backs are now 24-18 w/ a run differential of +34. Among National League teams, only the Dodgers and Nationals have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. Expect that differential to continue growing this weekend. An offense that is already one of the most prolific in the sport (top 8 in runs scored, batting average, OBP and slugging) now gets to face the terrible Weaver, who is winless in eight starts (0-8 TSR) w/ a 6.05 ERA and 1.344 WHIP. He does come off - easily - his best start of the year as he held the White Sox to one run in six innings. But at home, he's been a disaster w/ a 9.69 ERA and 1.769 WHIP. His previous two outings here at Petco have seen him allow a total of 17 runs in just seven innings of work! He didn't fare too well pitching at Arizona earlier in the year either; allowing five runs in 5 2/3 IP. His signing in the offseason was much maligned and now we see why. His velocity continues to be way down and strikeout numbers are virtually non-existent. The D'backs will counter here w/ Taijuan Walker, who in contrast has been an excellent addition to the rotation. Ironically enough, Walker's best start of 2017 to date came opposite Weaver back on April 27th. He went eight innings and allowed just two runs on four hits while striking out 11 batters. The Padres lineup managed all of five runs total in three straight losses to Milwaukee. They are dead last in both team batting average and OBP, not to mention 28th in runs scored and 26th in slugging. This series, particularly tonight's opener, shapes up as a complete mismatch. 10* Arizona |
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05-18-17 | White Sox v. Mariners -159 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): This is an absolutely terrible spot for the White Sox and not just because they are having to hand the baseball to Dylan Covey, arguably the worst starter in all of MLB. Last night down in Los Angeles, the team held an early 4-0 lead, but then allowed the game's next 12 runs and ended up being swept by the Angels as a result. Coming off a game like that, they're in dire need of a quality start and the problem there is Covey is simply not the man for the job. Through six starts, he remains winless w/ a 7.98 ERA and 1.875 WHIP. Therefore, I'm willing to lay the juice w/ a relative unknown, Sam Gaviglio, who starts here for Seattle and is making just his second career big league appearance. The Mariners got a career-best outing from Christian Bergman last night (pitched into the 8th inning) and Jean Segura extended his hit streak to 16 games in a 4-0 shuout of the A's. Really, that series should have been a sweep for Seattle, but on Tuesday they allowed five runs in the top of the ninth (2 HR's) to lose 9-6. The bullpen is definitely a concern up here in the Pacific Northwest, but the good news is that the team is much better at home. They're 12-6 at Safeco Field this year including 6-1 in the -125 to -175 price range. Offensive production rises to roughly 5.5 runs per game at home. The team had been swept in Toronto prior to taking two of three from Oakland. I look for this weekend to continue the positive homestand as Chicago is averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road. Before getting swept by the Angels, the White Sox were actually tied for the fewest number of runs allowed in the American League. For the life of me, I can't understand how as this rotation is bad save for Jose Quintana. As long as the likes of Covey, Mike Pelfrey and Derek Holland continue getting regular work, expect the losses to start piling up on the South Side. In this spot, I project Covey to have as bad a start as any pitcher all weekend. Covey did rack up a career-best 9 K's his last time out, but that was against San Diego and he still allowed two HR's and gave up three runs in just 4 1/3 IP. Only one time in his six starts has Covey made it to the sixth inning and there he gave up six runs. This should be a good weekend for the home team, starting tonight. 8* Seattle |
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05-18-17 | Marlins v. Dodgers -180 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Marlins are prime fade material right now. It's bad enough that they were just swept at home by Houston (I was on the Astros yday), getting outscored 22-4 in the process. But going back further reveals this club has dropped 17 of 21 overall including eight of the last nine games. Injuries have played a key role w/ three infielders currently on the disabled list. Due to the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez during the offseason, we knew this starting rotation would struggle (Wei-Yin Chen was their Opening Day starter!), but things have been even worse than expected thus far. Can't see the Fish turning things around this weekend in Chavez Ravine where the Dodgers have outscored visitors by an impressive 2.5 runs per game. Like Miami, the Dodgers went into yday afternoon facing the prospect of getting swept. Unlike Miami, they instead came through (w/ Clayton Kershaw on the hill), beating the Giants 6-1. To me, LA is a team much better than its record. They now own the NL's best run differential (+55) thanks in large part to the dominance exerted here at home. I was stunned to learn that they went just 1-6 against the Marlins last year, including a four-game sweep here at Dodger Stadium. Don't look for history to repeat itself this weekend however. Rather, I wouldn't be at all surprised if things went the other way and the Dodgers took all four games. Tonight's two starters have a combined record of 2-11. But the difference between Edinson Volquez and Hyun-Jin Ryu is the latter is backed by a far superior team. Ryu is coming off a "rocky" start, pardon the pun, at Coors Field last week. But in his two starts prior, he'd allowed just one run each time out. As for Volquez, the Marlins are 1-7 w/ him on the mound this year. While his first start back from a stint in the DL went well enough, it was against Atlanta and the team still lost. He doesn't figure to pitch nearly as well tonight considering Los Angeles is batting .277 at home. Don't be surprised if the Dodgers, who have allowed the fewest number of runs in all of baseball, go on a big run during this 10-game homestand. 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-18-17 | Reds v. Cubs -188 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Prior to this series commencing, I predicted that "order would be restored" in the NL Central. Sure enough, the Cubs have won both games so far w/ me taking them each time. Whereas they pulled away late in Tuesday's opener, last night saw them jump out to an early 7-2 lead, which was more than enough for starter Kyle Hendricks. Troubling for the Reds is that the World Champs were able to score seven times on just six hits (did draw six walks) and that was while going 3 for 10 w/ RISP. Today, I'll call for the Cubs to complete the sweep behind Jon Lester, who is 3-1 in 10 career starts vs. the Reds w/ a 3.72 ERA. A 3-5 team start record is quite misleading for Lester as he has FIVE no-decisions and a 1.44 ERA and 0.960 WHIP here at Wrigley. Prior to the start of the season, if someone would have told you that the Reds would come into this mid-May series w/ a better record than the Cubs, you may have told them to have their head examined. Yet, shockingly, that was the case. But as alluded to above, order is beginning to get restored in this division. Cincy has now dropped five in a row, all on the road. As previously discussed, a "home-heavy" early part of the schedule certainly played a role in the club's surprisingly decent start. But, again, I point to the fact that most felt this would be one of the worst teams in all of baseball prior to the start of the season. Having to start the likes of Amir Garrett was indicative of that projection. Recalled from Triple-A for this game, Garrett has an unimpressive 7.16 ERA and 1.592 WHIP his L3 starts for the big league club. The Cubs offense has seemingly come alive in this series w/ 16 runs scored in the first two games. I expect that to continue this afternoon. In games where they face a lefty starter (Garrett is a southpaw), they are averaging a healthy 6.3 runs. Key for the Cubs has been drawing walks; they are #1 in all of MLB in that category right now. Despite a poor batting average, Kyle Schwarber has actually reached base in every game he has started since May 2nd. Remember, a walk is just as good as hit. Garrett has issued 11 free passes his L3 starts while also allowing 5 HR's (wind expected to be blowing out to right field this afternoon). Meanwhile, Lester has allowed four or fewer hits in all four home starts this season. The Cubs are now 32-11 head to head vs. the Reds since the start of the 2015 season. 6* Chi Cubs |
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05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs -164 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): I was on the Cubbies yday and sure enough they came through w/ a relatively easy 9-5 win. If you go back and read my analysis, you'll note that I started off w/ the assertion that this will be a series where "order is restored" in the National League Central. It was nothing short of jaw-dropping that the Reds came in w/ the better record given the respective ends of the spectrum these two teams were projected to be at, prior to the season starting. The Cubs are nowhere near as mediocre as their record shows while the Reds have been "playing over their heads" these first 38 games. At home, the Cubs show "who's boss" once again tonight. Over the last few seasons, the Cubs have owned the Reds. They went 15-4 against them last season and are 31-11 head to head since the start of 2015. So far in '17, they've taken three of the four matchups. Today, we have Kyle Hendricks on the bump. After a somewhat shaky start to the year, he's seemingly regained LY's form. His ERA is 1.52 over the L4 starts even though he comes off a hard-luck loss at Colorado last week. In that last start, Hendricks allowed allowed all three runs (only two earned), but on just four hits and struck out seven. His last home start came against the powerful Yankees and saw him toss 5 1/3 shutout innings. He's allowed three runs or less in five of seven starts overall. Good news for him tonight is the Reds' offense has begun to "scuffle" w/ an average of just 3.4 runs scored over the last eight games. The regression that I project to take hold of Cincinnati has really already begun as they've dropped four in a row. A "home-heavy" schedule definitely played a role in the surprising start to the season. Entering today's play, no team has played fewer road games than have the Reds (16). Starter Scott Feldman pitched for the Cubs during the "rebuilding days," but there's a reason he's not a part of their rotation any longer. Sadly, he was signed by Cincy in the offseason to be their Opening Day starter. While he's off B2B quality starts, including a CG shutout, both came against the Giants' weak offense. His last start that didn't come against the Giants saw him allow seven runs in just four innings (against the Pirates). In my opinion, the money line here should be closer to -200. Surprisingly good value on the Cubs so far in this series. 8* Chi Cubs |
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05-17-17 | Astros -163 v. Marlins | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
8* Houston (12:10 ET): The Astros have dominated the first two games here in Miami, winning 7-2 and 12-2. The most impressive things about that is - despite being w/o the DH - the offense hasn't skipped a beat. In retrospect, last night's ML was a "steal" considering Dallas Keuchel was on the bump. But today's starter Lance McCullers is no slouch either and has emerged as one of the top #2's (in any rotation) in all of baseball. McCullers comes into Weds afternoon sporting a 2.98 ERA and 1.117 WHIP and the team has won six of his eight starts overall. Traditionally, the AL has owned Interleague Play through the years and these two clubs are emblematic of that. Houston is 31-13 vs. the National League the L3 seasons (4-0 in '17) while Miami is 15-34 L3 seasons (2-7 in '17). This should be an easy afternoon winner. Houston has the best record in baseball right now at 28-12 (won last six series) and w/ a 1-2 punch like Keuchel and McCullers at the front end of the rotation, it's looking like they're going to run away w/ the AL West. McCullers hasn't allowed an earned run in 13 IP and comes in w/ a 0.93 ERA and 0.828 WHIP his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he went to Yankee Stadium and shut out a very prolific offense for six innings, allowing just four hits. He also finished w/ a 7-0 KW rate. A Miami offense which has scored only eight times total in the L4 games should be no match for him. The Marlins are in a really bad way right now as they've dropped 16 of 20 overall and are 1-7 on the current home stand. They managed only four hits last night. Converted from a relief role, starter Jose Urena has shown some promise in two starts, but he alone cannot overcome the massive talent gap between these two teams. Remember that last week saw the Marlins lose THREE infielders for an extended period of time. When looking at Urena's numbers, also keep in mind he's gotten to face the Braves and Mets, two of the NL's worst offenses. Houston averages 5.9 rpg on the road and will be by far the best lineup Urena has faced so far in 2017. 8* Houston |
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05-16-17 | Dodgers -150 v. Giants | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:15 ET): After taking last night's series opener, the Giants have now won four in a row, their longest win streak of 2017 so far. But their YTD run differential (-57) remains very poor (2nd worst overall) and they're still eight games below .500. What appears to be the biggest pitching mismatch on Tuesday's card is in favor of the Dodgers and being severely underrated by the oddsmakers. Los Angeles is actually #3 in all of MLB in run differential right now (+51), so what we have here is a team underperforming in terms of wins and losses against an opponent that's overperforming. Even w/ the win streak, the Giants have been the worst team in baseball over the L100 games. Before the current win streak, they were only 1-11 off a win this year. Making his return to the bump tonight for the Dodgers is Rich Hill. He's spent the last month on the DL (blister), so he's made only two starts so far. Clearly, I'm anticipating a more joyous return from the DL than what the Dodgers got last night from Brandon McCarthy. I can base that on Hill's history against SF, which includes a 2.70 ERA in eight career starts. The Giants are batting just .224 so far against lefty starters. The offense is 28th in runs scored and on base percentage while ranking dead last in slugging. So this is an ideal spot for Hill to make his return. P.S. The Dodgers are allowing the fewest number of runs per game in all of baseball this year. The Giants counter w/ Ty Blach, who is still in search of his first big league win. He's made four starts and three of them have been pretty promising. The one that wasn't (5.6 at Cincinnati) was on the road. But his low strikeout numbers are a concern. In 22 IP, he has only FIVE K's. That's almost unheard of. He's yet to register more than two strikeouts in any start! His first career start came against these Dodgers back on 4.25 and while he allowed only two runs in five innings, he came out a hard luck loser to Clayton Kershaw (no shame there). It should be pointed out though that his L3 starts have come against the Reds (2) and Padres, who should wind up being the two worst teams in the entire Senior Circuit. LA is 11-5 off a loss this year. 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-16-17 | Reds v. Cubs -185 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): I expect this to be the series where reality sets in for the Reds and for order to be restored in the National League Central. Shocking is the fact Cincinnati comes into this series w/ the better record of the two teams (by one game). They were of course projected to be the second worst team in all of baseball (ahead of only San Diego). The Cubs, coming off their first World Series win in over a century, were projected to be the best. But they are one game below .500 right now after losing B2B games to the first place Cardinals. Cincy just dropped three in a row though (at San Fran), so already that "reality" I spoke of has begun to set in. Love the Cubs here in the season opener behind John Lackey. Not only were the Cubs beaten Sunday, but for a second time in the last four games, they were shutout. Thankfully, they're already 2-0 this season after being blanked the previous game. This week offers up an opportunity for the offense to get back on track as it's a string of mediocre to bad pitchers they'll be facing, starting here w/ Bronson Arroyo. Don't be fooled for a second that the Reds have won Arroyo's last five starts. His ERA and WHIP are 5.95 and 1.321 respectively and both numbers get even worse on the road (7.71, 1.786). Low strikeout numbers don't impress me either. He has just 9 K's total his L3 starts and six time in seven outings, he's struck out four or fewer. He allowed two home runs (both solo shots) his last time out. Arroyo's best start, ironically, did come against the Cubs back on 4.23. He outdueled Lackey, but that was at Great American Ballpark and I like revenge to prevail in this rematch. Lackey is off his finest showing of the season to date as he struck out 10 in seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball seven days ago. That was at Coors Field, mind you, important because it shows he can prevail in a hitter-friendly environment. It was just the second time in Coors Field history that a visiting pitcher came in and struck out 10+ hitters in seven innings or less. The wind is expected to be blowing out tonight at Wrigley, which probably favors the home team. Certainly, it won't favor Arroyo. Last year saw the Cubs go 16-3 head to head against the Reds and they should go back to dominating them here. 6* Chi Cubs |
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05-15-17 | White Sox v. Angels -168 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Very quietly, the White Sox are currently tied w/ Cleveland for the fewest number of runs allowed among American League teams. Therefore, you might conclude that their 17-18 record is a bit disappointing. But let's keep things in their proper perspective, shall we? The Pale Hose were not expected to be a contender in 2017 as the Chris Sale trade was a clear indicator that the future, not the present, is the focus here on the South Side. Quite simply, I do not envision the club continuing to be so stingy on that side of the ledger. Tonight, they venture into Anaheim where they have NOT fared well in recent years (1-6 since start of 2015). In a battle of teams that won Sunday, I'm siding with the home team who has actually been even stingier when it comes to runs allowed over the past week. We've already started to see regression from the White Sox in terms of runs allowed. They allowed an average of 5.3 runs per game over the past week and having Mike Pelfrey on the bump this evening isn't likely to help reverse the trend. Pelfrey, who grades out as one of the AL's weaker starters, has yet to go deeper than 5 1/3 innings in any of his four starts. He's winless (1-3 TSR) w/ a 5.21 ERA and 1.421 WHIP. What plagued him w/ Minnesota continues to plague him in a new uniform and that's a simple inability to strike batters out. Incredibly, he has more walks (7) than K's (6) in those four starts this year. Needless to say, having only six strikeouts in four starts is really bad. So is simply having Pelfrey in your rotation. Since 2011, he's just 22-53 overall w/ four seasons of 10 or more losses. Angels starter Jesse Chavez isn't going to exactly set the world on fire, but he's a better option than Pelfrey. Chavez has faced the White Sox numerous times in his career and owns a 3.07 ERA against them (14 appearances). The converted reliever has said he "prefers starting" and he's allowed 3 ER or less in every start thus far. The Angels are coming off a split w/ another AL Central club, Detroit, over the weekend. We know that Los Angeles will have the best player on the field Monday and sure enough Mike Trout is in fine form right now, having homered in three consecutive games. Despite missing six games, Trout already has 11 HR's on the year. The Angels are a lot better at home (12-8) than they are on the road (7-13). 8* LA Angels |
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05-14-17 | Philadelphia Phillies - Game #2 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 -186 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): The last time we checked in w/ the NL East leading Nationals, it was for an Over play in Monday's series opener at Baltimore. It cashed, but overall that series didn't go that well for the club as they dropped two of three. Mother nature has since intervened with the scheduling postponing two of the last three scheduled games including Friday here at home vs. the Phillies. That's forced the division rivals to play a doubleheader Sunday and regardless of what happens in the 1st game, I like the Nats to take the nightcap w/ Max Scherzer on the hill. Through seven starts this year, Scherzer has a 0.884 WHIP and he's always had Philly's number. In 12 career starts against them, he's 8-1 w/ a 2.19 ERA. Game 2 should be an easy one for the home team. Last night was the first time Washington had played in three days and they won when Bryce Harper (who just signed a record-setting contract) hit a walkoff home run in the bottom of the ninth. That capped a six-run rally for the Nats, who initially trailed 4-0 after five innings. You have to think that's a blown opportunity for the underdog Phillies, who don't figure to get off to a similar start against Scherzer. I would definiitely call Scherzer's 4-3 team start record "misleading" given the WHIP that I already mentioned and the fact he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts overall. He's been racking up a ton of strikeouts as well w/ a total of 22 over his L2 starts. Scherzer has already beaten the Phils once this year, his first start of '17, holding them to two runs and four hits in 6 2/3 IP. Scherzer beat Vincent Velasquez that day (4.7) and those two will face off again Sunday. Velasquez is off a bad showing against these Nationals last week where he allowed six runs in seven innings. So, he's 0-2 against them already this year, having given up 10 runs in 11 IP. Not a good sign, clearly. In his career, he's pitched 33 1/3 innings vs. the Nats and allowed 30 hits. So they've always given him fits. It certainly doesn't help his case that they come into Sunday ranked 1st in MLB in runs scored, team batting average, on base percentage and slugging. Overall, Philly has lost eight of its last nine games and the downward trajectory continues tonight. 8* Washington |
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05-14-17 | Mets -138 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (2:10 ET): Things are not stellar right now in Queens. You have the ongoing Matt Harvey saga + the Mets have now lost three in a row. Things have not gone well here in Milwaukee w/ losses of 7-4 and 11-4 the L2 days, but this afternoon marks the 1st time where the oddsmakers are expecting them to come through. That obviously has a lot to do w/ who's pitching. Jacob deGrom gets the baseball Sunday and while he had one so-so outing so far against Atlanta (Mets still won 16-5!), other than that, he's been pretty much "lights out." One could not say the same for Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta, who carries a 5.30 ERA and 1.514 WHIP into this game. He's been even worse here at Miller Park and he's failed to last more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his L4 starts. One thing I really like w/ deGrom is - save for that Atlanta start - he's been posting some really high strikeout totals of late. He's fanned 10 or more batters in four of the previous five starts, including 11 his last time out, a 4-3 Mets' win over the Giants. All told, he has 51 K's in his last 30 2/3 IP. Past results for him against Milwaukee have been mostly positive w/ a 2.32 ERA in five starts (3-1). Now, the Brewers' offense has been on fire of late, but note they were held to only one run (on five hits) their last time in this situation, Thursday, when they were attempting to sweep the Red Sox here at home. And that came against a far less accomplished starter (Eduardo Rodriguez) than deGrom. Something else to pay attention to is that it seems as if the Brew Crew are fortunate to be #2 in MLB in runs scored. I say that due to the fact they are just 14th and 15th respectively in team batting average and on base percentage. Cluster luck! Prior to yday, the Mets had given up 10+ runs in a game only one other time this year. It was that disastrous 23-5 loss to Washington on April 30th and they were able to come right back and win the next day. I see the same thing playing out here. It certainly helps facing Peralta, who has been just dreadful over the course of his last four starts (7.71 ERA). Even worse for him is the fact that the three bad starts have all been here at Miller Park. Though off to a surprisingly good 20-17 start overall, the Brew Crew are only 11-11 at home. The Mets' offense has scored four or more runs in 14 of its previous 15 ballgames! So they should (theoretically) "get to" Peralta today. 10* NY Mets |
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05-14-17 | Twins v. Indians -153 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): Coming into the year, the Indians (defending AL Champs) were expected to run away with the Central Division. While I still see things playing out that way, it's been an admittedly pedestrian start. Recent play, in particular, has been quite disappointing. After only managing to split six road games w/ Toronto and KC (AL's two worst teams), the Tribe returned home, only to drop a pair of games against AL Central rival Minnesota. They've scored only one run in this series as offense continues to be a problem. But I don't think it will be today as they've had the number of Twins' starter Hector Santiago in the past. In 15 career appearances vs. Cleveland (10 starts), Santiago has a 4.77 ERA against Cleveland. Home team avoids the sweep here. Minnesota is of course trying to pay Cleveland back for what happened in the Twin Cities last month. The Tribe swept the Twins at Target Field 4.17-4.20 and that played a big role in me fading them in opener of this series (always love the revenge angle when a team was swept in previous series vs. opponent). That and Minnesota had Ervin Santana pitching. Santana shut out the Indians and then the less heralded Jorge Barrios was able to do the same yday as Cleveland has managed only six hits this entire series! The lone run scored by the Indians in this series came via a wild pitch. But there's just too much talent up and down this lineup for this lack of production to continue. Santiago has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season, but he's had control issues w/ 12 walks total in his L3 starts. Looking for a silver linining, Cleveland's pitching has been great in this series. They've held Minnesota to just five runs in the two games. The game's only run scored Friday was a Miguel Sano HR. The Twins have just 11 hits total in the series and in the five games vs. Cleveland this year, they've scored only 12 runs, never more than four in any one game. Cleveland starts Trevor Bauer today and while he's certainly struggled at times, he did beat Minnesota back on 4.20, giving up just two runs on three hits in 6 2/3 IP. It's - by far - Bauer's best start of the season to date. Previous to today, The Indians have twice lost three in a row. Both times, they came back to win the next game. In fact, over the L3 seasons, they are 17-5 when on a losing streak of three games or more. 8* Cleveland |
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05-13-17 | Orioles v. Royals -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals are a team you won't find me endorsing too often this season, but I like the spot here. They beat Baltimore Friday, 3-2, and now face a significantly weaker pitcher in Chris Tillman. Yes, I know Tillman was the O's ace last year as well as #3 overall (in MLB) at the pay window in units earned (+13.7). But after starting 2017 on the DL, he's due to regress. While he did throw five shutout innings in his first start back (Sunday), Tillman also walked three batters. I see him getting outpitched here by KC's Nate Karns, whose two starts so far at Kauffman Stadium have resulted in a 0.75 ERA and 0.667 WHIP. The Royals bullpen has also been much better at home this year as has the entire team (as opposed to 5-16 in road games). Buck Showalter seems to be "doing it again" as he has the Orioles in first place in the AL East w/ a 22-12 record. Only Houston has a better overall record. But as has been the case before, this club is by no means as dominant as its record might seem to indicate. They've outscored opponents by only 12 runs all year and are 13-3 at home (just 9-9 on the road). Their record is largely a byproduct of an AL-best 8-3 record in one-run games. But we saw them lose one last night, so I'm figuring now is an opportune time to bet against them.Their hitters have also been striking out a lot recently as in 34 times the L3 games alone. They plated only two runs yday and never led. For KC, Karns is coming off B2B outstanding outings. Last time out, he struck out a career-high 10 batters, so the # of strikeouts by the O's (reference above) certainly could be a factor tonight. Karns also allowed just two runs in 6 1/3 IP as the Royals beat the Rays 7-3 Monday. Before that, he tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball against the White Sox while striking out seven. So he's definitely in fine form coming into tonight. Speaking of fine form, Eric Hosmer is leading the Royals' offense right now w/ a .403 batting average the L16 games. Admittedly, this lineup has struggled much of this season, but they'd scored six or more runs in their last three wins prior to Friday and it was a big confidence builder, I think, for them to win a low-scoring game like last night. KC is not as bad as they looked early one while Baltimore is not as good. 10* Kansas City |
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05-13-17 | Braves +114 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 114 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): I'm still willing to throw my support behind Braves' hurler Julio Teheran despite his disappointing start to 2017. Coming off his very unlucky '16 (10-20 TSR despite 3.21 ERA & 1.053 WHIP), I tabbed Teheran as one of two pitcher likely to have a bounce back campaign this year (Chris Archer being the other). So far, that really hasn't panned out though as his TSR is 2-5 w/ a 4.69 ERA and 1.513 WHIP. Sadly, the Braves are just 3-12 since the start of last season in Teheran starts where he does NOT factor into the decision. That all being said, Atlanta won here yday and Teheran's trials and tribulations are nothing compared to what's going on in Miami right now. The Marlins, decimated by injuries, have lost four in a row and 13 of their last 16 games. The Marlins' rotation has been in a state of flux due to multiple injuries. In the wake of the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez, we knew this group was likely to stuggle. But the early returns have been worse than expected. De facto #1 starter Wei-Yin Chen is still on the DL. Tonight's starter Edinson Volquez, himself off a stint on the DL, has offered little in the way of relief w/ a winless record in six starts (1-5 TSR). Volquez has lasted six innings only once. His 56.9 strike rate ranks near the very bottom of the league among qualifed pitchers and he's issuing 6.9 walks per nine innings thus far, more than double last year's rate when he was w/ the Royals. In the three starts before going on the DL, Volquez produced an unsightly 2.308 WHIP. The Marlins are also currently working with a real "skeleton crew" on the right side of their infield. Third baseman Martin Prado as well as two shortstops, Miguel Rojas and Adeiny Hechavarria, were all lost to injury over the past week and will miss extended time. Teheran, like Volquez, has a high BB rate. But he should enjoy pitching tonight in Miami as he has 0.93 ERA in three road starts. Having just snapped their own six-game losing skid, Atlanta should have a nice weekend overall here and scoring eight runs yday was a nice start. Meanwhile, the Marlins are just in a terrible way right now and I don't see them solving Teheran, who is long overdue for better results. 10* Atlanta |
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05-12-17 | Reds v. Giants -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants can't seem to get out of their own way as they dropped last night's series opener to the Reds, 3-2. Twice they blew a one-run lead before giving up the GW run in the top of the eighth. They actually out hit the Reds as well (11-7). Frustrating result and I'm not just saying that b/c they were my 10* Game of the Week. The loss drops them to 0-4 this season vs. Cincinnati (swept last weekend), who I am firmly committed to NOT believing in. Yes, the Reds are now 19-15, but this was a club projected for the bottom of the MLB standings prior to the start of the year. Fortunately, tonight we have Johnny Cueto on the bump for San Fran, in an "immediate revenge" spot against the pitcher who beat him his last time out, Scott Feldman. You might wonder why I'm so excited about playing Cueto against Feldman here given the latter threw a CG shutout (four-hitter) when they faced off on Sunday. Well, I consider that performance from Feldman to be nothing more than a "mirage" as in his previous start, he'd lasted only four innings and gave up seven runs. This also isn't Great American Ballpark. As I said in yday's analysis, the Reds have benefited from a home-heavy schedule to start the year, one that has seen them play 22 of their first 33 games at home. That's the highest percentage of home games for any team in baseball. On the other hand, the Giants played 21 of their first 35 games on the road. That's certainly not the only reason they've struggled, but it's definitely a contributing factor. Cueto had more strikeouts than Feldman on Sunday (10 to 5) and is certainly the more accomplished pitcher here. His only two "bad" starts thus far have come at Colorado and Arizona, two of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league. His two home starts were both quality and more importantly for our purposes, wins as well. The Reds are Cueto's former team remember, so pride is in play here as he certainly doesn't want to lose to them twice in a row. These "immediate revenge" (same two pitchers facing off in B2B starts) are among my favorite spots in baseball handicapping as it's really hard to beat the same pitcher twice in a row. Five of the Giants' 12 wins this year have come w/ Cueto on the hill. 8* San Francisco |
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05-11-17 | Reds v. Giants -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Hey - the Giants actually won a game! They came from behind (scored four runs in the 9th) to beat the Mets yday afternoon and put to bed a five-game losing streak. Coming off that emotional high, tonight is a GREAT spot to take them as they return home seeking revenge against a Reds club that swept them in embarrassing fashion last weekend. In Cincy, San Fran was outscored 31-5, which was just a stunning result. Including what happened in that series, the Reds have surprised by winning 8 of their last 10 games. But let's not forget the preseason projection for this team as they were forecasted to be the 2nd worst team in baseball, ahead of only San Diego. I know that the Giants, ironically enough, currently own the worst record in baseball. But, this is a clear cut case of being able to "buy low & sell high" at the same time. A variety of issues, injuries among them, have contributed to this shockingly poor start by the Giants. But a win like the one they had yday certainly can have a carryover effect. Being back at home should help too. Of their 35 games played so far, only 14 have taken place here at AT&T Park. For the Reds, it's been just the opposite. Out of their 33 games played, only 11 have taken place on the road. The home vs. road effect should also have a significant bearing on tonight's starting pitching matchup. While still winless, San Fran's Ty Blach pitched well both times he's started here at home. His ERA and WHIP are 1.50 and 0.833 respectively as he's allowed only two runs and seven hits in 12 IP. Meanwhile, Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo has worked twice on the road and the results have been very ugly (11.25 ERA, 2.25 WHIP). Both starts were in St. Louis and he allowed 10 runs in just eight innings of work. Now Blach was hammered last week at Great American Ballpark, giving up 10 runs in just three innings. But, as I just mentioned, he's been a different pitcher at home. Aside from the two big outputs vs. SF last weekend, the Reds' offense has been held to five runs or fewer in the other eight of its last 10 games. Arroyo was by no means dominant in his start against the Giants last weekend as he allowed three runs in just 5 1/3. I feel that this weekend is just "screaming" for the Giants to get back on track. 10* San Francisco |
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05-11-17 | Twins v. White Sox -125 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to make this play Wednesday, but Mother Nature would not allow it. With the same starting pitchers scheduled for Thursday, I'm sticking w/ it. The White Sox took an early 2-0 lead in Tuesday's series opener, but from there it was all downhill as the Twins scored the game's final seven runs. It was two big innings from the visitors, a three-run fourth and a four-run sixth. That result has to be especially disappointing for Chicago as Minnesota was w/o both Brian Dozier (injured) and Miguel Sano (suspended). Now losers of four in a row, the White Sox will try and get back on track here w/ lefty Derek Holland on the mound. He seems to be a more reliable option compared to Tuesday's starter Mike Pelfrey and the Twins are going with Phil Hughes, whose 5-1 team start record is quite misleading given that he has a 4.32 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. I'm on the home team here. The White Sox, admittedly, have had their issues offensively. They finished w/ only four hits in the series opener, but I feel it's likely they get things going here at Hughes' expense. Hughes is a low strikeout pitcher (just 21 K's) and he's allowed at least four runs in half of his six starts this year. He's coming off a season-high in innings pitched (6 2/3) his last time out, so don't be surprised to see him regress tonight. The Twins, despite having a winning record, have actually been outscored this year and prior to this series had gotten their "lunch handed to them" in a pair of ugly losses to the Red Sox (outscored 28-7). Behind Hughes, I really don't trust a Minnesota 'pen that has a 4.79 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the year. Holland already faced Hughes once this year and was outdueled in a 3-1 loss. But save for one bad start at Yankee Stadium, Holland has been the more consistent of tonight's two starting pitchers. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five of his six starts and in those five he's gone at least six innings while allowing five or fewer hits! Last time out, he held the Royals to just two runs (one earned) on three hits over 6 2/3 IP, a game the White Sox won 8-3. Holland struck out seven in the win, which is one-third of the number of K's Hughes has for the year. Over his L3 starts, Holland has produced a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. The White Sox have won all three times. 10* Chi White Sox |
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05-10-17 | Royals v. Rays -187 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Kansas City has taken the first two of this three-game set here at Tropicana Field, but the Rays' Chris Archer should put a stop to that Weds night. Archer was actually the biggest money-losing starter in all of basball in 2016 (-15.6 units), but I wisely called for a bounce back this year. The season started out well for Archer as the team won each of his first four starts. But they've since lost the last three. Only one of those losses can be pinned on Archer, however, and I see him having little difficulty shutting down what has been MLB's worst offense over the first month-plus. The Rays were sloppy in a 7-3 loss Monday night, committing four errors and striking out 16 times. Then last night saw them blow a four-run lead and lose in extra innings. Clean up the mistakes and Archer will take care of the rest! It's very unusual to see KC score seven runs in B2B games. As I already mentioned, they have been - by far - the worst offensive team in baseball this year. They are not only dead last in runs scored, but they're at least 25 runs behind every other team but one (Giants). Furthermore, they rank last in team batting average (.215) and OBP (.278). They're 29th in slugging (.340). Coming into this series, they weren't even batting .200 on the road and had just two wins away from Kauffman Stadium. They did sweep one series last month (at home vs. the Angels), but other than that, they've not won three straight games at any other point this season. So this should be another strong outing from Archer, who struck out 11 batters his last time out. Tampa raced out to an early 7-3 lead early last night, but could not score over the final six innings (game went 12). In years past, we became accustomed to seeing that kind of dominance from the Royals' pen, but not this year as that group is just 3-8. The Rays, who have outscored their opponents this year, "should have" a better record but have blown 13 leads. The good news for tonight is that w/ the KC bullpen overworked last night, the pressure will be on starter Jason Hammel, who has a 5.53 ERA and 1.699 WHIP in six starts (1-5 TSR). He has not won on the road since last July. The Rays have lost three in a row, but are a perfect 2-0 this year when on that long of a skid. 6* Tampa Bay |
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05-09-17 | Twins v. White Sox +103 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): I think it's fair to say that both of these AL Central teams have been a bit surprising through the first 30 games. Minnesota lost 103 games in 2016 (only team in MLB w/ 100+ losses), but has started out this season by playing slightly better than .500 ball (15-14). The White Sox are .500 "on the nose," but that's only after being swept in Baltimore over the weekend. Run differential says the White Sox have been the better team thus far as they've outscored opponents (+9) while the Twins have not (-8). Thus I can't really understand while the road team would even be a slight favorite here as it's not as if they come into this three-game set playing well. At home, they were outscored 28-7 the previous two games by Boston. Admittedly, Chicago's starter in this game, Mike Pelfrey, isn't exactly awe-inspiring. This will be just his 4th start of 2017, but at least he's gotten progressively better over the course of the previous three. He went a season-best 5 1/3 innings his last time out and allowed just three runs. His strikeout numbers need to improve, which was always the problem when he pitched for Minnesota. Fortunately for him, the Twins have struck out 10 or more times in three of the past four ballgames. The White Sox should be highly motivated to be back at home tonight following a 10-game road trip. So far, they're outscoring visitors by 1.6 rpg here at Guaranteed Rate Field (not making that name up!). Ironically, the Twins will be starting a former member of the White Sox here. That would be Hector Santiago, who has actually pitched pretty well this year, but has little to show for it. Case in point, when he faced his former team last month, he tossed seven shutout innings of six-hit ball, yet Minnesota still lost the game, 3-1. Overall, these teams have split six head to head matchups this year, so again it's looking like a great value on the home side. Rarely do the Twins ever close as a road favorite. While they may get Brian Dozier back in the lineup tonight, he's only hitting .229 for the year. Dozier could not come close to replacing the potential lost production from Miguel Sano, who may get suspended for this game due to his role in a previous bench clearing brawl. The White Sox have gone 8-3 against lefties so far in 2017 and I like them to take tonight's series opener. 10* Chi White Sox |
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05-09-17 | Indians -164 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): These teams met LY in the ALCS, but it's become clear to me that only one has a chance of making it back there in 2017. Despite losing yday's series opener, that would be the team that won LY's ALCS, Cleveland. We may have to pay a premium here, but there's a clear pitching mismatch on Tuesday w/ Carlos Carrasco being opposed by Mike Bolsinger. Bolsinger is a spot starter, only being turned to because Aaron Sanchez is still dealing w/ a blister on his finger. Carrasco not only has a 2.18 ERA, but a superb 0.822 WHIP in his six starts so far. The Tribe will obviously need to start hitting, something they've not always done for Carrassco this year, but Bolsinger being on the hill should provide them that opportunity. Yesterday aside, it has not been a great start to the season for the Blue Jays. Due to several key free agent losses, they were expected to take a tumble down the standings in 2017, but that tumble has turned into a freefall as their record is just 12-20 through 32 games, which is second worst in the American League. Furthermore, they have a run differential of -21, which is tied for third worst in the American League. They've only gotten to play 13 home games so far and their five home victories are tied for the fewest in all of baseball. They're just 3-9 off a win. As a big league starter, Bolsinger is just 8-16 w/ a 4.61 ERA in 37 career appearances. I envision tonight being the spot where Cleveland's offense finally gets back on track. The Tribe shouldn't need a ton of offense w/ Carrasco on the bump. He has won all three of his road starts this season, posting a 1.83 ERA, the second lowest among all American League starters away from home. He has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all six starts and had he gotten one more out in the first start of the year, then he'd be 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts. What's perhaps most impressive w/ Carrasco is the fact he has allowed six hits or fewer in every start! He had control problems in one start (4.16 vs. Detroit), but other than that, his KW ratio is 34-3 (39-8 overall). 8* Cleveland |
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05-08-17 | Angels v. A's -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* Oakland (10:05 ET): I've readily admitted that the A's getting the "sharper dollars" for their weekend set w/ Detroit confounded me. It happened in all three games and they came away w/ two wins, both made possible by the typical meltdowns from the Tigers bullpen. However, here they'll get my endorsement due to falling into one of my favorite MLB handicapping situations, that being seeking revenge for a previous sweep. The Angels took all three games when these AL West rivals last met, which was at the end of April. However, two of the games were decided by one runs (identical 2-1 scores) and the truth of the matter is that the Halos haven't been that great since that series. They've lost four of five coming into tonight. One of the games in the previous series between these two featured a Ricky Nolasco-Kendall Graveman pitching duel. Those two starters square off again in Monday's opener. Nolasco allowed just one run and three hits in 5 2/3 IP vs. Oakland on 4.27, but last time out he gave up four runs and eight hits in just 4 1/3 as the Angels lost 8-7 to the Mariners. Nolasco, who battled cramping in the loss to Seattle, has been a lot worse on the road thus far, posting a 5.06 ERA and 1.687 WHIP. The Halos' offense has also suffered on the road, scoring only 3.2 runs per game while batting a collective .226. Not surprisingly then, the team's record is just 6-11 outside of Anaheim. While I've pointed to Oakland's poor run differential in the past, note that the Angels have been outscored by 20 runs themselves this seaosn. This is actually the third meeting of the year between Nolasco and Graveman. Graveman took the first, here in Oakland, part of a four-game series the teams ended up splitting. So, again, you can see how homefield advantage matters to the two starters. Despite the differing results, Graveman posted identical stat lines in the two starts against the Angels, allowing only 2 ER in 6 IP both times. He has a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Halos. Oakland's offense has also been a bit more prolific compared to LA's in recent days. I think a real key here is the fact Nolasco has allowed multi-HR's in four of his six starts so far. That's definitely not good. I'm not a buyer in the A's over the long-term, but I definitely like them in tonight's spot. 10* Oakland |
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05-06-17 | White Sox v. Orioles -210 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
6* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Typically, I don't play this large of a favorite, but I'll make an exception here as Saturday lines up to be an incredibly easy win for the Orioles. I don't know how he does it, but skipper Buck Showalter continues to defy the critics and the advanced stats, almost on a yearly basis. Right now, he's got the O's battling w/ the Yankees for the top spot in the American League East and he's done it despite missing LY's top starting pitcher, Chris Tillman. One of the big reasons for the team's success has been tonight's starter, Dylan Bundy, stepping up in a major way. Bundy is 4-1 so far (5-1 TSR) w/ a 1.82 ERA and 1.034 WHIP. Comparing him to White Sox starter Dylan Covey seems like a "no-contest." After taking yday's series opener 4-2, Baltimore should have no problem winning again tonight at Camden Yards. The White Sox being over .500 at this point is definitely a surprise. Dealing Chris Sale to Boston in the offseason signaled this was to be a rebuilding year and most projected them to finish last in the AL Central. However, thanks to some surprisingly good starting pitching (fewest # of runs allowed in the American League!), the team has stayed afloat over the season's first month. That said, Covey has had little to do w/ success on that side of the ledger. Through four starts, he has a 7.29 ERA and 1.762 WHIP. He's been hit hard in both road starts thus far, giving up a total of 14 runs in just 11 2/3 IP. He's allowed five home runs as well. Last time out, he gave up six runs to the worst offense in all of MLB (Kansas City), which is clearly not a good sign - at all. Meanwhile, Bundy is 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts and has allowed 2 ER or fewer five times. Aside from one start (on 4.26 vs. Tampa Bay), he hasn't allowed any home runs. Interestingly, this will be his 1st time facing a non-division opponent this year. But he's been even more lights out here in Camden w/ a 1.33 ERA and 0.836 WHIP and the team has won all three times he's started. Tonight is a very favorable matchup for him as the White Sox are among the lowest scoring teams in the American League and are also bottom five in baseball in both slugging and OBP. 6* Baltimore |
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05-06-17 | Cardinals v. Braves -109 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): #ImWithTeheran - The Braves were humiliated in their new ballpark last night, losing 10-0 to the Cardinals. But they have Julio Teheran on the bump tonight and this is a pitcher long overdue to start recording positive results. Last year, pitching on a 93-loss team, Teheran finished w/ a 10-20 team start record, but that was in no way indicative of his overall skill set as he posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. The numbers have dipped a bit this year and his TSR is just 2-4, but I still see better things on the horizon for him. It's telling that the Braves would be favored against the Cards, even if it's ever so slightly, for a second night in a row. Yesterday aside, St. Louis has been nothing but mediocre thus far and they are the worst fielding team in baseball. Right now, the Redbirds are down not one, but two starting outfielders. Stephen Piscotty is on the DL w/ a right hamstring strain. Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler remains day to day w/ a shoulder. Considering how poor the team has been in the field so far, being w/o regulars is pretty frightening. The absence of both from the lineup obviously makes Teheran's job that much easier as well. Teheran did start the season out strong, allowing just 2 ER in his first three starts (19 IP). But B2B starts here at SunTrust Park have been tough on him, especially the last one was as he was roughed up for six runs by the Mets. But that was a bad spot for him as he was starting opposite the same pitcher for a second straight outing and had won the first matchup. I anticipate him bouncing back here. Teheran has a 3.13 ERA in four career starts vs. St. Louis. The Braves won the only other time this season they were coming off a game where they'd allowed 10+ runs. St. Louis counters w/ Mike Leake, who admittedly had himself an excellent April. But I'm not counting on that lasting. This is a starter who was 9-12 w/ a 4.69 ERA last year. SunTrust Park has not been kind to pitchers so far in its young existence and this will obviously be Leake's first time working here. Even after winning by 10 runs yday, the Cards are still being outscored by a full run per game on the road this season. While Leake did outduel Max Scherzer earlier in the year, he's also been fortunate to face Cincinnati twice. I look for the Braves hitters to bounce back tonight as they are still averaging a healthy 7.1 rpg the L7 games despite being shutout Friday. 10* Atlanta |
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05-05-17 | Rangers -121 v. Mariners | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10* Texas (10:10 ET): This play certainly represents a "change of course" from recent days when I was BACKING the Mariners. Why the change? Well, the M's previous series (against the Angels) saw them SEEKING revenge for a prior three-game sweep. Now, the proverbial shoe is on the other foot. It was them that swept the Rangers back on 4.14-4.16 here at Safeco Field. As I made clear in my analysis for all picks on Seattle in the last series, this is one of my favorite spots to take a team, particularly in a division matchup. Over the long grind that is the MLB season, it's simply too difficult to beat the same opponent, day after day. With Yu Darvish on the bump, tonight will certainly be Texas' best shot at achieving a victory this weekend. Coming into 2017, the Rangers were earmarked for regression by a lot of people, myself included. Last year's 95-win team was extremely fortunate as they only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs over the course of the season, relying heavily on a 36-11 record in one-run games. That was the best such record in MLB HISTORY! This year has seen them start out a disappointing 12-17 and that's including the win yday afternoon in Houston. Sobering news was handed down this week in the form of a Cole Hamels' oblique injury that will keep him out of action for EIGHT weeks. But the team still has Darvish at the front end of the rotation and he's posted a 2.79 ERA and 1.061 WHIP through six starts so far. He did NOT face Seattle in the previous series. Last time out, he held the Angels to only two runs (one earned) and three hits over 6 IP. He also matched a season-high w/ 10 K's. It was the fourth time this year that Darvish has allowed two runs or less. Both of these teams scored double digit runs yesterday. I had the Mariners as they routed the Angels 11-3 to take that series. But having to counter Darvish w/ Yovani Gallardo here makes for a tough matchup. Gallardo has allowed 4 ER in three of his last four starts, never making it past the sixth inning. While he hasn't been too susceptible to the long ball thus far, it is worth noting that Texas has hit 12 HR's in its last five games. Seattle has lost four of Gallardo's five starts and that certainly has a lot to do w/ the pitcher himself as he's posted poor overall numbers (5.08 ERA, 1.553 WHIP). Look for the Rangers to come in and "steal one" tonight. 10* Texas |
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05-05-17 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Rockies | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:40 ET): There has been a pitching change here (for Colorado), but that has no bearing on the play. Truth be told, I was excited to go against Tyler Anderson in an "immediate revenge" spot for Zack Greinke. Those two squared off last week at Chase Field w/ Anderson and the Rockies coming out ahead 7-6, but only because the D'backs bullpen once again let Greinke and the team down. Note that over his last four starts, Greinke has now faced the same two opponents twice in a row. I took him in a similar spot on 4.24 against San Diego where he was seeking revenge against Jhoulys Chacin and sure enough he came through w/ a dominant effort. While the removal of Anderson as the starter for Colorado changes things up a bit here, truth is that German Marquez represents a clear downrgrade in the pitching department for the home team. I call Marquez a "clear downgrade" even though last week he tossed six shutout innings against these D'backs. But that performance was a "far cry" from his first start of 2017 (here at Coors Field) when he was hit hard for eight runs in just four innings of work. Interestingly enough, the Rockies actually still LOST the game Marquez started in Arizona, 2-0 in extra innings. Will they score here at home? Probably. But Greinke should mitigate how much and Marquez figures to be a whole lot worse tonight. Greinke has allowed 3 ER or less in four of five starts this year. Last week against the Rockies, he was victimized by the long ball (three solo HR's). That could be taken as a troubling sign going into the thin air of Coors Field, but he also has a 26-3 KW ratio his L3 starts, so I remain confident in his abilities. Colorado is very fortunate to be in first place of the NL West right now. While 18-11 overall, they are a perfect 9-0 in one-run games! They won another last night, 3-2, over lowly San Diego. Meanwhile, Arizona has a vastly superior run differential (+29) compared to the Rockies (-1). While the offense has yet to really produce on the road this year, the D'backs still rank 2nd in MLB in runs scored, so they are well-suited to take care of business here in Denver. Arizona is the better team here and has a clear starting pitching edge tonight, making them severely mispriced. 10* Arizona |
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05-04-17 | Angels v. Mariners -134 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): After cashing my 10* Game of the Week on them yday, I'll come right back w/ the Mariners again tonight. Really, one could make the case that the home team should be in a position to sweep their AL West rival here. The M's blew an early lead in the series opener and wound up losing in 11 innings. Last night was almost a bit of deja vu, but thankfully they were able to rally for an 8-7 victory. Some might call that "poetic justice" for an Angels team which leads all of MLB w/ 11 come from behind victories. It would have been 12 had Seattle not scored four times in the bottom of the eighth yday. Again, Seattle was able to take an early edge (4-0), but the Halos struck w/ a six-run sixth. Tonight, I'll call for them to lead from start to finish. Due to numerous injuries in their starting rotation, Los Angeles is forced to go w/ Alex Meyer again here. The spot starter failed to impress in his first outing, which came 4.21 at Toronto. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings and gave up a pair of runs while walking more batters (4) than he struck out (3). Targeting these spot starters is typically a good idea. Especially w/ Seattle now averaging a healthy 5.4 rpg at home. While they've struggled mightily on the road, the M's are 7-4 here at Safeco Field. The Angels are just 6-10 on the road and have been outscored overall this season (-10 run differential). It's not even like Meyer has been effective at a lower level. Through four starts at Triple A affiliate Salt Lake, his ERA is 6.16. Seattle will hope that their starter, Ariel Miranda, can turn in an outing reminiscent of his last one. Last Friday in Cleveland, he helped beat the Indians (was +175 on the money line!) by allowing only one run on two hits over 5 1/3 IP. He was even more effective in his previous home start where he tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball. Miranda has never lost to the Angels in three career tries and has a solid 3.71 ERA against them. With a 0.978 WHIP his L3 outings, he's clearly the better starting option here and thus I see the Mariners taking the series. 10* Seattle |
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05-04-17 | Pirates -115 v. Reds | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): The Pirates lost again to the Reds yday, 7-2. The loss drops them to 1-5 head to head w/ the Reds this season and a confounding 11-14 against them since the start of last season. They are now actually below Cincy in the NL Central standings. Given how the Reds have performed overall the L2 seasons, these results should leave the Bucs feeling quite embarrassed. But I was on Pittsburgh in that one win this year over the Reds (Tuesday) and I'll back them again this afternoon as they send Ivan Nova to the bump. Nova has a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through five starts, so he should be able to "put to bed" this embarrassing string of results against Cincinnati, a team that should not be dominating ANYONE quite frankly. Nova, somehow, only has a 3-2 TSR despite those impressive numbers listed above. One of the losses (of course!) was to the Reds, back on April 12th. That was his worst showing of the season as he allowed four runs (three earned) in six innings. But Nova left nothing to chance his last time out, tossing a CG shutout w/ no walks (only three hits) at Miami. Strikeout numbers are up for him (14 L2 starts) and his KW ratio for the year is now 22-1! He was actually named N.L. Pitcher of the Month for his efforts, which included another complete game at St. Louis. So given the last two times Nova has pitched away from home, he's gone the distance, I'm pretty confident he'll get the job done here. Meanwhile, my view of Reds' starter Tim Adelman is a lot less rosy. He was roughed up for six runs in his last start, which ended up being a 7-5 loss to the Cardinals. It was just his 2nd start of 2017 and neither time have the Reds one. Already, Adelman has allowed four home runs. The Pirates offense has shown an ability to put runs on the board, twice scoring 12 in the L6 games. One of those was of course Tuesday here in Cincy. I've got to go back to the Reds' awful outlook at the start of the season here and I just can't see them beating the Pirates again, not w/ Nova on the hill. 8* Pittsburgh |
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05-03-17 | Angels v. Mariners -123 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): With an early 2-0 lead and James Paxton on the bump, one would have though the Mariners would be a "shoo-in" last night. I certainly did. But it was not to be as the team wound up dropping its third straight, this one in extra innings, 6-4 to the Angels. Though he walked five batters, Paxton allowed only two runs over his 5 1/3 IP, just one of them earned. But the M's actually needed to score in the home half of the ninth just to force extra innings. They lost when Mike Trout was able to score from first base on a double from Albert Pujols in the top of the 11th. The loss dropped them to 0-4 head to head vs. the Angels this season. Can't see that continuing, not w/ the fact that the Halos (despite a winning record) have actually been outscored this season. Ricky Nolasco will pitch this evening for Los Angeles and he'll be leaned on heavily. That's because a total of six relievers were used yday due to Matt Shoemaker being ineffective. In addition to not being able to rely much on the bullpen, Nolasco should also be concerned w/ an offense which averages only 3.0 rpg away from home while batting a collective .219. Considering Nolasco has yet to last longer than six innings in any of his five starts this season, I see a problem for the Angels. In six career starts vs. Seattle, Nolasco has just one win and a 4.33 ERA. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz have combined to homer five times off him in just 33 total AB's. I'd also like to point out that the Angels are very fortunate to already have 11 come from behind wins this season, last night included. The Mariners will counter w/ Hisashi Iwakuma. In the past, Iwakuma had been a reliable #2 man in the rotation, behind Felix Hernandez. But King Felix is on the DL and Iwakuma hasn't been as effective as he once was. Still, facing an Angels lineup that often struggles to score on the road shouldn't be too tall of a task. In 20 career starts vs. LA, he's posted a 2.76 ERA and he's 6-2 against them here at Safeco Field. Also, Iwakuma is off his best start of the year, having allowed just one unearned run across 5 2/3 IP last week in Detroit. Aside from one bad showing vs. Texas, he's allowed 3 ER or less every other time out. While this may be Seattle's third three-game losing streak of 2017 already, they've yet to lose four in a row and I'll call for them to keep that streak alive tonight. 10* Seattle |
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05-02-17 | Rockies v. Padres -108 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:10 ET): I am by no means ready to buy into Colorado, despite a 16-10 start which has them currently atop the National League West. That overall record is a byproduct of a being a very fortunate 8-0 in one run games so far. In all other contests, they've been outscored by 14 runs. Their last game, a 2-0 loss at Arizona Sunday, brings back a familiar criticism of this team and that's they rarely produce offensively on the road. The bottom line is the so-called "Coors Field effect" has long skewed perception of this franchise's offensive capabilities. For the record, the club is 5-9 the L3 seasons after suffering a shutout loss. San Diego won't get my endorsement too many times this season, but here's an instance where they do. Petco Park is infamously at the opposite end of the spectrum from Coors Field in terms of its friendliness towards hitters. Tonight's starter for the home team took full advantage of that in his first start of the year here. Back on April 21st, Trevor Cahill threw seven solid innings for the Padres, allowing just one run on three hits in a 5-3 win over Miami. He wasn't nearly as effective his last time out, but that was in Arizona, a park similar to Coors in its penchant for producing high-scoring games. While Cahill's career marks against Colorado aren't exactly awe-inspiring, getting to face them here at home is a bonus. The Rockies, who are hitting just .224 on the road w/ 3.5 rpg scored, managed only 11 runs total (four game series) in their last visit to San Diego. Remember, earlier this year, the Padres did take two of three from the first place Rockies and that was in Denver! Tyler Chatwood gave up four runs in one of those losses to San Diego and he'll be the starter again tonight for Colorado. He'd also previously allowed seven runs to the usually weak-hitting Padres in his final start against them of 2016. Now both of those came at Coors where Chatwood has had to pitch his L2 starts (allowed total of nine runs). But even w/ him owning a CG shutout (of the Giants) on the road this season, I don't have the righty faring all that well tonight. Something else to consider is that this is the Padres' first home game following a seven-game trip. Only the Braves (8) have gotten to play fewer home games than the Padres' nine and they have a winning record (5-4) so far here at Petco Park. 8* San Diego |
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05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners -142 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners have largely been a disappointment this year as they're only 11-15 and were just handed "their lunch" by Cleveland Sunday in 12-4 loss. But, back at home w/ James Paxton on the bump, I like 'em. Seattle has been a much better team this year within the confines of Safeco Field, going 6-3 including a perfect 5-0 when in the -125 to -175 price range. Paxton is responsible for two of those wins as he has yet to allow a single run here in 15 IP. In fact, he's allowed just six hits. Last time out marked the fourth time in five starts that Paxton didn't allow a single run as he blanked the Tigers for seven innings, giving up just four hits. With a 39-6 KW ratio this year, he looks like the real deal and I look for him to dominate the Angels Tuesday. The Angels have won six of seven overall. They just took two of three over the weekend in Texas and what's most impressive about the current win streak is that it's come in spite of the offense not scoring many runs. Three of the wins came by identical 2-1 scores and overall the team has been held to three runs or fewer in five of its past eight contests. So that doesn't bode well for facing Paxton. Nor does Michael Shoemaker's last start against the Mariners. In an earlier series played between these teams this year, Shoemaker surrendered seven runs in just 4 2/3 innings of work. Now the Angels still won, 10-9, but that was due to a stunning seven-run rally in the home half of the ninth. It's a result I'm sure the Mariners remember coming into this three-game set. Despite being a game over .500, the Halos have actually been outscored by 11 runs this year. They did sweep the Mariners in Anaheim last month, but two of the wins were by one run. As I often say, it is difficult to continue beating the same opponent, particularly if it's a division rival. Led by Paxton, who the Angels did not face in the previous series, the Mariners have the edge tonight. Opponents are hitting just .179 against Paxton so far this season and the Angels best player (Mike Trout) is just 2 for 20 lifetime against him w/ 10 K's. Shoemaker was lucky to avoid the loss his last time facing the M's and I have to wonder about his psyche here, pitching in the place where he suffered a skull fracture last September. Seattle is a perfect 3-0 this season after allowing 10+ runs in the previous game. 10* Seattle |
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05-02-17 | Pirates +114 v. Reds | Top | 12-3 | Win | 114 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): I just can't believe the trouble the Bucs are having w/ the Reds, not only this season, but dating back to 2016 as well. Last night's 4-3 loss (in extra innings) drops them to 0-4 head to head against their division rivals so far this year and 10-13 (-8.7 units) since the start of last year. Given the Reds' overall level of ineptitude during this time, this is pretty shocking. As is the Pirates ace Gerrit Cole still being winless all-time (nine starts) against Cincy after last night. Tonight, they turn to Tyler Glasnow, who likewise has not fared well in this NL Central rivalry. But I'll continue to look to "buck the trend" here as Pittsburgh is certainly "due" to beat what is still a "lesser opponent." That lesser opponent had not won B2B games in three weeks prior to last night. In the last series between these teams, Glasnow did not fare well as he allowed five runs in just 1 2/3 innings. But he hasn't lost since as the team is 3-0 his L3 starts. Admittedly, that record is in spite of some shoddy numbers from Glasnow himself, but he and the team will gladly take the results, especially considering that two of the outings came against the Cubs! The other was against the Yankees, so that's +4.6 units if you happened to bet Glasnow all three times. Apparently, oddsmakers have not learned their lesson here, installing Glasnow as a slight dog on the ML. Despite the way this rivalry has leaned the L2 seasons, if Glasnow can come out ahead of the likes of the Cubs & Yankees, he should be able to beat the lowly Reds as well. Again, I point to the preseason projections which had Cincy as the second worst team in all of baseball, ahead of only San Diego. Just 58-85 off a win since the start of last season, the Reds hand the baseball to veteran Scott Feldman tonight. It's been a surprisingly decent start to the year for Feldman, who was the club's Opening Day starter mind you (yikes!), but I'm certainly not confident that will last. Nor would I be too confident with this Reds offense. Prior to the GW hit, all their production last night came on one swing of the bat, a 3-run HR by Adam Duval. They also benefited mightily from two Pirates errors, one of them leading to the GW run being scored in the 10th. Cincy is only batting a collective .228 at Great American Ballpark so far. I like the Pirates at this price. 10* Pittsburgh |
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05-01-17 | White Sox v. Royals -166 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (8:15 ET): I'm gonna try w/ the Royals again even though they've now lost nine in a row and are 0-12 their last 12 games vs. the AL Central going back to last season. It's certainly looking like a rapid "fall from grace" for a club that's still only two years removed from winning the World Series. Their 7-16 record is baseball's worst as is their -37 run differential. They just failed to avenge another prior sweep here at home over the weekend, losing two to the Twins (rainout Saturday). Here, they welcome in a White Sox team that is surprisingly above .500 (cleaned house in offseason and were thought to be undertaking a massive rebuild). That's thanks to taking all three games from KC last week at U.S. Cellular Field. I anticipate a far different result here. It's not like the Royals were dominated by the Twins over the weekend. They, in fact, jumped out to leads in both games. The bullpen is clearly not what it once was, but maybe that's not a factor tonight w/ Jason Vargas getting the baseball. Vargas has been the Royals' one savior so far this season w/ a 3-1 team start record (they are 4-15 in all other games!). That one loss did come to Chicago last week as he gave up four runs in five innings of what ended up being an ugly 12-1 loss. But prior to that poor effort, Vargas had started the season w/ three consecutive quality efforts and had allowed just one run in 20 2/3 IP overall! He has a 28-2 KW ratio so far and the home run he allowed to the White Sox Matt Davidson was the first he'd given up all year. White Sox hitters have not hit lefties well this season, turning in a .197 batting average while scoring only 2.9 runs per game. Now offense has certainly been an issue for KC so far. They are dead last (by a lot) in terms of runs scored in all of MLB and with the White Sox having allowed the fewest # of runs in baseball, this might seem like a bad matchup. But that's where Chicago starter Dylan Covey comes in. Through three starts, Covey has a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. Yet somehow, the team has still managed to win twice! One of those was his last time out, against these Royals, where he lasted only four innings after giving up a pair of runs. So far, Covey has more walks than strikeouts (terrible sign!) and he allowed three home runs in a prior start against the Yankees. While the Royals have been terrible on the road thus far, they're at least 5-5 at Kauffman Stadium. They're due to start turning things around, at least a little bit. 8* Kansas City |
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05-01-17 | Pirates -114 v. Reds | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:10 ET): The Pirates had a three-game win streak snapped yday (lost 10-3 at Miami) and now turn to a division rival that they've had some trouble with going back to 2016. That includes suffering a three-game sweep (at home!) earlier this year. While that scenario may not sound too promising on the surface, the opponent here is Cincinnati and I refuse to believe that the Bucs can't take care of business against a club that is projected to be among the very worst in MLB this season. Especially w/ ace Gerrit Cole on the bump for Monday's series opener. As I've often said, the revenge angle (for a prior series sweep) can be a strong angle in MLB betting, particularly when you're talking about division opponents. Great price on the road team tonight. In addition to the revenge angle, Cole is a big reason I'm making this play. He's coming off four straight quality starts, but unfortunately has been a hard luck loser each of his L2 times out. Last Tuesday vs. Chicago, he allowed only an unearned run over 7 IP (just two hits!), but sadly, that was the difference in the game as the Pirates "forgot to score" themselves (lost 1-0). In his start prior to that one, Cole allowed only two runs, but lost 2-1 to St. Louis. Overall, he now sports a 1.89 ERA and 0.895 WHIP his L3 outings. Now the big worry here is that Cole is 0-6 in eight all-time starts vs. Cincinnati. To me, that makes little sense. Cole is a great pitcher and the Reds are a bad team. This confounding record is due to reverse itself, in my opinion. The lack of offense Cole has received recently should be rectified here thanks to a woeful Reds pitching staff. Up first is Amir Garrett, who was absolutely rocked his last time out as he gave up 10 runs in just 3 1/3 innings. He struck out only one batter and allowed three home runs. He had been much sharper in his first three outings, one of them against these Pirates, but I'm not buying a repeat of April 12th at PNC Park where he allowed only two runs and five hits across 6 2/3 IP. Cincy did win Sunday, 5-4 over St. Louis, but all that did was snap a four-game losing skid. Overall, the club has dropped 8 of its last 10. As I said earlier, outside of San Diego, this was projected to be the worst team in MLB this season. The Pirates finally get that elusive win over the Reds here and probably go on to dominate this series. 10* Pittsburgh |
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04-30-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox -111 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): This possible World Series preview has seen a split after two games w/ the Cubs winning 7-4 yesterday. For tonight's rubber match, it's a battle of southpaws w/ Kyle Hendricks taking on Eduardo Rodriguez. While the Cubs won yday and are 5-1 vs. LH starters this year, I favor the Red Sox here even w/ their scuffling offense. Interleague Play has typically gone the way of the Junior Circuit and in this case, Boston is a lofty 31-14 vs. the NL the L3 seasons. This looks like a GREAT value on them at Fenway as they are also 7-3 off a loss so far. Cubs starter Hendricks is off a gem as he tossed six scoreless innings in Pittsburgh last week. The team needed every bit of that as they only wound up prevailing 1-0. Hendricks hasn't proven to be that durable yet, however, never going longer than six full innings. He's only working on four days' rest here. Pittsburgh was his first quality start of the season. He's not fared too well in the past in IL play, posting a 3.94 ERA in nine tries. Also, the Cubs' bullpen has been used a lot in this series Jake Arrieta was ineffective Friday and John Lackey gave up four more runs Saturday. Facing a 4-3 deficit going into the seventh yday, the Cubs were able to rally thanks in part to the long ball, but I'm not sure they will be able to count on such good fortune again tonight (Red Sox also made four errors in yday's game!) Rodriguez is also coming off a strong start, one where he allowed only one hit over six scoreless innings! That was at Baltimore and likewise was his 1st quality outing of 2017. There were five walks and while control is a concern w/ him, the Cubs haven't exactly been drawing a ton of walks in this series. A big storyline in Beantown right now is that the Red Sox are 27th in MLB in runs scored after ranking 1st by a wide margin in 2016. Stop with this Big Papi nonsense. It's only a matter of time before the runs start coming as they actually rank second in team batting average (.273) and fifth in OBP (.334) despite missing several key contributors at the start of the season. I like the home team to take this series. 10* Boston |
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04-30-17 | Twins v. Royals -121 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (2:10 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I was set to play this matchup last night, but it got rained out. Therefore, the analysis will remain largely the same. Maybe a day off is what the Royals needed to put this long losing streak of theirs (now at EIGHT games) to bed? Friday night, they appeared to be well on their way w/ a 3-0 lead after three innings and 4-2 entering the eighth. But that is when things went awry as B2B two-run doubles by the Twins' Miguel Sano and Joe Mauer spoiled the Royals' return home after a dreadful road trip. What's really frustrating about that final result (6-4 Twins) is that KC got a strong starting pitching performance from Ian Kennedy, who retired the first 10 batters. In fact, Minnesota had managed only two hits through the first seven innings. Sunday, the Royals hand the baseball to Jason Hammel, who was scheduled for Saturday. Now Hammel is hardly off to a great start to 2017. In fact, his team start record is 0-4 w/ a 5.30 ERA and 1.768 WHIP. Last time out, he lasted just three innings and gave up three runs at Texas. But in his previous home start, he went six innings and allowed just one run against San Francisco. So that's definitely encouraging. Hammel also hasn't exactly gotten a ton of run support thus far (three runs or less in every game), so he could certainly use some help from the offense. The good news is that the four runs scored Friday showed signs of breaking out of a slump which has seen the KC lineup score two runs or fewer 9 of the past 10 games. Hammel is typically a strong pitcher at the start of the year as his 19 career wins in April are the most for any month. Twins starter Phil Hughes has certainly not had a good time in the past pitching here at Kauffman Stadium. In seven career tries, his ERA is 5.49. While Hughes pitched well his last time out (in Texas), he certainly did not in his two starts prior to that one as he gave up a total of 10 runs in just nine total innings of work. He's yet another Twins starter w/ a low strikeout rate. The Twins finished w/ fewer hits than KC Friday night and I have to go back to the revenge angle here as the Royals were swept up in Minnesota earlier this month. It's just too hard to continue beating the same team on a daily basis, particularly if it's a division rival. 10* Kansas City |
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04-30-17 | Mariners v. Indians -154 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): After losing as big ML favorites in Friday night's series opener, the Tribe battled back to defeat the Mariners yday, 4-3. The game was interesting for a variety of reasons. First off, all seven runs were scored in the first inning. Cleveland held Seattle w/o a hit over the final eight frames, thanks to a masterful effort from Danny Salazar and the team's two ace relievers (Andrew Miller, Cody Allen). For the M's, they had a player (Boog Powell) make his MLB debut, though he didn't actually get up to bat. Of course, neither did the majority of Seattle's lineup. Another big league debut is Con tap for the road team today, this time a starting pitcher, Chase De Jong. I don't like the situation nor his chances against an Indians team that has won 8 of its last 11. Coming off a World Series appearance, it has not been the dominant start to the season that Cleveland had hoped for. But, as I just alluded to, they've started to get things going. So too has today's starter, Josh Tomlin. Tomlin was a disaster in his first two starts, but has since bounced back w/ a pair of quality outings. Last time out, he stood toe to toe w/ Houston's former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, giving up just 3 ER in 6 IP. He struck out six and walked none. In six career appearances vs. Seattle, he's gone 4-1 w/ a 3.32 ERA. His KW ratio is 37-5. Control has never been a concern with Tomlin has he's gone 35 consecutive starts w/o walking more than two batters. Last year saw him lead the American League in fewest walks per nine innings. Tomlin shouldn't be too concerned w/ a Mariners lineup which is batting a collective .225 in road games. Obviously, they did little yday outside the first inning. On the flip side, I expect Cleveland's hitters to have their way w/ De Jong. Technically, this is not De Jong's big league debut as he's worked out of the bullpen twice. But it's his first start, a spot necessitated by Felix Hernandez going to the D.L. If this one comes down the bullpens, it's a no contest as Cleveland has one of the best in baseball thanks to Miller and Allen. Seattle relievers have been shaky all season, a big reason why the team is only 5-11 away from Safeco Field. 8* Cleveland |
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04-29-17 | Orioles v. Yankees -166 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yanks dealt the O's a major blow Friday in turning a 9-1 deficit into a 14-11 win. You have to feel that it's going to be tough for Baltimore to "get back up off the mat" after that result. What happened was a bevy of home runs from the team wearing pinstripes, five to be exact, the final one being a walkoff from Matt Holliday in the bottom half of the 10th. That results leaves the teams tied a top the American League East at 14-7 overall. But run differential doesn't lie and the fact that the Yanks are now a MLB-best +38 in that department (Baltimore only +6) certainly "means something." That something is that I'm backing the home team Saturday afternoon as they look to make it four in a row overall and run their record in the Bronx to 10-1! NY skipper Joe Girardi, like counterpart Buck Showalter, has been defying the advanced stats for years now. They've not had a single losing season during his tenure (2008-), but what's most impressive about that is that three of the past four seasons have seen the club be outscored by its opponents. But, as referenced earlier, this year has been a different story. No team has a better run differential in the sport. The offense is top five in all key categories, but clearly the bigger reason for success has been a pitching staff which ranks 2nd in ERA, 1st in WHIP and 2nd in opponents' batting average. So allowing 11 runs yday was clearly an abberration. Among American League teams, only the White Sox (!) have allowed fewer runs this season. Saturday's starter Michael Pineda has certainly done his part w/ a 2.75 ERA and 0.813 WHIP his L3 starts, all of which have resulted in Yankee victories. Behind him is one of the top bullpens in the sport, one that shut the door late last night by allowing zero runs in the final three innings. Starting opposite Pineda will be Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a very misleading 4-0 TSR. Though the Orioles have won all four of his starts, rarely has it been because of Jimenez himself. He has an ERA of 5.95 and a WHIP of 1.628 and has failed to make it out of the fifth inning three times. Last time out was his shortest stint to date as he gave up three runs in just 3 1/3 IP against Tampa Bay. Not only has Jimenez allowed 4 HR's already this season, but he has the same number of walks (12) as he does K's. For the sake of comparison, Pineda has a 29-3 KW rate this year. Baltimore's bullpen is still w/o Zach Britton and has poor marks on the road, certainly not helped by last night. The Yankees are simply the better team here and have been dominant at home, outscoring foes by nearly two full runs per game. 8* NY Yankees |
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04-28-17 | Twins v. Royals -126 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): The Royals return home to Kauffman Stadium looking for answers. They're in last place in the American League Central after taking seven consecutive losses, all on the road. Offense has been virtually non-existent for a club only two years removed from winning the World Series. In fact, they've now been held to two runs or fewer in 9 of their last 10 games. After just getting swept by the Rangers and White Sox, they'll be looking to avenge another sweep this weekend, that being one that took place earlier in the year at Minnesota. Clearly, as you can tell from all these sweeps, the Royals haven't played well on the road this season (2-11!), but they are a respectable 5-3 at home and I see them getting back on track tonight. Neither starting pitcher for Friday's series opener has a win to his name thus far in 2017. But there is no denying that KC's Ian Kennedy has pitched much better than has Minnesota's Kyle Gibson. Kennedy has a 2.08 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four starts while Gibson has a 9.00 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in his four. Last time out, Gibson made it only 2 2/3 innings and gave up seven runs. His strikeout numbers, a perennial "bugaboo" for the entire Twins' staff, have also been poor. In 17 innings of work, he has just 12 K's against seven walks. He's also allowed a home run in every start (five total). As for Kennedy, he's made three consecutive quality starts and allowed only 3 ER in the process. His last home start was the "best of the bunch" considering he went eight full innings w/o giving up a single run (only two hits!) and he struck out 10. Fortunately, his offense managed to score once (in the ninth!), so while it was a no-decision for him, it was still a win for the Royals. The shame of Kansas City's hitters not producing is that the pitching staff has been pretty good. The team has somehow lost four times this year in games where it allowed two runs or fewer. Two of those have come w/ Kennedy on the bump. Last time out, he surrendered only a run and four hits in 7 IP at Texas, but the team still lost 2-1. This lack of luck has to change sooner rather than later and it should be pointed out that Minnesota has given up double digit runs in three of its last eight games. This could be the spot where the Royals' offense finally breaks out. Remember, they were 15-4 vs. the Twins last year, including 9-1 here at home. 10* Kansas City |
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04-27-17 | Astros v. Indians -168 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians squared away this potential ALCS preview at one game apiece by holding on for a 7-6 win yday. Having earned a split against the Astros' two frontline starters (Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers) should be considered a "moral victory" of sorts for the Tribe, who can now send out their own ace Thursday, that being Corey Kluber, who just tossed a CG shutout in his last start. Last night saw Cleveland jump all over McCullers and take an early 3-0 lead. Things got dicey late (Astros scored twice in top of the eighth) before Cody Allen came in for the four-out save. I can see them pouncing on tonight's Houston starter as well, Michael Fiers, and with Kluber pitching, the runs allowed side of the ledger should be just fine. Fiers may have a 2-1 team start record, but he's yet to record a winning decision for himself, nor has he deserved one. Well, maybe his first outing of the year against Kansas City. There he gave up only two runs (one earned) in six innings. But he did walk three. The long ball has been a real problem thus far as the number of HR's allowed by Fiers has incremently risen w/ each passing start. He gave up two in his second start (at Seattle) and then three his last time out, which was at Tampa Bay. Those L2 starts lasted only a total of nine innings and like this one, both were on the road. The fact that the Astros won both of Fiers' road starts seems highly fortunate. The offense did score 16 runs, but that kind of help isn't to be expected here tonight against Kluber. As mentioned earlier, Kluber went the distance his last time out and didn't give up a single run. He held the White Sox to only three hits and no runner ever even reached second base! Kluber also has 17 K's over his last two starts. The Cleveland lineup has been strengthened by the return of Michael Brantley this year. Limited to only 11 games in 2016, Brantley had 15 RBI's in his last 17 games and comes into today riding a 10-game hitting streak (.381). Three of those RBI's came yesterday. Meanwhile, Houston's lineup is not at full strength. They are expected to be w/o Jose Altuve, George Springer and Jake Marisnick again Thursday. Those are all key losses and a major reason reason to fade when facing Kluber. 8* Cleveland |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers -147 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): I won w/ the Under in the series opener between these two on Monday (which was a 3-2 win by the Twins). Then the Rangers got humiliated last night, losing again to the Twins, this time by a score of 8-1. That makes it B2B losses at home for LY's AL West Champs after sweeping Kansas City here over the weekend. Coming into the year, Texas was a team likely to regress anyway given that LY's 95-win campaign was built on the backbone of an extraordinarily fortunate 36-11 record in one-run games, the best such mark in MLB HISTORY (run differential was only +8!). But I have the home team bouncing back this evening as they send Cole Hamels to the bump to face a team that has struggled to hit left-handed pitching so far this season. Texas hasn't done much hitting in its own right lately. Over its L8 games, they've been held to two runs or fewer six times. Fortunately for them, they were bailed out in the Royals series by some extraordinary pitching performances. One came from Hamels, who despite only 3 K's, allowed only one run and three hits in eight impressive innings of work. That was actually the 1st time this season the Rangers won w/ their ace on the mound and the 1st time he didn't allow a home run. But, as teased before, the Twins are batting a collective .219 against left-handed starters so far and thus I anticipate Hamels will pitch well again tonight. In his two starts in Arlington thus far, Hamels has produced a WHIP of 0.786. So, despite the 1-3 TSR, it's not as if he's pitched poorly. Minnesota will counter w/ Hector Santiago, himself off to a strong start to 2017. Santiago is also probably deserving of a better team start record given that he's allowed only six runs all year in 24 2/3 innings of work. But I'm going to go ahead and call for the Texas lineup to break out of its slump tonight. Santiago has not pitched well in his career against the Rangers, posting a 4.04 ERA in 20 appearances. Last year alone, his ERA was 6.63 in three matchups when he was w/ the Angels. So the Rangers' hitters know him well. Something to keep in mind is that Minnesota has just one win streak of more than two games this season. It came when they started the season 4-0. Since then, they're just 6-10 overall and I just can't see them sweeping this series on the road. 10* Texas |
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04-25-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -145 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:40 ET): Things got a bit dicey at the end, but the D'backs were able to hold on for a 7-6 victory in last night's series opener vs. the Padres. It was a game they led 7-1 going into the seventh thanks to another outstanding effort from Zack Greinke, who struck out 11. But once manager Andy Green lifted Greinke, things got interesting. Thankfully, San Diego's rally fell one run short. As was the case w/ yday's matchup, we have a starting pitching rematch from a game played last week. After Greinke was able to gain revenge against Jhuoulys Chacin last night, I see Patrick Corbin doing the same here against Clayton Richard. I see no reason why not to again back Arizona at home where they're now 9-2 and averaging an impressive 7.4 runs per game. As discussed in yday's analysis, these teams met last week in San Diego. The Padres took two of three, one of them a 1-0 win in the Chacin-Greinke matchup. Chacin was shockingly able to outduel Greinke there and the same was the case the following day with Richard and Corbin both on the hill. Richard allowed only one run in 6 2/3 innings while striking out eight. But perhaps he "should have" allowed more considering he also gave up nine hits. Corbin, meanwhile, allowed only five hits in six innings, but three runs (despite an identical 8-0 KW ratio). I'm handicapping this one the same as yday as I don't see the same pitcher coming out ahead twice in row. Richard had allowed a total of nine runs his previous two starts, so similar to Chacin, I see him regressing the second go around vs. an Arizona lineup that has hit the cover off the baseball here in Chase Field. In addition to scoring 7.4 rpg here, the D'backs are batting a collective .314. On the other hand, the Padres are one of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball (.216 team BA), so things should go easier this time around for Corbin, who tossed six shutout innings (against Cleveland) the last time he pitched at home. I also - again - have to go back to the fact that San Diego was projected to be the worst team in all of baseball this year. Thus, even an 8-13 record has to be considered a mild surprise, even though they're finally starting to slip as they've lost three straight and 8 of their last 11. 10* Arizona |
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04-24-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -172 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): For the second time in six days, Arizona's Zack Greinke and San Diego's Jhoulys Chacin will square off. Last Wednesday, it was Chacin coming away the surprise winner, though only by a 1-0 margin in a game where both starters pitched tremendously. Greinke was his usual self, allowing just one run on five hits over eight innings. But, shockingly, Chacin outdueled him by delivering eight innings of shutout, three-hit ball. One of those pitchers should stick to form tonight and it won't be Chacin. What made his last outing so shocking is that he'd been rocked in two of his first three. Both the "bad ones" came on the road. Moving from Petco Park to Chase Field (where the D'backs are 8-2 and averaging 7.4 rpg) will make all the difference in the world. Chacin has been a complete disaster in the two road starts w/ a 14.05 ERA and 2.641 WHIP. He allowed 13 runs in just 8 1/3 innings. Hitter friendly Chase Field is certainly not an ideal environment for him to reverse the trend. Like I already said; the D'backs are hitting the cover off the ball here, averaging 7.4 runs per game while batting a collective .316. In the series at San Diego, they scored 11 times in the opener, but then were held to just a single run in B2B losses. They then returned home to assault Dodgers pitching w/ 24 runs on Friday/Saturday, before being held to only two yesterday, which was just their second loss here all season. Let's also remember San Diego's preseason projection. This is widely expected to be the worst team in baseball this year, so even an 8-12 record should be taken w/ a grain of salt. Regression has already begun to set in w/ the Padres losing 7 of 10. They're just 3-8 on the road. Greinke has owned San Diego in his career, posting a 1.96 ERA in 17 starts against them. He made just one mistake last time, that was allowing a solo home run to Erick Aybar in the eighth inning. Still, in three of four starts this season, Greinke has allowed 2 ER or less. The Padres are always one of the lightest hitting teams and this year, despite limited success, has been no different. They come into tonight averaging just 3.1 rpg while batting a collective .213. Those numbers simply won't get it done at Chase Field. Look for Greinke to dominate them again while Chacin struggles this time. 8* Arizona |
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04-24-17 | Cubs -114 v. Pirates | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): After taking the first two games, the defending World Series Champs failed to sweep in Cincinnati over the weekend. They lost 7-5 Sunday, but still are atop the NL Central. That being said, they've been nowhere near as dominant as they were as the start of 2016 when they outscored the opposition by 60+ runs over the first 16 games. Pittsburgh avoided a sweep Sunday w/ a 2-1 win over the Yankees, but has still lost four of six and been outscored by a division worst 16 runs over the course of the season. So, despite what happened yday, there shouldn't be any denying who the better team is here and I think the "price is right" to strike! Now, the "better team" certainly failed to assert itself in the first series of 2017 between these two. The Pirates shockingly swept a three-game set at Wrigley Field, which was some payback for going only 4-14 vs. the Cubs last year. The Bucs were significant underdogs on the money line in every game, so if you bet them, you came out well. Pittsburgh averaged 6.0 rpg against Cubs' pitching and that's something you should NOT expect to see again. With the Starling Mare suspension still fresh, the lineup has been held to two runs or less in four of the last six games. At the same time, it's been the Cubs' bats that have woken up lately. They averaged 6.1 rpg over the past week. On the mound, the Cubs will turn to a lefty Monday, that being Brett Anderson. I anticipate he'll pitch well seeing as the Pirates have a losing record vs. southpaws thus far. Anderson did get rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs in an abbreviated effort in Milwaukee. But before that, he'd allowed just one run in 10 2/3 IP. Many will want to actually give the starting pitching edge here to Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl, but he's struggled against lefties and that doesn't bode well facing a lineup that includes the names Schwarber, Rizzo, Zobrist and Heyward. Also, Kris Bryant has typically saved some of his best work for Pirates' pitching as 1.087 OPS is his highest vs. any NL opponent. Save for the three-game sweep of the Cubs, the Bucs are 0-6 in division games this year. 10* Chi Cubs |
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04-23-17 | Nationals v. Mets +144 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
9* NY Mets (8:05 ET): The Mets seemingly come into Sunday nights' finale w/ the Nationals at a severe disadvantage. They've dropped the first two games of this three game set, at home, and have now dropped three in a row overall. Meanwhile, the Nats have won six in a row and now send Max Scherzer to the hill. But let's not forget that that the Mets were actually favored on the money line in the first two games of this series. Losing twice changes that, but I suspect the change from the oddsmakers has more to do w/ Scherzer's presence than anything else. I feel that's being overvalued. Look for the Mets to avoid the sweep tonight as they salvage a game. Scherzer absolutely should command respect. After all, he has a 1.37 ERA and 0.864 WHIP through his first three starts. He's been one of the top pitchers in the game for the past several seasons. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball in Atlanta. But the Braves, Cardinals and Phillies (Scherzer's first three opponents) are hardly a "murderer's row." Now his career ERA vs. the Mets (1.38) is his lowest vs. any opponent that he's faced at least ten times. And the Mets have scored only 23 runs in their last eight games. But I'm going to still keep the faith. After all, the Nats have not swept a series here in Queens since 2014. The Mets will send Zack Wheeler to the bump. He could use some offensive help, but then again he too is off a strong outing, holding the Phillies to one run and four hits in five innings of work. It's not as if the Nats have been hitting the cover off the ball in this series either. They've scored just three and four runs in the two wins, respectively, and have collected only 13 hits. Nats' hitters have actually drawn as many walks as they have hits in the series, which has been crucial. Wheeler has exhibited pretty good control thus far w/ only four walks in three starts. That's fewer than Scherzer, albeit in fewer innings. Still, it's also a good sign that Washington struck out 15 times yday and Wheeler posted 7 K's in that last start. The Mets are 20-14 the L3 seasons when coming off three straight losses. 9* NY Mets |
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Bryan Power MLB Top Money Lines Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-17-17 | Royals v. Angels -133 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
06-17-17 | Cardinals v. Orioles +100 | Top | 7-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
06-16-17 | Royals v. Angels -113 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
06-16-17 | Giants +100 v. Rockies | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
06-15-17 | Royals v. Angels -127 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -127 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
06-15-17 | Rays v. Tigers -127 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
06-14-17 | Dodgers v. Indians -139 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
06-13-17 | Mariners +105 v. Twins | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
06-13-17 | Rockies v. Pirates -115 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
06-12-17 | Rangers +109 v. Astros | Top | 6-1 | Win | 109 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
06-12-17 | Orioles v. White Sox +105 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
06-12-17 | Mariners v. Twins -118 | Top | 14-3 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
06-11-17 | White Sox v. Indians -192 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
06-11-17 | A's v. Rays -179 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
06-10-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
06-10-17 | Twins v. Giants -147 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
06-09-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners +109 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 109 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
06-09-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals -167 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
06-09-17 | Marlins v. Pirates -127 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
06-08-17 | Astros -192 v. Royals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
06-08-17 | White Sox v. Rays -167 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
06-07-17 | Phillies v. Braves -130 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
06-07-17 | Cardinals -138 v. Reds | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
06-06-17 | Blue Jays -139 v. A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
06-06-17 | Phillies v. Braves -108 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
06-05-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers -123 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
06-05-17 | Phillies v. Braves -115 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
06-04-17 | Astros -134 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
06-04-17 | Red Sox -180 v. Orioles | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
06-03-17 | Astros -163 v. Rangers | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
06-03-17 | White Sox v. Tigers -130 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
06-02-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -116 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
06-01-17 | Brewers v. Mets -145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
05-31-17 | Nationals -170 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
05-31-17 | Red Sox -149 v. White Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
05-31-17 | Rays -140 v. Rangers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
05-30-17 | Red Sox -168 v. White Sox | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
05-30-17 | Phillies +106 v. Marlins | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
05-29-17 | Tigers v. Royals -105 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
05-29-17 | Brewers v. Mets -130 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
05-29-17 | Dodgers -108 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
05-28-17 | Royals v. Indians -134 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
05-27-17 | Diamondbacks -136 v. Brewers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
05-27-17 | Royals v. Indians -160 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
05-26-17 | Rays -133 v. Twins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
05-26-17 | Mariners v. Red Sox -172 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
05-26-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -144 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
05-25-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -139 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
05-25-17 | Rangers v. Red Sox -185 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
05-24-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -163 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
05-24-17 | Pirates v. Braves -124 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
05-23-17 | Indians -165 v. Reds | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
05-23-17 | Royals v. Yankees -142 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
05-21-17 | Brewers v. Cubs -183 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
05-21-17 | Nationals -166 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
05-19-17 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Padres | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
05-18-17 | White Sox v. Mariners -159 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
05-18-17 | Marlins v. Dodgers -180 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
05-18-17 | Reds v. Cubs -188 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
05-17-17 | Reds v. Cubs -164 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
05-17-17 | Astros -163 v. Marlins | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
05-16-17 | Dodgers -150 v. Giants | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
05-16-17 | Reds v. Cubs -185 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
05-15-17 | White Sox v. Angels -168 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
05-14-17 | Philadelphia Phillies - Game #2 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 -186 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
05-14-17 | Mets -138 v. Brewers | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
05-14-17 | Twins v. Indians -153 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
05-13-17 | Orioles v. Royals -103 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
05-13-17 | Braves +114 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 114 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
05-12-17 | Reds v. Giants -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
05-11-17 | Reds v. Giants -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
05-11-17 | Twins v. White Sox -125 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
05-10-17 | Royals v. Rays -187 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
05-09-17 | Twins v. White Sox +103 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
05-09-17 | Indians -164 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
05-08-17 | Angels v. A's -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
05-06-17 | White Sox v. Orioles -210 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
05-06-17 | Cardinals v. Braves -109 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
05-05-17 | Rangers -121 v. Mariners | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
05-05-17 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Rockies | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
05-04-17 | Angels v. Mariners -134 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
05-04-17 | Pirates -115 v. Reds | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
05-03-17 | Angels v. Mariners -123 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
05-02-17 | Rockies v. Padres -108 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners -142 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
05-02-17 | Pirates +114 v. Reds | Top | 12-3 | Win | 114 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
05-01-17 | White Sox v. Royals -166 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
05-01-17 | Pirates -114 v. Reds | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
04-30-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox -111 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
04-30-17 | Twins v. Royals -121 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
04-30-17 | Mariners v. Indians -154 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
04-29-17 | Orioles v. Yankees -166 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
04-28-17 | Twins v. Royals -126 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
04-27-17 | Astros v. Indians -168 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers -147 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
04-25-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -145 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
04-24-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -172 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
04-24-17 | Cubs -114 v. Pirates | Top | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
04-23-17 | Nationals v. Mets +144 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |