Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-13-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for the Wizards and I don't trust them enough to cover against a lesser opponent following a SU win. Last night saw them down the atrocious Magic, 125-119, a game which featured little to no defense (both teams scored 30+ in each of the first three quarters!), but Washington failed to cover as 10.5-pt chalk. That makes it four ATS losses in a row for them. Brooklyn comes in on a bit of an ATS role having covered seven of its last eight games, including an outright win last night in Atlanta as 2.5-pt dogs. So often, we see a team playing on the road and w/o rest be undervalued. I believe that to be the case here. Take the points. Washington is now just 8-20 ATS as a favorite and 8-16 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records. They've allowed 100 pts in 13 consecutive games, so it would take a really impressive outburst offensively for them to cover a spread as large as this. They couldn't last night, despite shooting 56.8% from the field. Now they were only 4 of 16 from three-point range, but any gains made in that area tonight will be offset by the extreme likelihood of them not coming anywhere close to going 50 of 79 (63.1%!) from two-point range again. The 74 pts scored in the paint last night were a season-high. The Wizards were very lucky that Orlando missed 16 of its 22 field goal attempts in the 4th quarter, because before that they were at 60 percent for the game themselves! Washington is just plain bad defensively as they are allowing an average of 107.8 pts the L5 games. Brooklyn is far more respectable this season than in year's past as they're "only" being outscored by an average of 2.8 points per game (-6.7 PPG last year). While they are by no means a good shooting team they should find success against a leaky Wizards defense for all the reasons listed above. Also, it's not like the Nets haven't found success against the Wiz this season. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in head to head matchups, including a 119-84 win last month where they led by as many as 40 points! Washington has been pretty dreadful in revenge spots this season. Most shocking of all is the level of defense the Nets have played against the Wiz this year, holding them to an average of 91 PPG on less than 40% shooting, including 9 of 42 from three-point range. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-13-18 | Oregon +9 v. Arizona | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
8* Oregon (2:00 ET): The Ducks came up big for me on Thursday, upsetting what was a highly overrated Arizona State team. Naturally, you'd call for a letdown here, but they're getting points against an Arizona team that has its own set of problems right now. Wildcats HC Sean Miller recently went on the record, saying he can't get his team "to play for him" and "can't reach" them. I don't think a solitary win over Oregon State (didn't cover) Thursday at home was the cure-all either. Now you may be wondering what Miller is taking about considering his team is 13-4 SU and ranked 17th in the country. But more was expected from this team, even if they still should be considered the "class" of the Pac 12. Take the points here. Back to back wins over ranked opponents, both on the road no less, would obviously be huge for Oregon. Remember the Ducks were a Final Four team last year. Now they did lose a ton from that team, but HC Dana Altman is 30-15 ATS the L3 seasons in Pac 12 play and 26-9 ATS off a conference win. The Ducks destroyed Arizona State on the interior Thursday, outscoring the Sun Devils 38-16 in the paint and 15 offensive rebounds led to 15 second chance points. They are the 1st road team to win in Tempe this season. Now can they turn the trick in Tucson? History says "yes" as they are 21-5 ATS their L26 games against teams averaging 77+ PPG (Arizona comes in averaging 82.5). Oregon averages 81.3 PPG themselves, so they can hang. Arizona is only 5-10 ATS when favored this season. They're also just 2-8 ATS against teams that have winning records. So you can start to understand Miller's criticism. It came after a loss at Colorado last Saturday. They never led in that game and it simply wasn't as close as the 80-77 final suggests as the Wildcats shot just 30 percent in the 1st half and fell behind 45-29. The 62-53 win over Oregon State was also a tad bit misleading as they trailed at the half and did not start to pull away until the final six minutes of the game. It helped that they were facing a drastically inferior opponent that shot only 39.3% from the floor. But Arizona only scored 62 and like Oregon State, the Ducks employ a zone (which always seems to befuddle the Wildcats). Also, the Ducks won't be lacking in confidence here as they won their last visit to Tucson, which ended Arizona's 49-game home win streak. 8* Oregon |
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01-13-18 | Syracuse v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
10* Florida State (2:00 ET): This is a spot that I'm all too apt to jump on as the home favorite is off a SU loss (in that same role) its last time out. Florida State lost to Louisville on Wednesday, 73-69 as 6.5-pt chalk, but lucky for them Syracuse is not Louisville. This is a really crucial game for the 'Noles as they've dropped three of four (every loss by 7 pts or less), but note the one win during this stretch came over North Carolina (here in Tallahassee). The L'ville loss was their first at home all season. This is a team I still have ranked in my top 30 nationally. As for Syracuse, not only are they not Louisville, they're not even your usual Orange squad under Jim Boeheim. They've lost three straight ACC games following the usual Jim Boeheim cupcake-filled non-conference schedule (bereft of "true" road games). Lay the points For the record, it's not just me that thinks highly of the Seminoles. They come into this game ranked #23 in the country (loss occured after latest poll was released). The loss also snapped a 28-game home win streak. It's not like they came out of the gates slowly either. They had a 13-pt halftime lead and it was looking like they were well on their way to another home victory. But after connecting on 18 of 39 FG attempts in the 1st half, they went just 8 of 26 from the field in the 2H. It also didn't help that they committed six turnovers in the first six minutes after halftime. This is a squad that averages 83.6 PPG overall and 88.9 at home. So, they were held well under their scoring average. I don't expect that to be the case for a second straight game. Like FSU, Syracuse's three ACC losses have all been by seven points or less. The win came against Virginia Tech. Despite a relatively strong defense (trademark zone!), the Orange can't seem to hit "water from a boat" themselves as they're off B2B sub-40% efforts from the field, averaging just 55 PPG. If you can't win a game, at home, where you hold the opposition to a 30.0 FG% (like the 'Cuse did vs. Notre Dame), then I don't know what to say. Even against said zone, I expect FSU to shoot better from three-point range than they have in their L2 games (27.1%). This is a brutal spot for the Orange, who simply lack offensive firepower, three days after playing on the road at Virginia. They got all of ZERO bench pts in that game. That won't cut it. 10* Florida State |
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01-12-18 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
10* Memphis (9:05 ET): I came into this season thinking it wouldn't be a particularly good one for the Grizzlies. However, I had no idea things could get this dire. They enter Friday w/ the second worst record in the Western Conference, only one-half game ahead of Sacramento. Injuries, particularly Mike Conley's Achilles, have been the primary culprit, but at least the team is showing signs of life lately. They've at least been competitive in going 5-1 ATS the L6 games and just beat New Orleans on Wednesday, 105-102, as a small home underdog. They're getting enough points here where I like them against a Denver team that is on a season-worst three-game losing skid w/ two of those defeats coming to Sacramento and Atlanta. Take the points. The Nuggets are thought to have one of the strongest home court advantages in the league. They are 14-5 SU here and averaging 110.9 points per game. But they lost, to Atlanta, last time out. They scored only 97 points (on 40.0% shooting) and what's key here is the Hawks are one of the few teams in the league w/ a worse record than the Grizzlies. Also, as mentioned above, the Nuggets also recently lost to the Kings, albeit that was on the road and they (Denver) were in a horrible scheduling spot. Still, if the Nuggets want to be a playoff team, they can't be losing to such opponents. They are only 9-12 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records this season. Memphis is still w/o Conley and Chandler Parsons, but is in a good place due to the schedule. Playing in Denver in the second night of a back to back is terrible, but not only did the Grizz have last night off, they've played just one time in the previous six days! They were able to beat the Pelicans despite not even shooting the ball very well (42.0%) and lost to the Wizards by only two points despite shooting even worse (40.7%). Yes, both those games were at home, but the team has shot better than 52% in two of its previous three road games. This is a team that's only being outscored by 3.3 PPG on the season. While Denver just got beat by Sacramento, the Grizzlies hammered the Kings the week before (also in Sacramento), by 18 points. (They were in the second game of a back to back as well). I expect this to be a close game. 10* Memphis |
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01-12-18 | Nebraska +7 v. Penn State | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (7:00 ET): The Big 10 weekend slate gets started a little early in Happy Valley as Penn State hosts Nebraska Friday night. In what is a VERY top-heavy league this year, these two squads are presumed for the "middle of the pack," but Nebraska comes into tonight actually tied for 4th at 3-2 SU (12-6 overall). Penn State has the same overall record, but is 2-3 SU in Big 10 play. Granted, the Nittany Lions' three losses have all come by margins of six points or fewer, but they've also yet to play either of the two heavyweights - Michigan State and Purdue. Those two are who handed Nebraska its two losses and both games were on the road. Last time out, the Cornhuskers upended Wisconsin (in Lincoln) 63-59 as 1.5-pt faves. The 'Huskers led by as many as 13 in the 2H vs. Wisconsin in what (as you can see by the line) was no upset. Now, free throws were a key in the win as Nebraska went 21 of 28 from the line while Wisconsin was just 4 of 10. They probably can't count on such an edge taking place here tonight, on the road. State College has also not been kind to them as they've won just one of their previous six visits here. But might this team be a little different as it has gone 3-2 SU against five NCAA Tourney teams from LY? This has been a strong spread team as well (11-5 ATS overall) and they play defense too. Their last three opponents have been held to 42.4%, 44.3% and 29.2% overall from the floor and all were Big 10 teams. Even better is that none of the three shot better than 29% from three-point range (key!). While Nebraska was beating Wisconsin on Tuesday, Penn State lost to Indiana despite outshooting the Hoosiers, pretty drastically. The Nittany Lions finished 50% from the floor while IU was at just 40%. How then, do we explain that result? Well, the bench was outscored 25-1 and IU made 18 of its 22 free throws while Penn State made just 12 of its 18. Also, the Nittany Lions committed 14 turnovers to the Hoosiers' nine. But consider this: PSU's top two players - Carr and Stevens - combined for 48 pts and they still lost (on an overall good shooting night for the team). Nebraska managed to defeat Wisconsin despite shooting only 5 of 19 from three-point range. This spread is too high. Penn State, keep in mind, lost to Rider back on 12.22. 10* Nebraska |
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01-11-18 | Oregon +8 v. Arizona State | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10* Oregon (10:00 ET): I think I speak for many when I say that I never took Arizona State seriously, not even as the Sun Devils could still claim to be one of the few remaining unbeatens in the country. They got as high as #2 in the polls, but this is barely a Top 25 team in my opinion. So, OK, they did win at Kansas in their lone "true" non-conference road game. They also upset Xavier here in Tempe. But a team that was projected to finish as low as sixth this year in the Pac 12 has predictably come back "down to Earth" now that conference play has commenced. ASU lost B2B games at Arizona and Colorado to bookend the New Year and followed that up w/ a close call in Salt Lake earlier this week (beat Utah by three). I'll take the points here as the (now) #11 team in the country is still due to tumble down the rankings a bit more. Oregon comes into this game well-rested. They're also angry as last Friday saw them fall to rival Oregon State, in Corvallis, 76-64 as 2.5-pt favorites. It was the second time in three Pac 12 games that the Ducks lost outright as favorites as they also lost at home to Utah in the opener (beat Colorado in between). This will be the 1st time in conference play that they are getting points. It's only the third time all season that the Ducks have been a dog. They're 8-3 ATS in that role the L3 seasons, not to mention they're also 6-1 ATS the L7x they have taken the court w/ five or six days rest. They've also been exceptional against high scoring teams such as ASU, going 20-5 ATS their L25 games vs. opponents that average 77+ PPG. Now Arizona State has enjoyed its own success at the betting window this year, covering all but two lined games, one of those coming when they were 38-pt favorites. They're also 9-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game and haven't lost at home. This is their first time hosting in Pac 12 play as the first three games were all on the road. That said, their recent shooting decline is a concern and I don't think a simple return to Tempe is a "cure-all." Oregon (a Final Four team LY, remember!) can both rebound (+6.0 rpg) and defend (opponents shooting below 40% for the year) and that can keep an underdog in any game. 10* Oregon |
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01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings are, in my opinion, the worst team in basketball. Sure, there are teams w/ worse records (two to be precise) and they are tied w/ two others (Lakers, Grizzlies) for the worst record in the Western Conference. But no team in the league can "touch" their -8.7 PPG scoring differential. That being said, there are two factors pointing to me taking the points here. One is that they are at home. Whereas the Kings are being outscored by double digits on the road, they're "only" -5.7 PPG at home and a respectable 7-12 straight up. They even won outright over Denver here, last Saturday, 106-98 while taking 8.5 pts from the oddsmakers. That win is relevant to the discussion here because like the Nuggets there, Sacramento's opponent for tonight is coming in w/o rest. Take the points. Not only are the Clippers coming into this game w/o rest, it also happens to be a massive letdown spot as last night saw them STUN Golden State, 125-106 as 12-pt underdogs. That game was in Oracle Arena too and the Clips were short-handed (no Blake Griffin)! They absolutely destroyed the Dubs on the glass, outrebounding them 61-37, but the real story was Lou Williams scoring a career-best (easily!) 50 points. Needless to say, Williams probably won't come close to that point total tonight nor will reserve Tyrone Wallace be scoring 22 pts here (That was his career-high last night as well!). Furthermore, the Clippers have been absolutely dreadful in the second of back to back games this season, going 0-6 straight up. This is not a good spot for them. The Kings have won just one of their previous six games and just lost at the Lakers, by double digits, scoring only 86 points. Prior to that, they did play San Antonio tough here at home (lost by only 7) and then there was the win over Denver. They also beat Cleveland here at home right before the New Year. I know it seems a little scary taking the Kings in this price range, but when the Clippers visited earlier in the year, it was only a two-point game. Following last night's huge win, there is simply no way that the Clips will be able to have the same intensity and it really can't be overstated just how short-handed they are right now (as many as six players out!). 10* Sacramento |
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01-10-18 | Colorado v. USC -11 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
10* USC (10:00 ET): This is a classic set up w/ the favorite off a SU loss (as road favorites) taking on an underdog off a PAIR of outright wins as a dog. Things aren't going quite as planned for Andy Enfield's USC Trojans as they'll enter this game w/ only an 11-6 SU record. This is a team that was predicted to finish 2nd in the Pac 12, prior to the start of this campaign. But they've already lost twice in conference play, one of those coming at Stanford (77-76) their last time out. The Trojans were five-point favorites in that contest. They'll be favored again tonight as they host a Colorado team that has to be feeling pretty good about itself following upsets of Arizona State and Arizona. But both upsets took place in Boulder. Not here. Lay the points. USC's loss to Stanford was as brutal as it gets as the Cardinal's Deajon Davis hit a 50-foot desperation heave at the buzzer to win the game. The Trojans had led by 11 at the half and by as many as 15. Considering Stanford was coming off a double OT game three nights prior, blowing that kind of lead - even on the road - should not happen. Southern Cal is now just 5-6 SU its last 11 games, including a home loss (in OT) to Princeton. That said, this is still a good offensive team that averages 83.5 PPG at home. They have three losses by two points or less or in overtime. I anticipate them going on a bit of run here w/ a favorable stretch of games this month, making tonight a good "buy low" situation. Following a SU loss this year, the Trojans have gone 4-1 ATS w/ the avg MOV coming by double digits. Meanwhile, now would be an opportune time to "sell high" on Colorado. As stated above, the Buffaloes just upset both Arizona schools and did it as nine (Arizona St) and 8.5 (Arizona) pt underdogs respectively. ASU was one of the final teams to suffer a loss nationally, but is way overrated. Arizona is also struggling right now, something their own HC will readily admit. A huge key here is venue as "true" road games have been unkind to CU. They are 0-4 SU/ATS in them, including double digit losses at both Oregon and Oregon State in Pac 12 play. So, it's been a very different Buffaloes team we've seen on the road compared to Boulder. This game is in L.A., so it's a no-brainer. 10* USC |
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01-10-18 | Thunder +4 v. Wolves | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Last night saw OKC stop back home for the only time in a six-game stretch. They lost, 117-106, to Portland as eight-point favorites. It was their second consecutive SU loss in that price range as the game prior saw them suffer an embarrassing double-digit defeat in Phoenix. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off arguably its most impressive win of the Tom Thibodeau-era as they waxed Cleveland 127-99 here at home Monday night. So, the two Northwest Division foes head into tonight's game feeling quite different. I can see this being a potential 1st round (#4 vs. #5) playoff matchup and being that it's a national TV game, the Thunder aren't about to take it lightly, especially given what's happened to them the L2 games. I'm also banking on the T'wolves not being as sharp as they were last tine out. Take the points. One thing the Thunder have going for them here is that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Not only that, they won all four times straight up! Despite the respective records and recent form, I still believe OKC to be the better of the two teams here. Already, this will be the fourth meeting of the season between the pair and Minnesota has gone 3-0 ATS in the previous three. However, all three games were decided by four points or less and by nine points total! The Thunder did win the last one SU though, 111-107 as five-point chalk, for what was at the time their first win all season by eight points or less. (They've subsequently won eight such games!). The first two meetings (both won by Minnesota) were played very early in the season and one of them was decided on a buzzer-beater. This will be the final meeting of the regular season and I'm guessing OKC is going to want to make a statement. Now the Thunder failed to make a statement last night, losing at home to a Portland team that was w/o its best player (Damian Lillard). They did not shoot nor defend well. Here's the thing though; OKC is a far better defensive team than Minnesota as the two teams rank 6th and 19th respectively in efficiency at that end of the floor. Now the T'wolves have led by 34 and 41 points in each of their last two games and could get PG Jeff Teague back. But what goes up, must come down, and in this case I'm riding w/ a Thunder team that rarely catches points like they are here. 10* Oklahoma City |
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01-09-18 | Georgetown +6.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (6:30 ET): There seems to be a bit of a desire (from the general public) to play AGAINST Pat Ewing's Hoyas these days. That probably has a lot to do w/ all we've heard about just how weak the Hoyas' non-conference schedule was. Ironically, G'town wasn't a good bet in the non-conference as they often faced lofty spreads and weren't covering them. But now that Big East play has started and they're a dog every time, we've seen more ATS success. Yes, they were severely routed by Creighton over the weekend, 90-66, as six-point home dogs. But prior to that, they'd gone 2-0-1 ATS in conference games, upsetting DePaul and losing to Butler (2 OT) by just two points (pushed as nine-point dogs at Marquette). Here, Ewing is fortunate to be facing St. John's at a time when the Red Storm have lost four in a row and will be w/o second leading scorer Marcus LoVett. Take the points. The build up for this game will center around the two coaches, Ewing and Chris Mullin, each of whom led their respective alma maters to greatness over 30 years ago. That makes sense, but also masks the fact both teams are struggling right now. St. John's, like G'town, is off an ugly loss as they were beaten at home (as seven-point favorites), 91-74 by DePaul. The Red Storm have played two Big East home games thus far and lost them by a combined 39 points. They're off to an 0-4 start in conference play and that is largely owed to some terrible defensive efforts. They're giving up 84.5 PPG on 49.8% shooting in league play. There seemed to be a real lack of effort at defending the three-point line vs. DePaul. G'town is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 17-7 ATS its last 24. St. John's clearly misses LoVett (knee) and as a result one player (Shamorie Ponds) has had to carry the scoring burden. Ponds has really struggled to shoot the ball of late, including a 7 of 24 effort in the loss to DePaul. Again, the Red Storm just lost - at home - by 17 points to DePaul. That is not good. Georgetown has a sizable (pun intended!) edge in the frontcourt and I anticipate them exploiting that. The Hoyas might never have been as good as their record this season, but they are worth taking plus the points here in what could be an outright upset. 8* Georgetown |
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01-08-18 | Cavs -1 v. Wolves | Top | 99-127 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): In the past, I've been quite criticial of Cleveland and their inability to defend well. They come into this game ranked a rather unsightly 27th in defensive efficiency after allowing 127 pts in a win (!) over Orlando Saturday night. As a result, the Cavs have been HUGE money-burners in the favorite role this season, now 6-24 against the spread. So, what's w/ the endorsement here? Well, Minnesota happens to be a good matchup for LeBron and company as the Timberwolves are in the same boat in terms of offensive vs. defensive splits. While ranking 5th in offensive efficiency (Cavs are 3rd), the T'wolves are 20th on the defensive end. They have also struggled against the East this year, going just 2-11 ATS (4-10 SU). Fortunately for Cleveland, they were able to turn in one of their highest scoring efforts of the year Saturday in Orlando, finishing the game w/ a 131 pts on relatively mediocre shooting. They built a lead as large as 20 pts going into the 4Q, which is when the poor defense made things closer than they ought to have been. (Magic scored 40 pts in the 4Q). Still, as you can tell, there is nothing wrong w/ the Cavs offensively right now as they come into tonight averaging 110.5 PPG. Unlike most of their games, there's no real worries about a pointspread here as a SU win basically equates to a cover. Remember that Isaiah Thomas is now in the Cavs lineup as well. It's a small sample size, but the two games where Thomas has played have seen the team average 129 pts! Minnesota has been unusually stout at the defensive end lately, holding each of its previous five foes below 100 pts (94.6). But they've played some weak teams during that stretch, such as Brooklyn and the Lakers. For the season, the T'wolves are allowing 47.8% shooting at home, including 37.8% from three-point range. Cleveland is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league right now and I expect them to score plenty tonight. How much they give up is another matter, but the number won't be as many as they score. Having dropped five of eight, the Cavs have fallen five games back of Boston for the top spot in the East, so it's imperative they finish this road trip strong. 10* Cleveland |
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01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (9:35 ET): Two bottom feeders meet late Sunday night, so I don't anticipate a huge handle on this game. That said, I do think it's worth a shot taking the Lakers (even as a favorite!), who are desperate right now to snap a nine-game losing skid that started before X-Mas. Even worse is the fact that six of those losses took place here at Staples Center. But absences have played a role and while the idiotic LaVar Ball remains an annoyance, I feel tonight is a case of "if not now, when?" for the team. Atlanta comes in as the only team w/ a worse record than the Lakers and will be playing its third consecutive road game here. Lay the short number. While six of the Lakers last seven losses have come by double digits, the Hawks have been a surprisingly "tough out" as they've covered 12 of the last 18 games (including one push). But they too were routed their last time out, 110-89 by Portland as they trailed by as many as 25 pts in the fourth quarter. The Hawks have actually been favored in five games this year, winning and covering four of them. But otherwise, they rarely win as their SU record as a dog is 6-27. They lose those games by an average of 6.2 points per game, but w/ the pointspread usually generous, they can at least reward those taking them ATS. But here, the number is short and you don't see that often w/ this team, at least on the road. They are just 3-17 SU on the road this season, the worst such record in the league. The Lakers defense has ranged from horrific to non-existent of late and that has to stop. There was a time earlier in the year when they actually ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency (currently 15th). HC Luke Walton seems cognizant of that. "Early in the year, if we had off-shooting nights, like we've had a lot of, we were still right in ball games, because we were defending our tails off," he said. The Lakers need to win here to avoid matching the franchise's longest losing streak in history (set in the dreadful period when Magic Johnson was coaching the team in '94). Fortunately here, Atlanta happens to rank 27th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers beat the Hawks both times last season and can do it again tonight. 8* LA Lakers |
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01-07-18 | Iowa +8.5 v. Maryland | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
10* Iowa (8:00 ET): Maryland is a team that would find itself squarely on the bubble if this were March as most "Bracketology experts" have them right on the cutline as one of the final four teams in the field of 68. However, the Terps certainly did NOT look like a NCAA Tournament team earlier in the week when they were thrashed (by 30!) at top ranked Michigan State. Iowa isn't even thinking Tourney right now after it dropped B2B home games to Ohio State and Michigan. Just when it appeared as if the Hawkeyes had things turned around (five straight wins to end 2017), they drop a pair in Iowa City to start the new year. They have yet to win a single Big 10 game (0-4 SU!), so expect a desperate dog tonight in College Station. Take the points. Maryland is 2-2 vs. the Big 10 and 13-4 SU overall. The two losses did come to Purdue and Michigan State, not only the two best teams in the league, but two of the best teams in the country. However, the two wins are by a combined seven points, one of them (at Illinoi) by only one. That's significant b/c Illinois is the only other Big Ten team besides Iowa w/o a win in league play. Every Terrapins' Big 10 tilt, besides the last one, was close. Thursday in East Lansing, however, they were completely decimated in a 91-61 defeat. They had no answer for the Spartans' depth or shooting (57.7% overall), which included a season-high 16 three-point FGs made. Will tonight's game be a significant drop in class for Maryland? Certainly. But might the Terps also still be "licking their wounds?" Probably. Iowa has its issues defensively as they've given up at least 73 points in four consecutive games and 92 the last time out, vs. Ohio State. This is a young and not particularly deep team (though they do play 11), but still, falling behind by as many as 17 pts (in the first half) in your own gym is pretty unacceptable. It was the second straight game where the Hawkeyes got off to a bad start. They also allowed the Buckeyes to shoot 53.0% from the field. But this looks to be a generous spread as the Hawkeyes haven't really been a dog of this magnitude, save for once, this season. Maryland has been good at home so far, but they've yet to blow a Big 10 opponent out. 10* Iowa |
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01-06-18 | Celtics -5 v. Nets | Top | 87-85 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Boston (6:05 ET): The Celtics withstood a tough challenge from the T'wolves Friday night, holding them to 84 points in a seven-point win and cover. Playing on the road and w/o rest here may not be an ideal combo, but consider that the opponent is lowly Brooklyn. While the Nets too beat Minnesota in their last game (Wednesday), which was their second straight win and fourth consecutive cover, the Celtics are not a good matchup for them. I say that knowing full well that the Nets covered in Beantown back on December 30th, as 9.5-pt dogs, in a 108-105 loss. But that was an atypical game for the Celtics as they allowed 59 pts in the 1st half and then also went scoreless from the field over the final 4:27. Lay a shorter number here. That last meeting also marked the seventh straight time Boston beat Brooklyn. They did so despite some of the factors listed above, plus they were only 16 of 25 from the free throw line. It was - easily - the Celtics' worst defensive showing in the last five games and also only one of four times in the L11 games that they surrendered more than 100 pts. They come into tonight ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (97.9) after holding B2B opponents below 90 pts. Both of those opponents - Cleveland and Minnesota - came in ranked in the top five in OFFENSIVE efficiency, mind you! Brooklyn is tied for only 18th in that department as they may average 106.9 PPG for the season, but do so thanks to a high number of possessions per game. If and when Boston limits the number of possessions and turns this into a halfcourt game, it will be a frustrating affair for the Nets. That's the big edge the Celtics have here. Brooklyn's B2B wins have been by a total of three points. Both were at home, against Orlando and Minnesota. Before that, they'd lost 8 of 10. They have won three in a row at home, but have not won three in a row overall (what they're gunning for here) at any point this season. In fact, it's just the third time they've won consecutive times. The last time (early December) saw them lose their next game by double digits, here at home. Furthermore, only one time all of last season (towards the end of the year) did the Nets win three straight times. Boston has won five straight and is holding opponents to 93.2 PPG on 37.5% shooting. One final point to make here centers around three-point shooting. Boston beat Minnesota last night despite shooting a season-worst 6 for 36 from behind the arc. They'll obviously improve upon that number here. Meanwhile, Brooklyn needed to hold Minnesota to 1 of 11 from three-point range to prevail by one point on Wednesday. Their three-point defense is bound to regress. 8* Boston |
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01-06-18 | North Carolina +5 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (1:00 ET): In all due respect to the Big XII matchup between WVU and Oklahoma later in the day, the standout game on Saturday's slate takes place in the ACC. Both Virginia and North Carolina are probably better than their current rankings, #8 and #12 respectively, and today we'll find out who is better overall (albeit not necessarily permanently). This is a rivalry dominated by the home team recently w/ four straight wins and seven of the last nine. But North Carolina is likely the more motivated side here after losing at Florida State Wednesday (by a single point!) and thus, they'll be the proverbial "tough out" plus the points. I'm taking the underdog here. Now, I must concede that Virginia is a very good basketball team. How good? Well, at the defensive end, they are allowing just 52.7 points per game. That's the fewest in the country right now and perhaps more impressive is the fact the Hoos have held every opponent thus far to either its lowest or second lowest point total of the season! They allow 6.2 PPG fewer than the #2 team defensively (Miami). They also don't turn the ball over much, doing so just 9x per game, fewest in the country. But Saturday afternoon will certainly be their toughest test to date as UNC comes in averaging an impressive 84.9 points per game. Off their previous two losses, the Tar Heels have won by double digits the next time out, each time scoring 86 pts. It's rare that UNC loses B2B games. It didn't happen at all last season en route to them cutting down the nets in April. This team may not be as good as that one, but remember they don't even need to necessarily win straight up here. Prior to routing Va Tech in Blacksburg earlier in the week (1st win there in four years), Virginia was lucky to win its ACC opener (here in Charlottesville) as they escaped w/ a one-point win over Boston College. Getting back to North Carolina, they are 35-17-2 ATS their L54 games following a SU loss. That's good enough for me as you have to figure they've been favored in almost all of those contests. There's some real nice value here taking them plus the points. 8* North Carolina |
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01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:35 ET): This is a rare TV showcase (ESPN) for the Grizzlies, so I expect them to be up for it. They host a Washington team who is well-known to either play up - or down - to its level of opponent. Case in point, the Wizards have won three in a row, one of those games against Houston. (All three were also at home.) But they've also suffered recent losses - by double digits - to Atlanta and Brooklyn. Those were two of their last three road games. The Wiz have a losing road record this year (9-10 SU) while being outscored as well. I like that this number has been bet up in the A.M. and I'll take advantage by grabbing the points. For Memphis, this is their 1st home game since before Christmas! They just wrapped up a five-game West Coast trip w/ a 113-105 loss at the Clippers. They at least managed to beat both the Lakers and Kings on the trip and only lost to Phoenix by two. When they met Washington earlier in the season (in D.C.), they lost by just six and that was as 7.5-pt favorites. Not sure why the line would be so high for the rematch. Memphs is also averaging an impressive 111.3 points over its L6 games. Washington will have John Wall in the lineup tonight (and tomorrow). Usually, HC Scott Brooks has been resting Wall in the front end of a back to back. But with the team being so inconsistent, he's "changing it up" a bit. I reckon that Wall's presence is what has influenced this line so much. The Wizards are only 11-10 SU against teams w/ losing records and 8-13 ATS in those same games. Those losses I mentioned earlier - to Brooklyn and Atlanta - were by a combined 49 points! 8* Memphis |
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01-05-18 | Bulls v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Winners of five in a row ATS (4-1 straight up), the Mavs face an ideal opponent tonight in the Bulls. Dallas has seen its offensive efficiency rise pretty dramatically over the last month or so while Chicago still languishes (ranked 29th) in that department. I still feel that the Bulls are being overvalued due to that somewhat shocking seven-game win streak in December. They're 12-3 ATS the L15 games, but let's not forget just how poorly they played over the first two months of the season. Sure enough, they've begun to regress again w/ three consecutive losses, the latest coming at home to Toronto (Wednesday) by a score of 124-115. They're just 4-15 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 10 PPG and have gone just 1-13 SU, 2-9-3 ATS against the Western Conference. Lay the points here. Dallas also had a very rough start to the season, but despite their 13-26 SU overall record, they're still only being outscored by 2.4 points per game. That's a far better YTD point differential than Chicago, who is -5.6 points per game. In fact, only two teams in the league can lay claim to having a worse point differential than the Bulls, those being Phoenix and Sacramento. Per 100 possessions, the Bulls are being outscored by 6.5 points, tied for second worst in the league. Dallas isn't favored too often (this will be just the 10th time this season), but it's a good spot as they have outscored their opponents at home, largely due to the fact they hold opponents to 43.9% shooting here. Also, they are a perfect 3-0 ATS after scoring 115+ pts the last game. Alas, 122 pts was not enough for the Mavs on Wednesday as they went up against Golden State, but only lost by three. They covered as 8.5-pt dogs. Prior to the loss, they'd won four in a row. Certainly, losing to the Warriors is no crime, especially if its by only three points. Steph Curry made a three-pointer in the closing seconds to decide the game. As for the Bulls, while their offense still languishes, the defense has now surrendered 114 or more points in three straight games. Again, those have all been losses. I liked how Dallas had seven players score in double figures (2nd time in 3 games!) against the Dubs and that they shot 19 of 43 from three-point range. 10* Dallas |
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01-05-18 | Elon v. Northeastern -5.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Northeastern (7:00 ET): Off an outright loss as a home favorite earlier in the week, I expect the Huskies to be highly motivated for this Friday night home date. On Tuesday, they lost to Hofstra, 71-70 as 5.5-pt chalk. That snapped a five-game home winning streak and was an extremely disappointing result given that N'eastern led early on by double digits. In the second half, no more than three points separated the two teams over the final 10 minutes. In a contest determined by the slightest margin possible, the keys were Hofstra shooting 49 to 45.5 percent from the floor, outscoring N'eastern 36-24 in the paint and four more free throws made. Tonight they face an Elon team in the exact opposite situation, that being off a SU win as a (slight) dog at home. I'll lay the points. Elon got me their last time out, beating Towson 75-72 as a 1.5-pt dog. Again, that game mirrored Northeastern's last game, only w/ the opposite result for the team in question. The Phoenix trailed virtually the entire first half and was still down six w/ just over seven minutes to go in the game. Like the N'eastern-Hofstra game, Elon and Towson were never separated by more than five pts after that. The Phoenix did not take the lead for good until the final minutes. They've now won three in a row and started 2-0 in CAA play, but both conference games were at home. Speaking of close games, these teams played a pair last season, each winning by 2 pts or less on the other's home floor. They were very different games. Elon won at N'eastern 51-49 and then the rematch went the Huskies way, 105-104, after two overtimes. Speaking of overtimes, Elon has been a very lucky team so far this season, winning three different OT games including one double OT game and one triple OT game! Four of their five losses have been by nine points or greater, three of those coming by 16 pts or more. All five losses were also on the road. As for Northeastern, I simply can't see them dropping B2B home games. The Huskies are allowing just 63 PPG at home this year while limited teams to 26% shooting from behind the arc. I'm banking on their defense showing up in a major way here and avenging what happened earlier in the week. Elon is just 1-5 ATS away from home this year. 10* Northeastern |
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01-04-18 | Houston v. Wichita State -8.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (7:00 ET): This season has seen Wichita State make the "move up" from the Missouri Valley, a conference which they dominated seemingly for forever, to the American. The expectation is that it will the Shockers competing w/ Cincinnati for supremacy here. Sure enough, those are the only two AAC teams ranked, currently. Wichita State won its first league game on Saturday, 72-62 over UConn, but failed to cover (barely) as 10.5-pt favorites. It was the fourth consecutive game where they did not cover. For tonight, the number is more manageable (1st time not favored by DD since SU loss to Oklahoma), but the task more difficult as they host 12-2 Houston. The Cougars are off to a 2-0 SU start in AAC play. Houston's two losses this year are by a combined seven points, but to Drexel and LSU, games in which they were favored. They've only been an underdog once and that game happens to be their best performance of the season, a stunning 91-65 beatdown of Arkansas. But that was at home. The Cougars were a busy team prior to the New Year, playing twice in three days and beating USF and Temple. However, those two wins did not come w/o some attrition as starting forward Breaon Brady (scored 21 pts vs. Temple) sustained an ankle injury. He may not play tonight. Going into Charles Koch Arena, one definitely wants to be at full strength. That's because Wichita State is 65-1 straight up here the last five seasons! Wichita State will certainly be Houston's toughest opponent to date. While the Shockers didn't play particularly well last month against Oklahoma, the Sooners are also a tougher opponent against Houston. WSU's only other loss this year was to Notre Dame (who was ranked #13 at the time) in Maui and they blew a double-digit halftime lead in that one. The key to the Shockers' success has been rebound margin as they rank #4 in the country in that department at +11.6 per game. This being their 1st AAC home game, I expect a very motivated effort from WSU. Lay the points. 10* Wichita State |
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01-04-18 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -7.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
8* Under UTSA/La Tech (7:30 ET): Here's a somewhat "off the radar" matchup as we travel to Conference USA where both UTSA and Louisiana Tech are looking to bounce back from losses. The latter was expected to challenge Middle Tennessee for conference supremacy this season, but has opened C-USA w/ B2B losses, albeit both taking place on the road. But it can't all be blamed on the schedule here as the Bulldogs have had lineup issues and turn the ball over too much. Jalen Harris, the team's second leading scorer, asked for and was granted a release from the program after only 11 games. Leading scorer Dequan Bracey has battled back issues, which have limited him over the L2 games, and he's also the primary culprit for all the turnovers. UTSA won its C-USA opener (over Rice), but then lost to North Texas by a single point on Saturday. Unlike La Tech, the Roadrunners got to play both of their first two league games at home. Not much is expected from UTSA this season as they were picked to finish in the middle of C-USA and they're simply not very good away from home. Their lone "true" road win this year came by a single point at Texas State in the second game of the season. The loss to North Texas was the Roadrunners' fourth game this season decided by four points or less and they've lost three of those. They blew a seven-point halftime lead to North Texas and missed two layups in the closing seconds. This is not a team noted for its defense as they've allowed 100 pts TWICE in regulaton this season. Like UTSA, La Tech can score. They average 79.7 PPG and 90.0 PPG at home. UTSA averages 85.5 PPG (still not in the top 20), but also allows 77 PPG. These teams have a history of going Over against one another w/ seven of the previous eight meetings going that way, including all four the last two seasons. But notable here is the fact the O/U line some 20 pts higher than it was for either meeting last year. Both 2017 matchups BARELY went Over as in by 2 pts and 1 pt. Five of La Tech's last six games have stayed Under and while, again, both were on the road, they are averaging just 66.5 in conference games. UTSA is also coming off its lowest scoring effort to date. 8* Under UTSA/La Tech |
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01-03-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:05 ET): I expect both of these teams to be in the battle for the last couple (few?) playoff spots in the Western Conference, all season long. The five teams I consider "locks" in the West to make the playoffs are: Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Minnesota. That leaves three spots, likely to be filled by some combo of the Pelicans, Jazz, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets (so two teams will be left out). Given the way Utah played in December, the playoffs might seem like a remote possibility. Though they did end 2017 w/ an upset of the Cavs (here at home), the Jazz have gone just 3-10 SU since December 5th to fall to 16-21 SU overall. New Orleans, despite B2B losses, sits ahead of them (currently in that coveted 8th place position). Both teams are well-rested coming into tonight as they've each been off for three days. The Pelicans failed to take advantage of what looked like, on paper, to be a favorable homestand to close out 2017 (favored in all three games). They lost the last two, to Dallas and New York, "thanks" to a combo of poor defense and collapsing down the stretch. It was the defense that cost them against the Mavs, a poor offensive team that the Pelicans let make 22 three-pointers and score a season-high 122 pts. Then against the Knicks, NO blew an eight-point lead w/ under three minutes to go. So they should be highly motivated, not to mention this is a revenge spot as they lost here in Salt Lake City back on 12.1 (114-108). Interestingly though, they were 3.5-pt road favorites that night. Utah doesn't have Rudy Gobert, which is problematic to begin with, but especially when facing a team that has Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins on its roster. I'm not sure how the Jazz plan on stopping them. Sure, they can slow the pace down, but that will be tough against a Pelicans team that plays at the sixth fastest pace in the league. I concede the fact Utah allows only 95.5 PPG at home, but since their problems started back on 12.5, they've held only two opponents below 100 pts. The December schedule was pretty brutal for the Jazz, so I can't say I was shocked to see them struggle. But while the pointspread is somewhat negligible here, it's only the 2nd time they've been favored in the L10 games. Only twice in the L18 games have they been favored by more than two points! 8* New Orleans |
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01-03-18 | Oklahoma State +10 v. Oklahoma | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Bedlam is renewed on the basketball court tonight w/ Oklahoma hosting rival Oklahoma State in the second Big 12 game for each side. The faithful in Norman may still be "licking their wounds" after the football team's disappointing loss in the Rose Bowl Monday, but they've got a pretty good basketball team too. The Sooners come in at 11-1 SU and ranked #7 in the country. In the (very deep) Big XII, they are the second highest rated team right now according to the pollsters (ahead of Kansas!). But it wasn't easy New Year's Eve, handing TCU its first loss of the season, and OK State will come in highly motivated off a loss at home to WVU. Take the points w/ the Pokes in this one. The Big 12 looks to be loaded this year w/ five teams currently ranked in the top 18 and three in the top 10. Personally, I have OU rated as the fourth best team in the league (ahead of TCU among those ranked). I don't think they're the 7th best team in the country, by any means. Oklahoma State is in the next tier (along w/ Texas, Baylor and Kansas State) in what is potentially shaping up to be a seven-bid league in the NCAA Tournament. Certainly, they don't want to (can't afford to?) start 0-2 in conf play. They led WVU by seven at halftime in Stillwater on Friday, but shockingly the nation's #2 free throw shooting team (80.5%!) faltered down the stretch (11 for 19 in 2H). While the Cowboys were picked to finish last in the preseason poll, clearly, they're better than that as their only three losses so far have come to Top 10 teams (WVU, A&M, Wichita State). Winners of nine in a row, the Sooners are clearly going to be motivated here by the double revenge they have from last year (lost to OK State both times). But three of the past four meetings between these two (including both LY) have been decided by four points or less. In other words, expect a close game tonight. OU just outlasted TCU on New Year's Eve, coming from behind to win 90-89. At one point, the Sooners trailed by as many as 13 in the second half. Having had two more days to prepare here is a big edge for the underdog. Oklahoma certainly can score, but they give up plenty of points too (79.9 PPG). Maybe that's why they're just 3-6 ATS laying points this season. 8* Oklahoma State |
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01-02-18 | Hornets -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 131-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (10:05 ET): Tonight marks a sort of "crossroads" for me as it pertains to the Hornets. In the interest of full disclosure, I tabbed this team as one of my most improved for 2017-18, presupposing they'd experience a lot better luck - whether you're talking injuries or record in close games. Instead, they've gotten neither. They currently sit 10 games below .500, have been w/o Nic Batun (since returned) and Cody Zeller (out indefinitely) for significant time, and seen their record in games decided by three points or less dip to an almost unfathomable 0-13 (straight up) since the start of last season! Even their head coach Steve Clifford has not been immune as he has been M.I.A. for three weeks due to an undisclosed health issue. But I'm willing to take a stab (one last one?) tonight as they visit the team I rate as the worst in the entire league, that being Sacramento. Sure, there is a handful of teams w/ worse records than the Kings. But in my estimation, no team has played worse. They have - by a fairly wide margin - the worst per game point differential in the league at -8.7. Mirroring that, they are giving up 10.3 more points per 100 possessions than they are scoring. The next worst team is only -6.4 in that department. That discrepancy is largely owed to a league worst defense that is giving up 1.1 points per possession. Offensively, the Kings are also dead last in efficiency and they average only 97.0 points per game. They won't have either their starting (rookie De'Aaron Fox) or even backup (Frank Mason) point guard for tonight's game as both are out w/ injuries. Yikes! The last two games have seen Sacramento get outscored by 28 pts. That may not mean surprise you, but consider the opponents were Memphis and Phoenix. So there is hope for a team like Charlotte here. Against the Grizzlies, the Kings trailed by as many as 30 in the second half and that that was here at home! Whereas the Kings are simply a bad team, the Hornets are a decent one, hurt by poor luck. I know that they're only 3-13 SU on the road this season, so it seems odd to lay points, but the line actually isn't high enough. Expect Kemba Walker to shoot better than he has recently, in this game. 10* Charlotte |
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01-02-18 | Hawks v. Suns -1 | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Two bottom-feeders face off Tuesday in the desert w/ the Suns hosting the Hawks. Both teams entered 2017-18 "knowing their lot" and that it would be a long season. Neither has "disappointed" in that regard. Phoenix is 14-24 SU and really could be a lot lower in the Western Conference standings as three of the four teams w/ worse records have better YTD point differentials. The Hawks are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference (10-26 SU), yet off a rare SU win. That latter component makes them strong fade material in my book as bad teams rarely post B2B wins, especially on the road. The Suns are 28-12 ATS the L40 H2H meetings, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. For Atlanta, this game marks the start of a five-game trip out West. They beat Portland at home Saturday, 104-89 as 2-pt home dogs. In addition to much better than usual defense, the Hawks used a second-half scoring "explosion" to down the Blazers. They scored 32 points in the 4Q alone and the difference in the last 12 minutes was almost the difference in the game. They also benefited from shooting 14 of 30 from three-point range while Portland was only 7 of 25. The Hawks are middle of the road offensively, but it's the other end where they often struggle. They'll come into this game ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. (Phoenix is one of three teams rated lower). The 89 pts allowed to Portland were the fewest by any Hawks opponent since Sacramento scored only 80 back on November 15th. The Hawks promptly lost the next game, by 11, to Boston. On the road, things have not gone well for Atlanta either. They're just 3-15 straight up and being outscored by six points per game. Their last road win came back on December 2nd at Brooklyn. I'm actually a little shocked to see the Hawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. But, as you might have guessed, that's a byproduct of a lot of large spreads. With that not being the case here, it's good to think "the other way," and here w/ Phoenix, they'll be looking to bounce back from a double digit loss here at home on New Year's Eve to Philadelphia. Prior to that, they'd won 5 of 7. Against teams w/ losing records, the Suns do have a winning SU record, something the Hawks cannot say about themselves. The Suns' home record would be better if not for the games leading scorer Devin Booker missed. 8* Phoenix |
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01-02-18 | Towson -2 v. Elon | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
8* Towson (7:00 ET): The Colonial is nowhere close to what it was in its "heyday" (w/ VCU and George Mason's Final Four runs bring the conference to nat'l prominence) and the team that has dominated the last couple seasons (UNC Wilmington) is expected to take a step back in 2018. Thus, we have ourselves yet another a wide-open race. Both teams here figure to be "players" in the CAA race, along w/ favorite (College of) Charleston. Now, that being said Towson does not come into this game playing well. They've lost three in a row, all "true" road games, including their CAA opener - at the aforementioned Charleston. Here, they play a fourth straight "true" roadie, at Elon, who won (here at home) over Drexel Saturday. Prior to the current three-game skid, Towson had started the year 10-1 SU. I still rank them as the 2nd best team in the CAA (after Charleston) despite the losses. Something to note is that the Tigers were actually favored at Pitt last week. Even though they lost, that's a lot of respect from the marketplace. The Tigers are quite battled-tested by this point as they've played only four home games (won them all). Despite that, and the three-game skid, they're still outscoring foes by an impressive 9.4 points per game. Usually, their defense is very stout (allowing 39.0 FG% for the year), but on Saturday, they let Charleston shoot above 51%. I don't see that happening again, especially not in B2B games. Elon is 5-0 SU at home after a 90-75 win over Drexel as 6.5-pt favorites. Prior to that, they went to Terre Haute and upset Indiana State as six-point dogs. So the Phoenix are playing well right now? But can they summon up a third straight quality performance? I'm not convinced. They're only +1.8 PPG despite the 9-5 SU record and Saturday's offensive showing, where they scored 90 pts on 49.1% shooting, is atypical compared to what we usually see from them. We're only two weeks removed from the Phoenix losing by 16 at Canisius and three weeks from them losing by 31 at UNC Greensboro. They scored just 95 pts - total - in those two games and shot terribly. They're also just 1-4 ATS as underdogs this season. 8* Towson |
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01-01-18 | West Virginia -2 v. Kansas State | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (5:00 ET): This is a potentially great matchup for New Year's Day w/ two of the heavyweights from the Big 12 facing off. Both won their respective conference openers, WVU over Oklahoma State and Kansas State over Iowa State. Even more impressive is that both wins came on the road. Can Bob Huggins' Mountaineers now make it B2B road wins? Well, considering they've won their last 12 games, I'd answer in the affirmative. WVU has ascended to 7th in the latest national rankings and while they may not be quite that good, I definitely have them ahead of Kansas State, whose 11-2 SU record hasn't exactly come at the expense of many good times. It's tough winning at the "Octagon of Doom," but WVY can do it. In fact, they almost did it last year, losing by only four (were -3.5). Note that after that loss, they'd go on to drub K-State in Morgantown (by 19) and then beat them again in the Big 10 Tourney. Overall, they've beaten the Wildcats in seven of the previous eight head to head meetings. As per usual, "Press Virginia" is creating a lot of turnovers; 21 per game, in fact, for the season. This is a very balanced (and deep) team that ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). Only three other teams in the country - Michigan St, Purdue and Kansas can also lay claim to that. Six different Mountaineers scored in double figures Saturday in Stillwater as they outscored OK State 46-33 in the 2nd half. Six Big XII teams currently find themselves ranked in the Top 25, but Kansas State is NOT one of them, which is somewhat telling. I don't always agree w/ the pollsters and this is one of those cases where I'm "with them" as I don't have Bruce Weber's team ranked in my top 40 despite their 11-2 SU record! Remember that they lost outright to Tulsa last month. They do hold road wins over Vandy and Iowa State, but that's about it. The win Saturday over Iowa State was KSU's first in Ames since 2011. I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat performance from junior Dean Wade, who went for a career-high 34 pts in that game. As a team, the Wildcats shot better than 55% from the floor Saturday, including 13 of 26 from three-point range (Iowa St was just 4 of 15 from 3-pt range). That also won't be duplicated. 10* West Virginia |
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12-31-17 | Wolves -2 v. Pacers | Top | 107-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (5:05 ET): There is some question as to who will exactly be suiting up here (on both sides!), but I believe that in the end, the T'wolves will have the stronger lineup, especially if Victor Oladipo can't go for the Pacers. Oladipo is currently listed as "doubtful" for Sunday's game due to a knee injury that has kept him out the last two games. Honestly, I'd be shocked if he played here as HC Nate McMilan has already gone on the record in saying Oladipo will likely be out. The results haven't been good w/o Oladipo, the team's leading scorer, as the Pacers have lost three in a row. Not only did they lose by double digits twice, but they lost to Dallas at home. Minnesota could be w/o Andrew Wiggins, but they're better built to sustain in his absence and they've been a hotter team of late. On Thursday, the T'wolves had a five-game win streak snapped in Milwaukee (lost by six). Now, that was the first game played w/o PG Jeff Teague, but that still didn't stop Minny from racing out to a 20-pt lead in the third quarter. It was their third game in four nights, so that prob helps explain why they blew the lead, contributing to a night of incredible comebacks all around the league. Despite not having Teague, the T'wolves probably still should have won that game (were outscored 27-12 in 4Q). They're better rested now (2 days off!) and it needs to be stated how this is legitimately a very good team. Minnesota has not lost B2B games since before Thanksgiving! This is the second matchup of the year between these two teams. Indiana won the 1st, 130-107, as they shot a season-best 66.7% from the floor. Needless to say, that kind of percentage isn't going to be repeated here. Furthermore, it's the Pacers that now need to be concerned about defense as they just allowed a Chicago team (that was dead last in the league in offensive efficiency) to go 18 of 39 from three-point range on Friday. It was the Pacers' fourth consecutive ATS defeat, all of them coming to subpar teams. This will be Indiana's fourth game in six nights as well. No Oladipo means trouble for the Pacers. 8* Minnesota |
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12-31-17 | Missouri State v. Valparaiso -1 | Top | 67-50 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (4:00 ET): Missouri Valley play got underway this week and in the case of Valpo, it did not go well. The Crusaders lost at Indiana State, 73-64, as one-point road favorites. But let's look at that situation, shall we? The game came at the end of a ridiculous SIX-game road swing (all "true" road games, at that), one that had taken them out to the West Coast for a couple of games prior to the Holiday break. Now, they're back at home - for the 1st time in December! I think that counteracts the fact that their opponents here, Missouri State, have been off for nine days since winning their MVC opener, 64-59 over Loyola (at home). The Bears come into this game having won 9 of 10, but I'm not ready to buy into them. I've said this before, but the Missouri Valley is wide open this year due to the departure of Wichita State. Valpo replaced the Shockers, keeping this a 10-team league, but it is Missouri State that was labeled by many as the new favorite. Tip your cap to the Bears for holding Loyola, who was thought to have the best offense in the league coming into the season, to just 59 points. The game before that, the Bears held Wright State to only 28.1% shooting. For the season, the Bears are allowing just 38.2% shooting. Therefore, it shouldn't come as much of a shock to find that the one time this year they allowed better than 50% shooting, happens to be their last loss. That was also their last "true" road game, at Oral Roberts, who went for 73 pts on 53.1% shooting. Again, Valpo has got to be thrilled to be back on campus as they are a perfect 5-0 straight up here this season and are outscoring their visitors by an incredible margin of 28.0 points per game! The Crusaders can play a little defense as well as they're holding foes to just 39.0% shooting for the year. At home, that percentage dips down to 33.0% (just 24.4% from 3-pt range!) and opponents score only 54.8 PPG here. They went just 1-5 SU on that brutal road trip, but had started out 8-0 SU before that. Note too that the Crusaders are off B2B outright losses as a favorite. In addition to being a very short favorite over Indiana State on Thursday, they were laying 6.5 to UC Riverside in a 73-60 loss on 12.20. The market still respects them though, and so do I. 8* Valparaiso |
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12-30-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Thus far, it has not been a positive West Coast swing for the Cavs as they first dropped a game to the Warriors on X-Mas Day, then came in w/ a "Holiday Hangover," losing to the lowly Kings on Wednesday. So my view is that the reigning three-time Eastern Conference Champs will be pointing to this game as a "get well spot" and thankfully the reeling Jazz will be all too kind to oblige them. Utah has dropped six of seven, the most recent loss coming by 25 pts at Golden State. They have been as bad as any team in the league this month (2-10 SU overall since December 5th), thus I'll disregard the fact LeBron and company are a money-burning 5-22 ATS as favorites this season (that eventually has to turn around, right?). Lay the points. Cleveland beat the Jazz earlier this month, 109-100, at home obviously. They didn't cover however (were laying -9.5), yet I'm a little surprised no real adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers for this rematch. As I stated above, Utah has not been good recently. Their last five losses have all come by double digits (14 or more), four of those coming by 20+! Now this is a much better team here at home and the recent schedule hasn't been kind w/ a plethora of road games. But there's no Rody Gobert either and that's had a real adverse effect on the team defense, which has allowed the L5 opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor while averaging 106.5 PPG. Cleveland is all offense, but has been shut down dramatically the L2 games. They shot a mystifying 25% from two-point range against the Warriors and then just 43.2% overall against a Sacramento team that is awful defensively. Something I've been harping on for weeks now is that the Cavs are awful defensively themselves, but that should NOT hurt them here as Utah plays at a slow pace (bottom five in possessions per game). Before getting held under 100 pts in B2B games, Cleveland had topped the century mark in 26 consecutive games. They've made 10 or more three-pointers in 20+ consecutive games. Too much offense here from the road favorite and this is LeBron James' birthday, so he should be highly motivated. This is a small number the oddsmakers have attached, so a SU win likely = a cover. 10* Cleveland |
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12-30-17 | Davidson -5.5 v. Richmond | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
10* Davidson (4:30 ET): Steph Curry's alma mater is off a 7th place finish in the Diamond Head Classic as they won their final game out on the island (Hawaii), thereby avoiding finishing last in the eight-team field. Now it's time to start Atlantic 10 play and the Wildcats do so here w/ a very favorable matchup against a Richmond squad that is struggling mightily. The host Spiders have dropped eight of nine, the lone win during that stretch coming by three over James Madison. Adding to the motivation, this is a double revenge spot for Davidson as they dropped both meetings LY, including one as 11-point home favorites on New Year's Eve. Though Richmond hasn't played in a week, they are off an OT loss (to Boston College) and a game that was actually delayed a day (weather) before that. I'm laying the points. Davidson's 91-78 win over Akron on Christmas was their best offensive effort of the month, led by Kellan Grady's career-best 30 points. In retrospect, things could have gone much better for the Wildcats out in Hawaii, but they dropped two close games, one to the host. They shot only 38.1% from the field against Hawaii and that was preceded by a last-second loss to New Mexico State (by one). That loss to NMSU was particularly brutal when you consider a second half rally had Davidson in front by seven w/ 7:35 to go (trailed by eight at halftime). Richmond is only 1-5 SU on its home court this season, largely due to the fact they are allowing visitors to shoot at a 53.3% clip here. So I'm expecting a second straight strong offensive showing from Davidson (average 79.3 PPG already) here. The Spiders are just 2-10 SU overall and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. As I mentioned earlier, they did take their last opponent (Boston College) to overtime and that came after the game vs. Bucknell was delayed a day due to weather (5" snow). Even after the long break and this still being relatively early in the season, you have to wonder what the Spiders have left to give. Right now, they project as the weakest team in the Atlantic 10, so this is a game Davidson simply MUST win if it wants to remain remotely relevant in the conference race. 10* Davidson |
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12-29-17 | Washington +11 v. USC | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
8* Washington (10:30 ET): Pac 12 play commences on Friday and this is an interesting conference to handicap. Arizona is usually the favorite here, but it is their Territorial Cup rival (Arizona State) that has taken the nation by storm as the Sun Devils are currently one of only three teams w/o a loss this year. However, it's safe to say that ASU is nowhere close to its #3 ranking in terms of true talent (I have them barely cracking the Top 25). Beyond the two Arizona teams, it's anyone's guess as right now I don't see the Pac 12 sending a ton of teams to the NCAA Tournament. USC is the presumed third-best team, but there's a gap between them and ASU and I certainly wouldn't want to be caught laying double digits w/ the Trojans in this spot. Take the points. USC is off a successful trip to Hawaii as they won the Diamond Head Classic over the Holiday. The Championship Game of that tournament was played Christmas Day w/ the Trojans prevailing 77-72 over New Mexico State. Not that the Aggies are a bad team (they aren't), but I think it speaks volumes that USC was only a four-point favorite in that spot. They won and covered all three tourney games, but two of the wins (also Akron) were by five points or less. This team struggled after Thanksgiving, losing three straight, although that was against a pretty tough competition. But, remember, they also lost here at home to Princeton (overtime). Southern Cal was tied at the half against New Mexico State and needed a Ryan Boatwright three-pointer w/ 4.1 seconds left in the game, just to pull out the SU win. I view this as an EXCELLENT spot to fade the Trojans. Washington actually comes in w/ the better non-conf record of the two as they are 10-3 as opposed to USC's 9-4. After suffering two early season losses (Providence, Va Tech), the Huskies have won eight of nine, including three straight. Like USC, there have been some close calls lately w/ two (Loyola Marymout, Montana) of those three straight wins coming by three points or less. This is actually Washington's first "true" road game of the season, but I'm expecting a closely contested affair as they're better rested having not played a game in the last week. They average a healthy 80.5 PPG. 8* Washington |
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12-29-17 | Nets v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:05 ET): Looking at the current Eastern Conference landscape and what I thought it might look like back at the start of the season, it's safe to say Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments. Now, some of that is owed to the 13-game absence of Hassan Whiteside, who returned to the lineup earlier this week. But were it not for a loss at sorry Atlanta, the Heat would be coming into this game as winners of six of seven. In Whiteside's return, they dominated a bad Orlando team on Wednesday, winning 107-89 (4th quarter scoring was mostly responsible for that MOV). They host another bad team tonight, that being Brooklyn, who has dropped seven of eight including all three on the current road trip. I'll lay the points. Brooklyn's one win in the last two weeks came by a 35-pt margin (at home) over Washington. Other than that, they've been outscored by 88 pts in the seven losses. This team is a disaster defensively as they are allowing an East-high 110.7 PPG. Three times in the last seven games, they allowed 120 or more. This is owed to the fact they play at one of the fastest paces in the league, but like fellow also-rans (the Lakers, Phoenix and Orlando), it's not really working out for them. Nor has playing Miami as the Nets are just 1-7 SU/ATS the previous eight meetings, including a loss down in Mexico City (101-89) earlier this month. I expect Whiteside to play more minutes here than he did vs. Orlando (18) and for the Heat to drastically slow the tempo of this game down. In terms of number of possessions, no team's games see fewer than this one, at least in the East. Whiteside being back will also dramatically help Miami's defense, which just gave up only 89 pts to an Orlando team that (like I mentioned earlier) likes to place "fast," just like the Nets. D'Angelo Russell remains out for the Nets, by the way. There's just "something" about Friday nights for the Heat as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS on this day this season. 10* Miami |
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12-28-17 | 76ers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:35 ET): I think we've gone from "trusting" back to questioning "the process" in Philly. Make no mistake about it, the 76ers have been built the "right way" and will eventually be a force in the Eastern Conference. But I thought oddsmakers and the public were being far too optimistic w/ a win projection approaching .500 this season. Remember, they only won 28 all of last year (against 54 losses). I did NOT think the Sixers would be a playoff team this year and sure enough, a surprisingly hot start has subsided and the team now finds itself three games below .500, even after the win on X-Mas Day over the Knicks. Prior to that, they had gone 0-5 SU and ATS their L5 games. Lay the points w/ Portland here. The Blazers have had some time off to recoup. They did not play X-Mas, nor did they play either of the L2 days. They've been off ever since a 95-92 win over the Lakers on 12.23. That was a game where the bench actually scored 41 of the 95 pts, led by Maurice Harkless' 22. I expect a MUCH better performance from the starting five tonight, especially seeing as PG Damian Lillard (DNP vs. Lakers) is expected back. Lillard ranks sixth in the league in PPG (26.2) and also missed the team's 102-85 loss to Denver on 12.22. This is a really important game for the Blazers, who have not won on their home floor since November 18th against Sacramento (lost six straight!). It's also a revenge spot as they lost out in Philly, 101-81 (as 4-pt dogs), last month. In that game, the Blazers shot only 33.3% from the field. They'll almost certainly improve upon that number tonight. This will be the third straight road game for Philadelphia, who before holding the Knicks to 98, had allowed 100+ in 15 straight games. They've actually covered five straight meetings w/ Portland, but when visiting the Moda Center are accustomed to getting more points than this. While both of these teams can expect to compete for one of the final playoff spots in their respective conferences the rest of the way, Portland is better and there's value here laying the points. Over the L5 games, the Blazers are giving up an average of only 97.2 PPG and are the much better defensive team here. 10* Portland |
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12-28-17 | Detroit +4 v. Green Bay | Top | 83-95 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
10* Detroit (8:00 ET): Horizon League play commences on Thursday and w/ Valparaiso having bolted for the "greener pastures" of the Missouri Valley, this particular conference race seems to be wide open. Well, to be fair, Oakland is probably the favorite, followed by the team that won the Conf Tourney LY, Northern Kentucky. The two teams playing here, Detroit and Green Bay, are probably "middle of the pack" teams, but that doesn't make this game any less important. Especially w/ both entering conference play having losing records. Detroit, in particular, appears to be in real trouble as they've lost SEVEN in a row. But that will have them as the more "desperate" side here and thus I'll take the points. The Titans of Detroit will play their first two Horizon League games on the road w/ a date in Milwaukee following this one, on Saturday. There are definitely some defensive issues that need fixing here - in a hurry - if they are going to have any success in the conference portion of the schedule. Giving up 89.8 PPG is not a reciepe for success and counteracts the fact they average 84.4 PPG themselves. Five of those seven straight losses have been by single digits (other two to UCLA and Michigan) and some of those could have been flipped to W's w/ some better defensive effort. Thankfully, here, they may have found the perfect opponent. Green Bay comes in shooting only 41.1% from the field for the season and was held to 60 pts in its last game. Now that last game for the Phoenix was against Wisconsin. But they also dropped their previous home game, to Bowling Green. Overall, it's four losses in the past six games and both wins were against non-board teams. In fact, Green Bay has just one win over a lined foe and it was a two-point win, as a home dog, over Eastern Illinois. So I wouldn't be in a rush to lay points w/ this team right now. They were favored in both meetings vs. Detroit LY, but failed to cover each time, once losing outright (as 5-pt road favorites). Consider that they shot better than SIXTY PERCENT in the two games combined, something they almost assuredly will NOT be doing here, and still failed to cash. These teams have a history of playing close games. All signs point to taking the points. 10* Detroit |
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12-27-17 | Raptors v. Thunder -4 | Top | 107-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Even though they are off (arguably) their biggest win of the season to date (over Houston, 112-107, on Christmas Day), I expect no letdown from the Thunder here as you should look for this team to quietly move up the standings in the Western Conference once we hit 2018. In fact, their predictable ascension has already started to take hold w/ five straight wins (7-1 SU L8) putting them into a fifth place tie (w/ Denver) entering play on Wednesday. As for the opponent, Toronto, they may have already hit peak value as they lost last night in Dallas, 98-93, snapping a six-game win streak. A weak schedule was a big reason for a 10-1 SU start to December, North of the Border. The Raptors are 16-2 SU against sub-.500 foes in 2017, but only 7-7 SU against winning teams. Lay the points. Playing in the second night of a back to back (on the road, no less) puts Toronto even more "against the wall" tonight. Yes, in the past, I've often said that teams are UNDERvalued in the second leg of a B2B and while - from a strict power ratings perspective - that appears to be the case here, looks can also be deceiving. It really can't be overstated just how weak the Raptors' recent schedule had been as they'd played struggling Philly twice, not to mention Charlotte, Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Phoenix (twice!) as well as the depleted Clippers and Grizzlies. This is a big step up in class, nevermind the fact they just lost to a bad Dallas team last night. DeMar DeRozan had one of "those nights" on Tuesday, shooting just 3 of 16 from the field and finishing w/ only eight points. As a team, the Raptors shot just 33.7% from the field. You might be thinking "well, Toronto will definitely improve on that shooting tonight." That's probably accurate, but to what degree. As I've been harping on for weeks now, OKC is #3 in the league in defensive efficiency. The "key" to this team starting worse than expected was that they went 0-5 SU in games decided by six points or less. They've since gone 9-1 SU in such contests. They're 11-3 SU overall in December, which is fairly comparable to the Raptors' record this month. Toronto isn't nearly the team on the road that they are at home while, conversely, OKC is significantly better at home than on the road. 10* Oklahoma City |
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12-27-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Arkansas -21.5 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
8* Arkansas (8:00 ET): The Razorbacks may not be ranked, but they do find themselves near the top of the "others receiving votes" category as they've only lost twice, albeit both times in blowout fashion. The first was a NCAA Tournament rematch w/ North Carolina while the other occurred in their only "true" road game to date (at Houston). Tonight should be another blowout, only this one being in their favor as they come off extended rest (last played eight days ago). The last game was another blowout that went their way, that one being a 104-69 demolition of Oral Roberts. They had no problem covering a 24-pt spread there, making it four consecutive SU and ATS wins for the Hogs. Make it five in a row here as we lay the points. They may not be ranked, but I could make a case for the Razorbacks being one of the 15 best teams in America (they are #7 in RPI!). They are top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, ranking 18th in the former. Despite the two blowout losses, they have still managed to outscore opponents by an average of 16 PPG and here in Fayatteville, that number jumps all the way up to 25.3 PPG. During the current 4-game SU/ATS win streak, they've been a favorite of 16.5 or more points three times (and obviously covered every time). Only one of their six wins has been decided by fewer than 16 pts and that was against Minnesota (who came in ranked #14), a game they covered by double digits. Coming off the layoff, I expect little to no rust as the Hogs' ATS record when playing w/ 7+ days rest is 8-2. Last time out, they led Oral Roberts by 29 at halftime. They shot nearly 60% for the game and forced 27 turnovers. I should probably mention the opponent, no? Just like Oral Roberts, CS-Bakersfield is going to be ill-equipped to deal w/ the highest scoring team in the SEC and the pressure it brings. Four times this season, the Razorbacks have forced 19+ turnovers. While the WAC contingent has been better at protecting the basketball lately, that's only b/c they've been facing a weaker slate of opponents. Earlier in the year, they turned it over 25x against Northern Arizona. Despite the weak slate, the Roadrunners have still lost 5 of 8. This is just their fifth lined opponent of the season, and EASILY the toughest, save for Arizona (whom they lost to by 32). 8* Arkansas |
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12-25-17 | Wolves v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 121-104 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Minnesota made most people's "most improved list" for this season and thus far they have not disappointed, jumping out to a 20-13 SU start, which is good enough for fourth in the rugged Western Conference. Entering this game, they have won three straight (and six of eight) despite some defensive deficiencies. We've begun to see this team favored more often, even on the road, but it hasn't treated them too well as they're just 9-14-2 ATS as chalk. On Christmas Night, they'll travel to LA and face another team that's improved from last year, albeit not by as much as the T'wolves have. But the Lakers are a tough out (6-2 ATS) and a SIGNIFICANTLY better team on the defensive end here. So I'll take the points. Last year, the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they have risen to 7th! Don't look simply at points per game allowed; the Lakers typically play higher possession games than do the T'wolves. Let's credit the defensive efficiency as the primary reason LA has jumped up closer to respectability. Yes, their record is only 11-20 SU (inverse of Minnesota!). But they've only been outscored by 2.5 points per game. Consider the T'wolves have the opposite record despite a per game point differential of only +1.7. Off a three-point loss to Portland (where HC Luke Walton called the team out for "pouting"), expect a motivated Lakers squad here. This team has recently played Golden State tough (twice!). Due to an injured quad, Brandon Ingram did not play vs. Portland, but I won't be surprised to see him in the lineup here. I just don't trust a T'wolves team that is allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% for the season to lay points away from home. They've allowed 104+ point in four consecutive games. This will also be their third consecutive road game in a six-day span. The Lakers were actually favored against Portland (closed -3), which I didn't understand, but the underdog role certainly suits them better. Sure enough, we find them at 10-4 ATS this season when taking on a team that has a winning record. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-23-17 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
10* North Carolina (1:30 ET): This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for Ohio State on Saturday afternoon in New Orleans, as part of the CBS Sports Classic. North Carolina is off a humiliating 79-75 loss to Wofford at home on Wednesday and I suspect will be "out for blood" as a result. Despite that embarrassment, I think it's still fair to consider the Tar Heels to be one of the top 10 teams in the country. They come into today WAY undervalued against an Ohio State team that has a similar record (10-3 SU) but is still not even in my top 40. The Buckeyes have played only one "true" road game so far, and while it was a very impressive win (83-58 over Wisconsin!), it was a conference game. Lay the points here in a "get well spot" for Roy Williams' team. The last time UNC lost B2B games was February of 2016. Prior to the shocker vs. Wofford, their only other loss was to #2 Michigan State and they immediately responded w/ a double digit win over another Big 10 squad, that being Michigan. Making the Wofford loss all the more perplexing is the fact UNC attempted a season-high 38 free throws in that game, even making 28. They'd won 23 straight in Chapel Hill previously, but couldn't make a shot Wednesday as they were limited to 36.4% shooting for the game. Wofford, who was picked to finish SIXTH in the SoCon, was a 25.5-pt dog and led the entire second half. Simply put, you won't see a more shocking upset the rest of this College Basketball season. Remember though; it was Sunday where I cashed these Tar Heels in an impressive road win over Tennessee. Ohio State has played only one ranked team all season and that game did not go well as they were trounced by Gonzaga, 86-59. Gonzaga is of course the team that lost to UNC in last April's National Champ Game. The Buckeyes are only 8-15 straight up, all-time, against top five foes. They have largely feasted on a weak non-conf schedule w/ most of the games taking place in Columbus. I'd say hosting William & Mary, Appalachian State and The Citadel (OSU's last three opponents) is hardly "good primer" for this nationally televised matchup. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS their last nine neutral court games while UNC is 6-1 ATS laying between 6.5 and 9 pts at a neutral setting. 10* North Carolina |
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12-23-17 | Tennessee -1 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY.... PLEASE DISREGARD! |
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12-23-17 | Harvard +4.5 v. George Washington | Top | 48-58 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* Harvard (12:00 ET): Credit the Ivy League contingent for taking on a challenging non-conf schedule as Thursday's 74-63 triumph over Boston U marked just the THIRD home game of the season to date! It's now B2B wins for the Crimson, who treated me well w/ an "ugly" 47-45 win over Fordham, all the way back on December 6th. So even though this is their second game in three days, this won't be a tired team as it's also only their second game in 17 days! Now there is some possible attrition here as two players - Bryce Aiken and Robert Baker - are both listed as questionable for this afternoon. Aiken, the team's leading scorer, injured his knee vs. Fordham and would be a big loss if he did not play. (Baker is a reserve whose presence won't matter much). Aiken or not, I like Harvard plus the points in this spot. GW snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday, but it was close as they only beat New Hampshire (non-board team) by four points. The Colonials even had to rally back from a small halftime deficit just to win the 1st ever meeting between the two schools. The team does hold an impressive upset of Temple (as 11.5-pt dogs) last month, but do not have a win by greater than 11 pts all season. Ironically, that 11-pt victory came against another Ivy League school (Princeton), but since that time GW has not shot the ball well, particularly in the losses to Penn State and Miami (both sub 37% performances). Against New Hampshire, they were actually outshot, allowing the Wildcats to connect on 52% of their field goal attempts. Meanwhile, following B2B poor shooting nights against Kentucky and Fordham, Harvard was able to regain its shooting touch by hitting 55.3% of its FG attempts vs. Boston U. Keep in mind that came w/o Aiken, which is why I'm willing to somewhat "roll the dice" here w/ the Crimson. The team's five starters made only 10 baskets against Boston U, a number which will certainly go up here, with or w/o Aiken. That will counteract any regression from the reserves, who were sensational (16 of 28 from the field!) the last game. Over the L3 seasons, Harvard has gone 11-1 ATS in the month of December (light schedule due to exams) while George Washington is 16-23 ATS the L39x it has been a favorite. 8* Harvard |
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12-22-17 | Hornets +5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-109 | Push | 0 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Things are rapidly falling apart in the "Queen City" where a Hornets team that was due to improve this season simply can't buy a break. Consider for a moment that since the start of last season, this team is 0-13 straight up in games decided by three points or less! (I shouldn't need to tell you that is - by far - the worst such record in the league during that time). Also, injuries continue to take their toll w/ Cody Zeller out indefinitely (just as Nic Batum was getting going) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist hurt his shin in the last game (listed as probable for tonight though!). The "cherry on top" has to be that HC Steve Clifford is away from the team for an indefinite period due to a "health issue." Despite everything you just read, however, I'm going in big on the Hornets tonight. Yes, they've lost 11 of 13 w/ Wednesday's 18-pt home loss to Toronto being their worst (in terms of margin) since November 25th. But they'd won their game previous to that one, 109-91 over the Knicks. The road has been unkind to Charlotte this season (2-11 SU), but despite that record they're "only" being outscored by 5.4 points per game. Milwaukee is off an emotional win (here at home) over Cleveland earlier in the week (Tuesday), but continues to play poor defense as they've allowed 115, 115, 115 and 116 pts their last four games. One positive sign for the Hornets was that reserve Jeremy Lamb scored a career-high 32 pts in the game vs. Toronto. This is the front end of a home and home between the two teams. "It's tough to beat a team two times in a row whether it's back to back like it is this week or within a couple weeks or a month," Bucks wing Khris Middleton said. That was proven true earlier this year when these teams split a pair of matchup in late October/early November, each winning on their home floor. The Hornets didn't have Batum for either matchup, but Kemba Walker scored 26 pts (on 8 of 12 shooting) in the win (126-121). Even though they lost on Wednesday, it was Charlotte's second highest scoring game this month. I believe the Bucks will come out flat tonight and their poor defense will cost them in the end. Note that they've been favored only one time in the last five games and lost that game, at home to Chicago. 10* Charlotte |
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12-21-17 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
8* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): Compared to last season, when they were still unbeaten and on their way to playing for the National Championship, Gonzaga seems a little bit "under the radar" (ranked #12). However, it should be pointed out that the 'Zags were only ranked 7th at this time last year and this year's squad has taken on a slightly more challenging schedule w/ both losses coming to Top 10 teams (at the time), one of them coming in double overtime. While that 2OT loss to Florida may look worse now, their only other defeat came at the hands of #1 Villanova at a neutral setting. The Bulldogs have had to settle for a pair of OT wins themselves, one of them against North Dakota (!) last week, but are off a 30-pt win on Monday. This may only be their 2nd "true" road game of the year tonight, but I like the Zags laying a small number. San Diego State is the opposition here and they probably can't wait to take the court, given that they've been off for 12 days and last time we saw them, they dropped a stunner (as 16.5-pt chalk) to Cal on this very floor. The Aztecs have just three losses, all of them to Pac 12 schools, and haven't been an underdog since the second game of the year (at Arizona State). However, they don't exactly have any quality wins to speak of, unless you want to count Georgia (I don't!), who I have rated as the 75th best team in the country. Defense remains the calling card here, even w/ Steve Fisher having been succeeded by long-time assistant Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs are holding opponents to 38.6% shooting and 64.2 points per game. The problem here though is Gonzaga averages 91.8 PPG on 51.4% shooting. Few teams shoot the ball better. At the same time, SDSU is only shooting 30.5% themselves from three-point range. With the five top scorers from LY's team gone, Gonzaga was expected to take a step back this year. The fact they've only lost twice says something positive about this group though and Mark Few's coaching. They blitzed IUPUI on Monday, 101-71, with Killian Tillie scoring a career-high 27 points. In their only other "true" road game thus far, the Zags crushed Washington by 27 points. I'm not sure what the deal was against North Dakota over the weekend (other than they didn't shoot well), but this spread is a bargain. 8* Gonzaga |
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12-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Both of these teams lost last night, which is par for the course. We haven't even hit the New Year yet (which is when I really start to re-evaluate my preseason projections in NBA), but suffice to say neither the Grizzlies nor Suns will be finding themselves in the playoffs in the Spring. For Phoenix, that's not a shock as they were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. "True to form," they are 11-22 SU and have the second worst point differential (Kings) overall. Memphis, a team I personally expected to take a step back in 2017-18, has been a disaster ever since PG Mike Conley went down. They actually have a worse record than the Suns (9-22 SU) as they've lost 18 of their last 20 games w/ the two wins coming a month apart and by only four points total. At home here, I believe Phoenix to have the edge and there's actually value on them in this price range. Sure, they're 4-12 SU home record is a league-worst. But note that before losing to the Clippers last night, they'd started their three-game road trip w/ B2B wins, first over Minnesota, then over Dallas. This team has not been favored in a game since 11.19 (at home vs. Chicago) and there is a chance they could close in that role here. They are 7-3 ATS here in December and 5-3 ATS this season playing in the second night of a back to back. Last night, they never led in LA (trailed by 18 at halftime) in an awful shooting night. You have to think they'll play better here against a lesser opponent. Last night was also ugly for the Grizz as they scored only 33 pts in the second half on 10 of 44 shooting (yikes!), had 17 turnovers for the game and went 12 of 31 from three-point range. This is among the very worst offensive teams in the league right now and I imagine that w/o Conley, a case could be made that they are the worst on that end of the floor. It's five straight games (and counting?) that they've been held below 100 pts, three of those 87 or less, which is almost unfathomable in today's NBA. They've been just as bad against the spread as they've been straight up since the Conley injury, going 4-15-1 at the pay window. It doesn't matter the opponent; if you don't have to lay points against Memphis right now, then you should jump on the opportunity. 10* Phoenix |
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12-20-17 | Lakers +14 v. Rockets | Top | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Playing against the Rockets may seem insane right now, but eventually they'll have to "tail off" as the current run has reached a peak of unsustainability. They come into tonight as winners of 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 overall. With Chris Paul in the lineup, they haven't lost a game all season! But tonight, while the SU result may not be in doubt, the oddsmakers have attached a very high spread for this matchup w/ the Lakers. While still not a "playoff team," the Lakers are much improved this year and will likely end up with a better record than the Clippers by season's end. They've only won two of their last 10 games, but the last two losses came against Cleveland and Golden State (by a combined 11 pts). Take the points here. When assessing the improvement of the Lakers this year, the easiest factor to identify is defense. Last year, they ranked dead last in the league in efficiency. This year, they are 8th. While the L3 games have seen them allow an average of 116.7 PPG, note that they took Golden State to overtime on Monday (tied 102-102 at the end of regulation) in an inspired effort, the night Kobe Bryant's jersey(s) were retired. The Lakers obviously covered the spread in that game, something they also did vs. Cleveland on the road. Their worst loss over these L10 games did come against Houston (by 23), back on 12.3, but they also shot really poorly in that game (38.1 FG%). That was their worst shooting effort in any game in the last month. Houston crushed Utah by 21 on Monday, their latest in a long line of blowout victories. Tonight marks their sixth straight home game, so the schedule has definitely been friendly. They are 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings w/ the Lakers, but this is a much better LA team than past years. Two of the Lakers' last three losses have come in OT and they've lost to Golden State twice by a combined six points in the last month. The Rockets eventually HAVE to slow down or have at least one slip up. Don't let Monday's final score vs. the Jazz fool you as Houston actually TRAILED going into the fourth quarter. Prior to that, they'd allowed at least 100 pts in five of six games. I believe the Lakers should easily stay within the number here. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
8* Georgetown (7:00 ET): Because so much has been made of just how weak the Hoyas' schedule has been to this point, there's going to be a desire amongst bettors to fade this team, almost blindly, on a game by game basis. Those who chose to do so on Saturday got a huge break w/ OT as Syracuse was able to prevail 86-79 as 5.5-pt chalk, handing G'town its first loss of the season. It's important to note that at no point in regulation were the Orange covering the spread, and in fact they were down by as many as 13 in the second half! It remains to be seen how HC Patrick Ewing deals w/ his first career loss, but my guess is that North Texas isn't likely to put up much of a fight here. Lay the points. Yes, Georgetown's schedule has been VERY weak. All but one of their games have been at home as they didn't even bother to play in any holiday tournaments. Their eight wins have come against teams that are currently 24-64 straight up. That being said, they have "taken care of business" against most of these lesser foes. Other than the one "true" road game they played (82-76 win at Richmond), the Hoyas have won every game by at least nine points. Now that still wasn't good enough for the oddsmakers most of the time as there were some huge spreads. But one thing I'm counting on tonight is that G'town won't be shooting 2 for 17 from three-point range. Again, mock the schedule all you want, but the Hoyas had Syracuse beat. North Texas is in the middle of a four-game trip that will take them all the way around the country. Last time out (Saturday), they upset San Diego, 86-3 as 10-pt dogs. It was the Mean Green's third consecutive victory, two of those come as dogs. Overall, they've covered their last five games, which is the exact opposite of Georgetown. But, even though they've played plenty of road games, UNT's schedule (save for Oklahoma) hasn't been that impressive either. Note that the road win they pulled off on Saturday was pretty rare. Prior to that, they'd lost seven straight "true" road games. So, what are the chances of them now winning two, back to back? Not good, I'd say and G'town is still outscoring its opponents by 15 PPG this season. There will be plenty of spots to fade the Hoyas later in the season, but this is NOT one of them! 8* Georgetown |
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12-19-17 | Auburn -4 v. Murray State | Top | 81-77 | Push | 0 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
10* Auburn (8:00 ET): The need to adapt on the fly is a prerequisite for handicapping any sport and in the case of College Basketball something very interesting has happened over the last several seasons. It seems, almost, as if "mid-majors" are getting TOO MUCH respect in games vs. teams hailing from power conferences. This mainly applies to the 1st weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but it also applies in a situation like this when the mid-major gets to play host and you have a short number. Tempting as it may be to take the home dog, in this instance Auburn happens to be significantly better than Murray State and I simply cannot justify this line being this low. Lay the points! Auburn comes into tonight w/ a 9-1 SU record and is averaging an impressive 86.0 PPG. They may not have a ton of impressive wins, but their only loss came on a neutral floor to Temple. That was over a month ago and since then the Tigers have won seven in a row, five by double digits. Now last week brought a pair of close encounters as they beat UAB by five and Middle Tennessee by six. I have Middle Tennesse rated higher than Murray State and the same holds true for Temple. So unlike Murray State, this will NOT be Auburn's most difficult opponent to date tonight. Note that the Tigers held a 17-pt lead at half over MTSU, who wound up shooting 50% from three-point range. Auburn typically shoots far better than 27.6% from behind the arc (what they shot vs. MTSU), so expect improvement in that area here. Murray State is a very good offensive team as they are currently making over 50% of their FG attempts for the year. They've outscored opponents by 17.6 points per game, but considering Auburn is +14.3 PPG against a slightly more challenging schedule, the Racers' point differential isn't all that impressive. Murray State's only loss came at St. Louis, exactly one week ago, before bouncing back w/ a 100-pt effort against Marist over the weekend. That performance is what likely has the Racers overvalued here as there's simply no way they are going to shoot 62.5% from the field again, especially against a taller and longer opponent. Also, Auburn has won its last four "true" non-conf roadies. 10* Auburn |
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12-18-17 | North Dakota State v. Arizona -22 | Top | 53-83 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Sean Millers' Wildcats certainly expected better than being on the fringes of the Top 25 coming into the season, but the real shocker for this perennial Pac 12 power is that - right now - they're not even being recognized as the best team in their own state. Arizona State (still undefeated) has caught everyone by surprise, though I assure you that the Sun Devils are certainly NOT one of the five best teams in America. In fact, were the two Territorial Cup rivals to play tomorrow, I can say w/ full confidence that Arizona would be the betting favorite. Aside from a poor showing in the Bahamas (where all three losses took place), Miller's team has been just fine and I'm looking for them to role tonight in Tucson. Arizona has won five in a row since that ill-fated trip to the Battle 4 Atlantis and many of those wins have been close (three by six pts or less). But that was against some quality competition, better than what they'll face here. Also, on Saturday, they picked up a nice win at New Mexico (Albuquerque is a tough place to pay), by 16 points, as they shot a blistering 64% from the field. Leading scorer Allonzo Trier was right near his average w/ 22 pts and making his first start of the season, Rawle Alkins scored a career-high 26 pts. Alkins being back from injury is huge as it coincides w/ a time where the team's overall depth is hurting due to injuries to a pair of reserves. Against a more formidable opponent, I might be concerned about that. But not here. North Dakota State has won B2B games, but this is massive jump up in class from last week when they beat Valley City State (non-board team) 101-58. The Bison did play another Pac 12 team (USC) tough earlier in the year, losing by only 10. But they simply lack the firepower to compete here as they're averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road, which is a far cry from the 94.8 PPG Arizona averages at home. NDSU had its own three-game losing streak shortly after Thanksgiving and it included a 34-pt loss at Mississippi State. The Wildcats will - easily - be the toughest team the Bison face all year and I just don't think they're up for the challenge. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 9-22 ATS in road games and 6-16 ATS as a dog. 10* Arizona |
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12-18-17 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Somebody break up the Bulls! What was once a "slam dunk" choice for being "worst team in the league," has all of a sudden won five straight (covered six in a row!) and beaten some good teams along the way (Boston, Utah, Milwaukee). Tonight's opponent certainly won't be the toughest they've faced during this "mini-renaissance," but considering Chicago won't go on winning forever, it's an opportune time to fade them. Plus, the spread is basically a non-factor. The 76ers have been trending in the wrong direction the last couple of weeks, going 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games, but this is a good "get well" spot after suffering some close losses, including that 3 OT affair vs. OKC Friday night. I anticipate the Sixers battling for one of the final playoff spots in the East the remainder of the year. Remember, it may not even require a .500 SU record to make the postseason in the Eastern Conference. The team started out quite well this year, getting as high as four games above .500. But right now it's fair to call them "average" as they are allowing the same number of points per 100 possessions that they are scoring. Joel Embiid will NOT play here, nor will Trevor Booker, but I still like the Sixers in the spot nevertheless. Remember, they already hold victories over both Golden State and Cleveland. While they haven't fared well off a SU loss as a favorite this season (0-5 ATS!), I suspect that will change here. Chicago's brief resurgence has been led by Nikola Mirotic, who apparently has not been "clued in" to the franchise's plan for tanking. Mirotic has averaged 25 points the L3 games, which have seen the Bulls beat the Celtics, Jazz and Bucks. Each team he has guaranteed victory. He's done so again for tonight, but this "gimmick" can only go on for so long. Before winning their last five games, the Bulls had lost 10 in a row, remember. They are still dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and are being outscored by 8.8 pts per 100 possessions. This spread should be bigger. 10* Philadelphia |
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12-17-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): The last three games, all SU wins, have nevertheless seen the Cavs fail to cover the spread. However, with one more made basket in each game, or just one more point in the case of the last two, they would be 3-0 ATS! Overall, they're just 2-7 ATS their L9, but all Cleveland fans will want to talk about is the fact the team has lost just ONCE since November 10th, going 17-1 SU in the process. Tonight, a SU win would almost certainly equate to an ATS win as the Cavs are very short road favorites over a Wizards team that has failed to cover four in a row themselves. I know this is the second game of a back to back for Cleveland, but I like them to win big here. The Cavs still need to improve pretty dramatically on the defensive end for me to buy them as a legit NBA Title contender. Granted, they could still easily win the East, but a 27th place ranking in defensive efficiency won't treat you so well when faced w/ the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals matchup. However, those are the only teams that currently rank above Cleveland on the offensive end as last night saw the Cavs shoot better than 50% for a third straight game and they beat a short-handed Utah squad, 109-100. LeBron James is having a great year, even by his standards, and just turned his 60th career triple double last night (third in the last four games!). The team has made at least 10 three-pointers in 19 consecutive games. Tristan Thompson (their best rebounder) is also back in the lineup after missing 19 games. While the Cavs continue to lean on LeBron, Washington just got back its main superstar, John Wall. In his second game back from injury, Wall scored 15 in a 100-91 win over the Clippers on Thursday. Washington would seem to have the edge here, with Wall back and having had two days off. But Cleveland has won its last three trips to D.C. and that includes one earlier this year where LeBron scored 57 points. The Cavs have been money-burners as favorites (5-0 ATS a dog!), but this is a number we can work with tonight. The Wizards are just 4-9 ATS on their home floor this season. 10* Cleveland |
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12-17-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Tennessee | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (3:00 ET): We have a Top 25 matchup Sunday afternoon in Knoxville w/ Tennessee hosting UNC. However, while the Tar Heels are probably deserving of their current #7 ranking (that's where I have them), I'm not sure I can say the same for the Vols, who to me, are a fringe Top 25 team at best. Now, it's not as if I think Roy Williams' team should be a prohibitive favorite in this spot; it's just that I believe in them winning here. Therefore, with that line of thinking, how could I resist taking them? North Carolina certainly comes into this game well-rested. They've been off since December 6th when they drubbed Western Carolina, 104-61 as 32.5-pt favorites. It was their fourth straight win, all of them coming by double digits. The Tar Heels' only loss this year was to Michigan State (at a neutral setting) where they shot an abysmal 24.6% from the floor. Despite that game, they still come in averaging an impressive 88.1 PPG, which is 15th most in the country. UNC is one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the Top 20 in offensive/defensive efficiency at KenPom. They're one of only four to rank in the Top 15 in both categories (11/14), joining the likes of Villanova, Mich State and Purdue. They have played one "true" road game previously this season and it was a rout (24 pts) of Stanford. Tennessee also has just one loss and it also came to a team currently ranked in the Top 2, in their case being #1 Villanova. That took place back on November 23rd (three days prior to UNC's only loss) and like the Tar Heels, the Vols have bounced back w/ four consecutive wins. However, three of the four wins were by 10 pts or less, including the last one (against Lipscomb). That game was played last Saturday, so Tennessee isn't quite as well-rested as their counterparts are here. Much will be made of the fact the Vols have won five straight times here in Knoxville when hosting the defending National Champion (no matter who it is). Also, HC Williams is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games if the opponent is ranked. But this is the first time UT is hosting a Top 25 opponent when ranked themselves in seven years. I think the spotlight will be "too bright" for them. 8* North Carolina |
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12-16-17 | Clippers +6 v. Heat | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Teams playing in the second night of a back to back are oft undervalued, especially when on the road, and that's what I'm banking on here as the Clippers look to bounce back from last night's nine point loss in the Nation's Capital. They still covered mind you, as they were 10.5 pt dogs against the Wizards. That makes it four straight covers for the Clips, all against Eastern Conference competition, as they are still trying to remain relevant in the wake of Blake Griffin's season ending injury. They'd won the previous three straight up as well, beating the Wiz (at home), then Toronto (also at home) and Orlando. Tonight's their third road game in four nights, but the opponent is also playing in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. Though last night they upset Charlotte, 104-98 as 5.5-pt dogs, Miami still qualifies as a disappointment so far this season, at least to me. This will also be their third game in four nights, by the way. I cashed the Under in last night's game, but note the Heat's defense strangely gets WORSE here at home where they're allowing 106.2 PPG. Overall, they have a losing record here on South Beach (5-7 SU) and are being outscored by more than five points per game. As a result, their home record at the betting window is just 2-8. Also, they've gone 1-5 ATS off a SU win as a dog this year. So maybe the spot is worse for Miami here! Neither team has won this year when playing in the second night of a back to back this year as Los Angeles is 0-4 (1-3 ATS) and Miami 0-2 (0-2 ATS). So something has to give and that's probably another argument for taking the points. I have these two teams rated dead even in my own personal power rankings, so the number being above three would seem to be incorrect. We all know the Clips have been snakebitten by injuries this season, but Miami is short-handed now too as they're w/o both Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow. Last night, the Heat's two leading scorers were Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington - two reserve guards. That's not something that can be counted upon every night. I look for Clippers' big man DeAndre Jordan to have a big night here and lead his team to a possible outright upset. 8* LA Clippers |
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12-16-17 | Oregon +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
10* Oregon (6:00 ET): Even w/ this being "true" road game #1 for the Ducks, I'm a little perplexed as to the favorite/underdog dynamic here as we have one of the Pac 12's four premier teams going up against a middle of the road group from the Mountain West. I get that Fresno State comes in having won seven in a row, but I don't exactly see a lot of heavyweights on that schedule. Sure, they've been blowing out their competition, but isn't that what you'd expect w/ the likes of Montana State, CS-Bakersfield and Ark Pine-Bluff? Due to covering only one of its previous seven games, Oregon is severely undervalued in this spot. This will be the third year in a row that these teams are going head to head. Oregon has won each of the last two years, but failed to cover each time. Still though, they were favored by 11.5 in '15 and 15.5 in '16. Granted, both of those games took place in Eugene. But has enough really changed to justify such a swing in the line? I think not. The Ducks did have a bit of trouble around Thanksgiving, dropping three of four games in eight days' time. But they've since bounced back w/ three straight wins, all at home. Wednesday marked the FIFTH time this year that they scored at least 95 pts in a game w/ an 11-pt win over Portland State. They shot 50% overall from the field, including 11 of 27 from three-point range. Another thing to like about this team is they are the best free throw shooting team in the Pac 12. Also, this will be just the second time (this year) the Ducks are dogs. They're 7-3 ATS L10 times taking points. Lest we forget that Oregon made the Final Four last season. Sure, they are down three starters from that squad, but they remain a top tier team in the top heavy Pac 12. Meanwhile, I'm not even sure that Fresno State will be a legit contender in the Mt West. The Bulldogs aren't a terribly deep team to begin with and are going to be w/o starting guard Jaron Hopkins (back injury). Hopkins is the team's second leading scorer. Furthermore, Johnny McWilliams (a reserve) is questionable w/ an ankle injury. Any kind of foul trouble would be devastating for Fresno State here as the rotation could be down to 6-7 players. Defensively, Oregon is holding its foes to just 37.8% shooting for the year. 10* Oregon |
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12-16-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA +3 | Top | 77-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
8* UCLA (3:30 ET): Having thankfully rid themselves of the Ball clan, UCLA can now fully concentrate on winning games. Even amidst all the distractions, they've been doing a pretty good job of that so far, compiling a 7-2 SU record, though one of the two losses occurred their last time out, at Michigan last Saturday. Certainly, the Bruins have had ample time to get over that loss and that's huge because today they welcome in perhaps their toughest opponent to date, in #25 Cincinnati. They're catching them at an opportune time though as the Bearcats just put an end to Mississippi State's unbeaten run earlier this week and that came after their own B2B losses, to Xavier and Florida. Take the points here as I smell an "upset." Thanks to a game vs. Montana (scheduled for 12.6) being cancelled (due to concerns over nearby wildfires), UCLA has only played one game in the L13 days. It was the aforementioned loss to Michigan, which came in OT and saw the Bruins blow a 15-pt second half lead. Turnovers were an issue as they committed 20 of them up in Ann Arbor. Interestingly enough, the Wolverines had just blown a big lead in their previous game and lost to rival Ohio State. Maybe now it's UCLA's time to "flip the script?" What we do know is the Bruins are 31-7 SU their L38 home games, including 5-0 this year w/ a MOV approaching 20 points per game. Also, they are 7-2 SU the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ five or six days rest. Cincinnati certainly deserves a better ranking than what they currently have, based on the way they played. But as alluded to above, I hate this spot for them. They had to play a tough game during the week while UCLA was off. Miss State was unbeaten in "name only" and not as tough as UCLA will be though. This is just the 2nd "true" road game for the Bearcats, who lost their first (at Xavier) by double digits. Needless to say, this trip out West is a lot longer than the one across town. The depth issue UCLA has is shared on the Cincinnati bench and though many of the names have changed, remember that the Bruins eliminated the Bearcats from LY's NCAA Tournament. 8* UCLA |
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12-15-17 | South Dakota State v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): Utah is a team that climbed to "unthinkable heights" in my own personal power rankings (as high as #6 two weeks ago!). But four straight losses, the last one coming against Chicago, have them now trending in the wrong direction and it's fair to wonder if they've peaked. Of course, "losing to Chicago" is not something the Jazz have exclusivity on in this particularly matchup as they face a Boston team that lost to the Bulls earlier in the week - by 23 points! But the Celtics have pretty clearly been a more consistent team than the Jazz through 30 games and not only that, they've been deadly at the pay window (20-8-2 ATS). They're off a win (over Denver) and at home, deserve to be favored by more here. Lay the number. Prior to losing four in a row, the Jazz had won six straight while going 6-0 ATS in the process. That win streak was snapped w/ a (100-94) loss at Oklahoma City where they at least covered as 8.5-pt pups. But since then, it's been a steady decline. They lost to both Houston and Milwaukee by double digits, then to the lowly Bulls as 5.5-pt road chalk. They actually trailed by as many as 12 points against a team that has just 7 wins all season. Joe Johnson, out since October, is now listed as probable to return tonight, but I'm not sure how much that will matter given the Jazz's road woes. They are just 2-10 SU/4-8 ATS outside of Salt Lake City this year and you can point squarely to defensive decline as the main culprit for the woes. While they allow only 95.1 PPG at home, Utah allows 106.6 PPG on the road. Boston is of course #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and also gives up just 98.0 PPG, 2nd in the league behind San Antonio. Of course, this game was to be the first meeting of Gordon Hayward against his former team, but a horrific injury on Opening Night ruined that. But instead of sinking w/o Hayward (big FA signing), the Celtics have thrived, going 24-6 SU and posting the best ATS record in the league. Given the state of their visitor tonight, they look like a "steal" laying this short of a number. 10* Boston |
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12-14-17 | Lakers +10 v. Cavs | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Cleveland has been doing a lot of winning of late (15-1 L16 games!), but until they dramatically improve on the defensive end, it will be difficult to take them seriously as any kind of legit threat to win the Larry O'Brien trophy. They still rank only 27th in defensive efficiency, which is up from early on in the season when they were at the very bottom. As a result, they're still only outscoring foes by about 3.6 points per game on the season. Their home ATS record is a money-burning 2-12 and it's not like they've been beating the "cream of the crop" during this win streak of theirs. If fact, NONE of their last 15 wins have come against a team that is more than one game above .500! So I think the Lakers keep this one closer than expected. Sticking w/ our defensive theme for a moment, the Lakers have improved dramatically in this area as they are all the way up to eighth in efficiency after ranking dead last a year ago. After opening this four game East Coast swing w/ a pair of wins (over Philly and Charlotte), LA dropped a tough one in New York Tuesday night, losing by only four as 2.5-pt dogs. It was an overtime game. While you'd maybe like to have seen them win that one, note they almost did despite leading scorer Brandon Ingram finishing w/ a season-low five points on 2 of 12 shooting. You have to figure he'll have a better night here. Cleveland has just been a terrible bet all season long, except for the select number of times they have been an underdog (5-0 ATS!). As a favorite, they're a hideous 5-17 ATS, so it should come as no shock to you to find that they are also 3-11 ATS when facing a squad that has a losing record. Five of their previous six wins have come by single digits and those were against Atlanta, Philadelphia, Memphis and Sacramento. Three of those teams (Philly the exception) are worse than the Lakers right now. When you give up 109 PPG at home for the season, it's difficult to cover large spreads such as this one. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-13-17 | Houston v. LSU +1.5 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* LSU (9:00 ET): Houston has just one loss on its resume (Drexel!), but I'm not convinced they should be a favorite tonight down in Baton Rouge. This is the time of year where "investigating" a team's record would suit you well. Not all won-loss records are "created equally" and in the case of Houston we have a team that just played its first "true" road game of the season back on Saturday. While the result, a 77-58 win, appears to be a positive sign, note that it came at the expense of lowly St. Louis. UH did drub Arkansas earlier this month (at home), but remember what I said earlier - they also lost to Drexel (as 14-pt chalk, on a neutral floor). Take the points here. LSU has played only seven games thus far and is 5-2 SU. Their losses came against Notre Dame and Marquette, two pretty good teams (especially the Irish). Those took place right before Thanksgiving and the Tigers have since bounced back w/ a pair of convincing wins, first over Tenn Martin, then over UNC Wilmington. Both were here in Baton Rouge. While Houston can certainly score "with the best of 'em" (81.7 PPG), LSU's offense has been even more prolific and at home (where they are a perfect 4-0 SU), the Bayou Bengals are averaging a whopping 96.2 points per contest! Defensively, they may have their issues, but they do rank in the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. In fact, LSU is #1 in the COUNTRY in two-point field goal percentage (63.1!) after shooting 45 of 74 from inside the arc the L2 games. This is the best start for any Houston team since the 2007-08 squad. Because of the good start, they are a threat to win 20+ games this year. But this is one that should end up being a loss. My guess is that the Arkansas game ends up being UH's "best win" by season's end. They won't be as successful defensively here as they were Saturday at St. Louis, whom they held to 58 points on 36.4% shooting. Look for LSU big-man Duop Reath to be the difference maker in this one as he is coming off a 30-point game (in only 27 minutes of action). His size (he's 6'11") will be an issue for the guard-oriented Cougars. 10* LSU |
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12-13-17 | Blazers +3 v. Heat | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:35 ET): The Blazers have hit a bit of a rough patch as they've lost five in a row while giving up 113.4 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot above 51% from the field. This is a far cry from what we saw from this team in the early part of the season as they ranked near the top of the league in defensive efficiency (still 7th!). Now, many were predicting this "downfall," noting Portland had played arguably the league's easiest schedule over the first month. The fact that they lost four in a row at home was still surprising though; just as much as losing at Golden State (no Curry) on Monday was not. But after playing the Rockets and Warriors consecutively, it's a steep drop in class in terms of opponent for tonight and I don't agree w/ the oddsmakers that Portland should be the dog here. Take the points. Given some of the numbers (and the fact the Dubs were w/o Curry), you might have thought Portland should have won Monday night in Oakland. Damian Lillard led the way w/ 39 pts, the 10th time going over 30 this season. The team made 92% of its FT attempts (23 of 25) and turned it over just nine times in the game, five fewer than GSW. So what went wrong? Well, Golden State (Kevin Durant in particular) couldn't miss as they shot 55% from the floor. To be honest, the Dubs even led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. Now, you might then be concerned over the fact Portland is now facing a team that has shot the ball at better than a 56% clip in B2B victories. But don't be. The Heat are still languishing near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (23rd) and wins over the likes of Memphis and Brooklyn should not lead to any sort of critical re-evaluation. Furthermore, the Heat are still w/o Hassan Whiteside (until January) and this is the first time they're coming off B2B wins in almost three weeks. Again, the wins came at the expense of the Nets and Grizzlies, two bad teams. Those two victories simply are not indicative of what we've seen from the Heat so far this season as they allowed sub-90 pts in both, but are still giving up 106.6 PPG at home this year. I thought this would be a better team coming into 2017-18, but the bottom line is they've been outscored and continue to have a negative net efficiency rating. They are only 2-7 ATS at home and were actually a dog at Memphis on Monday. This season has seen the Heat go a poor 1-4 ATS when off a SU win as a dog. 10* Portland |
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12-13-17 | Thunder +2 v. Pacers | Top | 100-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (7:00 ET): The big "storyline" heading into this game will be Paul George returning to Indiana to face his former team. But, for me, the issue is when (if ever?) will the Thunder start to turn things around. This has been a team, all season long, that you would think is destined to have a better record. After all, they've been outscoring their opponents by a decent margin. But 26 games into the campaign, OKC still has a losing record (12-14) and a new nadir may have been established two nights ago when they lost to a severely short-handed Hornets team, 116-103 at home. It was the Thunder's ninth consecutive ATS loss. Even though the team is just 3-10 SU on the road, I'm "buying low" here against an Indiana team that has overachieved. When the deal was made to send George to OKC in exchange for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, no one could have anticipated that the Pacers (16-11) would have the better record of the two teams more than a one-quarter of the way into the season. But they do. Oladipo himself has been a major reason for that as he's leading Indiana w/ 24.5 points per game. The Pacers have now won four straight, all here at home, including one over Cleveland where they ended the Cavs' franchise-best 13-game win streak (Cleveland's only loss in its last 16 games!). By most objective measures (point differential, net efficiency), this is probably the 4th best team in the East right now. But will this "overachievement" continue? I'm remain a little skeptical of that as this isn't a very good defensive team (allows 107.5 PPG at home!) and they're just 2-5 ATS this season after a double-digit win. Monday, they beat Denver 126-116. OKC, conversely, has been one of the biggest underachievers in the league so far. There's just no way this team should have a losing record given the talent on hand. Some of it has to do w/ bad luck. They've lost four games by three points or less and are 4-10 SU in games decided by eight points or less. (Indiana is a league-best 4-0 SU in games decided by 3 pts or less). Though they are sometimes guilty of faltering down the stretch in games, OKC's defense is still #2 in efficiency, trailing only Boston. Then there's this: when these teams met earlier in the season (October 25), the Thunder were 13-pt favorites and won 114-96. Using that 1st meeting as a baseline, it would certainly appear as if there's a TON of value on OKC for the rematch. They've got to break this ATS losing streak, right? 8* Oklahoma City |
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12-12-17 | Suns +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Even w/o Devin Booker (leading scorer), I believe the Suns can still beat the Kings in this battle of bottom three teams in the league. Just look at what happened to the Suns themselves their last time out. Facing a very depleted Spurs team, they lost 104-101. Often times, we see the marketplace overreact to an injury and that's what we have here. The Kings are very bad and probably shouldn't be favored over anyone at this point. Maybe the Bulls, if they were visiting, but w/ Chicago posting B2B wins, I now have Sacramento rated at the bottom of the league. They're being outscored by a ghastly 10.8 points per 100 possessions, which is just wretched no matter how you slice it. Getting points against the Kings is not a situation that will present itself all too often this season. In fact, this will be just their fourth game as chalk and they've gone 1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS in role so far. The Kings have not been favored by more than two points against anyone previous to tonight and two of the three instances of them as chalk came back in October. They lost both games outright, one at Phoenix. Interesting is that two of the three times they've been favored actually came on the road! The only time they've been favored since November 1st was at Chicago (12.1) and they won by exactly one point as 1-pt faves. Their lone appearance as home chalk this season came against New Orleans and they lost outright, 114-106. Though there are teams w/ worse records, no one can "match" the Kings' negative efficiency rating or YTD point differential, both of which are currently league worsts. Even w/o Booker, I expect Phoenix to be much more potent offensively than their adversary in this matchup. They come in averaging 107.1 PPG, which is the second highest average in the entire league right now! Sacramento is dead last in the league in points per game (96.1) and 29th in offensive efficiency (ahead of only Chicago). Marquese Chriss is one player that has picked up the slack in Booker's absence w/ 26 total pts in the L2 games. I expect the Suns to "push the pace" tonight as they rank 2nd in tempo league-wide while Sacramento is 28th. Note that they still won that first meeting despite attempting 22 fewer shots than the Kings! The Suns were far more efficient that day (54.5 FG%) and are likely to be again this evening. 8* Phoenix |
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12-12-17 | Monmouth v. Princeton -1 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
8* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has yet to cover a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and returns home not only looking to snap a three-game SU losing streak, but also w/ revenge on its mind. The Tigers have had plenty of time to stew over last week's 71-60 loss at GW, but perhaps foremost on their minds here will be a six-point loss to Monmouth (tonight's opponent) last season. Interestingly enough, that would be their final loss of the 2016-17 regular season as Princeton closed on a 17-game win streak (perfect vs. Ivy League!) before bowing out to Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament. They come into this year's matchup w/ Monmouth having a slightly worse record (2-6 SU) and this is their second three-game losing streak this season. But I believe the Monmouth game again signals a turnaround for the Tigers and I'll be on them tonight. Monmouth, ironically, also has lost its last three games. Unlike Princeton, they had to play over the weekend (Saturday) and it was a marquee game against Kentucky that they lost 93-76. After playing such a high-profile opponent (at a neutral site, no less!), this game is far less likely to hold the Hawks attention than it will for Princeton. Given the game vs. UK was closer to their "backyard," needless to say it was a disappointing showing for Monmouth, who shot only 37.1% from the floor while giving up 93 points. The Hawks trailed by 23 at half and it was never close. Overall, the Hawks have dropped six of seven and while three of those defeats have come by five points or fewer, they're still being outscored by 8.8 points per game away from home (whether "true" road game or neutral site). Princeton has played only three home games thus far and surprisingly they've lost two of them. Early in the year, they were favored here over BYU (-3.5), so that shows the respect they had from the books at one time. A loss here to Lehigh is what begat the current three-game slide and while scoring has been a bit of an issue for these Tigers, they are at least connecting at a 37.9% clip from behind the three-point arc. Monmouth is giving up almost 80 PPG for the year, so I feel this is the game where the Princeton offense finally breaks loose. In particular, keep an eye on senior PG Amir Bell, who got off to a similar slow start last year. Bell was shutout in 32 minutes vs. GW last week, a performance that certainly won't be repeated. 8* Princeton |
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12-11-17 | Raptors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
10* Toronto (10:35 ET): As a potential NBA Finalist, no one takes the Raptors seriously, but statistically speaking they have been superior to their main rivals in the Eastern Conference, Boston and Cleveland. In fact, only Golden State and Houston can claim a better net efficiency rating league-wide. Toronto comes into tonight's game riding a six-game win streak, the last two coming out on the road, and all but one of those victories has been by at least nine points! They won easily last night, 102-87 over lowly Sacramento. The Clippers have been beseiged by injuries (most notably Blake Griffin) and as a result are only 9-15 SU. They did win their last time out - by one over Washington - but won't be as fortunate here. Lay the points. That Clippers' win over the Wizards took place here at home on Saturday and snapped a four-game losing streak. They were catching the Wiz in a somewhat favorable spot as it was a fourth straight game out West w/o John Wall. Here, Toronto may be playing the second night of a back to back, but they are at full strength and a better team than Washington to boot. Key here is the Raptors' offensive efficiency, which ranks 3rd in the league (trailing only GSW and Houston) going up against a Clippers' defense which ranks 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Phoenix and Sacramento. The Raptors are averaging 118 points per over their last five contests and have scored at least 100 in 12 consecutive games. Toronto is running a more up-tempo approach offensively and as you can tell, it's been successful. "The new offense is coming along well," DeMar DeRozan said, according to the Toronto Star. "We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing. And we've still got a long way to go." Remember that the Clips have not posted B2B wins in over two weeks and their win Saturday came on a 30-foot three-pointer w/ one second to go in regulation. They're also 2-15 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off three or more consecutive Overs (0-4 ATS so far this season). Toronto led wire to wire last night and did so despite sub-par shooting from PG Kyle Lowry. It was a day game too; so this is NOT a "traditional" back to back. 10* Toronto |
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12-11-17 | Florida International v. South Florida -5 | Top | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* South Florida (7:00 ET): This in-state battle may lack appeal for the casual bettor, but situationally I love the spot for the short home favorite, who is off a bad loss while its visitor is off a surprise win. Both USF and FIU last played nine days ago. On December 2nd, the former lost badly up at Appalachian State, 84-61 (9-pt dogs). It was the Bulls' worst loss to date and their third in a row overall. As for FIU, they pulled a moderate upset over South Alabama that same day, winning by a shocking margin (29 points!) as two-point dogs. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing that kind of performance from the Panthers anytime soon! Note it came at home and this will be just the second "true" road game of the year for FIU. They lost the first, by 15, at WI-Milwaukee. I'm laying the short number here. Not much is expected from USF in 2017-18 as they've been predicted to finish near the bottom of the AAC. There's not a ton of offensive firepower here as they average only 63.8 PPG, but you have to figure they'll be at least a little sharper than they were their last time here in Tampa, which saw them shoot an abysmal 29.2% from the floor in 65-47 loss to Eastern Michigan. They've since followed that up w/ two losses in North Carolina, to Elon and Appalachian State. We already discussed the latter a bit and the former came by just a single point. Defensively, the Bulls are better than what they've shown the L2 games. They allow just 60.0 PPG at home and I'm counting on them holding FIU to a far worse shooting percentage than the 51.9% we saw from App State nine days ago. FIU did not shoot well in its only "true" road game to date, the aforementioned 66-51 loss to WI-Milwaukee. In that game, the Panthers shot just 35% from the floor. They've only been above 45.5% in two games all year and those happen to be the last two games. Certainly, look for them to "come back down to Earth" after the stunning showing against South Alabama, a game which saw FIU feast off turnovers and benefit from USA completely imploding down the stretch (just one FG make in final six minutes). Note FIU is just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games off an ATS win and 2-6-1 ATS their L9 off a SU win. Meanwhile, USF is 5-1 ATS following an ATS defeat. Three of FIU's four wins this year have come against non-DI foes. No doubt that USF has played the tougher schedule to date (played at Indiana) and the key here will be their defense. Also, don't discount the fact that FIU is horrible from the FT line where they shoot just 57.5%. That matters in a game that's "supposed to be" close like this one. 10* South Florida |
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12-10-17 | Celtics -1 v. Pistons | Top | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
8* Boston (4:05 ET): Thanks to its early season 16-game win streak, the Celtics have remained comfortably in front of the pack in the Eastern Conference. However, their lead has shrunk down to three games over hard-charging Cleveland, who has won 14 of its last 15. Boston is off a loss here, in a "playoff-like" game at San Antonio. The final score was 105-102 (didn't cover as 2.5-pt dogs) as Kyrie Irving's three-point attempt at the buzzer went in and out. Tonight, the C's look to avenge one of their five losses this season in a visit to Detroit where they'll find a Pistons team that has fallen on "hard times." Since beating Boston on 11.27, the Pistons have gone just 1-5 SU and they're winless (0-5) here in December. As was the case w/ Boston, there was no real shame in the Pistons' last loss, although their opponent was w/o a key contributor. While Boston lost to the Kwahi Leonard-less Spurs, Detroit lost to the Steph Curry-less Warriors on Friday, 102-98 as 5.5-point home pups. The Pistons did have the halftime lead, but were outscored 31-17 in the third quarter and did not recover. That's five straight losses and counting for a team that was an early season surprise in the East. They have wins over both the Celtics and Warriors, but it will be interesting to see how they perform in yet another instance of a top team seeking revenge against them. My guess is that this game goes pretty similar to the last one. During the course of the losing streak, Detroit is shooting only 42.3% from the field and is being outscored by 6.8 points per game. Boston is 19-7-1 ATS in all of its games this season and continues to get it done w/ defense as they are #1 in the league in points allowed (97.5 per game) and efficiency. Simply put, I would not expect a repeat of when the Pistons scored 118 pts on better than 50% shooting in last month's meeting. Boston will be w/o some minor contributors this afternoon, but Kyrie Irving is taking off the facemask and will be at full strength. The Celtics have not dropped B2B games since starting the season 0-2 and have won by an average of 17 PPG off their last two losses. 8* Boston |
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12-10-17 | Charlotte v. Tenn Chattanooga -5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
8* Chattanooga (1:00 ET): UTC was not expected to be a major player in the SoCon coming into the year and has started just 4-5 straight up. But that record could be a lot better were it not for several close decisions that went the opposite way. Three times already, the Mocs have lost a game that was decided by five points or less. That includes their last time out, a 70-66 setback at Marshall where they at least covered as eight point dogs. I think it is significant that the Mocs are favored here. Yes, it is at home, but it's also illustrative of just how weak the opponent is as well. Charlotte is 0-5 ATS right now and has dropped their last three games - SU - overall. Lay the points. Chattanooga led by six over Marshall going into the half, but could not hold the lead and lost a close one. Making the result all the more frustrating is the fact Marshall went just 1 for 16 from three-point range. They simply could not stop the Thundering Herd on the interior as Marshall finished the game a somewhat ridiculous 28 of 46 on two-point attempts. Don't count on Charlotte doing the same, however. Even w/ 31 free throws attempted (made 22), they still could not stay within 20 points of Wake Forest on Tuesday and that was at home. The 49ers finished that game at just 15 of 47 overall from the field, 31.9%. They missed 18 of 23 three-pointers as well. Typically, Chattanooga has been pretty stout at the defensive end. At least at home they are, as they've held visiting teams to an average of just 59.2 PPG on 39.4% shooting. Getting this game at home "changes everything" for the Mocs as they are 0-4 SU away from home, but 4-1 SU inside of McKenzie Arena. They are particularly sharp from behind the three-point arc here, making 43.3% of all attempts from there at home. As for Charlotte, they have issues defensively as they're giving up 79.1 points per game for the year and their two "true" road games thus far have seen them yield 83 and 87 pts. As mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not covered a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and they're also just 6-35 SU L3 seasons when priced as the underdog. Meanwhile, Chattanooga is a strong 28-5 SU its L33 home games. 8* Chattanooga |
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12-09-17 | Rockets v. Blazers +9 | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers come into tonight's game as losers of three straight and won't have center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. So that hardly makes them an ideal candidate to snap Houston's superb run, but thankfully they won't have to as the number of points we're getting from the oddsmakers here seem rather generous. Now the Rockets have been on fire since the start of November, losing only once in 15 games. They've won their last eight games - all by double digits! If any team has earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath as Golden State, it is the Rockets. But, on the road, the spread is just too high here. Take the points. For Houston, this is the end of a three-game road trip that began Sunday. As you'd expect, they had little to no problem beating the Lakers to start the trip off on the "right foot." Then, with ample time between games, they beat Utah 112-101 Thursday night. It's tough finding any deficiencies in this team's attack right now as James Harden leads the league in scoring and Chris Paul is making everyone else better (especially Ryan Anderson). But this is a big number to lay on the road, especially against a playoff caliber opponent. The last two times the Rockets had to play a 2nd road game in 3 nights, they got to face Atlanta and Memphis. This game will be a far greater challenge. Portland's three game losing streak has taken place entirely at home, which is very disappointing. This has always been a strong team at the Moda Center, so this year's 7-7 SU start makes little to no sense. I anticipate a "best effort possible" scenario tonight. Though it has a bit to do w/ a fairly weak early season schedule, the Blazers still rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. Offensively, they actually shoot better from behind the three-point line than does Houston, especially here at home (38.0%). With their backs seemingly up against a wall, I look for a strong performance out of the home dog tonight. 10* Portland |
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2 v. Ball State | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (2:00 ET): It's pretty rare to find Valpo as the underdog in this in-state battle. Each of the L2 seasons has seen them favored by about 10 pts over Ball State. Now they did lose one of those games outright (here in Muncie) and won LY's rematch by only four. But given an 8-1 SU start this year, I'm fairly shocked the Crusaders are getting points here. Well, maybe not. They did lose Thursday, at Purdue, by 30 points. But that's a result we can now use to our advantage as it has created a ton of value, in essence making Valpo a "buy low" opportunity. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Ball State is off a shocking upset of Notre Dame as 18-pt dogs in South Bend. Previous results have conspired here for an ideal situation. Admittedly, Valpo had not really played an opponent of any real consequence before venturing into West Lafayette two nights ago. But, you still would have expected more from them. Now they were actually leading the Boilermakers early. But a 21-4 run by Purdue in the 1H all but sealed the game. Valpo shot just 33% from the floor overall and 3 of 16 from behind the 3-pt line. They attempted only 12 free throws and remain winless all-time at Mackey Arena. But it's important to realize that was just one game and this team was undefeated prior to it. They are 9-1 SU the L3 seasons after a game in which they allowed 80+ points. They are also 3-0 SU/ATS this season playing for the second time in three days. The mentality of it "just being one game" also certainly applies to Ball State and what they pulled off earlier in the week. No one, most notably the Fighting Irish themselves, saw the upset of Notre Dame coming. BSU opened this season 1-4 SU, including blowout losses at Oklahoma and Oregon. They had turned things around a little w/ three straight wins heading into the ND game, but an outright win in South Bend was still shocking. The Cardinals had not beaten a nationally ranked opponent in 16 years. There was a shocking edge in rebounding there for BSU, something that is not common in their games this season. Also, they won on a last second three-pointer. Note they are still giving up over 80 PPG for the year and are just 8-22 ATS in the favorite role the L3 seasons (1-6 laying three or less at home). 8* Valparaiso |
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12-08-17 | Mavs v. Bucks -6 | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks came through for me in their last game (barely!) by outlasting Detroit 104-100 as 3.5-pt chalk. Now comes a lesser opponent, Dallas, who has not performed well on the road this season. Granted, it's still fair to call Milwaukee a "disappointment" at this juncture, seeing as they are "only" 13-10 SU and this was a team that came into 2017-18 w/ aspirations of finishing near the top of the Eastern Conference. But the Mavs would "kill" to be in the position Milwaukee is in right now, considering they're just 7-18 SU, a record which has them at the very bottom of the Western Conference. They have been competitive of late (6-1 ATS L7 games!), but all that's done is drive this line down too far. Lay the short number here. Earlier I mentioned that the Mavs haven't played well on the road this year. That's actually an understatement considering a 2-8 SU record where they've been outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Wednesday, they lost by "only" seven up in Boston (97-90), but the offense was again very bad as the team shot below 40% from the field and managed only 33 total pts in the second half. Keep in mind that the Celtics were short-handed in that spot as well (no Jaylen Brown or Marcus Morris). The Mavs are one of the worst offensive teams in the league as they rank 26th in efficiency and points per game. The Bucks' record since the Eric Bledsoe trade is 9-4 SU, so maybe better things are on the horizon and they can ascend up the Eastern Conference ladder. Against the Pistons, a poor third quarter virtually "un-did" a very good 1st half, but a fourth quarter run was able to seal the game. This is not a deep team, but the bench did show up against the Pistons. Of course, a deep bench is not necessarily needed when you have MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 32.7 PPG (on 54.5% shooting!) so far in December. I haven't even mentioned yet that this is a big-time revenge spot for Milwaukee as they were embarrassed down in Dallas last month, losing 111-79! They were actually six-point road favorites in that contest, making tonight's spread seem like an absolute steal by comparison. Jump on the home team! 10* Milwaukee |
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12-08-17 | St. John's v. Arizona State -4.5 | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (8:00 ET): There are only eight teams still w/o a loss this College Basketball season and one of the less heralded unbeatens is 7-0 Arizona State, who hosts St. John's tonight. While earlier in the week we successfully targeted a pair of (now former) unbeatens - Virginia and Nevada - I'm taking a different tact here. Certainly, the Sun Devils are going to lose sooner than later. But St. John's comes into Los Angeles tonight (this is a neutral site game) sans its second leading scorer, Marcus LoVett, who averaged a healthy 14.9 PPG. The Red Storm are a somewhat fraudulent 8-1 SU as they've yet to play a "true" road game and their only tough game (vs. Missouri) not coincidentally resulted in their only defeat. Arizona State is not only perfect straight up, they are also virtually perfect against the spread. They 'pushed' back in the season opener, which was a 20-pt win over Idaho State. Since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers w/ all but one SU victory (Kansas State) coming by double digits. And certainly there is no shame in beating Kansas State by only a bucket as that's the Wildcats' only defeat all season and the game was played in Las Vegas. The Sun Devils were even able to overcome KSU shooting 57% from the floor in that game. And then, they went on to beat a very good Xavier team, 102-86, in the Championship Game of the Las Vegas Tournament. Is ASU really the 16th best team (current AP ranking) in America? Probably not, but they've already beaten two teams that are far better than St. John's. As alluded to earlier, the Red Storm being short-handed here is the other key factor as is the fact they are making a cross-country trip while it's a relatively short "jaunt" for ASU. St. John's is very good defensively, but they struggle to shoot the ball (42.4 FG%) and that will become a bigger issue if LoVett does not play. This is a major step up from the last game where Chris Mullin's team faced Grand Canyon (on Tuesday). ASU (coached by Bobby Hurley) has been off since Saturday and shoots a far higher percentage from the field (53.1%!) than does SJU. In fact, their last game was the 1st time all season that the Sun Devils failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor or score at least 90 pts. Too much offense here. 10* Arizona State |
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12-07-17 | Texas-Arlington v. Northern Iowa -3.5 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Two typically strong mid-major programs square off tonight in Cedar Falls w/ N Iowa hosting TX-Arlington. The host Panthers, despite struggling last season, figure to be one of the big beneficiaries of Wichita State leaving the Missouri Valley for greener pastures. TX-Arlington is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Last year, the Mavericks upset both St. Mary's and Texas in non-conf play, but ultimately fell short of their goal of making the NCAA Tournament (did win conf tourney). Both programs are off to strong starts this season w/ UT-Arlington at 7-1 and Northern Iowa at 6-2. But it's the latter's defense and homecourt advantage that should prove to be the difference-makers in this one. UT-Arlington has lost just the one time (by a single point at Alabama!), but they've also been involved in a number of close games. They have three wins by exactly five points so far, including the last one, which came at home against North Texas as a 16-pt favorite. Of note is that in the last two games, the Mavericks have scored their fewest number of points in a game this season. That benchmark will again be tested tonight when they face a N Iowa team permitting only 58.5 PPG overall and just 50.0 here in Cedar Falls. Only North Carolina in the season opener has topped 68 against the Panthers. This game will arguably be decided by which team defends the three-point line better. I believe that will be the home team. Northern Iowa's only two losses this year have been to North Carolina and Villanova. That's some pretty exclusive company. They're off an extended break here, having not played since last Wednesday when they downed UNLV 77-68 (in overtime) as a one-point favorite on this floor. Perhaps RPI is an outdated metric, but it's worth noting it currently has Northern Iowa at #26 in the nation! The Panthers rank fifth nationally in scoring defense. The fact they were able to still beat UNLV, despite shooting a woeful 2 of 14 from three-point range is actually a mark in their favor. Bennett Koch led the way w/ a career-high 30 points and Tywhon Pickford is #12 in the nation in rebounding. This is a good team, that's rested and playing at home. The situation favors them. 10* Northern Iowa |
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12-06-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Coming into the season, the Bucks were thought to be a much safer "bet" than the Pistons to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. However, at least so far, Detroit has been the better of the two squads. They've opened up at 14-9 SU w/ wins over both Golden State and Boston (both on the road!). Milwaukee, meanwhile, stands at a somewhat disappointing 12-10 SU following its loss to the Celtics on Monday. But, since the Eric Bledsoe trade, things have gotten significantly better w/ the Bucks winning 8 of 12 overall. They haven't gotten to play many home games lately, so this is one they need to "make count" as it comes against a team they are not too far behind in the standings. Lay the small number. These Central Division rivals have already split a pair of early season meetings w/ each winning on its home floor. Both games took place in early November and it was a bad shooting night (35.3%) that cost the Pistons in a 99-95 loss the last time they came calling here. Interestingly enough, the Bucks were larger favorites for that game, so there's been an adjustment by the oddsmakers. While "time will tell," I still view Milwaukee as more likely to finish higher in the standings, so there's some value on them here, I suppose. I won w/ the Over in their last game (at Boston) where Giannis Antekounmpo's 40 points were not enough in a 111-100 loss. The problem was they allowed the Celtics to shoot 55% from the floor. Thankfully, the Pistons are nowhere near that prolific and average only 101.8 PPG on the road. Offensively, the Bucks have scored at least 100 pts in six consecutive games, averaging 107.5 PPG during that stretch. Detroit comes in off a tough 96-93 loss at San Antonio where they wilted late (scored only 40 pts in 2H). It was their third loss in a row as tonight marks the final chance to avoid a winless road trip. The last two games were both close, but note they did trail Philly big on Saturday before a late rally fell short. While the Pistons have been strong as underdogs so far this season (8-3 ATS), the number here is just too short to help them much and I don't see the Bucks losing. 10* Milwaukee |
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12-06-17 | Harvard -1 v. Fordham | Top | 47-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Harvard (7:00 ET): The Crimson were expected to be a contender in the Ivy League this season w/ LY's champ Princeton not expected to be as strong. But it's been a rocky start to the season. Granted, you can put blame on the fact they haven't played a home game since November 12th. (Tonight marks their eighth consecutive game away from home). But the Crimson have been favored three times in their last six outings and lost all of them. At least the majority of the games, save for ones at St. Mary's and Northeastern, were close. In fact, all but two Harvard games this season have been decided by single digits, four of them by six points or less. Tonight, it's "their turn" to win a close one. Fordham comes in w/ a 3-4 SU record despite not having played any "true" road games. They did go down to Jamaica for two games and were handled in both, including a 24-point loss to Florida State. As is the case w/ Harvard, the vast majority of the Rams' games this year have been tight ones. However, losing to East Tenn State at home was not a "great look" nor was beating Maine by only one there on Saturday. In fact, they needed OT to get by the Black Bears on what was a terrible shooting night for both teams. This is not a deep Fordham team and two players remain questionable for undisclosed reasons (Bunting, Ohams). I should also mention that Fordham has won only once in its last six tries as a home dog of three points or less. These teams met last year w/ Harvard winning by 12 (64-52) on its home floor. Fordham fell victim to dreadful shooting again, as in a 33.3 FG% overall, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range. It should be noted that Harvard has taken on a far more challenging schedule thus far, including a game at Kentucky their last time out (only lost by 9, despite shooting 37.1%). They've yet to really have a great shooting night this season, but thankfully Fordham (40.7% overall) has been even colder. Harvard did make 12 three-pointers against Kentucky. 10* Harvard |
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12-05-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 106-92 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers are catching the Wizards in the second night of B2B road games and that's an ideal time to strike considering just how awful the Wiz looked last night in Utah (lost 116-69!) and the fact they are still w/o John Wall. So what, on paper, could have very well been an "even" matchup is now anything but w/ Portland having had the last two days off to stew over a home loss to New Orleans. That actually made it B2B home loss for the Blazers, who also fell here to Milwaukee, 103-91, back on November 30th. I can't see them losing another; not w/ how wounded the opponent is here and given the situation. Lay the points. Washington has not shot well recently as they are making only 41.6% of all field goal attempts the L5 games. Quite frankly, they haven't shot the ball very well away from home all year (43.4%) and that means trouble against Portland team that holds its opponents to 43.9% shooting and is #4 in defensive efficiency. There's no two ways around it; last night was a complete disaster for the Wizards as they shot just 28.7% from the field while allowing the Jazz to shoot 56.8%. That's one of the biggest FG% discrepancies I have ever seen in a single game. It was the fewest points scored by any team in a game this season and the Wiz have now lost six of their last nine overall. This will be the 2nd time Portland has gotten to face Washington w/o Wall as they were actually the 1st opponent after the All-Star suffered his knee injury. The Blazers won by three out in D.C., which was the 2nd of B2B road games for them and near the end of a long East Coast trip. The spot is far more desirable this time around and the team will come in highly motivated after losing B2B games outright as home favorites. 10* Portland |
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12-05-17 | Nevada v. Texas Tech -5.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, so now seems like as good a time as any to start "picking them off." One of the LEAST heralded from the "lucky 13" is Nevada, who not only brings a perfect 8-0 SU record to the table, but is also 7-0-1 ATS. That push came last time out in an 11-pt win at UC Irvine. Credit the Wolfpack for playing a decent number of "true" road games to this point (this will be #5), but this marks their furthest trip East to date and it's the second in four days. Nevada may be the team that's ranked in the latest AP poll (#22), but Texas Tech is higher in virtually every reasonable power rankings system and is the deserved favorite here. They hand Nevada it's first loss tonight! Texas Tech is off its first loss, which took place Thursday against Seton Hall, who is also ranked. That game was played in Madison Square Garden and the Red Raiders (who in the interest of full disclosure, I was ON) blew a three-point halftime lead, eventually losing by 10. What was most disconcerting was the defense. Tech came into the game ranked 5th nationally in scoring defense (55.3 PPG) and 2nd in FG% allowed (33.5%). But they allowed Seton Hall to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. The Pirates accounted for the two highest scoring halves of basketball against the Red Raiders this season. I don't see a repeat of that from Nevada. Yes, the Wolfpack come in averaging a healthy 85 PPG. But now it's time for their scoring average to take a tumble as this will - easily - be their toughest test to date. Texas Tech is a deep team; 10 players average 10 minutes or more and at least 4.9 points per game. They are led by Keenan Evans' 15.9 PPG. Again, I point to the defense as Nevada isn't Seton Hall and back at home, the Red Raiders should reassert their dominance at that end of the floor. In terms of the situation, it clearly favors Texas Tech, who was off this weekend, while Nevada is playing the second of B2B road games. 10* Texas Tech |
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12-05-17 | Virginia v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): For the third straight year, these schools are renewing acquaintances and both come in ranked in the Top 20. Virginia, at #15, is one of the 13 remaining schools nationally w/o a loss. WVU, who checks in at #20 in the latest poll, lost it's first game by 23 to Texas A&M. But the Mountaineers haven't lost since and for the 1st time in the three-year span, get to host the Hoos. They're hoping for a repeat of LY when they pulled the upset in Charlottesville, 66-57 as eight-point dogs. They wound up making a run to the Sweet 16 before being ousted by eventual runner-up Gonzaga. Virginia, who two years ago made the Elite 8, was eliminated in the 2nd round by Florida. Virginia has played one "true" road game thus far, but it was in-state against Va Commonwealth. They did win and cover, 76-67 as 6.5-pt chalk, but keep in mind the Rams were early on under the direction of a 1st year HC. This will clearly be the Hoos' biggest challenge to date against a fast-paced opponent that forces 22 turnovers per game. Virginia, who has held every opponent but Va Commonwealth to below 55 pts, plays at a very deliberate pace. So the outcome here will largely depend on tempo. Again, the Cavaliers handled Va Commonwealth's pressure well, but WVU is a different animal in Morgantown where they're winning by an average of basically 40 points per game! It was an ugly opener against A&M, but since then Bob Huggins' team hasn't looked back, scoring 83 or more in every game during a seven-game win streak. They topped 100 last time out against overmatched NJIT. Virginia has covered all but one of its games, but this is a short number they're taking against an opponent that's won 33 of its past 37 home games. I see Virginia falling for the first time here as everyone's going to lose eventually and now is the Hoos' time. 8* West Virginia |
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12-04-17 | Pistons v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 93-96 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Playing severely short-handed, the Spurs very nearly knocked off the Thunder last night, losing by only three and easily covering as 8.5-point dogs. They went into the game w/o Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobili (rest) and of course Kwahi Leonard (who has yet to play this season) and then lost Kyle Anderson to what is believed to be a MCL injury. Good thing they still have the best coach in the game. Greg Popovich is no dummy and while he essentially conceded victory on Sunday, he'll have a much stronger unit on the court Monday night at home. Note that Popovich also rested Pau Gasol for the entire second half last night. All the players, with the exceptions of Leonard and Anderson, are expected back tonight. That makes this spread, at home, seem way too low. Lay it! Detroit is 0-2 on it current road swing w/ losses to Washington and Philadelphia. They trailed the 76ers by as many as 18 in the second half before a late rally started making Philly backers nervous. The Pistons are an impressive 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS vs. the Western Conference so far this season, including a win over Golden State! They've also beaten Boston. But the Spurs are a team that has given them fits through the years, especially here in San Antonio where the Pistons have won just 12 times in the last 43 years. The Spurs have swept the season series each of the last two seasons, including two double digit victories last year. Note that the Pistons lost Saturday night despite the 76ers shooting the ball at only a 40% clip. The Spurs still play outstanding defense and rebound no matter who is on the court, so they are a team that must be respected. They have actually inched slightly ahead of Boston for fewest points per game allowed in the league, though they remain slightly behind them in defensive efficiency. Based on how he coached last night, Popovich clearly was more concerned about this game and I'll put faith in that plan. With the top players returning, we should see a dramatic increase in production at the offensive end tonight as there's no way they'll shoot 40% for a second straight game. 8* San Antonio |
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12-04-17 | Iowa v. Indiana -4.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
10* Indiana (8:00 ET): Is it really time for conference play to begin? The Big 10 got an early jump with conference games starting over the weekend and has three more games on tonight's schedule, including this one in Bloomington where mediocre Indiana hosts mediocre Iowa. Both squads enter at 4-4 SU having dropped their respective Big 10 openers. For Indiana, they were in a terrible spot (coming off the Duke game) and lost at Michigan 69-55 (as 7.5-point dogs). Iowa lost at home, by four, to Penn State. Overall, the Hawkeyes have now dropped four of five including losses as favorites to LA Lafayette and South Dakota State. That makes it pretty tough to like their chances tonight in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are looking to snap their own two-game losing streak. Lay the short number. Indiana drew the "short straw" in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge having to play #1 Duke. Sharp action might have been on them, but IU failed to cover the closing number (+9), losing 91-81. The Hoosiers played the Blue Devils tough as there were 11 ties and 10 lead changes in the first half alone. But a 17-4 Duke run in the 2H sealed the game. It certainly didn't help that the Hoosiers shot only 16 of 26 from the FT line and 5 of 21 from three-point range. But then, Archie Miller's team saw its streak of three consecutive games w/ 80+ points end Saturday in Ann Arbor as they shot just 40% from the field and fell into an early hold too deep to climb out of. Oddly, IU attempted only ONE three-pointer in the entire 1H. Bottom line is that I expect them to shoot much better at home. Iowa is in far more "dire straits" than Indiana right now though. For the first time since '01, they lost at Carver-Hawkeye to Penn State, 77-73 on Saturday. Maybe, we shouldn't be all that surprised, however. The Hawkeyes were four-point underdogs in the game and as noted above, lost to both LA Lafayette and South Dakota State already. Their first "true" road game was a complete disaster as they were blown out by 24 at Virginia Tech. Still though, Iowa never led against Penn State and turned the ball over 18 times. Not good signs for this game. Nor is the fact they made only four three-pointers in their loss to the Nittany Lions. I think the three-point line will be the difference again in this one and w/ Iowa giving up over 80 PPG its last five contests, Indiana's offense gets back on track. 10* Indiana |
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12-03-17 | UCF +11 v. Alabama | Top | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
10* Central Florida (2:00 ET): Saturday marked a bit of a bittersweet day on the campus of UCF. While the football team completed an unbeaten regular season (will go to Peach Bowl) w/ a thrilling, double OT win over Memphis, at the same time it was announced that HC Scott Frost will be departing for Nebraska (not a shock). The basketball program has far less fanfare in Orlando, but Sunday will do something that the football program would love to do and that's play Alabama. You have to wonder what the pointspread would be on the football field (my guess is it would be a little higher) if these two schools met. I'm not sure what I'd do in that hypothetical matchup, but here on the basketball court Sunday, I'll be taking the points. Now the Golden Knights arrive in Tuscaloosa (first "true" road game) on a three-game losing streak and in two of the losses they were held below 50 points. But at the same time, two of the losses were by three points and the competition was pretty fierce. They played West Virginia, St. John's and Missouri, all of whom rank in my top 50. The one blowout was at the hands of West Virginia, part of the Advocare Invitational (in Lake Buena Vista), the best of the lost and in that game UCF simply could not make a shot as they finished at 24.5% overall including just 1 of 12 from three-point range. Suffice to say, they probably won't have another shooting night that bad the rest of the season. Now, defensively, there are no issues here as the Golden Knights are holding their opponents to just 37.8% shooting for the year. Taking this many points, that's huge. Alabama has just the one loss, the now-infamous game vs. Minnesota where they were down to three players and still only lost by five. They bounced back Wednesday w/ a win over Louisiana Tech, but only by three as 11.5-pt favorites. The big key here is that the Crimson Tide, a guard-oriented team, is going to have trouble stopping UCF's 7'6" monster Tacko Fall, who so far is averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Purportedly, the Tide will counter w/ Daniel Giddens, who normally does not see much playing time (only averages 2.4 pts, 2.0 rebounds in 11 minutes per game). Note that the Tide had to overcome a double digit deficit in the 2nd half just to beat La Tech earlier this week as they trailed by 11 w/ 14 minutes left. UCF is a desperate team w/ size and will be a very "tough out" Sunday afternoon. 10* Central Florida |
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12-02-17 | Syracuse v. Kansas -11.5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Kansas (5:30 ET): It's still (very) early in the season, but for my money, Kansas is the #1 team in the country. Currently, they are ranked #2, so the pollsters aren't too far off. However, I can't say the same for the oddsmakers in the spot as they have the Jayhawks favored by NOT nearly enough in a matchup w/ Syracuse down in Miami, a battle of 6-0 teams. However, as we know, "not all unbeatens are created equal" and in this instance we have an underdog that hasn't really played anybody or even had to leave the Carrier Dome (this early season philosophy has long been a hallmark under Jim Boeheim). I do NOT anticipate a repeat of the '03 NCAA Championship Game when a Carmello Anthony-led Syracuse team beat Kansas. Lay the points in this spot. Kansas' schedule hasn't exactly been a "murderer's row," but they did leave Lawrence once to beat Kentucky (Champions Classic) in the second game of the year. There were some struggles offensively in that game (only scored 65 pts) and perhaps there is some concern here going against Syracuse's trademark zone defense. But the Jayhawks are simply too talented. Thanks to averaging 94.5 PPG overall, they own the nation's top scoring differential at +33.0 PPG. All five starters are currently averaging at least 13.5 PPG. Last time out, they blitzed Toledo w/ a 30-2 run in the first half, shooting 75% from the floor en route to a 96-58 win and cover. Other than Kentucky, no opponent has even come within 34 points of the Jayhawks this season. Yes, those opponents haven't been great, but destroying them in the fashion they have is a mark in Kansas' favor. A key in this game will be three-point shooting. KU is making an astounding 45.2% of its shots from behind the arc while Syracuse is at a paltry 29.1%. Compounding this issue is the way each team defends the arc. Kansas' opponents are making just 30.3% of their 3-pt attempts while Syracuse opponents are making 34% of theirs. While Jayhawks' HC Bill Self is on the record as saying "any" of his five starters are capable of scoring 20+ (pts) on a given night, Boeheim has lamented his offense by saying "we need to start making some shots." What's been key for the Orange thus far is a massive edge in second-chance points, but that likely will not exist here against a bigger, longer opponent and given the disparity in three-point shooting, I just don't see any way Syracuse keeps this game close. 10* Kansas |
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12-01-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors may never make a NBA Finals, but as per usual, they're being undervalued in the regular season. Right now, it is they (not Boston) that can claim to have the top net efficiency rating at +7.7 per 100 possessions (Boston +6.4) in the Eastern Conference. They can also claim a better traditional (read: actual) scoring differential than the Celtics YTD. They may not have the win streaks of the Celtics (or Cavs), but this remains a top tier team in the East. Tonight, they host an Indiana team that has surprised in the early going by posting a winning record (12-10 SU) and hanging around in the top eight of the Conference. But I don't buy the Pacers as being able to even maintain their current level of production and will fade them here. Sure enough, the Pacers are off a 21-point loss in Houston Wednesday night. This is a fairly odd two-game road trip of Houston & Toronto. Now before getting blown out by the Rockets, Indiana was on a 5-1 SU/ATS run w/ the lone loss coming to Boston. They are also 5-1 ATS coming off a double-digit loss this season. But the fact they've been blown out so many times already (seven double-digit losses) doesn't really bode well for their future. Nor does the number of points they're allowing per game, which is currently 107.8. Over the L4 games, that number has grown to almost 110 PPG. Traditionally, the Pacers have NOT played well "North of the Border" as they are just 14-28 ATS their L42 visits to Toronto. The fact they attempted only SIX free throws in the game against Houston demonstrates an inability/unwillingness to get to the basket. This is a revenge game for the Raptors as well. Exactly one week ago, they blew a double-digit lead in the second half and lost 107-104. That was in Indiana though. Considering the Raptors were two-point favorites in that game, it certainly would appear there's some value on them here in this rematch. The third quarter has been an issue lately as they've blown double digit leads in three of the last four games. But Wednesday against Charlotte, they were able to bounce back in the 4Q for a comfortable 126-113 win. The good news is that this game is at home where the Raptors average an impressive 114.0 PPG. If Indiana could simply "outscore" Toronto in this situation, I'd give them more of a chance, but the bottom line is the Raptors are third in offensive efficiency while the Pacers are sixth. Plus, the Pacers were just 7 of 28 from three-point range on Wednesday. 10* Toronto |
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12-01-17 | Holy Cross v. Manhattan -1.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
8* Manhattan (11:30 AM ET): It's a very early start time over in Belfast, Northern Ireland (!) and neither of these two teams are playing well. Holy Cross has lost three straight, all by double digits, while Manhattan has done the Crusaders "one worse" by losing its last four. However, two of those defeats came by four points or less and in Sunday's loss to Fordham, they turned the ball over 25 times, which doesn't seem "repeatable." Defensively, HC is a mess as they've allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 53% from the floor and in their last game, the opponent (Albany) had 10 more FG attempts, which is how the final score got so lopsided. I look for Manhattan to have its best offensive game of the season (to date) and get the win/cover. Holy Cross shot the ball pretty well last Saturday against Albany (home game), finishing at 50%. They also had three double digits scorers. However, as I mentioned above, the problem was not only that they allowed the Great Danes to shoot 53.4%, but they also had 10 more attempts. Not surprisingly then, we find that HC was dominated on boards, getting outrebounded 32-23. The three-point line was another factor as Albany shot 47.6% from behind the arc and HC was at only 27.8%. Defense has been an issue for the Crusaders as they are giving up an average of 77.2 points per game. They have also been outrebounded in EVERY game so far. Ironically, both of these teams started their respective seasons 2-0, which included wins over Harvard by an identical final score of 73-69! Both beat the Crimson on their home floors. In both cases, our two teams here jumped out to a double digit lead and had to hold on. As I said earlier, in their last game, Manhattan turned the ball over 25 times and as a result fell to Fordham by a final score of 70-57 as 4.5-pt underdogs. If the Jaspers turn the ball over that many times again, clearly, they're going to lose. But, fortunately, TO's really hadn't been a problem in any of the first five games. Again, HC has been blown out in three straight games. This is their first lined affair, but I reckon that had the oddsmakers hung a number on any of their previous three games, they'd been 0-3 ATS. The travel isn't an advantage for either side, but I simply believe Manhattan to be the better team. 8* Manhattan |
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11-30-17 | South Carolina +1 v. Temple | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
8* South Carolina (9:00 ET): Save for a loss to Illinois State in the relocated Puerto Rico Classic, Frank Martin's Gamecocks have played pretty well this season (5-1 SU), carrying over from LY's surprise Final Four run. Not many players returned from that group, but one that did - Chris Silva - led the way Monday night w/ a career-best 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 78-61 win over FIU, the team's first "true" roadie of this campaign. All four South Carolina victories this season have been by double-digits. That's what I'm looking for tonight as they play a neutral site game vs Temple tonight in Madison Square Garden, as part of the Under Armor Reunion Doubleheader. (First game is Seton Hall vs. Texas Tech). Temple hasn't played as many games as USC (only 4) and comes in at 3-1 SU, impressive because they have yet to play an actual home game! They are, however, off their first loss, which came at LaSalle on Sunday. It was a particularly brutal setback for the Owls considering they led most of the way and even by double digits in the second half. But, over the final 10 minutes, they allowed LaSalle to score 29 points after allowing just 58 in the first 30. The key was a three-minute scoreless stretch, which allowed the Explorers to catch up. The Owls figure to struggle to score here against a South Carolina defense which is allowing only 39.5% shooting for the year, a hallmark under HC Martin. It wasn't just Silva getting the job done for South Carolina against FIU; four players scored in double figures, including Frank Booker, who has been a solid addition via transfer. Booker (came from Florida Atlantic) leads the team in three-pointers made (17) and is shooting 40.5% from the arc. He is a senior. Both of these teams have fared remarkably well in neutral site affairs recently w/ USC at 11-3 ATS L14 and Temple doing them "one better" at 12-3 L15. So there's no real edge there. But how about the fact that MSG is where South Carolina won its Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Games in LY's stunning NCAA Tourney run? Perhaps that's an edge? The Gamecocks have not allowed more than 69 pts to any opponent this season. FIU shot just 4 of 17 from three-point range against them and USC had a major edge in rebounding while forcing 17 turnovers. They are the better team here. 8* South Carolina |
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11-29-17 | Miami-FL +5 v. Minnesota | Top | 86-81 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (9:15 ET): The Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge continues on Wednesday w/ the latter currently holding a commanding 6-1 advantage. (I cashed Florida St last night, albeit barely!). The Big 10's only win thus far came in perhaps the most marquee game to date, Purdue over Louisville, last night. It's also important to remember that Michigan State did just clobber North Carolina in a non-Challenge game on Sunday. That said, I'm sticking with the ACC today. It is interesting to note that in four of the six games scheduled for tonight, the Big 10 team is favored. One of those is Miami @ Minnesota, a matchup of two unbeaten teams ranked in the top 12. For Miami, this will be the first "real" test and their first "true" road game as well. Minnesota has won at Providence, but other than that, their schedule has been pretty soft too. I'm taking the points. Given the level of competition, the "U's" scoring differential is probably what you'd expect. It's currently sitting at +25.8 points per game w/ all five wins coming by at least 11 points. Their latest, 86-65 over North Florida, came Saturday. Despite making only three three-pointers (on 15 attempts), the Hurricanes still manage to score 86 points, which is a pretty good sign. It was the the third time in four games scoring that many. I don't have much of an explanation for why they only scored 57 against LaSalle last week, but it should be noted that they did hold the Explorers w/o a single three-point FG in that game. Sophomore Bruce Brown may have "turned a corner" in the game vs. North Florida as he went for a team-high 14 pts. This is a very balanced team for HC Jim Larranaga and they have seven outright wins (in 16 overall tries) as an underdog the L3 seasons. There's only one Pitino left in the head coaching ranks and he is at Minnesota w/ Richard (Rick's son) leading the charge. The Golden Gophers are 7-0 SU and coming off wins over UMass and Alabama in the Barclays Center Classic over the weekend. While some may cite the stronger level of competition as a positive for Minnesota here, I think it could work against them as Miami has had less to deal with coming into tonight. Also, while they did dominate from start to finish against a ranked foe (Bama) on Saturday, note the Gophers only had to play against three players for a portion of the second half! Therefore, all of a sudden, a five-point win there doesn't look so impressive, does it? Minnesota has allowed 74 or more points four times already this season, which is a concern when laying points to an opponent as talented as Miami. 10* Miami FL |
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11-28-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Jazz | Top | 77-106 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:05 ET): These are two teams that figure to be fighting for the last couple of playoff spots in the Western Conference all season long. Right now, both are in the top eight w/ Denver slightly ahead at 11-8 SU (Utah 9-11). On the surface, this does NOT appear to be a great spot for the Nuggets, who are only 3-6 SU on the road (8-2 at home) and off a double-digit win (0-6 ATS in that role this season). But they are the better team here, in my opinion, and Utah is more likely to struggle moving forward w/o a key player (Rudy Gobert). The Jazz just aren't as strong (or deep) as they were last year, meaning injuries will be more difficult to overcome. Unlike Denver, who has the necessary depth to overcome Paul Milsap being out the next three months. The Nuggets beat Memphis a lot worse than the final score of 104-92 showed on Friday night as they shot better than 50% from the floor and had a 2:1 edge in rebounds. Again, that tells me that they'll be just fine w/o Milsap. Part of that has to do w/ having Nikola Jokic on the roster. In the three games since Milsap went down, Jokic has averaged 20.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists. He topped all of those averages against Memphis. Now, we know the Grizz are a downtrodden team right now, playing w/o its best player (PG Mike Conley). But guess what? Utah is not only now w/o Gobert, they're still trying to figure out how to replace the lost production from Gordon Hayward skipping town! I've been really impressed w/ how the Nuggets have dropped B2B games only one time all season. They've also been off since Friday, so they're well-rested. Utah is off a 121-108 win over Milwaukee on Saturday, their second straight w/o Gobert. But prior to that, they'd dropped 8 of 10. The Jazz's last four wins have all come at the expense of Eastern Conference foes and three of them were: Orlando, Brooklyn and Chicago. Defensively, the Jazz's numbers remain impressive (allow only 96.3 PPG), but that will be tested here by a Nuggets offense that comes in averaging 107.8 PPG. The gap here in offensive efficiency (in Denver's favor) exceeds the gap on the defensive end of the floor. The Nuggets are the better team here. 8* Denver |
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11-28-17 | Florida State -4.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Of all the matchups in this year's Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge, this one probably ranks near the bottom for most in terms of interest. However, it should be pointed out that both of these teams are undefeated, Florida State at 5-0 and Rutgers at 6-0. However, in the case of both (particularly the latter), that's a byproduct of a weak schedule. Rutgers has not even yet had to leave campus (nor are they tonight) and their opposition thus far has been every bit as poor as it reads (NY City Tech, C Conn St, Cleveland St, Coppin St, Bryant and East Carolina). FSU at least "dared" to leave Tallahassee for a short bit, playing Fordham and Colorado State in Jamaica. The Seminoles have yet to win a game by fewer than 19 pts and thus I'll lay a short number w/ them here. The 'Noles last game was an easy 113-78 win over The Citadel on Friday. Now, we shouldn't get too excited about that point total as those familiar w/ the sport will tell you that many teams score 100+ against The Citadel. However, FSU did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low 33.3% shooting. That's notable b/c LY, The Citadel led the nation in scoring. So, it was actually the effort on the defensive end that was the greater achievement there. FSU is a deep team w/ plenty of length and size. Rutgers, like The Citadel, will struggle to score in this game. Mark my words. Four of Rutgers' six games have not been lined, which should tell you about the level of competition right there. They've yet to play a team ranked higher than #245 in my own power rankings! Florida State comes in at #40 for me, so this will be quite the major step up in class for the Scarlet Knights. Yes, I'm conceding that the Seminoles haven't really played "anyone" either, but is there anyone willing to make the claim that Rutgers is the better team here? I certainly hope not. Even w/ the homecourt advantage, Rutgers won't be able to keep this one close as they're likely to be crushed on the interior by an opponent that is shooting almost 53% from the field, for the year. 8* Florida State |
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11-27-17 | Nets +17 v. Rockets | Top | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): The Nets got me yday, taking advantage of a Mike Conley-less Grizzlies team that is REALLY struggling right now, and won outright 99-88 as 5.5-point pups. It was their fifth consecutive cover (2-3 straight up). But they're certainly not getting any respect here tonight as they are huge underdogs at red-hot Houston. For my money, the Rockets are the best team in the league not named "Golden State" as they even have a better WL record than the Dubs (one fewer loss) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 10 PPG. But this spread is too high. Take the points. The Nets used a 32-18 third quarter to take the advantage for good last night in what was pretty easily their finest defensive effort of the season to date. Now, they'll clearly be tested tonight and it's not a good sign that they are allowing the second most points in the league. However, the Nets are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season against teams averaging 106 or more points per game and 7-1 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record. Last week, they covered against both Golden State and Cleveland (LY's two NBA Finalists), losing by 10 pts or less to both. They also played a very good Portland team tough on Saturday afternoon, losing by only two (127-125). The fast pace at which Brooklyn plays at might cost them tonight, but not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. For Houston, this will be the second game in a row that they are monster favorites. They couldn't cover a 19-point spread against the Knicks on Saturday, winning by "only" 15. Now they have won four straight by an average of 23.3 PPG. But eventually, those kind of margins can't be sustained. Case in point; the Rockets actually trailed the Knicks by as many as 22 points Saturday night! There was a 45-point swing that resulted in them leading by as many as 23 (crazy game!), but still, it's a dangerous way to play when you're "turning it on and off." Note the Knicks were w/o their two best players, Kristaps Porzingis and Enes Kanter, also. The Nets are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off a double digit win. 8* Brooklyn |
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11-27-17 | Alabama State +38 v. Cincinnati | Top | 51-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
8* Alabama State (7:00 ET): Normally, "best practice" when selecting an underdog, in any sport, is to have a belief that there's a chance they could take the game straight up. Clearly though, that is NOT the case here. But look at this pointspread for a minute. All we are asking for is a team NOT to lose by FORTY points! I think that's doable. And I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Cincinnati basketball team and thinks they should be ranked even higher than they currently are (#12/#13 in AP/Coaches). But coming off an impressive showing in the Cayman Islands, I look for the Bearcats to "look right past" this game as they have a huge date w/ city rival Xavier looming this weekend. Take the points. While Cincy is 6-0 SU (3-1 ATS), Alabama State finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum at 0-6 SU (0-1 ATS). Yes, their one lined game saw them getting 35.5 pts and they failed to cover, losing 114-56 at Oregon. But, let's give the Hornets some credit for trying, shall we? With the exception of their last game, the Hornets have done nothing but play "true" road games. They were hardly competitive in any of them, but other than Oregon, they didn't lose any by more than 34 points. It's certainly a "low bar" we're setting for ASU here, but that's where the oddsmakers come in. Now, the Hornets did just lose last week (101-97) to a Savannah State team that Cincy beat by 30 points. But a 61-point second half there (!) should at least give them some hope for tonight. That was a neutral site affair, by the way, played in Chattanooga, TN. Not only does Cincy have Xavier looming, but they also have dates w/ Florida, Mississippi State and UCLA coming up as well. Simply put, this game is unlikely to hold the players' interest, even though they can easily win it w/o much effort. Only twice in the L20 seasons have the Bearcats been favored in a game by more than 30 points. Also, it should be mentioned that they are playing "home games" this season off-campus, at Northern Kentucky due to their own arena undergoing renovations. Maybe that matters some? Regardless, Alabama State should be way more up for this game than Cincinnati and should keep it within 40 points. 8* Alabama State |
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11-26-17 | Texas A&M +2.5 v. USC | Top | 75-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (10:00 ET): We've got a pair of unbeatens meeting Sunday night in Los Angeles w/ USC hosting Texas A&M. The visitors will have revenge on their mind for LY's 65-63 loss in College Station where they were six-point favorites. Both teams are ranked (USC #10 and A&M #16) in the latest AP Poll while the Aggies are a few spots lower (#19) according to the Coach's (who also have USC #10). However, I have A&M rated as the better team. Tip your cap to the job Andy Enfield is doing at Southern Cal, but I'm not sure we're not "putting the cart before the horse" when it comes to this season's presumed Pac 12 favorite (along w/ Arizona). I expect payback this year from the Aggies. This will be Texas A&M's first "true" road game, but they have won at neutral sites over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Penn State. Every win so far (5-0) has come by double digits, including two nights ago at home over lowly Pepperdine (81-65). That margin was actually not close to what the oddsmakers were calling for (-28), but I think that can be chalked up to looking ahead to this game."I thought our energy wasn't very good at times, but when we needed it we were able to raise it up a level at the end," Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy said. "Winning two big games (in New York) and then coming home, we didn't play like a veteran team." It should be noted that A&M still played very good defense against the Waves, as they held them to just 38.7% shooting from the floor, including 4 of 19 from three-point range. They'll need to bring that same defense here as USC comes in shooting at a torrid 46% from three-point range in the last two contests, wins over Vanderbilt and Lehigh. Needless to say, I think A&M is going to hold them in check as shooting at that kind of rate from distance is hard to sustain anyway. Last year, the Aggies held the Trojans to just 5 of 26 shooting from three-point range. The level of competition USC has faced thus far has not been all that challenging. The win over Vandy was a "true" road game, but came by only four points. Both times the Trojans have been a home fave of three points or less under Enfield, they've lost outright. A&M has already pulled one upset this year, beating West Virginia by 23 when they were seven-point dogs. In four of the five games so far, A&M has allowed 65 or fewer points. They are #9 in defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings. That will be the difference in this one. 8* Texas A&M |
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11-26-17 | Nets v. Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 98-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* Memphis (6:05 ET): Things have unravelled in a hurry for the Grizzlies as they've lost seven straight, largely a result of losing PG Mike Conley to an achilles injury. Conley will be out for an indefinite period of time and that definitely makes it a rather "gloomy" outlook for the Grizz, who have not been able to top 94 pts in any of their last four games. This losing streak actually began when Conley was still in the lineup, but the decline in scoring came once he was injured. Help comes this evening though in the form of the Brooklyn Nets and their atrocious defense. The Nets are determined to play at a fast pace and the result of that has been them allowing an average of 114.9 points per game, second most in the league. It's telling that Memphis is still favored here. Brooklyn has lost three straight and five of their last six. In each of the L3 games, they've given up at least 118 points and all of those games ended in regulation. Now, the competition has been fierce w/ them facing the Warriors, Cavs and Blazers. But the road has been unkind to this team as their record away from the Barclays Center is 2-7 straight up as they're shooting only 43.9% from the field in those games. The line here is notable due to the fact that - usually - you'll find the Nets as a much larger underdog. They're being outscored by seven points per game away from home, so this line looks like a bargain. I had the Under in Memphis' last game as they fell at Denver, 104-92. Prior to that, they'd lost four in a row here at home. They've actually lost six straight here at the FedEx Forum, their last win coming all the way back in late October over Houston! Because they haven't covered a single spread during their seven-game skid, there's going to be value on them in the short term. Again, it is telling that they'd still be favored here. Brooklyn has been covering in defeat (4-0 ATS L4), but twice was a double-digit dog in that span. 10* Memphis |
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11-25-17 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): After having their 16-game win streak snapped Wednesday in Miami, the Celtics wasted little time in getting back into the win column as they routed Orlando last night by a score of 118-103, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. The game was a much bigger blowout than even that final indicates as Boston enjoyed a 30-point lead entering the 4th quarter. Tonight, they play another Eastern Conference foe off to a surprisingly good start, that being Indiana. The Pacers have found plenty of success at the betting window as well, covering five straight games and all of those have been SU wins as well. But, unlike in Beantown, I don't expect the winning to continue in the Hoosier State and once again the oddsmakers are undervaluing the Celtics. Lay the short number. Under Brad Stevens, Boston has typically been a great ATS team when playing on the second night of a back to back. Ironically, despite all their success vs. the number, the team is 0-2 ATS in this spot this season. However, note the situations. The first time, they were caught having to go to Milwaukee, the game after losing Gordon Hayward for the season and losing a close one to rival Cleveland on Opening Night. The second time was a trip to Atlanta where they were laying a big number. It seems as if bettors are "wanting" to bet against Boston right now, something I get (they can't go on covering like this forever), but because of this mindset, I feel oddsmakers are offering some real "soft" lines that we can take advantage of. The Celtics remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and are allowing just 95.7 points per game. Indiana also played last night, here at home, and upset the Toronto Raptors as two-point home underdogs. Now don't you think the Celtics should be bigger favorites than the Raptors? Last night's Raptors-Pacers game certainly could have gone either way (Toronto actually led by 10 at halftime) and Indiana would not have won if not for the effort from Victor Oladipo, who had a team-high 21 points. Sadly, Oladipo left in the 4th quarter w/ a knee injury and is listed as questionable to play tonight. His absence would certainly make the Pacers job a lot tougher tonight. I just can't see Indiana beating Toronto and Boston on consecutive nights and note they are allowing 107.2 PPG this year, which is tied for fifth most in the Eastern Conference. This will already be the SIXTH time the Pacers have had to play on back to back nights this season! 10* Boston |
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11-25-17 | Georgetown -4 v. Richmond | Top | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
10* Georgetown (6:00 ET): Little was expected from Patrick Ewing, perhaps the school's most famous alumnus, and Georgetown this year. But his Hoyas have started 3-0 SU w/ every win comig by at least 26 points! Now, the competition has hardly been "fierce," nor have they had to leave home. The latter changes this evening w/ a visit to Richmond, however, just like the Hoyas' previous three opponents, the Spiders should provide little resistance. They're 1-4 SU w/ three of those losses coming by double digits, two of them when favored. Consider they've already lost a game - by 33 (!) - Jacksonville State this year! Not to mention Delaware came here and won by 13. That's a pretty ominous sign for the season and I look for Ewing's chargers to remain unbeaten here. While Richmond is off a trip to the Cayman Islands (lost twice), Georgetown has been off for the last week. Last Saturday, the Hoyas beat MD-Eastern Shore 83-57. It was their third straight non-lined affair to start the season. Both Jessie Govan and Marcus Derrickson turned in double-doubles and Kaleb Johnson scored a career-high 24 points. The game was over by halftime as the Hoyas led 40-19 and they actually started the game w/ a 35-8 run! Now, we all figure that once Big East play gets underway, the Hoyas are going to struggle. But that's still a month away. Ewing is going to enjoy a grace period here no matter what (has never coached at any level), but he'd sure like to continue racking up the wins to earn further good will among the fan base. A (very) soft non-conference schedule should allow him to do so. Richmond did not do well in the Cayman Islands, meaning their backers won't be able to stash any money there. They first lost to to Cincinnati (no shame there) 75-48 as 16.5-pt dogs. Then came a loss to La Lafayette, 82-76 as seven-point dogs. That one was particularly painful as they actually led by as many as seven in the second half and by six w/ just seven minutes to go. Similar to G'town in the Big East, not much is expected from Richmond this year in the Atlantic 10. It's pretty telling that the Spiders are listed as underdogs here. They've covered only 9 of their previous 27 home games and outright losses to the likes of Delaware and Jacksonville State may mean things will get worse before they get any better. The Hoyas have covered 14 of teir last 18 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* Georgetown |
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11-24-17 | Northern Colorado v. Youngstown State +4 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
10* Youngstown State (9:00 ET): With all the Holiday Tournaments going on around the country, this game is certainly likely to be off most bettors' radar, but I think it offers some solid value on the dog. Youngstown State may be only 2-2 SU, but they've scored at least 78 pts in every game, so getting some help from the oddsmakers is a nice luxury to have. Now, the Penguins have played two lined game thus far, neither working out, even though they were the dog in both. That's because they allowed over 100 pts to both Kent and Canisius. Their two wins came at the expense of Franciscan University and Westminster (PA). But it's not as if Northern Colorado is any "great shakes" as they've twice lost by double digits, only to come back and win games at Pepperdine (by two) and over non-board team Northern New Mexico. This is a neutral site game, played in Sioux Falls as part of the Sanford Pentagon Showcase. I'll take the points. Not much is being expected from YSU this season. They finished 8th in the 10-team Horizon League last season and that's where they are being pegged again this season. They have a 1st year HC in Jerrod Calhoun, who found success at D-II Fairmont State, who he led to the title game last season. Calhoun replaces Jerry Slocum, who retired after 12 seasons on the job. There is some talent here, notably senior Cameron Morse, a two-time All-Horizon League selection. Sophomore Braun Hartfield, a Cleveland-area native, scored a career-high 31 pts in the loss to Canisius last week. Freshman Garrett Covington is off to a nice start as he scored 18 pts (career-high) in the last game and is shooting 72% from the field. He also had seven steals in the team's first win of the year. Northern Colorado is off a 39-point win, which I guess is why they are favored here, but I'm not sure they deserve to be. The Big Sky rep is just 4-10 ATS when laying points the previous three seasons. The Bears finished towards the bottom of the Big Sky last season. They don't shoot the ball particularly well (40.3 FG%), including 26.9% from three-point range. They easily could be 1-3 SU entering this game. 10* Youngstown State |
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11-24-17 | Blazers -4 v. Nets | Top | 127-125 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Portland (12:05 ET): Coming into the season, I considered seven teams to be "locks" for the postseason in the Western Conference: Golden St, Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Thus far, Portland has certainly done an admirable job of making me re-think their exclusion from the list. The Blazers come into Friday w/ a per game point differential (+4.2) that exceeds all but five teams in the league right now and that quintet consists mostly of the heavyweights you'd think it would (Warriors, Rockets, Celtics). However, all is not necessarily well in the Pacific Northwest as the team is looking to bounce back from an ugly 20-point loss in Philadelphia the other night. A visit to Brooklyn should theoretically get them back on track. Lay the short number. Brooklyn isn't horrible this season, which for them is an improvement. They just got done playing the two NBA Finalists from each of the L3 seasons (Warriors, Cavs) and more than held their own, covering each game. They're actually riding a 3-game ATS win streak coming into today. They engaged in a shootout w/ Cleveland, losing 119-109, but the game was much closer than that most of the way. It wasn't until LeBron James "went off" in the 4Q that the Cavs finally pulled away. Something to note about this Nets team is that they are playing at the fastest pace in the entire league right now. Aside from Golden State, most of the teams at the top of that list aren't very good as the fast pace has a negative effect on the defensive end. Sure enough, the Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency. It can't be overstated how massive an edge Portland has defensively in this matchup. They join Boston and Oklahoma City as the only three teams in the league that are currently allowing fewer than one point per possession (#2 in def efficiency). In more "traditional terms," they allow just 97.4 points per game (only Boston allowing less). For the sake of comparison, Brooklyn is allowing 114.2 PPG, second MOST in the league. That 17-point difference in points allowed per game looms large here. With Portland looking to bounce back from an ugly defeat, I look for them to put the clamps down this afternoon. They haven't allowed more than 101 points in a game since November 2nd. Opponents have shot 43.3% or worse from the floor in six of the last seven games. 8* Portland |
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11-22-17 | Mavs +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): At 3-15, the Mavs currently have the worst straight up record in the league. But I don't think that they're the worst team as there's a handful of teams w/ worse scoring differentials and efficiency numbers. While I by no means expect this team to make any kind of surge into contention, I do think we're now at a point where there will be some value in grabbing them plus the points. Tonight, they face a Memphis team that not only has a losing straight up record at home (4-5), but also a 2-6 ATS mark when favored. So now seems like an ideal time to test the strategy, especially w/ the Grizzlies having lost their last five in a row - SU and ATS! The reason for Memphis' slide is pretty simple. It directly coincides w/ the loss of PG Mike Conley to an Achilles injury, which figures to keep him out of the lineup for an indefinite period of time. The losing streak actually began before Conley got hurt, but in the three games (so far) w/o him, the team has averaged just 96 PPG and every loss has been at home. The shooting numbers were pretty ugly against both Houston and Portland as they went just 37.2% from the field overall, including 15 for 57 from three-point range. They were also dominated on the glass by Portland two nights ago, a game in which the Grizz fell apart late. Clearly, they really miss Conley. Dallas has experienced some hard-luck losses of late, but none moreso than what happened on Monday as they blew a 13-pt fourth quarter lead to Boston and lost in OT. Remember that Celtics team has now won 16 straight games. The Mavs have also suffered close losses to Cleveland and San Antonio. They've beaten teams such as Washington and Milwaukee this year, the latter by 32 on Saturday. They've also split two games against Memphis and that was when the Grizzlies still had Conley in the lineup. Here in Memphis, they lost by only five and that was w/ a -10 difference in FT attempts and shooting only 34.0% from the field. Led by rookie Dennis Smith Jr (14.1 PPG), I look for the Mavs to possibly pull the outright upset tonight. Take the points. 10* Dallas |
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11-22-17 | Belmont v. Providence -9.5 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
8* Providence (7:00 ET): Fresh off taking the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, Providence returns home to host mid-major "power" Belmont Wednesday night. The Friars aren't in the Top 25 currently, but are in the "Others Receiving Votes" category as their only loss so far was to #15 Minnesota. In MSG, they beat Washington and St. Louis, the latter by 27 on Friday (90-63) thanks to an incredible shooting display of 62.0% overall, including 9 of 10 from three-point range! And that Washington win is notable b/c the Huskies are the only team to have beaten tonight's opponent this season. Belmont has won four straight since losing their season opener, but the last two were far from impressive, and I don't think this line is nearly high enough. Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season and so far they've shown why they can be a player in that tough league. This is an excellent shooting team (52.3% overall) that even knocked down 79.2% of its FT's against St. Louis. That last game saw the Friars lead by as many as 31 as they assisted on 21 of their 31 made field goals. Consider they did that against a defense that had been allowing just 55.7 PPG previously. A big difference between this team and previous editions under HC Ed Cooley is the depth. Ten players played at least 15 minutes against SLU and only two are averaging more than 30 per game for the season.The Friars have won 29 of their last 37 home games. Belmont is again favored to take the Ohio Valley Conference this season, but tonight's game is a big step up in class for them after facing patsies Houston Baptist and Seattle the L2 games. Despite scoring 90+ both games, the Bruins went 0-2 ATS and even barely escaped Houston Baptist, winning by just five. It was also a close game into the 2H vs. Seattle. Now previously, they did beat a pair of NCAA Tournament teams from LY (Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee), so they've shown they are capable of stepping up. But they did lose to Washington (as two-point road favorites), who lost handily to Providence. The fact the Bruins were favored in Seattle does say something about the respect this team carries, but losing on the road was also telling. As an underdog, Belmont has dropped 12 of 17 the L3 seasons. 8* Providence |
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11-21-17 | Bulls v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Nobody (save for Lakers' diehards) is expecting much from either of these two sides this season, but at least the Lakers are giving us something this year. And what's most surprising of all is that what they are giving us - is defense! Last year, Luke Walton's team ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, but this year they've risen to a shocking fourth (were as high as third), trailing only Boston, Portland and Oklahoma City! As a result, they're a somewhat respectable 7-10 SU after Sunday's surprise win in Denver. But as you can tell from the 127-109 final, that victory was keyed by the offense, specifically Lonzo Ball, who actually shot well (shocking!) and turned in his second-career triple double. I'm going to lay the points here. Many believe Chicago is going to be the worst team in the league this year. They're deliberately tanking, but I personally think that there are a few teams that will end up w/ worse records. Currently, there are three teams w/ worse records than the Bulls - Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas - but no team in the Eastern Conference is even close to their -9.4 per game point differential. Last time out, they lost by eight at Phoenix, a significantly worse team than the Lakers. I actually played against the Bulls in that spot, noting their already hideous road play, which is seeing them get outscored by 9.1 PPG. The loss Sunday dropped them to 1-7 SU outside the Windy City. This could be a somewhat low-scoring game as it's a matchup of the 28th (Lakers) and 30th (Bulls) ranked teams in offensive efficiency. That aforementioned Lakers defense likely comes in handy here against the second worst offensive team (in terms of points per game) in all of basketball. Also, the Lakers play at a significantly faster pace than the Bulls, who are bottom six in defensive efficiency. So there's a significant edge on one end of the court for the home team as Chicago is giving up 109.1 PPG on the road. Homecourt and a big defensive edge are the keys here for LA and I think that - moving forward - Ball will start to shoot the ball much better. 8* LA Lakers |
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11-21-17 | Davidson +8 v. Nevada | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
10* Davidson (10:00 ET): This is a non-Holiday Tournament matchup on the Tuesday slate, which is the exception and not the rule. It features a Nevada team that has been a covering machine the last several seasons (47-25 ATS L72) including a perfect 4-0 to start 2017. But tonight they'll host a Davidson team that is better rested and also topped 100 pts in both of its games thus far. That has me thinking now would be an appropriate time to fade the Wolfpack. In what figures to be a high-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go here. Expect plenty of fireworks in this game. Davidson doesn't just lead the country in three-point field goals made per game (19.5), they average FOUR more makes per game than the second-best team! They have four shooters who are a threat from behind the arc. One of them, Peyton Aldridge, was called the "Larry Bird of the Atlantic 10" by Nevada HC Eric Musselman. Another, Kellan Grady, Musslman called the "best freshman in the entire country." Those two have combined to average more than 50 pts for the Wildcats. The team won its season opener, 110-62 over Charleston Southern, thanks to a school record 26 made three-pointers (on 53 attempts). Grady made seven of those in his debut. The Wildcats turned the ball over only once the entire game and led 24-0 at one point. That was followed w/ a 108-81 win over UNC Wilmington. Aldridge scored a career-high 37 pts in that one. Simply put, this team is playing too well right now to be getting this many points. While Davidson has been off for a full week, Nevada has had to play twice in the previous six days, both times on the road. They did win each, over Pacific and Santa Clara (two WCC teams), by double digits. Santa Clara, they routed by 30, 93-63. Pacific was a closer game, 89-74, though the Wolfpack led comfortably throughout. Ironically, they achieved a school record in three-pointers in that game w/ 17. These teams seem pretty similar to me, but Davidson is better at making three's and turns the ball over less. Those could very well be the keys here to an outright win, or staying within the number at the very least. Then there is the rest factor. Davidson has won each of the last three times it has played w/ five or six days' rest. 10* Davidson |
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11-20-17 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these Eastern Conference teams qualify as "pleasant surprises" early this season, although the "pleasantness" for Orlando is certainly starting to "wear off." They've lost four in a row, the most recent defeat being the worst of the season as they were blown out by FORTY here at home by the Jazz. The previous three losses all took place out on the West Coast and two of them came against Golden State and Portland. When the Magic returned home Saturday night, they were actually six-point favorites against the Jazz in a battle of teams whose nicknames do NOT end in "s." Tonight, I will go against the grain and "buy low" on Orlando as they should be highly motivated to erase the ugly memory of what happened two nights ago. Indiana is in a much different position coming into tonight. They are off an outright win over Miami, as six-point road dogs, by 25 points. That was their third straight victory, two of them upsets (they also won at Memphis). In between, I managed to cash them as a 10* at home over Detroit Friday night. But despite the respective play recently, these teams still grade out rather evenly, which is why I lean towards Orlando at home. They are much better than what they've shown of late while the Pacers are not quite as good. Indiana shot a scorching 60% from the floor against Miami while holding them to 42.2%, a discrepancy they may not get to enjoy the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Orlando is a lock to improve upon their 38.3% shooting from the last game. Indiana swept the season series from Orlando last year, going 4-0 SU and ATS, and is 7-1 SU and ATS against them the last two years. But, on paper, the Pacers are not as strong in 2017 as they have been the last couple seasons. Magic HC Frank Vogel called Saturday "our worst game of the season" and it was in fact the franchise's worst home loss ever. So they shouldn't be lacking for motivation tonight. Guard Elfrid Payton has called tonight a "must win for this group." This, to me, is a classic "buy low/sell high" situation as the Pacers aren't as good as they've looked recently while the Magic aren't nearly as bad as what they showed against Utah. 10* Orlando |
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11-20-17 | VCU v. Marquette -3.5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
8* Marquette (2:30 ET): Two "under the radar" programs that have long since stopped being under the radar clash Monday afternoon in Maui. Both VCU and Marquette enter in off home losses, but those were expected considering the competition. VCU fell to to Virginia, 76-67 as 6.5-pt dogs. The "Havoc Defense" we are accustomed seeing from the Rams just wasn't there against their bigger in-state rival as it was them that turned it over a dozen times (only forced five) and they never got closer than three in the second half. Note Virginia is not currently ranked, by the way. The team that Marquette lost to, Purdue, is however. A size disadvantage was too much to overcome for the Golden Eagles as they were crushed in the paint and lost 86-71 (only trailed by 2 at half). Marquette is patiently waiting for the 6'11" Harry Froiling, a SMU transfer, to become eligible next month. Until then, look for HC Steve Wojciechowski's team to play small ball. Sam Hauser and Markus Howard form an excellent starting backcourt. This team is more than capable of really lighting it up from three-point range w/ the addition of Andrew Rowsey, a UNC Asheville transfer that has 48 pts in two games. Off their first NCAA Tourney appearance in four years last season, the Golden Eagles likely finish as a middle of the pack team in the Big East this year. But that does not necessarily mean they are not a good team. VCU is one of only eight programs to make the NCAA Tournament each of the last seven seasons. But they have a new HC this year as Will Wade departed for LSU. Mike Rhoades was an assistant back in the Shaka Smart days, so he knows the program well. Still, the inability to force turnovers against Virginia was certainly disconcerting. Rhoades felt his team was "well prepared" for that UVA game, but if so, that's not a good thing considering the result. This is one of the weaker VCU teams in recent memory and they have lost 13 of the last 15 times (straight up) that they have been an underdog. 8* Marquette |
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11-19-17 | Temple v. Clemson | Top | 67-60 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
10* Clemson (9:30 ET): Perhaps taking a cue from the school's football team, Clemson basketball is already 4-0 this year w/ three of the wins coming by double digits. The one exception was an 81-76 win over Ohio on Thursday, but they led that game by as many as 15 pts before letting the Bobcats in through the "back door." The Tigers are averaging 82.7 PPG thus far, an impressive number. Tonight finds them as a slight favorite against a Temple team that has played only twice (both wins) and off a minor upset of Auburn on Friday. The Owls' season didn't even begin until Thursday when Clemson had already played twice by that point. I think the additional games played for the Tigers is a big edge here and I'll take them here in Charleston at a great price. This is the third time that Clemson has reached the Final Game of the Charleston Classic. It's their first time participating in the event since 2013-14, which - not coincidentally marked the last time they started a season at 4-0 SU better. This particular edition of the Tigers is not shy about hoisting three-pointers (45 attempts last two games) and was 10 of 28 from behind the arc in Friday's 78-59 win against overmatched Hofstra. While they have only two starters back from LY, the starting five accounted for 68 of the team's 78 points. Defensively, it was a strong effort as they held the Pride to only 44% shooting from the floor. This event taking place in Charleston is obviously a huge edge for Clemson. Temple has now covered 12 of its last 13 November games following a 2-0 ATS start this year. It was a "tale of two halves" against Auburn on Friday as they shot only 33.3% in the first (led by one at the break), but then 67.9% in the second and pulled away for the 88-74 win as a 2.5-pt dog. The team's first game was against Old Dominion and they won there 76-65 as a short favorite. Interestingly, it was the complete opposite of the Auburn game as they shot 51% in the first half, but only 25% in the second. So they've yet to really play a good game for 40 minutes. This will be the Owls' toughest test to date and it comes at an event where Clemson is 7-1 SU all-time, including a win over Temple in the 2008 Final! The Tigers have held three of their four opponents under 70 pts and that's huge because Temple is just 1-14 SU the L15 times it has not gone over 70 pts. 10* Clemson |
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Bryan Power Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-13-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Oregon +9 v. Arizona | Top | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
01-13-18 | Syracuse v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 90-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
01-12-18 | Grizzlies +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
01-12-18 | Nebraska +7 v. Penn State | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
01-11-18 | Oregon +8 v. Arizona State | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
01-11-18 | Clippers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 121-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
01-10-18 | Colorado v. USC -11 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show |
01-10-18 | Thunder +4 v. Wolves | Top | 88-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
01-09-18 | Georgetown +6.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
01-08-18 | Cavs -1 v. Wolves | Top | 99-127 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Hawks v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
01-07-18 | Iowa +8.5 v. Maryland | Top | 73-91 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
01-06-18 | Celtics -5 v. Nets | Top | 87-85 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
01-06-18 | North Carolina +5 v. Virginia | Top | 49-61 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
01-05-18 | Wizards v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
01-05-18 | Bulls v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 127-124 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
01-05-18 | Elon v. Northeastern -5.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
01-04-18 | Houston v. Wichita State -8.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
01-04-18 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -7.5 | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
01-03-18 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Jazz | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
01-03-18 | Oklahoma State +10 v. Oklahoma | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Hornets -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 131-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Hawks v. Suns -1 | Top | 103-104 | Push | 0 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
01-02-18 | Towson -2 v. Elon | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
01-01-18 | West Virginia -2 v. Kansas State | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Wolves -2 v. Pacers | Top | 107-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
12-31-17 | Missouri State v. Valparaiso -1 | Top | 67-50 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Cavs -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
12-30-17 | Davidson -5.5 v. Richmond | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
12-29-17 | Washington +11 v. USC | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
12-29-17 | Nets v. Heat -6.5 | Top | 111-87 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
12-28-17 | 76ers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 110-114 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
12-28-17 | Detroit +4 v. Green Bay | Top | 83-95 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
12-27-17 | Raptors v. Thunder -4 | Top | 107-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
12-27-17 | CS Bakersfield v. Arkansas -21.5 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
12-25-17 | Wolves v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 121-104 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Ohio State v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Tennessee -1 v. Wake Forest | Top | 79-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
12-23-17 | Harvard +4.5 v. George Washington | Top | 48-58 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
12-22-17 | Hornets +5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-109 | Push | 0 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
12-21-17 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
12-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
12-20-17 | Lakers +14 v. Rockets | Top | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | Top | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
12-19-17 | Auburn -4 v. Murray State | Top | 81-77 | Push | 0 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
12-18-17 | North Dakota State v. Arizona -22 | Top | 53-83 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
12-18-17 | 76ers -1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -123 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
12-17-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
12-17-17 | North Carolina -1 v. Tennessee | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
12-16-17 | Clippers +6 v. Heat | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
12-16-17 | Oregon +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
12-16-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA +3 | Top | 77-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
12-15-17 | South Dakota State v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
12-14-17 | Lakers +10 v. Cavs | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
12-13-17 | Houston v. LSU +1.5 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
12-13-17 | Blazers +3 v. Heat | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
12-13-17 | Thunder +2 v. Pacers | Top | 100-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
12-12-17 | Suns +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
12-12-17 | Monmouth v. Princeton -1 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
12-11-17 | Raptors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
12-11-17 | Florida International v. South Florida -5 | Top | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
12-10-17 | Celtics -1 v. Pistons | Top | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
12-10-17 | Charlotte v. Tenn Chattanooga -5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
12-09-17 | Rockets v. Blazers +9 | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2 v. Ball State | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
12-08-17 | Mavs v. Bucks -6 | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
12-08-17 | St. John's v. Arizona State -4.5 | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
12-07-17 | Texas-Arlington v. Northern Iowa -3.5 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
12-06-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
12-06-17 | Harvard -1 v. Fordham | Top | 47-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
12-05-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 106-92 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
12-05-17 | Nevada v. Texas Tech -5.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
12-05-17 | Virginia v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
12-04-17 | Pistons v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 93-96 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
12-04-17 | Iowa v. Indiana -4.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
12-03-17 | UCF +11 v. Alabama | Top | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
12-02-17 | Syracuse v. Kansas -11.5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
12-01-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
12-01-17 | Holy Cross v. Manhattan -1.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
11-30-17 | South Carolina +1 v. Temple | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
11-29-17 | Miami-FL +5 v. Minnesota | Top | 86-81 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
11-28-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Jazz | Top | 77-106 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
11-28-17 | Florida State -4.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
11-27-17 | Nets +17 v. Rockets | Top | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
11-27-17 | Alabama State +38 v. Cincinnati | Top | 51-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Texas A&M +2.5 v. USC | Top | 75-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
11-26-17 | Nets v. Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 98-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
11-25-17 | Georgetown -4 v. Richmond | Top | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
11-24-17 | Northern Colorado v. Youngstown State +4 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
11-24-17 | Blazers -4 v. Nets | Top | 127-125 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
11-22-17 | Mavs +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
11-22-17 | Belmont v. Providence -9.5 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
11-21-17 | Bulls v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
11-21-17 | Davidson +8 v. Nevada | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
11-20-17 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
11-20-17 | VCU v. Marquette -3.5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
11-19-17 | Temple v. Clemson | Top | 67-60 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |