Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-17 | Virginia -1.5 v. Clemson | 77-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
8* Virginia (12:00 ET): I routinely clown on the polls only because they are often a very poor guide for evaluating the top teams. Case in point; my play earlier this week against #1 Baylor, who no reasonable mind truly believed was the best team in the country. Even though the Bears were unbeaten, they were underdogs in Morgantown and subsequently got clobbered 89-68 by WVU. Here, it's a similar situation, only in reverse. Virginia is currently ranked #19, but the idea that there are 18 teams better than Tony Bennett's Hoos is just ludicrous. No doubt Clemson will be highly motivated here, at home and looking to break a three-game losing streak. But this number is just way too short. Lay the points. Virginia was on its own losing streak (two games) before routing Wake Forest on Sunday, 79-62 as 12-pt chalk. The Cavs shot 49.1% overall from the floor, including a blistering 9 of 19 from three-point range. Of course, there was also their trademark defense, which held Wake to 40.4% overall and 6 of 21 from three-point range. In case you were unaware, UVA ranks 4th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allows just 52.1 points per game, fewest in the country. In their two recent losses, they gave up more than that, including an uncharacteristic 88 in their last road game, at Pitt. But I view that as "blip" on the radar, nothing more. The Cavs also have the edge here in that they've been off for five days while Clemson is playing for the second time in three days. The last time the Hoos had this much time off, they won their next game by 40 points! Clemson is 7-1 SU in Death Valley where the students are probably still partying over last Monday's College Football Playoff. The Tigers allow just 64.1 PPG at home, but the L3 games have seen them allow more than that YTD average (79.7). That includes an 89-86 home loss to North Carolina. Over the last week, they've lost at both Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. They lost by double digits, as 10-pt favorites, Thursday in Atlanta (at Ga Tech). Clemson fans got to cheer for one big win this week; history will not repeat itself here. 8* Virginia |
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01-13-17 | Cavs v. Kings +7 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:35 ET): Cleveland is not playing well right now, which should be readily apparent by the fact the World Champs are on a six-game ATS losing skid in the New Year. They've also lost three of those games outright, including the L2, at Utah and Portland in a set of back to backs. Before that, they struggled to put away low-level teams such as Brooklyn and Phoenix. So this has hardly been a productive road trip for LeBron and company and w/ this being the fifth game in eight days (and Golden State looming on MLK Day), even a visit to Sacramento may not turn things around. The Kings are off a win Tuesday night as they beat Detroit 100-94, a game where I cashed the Under. Take the points here. Before beating the Pistons, Sacramento was able to stay within the number against Golden State here at home. By comparison to that line (+11.5), this one appears to be too low. Unlike road-weary Cleveland, the Kings should be fine situationally as they've been off for two days and this will be their fifth straight home game (seven-game stand). At home, Sacramento has generally been competitive. They've been outscored here by only 1.0 PPG and when on two days' rest this year, they are 4-1 SU w/ a scoring margin of +8.2 PPG. Cleveland is just 4-12 ATS vs. teams w/ a losing record this year and their overall ATS record is near the bottom of the league. Part of the issue is that team defensive has fallen off a cliff this year as the Cavs are just middle of the road in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. They are giving up 104.4 PPG on the road. Even with the recent addition of Kyle Korver, depth remains a concern as this team doesn't have a backup point guard and HC Ty Lue is playing a pretty short rotation. The "Big 3" of LeBron, Love and Kyrie could very well lead the team to victory tonight, but it won't be by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for here. 8* Sacramento |
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01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): The Eastern Conference has clearly taken shape w/ two teams (Cleveland, Toronto) on top and 3-4 (Brooklyn, Philly, Miami and probably Orlando) off the pace. Everyone else is bunched up in the middle. Boston was supposed to be Cleveland's top challenger this year and they are currently third. Right behind them, sitting in fourth, is Atlanta. The Hawks got off to a good start this year, but then had a terrible finish to November, leaving them treading water. But all of a sudden they've won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six. But while the Celtics can justify their place in the East pecking order, I view Atlanta as a bit overrated. Until their last game, they'd been outscored over the course of the season. The better team is getting points here. The Hawks just swept a four-game road trip, but it was hardly a daunting trip. The four teams they beat - Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn - all have win percentages of .400 or below. Here at home, they did upset San Antonio on New Year's Day. But w/ New York and Detroit being the other victims, that's just one winning team out of seven opponents that the Hawks have beaten during this streak. This will be their first time playing the Celtics since eliminating them in six games in LY's playoffs. That should clearly have Boston motivated here. The C's have lost six straight times in Atlanta, but are 13-6 ATS in road games this season. Despite being a bit short-handed, Boston has won 11 of 14, the only losses being of the close variety to OKC, Cleveland and Toronto. After losing to the Raptors Tuesday, there was an immediate bounce back Wednesday at home vs. Washington. They beat the Wizards 117-108 as 5.5-pt chalk. Isaiah Thomas led the way (again) w/ 38 points as the team shot better than 50 percent from the floor. The former Hawk, Al Horford also continues to play well. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that Atlanta appeared to be in "teardown" mode as they dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. While a viable contender for one of the final playoff spots in the East, the Hawks have overachieved of late, simply taking advantage of a weak slate of games. 10* Boston |
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01-13-17 | Yale +1.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Yale (8:00 ET): The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Yale has yet to play an Ivy League game, but they come into 2017 as the co-favorite to win the conference, along w/ Princeton. Penn just played Princeton on Saturday and I faded the Quakers in that spot. Sure enough, they failed to cover as 8.5 pt dogs (lost 61-52). While they weren't blown out and close to covering, I still see value in going against the Quakers again tonight. It's telling that they still lost to Princeton despite holding the short-handed Tigers to just 34.7% shooting from the field. It's tempting to credit the Penn defense for some of the past shooting percentages we've seen from opponents, but really I don't think it's sustainable. Yale comes in shooting at a nice 46.9% clip for the season. Take the points. Now, clearly, things won't be as easy for Yale as they were their last time out. On Saturday, they took on Mitchell College and won 102-46, thanks to shooting 61.5% for the game. The Bulldogs have not played a ton of lined games this year, but three of their five SU losses this year have come at the expense of Virginia, Pitt and Temple, all of those on the road. They did cover at Pitt (lost by only 5) and then they lost by only 6 at Temple. So, it's not as if they haven't been challenged. They've also gone to Washington this year and won. So far, they have managed to outscore opponents by 8.4 points per game while ranking 15th nationally in assists per game (17.8) and shooting 39.2% from three-point range. Six players average at least nine points per game w/ five of them shooting above 40% from behind the arc. One thing is for certain and that's Yale has had Penn's number through the years. They've beaten the Quakers eight straight times (four season sweeps) and done so by an average of greater than 15 points per game. The series history only makes this line seem more curious. Offensively, Penn continues to struggle as they average only 66.9 PPG, which is 301st. They are also only 261st in rebounds per game. One has to think if their opponents start shooting better, it could be a long year for the Quakers. Yale is more than capable of shooting well. 8* Yale |
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01-12-17 | Belmont v. Morehead State +4.5 | Top | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Morehead State (7:00 ET): It can't be understated what a big game this is for Morehead State as they get the best team in the Ohio Valley in their gym. At home is where all six of the Eagles victories have come this year (they're 0-8 off-campus) and they are averaging a whopping 91.4 points per game here. They've experienced a lot of close losses this year (two in overtime), but come into tonight's showdown off B2B wins over Eastern Illinois and SIU Edwardsville. Belmont is 3-0 SU already in OVC play and has won eight of nine overall. But this is the start of a tough stretch for them as they'll be playing two road games in the next three days. I "smell an upset" brewing tonight down in Kentucky. Take the points. Morehead State actually needed to rally from a slight halftime deficit to get by SIU Edwardsville in their last game. But it wound up being a 13-pt victory thanks to controlling the paint (30-22 edge in pts) and points off turnovers (19 off 22). This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it's not an embellishment to say this will likely be the biggest regular season game of the year on campus. Home court advantage has proven vital in past meetings between these two schools w/ the host team taking seven of nine. That includes both last year. Over the L2 seasons, it's been nothing but close games between the two w/ all four meetings decided by six points or less and three decided by two points or less. Again, the home team has won every time. Morehead State has lost all eight games in which it has been an underdog this season, but only one of those was here at home. That was to an East Tennessee State side that looks like it may win the SoCon. Meanwhile, Belmont has failed to cover the L2 times it has been road chalk, those games taking place at WI-Milwaukee (won by 6) and Austin Peay (won by 5). Something of concern for the Bruins is that they shoot just 25.7% from three-point range on the road. That will make it difficult to keep up w/ the high scoring Eagles, who shoot over 37% from long range overall. Until they scored 31 pts over the final 10 minutes Saturday vs. SE Missouri State, Belmont was actually trailing at home. 8* Morehead State |
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01-12-17 | La Salle v. Rhode Island -12 | Top | 87-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): The Rams, fairly quietly, have found themselves on the fringes of the Top 25 for most of this year. However, in the latest poll (released earlier this week), they didn't even receive a single vote. That's probably due to the fact that last Friday saw them drop a home game to fellow A-10 power Dayton, 67-64. But, as I always harp on, the polls should not really be used as any reliable guide to betting College Hoops (see Baylor-WVU). URI is still a top 35 team country in my estimation (Lunardi has them in the field of 68, FWIW), which is a lot better than tonight's opponent, LaSalle, a team I've had no problem fading so far this season. I anticipate the Explorers' lack of defense will cost them another A-10 affair tonight. Lay the points. Ironically, the last time I played against LaSalle, it was a poor effort at the offensive end that cost them. On December 30th, they were held to a season-low 55 points on 36% shooting as they lost at Dayton, 66-55. I'd previously played against them in a visit to Georgetown and there they allowed 93 pts in another double digit road loss. Defense has been the primary concern for the Explorers, even though they've responded w/ B2B wins since losing to Dayton. In the last game, as 11.5-pt home faves, they still allowed 81 points in a narrow win over Duquense. Their other win was against St. Louis. Safe to say, that those two wins came against two of the bottom three in the A-10 (along w/ Fordham). Not only is LaSalle allowing its opponents to shoot 47.3% from the floor overall, including 40% from three-point range, but they are giving up a ghastly 86.5 PPG away from home as well! Rhode Island has dominated LaSalle the last two seasons, winning all four matchups. Three of the wins have been by double digits. At home this year, the Rams are unbeaten (8-0!), winning by an average margin 18.1 PPG. Defensively, they are stout, holding teams to just 64.2 PPG overall. Off the loss to Dayton, I expect this team to be fired up to take the floor tonight. They turned the ball over 17 times vs. Dayton, costing them a game they led for most of the first 28 minutes. This is also the best offensive team in terms of points per possession in the A-10. 10* Rhode Island |
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01-11-17 | Illinois State v. Southern Illinois +6 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Southern Illinois (8:00 ET): I'm always a bit cautious when it comes to taking a team off an upset victory. Here, Southern Illinois did just go on the road and beat Missouri State 75-67 - as 9-pt underdogs - on Saturday. But the Salukis are returning to Carbondale for tonight's tilt w/ in-state rival Illinois State. Taking points again, I believe they're a strong value. This is ISU's second consecutive road game as they too are off a win; 77-58 at Indiana State. But make no mistake about it; Larry Bird wasn't playing for the Sycamores on Saturday. Illinois State may still be unbeaten in MVC play (4-0 SU), but they have a giant lookahead to conference heavyweight Wichita State (whom they get at home) on Saturday. Take the points here. Interestingly enough, Southern Illinois beat Missouri State by a wider margin on the road than Illinois State did at home. Missouri State is a "middle of the road" team in the MVC, so they can serve as somewhat of a good barometer. Illinois State played them first, winning 74-71 (as eight-point favorites) at home, but needed overtime. That's one of only two games out of the last nine that the Redbirds have failed to cover. Three days later saw SIU go to Missouri State and record an upset. That was the Salukis' third straight win, so they come in hot as well. What was most impressive about Southern Illinois' performance on Saturday is that they took the lead five minutes into the game and never relinquished it. Now Illinois State was definitely impressive Saturday as well. Led by a career-best 31 pts from MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds routed Indiana State w/ a dominant first half performance (led 47-24 at the break). But I wouldn't look for them to go 13 of 25 from three-point range again here. While the Redbirds are ninth nationally in field goal percentage defense, they will have to contend w/ a SIU team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home. The Salukis are 8-2 SU in Carbondale so far, covering five of their six lined games here. They've also done their own strong job on the defensive end, particularly at converting opponents' turnovers into points. In seven straight games, they've scored at least 12 pts off TO's! 10* Southern Illinois |
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01-11-17 | Dayton v. Massachusetts +6 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Massachusetts (7:00 ET): Dayton is a team some might consider worthy of Top 25 consideration as they have only three losses, all of them by four points or less. But I believe them to be a tad bit overvalued for tonight's venture into UMass. The Flyers are indeed "flying high" off five straight victories, the last four of which have also resulted in covers. Friday saw them down a good Rhode Island team, 67-64, as a short home dog. But this is just their third "true" road game so far and UMass will be a lot tougher than St. Bonaventure was at the start of the month. UMass will also be a desperate bunch as they've lost three straight, the last two coming on the road to George Mason and VCU. Take the points. Prior to this three-game losing skid that they're currently on, UMass had been playing pretty well. They were 10-3 SU going into the final game of 2016, which wound up being an outright home loss to St. Bonaventure. The Minutemen were two-point favorites there and have since lost as underdogs at George Mason (86-81) and VCU (81-64). Dayton signifies a drop in class from VCU and they're getting them in Amherst, so this should be an easier game for the Minutemen. It also shapes up almost as a "must-win" since this weekend sees them traveling to Rhode Island, another game where they'll be an underdog. I'm sure the upperclassmen remember LY's lone meeting w/ Dayton, a road game which resulted in a 30-point loss. Revenge! Dayton shot "lights out" in that lone meeting last season, finishing at 56% from the field, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. I certainly would not expect any kind of repeat of those numbers tonight. The Flyers were kind to me back on 12.30, beating LaSalle 66-55, ironically "doing it w/ defense" against an Explorers team that is really bad defensively. Since then, they've ripped St. Bonaventure for 90 points and then came the three-point win over Rhode Island. But consider they trailed the Rhodies for the first 32 minutes of that contest. While Dayton may still unbeaten in A-10 play, UMass is 4-2 ATS as a underdog this season. 8* Massachusetts |
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01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7.5 | 117-97 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): It takes a lot to get me to endorse the Nets, but getting this many points against a mediocre Atlanta outfit is enough to justify a play. Over the last week, there seems to be a real 180 degree turn in philosophy by the Hawks' franchise. Last week, they were putting their best player (Paul Milsap) on the market and also dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. But a four-game win streak seems to have changed management's idea of being "sellers" at the deadline. While they can't bring Korver back, Milsap has reportedly been taken off the market. But while the team may now find itself in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, I still look at a team w/ an efficiency rating of 0.0 as pretty pedestrian and a good fade as a road favorite. So take the points. Brooklyn should be motivated here as they're off an embarrassing home loss to Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. While the final score says they lost by 10, they were actually up 11 at the start of the second half. Being outscored 32-16 in the third quarter was the key to the entire game as they held the Sixers below 40% shooting overall. That being the Nets' sixth straight loss aside, the team has actually been competitive here at Barclays Center w/ a 10-8 ATS record (7-11 straight up). They demonstrated that competitiveness by hanging with Cleveland Friday night, losing that game by only eight as 13.5-pt dogs. While the Nets have only one win in the L12 games overall, it was at home (against Charlotte) in almost the exact same price range as tonight. Atlanta is looking to complete a perfect road trip here, but let's not go congratulating them too much, okay? The three teams they've beaten so far on the trip are: Orlando, New Orleans and Dallas. They did upset San Antonio, at home, on New Year's Day. But that win and the one in New Orleans both came by five points or less. There have been two previous times this season where the Hawks have been coming off three consecutive road games and both instances saw them lose the game and fail to cover. Without Korver, this team will be unable to maintain its' hot 40%+ shooting from three-point range that we've seen in the L6 games. 8* Brooklyn |
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01-10-17 | Baylor v. West Virginia -5.5 | 68-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Baylor may be unbeaten and the new "#1" in the country. Kansas may be the standard-bearer of excellence in the conference. But, for my money, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 this year and I'm on 'em again Tuesday night in Morgantown. Though they failed to cover Saturday (by one-half point) here against TCU, it was still a nice bounce back from Bob Huggins' Mountaineers after suffering just their second loss of the season the game previous (at Texas Tech). As you can tell, the oddsmakers have little respect for the pollsters here as they've installed the supposed "#1 team in the country" as an underdog. They are correct in doing so. Lay the points. Here at home, WVU is 9-0 SU this season (33-5 SU L38), winning by an average margin of 36.1 points per game. They only beat TCU by 12 on Saturday, but led the entire way (by 11 at half). What cost them the cover was a second half swoon where the Horned Frogs went from 13 down to tie the game. But, in the end, Huggins will take it. His trademark press forced TCU into a season-high in turnovers (18), which is the norm for WVU opponents. Last year, in a home and home sweep of Baylor, the Mountaineers surprisingly only forced 24 turnovers in the two games. But they held the Bears to 37% shooting and won both games by 11 points anyway. I don't think anybody - besides the pollsters - really thinks Baylor is the top team in America. In fact, they are not even in my top five. Remember, coming into the year, they were picked to finish fifth - in the Big 12 - by those who supposedly know the conference. Their ascension from being unranked to #1 in the polls is impressive, but also greatly aided by the fact they've played just one "true" road game thus far, that being at Oklahoma, who is the weakest team in the league. They did win in Norman by 16, but since then it's been a pair of narrow victories, by two over Iowa State and by four vs. Oklahoma State, both at home. Kansas came into Morgantown ranked #1 in the country last year and lost. Also, WVU just destroyed the same Oklahoma State team - by 17 - in Stillwater. 8* West Virginia |
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01-10-17 | Eastern Michigan -1.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 81-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): At first glance, Eastern Michigan hardly seems like an ideal candidate to lay points with, even a short number like this one, on the road. The Eagles are just 2-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti this season and just dropped a game there, as 7.5-pt favorites, to Buffalo on Saturday. But here they'll be faced w/ a team outside of the top 200 nationally and that's Bowling Green. The Falcons seem to be flying high off an upset of Ball State (in Muncie) on Saturday, but tonight promises to be a crash landing of sorts. Eastern Michigan will have revenge on its mind for losing LY in Ypsilanti - as 8.5-pt chalk - to the Falcons. That was a game where they dug too large a hole early (trailed by 11 at the half) to climb out of. Prior to the loss Sunday, EMU had won three straight, all by 22 points or greater. Granted, all those games were at home. But they've actually already covered as road chalk once this year, laying a much bigger number in fact, at Detroit. As a favorite, the Eagles are 4-1 ATS this season and won 20 of 27 straight up the L3 seasons. So what went wrong Saturday? Well, for starters, they shot the ball poorly (only 36.8%). For the season, this is a team connecting at above a 45% clip. The Eagles did lead for a good portion of the game Saturday before succumbing to a late Buffalo run. It also didn't help that as the home team, EMU attempted less FT's than did Buffalo. I expect the Eagles to play better tonight. After all, this is a top 25 scoring offense in the country at 83.8 PPG. Bowling Green pulled the upset at Ball State on Saturday as they were able to rally from a halftime deficit. Attempting 11 more free throws certainly helped. That kind of margin is certainly unusual for the road team. Also, Ball State was an abysmal 4 of 25 from three-point range. The Falcons' defense does do a good job at turning their opponents over, but EMU won't be shooting anywhere near that poorly here tonight. In fact, if anything, it will be the Eagles' trademark 2-3 zone that should "rule the day" defensively. Consider that Eastern Michigan was a nine-point favorite AT Detroit while BGSU was asked to lay the same number here at home. Not sure why the linesmakers' discrepancy has grown so much tighter in less than a month, but take advantage and lay the very short number. 10* Eastern Michigan |
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01-09-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): It's pretty shocking (at least to me!) that through 37 games, the T'wolves have the exact same record as do the Mavericks (11-26 SU). IMO, Minnesota has been the better team all season. Unfortunately for them, they have been unable to close out games and while the "future is bright" here, it's clear that making the playoffs is not a realistic goal, until next season. That said, I do feel that at home the T'wolves should be able to handle the Mavs tonight. Dallas came up short in what I thought would be an advantageous spot, at home vs. Atlanta Sat night, which says a lot about the current state of this team. They are not good on the road by the way; 4-15 SU getting outscored by over eight points per game. Minnesota has been a money loser when favored (5-10 ATS) this season and their inability to string together any kind of win streak (only won B2B games once!) is largely what's doomed them. They come into tonight on a four-game losing streak, two of those losses coming by just two points. However, they did cover Saturday night in Utah, improving to 6-1 ATS when on a losing streak of 3+ games. However, to players and fans, that's a Pyrrhic victory as the team blew an 11-pt lead by scoring only 12 pts in the fourth quarter. Tonight, they not only snap the losing streak, but they cover the spread w/ room to spare. I still have faith in HC Tom Thibodeau to turn this thing around as he has THREE 20+ pt scorers - Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. Dallas has not been healthy for much of this season. But even though they are now, they've still lost three of four, including an ugly 82-point effort Saturday at home vs. Atlanta. That followed an outright loss (again at home) to Phoenix. This is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and on the road they average only 94.2 points per game. Saturday marked the sixth time this year that they've scored 85 points or less. They are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS off the previous five. This is a big revenge game for the T'wolves as well as they lost all four H2H meetings vs. Dallas last season. 8* Minnesota |
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01-09-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern -7.5 | Top | 79-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): This is a triple revenge spot for Ga Southern, who lost three times (including Sun Belt tourney) to South Alabama last year. Plus, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot for USA, who I would rate as the worst overall team in the league. That combination of factors has me laying the points Monday night. Ga Southern has won five of its last six, the only loss coming at Winthrop (a game they were NOT expected to win) by two points. Meanwhile, South Alabama is coming off B2B one-point games, the last being a 78-77 loss to Georgia State on Saturday that will prove difficult to get over. While South Alabama should end up residing at the bottom of the Sun Belt, Ga Southern should end up being close to the top. Right now, I'd consider them third in the pecking order, behind only UL Lafayette and TX-Arlington. Saturday saw them down Troy here at home, 86-82, as 5.5-pt favorites. That failure to cover, I believe, has created some value for this matchup. It's certainly not a bad situation as this will be the Eagles' fourth consecutive home game. Having to go on the road for two next weekend (UL Lafayette, UL Monroe), I'd say it's pretty imperative for the Eagles to take care of business here. Though they failed to cover against Troy, they did lead the entire second half, typically by more than what the oddsmakers were asking for. They did so despite going only 7 of 29 from three-point range. By the way, in five home games so far, the Eagles are averaging 90.8 points per game! South Alabama really let one get away on Saturday as they allowed Georgia State to score the game's final eight points en route to coming out on the losing end, 78-77. That result is a "bitter pill to swallow" and like I said earlier, will be difficult to get over. Of course, GSU won't be lacking for motivation here as LY's three losses to USA all came by six points or fewer. The Eagles shot poorly, as in below 37% overall, in all three games. This year's squad is much improved though and is 17-5 SU L22 Sun Belt home games. South Alabama has just two road wins thus far (lost at Stetson), one of them coming against a terrible Southern Miss team. Other than at Minnesota, Ga Southern really hasn't played a bad game this year as three of their six losses have been by three points or less. This is only their third game in the last 19 days (rested!) and I like how they defend the three-point line (opponents shooting only 30.3% against them at home). USA is shooting less than 30% from behind the arc for the year. 8* Georgia Southern |
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01-08-17 | Oakland v. Illinois-Chicago +9 | Top | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Illinois-Chicago (5:00 ET): This would be a classic letdown spot for favored Oakland, playing its second road game in three days and off an outright upset of fellow Horizon heavyweight Valparaiso. Make no mistake about; the Golden Grizzlies have been an incredibly successful money-maker at the betting window, covering over two-thirds of their games the L3 seasons, including the last four. But this is a pretty big number to be caught laying given the circumstances. UIC is playing its sixth straight home game and had no issue w/ Detroit on Friday, winning and covering that game 78-64 as seven-point favorites. Take the points. Oakland can now claim to be the Horizon League favorite due to the win at Valpo. The key was taking what was a four-point halftime lead and stretching it to 15 just 3:30 into the second half. From that point forward, Valpo never got closer than five. But the Golden Grizzlies are now dealing with the burden of having to win by a certain margin. Granted, they've eclipsed it three straight times, but playing the second time on the road in three days is tough regardless of who you are and what conference you play in. Yes, this team can score in bunches and is 24-9 ATS its L33 road games. But there's a juncture when we reach a "tipping point," and for Oakland today is that time. Will they really win a fourth straight league game by double digits? UIC has some "momentum" (hate that word!) after shooting a blistering 57.8% from the floor in the 78-64 win over Detroit. Will the Flames match that percentage here? Not likely, but they do lead all Horizon League teams w/ a 47.2 field goal percentage. Thus, I think they can keep pace w/ the high powered Golden Grizzlies. UIC's home split, in terms of points scored vs. allowed, is roughly the same as Oakland's on the road. Coming off a conference win, the Flames are 8-1 ATS the L3 seasons. While they've lost the last four regular season matchups to Oakland, the Flames did upset them in the 2015 Conference Tourney. I just think that this line is too high. 8* Illinois-Chicago |
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01-07-17 | Hawks v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 97-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I don't have a ton of respect for Atlanta right now, particularly in the road favorite role. That's even when matched up against one of the worst teams in the league as they are tonight. Earlier in the week, they did go to Orlando and blow out the Magic as short chalk. Then they followed that up w/ a win at New Orleans (as 2-pt dogs), 99-94. Overall, the Hawks have won four in a row, including a win over San Antonio (at home). So why don't I respect them that much? Well, a potential teardown has begun w/ the trade of Kyle Korver to Cleveland. Though the Hawks have a winning record (20-16 SU), they've been outscored this season and still sport a negative efficiency rating as well. Take the points here. Now Dallas is admittedly a lot worse off than Atlanta. The Mavs have definitely fallen on "hard times" w/ their 11-25 SU record, which includes an outright loss here at home to Phoenix two nights ago. That was a rare time that this team was favored. They also actually closed as the slightest (1-pt) of faves against Washington the game previous when they did win SU, 113-105 here in 'Big D.' Being favored by the amount they were against the Suns doesn't suit this team well, but thankfully no margin of victory is being required here. It's shocking that prior to the last two games, Dallas had been favored only ONE time previously all season! This is the Mavs' third straight home game while it is the Hawks' third straight road game (in four nights, no less). Therefore, situationally, things set up better for Dallas here. Something to take note of w/ the Mavs of late is that their offensive efficiency has been way up. There was a time they actually ranked last in the league in that department. But now, they are "up" to 23rd w/ the exact same rating as Atlanta. Some of that is due to Dirk Nowitzki being back. The Hawks average less than 100 PPG on the road this year and impending moves by the front office are likely to kill morale. 10* Dallas |
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01-07-17 | Raptors -2 v. Bulls | Top | 118-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Bulls have pulled off back to back minor upsets, but I won't give them much credit for beating Cleveland on Wednesday as both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were out. Prior to that win and one over Charlotte (at home), Chicago had gone just 2-5 straight up and 1-6 against the spread their previous seven games. Tonight, they host another Eastern Conference heavyweight, that being Toronto. Surprising to some is the fact the Raptors are tops in the conference in both YTD point differential and efficiency rating. I was absolutely shocked to learn that the Raptors are 0-8 SU and ATS vs. the Bulls the L2 seasons. That is absolutely not indicative of respective overall performance during that time. Toronto snaps this shocking losing streak tonight! Led by Kyle Lowry's 33 points and five assists, the Raptors beat a good Jazz team Thursday night, 101-93 as 5.5-point chalk. It was a nice bounce back for them after getting dismantled by San Antonio two nights earlier. Having played Golden State, San Antonio and Utah all in the L5 games, the Bulls represent a drop in class in terms of opponent for Toronto. It has been the offense that has carried the Raptors this year; only the Warriors rank higher in efficiency. They are third in the league in 3-point field goal percentage. They are averaging 110 PPG overall. Those kind of numbers are simply too much for a Bulls team that is simply average overall and is 19th in offensive efficiency. Two of the Bulls' four wins over the Raptors last year came by only two points (both in Toronto). Chicago's strong start to this season caught me by surprise, but predictably they've begun to regress. There are rumors that Jimmy Butler may be dealt and that HC Fred Hoiberg's job is not secure. I just don't like the way this team is presently constructed. Meanwhile, this will be perhaps the strongest Raptors team that has ever come to the Windy City. Only the Warriors and Spurs have a better win percentage in games decided by double digits compared to Toronto's 13-2 record. They are an Eastern Conference best 22-12 ATS overall this year and Chicago is 11-21 ATS off a SU dog win. 10* Toronto |
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01-07-17 | Pennsylvania v. Princeton -6.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Princeton (7:00 ET): Exams may be over with in the Ivy League, but for Penn, there's perhaps a greater challenge in front of them. That would be tonight's conference opener, which calls for a trip to league favorite Princeton. It's believed to be a "two-horse race" in the Ivy this year (Princeton and Yale), so pretty much disregard the fact that both of these schools come in riding three-game win streaks. I was a bit surprised to find that Penn has had plenty of ATS success at Princeton's expense through the years (25-12 ATS L37 meetings, including 15-4 on the road). Both of LY's matchups were decided by two points or less (Princeton won both). But I don't like the Quakers getting such a short number this time around. Princeton ended it's non-conference slate on New Year's Eve by destroying Cal Poly 81-52. (My goodness, the Big West is bad!). That was the Tigers' second blowout win in a row at home as they had handled Hampton 77-49 just three days earlier (allowed only 16 second half points!). Including those victories, they are now outscoring visiting teams by 27.8 points per game at home this year. It was the offense that carried Princeton against Cal Poly as they shot a ridiculous 56% from the field. Will they match that here? Probably not, but I don't think they have to. Not w/ a defense that has held those last two opponents to just 34.1 and 36.4% respectively. I don't see Penn having much offensive success in this game. Penn was able to beat Fairfield on 12.30 despite starting the game 0 for 11 from three-point range! Of course, it helped that Fairfield shot a miserable 33% for the entire game themselves. The Quakers trailed at the half that last game, but were really lucky that Fairfield was an absolutely atrocious 13 of 40 on two-point attempts. Really, the Quakers have consistently benefited from awful shooting from their opponents this season. That won't happen here. This should be a double digit spread. 10* Princeton |
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01-07-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -16 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Louisiana Tech (7:00 ET): Taking inventory of Conference USA, you can expect Louisiana Tech to finish at or near the top of the league this year while UT-San Antonio should reside at the bottom. There's a pretty sizable gap between the top and bottom of this large league, one that's not being accounted enough for by the linesmakers tonight in Ruston. La Tech enters this game having won five of six w/ their lone loss coming by a single point to Fla Gulf Coast (remember them?). Meanwhile, UTSA is off an awful loss to fellow C-USA lightweight Southern Miss (77-59 as 2-pt road chalk). That same Southern Miss team lost to La Tech by 24 at home the game previous. Lay the points here in what should be an absolute blowout. La Tech will be the top challenger to Middle Tennessee this year for league bragging rights. They don't play the Blue Raiders until the end of the month, so between now and then there's a chance to rack up a ton of victories. The Bulldogs' last four victories have all come by at least 20 points. They've dominated opponents here in Ruston, going 9-1 SU while winning by an average margin of 23.8 points per game. Again, that one loss came by a single point. Did I mention they'll be hosting a team that's 0-9 SU away from home and averaging only 62.4 PPG in such affairs? Oh, I hadn't? Well, that's the case. The average MOV in La Tech's 4-0 sweep of UTSA the L2 season has been 11.25 PPG. But the discrepancy between the two schools is as great as it's ever been right now. That winless record away from home didn't stop the oddsmakers from favoring UTSA at Southern Miss (who is admittedly terrible) on Thursday. I can't overstate what a bad loss that was for the Roadrunners, however. Southern Miss had lost its previous nine games and was down eight at halftime. But in the second half UTSA was outscored by 26! Now they have to face a team that is shooting 51% for the year at home and has held three straight opponents around 33% shooting overall! La Tech's 64-44 beatdown over UTEP is indicative of what to expect here, only the beatdown should be more severe. UTEP was held to just 19 second half points. 10* Louisiana Tech |
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01-07-17 | TCU v. West Virginia -13 | Top | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (1:00 ET): Not all 12-2 teams are "created equal" and that's certainly the case in this Big 12 matchup Saturday afternoon. West Virginia may have been stunned Tuesday night in Lubbock (lost 77-76 to Texas Tech), but that didn't change my view that they are one of the top teams in the country. They came into the week underrated by the pollsters (only 7th??) and should bounce back in a major way here in Morgantown. The hype will say TCU is "much improved" in 2017, but I still remember the Horned Frogs losing every Big 12 road game LY. They were 0-3 overall vs. WVU in 2015-16, including a 31-point loss in Morgantown. This will be only TCU's third "true" road game of this season. Lay the points. West Virginia's two losses this year have come by a combined five points. Tuesday's loss to Texas Tech, a back and forth affair the whole way, went to overtime. The issue was they allowed the Red Raiders to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 7 of 13 from three-point range. The trademark pressure we're accustomed to seeing from the Mountaineers also failed to produce the requisite number of turnovers (13). Plus, it didn't help that they went only 13 of 24 from the FT line in a one-point loss. A return to Morgantown would seem to be "just what the doctor ordered" though. They're 8-0 SU in home games so far, winning by an incredible margin of 39.1 points per game! Don't be worried about the number either as WVU is 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons laying 12.5 or more points here on their home floor. TCU is 0-9 SU (2-7 ATS) as WVU's conference rival including the three losses (by a combined 59 pts) last season. Clearly, HC Jamie Dixon was a great hire as is evident by him getting Jaylen Fisher (highest rated signee EVER for the program!) and completely turning over the roster in less than one year's time. But you have to be concerned about such a young team going into this environment. Not only have the Horned Frogs turned the ball over a total of 31 times the L2 games, this will clearly be the most hostile environment they've stumbled into yet. They've already lost at SMU by double digits. Granted, the only other loss was to Kansas (no shame there), but it is this game that shapes up as the young team's toughest to date. 8* West Virginia |
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01-06-17 | Kent State v. Ohio -7 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Ohio (9:00 ET): We have a Mid-American Conference matchup Friday night in Athens. Some may be "scratching their heads" over the fact that one team is a notable favorite over the other in a seemingly even matchup. But not I. The favorite here (Ohio) has lost only three times all season, two of those coming by four points or less. They are a dominant 8-0 SU here in Athens, winning by an average margin of 18.3 points per game. In comes a Kent team that comes off a "flashy" (pun intended!) 100-pt effort in its last game and an outright upset of Texas (on the road) before that. But let us not forget that this team also lost at Oregon State as well. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it will be a big deal to the faithful in Athens w/ the students having just returned from winter break. Lay the points. Ohio is in off a dominant performance on Tuesday as the blew out Western Michigan, 89-58 as 10-point home favorites. The Bobcats continued their sharp shooting from three-point range by going 16 of 31 from behind the arc. This was one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country LY (23rd) and they hold that same exact same rating nationally coming into tonight's contest. Defensively, they are much improved from a year ago and just held WMU to 33% shooting. For the season, they are allowing only 65.5 PPG (top 60) and are tops among MAC schools by holding opponents to just 39.6% shooting overall. Offensively, they are led by reigning MAC Player of the Year Antonio Campbell, but have three other double digit scorers as well. The Bobcats are 32-10 SU under third year HC Saul Phillips here at home. Kent, as I mentioned, scored 100 pts in its last game. That was due to them setting a MAC record by going 31 of 31 from the free throw line. They can't count on doing that again, especially on the road. It was free throws that took a game that was tied w/ just over 13 minutes to go and made it a comfortable win for the Golden Flashes. They lost LY here in Athens by 11, shooting only 38.6% from the floor. I would not expect shooting to improve much here as the team is last in the conference in FG% (42.3) and 11th from 3-pt range (31.9%). Kent also struggles defending the arc, letting opponents hit over 35%. For the second year in a row, I like Ohio to down their MAC East rival in Friday night home game on ESPNU. 8* Ohio |
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01-06-17 | Rockets -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:05 ET): While you do have to be leery about a potential letdown from a team off the kind of win the Rockets had last night over Oklahoma City, something I continue to harp on is the fact that NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back are consistently being undervalued. It's only natural for the linesmakers to shade lines accordingly, but more often that not, they are overreacting to the lack of rest. Case in point; last night's play on Charlotte over Detroit where the Hornets covered (and almost won SU). It's a little different here w/ Houston being favored, but the bottom line is that they are significantly better than Orlando and this line should be several points higher. In what was hyped as a tremendous individual battle between James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the former's team came out on top last night. Houston beat OKC 118-116, failing to cover as 8.5-pt chalk (Thunder were in the second game of a back to back, by the way), but the final was a bit misleading considering the Rockets led by 18 in the third quarter. Harden led the way w/ 26 points, fewer than Westbrook scored, but "The Beard" has the better supporting cast right now and it showed. Certainly, the Rockets' supporting cast should be able to outshine their Magic counterparts tonight. As expected, this offense has really taken off under HC Mike D'Antoni, averaging 114.6 points per game (second most) and ranking third in efficiency. Only the Warriors are ahead of them in both categories. This has also been a profitable team to bet on this year as they rank #1 in the league at the betting window w/ a 24-13 ATS record. That includes 14-5 on the road and 14-3 against teams w/ losing records. They are a perfect 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) in the second game of a back to back. Orlando, meanwhile, is off somewhat ugly 19-point home loss to Atlanta on Wednesday. They were close for basically three quarters, but they could not stop the Hawks from making baskets late. They allowed 54.3% shooting for the game and 33 fourth quarter points. Those kind of numbers are bad news when facing this kind of offense. It's especially concerning that the Magic are allowing teams to shoot 37.2% from three-point range here at home this season. The Rockets should have no problem exploiting that. On offense, the Magic simply don't score enough (97.1 PPG at home) to keep pace here. 10* Houston |
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01-05-17 | Hornets +4 v. Pistons | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The belief that teams will suffer in the second game of a back to back more often that not leads to them being undervalued and it certainly appears as if that's the case tonight w/ the Hornets. Granted, you do have to be a bit leery on how a team will respond off a big win like the one Charlotte had last night (at home) vs. Oklahoma City. But I see no reason why this team should be an underdog against a Detroit side that is on the verge of implosion, even out on the road. Even after factoring in home court advantage, the Pistons are clearly not the better team here and given their recent struggles (which I know all too well!), it's difficult to endorse them at all right now. Take the points. The Pistons have lost 8 of 10 overall following a 121-116 defeat at the hands of Indiana Tuesday night. That loss took place here at The Palace and saw team defense be virtually non-existent as they allowed 36 first quarter points. From there, Indiana went onto shoot 58.1% for the game including 9 of 16 from three-point range. It also didn't help that - at home - Detroit faced a -18 disadvantage in FT attempts. At this point, I have to wonder if the team is tuning out HC Stan Van Gundy. I like SVG a lot, but his act his worn thin at every stop in his career. In this 2-8 SU stretch, one of the team's wins was a fortunate spot against Cleveland (playing w/o LeBron) the day after X-Mas. Overall, the defensive numbers still look good, but they've given up 119 or more points three times in the last six games. Charlotte just scored 123 last night on a good Oklahoma City defense and is averaging over 110 PPG over their last five contests. In other words, this hardly sounds like an ideal matchup for the slumping Pistons. These teams did split a pair of games in Charlotte earlier this season. But I think what most fail to realize is how respected this Hornets team traditionally is by the marketplace. They've only been an underdog in six of their 36 games! They will be a top five team (at worst) in the East by season's end. They're definitely the better team here and if they don't win outright, it will be loss by a smaller margin than what the line is calling for. 8* Charlotte |
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01-05-17 | James Madison v. Hofstra -7.5 | 62-54 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Hofstra has played an incredible amount of close games so far, in fact, six have been decided by four points or less. That includes the last two times we've seen them. Saturday at Delaware, they came out on the winning end, 58-56, thanks to a couple of made free throws in the final minute. That was not a pretty offensive game from either side, but Hofstra still led most of the way. There was a ton more offense Monday night when they hosted William & Mary and the game went into overtime. Unfortunately for the Pride, the Tribe hit a buzzer-beater in overtime (from NBA 3-pt range) to win there, 95-93. It was just the second loss in six home games for Hofstra thus far. Despite the heartbreaking loss earlier in the week, I see Hofstra responding w/ a big win tonight. As alluded to earlier, the team will not be lacking for motivation. They have lost four straight regular season meetings to James Madison, but did beat them in the 2015 CAA Tournament. Both of last year's games went into overtime. This is probably the weakest team JMU has brought to Hempstead in some time as the Dukes are just 4-11 SU, including 2-7 ATS as an underdog, 1-5 on the road. This will be their first road game since a double digit loss on December 17th at Appalachian State. They'll have to deal w/ a Hofstra team averaging 85.2 PPG at home this year. So far in CAA play, we've seen JMU shoot better than 55% against Drexel and hold Towson to 32% shooting. I seriously doubt that they'll be so fortunate to hit either of those percentages tonight being that this is a roadie. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra |
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01-05-17 | East Tennessee State v. The Citadel +13.5 | Top | 115-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* The Citadel (7:00 ET): Let's not kid ourselves. The Citadel is not a very good basketball team. But the Bulldogs have enough going for them right now (off an outright win!) and getting enough points to make this Southern Conference matchup w/ East Tenn State more interesting than expected. Remember, I'm off a big win in the SoCon earlier in the week as UNC Greensboro upset league favorite Chattanooga. While The Citadel is more than likely to end up finishing at the bottom of the league by season's end, they've already proven they can hang by going 3-0 ATS against conference opponents thus far. That includes an upset of Wofford (as 15-point dogs), on the road, their last time out. Take the points here. East Tennessee State is considered by many to be the second best team in the SoCon. However, the Buccaneers have played only one conference foe to date and that was VMI, the weakest of the lot. Predictably, that one went quite well for them as they romped to a 102-75 victory. We can probably expect a ton of points in this game (more on that in a moment), so the question remains: can ETSU score enough to cover this large of a spread? I think not, at least out on the road. Averaging 80.6 PPG is impressive, but as you're about to see, that likely won't be nearly enough to get the job done here. This team has only one double digit scorer (TJ Cromer) and another player (Julian Walters) just left the program last week. The Citadel both averages and allows 100+ PPG. I'm not making this up. They play at - by far - the fastest tempo of any team in the country. While just 8-8 SU overall, they are 6-2 SU at home. Now the upset of Wofford did require OT, but it was a game they led by nine at halftime and by seven in the extra period. As an underdog this season, the Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS. They have double revenge from LY as well and in one of the losses to ETSU (at home!), they shot only 27.9% from the floor and scored just 51 points, easily a season-low. I'm sure the players remember that one. This year's group has made at least 10 three-pointers in 14 of 16 games and 15+ seven different times. They've had seven games w/ multiple 20+ pt scorers. ETSU is just 2-2 SU this year away from Johnson City. 10* The Citadel |
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01-04-17 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Washington State | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (11:00 ET): The Pac 12 is a fairly "top-heavy" league this year w/ UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and even Cal likely to "duke it out" for the top spot. But after that, the prognosis looks rather bleak for the rest of the lot, including a USC team that has just one loss. Clearly, the two worst teams in the conference are Oregon State and Washington State, who will matchup tonight in The Palouse. While this has been an incredibly miserable season thus far for OSU, one that has seen them lose their best player (Tres Tinkle) for an indefinite period of time, I still have them rated slightly above Wazzu. Thus, even after factoring in the home court advantage, this looks like a really solid value to me. Take the points. Washington State comes in off a big upset over rival Washington, 79-74, as 12.5-pt underdogs in Seattle. That snapped a 17-game Pac 12 losing streak as they closed the game on a stunning 12-3 run after trailing almost the whole way. With a far more appealing home date looming against Oregon on Saturday (one of those aforementioned conference heavyweights), tonight's game all of a sudden shapes up to me a pretty classic 'sandwich spot.' Yes, the Cougs have triple revenge from the last two years, including a 69-49 loss in Corvallis LY in what was the teams' only meeting. But it's hard to endorse WSU as chalk seeing as the role finds them at just 1-5 ATS. That even includes a non-cover here at home against Sacramento State on 12.21. The team is on its longest win streak of the season (three games), but all three wins were by eight points or less. Meanwhile, it has not been an ideal start to Pac 12 play for Oregon State. They drew a couple of tough assignments last week, playing both USC and UCLA. Still, they covered both and actually come into tonight riding a 3-game ATS win streak. That includes an upset of a Kent State team that just went to Texas and won. As far as "true" road games go, the Beavers may be winless, but this is still quite the generous number. Note that OSU's matchup zone defense forced UCLA into its worst shooting night of the season (44.1%). The game was actually tied in the second half. Certainly then, the Beavers can keep Wazzu in check, right? 10* Oregon State |
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01-04-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Nebraska-Omaha +4 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
8* Nebraska-Omaha (8:00 ET): We head to the Summit League for this play where the conference favorite (Ft. Wayne) is laying points on the road. IPFW was one of the top ATS teams in the country last year, going 21-8 at the betting window. In fact, no other team in the country that played at least seven lined games covered at a better rate! This year, predictably, has seen the oddsmakers get some of their money back. IPFW (Ft. Wayne) is just 5-5 ATS, though they do hold an outright win at Indiana. I played against them (successfully) early in the year when they went to Illinois State (as 6.5-pt underdogs) and lost 75-57. That brings me to my main point, which is that the Mastadons are only 1-4 ATS this season away from home (one win was Indiana), thus I don't like them as road chalk. That 42-22 overall ATS record the L3 seasons is due to regress. Take the points. Nebraska-Omaha happens to be leaving its (likely few) backers pretty broke. The Mavericks are returning home from an 0-3 SU/ATS road trip and last covered a game all the way back on December 3rd, at Iowa. That's an 0-6 ATS mark L6 lined games, if you're keeping score, though they did win SU three times during that span including both home games. This will only be the FIFTH home game this year for the team. Though already 0-2 in Summit League play, this will be the first conference home game. They have a bit of revenge on their minds from LY when they suffered two painful losses at the hands of IPFW, the first coming here in overtime, 106-101 as 8.5-pt chalk. The rematch was another high-scoring affair, 94-90, w/ FT shooting being the difference. Ft. Wayne has been a road favorite two times before this season and both times they failed to cover. The first was at Austin Peay and the second was at Detroit. This team's main problem when favored is they simply give up too many points. They are allowing 85.5 PPG away from home. You simply can't always outscore teams. The Mastadons found that out in the Summit League opener when they lost outright to a bad Western Illinois team 93-91 as 14.5-pt faves at home. They bounced back w/ a 102-91 win over Oral Roberts on New Year's Eve, but that's still 90 PPG allowed over the L3 contests! Back home, Omaha should shoot the ball better than they have the L2 games and an upset is likely. 8* Nebraska-Omaha |
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01-04-17 | Hawks v. Magic +3.5 | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these teams enter in off upset victories. At home, Atlanta stunned San Antonio, 114-112 as five-point underdogs. That was just the fourth loss for the Spurs in their last 27 games. The upset not only required overtime after a last-second three to tie at the end of regulation, but also a season-best 32 points from Paul Milsap and a career-best tying 29 points from Tim Hardaway Jr. It will certainly be difficult to duplicate those numbers again here in Orlando. The Magic just went to New York and beat the overrated Knicks, 115-103 as 3.5-pt dogs. While the Hawks are on a three-game win streak, the Magic are also a respectable 3-2 SU their last five games. Orlando has won each of the L3 times they've played Atlanta, including a 131-120 road win last month. Take the points. The Hawks started the season out quite well, but have fallen off a cliff ever since. Now there are rumors that Milsap might be dealt, which would amount to essentially "waving the white flag" on the season. The team is still in playoff contention due to the East being so weak, but this is not a team capable of winning a 1st round playoff series. Offensive efficiency has been a problem as the team ranks only 23rd in that department. Recent performances have been better, but note that the entirety of the three-game win streak came at home. Now they're on the road where they're only 8-9 SU and averaging less than 100 PPG. Coming off a SU win as a dog this season, the team's record is just 1-4 SU and ATS. Orlando won't be going to the playoffs this year, but there are some nice young pieces. Chief among them is PG Elfrid Peyton, who had the best game of his career last month against the Hawks. There, he went for 29 points and 14 assists. He'll need to play well, not necessarily that well, for the Magic to beat the Hawks for a fourth straight time. My numbers don't like the idea of Atlanta laying more than one point in this spot, thus I'll side w/ the value as the Hawks have to prove it to me on the road. They are also just 1-6 ATS in division games so far this season. 8* Orlando |
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01-03-17 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (9:15 ET): I'm going to keep rolling w/ Bob Huggins' Mountaineers, who just might be the best team in the country right now. I had them on Friday when they went to Stillwater and dismantled Oklahoma State 92-75 as a short road favorite. I also took them the previous Friday as they rolled past an overmatched Northern Kentucky side, 92-61 as 26-pt chalk. For a second straight time, we find the team on the road and laying a short number against a Big 12 opponent they have dominated of late. Once again, the number is simply not high enough as Texas Tech's 11-2 SU record is nowhere close to as impressive as WVU's 12-1 SU mark. Kansas entered the year as the favorite and Baylor is still unbeaten. But the Mountaineers just might be the best team in the Big 12, if not the country. I've run through the exploits of this WVU team before, but allow me to do it again. HC Huggins can go as many as 13 deep w/ this roster. The pressure defense that he employs will continue to be among the best at forcing turnovers nationally. They forced 19 TO's at Oklahoma State and pretty much led that game by double digits throughout. Like OSU, the Mounties have had Texas Tech's number in the past, going 4-0 SU/ATS against them since joining the Big 12. It was close here in Lubbock LY, but then it was a 90-68 beatdown in Morgantown. Again, I'm not worried about this team going on the road as they've already won at Virginia, 66-57. The latest polls have WVU at #7. That's just too low. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is nowhere near as good as its record. Prior to Friday, they had lost only one time, which was by two to Auburn. But they blew a double-digit second half lead at Iowa State and ended up falling 63-56, not even covering the 4.5-point spot. That will be a difficult defeat to get over. Also difficult for the Red Raiders will be handling the Mountaineers' press. Against Iowa State, Tech turned the ball over 15 times, which is an ominous sign for tonight's matchup. Unlike WVU, Tech really didn't challenge itself during the non-conference portion of the schedule. What's their "best" win? It certainly won't be WVU after tonight. 10* West Virginia |
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01-03-17 | Texas A&M v. Kentucky -14.5 | 58-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
8* Kentucky (9:00 ET): To me, the best team in the country is either Kentucky or West Virginia. Yes, UK has already lost twice. But those losses both came against top teams: UCLA (home) and Louisville (away). They were by a combined eight points. So what I'm saying is that there's no shame in the fact they've already tasted defeat twice. They've also beaten North Carolina at a neutral setting, remember. Coach Cal and company are also off an impressive drubbing of Ole Miss, in Oxford, last week. They won that game 99-76 as 11-point chalk and I'm envisioning a somewhat similar result tonight in Lexington. Lay the points. Texas A&M arrives in Bluegrass country off a very disappointing result as they lost at home to Tennessee their last time out. They were 9.5-point favorites in the 73-63 loss last Thursday. It was actually the second straight lined affair that the Aggies lost outright. On December 17th, on a neutral floor, they lost 67-63 to Arizona. So this is a clearly a team the oddsmakers have had overvalued. There was also an early season loss (as six-point favorites) at home to USC. Their only other loss was on a neutral floor to UCLA. No shame w/ that result, but I still feel the oddsmakers are being too kind for what will certainly be the Aggies' toughest SEC game of the year. These teams did play three tight games last year (two won by UK), but that was a better A&M team as well. Tonight actually marks the 1st time that Kentucky has gotten to play at Rupp Arena since December 7th. Credit Coach Cal for scheduling a pretty tough non-conference slate. At home so far, the Wildcats are 6-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 23.8 points per game. Offensively, UK has few peers as they are third in efficiency and average a whopping 93.5 points per game. That's simply way too much firepower for a Texas A&M side (74.7 PPG) to compete against. The Aggies haven't been blown out yet, but this will also likely be their most difficult assignment of the season. The fact they shot less than 35% from the floor against Tennessee last Thursday does not bode well for them at all. 8* Kentucky |
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01-03-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -4 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons started 2017 w/ a much needed win. It was not easy though. They trailed Miami - by eight - at halftime before storming back in the second half for a 107-98 win and cover. The fact that the Heat were short-handed on New Year's Day probably should temper any enthusiasm surrounding that victory, but considering how SVG's team ended 2016, they'll take it. With only two wins in the last nine games, the other coming against the LeBron-less Cavs the day after X-Mas, Detroit is actually in last place in the Central Division and outside the top eight in the East. But they're one of only seven teams in the Conference to have outscored opponents this season and the home court will be a big advantage tonight. Lay the points. Indiana arrives in the Motor City having won B2B games. But the wins over Chicago and Orlando both took place at home. They'd lost four in a row previously and were 1-7 ATS over an eight-game stretch. The road has been unkind to the Pacers this season as they are just 4-13 SU and ATS outside of the Hoosier State. Getting points has been of little benefit to this team as well as they're just 5-11 SU/ATS in the underdog role. They're also 4-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Coming off a double digit win this year, they're 3-6 ATS. Let me be clear here - Indiana may have a better record than Detroit, but they are not the better team! I make that last statement knowing full well that the Pacers have won the last three head to head meetings, including one right here in Detroit a little over two weeks ago. As 4.5-point dogs (rare cover in that role!), Indiana came in and won 105-90 as the Pistons had an awful shooting night (38.1 FG%). Perhaps that had something to do w/ Detroit being in the second game of a back to back (lost at Washington the previous night). Whatever the reason was there, I expect better results here. The Pistons are a staunch defensive team, giving up only 95.2 points per game at home. I've still got faith in SVG and think he'll continue to turn this thing around. 10* Detroit |
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01-02-17 | Suns v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Though potentially undermanned (we know they'll be w/o Blake Griffin), I still think that the Clippers will have enough horses to get by the woeful Suns. Phoenix has actually covered B2B games, winning one of them, a surprising upset of Toronto as 8.5-pt underdogs. But that game was also at home and the Raptors were in the second night of a back to back after playing the Warriors. On the road, the Suns are just 4-15 SU and giving up a rather unsightly 114.7 points per game. They did manage to stay within the number at Utah Saturday night, which I did not like (had the Jazz), despite scoring only 86 points. The Clips will be desperate to snap a six-game slide here though and I'll lay the points. Chris Paul is listed as questionable for tonight due to his ongoing hamstring issue. DeAndre Jordan is probable despite a hip injury. Whether both, one or neither plays, this selection remains valid. I realize that the Clippers have lost to Dallas, the Lakers, Denver and New Orleans during this six-game losing streak of theirs. But this matchup certainly offers a reprieve after playing at Oklahoma City and Houston. The Rockets torched their once mighty defense for 140 points on Friday and then a night later the Thunder scored 114. But winning a shootout here is likely given the Suns' own defensive ineptitude. Phoenix has allowed only 91 pts in B2B games, the primary reason they're 2-0 ATS in those games, but note that previously they had allowed fewer than 100 points only three times ALL SEASON! The upcoming schedule should permit a Clippers' turnaround as they'll be playing all games in the state of California the next three weeks. Remember, there was a time when the Clips were playing better than every other team in the league. Given the potential personnel differences, it's likely worthless to cite LA's 116-98 win over Phoenix early in the season here at Staples Center. But they have won the last five home games against the Suns. HC Doc Rivers should be able to create a sense of urgency here and whomever he has in the lineup, should respond in kind. The Suns are just not a very good team. 8* LA Clippers |
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01-02-17 | Chattanooga v. NC-Greensboro +5.5 | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
8* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): We go to the Southern Conference (5th oldest in the country!) for tonight's College Hoops play and we find a home dog with plenty of value. Yes, Chattanooga is the favorite to once again win this league and is rated among the top 100 nationally. But the Mocs will encounter a worthy challenger tonight in Greensboro. Making matters for difficult for the favorite is that it's their second road game in three days. UNC Greensboro will certainly not be lacking for motivation here as they are looking to bounce back from a surprise loss (here at home) to Samford on Saturday. Like Chattanooga, two of the Spartans losses came against major conference teams. They've lost only four times overall and I love the spot. Take the points. Chattanooga's season got off to an impressive start as they went to Tennessee and won 82-69 as 3.5 point dogs. Then came a 40-point loss at North Carolina. But since then, the Mocs have gone 10-2 w/ both losses coming by six points or less. One of those losses was at Vanderbilt (by two). They've covered all but one of their last six games and are off B2B double digit wins, including 64-48 at Western Carolina in the SoCon opener. So why the fade here? Well, for starters, UNC Greensboro isn't likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Western Carolina did Saturday. The Catamounts were an awful 34 percent overall from the floor, including 2 of 10 from three-point range. UNC Greensboro has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, but they had lost three in row straight up to Chattanooga before pulling a big upset LY as 12.5-pt road dogs. Their impressive 79-64 win last February marked the third consecutive time the road team has won in this rivalry. It was one of just THREE SoCon losses for the Mocs last year. Chattanooga has won it's last two visits to Greensboro Coliseum, but this is a much better Spartans team now. Yes, UNCG has failed to cover three in row, including a pair of double digit losses. But prior to that, their only two losses had both been by six points or less. I'm impressed w/ the team's defense (just 63.4 PPG allowed at home) and they should shoot a lot better here than they did in the loss to Samford (37.9%), which was a surprisingly poor performance (looking ahead?). They'll bounce back here. 8* UNC Greensboro |
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01-01-17 | Arizona State v. California -9 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
8* California (10:00 ET): For Arizona State, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot that all Pac 12 teams will face at one time or another during the course of the conference schedule. Considering the Sun Devils just pulled off an upset at Palo Alto, beating Stanford 98-93 as 6.5-pt dogs on Friday, a letdown is all but inevitable tonight in Berkeley. Conversely for Cal, this is a chance to atone for an outright loss to Arizona (were 2.5-pt favorites) on Friday (also a five-point game). The Bears have actually now lost two in a row at home, but considering who the losses were to (Virginia & Arizona) and the fact they were close, I am unconcerned. Prior to the B2B losses, Cal had won 27 in a row at Haas Pavilion. I'll lay the points w/ them here. Though Cal has a poor ATS record overall this season (4-9), I'm proud to say that I was on them in two of the wins and covers. The first was an 86-61 rout of Cal Davis. The second came a week later and also a lopsided result, 81-55 over Cal Poly. There is no shame in losing to Virginia and Arizona, two of the best teams in the country, by a combined nine points even at home. They played both tough. Against Virginia, it was a tie game (22-22) at the break and they never trailed by more than five in the second half. As most opponents do, the Bears struggled to shoot the ball against the Cavaliers. The Arizona loss was more disappointing as they led by 13 at one point before wilting late. Again, poor shooting was the culprit. But after shooting 36% from the floor in B2B games, I look for the offense to bounce back here against an ASU team that is giving up 82.5 PPG on 46.7% shooting. The Sun Devils are just 3-11 ATS when off a conference win the last two seasons, so there's a history of failing in this situation. In the case of their 98-93 win at Stanford on Friday, they got a career-high 30 points from Torian Graham and a season-high 25 points from Tra Holder. That won't be duplicated here, nor will the massive shooting discrepancy they held over the Cardinal from behind the three-point line (54% to 33%). I've gone over the talent on this Cal roster previously and I like this team quite a bit. I have them rated 4th in the Pac 12 (behind UCLA, Arizona and Oregon) while ASU is third worst. The Bears are the top defensive team in the league (only 59.9 PPG allowed) and have Ivan Raab, who is coming off yet ANOTHER double-double (16 pts, 16 rebounds). 8* California |
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12-31-16 | Suns v. Jazz -11 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:05 ET): It's taken visits from the Lakers and Philadelphia, but the Jazz seem to be back on track. Of course, it also helps that this favorable scheduling stretch has coincided with the team getting healthier. Clearly, the schedule makers intended on the Jazz ending their 2016 on a positive note because tonight brings a visit from another lowly opponent, Phoenix. What I really like about this play is that the Suns are actually off a SU win, a real shocker no less, as they upset Toronto (as 8.5-pt home dogs) on Thursday. That puts them in a less than favorable spot as they're 1-7 ATS this season when off an outright win as a dog. Lay the points. It was a favorable spot when Phoenix hosted Toronto Thursday. That's because the Raptors were in the second game of a back to back and had just played the Warriors tough the previous night. It marked just the fourth time all season that the Suns held an opponent below 100 points. But don't let one upset fool you; the Suns are not a good team. That was just their fourth win in December and two of the other three came at the expense of Philly and the Lakers (sound familiar?). The other win came by two, at home, against the overrated Knicks. On the road this year, the team is 4-14 SU while giving up a hiedous 116.1 points per game. They have just one road win since Thanksgiving! Defensively, these teams are miles apart. While Phoenix is giving up the most points per game, Utah is at the opposite end of the spectrum. They allow the fewest number of points per game in the league at 95.0! As mentioned earlier, they are (finally) starting to get healthy as PG George Hill is back. These teams met earlier this month and Utah led the entire way. The final score of 112-105 is a bit misleading at Utah led by as many as 23 before letting Phoenix come back. I can't see the Suns being too "defensive-minded" here on New Year's Eve, thus this has all the makings of a blowout. 8* Utah |
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12-31-16 | NC State v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (4:30 ET): While it's been a really good start to the season for "The U," success has not translated to the betting window. The 'Canes are just 2-8 ATS despite being 10-2 straight up. Their last seven lined contests have all resulted in ATS failures, but that comes w/ a caveat as they've been asked to lay 14 or more points in each of the last five. Note that a good portion of those ATS results came down to the wire with three decided by three points or less. So it's not as if they're falling well short of the oddsmakers' expectations. This is still a very good team and for the ACC opener, I do believe they're being undervalued. They'll host a NC State team that has played only one "true" road game to date and that resulted in a double digit loss at Illinois. Eight of Miami's 10 wins this year have come by double digits. None have been by fewer than eight points. The two losses came at neutral settings against good teams (Iowa State and Florida), both of whom are worthy of the Top 20 in my estimation. NC State is outside the Top 50. The Hurricanes remain on the fringes of the top 25 ("others receiving votes") and have an average margin of victory 21.1 PPG here in Coral Gables. That's after only beating Columbia by 11 on Wednesday (as 23-pt favorites), which stands as one of their biggest misses from the oddsmakers' call. Turnovers (20) were the primary issue there, but they'll come down that from season-high number of miscues here. It should also be noted Columbia was coming off nearly three full weeks of rest. NC State didn't challenge itself much during the non-conference portion of the schedule, save for a loss to Creighton where they got blown out. Their last six games all took place in Raleigh against non Power 5 foes. Unlike Miami, the Wolfpack have experienced success at the betting window as they are 4-0 ATS here in December. But Tennessee State, Appalachian State, Fairfield and Rider are hardly an impressive slate of opponents. None of NC State's last five opponents have shot better than 38% from the floor, which I credit more to inferior opposition than the Wolfpack's defense. This team has three wins by four points or less so far, all against pretty weak competition (Ga Southern, Loyola-IL and Bradley). Lay the points. 10* Miami FL |
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12-30-16 | Pistons +3.5 v. Hawks | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I have long been a fan of HC Stan Van Gundy, but it appears as if his act may be rapidly wearing thin in the Motor City where the Pistons have not been playing well of late - at all. SVG's team has just one win in its last seven games and it came against Cleveland w/o LeBron. I was on Detroit there, but also then faded them on Wednesday when they were humiliated at home, losing 119-94 to Milwaukee as 3.5-point chalk. The Pistons' only other cover over the L7 games - besides Cleveland - was against Golden State, another fortunate spot as the Warriors were playing the second of B2B road games and in a massive lookahead to the X-Mas Day game against the Cavaliers. Is there any hope for the Pistons right now? Yes, I think there is. Read on. As poorly as Detroit has played of late (five of last six losses by double digits), tonight's opponent (Atlanta) has been just as bad. The Hawks did win Wednesday night - in OT - but failed to cover at home against the Knicks. It was just their seventh win in the L20 games and they're 6-14 ATS during that stretch as well. This team has fallen off dramatically since a relatively hot start to the season. What's the issue been? Well, they've fallen down to 24th in offensive efficiency. They've also allowed 105 PPG on 46.5% shooting the L5 games. These teams have already matched up once this season, here in Atlanta, and it was all Pistons in a 121-85 win as 1.5-pt dogs. Not sure Detroit should be a larger underdog this go around, especially considering the road team has won four of the last five head to head meetings outright. Looking at the respective lineups, there are some interesting takeaways. Atlanta basically used only six players in the OT win over the Knicks w/ four logging 40+ minutes. Outside of the top six in the rotation, HC Mike Budenholzer got only 12 pts from the rest of the team and Tim Hardaway Jr was particularly brutal, going 0 for 7 from the field. Meanwhile, SVG has been tinkering w/ his lineup and the move to bring Tobias Harris off the bench certainly seems to be working. Another reason I like the Pistons to bounce back here is the fact they are 25-10 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8* Detroit |
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12-30-16 | La Salle v. Dayton -9 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
10* Dayton (6:00 ET): This is the Atlantic 10 opener for both Dayton and LaSalle, the former coming in as the favorite to bag the regular season conference crown. The Flyers finished in a three-way tie atop the A-10 standings last year, along w/ St. Bonaventure and VCU. They are by no means a decided favorite to win the league in 2017, but they certainly are a "cut above" this evening's opponent, LaSalle. The Explorers finished in the A-10 basement last season at 4-14 SU in conference play and 9-22 SU overall. They already have six wins this year and played #1 Villanova relatively tough at a neutral setting. But that was still a double digit loss and this will be too. Dayton won't take this game lightly as they actually lost at LaSalle (as 11.5-pt favorites) last season. Lay the points. Considering Dayton was a 20-pt favorite when they hosted LaSalle last year, this seems like a really good value. The Explorers have lost 13 of their 14 all-time visits here. There was a bit of a concern over whether or not Flyers' leading scorer Charles Cooke (19.2 PPG) would play here due to a wrist injury, but HC Archie Miller has said "he's a go." He missed last week's game vs. VMI, but it hardly mattered as seven Flyers' scored in double figures en route to an easy 92-56 win. This team is shooting the ball preposterously well so far and against VMI they were better than 60% from the floor, including 55.6% from three-point range. Defensively, they are significantly stronger than LaSalle, which will ultimately be the difference here. It's not just that Dayton is better than LaSalle defensively, it's that the Explorers are pretty awful defensively. Actually, that's putting it mildly: they are one of the worst defensive teams in the entire country. Currently, they are allowing 83.2 points per game, which is 338th out of 351 teams. They are 349th when it comes to defending the three-point line at 43.1%. Considering what we just saw from Dayton in the last game, not to mention all season, LaSalle is going to give up a ton of points here. I've already played against the Explorers once this year and they lost 93-78 at Georgetown. Since then, they've won a pair of games decided by four points or less, over Fla Gulf Coast and Mercer. That game against Mercer, their first outside of Philly this year, went to triple overtime and actually saw them score their fewest pts in regulation to date. This shapes up as a total mismatch. 10* Dayton |
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12-30-16 | West Virginia -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): West Virginia has won and covered all four meetings w/ Oklahoma State the L2 seasons and is the always tenuous short road favorite this afternoon in Stillwater, the first Big 12 game for both. Typically, such a scenario would have me leaning the other way, but I simply have way too much regard for the Mountaineers and cannot for the life of me understand why this line isn't higher. Also, how is WVU only 11th in the polls? I have them rated as one of the five best teams in the country (at least!). Maybe it's because Oklahoma State now has Brad Underwood running things on the bench that this line is so low. Underwood, of course, previous served as HC at Stephen F Austin, who upset WVU in LY's NCAA Tournament. But that fact won't be lost on Bob Huggins and these Mountaineers players, who are out for revenge. I took West Virginia exactly one week ago in their last game. They actually only led Northern Kentucky by seven at the half (this was in Morgantown), but put the clamps down late and pulled away, outscoring the Norse by 24 over the final 20 minutes. As discussed in LW's analysis, WVU is a very deep squad - sometimes going as deep as 13 players - and is also #1 in the country in forcing turnovers. They are top four nationally in defensive efficiency and top 14 in offensive efficiency. Six of their last seven wins have been by at least 27 pts. Sure, you might make the argument that this is a "true" road game, just their second of the season to date. Well, in their first they went to Virginia and won 66-57 as eight-point dogs, the lone non-27+ pt win over the L7 games, yet perhaps the most impressive victory of the bunch. Oklahoma State had to hire Underwood because the program had fallen on hard times under predecessor Travis Ford. The Cowboys went just 12-20 SU last season, so clearly they have a long way to go. They're already 10-2 SU for Underwood, but a 107-75 loss vs. North Carolina earlier in the year tells me they are nowhere near ready for an opponent of this caliber. Underwood is trying to build his team the same way Huggins has his, and in the same vein as we saw at SFA. But the problem here is that WVU is simply much better in all facets of the game right now. 10* West Virginia |
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12-29-16 | North Dakota v. Portland State +1.5 | Top | 62-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Officially, Portland State hails from Big Sky country. However, the Vikings may want to petition to join the West Coast Conference. That's because already we've seen them pull off three outright wins over WCC foes, all on the road and all as underdogs of 8.5 pts or more. For the record, the three teams that they beat were: Pepperdine, San Francisco and Portland. Maybe PSU is the team that could finally unseat Gonzaga? In all seriousness, the Vikings appear to primed and ready to roll in tonight's conference opener vs. a North Dakota side that has dropped three in a row. These two are expected to be the top challengers to Weber State in the Big Sky, so a win would go a long way. I expect the home team to get the job done. Portland State has won all four of its home games, by an average 33.8 points per game, though I should point out that none of those games were lined. (All four opponents were non-D1). The most recent visits came from Walla Walla exactly one week ago and that resulted in a 118-59 victory. But prior to that were the upsets of San Francisco and Portland. Against the latter, they impressively controlled the game most of the way, even leading by double digits at the half. With the exception of two games this year - losses at Arizona State and Loyola Marymount (another WCC team), the Vikings have scored a minimum of 77 pts every time out. Among all Big Sky teams, this one was tops offensively and record-wise through the non-conf slate. North Dakota is 0-3 ATS head to head w/ PSU the L2 seasons, though they did win SU (by three) in LY's lone meeting (were -4 at home). Because Portland State was initially pegged so low in the Big Sky this season, we are still able to grab some nice value in this spot. As mentioned above, North Dakota did not finish its non-conference schedule well, though a double digit loss at Iowa was to be expected. They've been off for seven full days, which could actually work against them (rest vs. rust?). In the end, all we are looking at here is a team winning SU on its home court. I don't think that's too much to ask in this matchup. 8* Portland State |
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12-28-16 | Iowa v. Purdue -12 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Purdue (8:30 ET): The Big 10 Conference enjoyed a renaissance on the football field this year, challenging the all-mighty SEC as the best in the land. However, somewhat quietly, the level of play we've seen in Big 10 basketball has ironically faded at the same time. During the Big 10's time as arguably the strongest league nationally, Iowa was a program that never really lived up to the hype. The Hawkeyes certainly aren't as strong now as they've been in past years, thus I shudder to think what the reaction will be from the always temperamental HC Fran McCaffery here as his team faces what I have ranked as the standard-bearer for Big 10 basketball in 2016, Purdue. I look for the Boilermakers to roll tonight in West Lafayette. Lay the points. Really, one could make case that any one of three teams could win the Big 10 this year. Iowa is not among that group. Purdue is, along w/ Wisconsin and Indiana. But as stated earlier, I currently have the Boilermakers rated as the best of the lot. They finished the non-conference slate at 11-2 SU w/ a 46-pt rout of Norfolk State seven days ago. Their only losses so far have come to Villanova and Louisville, who are a combined 23-1 straight up. The loss to 'Nova did come here in West Lafayette, but otherwise they're 7-0 SU at home and still outscoring visitors by a whopping 24.5 points per game. Since losing at Louisville on 11.30, Matt Painter's team has covered all five of its lined games, including an impressive 86-81 win over Notre Dame. Every other win has come by at least 24 points. This is a loaded roster, which contains the Big 10's leading scorer (Peter Jok at 22.6 PPG) and Caleb Swanigan, who just went for 32 points and 20 rebounds in the last game. Making this play all the more appetizing is that it's a double revenge spot for Purdue as they lost both meetings last season. In the game here at home, they blew a 17-point halftime lead and somehow lost despite holding the Hawkeyes to just 20 first half points. This year, Iowa is not as strong as they've already lost five times, including a game to Nebraska-Omaha. The Hawkeyes have played just one "true" road game thus far and lost it (by double digits) to the same Notre Dame team that Purdue just beat. Including neutral site games, Iowa is just 1-3 away from Iowa City. They, like Purdue, come in with plenty of rest, but the problem there is an 18-40 ATS record when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Purdue has been one of the best teams to bet on in recent years, going 46-25 ATS in all games L3 seasons, including 7-1 as a favorite so far in 2016. 10* Purdue |
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12-28-16 | Bucks +4 v. Pistons | 119-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I played both of these teams on the day after Christmas. Truth be told, I feel it "should" have been a 2-0 sweep. Detroit certainly held up its end of the bargain, blowing out an undermanned Cleveland team (no LeBron James), 106-90. It certainly helped the Pistons that the Cavs were off a huge win over Golden State on Christmas (reason James was held out). Meanwhile, around the same time that Detroit was beating Cleveland, Milwaukee also appeared to be en route to a double digit win in Washington. They led the Wizards most of the way after jumping out to an early 7-0 lead and the game was 96-86 in their favor w/ just over seven minutes to go. But from there, they were outscored 21-6 and I had to settle for a 'push.' I look for atonement tonight from the Bucks, who are the better team getting points. The Bucks come off three straight 'home and home' sets, which was some quirky scheduling. They swept Chicago, got swept by Cleveland and then split with the Wizards. Here, they will face a Detroit team that they lost to very early in the year, 98-83 as seven-point underdogs in the Motor City. Judging by the lines, the Bucks have clearly picked up some respect from the oddsmakers as they should have. Or is it that the Pistons have lost some? Probably a little of both. I don't read much into the fact that Detroit just went 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists. What a break it was to face those teams, both at home, sandwiched around the NBA Finals rematch on X-Mas Day. Prior to beating the LeBron-less Cavs on Monday, the Pistons had lost five in a row, four of those coming by double digits. While Milwaukee perhaps might still be a little short-handed tonight, they're still in a better spot than the last time they came calling to the Palace of Auburn Hills. On October 30th, they were in the second game of a back to back and had just won a tough two-point game the night previous. While some role players might be MIA, the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who damn well better be an All-Star this year. Outside of Tony Snell, no one made a three-pointer against the Wizards, something that will not happen tonight. Nor will the Pistons be able to benefit from the Bucks shooting a poor 38% from the floor like the LeBron-less Cavs did Monday night. Detroit, typically a poor shooting team in its own right, was 16 of 28 from three-point range against Cleveland as well. That won't be duplicated here as for the year they're just 34.4% from behind the arc. 8* Milwaukee |
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12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:35 ET): I really like the Jazz in this spot. Granted, they have not been performing well of late. But I still have them ranked in the top seven in the league despite three consecutive losses. Two were to Golden State and Toronto, who are my top two ranked teams. The third came by one point. After having the Holiday weekend off, I anticipate this team will come out highly motivated and take advantage of an opponent ripe for a letdown. The Lakers beat the Clippers on Christmas Day, but remain a downtrodden franchise as it was only their second win in December, the other coming at Philadelphia's expense. Lay the number here. Really, the fact that the Jazz are even competitive in the Western Conference is really impressive given all the injuries that they have had to deal with. George Hill and Alec Burks remain out, though Rodney Hood is expected back tonight after dealing with the flu. That said, the won-loss record could certainly be better. It's a bit strange to see that they've played only three games decided by three points or less. But they definitely gave one away Wednesday to Sacramento. Still, I'm encouraged by the fact that over half of the team's wins have come by double digits and they've also cleaned up against the bottom feeders, going 13-5 vs. those teams at .500 or below. The Lakers, for those keeping score at home, are 12-22 SU. While the Lakers may have snapped an 11-game win streak against their tenants and city rival on X-Mas day, the Clippers were clearly short-handed as they were without both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. So let's not give Luke Walton's team too much credit, okay. LA continues to rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (currently 29th). That's a far cry from Utah's fourth place ranking. In fact, there's a 15.4 point per game differential between what the Jazz and Lakers respectively allow. Not only do the Lakers have just two wins this month, they are only 4-10 ATS. Utah is 6-1 ATS the L7 times its has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, including perfect 3-0 ATS this season. 10* Utah |
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12-27-16 | Cornell v. Syracuse -19 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): In the rugged ACC, Syracuse is on the verge of becoming somewhat irrelevant. Perhaps that's an overreaction. After all, the program was just in the Final Four (as a 10-seed) last season. But it does appear as if another mediocre regular season is in the cards, judging by recent results. The Orange are nowhere close to the level of North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Louisville. That become patently obvious when they lost outright, by 33, to former Big East foe St. John's here at home, six days ago. They were 14-point favorites in that game. It was the Orange's second home loss in three games and the worst ever at the Carrier Dome. But there is a precedent for a bounce back and keep in mind this team used to never lose non-conference home games. I'll still lay the points here. Syracuse was simply atrocious from the field against St. John's, which partly explains the shocking result. They were just 32.8% overall, including 4 of 24 from three-point range. This is the first time in Jim Boeheim's coaching career that he's lost five times in the non-conference portion of the schedule. St. John's has generally been awful under Chris Mullin, so I really can't state how shocking a loss, particularly the margin it came by, was. But, as I said earlier, there is precedent for a bounce back here. After losing to Georgetown on 12.17, two days later the Orange blew out Eastern Michigan here at the Dome, 105-57. I expect something similar, maybe not quite as severe, here. The team is 5-2 ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Cornell is the opponent Monday and they are a regular on the Syracuse schedule. Not surprisingly, the head to head matchups have been lopsided in favor of the Orange. It was a 21-point win last year. Cornell is not as strong this season as they have only three wins, one of them coming their last time out against SE Missouri State. The 78-62 win there represents their largest margin of victory - easily - all season. Away from home, where the Big Red has played most of its games, they are giving up over 80 points per game. Offensively, they have only three players averaging more than six points per game. 10* Syracuse |
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12-26-16 | Cavs v. Pistons -6 | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I pounced on this line the second I saw it as I believe there's a good chance Cleveland will be resting stars following it's thrilling 109-108 victory over Golden State on Christmas Day. Regardless of who does or does not rest for the Cavs and what the line ends up being, this play stands. Detroit did not play Christmas Day and is a desperate team right now. They've lost five in a row now after falling here at home to Golden State on Friday. They did cover there (barely!), however, and this is somewhat of a "lucky" scheduling quirk in that they draw the Warriors and Cavs sandwiched around their big NBA Finals rematch. The defending NBA Champs are now 22-6 and have won 10 of their last 11 games, the lone loss being a situation where they rested LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (at Memphis on December 14th). That trio combined for an incredible 76 points, 25 rebounds, 17 assists and 10 steals yday. You have to wonder what any of them would have left in the tank for tonight. Two of the Cavs' six losses this year have been w/ James out of the lineup. They also haven't had to play much on the road lately. They did trail the Warriors by 14 early in the fourth quarter yday and I'm still a bit concerned about the team's defense, which still only ranks 13th in efficiency. That will have to improve if they are to repeat as World Champs. Detroit is a good defensive team (7th in efficiency). They've slipped some in that department of late, but again, this is a desperate team entering the final week of 2016. Despite the recent struggles though, the Pistons are one of just seven teams in the East to have outscored opponents this year. They are allowing only 94.0 PPG at home. They are 3-1 ATS as home dogs factoring in the Warriors game. Again, I expect Cleveland to rest at least one (likely two?) of its superstar trio. As of press time, both LeBron and Kyrie's statuses are questionable. Again, regardless if they play not, this play stands. With the injury to JR Smith, the Cavs are a depth-shy team. They used only eight players Sunday and one of them (DeAndre Liggins) was held scoreless. 8* Detroit |
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12-26-16 | Bucks +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): What an odd scheduling stretch it's been for the Bucks. Tonight's battle in the Nation's Capital will complete their third consecutive home and home series w/ an Eastern Conference opponent. The first, with Chicago, saw them take both games in impressive fashion. The second, with Cleveland, brought two tough losses (one in overtime). This one, with Washington, started out by them winning 123-96 as three-point favorites on Friday. Therefore, given that result and what we've seen from the two teams over the course of the season, I don't really understand this line. The Bucks have been the better team all year long and while the Wizards have had a profitable December, Friday's result illustrated that they still have a long way to go. Take the points. Though currently only .500, Milwaukee has the look of a playoff team to me. Over the L4 seasons, they have alternated playoff and non-playoff years, so that pattern works now works in their favor for 2016-17 after dipping down to 33 wins LY. They are one of only five Eastern Conference squads to be currently outscoring opponent by 2.0 points per game and I like the young talent on hand here. Particularly Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored a career-high 39 points on Friday. If this man is not an All-Star, there should be a federal investigation. The team scored 73 pts in the first half and shot 56.3% for the game against the Wizards. While those marks will prove difficult to match tonight, especially on the road, note Washington is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency. The Bucks were able to score 66 pts in the paint against them on Friday. Coming into the year, many (myself included) had thought the Wizards might be the young team ready to step up in the East. Thus far, that obviously has not happened. They have been a better team at home and like I said earlier; they've been better in December (7-2 ATS L9 games). But, to show how the market regards them, this will be the first time in the last seven games they have been favored. They were favored at home vs. Milwaukee (-4.5) back on December 10th and wound up covering by half a point. They won't be as fortunate this time around. 10* Milwaukee |
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12-25-16 | Celtics -1.5 v. Knicks | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
8* Boston (12:05 ET): Taking a look at the current Eastern Conference landscape, it becomes quite clear that there are two teams - Cleveland and Toronto - well ahead of the pack. There are also three teams - Miami, Brooklyn and Philadelphia (especially the latter two) - that have already fallen off the playoff pace. Everyone else (10 teams) is bunched up, seperated by no more than four games. Of those 10 teams, the Knicks belong near the bottom. Granted, record-wise, they're not just middle of the pack, but actually near the top. But this is a team that's been outscored by about 2.2 pts per game (similar differential to Miami) and is a lousy 3-9 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record. They also rank 25th in defensive efficiency. Coming into MSG on Christmas Day will be the Knicks' division rival, Boston. The Celtics were expected to be the top contender to Cleveland in the East this year, but so far that has NOT been the case as it's Toronto instead. But Boston certainly is in discussion for the third best team in the conference. Coming off an outright loss (at home) to Oklahoma City on Friday night, motivation should not be an issue for the road team here. Nor is the price range judging from the fact that this season has seen the C's go a perfect 6-0 against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less. Overall, they are 12-5 ATS on the road, one of the best marks in the league. Ironically, the Knicks have the best ATS home record in the league (11-4). But, again, that's largely a byproduct of being undervalued against bad teams. Case in point; they're off B2B wins and covers over Indiana and Orlando. It appears as if the media will be infatuated with Kristaps Porzingis' status here. But I believe that Celtics PG Isaiah Thomas is the player to watch in this game. He scored 29 points in the 115-87 win over the Knicks last month while Porizingis played one of his worst games of the season, missing 10 of 15 shots. Thomas almost led the team to victory Friday by scoring 15 consecutive pts in the 4Q, but ultimately it was not enough. But the Knicks are a weaker opponent than the Thunder. Being a top 10 team in offensive efficiency, the Celtics should be able to score plenty here. 8* Boston |
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12-23-16 | Northern Kentucky v. West Virginia -25 | Top | 61-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): I've seen terms like "upstart" thrown around when referring to Northern Kentucky, who comes to us by way of the Horizon League. And perhaps that's true; the Norse are 9-3 straight up in this still young season, having already pulled off three outright upsets. Overall, they are 7-1 ATS at the betting window, including a perfect 4-0 when getting points. But, needless to say, it's a big step up in class from their previous opponent (NAIA school Brescia) to West Virginia, who almost everyone considers one of the seven best teams in the country. Well, except the pollsters, but what to do they know? Bob Huggins' Mountaineers are 8-0 SU in Morgantown w/ an avg MOV of 41 points per game! So, yeah, don't be afraid to lay this number, which should be several points higher. WVU is a deep team. Huggins has elected to go w/ a 13 man rotation at times. Given the defensive pressure we see from them, that's probably a wise move at this juncture of the season. Currently, the Mountaineers lead the country in forcing turnovers at a whopping 26.3 per game. They are a top four team in terms of defensive efficiency and also top 15 on the offensive end. The lone loss came at a neutral setting against Temple (by four) and since then the Mounties have won six in a row, five of those coming by at least 27 points. The one exception, ironically, was perhaps the most impressive in the streak: a 66-57 win at Virginia. Despite beating Radford 84-57 three days ago, Huggins was sure to label his team's second half performance as "really lethargic," so expect this to be a motivated favorite this afternoon. For the record, while WVU was outscored in the second half by Radford (35-31), they also entered halftime w/ a 53-22 advantage. Maybe Northern Kentucky is an "upstart." But here they're simply "overmatched." Norse HC John Brannen wasn't exactly pleased w/ his team's last performance, despite it also being a 20+ pt win. But the difference between NKU and WVU is that the former is in no position to "name the score" here. Picking to finish seventh in the 10-team Horizon League, the Norse have taken advantage of some generous lines thus far. Remember, their last two opponents were Eastern Washington (maybe the biggest overachiever in terms of wins & losses in the country) and a NAIA school. They have lost to Austin Peay, NC Central and Illinois by 15. Without question, this will be the toughest opponent they face all year. 10* West Virginia |
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12-22-16 | Spurs v. Clippers +1.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): I get that the Clippers have regressed some since a very hot start to the year and that the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five games. But I still believe that at home, the Clips deserve to be favored in this spot. Consider that earlier in the season, during that hot start, the Clips went to San Antonio and whipped the Spurs 116-92 as 4.5-pt dogs. While this game be that lopsided? Probably not. But after watching what Los Angeles did for me on Tuesday night vs. Denver (I laid the points), I'm confident that they can win this game. This is the Spurs' second tough road game in the L3 nights. Tuesday saw them go into Houston and snap the Rockets' 10-game win streak. But they had to pull off a desperate rally, culminating w/ a Patty Mills' three-pointer w/ 12.9 seconds remaining, to earn that 102-100 victory. They also benefited from some uncharacteristic poor Houston shooting. The Rockets made only 38% of their total FG attempts and missed 32 of 38 three-pointers. The other teams, save for Boston, that San Antonio has beaten during this win streak of theirs quite frankly haven't been very good. The list includes Brooklyn, New Orleans and Phoenix. Overall, they've shot 10 full percentage points better than their opponents the L5 games. That is a difficult differential to maintain. In terms of efficiency, the Clippers are 5th on offense while San Antonio is 6th. On defense, the Spurs are 4th and the Clippers are 5th. So that seems like a pretty even matchup to me. The Clippers' only loss over the L6 games was one of those dreaded Sunday afternoon affairs, in Washington, at the end of a three-game Southeast trip. They returned home to blow out Denver on Tuesday, shooting 54.7% from the floor. They did so w/o the services of Blake Griffin and it is his continued absence that can be the only justification for the current number on this game. I think it's an overreaction. The Spurs will be resting Manu Ginobili tonight, by the way. As a road fave of three points or less, the Spurs are a surprisingly poor 4-9 SU and ATS the L3 seasons. This is just the fourth time all year that the Clippers will be an underdog. They are 2-1 SU/ATS previously. 8* LA Clippers |
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12-22-16 | UC-Davis v. Air Force -6 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
10* Air Force (4:00 ET): This will be the second time this week that I'm taking the Flyboys here in Colorado Springs. Monday, I backed them getting points against Colorado. Though Colorado somewhat gifted us the cover w/ some bad FT shooting down the stretch, note that it was also a tie game w/ just under 10 minutes remaining. Air Force outrebounded the Buffs, but all of those achievements are nothing more than Pyrrhic considering it was the Falcons' second straight loss at home and sixth in the last seven games overall. But, I feel the third time will be the charm Thursday in Colorado Springs. What is it with these bad Big West teams? Yesterday's 10* College Hoops play saw me fade Cal State Northridge and today I'll do the same w/ Cal Davis. Lay the points. Cal Davis snapped its own four-game losing skid last Saturday, but that came at the expense of William Jessup. The Aggies actually burned me by covering last week at North Dakota State, a game where they were getting 10 points. I'm not so sure that the difference between N Dakota State and Air Force is as great as the oddsmakers are making it out to be here. Note that the entirety of Cal Davis' losing streak came away from home, either in a neutral site game (1) or "true" road games (3). I did successfully play against them in a 25-point loss at Cal on December 10th. Save for Cal, it's been a pretty weak schedule for the Aggies to this point. These teams have exchanged upset victories each of the last two seasons. In 2014, it was Cal Davis coming here to Colorado Springs and winning outright as 6.5-point pups, 81-75. The AFA returned the favor last season by winning 67-60 as 4.5-point pups. This year, I say it's time for the favorite to hold serve. Air Force is most certainly the better team here and they're at home. Despite the losing streak, they've arguably been competitive in every game as all but one loss was by single digits. As I continue to harp on, the bottom of the Big West seems to be really bad this year and Air Force is 6-2 ATS its last eight games vs. this conference. I just can't see the Falcons losing a third consecutive home game and the number is small. 10* Air Force |
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12-21-16 | Kings v. Jazz -6.5 | 94-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): These teams experienced very different results last night. The Jazz were completely humbled in a 104-74 loss to Golden State. The Kings, paced by 55 points from the enigmatic Boogie Cousins, won a wild one over Portland, 126-121. But let's not allow one night's results to cloud the overall picture of these respective teams. Utah has lost only three times in its last 14 games. Two of those were to Golden State, the other by a single point to Miami. Sacramento, who has yet to post B2B wins this month, is a below average team w/ massive chemistry issues. The Kings have lost SU and failed to cover off their previous six SU wins. The Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS off a double digit loss this season. Lay the points. It hardly mattered in the end, but the Jazz did themselves no favors last night by shooting just 35.5% from the floor. Despite coming out of the gate ice cold, they were actually able to hang with the Warriors for a bit, trailing only 19-15 at the end of the first quarter. Utah remains one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at home where they give up an average of just 93.5 points per game. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. Just 11 days ago, they beat Sacramento by 20 here, 104-84 as six-point chalk, limiting them to only 37.8% shooting. My projections say this should be a double-digit line. Looking at how each team has performed in the second of back to back games also is telling. Sacramento is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the spot while Utah is 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS. The Kings are annually one of the worst defensive teams in the league and a far cry from the Jazz on that end of the floor. To quantify, they rank 24th in efficiency and give up an average of 104.6 PPG. It's safe to say that Cousins won't be scoring 55 points again tonight. The only time in the L13 games that he failed to score at least 20 points was that loss here in Utah 11 days ago. Keep in mind that game saw the Jazz turn the ball over 22 times, leading to 36 Sacramento points, and they still won by 20. Off a season-low in points scored, I expect a major bounce back here from the Jazz at home. 8* Utah |
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12-21-16 | CS-Northridge v. Boise State -12 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
10* Boise State (9:00 ET): This time of year, the faithful on the Boise State campus are typically more concerned with the school's upcoming bowl game. This year, the Broncos' football team will be facing Baylor, next Tuesday, in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. But there's also a basketball game taking place on campus tonight and that's against a struggling Cal State Northridge team that is ripe to be routed. I've successfully targeted many of these Big West bottom feeders during this incredible College Hoops run I'm on and one could make the argument that the Matadors are the worst that conference has to offer. They come into tonight only 3-8 SU/2-7 ATS on the season and they've yet to win on the road. Lay the points. A 100-95 loss to Bethesda on Friday was certainly not a "good look" for Northridge. That's a NCCAA (National Christian College Athletic Association) school for those keeping track. Thus, one could say the Matadors don't have a "prayer" here (heyyyyyy-o!). By the way, that game did not got into overtime. CSN actually allowed 100 pts in regulation to a non D-I school, at home! Bethesda led the entire second half and by as many as 10 at one point. It would be one thing if the Matadors had been playing well previously, but they had not. Two of their three wins this year came in games where they were favored and those wins were both by three points or less. (The other was against a non DI school). So calling for a "bounce back" in this situation seems fruitless. Boise State made a strong accounting for itself its last time out, waxing Idaho State 82-59 as 15.5-pt chalk. Ironically, Idaho State is also one of the three teams that Cal State Northridge beat this year. But the Matadors won by only three over the Bengals. Boise State has beaten SMU, a good team, on this floor. They've also gone to Oregon, a top 20 team, and lost by only five. In eight of their 10 games, the Broncos have had the lead at halftime. This is a strong home team as well w/ a 41-1 SU run vs. non-conference foes. Overall, they are 59-8 SU L67 home games. Three-point defense is huge for the Broncos as opponents are only making 4.5 per game against them at a 29% clip. In other words, this is a total mismatch and I look for BSU to end its non-conference slate on a high note. Cal State Northridge may also again be w/o Aaron Parks (undisclosed), who is one of their four double digits scorers. That would really hurt a team w/ little depth. 10* Boise State |
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12-20-16 | Fresno State v. Oregon -14 | 63-75 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Oregon, now ranked #20 in the polls (fair ranking), has lost only two times all year. One of those came in their lone "true" road game, at Baylor, all the way back on November 15th. The other came six days later vs. Georgetown in Maui, a game they fell way behind early, only to have a furious second half rally come up just shy. There should be no need for a rally Tuesday evening in Eugene as Fresno State comes to campus. Given what we've seen from the Ducks thus far, I have every reason to believe that this will end up being another blowout adding to their already impressive average margin of victory (+24.6 PPG) here at home. Fresno State, playing its second road game in four days, is off a tough two-point win over Pacific. I question what the Bulldogs have left in the tank here. Lay the points. Having covered that last game (barely) as 1.5-point favorites, FSU is now 4-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS overall. But the competition hasn't been all that impressive and they've actually lost a pair of non-lined games to Prairie View A&M and Cal State Bakersfield. Prairie View A&M is among the worst teams in the entire country and the CS-Bakersfield game was on the road. Since then the Bulldogs have won six of seven, the only loss coming by three at Marquette, but this will be their toughest foe yet. That game on Saturday vs. Pacific saw the Bulldogs nail a pair of free throws in the closing seconds as they erased what had been a five-point deficit w/ just 1:15 to go. Oregon comes into tonight riding a 32-game home win streak, which is third longest in the nation. They are currently w/o leading scorer Chris Boucher, but Jordan Bell more than picked up the slack w/ 16 pts and 12 rebounds in the 20-point win over UNLV (which took place in Portland) Saturday night. Remember, this Ducks team not only won the Pac 12 last year, they reached the Elite 8. Fresno State has NEVER won in Eugene and has not beaten a Top 25 squad since 2002. Should be an easy one for the Ducks. 8* Oregon |
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12-20-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers lost on Sunday afternoon, at Washington, 117-110 as a 5.5-point favorite. I've said it many times before, but those random non-nationally televised Sunday afternoon games sure seem to always favor the home team, don't they. For the Clips, that outright loss capped an 0-3 ATS trek through the Southeast. Previously, they had failed to cover in wins over Orlando and Miami. The fact that it was their third road game in five nights also helps explain why the team lost outright in D.C. But Tuesday night, they're back home and playing a team that is w/o rest, that being Denver. I see this as being a "get well game" for Los Angeles, who should roll to victory despite not having Blake Griffin. Lay the points. Denver got me last night, beating Dallas 117-107 and just covering the 8.5-point spread. It was a game they trailed early, by as many as 12. I still stand behind the play, but let's remember that Dallas is among the worst teams in the league. The Clippers are among the very best. The entirety of the Nuggets' current three-game win streak came at home against below average opponents. Their last road trip not only saw them lose at Dallas, but go 2-4 SU overall w/ one of the wins coming at Philadelphia's expense. This is a very bad team defensively (26th in efficiency) and they are not going to shoot 57% from the floor again, like they did last night vs. Dallas. The Clippers started the season on an other-worldly pace in defensive efficiency, but have since regressed some to 5th place overall. Still, that's a good ranking to have. They also rank fifth in offensive efficiency, making them the only team besides Golden State to rank in the top five at both ends of the floor. Here at home, they are outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game. I would certainly have them as a double-digit fave for this one. Anything less is a bargain in my estimation as the Nuggets are bound to give up a ton of points in this one. 10* LA Clippers |
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12-20-16 | Richmond v. James Madison +3.5 | Top | 75-55 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
10* James Madison (7:00 ET): Very little has gone right for James Madison so far this season. Case in point, they couldn't even manage a cover (as underdogs) against Appalachian State on Saturday despite the game going into OT. The Dukes were outscored 14-2 in the extra period, thereby ensuring they would NOT cover the 3.5-point spread. While close throughout, JMU led at the half and was up three w/ just six seconds remaining in regulation. So they were actually outscored 17-2 over the final 5:06. The loss leaves the Dukes at a rather ugly 1-9 SU this season as well as 1-7 ATS. The lone cover came at old CAA rival George Mason back on 11.26 while the lone SU win came at the expense of non-board team Longwood on 12.3 That all being said, I see some value on the Dukes in this spot as they get set to host Richmond. Obviously, they should feel somewhat "robbed" of the cover their last time out. Not only that, but this team has lost four other games by seven points or less, so it's not as if they're being routinely blown out. They also get to return home for the 1st time since 11.23. That's nearly a full month, if you're keeping score at home. This team has played just three home games thus far and while I faded them in an ugly loss to Rice early in the year, we've now come full circle. They're now hosting a team that they've beaten outright each of the last two seasons! I'm not sure that Richmond deserves to be favored on the road, even against a 1-9 opponent. The Spiders are also in off a loss, theirs coming at home to Texas Tech. That will be a tough loss to get over as TT is a good team and Richmond had the lead at half. But they were down by as many as 17 in the second half before rallying. Also, there was a scary situation with freshman Grant Golden collapsing on the bench. Now playing as a road favorite for the 1st time in 2016, this is a tough spot for the Spiders. They are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far this season, including an outright loss to another old CAA rival of JMU's, that being Old Dominion. The Spiders are just 2-11 ATS in the month of December the L2 years and have lost outright three of the past four times they've been road chalk of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* James Madison |
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12-19-16 | Mavs +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:05 ET): For the most part, it has been a miserable season thus far for the once proud Mavericks. Perhaps Mark Cuban is spending too much time worrying about "Shark Tank," because the roster of his basketball team is the weakest its been since buying the organization. However, while the team is still tied (w/ Philadelphia) for the worst overall record in the league at 7-20 straight up, there have been some positive developments of late. Such as blowing out Sacramento last night, 99-79, for their third win in the last six games. They are 4-2 ATS over that span, including a close loss to Utah in a national TV game Friday night. Here, they drop in class to take on a Denver team that I simply don't believe is worthy of laying this much weight. Take the points. Since returning home from a six-game trip out East, the Nuggets have responded w/ B2B double digit victories over Portland and New York. Those teams are among the very worst defensively in the entire league. Dallas' issue is on the offensive end where they rank 27th in the league in efficiency. Sure enough, they've held three of the last four opponents to 95 points or less. Denver, meanwhile, is 25th in defensive efficiency and was fortunate that those last two opponents are among the select group below them in that department. In each of the last four games, the Nuggets have given up at least 112 points. None of those games went to overtime. Again, those are not the kind of defensive numbers you'd want to see when laying points in this price range. One of those four games was a 112-92 loss at Dallas. One could make the argument that it was the Nuggets' worst game of the season. Whatever happened there, I certainly think that the oddsmakers have failed to adjust for this rematch as they basically are saying both teams are the same since then. I believe the Mavs have steadily improved as is evident by last night's performance. Six players scored in double figures and defensively it was season-best effort in terms of points allowed. The Mavs never trailed in the game. I can only assume that like the Wizards, we are seeing a team undervalued due to being in the second of B2B games. 8* Dallas |
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12-19-16 | Colorado v. Air Force +8 | Top | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Air Force (9:00 ET): These are in-state foes, remember. Colorado has won and covered its last three visits here to Colorado Springs and also beat the AFA last season in Boulder, 81-70, albeit they failed to cash as 15-pt chalk. For this year's matchup, I do not like the setup for the Buffaloes perspective. This will be their second game in three days and while the last one was a "cupcake," only beating Fort Hayes State by 10 points is a bit of a troubling sight. Meanwhile, the Flyboys have been off since December 10th when they lost here at home to Denver. That was their first home loss of the year after starting 6-0 SU, so grabbing the points seems ideal and a nice value. Air Force has lost five of six, but most of the losses have been close. The AFA has run into some red-hot shooting opponents of late, most notably Denver, who finished the game at a blistering 56.9% from the field.The Pioneers got a career-best effort from Daniel Amigo, who finished w/ 33 points. It was a similar story on 12.7 at Army as the Cadets shot better than 50 percent. But the time off should help shore up the defense and quite frankly Colorado isn't a good shooting team anyway. The Buffs are barely above 40% from the field the L5 games, which cost them games vs. Colorado State and BYU. Earlier, I spoke of the fact that the AFA has played well at home this year. They are averaging 85.6 PPG here and outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. They are also 8-2 ATS the L10 times taking the court w/ at least seven days rest. Colorado HC Tad Davis did not mince words concerning his team's performance Saturday, the second half in particular, despite coming out on the winning end. "This team has two things going for it right now," Boyle said. "Number one, they own the most-disappointing loss in that seven-year span, the Colorado State game a few weeks ago. And now they also can add to that, that they own the most-disappointing win." Beating a D-II school by only 10 pts at home, following a long break, is certainly not a "good look." Yes, CU led by as many as 21 in the first half. But they barely outrebounded Fort Hayes State and allowed a player (Rob Davis) to score 29 pts after halftime. The Buffs are just 7-19 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. 10* Air Force |
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12-19-16 | Pistons +3 v. Bulls | Top | 82-113 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): Something I failed to mention in the Washington-Indiana analysis is just how log-jammed the Eastern Conference is at the present time. After Cleveland and Toronto, there are nine teams separated by just 2.5 games in the standings, all but one (15-12 Boston) within two games over .500 either way. Like Washington & Indiana, count Detroit & Chicago among that group. The two Central Division rivals meet Monday night in the Second City and despite the fact both teams appear to be on a downward trajectory, I favor the Pistons in this one. They have lost B2B games as favorites, ironically to Washington and Indiana, but have typically shown a strong propensity to bounce back from such defeats, going 24-9 ATS when off an outright loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. The Bulls have lost three in a row straight up and are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Take the points. I have to admit that Chicago's strong play at the outset of the season really surprised me. I did not like the offseason that they had and though the Dwyane Wade signing was completely overrated as it did not really "fit" the roster. Early on, offensive efficiency was shockingly good, but the team has since regressed in that department, hitting a new low in Friday's 95-69 home loss to Milwaukee. In that game, the team shot a dismal 30.4% from the floor. Obviously, it is highly unlikely that they'll be that bad again, but to what degree do they improve? There are major questions surrounding HC Fred Hoiberg's tenure here as it's looking more and more like he was a lousy choice to succeed Tom Thibodeau. Meanwhile, I have far more faith in Pistons' HC Stan Van Gundy to right his ship. Remember, I had this team in a road win over Dallas last Wednesday. Since then, they've lost B2B games by double digits. That prompted the dreaded "players only meeting," but unlike in Chicago, I do not feel there is any kind of serious disconnect between the players and the coach. Detroit beat Chicago earlier this year, 102-91 (at home) as 5.5-pt favorites. Not sure why there would be any kind of positive adjustment by the linesmakers for the Bulls here, given that they are playing worse now. 8* Detroit |
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12-19-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, the Wizards were my pick to win the Southeast Division prior to the start of the year (expected a tight battle between them and Charlotte). But the season got off to an awful start for the Wiz, leaving myself (and many others I'm sure!) to re-evaluate just where this team stood. Well, all of a sudden, they're starting to play well as is evident by three consecutive SU wins, all as underdogs. Yesterday, they beat the Clippers at home, 117-110, not needing the +5.5 the linesmakers were giving them. They are now 5-1 SU/ATS L6 and I can only assume it is the fact they are playing the second of back to back games that they are getting this many points against the Pacers. Because I have the Wizards rated as the better team here. Take the points. Indiana is also off an upset win, theirs coming back on Saturday when they went to Detroit and beat the Pistons, 105-90 as 4.5-pt dogs. That win enabled them to avoid what would have been a winless road trip as they'd previously dropped games at Miami and New Orleans. Indiana is another team I'd classify as an "early season disappointment," far more so than Washington at this point. One thing I'd like to point out is that the Pacers shouldn't go into this game thinking they'll be dealing w/ another cold-shooting opponent. The Pistons shot just 38.1% against them on Saturday, but the Wizards have shot better than 50% in every game during the three-game win streak. Bradley Beal scored 41 points yesterday. In evaluating these teams, they grade out as remarkably similar w/ the Wiz just slightly better. So, again, I think the road team is being undervalued due to being in the second of B2B road games. Admittedly, it's a role that hasn't treated them well thus far in 2016, but note that Indiana is 0-4 both SU and ATS coming off a SU dog win this season. It would seem that the game taking place at Bankers Life Fieldhouse would favor the Pacers given that they are 10-4 SU at home and the Wizards are 2-8 SU on the road. But the road team won all three head to head meetings last year. In a battle this even, taking the points is the way to go, especially w/ the hotter team. 8* Washington |
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12-18-16 | Gonzaga v. Tennessee +10.5 | Top | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (4:00 ET): It's no secret that I've been targeting the rapidly dwindling number of unbeaten teams left in the country. That number is still six after Saturday, though the weakest of the bunch (USC) got a major scare from 22-point underdog Troy (who I was on) as did UCLA and Creighton. Aside from defending National Champion Villanova, I don't believe any of the other unbeatens are among the very best in the nation, though everyone except USC belongs in the top 25. One of those teams is Gonzaga, who takes the court for the first time in eight days. The Zags have yet to play a "true" road game and while this one isn't on Tennessee's campus, you still have to figure it will be quite the partisan crowd in Nashville at the Bridgestone Arena (home of the NHL's Predators). I'm taking the points. Though Gonzaga arrives here at 10-0 SU and off three consecutive covers, they have had some close calls thus far. Three times they've won by seven points or less, against Iowa State, Florida and Arizona. Those games were all contested at far more "neutral" sites than this one. Last time we saw them, they drubbed poor Akron 61-43, a game where the Zips shot a miserable 26.7% from the field. It was a similar story for Gonzaga's previous opponent, Washington, who was held to 30.4%. Fortunately for our sake, Tennessee comes in shooting 46.9% for the year. They've been above 45% in each of the L6 games, four times making more than they missed. At the same time, the Vols have done an excellent job defending, the three-point line in particular. None of their L5 opponents have shot 45% from the field and for the year teams are shooting below 30% from behind the arc against them. Tennessee is no stranger to playing elite teams this year as this will be the fourth Top 20 foe that they've faced. They're a perfect 3-0 ATS against Oregon, Wisconsin and North Carolina and actually led the Tar Heels for much of the second half, in Chapel Hill, last Saturday. While Gonzaga's been off, the Vols have played twice this week, blowing out both Tennessee Tech and Lipscomb. This is a revenge spot as well from an eight-point loss in Seattle last year. 10* Tennessee |
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12-17-16 | Troy State +21.5 v. USC | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
8* Troy (10:30 ET): With two weeks to go in the calendar year, six unbeaten teams remain in College Basketball. One of them, USC, is significantly worse than the rest. (Admittedly, Villanova is also appreciably better than the other four). Therefore, I'll fade the Trojans here against an opponent of their same namesake. Though part of the Las Vegas Classic, note this is still a home game for USC, who has now cracked the top 25 in the AP Poll. But they still haven't cracked my own top 25, nor are they that close to doing so. (Top 35 is more appropriate). Despite missing Bennie Boatright, they still haven't been tested recently, but I'll call for that to change in this late Saturday night start. Charles Buggs is also listed as questionable here w/ a hamstring injury. Troy has taken advantage of a pretty light schedule here in December in rolling to three consecutive victories over non-lined foes. Last time out, these Trojans blew out Point University 114-52, the second time they've topped 100 pts against a non-DI foe this year. Scoring has dipped rather dramatically when they take their act out on the road, but this is still a big pointspread for a team that has lost by more than 12 pts only one time this year. A 1-5 ATS record has just as much to do w/ this spread as does USC's surprising start and as we so often see, this confluence has led to an overreaction by the marketplace. In my estimation, this spread should be several points lower. Boatright was considered to be one of the best power forwards in the nation, so his loss is significant. Buggs is not really a major contributor, but his potential absence still thins the roster. Granted, USC had no trouble w/ Pepperdine on Sunday (won 93-67), their only game in the last two weeks. But I can't see a duplication of their red-hot shooting from that game (56.6%!), nor is Troy likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Pepper |
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12-17-16 | Cal Poly v. California -17.5 | Top | 55-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
10* California (8:00 ET): Last Saturday, Cal was my 10* Game of the Week and the Bears treated me well w/ a 86-61 win over UC Irvine. They haven't played since and a week later we find them drawing another overmatched Big West opponent. That would be Cal Poly, who has said "goodbye" to home for the remainder of 2016 as the Mustangs are embarking on a six-game trip which will lead into the start of conference play. Granted, this isn't a long trip, but it's a daunting one given that Cal is now at full strength and looking good. Cal Poly has already lost to one Pac 12 team, Arizona State, by 22 earlier in the year. Cal is a significantly better team than ASU, so lay the points here. Cal Poly, like Cal, was off all week due to exams. Unlike the Bears, they lost their last game. It was a double-digit defeat at the hands of Fresno State to start this six-game trip. Again, that's a much inferior squad compared to what they'll face here. The Mustangs trailed by as many as 20 points last Saturday and matched their lowest offensive output of the season (59 points) due to some pretty dreadful shooting (19 of 51 from the field). It was the second time in three games that they scored only 59 pts, which is not a good sign here against a Cal team playing excellent defense. Extended rest has never helped the Mustangs in the past as they're just 1-6 ATS the last seven tries taking the court w/ at least five or six days rest. They had been off a whole week prior to playing Fresno State as well. Cal has allowed more than 65 points in a game just once all season. Here in Berkeley, where they are undefeated (7-0, winning by an avg of 17 PPG), they are holding teams to 59 PPG on 36.7% shooting. So it promises to be a long night for Cal Poly on the offensive end here. This is a big game as Cal can set a new school record w/ a 27th consecutive victory at home! As I mentioned in my writeup last week, the Bears are now healthier than they've been all season. Having Ivan Raab also helps as the preseason All-American is averaging 14.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. But it is freshman Charlie Moore now leading the way w/ 17.6 PPG. The Bears have three double-digit scorers and are a top 16 team nationally in rebounding and points allowed. This shapes up as another mismatch for them at Haas Pavillion. This team will be a threat in the Pac 12 this year. 10* California |
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12-16-16 | Hornets +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Eastern Conference pecking order has two clear top teams (Cleveland and Toronto) and a large grouping of contenders below them. These two are part of that large grouping. Currently, Charlotte is in third place despite having lost their last three games. Right behind them (as in one-half game) is Boston, who likewise is on a three-game losing streak. So something will have to give here and while Kemba Walker is injured and unlikely to play, I still see the Hornets staying within the number. This is a revenge spot for the road team, who lost to the Celtics at home early in the year. The road team has enjoyed an unusual amount of success when these teams meet, as in four consecutive SU victories. Thus, I'll take the points. Charlotte figured to lose the first-game of this current five-game trek as they were in Cleveland. Sure enough, lose they did, 116-105 as eight-point underdogs. But they were favored at both Indiana and Washington, games they also lost SU. As a team, they shot the ball well at Washington (51.4%), but unfortunately the Wizards did the same and there were also an uncharacteristic 18 turnovers from the Hornets. Note that Walker did play in that game, so that was not the reason for the turnovers. Walker is missing this game for a "personal reason" and Ramon Sessions will start in his place. Even w/o Walker, I expect the good shooting from the Washington game to carryover here as the team is still only at 42.2% the L5 games, which is well below their season average. It's pretty remarkable how even these teams seem to be on paper. Both average exactly 104.3 PPG. Charlotte allows the same number of PPG on the road as Boston does at home (103.7). However, overall, the Hornets are allowing 0.7 PPG less for the year. They also average exactly one point per game more on the road compared to the Celtics at home. Thus, I am left to assume that tonight's larger than expected spread is a byproduct of Walker's absence and Walker's absence alone. It is an overreaction in my estimation and I question what Boston may have left in the tank here after such a difficult stretch of games. 10* Charlotte |
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12-16-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -19 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
10* Miami (FL): These two Floridian schools are both coming off long breaks (exams) and big wins. The last time we saw Miami FL, they were drubbing a clearly overmatched South Carolina State squad, 82-46 (non-lined game). That same day (December 6th), Florida Atlantic pulled of a major upset in beating Ohio State, in Columbus, as 20-pt underdogs. While the Owls have been competitive this year (three losses by four points or less), I feel the upset of OSU has created a situation where they're getting far too much respect from the market here. Miami is a better team than the Buckeyes and thus deserving of a higher price range. Yes, some adjustment must be made for FAU's win, but this would be a classic overadjustment. Lay the points. Florida Atlantic has played three "true" road games to this point and all have been decided by two points or less! That's two losses (Hawaii & UT Martin) plus the stunner in Columbus. How did the Owls upset the Buckeyes, you ask? Well, first let's point out the game went into overtime. FAU had to rally back from an 11-point second half deficit just to get the extra five minutes of game time and they were clearly aided by a bevy of Buckeyes' turnovers and missed three-pointers. The key to the upset, as it often is in this sport, was beyond the three-point arc where FAU went 10 of 25 and Ohio State was just 4 of 20. Perhaps the long break between games somewhat mitigates the concept of a "letdown" taking place here, but I still think the Owls are drastically overmatched heading into Coral Gables. The U is not ranked currently, but to me they are on the fringes of the Top 25. (For the record, they are in the "others receiving votes" category). Their only two losses this year have been to Iowa State and Florida, both on a neutral court. Those are both Top 20 teams, IMO, and they were actually favored over ISU (small dog vs. Florida). Those two losses begat a four-game ATS slide, so many may be wary of laying this kind of weight, but note that the 'Canes just missed out on covering similar DD spreads vs. Wofford and Rutgers. Teams are shooting just 36.2% against The U for the season. Meanwhile, The U is shooting 47%. FAU can enjoy the hiring of Lane Kiffin because this game will not go well. 10* Miami FL |
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12-15-16 | Murray State +9.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Murray State (8:00 ET): We have a relatively "short" number that a SEC school is laying against a so-called "mid-major." It's for good reason. The fact that Ole Miss checked in at #26 in the RPI heading into their last game (80-75 loss at Va Tech) shows just how flawed that particular metric is. The far more reliable KenPom ratings have them 93rd, which is about where Vegas has them as well. That game at Virginia Tech, the Rebels' first "true" road date of the season, saw them trail the entire second half and fall behind by as many as 14. Defensively, there are major issues in Oxford and I think those will cost them tonight laying this number against an always dangerous Murray State squad. This may not be the finest edition of Murray State basketball that we've seen through the years, but the Racers are deadly in this spot nonetheless. Yes, they've failed to cover their last five lined games, losing outright twice as a favorite. But they were at least able to build some confidence by blowing out NAIA school Bethel, 103-65 on Monday. While the Racers have yet to win B2B games this season, this will be the most points they've been catching so far. They covered as 9-point pups in the second game of the year, at Middle Tennessee, who is a better team that Ole Miss. Don't believe me? The Blue Raiders beat the Rebels 77-62 in Oxford on November 30th! That loss to Middle Tennessee is one of three for Murray State this year to come by six points or less (11 pts total). In nine games this season, Ole Miss has allowed at least eight made three-pointers eight times. Overall, they are giving up over 80 PPG. There's been only one game all year where they didn't allow at least 77 points. That's good for the underdog here as the Racers come in averaging 80 PPG and that's even after the dreadful shooting performance last week at Evansville. Ole Miss allowed Va Tech to sink 10 three-pointers on Sunday. Note that Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference rival UT Martin came here to Oxford and nearly won outright (as 17-pt dogs), losing by just three. That's one of three wins by five points or less so far for the Rebels. Murray State, while yet to play a Power 5 team, has scored at least 73 points in every game but one, that being the disaster that occurred vs. Evansville. Ole Miss has covered only four times this season, twice in losses where they were the underdogs and twice as a fave of 4.5 pts or less. The number is too high here. 10* Murray State |
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12-14-16 | UC-Santa Barbara +30 v. UCLA | 62-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
8* UC Santa Barbara (10:30 ET): On paper, this shapes up as a colossal mismatch and there's no way I can stump for UCSB to win this game straight up. But at some point, the market has to run some "interference" and that's what I believe will take place here as the Gauchos' 0-5 ATS record should be remedied by what will certainly be the largest spread they'll face all season. Of course, there's a reason for this spread and the reason happens to be UCLA is unbeaten and rolling. The Bruins are 10-0 SU, ranked #2 in the country and have covered the spread in each of their last seven games. But they're due for a bit of an "off night" at least once, right? After high-profile games against Kentucky and Michigan, I'l call for that "off night" to take place here. Note that in three of UCSB's five lined games, they have been the betting favorite. That includes Sunday's 77-68 loss to San Diego where they were 2.5-pt chalk on the road. Missing on 18 of 23 three-point attempts, plus going just 9 of 17 from the FT line did the Gauchos no favors in that one, especially w/ the Toreros making 12 three-point FG's and making over 90% of their own FT attempts. Going from a road favorite to near 30-pt underdog is quite the swing here for UCSB and while this is a really tough opponent, it's not like they haven't faced some strong competition. Already this season, they have played at both SMU and USC, the latter of whom is also still undefeated (though not nearly as strong as UCLA). Yes, UCSB's lone win thus far came against a non-DI school. But I believe they'll compete here. At some point, UCLA HAS to cool off from three-point range. Right now, they are shooting an unsustainable 47.1% from behind the arc and Saturday vs. Michigan saw them go 15 of 24 from there and shoot 67.2% overall from the field!! In seven of 10 games, this team has now scored at least 97 points. Again, this cannot possibly continue. One thing I would worry about if I were a Bruins fan is defense as opponents are also shooting 40% from 3-pt range against them here at Pauley Pavillion. It was a 50-50 game (literally, that was the score) at halftime Saturday vs. Michigan. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points here. 8* UC Santa Barbara |
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12-14-16 | Pistons -5 v. Mavs | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (8:35 ET): Off an embarrassing loss (to Philadelphia!), I expect the Pistons to bounce back in a major way this evening as they face the team w/ the worst record in the league. That would be Dallas, whose fall from grace has been swift and harsh in 2016. The days of Dirk Nowitzki leading an efficient offense here are long gone and in fact Nowitzki isn't even playing these days. The Mavs have won their last two home games, both as small underdogs, but those came against subpar foes. One was Indiana, a situation where I actually was ON Dallas. The other was their last time out, arguably the best performance of the season when they blew out Denver 112-92. A repeat of the last game - for either team here - is unlikely. For awhile, the Mavs had the least efficient offense in the entire league. They've worked their way up to 27th, but Monday's effort was definitely a surprise as six players scored in double figures en route to the team posting a season-high for most points in a half (65). But I am not buying that performance as the start of anything permanent. Not only is this team last in points per game (93.5), they're also last in rebounds and 29th in assists. So, yeah, they're really bad. An undrafted rookie, Dorian-Finney Smith, is seeing time as a starter currently. Again, we've seen a couple upsets from this team lately, but those came against teams worse than the Pistons. Dallas is also 0-4 SU/ATS this season after scoring 105+ points the previous game. Detroit is a team better than its record. I say that because they're an unfortunate 0-3 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That's tied for the most losses w/o a win in that situation in the entire league. Now it wasn't a close game at all when they lost to the Sixers 97-79 on Sunday (as 12-pt road favorites), but that was one of those dreaded early Sunday start times that always seem to favor the home side. As I said earlier, coming off such an embarrassing defeat, I expect SVG to have his team ready to go in this one. I just can't see the Pistons losing to two of the worst teams in the league, back to back, even on the road. They are 23-8 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8 * Detroit |
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12-14-16 | UC-Davis v. North Dakota State -9.5 | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* North Dakota State (8:00 ET): North Dakota State is a university known for football and this Saturday will see the Bison square off w/ James Madison in the FCS semifinals. But it's the school's basketball team that I'm interested in tonight as they're at home, off a home loss. The 74-56 home loss to in-state rival North Dakota exactly one week ago dropped the Bison to 0-5 at the betting window on the still young season and was the second time they lost outright as favorites. But tonight in Fargo, I see them bouncing back in a major way against poor Cal Davis, who was the victim of my 10* Game of the Week selection on Saturday when they lost at Cal 86-61, the third consecutive time they've tasted defeat. Lay the points here. It's hard to envision what Cal Davis might have left in the tank here. This is their third straight road game to start December and, in fact, 10 of their 11 games this season have been played on the road or at neutral sites! In my analysis Saturday, I spoke of the Aggies' propensity to turn the ball over too much and how they were subpar at both ends of the court. Nothing I saw in Berkeley changed my mind. They turned it over a season-high 21 times against Cal and shot a woeful 17 of 42 on two-point attempts. Going into halftime, it was a 39-18 game and whether or not Cal would cover the 17-pt spot was the only question. Did I mention the Aggies also allowed the Bears to shoot 56.5% from the field? NDSU has dropped three of four and this will be the final non-conference home game before Summit League play begins. With a three-game road trip looming, which includes a game at Arkansas, it's really critical for the Bison to win here to build some "momentum." (hate that word!). Fortunately, UC Davis should be a willing "dance partner." These teams met in LY's season opener and it was NDSU winning on the road, 79-71, as three-point chalk (actually trailed by six at halftime). I think the combination of a week off + looking to atone for a home loss has the Bison ready to go here. They are giving up just 63.8 PPG this season and have covered three of the last four times they've played w/ five plus days rest. 10* North Dakota State |
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12-13-16 | Morehead State +2.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Morehead State (9:05 ET): My, oh my, what a curious line this is. We have the home team (Eastern Washington), winners of six straight, laying just the "token" three points to our side, which has lost six straight. If you think something is "rotten in Denmark" here, you're not alone. A clear trap has been set here by the oddsmakers and it's one that I, personally, will not be falling for. Note that while EWU has won its last six games, two of those (against the same opponent!) have come in double overtime, another in just single OT plus and two more were decided by six points or less. Save for the last game, a 103-76 win over non-lined Great Falls, this has been one of the least dominant six-game win streaks that I can recall. Take the points. The team that Eastern Washington beat twice in double overtime, in a 12-day span mind you, is Seattle. The first occasion took place on 11.22. The game saw EWU tie the game up on a three-pointer w/ less than six seconds to go in both regulation and the 1st OT. The second time around, this time at Seattle (on 12.4), saw them have to rally back from a 14-pt deficit in the second half. The Eagles also had to rally from a halftime deficit to defeat Denver in OT here at home on 11.27. "Way back" on 11.21, they benefited from 34 FT attempts and a career game from Bogdan Bliznyuk to beat Bryant by only four. Free throws were again key in a six-point win over San Francisco on 11.27 as the Eagles were 23 of 26 from the charity stripe while the Dons were just 14 of 22. That game also saw EWU have to rally from a seven-point halftime deficit. So, what I'm saying is that this team is extraordinarily lucky to be 7-2 SU right now. Morehead State would obviously "kill" to have that record, but I see more positive things on the horizon for these Eagles tonight. There's a bit of controversy here as HC Sean Woods (former player at Kentucky) is still suspended as an investigation takes place over his treatment of players. But the real issue for Morehead State has been their opponents simply can't miss from three-point range. Their last two opponents, Purdue and Lipscomb, have combined to 30 of 55 (54.5%) from behind the arc! That's insane. (Note the Eagles had beaten Lipscomb earlier in the year). That doesn't even include ridiculously hot shooting games from Pitt and Evansville either. This can't all be blamed on the Morehead State defense either as they are quite good at forcing steals (8.8 per game, which is 24th in the country) and have a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio, which leads their conference (OVC). This was pegged to be one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley this season and I see them going to Cheney and picking up a road win. 10* Morehead State |
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12-12-16 | Jacksonville State v. Maryland -13.5 | Top | 66-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Maryland (7:00 ET): To me at least, this is a shockingly low number for a team that still has only 1 loss to be laying against such an inferior foe. I actually played against Maryland in their lone loss of the season, which came back on November 29th, to Pitt, 73-59 (were 4.5-pt favorites). In my analysis for that game, I did mention how the Terps' unbeaten run was somewhat living on "borrowed time" considering they'd posted several close wins to start the year, two of them by exactly one point. Immediately after the Pitt loss, they posted another (71-70 over Oklahoma State), which ironically I was on. Since then, they've won by double digits over both Howard and St. Peter's. I see that being the case here again tonight vs. overmatched Jacksonville State. Lay the points. Whomever handles Jacksonville State's schedule must be part sadist. Either that, or the school is simply trying to rack up frequent flyer miles. This will be the Gamecocks' 11th game of the season and 10th away from home! Furthermore, they'll be playing nothing but "true" road games from now until the end of the calendar year. The current trek began w/ a three-point win over Alabama State on 11.29 (same day Maryland suffered its only loss). Since then, they've lost at Samford and LA Monroe, both times by five points or less. While those were close games, the step up in class here is rather immense. Shockingly, this spread is almost identical to the one JSU faced when taking on Tulsa, a team I rate seven points worse than Maryland! Yes, the Gamecocks won that first game outright, but again, this will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date. Fatigue could certainly be a factor for the Gamecocks here as well. The loss at LA Monroe took place Saturday and that game went into overtime. Maryland also played Saturday, but that was at home and they were not tested (never trailed!). Yes, center Damonte Dodd is out here w/ a knee injury, but that should not affect this game. Leading scorer Melo Trimble has found support in the form of a pair of freshman - Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter. Keep in mind that the Terps led by as many as 25 in the second half Saturday before clearly taking their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 10* Maryland |
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12-11-16 | Pepperdine +19 v. USC | Top | 67-93 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): Entering play on Sunday, there are seven teams in the country still undefeated. KenPom, a far more reliable ranking system than the pollsters, has five of them in the top 20 (only Villanova cracks the Top 10!). The other two are South Carolina and USC, who are tied for the fewest number of wins among the unbeatens (8) and no one is really taking seriously. While USC is unlikely to fall at home Sunday night, their unbeaten record sure does have them overvalued as they host Pepperdine. This is a bit of a tricky spot for the Trojans as they've been off for the last week (last game was on 12.3) and won't play again until 12.17. Seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Take the points. Pepperdine isn't likely to scare anyone being that they're currently riding a four-game losing streak, but the Waves can be competitive. They've proven that by cashing all four times they've been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the previous two seasons. They are about to enter a very tough stretch of games as Wednesday's loss at Long Beach State marked the beginning of a six-game road trip that will take them to the end of the year. Aside from a somewhat embarrassing loss to Portland State (at home) earlier this month, it's not like the Waves have been drastically underperforming expectations. This marks the sixth game in a row that they will be an underdog. They do hold a neutral site win over Ark-Little Rock back on 11.22. The last time we saw USC, they beat BYU 91-84 at Staples Center. The game marked their first w/o starting forward Bennie Boatright, who will miss the next six weeks due to a knee injury. Boatright is a key loss as he averages 10.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. It should be pointed out that the Trojans lost the rebounding battle vs. BYU. Though BYU missed 18 of its 23 three-point attempts, they were still able to score 84 points, including 52 in the second half. So Pepperdine should have no issues scoring here and given the large pointspread, that's a winning combination as far as the betting window is concerned. The Waves are dealing w/ injuries as well, but have a 22 PPG scorer in Lamond Murray Jr. The team is shooting better than 40% from three-point range as well. 8* Pepperdine |
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12-11-16 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans were somewhat humiliated last night, losing to the Clippers 133-105. It was a close game, at least for a half (NO trailed only 61-55 heading into the break), but Chris Paul's virtuoso performance of 20 pts, 20 assists and zero turnovers proved to be too much. It should also be pointed out that Anthony Davis, who is averaging a league-high 38.1 minutes per game, was rested. It was the team's fifth consecutive loss (also 0-5 ATS) and seventh in the last eight games. This stretch is reminiscent to the start of the season when they began 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS. In between, however, they were 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. With Davis expected back in the lineup Sunday, I like the team to at least cover, if not snap the losing streak outright. Not sure Phoenix should be favored here. Yes, they did just win out in LA (over the Lakers) Friday night in a nationally televised affair. But I suspect that rather high profile 119-115 victory is the cause for this line, something I would dub an "overreaction." It should be pointed out that not only are the Suns 0-4 ATS this season when favored, they have lost all four games outright! They are still w/o TJ Warren (concussion). Coming off a SU win as a dog this year, the team is 1-5 SU and ATS. Three different bench players scored in double figures against the Lakers, something that simply cannot be counted on a game by game basis. According to my own power rankings, the Suns remain one of the worst teams in the league as they are 22nd in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. They give up 113 PPG, most in the Western Conference. Though beaten badly last night, it stands to reason that the Pelicans should bounce back w/ Davis returning to the lineup. Again, despite being severely short-handed, they hung tough w/ the talented Clippers for a half. The 133 pts allowed last night were a season-high and can directly be tied to Davis' absence as the team actually ranks a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency overall. Also possibly rejoining the lineup tonight are Jrue Holliday and E'Twaun Moore. Having actually dropped three in a row to the Suns, one of those earlier this year, this is a bit of a revenge game for the Pelicans as well. 10* New Orleans |
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12-10-16 | UC-Davis v. California -17.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
10* California (10:30 ET): Since winning and covering their season opener, Cal has has its issues at the betting window. But help comes tonight in the form of UC Davis, a team outside the top 250 in the country. While Cal has struggled to cover games (2-7 ATS), they are 7-2 straight up, including a perfect 6-0 here in Berkeley. Off a loss to Seton Hall Wednesday (in Hawaii), I anticipate they'll be looking to blow the doors off UC Davis here and the Aggies should be pretty compliant given a 1-33 SU mark as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points. Cal did lead Seton Hall at the half Wednesday (34-31), but overall it was a poor shooting night, especially from three-point range where they were just 3 of 16. Cuonzo Martin's team entered the break having shot 52.4% overall from the field, so it was clearly the second half that cost them. Back at home, I imagine we'll see better shooting tonight. One thing that we can count on w/ the Bears is their defense, which is permitting just 60.0 PPG. Only one opponent, San Diego State, has topped 65 points against them this season. That's pretty impressive and thus you would expect that they would have covered more games. They did beat Princeton in the Pearl Harbor Invitational, holding them to only 51 points. This remains a top 50 team nationally. UC Davis has been off for a week, but this will be their second consecutive road game. They lost at Idaho, 68-66 as 6.5-point dogs, last Saturday as that game was decided at the buzzer. They did win their only other road game to date, outright, as they upset Santa Clara 63-58 as 5.5-pt dogs back on November 12th. But this shapes up as the Aggies' most difficult game to date. Cal is very good at forcing teams to take tough two-point shots and UC Davis is shooting only 46.4% on two-point attempts this year, which ranks 250th nationally. The Aggies are below par on both ends of the floor compared to the national average an also have a propensity to turn the ball over way too much. Led by preseason All-American Ivan Rabb, Cal simply has too much height for this overmatched opponent and don't forget 7' junior center Kingsley Okorah. The Bears have been dealing w/ numerous injuries so far, which explains them falling short of the oddsmakers expectations, but head into this contests as healthy as they've been all season. For UC Davis, who has played 10 games total, this is their ninth on the road. 10* California |
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12-10-16 | Heat +10.5 v. Bulls | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:05 ET): The Heat were blown out last night in Cleveland, but I see them bouncing back tonight in Chicago and earning themselves at least a cover. The Bulls are in prime letdown mode here as they're fresh off an upset of San Antonio on TNT Thursday night. They were three-point underdogs there, but have now shifted to large favorites at the betting window, a role that I do not believe suits them well. As a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, they are just 6-12 ATS the L3 seasons. When these teams met in Miami exactly one month ago, the line was a pick 'em. Though Chicago won that game by three, I do not believe the large shift in the spread is justified for this rematch. Take the points. Miami has actually won and covered each of its last three visits to the Windy City. Obviously, this is a rebuilding year on South Beach, something that was readily apparent by looking at the lineup Coach "Spo" trotted out last night in Cleveland. But not every opponent is going to be as strong as the Cavaliers, who had way too much firepower. It also didn't help that the Heat shot a season-worst 34.8 percent from the floor. Their best player, Hassan Whiteside, was held to just eight points on 4 of 10 shooting and wound up getting benched. At the same time, the Cavs gashed them for 55.4 percent shooting. I expect the shooting percentages to be far closer tonight. Since the start of November, Chicago has shot better than 50% from the floor in only one game. That was against the defensively inept Lakers. Chicago has beaten both Cleveland and San Antonio in the last eight days, but lost three straight times in between, including a blowout at the hands of the team w/ the worst record in the league (Dallas). They've been a very inconsistent team. Given that both of these squads rank in the bottom third in pace of play, we shouldn't expect a ton of possessions tonight and thus the likelihood of a blowout decreases. Over the L30 days, the Bulls have posted just two double digit victories and one was against Philadelphia. There's also the matter of their 9-20 ATS record (L3 seasons) when coming off a SU win as a dog. 10* Miami |
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12-10-16 | Michigan +9.5 v. UCLA | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* Michigan (8:00 ET): UCLA is one of eight remaining unbeaten teams in the country. Ironically, I don't think any of them, save for #1 Villanova, belong in the top 10! UCLA is currently ranked #2 by the pollsters, but I don't know of anyone besides them who thinks this is the second best team in the country. This will be the Bruins' first game since their upset of then-#1 Kentucky last Saturday and while a week can be a long time, I still view this as a letdown spot in Pauley Pavilion. Michigan has lost twice, but both times were as favorites and one of them was by just three points. The other was their first "true" road game (at South Carolina), but I believe John Beilein will have his Wolverines "ready to go" Saturday night in primetime. Michigan is coming off a 53-50 win over Texas in Ann Arbor on Tuesday. They were 10-pt faves there, which shows how much the market was respecting them. Curiously, this Wolverines team is nowhere near as sharp-shooting as past Beilein editions. I can assure you this is not a misprint, but the Maize and Blue were an all-time horrific 19.2% from the floor against South Carolina, which explains that loss. They shot only 41.2% against Texas, which was their next lowest shooting percentage to date. The team is shooting just 34.9% from three-point range, which would be the lowest percentage for any Wolverines team since 2009-10. I expect these shooting numbers to drastically improve moving forward as almost 45% of their total attempts from the field are from behind the arc. Sooner rather than later, those shots will start to go down. Meanwhile, UCLA is due to regress as they're currently hitting an unsustainable 45.4% from three-point range. The win over Kentucky was not w/o some ugliness as Lonzo Ball was just 2 of 8 from behind the arc and committed five turnovers in the first half. With six straight covers, the last one being an outright win as 10.5-point pups, it's only natural for the oddsmakers to have the Bruins overvalued coming into this tilt. Michigan is dangerous as a dog, a role they have yet to find themselves this season, until now. 8* Michigan |
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12-10-16 | La Salle v. Georgetown -3.5 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
10* Georgetown (2:00 ET): This game is being contested in Miami, FL as part of the Hoophall Invitational. For LaSalle, it's their second straight Big East opponent. In non-tourney action, they took on city (Philly) rival Villanova Tuesday and actually played the #1 team in the nation pretty tough, losing only 89-79 as 17.5-pt dogs. Coming off a high-profile game such as that, Georgetown may not have the Explorers' full attention and that could prove problematic. With a shaky ATS mark already, the Hoyas barely escaped Elon (won by 3) their last game. But that was on Sunday and I figure JTIII will have his team very focused for this neutral site affair. Lay the short number here. Thus far, G'town has covered only one game, a 65-61 upset of Oregon (were +9) on 11.21. They've been big money-burners when favored, going 0-4 ATS including early season losses at home to both Maryland and Arkansas State. At one point, they stood at only 2-4 SU, but the team has since rattled off three consecutive victories. The disappointing records - SU and ATS - have led to a bit of a reevaluation in the marketplace and right now I believe it to be a great time to "buy low" on them. One thing that the Hoyas do well is defend the three-point line as opponents are shooting only 30.6% from distance against them this year. That's key facing a LaSalle squad that's currently making an unsustainable 41.6% from behind the arc. LaSalle played Villanova very tough on Tuesday and you have to wonder what they'll have left in the tank here. A flurry of late three-pointers had them down only four, which was also the halftime deficit, late in the game. But the Explorers eventually wilted and lost by 10. While this team can certainly score, I'd be concerned about a defense which is permitting 80.4 PPG on 48.7% shooting. Opponents are making almost 40% of their three-point tries against LaSalle. Georgetown unexpectedly struggled in its last game on the glass, but w/ Isaac Copeland now back in the fold, I see them dominating that department here against the Explorers. The five days off should do the Hoyas some good and I'll point out that they've gone 31-2 straight up under Thompson vs. opponents giving up 77+ points per game. 10* Georgetown |
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12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavs fall from grace has been rather precipitous, but I'm not sure they should be catching this many points at home against a subpar foe like Indiana. Yes, Dallas has the worst record in the league (4-17 SU) and are 29th in offensive efficiency. But they've at least been competitive here at home, losing by an average of just 5.4 PPG thus far. As you might have guessed though, this is more a play AGAINST the Pacers, who are just 3-7 SU and ATS on the road and not really worthy of being favored. Sure, Indiana is coming off a blowout win at Phoenix Wednesday night, but this will be their fifth straight road game and fourth in six nights. Dallas, theoretically, should be highly motivated after being humiliated here at home by Sacramento on Wednesday. Take the points. Making this line all the more curious is the fact that Indiana was favored by only 5.5 earlier in the year over the Mavs and that was at home. Granted, they won and Dallas has fallen harder and faster than even the biggest pessimist would have thought. But still, this looks like an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. That first meeting was actually the season opener for both teams and it went to overtime. Dallas put up an unconscionable 48 three-pointers in the contest, but Indiana was far more efficient from behind the arc, hitting 10 of 18. I do not envision the Pacers matching that kind of shooting as they were also better than 50% overall from the field. For the year, they are shooting just 45.5% from the field and 34.4% from three-point range. The Pacers, like the Mavs, are in the bottom third in the league in offensive efficiency. The Pacers poor defense will also serve to help Dallas here. On the road, the Pacers are giving up a horrible 115.7 PPG. Some of that was them getting torched for 142 by Golden State on Monday. But they also allowed 131 to Portland last week. While this is the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, it is the Mavs' fourth consecutive home game. So the situation definitely favors them. Again, this team was embarrassed here two night ago and I can only assume they'll be eager to atone for it. 10* Dallas |
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12-09-16 | Longwood +33.5 v. Creighton | Top | 58-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Longwood (7:30 ET): Sure, Longwood is not even one of the top 325 teams in America? Do you even know what conference they hail from? (Answer: Big South). Do you even know their nickname>? (Answer: Lancers). The answers to those questions are actually quite irrelevant because this is just a horrible spot for still unbeaten Creighton. The Blue Jays are just two days removed from an in-state tussle w/ Nebraska where they clearly brought their 'A-Game.' Of course, Nebraska really did not as the 'Huskers shot just 32.4% from the floor in the 77-62 final (Creighton was favored by four). Will Longwood win this game? Obviously not. But this is an absolute boatload of points to take going against what should be a very disinterested favorite. Longwood rarely plays a lined game, but they have one under their belt in 2016. As 18-point underdogs, they ended up covering @ SF Austin, losing by only six. Obviously this is a big step up in class here, but the Lancers have generally been competitive. Their only "bad" loss came by 22 at home to Maine, which was the season opener. They are coming off a loss to a previously winless James Madison team last Saturday, but I imagine the players will be very excited to take on this challenge. This is their first time playing a ranked opponent since Georgetown in 2012. They have three double-digit scorers, led by Darrion Allen (15.7 PPG). No matter how "outgunned" you may think Longwood is here, I guarantee they shoot the ball better than Nebraska did on Wednesday. The Cornhuskers missed 19 of 22 three-point attempts, for crying out loud! Creighton has an eight-day break after this game, so don't be shocked if they're already peeking ahead to that. There has been only one time in the L3 seasons that the Blue Jays have been asked to lay more than 30 points at the betting window and not surprisingly, they failed to cover the spot. This is just an insane spread, regardless of matchup, and I keep coming back to the fact this is their second game in three days and clearly the less interesting of the two. Total letdown game for Creighton, who will not be interested in winning by the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. 8* Longwood |
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12-08-16 | Texas-Arlington +14 v. St. Mary's | Top | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
10* UT-Arlington (10:00 ET): The number of unbeatens in College Basketball was reduced to nine last night w/ both Butler & TCU losing. Of the nine remaining, #1 Villanova (defending Nat'l Champs) is clearly the strongest. After the Wildcats, we find a group of teams that likely fall between the 10th and 20th best teams in the country right now. One of them is St. Mary's. Unbeaten starts are nothing new for the Gaels; last year the team also started 6-0 SU. But then they lost their next game at Cal. For the record, it should be pointed out that SMU has played the fewest # of games of any remaining unbeaten. Tonight, they host a worthy adversary in UT-Arlington, who happens to be one of the top mid-majors in the country. Take the points. The Mavericks of UT-Arlington are a formidable foe here as they have already won outright at Texas, as 7.5-pt underdogs, back on 11.29. The preseason choice to win the Sun Belt, UT Arlington has thrived in the underdog role through the years, going 44-22 ATS including 16-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Already they're 3-1 ATS this year w/ not only the outright win at Texas, but also at Fordham as well. They also covered a game at Arkansas. So don't look for the team to be intimidated at all by playing the #12 ranked team in the country. This is already the Mavs' seventh road game and the start of their third three-game trip. So they're battle tested. Be on the lookout for SBC Player of the Year Kevin Hervey, who is averaging 13.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. While UT Arlington just played two nights ago and St. Mary's has been off since 11.30, I do not see that being a significant edge for the favorite here. It's not as if UT Arlington was tested on Tuesday; they won by 50 over a D-III school (Texas-Dallas). Also, don't be surprised if St. Mary's is perhaps a bit rusty coming off the week-plus break. This is just the second time in the last three seasons that they've had 7+ days off between games and they failed to cover in the only previous instance. While the Gaels have already beaten the likes of Dayton and Stanford, a case can be made that UT Arlington is on par w/ those teams. Yet they're getting a far more generous spread. 10* UT Arlington |
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12-08-16 | Blazers +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 86-88 | Push | 0 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers have been a massive disappointment this season, particularly on the defensive end. They currently rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up almost 1.1 points per possession. Last night saw their 3-0 SU/ATS win streak halted as they allowed 115 points in Milwaukee. But tonight, they take on a Grizzlies team that's not known for scoring in bunches and is playing w/o Mike Conley. While the Grizz have yet to lose since their starting PG went down, they've been fortunate to draw some pretty weak opponents. Orlando, the Lakers, New Orleans and Philadelphia were the last four opponents and all four wins have been by five points or less. I like Portland here. "We're not a very good team right now" is what HC Terry Stotts had to say about the Blazers following last night's loss in Milwaukee. Things really came apart in the second half as they allowed the Bucks to score 64 points. For the game, Milwaukee shot nearly 52% from the floor and was 10 of 24 from three-point range. That performance came on the heels of some improved defensive efforts against Indiana, Miami and Chicago. Fortunately for Portland here, Memphis is short-handed and I believe simply lacks the capability to exploit the defensive shortcomings. In addition to being w/o Conley, the Grizzlies don't have Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Brandan Wright. Zach Randolph is set to return tonight, but that's still a lot of missing pieces for one team to deal with. Portland has already beat Memphis once this year, here at the FedEx Forum, and that was when Conley was playing. What I want to specifically point to there is that it was one of the Blazers' best defensive efforts of the season. They won 100-94 by holding the Grizzlies to just 38.3% shooting overall including 6 of 26 from three-point range. If they can beat Memphis at full strength, then they should be able to beat them here. I believe that the Grizz simply lacks the firepower to keep up w/ Portland right now. They are averaging only 95.5 PPG at home this season. 10* Portland |
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12-07-16 | Creighton v. Nebraska +5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (9:00 ET): In-state bragging rights are on the line here and it's the bigger state school that finds itself in the role of home underdog for this one. While one could argue that this game "means more" to unbeaten Creighton, don't discount Nebraska's motivation in this one. Sure, the folks in Lincoln may still be more concerned with the Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee later this month. But for those inside Pinnacle Bank Arena tonight, this game looms large. Creighton is #10 in the nation and as I said earlier, still unbeaten (one of 11 remaining unbeatens in the country). The Blue Jays have had the Cornhuskers' number through the years, going 15-5 ATS, including B2B double digit wins. But I'm calling for a different end to the story tonight. Take the points. This will be Creighton's first "true" road game of the season. Granted, they don't have to go far, but it's still a hostile environment. I cannot possibly see the Bluejays' hot shooting continuing, at least at the current clip. They've shot 50% or better in every game so far and average 90.2 PPG. But the first true road game seems like a good spot for that average to dip and Nebraska is allowing only 62.5 PPG thus far, on 39.3 percent shooting. Here at home, the scoring average dips down to 53.5 PPG. Last year in Omaha, Creighton attempted 21 more free throws while the 'Huskers shot just 4 of 21 from downtown (three-point range) and that was the difference. Nebraska has definitely challenged itself this year as they played UCLA, the current #2 team in the land, and Virginia Tech. Not to mention, they had to go to Clemson as a part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge and came up just two points short there. That's three top 40 opponents away from home thus far. Creighton did beat Wisconsin early in the year, but that's their only top 60 opponent to date. Shockingly, the Bluejays are only 7-18 SU in "true" road games the previous two seasons. 8* Nebraska |
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12-07-16 | TCU v. SMU -4 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
10* SMU (8:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball and four of them are in action tonight. Perhaps the weakest of those 11 is TCU, who is actually an underdog this evening at in-state rival SMU. Despite a 16-5 ATS record vs. the Ponies, the underdog distinction is absolutely justified here for the Horned Frogs. This is a team that hardly cracks the top 50 in most rating systems, including my own. They'll be playing a "true" road game for only the second time all year (won close over UNLV back on 11.25). SMU has won 37 of its past 40 home games overall and has taken on the far more challenging schedule to date compared to their Texas brethren. Lay the points in this one as TCU will be handed its first loss of the season. SMU has started December w/ a pair of cupcake games, beating CS-Bakersfield and Delaware State here in Dallas. Against the former, they did not shoot the ball well at all, in fact they finished the game at just 31.8% from the field. But they allowed only 43 points on 29.8% shooting, then had far less difficulty w/ Delaware State on Sunday. This will obviously be a stiffer test tonight, but getting the game here at Moody Coliseum is huge. They've won 19 straight here over non-conference competition. Four different Mustangs are averaging double figures in scoring and this team also boasts the 6th best rebounding margin in the country. They did beat TCU LY in Ft. Worth, 75-70, albeit failing to cover as 6.5-pt chalk. But a shorter number at home seems like a real bargain to me. I'm just not a buyer on this TCU team as they've yet to play anyone of real substance. Sure, they did beat Washington twice, but the Huskies hardly crack the top 90 teams nationally. Their toughest opponent to date may very well have been Illinois State. Meanwhile, SMU has taken on the likes of Pitt, Michigan, USC and Boise State, all away from home. Even w/ the win at UNLV, the Horned Frogs are still a lousy 3-18 SU last 21 "true" road games. We've seen similar starts from this program before, only for things to unravel once the conference portion of the schedule hits. Once again, TCU's weak non-conference slate isn't fooling me. 10* SMU |
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12-06-16 | Bradley v. Ball State -7 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Revenge alert! Ball State lost at Bradley last year, 54-53 as two-point favorites. As you can ascertain from that final score, it was a pretty miserable night shooting the ball for both teams. This year, the Cardinals get to play host and have the additional motivation of being of a loss, here at home no less. They fell Saturday to IUPUI, as six-point favorites, 73-62. As was the case w/ the play on Rider last night, I don't see our side dropping B2B home games. Bradley is also off a home loss here, theirs more severe, as they fell 91-69 to Nevada. The Braves have pulled off a few upsets this year, but not here. Lay the points. Ball State is actually just 1-2 SU here in Muncie, losing outright as the betting favorite twice. The first came to Indiana State back on November 15th. Then there was Saturday's setback. The lone home win for the Cardinals so far was against a non-D1 foe (Indiana-Kokomo). That being said, poor shooting was to blame for both home losses. I see the Cards shooting the ball better here against a Bradley team that just gave up 91 points on 55.6% shooting. Saturday's loss was a tough one for BSU as they led IUPUI 36-29 at halftime and led by 11 w/ 14:37 to go. They shot just 33.3% in the second half and scored only four points in the final four minutes. They were 3 of 10 from the FT line w/ only two of those attempts coming after halftime. Bottom line is the Cardinals know they let one slip away Saturday and should come out highly motivated. Poor shooting was again the culprit in LY's loss at Bradley. Ironically, Bradley shot worse though. The Braves were held to 31.9% from the floor, including 5 of 20 from three-point range. But making nine more free throws than BSU did was the difference in a one-point game. Bradley's game Saturday vs. Nevada was a part of the Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley Challenge and saw the Braves fall behind by 20 at halftime. They never led in what was a very one-sided affair. Bradley has won just 3 of its last 25 "true" road games, one of those wins being an upset LW at Eastern Illinois. I wouldn't look for them to make it two in a row. 10* Ball State |
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12-05-16 | Siena v. Rider +4 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
10* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider didn't play its first home game until Thursday and they promptly lost it 76-67 as 3.5-point favorites to Fairfield. Tonight, they host a Siena team that beat Fairfield, 80-73 as 7.5-pt home favorites, just two days later. Thus, most will naturally favor the Saints in this MAAC battle, but not I as Rider has some revenge to exact here, plus Siena may be a little road-weary from playing its sixth "true" road game since November 15th. They're 0-5 SU so far, so I see no reason why they should be the favorite here, especially considering they've given up an average of 83.4 PPG in those five losses. Take the points. Rider had no answer for Fairfield's Tyler Nelson, who went for 38 points last Thursday. Needless to say, it was a career night for Nelson as he made six three-pointers, all 10 free throws and was 11 of 20 from the field. While the Broncs did trail the entire second half, they had managed to close the gap to five before free throws put the game away. Meanwhile, Siena was able to beat the Stags in their MAAC opener as one of their players (Nico Clareth) had a career night w/ 33 points. Nelson scored only 23 for Fairfield this time. Note that the Saints actually gave away a 16-pt lead in the second half, allowing the Stags to score 16 straight points. Something to note here is Siena was only 9 of 19 from the free throw line and those kind of numbers can cost a team moving forward. Siena won both matchups LY and has beaten Rider three straight times overall. The Broncs were embarrassed last year here in Lawrenceville, losing by 20, and given that they just dropped the home opener, I expect a real emphasis placed on the result here. I was impressed that Rider was able to win three of five on the road to start the year and they should be the fresher team here, not just because they've had two additional days to prepare, but also due to the fact they've played two fewer games overall. The Broncs are also a strong 14-3 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* Rider |
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12-04-16 | Davidson v. College of Charleston +4 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
10* Coll of Charleston (4:00 ET): Davidson rolls into Charleston pretty hot as the Wildcats have won (and covered) four straight following a 78-57 beatdown of Mercer on Tuesday, their first "true" road tilt of the season. The lone loss on the resume of Bob McKillop's team was to Clemson, back in the second game of the season where they allowed 95 points. Meanwhile, Charleston has responded well after losing three straight, posting B2B wins over USC Upstate and Navy. Two of those three losses did take place at home (other at Villanova), but the Cougars are getting a few too many points, in my opinion, to pass up on here. It looks as if the line is climbing as well, so you may even want to wait a little bit before playing! Take the points. This is a double revenge spot for the home team as they've lost each of the last two seasons to Davidson, including by one on the road in 2015. They were 15-point road dogs LY. This was an old conference rivalry before Davidson ditched the SoCon for greener pastures. Last year's game featured a total of 19 lead changes and 11 ties and was a brutal defeat for the Cougars, who led 81-76 late (under 4 minutes to play), but allowed the Wildcats to score the game's final six points. So, what I'm saying is that motivation will not be lacking from the home side here. While I am a bit worried about Charleston and its shooting percentage going up against a Davidson team that's allowed it's six opponents to shoot only 37% from the field, the Cougars will not be intimidated here considering they've already faced the likes of Wake Forest and, both of whom are bigger and more athletic than Davidson. I think that Charleston is deserving of more respect than Mercer was and given the virtually identical lines, that doesn't seem to be the case. Granted, an adjustment had to be made after Davidson blew Mercer out, but I think the oddsmakers and now public are overreacting. 10* Coll of Charleston |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State v. Maryland +1 | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Maryland (9:00 ET): The Terps were embarrassed earlier this week, losing 73-59 to Pitt here in College Park. I went against them in what was their first loss of the season. They have yet to cover a spread here at home (0-3 ATS), but tonight they're not getting any respect against fellow 1-loss team Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are playing their first "true" road game of the year and considering they lost to Maryland by nine last year in Stillwater (as 9-pt favorites), I do not see them getting the job done here. It was an awful first half vs. Pitt on Tuesday. I was quite happy to look at the scores and see Maryland down 45-24 at the break as the likelihood they'd come back from that kind of deficit, let alone cover as a favorite, was quite minimal. But I did like how the Terps fought back to cut that deficit to eight. They held Pitt to 26 percent shooting in the second half after allowing them to convert at a 61% clip in the first half. I think that considering this was an unbeaten team entering the week, this is a pretty extraordinary price on Maryland here at home. I realize that I was quite dismissive of the Terps' unbeaten start in my analysis of the Pitt game, but this is a great value. I have the Pokes and Pitt rated fairly evenly, so the market has overadjusted here. OSU has given up at least 85 points in four of their seven games. That includes games vs. Central Arkansas and Rogers State. Many will point to the fact the Cowboys destroyed a Georgetown team (by 27) that Maryland only beat by a single point. But, I'm not sure that matters. Besides, it was a "true" road win for the Terps over the Hoyas. OSU isn't going to be able to simply outscore Maryland, like they did to some of the lesser teams on the schedule, and they are just 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of three points or less or a pick em. Consider that each of the Cowboys last three opponents have shot 51% or better and even Rogers State was at 56.9%, unfathomable given the talent discrepancy. Maryland will bounce back big-time offensively here. 10* Maryland |
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12-03-16 | Hawks +9 v. Raptors | Top | 84-128 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Over the L2 seasons, the Hawks and Raptors have each played the role of "bridesmaid" to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. Last year was the Raptors' turn as they fell in six games to the eventual World Champs. That's better than Atlanta did in the 2015 Eastern Conf Finals (they were swept). This year has seen both teams emerge as potential contenders for the #2 spot, which Toronto currently holds thanks to a five-game win streak. Right now, it appears as if these teams are trending in very opposite directions as Atlanta has lost five in a row and eight of nine. The Raptors have not only won five straight, but covered six in a row. But these very different streaks have created a situation where there's now a ton of value on the Hawks. Take the points. Atlanta was destroyed last night, at home, by Detroit. The final score was 121-85 and that was a game the Hawks were 1.5-pt favorites. So, what happened? Well, the Pistons were red-hot from the floor, making 17 three-pointers, and the Hawks were not. Part of that was being w/o leading scorer Paul Milsap again, but the rest of the team was just 36.4% from the floor, including 25% from three-point range. Dwight Howard attempted only four shots and had just two points. He was called for five fouls, which didn't help. After missing 10 straight shots in the second quarter, the Hawks fell behind by 19 points. Needless to say, tonight can't possibly go as poorly. The Raptors are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Hawks, going 3-1 each season. While Atlanta was blown out last night, Toronto destroyed the Lakers by 33. It was their third straight double digit win, but those came against the Sixers, Grizzlies and Lakers. The Raptors can't possibly continue this hot shooting as they've been 54% or higher from the floor in each of the L3 games. The Lakers shot just 34% last night. The back to back scenario has yet to bother the Hawks this season as they've gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in it, winning outright four times. They are also 6-1 ATS this year vs. teams w/ a winning record. They are still #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and I refuse to believe they are as bad as they've looked of late. 8* Atlanta |
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12-03-16 | Georgia Tech +5 v. Tennessee | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
8* Georgia Tech (1:00 ET): The Yellow Jackets are off just their second loss of the year. The final score at Penn State Tuesday was remarkably similar to their first loss, which took place back on 11.18 at home vs. Ohio U. They fell 67-60 in Happy Valley, as six point underdogs. (They were 3.5-pt home dogs in the 67-61 loss to Ohio). I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm" for GT getting points as that's the scenario Saturday afternoon in Knoxville against Tennessee. The Vols have not played since Maui, a tournament which ended before Thanksgiving. They've played just five games overall and their lone win on the Island was against the host, D-II Chaminade. Their only other win this year was a wild 103-94 affair vs. Appalachian State. I believe the better team is getting points here. Georgia Tech shot just 36.4% against Penn State, yet was able to stay in the game virtually throughout. It was a two-point game w/ just two minutes to go. Three-point shooting (7 of 16) was able to keep them in the game. Getting to the free throw line only seven times didn't help. Not coincidentally, the Yellow Jackets' worst two shooting games of the year are also their two losses. With Tennessee giving up an average of 80 PPG thus far, I feel the Jackets should be able to put plenty of points on the board today. The three-point line could be huge here. I already mentioned that Georgia Tech was pretty sharp from distance last time out. Well, they also defended the arc well (Penn State missed 11 of 15 attempts). Meanwhile, Tennessee is not shooting the ball well from long range. They are at just 29% for the year, including 25.7% for the year. Therefore, it's odd that they've been able to still score so many as this is a relatively small team. Overall, the Vols are just 8-23 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons and 10-22 ATS in home games. They lost to Georgia Tech LY in Atlanta, by two, as seven-point underdogs. The line has shifted significantly in one year's time, too much I believe. Take the points. 8* Georgia Tech |
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12-02-16 | Wizards v. Spurs -9.5 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Greg Popovich may be ornery, but if he were to state that his team is no better than third right now in the Western Conference, he would not be incorrect. But as much as the early returns on the Spurs' 2016-17 campaign have been a little disappointing (at least compared to those of the Warriors and Clippers), this remains one of the best teams in the league. Sure, they dumped a game to Orlando (here at home!) earlier in the week and then followed that up by barely beating a terrible Dallas team on the road. But the ornery Popovich, I believe, will have his team ready to go tonight against Washington, a team in far worse shape right now than San Antonio. Lay the points. If you want to talk disappointments, how about the Wizards? Scott Brooks inherited what most believed was a pretty talented roster, led by John Wall and Bradley Beal, but the Wiz are going nowhere fast. Currently, they are 6-11 SU after "giving one away" at Oklahoma City Wednesday night. That was an overtime game and I see the loss being difficult to get over. They are now 1-5 ATS as an underdog and just 1-6 SU on the road. They've not fared well against teams w/ winning records either and their last three wins came against Sacramento, Orlando and Phoenix. A big problem is they are giving up 105.7 PPG and that number goes even higher on the road. This despite playing at a much slower place compared to last year. Washington has not won in San Antonio since 1999 and I wouldn't look for that streak to come to a halt anytime soon. Keep in mind that these teams have already met once this year and the Spurs won comfortably in D.C., 112-100 as 5.5-pt favorites. Using that line as a baseline for tonight's pointspread, you would then figure San Antonio would be asked to lay double digits. I wouldn't be surprised if the number got there as I don't think bettors will put much stock into the fact this team has already lost four times at home. I also put little to no stock in that as te Spurs are simply the way better team here. 8* San Antonio |
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12-02-16 | Wolves +2 v. Knicks | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Thus far, the T'wolves have been real money-burners at the betting window. Their 5-13 ATS record is a league worst and in the interest of full disclosure, if it weren't for them, my NBA record would be pretty fantastic. I admit to taking them Wednesday, in this first game of a home and home w/ the Knicks, which they promptly lost 106-104 as 3.5-point favorites. But as was the case Wednesday, I still believe Minnesota to be the better team on Friday. Sure, they aren't very good defensively, but the Knicks remain worse and are being outscored by 3.5 pts per 100 possessions. Early line movement seems to indicate the "sharps" are w/ me on this one as well. Take the points. Wednesday's game wasn't decided until Carmelo Anthony sunk the GW jumper w/ 2.3 seconds remaining. That negated an incredible effort by Karl-Anthony Towns, who led all scorers w/ 47 points and added 18 rebounds. Also, the T'wolves (for once!) closed the game strong, using a 20-3 run to tie the game up prior to Anthony's game-winner. Note that this is Minnesota's third three-game losing streak of the year. But they are a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS off the previous two, beating Orlando by 16 (on the road) and Phoenix by 13 (also on the road). Wednesday was the team's fourth loss already by four points or less. I will continue to maintain that the T'wolves are better than the record shows and better than the Knicks. New York continues to give up an average of 106.1 PPG, which is problematic when you're favored. In defensive efficiency, they are tied for 26th. I'm very surprised to see that the Knicks have covered seven of nine, but note that four of those SU wins have been by four points or less. So, what it boils down to here is the Knicks have been coming out on the right side of some close games while the opposite is true for the T'wolves. I look for that trend to reverse itself here as Minnesota is far too talented to continue losing like this. Courtney Lee is doubtful for the Knicks tonight while Joakim Noah is questionable. 10* Minnesota |
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12-01-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Cal Poly -7 | Top | 47-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
10* Cal Poly (11:00 ET): TX-San Antonio is not a good team at all; they currently rank outside of the top 300 in most projection systems. So the fact they are off a win, as five-point dogs no less, can be used against them here. Even if it means a half-hearted endorsement of a Cal Poly team I just went AGAINST not that long ago. Granted, the Mustangs sit outside the top 250 themselves and are off an unsuccessful stint in DeKalb for Northern Illinois' Thanksgiving Classic Tournament. But returning home, laying a relatively short number, should not be an issue against this weak opponent. While this is the first D-I opponent they've played in their gym, the Mustangs are 2-0 SU at home so far w/ both wins coming by double digits. The game that I went against Cal Poly was last Friday vs. Illiniois-Chicago as they were actually four-point favorites at a neutral site and ended up losing 84-71. Note that came on the heels of upsetting the tournament host (as 10-pt underdogs), two days earlier. The Mustangs did not shoot the ball well against UIC (only 38.5%) and fell into a rather sizable halftime hole that they could not climb out of. In fact, they missed 23 of 31 field goal attempts in the first half. Things were better the following day against Elon, where the Mustangs in fact had a slight halftime advantage. But attempting 14 less free throws for the game proved to be a difference maker there and helped turn a game that was tied w/ a little over four minutes remaining into a six-point loss. Still though, Cal Poly actually covered the closing line (+6.5). After allowing 52% shooting in the last two games, Cal Poly's defense should be a lot better here. I say that knowing full well that TX-San Antonio is shooting a woeful 37.4% from the field for the year, including 25.5% from three-point range. The Roadrunners have shot better than 40% in only one game all year (Prairie View A&M) and in their two wins were the beneficiaries of opponents shooting the ball even more dreadfully. One was the Prairie View A&M game (31.5%) and then last Friday, Texas State finished at just 30.0% on ALL field goal attempts (scored just 48 points). The Roadrunners are just 1-6 SU following a game where they allowed 60 or less points. 10* Cal Poly |
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12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Though Cleveland is off a loss here, just their second all year w/ LeBron James in the lineup, I'm going to trust my numbers, which suggest this should be a pick em game. Yes, the Clippers have now lost three in a row, including embarrassing setbacks to both Indiana and Brooklyn. But let us not totally disregard their strong start to the season, particularly on the defensive end where they were ranked #1 in efficiency for the first several weeks (currently #2 behind Atlanta). Meanwhile, the Cavs' defense has been somewhat suspect all year, currently ranking 15th in the league. This will be just the second time this year that LA is an underdog and I had them the first time, when they went to San Antonio and won outright. Take the points. Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, the Cavaliers have swept all four meetings w/ the Clippers. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. But this appears to be a better Clippers team, particularly on the defensive end. Though it's still a "bad" loss, don't be fooled by the 127 pts they allowed to Brooklyn as that game went to double OT (was a brutal beat for me, as I had the Under). After HC Doc Rivers was tossed from that game, I expect him to have his team highly motivated to end this three-game losing streak. Also, Blake Griffin will be back in the lineup after missing Tuesday's game. That's a big boost. This is also one of the few offenses that may be able to keep pace w/ Cleveland. In addition to ranking #2 in efficiency on the defensive end, the Clips are #5 in offense. The Cavs are #3 in offensive efficiency, but #15 on defense. Despite the great SU record, they have not been a "hit" at the betting window as their 6-9-1 ATS record ranks near the bottom of the league. That can be tied to the number of points per game they are currently allowing (103.7), which is problematic when you're favored in virtually every game. My numbers say this game should basically be a pick em, so I'll take the points here as Cleveland has struggled in B2B games. They are just 11-18 ATS since LeBron returned (two years ago) when off a double digit loss. 8* LA Clippers |
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11-30-16 | Knicks v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): One of these teams is overachieving, the other is underachieving. The former distinction belongs to a Knicks team that many in Vegas have foolishly wagered on as if they're a legitimate NBA Finals contender. They are not. Not only are they beating outscored by 3.7 pts per 100 possessions, they are tied for fourth worst in defensive efficiency. We've started to see them regress back to the mean w/ a pair of losses in recent days, first to Charlotte and then one to Oklahoma City. Here, they travel to Minnesota to face a T'wolves team w/ plenty of talent, despite the less than stellar early season results. This is the front end of a home and home and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Minnesota swept. Lay the points tonight. Much has been written on why the T'wolves are not living up to their potential thus far, but know this: despite a 5-12 SU record, they are only being outscored by roughly one point per 100 possessions. They are just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency, so look for them to take advantage of the sorry Knicks defense tonight. Already, there have been about a half dozen instances where Minny has lost a game SU in which it held a double-digit lead. For whatever reason, their shooting tends to dip rather dramatically in the second half of games. In the first half, they rate as the most efficient offense in the game! That really makes no sense, so look for a young team to "learn how to close" better as we move forward. I'd definitely rather have Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins than Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose. Monday night vs. Utah was yet another example though of the T'wolves letting one get away. After rallying to take the lead in the fourth quarter, they lost 112-103. But I still feel tonight's game can be the beginning of a turnaround. The Knicks allow a frightening 111.7 PPG on the road where they are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Minnesota has struggled to cover the spread in home games the L3 seasons (32-55 ATS!), but are underpriced for a change here tonight. 10* Minnesota |
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11-30-16 | Pistons +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons turned in a really strong effort last night, beating Charlotte on the road, 112-89 (as four-point underdogs). Yet they're certainly not getting much respect tonight here in Boston. One would have to assume they're being falsely penalized for the back to back situation, but we can use that to our advantage here and grab what I believe - clearly - is an inflated number. Boston was expected to be the #2 team in the East this year (behind Cleveland), but has yet to play anywhere near that level. In fact, I have them rated as the sixth best team in the East right now, which is actually lower than last season! While they've covered three straight times as a favorite, the Celtics are laying too many here. Interestingly enough, the C's have won their last four road games, but lost two in a row here at home. That has more to do w/ who they've played as the last two teams to come here to Beantown were Golden State and San Antonio. Their last four visits were to Detroit, Brooklyn, Minnesota and Miami. Yes, Detroit is included in there as they beat the Pistons 94-92 as two-point underdogs back on November 19th. I didn't see enough there or subsequently to justify this rather sizable shift in the marketplace. Boston still ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency. Al Horford is back from paternity leave, but I still don't think that alone justifies the price increase. Over the last 19 days, the Celtics have only one win by more than eight points and it was against sorry Brooklyn. Making the Pistons blowout of the Hornets all the more impressive was that they did so largely w/o the services of Andre Drummond, who was ejected in the second quarter for throwing an elbow. While still only 2-8 ATS on the road this year, I think we'll start to see the Pistons take advantage of some generous spreads like this one. They too were expected to make a leap in the Eastern Conference standings and early on it appeared as if the "cart had been put before the horse." But over the L5 games, they're holding teams to just 95 PPG and that includes a really impressive win over the Clippers. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Detroit |
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11-30-16 | Rutgers v. Miami (Fla) -17 | Top | 61-73 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Following last night's proceedings, we're down to only 19 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops. Three went down yday: Maryland (who I faded), Houston and Tennessee State. More of these teams are likely (guaranteed) to fall in the coming days and tonight I'm targeting Rutgers, who seems like the surest of the bunch to go down. Not only are the Scarlet Knights the second weakest of those 19 remaining unbeatens (only Texas A&M-CC weaker), they are huge underdogs tonight at Miami. But I don't think the spread is large enough as the 'Canes should absolutely roll Wednesday night as they return home smarting off B2B losses. Lay the points. Though Miami is not in the Top 25, I believe them to be worthy of discussion for being ranked. Yes, they did just lose to Iowa State and Florida in the Advocare Invitational, but those are both worthy adversaries. Poor shooting, not to mention turnovers, cost them in both contests. They shot just 37.7 percent from the floor against Florida and 36.0 percent vs. ISU. There were a combined 32 turnovers. I envision the shooting will improve tonight and the number of turnovers will come down. This will be just the third "true" home game for Jim Laranaga's team. They did beat a good Stanford team in their first game in Lake Buena Vista. Defensively, I see no issues as the team ranks 28th in FG% defense (37.4) and 12th in scoring (58.7 PPG). Tip your cap to this start from Rutgers as the program has not had a winning season since 2005-06. They went 7-25 SU last year, including a horrendous 1-17 mark in the Big 10. But before we go anointing the Scarlet Knights anything that they are not, let's note they have yet to play anyone of any real substance these first six games. They're off a narrow, two-point win over Hartford where the GW basket was scored w/ just six seconds remaining. My guess is that had that result gone the other way (which it easily could have), then this line would be much higher and basically where it SHOULD be. In fact, the Scarlet Knights actually trailed Hartford at one point by as many as 13 pts in the second half! This team does not shoot the ball well at all (just 43%) and has been fortunate to get bailed out by an unsustainable rebounding rate. They won't have that here and you have to figure the shooting woes will continue against a strong defensive foe like Miami. 8* Miami |
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11-30-16 | Ohio v. Marshall +1 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Marshall (7:00 ET): It's yet another unbeaten that I'm targeting on Wednesday, this one happening to be Ohio University. The Bobcats are 4-0 SU, easily the fewest wins of any of the 19 remaining unbeaten teams in the land, and hardly crack my own top 100. The do have a win over Georgia Tech, on the road no less, but tonight I don't see them having that kind of success in Huntington, WV where Marshall awaits, looking to exact revenge from an 85-70 loss in Athens LY. The Thundering Herd also are off their first defeat of 2016, that coming at the hands of Ohio State on Friday, 111-70. After suffering that kind of blowout and already looking for revenge, I look for the Herd to come out highly motivated this evening. When these teams met last season, Ohio enjoyed a sizable edge in free throw attempts (+20!) and w/ 12 more makes than Marshall, that was essentially responsible for the final margin. It should also be pointed out that the Bobcats shot the ball quite well (50.8%). But it's a little concerning to see that they were at only 37.3% from the field against Tennessee Tech on Friday, a game they failed to cover as 16.5-point chalk. It should also be pointed out that OU was 11.5-point favorites last season, so Marshall has obviously improved. The Thundering Herd are likely to do better than 22.7% shooting from three-point range (5-22) now that they're at home. Both teams defend the three-pointer well, but Marshall does it better. Opponents are shooting just 28.6% from behind the arc against them this year and that's after Ohio State's blistering performance on Friday. Meanwhile, it's really just one game helping Ohio's three-point FG% defense, that being the upset of Georgia Tech (youngest team in the country!) where the Yellow Jackets were a dreadful 3 of 11. Kenny Kaminski made five three-pointers in that game, but his status is listed as questionable for tonight due to a shoulder injury. That looms large. Meanwhile, Marshall gets back starter Ryan Taylor after the one-game suspension vs. Ohio State. That suspension was actually HC Dan D'Antoni's decision due to Taylor getting ejected from the team's 71-61 win over Jackson State. I like Marshall in this one. 10* Marshall |
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11-29-16 | NC State v. Illinois +2 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
10* Illinois (9:00 ET): Though I'm not feeling too good about the Big 10's overall prospects in this year's "Challenge" vs. the ACC, here's a game where I feel the conference can "steal one." Granted, John Groce's Fighting Illini come into this one having not covered a single game in 2016. But, even after three consecutive losses, I like this line a lot. NC State is off a real nailbiter, 79-77 over Loyola IL, which was their second two-point victory of this campaign already. The first came in the opener against Georgia Southern. The Wolfpack were double digit favorites in both of those games, so imagine what is likely to ensue in a matchup perceived to be far more even by the oddsmakers. Take the points. A Thanksgiving trip to Brooklyn did not go well for Illinois, but they also had to take on pair of ranked teams in consecutive nights. The first was West Virginia and they were humiliated there, 89-57. Friday saw them go down by double digits again, this time "only" 72-61, at Florida State's expense. That was actually a tie game w/ less than 10 minutes to play, so don't let the final score mislead you. As uninspiring as those results may be, NC State will absolutely be a drop in class for the Fighting Illini in terms of opponent and I imagine Groce will have his team highly motivated as they return home off three consecutive losses. Over the past two seasons, the Illini are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS when taking the court on a three-game losing streak. NC State is still w/o Maverick Rowan (concussion) as tonight will be the fifth consecutive game that he's missed. This is in addition to another player, Omer Yurtseven, being suspended for the first nine games of the season. Note that it was not easy for the Wolfpack on Saturday against Loyola IL as they fell behind by double digits in the first half. Granted, the Ramblers were red-hit from three-point range (58.8%), but that probably shouldn't have happened in Raleigh. Now they play a "true" road game for the first time all year. I look for Malcolm Hill to play better for Illinois tonight as the team avoids what would be a second straight loss to an ACC opponent. 10* Illinois |
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11-29-16 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Maryland | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Early returns have indicated that this year's ACC vs. Big 10 Challenge may end up a fairly one-sided affair in favor of the former. Now, you wouldn't deduce that judging from last night's 1-1 split, but rather the body of work that lies outside the official "Challenge" where ACC teams rocked their Big 10 counterparts in a number of early season matchups. The ACC has not won this event since 2008, but already is 7-1 head to head vs. the Big 10 in 2016! Interesting is that of the 22 teams still w/o a loss nationally, six will be participating in this event. That should make for some interesting fade opportunities, including this one w/ 7-0 Maryland, who will get perhaps their stiffest test to date w/ a visit from Pittsburgh. Take the points. The Terps may be unbeaten, but this has the "feel" of a pretty even matchup. Pitt has lost only one time, to SMU at a neutral site. I think that a big key here is the fact Maryland is coming off a much tougher weekend and may have less "in the tank." While Pitt made 11 three-pointers in a 76-63 win over Morehead State on Friday, Maryland had to play close games w/ both Richmond and Kansas State Friday & Saturday in Brooklyn. The 69-68 win over Kansas State, as three-point underdogs, saw Melo Trimble make a layup w/ 6.9 seconds remaining to give the Terps the win. It was the team's second upset of the year already as early in the campaign, they went to Georgetown and won 76-75 as 6.5-pt dogs, a game that the Hoyas basically gave away and was again won by Trimble in the final seconds w/ a pair of free throws. So that's two last second, one-point victories for Maryland in seven games, which is pretty fortunate. In fact, they already have five wins by six points or less! That includes home games against American and Towson State. Teams are going to start shooting better from three-point range against the Terps than they have been thus far (28.7%). Earlier, if you recall, I mentioned the fact that Pitt sank 11 three-pointers in their last game. They come in averaging 81.3 PPG overall. With the spread being so short, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this ends up being an outright win by the dog. 8* Pittsburgh |
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11-28-16 | Butler -2 v. Utah | Top | 68-59 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
8* Butler (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes to the discrepancy between the the two teams that Butler comes in favored here in Salt Lake City. To me, the Bulldogs are a Top 25 team. But I can't say the same for the host Utes, even though they too are still undefeated. Butler has raced out to a 6-0 SU start, including wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona on consecutive nights (Thurs and Fri) over Thanksgiving Night. This marks their first "true" road game, but the Bulldogs also represent Utah's first "real" competition. The Utes' 4-0 SU start includes wins over the likes of NW Nazarene, Concordia, Coppin State and UC-Riverside. The two D-I opponents both rank outside my top 250 w/ 0-7 Coppin State being one of the worst teams in the entire country. Butler is both better overall and more battle-tested. Lay the short number. With six new players on the roster, many though this would be a rebuilding year for Butler. Think again? They proved they are for real by beating the #8 ranked team in the land (Arizona) Friday in Las Vegas. It's not like that win surprised the oddsmakers; the Bulldogs actually came in as the slight favorite! Again, I feel this is one of the 20 best teams in the country right now. While shooting the ball at a 50% clip themselves, including 38.5% from three-point range, Butler is holding its opponents to just 41.3% from the field. By the way, they've also now covered 22 of the last 32 non-conference games! Already, they have three wins over Power 5 teams (N'western, Vandy, Arizona). All we really know about Utah at this point is they are tall. The schedule thus far has been ranked as the easiest in all of Division I! Like Butler, there's been a lot of roster turnover from last year. The fact the Utes have won 32 straight at home vs. non-conference foes should be respected, but again this line "speaks for itself." Butler probably will be in the Top 25 by tipoff and I see them staying there. 8* Butler |
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11-27-16 | Stanford +4 v. Seton Hall | Top | 66-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* Stanford (7:00 ET): This is the final day of the Advocare Invitational as Stanford and Seton Hall play a consolation game. Both teams lost in the first day of the event, Stanford to Miami FL and Seton Hall to Florida. Each bounced back yday. Stanford beat Indiana State 65-62, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. Seton Hall took on Quinnipiac and while they won 90-79, the too failed to cover (as lofty 22-point favorites). You may recall from a play earlier this year that I've identified the Cardinal as a 'play on' team for 2016. Meanwhile, as you may also recall, I just played against Seton Hall vs. Florida, citing the Pirates' ATS record from last season as a driving force to fade them more often than not this season. Take the points. Things started well this year for Stanford as they opened 4-0 SU, covering their first three lined games. I had them in the opener against Harvard, a game they won 80-70 as 3.5-point favorites. They followed that w/ dominating wins over CS-Northridge and Weber State. A 16-point spread proved to be too much against Colorado State, though they still won SU, 56-49. Poor shooting has hurt them here in Lake Buena Vista though. Against Miami, things started well w/ a nine-point first half lead. But after going into the break up by just four, they allowed Miami to shoot a ridiculous 62.5% after halftime. Stanford shot just 41.2% and was actually worse against Indiana State (36.5%) despite winning that one. It took a massive edge at the free throw line and a last second three to pull out the 65-62 win Friday, but I still liked what I saw enough to endorse the Cardinal here. Seton Hall, unlike Stanford, has shot the ball well this season. The one exception though was the game I went against them. They made only 42.9% from the floor against Florida, scoring a season-low 76 points. But while the Pirates can score, can they play defense? They've allowed an average of 81 points the L3 games, so as a favorite it's going to be tough to cover. While they were 22-10-1 at the betting window last year, Seton Hall is just 1-3 ATS this year, the lone cover being the upset at Iowa. Bad news (for them) is that Pirates starting forward Ismael Sanogo is a game-time decision due to a shoulder issue. Defensively, the Cardinal are the much better team here as they hold teams to just 36.9% shooting overall, including 26.7% from three-point range. 10* Stanford |
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11-26-16 | Wolves +14 v. Warriors | Top | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (10:35 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for both teams and both won last night. Minnesota, per the usual, dominated a lesser foe. Golden State swept a home and home w/ the Lakers. Again, I'm bucking a little history here as the T'Wolves are an almost unfathomable 0-16 SU (3-13 ATS) off their last 16 double digit victories. I'm willing to guess that most of the spreads haven't been this high, however. Yes, that has plenty to do with the opponent, but I believe that a) the T'Wolves are much better than their actual record and b) the Warriors are due for a letdown after winning 10 in a row. Take the points here. Minnesota's five wins this year have come against Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando, Philadelphia and Phoenix. All were by double digit margins. They are 0-4 SU/ATS off the previous four victories, but in none of those instances were they getting this level of disrespect from the oddsmakers. I again lean on the fact that Tom Thibodeau's team has a positive point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. Last night marked yet another game where they held a double digit lead at one point in the game. That's been happening in almost every game for Minnesota. But usually they're blowing them. Last night was different, however, as they outscored the Suns 31-10 in the fourth quarter. Look for that result to build some confidence for this young team. All five starters scored in double digits last night, by the way. Minnesota played Golden State tough last season, even winning a game here in Oakland as 14.5-point dogs. There was also a narrow five-point loss at home. Overall, they've covered three in a row at Golden State and are 5-2 ATS against them the L3 seasons in all meetings. The Warriors are just 23-26 ATS the L3 seasons as home favorites of 12.5 or more points. It should be noted that GSW shot the ball ridiculously well in the two games against the Lakers (56%!) while Minnesota is coming off two poor shooting efforts (39%). Those should start to even out and while the Warriors are now back to #1 in my own personal power rankings, I do not see them covering tonight. 10* Minnesota |
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Bryan Power Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-14-17 | Virginia -1.5 v. Clemson | 77-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
01-13-17 | Cavs v. Kings +7 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
01-13-17 | Yale +1.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
01-12-17 | Belmont v. Morehead State +4.5 | Top | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
01-12-17 | La Salle v. Rhode Island -12 | Top | 87-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
01-11-17 | Illinois State v. Southern Illinois +6 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
01-11-17 | Dayton v. Massachusetts +6 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7.5 | 117-97 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
01-10-17 | Baylor v. West Virginia -5.5 | 68-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
01-10-17 | Eastern Michigan -1.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 81-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
01-09-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
01-09-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern -7.5 | Top | 79-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
01-08-17 | Oakland v. Illinois-Chicago +9 | Top | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Hawks v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 97-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Raptors -2 v. Bulls | Top | 118-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Pennsylvania v. Princeton -6.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
01-07-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -16 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
01-07-17 | TCU v. West Virginia -13 | Top | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
01-06-17 | Kent State v. Ohio -7 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
01-06-17 | Rockets -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
01-05-17 | Hornets +4 v. Pistons | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
01-05-17 | James Madison v. Hofstra -7.5 | 62-54 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
01-05-17 | East Tennessee State v. The Citadel +13.5 | Top | 115-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
01-04-17 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Washington State | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
01-04-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Nebraska-Omaha +4 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
01-04-17 | Hawks v. Magic +3.5 | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
01-03-17 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
01-03-17 | Texas A&M v. Kentucky -14.5 | 58-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
01-03-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -4 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
01-02-17 | Suns v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
01-02-17 | Chattanooga v. NC-Greensboro +5.5 | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
01-01-17 | Arizona State v. California -9 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
12-31-16 | Suns v. Jazz -11 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
12-31-16 | NC State v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
12-30-16 | Pistons +3.5 v. Hawks | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
12-30-16 | La Salle v. Dayton -9 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
12-30-16 | West Virginia -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
12-29-16 | North Dakota v. Portland State +1.5 | Top | 62-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
12-28-16 | Iowa v. Purdue -12 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
12-28-16 | Bucks +4 v. Pistons | 119-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
12-27-16 | Cornell v. Syracuse -19 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
12-26-16 | Cavs v. Pistons -6 | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
12-26-16 | Bucks +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
12-25-16 | Celtics -1.5 v. Knicks | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
12-23-16 | Northern Kentucky v. West Virginia -25 | Top | 61-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
12-22-16 | Spurs v. Clippers +1.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
12-22-16 | UC-Davis v. Air Force -6 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
12-21-16 | Kings v. Jazz -6.5 | 94-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
12-21-16 | CS-Northridge v. Boise State -12 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
12-20-16 | Fresno State v. Oregon -14 | 63-75 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
12-20-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
12-20-16 | Richmond v. James Madison +3.5 | Top | 75-55 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
12-19-16 | Mavs +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
12-19-16 | Colorado v. Air Force +8 | Top | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
12-19-16 | Pistons +3 v. Bulls | Top | 82-113 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
12-19-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
12-18-16 | Gonzaga v. Tennessee +10.5 | Top | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
12-17-16 | Troy State +21.5 v. USC | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
12-17-16 | Cal Poly v. California -17.5 | Top | 55-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
12-16-16 | Hornets +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
12-16-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -19 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
12-15-16 | Murray State +9.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
12-14-16 | UC-Santa Barbara +30 v. UCLA | 62-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
12-14-16 | Pistons -5 v. Mavs | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
12-14-16 | UC-Davis v. North Dakota State -9.5 | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
12-13-16 | Morehead State +2.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
12-12-16 | Jacksonville State v. Maryland -13.5 | Top | 66-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Pepperdine +19 v. USC | Top | 67-93 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
12-11-16 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
12-10-16 | UC-Davis v. California -17.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
12-10-16 | Heat +10.5 v. Bulls | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
12-10-16 | Michigan +9.5 v. UCLA | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
12-10-16 | La Salle v. Georgetown -3.5 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
12-09-16 | Longwood +33.5 v. Creighton | Top | 58-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Texas-Arlington +14 v. St. Mary's | Top | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
12-08-16 | Blazers +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 86-88 | Push | 0 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
12-07-16 | Creighton v. Nebraska +5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
12-07-16 | TCU v. SMU -4 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
12-06-16 | Bradley v. Ball State -7 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
12-05-16 | Siena v. Rider +4 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
12-04-16 | Davidson v. College of Charleston +4 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Oklahoma State v. Maryland +1 | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Hawks +9 v. Raptors | Top | 84-128 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
12-03-16 | Georgia Tech +5 v. Tennessee | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Wizards v. Spurs -9.5 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
12-02-16 | Wolves +2 v. Knicks | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
12-01-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Cal Poly -7 | Top | 47-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Knicks v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Pistons +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Rutgers v. Miami (Fla) -17 | Top | 61-73 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
11-30-16 | Ohio v. Marshall +1 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
11-29-16 | NC State v. Illinois +2 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
11-29-16 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Maryland | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
11-28-16 | Butler -2 v. Utah | Top | 68-59 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
11-27-16 | Stanford +4 v. Seton Hall | Top | 66-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Wolves +14 v. Warriors | Top | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |