Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-11-18 | Mariners -137 v. Royals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
8* Seattle (2:10 ET): After an embarrassing effort in the opener of this three-game set (lost 10-0!), the Mariners were able to rebound yday w/ an 8-3 win, thus squaring things up heading into today's rubber match. Now 5-4 on the young season, the M's have not won B2B games since opening the season 2-0, but I like them to do so today as the Royals team they are facing is simply one that we should expect very little from this season. Interestingly, all three KC wins this year have come via shutout (two of them 1-0!). That 10-0 win on Monday was clearly an outlier considering it is the ONLY time in the previous time in the last eight games that they have scored more than three runs! I look for Seattle to take the series in convincing fashion this afternoon. The Royals' offensive woes have to be "music to the ears" of M's starter James Paxton, who comes in w/ an 0-2 TSR and 7.45 ERA. He's allowed 3 HR's and has a WHIP of 1.551, but the good news is that his second start was a lot better than the first. While the team still lost 4-2 to the Twins last Thursday, Paxton has seven strikeouts in five innings and allowed two runs on four hits. Felix Hernandez had little difficulty w/ this KC lineup yday and neither should Paxton today. Paxton is unbeaten in four career starts vs. KC, posting a 2.43 ERA. No Royals hitter has more than eight career AB's against him. Furthemore, KC's lineup has been weakened w/ Alex Gordon heading to the DL. While the Royals have surrendered zero runs in their three wins this year, they've allowed 38 in the six losses. Having southpaw Danny Duffy on the mound this afternoon figures to add to that latter number. Duffy has struggled mightily in his first two starts of '18. He actually has an identical ERA and WHIP to Paxton, but while Paxton at least showed some improvement from the first start to the next, Duffy most certainly did not. Duffy has allowed eight runs on 10 hits thus far, three of them coming via the home run ball. He could not hold a four-run lead in his first start and then allowed three runs in the first inning in his second. The Royals' bullpen is nowhere close to as good as it once was, so little relief can be offered there. We've already talked about the hitting woes and the Gordon injury does them no favors either. Good price to play against a bad team. 8* Seattle |
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04-10-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -172 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): It took 10 innings, but the Brewers won Monday's series opener here in St. Louis, by a score of 5-4. The Cardinals are now just 1-3 at home while the Brew Crew is 4-0 on the road. Of course, it was just last week when the Redbirds took two of three at Miller Park. Many have these two teams tabbed as Wild Card contenders in what is a top-heavy National League. Losing this series is certainly no death knell early in the season, but it's important for establishing dominance in the division. Starting for Milwaukee today is Brent Suter, who is off to a rough start in 2018. Through two starts, he has a 6.30 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. The Cardinals did not face him in last week's series. But Thursday, he gave up five runs in 5 IP to the Cubs in an 8-0 loss. Suter has gone 5 IP in both starts. He is winless in his career vs. St. Louis w/ a 4.50 ERA. Something to keep in mind w/ this Milwaukee team is that of their six wins, five have come in the final at-bat. Starting for St. Louis here will be Carlos Martinez, who dominated the Brew Crew last week as he went 8 1/3 IP and didn't allow a run. He finished w/ 10 K's as well. Martinez has really had Milwaukee's number throughout his career, posting a 1.98 ERA in 13 career starts w/ 101 K's in 91 IP. This will be his 1st home start of this year. I can't see St. Louis dropping B2B games at Busch Stadium nor can I see Milwaukee remaining perfect on the road. 8* St. Louis |
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04-10-18 | Astros -150 v. Twins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:10 ET): The Twins surprised everyone last year, going from 100+ losses the previous season to a Wild Card berth. It's only predictable that they will regress some this year and they are 4-3 through seven games. They dropped the series opener w/ Houston yday, 2-0. There has been no sign of regression from the defending World Series Champs meanwhile as they have started 8-2. They've won three straight including two by shutout. I see them winning again tonight behind Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel has allowed five runs in 11 IP so far this year. Last time out, he had some control issues (four walks), but it didn't matter as Houston beat Baltimore 3-2. He has 21 strikeouts in 20 career IP vs. the Twins. Houston has had a lot of success in this park the last two seasons, going 4-0 including outscoring them 40-16 last year. Keep in mind the Astros have allowed just one run total in the last three games. I believe Keuchel continues that trend. Minnesota gives the baseball to Jake Odorizzi. He has good career marks vs. Houston, some of the best against any opponent in fact. Something to note is that the Twins are 13-23 the L3 seasons as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I don't think Odorizzi succeeds here and you can note the Twins are allowing 6.5 rpg at home while the Astros are averaging 5.5 rpg on the road. 10* Houston |
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04-09-18 | Tigers v. Indians -188 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): The Indians were the top Under team in baseball and seem well on their way to doing so again in 2018 as none of their previous four games have seen more than five total runs scored. They've scored three runs or less in all of five of those games themselves. Yesterday was a 3-1 win as they managed to win the series w/ lowly Kansas City. A big reason why the Tribe are such prohibitive favorites to win the AL Central is the rest of the division itself. Personally, I don't see any of the other four teams finishing w/ a winning record. That includes the next opponent Detroit, a team coming off a sweep over another AL Central foe, the White Sox. Sweeps will not be common for this Tigers team, however, and I expect them to resume their losing ways here. Corey Kluber, who was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball last season, has pitched 15 innings so far and allowed just four runs. He has 14 K's and just three walks. Yet, the Indians lost both games. Both losses were by one run and obviously a lack of run support was the culprit. The offense supplied Kluber w/ just three runs total. Right now, the Indians have the lowest team batting average in the American League. Now, Kluber did allow a home run in both starts. But he should bounce back here against a team he went 3-1 against LY in five starts. The Tigers will give the baseball to Francisco Liriano, who is 5-6 all-time vs. Cleveland w/ a 4.19 ERA. In his first start of '18, Liriano pitched well, allowing just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 IP, although he had only three strikeouts. But I don't expect a repeat of that even w/ the cold temperatures that will favor the respective pitchers here. It also should be pointed out that the Tigers' offense has been quite anemic so far. They've scored 1 or 0 runs in three games so far and had only two hits in a 1-0 win yday. 8* Cleveland |
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04-09-18 | Rays -128 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (2:10 ET): We all expect the White Sox to not be any good in 2018, but it's been a real ugly start for the now 1-8 Rays, who badly need a win. Their lone win came on Opening Day and since then, it's been eight straight losses. To be fair though, so far they've only faced the Red Sox and Yankees. So today's series opener marks a rather huge drop in class. It will be a welcome one for starter Chris Archer, a good starter who has given up eight runs in just 11 IP so far, against two of the top offenses in baseball. Now he faces a White Sox team that has scored all of one run in its last two games and dropped five of six. As I said when I successfully played against Chicago earlier this year, it won't be too long until it's exceedingly rare that we see the Sox at these prices. The current losing streak is longer than any for the Rays all of last season. At no point last year did they suffer through a skid of more than five games. Now two of the last three games have been decided by exactly one run. So it's not exactly as if they're getting blown out. In fact, the team is now 0-5 in one-run games. Again though, look at who they played: two of the top four teams in the American League. They are now facing arguably the weakest AL team on paper, with their Opening Day starter on the hill. One thing to note is the fact Archer has 14 K's in 11 IP. Miguel Gonzalez did not have a strong 2018 debut. He allowed five runs and eight hits in a loss to the Blue Jays, lasting only five innings. His seven wins against the Rays are the most he has versus any opponent. That said, he doesn't have much backing him up here as the last series saw the offense bat a collective .217 and the bullpen has a 7.20 ERA/1.620 WHIP so far. Note the White Sox are also coming off a sweep, here at home, at the hands of a Tigers team that is simply not very good. They've played a far weaker schedule to this point than has Tampa Bay. 8* Tampa Bay |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals -157 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:05 ET): The Mets are off to a hot start as their 6-1 record is the best in the National League. They've won four in a row and tonight go for the sweep of the Nationals, in D.C. I don't see it happening, despite the fact the Nats have now dropped four in a row themselves. The home team was in position to win yday, leading by one run after both the fifth and sixth innings. But the Mets rallied for two in the top of the seventh and that was the gane. That being said, I just can't see Washington being swept at home this weekend. They'll salvage the finale tonight on ESPN. Tanner Roark will get the baseball for the Nats Sunday night, coming off a very strong 1st outing of 2018 where he allowed just one run and four hits in 7 IP. He had six strikeouts against just one walk as it wound up being an 8-1 win over Atlanta. Eight outs were via ground ball while two-thirds of Roark's pitches went for strikes. I view this as a favorable matchup as the Mets aren't really hitting all that well despite averaging almost 5.0 runs per game. Roark has pitched quite well against the Mets in the past, going 7-2 in 17 starts w/ a 2.76 ERA. The Mets have not swept the Nats in D.C. in three years. They counter Roark w/ Matt Harvey, himself coming off a very strong 1st start of '18. Harvey allowed no runs and just one hit in five innings of work as the Mets beat the Phils 2-0 Tuesday. He's working on one less days' rest than is Roark. Harvey has also struggled mightily in his career vs. the Nationals, going 3-6 over 14 starts. The last two years have been particularly bad as he's 0-3 w/ a 7.25 ERA in five tries. Are the Mets in line for a resurgent 2018? Probably. But they'll come up short tonight. 8* Washington |
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04-08-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -147 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -147 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (2:15 ET): We've got a rubber match in the Gateway City w/ the D'backs and Cards having split the first two games this weekend. Yesterday's game went the way of the Redbirds, thus snapping Arizona's four-game win streak. It was just the second loss all year for the D'backs, who were a playoff team last year (Wild Card), making a big jump from 2016. Despite said fast start, I expect them to regress a bit in 2018. Meanwhile, St. Louis is a team I've tabbed for the postseason as they look to be the second best team in the NL Central (behind the Cubs). They are now 4-4 on the season w/ this series being their first at home. It was the coldest temperature ever at Busch Stadium yesterday, which certainly had an effect on both teams, but more likely the visitors (who come from a warm-weather environment). Theoretically, the cold weather should aid the pitchers as well. But not Jose Martinez, who drove in all but one of St. Louis' runs. He homered, which was the difference as Arizona's Zack Greinke was pretty dominant after that. Today, the Cards get to face Taijuan Walker instead. He is nowhere near as good and in his first start, surrendered three runs in five innings. He gave up eight hits and walked two against just four strikeouts. Arizona did come from behind to win the game, 8-7, in 15 innings. Yet, the credit clearly doesn't go to Walker for that one. St. Louis counters w/ Luke Weaver, who overcame three walks in his first start to allow just one run on five hits as the team beat the Mets, 5-1. Neither side has hit well in this series, so I expect it to be low-scoring. But give the edge to the home team w/ the cold temperatures and the fact they have the hot bat (Martinez). It's also based on my respective forecasts for the two clubs this season. Note that despite the hot start, Arizona has scored just three runs in each of the last three games and three or fewer in four of the last six games. 8* St. Louis |
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04-07-18 | Mariners v. Twins -151 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -151 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (2:10 ET): The Twins have opened 4-2, outscoring foes by 15 runs. On Thursday, they won their home opener, beating the Mariners by a score of 4-2. Now this is a team I expect to regress some this year after they jumped from 100+ losses in '16 to a stunning Wild Card berth in '17. However, they are the better team compared to Seattle, who also isn't likely to win as many games this season as LY's already subpar record 78-84 record was "propped up" by a league-best 26-15 record in one run games. They've lost the last two games, the aforementioned one to the Twins on Thursday plus an ugly 10-1 loss to the sorry Giants. Jose Berrios pitches today for Minnesota. Hopefully, he pitches somewhat like he did in his first outing when he went the distance, delivering a complete game, three-hit shutout. Berrios had six strikeouts and issued just one walk and at one point retired 17 consecutive hitters. Something else to note here is the expected cold temperatures, something that affected Seattle Thursday and will likely be a factor again today. The Twins are certainly more used to those conditions. I don't expect the cold to affect the Twins' hitters, who are 2nd in the league in home runs w/ 12. This was a lineup that had three players w/ 27+ hitters a year ago. Coming into today, the Twins have scored twice as many runs as they have allowed. Seattle has been outscored by over a full run per game so far. Catcher Mike Zunino is still out of the lineup. Mike Leake will get the baseball and he's pitched well since coming over from St. Louis midseason last year. He allowed just two runs on five hits against Cleveland in his 2018 debut and the M's won 5-4 as +125 ML underdogs. He did allow one home run and issue three walks. He will struggle w/ this Twins lineup. Seattle has not been good as a road underdog, going 16-35 in the +125 to +175 range. I like the Twins in this spot. 10* Minnesota |
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04-06-18 | Braves v. Rockies -145 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
8* Colorado (4:10 ET): After playing seven in a row on the road (all against fellow NL West teams), the Rockies finally get to play their home opener on Friday. Since opening the season w/ B2B losses to the D'backs, they've won four of five as they took three of four from San Diego. Atlanta also comes in off B2B wins, theirs far more surprising, as they beat the Nationals. The Braves have yet to play on the road in 2018 and I don't like their chances here. Mother nature may or may not cooperate w/ us today, but I favor the Rockies by large margin here at Coors Field. Atlanta, believe it not, has a MLB best +21 run differential through six games. That's tied w/ Houston. But unlike the defending World Series Champs, I don't think anyone believes this will persist. They do already have a 15-2 and 13-6 win to their credit and are averaging 8.0 rpg. Again, I'm looking for all these numbers to start coming down. Starting today will be Brandon McCarthy. His 1st start of '18 went well enough, but he was inefficient in needing 97 pitches to get through just 5 1/3 innings (three walks). McCarthy has not pitched particularly well in his career vs. Colorado (5.40 ERA in 10 games), particularly here at Coors Field where he's 0-2 w/ a 7.94 ERA in four appearances. In 17 career innings pitched here in Denver, he's allowed 23 hits, four home runs, and seven walks. The Rockies counter w/ German Marquez, who allowed only an unearned run in five innings of work in his first start of the year. He has a 7-3 career mark here at Coors. That first start of the year came at another "pitcher unfriendly" environment (Chase Field), so kudos to him. Yes, the Rockies coming off a walk-off win yday while the Braves had the day off is a slight disadvantage. But despite the Braves' early returns, Colorado remains the much stronger team on paper, with a stronger everyday lineup and a stronger bullpen. The Rockies were obviously a strong home team last year and I expect them to really want to win this home opener. 8* Colorado |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (7:15 ET): The Cardinals were a nice winner for me last night as they shut out the Brewers (in Milwaukee), 6-0. After dropping the first two games of the season (both in New York), the Redbirds have now won three of four and turn their attention to the home opener Thursday night. As I said in yday's analysis, this Cards team shapes up to be (at worst) a Wild Card contender in what is a very "top-heavy" National League this season. A Wild Card is what Arizona was last season (finished 93-69) and they've gotten off to a hot 5-1 start in 2018 after just sweeping the Dodgers. But regression is what I see from this D'backs club this season and tonight marks their 1st road game. I'll play against them. Both teams won in shutout fashion Wednesday as Arizona blanked the Dodgers 3-0 w/ starter Patrick Corbin striking out a career-best 12 batters and allowing just one hit over 7 1/3 innings pitched. The D'backs were a really strong home team last year as well, going 52-29 at Chase Field, but only 41-40 on the road. So we really shouldn't be surprised at the fast start to this season, especially considering they were up against familiar opponents (two NL West rivals). But now let's see how they do on the road. I'm not banking on starter Robbie Ray pitching anywhere near as well as Corbin did last night. Ray gave up three home runs in his 1st start of the year and seven runs total (in just 5 IP), yet the D'backs hitters showed up to support him and the bullpen was able to hold on for a 9-8 win. Obviously, Ray won't continue to flourish in the win column if he continues to pitch the way he did last Friday. Also, he's never beaten the Cardinals in three tries, posting a poor 6.52 ERA. The last time he pitched here at Busch Stadium was a scary situation as he took a line drive off the head. Opposing Ray here will be Adam Wainwright, making his 2018 debut and looking to bounce back from the worst season of his career. But Wainwright can pitch w/ the confidence of knowing he has a rested bullpen behind him as last night's starter Carlos Martinez pitched into the ninth inning. Wainwright is also 8-4 all-time vs. Arizona w/ a 2.72 ERA. I'm willing to call his 2017 an "aberration" and look for the proverbial bounce back. The move to give the baseball to Wainwright is a change as Michael Wacha was originally set to start here. Don't discount that throwing the Arizona hitters off a bit. 10* St. Louis |
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04-04-18 | Cardinals -120 v. Brewers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (7:40 ET): This MLB season appears to be as "top heavy" as I've ever seen as virtually all prognosticators are going w/ the same exact six division winners while there's a real dearth of Wild Card contenders. Over in the National League, we know the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers are all going to be good. But after that, it's anybody's guess. Two teams that are at least "trying" in 2018 are the Cardinals and Brewers. Both are fancying themselves as WC contenders, if not challengers to the Cubs in the Central Division. The Brew Crew made a lot of high-profile additions in the offseason, garnering plenty of respect in the marketplace. But I feel they are overrated coming into the year. Now they have opened 4-1 w/ a win yday, but that also includes a sweep of the sorry Padres. St. Louis is now 2-3. They opened their season by dropping two of three to the Mets, in Queens. They came to Milwaukee and took Monday's series opener, pretty convincingly in fact (won 8-4), but then lost again yday by one run. However, for the first time in this series and only second time all year, the Redbirds find themselves favored on the money line here. They won the previous occasion (beat the Mets 5-1) and should do the same again here. Last night was an absolutely BRUTAL loss as the Cards allowed the Brewers to score a total of four times in the eighth and ninth innings, including B2B home runs to end the game. So they were well in position to win for a third straight time, only to fall short. It's funny because St. Louis actually opened the game w/ B2B HR's. According to MLB.com, it was the only game in history to both open and end w/ back to back home runs. Interesting! The two starting pitchers for tonight are both coming off rough first outings in 2018. Carlos Martinez is someone I actually played against on Opening Day (vs. Noah Syndergaard and the Mets) and he made it easy for me by issuing six walks in just 4 1/3 IP (Cards lost 9-4). But he's had Milwaukee's number through the years, posting a 2.18 ERA in 23 career appearances against them. He's pitched particularly well here at Miller Park as well. Brewers' starter Jhoulys Chacin also pitched poorly in his first start of the season, but the difference is his team was still able to come away w/ the victory. Chacin lasted only 3 1/3 innings and gave up seven hits (two home runs), yet the Brewers still beat San Diego 8-6 on Friday. That is one of three late inning rallies by the team, last night being the latest. But Chacin has fared terribly against St. Louis in his career, going winless (0-5) in six career starts w/ a 6.10 ERA. The fact that he has a 6-0 team start record dating back to the start of September last year is highly misleading as San Diego didn't exactly let him go for no reason. I view the Cards as the better team here and Chacin and the Brew Crew were fortunate to win his first start, and last night for that matter, as well. 10* St. Louis |
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04-03-18 | Indians v. Angels -137 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels lost for the 12th straight time to the Indians last night and did so in shutout fashion, 6-0, in what was their home opener. Talk about a disappointment. Cleveland is obviously one of the favorites in the AL this season, but the Halos are trying to fancy themselves as being part of that discussion as well. Many, myself included, feel this club is on the short list for a Wild Card spot. Coming off three straight wins and scoring 15 runs in the last two, last night was definitely NOT what they were looking for. Angels' pitching gave up three home runs to the Indians, one of them an inside-the-park job. But a key difference between that game and this one is that they are favored on the money line here. I feel it's justified and will call for the Halos to end their losing streak to Cleveland at long last. This will be the Indians' fifth straight road game (all out West) to open the year. They've alternated losses and wins to this point, dropping two of three in Seattle before this series. Josh Tomlin is the starter tonight for the 1st time in '18. It comes on eight days' rest as he last worked in the Spring all the way back on March 25th. Despite one of the lowest walk rates in the entire league last season, Tomlin finished just 10-9 w/ a 4.98 ERA. He probably won't be benefiting from an inside-the-park job again tonight and note Cleveland also scored an unearned run last night as well. Through four games, the Indians' lineup is batting a collective .191. The fact that they are averaging 4.2 runs per game seems somewhat fortuitous. The Angels' 4 and 5 hitters (Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun) have gone a combined 1 for their last 27 at the plate. That has to change considering they are hitting behind Mike Trout and it will change (for the better). Andrelton Simmons is picking up the slack w/ three multi-hit games though and is 9 for his last 20. Also, two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani will be in the lineup (as a DH) after being given the day off Monday (he pitched Sunday). Garrett Richards will get the baseball, certainly hoping for better results than what he delivered in the season opener. He was handed a four-run lead in Oakland, but could not hold it. His team start record is only 4-9 going back to the start of last season. But he's a better pitcher than that record shows and I see him and the Halos picking up a big win (on national TV) tonight. 10* LA Angels |
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04-03-18 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -181 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:07 ET): The Blue Jays had, somewhat surprisingly, dropped five of six at home to the White Sox the previous two seasons. For much of yday's game, they appeared on their way to another loss. They managed only four hits for the game, but one of those was a Russell Martin two-run HR that gave them the lead and win. The Jays have now won three straight going back to the series w/ the Yankees. This is a team that I've tabbed to improve in 2018 after suffering through B2B losing campaigns. I certainly give them a shot at the Wild Card. Pitching has been a strength through this three-game run, allowing just 15 hits total. Tonight, I envision J.A. Happ getting the job done against a poor White Sox team that should not put up much resistance. Chicago projects to be the worst team in the American League this season. They opened 2-0, but those wins came at home against Kansas City, another team whose outlook is hardly rosy. With just three games under their belt, they're still not through the starting rotation. Miguel Gonzalez makes his 1st start of the season tonight. He's no stranger to facing Toronto as he has a lifetime 3.63 ERA in 15 starts against them (7-4 record). But coming off a subpar 2017 (8-13, 4.62 ERA), I'm not expecting much here as he also had a bad Spring (5.40 ERA in four starts). The White Sox have not been a good road team these last three seasons (63-102 overall) and given the current state of the roster, I see that record only getting worse, not better. They are 18-44 in the +125 to +175 range (on the road) during that time. Happ beat Chicago twice last year, posting a 2.63 ERA. He started Opening Day, losing to the Yankees, but by no means did he pitch poorly. He allowed only four hits to the Yankees, but gave up three runs (two earned). One of those four hits was a home run and that is what cost him. He finished w/ 5 K's and just 1 walk in 4 2/3 IP. Toronto hasn't been hitting much so far in 2018 (.205 team BA), but since being held to just three runs in the two losses, they've scored a total of 16 runs the L3 days. Multiple hitters homered for the first time yday, Josh Donaldson among them, and he's now homered each of his L4 games against Chicago. As stated above, I expect Happ to pitch well in this spot. Plus, you can look for the Toronto hitters to pick up where they left off in last night's rally. The Jays are the far superior side here and I'll lay the price. 8* Toronto |
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04-02-18 | Twins v. Pirates -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (1:10 ET): After playing a doubleheader on Sunday (swept the Tigers), you might think that the Pirates are at a bit of a disadvantage Monday. But they are returning home where they'll now play under "NL rules" (i.e. no DH) against an American League team. It's early enough in the season where I don't view fatigue from "playing two" the previous day to be considered any real factor. Plus, the reason for yday's doubleheader was a rainout Saturday, so the Bucs have already had a day off. Today, they'll welcome in a Minnesota club that I'll be looking to play AGAINST more often than not in 2018. That's because regression is only natural following last year's stunning jump from 59 (in '16) to 85 wins and a Wild Card berth. This is a good price on the 3-0 Bucs in their home opener. The Twins opened their season by taking two of three from Baltimore. They lost Opening Day in extra innings, but bounced back w/ convincing wins by scores of 6-2 and 7-0. Now they are 10-4 the L2 seasons following a shutout win. Sunday saw starter Jose Berrios pitch a three-hitter in his first career game. But the starting rotation is NOT the strength of this Twins team. Today, it will be Lance Lynn getting the baseball, his first start in a Minnesota uniform since coming over from St. Louis via free agency. But the Pirates are no strangers to Lynn. They've faced him 23 times and the results haven't been that good for the right-hander, who is only 7-7 (just 4 quality starts) w/ a 5.10 ERA. Remember that the Twins, an AL team, are at somewhat of a disadvantage here due to losing the DH. Lynn is used to hitting, but it's clearly a downgrade in the lineup. Minnesota was favored on the ML only 73 times last season, making them a clear overachiever that is due to regress in 2018. Pittsburgh will counter Lynn w/ Jameson Taillon. While Lynn is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Taillon had his own "trials and tribulations" as he fought cancer last season. Despite that, he still managed to go 8-7 in 25 starts his rookie season. He also looked sharp in his last Spring start, tossing three scoreless innings. The Twins lineup, when at full strength, is pretty formidable. But Taillon gets a break here w/ the game contested under NL rules. Now Pittsburgh took full advantage of the DH in Detroit, scoring 13 and 8 runs in two of the three games. But they also won a 1-0 game yday. They've won four straight home openers and like I said earlier, this is a good price on them. Also, the Twins are just 48-72 in day games the L3 seasons. 8* Pittsburgh |
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04-01-18 | Cardinals -125 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (1:10 ET): I played the opener of this series (won w/ the Mets), mentioning that BOTH teams are viewed as Wild Card contenders in this year's top-heavy National League (where everyone is picking the same teams to win the three divisions). I also mentioned that the Mets might be a good 'play-on' team this year as last season's disastrous and injury-filled campaign resulted in heavy money losses to the tune of -30.2 units. It would only be natural for them to have a bounce back season at the betting window. Sure enough, the Mets didn't just win Thursday's opener, they also won Saturday (teams had Friday) off and are now looking for a sweep of the Redbirds. But, at least for one day, I'm switching course as St. Louis is favored here and for good reason. Sunday's starting pitching matchup decidely favors the road team as Luke Weaver will get the basebal for the Cardinals. Weaver had an 8-2 team start record in '17 w/ the Cards winning all four road starts. The Mets have never faced him. Given some poor play in the field yday, Weaver best be on his 'A-Game' today. I think he will be. While his last two starts of '17 weren't good, that came on the heels of seven consecutive outings allowed 2 ER or fewer. The Cards have yet to get quality start this year, but I feel Weaver is poised to give them one. Furthermore, this is a not a team that loses three in a row very often, especially to the same opponent. The bats should get going here too as they won't be facing Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom today. When healthy, the Mets have the potential to have a top five starting rotation. But Steven Matz certainly looks to be the proverbial "weak link." He's getting the baseball today, and that's a big reason why I'm fading the home team in this spot. Matz had an awful finish to 2017 and the team won only 3 of his 13 starts, only four of which were quality ones. He had an 0-4 TSR here at Citi Field and also lost to the Cardinals at Busch Stadium after giving up five runs in only 4 1/3 IP. Over his final seven starts of last season, Matz had a 1-6 TSR w/ a 10.17 ERA and 2.083 WHIP. Needless to say, those are absolutely dreadful numbers. The Mets have not started a season 3-0 since 2012 and while they've certainly looked like the better team in the first two games of this season, I see the Cards avoiding the sweep. 10* St. Louis |
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03-29-18 | Cardinals v. Mets -138 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (1:10 ET): Here's a couple of popular Wild Card picks this season. Everyone is going to pick the same three division winners in the National League (Nats, Cubs, Dodgers) and really you could say the same thing for the American League (Yankees, Indians, Astros). Turning to the Senior Circuit, the Mets and Cards have as good a chance as any of earning one of the other two playoff spots. I say this knowing full well the Metropolitans are coming off a disastrous campaign in which they won only 70 games and were outscored by 128 runs. But that had more to do w/ injuries than anything else. The core of their starting rotation (which has the capability of being top five in all of baseball) was almost never fully healthy. I like them to start 2018 out on a much better foot. Noah Syndergaard will get the baseball on Opening Day. His 2017 was emblematic of the team's overall poor luck. Because of injury, Syndergaard started only seven games. The team won only two of them, ironically the first two of the season. He made only two starts after April. But before tearing his right lat muscle, he had posted a 1.73 ERA and phenomenal 30-0 KW ratio. Despite being winless in two career starts vs. St. Louis, his ERA against them is 2.77. I absolutely love the hire of Mickey Callaway here as the former Indians pitching coach knows what it's like to manage a top flight rotation. He's got another one here, a group that is destined for massive improvement this season. The return of Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier coming in obviously strengthen the every day lineup. The Cardinals have actually failed to make the playoffs in B2B seasons, which is almost unheard of in the Gateway City. I think most figure them to be the most likely Wild Card team behind the three obvious division winners. That said, there are some question marks surrounding the Redbirds. They got a number of breakthrough seasons from different players last year and those may not be sustained. Carlos Martinez will start opposite Syndergaard on Opening Day, one year removed from a career-worst HR rate. He was the staff's most durable starter, but his TSR was only 17-15. Behind Martinez, I've got some concerns w/ the Cardinals' bullpen. There's a lot of turnover from LY and they appear to lack a dominant closer. This team was only 21-32 in the underdog role last season, a significant money loser. 10* NY Mets |
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03-29-18 | Cubs -185 v. Marlins | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (12:40 ET): It famously took more than a century (107 years to be exact) for the Cubs to finally win a World Series. So, last year's "failure" to defend the 2016 WS Championship was pretty easily forgiven by the Wrigley faithful. However, the fact is this remains a very talented ballclub, one that could easily win it all again. When you have a championship window like the Cubs have right now, one is nice, but two is certainly better. Coming into 2018 as the runaway favorite to win the NL Central and one of three clear favorites to win the entire Senior Circuit (along w/ Washington & the Dodgers), the Cubbies couldn't have asked for an easier 1st opponent. I expect them to win handily on Opening Day behind starter Jon Lester. Considering the length of time it took to win one World Series, those residing at the "Friendly Confines" have to somewhat envious that the Marlins have won two WS titles in just a quarter century of existence. Needless to say though, the Fish will not be adding to that number in 2018. This projects as quite possibly the worst team in all of baseball this season. The fact this team was still able to win 77 games a year ago (finished 2nd in a weak NL East) in the wake of the tragic passing of Jose Fernandez should be considered a minor miracle. But, needless to say, after saying goodbye to the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon (nice work Jeter!), the record will decline greatly. A 100-loss season is a real possibility here as oddsmakers have pegged Miami for only 63.5 wins in '18. No other NL team is expected to win fewer than 70 games. Surprisingly, the Cubs went only 4-3 against the Marlins last year. But sweeping them, even in Miami, is a real possibility to start '18. It's bad enough that the Marlins' roster was purged in the offseason. But even the Spring has been unkind to the club as starting catcher JT Realmuto and starting 3B Martin Prado are now out of the lineup due to injury. "It's giving us some challenges," Marlins manager Don Mattingly told The Miami Herald. "It's not how we wanted to start the season." The lineup card Mattingly turns in on Opening Day will hardly resemble a major league roster. Jose Urena gets the starting nod, but while he turned in a solid 14-win campaign last year, his strikeout rate was relatively low and his ERA was 3.82. I expect regression from the former middle reliever. It's not as if Miami's bullpen is any good either. For the Cubs, Lester may have seen a decrease in velocity LY, but he's won at least 10 games in five straight years. He's a reliable option to give the baseball to this afternoon. The Cubs also project to have a top five bullpen. 8* Chi Cubs |
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11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -158 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:15 ET): If you're like me, then you had the feeling this World Series was destined to go the distance as we have two seemingly evenly matched ballclubs that were - generally speaking - the best in their respective leagues during the regular season. The problem for Houston, however, is that the winner-take-all Game 7 is at Chavez Ravine, which is #1 for visitor run suppression this season. The pitcher-friendly environment got a hold of the Houston bats yet again last night as they were held to just one run on six hits. It was the third time in the series that the Astros were held to two runs or fewer while collecting six or less hits. For the season, visiting teams are batting just .215 in this ballpark while scoring an average of 3.3 runs per game. Houston fans will want to lean on the fact that they were the highest scoring road team in the regular season, but the loss of the DH hurts them here w/o question. I'm calling for the Dodgers to win the 2017 World Series tonight. For the third consecutive game, we have a starting pitching rematch from earlier in the series. In both previous instance, the starter that lost the initial meeting would win the rematch. Or at least their team did. Game 5 was a Game 1 rematch between Dallas Keuchel and Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw had outdueled Keuchel in Game 1 here at Dodger Stadium, but it was a far different result in Game 5 as the Astros won a classic, 13-12 in 10 innings (scored six runs off Kershaw). Then, last night in Game 6 marked the second time Justin Verlander and Rich Hill started against each other. Verlander and Houston had won Game 2, but last night it was Hill and the Dodgers' turn, ending Verlander's run of perfection in a Houston uniform (TSR was previously perfect). This trend certainly bodes well for Yu Darvish and the Dodgers tonight in Game 7 as Game 3 saw him chased after just 1 2/3 innings (allowed 4 runs). That made for an easy win for Lance McCullers, Jr and Houston at home. But I don't see McCullers beating Darvish twice in a row, especially now that the rematch is in LA. There's a bad trend in play here for Houston and that's the fact they are 0-6 this season when priced as a road underdog of +125 to +175. While they are 8-1 at Minute Maid Park this postseason, on the road the Astros are just 2-6. Need I remind you that the Dodgers were the best home team in the regular season and now sport a 63-25 record at Chavez Ravine (6-1 in playoffs). Darvish had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive outings before Game 3, so I look for him to bounce back now that he's in a friendlier ballpark and doesn't have to worry about facing a designated hitter. As for McCullers, he had won just one time in the second half before Friday. It's not as if he was dominant in Game 3 either as he had more walks (4) than strikeouts (3). One final note is that the Dodgers' bullpen is in a "better place" currently compared to their Astros' counterparts. Homefield matters in Game 7 and I'll call for Dodger Blue to win its first WS since 1988! 10* LA Dodgers |
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10-29-17 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (8:20 ET): What has been an outstanding World Series thus far is (potentially) about to get a whole lot better as we have the best pitcher from both sides set to face off in a critical Game 5. With the final two games (Game 7, if necessary) set to take place at Dodger Stadium, LA could take a HUGE step towards winning its first WS since 1988 w/ a win tonight. And they have just the pitcher to get them there, that of course being Clayton Kershaw, who is your likely NL Cy Young Award winner. Now, normally, in a rematch of two starters like this, I might side w/ the one who lost the last meeting. But as good as Houston's Dallas Keuchel has been at home, I'm not about to pass up Kershaw, particularly at this price. I've got the Dodgers going up 3-2. Last night's win means the Dodgers still haven't dropped B2B games this postseason. They didn't break things open until the top of the ninth when they scored five runs to essentially put the game out of reach. But like Houston's late surge in Game 2, the Dodgers clearly were the better team in Game 4 as their pitchers combined for a two-hitter (both HR's). It's no secret now that the Astros' offense (which was ranked #1 in all key categories during the reg season) is in a major slump and that's a major problem when getting set to face Kershaw. Dating back to the start of the ALCS, Houston has scored two runs or fewer in 6 of its last 11 games. Kershaw held them to just one run on three hits (over 7 IP) w/ 11 K's (no walks) in Game 1, improving his impeccable TSR to 27-4 this season. The Dodgers have won the L6 times Kershaw has started (4-0 in playoffs) and he has a 1.99 ERA on the road this season. Now Houston does have Keuchel going in an immediate revenge spot (lost to Kershaw in Game 1) and he's generally been pretty spectacular at home this year w/ a 2.03 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. But, his L2 starts have seen him allow a total of seven runs in 11 2/3 IP (13 hits). He also allowed 2 HR's in Game 1. I know that was in LA, but even here at home he's an underdog on the money line, something that was also the case in both of his last two starts. Kershaw is the better of the two pitchers and LA has the "momentum" (hate that word!) off the Game 4 victory. Houston will be desperate, but the Dodgers will be better. 8* LA Dodgers |
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10-28-17 | Dodgers +111 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 111 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:15 ET): Houston looks to take a commanding 3-1 World Series lead on Saturday night, but after "zigging" last night (cashed *10* GOW on the Astros), I'll "zag" here and take the Dodgers. Granted, in my Game 3 analysis, I spoke at length at how the "rules of engagement" have now changed in this series w/ it moving to Minute Maid Park. The DH is now in play, plus the Dodgers aren't nearly as dominant on the road as they are at Chavez Ravine where they give up fewer runs per game than any other home team in baseball. Houston has yet to lose at home this postseason, but the Dodgers have also yet to drop B2B games. So something will have to give here in Game 4 and I believe it's the former. Take the Dodgers to even this series up at two games apiece. Houston had the #1 offense in baseball during the regular season, whether you're talking runs scored, team batting average, OBP or slugging. But a curious thing took place when you split their home and road numbers and that's they were a lot more prolific at the plate away from Minute Maid Park. They did get to Yu Darvish last night, but overall have not exactly been hitting the cover off the baseball dating back to the ALCS. The Dodgers will send lefty Alex Wood to the hill Sat night and he's been especially good on the road this year w/ a 7-2 record in 14 starts, a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP. Wood's only postseason start thus far was the team's lone pre-World Series loss, Game 4 against the Cubs in the NLCS. He did give up three homers there, which is a concern, but that was a game where the wind was blowing out at Wrigley. Houston counters w/ Charlie Morton, who had one successful and one not-so-successful outing opposite CC Sabathia and the Yankees in the ALCS. The first time around, he gave up seven runs in only 3 2/3 IP. The second time, which was Game 7, he came up big w/ five shutout innings of two-hit ball. But Morton has yet to go more than five innings in any of his three postseason starts thus far. With the bullpen situation the way it is for both teams (very high usage rates!), I give a big edge in starting pitching here to the Dodgers w/ Wood, who has only had to start one time this postseason as opposed to the three times for Morton. Also, Wood led all of MLB in win percentage during the regular season, going 16-3. With Morton, only 10 of his 28 starts this year have been quality ones, which is a pretty low percentage when you think about it. At 1 for 12 w/ RISP the L2 games, I have to think the Dodgers are due for some more timely hitting moving forward. 10* LA Dodgers |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros -128 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:20 ET): The Astros "stole one" in Game 2, rallying back to win 7-6. For me, it was a crushing beat on the Under (O/U line was 7.5) as the game was 3-1 entering the eighth inning. But Houston could certainly "care less" about that considering they've now evened up the series at a game apiece and the scene now shifts back to Minute Maid Park where the "rules of engagement" change dramatically. Sure, the Astros' offensive production actually DROPS here at home. But they will regain use of the DH here, something that was absent for the first two games. Also, perhaps they "deserved" to win Wednesday as they drastically outhit the Dodgers, 14-5. LA was nowhere near as strong on the road (47-34) as they were at home (57-24) in the regular season and has only had to play three road games thus far in the playoffs, all of them coming when they held a commanding lead in the series. Houston is a perfect 7-0 at home so far this postseason! I'm on them in Game 3. The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers, Jr tonight. McCullers was a solid wager early in the season as he started out w/ a 12-2 TSR (through June 24th), but things have certainly "gone South" ever since as he hasn't won another decision (!) in 10 starts (1-9 TSR). Granted, injuries have played a part in that too as he missed all of August due to "arm fatigue." However, there are certainly signs that he's at least close to regaining that early season form. In two ALCS appearances, McCullers allowed only one run in 10 IP. That was one start and one relief appearance and while the team lost the former, it really wasn't his fault. There might be a little concern w/ this Dodgers offense right now as they only had five hits in Game 2, but were fortunate that four of them were home runs. It also seems like good fortune that the team is averaging 5.3 runs per game over its last seven contests given the team batting average is .233 during that time. Granted, they have to be feeling comfortable w/ Yu Darvish set to take the mound for Game 3 as he's now allowed 1 or 0 ER in five consecutive starts, which dates back to the regular season. The fact that the run dates back to the regular season is key because three of those starts came against the Giants, Phillies and Padres, who are quite possibly the three worst offensive teams in all of baseball. Then there is the matter of Houston being familiar w/ him due to his time spent w/ Texas in the AL West. Darvish is just 5-5 all-time vs. the Astros (14 starts) w/ a 3.44 ERA. Conversely, the Dodgers have never seen McCullers. 10* Houston |
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10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): Big bets have reportedly been laid down on Dodger Blue for Game 1 of the Fall Classic and I'll be making one myself. That's in large part because Clayton Kershaw gets the starting nod of the series opener and the game is being played at Chavez Ravine. Kershaw, your likely NL Cy Young winner, comes in w/ a 26-4 TSR this season. He has a 2.43 ERA and 0.952 WHIP. That includes a 14-2 TSR at home where the Dodgers are 61-24 overall. Furthermore, LA has dominated American League foes this season, going 16-4 overall. Throw in the fact that the Astros have gone 0-5 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and this seems like a slame dunk. The Dodgers are 7-1 in the postseason, losing only Game 4 of the NLCS. We all thought this team was vulnerable when they lost 16 of 17 games back in late August/early September, but it turns out that was just a minor "market correction" for a team that otherwise went 110-42 in all other games. Over the L6 games, they have allowed three runs or less every time. Getting the home field edge in this series is huge as Dodger Stadium is #1 in MLB for visitor run suppression at 3.3 runs per game. They have possibly the best pitcher in the game going tonight and remember that Houston did not swing the bats well in the ALCS, finishing that series w/ a .187 team batting average and average of 2.9 rpg. Houston's hitting woes aren't likely to be rectified in the first two games of the World Series as they lose the DH from the lineup. Now they do have Dallas Keuchel starting tonight, but on the road his numbers do jump to a 3.77 ERA and 1.309 WHIP. Compare that to his home numnbers, which are 2.03 (ERA) and 0.937 (WHIP). The Dodgers, over the L7 games, have held opponents to a .157 team batting average and 2.0 runs per game. The Dodgers are also significantly better in 2017 when facing left-handed starters, going 37-15 in those games while outscoring the opposition by a full run per game. 8* LA Dodgers |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -114 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians -177 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -177 | 33 h 0 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): It's a winner take all Game 5 in Cleveland tonight as the Indians' 2-0 series lead has evaporated thanks to them losing both games in the Bronx. But this is where them finishing w/ the AL's best record comes in "handy" as they're now back at home w/ the probable Cy Young winner Corey Kluber on the hill. Granted, the last time this situation presented itself (Game 2), things got a bit dicey w/ the Yankees knocking out Kluber early (after just 2 2/3 IP!). But, as you know, the Tribe came back to win that game, 9-8, in 13 innings. Had it not been for that rally, the team that won an AL-record 22 straight games would already be done. But fortunately for them, the likelihood of Kluber struggling again is small and the numbers back that assertion up. Not including Game 2, there have been four other instances of Kluber allowing 4+ runs in a start this season. Three of them occurred back in April/May before he spent almost a month on the DL. All four times have seen him bounce back w/ a quality outing where he allowed 2 ER or less. The last three times in the scenario, he's allowed only 1 ER in a total of 24 IP w/ TWO complete games and his KW ratio was 30-4. Ironically, the last time he was coming off a poor outing, he happened to face the Yankees (here at Progressive Field) and tossed a CG three-hitter (allowed 1 ER). This is a pitcher w/ a 0.897 WHIP for the year and backed by one of the game's top bullpens. If you're manager Terry Francona and you need to win a game, Kluber is clearly who you want pitching. The Yankees have a losing road record on the year. Over the L7 games, their vaunted offense is batting a collective .206. They woke up in Game 4, but that was at home. I maintain that this offense is too reliant on the long ball and if they're not hitting home runs, they simply don't score much. CC Sabathia (former Indian!) will oppose Kluber here, just like he did in Game 2. I was surprised that the hefty lefty was able to pitch as well as he did last Friday, but even then he did allow four runs (two unearned) and issue three walks. While Sabathia has a team start record (19-9) similar to Kluber's (21-9), his ERA is a over a full point higher and his WHIP is 1.266, compared to Kluber's league-leading number (see above). Again, this is the AL's top pitcher on the mound as a big home favorite. In his final 15 reg season starts, Kluber posted a 1.79 ERA and a 142-12 KW rate. Edwin Encarnacion could be back tonight for Cleveland, which would be a nice lift. 8* Cleveland |
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10-08-17 | Indians -108 v. Yankees | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): It is "all over but the shouting," in my opinon, for the New York Yankees. If they couldn't win Game 2, a scenario that saw them knock probable Cy Young winner Corey Kluber out of the game early and take an 8-3 lead, then just how are they going to beat these Indians? I find it highly unlikely that they'll be able to "knock around" Cleveland's Game 3 starter, Carlos Carrasco, who comes in w/ a stupendous 24-8 team start record, including 7-0 his L7. Sure the scene now shifts to Yankee Stadium, but Carrasco is 11-2 on the road this year (13-4 TSR) w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.997 WHIP, better numbers than he has in his home park. Teams that are off B2B losses in the MLB Playoffs and are a ML dog have only managed to go 13-28 in the next game since '05. I look for the Tribe to complete the sweep here and advance to the ALCS (where they'll likely be matched up against Houston). Let us not forget that Cleveland has won 43 of its last 50 games! That includes the 7-0 mark when Carrasco pitches and he's been downright filthy during that time. We're talking a 1.27 ERA and 0.966 WHIP as he's allowed 1 or 0 ER six times. He did lose his lone regular season start against the Yankees, giving up five runs in 5 2/3 IP, but that was at Progressive Field which is where his only non-quality start out of the last seven also took place. The Yankees a formidable offensive team here in the Bronx, averaging 5.6 rpg. But I don't see them "getting off" like they did against Kluber in Game 2. This lineup is a little "too dependent" on the home run in my opinion and it should be a performance somewhere in between the levels of Game 1 and 2 here. It just won't be enough. Masahiro Tanaka will start for the Yanks. Like Carrasco, he was brilliant in his final regular season start, allowing no runs on three hits in seven innings and striking out 15. (Carrasco came within one out of a CG shutout and had 14 K's vs. Minnesota). But the difference between the two starters here is that Carrasco is more consistent. Case in point, the start before last saw Tanaka give up eight runs. That's more than Carrasco has allowed in his L7 starts combined! Tanaka also allowed seven runs in his first start in September. Granted, both bad efforts came on the road. But there's a lot of pressure here on Tanaka, not just due to the gravity of the situation (season on the line), but also because the Yankees bullpen has been severely taxed twice this week (Wild Card Game and Game 2). By the way, the Cleveland offense averages 5.1 rpg on the road this year, second most in all of baseball. They and the Astros were by far the league's two best road teams. How appropos then that they might meet in the ALCS? 10* Cleveland |
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10-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -262 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
6* LA Dodgers (10:35 ET): It seems as if Arizona is a VERY trendy underdog coming into this LDS matchup with the Dodgers. And why wouldn't they be? After all, they've swept the Dodgers the last two times they faced them and LA really stumbled down the stretch, losing 22 of its last 35 games. However, clearly, this Dodgers team is nowhere near as bad as they played during that infamous 1-15 stretch, just like they probably weren't as good as their 91-36 start to the season. It was a simple "market correction" that occurred in late August, nothing more. An extraordinarily high Game 1 price isn't about to scare me away though as tonight's pitching matchup is every bit the mismatch the oddsmakers are making it out to be. Look for the home team to take Game 1. Arizona may have won six straight times over Dodger Blue, but there are numerous concerns for Game 1. For starters (pun intended!), Taijuan Walker hasn't been very good of late as his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts are 5.27 and 1.683 respectively. When you combine that with the fact that the D'backs are one of baseball's lightest hitting road teams, it's definitely not good. Arizona ranked 28th in the regular season in team batting average (.235) away from home, just ahead of San Diego and Texas. They were 24th in OBP and 23rd in slugging. Thus, the fact they ranked 16th in runs scored on the road should be considered somewhat fortunate. As you may know, Dodgers Stadium was #1 in MLB all year long in run suppression w/ visitors averaging only 3.3 rpg here. Walker does have a 3-0 TSR against the Dodgers in 2017, but still, I think the team would rather have Zack Greinke (pitched Wild Card Game) or "Dodgers-killer" Robbie Ray (had to come on in relief in WC Game) starting in this spot. Kershaw turned in another Cy Young caliber season w/ a 2.31 ERA and 0.949 WHIP in 27 starts. The team went 23-4 in those 27 starts, so this is definitely the guy they want on the mound in this spot. Note that when Arizona swept the Dodgers twice in 10 days back in late August/early September, they did not face Kershaw, who was 2-0 against them in the regular season (allowed 1 run on 6 hits in 15 1/3 IP w/ 19-3 KW rate). The Dodgers finished the regular season w/ the best home record in all of baseball (57-24) and that includes a 13-2 record when priced above -250 on the money line. They are 27-5 in that range the L3 seasons, the majority of those games coming when Kershaw starts. As for Arizona, they were just 1-3 as a road dog of +175 to +250 in the reg season and 7-21 in that range the L3 seasons. I'm not ready to call this series for the Dodgers, but w/ the best pitcher in the National League going at home, they'll take Game 1 and avenge those two sweeps. 6* LA Dodgers |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -166 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
8* Arizona (8:05 ET): Compared to the AL Wild Card matchup, the perception here is a far more "even" battle is set to take place. But with the game at Chase Field and Zack Greinke pitching, it's a massive edge to the D'backs, which is not properly reflected in the pricing. Consider that Arizona outscored its visitors by the widest margin of all home teams in the National League. The big key here is that unlike Coors Field in Colorado, visiting teams do not typically get to share in the offensive outbursts regularly seen from the home team at Chase Field. That's not good news for a Colorado offense which has always had its fair share of problems away from the high altitude of Denver and only averaged 4.1 rpg on the road in the regular season. Now they must deal w/ Greinke, who has always been an outstanding home pitcher throughout his career. Though he was a little shaky at the end, particularly the 9.22 outing vs. Miami where he allowed eight runs, 2017 marked another strong regular season from Greinke. He finished in the top six in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP among all NL starters. I mentioned earlier that he's always been a dominant pitcher at home, whether we're talking previous stints in KC, Milwaukee and Los Angeles, or the current one here. At Chase Field this season, he posted a 13-1 WL record w/ a 2.87 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in 18 starts (15-3 TSR). He was a major reason why the D'backs allowed 231 runs LESS than LY's 93-loss team! In fact, the D'backs quietly allowed a fewer number of runs this year than everybody but the Indians and Dodgers. The rotation's WAR led the NL and Greinke is the best of the lost. Assuming he gets the requisite amt of run support here, Greinke should notch yet another home victory. Colorado allowed almost 100 runs more than Arizona in the regular season and easily the most among the 10 playoff teams. A lot of that can be attributed to the "Coors Effect," but the most suspect of the 10 starting rotations left can't really be trusted right now either. Jon Gray is the choice for Wednesday and while his numbers may look decent, his ERA & WHIP are only 4.06 and 1.352 on the road. Over the next 48 hours, you may hear a lot about how he did win twice here at Chase Field during the reg season, but neither of those starts came opposite Greinke, who makes the margin for error so slim. These teams finished w/ identical road records (41-40), but the difference was Arizona going 52-29 at home. That's why this game is being played at Chase Field and not Coors. Only the Dodgers won more games at home than the D'backs this year. This will be Greinke's SIXTH time facing the Rockies' lineup this year, so he should know the individual hitters well. With a significant edge in starting pitching and a dominant homefield edge, I see no reason to go against the D'backs in this spot. 8* Arizona |
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09-29-17 | A's v. Rangers -114 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers have now - inexplicably - lost seven straight times to the division rival A's over the last month. They've also lost their last seven games overall. As a result, they have nothing to play for but pride on the final weekend of the regular season. However, I'm willing to stick to my philosophy and "go down w/ the ship" if necessary. The idea that they could continue losing to Oakland, day after day, seems pretty outlandish to me, especially considering the A's horrid 28-50 road record. They're being outscored by 1.2 rpg on the road this year, so it's not as if they've been competitive either. The two prior sweeps of the Rangers both took place in Oakland. I'm a firm believer in taking a team w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three or more games) and seeing as Texas now has revenge for two sweeps (plus last night), I'm on them again here. Admittedly, things have not gone well for the Rangers over the last week as they've been outscored by an average 6.3 rpg during the losing streak. Last night was a 4-1 loss. Oakland happens to be trending in the opposite direction as they've won 16 of their last 21 games, including 9 of the last 11. But, I'm still willing to call for a halt to these disparate streaks tonight. Texas will have Martin Perez on the hill as he makes his team-leading 32nd start. Granted, the numbers aren't great and he did allow five runs (in 4 2/3 IP) his last start, which was against these A's. But that also came on the heels of a stretch that saw him allow 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts. So, a bounce back is likely here. Oakland generally does not hit well away from home (.237 team BA). Perez's ERA has dropped nearly two full points here in the second half of the season. The A's counter w/ Raul Alcantara, who has made just three starts prior to this one. He has a 6.75 ERA even though he's not allowed a single run in 8 2/3 innings of work here in September. (That should tell you how bad the 1st start, which took place all the way back in April, was). He threw five shutout innings against the Rangers last week in what ended up being a 1-0 A's victory. But the Rangers were also the ones that hammered him for eight runs in just two innings back in April. Expect Alcantara's performance tonight to be "somewhere in the middle" of the previous two against Texas. The A's are just 18-25 vs. lefty starters this year and 49-83 against them the L3 seasons. 10* Texas |
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09-29-17 | Dodgers -106 v. Rockies | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): There's only one playoff spot still up for grabs and it's in the National League, currently occupied by the Colorado Rockies. Having been in playoff position EVERY DAY THIS SEASON except one (April 14th!), things are looking good for the Rockies heading into the regular season's final weekend. One of two teams that was chasing them, the Cardinals, were officially eliminated last night. They have a two game edge on the Brewers, who close out in St. Louis. As long as Colorado wins one game this weekend, they are at least assured of a play-in game against Milwaukee. That's if the Brew Crew were to sweep the Cards or win two out of three (if Rockies get swept). Not sure what's going to take place in that NL Central series, but here out West, things are not going to be easy on the team in pole position. They have to face the Dodgers, who are still trying to lock down homefield advantage for the entire postseason. Dodger Blue has revenge here for a four-game sweep that took place at home earlier this month. As a result, I like the road team in this series opener. The Dodgers have the unique distinction of being the ONLY team in MLB history to both win and lose 15 times in a 16 game stretch in the same season. But, clearly, they've won a lot more than they've lost this year as they enter Friday w/ the best overall record in baseball at 102-57. They are two games up on the Indians, so a win tonight would guarantee them homefield advantage throughout the postseason. That would be huge considering the club's impressive 57-24 WL record at Chavez Ravine. Granted, this series is on the road and in the total opposite environment of Dodgers Stadium (#1 in run suppression for visitors). But LA comes in playing well, having taken six of seven including four straight. Admittedly, those wins came at the expense of the Padres and Giants, but in the case of the last series (against SD), they were as dominant as you'd hope. They outscored the Padres 28-5 in the three games and are allowing an average of 2.0 runs the L7 games w/ opponents batting just .215. Hyun-Jin Ryu will start the opener for Los Angeles, bringing in a 1.38 ERA his L3 starts. Sadly, he hasn't won any of those, nor has his team! So, he's "due" in light of recent performance. In three September starts, Ryu has allowed just two runs in 13 IP. The problem has been the offense scoring just one time in all three games. Here at Coors Field, he should expect more run support. Of course, that works both ways as you can't necessarily expect Ryu to allow 1 or 0 ER, but fortunately Colorado's Chad Bettis comes in sporting an 8.10 ERA and 2.100 WHIP his L3 starts. Even better, in nine career appearances, Bettis has a 9.60 ERA against the Dodgers. Both teams had Thursday off and that's to the Dodgers advantage as they are 13-3 after an off-day (Colorado just 9-9). 8* LA Dodgers |
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09-28-17 | A's v. Rangers +105 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers have dropped six in a row, not that it matters anymore as what was once a very wide open chase for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League has now been decided w/ the Twins clinching yday. At the start of the season, I called for major regression from the Rangers as LY's team may have finished w/ the best record in the A.L. (95 wins), but they outscored opponents by only EIGHT runs over the entire season! They set a new MLB mark for best ever record in one-run games, which is an unsustainable blueprint for success. The unlikelihood of them making the playoffs this year was cemented when they became sellers at the trade deadline, most notably dealing away ace Yu Darvish. However, all that being said, there is tremendous value in taking the Rangers here tonight. Yes, they've not only been swept in two consecutive series, but they've got a rare case of double revenge to exact against the A's. Oakland is responsible for three of the Rangers' six straight losses, having swept them last weekend (by the Bay). They also swept them in Oakland late last month. It's very rare to see one opponent sweep another twice in a row, especially when the team that sweeps is the inferior ballclub. Instrumental to this play is Oakland's home/road splits. As mentioned before, both sweeps of Texas took place at home. Following yday's win, this team is 46-35 (+13.3 units!) at the O.co Coliseum. But on the road, they've been a disaster all year, turning in a 27-50 record (-16.1 units) while being outscored by 1.3 runs pe game. Only the Giants have fewer road wins this year (what is it about leaving the Bay area?) and only a handful of teams have a worse run differential away from home this year. Pitching tonight for Texas will be Miguel Gonzalez. It's his second straight time starting against the A's. Last weekend, he was a hard luck loser. He allowed just one run on four hits, that one run being a solo HR, but sadly that was the difference in the game as Oakland won 1-0. Gonzalez had five strikeouts and zero walks in six innings. That followed him allowing just one run on two hits in 5 IP his previous start, which was a 4-2 win over the Angels. The A's counter here w/ Sean Manaea, who has a rather ugly 1.840 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 10 runs on 17 hits in the L2, which have spanned only 8 2/3 innings. His L11 starts have seen him allow opponents to bat .346 (!) and he's 3-5 w/ a 6.27 ERA. He has a 6.10 ERA in two starts vs. Texas this year. Getting back to the A's road woes, they are only 1-5 here in Arlington this season, getting swept once themselves. The Rangers are not as bad as they've played recently while Oakland is not as good as its played recently. The A's are also w/o rookie Matt Olson the rest of the way and he was the primary reason for the team's offensive resurgence. With neither side having much to play for (except pride), I'm banking big on the revenge angle here. 10* Texas |
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09-27-17 | Reds v. Brewers -156 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -156 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Despite not even playing a game, the Brewers were a big winner Monday as both the Rockies and Cardinals lost. That left them 1.5 games back of Colorado and one game up on St. Louis (who they close the season against). That deficit and lead stayed the same after Tuesday's results though as all three teams won, including the Brew Crew 7-6 over the Reds. This series is a revenge spot for the home team who was swept down in Cincy earlier this month. Milwaukee badly needs to return the favor here in order to catch Colorado for that 2nd Wild Card. Fortunately, it looks like the lowly Reds will be all too quick to oblige. Cincy has now dropped seven in a row and is 27-48 on the road (-1.3 rpg). Last night's game was not as close as the final one-run margin might seem to indicate. The Brewers led 4-0 after the first inning and 6-2 after three. Reds pitching has generally been pretty bad all season. The staff ranks 29th in ERA and 28th in WHIP and has given up the most runs in the National League (850). But lately, things have gotten real dire w/ this group. They've allowed an average of 6.7 rpg during the seven-game losing streak and that figures to only get worse w/ the likes of Homer Bailey on the hill Wednesday. Bailey has a 6.96 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in 17 starts. In three starts against Milwaukee this year, his ERA is 7.07. What's really frightening however, is that out of those 17 starts this season, Bailey has made it past the sixth inning only ONCE. That means the Reds' horrid bullpen (5.13 ERA, 1.510 WHIP on the road) is likely to come into play here. The Brewers were able to take advantage of a starter making his big league debut (in the starter's role) last night. Tonight, it will be them turning to a rather inexperienced hurler. Brandon Woodruff will be making only his eighth career start in this "must-win" spot and he's yet to win in four tries here at Miller Park. However, that record and his ERA are rather deceiving. His WHIP at home is 1.103, which is actually very good. He's just been a victim of some bad "cluster luck." Take his last start for example. He allowed five hits in five innings against the Cubs, but wound up giving up four runs. Three walks certainly didn't help there, but control really hadn't been an issue previously. Milwaukee badly needs this win and I think they'll get it. 10* Milwaukee |
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09-27-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -182 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:10 ET): After a disappointing loss in the series opener, the Rockies came back and won for me on Tuesday, 6-0, thereby avenging a prior sweep at the hands of the Marlins (that took place last month). The home team certainly has more on the line here as they try and hold onto the 2nd Wild Card spot in the National League. Because both Milwaukee and St. Louis also won last night, the Rockies lead is now 1.5 and 2 games respectively over those two clubs. Miami is simply playing out the string this final week. With what looks to be a decided starting pitching edge, I look for Colorado to exercise it homefield advantage to the fullest Wednesday afternoon and dominate yet again. The Rockies, not surprisingly, are yet again the highest scoring home team in all of baseball at 5.9 rpg. This does not bode well at all for Marlins starter Adam Conley, who comes in w/ an ugly 10.49 ERA and 2.165 WHIP his L3 starts. Pitching in another hitter-friendly park (Chase Field) his last start, Conley surrendered seven runs in just 1 2/3 innings. For the year, he's 7-6 in 19 starts, but his TSR is 9-10 and his ERA/WHIP are 5.71/1.490. I look for him to struggly mightily in this spot. He's simply not giving skipper Don Mattingly many innings of late as he's made it past the fifth inning just one time in four September starts. As a result, he has a 9.56 ERA this month. Colorado has gone 34-22 against southpaw starters in 2017. Conley did not face them in the series last month. Push Miami north of +175 on the ML and their record on the road is just 2-8 this season. Overall, they've dropped 16 of their last 24 ballgames. Conversely, Colorado is 10-5 this season north of -175 at home and they are also 34-22 in day games. Jon Gray starting justifies the price range here as he comes in having allowing 3 ER or fewer in 12 consecutive starts! During that time, he's gone 6-3 w/ a 2.49 ERA. Opponents are batting only .249 against him w/ a .656 OPS. His KW ratio is 75-16 and he's allowed only 65 hits in 72 1/3 IP. So this is precisely the pitcher the Rockies would want starting in this spot. Over his last four starts, Gray has allowed just four runs (in 24 IP) on 18 hits and has 28 strikeouts (against just four walks). Perhaps most impressive of all is him allowing only 3 HR's his L10 starts. With the two teams chasing them (Brewers & Cardinals) set to play a three-game series this weekend, it's vital that the Rockies maintain their edge in the standings going into Friday. There's a good chance that those two will "take each other out," thereby costing themselves the Wild Card. 8* Colorado |
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09-26-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -155 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies were another team that let me down last night, but I'm banking on them bouncing back Tuesday. They better as their lead over Milwaukee has been trimmed to just one game in the chase for the final playoff spot in the National League. St. Louis also lost yday, so they remain two back. It would be a real shame if the Rockies ended up missing the playoffs as they have been in position to make it virtually all season. The team they are facing here, Miami, has ZERO to play for this week and Colorado still has revenge for a sweep that took place down in Florida last month. The Rockies certainly had their chances last night (had more total bases), but routinely failed to capitalize. The highest scoring home team in the majors, they should rebound here. Colorado has not made the playoffs since 2009. Perhaps the pressure is getting to them as they've now dropped six of eight, which includes a losing road trip in San Diego and San Francisco. Facing a third straight non-playoff team, they have to begin to take advantage of this schedule. Milwaukee has a very favorable stretch coming up w/ the lowly Reds coming in for three games. Colorado will wrap up its regular season by hosting the Dodgers this weekend. One thing that is good from their perspective is that Milwaukee plays St. Louis, so those two could conceivably "knock each other out" (of contention). But the Rockies need to expand their lead in the next two days first. Miami's staff gives up plenty of runs already on the road (5.5 per game), so I expect the Rockies to score plenty here. Pitching for the home team will be Tyler Anderson. Like most members of the starting rotation, he got off to a fast start in 2017. But then he hit a bit of a wall. Still, since returning from knee surgery, he's made B2B quality starts, including six shutout innings of two-hit ball in his lone start here at Coors. Opponents have hit just .173 against him in the two games (though admittedly both opponents were San Diego). Miami is just 12-19 vs. LH starters this year. They will counter w/ Jose Urena, who has a 17-9 TSR and has looked good in September. He is 9-1 in 12 road starts, but it's worth mentioning his ERA is 4.34. He's thrown 100+ pitches in each of his L4 starts, so I'm interested to see what he has left in the tank here. My guess is the Rockies get to him early. They average 6.0 rpg at home this season. 8* Colorado |
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09-26-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals -113 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals failed miserably in their attempt to make up ground in the NL Wild Card race last night, losing 10-2 to the Cubs. While the loss ended up not hurting the Redbirds (Colorado also lost), they still have to also jump Milwaukee (who is a game up on them). As for the defending World Series Champs, reducing their magic number for clinching the NL Central to one. As discussed yday, the Cubs would love nothing more than to clinch the division title in their rival's ballpark. But, St. Louis obviously has a lot to play for here as well and will be sending Carlos Martinez to the hill tonight. The revenge angle from a prior sweep by the Cubs (last week at Wrigley) is obviously still in play here. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me, I guess. I was really disappointed by the performance of Luke Weaver last night. He had been a major reason why the Cardinals have given up the fewest runs in the division this season. But I'm banking on Martinez not letting us down here. He's off a couple of sub-standard outings, yes, but overall it's still been a strong season for the right-hander. He has a 9-5 TSR in 14 starts here at Busch w/ a 3.18 ERA and 1.104 WHIP. The Cubs got to him at Wrigley 11 days ago, but that was after Martinez had posted a 3-0 TSR in his first three starts against them this year. One of them, here at home, saw him toss 7 1/3 scoreless innings w/ 10 K's (Opening Day). He also beat tonight's counterpart, Jake Arrieta, back on 7.21. Arrieta made his return from the DL last week in Milwaukee and went five innings, allowing just one run. He only struck out two batters and had to be bailed out late by the offense though (extra inning win). Arrieta hasn't been as sharp compared to the previous two seasons this year. Now he has always seemed to have St. Louis' number, but it remains to be seen if he's the "same guy." He's thrown only 122 pitches since 8.29. Though the Cubs are well on their way to making the postseason, they've lost money in almost all setting this year. Meanwhile, St. Louis is still 42-33 at home, holding the opposition under 4.0 rpg. They need this one badly and I'll try them again. 8* St. Louis |
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09-26-17 | Reds v. Brewers -187 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
6* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Without even playing, the Brewers "won" yday in the sense that both the Rockies and Cardinals lost. Those results leave the Brew Crew now just 1.5 games back of the Rockies for the 2nd Wild Card and one full game up on the Cards in the chase. After a tough series w/ the first place Cubs over the weekend, where they dropped three of four (two in extra innings), Milwaukee couldn't have asked for a better setup to start the week. They'll remain at home and host the lowly Reds. But don't expect the Brew Crew to take these games lightly. Not only are they trying for a playoff spot, but they have revenge on their minds here after being swept in Cincy earlier this month. The Reds, however, come into this series having dropped six in a row. Zach Davies is certainly a good choice to open the series for the home team. He's faced the Reds three times this season and has a 2.30 ERA. Even in the series in which Milwaukee got swept, Davis delivered 5 2/3 innings of two run ball, one of those runs allowed being unearned. His hard-luck continued his last time out where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP against the Cubs, but that was one of the games the Brewers blew late and ended up losing. Twice in his L3 starts, Davies has "stood tall" against the Cubs, also beating them back on 9.10 by allowing just one run in 7 IP. Here, he'll be facing an offense that's scored only 22 runs during its six game slide, all of which took place at home. Given the Reds' road record this year is 27-47, I don't see them turning things around here. Price Cincy above +175 on the money line and their road record is just 2-11. The Reds have zilch to play for in the season's final week, so it should come as no shock to see them trying out a new starter in this spot. Deck McGuire makes his first big league start Tuesday night after four relief apperances. While his minor league numbers may look impressive, note that he came straight from Double-A, so this is quite the jump he's making here. He's also 28, so this is hardly a "prospect" at this point. The Reds are getting outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year, one of the worst marks in all of MLB, so I just don't see them being competitive in this spot. A lot is on the line for the Brew Crew and I think they'll take advantage. 6* Milwaukee |
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09-25-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -165 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): I'm taking the Cardinals today, but the team that they are chasing finds itself in a similar position as the Rockies return home from their own disappointing road trip (went 2-4 against the Padres and Giants). Their lead over Milwaukee is down to a precarious two games for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot, though it was just one before yday's results. I like them to preserve their edge over the Brew Crew and Cards tonight w/ a very favorable matchup against the Marlins. Miami has zero to play for in the final week of the season as Sunday's loss assured them of a sub-.500 campaign. Tonight is one year to the day that we tragically lost Jose Fernandez, but emotion alone will not be able to carry the Marlins in this one. Any discussion of the Rockies at home has to start and end with how their offense increases exponentially here at Coors Field. They lead the league (again) w/ an average of 6.0 rpg scored at home. That's a full two more runs per game than what they average on the road. I see them having little difficulty scoring tonight off Odrisamer Despaigne, whose two previous road starts have not gone well at all (8.63 ERA, 2.278 WHIP). Despaigne only became a full-fledged member of the Miami rotation late last month. He has more walks (13) than strikeouts (10) during that time, which is never a good sign. Lefties are batting .306 against him this season w/ an .834 OPS. The Marlins already allow 5.5 rpg on the road and this is simply not the venue for that number to start going down. The Rockies also have revenge here as Miami swept them last month, the lone time these two teams have met previously this season. (By the way, both of these franchises entered the league in 1993). Miami's offense just scored a ton in Arizona over the weekend (25 runs in three games), but was limited to only two on Sunday. I'm hoping Tyler Chatwood can continue his current September pace, which has seen him make four starts and not allow more than 3 ER in any of them. He has a 1.83 ERA in September and was unbeaten before a hard-luck loss in San Francisco last Wednesday (Rockies shut out). I look for Chatwood to get plenty of support tonight, however, as the Colorado offense should "wake back up" upon its return home (regardless if Nolan Arenado plays or not). A lot is on the line for them here. 8* Colorado |
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09-25-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals -122 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -122 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): It's desperation time for the Cardinals, who return home from a nine-game trip (went 4-5) down 2.5 games to Colorado in the chase for the final available playoff spot in the National League. They are also competing w/ Milwaukee, who leads them by one-half game. The Cubs come in looking to clinch the NL Central here and have made it no secret that they'd love to accomplish the feat on their rival's field. "We intend to clinch there. For a lot of the guys that have been around here for a long time, it's going to be very satisfying," said Ben Zobrist. The Cubs have certainly had the Cards' number here in 2017, going 11-4 in 15 head to head matchups, including a three-game sweep at Wrigley just over a week ago. But their second straight division pennant will have to wait as St. Louis obviously has something to play for here as well and has a sizable edge in starting pitching in this one. The Redbirds' pitching has actually been quite good this year. In fact, they've allowed fewer runs than the Cubs this season and the 4th fewest overall in the Senior Circuit (three playoff teams ahead of them). Monday starter Luke Weaver has played a significant role in that. He has a 7-1 team start record and since a somewhat shaky debut back on 7.27, he's been lights out. The Cards have won each of the last seven times he has pitched w/ him allowing 2 ER or fewer everytime. His ERA and WHIP during this time are 1.69 and 0.937. His KW ratio is 57-6! The Cubs have yet to see him to the point, which is a disadvantage for them. Over the L7 games, the Cubs offense is averaging only 3.6 rpg and they were a little lucky over the weekend in Milwaukee as two of their three wins required extra innings. The Cardinals' returning home is a big deal as they're a lot better at Busch. Note the 42-32 home record as they are limiting opponents to just 3.9 rpg here. The Cubs, off a 5-0 shutout win on Sunday, are making their final stop on a nine-game road trip that's taken them to both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. Only 3-3 off a shutout win this year, the Cubs have lost money in virtually all setting in '17, including on the road (-6.3 units). They'll have the struggling Jon Lester on the mound Monday. Lester was rocked for seven runs in just 4 1/3 IP his last time out (at Tampa Bay) and in general, has not pitched well of late. He has a 6.81 ERA and 1.766 WHIP his L7 starts. The WHIP is 1.837 in the last three and his ERA is 5.11 since the All-Star Break. The revenge-minded Cards need this one BAD. 8* St. Louis |
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09-25-17 | Nationals v. Phillies -128 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -128 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Welcome to the final week of the MLB regular season where you can find lines such as this one. Washington has already clinched the NL East and almost certainly will be matched up against the Cubs in the Division Series. That means they have little to play for the rest of the way. Of course, the same holds true for the last place Phillies, but they've actually played better than their record shows this season. Maybe it's not much of a difference but, based on run differential, they "should" have 66 wins (they have 62). They'll have their best pitcher on the mound Monday, that being Aaron Nola, and I view that as the difference in this series opener. Meanwhile, the Nats are sending out A.J. Cole to see what he's got. Big pitching mismatch for the home team here. Nola has been sharp of late and the Phillies have won each of his last two starts. The last one saw him go seven innings and allow just two runs and five hits against the the Dodgers. That was a nice win as +145 money line underdogs. That followed a showing against Miami where he allowed only one run on four hits, again in seven innings, with 11 K's. Both starts came at home. He did face the Nats earlier this month, in D.C., and pitched well there too, giving up just three runs (two earned) w/ 8 K's. But the Phils came up short in that one, 4-3. But facing them at home now is a big advantage as after those L2 starts, Nola is 9-4 in 13 starts at Citizens Bank Park this season. His ERA and WHIP are 2.98 and 1.027 respectively. Tonight will be Nola's final start of '17, so expect him to pitch well. Cole will be making just his 8th start of the year for the Nats. Six of the previous seven have come since August 2nd, but he's been used in the starter's role only sparingly of late w/ just three starts since 8.13. The last one saw him face the Dodgers and he lasted only five innings in a 3-2 loss. That was back on 9.16. I'm just not high on him here given that he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.552 WHIP overall this year. Yes, Bryce Harper has been activated for this game, but it's going to take awhile for him to come around. Normally, I might be a little leery of endorsing the Phillies in this situation, but the Nats really do have nothing to play for right now, thus I'll lean on the rather sizable starting pitching edge for the home team. 10* Philadelphia |
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09-24-17 | Rangers +106 v. A's | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
10* Texas (4:05 ET): Well, this is "it" for the Rangers. We know that it's their final chance to avoid what would be a second sweep at the hands of the division rival A's, in less than a month's time. Furthermore, after losing the last two days (1-0 last night), their Wild Card hopes are now dwindling as well. Minnesota won again yday, so that means the Rangers are 4.5 games back w/ only eight more to play. I'm still a believer in the revenge angle though and not a believer in Oakland, whose current six-game win streak happens to be their longest of the entire season. As I said yday, there's an irony here w/ this Texas team as their run differential this year (+20) is greater than last year's (+8) when they won 95 games and homefield advantage in the American League playoffs! They did still cash for me on the run line yday, but today I'll call for an "outright" win. The Rangers have scored only one run off A's pitching in two games, so that's something that clearly needs to change Sunday. Perhaps facing the struggling Jharel Cotton will help. Today's starter for the A's comes in w a 9.00 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in his L3 starts. That's obviously not good, yet the A's have still managed to win the last two times he's taken the mound, as +155 and +170 dogs against Houston and Boston respectively. But at home this year, Cotton hasn't been very good w/ a 7.66 ERA and 1.608 WHIP. These are obviously some pretty bad numbers we're talking about here. For the year, the ERA is 5.88 and the WHIP is 1.484. Like I said earlier, the current A's win streak is also the longest of the season. This is a team that has spent most of the year at the bottom of the American League standings. While I'll tip my cap for what they've done the L2 days, note the other four victories came against the Phillies and Tigers. Martin Perez just might be the right guy to have on the mound today for Texas. He comes in having gone 7-1 w/ a 3.14 ERA his L9 outings (8-1 TSR). Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits in a revenge spot against the Mariners. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six consecutive starts. Oakland is only 17-24 against southpaw starters in 2017. Bottom line is that this is a MUST win for the road team. That doesn't necessarily mean they HAVE to win, but I think they WILL. 10* Texas |
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09-22-17 | Rangers +122 v. A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Texas (10:05 ET): The Rangers have revenge here, as believe it or not, they got swept by the A's (here in Oakland) late last month. While Oakland has proven itself to be significantly better at home (than on the road), I don't see history repeating itself this go-around. Not w/ the Rangers desperately clinging to playoff hopes while the A's are simply relegated to playing out the string. Both teams enter on four-game win streaks w/ Texas sweeping Seattle and Oakland doing the same to Detroit to start the week. But all this has simply created a situation where there's now value on Texas, who has the 5th best run differential in the American League at +24. That's a better run diff than LY's team (+8) that won 95 games! Funny how regression works out sometimes, no? Though they swept Texas last month and are currently riding a four-game win streak, there's no denying that the A's have been one of the AL's worst teams in 2017. They've been outscored by 90 runs over the course of the season and have occupied last place in the West most of the year. Their 790 runs allowed are third most in all of baseball w/ only a couple of NL teams (Mets and Reds) having given up more. Kendall Graveman will toe the rubber this evening and while he's still unbeaten at home this year (4-0 in nine starts), I'm not about to start anointing him a Cy Young contender. The team is just 7-10 in his 17 starts overall this year. His last start, on 9.16 vs. Philadelphia, was cut short due to rain. Graveman was pretty fortunate to get away w/ only allowing one run when he faced the Rangers last month as he also allowed nine hits in 7 IP. His ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rangers is 4.57. Texas enters the day 2.5 games back of Minnesota for that 2nd Wild Card. Six of their remaining nine games are against the A's, which is favorable. Prior to being swept by them last month, they'd gone 6-3 head to head in the season series. It's now down to a three-team race w/ them, the Twins and Angels. LA just got swept by Cleveland and is now in Houston, so their projection isn't looking so rosy. Nick Martinez is by no means Texas' best starter (probably the worst!), but like every other member of the rotation, he's turned a profit in 2017. His 1.039 WHIP his L3 starts says that his 0-3 TSR over the same time is misleading. He allowed only three runs on four hits (7 IP) when he squared off w/ Graveman and the A's last month. Texas desperately needs the win here. 8* Texas |
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09-21-17 | Cubs -136 v. Brewers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): This is a very big series, rife w/ playoff implications. The Cubs, who "sleepwalked" through the 1st half of the season, now seem "safe" as a probable playoff entrant as they lead the division by 3.5 games and have a better record than the second place Wild Card team (Colorado). That's thanks to a seven-game win streak, which ended yday, but still the defending World Series Champs appear to be in good shape heading into what is a revenge spot vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew are attempting to chase down either the Cubs or the Rockies (1 gm back of Wild Card), but suffered their own loss yday, in walk-off fashion no less. I'm sure the Cubs remember getting swept at Wrigley by the Brewers earlier this month and they'll be eager to return the favor. Tonight's series opener marks the return of Jake Arrieta to the Cubs' rotation. The former Cy Young winner last pitched on September 4th when he tweaked his hamstring in a disastrous 12-0 loss to the Pirates. But I'm not concerned as he reportedly checked out well in a bullpen session Tuesday and has posted a 1.98 ERA since the All-Star Break. Arrieta missed the last series w/ the Brewers, but is 2-0 against them in '17, having allowed just 3 ER in 13 IP w/ 16 strikeouts. After being swept at home by Milwaukee, the Cubs rattled off those seven straight victories before Jon Lester simply "did not have it" last night and they lost 8-1 to the Rays. But even after scoring just three runs in two games at Tropicana Field, the Cubs' offense has still managed to average over 7.0 rpg since that aforementioned sweep. Zach Davies will get the nod here for Milwaukee. Though he has an 8-6 team start record here, he has not pitched particularly well at home this season as he has a 5.67 ERA and 1.588 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed six runs to Miami (in just four innings) and remember that was here at Miller Park due to Hurricane Irma. That's one of just three losses for the team in the L12 games as they've won three straight three times, only to be followed by a loss every time. Last night's loss to Pittsburgh in the final at-bat was certainly discouraging and I just don't see this as a playoff team. If anyone is to catch Colorado for that 2nd Wild Card, I think it would be St. Louis, not Milwaukee. The fact that Davies has been the Brew Crew's most profitable starter to bet on this season (+8.75 units) speaks volumes considering the mediocre 3.99 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Davies did allow only one run in seven innings when he faced the Cubs in that sweep earlier this month, but should consider himself fortunate as he allowed seven hits. The Cubs are 23-11 this season as ML road favorites of -125 to -175 (71-29 L3 seasons!) while Milwaukee is 4-7 in that same range as a home dog (19-36 L3 seasons). So this is a "favorable" price we're getting on the Cubbies here. 10* Chi Cubs |
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09-20-17 | Cardinals -157 v. Reds | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): Curiously, the Reds have given the Cardinals plenty of trouble here in 2017, winning 9 of the 17 head to head matchups. But the tide has started to turn w/ the Cards winning three of four over the last week, including a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, 8-7. Seeing as Cincy twice blew a lead last night (including 4-0 after three innings), you have to figure they also blew their best shot at winning a game in this series. It's not like the home team has much to play for here. As for the Redbirds, this series is huge as they face not only a six-game deficit in the division, but a 2.5 game one for the second NL Wild Card. Considering they'll send out a pitcher (Luke Weaver) that just shut out the Reds six days ago, you have to like their chances tonight. Weaver has been huge for the Cardinals' rotation. He made his 2017 debut back on 7.27 in Arizona. It was a bit of a rocky showing as he surrendered four runs in five innings and St. Louis lost 4-0. But since then, he's been light's out. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in six straight starts, all team wins. Three times, he hasn't even allowed a single earned run. Last time out, it was just one of the unearned variety as he allowed only two hits in 6 IP against this same opponent. We're talking about a pitcher w/ a sub-1.00 WHIP here and in his L3 starts, the ERA is 0.96. With Cincinnati batting just .222 its L7 games, I see no reason why Weaver shouldn't dominate yet again. You also have to like his 50-6 KW ratio during the six-game win streak. The Reds are simply playing out the string and have given up the most runs in all of baseball. Here they start the appropriately named Rookie Davis, who is in fact a rookie! Davis has made five starts in 2017, but none since early May. Looking at his numbers, you can see why. He posted a 7.58 ERA and 2.211 WHIP. It takes a special kind of bad to find your way out of this Reds' starting rotation, but Davis managed to do just that. After spending the summer down in Louisville (Triple A), he was recalled once that season ended. He has made one appearance out of the bullpen and "true to form," gave up two runs in two innings. There's no Billy Hamilton in the Reds lineup right now and while he's not a great hitter, he can definitely affect a game on the basepaths. I just can't see Cincinnati giving a better effort than they did last night, which means another loss is on the horizon. 8* St. Louis |
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09-20-17 | A's -116 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
10* Oakland (1:10 ET): The Detroit Tigers are a really bad baseball team right now. To be fair, they were never really "good" at any point here in 2017, but lately things have REALLY nosedived as they've dropped 15 of 19 games here in September to fall to 27 games below .500 and they have the worst run differential (-124) in the entire American League. If that's not enough, they've even dropped two straight here at home to the A's, who came in w/ the worst road record in all of baseball. Yesterday was particularly soul-crushing as Oakland was able to rally back from a four-run deficit to take the game 9-8. The A's have had no issue scoring in this series (17 runs in two games), so facing a terrible pitcher like Anibal Sanchez, you have to like them to finish off the sweep this afternoon. When handicapping the MLB card, I assign every starter a "score" as to reflect how I think they'll perform in the upcoming game. Here, Sanchez gets one of the lowest ones I've ever assigned. Sure, he has a 7-7 team start record, but his ERA and WHIP are 6.42 and 1.515 respectively. Lately, things have only gotten worse as in his L3 starts, those numbers are 7.59 and 1.968. Despite that, the Tigers have managed to win two of those three games, which is a major reason I'm looking to play against here. Any kind of sustained success w/ a pitcher of this caliber on the mound should be considered fortunate at best. Now, his last time out saw Sanchez give up only one run in 6 IP w/ a season-best 11 K's. But that was against the White Sox. It was also his best start of the entire year and thus is (highly) unlikely to be duplicated here. Oakland, meanwhile, has a red hot pitcher going today. Daniel Mengden has a 2.75 ERA and 0.864 WHIP his L3 starts, all team wins. He is coming off a CG, two-hit shutout at Philadelphia last Friday. The A's may not be a good road team, but they actually own a winning record in day games this season. Their lineup should continue to take advantage of a Tigers' pitching staff that allows 5.5 runs per game at home this season. One hitter in particular to watch is rookie Matt Olson, who has homered in five consecutive games. Take it from me; Sanchez is very bad and must be played against here. 10* Oakland |
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09-19-17 | Indians v. Angels -108 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Cleveland has now won 24 of its last 25 games, an incredible achievement that has them a top the American League standings and currently listed as the favorite to win the World Series. Impressive as this stretch of baseball has been (and make no mistake about it, the Tribe have been very impressive), let's note that they've been beating up on a trio of bad teams - Kansas City, Chicago and Detroit - a lot during the streak. Those three teams have accounted for 17 of those 24 wins. They've faced just one playoff probable during the 24-1 run, that being the Yankees, who they did sweep (in NY). But now they are set to hit the West Coast for the next six games and I see a prime fade opportunity here against the Angels. There have been a couple of key indicators w/ the line that have confirmed my suspicion. The Angels enter Tuesday 1.5 games back of the Twins, who lost yday, for the 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League. Like the Indians, they've mostly been beating up on lesser opponents since the All-Star Break, but were swept in Cleveland back in late July. That makes this is a revenge spot. Starting tonight will be Tyler Skaggs, who has mediocre numbers in seven starts, but happens to also be coming off an absolute gem. In perhaps his strongest outing of the entire season, Skaggs tossed seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball against Houston, here at home last Wednesday. Skaggs did not face Cleveland in the previous series as he was still on the D.L. It should be noted that while they've continued to win, the Indians' offense has been held to three runs or fewer in four of their past six games. Mike Clevinger goes tonight for Cleveland. Playing against the likes of Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco is unwise right now, so a Clevinger start offers a rare spot to fade this red-hot ballclub. Isn't it telling that the Tribe, despite what they've done this month, come in as slight underdogs on the ML? Sure enough, Clevinger's worst start of the year came against the Angels as he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings. The offense bailed him out in an 11-7 win, but still we at least know the Halos are capable of getting to him. It would be unfair to label Clevinger the "weak link" in the Indians' rotation, but there's a good shot he won't be starting much in the playoffs. He's currently in the best stretch of his career (6-0 TSR L6 starts), but that's due to end. Cleveland is also probably "due" to start giving some back at the pay window as well. 10* LA Angels |
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09-19-17 | White Sox v. Astros -215 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
6* Houston (8:10 ET): Believe it or not, the White Sox actually swept the Astros the last time they faced off, which was last month. Since the All-Star Break, the AL West leaders have been mediocre at best (31-29 overall), potentially costing themselves homefield advantage (Cleveland has passed them). But, things appeared to have "turned a corner" recently w/ Houston winning four straight coming into this week's rematch. They swept Seattle over the weekend, doing so in fairly dominant fashion. As for the White Sox, they have the worst overall record in the American League (60-89) even after winning six of nine (lost 12-0 on Sunday). They've been relegated to "playing out the string" and I don't see them beating the Astros this time now that they have to travel to Minute Maid Park. It's a high price on the favorite, but certainly justified. Over the L3 seasons, Houston is 41-12 when priced on the money line between -175 and -250 and at home. So history says this should be an easy one. Trailing the Indians by 1.5 games in the race for best record in the American League, this is a series the Astros probably need to sweep (Cleveland is in LA to face the Angels). They'd hoped Lance McCullers would be ready to start Monday's opener, but his arm fatigue issues have persisted, thus it will be Colin McHugh going instead. That's fine by me as McHugh has a 0.53 ERA in three home starts so far. He was rocked for seven runs (in 5 1/3 IP) the last series against Chicago, but since then has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all five starts, albeit not always going deep into games. But still, the White Sox are not a good road team (26-49 overall) and are in the bottom 10 in both runs scored and OBP. Sunday saw them come within one out of being no-hit by the Tigers' Matthew Boyd. The White Sox are just 2-5 after being shut out this year and 5-9 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. They're only 5-11 when taking the field after an off-day. So the trends don't favor them here nor do the odds. Can starter Lucas Giolito alone stem the tide? I think not. Giolito has pitched well in limited duty (five starts), but has also benefited from facing some of the game's worst offensive teams to this point. Houston happens to rank #1 in all of baseball in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging! This won't be a fun time for the young starter as the Astros are also 72-36 this year when facing a right-handed starter. 6* Houston |
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09-18-17 | Red Sox +100 v. Orioles | Top | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): I realize that Baltimore is returning home here (where they are significantly better), but it's "all over but the shouting" here after a 2-8 trip that's left them four games below .500 and most importantly 5.5 games back of the Wild Card. A -60 YTD run differential pretty much confirms this is NOT a legit playoff contender. Furthermore, their 44-30 home record is a little misleading in the sense that they allow the same number of runs per game (4.9) as they score. Boston comes in still atop the AL East (three-game lead over the Yankees) and had a three-game losing streak snapped Sunday w/ a 3-2 loss to Tampa Bay. What puts them "over the hump" as a play for me today is they come in w/ revenge as the O's actually swept them at Fenway last month. That won't happen again. Doug Fister is off a rare poor outing for Boston as he gave up six runs in 4 IP last Wednesday against Oakland. That's more runs allowed than in his previous four starts combined! He comes in w/ a very nice 0.932 WHIP on the road this season, albeit that's only in four starts. Still though, Fister has proven himself to be very reliable as six of his last eight starts have been quality ones. That includes him allowing just two runs on five hits to Baltimore back on 8.27, a start that ended up as a 2-1 loss for the Red Sox. Another big key here is the Red Sox have shown themselves to be an excellent bounce-back team as their record off a loss is 41-23 this year. Offensively, they are top 10 in runs scored, batting average and OBP. Baltimore just isn't good enough on the runs allowed side of the ledger to realistically contend. They are 27th in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average and are tied for 26th in quality starts. Dylan Bundy has arguably been their best starter in 2017 and will go Monday. Like Fister, he's pitched well of late, save for one start. (Bundy's bad one came here at home, two starts ago, vs. the Yankees). This will actually be Bundy's fifth time facing the Red Sox in 2017. So far, he's had mixed results (2-2 TSR) even though he's never allowed more than 2 ER (surprising). But the Red Sox hitters should definitely be familiar w/ him at this point and don't be surprised when they hit a couple of home runs tonight, something that has hurt Bundy at times this year. Eight different times, Bundy has allowed multiple home runs. For the sake of comparison, that's happened to Fister only ONE time this season and it was in his third start. 10* Boston |
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09-18-17 | Twins v. Yankees -163 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): As it stands now, this would be your American League Wild Card Game. In a one-game playoff, I'd figure the Yankees would be bigger favorites on the money line than they are here. There's just no two ways around it; they are a superior ballclub compared to the Twins in virtually every conceivable way. While Minnesota has barely outscored its opponents this year (+9), the Yanks hold the second best run differential in all of MLB at +174, trailing only the Indians (+227)! There was some overnight line movement that triggered this play as well as the ML went up despite the majorty of tickets coming in on the underdog. That tells me smart money likes the home team here and so do I. Minnesota's transformation from a 100+ loss team last year to a playoff contender in '17 is pretty shocking. Their competition for the last playoff spot is dropping like flies as it seems it will come down to them and the Angels. They beat Toronto yday 13-7 and will have their top pitcher on the mound Monday, that being Ervin Santana. That all sounds nice, but Santana has not fared well in his career vs. the Yankees. He has a 5.78 ERA in 19 starts, though none of them have come this year. The problems have really come here in the Bronx and don't figure to subside here as the pinstripe-clad lineup he'll face tonight is among the best in baseball. Against Baltimore over the weekend, the Yankees scored 34 runs (in four games) and slugged 12 home runs. They are now 2nd in MLB in runs scored and also in the top eight in batting average, OBP and slugging. Minnesota has swung the bats well recently too; tying a franchise record w/ at least one HR in 16 consecutive contests. But they're up against a team that's tied for the best home run differential in all of baseball. The Yankees score 5.6 rpg here at home, tied for third most in all of baseball and obviously Colorado is one of the two teams ahead of them. Looking at the other side of the ledger, the Yankees are doing well too as they are top five in ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average. Jaime Garcia will toe the rubber tonight. He's actually winless in six starts since coming over to the team, but that's a little misleading as he's given up 3 ER or fewer five straight times and the Yankees have won three of those games (one loss to Cleveland). The Yanks had won seven of eight prior to Sunday's loss to Baltimore and I don't see them slowing down in this series. 8* NY Yankees |
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09-17-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): Don't tell the Nationals that the Dodgers are having an awful September as LA has come to the Nation's Capital and taken the first two of a three-game set between division leaders. After infamously losing 15 of 16 games, Dodger Blue has now won four straight and thanks to what they've done in this series, it's looking more and more like the will end up w/ home field advantage in the National League playoff draw. As for Washington, their destiny is likely the 2nd seed as they've already wrapped up the East. It should be noted that the Dodgers have lucked out somewhat to this point in the series as they've avoided both Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg, the Nats' two best pitchers. That changes tonight, however, as they face the latter. Strasburg has been the definition of lights out recently. Well, that's putting things midly. For four consecutive starts he has not allowed a single run. His scoreless streak currently stands at 34 innings. Perhaps the most impressive thing regarding Strasburg this season has been him not giving up many home runs. In 156 2/3 IP this year, he's allowed only 13, none in the last four starts. That's the fewest in all of baseball. Last time out, he was able to hold Rhys Hoskins w/o a long ball, the only time in a six-game stretch the Phillies' rookie didn't homer. The Dodgers lineup has fared no better against Strasburg in the past, owning a collective .183 (22 for 120) batting average when facing him. In six career starts vs. LA, Strasburg has a 2.82 ERA, having allowed 2 ER or fewer five times. Earlier this year, he held them to two runs (one earned) in a hard-luck 2-1 loss opposite Clayton Kershaw. It won't be Kershaw pitching here for the Dodgers though. Instead it will Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu's recent numbers are skewed by one bad outing at Arizona on 8.30 when he allowed six runs in four innings. He has not pitched since 9.5 as his spot in the rotation wa simply skipped. That doesn't speak too well to the team's confidence in him. Ryu is just 5-7 in 21 starts this year (11-10 TSR), so he really hasn't shared in the team's overwhelming success. Earlier this year, Ryu lost his first and only career start against the Nationals. Bottom line is that w/ Strasburg pitching, this is an incredible price on the Nats at home, especially considering they're looking to avoid being swept. Strasburg gets the job done yet again. 10* Washington |
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09-14-17 | Blue Jays v. Twins -158 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): As you may have read elsewhere, the idea of the Twins going from an 100+ loss season (were 59-103 in '16) to the playoffs now has to be taken as a real possibility. Thanks in large part to Monday's 16-0 win over the Padres, Minny now has a positive run differential (something they couldn't claim much of the year), thereby justifying their 76-69 record that has them currently in position to nab the American League's 2nd Wild Card berth. They stayed two games up on the Angels by beating the Padres again last night, albeit in much closer fashion (3-1 in 10 innings). Now they'll welcome in the last place Blue Jays and like the last series, the oddsmakers don't seem to be giving the Twins their proper respect. Going into yday, Toronto was thinking sweep as they had beaten Baltimore each of the previous two days. But both wins were of the one-run variety and Tuesday's required a two-run rally in the ninth. Therefore, I wasn't too surprised to see the Blue Jays fail in their effort to sweep the O's as they lost 2-1 last night. The Jays are out of contention and starting Brett Anderson on the road tonight, so I have little faith in them, especially considering the way the offense has failed to produce lately. Anderson has a 5.90 ERA and 1.613 WHIP in nine starts and must deal w/ a Twins lineup that leads all of MLB in home runs since August 8th. The Jays are also just 29-42 on the road this year and 14-33 L47 as a +125 to +175 road dog. From the Twins perspective, I really like tonight's pitching matchup as they'll go w/ Jose Berrios, who has been their 2nd best starter (behind Santana) this year. Berrios allowed just two runs in 7 IP his last time out, though the team still lost 5-2 at Kansas City. I expect a much better end result here, needless to say. Berrios did not face Toronto when these teams met late last month, but based on that series, he should expect plenty of support tonight. Minnesota hitters hammered Toronto pitching to the tune of 22 runs in three games and their only loss was a 10-9 affair. Berrios has been lights out at Target Field this year, taking a 2.54 ERA and 0.878 WHIP (nice!) into this game. So it should not be a surprise then to find his TSR at home is 8-1. Make it 9-1 after tonight. 10* Minnesota |
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09-14-17 | A's v. Red Sox -200 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
6* Boston (1:35 ET): Oakland has won six of seven, including last night, so now would seem like an opportune time to fade. I've played against them both games in this series so far and while last night obviously didn't go as I'd planned, the bottom line is the A's are a MLB-worst 22-48 on the road this year, getting outscored by 1.6 rpg. A big four-run 1st inning was the difference last night, but that's something that cannot be counted on a daily basis. Even w/ the win yday, the A's are still only 2-7 in 2017 when pushed beyond +175 on the money line on the road and they're 8-22 in that role the L3 seasons. Conversely, the Red Sox are 14-3 this season as ML home faves of -175 to -250 and 41-12 in that range the L3 seasons. Expect a rout on Getaway Day at Fenway. Drew Pomeranz is having a career year for Boston due in large part to his success here at Fenway. Going back to June 16th, Pomeranz is 9-1 w/ a 2.16 ERA (16 starts, 12-4 TSR) and all year he's been particularly dominant at home, going 8-2 w/ a 3.24 ERA in 14 starts (11-3 TSR). He's actually the last pitcher to beat Cleveland as on 8.23 Pomeranz outdueled Corey Kluber and took home the cash as a +165 dog on the ML. Last time out, he was a slight favorite against Chris Archer and Tampa Bay and delivered six strong innings. He allowed two runs on two hits while striking out seven. The Rays didn't score off him until the fifth. Considering that as a team, Oakland is batting just .236 on the road this year, I expect a quality start here from Pomeranz. The A's will be going w/ a rookie in this spot, Daniel Gossett. Despite a strong effort his last time out, Gossett still has a 5.02 ERA and 1.526 WHIP this year (14 starts) to go along w/ a 5-9 TSR. He's backed by a bullpen whose numbers are no better when away from home (5.76 ERA, 1.49 WHIP). In fact, the bullpen is another big edge for Boston here. Gossett did allow just one run on five hits Saturday against Houston (A's won 11-1!), but I'm not anticipating a repeat as the offense is due to slow down now that the team has hit the road. Both of these clubs came into yday having won five of six. The A's may have won yday, but the Red Sox are clearly the better team and many times you get a poor effort from the road team on Getaway Day. 6* Boston |
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09-13-17 | Astros v. Angels -114 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Please note that this play stands despite Houston changing pitchers, from Lance McCullers Jr to Michael Fiers. However, because of the change, it is likely we will no longer be able to grab the Angels at +1.5 (they are now ML favorites), so the play is now on them to win straight up. Last night, I cashed the Halos on the run line in a 1-0 loss. The Astros scored the game's lone run in the 2nd inning and then Justin Verlander took it from there, allowing just one hit over eight innings. While not a killer, the loss certainly hurt the Angels as they're now two games back of the Twins (who won 16-0 yday!) for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Twins losing tonight to San Diego seems unlikely, so the home team really does need a win in the worst way here. I'll bank on that happening. This series marks a return home for the Angels, who were coming off a nine-game road trip, all against division opponents. They went just 4-5 w/ six of the nine contests decided either by one run or in extra innings. Last night marked another one-run loss as the team has now played 45 one-run games this year, second most in the A.L. Tonight, they turn to Tyler Skaggs to right the ship. I gave Skaggs a significant edge over McCullers and it's interesting to note that the oddsmakers preferred McCullers to Fiers. That probably has something to do w/ the fact Fiers has allowed a total of 14 ER his L2 starts, ugly outings that both took place at home. Last time out, the offense bailed Fiers out in an 8-6 win over the sorry Mets, thereby preventing what would have been an embarrassing loss as -255 money line favorites. Though they won yday, the Astros are by no means "out of the woods" yet. This has been a sub-.500 team since the All-Star Break and they were swept by last place Oakland over the weekend. Skaggs had endured his own rough patch before tossing a quality start his last time out. The Angels may have still lost (3-1 at Oakland), but it was nice to see the pitcher go six innings and allow just three runs w/ 9 K's (tied season-high). Skaggs did start in an Angels win over the Astros here at home back in August. Among division foes, Skaggs' ERA against Houston in the lowest. Meanwhile, Fiers' career ERA vs. LA is just 4.44 in seven starts. Houston has a losing record against left-handed starters this year and has manged only four runs in the last three games (.211 batting average L7 games). 10* LA Angels |
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09-13-17 | A's v. Red Sox -187 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -187 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
6* Boston (7:10 ET): In yday's analysis, I discussed the idea of fading bad teams at their "apex," or more succinctly stated "choosing the right time to play against these known losers." Well, in the case of the A's, we did just that. Tuesday saw them fall 11-1 here in Boston as a powerful trend continued. Oakland was off a four-game sweep of Houston over the weekend, but as noted here yday, every time the A's have swept a series this year, they've gone out and lost the opener of the next series. Also discussed was the stark home vs. road splits for the AL West cellar dwellers. While competitive at the O.co Coliseum (42-33), they are borderline horrendous on the road as not only do they have a 21-48 record (MLB worst), but they're getting outscored by 1.6 rpg (also MLB worst). Add in the fact they are 1-7 this season when pushed above +175 on the ML (on the road) and I see no reason why they aren't likely to be buried again here at Fenway Park. The Red Sox now have a four-game lead over the Yankees (who lost yday) in the AL East. Whether or not they lock up the division, this is going to be a playoff team regardless as it is clearly one of the four top teams in the American League. Not that they necessarily needed it, but Boston has what looks to be a sizable advantage in starting pitching for Wednesday. Doug Fister has a 1.71 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his L3 starts, all of them quality, as he's given up just four runs on 13 hits in 21 IP. Since David Price went down, Fister has picked up the slack w/ a 2.79 ERA and 0.993 WHIP, so the run of excellence is actually more sustained than just the last three starts. While he's gotten off to some shaky starts of late (all 4 runs allowed in the L3 starts have come in the 1st inning), Fister has held opposing hitters to an .072 batting average (6 for 83!) from the second inning on. He also has a 2.88 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Oakland. While recent form has clearly been better than the overall season numbers for Fister, there's nothing in terms of recent or overall form to suggest Oakland starter Jharel Cotton will outduel him here. Cotton has allowed 3 HR's in B2B starts, a terrible sign when getting set to face this Boston lineup. Despite allowing 7 runs in 5 innings, he was bailed out by the offense last time out, but I wouldn't look for that to happen again. In six of his last eight starts, Cotton has given up at least four runs while not making it past the sixth inning. For the season, he now has a 5.90 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts. Getting back to the price range, the Red Sox are 14-2 this year when priced between -175 and -250 at home and 41-11 in that same range the last three seasons. 6* Boston |
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09-12-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals have won seven of eight (swept Pittsburgh over the weekend, which has them only two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and 3.5 back of the Rockies for the second Wild Card. They now own their division's best run differential (+74), but all of this will be for naught if they can't take care of business this week at home against the hapless Reds. Somewhat shockingly, the Redbirds are only 5-8 against this particular division rival here in 2017 and that's clearly cost them. But w/ nothing but division games the rest of the way, including two series w/ Cincinnati, the Cards clearly control their own destiny and I see them starting this three-game set with a dominant win behind Lance Lynn, who is well overdue for a victory. Lynn has an 0-5 TSR his L5 starts, but that's grossly unfair. Four of the five starts have been quality ones w/ him allowing 2 ER or fewer and he has a 1.29 ERA/1.095 WHIP in the last three. In fact, Lynn has actually been one of the National League's best pitchers in 2017. In addition to ranking in the top 10 in both ERA and WHIP, he's allowed the third fewest walks and opponents are batting only .213 off him, one of the 10 lowest averages in all of MLB! Lynn is 10-4 w/ a 3.06 ERA in 20 career appearances vs. the Reds, 17 of them starts. St. Louis pitching has been awesome of late, holding opponents to just 1.7 rpg over the last week and a .217 BA. The Reds may have scored 10 runs in Sunday's win over the Mets, but that was only after totaling four in the previous three games. Reds starter Robert Stephenson has the opposite TSR of Lynn (5-0!) his L5 starts, but despite the disparate records, Lynn is clearly the superior pitcher in this matchup. Stephenson has posted a 1.585 WHIP his L3 outings, a sign that he's been lucky and had control issues. He was able to overcome five walks his last time out, but tonight marks the 1st time in nearly a month he's had to start on the road where the Reds are just 26-45 for the year, including 2-10 as a ML dog of +175 or higher (13-38 L3 seasons). So, the superior team has the edge in starting pitching tonight and is playing at home where they've gone 49-22 as a ML favorite of -175 or higher the L3 seasons. 8* St. Louis |
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09-12-17 | A's v. Red Sox -166 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:10 ET): Oakland comes into Beantown fresh off a sweep another first place team (Houston), but that took place at home. As discussed here many times over, the A's can be a competitive bunch in their home park (42-33 record!), but it's a far different story on the road where they are baseball's worst at 21-47 (outscored by 1.5 rpg). Case in point, back in May we saw them take three of four from the Red Sox at O.co Coliseum. Expect things to go much differently this week at Fenway Park where the home team had won four in a row before losing Sunday. Boston has the Yankees hot on their heels in the AL East, so this is a series they'd certainly like to sweep. Tonight things look good as not only are they 14-2 as a home fave of -175 to -250 this season; they are 41-11 in that range the L3 seasons! Oakland dominated Houston, winning the last three games by a combined score of 32-7. Sometimes, the key to playing against these also-ran teams is to properly identify when they are at their peak and then fade accordingly. I think we're at that point with the A's right now. Their current five-game win streak matches a season-high, previously set back in April when they took five in a row from the Mariners and Rangers, all at home. Following that win streak, they would hit the road and were promptly swept by the Angels. At no point this season have the A's followed a series sweep w/ another victory! They hope Sean Manaea can reverse that trend tonight, but I don't see it happening as Manaea was destroyed in his only previous start at Fenway (allowed 8 runs in 2 2/3 IP!). Only half of his 26 starts this season have been quality and in his L7 starts overall he has a 6.23 ERA and 1.912 WHIP. True to his team's form, Manaea's TSR on the road is just 5-8. It's been awhile since Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been able to record a winning decision. His last one came all the way back in May, but that's very misleading as he's off a strong start (allowed only 2 ER in 6 IP) against Toronto, a game the Red Sox won 3-2. Rodriguez was a -190 favorite on the ML there, so by comparison this price certainly looks like a bargain. It's a weaker opponent, one that has been one of the AL's bottom two teams basically all season long. For whatever reason, Tuesday has been a good day for Boston this year as they are 18-2 in games played on the second day of the week. Oakland is just 15-32 the L3 seasons when playing w/ a day off including 5-11 this season. 8* Boston |
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09-10-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -183 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
6* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): It's difficult to refer to September as the "fall" of the Dodgers, simply because they haven't really lost anything tangible. Sure, they've gone from #1 to #2 in run differential (Cleveland), but they're still in first place in the NL West (by 10 games) and still hold the keys to home field advantage throughout the playoffs. In many ways, this stunning stretch of losing (1-14 L15, nine straight) only puts in perspective how "other-worldly" the team had performed much of the season. Consider that their previous 14 losses took place over a 72-game span! They remain 52-22 at home, so the idea of them suffering a four-game sweep here at Chavez Ravine would mark a new nadir. That's what Dodger Blue is up against Sunday and I think they avoid the fate. Colorado has greatly improved its own playoff chances by coming in and taking the first three games of this series. They won the opener 9-1 against Clayton Kershaw as +255 ML underdogs. Since then, it's been a pair of one-run victories, each coming at higher than +200 on the ML. This is now the longest road win streak for the Rockies (5 games) since early June. They came into the series sporting a losing record away from Coors Field and as per usual, that can be pinned on offensive decline as they average just 4.3 rpg. That ranks them 25th in all of MLB in runs scored per game on the road. The only teams below them are those well out of playoff contention. So that's something to consider moving forward. As for the pitching side of the ledger, Sunday starter Tyler Chatwood comes in sporting an ugly 11.43 ERA and 2.194 WHIP his L3 starts. Admittedly, there's been roughly a month in between each of them (as he's worked out of the bullpen most of the 2nd half), but still ... expect him to be on a tight pitch count, thereby "exposing" the Rockies' somewhat shaky bullpen. This is the longest home losing streak for the Dodgers (8 games) in 30 years. It's their longest overall losing skid since 1992. They've lost five consecutive series for the first time since '07. While they were certainly due for a "market correction," this has gone above and beyond that. Rich Hill starts today and despite an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts, he sports an outstanding 0.696 WHIP during that time. His last start saw the Dodgers lose 13-0, but Hill allowed only two runs in 6 IP. His previous home start before that was one of the more hard-luck decisions in recent memory as he took a no-hit bit into the ninth, yet came away w/ a 1-0 loss (in 10 innings) to Pittsburgh. Hill and the Dodgers will redeem themselves Sunday. 6* LA Dodgers |
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09-08-17 | Angels v. Mariners -121 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
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09-08-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals -169 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I played against the Cardinals yday, but will jump right back on them today. I don't think yday's shutout loss was all that damning, though it does leave them three games back of the Rockies in the Wild Card chase as well as five back of the Cubs in the NL Central. The Redbirds did take the first three games in San Diego and now find themselves back at home w/ a hot pitcher starting. They're also 3-1 this year coming off a shutout loss. As for the Pirates, well, it's all over but the shouting for them. They did split four games w/ the Cubs to start the week, but they lost the last two (8-2 yday) and they're way back in the playoff hunt. This series could very well "end" the Bucs' season while at the same time elevating the Cards to right where they need to be. I'm on the home team in tonight's series opener. Luke Weaver will toe the rubber here for St. Louis. He officially joined the rotation in late July and his first start wasn't all that impressive as it saw him allow four runs in five innings and the Cards lost 4-0 to the D'backs. Since then, however, Weaver has been totally lights out. He has a 37-6 KW ratio his L4 starts, all Cardinals victories, and has allowed only 6 ER in 26 IP. Admittedly, he hasn't faced a lot of great offenses during this stretch, but it's not as if Pittsburgh comes in hitting the cover off the baseball either. The Pirates rank tied for 26th in runs scored, are 27th in team batting average and 29th in slugging. On the road is where things tend to grow quite dire as they are batting just .239 for the year. They scored just three runs the past two days (at home) and are 28-40 on the road overall. St. Louis has some of the best pitching in the National League and to counter, Pittsburgh will send Trevor Williams to the hill. Williams actually has a 0.90 ERA his L3 starts, but a 1.400 WHIP over the same time makes you question just how good he's been. Having allowed 21 hits in 20 IP w/ eight walks is not a recipe for success, yet that's what Williams is doing. Last time out, he got through seven scoreless innings despite giving up eight hits. He was also facing the sorry Reds. This will be his third time starting against the Cardinals since the All-Star Break. The previous two both were at home and he allowed 17 hits in 8 2/3 IP, not to mention three home runs the last time he faced them. The Cards are the much better ballclub here and simply aren't being adequately priced. 8* St. Louis |
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09-08-17 | Yankees -156 v. Rangers | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -156 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (8:05 ET): The Yankees finished up their series w/ Baltimore a day later than expected (Wednesday rainout), but it proved to be "worth the wait" as they rolled to a 9-1 win yday. They are seemingly in comfortable position as far as the playoffs go, currently holding the top Wild Card spot. But they also are chasing the Red Sox in the AL East (3.5 gms back) and have a vastly superior YTD run differential (+147 vs. +81) compared to their rival. To me, this is pretty clearly one of the best teams in baseball. Tonight, they start a new series in Texas where the Rangers are desperately trying to hunt down the 2nd Wild Card spot in the American League. Despite outscoring their opponents by 42 runs this year, the Rangers are just one game over .500. That's a stark contrast to LY when they won 95 games (most in AL!), but had a run diff of only +8. Texas is 2.5 gms back of Minnesota for that 2nd WC. They were off yday after splitting a doubleheader w/ Atlanta on Wednesday. We have a battle of hot starting pitchers in tonight's series opener, but in the case of the Rangers, that really surprises me. Martin Perez does not grade out well at all, so the fact he has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts is downright shocking. He has a 2.25 ERA his last three, but a 1.400 WHIP over the same time indicates he's been pretty fortunate to still come out on the winning end. That stretch doesn't even include when Perez allowed six runs to the White Sox, in what ended up being a 17-7 Rangers' victory. For the year, Perez still sports a 4.82 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. He has a 12.86 ERA in two career starts vs. the Yankees. Bottom line is I would not trust Perez here or moving forward. The Yankees lineup is back at full strength and has scored 22 runs in the last three games. So they should have no problem getting to Perez. As for neutralizing the Rangers, Masahiro Tanaka comes into tonight in fine form. Like Perez, he is 3-0 his L3 starts and the ERA is similar (2.15). But WHIP tells a much different story as Tanaka's is 0.952 while Perez's is 1.400. Yes, the season-long numbers for the two pitchers remain somewhat similar. But Tanaka has allowed 3 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts, five of those seeing him go at least six innings. While he's been backed by plenty of run support during that time, he hasn't really needed it. Beware that even though the Yanks have a losing road record this season, they are actually +0.8 rpg in those contests. Texas is just 1-4 this season as a ML home dog in the +125 to +175 range. 8* NY Yankees |
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09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -166 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -166 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The slide continues in Los Angeles as the Dodgers have now lost 10 of 11 following last night's 3-1 loss (in 10 innings) to Arizona. Consider that the one win during this stretch was w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound against sorry San Diego. Other than that, it's been all losses, including five of them to Arizona. Thus, it's no surprise that the Diamondbacks' hottest stretch of 2017 has coincided w/ the Dodgers decline. The D'backs have now won 12 straight and are comfortably ahead in the NL Wild Card race. But I'm still sticking with the home team here. While I called Monday (lost 13-0!) the official "nadir" of their season, yday was their fifth loss in a row, which ties a season-high (set before Kershaw started against SD). I cannot see the Dodgers being swept for a second time in as many weeks by the D'backs, at Chavez Ravine no less. Though they've lost each of the last two days, the prices we're getting on the Dodgers in this series are pretty remarkable. Yes, they had to face Zack Greinke yday. But still, this is a team that's gone 52-18 at Chavez Ravine this year. The Dodgers were probably long overdue to start "giving some back," but we're hardly even a week removed from talk that this team would set the single season wins record. They allow only 3.2 rpg at home w/ opposing hitters batting a collective .212 here. Kenta Maeda gets the nod for Wednesday as he hopes for far better results than what we saw from him in Arizona last week. He allowed seven runs in three innings, but as I've mentioned before, Arizona's offense production goes way down on the road. Case in point, while Maeda has now been roughed up twice at Chase Field this year, the Dodgers did win (8-4) the lone time he faced them here at home. Maeda has a 9-1 team start record at Dodger Stadium this year w/ a 3.12 ERA and 1.006 WHIP. He'll need to be on par w/ those numbers tonight if he hopes to outduel Taijuan Walker, who has been lights out for the D'backs of late. In his L3 starts, Walker's ERA is 0.54! That includes five shutout innings of three-hit ball (w/ 10 K's!) at Coors Field his last time out. But let's be sure to note that he'd allowed 5 ER in B2B starts before these last three. As good as Walker and Arizona have been lately (haven't trailed in 98 innings!), you have to think they may have peaked. The Dodgers, still 27-17 off a loss this year, are too good to be swept at home. 10* LA Dodgers |
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09-06-17 | Angels v. A's +116 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 116 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the A's at +1.5. I cashed them on the RL yday, but it was an 8-7 loss, meaning that the revenge factor is still in play here. Last week, the A's were swept by the Angels down in Anaheim and they are facing a repeat of that if they were to lose again today. Though these AL West rivals are seemingly headed in very opposite directions right now, I'll still back the home team as they've outhit the Angels in the series and LA continues to give up a LOT of runs (45 in the L6 games!). The Angels have also played more one-run games (43) than any other team in the American League. They've lost eight straight, but again, Oakland does no worse than a one-run loss here. It's not as if the A's haven't been competitive in the first two games of this series. Certainly, they've played a lot better than they did in last week's series in Anaheim. Of course, that's not surprising when you consider the team is a respectable 37-33 at home compared to 21-47 on the road. Both games in this series have gone to extra innings. Oakland initally took a 4-0 lead in Monday's opener, but could not hold on and lost 11-9 in 11 innings. That's despite the fact they had a 16-13 edge in hits and made the Angels burn through an AL record 12 pitchers in one game. Last night saw the A's again finish w/ the edge in hits (13-9), but it still wasn't enough in a 10-inning loss. Eventually, this has to catch up w/ the Angels though. Their last five games have lasted more than 21 hours and the bullpen has been heavily taxed during that stretch. With last night's win, the Angels moved ahead of the Twins for the AL's second Wild Card by one-half game. This insane race features seven teams separated only 2.5 games. Regular followers of mine know that I'm not at all surprised by the Angels' ascension, as I called for it several weeks ago. But I remain highly skeptical of their ability to win by any kind of margin w/ the current state of the pitching staff. Today, Tyler Skaggs gets the starting nod. He comes in w/ a 9.49 ERA and 1.703 WHIP his L3 starts. Oakland did not have the luxury of facing him in last week's series at Anaheim, which is too bad because Skaggs is 0-3 w/ a 6.75 ERA all-time vs. the A's including a pair of losses here in '17. Oakland counters here w/ Sean Manaea, who has pitched much better of late following an awful start to August. Last time out, he allowed just three runs in 6 2/3 IP. It ended up being a 3-2 loss at Seattle, but that result would work for us here thanks to the RL. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) |
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09-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:10 ET): The Dodgers were long overdue to "give a little back," but safe to say no one foresaw what happened to them on the recently completed road trip where they finished 1-6 w/ three straight losses to the lowly Padres! That road trip began w/ them getting swept in Arizona and now they return home a hungry and revenge-minded team. All things considered, this is an incredible price on team that's gone a ridiculous 52-16 at home this season and has a pitcher the caliber of Rich Hill on the bump. Yes, Arizona is the National League's hottest team right now (won 10 straight!), but I don't see them having the same kind of success here at Chavez Ravine that they did at Chase Field last week. After all, the D'backs are a losing proposition away from home. Hill has had a fantastic year for the Dodgers, just like most members of the starting rotation. He was roughed up for six runs last week in Arizona, but that came on the heels of one of the most hard luck decisions in recent memory, a game where Hill didn't allow a single hit for nine innings, yet lost 1-0 at Pittsburgh (10-0 KW ratio). Last time out snapped a stretch of Hill allowing three runs or fewer in 11 consecutive starts. Strangely, his TSR at home is only 6-4. But it's no secret that the Dodgers are #1 "with a bullet" when it comes to run suppression at home, allowing just 3.1 rpg here w/ opponents batting .211! Again, the Dodgers are 52-16 in this ballpark this season. Prior to getting swept by Arizona last week, the team had not lost more than three in a row all year! Arizona counters with one of their top arms, Robbie Ray, who has been extra sharp of late. He had 10 K's in a win over the Dodgers last week where he allowed just one run and four hits in 6 2/3 IP. With the sweep in Colorado over the weekend, the D'backs very much solidified the likelihood that they will be the top Wild Card in the National League. But now it's time for them to give a little back as I cannot remember the last time the Dodgers were priced this low on the money line at home. 10* LA Dodgers |
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09-04-17 | Yankees v. Orioles -126 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (2:05 ET): The Yankees have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after taking three of four from Boston over the weekend. They even slammed Chris Sale last night in a 9-2 victory that now has them 3.5 gms back of the first place Red Sox. But today marks an excellent opportunity to fade the team wearing pinstripes as not only are they on the road immediately following Sunday Night Baseball, but it's day game to boot and they will be facing a very hot pitcher. Baltimore has its own Wild Card aspirations and Monday starter Dylan Bundy has a 7-0 TSR his L7 starts w/ a 0.951 WHIP. The O's, who have won 9 of 11 overall, are a much stronger club at Camden Yards and they have revenge here for a sweep at the hands of the Yankees (in NY) where they were outscored 38-8 (two months ago). The Orioles had won seven in a row before splitting a four-game series w/ Toronto over the weekend. That result had to be considered a little disappointing in that they're 43-28 at home (compared to just 27-39 on the road). But today's price range certainly seems to suit them well as they are 18-8 this season as a home fave between -125 and -175, not to mention 60-31 in that same range the L3 seasons. They enter play Monday just 1.5 gms back of Minnesota for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. Having Bundy on the mound for today's series opener is huge. He's been their most profitable starter this year and is coming off his 1st career shutout. Last Tuesday vs. Seattle, he threw the CG one-hitter w/ 12 strikeouts. In two starts vs. the Yankees this year, he's allowed only 5 ER in 13 IP. Both of Baltimore's wins over the weekend came in extra innings. They're now an extremely fortunate 12-2 in extra inning games this season, which normally would have me very skeptical, but consider they won yday's game despite going 1 for 17 w/ RISP! You would think more timely hitting is on the way then. That's not good news for Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who already has an 0-3 TSR his L3 starts w/ a 5.02 ERA. Montgomery did beat Bundy back in June, but that was at Yankee Stadium. On the road, his team start record is only 4-8. Talking about the price range, the Yanks are only 15-28 this season when on the road and the money line is -125 or less (either way). Good opportunity here for the O's to exact some revenge and stay in the Wild Card hunt. 8* Baltimore |
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09-03-17 | Angels -127 v. Rangers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (3:10 ET): A three-game sweep would certainly have been the desired outcome this weekend in Arlington, but the Angels will gladly accept taking two of three from the Rangers. That's the chance in front of them today as these two Wild Card contenders and AL West rivals play a rubber match at Globe Life Park. Texas took the series opener, 10-9 on Friday, while the Angels bounced back w/ a 7-4 win in 10 innings. Looking ahead, the Angels are the team here that I view as a more legit WC contender as the Rangers are due to fall short as repentance for last year's overachievement. The fact that their starter, Martin Perez, comes in w/ a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts is pretty shocking considering the skill set. I'm betting on him regressing to previous form today. As alluded to earlier, Texas is a very interesting team to evaluate over a two-year span. Last year's 95-win team was nowhere as good as its record as they outscored the opposition by only EIGHT runs. This year, their run differential is +32 (best among WC contenders), yet they remain a game below .500. I, for one, am not surprised as they should have been pegged for fewer wins this season anyway. Perez coming in on a five-start win streak is as shocking as shocking gets. While many Rangers' fans will want to laud the August that the southpaw just turned in, the fact is that he's been roughed up for six more runs three times in the last seven starts. Only half of his 26 starts this year have been quality and his ERA over his L7 starts is 5.44 (1.372 WHIP). He has a poor 1.530 WHIP for the year. The Angels' rotation has gotten healthier as the season has progressed, which is a big reason why the team finds itself in its current position, 1.5 games back of the Twins for the final Wild Card. A "sneaky" part of their success is that the bullpen posted the lowest ERA in baseball last month. Andrew Heaney gets the nod Sunday and he's coming off his best outing to date as he allowed just one run on two hits and struck out 10 batters Monday vs. Oakland. He's had one extra day of rest compared to Perez coming into today. This will be his second time seeing the Rangers and while the first didn't go that well (allowed 3 HR's), I expect he'll be a lot better this time around. Him simply handing the bullpen a lead is all we're looking for here as given the recent form of the Angels' relievers, they should be able to preserve the lead. Meanwhile, their hitters have found plenty of success in this series against the Rangers' pen including scoring five times in the final two frames last night. 10* LA Angels |
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09-03-17 | Rays -161 v. White Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -161 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (2:10 ET): There a seven teams - all separated by just four games - currently competing for the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rays are one of them and while they should be viewed as one of the more "legit" contenders, losing to the White Sox on Saturday certainly did not help. Chicago is obviously not one of the teams still in contention, in fact, by most objective standards (record, run differential), they're the AL's worst team. So I fully anticipate the road team bouncing back Sunday afternoon. Yesterday was a case of "bad luck" for Tampa Bay as Chris Archer gave up B2B homers to start the game and then had to exit early due to injury. Those circumstances are highly unlikely to present themselves again and the Rays are just the better team here. |
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09-02-17 | A's v. Mariners -136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Seattle (9:05 ET): The Mariners came into this series on a five-game losing streak and their playoff hopes appeared to be very much on "life support." But drawing Oakland at home this weekend just might be the cure. The M's snapped said losing streak last night w/ a 3-2 and despite still being a game under .500, they're only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card in the American League (though they'd have to jump many teams to get it). But like I already said, playing the A's should at least enable them to keep pace in the chase. Oakland is a dreadful road team as their 21-45 record is the AL's worst away from home. They've now lost four in a row, all on the road, and there's little reason to suggest they'll be able to turn things around tonight or moving forward. It should be noted that the Mariners were coming off a 12-game road trip. They had an off-day going into yday and that seemed to help. So did new arrival Mike Leake, who wound up throwing seven strong innings. Tonight, we must rely upon Yovani Gallardo, who admittedly has been shaky of late. He has a 6.29 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 21 starts this season and those numbers have actually gotten WORSE lately. The team has lost each of the L3 times he's taken the mound, but again, this will clearly be the weakest opponent he's faced in some time. Case in point, the A's are the one team Gallardo has pitched well against in 2017. He has a 2.95 ERA and 3-0 TSR. The last time he won was against Oakland. He's gone 17 innings against them this year and allowed just seven runs. Oakland turns to Jharel Cotton, arguably their best starter. While he's off B2B quality starts and wins, he did allow 6 ER each of the two starts before those. His KW rate also remains unimpressive. Yes, he posted a 9-0 vs. Texas his last time out, but he had more walks than strikeouts his two starts before that. Cotton faced Gallardo back on 8.9 and was terrible as he gave up three home runs and six runs total. Again, I have to point to the fact that Seattle is competing for a playoff spot while Oakland is simply "playing out the string" at this point. The A's run differential on the road (-1.4 rpg) is one of the worst in baseball and isn't likely to reverse course in the season's final month. 10* Seattle |
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09-01-17 | Nationals v. Brewers -137 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): For the second day in a row, the "sharp money" seems to be on the Brew Crew. It was "spot on" yday as they came back to beat the Nationals 6-3. I was a little leery considering the pitching matchup was Gio Gonzalez vs. Kyle Davies, but I'm "all in" tonight as Milwaukee sends Jimmy Nelson to the bump. This is a somewhat "dangerous" series for the Nats, whose standing is unlikely to change between now and the postseason. They know they're going to be NL East Champs (15 game lead!) and the likely 2nd seed, behind the Dodgers. For Milwaukee, things are far more dire. They trail the Cubs by 3.5 games in the NL Central and Colorado by 2.5 games for the 2nd Wild Card. They catch a break this weekend in that they don't have to face Max Scherzer until Sunday and avoid Stephen Strasburg entirely. They are the play here. I don't think anyone really expects the Brewers to be in the postseason, but don't tell them that. They've won four of five, beating the Dodgers (twice), Cards and Nats, collectively three of the NL's top six teams. Now they turn to their top pitcher, Nelson, who no-hit the Dodgers for five innings his last time out. He ended up allowing just two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 IP and got the win as a +182 ML dog. Overall, the team has won the last three times he's taken the mound. Despite losing to the Nats on 7.26, Nelson pitched very well against them, striking out 10 and allowing just two runs on four hits (sound familiar?). That was on the road. At home, he has better numbers and overall he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his previous seven starts. Washington had an easy time w/ Miami earlier this week, but that was at home and their rotation set up very well in that series w/ both Scherzer and Strasburg pitching. The team has played very well on the road all year long, but it's telling how the money has moved against them for a second consecutive day. Tanner Roark will get the start tonight and even though he too has looked good of late, he's not as good as Nelson. Over his L7 starts, Roark does have a 5-2 TSR, but four of those team wins have come by exactly one run. Last time out was also the first start since before Memorial Day where he didn't walk a single batter. For whatever reason, the Nationals don't seem to score as much when Roark is on the hill and that could prove costly against a team like the Brewers, who are top five in MLB when it comes to hitting home runs at home. 10* Milwaukee |
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08-30-17 | Rays v. Royals -138 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:10 ET): The Royals didn't just snap a five-game losing skid last night (won 6-2), they also ended an embarrassing stretch of baseball that had seen them get shut out FOUR consecutive times and outscored 32-0! They'd actually gone 45 straight innings w/o cross the plate! I don't think for a second that they're anywhere near as bad as they played during that stretch, thus you can look for the bounce back to continue tonight in the series finale w/ TB. Kansas City has taken a very "up and down" path en route to essentially being a .500 team this year. After ending July on a 10-2 run, they're just 10-17 here in August. Remember, they got off to a terrible start to the season before fighting their way back into contention. There's been a huge steam move here that I happen to agree with wholeheartedly. Having Jason Vargas on the hill should certainly help the home team's chances tonight. Though he didn't really pitch well in either of his last two starts (both against Cleveland), the offense was also shut out both times, so it really didn't matter. Vargas still comes in sporting a 16-9 team start record, making him the most profitable starter in the Royals rotation in 2017. Earlier this year, he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Rays and that was on the road. In three of his five Augusts starts, the Royals have failed to score a single run. If they can finally support him properly, I have little doubt that Vargas will hold up his "end of the bargain." Tampa Bay is just 15-21 this year when facing a left-handed starter. Though both of these teams are just below .500, they remain very much alive in the wide open AL Wild Card race which sees seven teams separated by just 3.5 games. Baseball is being played in Tampa right now (Texas-Houston series due to Hurricane Harvey), just not by the Rays. That's too bad for TB starter Jake Odorizzi as he desperately needs to be picked up after B2B poor showings. For the 1st time in his career, Odorizzi lasted less than four innings in B2B starts and as a result he comes in w/ a 8.10 ERA and 1.949 WHIP his L3. He's allowed a HR in 20 of his 22 starts this season and the Royals have had his number through the years as well. In six career starts, Odorizzi is 1-4 against KC w/ a 4.65 ERA. He was roughed up in his lone start here at Kauffman Stadium, though that came all the way back in 2014. Earlier this season, he came out on the losing end of that Vargas' gem and that's too bad because he actually pitched well. Kansas City is long overdue for some sort of offensive onslaught and I see them taking tonight's rubber match. 10* Kansas City |
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08-30-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -115 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:10 ET): Oddsmakers initially installed Detroit as the slight favorite here (w/ Justin Verlander on the hill), but the public had none of it and nor do I. Last night, I was on the Rockies as they rolled to an easy 7-3 win here. After initially jumping out to a 3-0 lead, they did have to come back w/ a four-run seventh to get the win. Colorado did lose the opener Monday, but as mentioned in yday's analysis, they actually outhit the Tigers in that game. The home team's problem - at least recently - has been a failure to get hits w/ RISP. While that issue seemed to persist last night (went 2 for 6), it's a stat where teams almost always regress/progress to the mean. So expect more timely hitting moving forward. As for the Tigers, you'd expect their offense to get a boost from playing at Coors Field, but remember they lose the DH from the batting order in this series plus Miguel Cabrera (back) is also out. Verlander has been sharp in B2B outings and as a result has a 0.935 WHIP his L3 starts. But the Tigers are not a good road team (26-42 overall), especially when Verlander is on the hill. Even when he pitches relatively well away from Comerica Park, like his last time out, the team still finds a way to lose. Last Friday saw the Tigers lose 3-2 at Chicago (White Sox), dropping Verlander's TSR away from home to a lousy 3-11 this season. He has a 5.02 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in those 14 starts. This hitter-friendly environment seems like one of the LEAST likely places for Verlander to turn around his road woes. The Tigers have been outscored by 1.3 rpg on the road this year, tied for the third worst run differential in all of MLB (only Oakland and San Diego are worse). Remember that this is one of only three American League teams not in playoff contention. Like I said earlier, the Detroit offense has really not benefited from the "Coors Effect," scoring just seven runs in the two games. Colorado, on the other hand, is the highest scoring home team in all of baseball and is 31-17 in day games (5.6 rpg scored) to boot. Chad Bettis makes his 4th start of the year here and while he's actually regressed with each passing start, note that the last time out was the second time he'd faced Atlanta in a 12-day span and also his 1st road start of '17. In two starts here at Coors Field, his ERA is 1.93. The Tigers have won just three of their previous 18 road series and I don't see them winning this one. It's an important game for the Rockies as they try and hold onto the second Wild Card in the N.L. 8* Colorado |
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08-29-17 | A's v. Angels -153 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
intended to be a FREE play! |
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08-29-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -141 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Not that they needed it after the Mayweather-McGregor fight Saturday night, but the sportsbooks reaped yet another windfall last night w/ the Rockies losing 4-3 to the Tigers. It was easily the biggest decision at most books considering the home team had been bet up from the opening number of -160 to somewhere north of -200, depending on your shop. In an atypical occurrence, there was no scoring at Coors Field after the third inning last night. Detroit struck for two runs in both the 1st and 3rd innings while all of Colorado's scoring came in the 2nd. The Rockies did outhit the Tigers for the game, 13-9, but sadly were 1 for 7 w/ RISP and stranded 11 men on base. They're now down to a .223 batting average w/ RISP this month. Still the highest scoring home team (6.1 rpg) in the majors, I see those struggles correcting themselves sooner rather than later and will call for a reversal of fortune tonight for the team desperately fighting for its playoff life. At one point, the Rockies making the playoffs was considered a formality. Not anymore. The Dodgers obviously blew by them long ago and now they're holding onto a rather precarious three game lead for the final Wild Card spot. Remember that this is a franchise that has made the playoffs only three times in its history and never won the NL West. But this year's team has improved in several key areas, most notably run suppression as they're at least middle of the road in most pitching metrics. German Marquez goes tonight and he's looking to follow up a quality start against another American League opponent (KC) where the only two runs allowed both came on solo homers. Remember that the Tigers are w/o the DH in the batting order for this series and Miguel Cabrera left last night's game w/ some lower back tightness. Those absences will certainly help Marquez, who already has an 8-2 team start record at Coors Field this season and a 3.12 ERA when pitching here since May 10th. Detroit is one of four AL teams out of contention, so they've really got nothing to play for from here on out. They had not been playing well coming into this series and have allowed an average of 6.4 runs per game over the L7 days w/ opponents batting .310. Those numbers don't figure to improve this week at hitter-friendly Coors Field, especially w/ the struggling Michael Fulmer on the bump. Fulmer is 0-5 w/ a 5.97 ERA his L6 starts and the Tigers were lucky to win the last one as he allowed five runs in six innings. The offense scored 10 runs that day, but has totaled only 13 in the four games since and like I said earlier, being w/o the DH (and possibly Cabrera) potentially cripples them even in the hitter-friendly environment. Give me the Rockies in this one. 8* Colorado |
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08-29-17 | Mets v. Reds -157 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Over the weekend, I showed that I'm not afraid to offer a rare recommendation on a bad team when I played Oakland over Texas. I'm going to do the same thing here today, this time in the National League, on Cincinnati. In yday's analysis, I mentioned that it is the Phillies who have been ML favorites the fewest number of times this year in the Senior Circuit. Well, the Reds aren't too far ahead of the Phillies as tonight marks just the 39th time (in 132 games) that they have been the ML favorite. But it's justified as they're not only at home, but playing a Mets team w/ little to play for, starting a pitcher that is questionable at best. The Mets have lost 11 of 15 overall and are giving up more than five runs per game on the road this year. Over the weekend, the Mets were able to split a four-game series w/ the first place Nationals. They were fortunate to have Monday off seeing as they played a doubleheader Sunday. But they are only 4-7 coming off an off-day this year and as alluded to earlier, starter Chris Flexen should not exactly have Mets' fans "feeling easy" heading into this series opener. While the Mets have won four of Flexen's six starts so far, that record should be considered fortunate at best given the pitcher's 5.79 ERA and 1.929 WHIP. On the road, Flexen has been particularly brutal w/ an 8.18 ERA and 2.545 WHIP (three starts). Control has been a primary concern w/ him as he's walked at least three batters in five of his six starts, including exactly four in each of the previous three. 20 walks in 28 IP is not good. Nor is the Mets' bullpen on the road (5.44 ERA, 1.570 WHIP). As per usual, I expect the Mets to give up plenty of runs on the road tonight. It would seem as if the sharp money agrees w/ my assessment of this matchup as the Reds have been bet up pretty significantly, which is something you obviously don't see all that often. They do average 5.0 rpg here at home where they have a respectable 31-35 record. Sal Romano will get the start here and he's looking to make it three straight wins and quality outings after allowing just three runs total in a pair of seven inning efforts. Last time out, he beat the Cubs as a +155 ML dog! The Mets have shockingly beaten the Reds 14 consecutive times, but this is actually the first time they've met in 2017 and this Mets team is nowhere near as good as past editions. Tonight will be the Reds' time to shine, something I haven't said all that often this season. 10* Cincinnati |
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08-28-17 | A's v. Angels -167 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Oakland just did the Angels (and a number of other teams) a big favor by sweeping the Rangers over the weekend. A crowded field of eight teams fighting for that 2nd Wild Card in the American League are separated by just six games and the Angels (along w/ Seattle) are one of the two teams closest to catching the Twins, just 1.5 games back. Here at home, I expect the Halos to pay the A's back w/ scorn. Relegated simply to spoiler, Oakland is not one of the eight teams competing for that final playoff berth and expecting them to carry over the momentum from the weekend seems optimistic at best. When these AL West rivals met earlier this month, the A's were able to take two of three here in LA. But a repeat of that seems unlikely given Oakland's terrible resume on the road as they're 21-41 and getting outscored by 1.3 runs per game. Oakland doesn't find itself on this kind of win streak often and they are just 4-8 when off three consecutive wins this season. Rookie Daniel Gossett will toe the rubber tonight, making his 2nd start since being recalled from Triple A. Last time out, things didn't go very well as he allowed five runs in five innings against Baltimore. The A's lost 8-7 in 12 innings. Overall, the team is just 4-7 when Gossett starts this year as his ERA is 5.49 and his WHIP is 1.441. He's 0-3 vs. the division w/ a 5.63 ERA. He probably shouldn't expect much run support either as the A's average just 3.9 rpg on the road. This just seems like a great spot to fade a last place team as they're coming off a rare sweep. As for the Angels, it's been a disappointing start to the homestand. They've gone 2-5 against the Rangers and Astros, including a tough 7-5 loss yday. But yday also marked the first time they were at "plus money" (dog) on the ML this homestand, which tells me the market is really starting to respect them, especially considering they were slight favorites to beat the Astros twice. Andrew Heaney pitches today and while his TSR is 0-2 w/ SEVEN home runs allowed, I'm projecting his best start to date comes tonight. He does have a good KW ratio (9-0) and has been rather efficient in terms of the pitch count as well. I think the home run ball is just "one of those things" and can be corrected. If the Angels are to make the postseason (and I give them a great shot), this is a series they should probably sweep. 8* LA Angels |
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08-27-17 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -183 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:05 ET): The Giants blew what was pretty clearly their best shot at taking a game in this weekend series by losing 2-1 yesterday w/ Madison Bumgarner starting. As per usual, Bumgarner did his job (allowed just five hits in 7 IP) and as per usual, the Giants offense failed to support him. Now MadBum did allow the two solo home runs, but limiting the scoring to that is pretty impressive when you consider the D'backs are tied for #3 in scoring at home w/ 5.5 runs per game. That's a big reason why the team has gone 41-23 at Chase Field this season, the second best home record in all of baseball (trailing only the Dodgers). With Chris Stratton on the hill today, the Giants are unlikely to limit the D'backs offense in the manner they did yday and it also needs to be pointed out that at 21-44 (-22.0 units!), they are one of MLB's worst road teams. Arizona has now won five of six, including three consecutive games by one-run. They've been able to put together that win streak in spite of some paltry offensive numbers, at least compared to their usual standard. I expect the offense to break out today, but it may not even have to considering Patrick Corbin is on the hill. Over his L3 starts, Corbin has flat out been lights out w/ a 0.39 ERA and 0.728 WHIP! He's allowed just 1 run in 23 1/3 IP and most important of all is that the D'backs won all three times. Corbin does have an 0-2 TSR vs. the Giants this year, surprising given the opponent's overall level of ineptitude this season. But the last time he faced them, it was a hard luck loss as Corbin was charged w/ three unearned runs, spoiling a 10 K (season-high) performance. That was at AT&T Park and I like his chances for success even more here at home as the team is 9-1 this year as a ML home favorite of -175 to -250. No team has lost more at the betting window this year than have the Giants. They are down 31.7 units or seven more than the second worst team. Simply put, oddsmakers are not pricing this team as they should, which is as one of the worst teams in baseball. They are, after all, 27 games below .500. As a road underdog of +125 or higher, they are 7-19 this season dropping them to 27-57 in that range since 2015. They're being outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road this year and are 18-28 in day games while averaging just 3.5 rpg. None of this is good news for starter Chris Stratton, who like Corbin has an impressive 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Stratton hasn't allowed a single run in his last 12 2/3 IP, but the fact he finished his last start w/ only one strikeout is a somewhat ominous sign. I look for the D'backs to complete the sweep here as they continue to try and hold onto home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game. 8* Arizona |
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08-27-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
10* Boston (1:35 ET): The Red Sox have been humiliated in B2B losses to the Orioles this weekend, getting outscored. Going back to the final game of the Cleveland series, they've actually been outscored 36-9 over the L3 games! But this small sample size is hardly indicative of the way they've played all season. In fact, prior to the current three-game losing skid, they'd outscored their opponents by 111 runs over the course of the season. However, only once this year have they lost four consecutive games and that was out on the West Coast. They have not been swept in a series of three or more games here at Fenway at any time this season. The last two days have been real "head-scratchers" in my book as Baltimore is still only 25-39 on the road. Clearly, I'm calling for Boston to come through here and avoid the sweep. Doug Fister will start here for the Red Sox and he happens to be coming off his finest performance of 2017. After allowing a leadoff HR, he didn't allow another hit Tuesday in Cleveland and went the distance. Will he duplicate that performance here? Not sure about that, but he probably doesn't have to. Boston is 40-24 at home this year and averaging 5.1 runs in day games. Again, I feel that the last two days have been abberrations. By any rational and objective measure, the Red Sox are the far better ballclub here. They are 7-5 this season following a game in which they had four or fewer hits. This is a top 10 offense in runs scored, batting average and OBP. I can't see them being shut down for a third straight day by a Baltimore pitching staff that is subpar to say the least. I would have liked to see Chris Tillman in this spot for the O's, but it will be Wade Miley instead. That's okay though as Miley has a 4.82 ERA in his career at Fenway. Most of that came as a member of the 2015 Red Sox, but as the enemy, things have gone worse for him. In two starts against Boston as the visitor, his ERA has jumped to 7.56. Overall, this has not been a good year for Miley, who has a 5.11 ERA and 1.682 WHIP in 26 starts. Out of those 26 starts, only SEVEN have been quality. He's walked at least three batters in every start in August. Keep in mind that despite ranking seventh in MLB in runs scored, the Orioles have been outscored this year by 24 runs. That speaks to how suspect this pitching staff has been and I just can't see a continuation of the last two days. 10* Boston |
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08-26-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -171 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): I'm kind of scratching my head over why the Dodgers would be opened so low on the money line here. Sure, this will be the first time starting for Ross Stripling, but he'll obviously be backed by the best team in baseball. Fresh off beating Milwaukee on Friday, 3-1, the Dodgers are now an almost unfathomable 91-36 w/ a +223 run differential. They are well on their way to delivering one of, if not THE, great regular seasons in MLB history. At home, they've outscored opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game thanks in large part to being - easily - #1 in run suppression (allow only 3.1 rpg here at Chavez Ravine). Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been trending in the wrong direction for some time now. They are just 14-22 their L36 games and I don't think anyone believes they're going to win the NL Central. No need to "outthink the room" on this one. We should not expect Stripling to pitch long tonight. After all, he just pitched Monday (in relief) and recorded the three FINAL outs in a 6-5 win over Pittsburgh. It was the 2nd save of the season for Stripling, who typically works out of the bullpen. The last 13 times he has been used, he has not thrown more than 36 pitches. As already mentioned, this is his first time starting in '17. But it's not the first time he's started in his young career. Last year, as a rookie, he made 14 starts. Aiding his cause here is the fact he'll be facing a Brewers lineup which is batting a collective .227 over its L7 games. The Brew Crew have scored just seven runs total their last four games. When called upon, the Dodgers' bullpen is something we can count on. They've posted a 0.950 WHIP at home over the course of the entire season. Milwaukee turns to Zach Davies in this spot. He is off B2B quality efforts, though he was a hard luck loser (to San Francisco) his last time out. Davies is one of the select few that can claim to hold a win over the Dodgers this year as he threw six scoreless innings against them back on June 4th. But that performance came at home. Here at home, the Dodgers are a preposterous 52-14, including 27-6 when priced between -175 and -250. Three starts ago, Davies did get rocked for seven runs by the Twins. While he does have some nice wins this season, including the one over the Dodgers, tonight is the tallest order he will have faced all season. The Dodgers are just too good to pass up when priced "this low." 8* LA Dodgers |
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08-25-17 | Rangers v. A's -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Oakland (10:05 ET): The A's rarely get an endorsement from me. After all, they've been at the bottom of the AL West all year and one could make the arguement that they've been the American League's worst team for most of 2017. But conditions are favorable tonight as they return home to host division rival Texas. First off, the A's didn't have to play Thursday. Texas did. Next, this is a revenge spot. Believe it or not, this is the first time these teams have played since May where the Rangers swept a three-game set in Arlington. Previously, they'd split six head to head matchups. If you're a regular, then you know how I love taking teams playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep of 3+ games. It's just too difficult in today's game to beat the same opponent, day after day. Finally, Texas has made a pitching change here (reason for line being posted late). They now are going w/ Nick Martinez, who is not good (more on that later). The A's are the play here. Right-hander A.J. Griffin was originally supposed to start here for the Rangers, but he was pushed back until Sunday. Perhaps the team is feeling a little "too good" about itself after taking three of four from the Angels in Anaheim to start the week. That has them as one of FIVE teams within one game of the second Wild Card spot in the AL! But let's go back and look at just how bad Martinez has been this year. He was demoted after a pair of terrible starts at the beginning of the month where he allowed a total of 12 runs in 9 1/3 IP. The team lost both games. For the year, Martinez has a 5.68 ERA in 13 starts, including 6.19 in seven on the road. Oakland is going w/ Kendall Graveman, who has yet to drop a single decision at home this year (2-0 in six starts!). While the A's are an absolutely dreadful road team (21-41 record), they are over .500 here at home. Texas has a losing road record and the lowest team batting average on the road in all of baseball. That latter fact is good news for Graveman, who is already off B2B quality outings. Last time out, he certainly pitched well enough to win as he allowed just two runs in six innings. Unfortunately, his offense "forgot to score" in a 3-0 loss to Houston. The Oakland offense collected 27 hits the L2 games, so I don't expect a repeat of the hard-luck for Graveman tonight. This is a great spot for the A's to play spoiler, in my opinion. 10* Oakland |
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08-25-17 | Padres v. Marlins -148 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:10 ET): Anytime I can play against San Diego at this price, I'll jump on the opportunity. Especially if they are off a rare win as they are here. Last night saw the Padres stun the Cardinals, 4-3, as +225 ML dogs. But that singular result can't change the fact that this team has been outscored by more runs than any other in baseball (-148 run diff). Most of that damage has come on the road where they are 24-40 and -1.6 rpg. If we're being honest (I always like to be!) here, as bad as the Padres' record is right now (57-70), it ought to be even worse. Based on run differential, they have a win expectancy of only 47 games. That 10-game differential between actual and expected wins is by far the largest in the National League! Clearly, I'm on the other side tonight. Everyone besides the Nats is playing for second in the NL East this year. Really, it's a pointless distinction as none of the other four teams in the division are in serious playoff contention. But tip your cap to Miami, who is now .500 after taking three of four from the lowly Phillies. Overall, it was a 5-2 road trip for the Fish. Now they get to return home and play a favorable opponent. I'm impressed with this team keeping it together considering the tragic death of Jose Fernandez. Giancarlo Stanton, the other cornerstone, has been darn near unconscious at the plate as yday saw him slug his 47th home run (#1 in MLB) and 14th in August. Overcoming a five-run deficit on Thursday afternoon shows me that the Marlins believe they can get into Wild Card contention. I probably should talk about the pitching matchup. As we know, San Diego struggles on the road. Those struggles even extend to Travis Wood, who has made just two road starts for the team since coming over from Kansas City around the All-Star Break. Neither start has gone well either as Wood has a 8.10 ERA and 1.900 WHIP and the team has lost both times. Admittedly, Wood was sharp at home his last time out, allowing only an unearned run (over 7 IP) in a somewhat shocking upset of Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals. But that was at home, obviously. Marlins' starter Adam Conley is also off a strong start as he allowed just one run on three hits Sunday in his own upset of Jacob deGrom and the Mets. Plus, he had 11 strikeouts, which is far more impressive than the two Wood had vs. Washington. Miami has won four of Conley's six starts since he was recalled from Triple A. Conley has a 1.13 ERA in two career appearances vs. San Diego while Wood has a 7.92 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Miami. Let's also not forget that the Padres offense ranks dead last in the league in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage. 8* Miami |
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08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels -124 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): I've been on the Halos in each of the first three games of this series and unfortunately come up short twice. Last night, it was a 7-5 loss (in 10 innings). But I'll maintain that Los Angeles remains the better team here even though they have a losing record against the Rangers this year (5-7) and an inferior run differential. A big key tonight is Texas sending Martin Perez to the bump. Perez is not a good starter and despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 outings, he still sports a 5.19 ERA and 1.562 WHIP for the year. The Rangers' bullpen has been bad on the road all year as well and is currently w/o one of its key components. Third baseman Joey Gallo is also still out. This is the 4th time in 7 days that the Rangers come into a game at exactly .500. They've lost each of the previous three occasions. The Angels will go w/ Troy Scribner Thursday. Again, the names in this starting rotation may not jump off the page at you, but there's been some really solid production out of these relatively unknown arms. The Angels are currently #5 in runs allowed in the American League, trailing only the "obvious" four playoff teams. As I've discussed previously, Texas has the worst road batting average in all of baseball (.222) and it's not even close. That will certainly benefit Scribner, who comes in w/ a 3.00 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in two starts, both resulting in wins for the team. The last one came on 8.9 against Baltimore, who he held to just one run (a solo HR) on two hits in 5 IP. Scribner has mostly pitched at Triple-A Salt Lake this year where he's gone 11-4. Given Texas' year-long struggles to hit the ball on the road, yday's 13-run output should certainly be taken w/ a grain of salt. I expect Scribner to pitch well in this spot. Perez was tagged for six runs in his last start, but got a break as the offense broke loose for 17 runs in what ended up being an easy win over the lowly White Sox. But that was in Arlington. It was the third time in five starts that Perez allowed six or more runs. While the other two starts were both good, the overall numbers indicate that Perez is more like the pitcher we saw last Saturday vs. Chicago. Also, one of those two quality starts took place in an NL park, making it easier on him as he got to face the pitcher. In fact, take away National League opponents and Perez has just one quality start since the All-Star Break. He's 2-4 w/ a 3.53 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Angels. The only time he faced them this season was back in April. He allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP. I still believe in the Angels. 8* LA Angels |
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08-24-17 | Twins -173 v. White Sox | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -173 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): By no means am I enamored w/ the Twins (-33 run diff). They lost last night to the White Sox despite a seemingly big starting pitching edge in their favor (Santana vs. Shields). However, it's the same thing on paper tonight and I don't see them losing again. This is actually the finale of a FIVE-game series between the AL Central rivals (played a doubleheader Monday) that has seen each side win twice. The key here is Chicago's Derek Holland might just be the worst starter in all of MLB. In 24 starts this season, he has produced a 6.46 ERA and 1.720 WHIP. But that doesn't even begin to tell the story of how horrible he's been recently. He's given up seven runs in B2B starts despite lasting a total of just 4 2/3 innings! Jose Berrios has been a fine #2 (behind Santana) for the Twins this year and the road team should roll here. Last night marked the first time this season that Minnesota lost as a ML road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. They were 4-0 previously and 7-0 the L3 seasons! Like Houston (discussed elsewhere in this package), the Twins are one of the few teams that have actually performed better on the road than at home this season (Cleveland and Washington are the others). Now that really hasn't been the case when Berrios is on the hill (4-6 TSR on the road), but tonight's starter is off a gem where he outdueled Arizona's Zack Greinke. Last Saturday saw Berrios toss seven shutout innings of two hit ball as the Twins won 5-0 over the D'backs as +130 ML underdogs. He has gotten to face the White Sox only one time this season and not surprisingly he dominated them as back on 6.21 he went eight innings, allowing just two runs on four hits. Like last time out, he finished w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. The fact that Holland has remained in the White Sox rotation all season speaks to just how bad said rotation is. The Twins are certainly happy to see him again as they are Talready 3-0 against him in 2017. The last two times, they've touched him up for seven runs in five innings or less. That means Holland has an ERA of 9.64 against the Twins in '17, which also includes him pitching 1/3 of an inning of relief on Monday. Even then, he managed to give up three runs! Why the White Sox would use him in relief in that spot, I do not know. What I do know is that Holland's career ERA is 5.68 against the Twins and he's 2-6 in 13 starts. So he's never really pitched well against this particular opponent. Chicago is a lousy team, going nowhere fast, while Minnesota is trying to hold down the second Wild Card in the American League (three teams within one game of them!). This is a "must win" for the Twins. 8* Minnesota |
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08-23-17 | Rangers v. Angels -143 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): No surprise here; I'm sticking w/ the Halos here as I believe they're the superior team in this AL West rivalry. Now, normally, I might make a case for Texas due to their YTD run differential of +28, which is the best among the eight teams currently competing for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League. But as I've noted many times before, regression (in terms of wins and losses) was set to take hold on the Rangers from the start of 2017 and their season has played out exactly as I had anticipated. Remember, LY's team that led the AL in wins (95) only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs the entire season! Simply put, they were "due" to win fewer games this year and barring a 36-1 finish to the season (ain't happening!), that will happen. As for the Angels, right now, I believe they are going to be the team that gets that last playoff spot. I've been on the home team in both games thus far and so has the smart money. With the benefit of hindsight, perhaps fading Cole Hamels on Monday was not the best idea. But a 10-1 win last night was "more like it" as the Angels scored runs in all of the final four innings they came up to bat. They've now won 10 of their previous 13 games and yday's 16 hits were a season-high. Something I included in yday's analysis still rings true today and that's the Rangers are the worst hitting team in baseball on the road. It's not even close as their .220 batting average is 14 points lower than the next worst team! To put that gap in its proper perspective, note that it's larger than the one that exists between the 18th and 29th place teams! So with Texas' woes at the plate persisting, expect things to be fairly easy on Angels' starter Andrew Heaney tonight. While his 1st start of 2017 (coming off Tommy John surgery) didn't go so well, it did come at Baltimore, a team that can score in bunches at home. Heaney allowed FOUR home runs last Friday, which isn't a great sign, but I feel he's still worth backing here. The Rangers' counter with an Andrew of their own, Cashner, and he lost as a -210 money line favorite his last time out! That was against the White Sox as he walked four batters and gave up three runs in 5 2/3 IP. He has a 3-7 TSR on the road, so that combined with his offense's issues means another loss is very likely for tonight. 8* LA Angels |
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08-23-17 | Padres v. Cardinals -164 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): The Cardinals were embarrassed last night by the Padres, losing 12-4. While it was their third loss in a row, I fully anticipate the Redbirds bouncing back tonight here at home. As stated many times before, San Diego - records aside - is the worst team in baseball. They have the worst run differential (-145) in either league and have been particularly brutal on the road, getting outscored by a whopping 1.6 runs per game. No team has a worse run differential away from home. There have been only FIVE times all season where they have beaten the same opponent, consecutive days, on the road. Three of those came at the expense of the Giants (twice) and Phillies. The Cardinals are in a pennant race (currently trail Cubs by 4.5 gms) and don't dare drop another one to such an inferior opponent. What happened last night was a very rare power surge from the Padres. While not as rare as the solar eclipse we all saw Monday, you simply aren't going to find San Diego scoring 12 runs very often. Not only did that match their season-high (set previously twice, both time against the Giants), but it was more runs scored than their previous five games - combined. Eight of the 12 runs came late, breaking open what had been a 4-4 tie entering the seventh inning. You have to remember that the Padres still rank dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and on base percentage. Thus, I look for Cards starter Luke Weaver to be the beneficiary of some good ol' "Padres regression" here. Weaver has started only twice previously this season (last time was 8.2), but did throw two shutout innings in relief last Thursday, helping his team overcome a five-run deficit and beat Pittsburgh 11-7. Mirroring his team's awful play on the road, San Diego starter Jhoulys Chacin does not have good numbers outside of Petco Park this season. While his TSR might be 5-7, his ERA and WHIP are 7.05 and 1.650 respectively. Arguably the Padres' best starter, Chacin has had literally zero success vs. the Cards as he's 0-4 w/ a 5.81 ERA against them in five previous tries. While it's been St. Louis giving up plenty of runs lately, for the year, they only allow an average of 4.0 per game here at home. They are also 22-9 the L3 seasons after three or more consecutive losses. This is a tailor-made spot for the vastly superior team to bounce back Wednesday night. 10* St. Louis |
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08-23-17 | Red Sox v. Indians -182 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -182 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (7:10 ET): On paper, the Indians appeared to have what looked like a pretty significant edge in starting pitching yday vs. Boston. It was Carlos Carrasco facing off w/ Doug Fister, but it was Fister that came up big w/ a one-hitter in a surprise 9-1 victory for the Red Sox. While it's unusual to find the AL East leaders in this price range (closed at +165 last night), I'll jump in against them tonight as they must deal w/ Corey Kluber and I just can't see the Tribe losing B2B games as big favorites here at Progressive Field. This could very well be the first time all year that the Red Sox close at +175 or higher on the ML and it's more than justified considering Kluber has a 6-0 TSR his L6 starts. Last night's final score was a bit misleading in the sense that the Red Sox scored six run late, most of that off the Cleveland bullpen. You probably don't need me to tell you that Kluber is having himself another downright filthy season. He is 8-1 w/ a 2.09 ERA and 0.860 WHIP at home. Last time out, he saw his streak of 14 consecutive starts w/ at least 8 K's end, but only due to having to exit early due to a mild ankle sprain. The Indians won anyway, 10-1, as Kluber gave up a solo home run in 5 1/3 IP and little else. That streak of 14 games w/ 8+ K's was one shy of Randy Johnson's MLB record, by the way. Since the start of June, Kluber has an other-worldly 155-18 KW ratio. Even after exiting that last start early, he remains 3rd among all American League starters in strikeouts. He is second in both ERA (2.67) and WHIP (0.924) and the numbers only seem to getting better as the season wears on. Opponents are batting just .174 against him his L15 starts! His 14 complete games and five shutouts over the L4 seasons are both AL-bests. Boston knows all too well about how domninant Kluber can be as the last time they faced him (LY's ALDS), they were shutout for seven innings and held to three hits. Can Boston's Drew Pomeranz repeat the performance we saw from Fister last night? Unlikely. While he didn't give up any runs in his last start, Pomeranz lasted only 3 1/3 innings as he too was battling an injury (back spasms). He may be unbeaten (6-0) in 12 starts dating back to June 11th, but all things considered, I'll take Kluber over Pomeranz every time, especially if the latter is less than 100 percent. Cleveland's bullpen issues (Andrew Miller injured) don't matter as much here due to Kluber's ability to consistently pitch deep into games. The most significant injury heading into this matchup is on the Boston side as Jackie Bradley Jr is out after injuring his thumb on a slide in yday's game. 6* Cleveland |
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08-22-17 | Rangers v. Angels -130 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels got a ton of action heading into last night's series opener w/ Texas. Though it certainly appeared to be sharp dollars accounting for the line move (I was on them too!), they ended up losing 5-3 and in retrospect, betting against Cole Hamels may have been a miscalculation. Still, it was a short-handed Rangers team coming into Anaheim and the Angels had won 9 of 11. The visitors are still w/o two valuable pieces, 3B Joey Gallo and RP Matt Bush, both of whom were placed on the 10-day DL after a nasty collision Sunday. There will be no Hamels to save them tonight and I remain pretty adamant that the Halos are the better ballclub here. I think the offense "wakes back up" here against Tyson Ross, who despite a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, is struggling mightly. In today's edition of "a pitcher's record can be highly misleading," let me introduce Mr. Ross of Texas. The team may have won each of his previous three starts, but that's in spite of the pitcher producing a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP! Rarely will you see a pitcher have an unblemished team start record during a span in which his WHIP is north of 2.000. So Ross is certainly "due" to drop one. He hasn't made it a full six innings in any start since the All-Star Break and control issues have been a major issue of late, especially last time out where he walked SIX batters in just 4 1/3 IP. That was against the lowly White Sox, no less. Ironically, the last time you could say Ross pitched "well" was against these Angels (back on 7.8), but that was at home. He is winless in four road starts this year, thanks in large part to an 8.50 ERA and 1.722 WHIP. Now Angels starter Ricky Nolasco has certainly not pitched much better than Ross of late and has been plagued by wild inconsistency all season long. He didn't pitch well against Texas either time he faced them in '17, nor does he have a good career track record against them. But he does come off a nice win last Wednesday at Washington where he allowed just two runs and five hits in 5 2/3 IP. He should benefit here from the fact that Texas' hitters have a collective .219 batting average on the road this season, which is - easily - the worst in all of MLB. Second worst is Arizona and they're at .234. Only three teams - San Diego, Philadelphia and Oakland - have scored fewer runs on the road this year than have the Rangers. In a big national TV game (ESPN), I expect Nolasco and the Angels to "show up" big time. 8* LA Angels |
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08-22-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays -190 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
6* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): This is a big-time revenge spot for the Rays, who dropped three of four up in Toronto last week w/ one of the games having this identical pitching matchup. Originially, the Blue Jays were going to start Marcus Stroman in this spot, but they've changed to Chris Rowley. While Rowley may have a 2-0 TSR, a 1.451 WHIP certainly isn't that impressive as he walked Rays last Thursday. Opposing him again will be Chris Archer, Tampa Bay's best pitcher, and considering they've lost 8 of 10, this is a virtual "must-win" for the home team. Archer pitched well enough to win on Thursday, certainly better than Rowley, as he struck out 10 (no walks) in seven innings (did give up 2 HR's). I think it's important to note that Toronto has been priced higher than +175 five times this season and has gone 0-5 in those games. A lack of hitting has really hurt the Rays in August. Even when they won for me Sunday, they scored only three times. They were fortunate in that Blake Snell shut out the Mariners, however, I think Archer is capable of doing the same here. Toronto has hardly hit the cover off the baseball lately as their team batting average is a pretty woeful .217 the L7 games after being swept by the Cubs over the weekend. Archer is quite familiar w/ this Jays team, having faced them 23x in his career, and his ERA is a solid 3.16. Other than Josh Donaldson, who hit both HR's, the Jays managed just three other hits against Archer, who has now allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts. His last six times out, he has a 51-7 KW ratio. The chase for the second Wild Card spot in the American League is wide open. These AL East foes are two of the eight teams currently separated by just five games. Toronto happens to be in the "back of the pack" right now and their -81 run differential for the year all but confirms they are the worst of the lot. In fact, among all AL clubs, only the White Sox and Oakland have worse run differentials than the Jays. Toronto is also 4-11 when playing w/ a day off this year. Meanwhile, TB is 3-1 when off a shutout victory. I do believe that we're likely to see an uptick in offensive productions from the Rays here in the short-term (how can we not?), especially w/ Kevin Kiermaier back in the fold. Despite what may have transpired last week, the Rays are the better team here and w/ their ace pitching tonight at home, I expect that to be apparent. 6* Tampa Bay |
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08-21-17 | Rangers v. Angels -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
10* LA Angels: Two of the eight teams (separated by only five games!) in the American League fighting for that second Wild Card open up the week w/ a critical four-game set in Anaheim. Weeks ago, I said that it was the Angels that could be the team that breaks out from this loaded pack and sure enough they've made me look pretty smart by winning 9 of 11, including a one-run victory at Baltimore on Sunday. The Rangers are also playing well entering Monday; they've won 8 of 11, but did lose yday (at home) to the lowly White Sox. Texas remains an interesting case study in regression as LY they led the AL in wins, but did so in spite of a measley +8 run differential. This year, their run diff is +35 (only one of the eight teams w/ a positive run diff currently), but they're a game below .500! While recent numbers look impressive for them, note all those games came at home. For the Angels, this is their return home following a nine-game road trip. I expect them to play well and they're the better team overall. Texas is probably feeling pretty good about itself w/ Cole Hamels set to be on the mound this evening. But even though he's 8-1 (9-6 TSR) and the team has won each of his L3 starts, he also has an ERA of 4.00 on the road this year. He's pitched very well against the Angels this year, giving up just one run in two starts (14 2/3 IP) , though the team did lose the one here in Anaheim. Let's note that the Rangers are just 26-33 overall on the road this year w/ their bullpen posting terrible numbers, such as a 5.30 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. They team may also be w/o two key contributors tonight as 3B Joey Gallo and reliever Matt Bush ran into each other yday, resulting in concussions for both. Reportedly, neither made the trip to Anaheim last night. Though the Rangers scored 17 runs on Saturday, having to settle for a split w/ the White Sox (4-game series) over the weekend isn't exactly inspiring. Texas comes in having scored the third most runs in the American League, trailing only the Astros and Yankees. But surprisingly, the Angelss have allowed the fourth fewest runs and are even ahead of the Astros. Tyler Skaggs has yet to win since coming back to the rotation at the start of the month, but his ERA in three starts is 2.94. Last time out, he allowed two solo HR's in a hard-luck 3-1 loss to the Nationals. But Skaggs should expect more run support this time as the offense scored 5+ runs in six of the nine games on the just completed road trip, doing so despite Andrelton Simmons being mired in a 0 for 19 slump (which should turn around sooner rather than later). Furthermore, the Halos are 55-26 their L81 games as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 10* LA Angels |
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08-20-17 | Indians -145 v. Royals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (2:10 ET): The Indians are a house of fire right now as they've won eight of nine including both games so far here in Kansas City (I was on them both times). They now have the third best overall run differential in MLB (trailing only the Dodgers and Houston) and finally are starting to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in the AL Central (6 gm lead on Minnesota, 7.5 over KC). No other team in the division has a run diff better than -31 currently, so there really is no debating that the Tribe is clearly the class of the Central. As I've mentioned in previous analysis, pitching has been the key to this run and that should continue today w/ Danny Salazar on the mound. Again, I expect the Royals to have no answer. Cleveland is #1 in the AL on the runs allowed side of the ledger, something that should serve them well moving forward. They've allowed 38 fewer runs than Boston, who has given up the 2nd fewest number. All but one other AL team has allowed 70 more runs this season than Cleveland, who has allowed just one run in this series and three or fewer in eight of the last nine games. Now it's Salazar's turn and he comes in flashing awesome form. His L5 starts have seen him allow five runs total (1.39 ERA) and his KW ratio is 46-9. He dominated the Twins on Tuesday, striking out 10 while allowing just one run on three hits (went seven innings). If that's not enough, Cleveland's bullpen also sports the lowest ERA in the league. This has been an excellent road team all season as they are actually outscoring opponents by a full run per game away from Progressive Field. They are 8-2 on the current trip (final game today) and an AL-best 20-8 since July 21st. Meanwhile, the Royals are trending in the opposite direction as they have lost 12 of 18 games here in August and the culprit has been their starting pitching, which has a 5.99 ERA for the month. So, as you might expect, we have a pitching mismatch on our hands here as KC will go w/ Jason Hammel in this spot. I can't see Hammel standing up to Salazar here, not after the former allowed three home runs (to the A's!) in his last start. Hammel also has a 4-10 team start record here at home. KC has been outscored at home this season and simply is not in their division rival's class. 8* Cleveland |
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08-20-17 | Mariners v. Rays -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): The Rays burned me yet again last night as they fell to Seattle 7-6. It was their eighth loss in the last nine games and fourth in a row. I've been on them for each of the last three, all of which have been as ML favorites. Yes, I've talked about the lack of offense before, but late last night we finally started to see signs of this lineup waking up. Though the rally ultimately fell one run short, the team did fight back and scored four times over the final four frames. It matched their best offensive output in the L15 games (scored just 30 runs total). The Rays still have yet to beat Seattle this year (0-5), a head to head record that makes little sense considering how the two Wild Card contenders profile rather evenly. TB even has a slightly better YTD run differential. I'm sticking w/ them one more time today and calling for them to avoid the sweep. Eight teams are now separated by just four games in the chase for that final Wild Card spot in the American League. Among those eight teams, only Texas has a positive run differential. Seattle has now won four straight to get to two games above .500, but let us not forget they'd lost five in a row prior to the current win streak. This is an average team at best, one that is below average w/ Yovani Gallardo (starts today) on the mound. Gallardo checks in w/ a 7-12 TSR as his ERA and WHIP are 6.41 and 1.585 respectively. He's been even worse recently, particularly in his last start where he allowed eight runs in just four innings of work. The Mariners lost that game, 11-3 to Baltimore. Gallardo hasn't gone a full six innings in six consecutive starts. A grand slam (from Mitch Haniger) is what did the Rays in yday, but hopefully we'll be in better hands today w/ Blake Snell on the mound. Snell is off his 1st win of the season (in 16 starts!), but that's misleading when you consider that the team has won each of the last three times the lefty has started. That includes wins over both Houston and Cleveland as ML underdogs. The current stretch is easily the Rays worst of the season, but the "good" news is that they have not lost more than five games in a row at any point this season. The current streak is at four and they were 9-3 coming off three consecutive losses before this streak began. I simply can't see them being swept by the Mariners for a second time this season. 8* Tampa Bay |
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08-20-17 | Marlins v. Mets -158 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (1:10 ET): This is the rubber match between these two NL East also-rans w/ the Mets looking to win two in a row for just the second time here in August. Last night's win was all about "one big inning" as they scored seven times in the sixth, an inning where Miami also happened to commit three errors. Today, they have Jacob deGron toeing the rubber and I like their chances. The Marlins are deGrom's most common opponent (11 starts) and he has a 3.46 ERA against them. While off a rare rough outing his last time out (allowed 5 ER in 7 1/3 IP vs. the Yankees), deGrom has been the stalwart of this Mets rotation w/ a 15-9 TSR overall and he's got a 2.49 ERA and 1.147 WHIP here at home. Prior to his last start, he'd allowed 3 ER or fewer in six consecutive starts. Compared to the Mets, Miami had been playing well of late. Going into yday's game, they'd won six of seven and took the series opener 3-1. But this is by no means any kind of strong outfit; in fact, they've been at least two games under .500 since late April. Adam Conley pitches for the Fish today and he comes in w/ a 5.26 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in 12 starts this year. He did pitch well his last time out, a quality effort vs. San Francisco (who is one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, mind you), but notice also that Conley did not strike out a single batter. He is 2-0 against the Mets this year w/ both starts coming all the way back in early April. One was at deGrom's expense. But the bottom line is that this is a low strikeout pitcher w/ a 1.741 WHIP his L3 starts. I feel today's game happens to be a huge pitching mismatch in the Mets' favor. The April 15th faceoff w/ Conley is the only time deGrom has started against Miami this year. He certainly pitched well enough to win back on April 13th as he delivered 13 K's (same # as Conley has in his last four starts combined) and allowed just two runs (both solo HR's) in 7 IP. In my opinion, deGrom is due for a better success rate. His TSR over his L7 starts is just 4-3, but he has a 53:10 KW ratio over that time, not to mention a 2.64 ERA and 1.028 WHIP. He remains an elite pitcher, one that the Marlins will not have an answer for on Sunday. 10* NY Mets |
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08-19-17 | Indians -130 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:15 ET): Despite having just played a doubleheader the day before, the Indians had no problem with a rested Royals team on Friday, winning 10-1 in the opener of a three-game set. It was the Tribe's seventh win in the last eight games, most of them blowouts, as we're (finally) starting to see them pull away in the American League Central. If you're a regular client of mine, then you read several weeks ago how I predicted that Cleveland would start to do just that. Though the gap between them and the rest of the division remains at a modest six games, the Indians are significantly better than the field. That's confirmed by the fact they are +128 in run differential (4th best in MLB) and no other AL Central team even has outscored its opponents this year. Despite being a game over .500, the Royals are -26 in run diff and I see another big win for the division leader today. KC had no answer for Corey Kluber last night, managing just the one run on six hits off him in 5 1/3 IP. Even Kluber leaving early (ankle injury) couldn't do the Royals any good. Of course, Kluber isn't the only reason that Cleveland leads the American League in the runs allowed side of the ledger (bodes well moving forward). They have MLB's top bullpen (in terms of ERA) and a starting rotation that is now at full strength. Tonight it will be Trevor Bauer going as he looks to make it five straight quality starts. Last time out, despite giving up 3 HR's (all solo shots), Bauer beat Boston as he struck out 11 and didn't give up any more runs. The Royals are hardly an offensive juggernaut as they rank 21st in runs scored and 27th in on base percentage. Last night saw the Indians lineup hand Ian Kennedy his shortest start since May. Tonight, they face Jason Vargas. While Vargas has pitched well against Cleveland in the past, overall we're talking about a pitcher that has struggled recently. Since the start of July, he's pitched seven times. Three of those he's allowed 6 ER. Cleveland's offense has started to wake up w/ 19 runs scored the last two games and while they're a hot team, KC is just the opposite as they've dropped 13 of 20 including 8 of 12. They are 4-6 after allowing 10+ runs in their previous game this season and Cleveland remains a deadly road team at 36-26 overall w/ just 3.9 runs per game allowed. 8* Cleveland |
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08-19-17 | Mariners v. Rays -109 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (6:10 ET): The Rays have now let me down each of the last two days, but here is where the slump will end. Last night's 7-1 loss means they have even more revenge to exact against the Mariners as the home team came into this series already looking a for a little "payback" for a three-game sweep they suffered out in Safeco Field back in early June. The chase for the second Wild Card spot in the American League remains very wide open w/ eight teams separated by only three games. Only one of the eight (Texas) currently has a positive run differential. So I reject the notion that Seattle is somehow significantly better here or even "matches up well" with Tampa Bay. Rather we have two comparable teams and I'll again try w/ the one that's at home and this time should enjoy a nice edge in the starting pitching department. The Rays' offense has admittedly been dreadful of late. They've managed only 24 runs in the last 14 games and six of those came in one game, their last win, which was Tuesday. But perhaps facing Ariel Miranda might begin to reverse their fortune at the plate? The Seattle starter checks in w/ an 8.21 ERA and 1.565 WHIP his L3 starts and he's allowed 4+ ER in all but one of his L6 starts. Last time out, Miranda had some major control issues as he walked six batters in a 4-2 loss to the Angels. Furthermore, the long ball has given him some trouble as he's allowed 8 HR's total his L4 starts. While he tossed a complete game against the Rays two months ago, remember that was at home. On the road, he has an ERA of 6.25 and a WHIP of 1.407. The fact that his TSR is 8-4 away from home should be considered very lucky. In yday's analysis, I spoke of the notion that TB's production w/ RISP is bound to start moving to the mean. Over those L24 games, Rays' hitters are now an almost unfathomable 8 for 84 (.095!) when they have RISP! Kevin Kiermaier returned to the lineup last night, batting leadoff, and while it made little difference, I expect that to change moving forward. Kiermaier is also a difference-maker in the field. On the mound, the Rays will go w/ Jake Odorizzi, who is off a quality start as he held Toronto to just two runs and three hits in 6 IP on Sunday. Odorizzi was tagged for eight runs when he faced Seattle two months ago, but five of the runs were unearned. Since the All-Star Break, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in every start. Sure, he hasn't always pitched deep into games, but that's okay considering how the Rays' bullpen has performed recently. Following three or more losses, the team is 9-4 this season. 10* Tampa Bay |
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08-18-17 | Brewers v. Rockies -168 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Two playoff hopefuls will meet at Coors Field this weekend and while Milwaukee comes in having won four straight (and is the more "desperate" team), I give the edge to Colorado. As always, the Rockies are leading MLB in runs scored in home games and as a result they've gone 37-23 here. The Brew Crew started its week by sweeping Pittsburgh in a short two-game set at home before having yday off. But let us not be quick to forget that at this time last week, they were mired in a long losing streak, one that would reach six games before B2B wins over the lowly Reds. They got to play their last seven games at home - all against sub-.500 foes - and I think they'll find the Rockies to be pretty rude hosts this weekend; certainly tonight. The Rockies did play yday and got embarrassed (here at home), losing to Atlanta 10-4. But that came a day after a 17-2 win, remember. While their record is sub-par after allowing 10+ runs this year, I nevertheless see this as a big bounce back spot. Yes, I'm aware that Nolan Arenado seemed to reinjure his hand yday (X-rays turned out to be negative), but I just don't think you can keep an offense which averages 6.2 rpg at home down for long. Certainly not w/ Matt Garza on the mound. Milwaukee's starter for Friday has a 7.54 ERA and 1.814 WHIP his L3 starts and his career numbers here in Coors Field are certainly an even bigger concern. Garza has started three times here, lost every time, and his ERA is 8.82. His recent ground ball/fly ball and KW rates are certainly a reason for concern coming into tonight's game. Colorado will counter w/ German Marquez, who is certainly more comfortable pitching in this environment. In fact, he has a 7-2 TSR at home and a 1.278 WHIP. He's coming off his worst start of the second half, but I fully anticipate him bouncing back as prior to allowing five runs in Miami last week, Marquez had delivered SIX consecutive quality outings! These teams have not met since the 1st series of the year when Colorado took three of four at Miller Park. That set the tone for this surprising season from the Rockies, who are still #2 in net units (behind the Dodgers obviously) and fighting to host the NL Wild Card game come October. Milwaukee is actually third in net units, but they are also just 6-10 when riding a win streak of 3+ games. 8* Colorado |
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08-18-17 | Mariners v. Rays -125 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Certainly, it has not been a good stretch of baseball for the Rays, who find themselves rapidly sinking in the wide open chase for that second Wild Card in the American League. They held the coveted position at the All-Star Break, but have gone just 13-20 since then and have lost six of their last seven. After a four-game stay in Toronto (went 1-3), tonight they return home to face similarly slumping Seattle and will have revenge on their mind for a three-game sweep that took place at Safeco Field back in early June. Before beating Baltimore each of the L2 days, the Mariners had lost five in a row themselves and while this is a .500 team (61-61), they've actually been outscored by a slightly wider margin this year than have the Rays. The road has been particularly unkind to tonight's starter Erasmo Ramirez. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on the Rays Thurs afternoon. They were tied w/ Toronto 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth, which is when they allowed a two-run HR to Justin Smoak. It was a very disappointing loss in the sense that they actually outhit the Jays (11-6), but ended up stranding 14 runners on base. I did mention how offense (or rather lack of it!) has been a concern for this club of late as the last 13 games have seen them score only 23 runs while being shutout FIVE different times! That's obviously not good, but hope could be on the horizon in the form of the pitcher they face this evening. As mentioned above, Erasmo Ramirez has really struggled on the road this year as he's winless in five starts to go along w/ a 10.35 ERA and 1.950 WHIP. Not only did Tampa Bay lose close yday, but before that their previous three losses had all come by one-run margins. So they're "due" for some good fortune to go their way, at least in my estimation. Masked by the poor offensive performance is the fact that their bullpen has been outstanding this month, in particular Steve Cishek, who ironically came to the team from Seattle in a trade that included Ramirez! While Ramirez will be motivated here, his road struggles are too pronounced to overcome. TB counters w/ Austin Pruitt, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in his L3 starts. Take away one bad showing at Yankee Stadium on 7.28 and Pruitt has allowed only four runs in 20 IP this year. He's had to go up against some brutal competition recently, namely Dallas Keuchel, Chris Sale and Corey Kluber (all former Cy Young winners!), so dueling w/ Ramirez should be a "walk in the park" for him. I have to believe that the Rays hitting is bound to improve, specifically their horrid .105 mark w/ RISP (8 for 76) those L23 games. As you may now, a team's batting average when RISP will always tend to float back towards the mean. 10* Tampa Bay |
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08-17-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates -135 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Both of these NL Central rivals are reeling as they start a critical weekend set in the Steel City. St. Louis was as hot as any team in baseball (won 8 straight from 8.5 - 8.12), but that changed once they had to deal w/ the Red Sox, who beat them both Tuesday and Wednesday. Last night was particularly painful as they blew a four-run lead, giving up three runs in the ninth. As for the Pirates, they've now lost four in a row after getting swept in a short two-game set at Milwaukee. Tonight marks a return home though after a seven-game trip that also saw them have to play in two unfamiliar, American League venues. Alarms were set off for me in this series opener as there's been a key line move on the Bucs, who I'll back here. Adam Wainwright has been getting it done for many years now in the Cards rotation and he comes into tonight having allowed 3 ER or less in five straight starts. He's won his last five decisions. But that WL record is a tad bit misleading when you consider Wainwright has lasted a total of just eight innings his L2 starts, posting a 1-8 KW ratio (not a misprint!). He also has not pitched well - at all - on the road this season. Despite a 6-5 TSR, he has a 7.00 ERA and 1.666 WHIP away from Busch Stadium. So he should be thankful to have that team start record and really the fact that the team is 14-8 in all of his starts this year seems pretty fortunate considering his numbers. He also didn't throw a single pitch above 90 MPH his last time out due to elbow soreness. Speaking of fortunate, Wainwright is 13-7 all-time vs. Pittsburgh (29 starts) despite a 4.11 ERA. In 16 games at PNC Park, his ERA is 5.23. Pittsburgh also blew a four-run lead yday, losing 7-6 to Milwaukee. They outhit the Brewers and benefited from two errors, but the long ball (FIVE Brew Crew HR's!) doomed them. Fortunately, tonight's starter Jameson Taillon has allowed a home run in only three of his past 11 starts and just four total during that time. Taillon beat Wainwright back on 6.23 after allowing just two runs on four hits. He wasn't as sharp against the Cards last month here at home, but his offense also failed to score for him that day. It's been B2B quality starts from Taillon, who has allowed just 4 ER in 12 1/3 IP and his KW ratio (15-3) is far superior to that of Wainwright. 10* Pittsburgh |
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08-17-17 | Rays -154 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -154 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): The Rays entered the All-Star Break sitting in pole position for that second Wild Card in the American League. By no means was that race over though and sure enough, it is now wide open as not only have they struggled in the 2nd half, but a bevy of teams have also stepped up. Right now, they are two games below .500, which fortunately only has them 2.5 games back (of the Angels). They've lost two of three so far here in Toronto, but thankfully will have Chris Archer on the bump for this afternoon's finale. The Jays may now be just a game back of TB, but their playoff chances remain slim in my opinion as they'd have to jump SIX teams! Also, their YTD run differential is -78, third worst in the A.L., indicating that they're fortunate to even be sniffing .500. I like Archer and the Rays to leave the Great White North w/ a series split. Coming into the year, I felt Archer was poised for a big bounce back from a disappointing 2016. He finished dead last in net units (-15.6), but I rightly felt that was not indicative of the pitcher's overall skill set. Sure enough, Archer enjoyed plenty of success early on in '17, though his team start record his L6 starts is just 2-4. That said, he's still managed to allow 3 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts and last time out marked the 1st time in the L15 starts he didn't make it a full six innings. He's got a 3.13 lifetime ERA vs. Toronto and his last time pitching here at Rogers Centre (4.30) saw him allow just one run and four hits, in 7 1/3 IP. In three starts vs. the Jays this year, he's allowed just six runs in 21 IP, but has yet to factor into any decision. Admittedly, Archer may have to be at his best today b/c the Rays simply are not hitting much. They've scored two runs or less in 8 of the past 12 games, going just 3-9. They've been shutout five times during this stretch. Last night's 3-2 loss saw them strand nine runners on base though as they went 0 for 6 w/ RISP. This slump can't go on forever though and I see the potential for them breaking out here against Chris Rowley, who will be making just his 2nd career start. The West Point (Army) grad got to face a National League lineup (Pirates) in his first start and allowed just one run in 5 1/3 IP. Dealing w/ an AL lineup here, I expect things to be a bit more challenging. To me, a real key in handicapping this matchup is that despite Toronto's winning record at home (32-29), they have actually been outscored somewhat significantly here. In fact, only three teams have been outscored by a larger rpg average at home than have the Jays. 8* Tampa Bay |
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08-16-17 | Reds v. Cubs -192 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Reds upset the Cubs last night, 2-1 (as +145 ML underdogs), in a game where all the scoring took place in the eighth inning or later. I don't see that happening two days in a row. As you may have guessed, the Cubs have generally had the Reds' number in recent years, winning 35 of the past 49 meetings. They may be only 7-4 against their NL Central rival this year, yet it's still a sizable 13 game edge in the standings. Cincinnati is the lone team out of contention in the division and is one of just five teams in baseball to have been outscored by over 100 runs over the course of the season. The money line is higher tonight, significant because the Reds are 1-9 as a road underdog of +175 or higher. As you probably know, the Cubs' season has largely been considered a disappointment. They're bottom three in net units (-19.3), but remember that any/all disappointnnent and the poor performance at the betting window is a direct result of being measured against LY's incredible level of play. Here in the 2nd half of the season, our reigning World Series Champs have generally "turned it around" as they closed July on a 13-3 run. Success w/ John Lackey on the hill goes back even further. The team has won each of Lackey's L6 starts. He'll be on the mound tonight. In all of those last 6 starts, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer. Let's not forget that the Cubs won Monday's series opener, 15-5, either. The Reds will counter Lackey w/ veteran Homer Bailey. How is this guy still drawing a paycheck? He has an 8.31 ERA and 2.035 WHIP in his 10 starts this year. Somehow, the team has managed to win four of those, including two of the last three despite comparable numbers to the season. He was bailed out by his offense in an 11-10 win over Milwaukee his last time out and the start before that saw him get hammered for 10 runs in just 3 1/3 IP. It was his third time in the last six starts giving up at least seven runs. Let's also be sure to note the fact that the Reds' run differential is -1.3 per game on the road. That's tied for 2nd worst in all of baseball and they are tied for the MOST runs per game allowed. Yes, this is every bit the mismatch you think it is. 6* Chi Cubs |
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08-15-17 | Indians -166 v. Twins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:10 ET): This will be the Tribe's third city in three days (Tampa Bay, Boston), but don't think that will bother them as they've been rolling w/ four straight wins, including 7-3 in Fenway Park (make-up game) Monday night. Prior to that, they'd won three in a row in Tampa, including two shutouts. The pitching staff is now at full strength w/ Danny Salazar back in the fold and that is who will pitch Tuesday in Minnesota. This is a revenge spot for the Indians, who were swept last month (at home) by the Twins. But, curiously, Cleveland has been better on the road this year as their record is 33-25 and they've outscored foes by 0.6 rpg. The Twins, meanwhile, have been a horrid home team as they've been outscored by a full run per game, going 27-33. Cleveland is actually a perfect 7-0 here at Target Field this season! These teams have played 12 times in 2017 and the road team has won 11 of them. Maybe that's not too surprising considering both teams have better records on the road than at home. The Twins have the worst home run differential in the American League as they're giving up an average of 5.7 runs per game. That's easily the most in all of baseball. Strange as it may be to hear, there actually appears to be a "road team advantage" in this AL Central rivalry. Salazar has a 1.96 ERA his L3 starts. Sadly, the team has lost the last two times he's taken the mound, but don't blame the pitcher for that. He's allowed just two runs and has 20 K's in 12 1/3 IP. Since returning to the rotation, he's allowed only FOUR runs in 25 1/3 IP and has 36 IP. Those are really good numbers, obviously. Earlier this year, Salazar beat Minnesota (here at Targe Field, of course) by allowing just one run in six innings. Pitching opposite him today will be veteran Bartolo Colon. The portly southpaw broke in w/ Cleveland two decades ago and while he's enjoyed a successful career, he's no longer the pitcher he once was. Yes, he did throw seven shutout innings his last time out and a complete game before that, but he has a 6.77 ERA and 1.622 WHIP for the year (18 starts) and given all that I've told you so far, it should not come as a surprise to see the numbers get WORSE at home. 8* Cleveland |
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08-15-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -114 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:40 ET): Last month (7/17-7/20), the Pirates swept a four-game series from the Brewers. That seemed to signal a renaissance for the Bucs, who at the time had climbed back to .500. But their mediocre string of baseball has instead continued as they're now back two games below (.500) and in fourth place of the wide open NL Central. Compared to the three teams above them, their run differential is clearly inferior as it's "in the red" (negative) whereas the other three teams have all outscored the opposition this season. One of them is obviously Milwaukee, who spent much of the year in first place. But getting swept by the Bucs signaled a clear downturn here as they're 9-18 their L27 games. But I like the revenge angle here in this short two-game set and following B2B wins, feel the Brew Crew may be back on track. Milwaukee had lost six in a row prior to beating Cincinnati both Saturday and Sunday. The offense definitely woke up against the Reds, scoring 23 times in the three games. That's a good sign going up against the Pirates' Ivan Nova, who has a 5.71 ERA and 1.616 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Nova was hit hard, giving up six runs and 10 hits. While it would be easy to blame that performance on being in an AL park, Nova had also allowed 4+ ER his previous three starts and two of those were against San Diego, the worst offensive team in the sport. When he faced Milwaukee last month, part of that four-game sweep, obviously Nova won. But he also was lucky to give up only three runs as he allowed 10 hits over the six innings. Pitching here for Milwaukee will be Zach Davies. He too was terrible his last time out, giving up seven runs and 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings. But the difference between he and Nova was that Davies has been pitching well previously. In fact, "well" would be putting it mildly. It was four consecutive quality starts, going seven innings or more every time and he allowed just four runs TOTAL. He had gone 6-1 w/ a 2.38 ERA in his eight starts prior to the last one. Davies did pitch in the last series between these teams and pitched well, giving up just one run (unearned) in 7 IP. I'm a big believer in the revenge angle here and Milwaukee has simply been better at home this year. They also have the better starter. Add it up and it's a win! 8* Milwaukee |
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08-15-17 | Giants -106 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (7:10 ET): In what's been a disastrous season for the team, Madison Bumgarner has had either "no" or "bad" luck. Despite a 2.71 ERA and 1.025 WHIP, he has a 2-8 TSR. One of those wins did come last time out however as he allowed only five hits in 7 IP and one run - on a solo HR. Over his L3 starts, he has a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP, having given up three runs and just 15 hits in 21 IP. While he missed three full months this season due to a dirtbike accident, Bumgarner has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his 10 starts. I feel he should extend that streak here against a Marlins team that is prime fade material right now off four straight wins. The Giants also have revenge, not just for last night, but for a three-game sweep that occurred right before the All-Star Break. Giancarlo Stanton homered again last night (43rd, team record) in Miami's 8-3 win. It was a 3-3 game after three innings, but from there the Giants didn't score again while the Marlins added five more. Incredibly, Stanton has now hit 22 times in the last 34 games. But like his team's recent bout of success, I do not believe that to be sustainable. Prior to last night's win, Miami was just 2-8 this year when on a win streak of three games or more. The Fish have been outscored at home this year and their longest win streak of the year is four games - so winning again would be "foreign territory." Dan Straily will start today for Miami. Like Bumgarner, he's pitched better than the team start record suggests, just not as well as Bumgarner. The Marlins have lost each of the past six times Straily has started and he's failed to make it past the sixth inning in any of the starts. Personally, he's gone 0-4 w/ a 5.17 ERA during the span. The only issue Bumgarner has faced is a lack of run support w/ the Giants scoring one run or less in half of his starts. I project they'll fare far better against Straily tonight and thus beat the Marlins for the 1st time in '17. 8* San Francisco |
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08-14-17 | Orioles -112 v. Mariners | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (10:10 ET): In the American League, there are four clear top teams - Houston, Cleveland, Boston and the Yankees. All have run differentials of +90 or higher. But - as you know - FIVE teams make the playoffs per league and it is that 5th spot that's WIDE open right now in the AL. Really, only three teams - Oakland, the White Sox and Detroit - should consider themselves out of that race. Everybody else (7 teams!) is separated by just four games entering play on Monday. Two of those teams face off here as both Baltimore and Seattle look to bounce back from disappointing weekends. The Orioles are 3-4 on their current West Coast swing (lost in Oakland yday) and their 58-60 record is somewhat misleading in that they've been outscored this year by 49 runs. But there's no sugarcoating just how disastrous the weekend was here in Seattle as the Mariners were swept by the division rival Angels (4 games) and lost James Paxton to injury in the process. I like the pitching matchup from the O's perspective today and think they'll take the series opener. Sure, Seattle outhit the Angels each of the past two games, but they managed runs only in the 1st and 9th innings yday and the bullpen was just awful throughout the series. You should figure to see the bullpen pretty early tonight given Yovani Gallardo is starting. Gallardo has gone five innings or fewer in four of his last five starts and the one exception saw him go just 5 2/3. Looking back through his season, there's been just ONE time all season where the M's won a game w/ Gallardo on the mound where they scored fewer than six runs. Given recent offensive production, we are highly unlikely to see them score six runs tonight. Meanwhile, the Baltimore offense is near the top of the league in scoring since the All-Star Break. That's bad news for Gallardo, who already has a 6.61 ERA and 1.573 WHIP when pitching here at Safeco Field. Kevin Gausman goes for the Orioles here and he's been in good form lately. Well, his last start saw him give up four runs, but he'd only allowed two in the four starts prior. Other than his 3 HR's allowed in those L5 starts, Gausman has allowed just two runs in 27 IP. He has a 3.20 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mariners. Seattle has played very poorly at home at times this season and right now is definitely one of those times. With a struggling starter, a struggling bullpen and an offense that managed just 13 runs in the L4 games, the M's just don't have a lot to "lean on" here. 10* Baltimore |
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Bryan Power MLB Top Money Lines Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-11-18 | Mariners -137 v. Royals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
04-10-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -172 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
04-10-18 | Astros -150 v. Twins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
04-09-18 | Tigers v. Indians -188 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
04-09-18 | Rays -128 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals -157 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
04-08-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -147 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -147 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
04-07-18 | Mariners v. Twins -151 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -151 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
04-06-18 | Braves v. Rockies -145 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
04-04-18 | Cardinals -120 v. Brewers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
04-03-18 | Indians v. Angels -137 | Top | 2-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
04-03-18 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -181 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
04-02-18 | Twins v. Pirates -115 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
04-01-18 | Cardinals -125 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
03-29-18 | Cardinals v. Mets -138 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
03-29-18 | Cubs -185 v. Marlins | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -158 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10-29-17 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -140 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10-28-17 | Dodgers +111 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 111 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros -128 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -163 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 17 m | Show |
10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -114 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians -177 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -177 | 33 h 0 m | Show |
10-08-17 | Indians -108 v. Yankees | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
10-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -262 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -166 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
09-29-17 | A's v. Rangers -114 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
09-29-17 | Dodgers -106 v. Rockies | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
09-28-17 | A's v. Rangers +105 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
09-27-17 | Reds v. Brewers -156 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -156 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
09-27-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -182 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
09-26-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -155 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
09-26-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals -113 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
09-26-17 | Reds v. Brewers -187 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
09-25-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -165 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
09-25-17 | Cubs v. Cardinals -122 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -122 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
09-25-17 | Nationals v. Phillies -128 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -128 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
09-24-17 | Rangers +106 v. A's | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
09-22-17 | Rangers +122 v. A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
09-21-17 | Cubs -136 v. Brewers | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
09-20-17 | Cardinals -157 v. Reds | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
09-20-17 | A's -116 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
09-19-17 | Indians v. Angels -108 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
09-19-17 | White Sox v. Astros -215 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
09-18-17 | Red Sox +100 v. Orioles | Top | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
09-18-17 | Twins v. Yankees -163 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
09-17-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
09-14-17 | Blue Jays v. Twins -158 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
09-14-17 | A's v. Red Sox -200 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
09-13-17 | Astros v. Angels -114 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
09-13-17 | A's v. Red Sox -187 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -187 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
09-12-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -160 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
09-12-17 | A's v. Red Sox -166 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
09-10-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -183 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -183 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
09-08-17 | Angels v. Mariners -121 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
09-08-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals -169 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
09-08-17 | Yankees -156 v. Rangers | Top | 5-11 | Loss | -156 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -166 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -166 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
09-06-17 | Angels v. A's +116 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 116 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
09-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -149 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
09-04-17 | Yankees v. Orioles -126 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
09-03-17 | Angels -127 v. Rangers | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
09-03-17 | Rays -161 v. White Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -161 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
09-02-17 | A's v. Mariners -136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
09-01-17 | Nationals v. Brewers -137 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
08-30-17 | Rays v. Royals -138 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -138 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
08-30-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -115 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
08-29-17 | A's v. Angels -153 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
08-29-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -141 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
08-29-17 | Mets v. Reds -157 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
08-28-17 | A's v. Angels -167 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
08-27-17 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -183 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
08-27-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
08-26-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -171 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
08-25-17 | Rangers v. A's -123 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
08-25-17 | Padres v. Marlins -148 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels -124 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
08-24-17 | Twins -173 v. White Sox | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -173 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
08-23-17 | Rangers v. Angels -143 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
08-23-17 | Padres v. Cardinals -164 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
08-23-17 | Red Sox v. Indians -182 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -182 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
08-22-17 | Rangers v. Angels -130 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
08-22-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays -190 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
08-21-17 | Rangers v. Angels -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
08-20-17 | Indians -145 v. Royals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
08-20-17 | Mariners v. Rays -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
08-20-17 | Marlins v. Mets -158 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -158 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
08-19-17 | Indians -130 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
08-19-17 | Mariners v. Rays -109 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
08-18-17 | Brewers v. Rockies -168 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
08-18-17 | Mariners v. Rays -125 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
08-17-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates -135 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
08-17-17 | Rays -154 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -154 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
08-16-17 | Reds v. Cubs -192 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
08-15-17 | Indians -166 v. Twins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
08-15-17 | Pirates v. Brewers -114 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
08-15-17 | Giants -106 v. Marlins | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
08-14-17 | Orioles -112 v. Mariners | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |