Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-07-16 | North Dakota State +2 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* North Dakota State (7:00 ET): I'm going back to North Dakota State, who was a nice winner for me Sunday, beating IUPUI handily (60-45 as 5-pt chalk). As I mentioned in my analysis yday, the Bison are the top defensive team in the Summit League, a fact that will not be lost on tonight's opponent. IPFW, the top seed in this tournament, was held to season-lows of 46 points and 28.1% shooting the last time they faced NDSU and I'm proud to say that I was on the right side of that one as well. Though the Mastodons do have the edge of one extra day to prepare (their quarterfinal game was Saturday), I keep coming back to the fact that their ATS record (nation's best) of 21-6 is due to regress. Take the points & I wouldn't be surprised to see an outright upset obviously. What was a close game at the half yday was broken open by NDSU, who held IUPUI to just three made field goals over the final 16 minutes! Again, just to rehash from yday's analysis, the Bison are holding opponents below 65 PPG for the year (top 25 nationally!). Sunday's win improved them to 17-1 SU this season when holding the opposition under 70 points. Also, I'd like to reiterate that this team has won the Summit League Tournament each of the last two years. They do an excellent job of not fouling much (under 16 per game) and protecting the basketball (only 10 turnovers per game). In the last meeting w/ IFPW, they held the Mastodons to just 9 of 32 shooting from two-point range! IPFW has been quite lucky this year as they are 13-2 SU in games decided by six points or less. Both losses came to rival IUPUI and I was on the last one, which was the regular season finale. Yes, they "got me back" w/ an 86-70 win over South Dakota in the quarterfinals. But they were able to shoot better than 50% from the field there, including 12 made three-pointers. I do not see a repeat of that taking place here. Even in their win over North Dakota State during the regular season (at home), they shot just 42.4% overall and won by only five. They are actually favored by more here (in a neutral setting) than they were at home. That's a mistake by the linesmakers. 10* North Dakota State |
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03-06-16 | North Dakota State -4 v. IUPU-Indianapolis | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* North Dakota State (7:00 ET): This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Summit League, which saw the top two seeds advance to the semis yesterday. This is the 4-5 matchup (winner moves on to play top seed IPFW) and perhaps you may find it curious that the lower seeded team is favored here. But IUPUI is by no means a strong team, so I can't say that I'm surprised at the number, even though I took the Jaguars last Saturday when they came away w/ an 80-77 upset of rival IPFW. But that was a home game and the fact is this team is still only 13-18 SU for the season, including just four wins away from home. I really like North Dakota State in this spot. Lay the short number. Now, it was not a particularly strong end to the regular season for NDSU. They did beat IUPUI, 63-59 here at home, but failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Then, they dropped B2B road games, first to Denver, then to South Dakota State. The Bison scored only 59 points in both games, which is well below their season average, and I see them bouncing back offensively here against a IUPUI team that has allowed five of its last six opponents to score at least 76 points. Also, remember that the Bison are two-time defending Summit League Tournament champions, so they know how to get the job done here in Sioux Falls. While they did not cover either regular season matchup vs. IUPUI this year, note that they easily could have covered both. They were in position for the win and cover back on January 31st in Indianapolis when the Jaguars' Jordan Pickett nailed a three-pointer w/ just 2.3 seconds remaining giving his team the 73-72 decision (as one-point dogs). Then, two weeks ago in Fargo, the Bison were up by as many as 15 in the second half before things got close at the end. I still believe in NDSU's defense, which was tops in the Summit League, holding teams to just 65 points per game (29th nationally). This team doesn't foul often (15.9 times per game) and takes good care of the basketball (just 10.6 turnovers per game) and the fact that IUPUI only averages 63.8 PPG away from home is great because the Bison are 16-1 SU this season when allowing fewer than 70 points! 10* North Dakota State |
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03-06-16 | Blazers v. Pistons | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:05 ET): The Pistons are off a pretty embarrassing loss last night. I know because I happened to be on the other side (Knicks), who beat them outright 102-89 as seven-point dogs. That result, combined w/ Chicago's win over Houston (which I was also on the right side of!) now has Detroit outside the top eight in the Eastern Conference (one-half game back of the Bulls). They can make up that discrepancy tonight though w/ a win over the Blazers, who have been hot recently, but also will be playing their sixth consecutive road game out East. They (Portland) got me last Sunday w/ an upset over Indiana, but they've had to play three times since then and it's fair to question what they have "left in the tank" for the final game of the trip. I've said it before, but Detroit is not a good shooting team and that issue has hurt them in each of the last two games where they've been below 40% from the field. Of course, it hasn't helped that their opponents both shot above 50% as well. I went against the Pistons both times (cashed the Spurs Wednesday, 97-81), so this is definitely "reversing course" for me. What's the difference? Well, it's pretty obvious. Now they're back at home where their record is a healthy 18-11 SU and 18-10-1 ATS. That's a far cry from 13-20 SU/ATS on the road and a big reason for that discrepancy is on the offensive end. They average 104.9 PPG here at home while shooting a more respectable 45% from the floor. It also bears mentioning that coming off an outright loss as a favorite, the Pistons are 10-2 ATS this season. Portland had won 14 of 16 before dropping its last two, which is the first losing streak the team has been on in nearly two months. I realize a lot has changed since the early part of the season, but I can't help but go back to the fact the Blazers were only two-point favorites (at home) over Detroit in November and lost that game straight up. Given that result and the change in venue, it stands to reason that the Pistons should be favored by a greater margin this evening. My own personal power ratings suggest that they should be laying 2.5 points in this one, so there's some value right there and again this is Portland's sixth straight road game in a nine day span. 10* Detroit |
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03-05-16 | Rockets v. Bulls +1 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:35 ET): My goodness, what has happened to Bulls under Fred Hoiberg? The easy answer would be "injuries" as Joakim Noah (out for the season), Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler have all missed significant time. The good news here is that it looks like Butler is probable to return (Rose is a definite) and that makes the team look like a really solid value in this price range against the disappointing Rockets. As upset as Chicago fans may be over the won-loss record, Houston fans have to be feeling a lot worse as their team is a game below .500 and in danger of not even making the playoffs in the top-heavy West. Their defense is downright disgraceful, particularly on the road, where they give up 109.1 points per game. After covering their first four games after the All-Star Break, Chicago has failed to cover its last four, failing to cover in each loss as well. They lost 102-89 in Orlando Wednesday, shooting just 38.4% in the process. Assuming Butler does return tonight, he would provide a massive lift offensively as he is the team leader w/ 22.4 points per game. He's also perhaps the team's best defender as well w/o Noah being out. Defense has been the issue with Butler out as the Bulls last 15 opponents have all gone over 100 points. I can say for certain that offense won't be an issue here against the defensively inept Rockets. Houston had its troubles offensively on Wednesday, missing 32 of 35 three-point attempts! Yet, somehow, they still won at home over New Orleans, 100-95. That marked the first time in eight games that Houston allowed less than 100 points. Like I said earlier and then reiterated, the Rockets are really bad defensively on the road, giving up 109.1 PPG. In games where they allow 100 or more points, the Rockets are just 17-28 SU. Chicago comes in averaging 101.5 PPG on the season. Overall, Houston has been one of the worst performing teams against the pointspread, going 26-35 ATS in all games. 8* Chicago |
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03-05-16 | Louisville v. Virginia -5 | Top | 46-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
8* Virginia (8:30 ET): This line caught me a little bit "off-guard" at first. But then, I remembered two things. The first is how Virginia completely destroyed Louisville in the first meeting, 63-47, holding the Cardinals to just 14 first half points! The second is that "this is it" for Louisville, the final game of the season, due to the self-imposed postseason bad. Motivation could really be lacking in this spot, especially after a narrow win in the final home game for the departing seniors earlier in the week. The Cardinals simply aren't very good on the road to begin with (just 2-8 ATS), so visiting the team that handed them their worst loss of the season doesn't sound very promising. Lay the points. Virginia has plenty of motivation here. The Cavs are gunning for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a win here, plus losses by both Miami and North Carolina would give them a share of the ACC regular season crown. Miami visits Va Tech while UNC has to play at Duke, so by tip-off, there's a good chance the team will know its own fate. UNC losing at Duke is a distinct possibility, leaving UVA the chance to "sneak up" at take second place in the conference at worst. This is a team that's perfect (14-0) straight up at home this year and won 10 of its last 12. The only two losses came by a total of four points. I mentioned earlier that Louisville hasn't been very good on the road this year. In addition to being just 2-8 ATS, they are 5-6 straight up. Turns out that the easy non-conference sked (which included ZERO "true" road games) probably had the Cardinals overrated. Obviously, the self-imposed ban has had a negative effect on the team, particularly the two who transferred here to compete for a National Title. There have actually been some close games this year where Louisville didn't really play well and the result could have been worse. It's tough for me to say this, but I'm basically calling for a L'ville "no show" in this one. 8* Virginia |
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03-05-16 | Iowa +1.5 v. Michigan | Top | 71-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* Iowa (8:00 ET): Normally, I don't play road teams in College Hoops. Just look at most team's records at home and compare them to the record on the road and you'll see why. But here, I make an exception. This is due to Iowa suffering a shocking four consecutive outright defeats, the most recent occurring at home against Indiana Tuesday night. Here, they travel to Ann Arbor to face a Michigan team that's also off a loss, one where they scored only 57 points against Wisconsin. Iowa has already beaten the Wolverines once this season, 82-71 in Iowa City and while I may not necessarily disagree with this line, I do think desperation starts to set in with the Hawkeyes and they come through in a major way tonight. Iowa was, at one point, 19-4 straight up and rated among the top ten teams in the country. No more as, like I said, the Hawkeyes have lost four in a row (all as favorites) and actually failed to cover six in a row. Their one win in the last six games was a narrow one against a poor Minnesota team. It should be pointed out, however, that every loss has been close. In fact, three of the last four have come by four points or less. It's not like Michigan is playing well either as the Wolverines have dropped five of their last eight and three of four. The losses have been on the road, but earlier in the year they did lose here at home to both Indiana and Michigan State. Probably, Iowa was not as good as it looked at the start of the season, which included a sweep of Michigan State. But they are not as bad as they looked of late either. Similarly, Michigan started 17-5 SU overall including 7-2 in conference play before falling off. Most of Michigan's Big 10 wins have come against the sub-.500 teams as season sweeps of Minnesota and Penn State account for four wins, plus there was Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska and hideous Rutgers. Even at home, I do not see them beating a team the caliber of Iowa. 10* Iowa |
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03-05-16 | Pistons v. Knicks +6 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
8* New York (7:05 ET): It was another loss for the Knicks last night, although this one closer than expected as they fell 105-104 in Boston as 10-pt underdogs. That was a pretty painful result considering they led by as many as eight in the fourth quarter, which was just a 17-point period for them. They've now dropped 12 out of their last 14 games to fall well out of contention in the Eastern Conference as they trail eighth place Detroit by seven full games (eight in the loss column) and that's who they'll play tonight, here at home. Taking a more than generous number, I'll endorse New York as a home dog in this spot as my own personal power ratings indicate that this line should be much closer to a pick 'em. The Pistons are also off a loss here, theirs coming Wednesday night in San Antonio by a score of 97-81. I was on the Spurs there, noting that Detroit was "in over its head" there even as a double digit dog. This is not a particularly great road team as is evident by their 13-19 SU record outside of the Motor City. They are being outscored by three points per game in such affairs and another issue I have with this team is their poor overall shooting as only the Lakers are worse in terms of "true shooting," which weighs free throws and three-pointers. For the season, they shoot just 42.5% on the road, so it should not be that big of a surprise that they are 0-3 ATS as a road favorite of -3.5 to -6 points. If you want to talk line value, then consider that when these teams met just last month, Detroit was only a 4.5-point favorite - at home. They were asked to lay only 1.5 in their only other visit to the Big Apple this season - and lost! That loss dropped the Pistons to just 10-23 ATS their L33 games here at MSG. The Knicks, who are now below .500 at home this year, do have a winning ATS record when taking points this season and it looks as if we've reached the point where clearly they are being undervalued (started the year surprisingly strong). Playing the second of back to back games, they are 7-6 ATS this season. 8* New York |
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03-05-16 | Pacers +2 v. Wizards | Top | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers didn't work out for me last night as they were outscored 28-19 in the fourth quarter by the red-hot Hornets and it was the first time in franchise history that they were swept in a season series by Charlotte. Because they lost, it is a much better value tonight in D.C. and the Wizards team they are taking on here also happened to lose Friday, by 25 in Cleveland. I would not have Washington favored in this spot, even at home, as my own personal power ratings have this one basically a pick em due to the fact the Wiz are just a .500 proposition (straight up!) at home this season. Indiana is 24-13 ATS vs. the rest of the Eastern Conference and taking points they are a strong value. The road team has won each of the two previous meetings these two have had. The first was here in Washington w/ the Pacers winning 123-106 (+3). The Wizards then returned the favor in January, 118-104, but if you look at the seven-point line for that contest, it indicates that that the Wizards probably shouldn't be favored here, even as the home team. Again, they're only 16-16 SU at the Verizon Center due to giving up 103.9 points per game. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS their last seven visits here. With a visit to San Antonio on deck, followed by a two-game trip to Dallas and Atlanta, it is imperative that Indiana gets the win here. They are currently only seventh in the East, just 1.5 games up on the 10th place Wizards, who have been the hotter team as of late. But as good as the Wiz's recent record has been, consider that two of the wins were at Philadelphia's expense, another was against Minnesota and the other was vs. Cleveland when they didn't have LeBron. So take that four-game win streak w/ a grain of salt. They are still just 2-6 ATS their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record. 10* Indiana |
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03-05-16 | South Dakota +6 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 70-86 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* South Dakota (7:00 ET): I've been through this drill with IPFW (that's Indiana Purdue-Ft. Wayne) before, but in case this is your first time playing against them, I'll go through it again. The Mastodons have the best ATS record in the country (20-6 ATS), but lately (as you might expect) they've begun to regress. I first stepped out against them a few weeks ago when they visited North Dakota State and got blown out 62-46. They managed to get back on track after that, however (four straight wins), but then in the regular season finale I went against them again and they lost outright at rival IUPUI, 80-77. This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Summit League Tournament and I'll take the 8-seed (plus the points) over the 1-seed. Note that I did play against South Dakota just last Saturday (went 2 for 2 in the Summit!) as they lost to Western Illinois. Though South Dakota finished second to last in the Summit (9th place Western Illinois not in the tournament), there's an argument to be made that the Coyotes are better than that. There were four close losses by six points or less, two of them to two of the top three in the league. With the tournament taking place in South Dakota, that's a slight edge for the Coyotes here as well. When a team is 20-6 against the spread like IPFW is, eventually the linesmakers are going to catch up. That's what I expect to happen here. Note that they were NOT favored in the majority of their games this season. Clearly, the Mastodons are a team that overachieved and quite frankly they should feel lucky to be the top seed here as they won a tiebreaker over a much better South Dakota State team due to a head to head sweep of third place Omaha. With a chance to sew up first place all to themselves, this team lost outright to a pretty bad IUPUI team last week and that's a telling sign for what lies ahead, in my opinion. They have failed to cover two of the last three times they have been favored by at least six points, losing one of those games outright. 10* South Dakota |
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03-04-16 | Nets +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (9:05 ET): It just so happens that the Lakers were the last opponent for both the Nets and Nuggets. Denver had the benefit of playing them second (when LA was w/o rest), thus they were able to prevail 117-107 despite not having leading scorer Danilo Gallinari in the lineup. The previous night saw Brooklyn not be as fortunate as they lost 107-101 (actually closed as the favorite!) to the guys in purple and gold. Interesting though is there the Nets were the ones that were unrested and that probably had an effect. They'd been on a four-game ATS win streak prior to the Lakers loss and while they were DD dogs in three of those games, the fact is I like them plus the points here as like Brooklyn, Denver isn't trustworthy as a favorite. As a favorite, the Nuggets are only 3-6 ATS this year and that includes five outright losses. Now, they did obviously just cover at the Lakers expense Tuesday night, but we've already been through how that was a beneficial spot against an unrested foe. More pertinent to this matchup is the fact that not only did they not cover as favorites in Brooklyn last month, but actually lost outright. Now, they were only -2.5 and the final score was 105-104. But, it still speaks to the fact that laying points with one of the worst teams in the league probably isn't a good idea, especially since this time they are w/o Gallinari. Denver is actually 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 to -6 this year and that doesn't even include an outright loss (as 2.5-pt faves) to Sacramento here a little over a week ago. Curiously, despite the majority of tickets so far being written on the Nuggets, this number has come DOWN. You know what that means (smart money alert!). The Nets have actually beaten the Nuggets four straight times. While it was a close game last month, the last two meetings here in Denver were both blowouts as Brooklyn has prevailed by an average of 25.5 points per game. That's pretty staggering. Sure, with this being the Nets' fifth straight road game, the natural inclination is to fade them, but that's hard to do here with Denver allowing an average of 111 PPG its last five home games. DJ Augustin is due to cool off for them. The Nets are a surprising 17-10 ATS vs. the Western Conference this season. 8* Brooklyn |
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03-04-16 | Knicks v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): The Knicks have been a complete dumpster fire under Kurt Rambis as the team is now 2-11 straight up its last 13 games and they were just blown out (105-84) at home by Portland on Tuesday. We have Phil Jackson comparing Steph Curry to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf and Carmelo Anthony directing chants of "refund" to owner James Dolan. So clearly whatever goodwill the team had built up during its surprisingly decent start to the season is now long gone and tonight I expect the struggles to continue. In many ways, the Knicks are a tailor-made opponent for the Celtics as games where the O/U line is 210+ points, the guys in green are a remarkable 13-3-1 ATS/15-2 SU and it's not just this year that they've excelled when the linesmakers think the game might be high-scoring. They're 24-6 ATS in that situation in three years under HC Brad Stevens. Lay the points here. While New York may be floundering, Boston is surging thanks to four consecutive wins. Out of nowhere, this has become one of the better offensive teams in the entire league. They've topped 100 pts in 23 of the last 25 games, including Wednesday's 116-93 romp over the same Blazers team that had just blown out New York the previous night. Interestingly, one of the two games where the C's failed to score triple digits was against these Knicks. But they more than made up for it by allowing only 89 pts in what turned out to be an eight-point victory on the road. Considering they were laying 4.5 points in that game, the line should be higher here. Rarely are the Celtics asked to lay double digits (only twice against the Sixers), but keep in mind that only six teams in the league (Spurs, Warriors, Thunder, Clippers, Cavs and Raptors) are outscoring opponents by a wider margin per 100 possessions. The only other time in the last 25 games that Boston was held below 100 pts was at Utah, who is one of the better defensive teams in the league. They just had a rematch with the Jazz Monday and hit the triple-digit benchmark right on the nose. Save for a win over Minnesota, the Knicks have been routinely torched defensively on the road and are giving up more than 105 PPG their L5 games overall. Meanwhile, Boston's defense has been great the L3 games and they've won 12 in a row here at home. 8* Boston |
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03-04-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -7.5 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
10* Toledo (7:00 ET): This is not only a revenge spot for UT, but also Senior Night and their last chance to "stop the bleeding" before next week's MAC Tournament. Back to back outright losses, to Central & Western Michigan, have the Rockets reeling right now and another loss here could result in them finishing as low as fifth in the West Division. Or they could possibly finish as high as third. It's all about taking care of an Eastern Michigan squad that beat them earlier this year, 91-85, a game where the Eagles shot a preposterous 68% from the field. Yes, you read that correctly. Needless to say, I don't see "history repeating itself" here as the Eagles are significantly worse on the road due to their awful defense. Lay the points in this one. Lost in Toledo losing the first meeting is that they themselves shot the ball; 50.8% overall including 7 of 17 from three-point range. They finished w/ 85 points. But it wasn't nearly enough as Eastern Michigan made 34 of the 50 field goal attempts they took including an incredible 11 of 16 three-pointers. The thing is, Toledo isn't generally that bad of a defensive team. Here at home, they are allowing just 68 PPG (71.3 PPG allowed overall). Without question, it was the Rockets' worst effort of the season on that end of the floor. Conversely, it was not just EMU's best offensive performance of the season, but also the best any Eagles team has shot in program history. There's no real way to explain what happened on February 20th except to say "it was one of those games." Take the Eagles outside of Ypsilanti and they are simply not a very good basketball team. They are 3-11 ATS (3-10 SU) in road games. We've already established that the offense is guaranteed to decline from the first meeting, but what about EMU's defense? Well, in their last road game they gave up 115 points and lost by 36 at Ball State. Defense has been an issue all season for this team as they allow 84.4 PPG away from home. Thanks to a three-pointer w/ just 24 seconds remaining, the Eagles were able to pull out a close win (at home) over Northern Illinois on Tuesday. But they are just 2-5 SU and ATS coming off a conference win this year. While Eastern Michigan was winning close Tuesday, Toledo blew a six point lead w/ nine minutes to go on the road at Western Michigan and lost by six. A season-high 23 turnovers were the clear culprit there and that should not be repeated. The bottom line though is the Rockets are much better than their record shows. Yes, they've lost four of five, but all of the games were close and in there they did beat division leader Ball State. I think it's pertinent to point out that they were favored in Ypsilanti last month, so this line looks like a great value. Consider that UT has outscored its opponents by 13.9 PPG here at home this season. 10* Toledo |
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03-04-16 | Pacers +3 v. Hornets | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Throughout this season, I've been making the case that Charlotte is far better than they're being given credit for. Lately, their play has backed up that assertion. Since Feb 5th, they've won 8 of 10 and that includes a narrow 96-95 victory (as 4-pt dogs) over tonight's opponent, Indiana. But lately, the Hornets have also been fortunate. Not just because Kemba Walker hit a GW shot w/ 2.4 seconds remaining at Indiana last Saturday, but also in that their last two opponents were the Suns and Sixers. The result there was the best back to back performances in franchise history as never before had we seen a Hornets team win by 20+ point margins on consecutive nights. The task is certainly harder this evening, and though Charlotte is at home, Indiana has revenge and is likely to be the better team here. Take the points. I'm coming off a win with the Pacers in their last game, which was a 104-99 (-2) decision at Milwaukee on Wednesday. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak for them and as I wrote in my analysis this team simply performs much better in conference games. They are now 24-12 ATS vs. the rest of the East after covering two nights ago. That record would be even better w/o a pair of outright losses to the Hornets (both at home). This being a double revenge spot, where both losses occurred over the past month, I'd expect a focused effort from Paul George and company here. Note that Indiana has NEVER been swept in a season series by Charlotte. While I've "defended" the Hornets as a legit playoff contender for much of the year, the fact is right now their stock is actually a bit too high. I go back to the fact they got to play two of the worst teams in the league to open March. Neither the Suns nor Sixers could manage to shoot better than 40% from the floor while Charlotte averaged 122.5 PPG against two bad defenses. Looking back to those first two Pacers-Hornets matchups, the difference was that Charlotte was able to make three-pointers while Indiana could not. The former went 23 of 57 from behind the arc while the latter was 8 for 37. I look for the "script to be flipped" here and Indiana to build off Wednesday's win where seven players scored in double figures. 8* Indiana |
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03-03-16 | Stanford v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
8* Arizona State (11:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Sun Devils, who lost by only two (as two-point dogs) in Palo Alto on January 23rd. Given that result, you would figure that they would be asked to lay more in the rematch tonight in Tempe. But your would have figured wrong as ASU is off four straight losses here, the last three all coming on the road, making them extremely undervalued in my estimation. Meanwhile, Stanford is off B2B home wins as 1-pt underdogs (both games) over USC and UCLA, the latter allowing them to shoot a blistering 61.2% from the floor. That won't be repeated here as the Cardinal are a pretty woeful 2-6 SU and ATS on the road. Buy low/sell high! Take the Sun Devils. Not only did ASU just lose three straight on the road, but they were blown out every time. There was a 38-point loss at Arizona, a 35-point loss at Utah and 10 pt loss at Colorado. Yikes! Granted, they were double digit dogs in all two of those games (not Colorado), but still they should have performed better. Perhaps a return home is all they need as they average 78.5 PPG here and are 10-5 SU. Even after getting blown out three straight times, YTD numbers still indicate that this is a pretty competitive team, one that has been been outscored by less than a point per game overall. In the first matchup with Stanford, they lost on a last second shot (w/ just 3.2 seconds to play), so there's no shame there. Just like ASU is not as bad as they've looked recently, Stanford is not as good as recent performances might seem to indicate. While they've won four of five overall, before that they had lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS). That shooting percentage against UCLA was pretty astounding. Not only was it (again, 61.2%!) a season-high but it also marked just the second time since the second game of the season that the Cardinal topped 50%! Wanna bet it drops tonight? On the road, this team shoots just 39.2 percent, including 27.5% from three-point range, so the corresponding poor record is not a shock or any kind of fluke. In their last road game, they scored just 53 points in a double-digit loss to Washington. 8* Arizona State |
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03-03-16 | Marist +2.5 v. Manhattan | Top | 63-81 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
8* Marist (9:00 ET): This is a first round matchup in the MAAC Tournament, which will be hosted by the #3 seed Siena. What's interesting here about the #6 (Manhattan) vs. #11 (Marist) matchup is that is expected to be closer than either the #8 vs. #9 or #7 vs. #10 matchups. Manhattan and Marist exchanged victories during the regular season, each winning on the others floor, which is odd because neither squad was particularly good away from home overall. Early money came in on the underdog Red Foxes, probably because it isn't often that Manhattan is actually favored and the Jaspers closed the regular season w/ three consecutive losses. One of those saw them let me down, as seven-point home dogs vs. Iona. I've learned my lesson. Take the points here. Marist, meanwhile, is off B2B wins. Both were at home, but encouraging is that each was decided by a double digit margin as they easily covered the spread. That was a nice change of pace for a team that has suffered a number of close losses throughout the year. Seven times this season, the Red Foxes have lost by four points or less, which is a stark contrast to having just two wins in such contests. They come off perhaps their best game all season, a 91-77 win over Quinnipiac, as they shot 56.4% from the floor. Typically, I might want to fade a team coming off such a performance, but the conference tournament setting nullifies that mentality, plus you have the fact that the Red Foxes had the weekend off, giving them two extra days to prepare here. Manhattan's regular season did not conclude until Sunday when they were beaten 60-57 by Rider. At least they left w/ the cash as six-point dogs in that one. But the bottom line is the Jaspers have covered the spread just one time in conference play when laying more than a basket! With the winner of this game being matched up w/ tourney host Siena tomorrow, it won't be a long stay for the winner, but the bottom line here is I expect Marist to pull the upset, something they were able to do at Manhattan earlier this year. 8* Marist |
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03-03-16 | Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -10.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET): Eastern Washington is a team w/ one of the strongest home court edges in the entire country. I mean, it's pretty ridiculous what they've been able to accomplish this season in Cheney. Not only are they a perfect 10-0 straight up, but their average margin of victory is an astounding 23.4 points per game here. This isn't the first time I've played the Eagles at home this year; I had them in a 10-point win over North Dakota back on Feb 11. That was actually one of their closest decisions of the year and now being off B2B road losses, EWU should be set to "explode" at the expense of Big Sky also-ran Idaho State. Lay the number. EWU actually played its last three games on the road. The trip started out well w/ a 93-88 win and cover over Sacramento State. But then they forgot to pack their defense in a 107-91 loss at Portland State, a game that saw them trailing by 20 at halftime. Saturday marked a frustrating effort at the offensive end of the floor as they scored only 62 points in a four-point loss. Keep in mind that the Eagles are #5 in offensive efficiency in the entire country. After shooting just 43 percent overall vs. Idaho, including 0 for 7 from three-point range, they should absolutely improve here at home where they average a whopping 96 PPG! Not only does the team average 12 made three-pointers per game at home, but they are shooting 55.4% overall from the floor for the season! Idaho State actually has the same conference record as EWU, but as this line illustrates, the Eagles' home court edge is quite significant and far more important than the respective 10-6 SU records in Big Sky play. Idaho State checks in off a 76-69 win over Montana State, but note that was a tie game w/ five minutes left. The Bengals made 10 three-pointers, more than we're accustomed to seeing from them, and not only is EWU's home court edge very significant but it is compounded by the fact the visitors here are just 4-9 SU in "true" road games this season. The Bengals of Idaho State see their offensive numbers decline significantly away from home and simply lack the firepower to compete tonight. 8* Eastern Washington |
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03-03-16 | California v. Arizona -6.5 | Top | 61-64 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:00 ET): This is a big revenge spot for #18 Arizona (lost by one at Cal on Jan 23rd), who is off B2B losses to boot. I was on Cal in the season's first meeting, as they were 2.5-point dogs in Berkeley where they have still yet to taste defeat at home all season long (18-0 SU). Following that upset, the Bears would drop B2B games. But they've since won and covered seven in a row, strengthening their case to be at worst an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament. But while they have won at both Washington schools during that stretch, the fact is the team is still just 3-6 SU in "true" road games and the McKale Center in Tuscon is a place where only one visitor (Oregon, this year) has triumphed in the last 54 tries. Lay the points. This game caught my eye quickly, not just because Arizona is at home and off B2B losses, but also due to the fact the line jumped almost immediately. Clearly, I am not the only one anticipating Sean Miller's team to bounce back in this spot. Given that the Wildcats don't just win here, but regularly blow visitors out (+20.4 PPG at home), it's certainly a reasonable assertion to have. The two losses on the road last week (at Colorado, Utah) both came by single digits as have all others this season. In fact, five of the seven have been by four points or less. So, let's not go writing this team off just yet. Though they lost the first time to Cal, it's not as if they played poorly. Also, that game saw them take the court w/o their leading scorer, freshman Allonzo Trier. Coming off a game-high 23 pts at Utah over the weekend, Trier's presence tonight should make a big difference. Cal averages roughly 8.5 points per game less on the road compared to at home. That clearly plays a role in their striking home vs. road dichotomy. There is no denying that this team's stock is really high right now, especially right after blowing out USC over the weekend. But, as my regular clients will attest to, I often choose to "sell high" on a team and that's the opportunity we have here. This is Cal's toughest game of the entire Pac 12 slate and Arizona comes in with an extra day to prepare. The difference in the Bears defensive numbers (home vs. road) is just as severe as the offensive numbers. 10* Arizona |
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03-03-16 | Suns +14 v. Heat | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (7:35 ET): This is a real "hold your nose" and take the points kind of situation as since Christmas no team in the league has been worse than the Suns and you're probably all too aware of that. But taking both theirs and Miami's last game into account, we've got to be getting some sort of regression to the mean on both sides. Phoenix was absolutely clobbered on Tuesday, losing by 34 to Charlotte. That's pretty inexcusable, but when you consider the team was off its first win in more than a month, I suppose its understandable. Meanwhile, Miami just shot an insane 67.5% from the floor (not a misprint!) in its last game, a 129-111 win over Chicago. The Heat only average 97.5 PPG (one of the lowest marks in the league), so that kind of offensive showing is highly irregular and the idea of them laying double digits their next time out sounds a bit "iffy" to me. Take the points. Make no mistake about it - Miami is playing well right now. They've covered six of seven, winning five of those games straight up and one of the two losses was to Golden State. But that certainly doesn't disqualify them from potentially being undervalued for this contest. Remember that they are still w/o Chris Bosh (blood clot). This will be just the second time all year that they've been favored by more than 12.5 points. They failed the first time, beating Philadelphia by only five back in November. In fact, since that time, they have been double digit dogs three times, which is three times more than they've been double digit favorites (0). After scoring 105+ points the previous game, the Heat are just 4-7 ATS their next time out. There's no sugarcoating how bad Phoenix has been on the road this season (4-24 straight up!), but they probably won't be any worse here than Chicago was on Tuesday against the Heat. Consider that Miami ranks dead last in the league in three-point percentage (31.9%), but made half of their attempts from behind the arc against the Bulls. Some of the improvement is owed to the Joe Johnson acquisition, but still I see them regressing here. For Phoenix, things can't possibly be worse than they were in the last game. They'll stay within the number, which has actually come down despite the majority of bets being on the Heat (smart money alert!) 8* Phoenix |
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03-02-16 | Oregon v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
8* UCLA (9:00 ET): UCLA is a team whose stock is considered to be "down" right now as the Bruins have dropped B2B games (both on the road), not to mention five of their last seven, leaving the team's NCAA Tournament status tenuous at best. With a 15-14 SU record, it looks increasingly likely that they will have to win the Pac 12 Tournament just to make the Big Dance. But while tonight offers up a challenge, it's also a big opportunity to break through. Oregon, currently alone in first place in the conference, comes calling and this is not just a revenge spot, but Senior Night as well. Given UCLA did not play many home games in February (just two), I expect motivation to be high here and an upset to be pulled. Take the points. Looking at the two times the Bruins got to play in Pauley Pavillion last month, one resulted in a two-point loss (to Utah) and the other was a 20-pt win over Colorado. They've since lost at Cal and Stanford, the latter coming Saturday as one-point favorites. The two road games in three days scenario is brutal in the Pac 12, so I wasn't surprised to see the week go so badly. Note, however, that at home UCLA is 10-4 straight up and outscoring opponents by 9.3 points per game. That includes 2-0 SU and ATS as a dog with those upsets coming at the expense of Arizona and Kentucky (quite impressive!). They let Stanford shoot 61.5% Saturday. As good as Oregon might be, they are highly unlikely to match that kind of shooting tonight. Teams at the top of the polls have been losing to unranked opponents at a historic pace this season, at least when they're on the road. Oregon, now in the top 10, has a losing road record this season (3-5 straight up) and was clobbered in a similar spot last month at California, losing by 20. I was on the Bears there and then the Ducks would follow that loss up w/ another, this time by four at Stanford. They've rebounded with three straight wins, but all were at home (where they are 18-0 SU) against double digit underdogs. Though they won the first meeting vs. UCLA by 14, I do not believe they should be favored here. UCLA has not lost three consecutive Pac 12 games since 2010. 8* UCLA |
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03-02-16 | Pistons v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 81-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Though I figure the Spurs must soon fall from their lofty ATS perch (league-best 37-22), it won't be here. Unless you've been under a rock for the duration of the season, the Spurs unblemished 28-0 SU home record is not news. Best of all is that when you subtract the two games this year in which they were an underdog (obviously, both on the road) that ATS record jumps to 37-20. That includes 7-1 when in this price range (-9 to -12.5) at home, so I'd argue that it's the Pistons, not the Spurs, that come in overvalued for this one. The reason being Detroit has won and covered four straight, including upsets of the top two teams in the East (Cleveland & Toronto). But the road has been unkind to SVG's troops as they are just 13-18 SU/ATS outside the Motor City. Lay the points. These teams met not that long ago (January 12th) and the Spurs won 109-99 as 6.5-point favorites. That's pretty significant considering how good the Pistons have been at home. Also, using that line as our baseline, the number here should clearly be higher, especially seeing as San Antonio covered that first meeting. I expect Detroit to really struggle to score here. They shot just 41.8% against the Spurs the first go-around and are one of the worst shooting teams in the league overall. In terms of "true shooting percentage" (which weighs free throw and 3-pt attempts), only the Lakers are worse. I probably don't have to tell you that San Antonio is #1 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency by a pretty wide margin. Here at home (where their avg MOV = 16.1 PPG), they give up only 90.4 PPG. It's important to note that Detroit did not have to contend with Toronto's Kyle Lowry (rest) in the last game. Also, they shot a season-best 58% from the floor (also season-high in assists w/ 28). Those numbers will almost surely decline tonight as they aren't going to be making 12 three-pointers again. In many ways, Sunday was one of the Pistons' best games all season. The difference for the Spurs is that those kind of performances are more commonplace. Back at home for the first time since before the All-Star Break ("Rodeo Road Trip" complete!), they should come out very strong here in a nationally televised contest. 8* San Antonio |
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03-02-16 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
8* Indiana (8:05 ET): After coming up short in three straight, including a tough loss in Cleveland to start the week, the Pacers should be a team focused on winning Wednesday night in Milwaukee. They'll find a Bucks team in off a surprising win, 128-121 (+3) over Houston, that was exciting yet that kind of performance will be hard to duplicate. The Rockets are just atrocious defensively and the Bucks were able to take advantage by topping 30 points in three of the four quarters, including 36 in the critical fourth. Indiana has not lost four in a row at any point in the season, going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS when off three straight defeats, and given the short number in play here, I'm willing to lay it. The Pacers really let me down Sunday when they lost at home to Portland, 111-102. But playing w/o rest in Cleveland (who was off a bad loss itself Sunday), they showed me something in sticking with the favored Cavaliers, losing only 100-96 as eight-point dogs. Were it not for Lebron James, Indiana probably wins that game, which they led by four w/ just under five minutes left. Though they've now lost five straight division road games, the fact remains the Pacers are 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the Central this year. Also important to note is their 23-12 ATS record vs. the entire East. For whatever reason, this team performs much better against the opponents that "they know." These teams are certainly familiar with one another as it will be the third meeting of the season. They split two games in Indiana w/ the Pacers winning the first in blowout fashion (by 37!), but losing the second by four. Milwaukee shot 58.4% in their win, similar to the 59.3 FG% they turned in vs. the Rockets. But often times we will see a team come back "down to Earth" following such a hot-shooting performance and that's what I anticipate here. A new starting lineup has breathed some much-needed life into these Bucks, but I seriously doubt Giannis Antetokounmpo is going for a triple double in B2B games. Even after winning five of eight, Milwaukee remains "out of it," a full six games back of the Pacers. 8* Indiana |
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03-02-16 | Bulls +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:05 ET): I've been writing off the Bulls as any kind of legit contender in the East for some time now, but now things have reached the point of crisis as Fred Hoiberg's outfit has dropped three in a row and is no longer in the top eight in the Conference. Point differential says this is no fluke as they are being outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions over the course of the season, worse than every team in the top eight. But, now in full on desperation mode, I'm going to back them plus the points tonight in Orlando. The Magic, like the Bulls, lost yday and haven't been playing particularly well of late. Sure,they have two wins over the last six games, but that's because they were lucky enough to play Philadelphia twice. Road teams are often undervalued in the second of B2B games and that's what we have here. Orlando has covered seven of the last eight times these teams have played. That includes a 92-87 loss early this season where they were taking eight. That game now seems like "forever ago" and the bottom line is that after opening the season 21-9 ATS, the Magic are just 11-17-1 ATS their last 29 games. As a favorite, a role they've been in more than you might think, the YTD record is a very respectable 15-5 SU/12-8 ATS. But that's come at the expense of facing a lot of bad teams. For example, Philadelphia, whom they beat handily twice in the last week or so. Defense, or rather lack of it, is becoming a major issue for Scott Skiles, who has watched his team allow 118 PPG its last five. Four of those five games, including Philly twice, have seen the opponent score 115 or more. Dallas shot a season-best 56 percent against the Magic last night en route to 121 points. Over the L26 games, Orlando has allowed an average of 107.1 PPG. Of course, Chicago has its own issues defensively. In what Pau Gasol rightly termed a "terrible effort," the team allowed Miami to shoot a preposterous 67.5%(!) from the floor, the highest percentage in any NBA game since 2010. The Heat are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, but finished the game w/ a season-best 129 points. As bad as that may sound, there's no way Orlando can be any better and given their own recent form, they make an ideal matchup for the Bulls. In games where the total is 210+, the Bulls are 4-1 ATS this season. 10* Chicago |
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03-02-16 | Fordham v. Duquesne -4.5 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Duquesne (7:00 ET): Hardly a "marquee" game on the Wednesday slate, this matchup of A-10 also-rans offers some solid value. Duquesne plays its final home game and you have to figure they'll be desperate. If they don't win here, then it likely will be a nine-game losing streak entering the Conference Tourney due to having to travel to St. Joe's this weekend. Yes, despite seven straight losses, the Dukes are actually favored here. I like this play because Fordham, perennially the worst team the A-10 has to offer, has actually won three of its last four including an upset of Davidson its last time out. So, the value here resides in going against the Rams, who have not been off B2B wins since playing a very weak non-conference slate. Lay the short number. In fact, this is the first time we find Fordham off B2B wins in the A-10 all year. Last Wednesday, they found themselves in the rare role of favorite, playing last place LaSalle. The Rams won there, albeit barely, as the final score was 56-53 (laying 3). Note that LaSalle is very bad and easily the worst team in the conference this season. Saturday, however, saw the Rams down a pretty good Davidson team, 91-82 as four-point home dogs. All five starters scored in double figures and the team shot better than 51% from the floor, their highest percentage in a game since facing Richmond on January 10th. Needless to say, we should see a decline here. On the road this season, Fordham is 2-7 straight up and being outscored by 9.9 points per game. One of the wins was at LaSalle, the other at UMass, who also stinks. I'm not going to make the case that Duquesne is any kind of "world-beater," but most of their recent losses have been close (five by single digits, three by four pts or less). Unfortunately, they ran into Richmond (off three straight losses) at the wrong time and lost 83-67 (line was pick 'em!) Saturday. The Dukes typically have no problems scoring here at home; they average 83.5 PPG on 47% shooting. Richmond came out really hot & defense is a bit of a concern, but not here w/ Fordham only averaging 63.1 PPG on 40.1% shooting away from home. It's Senior Night and that always adds to the motivation, something the Dukes should already not be lacking in, given the long losing streak. 10* Duquesne |
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03-01-16 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +1.5 | Top | 83-56 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (9:30 ET): The famed "Pit" in Albuquerque has long been known as one of, if not the, most difficult venue to play at in the Mountain West. Despite a down year for New Mexico, that statement continues to hold true as the Lobos are 12-3 straight up at home. But that's including a loss in their last game, 92-82 to Fresno State as 6.5-point favorites. That loss, the team's third straight overall, came about despite shooting at a 53.2% clip and leading scorer Elijah Brown contributing a career-high 41 points. What went wrong? Aside from allowing 51 second half points, the Lobos turned the ball over 18 times. On Senior Night, as a rare home dog, I expect them to bounce back though. San Diego State, who already has the MWC regular season title all wrapped up, is also off an outright loss here. They too were 6.5-point favorites when they fell (by three) to Boise State over the weekend, at home. It was just their second loss in the last 16 games and it came in spectacular fashion as the Broncos erased a nine-point deficit w/ less than two minutes remaining. That was the Aztecs first game since clinching the regular season crown, by the way. Remember that the conference is way down this year. That doesn't mean that New Mexico isn't a worthy challenger here though, if anything, the Lobos should be highly motivated to avenge a seven-point loss from last month. The line there was only -5, so I don't really understand why the home team isn't favored again here. Furthermore, that first meeting went to overtime and that was only after SDSU rallied back from a five-point deficit w/ just over 20 seconds to go in regulation! There was a controversial call on an inbounds pass that went the Aztecs way and the result was them getting the ball back and then tying the game up with a three-pointer. I mentioned earlier that New Mexico has now lost three straight following Saturday and they have actually been the favorite in all three of those games! They also will be motivated here by the fact they've lost three straight times to the Aztecs. "Funny things" tend to happen on Senior Night and the Lobos do average more than 80 PPG at home. San Diego State does not tend to shoot the ball well on the road. 10* New Mexico |
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03-01-16 | Indiana v. Iowa -4 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
8* Iowa (9:00 ET): This is a rematch. In the first meeting, which was in Bloomington obviously, I played Indiana. That play won and unforeseeable at the time is that it would begin a downward spiral for the Hawkeyes that has seen them drop four of five (0-5 ATS) w/ the lone win coming by four over lowly Minnesota. They have lost three in a row outright as favorites, including their first and only home loss (to Wisconsin) last Wednesday. That was followed up by losing at Ohio State, 68-64, on Sunday. Stock is down in Iowa City right now, but you know me, that makes it the perfect opportunity to "buy low" here. Indiana is off a big win last Thursday (had the weekend off), guaranteeing itself at least a share of the Big 10 regular season crown, but I don't see them beating Iowa twice in the same season. Lay the short number. Iowa really hurt themselves at the free throw line in the first matchup. Even though they had more attempts than Indiana (on the road), they finished w/ five less makes. That's pretty significant in a game they lost by only seven points. Also significant here is the change in venue. We know that Indiana has, arguably, the strongest home court edge in the entire country. They have not lost one time at Assembly Hall this season and average a ton of points per game there. But on the road, the Hoosiers are only 3-6 ATS (in "true" road games) and averaging well below their season average of 82.9 points per game (74.1). Again, Iowa had not dropped a home game itself before falling to Wisconsin last week. Despite that result, they have outscored visitors on average by 15 PPG at Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season. I'm simply not buying Iowa's recent form as any kind of long-term trend. They've shot only 40.7 percent from the floor including a season-worst 32.7% in their last home game. There were zero bench points scored in the first meeting vs. Indiana and that number can obviously only go up. On Sunday, they led Ohio State by six points w/ just over four minutes to go. Against Wisconsin, they were up six w/ just over 10 minutes remaining. They've lost by a total of 16 pts these last three games and this is their longest losing skid of the season to date. Indiana will not be as prolific as they were LW at Illinois. 8* Iowa |
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03-01-16 | Blazers v. Knicks +5.5 | Top | 104-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): Since December, much has changed for Portland. You have to remember that this was a team that had to replace four starters from last year, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge, and opened only 11-20 (straight up) out of the gate. However, following the X-Mas Break, the Blazers have gone 21-8 SU and that includes a very strong 9-2 February. Turning back to December, however, there was a game against the Knicks that they lost 112-110. That was at home and the Blazers were 3.5-pt chalk. I realize that "much has changed," but it certainly does appear that the Knicks are now a really solid value taking more points at home than they did at the Moda Center 2.5 months ago. Take the points. Now, while the Blazers are surging, the Knicks are clearly fading. After the disastrous season that was 2014-15, the latter was a nice early season story. But it didn't take long for former HC Derek Fisher to get sacked and the team is 3-14 SU its last 17 games. Believe it or not, but at the time of the first meeting, the Knicks had a better overall record than the Blazers! Don't think for a second that the oddsmakers haven't taken note and as a result we have an inflated line for the rematch. Remember what I always say about "selling high" & "buying low?" It certainly applies here. Portland still has a losing road record (13-16 SU) for the year (-2.0 PPG) and this will be their third straight away from home of what will be a six-game trip (all out East). Interestingly enough, the Blazers have been a road favorite only seven times all year. Three of those games were against the Nets, Sixers and Lakers. So this is a bit of 'rarefied air' for them. Eventually, this incredible run that PG Damian Lillard is on has to come to a bit of a halt. He has scored 30+ pts in seven of the last eight games, a stretch certainly to be commended, but I don't think he can continue to keep it up. Only four guards all season have scored 30+ against the Knicks. Maybe New York reached a point in the year where they were overvalued, but that time is no longer and they are still 21-17 ATS when taking points. Taking away games where they are playing w/ two or more days rest (11-1 ATS in that situation), the Blazers have a losing ATS record. 10* New York |
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02-29-16 | Nets v. Clippers -13 | Top | 95-105 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Brooklyn has started what will end up being a nine-game road trip with three consecutive covers, including B2B "upsets." I use the quotation marks there because they were bet to the underdog role in Phoenix last Thursday, but clearly Saturday was a surprise as they were taking 11.5 points in Utah. It was an identical number last week in Portland (only lost by eight), but while those lines may both have been too high, this one is not nearly high enough. A huge gap exists between the top four and the rest of the field in the Western Conference and the Clippers are among the former group. After being shocked by Denver here at home Wednesday (I had the Nuggets +10.5!), LA rebounded by blowing out Sacramento on the road Friday. They had the weekend off, so lack of rest won't be an issue. Lay the points. Meanwhile, being on the road for a week could start to take its toll on the lowly Nets, who only have six wins away from home all season. They won't be back home again until March 13th and that's clearly bad news for a team that's already being outscored by almost 7.5 points per game on the road. Look for their scoring to start to decrease as they average only 96.9 PPG on the road for the season, but have been above that number each of the last three games. Playing at an increased tempo has led Brooklyn to shoot nearly 45% from three-point range the last nine games. Again, that number will start to regress back to the mean as they are only 34.7% from behind the arc for the season. It's the same players shooting remember. The Clippers have covered four of five and got a season-high 40 points (w/ 13 assists) from Chris Paul on Friday. Before that, defense had actually been the story, holding three of the previous four opponents under 90 points. Here at the Staples Center, Los Angeles is 19-10 SU and outscoring teams by 6.7 points per game. Maybe that doesn't sound impressive, but when considering Brooklyn's YTD numbers on the road, this line should be higher. My own personal power ratings have the Clips favored by 15.5 in this spot. The Nets lost by almost 40 in their lone visit to LA to play the Clippers last season. 8* LA Clippers |
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02-29-16 | 76ers +12.5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): It's always a challenge to drum up any support to play on the Sixers and here they figure to get little in the way of support given they just lost to the Wizards by nine (at home) on Friday. But each team has played a game since then and those respective results have greatly influenced this line from where I sit. Philadelphia lost (again) Sunday, this time 130-116 in Orlando, a wild affair that featured little to no defense. Meanwhile, Washington pulled a major upset yday, beating Cleveland at home, though the "impressiveness" of that win is somewhat minimized by the fact that LeBron James did not play. The Wiz have not had the greatest of seasons and the idea of them laying double digits isn't something I'd be too keen on. Take the points. From previous analysis we know that teams playing in the second of back to back road games are often undervalued, especially as an underdog. Philly hasn't fared particularly well in this situation, but after five consecutive ATS losses, you have to think there will be at least a little bit of value on them in this price range. This will be an unprecedented price range for the Wizards, as in it's the most points they've been asked to lay in any game so far this season! The only other time they came in as double digit chalk, they ended up losing outright to the Lakers here at home. Going back to previous seasons, the Wiz are just 3-10 ATS the L13 times they have been favorites of at least 12.5 points. The Sixers actually scored their season high in points (on 53.2% shooting) Sunday. So that likely means we're getting a decrease in scoring here, but at the same time we should see improved defense as it can't get any worse than 130 pts allowed on 57% shooting (Magic scored 77 pts in the 1st half!). As I've previously written about, Washington is hardly an efficient offense as they are top five in pace (point of emphasis for them coming into the year), but are in a tie for 17th in points per 100 possessions. Things have gotten better since the All-Star Break (won five of seven), but after a win like yday (which was a bit misleading w/ no James), their stock is now a little bit too high in my estimation, so I say it's time to fade. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-29-16 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -12 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (7:00 ET): The Tar Heels lost on Saturday, but considering they were at Virginia (as slight underdogs), that's fairly excusable. The final score was 79-74 and I cashed the Over, but tonight I'm willing to lay the points as they're back in Chapel Hill. Earlier this season, at the Carrier Dome, UNC downed Syracuse 84-73 as 7.5-point chalk. Using that number as a baseline, it does appear that we have a little bit of value on the home favorite tonight (should be about an eight-point swing from road to home in NCAA). Syracuse is pretty pedestrian away from home while North Carolina is 14-1 SU here at the Dean Dome, outscoring its opponents on average by about 21 points per game. Lay the number. UNC does have a big revenge spot upcoming at Duke on Saturday, so they'll have to avoid looking ahead. But considering the loss two nights ago, I'm counting on the proper focus here. Off its last loss (which was the one to Duke), the Tar Heels came back and blew out a very good Miami team here by 25 points. Only once all season has the team dropped B2B games and both were on the road. The Heels actually shot the ball reasonably well against a Virginia team that is among the best defensively in the entire country. In fact, they finished the game at 49.2% from the field, including 9 of 19 on three-pointers (47.4%). But where they killed themselves was at the FT line where they went just 7 for 13. Virginia had more made FT's than UNC even had attempts. Despite having lost four times in February, I see no reason to panic in Chapel Hill as Roy Williams' team averages 86.8 PPG here. Syracuse is just 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when attempting to avenge a home loss. Prior to beating North Carolina State (at home) on Saturday, the Orange had dropped B2B games while being held under 60 points both times. That's not a good sign here. They did win at Duke last month, but generally speaking, the 'Cuse have failed to "step up" when taking on the upper echelon of the ACC. Against NC State, one of their own (Michael Gbinjie) scored a career-high 34 pts while Wolfpack leading scorer Anthony Barber was held to only 15. As a team, the Orange made 12 three-pointers. I can't see that happening again tonight, so with UNC looking to hold down a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, look for them to win in convincing fashion. 8* North Carolina |
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02-28-16 | Blazers v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* Indiana (6:05 ET): I was a little surprised to see Portland win yday in Chicago, at least as comfortably as they did. Granted, the Bulls did not have their full compliment of players (no Derrick Rose, not to mention no Butler or Noah), but still... the Blazers led by 10 at the half and never really looked back. When is the inevitable regression to the mean going to take place w/ this team? They've won 16 of 20 overall, including seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS). But despite last night's win, they remain 12-16 SU on the road, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game. How much longer can they simply "count on" their outstanding backcourt of Damian Lillard (31 pts last night) and CJ McCollum? Playing in the second game of a back to back, I expect the Blazers to stumble Sunday in Indiana. Lay the short number. The Pacers have now failed to cover three in a row after an outright loss to Charlotte (here at home) on Friday. That loss came by a single point as the Hornets' Kemba Walker was able to answer Monta Ellis w/ a game winner when just 2.4 seconds were left on the clock. Yet, they appear to be a little bit undervalued in this situation given their strong record when favored (25-10 straight up) and against .500 or better teams (19-8 ATS). They are outscoring teams by 4.2 PPG here at home this season. I constantly preach the importance of "buying low" and here is a good opportunity to do so with Indiana. Portland took the season's first meeting, 123-111 thanks to making a ridiculous 18 three-pointers. For the season, they average 10 makes per game from behind the arc. I feel confident in forecasting that we'll be seeing a decrease in production offensively here. Also, I find it interesting that Indiana was actually a 2.5-point favorite in Portland back in December. That again illustrates the kind of value we appear to be getting here. I often make the case that teams, especially road teams, are often undervalued in the second game of a back to back. But because they've been so hot, that's not the case here with the Blazers, who are just 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in this situation anyway. The Pacers have had their struggles vs. the West this year (7-17 ATS), but did win at Oklahoma City right after the All-Star Break and I'd expect that trend to progress back to average. 10* Indiana |
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02-28-16 | Xavier v. Seton Hall +2 | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (12:30 ET): The respective statuses of these two Big East teams, as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament, is quite different entering this Sunday afternoon matchup. Xavier, ranked 5th in the country right now, is battling for a #1 seed in the big dance. Meanwhile, Seton Hall finds itself firmly on the bubble, even though they've won three in a row including an 18-point beatdown of Providence earlier this week. The Pirates have been one of the better teams to bet on in the entire country this season w/ a 17-8 ATS mark including 9-2 last 11. Where they've really excelled is in the underdog role as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five including three outright upsets. I'll call for another here as Xavier is in a letdown spot off the big win over #1 Villanova. These teams met last month & it was Xavier winning (but not covering) 84-76 as nine-point chalk. Neither team shot the ball particularly well, especially from three-point range, but where Seton Hall really killed itself was from the line. They made only 10 of 19 free throws, which was a big deal when you consider Xavier was 18 for 22. Also, reserve James Farr came in and contributed career highs in both points (24) and rebounds (15). Like the free throw discrepancy, that probably won't be repeated again today. The home team has now won each of the last four meetings with the final margin being at least eight points every time. Seton Hall has just three home losses on its resume, one of them coming by only a single point to Villanova. This is their final home game this year. I mentioned earlier that Seton Hall has covered five straight in the underdog role. They are 9-1 ATS overall this season when taking points and a highly impressive 28-14 ATS L42. Overall, they've also covered eight of their last 10 games against teams that have a winning record. Those impressive marks are largely owed to having perhaps the best defense in the conference. Opponents are shooting just 39.3% overall vs. the Hall, including 30.7% from three-point range (last year Xavier missed 18 of 19!). Providence was held to 28.4% Thursday. Xavier, off the 90-point effort vs. Villanova, is prone to a letdown in this spot. 8* Seton Hall |
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02-27-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3 | Top | 121-118 | Push | 0 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET): While just about anyone (myself included) would have both of these teams ranked among the top 4 in the league (GSW either 1st or 2nd, OKC either 3rd or 4th), the truth is that they are miles apart when it comes to the pointspread. The Warriors trail only the Spurs in the ATS standings (32-23-2 to 36-22-0) and of course they are 52-5 straight up, on pace for the best record in league history. Meanwhile, the Thunder have the worst ATS record in the league at 22-35-1 ATS (have been at or near the bottom much of the year) after losing outright in New Orleans Thursday night. Predictably, the public is on the short road favorite in this one, but I'm going the other way as OKC is 25-7 SU at home and has yet to be an underdog here in any game this season. Take the points! This will be the second Saturday night primetime meeting between these two this month. I did not have a play on that first meeting, a 116-108 Golden State win that fell right on the number. Note that it was a high-scoring first half and the Warriors had a 73-59 lead going into the break. But with the public moving in on them here, Steph Curry and company are a little overvalued, which is something that I haven't been able to say much this season. The fact is both they and the Spurs are significantly ahead of the rest of the league, but with homecourt advantage I expect the Thunder to be quite competitive, if not pull off the outright win. Remember all five Warriors losses this season have come out on the road. They are due to regress (at least against the pointspread) and Curry should see his own production drop after a 51-pt effort Thursday in Orlando. This is the final game of a seven-game trip for the team. The Thunder appeared to have righted the course w/ a 116-103 win in Dallas Wednesday, but then lost outright in New Orleans the following night. It was their third loss in four games since the All-Star Break even though they shot nearly 55% from the floor! You simply should not lose when back that hot from the floor and the issue here has been defense, or rather a lack of it. Clearly then, Golden State coming to town is not promising, but consider the Thunder average 108.2 PPG at home while outscoring foes by almost nine points per game and 7-5 SU off a SU loss as a favorite. The Warriors do allow 107.5 PPG on the road. 8* Oklahoma City |
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02-27-16 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois +1 | Top | 76-90 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
10* Western Illinois (8:00 ET): The Leathernecks (still a great nickname!) let me down Thursday, losing here at home to IPFW (Indiana-Purdue Ft Wayne) aka the top ATS team in the country, 87-75 as 3.5-pt dogs. It was their fourth loss in a row, guaranteeing them a last place finish in the Summit League. Tonight marks the regular season finale (at home) and they draw the team that's second from the bottom, South Dakota, who is off a surprising win (85-82 over IUPUI). Revenge will be in the air tonight in Macomb as the Leathernecks lost to the Coyotes last month, 76-67 as 4.5-pt dogs. But that result doesn't justify this line and Western Illinois should be highly motivated to win at home for its seniors. I think that home court advantage and defense will play the deciding roles in this one. As far as the former is concerned, Western Illinois might only be 6-6 SU at home this season, but they have a point differential of +6.6 points per game, indicating that the record should be better. They're allowing just 66.6 PPG here (eerie numbers!) which is markedly better than what South Dakota gives up on the road (82.6 PPG allowed). The Leathernecks endured a poor start to the second half Thursday and that's what cost them. They only trailed IPFW (Summit leaders) by five at halftime. Coming after playing the top two teams in the league, South Dakota is a steep drop in class in terms of opponent for the Leathernecks, who are led by junior Garret Covington, who has gone over 20 points in four consecutive games. South Dakota shoots the ball well overall, but Western Illinois is better from three-point range (38.4%) and that could end up being the difference here given the Coyotes struggles defending the arc. Coming off their only other outright win as a dog in Summit League play, South Dakota ended up losing by 20 their next time out and as is the case here that was the second of B2B road games. The Coyotes opened league play 2-7 SU, but have since won four of seven thanks to a home-heavy stretch. The road will be unkind here. 10* Western Illinois |
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02-27-16 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee -3 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 104 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
10* Middle Tennessee (6:00 ET): Things are not looking especially great for Middle Tennessee right now. Not only did they just drop a tough one here at home to rival Western Kentucky Thursday, but leading scorer Gibby Potts (15.0 points per game) has been ruled out for an indefinite period of time due to a concussion. This is not good news for a team that has now dropped three of its last four to essentially "play its way out" of the race in Conference USA. However, there's been a clear overreaction to the injury by the oddsmakers as the Blue Raiders were just one-point dogs when they lost at Marshall (admittedly in blowout fashion) last month. Curiously, while the majority of the bets in this game have come in on the road dog, the line has actually gone UP. That's a sign of so-called "smart money" on the home favorite here, so I'm going to lay the short number. Marshall finds itself in second place in C-USA, 1.5 games back of first place UAB. That's not bad for a team that entered conference play at just 4-9 SU overall. But while they did cover, it was a crushing 95-91 loss at UAB on Thursday, a game that saw the Thundering Herd turn the ball over only eight times. Playing that well and still coming up short in such a crucial game is bound to have a bit of a "carryover effect" here. The Herd have covered five straight games, but this is the dreaded second road game in three nights scenario, which is very difficult for most College Basketball teams. Defensively, this team is a disaster as they allow not just 83.2 PPG overall, but also 89.9 PPG on the road (has to be the worst in the country!). Twice in conference play, they have allowed more than 100 pts on the road. Speaking of trouble defensively, Middle Tennessee's last few opponents couldn't miss. Four of the last five have shot better than 51% from the floor, including UAB at 61.4%, but note that for the season the Blue Raiders are allowing just 43.2% shooting. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games, but were actually favored over first place UAB here in Murfreesboro where they are 10-3 SU w/ a point differential of +7.5 PPG. This is their final home game of the season, so motivation should be quite high, especially coming off the B2B outright losses. They will not shoot nearly as poorly here as they did in the 1st meeting vs. Marshall (missed 13 of 16 three-point attempts). 10* Middle Tennessee |
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02-27-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. IUPU-Indianapolis +1.5 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
8* IUPUI (1:00 ET): Prepare for a bit of "alphabet soup" in this analysis as we have IUPUI taking on IUPUI-Ft Wayne (IPFW). The latter, as we know, is the best ATS team in the league, now w/ a 20-5 mark. Their latest cover came Thursday night (at Western Illinois) and I happened to be on the wrong end of the 87-75 finale (IPFW was -3.5). Here, the Mastodons visit their chief rival in the Summit League in what is the regular season finale for both. IUPUI is off an outright loss here at home in their last game, by three to South Dakota (were 3-pt favorites). I don't see the Jaguars dropping B2B home games to end the year nor do I see the visitors winning B2B road games, something they have yet to do all season. IUPUI has actually dropped five of its last six games, but three of those losses have come by a total of nine points including the last two both being final margins of four points or less. It was actually a two-point win the first time they faced off w/ IPFW, on the road, as six-point underdogs. At the time, that was part of what would turn into a four-game win streak w/ the next two games also very close. Here at home this season, the Jaguars are 8-2 straight up while averaging 77.9 points per game. One of those losses obviously was the last game, but they never trailed by more than nine Thursday and then the game before that saw them shoot only 35.9 percent in a four point loss at North Dakota State. As a home underdog this year, the Jags are a perfect 3-0 ATS. Simply put, IPFW is likely to regress, not just here but moving forward as well. At least when it comes to the betting window as the Mastodons have only failed to cover in five of their 25 lined games. But this is one of the teams that was able to cover at their expense. The last time IPFW was playing a second straight road game w/ just one day in between, they lost at North Dakota State in what turned out to be their worst game of the season to date. (I played against them there!) They scored just 46 points on 28.1 percent shooting in that one and note that on the road this season they've been outscored by roughly three points per game and favored just twice. 8* IUPUI |
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02-26-16 | Nuggets v. Mavs -5 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Denver was quite kind to me Wednesday as they went to LA and upset the Clippers (as 10.5-pt underdogs!), 87-81. Strangely, they were able to do so despite not scoring 20 points in either quarter of the second half. The key to the win was the Clippers missing 33 of 46 three-point attempts. The Nuggets are still only 12-18 SU on the road this year and seem to be getting a little bit too much respect tonight for a visit to Dallas. It's highly likely that Denver will regress after such a surprising performance two night ago while the Mavs are looking to bounce back from a 116-103 loss here at home to Oklahoma City. Having won just two of eight, Mark Cuban's team needs to pick up the pace as they are only 1.5 games clear of the ninth place team in the Western Conference. Lay the points here. The Nuggets are a team that's rarely favored. In fact, they've been asked to lay points only nine times all season, far fewer than either the Kings or even T'wolves, and are just 2-6-1 ATS in those games. But as a dog, they are a strong 29-19-1 vs. the number. Yet, I just can't help but feel the oddsmakers are giving them enough here. With almost all their wins coming in the underdog role this season, I think it's important to note that the team is just 4-14 SU/6-11-1 ATS coming off an outright upset as a dog. They lost by 11 in Dallas back in November, which was the teams' only previous meeting this season. This is not a team noted for its defense (103.7 PPG allowed), so I'll chalk up the last game as a little bit of luck and an aberration. Dallas has simply been giving up too many points of late, something they will need to fix here. They did hold Denver to just 81 points in the first meeting (on 40% shooting), which is a positive sign, and it's not like the Nuggets were 'lights out' in their upset of the Clippers either. The Mavs were 8.5-pt favorites when they played host back in November, so this line looks to be giving us a bit of value right off the bat. Also, consider that coming off a double digit loss, Dallas has gone 10-4 SU/ATS this year and they are also 17-9 SU/16-10 ATS after giving up 105+ points the previous game. I don't think the Mavs should have any problems scoring here as they come in averaging 113.8 points the L5 games. 10* Dallas |
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02-26-16 | Iona v. Manhattan +6 | Top | 86-73 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Manhattan (7:00 ET): The Jaspers are off a pretty bad loss here, 61-40 (at home!) to St. Peter's as four-point favorites. Meanwhile, Iona comes in off B2B upsets, the first being a really big one (83-67 over MAAC leader Monmouth) and then Monday they won at Siena 87-81 (+1.5). Given how often I preach about the value of "selling high" and "buying low," this seems like a perfect opportunity to strike in what is a revenge spot for the home team. Manhattan did lose by 14 earlier in the year at Iona, but were 11-pt dogs in the contest and shot just 35.6% from the field after being off for eight days due to a snowstorm in the northeast. Seeing what the line was for that first matchup and comparing to what it is here, there does appear to be some good value on the home dog. This is Manhattan's final home game of the year, so they should be motivated as well. Take the points. When these teams faced off last month (also on a Friday), Iona was on a five-game ATS losing streak and had just been upset in its previous game, 98-91 by Fairfield. Now, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot." Starting w/ the 70-56 victory over Manhattan, the Gaels have covered seven of their last eight games (just avenged only loss - Siena) and are just one game back of Monmouth for first place. However, despite building a 25-point lead in the first half at Siena Monday, things were not nearly as easy as Iona would have liked. They actually let the Saints back into the game and even trailed with just under four minutes remaining. While the Gaels should be commended for building the big lead, the close call shows that they probably should not be trusted laying this many points on the road. Tonight marks the team's third straight game away from home, by the way. Manhattan had also been hot at the betting window, but that was before they went out and shot only 26.3% from the field in Tuesday's loss at St. Peter's. That result guaranteed that the Jaspers won't be a top five seed come the MAAC Tourney. But, motivation should still be high tonight given that this is the final home game of the season. The team is a pretty solid 8-5 SU on its own floor and should bounce back offensively seeing as Iona is allowing 76.9 PPG away from home. Taking points at home, the Jaspers are a strong 6-1 at the betting window this season. 8* Manhattan |
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02-25-16 | Nets v. Suns +2 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): This is like choosing between the good, the bad and the ugly without the "good" part. The Suns enter this game on a 12-game losing streak and have just two wins since Christmas. Brooklyn actually has three wins in its last seven games overall, but all of them were at home. On the road, the Nets are just 4-20 straight up, so it speaks volumes (about the Suns) that they are actually favored in this spot. I believe (and so do my personal power ratings) that they should not be favored here. Believe it or not, but Phoenix was actually a 3.5-point favorite when these teams met in Brooklyn back in December 1st. Now, given the Nets won that game (94-91) outright, that was obviously a bad line. But it does not mean that we once again should find the road team favored in a battle of two of the worst four teams in the league. Take the points. Support for the Suns here is likely to be next to nil as they are coming off a horrendous 40-point loss to the Clippers. However, it's amazing how things can swing on a game by game basis in this league and one such example just took place last night w/ those Clippers losing outright (as 10.5-pt home favorites) to Denver (I nailed that one!). Phoenix, like Brooklyn, is a dreadful road team (just 4-23 SU), but here at home things are a little more respectable. They're being outscored by only 2.2 points per game. Compare that to Brooklyn's -8.5 PPG scoring differential on the road and you begin to see why I think this line stinks. As a home underdog, the Suns are 8-6 ATS this season. Brooklyn had yet to be in the role of favorite on the road until tonight. The Nets won't be back home until March 13, a stretch of nine straight road games. While they did cover Tuesday, that was because of a generous number against a red-hot Portland team (still lost by eight). Phoenix seems like it would be one of the more "desirable" destinations on this trip, but the Nets are just 4-14 SU (4-13 ATS) their last 18 visits here. The discrepancy in shooting percentages from the Suns' last game certainly should not be as extreme here as they were on the wrong end of 55% to 35.2% against the Clippers. Interim HC Earl Watson still has not won. He will here. 10* Phoenix |
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02-25-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Western Illinois +2.5 | Top | 87-75 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Western Illinois (9:00 ET): Back on February 6th, I played against IPFW (Indiana-Purdue Ft Wayne), noting they would be unable to maintain the nation's best ATS record (17-3 at the time). Sure enough, the Mastodons got blown out at North Dakota State, 62-46, arguably their worst performance of the season. They followed that up by failing to cover in an 88-84 home win over Denver in the next game. However, they've since covered their last two (both at home), one an upset (were +3.5) over South Dakota State and then the other a narrow win (by 4, laying 3.5) over Nebraska-Omaha. So, it's probably time to go against the Mastadons yet again as they are laying points on the road, something they've only been asked to do one time previously. Take the points. Western Illinois comes in off a bad 87-67 loss, here at home, to South Dakota State. Of course, the Jackrabbits were likely in a foul mood after being upset by IPFW just two days prior, a result that landed the Mastadons in first place (by their lonesome) in the Summit League. Western Illinois is at the other end of the spectrum (i.e. last place), which to some will make this short number rather curious. But you should note that IPFW has arguably been the "luckiest" team in the entire country w/ a ridiculous 13-1 SU record in games decided by six points or less. Simply put, they are due to drop one. Western Illinois may be just 6-5 SU at home, but is outscoring opponents by a healthy 8.4 PPG here as opponents are averaging only 64.7 PPG. Not included in IPFW's string of close wins was an 88-67 home victory over Western Illinois last month. But that game saw the Mastodons shoot nearly 56% from the field, something that is highly unlikely to be repeated here. Covering by just one-half point their last time out is so indicative of this season IPFW is having (made a free throw in the final seconds to cover). I just can't see it continuing though, especially seeing as they are allowing 77.9 PPG in conference play. It's interesting that despite a poor 9-16 SU overall record, Western Illinois has a point differential of a team that should be a lot closer to .500. The Leathernecks (one of the best nicknames in the sport!) are just as due to pull off an upset as IPFW is due to suffer one, so take the points. 10* Western Illinois |
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02-25-16 | Northern Kentucky v. Cleveland State | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
8* Cleveland State (7:30 ET): This is hardly the marquee matchup on Thursday's slate. But there actually is a ton of value here on an admittedly bad Cleveland State team that is suffering through quite the miserable season. The Vikings have just eight wins all season, but one of those came at the expense of tonight's opponent (Northern Kentucky), whom they downed on the road 70-65 (as 4-pt dogs) last month. Therefore, they certainly should be getting more credit from the oddsmakers tonight at home. But they're not due to suffering three straight blowout losses, the last two of which were on the road. Believe it or not, but CSU actually has not won a home game in over a month. They'll break that streak here. I have a friend that follows the Cleveland State program closely (season-ticket holder) and early on, he alerted me to the fact it was likely to be a tough year. Remember this program has suffered two key transfers, Trey Lewis to Louisville and Anton Grady to Wichita State (in retrospect, things didn't turn out so well for either player!). That left the cupboard rather bare for HC Gary Waters and while recent results are hardly inspiring, I think that a return home will bring a little bit of motivation. A Saturday/Monday trip through Wisconsin didn't go well, but Northern Kentucky is one the few teams in the Horizon League that CSU can actually beat. By the way, here at home they are holding opponents to just 63.9 points per game. Northern Kentucky is a Horizon League newcomer this year and like Cleveland State, things have not gone well for the Norse. They've lost four straight and will conclude their regular season w/ two more road games after falling by three at Wright State on Saturday. It was a cover (as 8.5-pt dogs) in that last game, but the fact remains the Norse are just 2-11 SU on the road this year, allowing 79.5 PPG and getting no help from the oddsmakers here. In that first meeting with Cleveland State, they allowed the Vikings to shoot 56.3% from three-point range. As a favorite/pick 'em, Northern Kentucky is a lousy 1-4-1 ATS this year. This will be a rare win for the home team. 8* Cleveland State |
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02-24-16 | Wisconsin v. Iowa -7.5 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
8* Iowa (9:00 ET): Interim Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard is getting a lot of praise for how he's handled a pretty tough situation in Madison (Bo Ryan stepped down mid-season) and he absolutely deserves said credit, particularly if the Badgers do get to the NCAA Tournament. The team has won eight of its last nine, the one loss coming at Michigan State, who is as hot as any team in the country right now. They'd actually previously beaten Sparty, not to mention Indiana (also at home) and Maryland (on the road) as well. But B2B non-covers seem to indicate that the market has begun to "catch up" and it will definitely be a challenge for Gard's team tonight in Iowa City where they'll find the #8 ranked team in the nation off an embarrassing loss that took place exactly one week ago. Yes, in the Notre Dame-Wake Forest analysis, I talk about how rankings can often artificially inflate pointspreads. But that's not the case here. Iowa has absolutely been one of the best teams in the country all season long and is at home tonight where they haven't lost in 13 tries and outscore opponents by an impressive 17 PPG margin. Coming off their second loss in the last three games, an outright one at that (were -9 at Penn State), I expect them to be very motivated here as they've had a full week to stew over what happened in State College. What happened was they allowed the Nittany Lions make 10 three-pointers. Consider that was the same team Iowa beat by 24 here in Iowa City earlier this month. There have been some troubling signs defensively of late, primarily in the two losses, but I'm confident the Hawkeyes will revert back to their season average of allowing only 66.5 PPG here at home (29.4% 3pt defense). Wisconsin hasn't shot the ball particularly well its last three games and on the road this season offense has been a problem. The team averages only 62.8 PPG outside of Madison on 39.1% shooting (just over 30% from 3-pt range). Though they've surprised under Gard, the Badgers are simply not in the same class as Iowa, who likely remembers what happened in LY's two meetings. They (the Hawkeyes) lost by a combined 43 points in the two games. So revenge will be on the mind here & I expect a big win. 8* Iowa |
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02-24-16 | Nuggets +10.5 v. Clippers | Top | 87-81 | Win | 102 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:35 ET): The Nuggets were, and I stress "were," 8-1 ATS over a nine-game stretch entering the All-Star Break. Yet there is/was no doubt that they still rate among the worst teams in the league, therefore it's been no surprise (at least to me) to see them having come out of the Break with three consecutive defeats, both straight up and against the spread. Two of them came to Sacramento, however, and last night's 114-110 loss (at home) as 2.5-pt chalk could certainly be categorized as a bit disappointing. I've made the case for many years now that teams playing in the second game of a back to back are often undervalued, particularly when they failed to cover the previous night. That is the case here. Take the points. Opposing Denver tonight will be the Clippers, who are now solidly a top five team in the league thanks to an incredible run w/o Blake Griffin. Somehow, the Clips have gone 20-6 w/o the services of their superstar (no, they are NOT a better team without him) and two losses since the Break have been by a total of eight points, one to Boston (in overtime) and the other to league-leading Golden State. Their last game saw them absolutely whitewash the Suns, 124-84 as 14.5-point chalk. They shot 55% from the floor compared to just 35% and the size of the blowout clearly has impacted tonight's spread. Recall that while I did cash LA in their three-point loss here at home to Golden State that they actually trailed by double digits late. It was the reserves that brought them in through the "proverbial" back door. Denver also rallied from a big deficit last night in the fourth quarter, only to ultimately come up short. They trailed the Kings by as many as 17, but were able to momentarily take back the lead in the fourth quarter. Rarely will you ever read me using the term "momentum," but I look for a little bit of a carryover effect for the Nuggets from last night's rally. Historically, the team has done quite well in this price range as they are 16-4 ATS the L20 times they've been a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points, including a perfect 5-0 this season alone! Leading scorer Danillo Gallinari should start to see his own personal shooting get better after making only 38 percent of his field goal attempts the L6 games. 8* Denver |
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02-24-16 | Arizona v. Colorado +6 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
8* Colorado (9:00 ET): #9 Arizona finds itself tied atop the Pac 12 standings (w/ Oregon) after winning six straight, the last game being a complete blowout. Sean Miller's Wildcats thrashed in-state rival Arizona State, 99-61 as 12.5-pt chalk, a full week ago. But now they have to hit the road where four of their five losses this season have occurred and end up in Boulder where host Colorado has been more than just a "tough out." The Buffaloes are 14-1 SU on their home court this season, the lone loss coming at the hands of Utah by just two points (a game that saw them blow a 9-pt second half lead). The Buffs are going to be happy to be back at home as they've lost four straight on the road, including their last two overall. Take the points here. Colorado's most recent result was very different than that of Arizona's as the Buffs were blown out Saturday at UCLA, 77-53, a game where they were only five-point dogs. The two respective teams here being off very different results (opposite ends of blowouts) plays to our advantage tonight as we are now able to get a ton of value on a team that is 14-1 SU at home. How often do I preach to "sell" on good news and to "buy low" on bad news? Consider that the CU has not been a home underdog at any other point this season and is outscoring its opponents here by 14.1 points per game. While still projected to be a NCAA Tournament team by most everyone (somewhere between an 8 to 12 seed), the Buffs' status is getting a bit precarious and another loss might have them firmly on the bubble, if they're already not there. Simply put, a win tonight would go a LONG way. After shooting a blistering 57% from the floor against ASU, it will be difficult for Arizona to be that sharp again here, especially after a longer than usual layoff. At the same time, we should see Colorado shoot better than the 32.3% clip we saw from the Sun Devils last Wednesday, especially because the Buffs only shot 31.1% (season-low) themselves in the loss to UCLA. CU is due to break out offensively, in my opinion, and they are the Pac 12's second best rebounding team in terms of margin. They are also holding opponents to just 39.9 percent shooting here in Boulder. 8* Colorado |
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02-24-16 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7 | Top | 69-58 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (9:00 ET): The polls (Top 25) can have quite the influence on a given pointspread. But the bottom line is that linesmakers pay little attention to them and have their own set of rankings that are far more reliable. The reality of the matter is that when the public sees the little number next to a team and nothing next to the opponent, the assumption is the former is significantly better. But all too often, this fallacy proves to be wrong. Now, I'm clearly not going to make the case that Wake Forest has been a better team than Notre Dame this year, but the Demon Deacons have certainly been unlucky. In terms of strength of schedule, most rating systems I've seen say that no team has faced a more difficult slate of opponents. They finally broke through with a win over the weekend, and a big one at that (albeit over lowly Boston College), so I say take the points here in what should be a close game. It seems like a long time ago now, but the Demon Deacons do hold non-conference victories over UCLA, Indiana and LSU. They also took Xavier, at the time unbeaten, to the limit here in Winston-Salem. Unfortunately, ACC play has been far less kind to them as there have been a number of close losses (four by 5 pts or less) and they've had to play all the top teams at least once. Taking its frustrations out on overmatched Boston College Sunday, Wake saw four players finish in double figures as they rolled to a 74-48 victory as nine-point favorites here at home. They did not fare well in the first meeting w/ Notre Dame this year, losing 85-62 (as 10-point pups) up in South Bend. But that game saw them shoot just 25% from three-point range. Yes, Wake will again be w/o its leading scorer, Devin Thomas. But they didn't have him Sunday and other players managed to step up. I expect the same thing to happen here. Notre Dame could also be w/o one of their key contributors, Zach Auguste, who injured his knee in the last game. He's currently listed as questionable. The Fighting Irish lost Saturday, 63-62 at Georgia Tech (were 3-pt favorites) and are now just 5-7 SU for the year outside of South Bend. I mentioned earlier that Wake shot poorly from three-point range the first time these teams played. That's atypical for Notre Dame opponents, who are shooting 39% from behind the arc for the season. Using the line from last month's meeting, this one seems like a great value by comparison. The Demon Deacons are only being outscored by 3.3 PPG here at home while Notre Dame is only +0.3 PPG for the year on the road. 8* Wake Forest |
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02-24-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -8 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Sure, the Grizzlies - in terms of actual vs expected wins - are technically one of the most overachieving teams in the league (point differential of a 25-win team). They also just lost - as 7.5-pt dogs - in Toronto. But that negative point differential and corresponding low expected win total still has a lot to do with some ugly, early season results where they were on the wrong end of blowouts. Even though the Lakers are 7-1 ATS here in February, I still have them ranked at the bottom of my own personal power rankings as they're being outscored by a league worst 10.8 points per 100 possessions. Much of that negative margin has to do w/ their awful defense. I played against them Sunday in Chicago, saying that line should have been double digits and the same assertion applies here. Lay the points. Though 7-1 against the spread this month, the Lakers have lost their last six games straight up. After falling in Chicago Sunday, they came back and stayed within a generous nine-point number in Milwaukee, losing "only" 108-101. By comparison, this line looks low as I don't think you can make a case that the Bucks are better than the Grizzlies. It also must be pointed out that the Lakers ended up outscoring the Bucks 36-18 in the fourth quarter Monday, meaning that they were down 25 at the end of three. Kobe Bryant again shot the ball poorly (what a surprise!) and only got to 15 points because he was 8 of 9 from the free throw line. Throughout the year, I've referenced the Lakers' odious defense, which now gives up 109.1 points per game on the road & is last in terms of efficiency. They've allowed over 118 PPG over their last four contests overall. Memphis had won seven of nine before losing "North of the Border" Sunday. They'd averaged an impressive 105.5 PPG their L14 games, most of those games coming w/ Marc Gasol (now out) in the lineup, mind you, yet I look for them to bounce back here after shooting just 3 of 20 from three-point range against the Raptors (Lakers allowing 47.4 3-pt % L4 games). The Grizz shot better than 56% against LA when they beat them here back in December, 112-96 as 9.5-pt chalk. The team still is 2-1 w/o Gasol, scoring 109 pts in both wins. 10* Memphis |
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02-22-16 | Warriors v. Hawks +7.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): Bucking conventional wisdom a bit, I feel that's it time to start going against Golden State. I did so on Saturday night and while it admittedly took a miracle (13-0 late Clippers run), the result was a winning ticket nonetheless. The Warriors are just now under 60 percent ATS for the season (30-22-2) and that's after cashing at a 57.2% ATS clip in their Championship season last year. Clearly, "the cat is out the bag," with this team as they are striving to break the 95-96 Bulls single season WL record of 72-10. So there should be a ton of value in going against them moving forward, especially when laying this many points on the road (where all five of their SU losses have occurred). Take the points here. Atlanta is a desperate team right now, so we're going to get a home dog giving maximum effort. Following the All-Star Break, the Hawks have dropped B2B games here at home and given up a ton of points in the process. Granted, Saturday's loss to Milwaukee came via double overtime, but neither the Bucks nor the Heat (who beat the Hawks the night prior) are considered offensive juggernauts. It took a 26-19 fourth quarter to even force extra time against Milwaukee, not a good sign, but one positive takeaway is that the Hawks missed a shocking 32 of 41 three-point attempts in that game, something that is not likely to be repeated any time soon. In my analysis Saturday, I talked about the problems that the Warriors have had defensively of late as their last five opponents are averaging 114.2 points per game. Though Golden State is battling San Antonio for the top spot in the West (currently three games up) as well as chasing history, the sense of urgency for Atlanta here will certainly be greater. The Hawks have fallen into sixth in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture. Obviously, we all knew that the team wouldn't come close to matching LY's surprising 60-win total, but the recent decline is a bit concerning. Still, this is an unprecedented price range for them at home (this season) and it should be pointed out that they did beat the Warriors last season here. Golden State is thin in the middle right now (why they signed the recently released Anderson Varejao) and has a losing ATS record vs. the Eastern Conference. Their average scoring differential on the road is in single digits. 10* Atlanta |
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02-22-16 | Raptors v. Knicks +4 | Top | 122-95 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): The Knicks snapped an ugly seven-game SU/ATS slide w/ a 103-95 win at Minnesota on Saturday (were +2.5 at the betting window). Now they return home to take on Toronto, who finds themselves in a pretty tricky spot, laying points no less. The Raptors made a brief stop back home on Sunday, beating Memphis 98-85 as 7.5-point chalk. That was predated by six-game road trek that took them all over the U.S. and now it's back "South of the Border" for yet another away game. Toronto is 0-4 ATS this season as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and is 0-2 ATS against the Knicks, having lost outright to them earlier in the year and then winning by "just" 10 (were -12) last month. Both of those games were in Toronto. Take the points here. The Knicks falling out of contention can be traced to Carmelo Anthony being absent from the lineup. When Anthony hasn't played, the team is 0-7 straight up. When he's on the floor, they're a respectable 24-26 SU. Anthony led the way w/ 30 points & 11 rebounds in Minnesota Saturday and the Knicks wound up building a lead as large as 24 points in the second half. Him being back also helps rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who struggled when having to shoulder the offensive burden. I think that New York will be just fine offensively in this contest as remember Toronto is still without one of its better defenders, DeMarre Carroll. Keeping opponents off the glass is something the Knicks have done well recently as opponents are averaging only 44.8 rebounds the L5 games. Many times, I will make the case that a team playing w/o rest is undervalued, especially when on the road. But being asked to lay points, that is not the case here with Toronto. The Raptors last two road games have seen them give up a ton of points (233 to be exact). The defense was obviously much better last night, but that was against an opponent (Grizzlies) that was w/o perhaps its best player (Marc Gasol) and not particularly strong offensively to begin with. The Raptors' own scoring has been up the L5 games (105.8 PPG) and should start to decrease moving forward (did last night). Look for the home dog to keep this one close throughout and possibly pull the outright upset for interim HC Kurt Rambis. 8* New York |
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02-22-16 | Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -1 | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): The 'Canes are off a blowout loss on Saturday (96-71 at North Carolina), but thankfully are back in Coral Gables as they get set for yet another ACC matchup w/ a Top 10 opponent. This time, it's Virginia, who has covered four straight and won eight of its last nine straight up (only loss by 1 at Duke). Miami has lost three straight in this conference rivalry, including 66-58 in Charlottesville last month, but due to both that result and Saturday's game we're able to get a ton of value here. The "U" was a 4.5 pt dog when they visited UVA on January 12th and given the close nature of that contest, should be favored by more here. Lay the small number. What a difference a month or so makes. When these teams last played, Miami was the higher ranked team and Virginia was off B2B losses. Playing w/ a sense of desperation there, UVA shot 51.1 percent in the contest and held the Hurricanes to just 6 of 22 shooting from three-point range after HC Tony Bennett made some changes to his starting lineup. Since then, Bennett's Cavaliers have lost only two times, the next game (at Florida State) and the aforementioned defeat at Duke. As that illustrates, on the road, the Cavs simply aren't as strong. They're just 4-5 SU in "true" road games, including four losses in ACC play, and are 3-6 against the spread. The team did get the weekend off after destroying NC State seven days ago, but that result and the time off have caused a needless reduction in the line, in my opinion. In that first meeting, Virginia went 16 of 21 from the free throw line while Miami was just 10 of 17. That kind of performance is highly irregular for the 'Canes as they come into tonight ranked 12th nationally in FT percentage (75.1%) and average 10.3 more points per game at the charity stripe than their opponents this season. So look for that discrepancy to be rectified here. It was also Miami's lowest point total of the season to date against Virginia the first time. Saturday happened to be their worst defensive effort of the season (trailed by as many as 38!). The bottom line here is I look for the Canes, one of the top teams in the country, to revert back to their 'usual selves,' particularly leading scorer Sheldon McClellan. 8* Miami FL |
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02-21-16 | Lakers v. Bulls -7 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): Something that has really caught me off-guard is the Lakers' recent improved play. I still have them rated as the worst team in the league, mind you, but their current six-game ATS win streak is worth mentioning. But, it's not something I see continuing after tonight. I think it bears repeating that despite the 6-0 ATS run, I still have LA rated #30 and that's mainly because what a disaster they've been on the defensive end of the floor where they allow a ghastly 108.5 points per 100 possessions. I was shocked that they were able to stay competitive with San Antonio Friday night (scored 113 points), but I see those offensive numbers regressing and as I'm about to go through, this line is a tremendous value. Lay the points. It wasn't all that long ago that these two teams first met. The end result was a 114-91 Bulls victory, but what's really noteworthy there is that Chicago closed at -8.5, meaning we are now able to lay FEWER points with them at home than we would have had to on the road less than a month ago! The oddsmakers decision is especially curious when you consider the blowout nature of that first meeting (23-point margin). Yes, I'm well aware of the fact that Chicago is currently w/o the services of Jimmy Butler, who scored 26 points and had 10 assists on January 28th. But, just two nights ago, we saw other players step up in an impressive 116-106 win over the Raptors. Most notable was the 30 points from Doug McDermott, which likely won't be duplicated here, but still there's ample room for the rest of the team to improve. Everyone not named "McDermott" or "Rose" combined to go just 23 of 56 from the floor Friday night. So, I look for someone else (former Laker Pau Gasol?) to step up here. Again, the Lakers are just heinous defensively. They've somehow gotten away with allowing a total of 239 points the L2 games and still covered both times. That was due to some atypical strong offensive showings, but that won't last as we know Kobe Bryant is the worst jump shooter in the league and Chicago is holding teams to just 42.4% shooting here at the United Center. Again, the key here is the number, which is somehow less than what the Bulls were asked to lay in Los Angeles less than a month ago. 10* Chicago |
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02-21-16 | Wichita State v. Indiana State +11.5 | Top | 84-51 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10* Indiana State (4:00 ET): As I had previously projected, Wichita State's dominance over the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference has tapered off a bit w/ two outright losses in the last five games. However, they stepped out of conference on Monday and regained lost form by destroying New Mexico State, 71-41. Then came another blowout at home, this time 99-68 over Missouri State, which was the Shockers' highest scoring game to date. So, it's no surprise that the oddsmakers are back on their bandwagon here for a visit to Terre Haute. But despite the fact they beat Indiana State by 20 earlier in the year, I'd be leery of laying this many points against what will be a desperate Sycamores team in front of a red hot crowd. Especially considering this is Wichita State's third game in seven days. Take the points. Indiana State, meanwhile, is a team that oddsmakers have likely cooled off on. That's because of a six-game ATS losing streak that's seen them lose outright four times and then get blown out (by 28) at Illinois State earlier this week. Still though, when you're able to get a team in almost an identical price range at home as you were on the road (ISU was +14.5 at Wichita in 1st meeting), I think you have to take advantage. The Sycamores are a lot better here in Terre Haute where they are holding opponents under 40% shooting (39.%) and to only 63.7 points per game. We clearly have yet to see them in this kind of price range at home, in fact, just one time all season have they taken more than five points at home all season. They covered (vs. a good Valparaiso team) and are now a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog after outright upsets of both Northern Iowa and Evansville, games the Sycamores won by double digits. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, but a big difference was Wichita State finishing w/ a +10 edge in free throws made as they had more makes from the charity stripe than Indiana State had attempts. That kind of edge is often prevalent when you're the home team, but the Shockers can't count on it this time around. While Wichita State has obviously been favored in every conference game this season, Indiana State has also been favored in a majority of theirs and again, suffered five straight (ATS) losses as chalk (not normal) prior to Wednesday night's debacle in Normal. They shot a season-low 25.4 percent from the floor at Illinois State, a percentage that I guarantee will increase dramatically here while WSU will not come close to duplicating its near 60% shooting effort from its last game. 10* Indiana State |
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02-20-16 | Warriors v. Clippers +5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): I think that most will see Golden State coming off that ugly loss last night in Portland and want to automatically back them here as they're laying just a small number on the road. But that would be a mistake in my estimation. This is a rare time when my power ratings feel that the Warriors aren't undervalued as the Clippers have been a hot team (winning 20 of 25) and they just crushed the Spurs here, 105-86 on Thursday night. Given that result, plus the fact the Clips rarely are afforded the opportunity to take this many points at home, I have no choice but to back them here as they are rested and the Warriors are not, which I do think makes a big difference in such a marquee matchup. Take the points. Golden State has now failed to cover the spread in three straight games and particularly concerning is the fact they are giving up a lot of points recently. Their last five opponents have averaged 116 points per game and while they've been fortunate enough to score 118, that's still a pretty razor thin margin. I admittedly made a mistake backing San Antonio in a similar spot last night (laying points w/o rest). It is going to be difficult moving forward for both the Warriors and Spurs to maintain the blistering pace set in the first half of the season where they outscored foes by more than 12 points per game and covered more than 60 percent of their games. I'm well aware of the fact that Golden State hasn't dropped B2B games all season, but it's troubling that they allow more than 107 PPG on the road. Also troubling were the 13 turnovers in the third quarter last night. The Warriors are always going to get a team's best shot, but in particular tonight has to be a game the Clippers have had circled for some time. LA has lost five straight to their division rivals, including by seven here at home earlier this season and by four in Oakland just days before. Both games were played all the way back in November, so a lot has changed since then, particularly with the Clippers, who have caught fire despite not having Blake Griffin. That home loss to the Warriors earlier in the year was particularly painful because the Clips led by as many as 23 in the second half! But they know they can beat this team, whose five losses this year have all come on the road. 8* LA Clippers |
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02-20-16 | Santa Clara v. Pepperdine -9.5 | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET): This is one matchup where I feel that the revenge angle is worth endorsing. Pepperdine, as a three-point road favorite, got beat by Santa Clara earlier this season 62-60. That game was decided on a last-second three-pointer by the Broncos' Jared Brownridge. It was not a particularly good spot for the Waves either as the game previous saw them pull a big upset of St. Mary's, as eight-point dogs. Perhaps you recall it was just last Saturday when I went against the Waves in a similar spot (off an upset of St. Mary's) and they failed to cover laying points at Pacific. But here it's a different story as they followed that up by losing to San Francisco (outright) as 8.5-point home favorites Thursday. I'll call for a bounce back here. I've had a good read on when to play against Pepperdine thus far. Not only did I cash a winning ticket against them last Saturday, but nine days earlier I also went against them and won, that time cashing Portland outright as a 10-point dog. It should be noted, however, that before that loss the team had covered five in a row including a four-game SU win streak. Things then went downhill a bit, but then they upset St. Mary's again. This team's chances of finishing in the top four in the WCC took a bit of hit with Thursday's loss to San Francisco, who pulled away late. But, of the Waves last five conference losses, three were by three points or less. So that record could conceivably be a lot better. They haven't been great at the betting window when favored so far, but this line is a bit of a bargain. Tonight marks the dreaded second road game in three nights for Santa Clara. Somewhat surprisingly, they've fared pretty well in this situation previously. But coming off an upset of Loyola Marymount (who was missing its leading scorer/rebounder), it's difficult to imagine a second straight quality showing. The Broncos have allowed their last two opponents to shoot over 50% for the game. Somehow, LMU only got to the free throw line a total of SIX times on Thursday! A real key here is that Pepperdine is holding visitors to just 30.2% shooting here at home for the season, including 25.8% from three-point range. 10* Pepperdine |
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02-20-16 | Missouri v. Arkansas -11 | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
8* Arkansas (7:30 ET): When the Hogs pulled off a 74-71 upset of then #5 Texas A&M (I was on it!) back on January 27th, things appeared to be trending in a very positive direction in Fayetteville. In fact, the Razorbacks would go on to cover their next three games as well, including a blowout of Tennessee. But, all of a sudden, the team has now dropped three in a row, the latest coming as big 16.5-point favorites at home vs. Auburn on Wednesday night. This, in my opinion, has led to a massive swoon in value that we can now take advantage of tonight. Consider that they last time the Hogs faced Missouri, they won 94-61 and that was in Columbia. So, I wouldn't be the least bit concerned about having to lay double digits here. That first meeting was an absolute bloodbath with Arkansas shooting 62.7% (school record for an SEC game) overall, handing Missouri its worst ever home loss. The Tigers failed to even make a single basket over the first 6:32 of the game. Obviously, replicating such a one-sided performance will be somewhat difficult, but those banking on the revenge angle need to be aware that Mizzou has not won a single game on the road all season! You read that correctly. They are 0-11 SU outside of Columbia, 0-8 SU in "true" road games, while getting outscored by 16.3 points per game. After opening SEC play 1-10 straight up, they've bounced back with consecutive outright victories. But just like Arkansas' recent from, that has given us some better value for this rematch. This is the first time in two seasons under HC Kim Anderson that Missouri has won B2B SEC games. They shot lights out (54.5%) in the win over Tennessee last Saturday and both the Vols and South Carolina (who Mizzou beat Tuesday) shot well below 40 percent from the field. With the Arkansas offense averaging a strong 85.9 PPG here in Fayetteville on 47.7% shooting, I look for the tables to turn. Note that the Razorbacks let Auburn shoot better than 60% from the floor Wednesday and the two games prior saw them unable to make anything, especially in a dismal effort at Mississippi State where they finished 16 of 72 from the field. I'm talking simple regression to the mean here and we can lean on the fact the Razorbacks are a strong 5-1 ATS in this price range (-9.5 to -12) at home the L3 seasons. 8* Arkansas |
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02-20-16 | Troy State v. Appalachian State -3.5 | Top | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
10* Appalachian State (3:30 ET): Anytime, I type the name of "App State," the first thing that comes to mind will always be the football team upsetting Michigan back in '07. But here, as a favorite, the basketball team seems like a pretty good value too. The Mountaineers, just 6-20 SU on the year, are certainly reeling w/ the last six games all ending up as losses. But not only did they lose as a six-point choice here at home to South Alabama on Thursday; two of their three games previous to that saw them lose by exactly one point. Contrast that with the fortune of today's opponent, Troy, who has two one-point VICTORIES over its last four games, plus another close decision that went their way earlier in the week, a 61-54 upset of aforementioned South Alabama, as a 2.5-point dog on the road. I think it's time for the tables to turn in this Sun Belt matchup. Lay the short number. Appalachian State's last win actually came at the expense of Troy. It was back on January 28th when they pulled a 75-71 upset as 3.5 point road underdogs, 75-71. Overall, they shot the ball much better than the Trojans in that game. Curiously, the Mountaineers are just 3-7 SU at home despite averaging 76.8 points per game, which is well above their overall season average. They are basically dead even in points scored vs. allowed here, so there's been some close defeats, including a one-point loss to LA Monroe their last time here. There was another one-point loss back on January 25th (101-100) vs. Georgia Southern (no overtime!) that saw them blow a five-point lead w/ just under one minute remaining. So while the record looks bad, there have been a number of games that could have easily gone the Mounties' way. They are 1-7 SU in games decided by six points or less, the only win coming against today's opponent, Troy. As for Troy, they have pulled off a total of three upsets in the last four games alone w/ those victories coming by a total of six points. So, you can see the thin line that exists between the two teams' recent form. Prior to taking three of the last four games, the Trojans had dropped nine of ten, so they were due for a little "market correction" themselves and responded accordingly. Now, it App State's turn. Troy is only 8 for its last 30 ATS against teams with a losing record (1-8 ATS this season) and they have benefited greatly from terrible shooting from their opponents the L2 games. Appalachian State is due to improve from B2B games where they shot only 30 percent from the field. 10* Appalachian State |
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02-20-16 | Xavier v. Georgetown +4.5 | Top | 88-70 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (12:00 ET): We know the struggles that highly ranked teams have had not only covering, but even winning outright, against unranked foes this season. One of those situations presents itself early Saturday w/ Xavier paying a visit to D.C. to face Georgetown. Now, the Hoyas have already upset the current 8th ranked team in the country, in Cincinnati, 81-72 (+9.5). So, by comparison, this line looks like a real bargain. Granted, G'town has had its fair share of struggles of late. They just lost here at home earlier in the week, as a 2.5 point favorite, to Seton Hall and that makes it five losses in the last six games overall for them. But with the exception of an 87-76 defeat at the hands of Butler, they've been close virtually every time. Take the points here. Xavier is a team currently getting plenty of "run" for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and that's probably based on their record (now 23-3 SU). But I'm not so sure they are deserving of that distinction. The Musketeers have survived their fair share of close calls this season, although I concede that they did look impressive earlier this week in dispatching of Providence. But the 52 pts scored in the first half there were their second most all season before halftime. There were also a number of individual performances unlikely to be duplicated here. One came from Myles Davis, who delivered a triple double. Another was from Trevon Bluiett, who scored 17 points alone in the first half (finished w/ 23). That's more than he'd registered in six of the last seven games. Those banking on the revenge angle here best think again as the Musketeers are 0-4 ATS the L3 seasons seeking revenge for a home loss. This is also a massive lookahead as they have another revenge game, this one vs. #1 Villanova, looming on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Georgetown couldn't seem to buy a shot on Wednesday in their second poor shooting effort of the season against Seton Hall. Their top two scorers were a combined 10 of 31 from the field, including 2 of 13 from three-point range. This is a team that averages 8.2 made three-pointers per game, most in the Big East. They shot 51% from the field against Xavier last month, including 10 of 25 from three-point range. A 2-6 SU record in games decided by five points or less indicates this team is more "unlucky" than bad and they're certainly more than capable of upsetting a slightly overrated Xavier team for a second time this season. 8* Georgetown |
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02-19-16 | Celtics v. Jazz | Top | 93-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:35 ET): Well, look at this. I went AGAINST the Jazz last night as they played a "make up game" in Washington and wound up losing, 103-89, a game the oddsmakers had as a virtual Pick 'em. The same holds true tonight, but the (big) difference is that Utah is back at home where they are a strong 17-10 straight up (just 9-17 SU on the road) including five straight wins here. Defense is another key here. I wrote in yday's analysis how the Jazz's defensive numbers slip considerably when out on the road. But here at home, they're allowing just 93.4 points per game, a major reason why they are #3 in the league in PPG allowed. That comes in handy here against a Boston team that's due to decline offensively after averaging a stunning 116.8 PPG its last five games. Look for Utah to bounce back tonight. Now the Celtics offensive numbers are clearly a bit skewed based on their final game before the All-Star Break where they had to go to overtime to beat the Clippers, 139-134. Overall, it was their ninth win in the last 11 games. What's odd, however, is how much better Brad Stevens' team seems to perform when playing w/o rest. They are 9-4 ATS in those games, but only 22-19-1 ATS in all others. The three-year trend, which encompasses Stevens' entire tenure, is something similar. I like this team and have them rated as the third best in the East. But defensively, the number of points allowed recently has not been good and I cannot see them continuing to maintain that blistering pace we've seen on offense. Utah is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite (were bet to that role late vs. Washington last night). Going back to the final game before the Break, they've now dropped B2B games, but before that had won seven in a row and that streak coincided with the return of a healthy Rudy Gobert. Now they've brought Shelvin Mack into the fold to address the lack of depth at point guard. This is a team whose underachieved as the Jazz have the point differential of a 29-win team, which would be fifth best in the West. They are undervalued overall, but especially tonight, which is something we often see when a team is playing in the second night of back to backs. 10* Utah |
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02-19-16 | Spurs -11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (10:35 ET): The Spurs are off a loss here (and a bad one at that), so you know what that means. Take them! This season, when off a loss, Greg Popovich's crew is a ridiculous 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread with an average point differential of +20.6 points per game. When playing w/o rest, they are 10-0 SU and outscoring their opponents by 12.9 PPG. So history is certainly on San Antonio's side here and it's a very favorable draw in terms of opponent as well with this matchup against the Lakers. Remember, no travel is involved here for the Spurs as they played at Staples Center last night. The Lakers, who covered their last five games before the All-Star Break, are clearly due for a downturn. Lay the points here. With the decision to rest Kawhi Leonard last night, it almost seemed as if Popovich was "conceding" one to the Clippers. The 86 points the team scored were their second fewest in a game all season, only ahead of a X-Mas night loss at Houston. The 34 first half points did mark a season-low and note that it was just the fourth time all year that they did not lead in the 1H. Leonard (calf) is listed as questionable for tonight, but with or without him, look for a defensive improvement here from the Spurs. They have given up an average of 98.8 points per game the L5 contests, yet remain - by far and away - #1 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency as their 95.4 points allowed per 100 possessions is nearly four points better than the #2 team. That's the same gap that exists between the #2 and #16 ranked teams. The Lakers are last in the league in terms of defensive efficiency, allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions. Despite the five-game ATS win streak, I still have the Lakers rated last in my own personal power ratings. They are being outscored by 10.7 points per 100 possessions (league worst) while San Antonio is +13.4 in that department, second best in the league (trailing only Golden State). I still feel that this spread should be closer to -20! Taking bigger numbers, the Lakers have covered the last two times they've played the Spurs. But San Antonio still remains the league's best ATS team (34-20) and is still slightly ahead of the Warriors in YTD point differential. 8* San Antonio |
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02-19-16 | Rockets v. Suns +8 | Top | 116-100 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:35 ET): Over the last two months, there hasn't been a team any worse than the Suns, who are a ghastly 2-24 straight up over their last 26 games including nine straight losses coming into tonight. As expected, the team finally rid itself of Markief Morris, trading him to the Wizards. A fresh start is probably best for both parties. Before you go writing off Phoenix here, be aware that I did take them when they last hosted Houston, which was earlier this month. Taking a smaller number, they did cover and actually led outright in the fourth quarter. Though they've lost five in a row at home, the Suns remain far more respectable here compared to on the road. As I've said many times throughout the year, Houston simply isn't very good and is undeserving of this price range, particularly on the road. Take the points. Although it appears that they did not want to, Houston will be keeping Dwight Howard for the rest of the year. Personally, I was not surprised to see the market so cold for him. But the bottom line here is that with or without Howard, the returns here have been incredibly disappointing. The Rockets have the point differential of only a 24-win team. They're quite lucky that the Western Conference is much weaker this year. Laying points, the record is just 14-21 against the spread and that includes 0-2 on the road when laying somewhere between -6.5 and -9. Defensively, this team is a disaster as it gives up 108.6 points per game on the road. Only Sacramento is worse overall on that end of the floor. The win earlier in February over Phoenix represents one of just two victories the Rockets have over their last eight games. Over its last six games, believe it or not, the Suns have been rather competitive. A 91-78 loss to Dallas on January 31st was totally misleading as they actually led outright in the fourth quarter, similar to when they hosted Houston. They've also covered at Toronto. Their last two games were against Oklahoma City and Golden State, two of the top three teams in the league, and it was actually a four-point game entering the fourth quarter against the former while they covered vs. the latter. What I'm saying is that the Suns are getting closer under interim HC Earl Watson and here is where they may very well break through w/ their first SU win for him. 8* Phoenix |
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02-19-16 | Heat +9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
8* Miami (8:05 ET): The line here is high due to the fact the Heat will be w/o Chris Bosh and probably Hassan Whiteside as well. But, as I often say, it's wise to "buy low" on bad news and that's what we have here, so let's take advantage accordingly. Both the Heat and Hawks had somewhat disappointing first halves to the season and I simply do not believe Atlanta deserves to be in this price range against any decent foe. The line is clearly affected here by Bosh's absence as my own personal power ratings say this number should be closer to -5.5 if both teams were at full strength. I'm not sure Bosh is worth a full four points. Note that the underdog has won straight up each of the previous three matchups between these two this season, Miami taking the last two. Take the points. Miami drew a couple of tough opponents at home right before the All-Star Break, the Clippers and San Antonio, and lost to both. Those results also serve to drive up the number here. I'd like to see the Heat get back to playing better defense as over the L5 games, they're allowing an average of 103.8 points per game. That's way above their season average of 96.3 PPG allowed, which is the lowest in the entire Eastern Conference (#2 overall in the league). Note that at no point this season have the Heat allowed 100+ points in three straight games. They've allowed 100 and 119 the L2 games, so the improvement I'm looking for should be coming. The Hawks have yet to crack the 100-point barrier against the Heat this season, scoring 98, 88 and 87 points. Atlanta got swept in a home and home by Orlando, but then closed its first half by blowing out the Bulls (in Chicago), 113-90. There was a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this team at the trade deadline as rumors were abound that the core would be broken up. No such thing happened, but still I wonder if the mentality of the front office starts to "trickle down" to the court. Working on three or more days rest, the Hawks are 1-3 SU/ATS while getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. They've also struggled in division games, getting outscored despite a winning record. Offensive numbers are set to decrease here as well after averaging 108.6 PPG their last five. 8* Miami |
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02-19-16 | Dartmouth v. Cornell -1.5 | Top | 78-66 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cornell (7:00 ET): To many, this is nothing more than a matchup of Ivy League bottom feeders, but I see a ton of value on the Big Red here. They beat Dartmouth earlier in the year, 77-73 as 3.5-pt road underdogs. Therefore, it's difficult to understand why they're not getting more credit for being the home team in this rematch. I suppose part of the reason has to be a four-game losing streak, including an outright loss here to Penn last Saturday. But again, a team coming off an outright loss at home should be expected to bounce back their next time out, especially if at home yet again. Dartmouth, though off a double-digit win over Brown (again affecting line here), is nothing special and is a terrible 1-9 SU on the road this season. Lay the short number. Dartmouth had lost five in a row before winning Saturday. That victory over Brown was just their second in Ivy League play as they became the last team in the league to reach that benchmark. It was easily their most impressive performance against a conference opponent as well as they shot 50% overall and dominated Brown on the boards. But these Friday games that the Ivy League always plays haven't treated the Big Green well recently as they're 4-14 L18 ATS including 0-4 ATS this season. Overall, this team is just 18-34 ATS its last 52 games. As I mentioned earlier, they have been dreadful on the road, going 1-9 SU, a mark which includes an 0-7 mark vs. lined opponents. That one road win came at the expense of Maine back in December. The final score from Cornell's last game was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was the largest deficit (eight points) the Big Red faced against Penn. The 56 points allowed after halftime was troubling, but note that Penn had a player go for a career-high. This will be just the third time that Cornell has been favored this season, but again, taking into account the result of that first meeting vs. Dartmouth, they should be favored by more. Their defense is generally much better here at home and I see their own shooting improving as well (just 40.8% in conference play). On the road, Dartmouth allows its opponents to make 49.9% from the field, including 38.6% from three-point range. 8* Cornell |
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02-18-16 | UC-Davis v. Cal Poly -9 | Top | 53-58 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
8* Cal Poly SLO (10:00 ET): At first glance, Cal Poly doesn't seem like a team you'd want to lay this many points with, home or not, especially following a high-scoring effort like the one they just turned in on Saturday (beat UC Riverside 86-78). The Mustangs are only 9-15 SU for the year, below .500 here at home and 0 for their last 6 against the spread following an 80+ point performance. But if you look a little more closely, there's something rather interesting going on with the line here. Despite receiving very little support from bettors, the number has moved up. That's a clear indication to me that the so-called "smart money" is on the home favorite here. Lay the points. The Big West is not a strong league this year. Only three teams are above .500 in conference play. Cal Davis is not one of them as they just lost 57-48 at home to Long Beach State over the weekend. While it might seem reasonable to call for a bounce-back type performance from the Aggies after shooting a woeful 34.7% from the field Saturday, poor offensive showings have been all too common for this team. Saturday was the third time in the last four games they were held under 60 points and 35% shooting. That's not a good sign considering a 1-5 ATS record this season after scoring 60 pts or less. For the year, the Aggies are only 2-9 SU away from home while averaging just 62.3 points per game. This will be a revenge spot for Cal Poly, who lost 66-52 in Davis last month. They were four-point favorites there and it ended up being their lowest scoring game in Big West play to date. Because of that result, the market has shifted too much against them for the rematch. Yes, they'd dropped five in a row before Saturday's win, but three of those losses were by six points or less. What's more telling though is that they've lost five in a row to UC Davis (also 0-5 ATS) and in four of those games they were the favorite. That won't happen again here. 8* Cal Poly SLO |
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02-18-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Georgia State +5.5 | Top | 57-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
8* Georgia State (7:30 ET): GSU backers are not doing very well right now as their team has dropped NINE in a row at the betting window and all but two of those games have also resulted in straight up defeats. A visit from Sun Belt leader Arkansas Little-Rock may not sound especially promising, but I think that the points are in this Thursday night matchup. Note that Georgia State's last two games were both one-point losses where they were favored on the road. In fact, they've been favored in all but one of the nine games during this monumental ATS slide, that being when they played at...Arkansas Little Rock. The spread for that game was +7.5, so by comparison this number looks like a bargain even though GSU lost that first matchup by 10. Take the points here. Arkansas Little Rock has just two league losses all season and its 22-3 SU record has them behind only Villanova and Xavier for the best current win percentage in the entire country. This Trojans team is excellent defensively (just 58.6 PPG allowed), but as you might have guessed, their overall scoring margin isn't nearly as impressive on the road. They are off a 68-64 upset at UL-Lafayette (were 3.5-pt dogs). But what's interesting is that they have failed to cover each of the last four times they have had to lay points on the SBC road, including two outright losses. One of those came last Saturday at LA Monroe, 86-82. That makes this the Trojans' third straight road game, a tough spot for any team, and they'll also be at Georgia Southern on Saturday. Another "slip up" is quite likely in my estimation for a team that played a sub-250th ranked non-conference schedule. It was a bad shooting night for Georgia State (34.5%) Saturday at Troy. Their 53 points scored matched their low for the season in conference play, tying what they had vs. Arkansas Little Rock in the first meeting. Offense has admittedly been an issue for the Panthers recently, but defensively they can hang. They allow just 64.6 PPG for the year. Saturday's loss was just brutal as they held Troy to only two made field goals over the final 8:50 of the game. Unfortunately, they came on the final two possessions. One was a three-pointer that made it a one-point game (still in GSU's favor) and the next a layup that won the game w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Again, the previous game was also a one-point loss (at South Alabama) and that went to overtime. This team is due for a break. 8* Georgia State |
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02-18-16 | Jazz v. Wizards +1 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards have had major problems winning at home this season as their 11-16 SU mark here at the Verizon Center is the third worst home record in the East and sixth worst overall in the league, trailing only Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Phoenix and the Lakers. Not coincidentally, those are the teams that comprise the five worst overall records in the sport. The Wiz, while disappointing, aren't in that category so I would not be surprised to see them improve their play here at home in the second half. It starts by hosting Utah in a game that supposed to be played last month, but had to be postponed due to a winter storm. With the Jazz having played its last three games before the All-Star Break on the road and a date w/ Boston looming tomorrow night, this is not a good spot for them at all. Due to the rescheduling, Washington will actually be playing three games in three nights, something no team has had to do since Indiana three years ago. Maybe that catches up with them by the weekend, but honestly there's probably no better time to have this scheduling quirk that right after a long layoff. Consider that the Wizards are 4-1 SU this season when working on three days rest. The Jazz, meanwhile, are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing by an average of 10.5 points per game. This matchup will be an interesting clash of styles as the Wiz play at the league's fourth fastest pace while Utah plays at the slowest. If Washington can successfully push the tempo, they should be able to simply outscore the Jazz, who average only 97.8 PPG. Utah is reliant on its defense, which gives up the third fewest number of points per game in the league, trailing only San Antonio and Miami. But, on the road, the number of points allowed balloons to 99.7 PPG and that's a major reason why this team is a lousy 9-16 straight up in such games. Even worse is that they are 4-14 SU as road underdog and not getting much help, if any, from the oddsmakers here dooms them. This team had been hot before the Break, but that was mainly due to a stretch of home games against inferior opponents. The last time we saw the Jazz, they lost outright in New Orleans, ending a seven-game win streak. The Wizards win here. 10* Washington |
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02-18-16 | NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary -2 | Top | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
8* William & Mary (7:00 ET): W&M is one of just a handful of "original" Division I schools never to make a single NCAA Tournament. The Tribe are desperately trying to change that this year. They come into tonight's game tied for third in the Colonial after dropping B2B games (as favorites), placing them three games back of conference leader UNC Wilmington, who comes calling here. So this is a massive opportunity for W&M to cut into that lead, not to mention that it's a revenge spot to boot as UNCW was able to pull out a 97-94 win over the Tribe last month. That game went into overtime and saw UNCW's Denzel Ingram, who is their second leading scorer, go for a career-best 30 points. As a team, the Seahawks also made 13 of 27 three-point attempts. I do not see history repeating itself, however. Lay the short number. You may be totally unaware of this, but UNC Wilmington has won 11 in a row, the third longest active streak in the country and a school record. The Seahawks last loss occurred all the way back on January 7th, at Towson by a score of 76-60. They are +7.2 points per game in conference play, but just 7-6 ATS as more often than not they are favored. Over the L6 games though, they've gone 5-1 ATS only failing to cover when asked to lay double digits against Elon. Saturday saw them down James Madison, 78-68 (as 9.5-pt favorites), due to going 10 of 28 from three-point range and converting 18 Dukes' turnovers into 19 points. With William & Mary holding visitors to just 39.3% shooting overall and 28.6% from three-point range here at Kaplan Arena, I don't see UNCW benefiting from such luxuries again. They did shoot only 39.3% overall vs. JMU. The 99 points allowed by William & Mary on Saturday (at Towson) were the most they'd given up in a game since 1996. They were actually two-point favorites in that contest, but like Hofstra two games ago, the Tigers couldn't miss. Again though, W&M has been a stout team defensively over the course of the season, so I view these last two performances as a blip on the radar. The Tribe certainly has no issues scoring as they average 79.8 PPG on 48.5% shooting for the year here at home. With a double digit scoring differential here, I think home court makes all the difference in the world tonight as the Tribe get their revenge and move up in the CAA standings. 8* William & Mary |
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02-17-16 | Indiana State +6 v. Illinois State | Top | 50-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
8* Indiana State (8:00 ET): Despite only beating Bradley 75-60 (were -17.5) their last time out, Illinois State has still covered the spread by a cumulative 46 points its last four games due to pulling off three consecutive upsets prior to Sunday's win. Meanwhile, things have gone the opposite way at the betting window for Indiana State of late. Larry Bird's alma mater is 0-5 ATS its last five games and has lost outright four times despite being favored in every one of those games. Buying low and selling high is something I constantly preach and here we can do both. These teams have performed quite differently in games decided by six points or less this season w/ Illinois State going 6-2 straight up and Indiana State going 1-5 SU. Take the points here. It wound up not being that close at all the first time these two squads met w/ Indiana State prevailing 77-65 in Terre Haute despite facing a 34-28 halftime deficit. The key there was the Syacamores going 9 of 21 from three-point range while the Redbirds were only 5 of 24. Neither team shot particularly well overall and we should probably expect more of the same tonight as both squads are below 42% from the field for the season. But in a low-scoring game, points are obviously at a premium and that always makes the underdog look more attractive. Especially when the dog happened to win the previous meeting by double digits and doesn't really seem to be getting credit for that victory. The revenge angle can often be overrated by the linesmakers/public and such is the case here w/ a line swing that's far too severe from the first meeting. Two of Indiana State's last four losses have come in overtime, one of them in double overtime. Saturday was a tough one in Missouri State as they actually led the Bears by four early in the extra period. Again, this is a team that has actually been favored in each of its last six games. But as an underdog, the Sycamores are 7-4 ATS w/ four outright upsets. As for Illinois State, they treated me quite well two Saturdays ago w/ an upset of Wichita State as 13-point home underdogs and that carried over to another upset in the next game, as 10-pt pups over Evansville. But those results along w/ a double digit victory (shot nearly 55%) over a bad Bradley team have the Redbirds clearly overvalued for this one. 8* Indiana State |
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02-16-16 | Iowa State v. Baylor -2 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
8* Baylor (9:00 ET): The Bears are off a very bad loss on Saturday, one that saw them fall short of the oddsmakers projection by a whopping 29 points. They were favored to beat Texas Tech by 10.5 here in Waco, yet ended up losing 84-66 due to the Red Raiders exploding for 51 points in the second half and finishing with an amazing stat line of 57.8 FG%/56.3 3-pt%/83.1 FT%. Needless to say, I expect Baylor to be much better defensively in this one as they seek to avoid a fourth loss in the last five games. Despite recent form, the Bears still remain in the Top 25 and this is the first time they've dropped B2B home games all season. They've already beaten Iowa State on the road and now get a chance to do the same in the Ferrell Center where they are 43-9 SU the L3 seasons. Lay the short number. Iowa State comes in having just beaten Texas over the weekend. But they themselves had previously dropped three of four. In fact, the Cyclones haven't won B2B games since January. I had the Over in Saturday's win (cashed rather easily), but outside of Ames this team's scoring average predictably dips and that's why they are only 4-4 SU in "true" road games. 89 points weren't enough at home on January 6th against the Bears, so it's difficult to imagine them winning here. I also find it difficult to imagine that we'll be seeing anything close to the second half vs. Texas where the Cyclones shot 67 percent from the field and held the Longhorns to just one point in the final 2:30 of the game. Making more free throws than Texas even attempted helped as well. Now on the road, they likely won't get to enjoy such an advantage. Meanwhile, Baylor is an impressive 6-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points its last game, including a perfect 4-0 this season. We just saw them in this spot when they downed Kansas State (on the road), 82-72, the game after losing at West Virginia by a score of 80-69. The Bears have beaten the Cyclone three straight times and four of the last five. Here at home, they are still outscoring opponents by 14.2 points per game for the season. Having covered just one of their last eight games overall, this is a good opportunity to "buy low" on Scott Drew's team. ISU is 0 for 2 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a home loss. 8* Baylor |
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02-16-16 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -9 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
10* Texas A&M (9:00 ET): What is going on down in College Station? A&M had worked its way up as high as #5 in the rankings, but has since dropped five of six, including four in a row! All five losses came to conference foes and that leaves them behind Kentucky, LSU and South Carolina in the SEC standings. Consider though that it's often a thin line between the "jaws of victory" and the "agony of defeat" and that four of A&M's last five losses have been by five points or less. Four of them also occurred out on the road. After going 0 for 2 on the road last week, the Aggies are back at home tonight and hosting an Ole Miss team primed for a letdown after beating Arkansas by 16 in Oxford over the weekend. Lay the number. Texas A&M is 13-1 SU this year in College Station, winning by an average margin of 18.1 points per game. Needless to say, that's quite impressive. The one loss came their last time here, 81-78 to South Carolina, a game where they were favored to win by double digits. The Gamecocks shot much better than the average visitor to College Station in that game, including 57.1 percent from three-point range. Consider that for the season, A&M opponents are barely above 39% overall here. The Aggies certainly shot well themselves in Saturday's loss at LSU (55.8%), but could not overcome a -10 turnover differential and -17 point differential at the free throw line. That is how a seven point second-half lead quickly evaporates. As I often state, "buying low" on a team is the way to go and right now A&M's stock is probably at its 2016 nadir. So jumping on board now is the way to go. Ole Miss has covered six of its last seven, including three straight, so they are at the opposite end of the recent spectrum compared to A&M. The Rebels benefited from Arkansas shooting only 31.6% from the field Saturday, the lowest percentage by an opponent in SEC play. In four games as a road underdog in conference play, the Rebels have lost every time, including by 22 at Kentucky. A&M has probably one of the stronger home court edges in the entire league. Senior point guard Anthony Collins and fellow backcourt mate Jalen Jones were both limited due to sickness/injury in the LSU game, so a return to health should bring about a drastically different result. 10* Texas A&M |
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02-16-16 | Creighton v. Butler -5 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
10* Butler (7:00 ET): This is an excellent spot to once again 'buy low' on a team, in this case Butler, who is off a loss here at home (Xavier) and has legit revenge for an eight-point loss suffered at the hands of Creighton last month. Yes, the revenge angle can be overrated. But, in this case, I don't see the Bulldogs getting beat twice by an inferior opponent nor do I see them dropping B2B home games. Butler has been a bit of a disappointment in Big East play, going just 6-7 SU after an 11-1 start to the season. Their NCAA Tournament hopes are in dire need of a big win and considering how good they've been at home so far, here is where they'll get one. Creighton is at a disadvantage of playing its second road game in four days. Lay the points. At home, Butler is 10-3 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 17.5 points per game. Remember that includes losing to Xavier on Saturday. In that game, the Bulldogs shot just 33.3 percent from the field compared to 56.9 percent for their opponents. That's highly irregular as we've been used to seeing Butler shoot the ball quite well here at Hinkle Fieldhouse (49.9%) while holding the opposition to 40.3%. They ended up being held 25 points below their overall scoring average for the season. It was their second lowest scoring game of the season w/ only a 60-55 loss to Villanova surpassing it. But if you don't think a team can bounce back, look no further than Xavier, who came in and shot so well after being held to 30 percent (including 1 of 21 from 3-pt range!) its previous game. Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones were held to a combined 14 points vs. Xavier, just the 11th time in 95 career games played together that they were both held to single digits. That awful shooting display by Xavier came against Creighton, who then followed that up w/ a road win over Marquette on Saturday. The Blue Jays have won and covered three straight heading into tonight, something they had previously not accomplished all season. The key to the win streak has been on defense as Creighton has held all three opponents below their YTD average. But, as detailed above, Butler is poised to "break out" offensively in this one. Just six days ago, the Bulldogs won on the road against a good Seton Hall team. They led Creighton on the road (by five) at the half in the first matchup, but made only one three-pointer in the second half while the Blue Jays wound up going to the FT line 29 times. Look for those discrepancies to rectified this time around. 10* Butler |
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02-15-16 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro +1 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 101 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): This is a situation where we simply must take advantage of a team shooting the ball so well its last three games, that regression is almost inevitable. Wofford has connected on 61.5%, 55.8% and 58.2% of its field goals the L3 games, respectively. Not surprisingly, all were wins and overall the Terriers have taken six of their last seven games. But the road has been a challenge for this team, particularly on the defensive end, as they are just 4-11 SU away from home this season. Situationally, this spot is tough as this will be their third games in five nights. Meanwhile, UNC Greensboro got the weekend off & that's a significant edge heading into this Southern Conference rematch. UNC Greensboro has had a tough season and their struggles have continued recently w/ three consecutive losses, the most recent coming at last place VMI as 5.5-point favorites. Earlier in the year, they also lost at Wofford, 87-76 as seven-point dogs. Both teams shot the ball (over 50%) well overall in that matchup, but the difference was where Wofford did most of its damage. The Terrier were 11 of 23 from three-point range (UNC Greensboro was 5 of 17), not to mention 24 of 26 from the free throw line (UNCG was only 7 of 16!). I highly doubt those marks will be repeated again here. As you might have guessed, UNCG is a more impressive team at home (only 1 road win) as they shoot 38% from behind the arc. The Spartans fell into a big early hole Thursday at VMI (trailed 44-27 at the half) as hot shooting by the opponent burned them. That should not happen again here at home. Not only does Wofford have the added burden of playing for a third time in five days, but they also have a big showdown (at home) vs. second place Furman looming this weekend. Having already beaten the Spartans this year, this shapes up as somewhat of lookahead spot for them. There is just no way they are going to be able to continue their recent ridiculously hot shooting and defensively there are issues here. On the road, opponents are shooting 50% against them this season, including 37.9% from three-point range. I look for UNCG to have a big breakthrough performance here. 10* UNC Greensboro |
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02-14-16 | USC v. Arizona -8.5 | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona had the longest home win streak in the entire country snapped when they lost 83-75 to Oregon on January 27th. Since then, they've won four in a row overall, two of those at home. Friday saw the Wildcats manage to outlast UCLA, 81-75, a game they were favored to win by 12. Though they obviously didn't cover there, success did come at the betting window each of the previous three games. Getting to play at the McKale Center for a second time this weekend is pretty big for a team that is outscoring its opponents by a full 20 points per game here for the season. Meanwhile, USC will be dropping out of the new rankings tomorrow due to losing at Arizona State Friday. It will be another loss here and a big one at that. As they showed Friday, the Trojans are not a particularly great road team. They give up an average of 78.9 points per game and despite being under that average at ASU, they still found a way to lose there. It was the offense that failed them, scoring 18 points fewer than their season average, though also giving up 47 points in the second half didn't help matters. Neither did 17 turnovers or getting beat up on the offensive glass. Arizona may have found itself down by 10 at the half to UCLA, but the bottom line is that they've beaten USC here in Tucson six straight times, the last three coming by a 70 point margin. The Wildcats have been able to win their last two games (at Washington, vs. UCLA) despite not really being at their best (40 percent shooting), which I think is key as I don't feel they'll be turning the ball over at the same rate (20 times) they did vs. Washington nor be as poor defensively as they were in the first half vs. UCLA. This is of course a big revenge game from Arizona's perspective as they lost a four overtime decision to the Trojans in LA earlier in the season. That was a somewhat controversial finish w/ a foul called on the Wildcats leading to the final two point margin (103-101!). At the time, it was UA's third straight road game, so hardly a great spot. USC, like Arizona here, was playing its second home game of the weekend. The Wildcats were favored (by three) in that first meeting, so no surprise w/ the line being where it's at here. Arizona is also 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. 10* Arizona |
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02-14-16 | Canisius +2 v. St. Peter's | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
8* Canisius (3:00 ET): As I often say, the revenge angle can be quite overrated at times, but here it applies as Canisius looks to atone for an ugly 17-point loss, at home, suffered last month at the hands of MAAC rival St. Peter's. The Golden Griffins were actually eight-point chalk for that first meeting, so there's been a noticeable swing in the spread for today's game, but that swing in my estimation is too severe. Something that caught my eye here is the line is actually now dropping in spite of the fact that St. Peter's has taken the majority of the bets. That's a sign that the so-called "smart money" is likely on the underdog in this one. Take the points. When these teams played last month, Canisius shot the ball terribly, as in 29.7% overall from the field, including 7 of 28 from behind the arc. St. Peter's meanwhile was actually at 51% overall and 7 of 17 from behind the arc. I wouldn't look for such disparate shooting numbers today, in fact, I'm actually more concerned about St. Peter's defensive numbers (63.9 PPG allowed at home) than anything else. The Peacocks have been able to win and cover B2B games due to holding their opponents below 60 points. But, it's telling that they are not favored by more in this spot. Part of the reason is because they've been outscored this season and offensively they're just not very good. They barely shoot above 40% for the year. Canisius got blown out in their last game, 90-67 at Siena, but that too only serves to increase the value we are getting here. They shot just 37.3% from the field on Thursday. Meanwhile, it's a minor edge w/ an extra day of prep as St. Peter's had to play Friday, making this the second game in three days for them. It's all of matter of whose pace this game is played at as Canisius may be inferior defensively, but they also average 77.6 points per game themselves. That previous matchup vs. St. Peter's happens to be the Golden Griffin's worst offensive showing of the entire year. It is the only game all season where they failed to score at least 60 points. It's a surprise that that they're only 1-7 ATS as underdogs this season, but also they'd been favored more often than not until recently. 8* Canisius |
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02-14-16 | Syracuse v. Boston College +11.5 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
8* Boston College (1:00 ET): One of the "tell tale" signs of value is when you can get the same number taking a team at home as you did on the road. It's rare and certainly there will be some mitigating circumstances, but surely its something that when it happens, you must take advantage of. Such is the case this afternoon w/ an admittedly bad Boston College team. The Eagles are now 0-11 SU in ACC play following a narrow (as in 68-65) defeat at the hands of North Carolina, who was -20.5 for the game, Tuesday night. An earlier conference loss saw BC fall at Syracuse, 62-40, but now we're able to grab the same amount of points here as were available in the Carrier Dome last month. Yes, the first meeting ended up being lopsided, but the value is definitely there on the home dog today. Take the points. Boston College might be 1-10 SU on the road or in neutral site games, but they're also a far more respectable 6-7 SU at home. The discrepancy became more apparent with the result from their last game (vs. UNC), which was a far cry from the final margin of 27 points when they had to travel to Chapel Hill just ten days prior. We could be seeing a similar swing here today. The Eagles could manage only 15 points in the first half when they traveled to Syracuse, but I reckon that kind of performance won't be repeated here, nor will their 31.9% overall shooting from that first meeting. Syracuse, meanwhile, is just 5-5 SU outside of the Carrier Dome this season and one of those wins came by only two points (at Duke). Until today, the Orange had yet to be an ACC road favorite at any time all season. Syracuse has actually played its last four games all at home, so this could be a bit of a tricky spot. They did beat Florida State by a final score of 85-72 on Thursday, but are just 3-9 ATS the last three seasons after scoring 80 or more points the previous game. Also, keep in mind that B.C. has had two extra days to prepare here. That's fairly significant as is the spread. Again, it was obviously too low the first go around but here there's been an overadjustment as I see B.C. still being hungry for that first ACC win of the season. 8* Boston College |
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02-13-16 | Pepperdine v. Pacific +3.5 | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10* Pacific (10:00 ET): For a second time this year, Pepperdine just pulled a major upset at St. Mary's expense. Now, we get to go against them. The Waves were 13-point road underdogs in Thursday's 69-63 win over the Gaels, which did snap a three-game losing streak for them. However, they are still 7-1 against the spread their last eight games. But I correctly faded them that one time they failed at the betting window, that being an outright loss at home (as 12-point chalk) to Portland two Thursdays ago. Being the favorite hasn't really treated Pepperdine all too well as they're just 3-4 ATS in that role vs. the rest of the WCC w/ two outright losses. Two of the wins came at lowly San Diego's expense. Take the points here. Pacific, meanwhile, is off an outright loss here at home Thursday night to Loyola Marymount. The final score there read 77-72 in a game the Tigers were expected to WIN by five. But like Pepperdine, Pacific prefers to be in the underdog role as taking points had been the driving force behind a 7-1 ATS surge prior to losing to LMU. Keep in mind that they were actually a 17-point dog in an upset win over BYU last Saturday. That was the sixth straight time they'd covered when catching points, dating back to staying within five points of Pepperdine (as 9.5-pt dogs) on January 7th in what was a back and forth game. An inability to close killed Pacific Thursday as they led by eight late, but could only manage one point over the final four minutes. I expect them to bounce back in a second straight home game. Meanwhile, it's the dreaded second road game in three night scenario for Pepperdine that's all too common in West Coast Conference play. This will be the third such situation for the Waves this year and they have yet to sweep any two-game set. Last time in it, they fell by 11 at BYU. Given that they don't have a winning record on the road, I'm unconvinced that Pepperdine should be the favorite here, especially considering Pacific's 10-4 ATS mark as an underdog. It was a colossal 38-15 edge in free throw attempts in that first meeting, plus Lamond Murray, Jr finished w/ a career high 31 points. Neither is likely to be duplicated here. 10* Pacific |
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02-13-16 | Tulsa v. Connecticut -8 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (8:00 ET): The faithful in Storrs are still trying to figure out exactly what went wrong for their beloved Huskies Thursday night as what seemed like a sure victory (led Temple by 12 w/ just seven minutes to go) quickly turned into a 63-58 loss thanks to an improbable 23-6 run to end the game by the other side. That result did UConn's tourney hopes no favors as this team is now squarely on the bubble. So, they certainly can't afford another loss any time soon. Fortunately, a) they should be motivated by revenge here and b) they are catching Tulsa off a surprising result, that being a win over SMU as nine-point dogs. I can't see lightning striking twice in more ways than one, so I say lay the points. UConn had its poorest offensive effort of the year when they traveled to Tulsa on January 14th. The line there was in the pick 'em range, but the Huskies shot only 30.9% from the field en route to only 51 points. Since that time, they have won six of eight, including what happened on Thursday. Only one time all year has this team dropped B2B games and that came in early in the year w/ two straight three-point decisions vs. Gonzaga and Syracuse. In fact, five of the team's seven losses this year have been by five points or less. Meanwhile, their average margin of victory here at home is a whopping 18.6 points per game. The debacle against Temple saw them turn the ball over three times in the final 25 seconds, a dubious feat that I surmise won't be soon repeated. As for Tulsa, Wednesday's win saw them beat the linesmakers' projection by a wider margin than any game previous to it. That creates an excellent opportunity to 'go against' here. The Golden Hurricane have amassed a strong record in spite of a rather pedestrian scoring differential. They couldn't miss against SMU Wednesday, going 31 of 53 from the field (58.5%), but note that they actually trailed by as many as eight in the second half. It's impressive that they were able to win where no road team had won before this season, but now comes the inevitable letdown. This is the first time in conference play that Tulsa has had to play B2B road games. 8* Connecticut |
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02-13-16 | Wyoming v. Boise State -9.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
10* Boise State (4:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the country will be in a more ornery mood come Saturday than Boise State. That's because of what happened to the Broncos on Wednesday at Colorado State. There, they were failed by both the referees and technology in a bizarre 97-93 double overtime loss that saw their game winner (at the end of the 1st OT) nullified due to the officials inability to properly rectify the fact that the clock was not started properly on the play. The Mountain West has since come out and admitted Boise State should have won the game and HC Leon Rice is demanding his team be given the win. It was a critical loss for the Broncos as they are now in fourth, rather than second, in the conference standings. In comes Wyoming Saturday and they are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. Lay the points. The Broncs opened MW play 6-1 SU w/ their only loss to first place San Diego State. But they've since dropped four of five and are 0-5 ATS. Oddsmakers continue to price them in a range that connotates respect as just one time in league play have they been an underdog (at UNLV). While they haven't been successful at the betting window (3-7 ATS) here at home, they are 11-2 SU with an average margin of victory of 15.1 points per game (averaging 81.6 PPG). This is not the first time they've taken on Wyoming this year. Last month, they went to Laramie (where it's not easy to win) and prevailed 81-71 as seven-point chalk. Going by that line, Boise State seems like a great value here now only having to lay a few more points at home. This is an excellent opportunity to get in and "buy low" with the Broncos. Wyoming is a terrible road team. They are just 3-9 straight up outside of the high elevation of Laramie and have dropped five of six in MW play, the one win coming by just two at New Mexico. The result they are off has the Cowboys overvalued heading into today as they just beat Utah State 84-65 last Saturday. The Pokes have had a full week to prepare here, but given the high level of motivation we're bound to see from the home side, that won't matter. Wyoming shot 50% their last game, but still is at just 41.1% overall in league play. 10* Boise State |
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02-13-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit +1 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
10* Detroit (3:00 ET): Sell on good news, buy on bad news. That's a mindset that I love to employ in College Basketball and we are able to put it to good use Saturday afternoon here in the Horizon League. Milwaukee just pulled an upset Thursday night, 93-85 as 6.5-point dogs in Oakland, while Detroit is off a one-point loss (were favored by 2) here at home vs. Green Bay. Milwaukee will be playing its fourth straight road games this afternoon, a tough spot no doubt, and I can't see their hosts dropping B2B games at home. Furthermore, it feels like the linesmakers have overadjusted considering the first meeting between these two was a three-point game (in Milwaukee's favor) and a 6.5-point spread. Detroit should be favored here as I like them to exact some revenge. Take the points. Detroit has had some poor luck in conference play. At one point, they had lost four straight games by four points or less or in overtime. The Titans losing streak then reached five w/ a 91-83 setback at the hands of Northern Kentucky. But they quickly bounced back w/ three consecutive victories. Unfortunately, then came Thursday's 86-85 loss to Green Bay. Poor free throw shooting on a low volume hurt them there. While it was just their fourth home loss of the season, it was also their fourth in the last five home games. In other words, I expect them to turn things around shortly. Milwaukee is 8-2 ATS in road games this year, an unsustainable trend from where I sit, so this is almost a perfect storm of sorts. In the first matchup, Detroit actually held a six-point halftime advantage. But they allowed 52 points after that, even though the Panthers finished only 5 of 24 from three-point range. Neither of these teams are strong defensively, but of late Milwaukee has been particularly bad by giving up 84.0 PPG its last five. That's a major reason why they've lost outright three times during that span. Teams are shooting 38.8% from three-point range against them for the year. The Panthers are also just 1-2 ATS as road favorites in conference play, including an outright loss at Northern Kentucky last Saturday. A fourth straight road game catches up with them here. 10* Detroit |
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02-12-16 | Ohio v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 94-75 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (7:00 ET): The reason for the suspension of Buffalo's leading scorer Lamonte Bearden has been revealed (marijuana) and he will continue to be out for the next few games. His absence did seem to cost the team Tuesday as they lost here at home to Toledo by just two points. That setback snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak by the Bulls, who now trail first place Akron (best team in the MAC) by 1.5 games in the East Division. The natural inclination is going to be to continue to fade UB w/o Bearden, but note that they were actually playing just fine w/o him vs. the Rockets as they led most of the way (by nine at half) and it was only when foul trouble struck that things went bad. I'm calling for them to bounce back as this is a good value in the wake of the Bearden news. Lay the short number. Here at home, Buffalo is averaging a strong 81.3 points per game. They managed only 69 in Tuesday's loss to Toledo, which most will want to attribute to Bearden being out, but they actually shot the ball just fine (much better than Toledo, in fact). The issue was defense, or rather of lack of it in the second half where they gave up 43 points. Much of that damage came at the free throw line as the Rockets went 19 of 23, thus nullifying the fact that UB held them to just 37% shooting from the field, including 6 of 26 from three-point range. Incredibly, the Bulls attempted only nine free throws themselves in the game w/ the starting five accounting for only three of those! I've yet to even mention tonight's opponent (probably should!). That would be Ohio, who is coming off a minor upset (were +1.5) at Ball State its last time out. The Bobcats are now just a game back of UB in the MAC East standings after winning four of five (only loss was to Akron), but the road had previously been unkind to them. OU lost its first three MAC road games, the most egregious result obviously being a 72-49 loss at Central Michigan. Lack of defense has been an issue for the Bobcats, who give up 78.8 points per game outside of Athens. Look for the three-point shot to be the difference here as Ohio is allowing teams to shoot nearly 40% from behind the arc when on the road this season while Buffalo holds its opponents to just 28% here at home. Defense helps the Bulls overcome the loss of Bearden. 8* Buffalo |
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02-11-16 | Iowa v. Indiana -1 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
8* Indiana (9:00 ET): These teams are tied a top the Big 10 in terms of scoring differential on a per possession basis, but that's of little consolation to IU who lost (as nine-point favorites) at Penn State Saturday night. That 68-63 setback allowed Iowa to take the lead in the conference, but the one game gap that exists between these two can be immediately closed if the Hoosiers are able to bounce back w/ a win tonight. Given that the game takes place in Bloomington, where the Hoosiers are a perfect 13-0 straight up this season, I like their chances. Iowa's stock is quite high right now (ranked #4 in the country!) as they have lost only one time (at Maryland) since December 10th. But that stock is probably due to take a hit and I can't believe that the Hoosiers aren't getting more credit for being the home team here. Lay the small number. Indiana would likely have a better record were it not for one key issue, that being turnovers, which have plagued them throughout the Big 10 campaign. They had been somewhat improving in that department recently, but against Penn State had 15 and that cost them. It also hurts that the Hoosiers haven't really been forcing turnovers either (just 21 L3 games) of late. But I view that as simply a temporary nosedive and nothing else. Consider that in the three games previous, IU had forced 43 TO's. What really burned them against Penn State was shooting only 36.2 percent from the field, including only eight made 2-pt field goals! Keep in mind that this is a team which averages 84.1 points per game on 51.1 percent shooting overall, including 42.2 from three-point range. Those offensive numbers are downright historic as you'd have to go back to the 2001-02 Kansas team to find the last time a squad averaged more than 85 PPG while being above the 50%/40% thresholds. Here at home, the Hoosiers are averaging a whopping 91.1 PPG! Iowa has won its last three games all by double digit margins (3-0 ATS), so again, they're stock is currently quite high. But I find it telling that they were 5.5-pt dogs at Maryland (and didn't cover, mind you), yet come in as closer to a Pick 'em here. All four Hawkeye losses this season have come away from home and three of those have been in the underdog role. IU, meanwhile, is 17-7 ATS the L24 times it has been a home favorite of three points or less. Look for them to cure the turnover "ills" and bounce back offensively, leading to a big win. 8* Indiana |
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02-11-16 | Oregon v. California +2 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
10* California (9:00 ET): Right now, Oregon is the hottest team in the Pac 12 as they have won and covered six straight, leaving them 1.5 games up on the rest of the field. But, despite winning at Arizona (as seven-point underdogs), I'm not entirely convinced that the Ducks are the best team in the conference. Quite frankly, I'm a bit surprised that they come in as the favorite here in Berkeley considering they barely escaped w/ only a three-point win against Cal up in Eugene last month. I was on the Bears in that one and while I pushed at +3, many could have won as the number was bet up closer to tip off. Cal is a bubble team, desperate for a win over a marquee opponent, and once again we can take advantage of the fact that one team has a little number next to its name (i.e ranked in the Top 25) while the other does not. Take the points here. Cal's results in conference play have followed a predictable pattern: they win at home and lose on the road. In fact, they have not lost at Haas Pavilion all year (14-0 SU, +15.8 PPG) including a perfect 5-0 vs. the rest of the Pac 12 following Saturday's big 76-61 win over rival Stanford. There, the Bears jumped out to a 16-point halftime lead and never looked back, going up by as many as 26 at one point. As I've written about before, this is a talented team up front w/ plenty of size. I had them here at home against Arizona and they also downed Utah when the Utes came in ranked. Freshmen Ivan Rabb (five straight games w/ 10+ points) and Jaylen Brown (8 straight!) are both contributing in a manner that you like to see. Oregon was able to beat Arizona on the road despite allowing 61% shooting in that game, which is hard to reconcile. The Ducks' defense allowed Utah to shoot 50% from the floor Sunday, so there are defensive issues here. Keep in mind that this team has lost at both Oregon State and Colorado earlier this year. Looking back at the first meeting between these two squads it's easy to identify why Cal lost and that's the fact they were 0 for 12 from three-point range. That performance will not be repeated tonight. As expected, the Bears outscored the Ducks by a wide margin in the paint and that should be repeated here. Cal is the top defensive team in the Pac 12, giving up just 66.7 PPG on 38.8 percent shooting. Those numbers are even better here at home. 10* California |
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02-11-16 | North Dakota v. Eastern Washington -6.5 | Top | 85-95 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET): Something that you may be unaware of is that Eastern Washington has one of the strongest home court edges in the entire country. The Eagles are a perfect 8-0 straight up playing in Cheney this season, which may not sound like anything special, but consider that their average margin of victory here is a whopping 25.9 points per game thanks to a 96.0 PPG scoring average on 55.7% overall shooting! Therefore, laying a relatively short number doesn't seem like too big of a risk, particularly considering their opponent is due to "nosedive" following an upset in their most recent game. Also, this is a revenge spot for EWU to boot as they fell 79-71 (as two-point chalk) at North Dakota back on January 2nd. The upset I spoke of for North Dakota came Saturday at home vs. Weber State as the Fighting Hawks prevailed 78-71 as 4.5-pt pups. Nothing in particular really "stood out" in the upset, save for the obvious edge in free throw shooting that most home teams get to enjoy. North Dakota not only made more free throws than Weber State attempted, but their percentage (87.5%) at the charity stripe was key as well. Interestingly enough, this is a team whose season-long average there is only 67.6% and they have really benefited from their opponents shooting a terrible 59.9 percent from the line. On the road, I wouldn't look for North Dakota to enjoy the same free throw edge that they had at home vs. Weber State. Eastern Washington has now won four straight and they and North Dakota are tied for third in the Big Sky at 7-4 SU in conference play. So this game clearly carries a lot of importance. As alluded to above, there is some clear value w/ this line as the Eagles were two-point favorites when they visited Grand Forks and lost 79-71. But the change in venue here is very significant as is the fact EWU shot only 38.2% on two-point attempts in that first meeting. Like I said earlier, the offensive numbers for them here at home are downright otherworldly, so the revenge angle (which is often overrated) definitely applies here. We're talking about roughly a 25 PPG swing in what EWU averages at home compared to on the road. 10* Eastern Washington |
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02-10-16 | Nuggets v. Pistons -5.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): This will be the third consecutive Pistons game where I am making a play and I'm trying to make it a perfect 3 for 3. I faded them Saturday night in Indiana and they lost 112-104 as four-point underdogs. Then on Monday, I was all over the Under in their game (here at home) vs. Toronto and sure enough that ended up being an easy double digit winner. As I've mentioned previously, this team is only 5-8 straight up since its upset of Golden State back on January 16th. But as that upset proved, this is a team to be feared at home. They remain in the Motor City tonight for a game w/ a Denver team that has been punching winning tickets left and right lately, but that's a streak I don't believe will continue. Lay the points. I think the Nuggets reached their proverbial "tipping point" Monday night when they were a road favorite (in Brooklyn) for just the second time all season. They lost (by just a single point), which shouldn't come as too big of a shock due to the fact this is a team w/ just 10 road wins to its credit all season and the majority of those wins came at the expense of bad teams. Having covered 11 of their last 13 games overall, I suspect we will see Denver start to "give some back" at the betting window not just here, but after the All-Star Break as well. Looking at just the last five games, the Nuggets are not only scoring above their season average offensively, but also giving up far fewer points per game on defense. This is a case of a bad team playing above its head for a short-term period of time. They will begin to regress back to their normal level of play. Meanwhile, Detroit has played below expectations over its last five games. This is a team that has outscored opponents over the course of the year, but in those last five they are -3.6 PPG, not indicative of YTD performance. Here at home, the numbers are even more impressive as the Pistons are 16-9 SU/16-8-1 ATS w/ an average margin of victory of +5.7 PPG. Defensively, they should start to improve from the L2 games where they allowed Indiana and Toronto to shoot 53.9% and 55.7% respectively. Improving their own 89 point performance from Monday is all but guaranteed (Nuggets allow 103.6 PPG) and this is a revenge spot from a loss suffered just 2.5 weeks ago when the Pistons were actually 4.5-point chalk (lost by 3) and led at one point by as many as 14 points. 10* Detroit |
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02-10-16 | St. Joe's v. George Washington -2.5 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
10* George Washington (7:00 ET): There is just one team in the country w/o a road loss and surprisingly it is St. Joe's, who is 8-0 straight up and against the spread in games that take place in their opponents' gyms. Quietly, the Hawks are 19-4 SU overall and their margin of victory away from home is +8.8 points per game, so I suppose there is no "flukiness" about this at all. But still, I'm not all that sold on this team as the A-10 schedule has been relatively light, save for a three-point loss at home to VCU. Speaking of VCU, George Washington just beat them, a major win that should be celebrated. The Colonials were nine-point road dogs in that one and now return home where they've gone 12-1 SU this year. Lay the short number here. GW's one home loss came in double overtime, to Richmond, on January 28th. Since then, the Colonials have rattled off three straight wins, clearly the most impressive of which took place on Saturday. One of the best free throw shooting teams in the entire country, they were just 10 of 18 from the charity stripe Saturday. That makes beating VCU look all the more impressive. Consider that the Rams hadn't lost since December 15th. Playing against teams with a winning record, GW is 12-3 SU and 9-5 ATS. Normally, I might call for a letdown after a win like the one GW had over the weekend, but the fact is their avg MOV is +12.2 PPG and it's not like they played "above their heads" vs. VCU. The spread is also too low here. St. Joe's is obviously due to not only lose a game on the road, but also fail to cover. They won Saturday, but were coming off surprising loss there and the opponent was Fordham, who has been the worst team in the A-10 for years. To this point, the road schedule has not been all that challenging for the Hawks, who have mostly drawn the bottom of the league for their away dates. That changes in a major way here. Consider that they were getting more points against an inferior (compared to GW) Rhode Island squad at the end of January. That win was followed up by a home loss to St. Bonaventure last week. Then they shot better than they had in any game all season vs. lowly Fordham (only game better than 50%!). They are the ones that will be unable to match their performance level from the previous game. 10* George Washington |
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02-09-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida -9 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
10* Florida (9:00 ET): The Gators recorded a big win for me (was on them) and themselves two Saturdays ago when they whipped a very good West Virginia team here in Gainesville, 88-71. Since then, things haven't gone nearly as well, especially in a blowout loss at Kentucky Saturday. In between, their was a narrow win over Arkansas here at home by four points where they did not cover. However, as I went through in my analysis for the WVU-Florida game, the Gators are absolutely better than their record as they rate highly according to most computer rankings. Note that before the disaster Saturday in Lexington, three of the team's last four losses had been by three points or less. Lay the points here as I'll call for a big win. Ole Miss comes in here off an outright win, at home, over Vanderbilt Saturday. They won 85-78 as three-point dogs, but that was after trailing by as many as 11 points in the second half. Part of the impetus for the Rebels' comeback was Vandy getting into major foul trouble. Ole Miss ended up making as many free throws as Vandy even attempted. That helped nullify a somewhat dreadful 35.8 FG%. That's really been nothing new, however, as the Rebels are barely shooting even 40 percent in SEC play, so it has to be somewhat of a surprise that they are even .500 in conference action. Last month in Oxford, they were better than that average, but still lost to this Florida team (80-71) and trailed by 19 going into the Break. The revenge angle is often overrated in handicapping circles and I believe that to be the case here. Despite Florida winning by nine in Oxford, there's been no real adjustment by the linesmakers for this rematch even though the Gators are 11-1 SU in Gainesville, winning by an average margin of 17.7 points per game. Florida has responded from its previous three SEC losses by winning and covering the next time out, every time. The last time we saw them in this spot was the West Virginia game. It was a huge early hole that the Gators fell into in Lexington Saturday, but they basically played UK pretty even in the second half. The Top 25 has essentially accounted for almost all of Florida's losses this year, but that's not Ole Miss. 10* Florida |
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02-09-16 | Wizards v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
8* New York (8:05 ET): The Knicks just fired Derek Fisher due to losing 9 of their last 10 games, including five straight. They are now 4.5 games out of the playoff chase and it's definitely been an ugly stretch as they've been outscored by 9.2 points per game during the losing streak. However, that's a bit misleading as there was one bad loss (here at home) to Golden State, 116-95. The last three losses have all been by six points or less. As we all know, after something like coaching change, teams often improve over the short-term. That's what I expect here from the Knicks and they have a tailor-made opponent in the Wizards, who are awful defensively. Lay the short number. Note that the Knicks are currently eight games below .500. That includes an 0-7 record w/o Carmelo Anthony, which is no coincidence. He has been on the floor for four of the team's last five losses, missing only the Memphis game. But he was back vs. Denver on Sunday and after a slow start, finished w/ 21 points, six rebounds and seven assists. Overall, the team's shooting was better against the Nuggets than it had been the previous four games. Anthony has been out for three of the team's last nine losses. He is scheduled to play here. With Kurt Rambis taking the reigns tonight, there should be sense of urgency, especially playing at home. Consider that in two of the past three games, the Knicks fell behind big early, came back to take the lead but then lost. While the Knicks have been disappointing lately, the Wizards have been disappointing all season. I've written about all season how their increased pace of play has brought little to no success. Their fourth in pace of play, but only 16th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they are awful, giving up 105.4 points per game and lately have been worse (114.4 PPG allowed L5 games). Saturday they gave up 108 in a loss to Charlotte where they actually held a 19-point lead early. Though it was a long-time ago, the Knicks did win 117-110 in D.C. back on Halloween. Washington has won and covered four straight at MSG, a streak that I cannot see continuing. The Wiz are 0-3 SU/ATS as a road dog of 3 pts or less this season. 8* New York |
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02-09-16 | Wichita State v. Drake +19 | Top | 74-48 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
8* Drake (8:00 ET): By some metrics, Drake is the unluckiest team in the entire country. They are, in fact, 0-7 SU in games decided by six points or less this season. One of those losses came at Iowa. Things were not close when the Bulldogs first played Wichita State as the final score there was 67-47. But the good news for the rematch is that we're getting a ton of value. The spread here is nearly identical to what it was the first go around despite the change in venue and the fact Drake nearly covered in Wichita. I played against the Shockers Saturday night remember and they lost outright (as 12.5-point favorites) to Illinois State. As I said in my analysis there, this team is due to start regressing after a ridiculously dominant start to MVC play. Take the points. Wichita State came into Saturday night's game 11-0 SU (10-1 ATS) in Missouri Valley play (conference is down this year), winning by an average margin of 20.4 points per game. That average margin of victory certainly took a bit of hit w/ the loss to Illinois State, which again was an outright loss as 12.5-point chalk. Yes, they did have a 16-point lead in the second half before imploding down the stretch, but the expectation of a bounce back in this spot has led to an overinflated line. Consider that the Shockers held ISU to 27.3 percent shooting and still lost. It was only their third MVC loss in the L3 seasons and they are 0-2 ATS off the previous two losses. They are also 2-6 ATS the L3 seasons after scoring 60 points or less. Drake was victimized by a hot shooting Northern Iowa team last time out as the Panthers finished 61.8 percent from the field. As good as Wichita State has been this year, I doubt that they'll be that sharp offensively here. In fact, the Shockers were just 35.2 percent from the field against Illinois State. One key area for Drake in this game is three-point shooting. They actually lead the conference in that department at 40.3 percent, which is very good. They made only 10 two-point shots in the first meetings w/ Wichita State, a number that almost HAS to go up here. The Shockers can also be had on the glass and that's good for the Bulldogs, who have outrebounded five straight opponents. 8* Drake |
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02-08-16 | Lakers v. Pacers -11 | Top | 87-89 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): All of a sudden, the Lakers are playing decent basketball as they're actually 3-0 ATS in February. After winning their first two games this month straight up, they easily covered Saturday night in San Antonio (as 17-pt dogs), losing only by four. But I wouldn't expect this recent "surge" to go on for much longer. This is still the worst team in the league from where I sit as they are being outscored by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions. Defensively, they are the worst team in the league in terms of efficiency. Offensively, they are dead last in both true shooting and effective field goal percentages. So there's just not much to like here, particularly the hideous coaching job Byron Scott has done this season. I am expecting the Lakers to revert back to their typical ways tonight and lose big in Indiana. Lay the points. I took the Pacers in their last game and they rewarded me w/ a 112-104 win and cover over the Pistons. January did not go all that well for Frank Vogel's team, but lately things have improved w/ four wins in the last six games and one of the losses was to Cleveland in overtime. Offensively, Indiana's recent numbers have been quite strong and while normally you might want to bet on them regressing, such a phenomenon is unlikely to occur here given how bad the Lakers are defensively. I think that the key here will be the Pacers defense, which is usually pretty sound, particularly at home. They're allowing just 98.2 PPG here but have recently been above that number. Keep in mind though that two of their last five games did go to overtime. Something else that caught my eye is that when these teams first met this season, back in November at LA, the Pacers were 10-point favorites. They didn't cover, but now we're essentially getting to lay the same number at home. That's value. Kobe Bryant's retirement tour makes for some nice storylines during the course of the season, but the fact remains that he's stunting the growth of the younger talent on the roster through the empowerment of Scott. The Lakers haven't been quite as bad defensively of late due to holding New Orleans to only 96 pts in an upset win Thursday night, but have still given up at least 100 in 11 of the last 13 games. As for the offense, only one time in the past 16 games have they been at 50% or above! Bryant may not even play here (shoulder), but if he does, I'd expect him to curtail from recent efforts as he remains the league's worst shooter at 35.4 percent. The Pacers should also dominate the boards in this game. 10* Indiana |
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02-07-16 | Manhattan v. Fairfield -4 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Fairfield (3:30 ET): This is a revenge spot for the Stags, who lost at Manhattan (by six) last month. As you'll often hear both here and likely elsewhere, the revenge angle is often overrated in handicapping circles, but today I feel it is applicable as the avenging team is undervalued coming off bad loss to MAAC leader Monmouth. Manhattan managed to upset Monmouth (were at home) back on January 21st, but then lost 70-56 at Iona last Friday. Tuesday saw them pull another upset, this one a minor one as they were one-point home dogs in a 65-57 win over Rider. Yes, the Jaspers seem to have the edge from a scheduling perspective (three extra days to prepare), but I think Fairfield will be eager to atone for Friday's "dud" of a performance. Lay the points. Being the home team is huge here for Fairfield. I say that not just because of the fact they average a strong 79.5 points per game here. But, also, Manhattan is an awful 2-7 SU in "true" road games this season and being outscored by nearly 14 PPG. Note that the Stags were actually one-point road favorites in last month's meeting, so by that measure they are clearly undervalued in this spot. Yes, there has to be some kind of adjustment by the linesmakers due to the result there, but not to this degree. Again, Manhattan has covered only one of its eight lined road games. As alluded to above, the Jaspers are not a strong team defensively. On the road, their opponents are shooting 50 percent this season. Fairfield has not shot well its last two games, both losses. The first was an outright loss here at home to Quinnipiac (known for their polling!). Then, against Monmouth, things got away from them in the second half (25-5 run by Monmouth). While the Stags aren't "fooling anyone" as to who they are, the fact is that this is the first time that they enter a game on a losing streak since opening the season 0-3 and that included a game vs. North Carolina. Manhattan has won a number of close games recently, six by eight points or less since the New Year in fact. Tuesday's win over Rider was a one-point game w/ three minutes to go & then the Broncs simply stopped scoring (literally!). Go w/ the home team and the revenge angle here. 8* Fairfield |
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02-07-16 | Hawks v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
8* Orlando (1:05 ET): The Magic have taken some excruciating losses recently. Just prior to picking up their ONLY win in the L30 days, January 31st vs. Boston, three times in a four-game span they blew a double digit lead and lost. The schedule makers have been unkind recently giving them a three-game stretch of Spurs, Thunder, Clippers. Against the Thunder, they lost on a last-second three-pointer by Kevin Durant. Overall, it has been a disastrous 2016 for Orlando as they have only two SU wins in 17 games played. Once a league-best 21-9 ATS through their first 30 games, the Magic have covered the spread in five of those L17 games. But, eventually, I think there's got to be a bit of a "resurgence." The Magic had covered three straight before Friday's loss to the Clippers. I like them here plus the points and likely to win the game outright. Atlanta is somewhat being dismissed after LY's somewhat fluky 60-win campaign. But they're still likely to win 50 this season and probably finish w/ a high seed in the Eastern Conference. That being said, they are not in the same class as recent Magic opponents. They're a little overvalued here due to coming in on a three-game SU and ATS win streak, but consider two of those wins were at home and the other was at Philadelphia. The Hawks still have a losing road record while giving up 101.6 points per game. They've shot the ball really well those L3 games (51.3% or better every time), but division games have given this team trouble in 2015-16. They average just 95.9 PPG vs. the rest of the Southeast, yet have somehow managed a winning (6-3 SU) record despite actually being outscored. Orlando is 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Atlanta this year, but the one loss here at home was close (decided by just three points). The Hawks have shot nearly 50 percent from three-point range in the two games (20 of 41), so the Magic must tighten up defensively tonight. At the same time, they're likely to shoot better here than they did in Atlanta three weeks ago (34.5 FG%). As a home dog of three points or less, Orlando has gone 3-1 SU/ATS this season. Meanwhile, the last two times that Atlanta was a road favorite, they lost outright and one of those games came at Phoenix. 8* Orlando |
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02-06-16 | Wichita State v. Illinois State +12.5 | Top | 53-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
8* Illinois State (10:00 ET): Maybe a later than normal start is what it will take to knock Wichita State out of the zone they've been in recently. While not "shocking" in the least that they're leading the Missouri Valley again this year, the ease with which the Shockers have mowed down their conference competition has been quite impressive. So far, they are 11-0 SU (10-1 ATS) in MVC play, winning by a startling average of 20.4 points per game. We know that the conference is "down" this year, but for the gap to be this big is something remarkable. That all being said, Illinois State is a team that can give Greg Marshall's team all they can handle. For evidence of that, look no further than last year's MVC Tournament when ISU upset them as eight-point pups. Take the points here. The Redbirds actually played the Shockers tough in all three meetings last year with every game decided by eight points or less. They come into the first meeting of 2016 having won four of five overall, the lone loss coming by three at Missouri State in overtime. They followed that up with a "surprise" win (were +3) at Loyola, an underrated team, so that definitely caught my eye. Illinois State is currently one of four teams tied at 7-4 SU in conference play, so this game actually means far more to them than it does to Wichita State. While an upset in one game typically results in a letdown the next, I don't believe that will be the case here even though it will be very difficult for the Redbirds to match their 58.3% shooting from Wednesday. One area where they are likely to improve though is at the free throw line where they were only 17 of 25 against the Ramblers. ISU is allowing just 64 PPG at home this year, so taking double digits seems like a real "steal" to me. Not once in the last three seasons have they been a home dog of this size. Note that all five of Wichita State's losses this season have been out on the road. The Shockers have covered eight straight games, which is hard to do, and I'm willing to bank that we've reached the "tipping point" with them. This is a national TV game, which is why it's starting so late and I do expect the crowd to be a factor. Led by MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds are shooting 46 percent from three-point range the last four games. 8* Illinois State |
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02-06-16 | Jazz v. Suns +6 | Top | 98-89 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): I went with the Suns as my 10* Game of the Week Thursday night and it paid off as they stayed within the number here at home vs. Houston, losing by only six. By all rights, that should have been their third straight cover as last Sunday saw them blow an outright lead in the fourth quarter in Dallas and end up losing by 13. That spelled the end for Jeff Hornacek and predictably we have seen the team play a little better for interim HC Earl Watson. They played a good Toronto team pretty tough Tuesday, losing by only seven there. For much of the game vs. Houston, they were close or had the lead. Tonight, they host a Utah team that is playing well (five-game win streak), but is in "over its head" as a road favorite of this magnitude. Take the points. The Jazz just played last night and won 84-81 over Milwaukee. Many times, I'll make the case that a team playing w/o rest is being undervalued. That's not the case here though. While Utah is very formidable defensively, they simply don't score enough to justify this lofty projection from the linesmaker. Consider that the last two games, both at home, have seen them allow 81 pts and not cover. Going back to a 94-80 loss at Minnesota right before the New Year, the Jazz have only two road wins and they came at the expense of the Lakers and Nets. While 4-1 ATS in the road favorite role this season, this number threatens to be the largest they've ever had to lay and their SU road record is just 7-15 SU w/ them averaging only 96.5 points per game. That's somewhat problematic. Consider that the Jazz are being asked to lay more points on the road than they were at home where they first met the Suns this season. Yes, they won that game handily and Phoenix has been the worst team in the league since Christmas. But the shift in the pointspread is too severe from where I sit. Especially because it's looking like Trey Burke will have to miss this one due to an illness. Burke is one of the team's six double digit scorers and given the overall lack of production on that end of the floor, he will be missed. If there's one thing that the Suns can do well, it's score, as they average 103.2 PPG here at home. 8* Phoenix |
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02-06-16 | Pistons v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers lost in Atlanta last night, but by my estimation come in undervalued for tonight's home date with division rival Detroit. Save for last night, Indiana has really cleaned up against Eastern Conference competition this year w/ a 20-8 ATS record. Meanwhile, the Pistons have a fairly striking home vs. road dichotomy as they're just 11-16 SU away from home compared to 16-8 in the Motor City and the ATS results are essentially identical. The Pacers have taken two of the three meetings so far this season, including a 12-point victory here at home just last month. In both victories, they have held the Pistons to only 82 points. Not only is Indiana 20-8 ATS vs. the rest of the East, but they are 8-2 ATS vs. their own division. Lay the points. Detroit has seen its scoring rise of late, most notably in a 111-point effort vs. the Knicks on Thursday. Since beating Golden State (at home) back on January 16th, the team is just 5-6 straight up overall and they've allowed 100+ pts in all but two games, against Utah and Philadelphia, who are two of the lowest scoring teams in the league. Indiana is averaging 103.8 PPG at home, so look for them to take advantage of the shoddy Detroit defense tonight. Despite a dominant advantage in rebounding last night (leading to a significant edge in second chance points), the Pacers could not really get things going offensively. Paul George was the exception as he hit seven three-pointers en route to a 31-point performance, but the rest of the team shot below 40 percent from the field. Here at home, the Pacers are 15-8 straight up and outscoring teams by an average of 5.6 points per game. As I already went over, the Pistons' defensive numbers are bad and that's due in large part to giving up 102.3 PPG on the road. This is also not a very good shooting team. On the road, their overall field goal percentage is 42.3% and that doesn't even take into account Andre Drummond's horrible marks at the free throw line. In terms of "true" shooting percentage, which does take FT shooting into account, only the Lakers are worse than the Pistons. This is one of those classic instances of a team being undervalued because it is playing in the second night of a back to back. 10* Indiana |
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02-06-16 | Massachusetts v. Richmond -10.5 | Top | 53-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
10* Richmond (6:00 ET): This is one of those situations that I love where the favorite is coming off a straight up loss and thus undervalued because their opponent happened to win SU as a dog their last time out. The underdog in question here is Massachusetts, who won at home (as 2-pt dogs) over Rhode Island Tuesday. One day later we saw Richmond, the favorite here, fall to George Mason as 13-point chalk. So that's the setup. Richmond has shockingly lost its last three home games, one to VCU, but all were relatively close and the team is still averaging slightly over 80 points per game in its own gym. UMass had gone nearly a month w/o a win before upending Rhode Island earlier in the week and I say its back to the losing end for the Minutemen Saturday night. Lay the points. This will be the only meeting between these schools this season unless they get matched up in the A-10 Tournament. Each of the last two seasons have seen Richmond come away with a three-point victory at Massachusetts expense. Those were also much better Minutemen teams that the Spiders faced. The last time UMass came calling here, they were actually 16-2 on the season! This year's bunch is near the bottom of the conference standings (ahead of only George Mason and La Salle) and the offensive numbers aren't pretty when you consider it took overtime just to get to 61 points in Tuesday's upset win over Rhode Island. That was actually the Minutemen's second straight OT game as they had come out on the losing end vs. Fordham last weekend. Prior to that though, five of their six A-10 losses had been by double digits. Richmond has also split a pair of OT games recently, including the loss to VCU. They did win at George Washington (double overtime there), but have since dropped B2B games. Offensively, the Spiders have been a little "off" those last two games (38.5 FG%), but one thing is for certain and that's they won't be nearly as off as Rhode Island was (30.0 FG%) against UMass on Tuesday. The Minutemen are bad team defensively as they allow 77.6 PPG. 10* Richmond |
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02-06-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. North Dakota State -2.5 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
10* North Dakota State (5:00 ET): We're going a bit "off the board" here, but for good reason. In case you were unaware, IUPUI-Ft Wayne has the best ATS record (17-3) in the entire country currently. But two of those three non-covers have come somewhat recently and this is a situation where they'll be playing on the road for a second time in three nights. The last time we saw this situation present itself to the Mastodons, they did cover, although they had to go to overtime to win a wild affair at Omaha, 106-101. IPFW was also an 8.5-point dog in that spot as the oddsmakers were still underrating them. Not tonight, however, as some good old regression is in store for the best ATS team in the country. Lay the points. That last time IPFW played consecutive road games, they were actually off a loss at South Dakota State, who they currently lead by just one-half game atop the Summit League standings. That was also the middle game of a three-game road trip. So, it was a little different when they beat Omaha compared to now. The money actually came pouring in AGAINST the Mastodons (as people are becoming more aware of this team's ATS exploits) Thursday at South Dakota (not State) and bettors paid the price as IPFW came through as a three-point underdog, winning outright by a score of 95-82. But they also got 44 points from Max Landis, the most by any player in a single game in program history. As a team, the Mastdons made a school record 20 three-pointers. That ain't happening again. In addition to simply playing against IPFW, I've got plenty of reason to back North Dakota State here. The Bison are off a 67-63 win over Oral Roberts Thursday and while they did not cover (were -6), they did lose leading scorer Paul Miller (16.5 PPG) to a knee injury during the game. Miller has been ruled out for today, but I liked what I saw from A.J. Jacobson Thursday and the Bison are getting to play a second straight game at home. This is a huge revenge spot to boot as not only did they lose by just five at IPFW last month, but they are just 1-13 ATS vs. the Mastodons all-time. That's another trend "due" to reverse itself. 10* North Dakota State |
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02-06-16 | Florida State v. Wake Forest +3 | Top | 91-71 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Danny Manning's Demon Deacons have had a "tough go" of it in the ACC this year, but I think it's important to note that many times this team has hung w/ the "big boys." Let's go back to before conference play even began, shall we? On December 22nd, Wake had an 18-point lead here in Winston-Salem against unbeaten Xavier. They blew that lead (and the cover). But they followed it up by beating Ben Simmons and LSU outright as seven-point road underdogs. They've also beaten Indiana, UCLA and Arkansas at home. Yes, ACC play has been unkind, but Florida State should not be coming in here as the favorite, especially after the Demon Deacons very nearly handed Virginia a loss on this floor just over a week ago. Take the points. That Virginia loss was another brutal one for the Deacons, perhaps the most brutal loss suffered by any team all season. They blew a 10-point lead with just over 90 seconds to go, giving up 18 points in the process including a miracle three-pointer at the buzzer. Predictably, after such an improbable defeat, things went south two days later w/ a bad loss at Notre Dame. Quite frankly, things weren't a whole lot better in the team's return to Winston-Salem Tuesday as they blew another halftime lead (this one of eight points) and lost to Clemson 76-62. The 56 second half points allowed (Clemson was 21 of 23 from the FT line) were a far cry from the 20 allowed before halftime. While times are tough right now (1-9 vs. ACC), I do believe Wake to be undervalued here as they have played the toughest schedule in the country according to most rating systems. Florida State comes in on a three-game win streak, most recently beating NC State by four at home. They aren't nearly as prolific offensively on the road, however, and this will be just the third time they're favored in another team's gym. The first saw them lose outright to Clemson on January 2nd. Then, laying 10, they won 72-62 at Boston College last weekend. Monday's win saw the Seminoles shoot 52.4% overall, including 36.4% from three-point range, which dare I say won't be repeated here. They had their own defensive issues in the 2H vs. NC State as well. 8* Wake Forest |
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02-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): I saw this number when it opened yday afternoon and was somewhat salivating at the chance to play it. My only hope was that the Knicks WOULDN'T be victorious last night and they weren't, though they did almost pull off a rally from 27 down in Detroit. The fact that they lost means the value we're getting here is less likely to be affected and the bottom line is that I think it's a real steal to be able to take points in this spot. My own personal power ratings disagree w/ the notion of Memphis being favored here and when analyzing the Grizzlies' season to date, I feel it's important to bring up how no other team in the league has a greater discrepancy between it's actual and "expected" win total (+7). Take the points. Though they ultimately came up short on the scoreboard last night, the Knicks "almost miracle rally" should have a "carryover" type effect into tonight. Keep in mind that the first half vs. the Pistons was likely their worst offensive showing of the season as they shot just 28 percent from the field and scored only 36 points. Perhaps for the first time this season, there's a growing sense of urgency in the Big Apple as the team has dropped seven of eight (only win vs. Phoenix) overall. They've barely shot 40 percent overall the L5 games and that's due to improve. For the season, they average 101.3 PPG here at MSG. It's a 6-5 ATS record this year for New York in the second of back to back games. Memphis, meanwhile, has won eight of nine and topped 100 points in all of those games. Simply put, they are due to regress back to their mean offensively as their 60.6% shooting from the last game (110-95 win at New Orleans) is highly unlikely to be repeated and on the road, they're averaging only 95.5 PPG. Something that I found interesting is that when these teams met three weeks ago, in Memphis, the Grizzlies were "only" a 5.5-point favorite. They did win 103-95 (Knicks were 5 of 20 from 3-point range), but in my opinion that margin of victory is not enough to justify the substantial swing in the line we've seen here. The Grizzlies still have a losing road record (10-13 SU) this season and following a double-digit win, they are 3-6 against the spread. 10* New York |
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02-05-16 | Kings v. Nets +6 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): When Sacramento beat Brooklyn 111-109 back on November 13th, they were 6.5-point home favorites. Now much has changed since that first meeting and there can be no denying that the Nets' season quickly went south. But, at the same time, I'm not so sure the Kings has gone so well as to justify this many swing in the pointspread for tonight's rematch at the Barclays Center. Sacramento, now the road team, is essentially laying a very similar number compared to what they were laying at home. Let's note that the Kings are a pretty awful road team w/ an 8-15 straight up record thanks to allowing 109.7 points per game (league worst) in such affairs. Brooklyn has its own set of issues, but is a good value here. Take the points. I've been through this before w/ Sacramento, but it somewhat astounds me that they've been favored in so many games recently. Wednesday marked the seventh time in the last nine games they've been in the chalk role and while they went 4-3 ATS in those games, twice they were laying two points or less at home. Laying this much weight on the road seems like a big ask for a team with so many issues defensively. They lost outright to Chicago, at home, Wednesday night. The final score there was 107-102 and keep in mind that the Bulls didn't have Jimmy Butler in the lineup. Despite that, the Kings trailed by double digits for much of the first half and beyond. Again, I believe it's critical to note that this is the worst defensive team in the league. Two of the three games in which Sacramento has been a road favorite this season, they have lost outright. The year 2016 has not been a good one so far for Brooklyn, nor does it figure to get that much better moving forward. They have dropped 15 of their last 17 games, going just 4-13 ATS. But if history is any indication, the Nets are in a good spot tonight as twice during that stretch they've lost five in a row, only to win the next time out. I had them two Sundays ago where as an even larger home dog, they beat Oklahoma City outright. They enter tonight on another five-game losing streak, but had covered vs. both New Orleans and Detroit before a 114-100 loss Wednesday vs. Indiana. The Kings should not be in the same price range as the Pacers, which they are here. 8* Brooklyn |
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02-05-16 | Cornell v. Brown +2.5 | Top | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
8* Brown (7:00 ET): Cornell had quite the week last week. They went to both Harvard (as 10-pt underdogs) and Dartmouth (as 3.5-pt underdogs) and the pulled off two upsets, but the schedule makers are keeping them out on the road this weekend for another pair of away games and eventually that has to catch up w/ a team. Tonight, they visit Brown, who won last Saturday here at home against Penn, 89-83 as two-point chalk. Something to watch is the status of Cornell's leading scorer, Robert Hatter, who also leads the team in assists. He has missed the last four games. But despite Hatter being listed as probable to return here, I don't like the idea of the Big Red laying points in this spot as a 14-2 ATS run here in Providence is due to halt sooner rather than later. Take the points. Playing without their leading scorer, Cornell received a major contribution last week from freshman Matt Morgan, who came out of almost nowhere to total 65 points. Morgan first scored a career-high 33 pts in the 77-65 win at Harvard, then it was 32 more in Saturday's narrow 77-73 win at Dartmouth. Free throw shooting also played a significant role in those two Big Red victories. In both upsets, they made more FT's than their opponents even attempted, which is pretty surprising considering they were the road team. Helping their cause further, Harvard missed 11 of 17 FT's. Cornell then got to the line an absurd 35 times Saturday in Dartmouth. Winning the battle at the charity stripe seems odd for a team that for the year shoots just 64.6% there. (Brown, for the record, is at 71.9%) I would expect both Morgan and the team's FT shooting to start to regress here. This seems like a pretty even matchup on paper, so I'm not entirely sure as to why the road team would be laying points. Cornell is still only 5-6 SU away from home this year, giving up 81.5 points per game. Although they admittedly won the last game, it's hard to rectify how the Big Red were underdogs in Dartmouth and now are favored here. As you can tell, this is more of a play AGAINST Cornell than anything else, but I would also expect Brown's recent shooting woes to be rectify themselves. 8* Brown |
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02-04-16 | Portland +12 v. Pepperdine | Top | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* Portland (11:00 ET): Well, here I go again. The Pilots have let me down the last two times they've taken off, first losing outright at home last Thursday to San Francisco, then doing the same vs. Santa Clara two days later. After missing on the linesmakers projections by a total of 27 points in those two games, they now find themselves as double digit dogs for a visit to Pepperdine, who they actually beat earlier in the WCC campaign. So this looks to be a great value w/ Portland already having beaten this same opponent, by eight, as two-point underdogs. Since then, they've crashed and burned, losing eight of nine while Pepperdine has gone 7-2 SU. But this remains an inflated number nevertheless. Take the points. Pepperdine, who beat St. Mary's on this floor (as eight-point dogs) saw its four-game win streak snapped on Saturday with an 11-point setback at the hands of BYU. The Waves just did get under the 11.5-point spot in that one, so they've now covered five in a row, thus all the more reason for overinflation. There was nothing that fluky about Portland's win back on December 23rd, though they did make 10 three-pointers. Still though, the Pilots can score (78.2 PPG), so taking this many points really is attractive. I'm hoping they can play a little defense as well as that has been an issue for them throughout conference play. They allowed Santa Clara to shoot 53.4 percent Saturday night, thus nullifying their own strong offensive showing. Still, it's telling that only one of their WCC losses has been by more than 12 points. Pepperdine might still be unbeaten at home (9-0 SU), but as a favorite they've struggled to cover the spread in WCC play, well until recently. They opened conference play 0-4 ATS as chalk, but have since covered the last three times in that role. But only one of those tickets was punched as a DD favorite and that came against last place San Diego. Keep in mind that the Waves' last four games have come against just two different opponents, San Diego and BYU. They have a couple of big games looming on the horizon (Gonzaga, St. Mary's), so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them overlook this game a bit. 8* Portland |
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02-04-16 | UC-Davis v. CS-Fullerton -3.5 | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
10* CS Fullerton (10:00 ET): Yes, the revenge angle is often overplayed in handicapping circles. But I feel it applies here with Cal State Fullerton looking to avenge last week's 69-64 loss to Big West rival Cal Davis. Note that Fullerton did lead that game, by two, at the half. Neither team goes very deep into the respective benches as there were a total of two points scored from all non-starters in that first meeting. I feel that homecourt advantage will also play a vital role here as UC Davis has just one win away from home all season (in 10 games) and averages only 64.2 points per game. For the season, the Aggies actually rank outside the Top 300 in scoring overall! Look for the home team to gain a much needed win and revenge Thursday night. The Titans (CS Fullerton) are now 1-6 SU and in last place in the Big West following another setback, this one coming by 10 (71-61) to UC Riverside here at home on Saturday. Again though, that was another game they led at the half. The defensive numbers in the second half (54 pts allowed) look pretty ugly, but consider that Riverside ended up going to the free throw line a total of 34 times (made 30!), which was significant as Fullerton finished just 12 for 19 at the charity stripe despite being the home team. The Titans have now dropped six in a row overall, but clearly shouldn't have to worry about giving up many points here and UC Davis is just terrible from the foul line (62.9%). With their next three games taking place out on the road, this is really a "must win" for Fullerton. UC Davis, meanwhile, has won four of its last five (4-0 ATS L4) after opening the season just 5-10 straight up. Three of those four wins, including the one over CS Fullerton, were by five points or less and then Saturday saw them pull off a real shocker, beating Cal Poly 66-52 as a four-point home underdog. But, again, this team has just one win away from home all season. It came against Utah Valley State (non-board team) back in late November. They have dropped their three Big West road games by an average of nearly 20 points per game and also lost at Seattle (non-board team) earlier this year. 10* CS Fullerton |
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02-04-16 | Rockets v. Suns +8 | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Of course, this will be the second straight time I've used the Suns as my *10* Game of the Week. Obviously, given the current state of the team, it's a bit risky. They did lose for me Sunday (last game w/ Jeff Hornacek on the bench) in Dallas and failed to cover, but it should be noted that they actually led that game outright (as 12-pt underdogs) w/ just over six minutes remaining (somehow ended up losing by 13). A miserable nine-point fourth quarter there was likely the final nail in Hornacek's "coffin," as the team obviously should have at least been able to cover there. Cover is what Phoenix did do in its first game under interim HC Earl Watson, losing only 104-97 to a vastly superior Toronto team that was looking to rebound from an embarrassing defeat. I say take the points here. Houston simply does not deserve to be in this price range, especially on the road. Consider that where the line opened here was almost identical to what the Raptors were asked to lay Tuesday here in Phoenix and the debate isn't even close as to who's better - Toronto or Houston. Also, it should be pointed out that while the Suns are an absolutely atrocious 4-22 SU on the road this season, they are a more respectable 10-14 SU at home while being dead even in terms of points for and against. The Rockets, meanwhile, have a losing road record and have been outscored by nearly three full points per game in those contests (allow 107.8 PPG). I realize that Houston just beat Miami by double digits (at home) and Dwight Howard (who could eventually be traded) is back from a one-game suspension, but this team just isn't that good in my estimation. Normally, after a coaching change, we see a team display some short-term improvement. As mentioned above, the Suns did cover Tuesday night vs. a good Toronto team and honestly it was a crime they didn't do the same in Dallas Sunday. This is one of those situations where the line is actually coming down despite the majority of the bets being on the favorite, so it does appear as if the so-called "smart money" is on the home dog in this one. Houston is just 14-19 ATS as a favorite this year and Howard's return may not be the "blessing" that it appears to be considering the team has lost the five times he's played, giving up a startling average of 126.4 PPG. It is also unlikely the Rockets match their 52.4 FG% from Tuesday night. 10* Phoenix |
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Bryan Power Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-07-16 | North Dakota State +2 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 69-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
03-06-16 | North Dakota State -4 v. IUPU-Indianapolis | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
03-06-16 | Blazers v. Pistons | Top | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
03-05-16 | Rockets v. Bulls +1 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
03-05-16 | Louisville v. Virginia -5 | Top | 46-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
03-05-16 | Iowa +1.5 v. Michigan | Top | 71-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
03-05-16 | Pistons v. Knicks +6 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
03-05-16 | Pacers +2 v. Wizards | Top | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
03-05-16 | South Dakota +6 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 70-86 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
03-04-16 | Nets +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
03-04-16 | Knicks v. Celtics -9.5 | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
03-04-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo -7.5 | Top | 79-75 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
03-04-16 | Pacers +3 v. Hornets | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
03-03-16 | Stanford v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
03-03-16 | Marist +2.5 v. Manhattan | Top | 63-81 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
03-03-16 | Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -10.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
03-03-16 | California v. Arizona -6.5 | Top | 61-64 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
03-03-16 | Suns +14 v. Heat | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
03-02-16 | Oregon v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
03-02-16 | Pistons v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 81-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
03-02-16 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
03-02-16 | Bulls +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
03-02-16 | Fordham v. Duquesne -4.5 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
03-01-16 | San Diego State v. New Mexico +1.5 | Top | 83-56 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
03-01-16 | Indiana v. Iowa -4 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
03-01-16 | Blazers v. Knicks +5.5 | Top | 104-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
02-29-16 | Nets v. Clippers -13 | Top | 95-105 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
02-29-16 | 76ers +12.5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
02-29-16 | Syracuse v. North Carolina -12 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
02-28-16 | Blazers v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
02-28-16 | Xavier v. Seton Hall +2 | Top | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
02-27-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3 | Top | 121-118 | Push | 0 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
02-27-16 | South Dakota v. Western Illinois +1 | Top | 76-90 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
02-27-16 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee -3 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 104 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
02-27-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. IUPU-Indianapolis +1.5 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
02-26-16 | Nuggets v. Mavs -5 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
02-26-16 | Iona v. Manhattan +6 | Top | 86-73 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
02-25-16 | Nets v. Suns +2 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
02-25-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Western Illinois +2.5 | Top | 87-75 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
02-25-16 | Northern Kentucky v. Cleveland State | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
02-24-16 | Wisconsin v. Iowa -7.5 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
02-24-16 | Nuggets +10.5 v. Clippers | Top | 87-81 | Win | 102 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
02-24-16 | Arizona v. Colorado +6 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
02-24-16 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7 | Top | 69-58 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
02-24-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -8 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
02-22-16 | Warriors v. Hawks +7.5 | Top | 102-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
02-22-16 | Raptors v. Knicks +4 | Top | 122-95 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
02-22-16 | Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -1 | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
02-21-16 | Lakers v. Bulls -7 | Top | 115-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
02-21-16 | Wichita State v. Indiana State +11.5 | Top | 84-51 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
02-20-16 | Warriors v. Clippers +5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
02-20-16 | Santa Clara v. Pepperdine -9.5 | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
02-20-16 | Missouri v. Arkansas -11 | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
02-20-16 | Troy State v. Appalachian State -3.5 | Top | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
02-20-16 | Xavier v. Georgetown +4.5 | Top | 88-70 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
02-19-16 | Celtics v. Jazz | Top | 93-111 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
02-19-16 | Spurs -11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
02-19-16 | Rockets v. Suns +8 | Top | 116-100 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
02-19-16 | Heat +9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
02-19-16 | Dartmouth v. Cornell -1.5 | Top | 78-66 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
02-18-16 | UC-Davis v. Cal Poly -9 | Top | 53-58 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
02-18-16 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Georgia State +5.5 | Top | 57-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
02-18-16 | Jazz v. Wizards +1 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
02-18-16 | NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary -2 | Top | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
02-17-16 | Indiana State +6 v. Illinois State | Top | 50-78 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
02-16-16 | Iowa State v. Baylor -2 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
02-16-16 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -9 | Top | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
02-16-16 | Creighton v. Butler -5 | Top | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
02-15-16 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro +1 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 101 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
02-14-16 | USC v. Arizona -8.5 | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
02-14-16 | Canisius +2 v. St. Peter's | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
02-14-16 | Syracuse v. Boston College +11.5 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
02-13-16 | Pepperdine v. Pacific +3.5 | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
02-13-16 | Tulsa v. Connecticut -8 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
02-13-16 | Wyoming v. Boise State -9.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
02-13-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit +1 | Top | 66-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
02-12-16 | Ohio v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 94-75 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
02-11-16 | Iowa v. Indiana -1 | Top | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
02-11-16 | Oregon v. California +2 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
02-11-16 | North Dakota v. Eastern Washington -6.5 | Top | 85-95 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
02-10-16 | Nuggets v. Pistons -5.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
02-10-16 | St. Joe's v. George Washington -2.5 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
02-09-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida -9 | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
02-09-16 | Wizards v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
02-09-16 | Wichita State v. Drake +19 | Top | 74-48 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
02-08-16 | Lakers v. Pacers -11 | Top | 87-89 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
02-07-16 | Manhattan v. Fairfield -4 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
02-07-16 | Hawks v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
02-06-16 | Wichita State v. Illinois State +12.5 | Top | 53-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
02-06-16 | Jazz v. Suns +6 | Top | 98-89 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
02-06-16 | Pistons v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
02-06-16 | Massachusetts v. Richmond -10.5 | Top | 53-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
02-06-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. North Dakota State -2.5 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
02-06-16 | Florida State v. Wake Forest +3 | Top | 91-71 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
02-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
02-05-16 | Kings v. Nets +6 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
02-05-16 | Cornell v. Brown +2.5 | Top | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
02-04-16 | Portland +12 v. Pepperdine | Top | 73-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
02-04-16 | UC-Davis v. CS-Fullerton -3.5 | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
02-04-16 | Rockets v. Suns +8 | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |