Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-23-19 | DePaul +10 v. Marquette | Top | 69-79 | Push | 0 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* DePaul (8:30 ET): While it's an arguable point whether or not LSU belongs in the Top 25 right now, I think it's inarguable that Marquette is NOT the 12th best team in the country. Yet, that's exactly where the Golden Eagles find themselves this week, based on the strength of a 16-3 SU record and five-game win streak. Personally, I don't even consider Marquette a Top 25 team, so there's an argument to be had that they are the most overrated team in the country right now. Don't sleep on DePaul here as the Blue Demons just upset Seton Hall over the weekend. I'm taking the points in this Big East matchup. DePaul is 11-8 SU and coming off its second upset of Seton Hall this season. The Blue Demons won 97-93, on the road, Saturday as 7-pt pups. It was an impressive all-around performance shooting the basketball for the contingent from Chicago as they made 52.5% of their field goal attempts, including 6 of 11 from three-point range, and went 29 of 32 from the free throw line. Making the Blue Demons a force to be reckoned with is the fact that was the third outright upset they've pulled in the last four games. In addition to getting Seton Hall twice, they also went to St. John's and won. Consider that Marquette lost by 20 at St. John's, though you do have to factor in that the Johnnies were w/o their leading scorer when they faced DePaul. Marquette is 13-0 SU at home this season, putting them in a pretty exclusive class of 19 teams that are currently 10-0 SU or better on campus. Only Houston (14-0 SU) has a better home record. Certainly, that has to be a little bit intimidating for a DePaul team that is just 2-17 SU its L19 visits here. But this is an underdog that can score (77.6 PPG) and they have four different players averaging double figures. Note that Marquette's last three games have not been easy. Two were wins by four pts or less (Seton Hall, G'town) and then on Sunday, they had to come back and erase an eight-point halftime deficit (here at home) vs. Providence. 8* DePaul |
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01-23-19 | Cavs +15.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-123 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): The Cavs have been unspeakably bad for some time now as their lone win of 2019 came against the LeBron-less Lakers. They own the worst record/point differential in the league at 9-39 SU while being outscored by more than 10 points per game. They're dealing w/ injuries and the truth of the matter is that this season is going just about as poorly as the first time LeBron left them high and dry (2010). That all being said, this is simply too many points for Boston - or any other team, for that matter - to lay in a regular season contest. Take the points. The Celtics have had their own set of issues this season. Granted, it's not even comparable to what's going on in Cleveland, but w/ just the 5th best record in the East right now, they're clearly underachieving. I would not be surprised to see them move up the standings over the course of the second half of the season, but winning by a margin larger than what the oddsmakers are calling for here could prove problematic. Even as the Celtics have won four in a row coming into tonight, none of the victories have been by double digits. They're a pretty strong home team (won 9 straight here), but even so, they're "only" outscoring visitors by an average of 10.4 PPG, a far cry from tonight's pointspread. Short-handed as they might be, the Cavs will desperately want to atone for Monday's putrid performance at home vs. Chicago where they lost by 18. They'll also want revenge for a 33-point loss here in Boston earlier in the year. Believe it or not, but the Cavs do own two outright wins this year as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Boston has a home game vs. Golden State (Saturday night) to look forward to. Too much has to go right to cover a pointspread as large as this one. 8* Cleveland |
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01-23-19 | Georgia +11.5 v. LSU | Top | 82-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Georgia (7:00 ET): LSU has cracked the top 25, but I'm not entirely sure they belong there. Sure, they own a 14-3 SU record and have won seven in a row since a failed attempt at ending Houston's unbeaten run (which has since come to an end). But the Bayou Bengals haven't exactly taken on the toughest competition the SEC has to offer. Even an 87-69 win Saturday over a South Carolina team that had previously not dropped a conference game wasn't all THAT impressive when you consider the Tigers were 9-pt favorites here in Baton Rouge. I think LSU is ripe for a letdown. Georgia has taken on the best the SEC has to offer and it really hasn't gone too well for them. They are 1-4 SU in SEC play, but those losses were to Tennessee (new #1 team in the country), Kentucky (hot as anybody right now), Auburn (who I still consider a top 15 team) and Florida. In my own personal power rankings, I have all of those teams rated higher than LSU. Now UGA lost all four of those games by double digits. But they should come in very motivated tonight and with some confidence, knowing that they are a perfect 3-0 (straight up) vs. LSU the past two seasons. LSU HC Will Wade noted his team didn't handle being ranked in the polls very well earlier this year. "Human nature is to relax; human nature is to give in a little bit," he said. That's what happened after LSU started the year 5-0 SU and found itself ranked #19 in the country. They then lost their next two games, to Florida State and Oklahoma State. While the Tigers are on a 17-game home win streak (10-0 TY), the last team to beat them here in Baton Rouge was UGA, 61-60 last season. The Bulldogs played better than the final score (62-52) showed vs. Florida on Saturday as they shot almost 58% from the field (but 38% in the 2H), only to turn it over 20 times, which led to 28 pts for the Gators. Despite all that, the Dawgs were still up by five in the 2H. Take the points tonight. 8* Georgia |
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01-22-19 | Wichita State +2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 41-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (8:00 ET): What a difference a year makes. Last year, right around this time, Wichita State hosted USF and was a 29-point favorite at Koch Arena. They wound up covering that lofty spread in a 95-60 blowout win. Now, a year later, they are getting points from the Bulls in Tampa. While we know it's been a down year for the Shockers, this is a bad line in my opinion. Wichita State is coming off a tough run of games, losing to the top two teams in the American (Houston, Cincinnati) plus an OT defeat at the hands of Temple. Their one win in the last four games came as a short dog, at home though, against UCF last Wednesday. I'm taking the points here. South Florida is 12-6 SU overall, but only 2-4 SU in conference play. They are a definite "drop in class" in terms of opponent for Wichita State, who just played the four top teams in the American all in a row. With five losses in its last six games (including one out of conference to VCU), the Shockers will be a desperate team tonight. Then again, four of USF's six losses have come in the last five games. They too had a tough time against the top teams from the American as they've just lost three in a row to Temple, Cincy and Houston. Only one team can get on track here though and I think it's going to be Wichita State. South Florida shot very poorly Saturday against Houston, leading to a seven-game home win streak coming to an end. As for Wichita State's loss to Cincinnati, that was a close game (five points) before HC Gregg Marshall and freshman Erik Stevenson were both whistled for technical fouls for complaining about the officiating. Given that the Bearcats attempted 35 free throws to the Shockers' seven, maybe they had a right to complain. I thought USF was a bit lucky defensively against Houston as the Cougars didn't shoot the ball particularly well either. That came after the Bulls allowed B2B 82-point games to their two previous opponents. I'm on Wichita State here. 10* Wichita State |
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01-22-19 | Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan -1.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): Maybe I should have called this as an "oddsmakers trap" as opposed to an "error." Because I think most would be surprised to see a team w/ an unbeaten conference record (Bowling Green) getting points from a team w/ a losing record (like 8-10 Eastern Michigan). But the bottom line is that BG is a pretty fraudulent group, despite being 5-0 SU in MAC play. Granted, I tried fading them over the weekend and that certainly didn't work out as the Falcons blew out Western Michigan. But that game was also at home where they're now 10-0 SU on the year. The road has been a different story and tonight's game in Ypsilanti will be their 1st conference loss of the year. Eastern Michigan can claim a similar home vs. road dichotomy. They're a solid 7-3 SU at home this year, but just 1-7 on the road. They just lost at Buffalo over the weekend by 12, but covered the spread. As you probably know, the Bulls are the MAC's other unbeaten, but certainly far stronger than Bowling Green. Though they've lost twice to Buffalo this month, Eastern Michigan should hold its head high knowing they were 2-0 ATS vs. the #14 team in the country. The MAC slate will only get much easier from here and it should be noted that four of the Eagles' 10 losses this year have come against teams currently ranked in the top 15. Two others were to Power 5 schools. Bowling Green has lost five of the seven "true" road games it has played this year. They might be a perfect 5-0 ATS in January and 8-0 ATS since December 8th, but Eastern Michigan happens to be riding its own 4-game ATS win streak. The Falcons have played an incredibly easy schedule to this point and might already be looking ahead to a showdown (at home) vs. Buffalo that takes place next week. I am simply not a believer in this team and Eastern Michigan isn't going to shoot only 28% from the field in this game like Western Michigan did vs. BG on Saturday. Lay the short number. 8* Eastern Michigan |
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01-21-19 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Western Kentucky (9:00 ET): This line should tell you all you need to know about the current C-USA standings. Marshall is the only team in the league w/o a loss, but the Thundering Herd come in as underdogs to Western Kentucky tonight in a rematch of a game played less than 10 days ago. Obviously, Marshall was victorious the first time around, but only by 1 point (70-69) and they had to rally back from a 15-point deficit. WKU is the better team here and should get its revenge tonight in Bowling Green. Lay the points. Western Kentucky knows it let one slip away in Huntington and thus should come out highly motivated this evening. The disappointment from losing to Marshall the first time seemed to carry over into the Hilltoppers' next game, also a one-point loss, where they were 10-pt favorites over Florida International. Then again, that was a game WKU led by as many as 16 - at home. That not only made it B2B 1-pt losses, but three straight by three points or less. Finally, the Hilltoppers were able to get back into the win column on Saturday, defeating FAU 72-66 in their own come from behind effort. WKU is better than its 9-9 record as its last six losses have all been by six points or less. Marshall has had just the opposite luck in close games. That 70-69 win over Western Kentucky was their third straight win by three points or less at the time and second straight by exactly one point. In their last road game, they were only able to defeat Charlotte (last place team in C-USA) 85-84. The Herd are also off a week where they played both FAU and FIU (just in the reverse order). They gave up plenty of points in both games, including 97 to FIU on Saturday. That marked the SIXTH time this season that they've allowed 90 pts in a game! Marshall has just been awful defensively on the road, giving up 88.0 PPG for the year and they rank an atrocious 221st in the country in defensive efficiency. I rate them only as the 4th best team in C-USA w/ WKU as one of the three that are better. 10* Western Kentucky |
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01-21-19 | Rockets +5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-121 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): I think the better team is getting points in this one. James Harden has been on an all-time great run in terms of scoring, leading the Rockets to a 15-5 SU record in their last 20 games. Harden has scored 40 or more points in 10 of the last 13 games, including 48 in a wild come from behind victory out in Los Angeles Saturday night. Facing the LeBron-less Lakers, Houston trailed by as many as 21 before coming back to win the game in OT, 138-134. While falling into such a deep hole against a bad team doesn't exactly inspire confidence, this is a rare spot where the Rockets are getting points and I'll take advantage as Philadelphia remains overrated from where I sit. The Sixers are coming off a loss Saturday afternoon to Oklahoma City. I played against them in that spot too, noting they were laying points to a better team. It ended up being just their 5th home loss of the year as Paul George saved the day for the Thunder w/ a four-point play in the final seconds. While that game ended up being close, note OKC led virtually the entire way and by as many as 16 in the first quarter. That terrible start ultimately doomed them. While the Sixers aren't likely to fall into such a deep early hole again tonight, the same can be said for the Rockets as it pertains to their previous effort. With a red-hot Harden, I expect the Rockets to shoot a lot better tonight than they have in the last two games. Houston has actually played two straight overtime games as they lost to Brooklyn last Wednesday, 145-142 despite 58 from Harden. I don't think the B2B OT games will be much of a factor here as the Rockets have only played twice in the last five days. I mentioned earlier that its rare to find them as underdogs. The only time they've been a dog of more than two points in the last month was at Golden State (were +9) and they won that game outright. I just don't think Philly should be favored by this many against what I still view as a superior team, even at home. Take the points. 8* Houston |
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01-21-19 | Bulls v. Cavs +2 | Top | 104-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I honestly thought the Cavs might be favored here. There's certainly an argument that they should. While it's true Cleveland is the worst team in the league right now, Chicago isn't much better. In fact, I'd consider the Bulls to be the second worst team w/ a power rating that's just a "touch" better. The Cavs are dealing w/ some injuries right now and just finished up a tough road trip w/ B2B blowout losses at the hands of Utah and Denver. But Chicago isn't fully healthy right now either and the Cavs likely remember suffering a 20-point loss here on their home floor right before X-Mas. They'll get their revenge here. Take the points. Since beating the Cavs here on 12.23, the Bulls have dropped 10 straight and 11 of 12 overall. Tuesday's loss to the Lakers proved more costly than usual as Wendell Carter Jr tore ligaments in his thumb and is probably done for the season. Since losing Carter, the Bulls have lost by 30 to Denver and 14 to to Miami. Both of those opponents shot better than 52% from the field. The Bulls shot 39.3% in their last game as they continue to rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. It should be pointed out that Chicago was a slight dog the last time they came calling to Cleveland. The underdog is an incredible 22-5 ATS the past 27 meetings between these teams. The Cavs have also cashed six of their last eight games vs. teams w/ a winning percentage of .400 or below. These teams have similar YTD records and point differentials w/ Chicago only slightly better. There's not many games you'd "expect" Cleveland to win anymore, but this is one for me. They're off a tough West Coast swing, have revenge and I just can't see them losing for a third straight time to the Bulls this season, including a second straight at home. These teams rate fairly evenly in my book, so I absolutely think the home team deserves more respect. 10* Cleveland |
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01-20-19 | Clippers +9 v. Spurs | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (7:05 ET): The Clippers are reeling right now (lost 5 in a row), which I can't say is any kind of terrible surprise seeing as their hot start to the season was viewed as a surprise by many (including me). They've fallen to a precarious 8th place in a Western Conference where there's little margin for error and the team right behind them, the cross-town Lakers, will be getting LeBron back soon. Losing both Lou Williams and Danilo Gallinari hurts - figuratively AND literally - but the result of those injuries and the recent slide is that the Clips are getting A LOT of points tonight in San Antonio, far more than they should. Take the points in this one. The Spurs' season is trending in the opposite direction of the Clippers. Trading away Kawhi Leonard was supposed to signal a downturn in the Alamo, but as long as Greg Popovich is still coaching in San Antonio, this team is probably going to be good. They started 2018-19 slow and were particularly pourous on the defensive end. But they've certainly turned things around over the last month or so by going 16-6 SU their last 22 games. But even w/ such a run, they're still only two games up on the Clippers. Coming off B2B road wins (over Dallas & Minnesota), I think they're a little bit overvalued in this spot. Playing Golden State is always tough, but the Clippers did themselves no favors Friday by shooting only 36.5% from the field. I had the Under in that contest (won easily), so I was happy. But the Clippers are far better than how they've looked in this 0-5 SU/ATS stretch while I feel the Spurs are due to start "giving some back" after a 17-5 ATS run. This is just too many points for a Clippers team that should come out desperate here. San Antonio has actually been outscored over its last five games, despite going 3-2 SU. Two of the three wins have been by four points or less while the other was a double overtime game. 10* LA Clippers |
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01-20-19 | Illinois +8 v. Iowa | Top | 71-95 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* Illinois (1:00 ET): I've had some pretty good success betting Big 10 games this year. Just yesterday, I was on Wisconsin, who handed Michigan its first loss of the year. I also won w/ Penn State plus the points over Minnesota. Another Big 10 matchup I cashed earlier in the week was Illinois over Minnesota. The Illini, a slight dog on their home floor, won "going away" by 27 points. It was a much needed result in what has been quite the unlucky season in Champaign-Urbana. Sunday finds the Illini getting more points against an Iowa team that I feel is "ripe for the pickin'." Take the points here. The Big 10 is very interesting this year. You could have as many as 10 teams making the NCAA Tournament. Michigan and Michigan State are the clear heavyweights. I happen to think that three of the more underrated teams in the country - Nebraska, Purdue and Wisconsin - hail from this league. I also think there's some overrated teams like Minnesota and Iowa. Illinois now has a chance to beat both overrated squads. They scored 51 pts in the 1st half against Minnesota on Wednesday and led for all but 28 seconds of that game. They ended up shooting 56.1% from the field. Illinois had ample time to prepare for Minnesota (were off last weekend), but remember what I said in my analysis. They have played better than their record, even taking Michigan to the limit. They have three losses by exactly two points. As for Iowa, they've had quite the opposite kind of luck. They've pulled off three upsets in the last four games. They may or may not be getting leading scorer Tyler Cook back here. Cook sat out the win vs. Penn State earlier in the week as he's been hobbled by an ankle injury. But the Hawkeyes are 0 for their last 7 ATS in home games when the total is 155 to 159.5. That includes an 0-4 record this year. 10* Illinois |
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01-19-19 | Penn State +4 v. Minnesota | Top | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
8* Penn State (8:30 ET): I smell upset here. Isn't a little curious that a Penn State team that is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in Big 10 play is only a short road dog here to a Minnesota team that is 13-4 SU overall on the season? Of course, anyone who joined me for my ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL against the Golden Gophers on Wednesday knows that this team is pretty much a fraud. The Gophers lost by 27 at Illinois, a team that also was without a Big 10 win at the time. Take the points here! Penn State hasn't necessarily been bad this year, they've just been unlucky. Case in point, an 89-82 loss to Iowa on Wednesday where they were actually favored by 3.5 points. Iowa is a ranked team and the Nittany Lions held a five-point lead at the break. But it was not be as they ended the game w/ some extremely cold shooting. Up eight w/ just over 11 minutes to go in the game, they would go onto miss 16 of their next 21 shots and 10 in a row from three-point range. Also disappointing was the fact they didn't defend as well as they normally do. None of their previous five opponents had scored more than 71 points before Iowa (a good offensive team) went for 89. Despite this, the Nittany Lions still rank top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency. In my writeup for that Minnesota-Illinois game, I said the line was just as curious as it looks to be here and this is due to the oddsmakers being all too aware how fraudulent the Gophers truly are. I talked about this quite a bit in the analysis for the Illinois game, but would like to add that this is a poor shooting team, from both two and three-point range as they sit outside the top 200 in percentage. They've been helped by a strong offensive rebounding rate, but that will probably go down here in Big 10 play. The Gophers really do not have a quality win. 8* Penn State |
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01-19-19 | Kings v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-101 | Push | 0 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons won last night here at home, beating Miami by a score of 98-93. They were 2.5-pt favorites and it was their 4th straight cover, a stretch which has also seen them go 3-1 SU as they try and remain relevant in the Eastern Conference playoff discussion. They're currently a game back of Charlotte (who hosts Phoenix today) for the 8th and final spot. Last night's win did not come w/o some attrition as Andre Drummond had to make an early exit after getting hit in the face. But despite them blowing all of a 16-pt lead, I was impressed w/ how they came back and won. Despite being in the second game of a back to back, I like them tonight. Sacramento's last game only further confirmed my general skepticism towards them. They were blown out in Charlotte, 114-95, which for me was a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release (on the Hornets). The Kings, like the Pistons, are hovering right under the "cut line" for the playoffs. But they have a negative point differential, indicating their winning SU record is at least a little fraudulent. Their defense is bottom five in the league (in terms of points per game allowed) and while they've been able to go 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season, I wouldn't be surprised if this line "flips" before tipoff. Playing without rest and possibly some key players hardly sounds ideal, but I expect the Pistons to "step up" here. Drummond is officially listed as questionable, though HC Dwane Casey has said he's "hopeful" he can play. Backup PG Ish Smith also left last night's game early and is listed as "day to day." This one simply boils down to the fact that I do not believe in Sacramento moving forward. Note this is a revenge game for the Pistons, who lost out in California nine days ago. But they played that game w/o Blake Griffin. We know Griffin will play here and he's been on fire of late, averaging 29.3 points on 51.4% shooting his L10 games. Look for the home team to roll. 10* Detroit |
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01-19-19 | Western Michigan +8.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 48-79 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Start time for this game has been moved up due to weather. Play is still valid! 10* Western Michigan (2:30 ET): Bowling Green is the only MAC team besides Buffalo w/o a conference loss, but to consider those two squads as anything close to equals would be downright laughable. Buffalo is a legit top 20 team in the country right now. I wouldn't even consider BG to be among the top 200. While the Falcons' Saturday opponent, Western Michigan, isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, I do like the Broncos plus the points here. Bowling Green is not accustomed to being this large of a favorite and will struggle here to win by any kind of margin. Bowling Green does enter this game on a seven-game ATS win streak. But the Falcons have been a slight underdog in three of their four MAC games, including here at home Tuesday where they escaped w/ a 79-78 victory over Ball State. They won that game despite shooting just 33.9% from the field. But they made 8 of the 20 three-pointers they took and were 29 of 33 from the FT line. Give credit to the Falcons for being 9-0 SU at home. They're averaging a lot of points here while visitors are shooting just 38.4% from the field. But I just don't see this good fortune continuing. Western Michigan has dropped its last four games as well as seven of its last eight. As of now, they and Miami are the only teams in the MAC w/o a conference win. But the Broncos are coming off a couple of "game efforts" at home over the last week against Toledo and Buffalo. They actually gave Buffalo its toughest test in MAC play thus far - by far - as they led by 11 pts in the first half. Obviously, they weren't able to hold on, but they easily covered as 14-point home dogs. The L3 games have seen WMU score 73, 77 and 79 points. If they can get to that threshold today, then they'll have no problem covering this generous pointspread. 10* Western Michigan |
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01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke -2.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Duke (6:00 ET): This is a rare battle of teams each ranked #1 in different polls. Duke is the AP's top choice while Virginia is #1 according to the Coaches. This is just the 4th time this has happened in CBB history where teams ranked #1 in the two polls are meeting. Don't let the fact that Duke is w/o PG Tre Jones lure you into thinking the luster of this matchup is gone. I agree with the AP that the Blue Devils are the top team in the country, despite what happened to them earlier this week. Virginia is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the country, but I believe they will go DOWN on Saturday. Lay the points. It's certainly a bit odd to consider Duke an "anti-public" bet. But coming off a loss and w/o Jones, they are here. Facing an unbeaten team is also a contributing factor. But the Blue Devils have the depth to overcome the loss of Jones and will obviously be highly motivated coming off the 95-91 loss to Syracuse on Monday. That game saw them lose Jones to a separated shoulder just six minutes in and they were already w/o Cam Reddish. But Reddish is set to return here. Zion Williamson just set a Duke freshman record w/ 35 pts in that Syracuse game. The Blue Devils have outscored teams by more than 30 PPG here at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Virginia, as per usual, is the near the top of the country in defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 51.7 PPG and enter this game at 13-3 ATS. But two things to keep in mind here. One, it's hard to shake the memory of what happened to the Cavaliers in LY's NCAA Tournament. How will they handle this step up game? Two, I'm sure Duke remembers losing to Virginia LY here at home. This year's team is better w/ Williamson and R.J. Barrett and I don't see them going down in Durham two years in a row to the Hoos. This line should be higher. The fact that it's not is an overreaction to what happened Monday (Jones injury, Duke losing). 8* Duke |
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01-19-19 | Thunder +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 117-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (3:30 ET): Both of these teams are coming off results that are not indicative of where they're truly "at" and the better team is getting points. Oklahoma City suffered an upset at the hands of the LeBron-less Lakers Thursday night, which was actually the second straight head-scratching result for them. Earlier in the week, they lost at Atlanta. So that's two games in a row where the Thunder have lost outright as a double digit favorite. You just don't see that very often and I think they'll bounce back in this early start time Saturday afternoon. Take the points. Philadelphia just destroyed Indiana Thursday night, 120-96. That win was not free from criticism, however, as the team's decision to play an injured Joel Embiid received plenty of criticism from all the usual talking heads. Despite clearly being bothered by a bad back, Embiid had 22 points and 13 rebounds vs. the Pacers, which is right in line w/ his season averages. But I wonder if playing Thursday has an adverse effect on him here. Despite a 19-4 SU home record, I'm a little skeptical of the Sixers, who are just 4-9 ATS off a double digit win and lagging behind some of the other top teams in the East in key metrics such as point differential and net efficiency. For much of this year, Oklahoma City has led the league in defensive efficiency. Not in the last two games, however. The Hawks and Lakers torched them for a combined 280 pts, which is a stunning number. That Lakers game did go to overtime and they also recently lost to the Spurs 154-147 in double overtime. This team is better than its record, IMO, and has gone 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season. They should start to turn things around here as I see defensive improvement on its way against a Philly side who is "due" to dropoff at the offensive end anyway. 8* Oklahoma City |
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01-19-19 | Michigan v. Wisconsin +4 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): There are only two unbeaten teams left in the country (Virginia, Michigan) and both face stern road tests on Saturday. Michigan, ranked #2 (AP) and #4 (Coaches) in the polls must visit Madison for this early tip and as of press time, I believe this line is trending in the WRONG directions. Don't let Wisconsin's six losses fool you; the Badgers will be the Wolverines most worthy adversary yet. Michigan has played only a handful of "true" road games so far (three to be exact) and this one happens to come at a team that is not only top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), but also top 20 in my own personal power ratings. Michigan is 17-0 overall and has started Big 10 play 4-0 ATS. But they've gotten dealt a "pretty easy hand" so far in conference play, drawing three of the league's four teams that likely won't be making the NCAA Tournament. You have to tip your cap to the job done by HC John Beilein here in Ann Arbor as once again he has his team overachieving. Last year's national runner-up came into the year barely even considered a top 20 team in the country. This 17-0 record is Michigan's best start EVER, but I believe a few losses are coming. They got career-highs from TWO players in last Saturday's 80-60 win over Northwestern. That won't be happening again on the road. Wisconsin enters this game off B2B losses, both by just four points. They've also dropped four of five, all by seven points or less. So it's not just facing a top 5 and unbeaten opponent in their gym that should have the Badgers motivated here. They desperately need a win as well. As I mentioned earlier, despite these recent results, I still have Wisconsin as a top 20 team nationally. It is not often you find them as an underdog at the Kohl Center. (Hasn't happened until now this season). Even last year when they had a down year, the Badgers were only a home dog three times. I'm taking the points here and obviously don't be surprised if it's an outright upset. 8* Wisconsin |
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01-18-19 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Memphis (7:05 ET): It's a been a bit of a dicey period for the Celtics the last couple weeks with players calling each other out. There's been plenty of hand-wringing over "why this team isn't better," but the bottom line is that while the Celtics' record may not be what "it should be," they've still outscored the opposition this year by a healthy 6.1 PPG and that's the third best margin in the league right now (trailing only Milwaukee and Golden State). They are coming off a most impressive win Wednesday night over Toronto (117-108 as 3-pt home chalk), led by Kyrie Irving's 27 points and career-high 18 assists. Whatever "ails" Boston right now is "small potatoes" to what is going on w/ Memphis. The Grizzlies have won just one time in the New Year (at San Antonio though) and are just 3-14 SU dating back to December 14th. They are 2-15 ATS during that same stretch. Fortunately for tonight, they are getting double digits. As long as the Grizzlies can maintain their defensive prowess (1st in the league in PPG allowed!), then I say they're a great value at this current price. Remember that Boston had lost three straight games, all as favorites, before beating Toronto two nights ago. These teams did play right before the New Year, in Memphis, with the Celtics winning 112-103 as 3.5-point chalk. Boston made 16 three-pointers in that game to Memphis' seven and that was the difference. However, the Grizzlies are 17-4 ATS all-time here in Beantown. This figures to be a pretty low-scoring game, which makes the underdog all the more attractive. The Celtics were very much on the verge of losing a 4th straight game when they were down four to Toronto w/ less than five minutes to go. My read is they'll likely win here, but not cover. Take the points. 8* Memphis |
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01-18-19 | Ohio +9 v. Toledo | Top | 52-75 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
10* Ohio (7:00 ET): Led by a very good Buffalo team, the MAC is a surprisingly decent league this year. Granted, everyone else is playing for 2nd place (behind UB), but there's some quality squads here. One team that I think is a bit underrated at the moment is the contingent from Athens, Ohio. OU is just 1-3 SU in conference play thus far and has suffered a couple of losses when they were favored (Northern Illinois, Kent State) at home. But they also went on the road last week and posted a very nice 70-52 win at Ball State (as 10-pt underdogs). Not sure the Bobcats will win outright again tonight, but I love them plus the points in this spot. The one thing that caught my eye w/ this Ohio team is that they have a very high defensive efficiency rating. They're 45th in the country (per KenPom) in that regard, which is second in the conference, right behind Buffalo. Offensively, things can get a bit dicey, but that is what the pointspread is there for. With a defense that can keep the opposition in check, the Bobcats become a very attractive play as underdogs. It was an absolutely dreadful shooting night that cost them earlier this week vs. Kent State. OU finished that game at just 31.7% from the field, including 4 of 20 from three-point range. Even on the road, you have to figure those numbers will go up tonight. Toledo is a good team, but remember they started MAC play at 0-2 before rolling in their last two games. Back to back wins as favorites have the Rockets a little overvalued coming into this one, similar to when they hosted Ball State in the conference opener and lost 79-64. That was followed w/ a 30-point loss to Buffalo (gave up 110 points!), but getting Western Michigan and Miami OH B2B has got UT back on track. Still, those are two of the weaker teams in the MAC. The Rockets might be the better offensive team in this matchup, but they've still posted two double digit losses in games against teams I consider in the upper half of the MAC (Buffalo obviously included). This is a big revenge game for Ohio as well considering they were swept by the Rockets LY and are just 3-11 ATS the L14 meetings. Take the points. 10* Ohio |
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01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (6:30 ET): The Big 10 is beyond loaded this year w/ possibly 10 teams NCAA Tournament bound (Illinois, Penn St, Rutgers, N'western are the exceptions). So, more often than not, a conference game is going to carry a lot of meaning. Take this one for example, which is crucial to Ohio State. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row, the last two coming on the road. That has them 10th in the standings. But they're back in Columbus Friday where they'll host a Maryland team whose 6-1 conference record trails only Michigan and Michigan State. I think it's time for the Terps to drop a game as I do NOT view them as better than "the rest of the pack" in the Big 10. Ohio State's losing streak began w/ a loss here in Columbus to Michigan State. At the time, the Buckeyes were ranked #14 in the country and they looked to be sitting pretty w/ a seven-point halftime lead. But they let Sparty score 50 pts in the final 20 minutes of that game and still have yet to recover. A shocking upset loss at the hands of Rutgers soon followed, then came a loss at Iowa last weekend where they again fell apart in the 2nd half. The good news for this game is the schedule lines up in OSU's favor. They have not played since Saturday while Maryland had a tough game vs. Wisconsin on Monday. Tonight is the Terps' third game in the last eight days. Maryland won that game over Wisconsin, 64-60 in College Park. It was their sixth straight win, however, three of those have been by three points or less. Again, I view this team as being more in line w/ the "rest of the pack" and not Michigan & Michigan State. So it makes sense that they would drop a game sooner rather than later. The Terps may be 4-0 ATS on the road, but Ohio State is 8-2 SU at home and the better defensive team, in my opinion. Last year, the Buckeyes destroyed the Terps 91-68 here in Columbus. It might not be that lopsided this time around, but OSU will win again. Lay the short number. 8* Ohio State |
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01-17-19 | Hawaii -1 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 84-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (10:00 ET): The "curious" case of Cal State Northridge continued last Saturday as the Matadors got me again w/ a 78-74 road win over Cal Poly. It was the second time in a week that this team, who I have ranked outside my top 300, proved me wrong. Last Wednesday, they won 84-83 at Cal Riverside. Have I simply underestimated this team? I don't think so. Two wins by a combined five points, even on the road, is not enough to lead to any kind of critical reassessment. They're back at home tonight, but I like Hawaii to hand them a dose of their own medicine. Hawaii is 10-5 SU and been off for more than a week as they prepare to hit the mainland for the first time in 2019. In fact, this will be the Warriors first road game since playing at UCLA on November 28th and that is their ONLY "true" road game so far this season! They just completed a 6-1 SU homestand on the island w/ a 79-68 win over Cal State Fullerton as three-point favorites. That result ran their mark to a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored this year, so monitor that line. But no matter where the line ends up, make no mistake that Hawaii is still a strong play tonight against an opponent that is just bad on the defensive end. These teams split their pair of games last season and my goodness was it a tail of two shooting performances from Cal State Northridge. At home, they lost 65-46 as they shot a woeful 27.5% from the field. But out in Honolulu, they turned the tables w/ a 65.1% shooting night. But I say that no matter how well (or poorly) they shoot tonight, their poor defense will have them "behind the 8-ball." The Matadors still are giving up 83.0 points per game. Hawaii, meanwhile, does an excellent job at guarding the three-point line. Opponents are barely even shooting 30% from there this season. 8* Hawaii |
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01-17-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee +3.5 | Top | 86-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Middle Tennessee (7:30 ET): The Blue Raiders are having a somewhat disastrous season (3-14 SU record, 2-13 ATS), but they recently cashed for me in a decent showing at Southern Miss last week. The follow up to that was not good (I laid off) as they went to Louisiana Tech and fell 73-56. But now they're back at home for the first time in two weeks and desperate to end this ugly 13-game losing streak. In many ways, this play reminds me of last night's ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL on Illinois, who was another short home dog that many were quick to write off. I'll take the points here. UTSA is 10-7 SU so far. They have won and covered all four times that they have been favored. They are also 4-0 SU/ATS in conference play, one of only two teams in Conference USA w/o a league loss. (MTSU is only C-USA team w/o a win). But I'm not sure there's anyone that considers the Roadrunners as the top team in C-USA; in fact I wouldn't even have them top five. Two of their four conference wins came at the expense of UTEP in a "unique" scheduling spot where those teams played B2B games against one another. The Roadrunners did just earn an impressive win over North Texas, but that was by only two points and at home. They won on a last-second shot. Going back to the end of December, UTSA has won seven straight games. It is their longest win streak in a decade and their first 4-0 start in conference play in 30 years. Meanwhile, it's been a long time since MTSU had this kind of year as the toll from former HC Kermit Davis bolting for Ole Miss is clearly being felt. That all being said, I still look at this game as a matchup where one team is due to regress and the other set to improve. To make a stock analogy, it's time to "sell high" on UTSA while we should "buy low" on Middle Tennessee. Despite the disparate records, I would still make the Blue Raiders a slight favorite on their home floor! 10* Middle Tennessee |
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01-17-19 | 76ers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 120-96 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): We're barely past the midway point of the NBA season, but I think it should be apparent to all that in the Eastern Conference, five teams have clearly separated themselves from the pack. Two of them meet tonight, on TNT, in Indiana w/ the Pacers hosting the Sixers. To me, of the five teams that have separated themselves, Philly is definitely the weakest out of the group. Whether you're looking at point differential or net efficiency, they come up last. So Indiana laying essentially a "token amount" (of points) for being at home seems like a good value play to me. With LeBron James taking his talents out West, we knew the Eastern Conference would be relatively "wide open" this year. Still, I have to admit that I didn't think the Pacers would be this strong of a team. They are now tied for 1st in the league in defensive efficiency (w/ Milwaukee and OKC). But lately it has been the offense that has been rolling. They are off a 131-97 win over Phoenix (here at home) where they never trailed and led by as many as 37. Yes, that was "only Phoenix," but the Pacers were impressive nonetheless. It was their second highest scoring game of the year. Since X-Mas, they have averaged almost 120 PPG. Given the offensive performance in their last game (and who it came against), I'd be more leery to lay points w/ Indiana in this spot if not for the fact Philly also happens to be off its highest scoring effort of the year. They put up 149 points Tuesday in a blowout of the T'wolves. But that was at home. The road has been far less kind to the Sixers this year as they are just 10-12 SU (19-4 SU at home). Meanwhile, Indiana is 15-5 SU at home and outscoring teams by almost 10 PPG. I think home court really matters this matchup and the Pacers are already the stronger team on paper. Philly is just 1-4 ATS this season after posting a 130+ pt effort. Lay the points. 8* Indiana |
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01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Two teams hovering around the .500 mark meet Thursday night in the Queen City. I love the matchup from the Hornets' perspective. This is a team that has generally played better than its record, not just this season, but for the last several seasons. What has burned them is an atrocious 4-22 SU record in games decided by 3 pts or less the L3 seasons (3-8 TY). They're also 0-4 in overtime this season. Still though, they have managed to outscore their opposition and they enter this game off a very nice win in San Antonio (108-93 as 7-point dogs) Monday night. I've gone on the record as a skeptic of the Kings, who are surprisingly still above .500. It's been a long time since we could say that about them in January (Chris Webber days?), but the bottom line is they have the Western Conference's third worst point differential due to still being one of the worst defensive teams in the league (26th in PPG allowed). Somewhat shockingly, Sacramento has been the betting favorite in each of its L5 games! They went 4-1 SU & ATS in that stretch to improve to 10-1 SU/9-2 ATS as chalk on the season. They've really beaten up on the lesser foes on their schedule, going 15-4 SU vs. sub-.500 foes. Charlotte might technically be a sub-.500 team, but I have them rated as a better team than Sacramento and I think this is going to be a big game for Kemba Walker and the Hornets. It's their first game back home after a six-game Western Conference swing (went 2-4 SU) while the Kings are just starting their own six-game swing out East. The Kings actually got more points from their bench than the starters in Monday's 114-107 win against Portland. They won't be able to rely on such production on the road (where role players typically don't play as well) and that defense remains a valid concern. Charlotte is 14-8 SU at home this year, including 12-6 when favored. The pointspread is of little concern in this matchup, so I'm laying the points in what should be a Hornets victory. 10* Charlotte |
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01-16-19 | Minnesota v. Illinois +2 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
8* Illinois (9:00 ET): Many are going to look at this game and see a 13-3 team barely favored over 4-12 team. In terms of the ratio of tickets written on the two sides here, the result will be predictable. Minnesota figures to be (and is) a popular public choice, but I'm here to tell you not to fall for the trap. Illinois has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country thus far and is actually far better than its record suggests. The Illini have lost three games this year by exactly two points. Something else you should consider is Minnesota's 0-6 ATS record when facing an opponent that has a losing record. Illinois comes into this game on a five-game losing streak, which includes two of their three two-point losses. Their most recent defeat came at the hands of unbeaten Michigan, 79-69, right here in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini actually outshot the Wolverines, even holding them to just 5 of 19 from the three-point range. But that discrepancy was made up for at the FT line where Michigan went 18 of 22 while Illinois was just 4 of 7 (at home!). Something key (for me) in handicapping tonight's game is that Illinois has had a little extra time to prepare. That Michigan game was last Thursday. They were off over the weekend. Minnesota won on Saturday, 88-70 over Rutgers. But that was a good spot for the Golden Gophers. Not only were they getting the Scarlet Knights in a clear letdown spot (Rutgers had just upset Ohio State for their biggest win in YEARS), but Rutgers was also missing its best player (Eugene Omoruyi) and it showed. Omoruyi got hurt in the upset of Ohio State, so it was the Scarlet Knights' first time playing w/o him (he's also their leading rebounder). Minnesota did go to Wisconsin and win earlier this month, but I do not consider them even one of the NINE best teams in the Big 10 right now. They are ripe for the "pickin" tonight. 8* Illinois |
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01-16-19 | Butler -2 v. DePaul | Top | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Butler (8:30 ET): Butler is coming off B2B 1-pt losses, both on the road. The first was to Seton Hall, a game where the Bulldogs scored 50 pts in the 2nd half, yet still came up just short. The second was to Xavier as this time they succumbed to a second half rally (blew 10-pt lead). That Xavier loss was particularly frustrating in the sense that the Bulldogs not only shot the ball well, but also much better than their opponents. But Xavier got to the free throw line way more (double the attempts) and was +11 in scoring there, and that proved to be the difference in the ballgame. While still on the road, tonight sets up as the easiest game of the the trip for Butler. That's confirmed by the fact they are slightly favored. A win here would give the Bulldogs some positive "momentum" (still hate that word) going into home games vs. St. John's and Big East leader Villanova over the next week. Depaul is a team they've beaten four times over the past two seasons, three of those victories coming by double digits. Maybe the gap isn't quite as large in 2019, but Butler still is the better team. Butler has lost four of five overall, but is still a top 40 team in the country in my eyes. Three days before Butler lost to Seton Hall by a point, Depaul picked up a one-point victory over the Pirates. That win saw some remarkable shooting from the Blue Demons and snapped a three-game losing streak. Then came a surprise win at St. John's over the weekend. However, it should be noted the Blue Demons benefited from playing St. John's w/o its leading scorer and assist man Shamorie Ponds. That was another game where FT differential mattered as Depaul went 17 of 28 from the charity stripe while St. John's (at home!) was just 4 of 6. Don't let recent results fool you; Butler is the better team here and justifiably favored. 10* Butler |
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01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Golden State has NOT been the same team this year as in year's past. Some of that has been injuries. They're still one of the top teams in the league mind you, perhaps still the team to beat, but that aura of invincibility seems to have evaporated. I know they didn't go into the playoffs as the #1 seed LY, but virtually all numbers are down across the board this season. Perhaps most concerning of all is that they have slipped to the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency after three top five finishes in the previous four seasons. Tonight is a huge showdown in Denver and I do not think the Dubs should be favored in this spot, which is something I rarely say. Last year, it was the Rockets. This year, Denver has emerged as the top challenger to Golden State's throne in the Western Conference. The Nuggets currently have a one-half game lead for the top spot in the standings and are probably the deepest team in the league right now. They too have battled injuries and the fact they're still ahead of the Warriors is impressive. So is their record at home. They've gone 18-3 SU at the Pepsi Center this year and won their last 12 games here. They've outscored opponents by 11.3 points per game and are 14-7 ATS despite the average line being about six points for their home games. Golden State comes into this Tuesday night showdown having won four straight, all against lesser foes. In fact, two of the games saw them favored by 17 or more points. This will be one of their biggest tests all season. Denver comes in not only having won 12 straight home games, but 8 of 10 overall. They already beat the Warriors once on this floor, 100-98, back in October. Golden State is just 4-7 ATS playing w/ revenge this season The Nuggets, like the Warriors, are healthier than they've been in a while. Nikola Jokic turned in a 40-10 game against Portland on Sunday and the team is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when coming off a division game. 10* Denver |
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01-15-19 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -13 | Top | 74-82 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Cincy has has its fair share of problems w/ the pointspread here in 2019. Their three-game ATS slide began w/ a real head-scratching defeat at East Carolina (where they were 17.5-point favorites!) on 1.5. Over the course of the last week they did win a pair of games, both in overtime, but didn't cover either. They beat Tulsa by five and UConn by only two. As a result, the line for tonight's home date w/ USF opened a lot lower than it should have. This is an opponent that the Bearcats have handled through the years, winning 13 straight, although they are just 3-10 ATS in those 13 SU wins. Tonight, I look for them to "get back on track" w/ a blowout victory. Lay the number here. South Florida comes into this game w/ a 12-4 SU and ATS record, so most are going to be tempted by them getting double digits in this spot. Don't be. Looking over USF's resume brings me back to a few months ago when I was warning clients about how overrated the school's football program was in spite of an undefeated SU record. For the record, the Bulls' hoops team is just outside my top 150 teams in the country at this point. They have really not played anyone of note this entire season. It's true that all four of their losses have been by three points or less. But two of those have come in the L3 games (at Tulsa, at Temple). Their last game (at Temple) also went to OT and they were lucky to get past regulation as they trailed by 14 at the half. This is a team that won only 10 games all of last season. Cincinnati will easily be the best team USF has faced all season. The Bearcats bring it on the defensive end, giving up just 58.5 PPG at home. That's a big reason why they're 10-1 SU here. They are top 25 in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and to me, on the fringes of being a top 25 team in America. The loss to East Carolina was definitely head-scratching (they let the Pirates shoot 51.1%). It should be noted that the two OT wins over the last week both saw Cincy leading comfortably in the second half, only to squander said leads. They led Tulsa by six w/ less than two minutes to go in regulation and UConn by as many as 11. Not only is this spread justified, it should be higher. 10* Cincinnati |
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01-15-19 | Ball State -1 v. Bowling Green | Top | 78-79 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Ball State (7:00 ET): While undoubtedly "under the radar," Ball State probably just had as bad a 7-day stretch as any team in the country last week. They lost outright twice - both times as double digit favorites - and those games were in Muncie! That has the Cardinals reeling a bit in the MAC West, a division that looked like it could be theirs for the taking following a 79-64 win at Toledo earlier this month. But the good news is that there's plenty of time to recover and I think the team is being severely mispriced tonight at Bowling Green. This is a game the Cardinals should win easily. Bowling Green does come in hot as they're on a seven-game win streak. They've covered all six games that were lined, including a couple of minor upsets at Kent State and Central Michigan. The Falcons are now tied w/ Buffalo (the clear conference heavyweight) atop the MAC East. But don't expect that to last for too long. I think too many will be infatuated w/ BGSU's 8-0 SU home record here and the fact they are 6-0 ATS when there's been a line in those games. I'm not. The last time the Falcons started MAC play 3-0 was 2004-05 and while all three wins have come by double digits, the last one (at Central Mich) actually required overtime. I have no unearthly idea what happened w/ Ball State Saturday at home vs. Ohio. The Cardinals fell behind quickly and it was basically over from the start. They trailed 39-18 at halftime and ended up shooting a pitiful 1 of 12 from three-point range (overall FG% was just 35.4). Even on the road, those numbers HAVE to come up tonight. The loss to Eastern Michigan was a double OT affair that saw the Cards again fall victim to ridiculous three-point shooting, only this time it was by the opponent, who was 61.5% from behind the arc. Recent results have incorrectly influenced this line and I'm taking full advantage. 8* Ball State |
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01-14-19 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 94-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): The Grizzlies have had a heck of a time covering games lately as their ATS record since December 14th is a money-burning 2-13. But that didn't stop me from taking them last Wednesday against the Spurs, whom they upset 96-86 in an outright win as 8.5-point road underdogs. They had two days off following that result, so it had to be considered a huge disappointment to then lose a closely contested game down in Miami, 112-108, Saturday (blew a DD 1st half lead). I realize there's some "internal strife" going on w/ the team, but they're in an excellent spot plus the points tonight in Houston. I'll take the Grizz as underdogs yet again. Houston is the second night of a back to back and suffered a surprising loss last night in Orlando. James Harden had an absolutely dreadful night shooting, particularly from three-point range where he went 1 for 17! Though Harden still ended up w/ 38 pts, tying Kobe Bryant's streak of 16 straight 30+ point games, the 16 misses from behind the arc tied a more dubious NBA record. Harden will probably shoot a better percentage from 3-pt range tonight, but the streak of 30+ pt games is still going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Remember that the Rockets are still w/o Chris Paul by the way (helps explain Harden's recent scoring surge). Memphis' strength lies on the defensive end where they give up only 102.7 PPG. That's the best number in the league, mind you. So provided they can find a way to score, they should have no problem covering this generous number against an unrested foe. Chandler Parsons has taken a leave of absence from the team and Kyle Anderson is hurt, but that's nothing compared to how short-handed the Rockets are coming into this one. Not only is Paul out, but so is Eric Gordon and Clint Capella is listed as questionable due to a thumb injury suffered last night. The Rockets are 3-10 ATS this season after allowing 115+ points in their previous game (gave up 116 last night). This is a double revenge spot for the Grizzlies as well. 10* Memphis |
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01-14-19 | Nebraska +3 v. Indiana | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
8* Play on Nebraska (6:30 ET): As of this writing, Indiana is still ranked (#22), but that's likely to change before tipoff as they lost to Maryland on Friday. Interestingly enough, despite that ranking, this is the second straight game where the Hoosiers are NOT the higher rated team in my eyes. You needed to look no further than the pointspread for confirmation of that in the Maryland game. IU was a 5.5-pt dog in College Park and backers were lucky to get a miracle "backdoor" cover on a last-second three that made the game a 78-75 final. Here, Indiana's "inferiority" isn't quite as obvious, but I personally have Nebraska rated noticeably higher in my own personal power ratings. Take the points. I've written this before, but it bears repeating here. I'm pretty high on this Cornhuskers squad and believe them to be one of the more underrated teams in the country right now. They're top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom) and coming off a 70-64 win over Penn State on Thursday. They come into this game having had one more day than Indiana to prepare. Nebraska is outscoring teams by almost 18 PPG this year. While they're 0-3 in Big 10 road games thus far (including a 2-pt loss at Maryland), the Huskers do own a win at Clemson earlier in the year. This game being in Bloomington figures to be a big talking points coming into this game. Yes, Indiana is 10-0 SU at home this year. But isn't it curious then that they're not favored by more? The Hoosiers are in the same predicament Nebraska found itself in Thursday, that being off B2B road losses. They blew a 14-pt 1st half lead vs. Maryland after losing to Michigan. Nebraska is one of the few teams in the Big 10 (or country, for that matter) that can shoot the ball as well as IU. The Hoosiers' depth is currently being tested as several reserves are injured. In the last two games, they've gotten a grand total of TWO points from their bench! Meanwhile, I actually think it was a good sign for Nebraska that they were able to win Thursday despite leading scorer James Palmer Jr scoring only 11 pts on 3 of 12 shooting. He has eight 20+ pt games this year and averages 19.5 PPG. He'll bounce back tonight and lead his team to the cover (and likely SU win). 8* Nebraska |
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01-13-19 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): You might be wondering why a 6-10 team that's struggled at the betting window (N Iowa) would be laying points to a 12-4 team (Drake) that's been highly profitable. Well, unless you've been following the Missouri Valley closely, then you are likely unaware that Drake lost senior guard Nick Norton (14.0 PPG) for the season to an ACL injury. In addition to being second on the team in scoring, Norton was the assist leader. It's a loss that will be very difficult to overcome and likely derails the Bulldogs season. Today will be the first road game for Drake since the Norton injury, which occurred at Evansville back on the 2nd of this month. The Bulldogs lost that Evansville game in double overtime (Norton injury occurred in 1st half) and then predictably got humbled by Loyola-Chicago at home last weekend (lost by 11). The team did bounce back Tuesday, beating Southern Illinois at home, 82-70 as a two-point dog. That was a situation where the oddsmakers had clearly overadjusted for the injury. But here's a spot where the opposite holds true. I just don't see Drake winning, given that they already allow 79.6 PPG away from home. Northern Iowa was a nice winner for me that same night Norton got hurt. The Panthers went to Bradley and won outright, 65-47 as 7.5-point dogs. They've since resumed their losing ways, dropping a couple close ones to Southern Illinois and Illinois State. But this is a good bounce back spot in Cedar Falls as UNI has to start improving upon a 3-11 ATS mark for this year (they're 24-46 ATS L3 seasons). The Panthers play good defense at home, giving up just 64 PPG. Drake has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 11 visits to Cedar Falls. I do not expect their hot three-point shooting from the start of the season to continue (Norton was 40.0%) while at the same time, their turnover rate (already an alarming 19.2%) should continue to rise. 10* Northern Iowa |
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01-12-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Kings | Top | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
8* play on Charlotte (10:05 ET): I fully understand that no one is going to be in a rush to place a bet on the Hornets tonight after the way they were embarrassed last night in Portland. But if anyone should apprehensive and/or embarrassed, it would be me as I'm sad to report I actually took Charlotte last night. They were quickly run out of the gym by the Blazers and entered the 4th quarter down 33 points (outscored by double digits in each of those first three quarters). It was a dreadful effort at both ends, one I surmise the team is going to be eager to atone for tonight. Sacramento is playing .500 ball through the first 42 games, which is a far cry from what we've seen from them the last decade. But I remain highly skeptical that they're going to remain "afloat" in what is perhaps the most loaded Western Conference in recent memory. They've been outscored on the season, mainly because no team out West gives up more points per game (116.0). That's eventually going to catch up w/ them, especially as they continue to be favored. Shockingly, tonight will be the 4th straight game where the Kings are favored (when's the last time that happened?). They've fared well as chalk so far (8-1 SU/7-2 ATS), but again, I just don't see it lasting. The Kings turned in a far better than usual defensive performance Thursday vs. Detroit, thanks in large part to Blake Griffin being a late scratch for the Pistons. Coming off a double digit win, the team is just 4-18 SU the L3 seasons and 6-16 ATS. You can bet it's been rare that they've been favored in this spot. Sure enough, it was the case Tuesday in Phoenix when they lost outright. Charlotte has a better YTD point differential than Sacramento, thus I'm seeing value in the current number, which is inflated due to the Hornets having played poorly last night. 8* Charlotte |
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01-12-19 | CS-Northridge v. Cal Poly +1 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
10* Play on Cal Poly (10:00 ET): I continue to be a little astounded at how a bad team like Cal State Northridge is being priced on the road. Granted I was wrong on Wednesday when they went out and beat UC Riverside 84-83, a final that fell very close to the number. But still, the Matadors don't have a profile of a team that should be EXPECTED to win on the road as they're just dreadful defensively (83.6 PPG allowed) and aren't in my top 300 teams in the country. Cal Poly also happens to be on the "wrong side" of 300 in my own personal power ratings, but they're at home Saturday night and thus deserve to be favored, at least by the token amount. Go w/ the home side here. It's not been a good season for Cal Poly as they're only 4-10 SU and have lost five of their last six. Their last win over a D-I opponent came back on December 8th, over Bethune-Cookman, by just two points. So this sets up as a pretty ugly battle at the bottom of the Big West, but one thing that I expect is for the Mustangs to score more than usual in this game. Their last two games on the road have produced dreadful offensive showings. They shot just 37.7% from the field Wednesday against UCSB, including 7 of 25 from three-point range. They also attempted only 7 free throws in the contest and made just three. Numbers should be up across the board tonight as like I said earlier, Cal State Northridge is not a good team defensively. Cal State Northridge has been involved in a lot of close games recently w/ their last six all decided by eight points or less. Thus, because they're typically the underdog, they've managed to go 8-1 ATS their last nine contests. But I just can't see this team winning B2B games on the conference road. Terrell Gomez had a career-high 32 pts against UC Riverside on Wednesday and the Matadors probably aren't getting that kind of game from him again. Also note they trailed by seven at the half in that last game. There's been only one game all year that the Matadors didn't give up at least 77 points. That's bad. When these teams met on this floor LY, Cal Poly scored 90. 10* Play on Cal Poly |
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01-12-19 | San Diego State -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 48-62 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
8* San Diego State (4:00 ET): I won w/ SDSU on Tuesday and quite frankly, it was even easier than I expected as they dispatched of Wyoming, 84-54 as 13.5-pt chalk. Taking advantage of an opponent that was down to just seven scholarship players, the Aztecs wasted little time in taking control of their 1st conference home game. They led by 23 going into the break and in terms of shooting, it was the complete opposite of what we saw vs. Boise State. Though back on the road Saturday afternoon, I have little doubt that the Aztecs should roll against a bad Air Force squad. Lay the short number. Air Force has lost five of its last six games, including B2B double digit defeats. Now both of those losses took place on the road, one at Utah State (by 17) and the other at Colorado State (by 23). But it's not like the Flyboys are particularly dominant here in Colorado Springs where their SU record is only 4-3 for the year. The Falcons lost their 1st MWC home game - to New Mexico - by seven points. They and Wyoming are the only MWC teams at 0-3 SU in conference play right now. The Falcons trailed by as many as 25 against Colorado State and were down double digits virtually the entire game. This is not a very good team, plain and simple. San Diego State has lost its two road games, at Cal and Boise State, somewhat skewing their home vs. road splits. But the Aztecs are a team that can score as is evident by the fact they come in averaging 76.5 PPG. It's kind of been "feast or famine" of late w/ the L6 games seeing them score 84+ three times, but also 65 or less in the other three. The AFA allows 71.8 PPG for the year, but has given up 79 and 87 its L2 games. Another key is that SDSU is 3-1 ATS this year after allowing fewer than 60 pts in its last game. They've won three straight over Air Force, all of the wins coming by at least 11 points. 8* San Diego State |
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01-11-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -8 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
8* Play on Utah (10:05 ET): I'm going to go on the record here and predict that the Jazz are about to go on a serious run. The upcoming schedule sets up quite well for them with seven of the next eight games taking place at home. Part of the reason this teams is still floundering around .500 is that they've played a league-low 17 home games to this point. The current homestand is already off to a good start as they beat Orlando by 13 here on Wednesday night. That game didn't necessarily start well (Jazz trailed by 17 at halftime), but led by Donovan Mitchell's 33 points, they dominated the second half. The big story for the Lakers is that LeBron James is still going to be out another week as he continues to nurse that groin injury suffered in the X-Mas Day win over Golden State. Though off B2B wins, the Lakers have gone just 3-5 SU w/o LeBron. Even when James returns, I'm not sure this team is going to make the playoffs in what is a very loaded Western Conference. Given the B2B wins, I can see how it would be tempting to take the Lakers plus the points. But I'm here to advise you to the contrary as Utah has been a much better team offensively at home, averaging 111.0 PPG. The Lakers got a season-best and career-best performance from two players in the L2 games. Against Dallas, it was Brandon Ingram scoring a season-high 29 points. Versus Detroit, Kyle Kuzma scored a career-best 41 points (in just three quarters). I wouldn't be too confident in either player duplicating those kind of performances here as Utah has risen back up to 5th in the league in defensive efficiency. Despite being in 9th place, the Jazz are actually 5th in the West in both net efficiency rating and point differential. So that's another sign that a run is likely forthcoming. The Lakers are actually 8th in both categories. 8* Play on Utah |
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01-11-19 | Hornets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-127 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (10:05 ET): The Hornets could really use a win here as they've fallen two games below .500. That's by no means the end of the world in the weak Eastern Conference, but 8th place (their current position) is a precarious place to be in. The Hornets lost their last time out 128-109 at the Clippers as they continue to try and navigate this West Coast swing w/o Cody Zeller. Tonight is the fourth game of a six-game trip, but at least they will have had two full days off since losing to the Clippers. I think Charlotte is a getting too many points in this one. Portland was responsible for my *10* Total of the Week cashing Wednesday night as they shot 56.6% from the floor in a 124-112 home win against lowly Chicago. This game isn't going to be nearly as easy w/ the Hornets coming in desperate and obviously they're simply a better team than the Bulls. The Blazers have had some nice wins to start the year, including beating OKC and Houston here at home, but might they be looking forward to Sunday's game in Denver? That's a distinct possibility. I also wouldn't look for Portland's bench to contribute as much here as they did vs. Chicago (56 points!). In terms of efficiency, these teams are actually close to even. Charlotte actually owns a slight edge on the offensive end while Portland is a little better defensively. Still, even w/ as well as Portland is playing at the start of 2019, I'm not sure they deserve to be laying quite this many points. It should be pointed out that not only did the Blazers just beat the Bulls, they played the Knicks before that. So Charlotte will definitely be a "step up" in competition. Kemba Walker (25.5 PPG) is one of the NBA's leading scorers and I look for him to have a big game tonight and keep the Hornets in this one. 10* Charlotte |
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01-11-19 | Wright State +6 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
10* Wright State (7:00 ET): These are the two top teams in the Horizon this year, a league which has become quite watered down through the years (no more Butler or even Valpo). So far in 2019, Northern Kentucky has been the one to seemingly emerge as the true favorite to win the regular season crown. The Norse are 13-4 SU w/ a perfect 10-0 record at home. They're off to a 3-1 start in conference play w/ the lone loss coming last Thursday, by two points, on the road vs. Oakland. But considering the stakes here, I view Northern Kentucky as overvalued coming into the first game w/ Wright State this year. Take the points. Wright State played the same two teams Northern Kentucky did last week, also both on the road, just in reverse order. They also experienced opposite results, losing at Detroit, but then beating Oakland. After that 1-1 Michigan split, the Raiders are now set for their biggest road test of the entire conference schedule. The schedule makers have not been kind to Wright State as they'll end up playing five in a row on the road after all is said and done next week. They hadn't won a single time away from home before beating Oakland on Saturday, so it might seem like they're in trouble here, but I think it's quite the contrary. This is the first time Wright State will have been an underdog in conference play this season. They did sweep Northern Kentucky last year, winning both games by a total of just five points. For what it's worth, it was Wright State picked over Northern Kentucky in the preseason Horizon League poll. As good as Northern Kentucky has looked at home so far, the last five meetings between these teams have all been decided by seven points or less. Wright State might only be 8-9 SU this season, but they have six losses by seven points or less, not to mention four by 4 pts or less. They're a better team than their SU record and I expect them to "show up" in a big way tonight. 10* Wright State |
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01-10-19 | Pistons +5.5 v. Kings | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
8* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons lost again Wednesday night, this time to the LeBron-less Lakers. The final score was 113-100 as they fell victim to a 41-point outburst from Kyle Kuzma, who played just three quarters. That's a pretty embarrassing setback all things considered and if the Pistons want to be considered a playoff team they can't afford to drop another game tonight. I know the Lakers were w/o LeBron last night, but I find it interesting that the Kings are laying more points to Detroit than LA did. This looks to be a classic scenario where the team playing in the second night of back to back is being undervalued. Detroit is desperate at this point. Grab the points. For some time now, I've been writing how skeptical I am over Sacramento's chances to stay viable in the playoff hunt in an absolutely loaded Western Conference. Sure enough, my skepticism is starting to come to fruition as the Kings have dropped four of their last five games. Their most recent setback came Tuesday as they blew a 21-point lead on the road and lost at Phoenix. That'll be tough to overcome and it should be pointed out that the Suns are the only team "out of it" in the Western Conference. The Kings simply aren't favored very often (happened only 8 times), so they make a good fade for me tonight as it's even more rare to see them laying this many points. The Pistons have dropped three in a row, six out of their last seven and 15 out of their last 19 games. Playing the second night of a back to back might seem like the LEAST likely time for them to turn things around, but they are facing the team that gives up the most points per game (116.4) in the Western Conference. That should allow for a Detroit team that often struggles to score to "make some hay" tonight. The Pistons have covered three of their four times they've been in the 2nd game of a back to back. They're getting too many points here and an outright win would not surprise me in the least. 8* Detroit |
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01-10-19 | Thunder -1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 147-154 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:35 ET): The Thunder are in off B2B outright losses (to Washington & Minnesota!), both at home no less. But they're in a great spot tonight to ambush the Spurs, who had to play last night. We won going against San Antonio Wednesday, calling it an "ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL" and sure enough they lost outright in Memphis, 96-86. While that was just the fourth loss for the Spurs in their L17 games, I'll call for them to drop B2B games for the 1st time since early December as they're "due" to start giving some back following a 14-2 ATS stretch. I actually was a winner in OKC's last game as well, only w/ the Over. They were facing Minnesota and it ended up being a wild shootout w/ the Thunder coming out on the losing end, 119-117. Honestly, I'm not sure how OKC lost that game to a Minnesota team playing for the 1st time since firing Tom Thibodeau. Well, actually I do. Free throws were the difference w/ the T'wolves going 32 of 40 from the line. Andrew Wiggins was 16 of 18 alone while OKC made only 19 FT's as a team for the entire game. Still, the Thunder are 10 games above .500 and own the best YTD point differential in the Western Conference. Being in the second night of a back to back is not good news for the Spurs as they are just 1-6 SU in that role this season. They'll also be w/o forward Rudy Gay again. It was certainly an ugly offensive showing last night w/ San Antonio tying a season-low w/ 31 pts in the 1st half. They also set season lows in field goals made (30) and assists (14). While at home tonight, they'll be facing an OKC team that ranks #1 in the league in defensive efficiency by a fairly comfortable margin. Again, I come back to the likelihood of the Spurs "giving some back" after the incredible stretch over the last month or so. This is the front end of a home and home between the teams and I believe OKC is in an excellent position to sweep the two games. It starts w/ a win on TNT tonight! 10* Oklahoma City |
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01-10-19 | Middle Tennessee +11.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
10* Play on Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So, as alluded to in the promo for this pick, two nights ago saw me win with a Missouri State team that had previously been pretty dreadful at the pay window this season. But that didn't stop them from going to Indiana State and winning outright, 72-57, in shockingly easy fashion. I'm not saying this dog is going to win that easy, or even win outright, but we're getting a really good value on Middle Tennessee due to their terrible 1-12 ATS record this season. That's the worst ATS record in the country right now. But tonight they're facing a Southern Miss team that's lost three in a row and getting double digits. I say take the points. Not only has Middle Tennessee not been covering, they haven't been winning much either. Their last SU victory came back on November 16th against Charleston Southern, 76-73, a game they were favored to win by 9.5 points. Their only other two SU wins both came against non-DI competition. The Blue Raiders have taken on some tough competition over the last two months, facing the likes of Virginia, Butler, Vanderbilt, Murray State and Ole Miss. I won't bore you w/ the particulars, but it generally hasn't been a fun time. That said, conference play has opened w/ a pair of close losses, the first time they've started 0-2 in C-USA in over a decade. The Blue Raiders were actually favored their last time out (vs. FAU) and led by seven points at halftime. So that's a step in the right direction. As bad as things have been for Middle Tennessee this year, I remain unconvinced that Southern Miss should be a DD fave in this spot, even in Hattiesburg. The Golden Eagles are coming off a brutal six-game road trip, which ended w/ three consecutive defeats. They've generally been competitive, even against the likes of Wichita State and Kansas State, but competitive "won't cut it" in this price range. Setting aside a couple wins against non-DI opponents, USM has not won many games by significant margins this season. They even lost to a non-DI team, William Carey, back on November 25th! It's an 0-5 ATS record for the Golden Eagles as chalk this season. 10* Play on Middle Tennessee |
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01-09-19 | CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside +1.5 | Top | 84-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): I don't understand the way this line is moving - at all. The home team (UC Riverside) is clearly the better side here, yet not even getting the "token" respect one deserves when playing in their own gym. Perhaps this is because Cal State Northridge comes in on a 5-0 ATS run. But the Matadors have dropped B2B games SU, losing by five at San Diego State, then by four at home to Yale. Those close calls may very well have taken something out of it the Matadors (especially the Yale game as it went to OT) heading into tonight's Big West opener where UC Riverside will be primed for a big performance. Recently, I took UC Riverside in a big spot and they delivered. It was here at home, December 22nd, against a Loyola Marymount team that had lost only one game all season. As nine-point dogs, the Highlanders delivered for me in a major way, winning outright 60-53. Then came one of the more brutal B2B road games I've seen any team have to play all season. Wrapping up 2018, they had to play at Air Force and Western Michigan in a three-day span. That's quite a bit of holiday travel and sure enough the Highlanders dropped both games. But upon returning home last week, they crushed Bethesda (non-DI school) 112-47 in a "tune up" for conference play. UC Riverside is 5-1 SU at home this season, allowing just 59 PPG. That's a far cry from the kind of defense Cal State Northridge plays as they're allowing 83.6 PPG this season (345th in the country!). Again, neither of these teams are going to be cutting down the nets in March, but I just don't see how you can make the case that the home team isn't the better side here and should be priced as such. Cal State Northridge is outside my top 300 for crying out loud, so expecting them to win on the road seems a bit foolish to me. If they end up closing as a road favorite here, it would mark the 1st time all season for them in that role. A key to this game could be the fact the visitors are terrible from the FT line, shooting at a 63% clip there. They're also below 30% from three-point range on the road while allowing opponents to shoot almost 40%. 10* UC Riverside |
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01-09-19 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +3 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
8* Memphis (8:05 ET): Talk about two teams that have experienced very different fortunes at the betting window recently. San Antonio has covered seven in a row as well as 14 of its last 16 games (also 13-3 SU over that same timeframe). Memphis, on the other hand, is a putrid 1-12 ATS its L13 games, also losing 11 of those straight up. Both streaks are something you don't see very often, thus this confluence has me thinking "regression to the mean" tonight as one is due not to cover and the other is long overdue to cash. Take the points here in what shapes up as a "trap game" for the Spurs. This is San Antonio's second road game in three nights. They won in Detroit Monday, 119-107, covering in a similar price range. Even w/ a six-game losing streak, I have the Grizzlies rated higher than the Pistons, so that's some value right off the bat here. It was not a good start to the game for the Spurs Monday night in the Motor City as they initially trailed by eight in the 1st quarter. But even w/ the win, their record record is still just 7-12 SU for the year and how well they defend has been a big issue when comparing home and road games. At home, San Antonio allows just 103.6 PPG. On the road, they're allowing 114.3. That's one of, if not THE, biggest home vs. road split in the league. Something I have yet to mention is these teams did just meet in San Antonio last weekend. True to the respective recent forms, the Spurs won and covered that game, winning 108-88 as 8.5-pt chalk. While the Spurs were able to win at Detroit in the middle of this home & home, the Grizzlies went and lost at New Orleans by 19 points. I realize that it doesn't sound too good for Memphis coming into this game, but they remain one of the top defensive teams in the league, ranking 2nd in points per game allowed (102.9). If they can get the offense going tonight, then they should be in great shape. I say they will. 8* Memphis |
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01-09-19 | Auburn -2.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Auburn (7:00 ET): #11 Auburn is set to begin its SEC schedule w/ a visit to Oxford to face an Ole Miss team that has been a covering machine this season. Obviously, this can be a tricky spot for Bruce Pearl's team seeing as Ole Miss has been the best ATS team in the country so far at 12-1. But it's a spot that I believe the Tigers are set up well to prevail. They're certainly well rested having yet to play a game in 2019. Conversely, Ole Miss had to play over the weekend, opening its SEC slate w/ a 10-pt road win over Vanderbilt. Auburn is one of the top teams in the country though and a great value on Wednesday's NCAAB card. Lay the points. I think people forget just how good this Auburn team is. They won the SEC last season. To me, they're a legit Top 10 team w/ an offense that ranks 9th in efficiency. They come in averaging 85.2 PPG on the year w/ four players averaging in double figures, led by senior Bryce Brown's 15.3 PPG. The last time they played was December 29th when they crushed North Florida 95-49 as 23-pt chalk. That's actually the ONLY game the Tigers have played in the L17 days. It ended a five-game ATS slide, but something to keep in mind is they were a DD favorite in the majority of those contests. For a team that was actually favored to win at NC State, this is a great value. You've got to tip your cap to the job being done by HC Kermit Davis in his 1st year here at Ole Miss, but I can't help but feel the Rebels are a bit overrated coming into this game. They have won eight in a row, but none of the opponents were even close to the caliber of what awaits them tonight. The last time Ole Miss played a ranked team was November 24th and they lost to Cincinnati by double digits. They haven't lost since (8-0 SI/ATS), but I've got to come back to the fact that the Rebels were NOT expected to contend in the SEC this season. This is going to be a challenging week for them, first w/ this game, then a visit to rival Mississippi State over the weekend. Auburn won both meetings LY, including a nine-point win here in Oxford. Tonight will be a "reality check" for Ole Miss. 8* Auburn |
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01-08-19 | Knicks +18.5 v. Warriors | Top | 95-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
8* New York (10:35 ET): I understand this is the type of bet that few want to make, but sometimes it's just better to "hold your nose" and take the points. Because a Golden State team that has proven to be far more vulnerable than they've been in past years is simply laying too many points tonight. I realize that the Knicks are not a good basketball team and they are playing in the second night of a back to back (lost 111-101 in Portland last night). But this is simply way too many points for the Warriors to be laying considering they're just 2-7 ATS the L9 games overall. Take the points. Now there's no sugarcoating the Knicks' difficulties. They have only two wins since December 1st and one of them was against the LeBron-less Lakers (last Friday). The only other win in the last 16 games came by two points, in overtime, against the Hornets. But as bad as things have been this yaer for the Knickerbockers, there have been only three losses in the 2-14 SU stretch that have come by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for here. Sure, they're playing Golden State tonight. But the Warriors should no longer be considered "head and shoulders" above the rest of the league. There have been two issues for Golden State this year. One was injuries, something that has largely been cleared up now. So given they're now healthier than they've been most of the season, what gives? Well, they have slipped rather dramatically on the defensive end of the floor. Over the last four years, many failed to appreciate how the Dubs were actually one of the top defensive teams in the league. This season, they've slipped to 15th in efficiency and are giving up more than 112 PPG. In their last game, they allowed Sacramento to shoot 20 of 36 from three-point range in what ended up as a record-setting display from behind the arc. The game before that, they failed to protect a 20-point second half lead vs. Houston. GSW actually enters this game on a three-game home losing streak. Just too many points to lay on a random Tuesday. 8* New York |
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01-08-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -11.5 | Top | 54-84 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
8* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I targeted early on (in the season) as a regular fade and quite frankly I should have continued to do so (fade them, that is) more. The Cowboys' record is now 4-11 SU, 3-11 ATS and two of those SU wins were of the two-point variety, one of them against non-DI school Dixie State. Now that I've hopefully established that the Pokes aren't a very good team, I'll let you know that they have little to no chance tonight at San Diego State. The Aztecs are looking to rebound from a bad loss at Boise State over the weekend and will be in an ornery mood. Lay the points. San Diego State lost by 24 up in Boise Saturday. It was their second bad loss in the last three games as they also went down in shocking fashion at home (by 19 points) to Brown the previous weekend. In between, they did beat Cal State Northridge, but failed to cover. I made the mistake of laying the points with them there, but off this loss I feel they're in better position to cover. Wyoming's power rating is still propped up by way too lofty preseason expectations that were clearly foolish. Even last year's 20-win team was just awful defensively (78.7 PPG allowed). Losing four of the top five scorers from that team was always going to be too much to overcome. San Diego State's is a "buy low" stock right now after two bad losses in the last 10 days. I was shocked to see how poorly the Aztecs played Saturday night in Boise. This is normally a very good defensive team. Luckily, this game is in their gym where they only allow 63.7 PPG on 38.9% shooting. Their average margin of victory at home this year is 16.5 PPG. This is what I call a "get well" game for the favorite as Wyoming is very bad and SDSU is much better than what they've shown recently. 8* San Diego State |
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01-08-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -11.5 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is off quite the impressive win here as they went to Toledo on Saturday and easily ended the Rockets' 10-game win streak, doing so in 79-64 fashion (as 4.5-pt dogs). The Cardinals have now won and covered four in a row since suffering an outright loss to Evansville (a team they'd beaten earlier in the season) back on December 9th. They've won 9 of 10 overall since an early three-game stretch against power conference teams (Alabama, Purdue, Va Tech). They've yet to lose a game here in Muncie, winning by an average of 31.8 PPG! Sounds to me like they should roll against a bad Eastern Michigan squad Tuesday night. Lay the points. Do you remember the last time I faded Eastern Michigan? Maybe not as it was all the way back on November 19th. But I certainly do & it's a game Eagles' fans would just as soon forget. They set a NCAA record for offensive futility in a half, scoring just FOUR points before the break (yes, you read that correctly). They ended up losing 63-36 to Rutgers, one of the easiest bets I have ever made in my life. You would think that game would make the nadir of the season in Ypsilanti and perhaps it will be. But things have really gotten no better for EMU as they're now 1-9 ATS this season, including 0-7 as a dog. They have just two SU wins in the L9 games and both were against non-DI teams. The Eagles are 0-5 SU on the road, losing by an average of 24.2 PPG. Eastern Michigan's last "effort" was a 16-point home loss at Buffalo on Friday night. Before that, they lost by 24 at Kansas. Earlier in the analysis, I mentioned Ball State's tremendous MOV here in Muncie and that has a lot to do w/ them averaging 98.0 PPG at home. They are 6-2 ATS when favored this year and considering how bad Eastern Michigan has been on the road, this is really not that high of a pointspread. The Cardinals' last four wins have all been by double digits. This is also a team that went to Loyola IL (Final 4 team LY) and won last month. 8* Ball State |
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01-08-19 | Missouri State +8.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 72-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
8* Missouri State (7:00 ET): For the lone underdog selection in this package, we turn to a Missouri State team that might be a little shorthanded (two reserves out), but is also also being undervalued. Like Eastern Michigan, the Bears are a team that struggles to win on the road. In fact, they have yet to do so in eight previous tries (1-5 ATS). Despite this, we're still looking at a team that has a positive point differential on the year (in all games). They're playing a team Tuesday (Indiana State) that they've had plenty of success against in the past. I'll take the points. Indiana State won over the weekend, but only by five over a bad Bradley team. That game was here in Terre Haute. Larry Bird (school's most famous alum) "ain't walking through that door" this year for the Sycamores, who are a respectable 9-5 SU, but most of their losses have come in blowout fashion. Before beating Bradley, they were destroyed by 35 at Loyola Chicago. In that game, Indiana State scored just *12* points in the first half. Things obviously went much better offensively vs. Bradley, but that was tied to the fact they attempted 47 free throws, twice the number as their opponents. It also helped Bradley was a miserable 3 of 20 from 3-pt range. Missouri State is off a bad 82-66 loss at home to Valparaiso, a game that they were favored to win by 5.5 points. That result undoubtedly had an effect on the pointspread for this one as my numbers say these long-time Missouri Valley rivals would be close to even at a neutral setting. Missouri State played a terrible 1st half vs. Valpo, going into the break down 46-24. That was on the heels of losing a close one at Southern Illinois. I mentioned earlier that the Bears have had Indiana State's number the last couple years. They are 4-0 SU against them the L2 seasons including a 19-pt win here in Terre Haute last February. They'll at least stay within the number here. 8* Missouri State |
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01-06-19 | Wisconsin +1 v. Penn State | Top | 71-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (7:30 ET): There's never a good time to lose your coach (more on that in a moment), but for Penn State today is most inopportune as they'll be facing an angry Wisconsin team that is coming in off B2B losses. Nittany Lions HC Pat Chambers will not be on the bench here as he is suspended for shoving freshman Myles Dread in a heated altercation during the team's 68-55 loss at Michigan Thursday. It has already been a disappointing season in Happy Valley w/ Penn State starting just 7-7 SU overall, including an 0-3 mark in Big 10 play. I'm shocked they are listed in the pick 'em range here. Both of Wisconsin's recent losses came as favorites. The more shocking of the two was two Saturdays ago at Western Kentucky. But, for what it's worth, that was a road game and WKU had already beaten one ranked team this year in Bowling Green (West Virginia). The Badgers allowed 67.8% shooting in the second half of the game, which pretty much means you'll lose to anybody. Then, on Thursday, they couldn't buy a bucket in Madison as they lost 59-52 to Minnesota. That game saw them score only 14 pts in the 1st half and they killed themselves at the FT line where they finished the game just 7 of 17. As they showed vs. Minnesota, the defensive issues that cost Wisconsin against WKU are certainly correctable. This is still a top 20 team nationally in defensive efficiency, mind you. So is Penn State, but their defense is likely to suffer in a game where they're playing w/o their head coach. The Badgers won here LY, holding the Nittany Lions to 35% shooting, including 2 of 14 from three-point range. I would have made them around a three-point favorite here even if Chambers was coaching this game for PSU. But he's not and I look for the Nittany Lions to drop to 0-4 ATS in conference play this season. Penn State has been pretty dreadful on offense this season, shooting below 40% in Big 10 play and just 32.1% for the year from three-point range. 10* Wisconsin |
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01-05-19 | Colorado State v. Fresno State -15 | Top | 67-78 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): FSU is a team I won w/ earlier in the week as they went to San Jose State and blew out the Spartans 73-53 as 14.5-point favorites. As I mentioned in that analysis, the Bulldogs were coming off a very embarrassing loss to Utah Valley State (were 10-pt home favorites) as they shot a dreadful 34% from the field. As expected, they bounced back in a major way against one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They wasted little time in gaining an early lead as they shot better than 60% from the floor in the 1st half and took a 22-pt lead into the break. From there, it was smooth sailing. I believe Fresno State is likely to consider its mastery of the Mountain West tonight as they're back at home. Lay the points. Colorado State might be a little stronger than San Jose State, but they still should not present much of a challenge to FSU. The Rams come into this game having dropped eight of nine, including four straight. Their lone win during that stretch came at the expense of Sam Houston State. The last four losses have been a particularly brutal streak for CSU as three of the defeats have been by five points or less. But even w/ those close calls, I don't expect them to compete here as Fresno State is a much tougher opponent than what the Rams have faced recently. Last year, they came to this building and lost by 21 when priced similarly by the oddsmakers. Fresno State is putting together an impressive season at 10-3 SU. The loss to Utah Valley State right before the New Year is the only time they've been beaten at home. Their other two losses were to Miami and TCU, both by single digits. All but one of their wins have come by double digits and at home they're winning by an average of 17.3 PPG. Offensively, they have been very sharp, averaging nearly 80 PPG. Colorado State has been a sieve defensively, giving up almost 80 PPG. This is a second road game in four nights for the Rams and they may very well be spent after taking another close loss at UNLV Wednesday (blew 10-pt second half lead). They are ripe for the "pickin'" here. 8* Fresno State |
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01-04-19 | Thunder +1 v. Blazers | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): In looking at this matchup, I was pretty shocked to learn that the Thunder are just 1-7 SU/ATS the L8 meetings, including an 0-4 SU/ATS mark here in Portland. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me considering the two teams have been relative equals during that stretch. Is there something that the Blazers specifically do that gives OKC trouble? I don't think so. It should be pointed out that virtually all of the games have been close w/ Portland winning four times by five points or less. One thing that I do know is that the Thunder are certainly the better team this season. They lead the league in defensive efficiency & are tops in the Western Conference in point differential. Tonight, I look for them to break their losing streak here in the Pacific Northwest. OKC comes in having won 7 of 10 w/ the three losses coming by a total of eight points. On Wednesday, they downed the LeBron-less Lakers 107-100 as 5.5-pt road chalk, led by Paul George's 37 points. That game also saw PG Russell Westbrook set a dubious honor w/ the worst shooting percentage in a game (3 for 20) by an individual player that finished w/ a triple double. Westbrook has been struggling w/ his shooting for awhile now, but it has hardly mattered as George is averaging 33.0 points the L10 games. Eventually, Westbrook (the NBA's assist leader) is going to get his shot back. As mentioned above, one area that the Thunder aren't having much difficulty in is defense as they are the ONLY team in the league currently NOT allowing a full point per possession. Portland, like OKC, is in off B2B wins and won 7 of its last 10 overall. I actually took them on New Year's Day in a 113-108 overtime win in Sacramento. That game saw the Blazers blow a 14-point halftime lead and need to rally late just to force OT. Virtually all of Portland's recent wins, save for one over Philadelphia who was w/o Joel Embiid, have been close. The other six have all come by seven points or less and by 26 pts total. Coupled w/ the recent history against the Thunder and I'd saw the Blazers are "due" to drop a close one tonight. Oddsmakers are somewhat "tipping their hand" here in thinking OKC is the better team and I concur. 8* Oklahoma City |
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01-04-19 | Hawks v. Bucks -14 | Top | 112-144 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): The Bucks have had a favorable schedule recently and taken full advantage, winning four straight in blowout fashion (also going 4-0 ATS despite being DD favorites in every game). They've played the Knicks twice, Brooklyn and Detroit during that stretch, the last three coming here at home and every win has been by at least 14 points. As easy as that stretch sounds, tonight things look to be even easier w/ the lowly Hawks paying a visit. The Bucks now own the best win percentage (.722) and top point differential (+9.3 per game) in the league. They should roll again tonight. Lay the points. Atlanta is actually now ahead of three teams in the East, but that only speaks to how bad the bottom of the Conference really is this year. They'd won five of six entering New Year's Eve, but have since fallen back into their "old ways," losing the first two games of this three-game road trip that ends tonight. They lost by eight in Indiana, then by 16 in Washington (who is w/o John Wall). That last loss certainly isn't a good sign for tonight as the difference between the Wizards and Bucks is quite severe. The Hawks were outscored 26-14 in the 4Q in D.C. and now face a much better defensive team. Getting held under 100 pts by one of the worst defensive teams in the league is a bad sign as Milwaukee is top three in defensive efficiency. The Bucks have dominated at home this year, going 17-3 SU and winning by an average of 13.8 PPG. Most of the teams they face are better than Atlanta, so I see no reason why they can't win by a margin greater than that YTD average. The Hawks are 5-16 SU on the road and give up 117.4 PPG. Not only is Milwaukee top three in the league in defensive efficiency, they also are #1 in scoring as 1st year HC Mike Budenholzer has transformed this team into an elite 3-pt shooting group. This is Budenholzer's first chance to face his former team and I suspect his current crop of players will look to make a statement on his behalf. This is about as big a mismatch as you'll find in this league as the Hawks are 29th in offensive efficiency. 10* Milwaukee |
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01-03-19 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:05 ET): As I said Tuesday (when I also played against them), I'm simply not a buyer on the Kings, who have surprisingly stayed in playoff contention in a loaded Western Conference. Before the season, it was them and the Suns that were expected to be at the bottom of the Western Conference. Phoenix certainly lived up to its "advanced billing," but Sacramento is somehow a game above .500 as we approach the halfway mark of the season, which is something no one saw coming. But there are some signs that this isn't going to last, namely the fact they give up the most points per game in the Western Conference. Also, despite being a game over .500, they've been outscored by 1.7 PPG, which is the second worst differential in the West. Denver is at the top of the Western Conference right now, one-half game ahead of Golden State, which is a pretty remarkable achievement considering all the injuries they had to deal w/ in the Rocky Mountain city. They are now getting healthier w/ both Gary Harris Jr and Paul Millsap returning to the lineup. Harris, normally a starter, came off the bench in his return Tuesday and scored 6 pts in 20 mins. Millsap had 16 pts in the team's 115-108 win over the Knicks Tuesday, second only to Nikola Jokic's 20. The Nuggets have failed to cover five straight games, but this looks to be a tremendous value on the clearly superior side. Sacramento is the team now dealing with problems on the injury front as they are w/o rookie Marvin Bagley III. The OT loss to Portland (here at home) Tuesday night dropped the Kings to 4-5 SU w/o Bagley. Not having him tonight will make defending Jokic difficult and as noted earlier this is a team that already has its issues defending. Despite blowing a second half lead against Portland and losing in OT, note the Kings were actually down 14 at the half in that game. This is an even tougher opponent that they're facing tonight, one that has won seven of its last nine games overall and beat the Kings by double digits back in October. 8* Denver |
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01-03-19 | UTEP +7 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* UTEP (8:00 ET): I don't see any real difference between these foes coming into the C-USA opener, thus I'll be taking what certainly appears to be an inflated number. Both UTEP and UTSA enter this game at a game below .500, though the host Roadrunners have played two more games. UTSA has won three in a row, but all were against clearly inferior opponents (two games not even lined). UTEP has been the better bet at the window this year as they've covered six of their last seven games, including a 76-65 win over Wyoming back on 12.22. They've been off ever since and come into this game w/ legit triple revenge for a trio of losses suffered to UTSA last season. Maybe it's the fact that UTEP hasn't won on the road yet that has the oddsmakers "down" on them here. But it's not as if the Miners haven't played a challenging set of road games thus far. They've visited New Mexico State, Arizona, New Mexico and Marquette. They covered the last two times on the road, including losing to Marquette by only seven. It was 12 days ago that the Miners last played, winning the 3rd place game in the Sun Belt Invitational over Wyoming. The only other time in this season they've played w/ this much rest was when they ended up beating Cal Riverside by double digits back on 12.16. The Miners have played only three games in the L30 days, so they should be extremely well-rested coming into tonight's conference opener. The triple revenge angle is huge here as two of the three losses UTEP suffered to UTSA last year were by four points. Then, on an awful shooting night, they lost to them again in the C-USA Tournament. But I'm just "not seeing it" w/ this UTSA team right now as three of their six wins have come against non-DI opponents and their "best" win was against a Texas A&M-Corpus Christi team that I wouldn't even consider among the top 275 teams in the country. The Roadrunners boast only two double-digit scorers and shoot just 31.8% from three-point range. Though 2-0 ATS as chalk YTD, they are simply not trustworthy in this price range. Take the points. 8* UTEP |
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01-02-19 | Fresno State -13.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 73-53 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This lines up as a colossal mismatch on the Wednesday card. Fresno State is one of several teams across the country that recently suffered a rather head-scratching loss. Theirs came at home Saturday against Utah Valley State. FSU was a 10-point home favorite, but lost 64-60 as they shot a dreadful 34.0% from the field. That snapped a seven-game win streak and was a "far cry" from what we usually see from this Bulldogs team on the offensive end as they still average over 80 PPG for the year. This is only their second "true" road game of the year, but I had them in the 1st and they covered there (at TCU). Lay the points this time. San Jose State is very bad. I count them outside the top 300 teams in the country. Now the Spartans are coming off a difficult three-game road trek where they had to play two Pac 12 teams (Stanford, Cal), then St. Mary's. In the finale, they were blown out by 30 and scored a season-low 45 points. This is a team w/ only three wins this year. One was against Life Pacific (an actual team, not a life insurance company!) and the other two were by a total of seven points against Bethune-Cookman and Northern Arizona, two other very bad teams. Among schools w/ both a D-I football and basketball program, SJSU may have the weakest athletic department in the country. The school's football program is among the worst in the country and so is the basketball team. San Jose State won just a single game in conference play last season (by two points!), going 1-17 SU against the rest of the Mountain West. They were 4-26 SU overall. They have now lost 35 of their last 41 games. Fresno State beat them twice last season, by nearly identical scores - 77-59 at home and 77-57 on the road. It was a simple case of an "off-shooting night" for FSU against Utah Valley State as their percentages were down across the board. Look for them to bounce back in a major way in this Mt. West Conference opener. 8* Fresno State |
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01-02-19 | Northern Iowa +8 v. Bradley | Top | 65-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): What in the world has happened in Cedar Falls? Northern Iowa, a once proud program, has fallen on some really hard times the last couple seasons including a 5-8 SU start this year. The Panthers have been even more dreadful against the pointspread, owning a 1-10 ATS mark this year. That shows the oddsmakers have been a little slow in keeping up w/ the program's overall regression. But here they've overadjusted as UNI is set to face a middling Bradley team that's been pretty overrated all season. The Braves have proven to be a poor bet in the role of favorite, so I'm taking the points here in the Missouri Valley Conference opener for both. Over the L6 games, Bradley has lost outright THREE different times as a favorite. Two of those were here at home as both New Mexico (+7.5) and Eastern Illinois (+13) came to Normal and pulled upsets. The Braves have not played since 12/22 when they barely escaped SE Louisiana, winning by only three as 13-point favorites. On a poor shooting night overall (34.0 FG%), Bradley made a three-pointer in the final seconds to notch the SU win. Their last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. I just think it would be a mistake to expect this team to win by any kind of margin, especially against a conference foe following a long layoff. The Braves are just 1-5 ATS in home games this season. Northern Iowa's only ATS win this year came back on 11/19 against Old Dominion (favorite to win the Colonial), a 54-53 upset as 2.5-pt dogs. In a weird scheduling spot, the Panthers then had to face the Monarchs again four days later (on the road) and lost by seven, starting the current 7-game ATS slide. Last Saturday, UNI lost at home to Stony Brook as 1.5-pt chalk, 73-63. Stony Brook isn't a bad team mind you (set school record w/ 12 non-conf wins this Year). As ugly as things have gotten for the Panthers at the betting window this year, I have to believe they're being undervalued in this spot. 10* Northern Iowa |
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01-02-19 | Heat v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 117-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): These teams just met last week in Miami. The Heat won 118-94, as 10.5-pt favorites, so as you can see the oddsmakers have adjusted their ratings a bit for the rematch. But I'm not convinced that the Heat will enjoy the same advantages here as they did down on South Beach last week. For starters, will they shoot 52.7% from the field again while holding the Cavs to 38.3%? Seems questionable. While 9-5 SU in December, Miami isn't a particularly good shooting team (just 43.6% overall) and they are playing w/o Goran Dragic. Sunday's home loss to the T'wolves meant this team still hasn't been above .500 since starting the year 3-2. Cleveland certainly has its issues (30th in defensive efficiency, injuries), but five of their eight wins this year have come at home. They've been off since Saturday when they lost down in Atlanta by only three points. Obviously, the Hawks aren't a good team, but at least the Cavs (just barely) covered as 3.5-point pups. It was also the second night of a back to back as they were fresh off losing in Miami. That game saw Cleveland come out red hot (shot 58% in the 1st quarter) only to fall apart the rest of the way. One player to watch here is Collin Sexton, the Cavs' leading scorer, who had only eight points (shot 2 of 10) last week in Miami. I expect him to be a lot more prolific tonight. The Heat are certainly better than the Cavaliers, but I'm not sure if they're THIS much better (i.e. what the oddsmakers are calling for) on the road. They've gotten to seventh place in weak Eastern Conference, but have barely outscored their opponents this year while posting a negative efficiency rating. In terms of true shooting percentage, they are right near the bottom of the league. We do not see them as a road favorite very often (only 5x previously this year) and certainly not one of this size. Losers of six straight and w/ the worst SU record in the league right now, I think Cleveland is going to be motivate here. Take the points. 10* Cleveland |
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01-01-19 | Blazers -1 v. Kings | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
8* Portland (9:05 ET): Sacramento is somehow still in playoff contention, something I wouldn't have thought possible prior to the start of the season. But despite being two games over .500, the Kings have been outscored by the second worst margin in the entire Western Conference (only Phoenix worse obviously). One of the main reasons that I do NOT see them maintaining their winning record is a lack of defense. The Kings rank dead last in the West in points allowed (116.8 PPG) and they've allowed more than 120 per game over their last four contests. Portland has had a bit of an "up and down" campaign, but is five games over .500 and tied w/ the Lakers for 6th in the West. They are just one-half game back of 4th as well. The team is certainly coming off one of its better moments of the season, that being a 129-95 beatdown of Philadelphia Saturday night. They shot a scorching 59.0% from the field, including 12 of 22 from three-point range. They did so while at the same time holding the 76ers to just 35.4% overall shooting and 8 of 43 (18.6%!) from three-point ranger. Going into the fourth quarter, the Blazers were up by 39 points. This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams. Though they may not match the numbers from the Philadelphia game, I still expect Portland to score in bunches tonight. Also, as a favorite this season, the Blazers have won (straight up) 14 out of 19 times. I think this is an outstanding value on a superior side. You should expect the Kings to continue to tumble down the standings and by season's end I would not be surprised if the only thing keeping them out of the conference basement is Phoenix. In games where the O/U is 230 points or higher, Sacramento is just 4-10 SU this season. 8* Portland |
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01-01-19 | Jazz +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 116-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Utah (7:05 ET): Though they're below .500, the 18-19 Jazz are a team that continues to get respect from oddsmakers. As they should. Note they've not only outscored opponents this season, they've done so by roughly the same margin as the 21-16 Lakers. This was a team projected to finish near the top of the Western Conference standings (prior to the start of the year), so right now I feel that the remain in an excellent "buy low" situation. With tonight's opponent still w/o two of its best players (Lowry, Valanciunas), this is a great game-specific spot to take the Jazz plus the points. Toronto has enjoyed a tremendous first half to the season. They're 27-11 SU and battling Milwaukee for 1st place in the Eastern Conference. But, partly due to the injuries, the Raptors have covered only 1 of their last 8 games (1-6-1 ATS). The last two have been particularly ugly w/ a 116-87 loss at Orlando (worst loss of the season) and only beating Chicago 95-89. Lowry has played just one game since 12.12 and Valanciunas is out for a couple more weeks. Without the duo, the Raptors have actually suffered their two worst losses of the year over the L10 days (also lost by 25 @ Philly). When evaluating Utah's record, it's important to make note that they've played the toughest schedule in the league and 21 of their 37 games have been on the road. Their next four games will all be on the road, against Eastern Conference foes, including a trip to Milwaukee. But note they come into the trip on a positive note having just blown out the Knicks by 32 on Saturday night. I had the Over and Utah turned in one of its best offensive showings of the year, led by Rudy Gobert's 25 pts and 16 rebounds. The Jazz have revenge here for a 13-point loss at home last month. They are 5-1 ATS when seeking to revenge a home defeat this season. 10* Utah |
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01-01-19 | CS-Northridge v. San Diego State -15.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
10* San Diego State (3:00 ET): The Aztecs are off an absolutely shocking loss to Brown on Saturday. It's not just THAT they lost, it's HOW. They fell 82-61 as 11-pt favorites, getting victimized by a barrage of three-pointers from the Ivy League contingent. The 1st half in particular was as shocking as any box score you'll see all season w/ Brown going into the break w/ a 50-22 advantage. The Bears shot only nine free throws for the game, but went 15 of 28 from three-point range and shot 53.4% overall. That was a far cry from SDSU's shooting as they went just 35.2% overall from the field, including 5 of 17 from behind the arc. I expect a massive bounce back on New Year's Day. Lay the points. What made that loss to Brown all the more shocking is that it simply was not in line w/ the Aztecs' season performance at all. Even after the disaster Saturday, visitors are still shooting just 29.2% from three-point range here, for the season. The Aztecs allow just 64.3 PPG at home. Also, as impressive as those defensive numbers are, the Aztecs also rank 53rd in the country in offensive efficiency. They average 82.4 PPG at home. Perhaps SDSU could be tested defensively here by a CS Northridge squad that averages almost 80 PPG itself. But there's a reason that the Matadors lost 8 of their first 10 games vs. D-I opponents this season. They can't stop anybody. They are allowing a frightening 84.2 PPG and predictably that number goes up even further when they're on the road as home teams are hitting over 40% against them from three-point range. The Matadors have managed to win three straight (also 3-0 ATS), including a 94-86 home win over Morgan State on Saturday. But they are just 8-20 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. This should be a big bounce back game for the home favorite. 10* San Diego State |
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12-31-18 | Magic +7.5 v. Hornets | Top | 100-125 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
8* Orlando (6:05 ET): Divisions are fairly meaningless in the NBA, but it's worth noting that the Southeast doesn't have a single team w/ a winning record. Yet, because the Eastern Conference is so weak, we could see as many as two teams make the playoffs (at least one will). Charlotte seems to be the division's best right now, but that's mostly faint praise as their penchant for losing close games continues to be an absolute killer. Saturday, they lost by four at Washington, who was without John Wall (out for season). That setback doesn't even add to the fact the Hornets are a ghastly 4-22 SU in games decided by three points or less the last 3 seasons. Maybe they start winning some of those moving forward? Regardless, I don't see them winning big tonight. Orlando has had its troubles with Charlotte the last few seasons. They are 0-9 SU against them the L3 seasons and 1-8 ATS. This includes a humiliating 32-point loss at home back in October. I'm sure the Magic players remember that one and will be out for revenge here. While December has not been the best month for the Magic, they are at least ending it in strong fashion. Friday night, they blew out the Raptors 116-87. Last night, they edged the Pistons 109-107. Both wins were at home, but let's note the fact Orlando is 9-4 ATS on the road this season and 15-9 ATS as an underdog. Statistically, they've actually been a better team on the road this year and they're 8-3-1 ATS as a road dog. Charlotte has given up 130+ points in two of its last three games. While one of those (134-132 loss at Brooklyn) went to overtime, the number of points allowed certainly doesn't bode well for the Hornets as a mid-size favorite. Especially since they just lost to a Wizards team w/o Wall despite Kemba Walker scoring 47 points. Orlando is being undervalued here b/c of the back to back, but it's not like they've played poorly in this scenario previously (2-0-1 ATS on the road). The key for them here is getting to 100 pts, something they should easily do against a Charlotte team that's giving up 111.4 PPG. The Magic are 12-7 SU this year when topping 100 pts. Defensively, the Magic are 7th in the league, allowing just 107.0 PPG. They held Detroit to just 48 pts in the 2H last night. Take the points. 8* Orlando |
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12-31-18 | Monmouth v. Pennsylvania -14 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
8* Pennsylvania (1:00 ET): Penn suffered a bad loss its last time out, 77-45 at Toledo. But that's nothing compared to the kind of SEASON Monmouth is having. The Hawks are on the verge of a winless 2018, having started 0-12. While a few of the losses have been close, generally speaking, the Hawks have been getting blown out with great regularity. This fall from grace has been quite ugly for the team from New Jersey and I'm not sure there's any immediate end in sight, not until MAAC play starts, at least. With Penn at home and antsy to atone for a bad loss, I see them rolling this afternoon. Lay the points. Monmouth is one of only two teams in the country that is still winless. The other is perennial bottom-feeder Coppin State. To say that it's surprising to find the Hawks this low on the totem pole would be an understatement. They won the MAAC B2B years in 2015-16 and 2016-17 and the upperclassmen have been to the NCAA Tournament before. But after last season's disappointing finish (11-20 SU), the Hawks' best player (Micah Seaborn) decided to declare for the NBA Draft. He wasn't even picked, so it was kind of a lose-lose situation all around. Now there are reports that Monmouth HC King Rice and four reserves are able to beat the starters in scrimmages. The Hawks' confidence is clearly shot right now and I don't see them getting things fixed today. The Toledo team that blew out Penn is no slouch. While you never want to lose by 32, the Rockets are 12-1 SU this year. It was also a road game for Penn where they were underdogs. As a favorite, the team is a perfect 6-0 ATS. They are 5-0 SU at home. Remember, the Quakers upset defending National Champ Villanova earlier this month (I was on 'em!). They also won at New Mexico and upset Miami FL. This despite losing all-conference player Ryan Betley early in the season. This is a good team and with the blowout loss still fresh in its collective mind (happened Saturday), I fully anticipate the Quakers to roll here. They've been undervalued most of the year. A real key here is that Penn is 31st in the country in effective field goal percentage (they shoot 55.6% from the field at home!) and Monmouth is one of the worst defensive teams in the country right now at 329th in effective FG% allowed. 8* Pennsylvania |
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12-30-18 | Towson +8.5 v. William & Mary | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
8* Towson State (4:00 ET): Both of these teams opened Colonial play w/ a win on Friday. Towson went to Elon and beat the Phoenix 77-60 as a one-point favorite. William & Mary was here at home hosting James Madison and won by only five, 79-74, as seven-point chalk. I realize that Towson isn't exactly being picked to finish at the top of the CAA standings this year, but I also believe they are deserving of a bit more respect than they are getting here against a middling William & Mary team. The Tigers beat the Tribe both times in the regular season LY before getting ousted by them in the conference tournament. Take the points. Towson actually did trail Elon by nine early in the second half before storming back and winning comfortably. Over an 11-minute stretch, they outscored the Phoenix 34-8. It was a 53-point second half, led by an 8 for 12 performance from three-point range. Will they shoot that well again? The inclination is to say "no," but William & Mary is also giving up 80 PPG on the season, so the Tigers should score plenty this afternoon. Each of Towson's last four losses have been by six points or less, so they've been competitive. Last year, they came here to Williamsburg and blew out W&M 99-73 (as three-point dogs). In fact, the Tigers hung 90+ on W&M in both regular season matchups LY. It was also not easy for William & Mary their last time out as they erased a double digit deficit in a come from behind effort against James Madison. It was the third third this season that the Tribe won a game in which they trailed by double digits. That hardly sounds like a sustainable blueprint to me. Had they not erased a 20-point deficit against St. Joe's back on 11.24 (won 87-85), then the Tribe would have been 1-8 SU to start the season. They've won three of their last four, but have yet to beat a D-I opponent this year by more than 10 points. Three of their five wins have come by five points or less. 8* Towson State |
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12-30-18 | Appalachian State +12 v. St. Louis | Top | 55-83 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
10* Appalachian State (3:00 ET): The Mountaineers come into St. Louis as pretty heavy underdogs, but I'm not exactly sure why that is. They've been more than competitive in their losses so far this year, save for a neutral court game against a good Purdue team. Other than that, ASU hasn't been beaten by more than 10 pts in any game this season! They've been off for 10 days since a confidence-building win over Milligan, a non-board team they destroyed by a score of 99-60. They're facing an opponent this afternoon that doesn't score much, so points are at premium. That makes taking the points sound like the right move to me. St. Louis is a really good defensive team (22nd in the country in efficiency), but that's about all the Billikens have going for them. They were humiliated their last time out, losing 81-59 at Florida State. That marked a season-high in points allowed They do own a two-point win at Seton Hall earlier in the year, but have dropped every road game since and are just 4-4 SU overall. This isn't a team I'd want to lay double digits with, given they average only 66.7 PPG on the season. Only once in the last six games have they topped that average. Sure enough, the Billikens are just 1-6 ATS as favorites this season, including 0-4 when laying 12 or more points here at home. These teams play at very different tempos. App State comes in averaging 85.4 PPG (13th in the country). While they also give up their fair share, the Mountaineers definitely will be looking to push the pace here in St. Louis. That could very well make the favored Billikens quite uncomfortable, especially coming after a week-long layoff. The Billikens are just 2-9 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days rest. Though 0-7 SU on the road this season, App State is a respectable 3-4 ATS in those games. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 7-0 SU at home, but 2-5 ATS. Two of SLU's top three scorers have been struggling from the field recently while App State leading scorer Shabazz has twice gone for 29 pts in the L3 games. 10* Appalachian State |
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12-29-18 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -3 | Top | 74-76 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): There are only five remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, and of those five, I don't think there's any disputing that St. John's is the weakest team. Really, there's a pretty huge gap that exists between three of the unbeatens (Virginia, Michigan, Nevada) and the other two (Houston, St. John's). Tonight, the Red Storm are underdogs for the very first time this season as it will be just their second "true" road game. They face a Seton Hall team that has had their number in this Big East opener and I look for St. John's to fall for the very 1st time. Lay the points. Seton Hall is no slouch either and this isn't simply a case of being the right team at the right time. The Pirates hold a win over Kentucky this year and will come into tonight riding a five-game win streak. Three of those wins, including the one over UK (84-83), were close (as in decided by six points or less). But the Pirates have also lost a couple tight ones as well. As I stated above, they've certainly had St. John's number in this Big East rivalry, including a season sweep last year. At home, they've won and covered 12 of their previous 14 meetings with the Red Storm. This is a team that just beat Maryland on the road its last time out. St. John's being undefeated is simply a byproduct of the schedule as they have played one of the weakest slates of games in the entire country to this point. KenPom has their schedule rated 344th out of 353 teams in the country. That's why they're unbeaten and not even ranked at this point. Four of the team's first six wins came by four points or less and then the schedule got real soft. They should also be concerned about the fact they just allowed Sacred Hart to shoot 50% in the last game. They were able to overcome that by sinking a school record 17 three-pointers, but fate catches up with them here and Seton Hall will hand them their 1st loss. 10* Seton Hall |
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12-28-18 | Bulls v. Wizards -5.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): This is a matchup of one of the league's worst teams against one of its most disappointing. Neither distinction is ideal, but I'll still take the the team that's been disappointing, yet has some good talent on hand, 9 times out of 10. In the case of the Wizards, they have the league's worst ATS record at 11-23-1 and have failed to cover 9 of their last 10 games (also just 2-8 SU). But they're still a far better side than the Bulls, who have the league's worst point differential (getting outscored by 9.5 PPG). I'll lay the points in this one. Washington opened December a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Since then, they're just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS w/ one of the two SU wins coming in triple overtime against Phoenix. That was also the last time the Wiz played at home. Back to back poor offensive showings cost them in Indiana and Detroit, the latter loss coming Wednesday night. But this team does see a dramatic rise in scoring at home, all the way up to 118.7 PPG, a dramatic increase from what they average on the road (108.2). Washington has actually been a pretty average team when favored this year, it's when they're an underdog that they're getting blown out. This is a rare matchup where they deserve to be favored and should roll. Chicago is predictably bad on the road where its record is just 4-13. They too lost their first game post X-Mas, in their case 119-94 to the Bulls. That loss snapped a rare two-game win streak, the first time all season that they'd won consecutive games. It was also the eighth time in the last nine games that the team failed to score 100 points. The Bulls are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and the gap between them and the second worst team (Atlanta) is actually larger than the gap that exists between Atlanta (#29) and the 22nd team (Cleveland). Zach LaVine is set to return to a starting role tonight, but that's hardly enough for a bad team to get the job done on the road. 10* Washington |
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12-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
10* Wright State (7:00 ET): Looking at the respective seasons of the teams involved here, you might be surprised to see one team as a clear favorite. But the bottom line is Wright State is better than its 6-7 SU record as five of those seven losses have been by 7 pts or fewer. They remain the favorite to win the Horizon League this year. Now that conference play is set to begin, I expect the Raiders to start winning and winning big. The team is 6-1 SU at home (0-6 SU on the road) and here will be facing a UIC team that they've beaten five straight times. Lay the points. Now Wright State may have a small problem on its hands, that being the health (ankle) of Loudon Love, the team's starting center and All-Conference player. But w/o Love, the Raiders were still able to hang tough against #17 Mississippi State last Saturday, only losing 67-63 as 13.5-point underdogs. Starting in place of Love, Parker Ernsthausen had a solid game w/ 11 points, making 3 of 4 three-pointers. Ernsthausen is the team's best three-point shooter at 46.4% from behind the arc. If the Raiders are able to hang w/ a team as good as Miss State w/o Love, then they should have no problem beating UIC if he's unable to go Friday night. Wright State isn't the only Horizon League team that can't win on the road. UIC is 0-6 SU away from home this year, giving up a whopping 87.3 points per game. As a result, they've been beaten by an average of more than 12.3 PPG. Now let's look at how Wright State performs at home. They allow just 63.1 PPG here at the Nutter Center and have outscored opponents by 16.6 PPG. UIC's four wins this year over board teams have all been by six points or fewer, so their record could be a lot worse. Given how well Wright State defends at home and how poorly UIC plays on that end on the road, this should end in a blowout. 10* Wright State |
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12-26-18 | Suns v. Magic -4 | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Suns headed into the X-Mas break playing - easily - their best ball of the season as they're currently riding a six-game ATS win streak. They've also won four of those six games straight up, though they lost the last two. Getting top two scorers - Devin Booker and TJ Warren - both back was the catalyst for the turnaround as the team was getting routinely blown out when both were simultaneously sidelined. This is not a great spot for the team from out West as it's the finale of a 5-game Eastern Conference road trip that overlapped the Holiday. I'm going to lay the short number, even though Orlando has been struggling after its own "unique trip." Two weeks ago, the Magic headed down to Mexico for a couple of games and won them both, beating Utah and Chicago in a couple of low-scoring affairs. But since they returned to the States, things have not gone well w/ three consecutive double-digit losses. The most recent was here at home, 115-91 to Miami, extra critical because it put the Magic 1.5 games behind the Heat for the "coveted" 8th position in the Eastern Conference. Offensively, the team has struggled lately, but I think that'll turn around here as they face the team w/ the 4th lowest defensive efficiency rating in the league. Phoenix isn't very good on the offensive end either, ranking 28th in the league there. At the end of the day, 4-2 SU record the L6 games or not, the Suns are not a good road team and not getting nearly enough points here. They're just 3-15 SU on the road, getting outscoring by 11.5 PPG. When these teams met out in Phoenix last month, Orlando was a four-point favorite and won 99-85. So you can see they're a pretty strong value, by comparison, here at home. That was one of the games the Suns were w/o both Booker and Warren. Still though, I think tonight's line is an overadjustment based on recent form. I look for the Magic to turn it around. 8* Orlando |
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12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:05 ET): The NBA's marquee battle on Christmas features the first meeting between LeBron and the Warriors since the former jumped ship to the Lakers. The LeBron-led Lakers are having a pretty good season thus far as they currently sit tied for 4th in the Western Conference at 19-14 SU. They've played better than .600 ball since an 0-3 SU start, but do enter this game off a loss. I played against them Sunday night vs. Memphis, thinking it was a clear lookahead and sure enough that's what it was as LA was upset by the Grizzlies, 107-99 as 5-pt chalk. The lookahead may be over, but my view is the Lakers are still outclassed here and I'm going to lay the points w/ the Warriors, who are in the rare role of "contrarian" favorite. The three-time NBA Champion Warriors don't seem quite as invincible this season as in year's past, but what's scary for the rest of the West is that they're still tied for first place in the conference. Injuries, more than anything else, have hampered the Dubs. But they're back at full strength for this National TV showdown and I believe eager to show they've still "got it." They too were in a bit of a lookahead Sunday night, hosting the Clippers, and failed to cover in a 129-127 victory. Golden State is now just 1-6 ATS its last seven games, but that's helped to reduce this line. The Warriors are still 15-3 SU at home and averaging 116.5 PPG. The lead the league in offensive efficiency, as per usual. Remember that James has not had much success against Golden State since his Cavaliers pulled off a monumental upset in the 2016 NBA Finals. James' record in his L12 games vs. GSW is 1-11 SU (2-10 ATS) w/ that one SU victory coming down 0-3, at home, in the '17 Finals. You could make the case that he's got a better supporting cast now than he did in Cleveland. But two of the Lakers' big men - JaVale McGee and Tyson Chandler - are questionable for this game due to illness. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant just went for a combined 77 pts against the Clippers and have combined to average 58.2 PPG this year. I would expect a big game here from Klay Thompson (who has been in a mini-shooting slump the L6 games) as well. Be wary of the popular underdog. 8* Golden State |
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12-23-18 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:35 ET): The Lakers have a huge X-Mas Night showdown w/ the Warriors (1st time LeBron faces them this year) to look forward to while Memphis has revenge and will be looking to snap a season-worst five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) here. In other words, the situation totally favors the Grizzlies, who will not be playing on X-Mas and are simply trying to avoid a winless road trip. Despite Memphis recently hitting the skids, I still rate these teams fairly evenly in a crowded Western Conference and will be taking this points in this one. Four of Memphis' five losses have been by eight points or less, the exception coming at Golden State. Friday saw the Grizz lose out in Sacramento, 102-99, despite holding the Kings to just 37.5% shooting. It was a game they led by 13 at the half and by nine going into the 4Q. Though offense has been an issue recently (eight straight games w/o scoring 100 pts), motivation will be not be tonight. Memphis was blown out by the Lakers, at home, earlier this month by a score of 111-88. In terms of margin that was the Grizzlies' second worst defeat of the season. Only the season opener at Indiana topped it. Though we'd obviously like to start seeing Memphis score more, note that their low point totals are often related to the pace at which they play, the slowest in the entire league (in terms of # of possessions per game). Defensively, there are no issues as they've held virtually every opponent under its season average in PPG this year. They are top five in defensive efficiency and #1 in the Western Conf in points allowed. The Lakers are generally not that sound defensively and are in a massive lookahead against a highly motivated underdog. All signs point to a Grizzlies' cover here. 8* Memphis |
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12-23-18 | Bulls v. Cavs -1 | Top | 112-92 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): These two teams will enter Sunday tied for having the worst SU record in the league (8-25 SU). That hardly makes this an attractive matchup on paper, but I see no reason why Cleveland wouldn't be favored at home here, at least by by the "token" three points. There's no reason to believe the Bulls are any better, let alone definitively enough where they'd be close to a pick 'em on the road. The Bulls did win Friday, 90-80 over Orlando, but are just 1-5 ATS/0-6 SU this year when off a SU win as a dog. In fact, they haven't won B2B games all season. Cleveland got off to a very ugly 2-14 SU start after LeBron James left them "high and dry" for a second time. Truthfully, things haven't gotten a ton better over the L17 games, but they're a more respectable 6-11 SU during that span. They've beaten some good teams too; like Indiana on Tuesday. Tonight is the Cavs' return home after a difficult three-game trek, which also saw them have to stop in Milwaukee and Toronto. Playing the Pacers, Bucks and Raptors, all on the road in a four-night span, is about as tough a trip as their is in the Eastern Conference right now. Predictably, both of these teams are better at home than on the road. That's yet another reason I have Cleveland favored here. In addition to matching overall SU records, these teams have the same records at home (5-12 SU) and on the road (3-13 SU). The Bulls are being outscored by 11.4 PPG as the road team this year. They're also being outscored by a whopping 22.4 PPG off a win. Cleveland has revenge here for a one-point loss in the Windy City (as 4.5-pt dogs) last month. While Chicago has a hot Lauri Markkanen, they are still short-handed w/ both Bobby Portis and Zach LaVine out again. 10* Cleveland |
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12-22-18 | William & Mary v. Virginia -21.5 | Top | 40-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
8* Virginia (2:00 ET): Two more teams (Buffalo, Furman) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last night, leaving just six left in the country. Counted among them is #5 Virginia, a team that has won 41 of its last 44 games overall. While it it going to take a LONG time to wash away the stench of that historic loss in LY's NCAA Tournament (first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16), the bottom line is that Tony Bennett's Cavaliers remain one of the premier teams in the country. William & Mary won't be any match for them this afternoon in Charlottesville. Lay the points. So far, the Hoos are 10-0 and outscoring teams by 21.1 PPG. That average margin of victory is basically what we're looking for here and we should get it (and then some) due to the combination of Virginia's own defense and W&M's lack of it. The Hoos are #1 in the country in scoring defense (as per usual), giving up just 51.3 points per game. They're even stingier here at home where they are allowing only 46.6 PPG! The only team to crack 60 against them so far was Maryland and that was a "true" road game. Four of their five visitors have not scored 50. William & Mary can score. They come in averaging 77.3 PPG. But that's also skewed due to games against lesser competition, like their last one against William Peace College where they scored 106. Note that the Tribe has faced one top 20 defense in efficiency this year (Old Dominion) and was held to 53 points on the road. This is very likely to be worse. Then you have the fact that William & Mary comes in allowing 81.3 PPG. So in addition to their usual brand of defense, UVA should score plenty Saturday afternoon, giving this the potential to be one of the bigger blowouts on today's card. 8* Virginia |
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12-22-18 | Temple v. Drexel +10.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
8* Drexel (1:00 ET): This battle of Philly schools may not be as lopsided as it appears. Temple, while 9-2 SU, has won a LOT of close games so far. Already, they have four wins by four points or less. Only three of their nine wins have come by a margin greater than eight points. While it's nice to have such wins "in the bag," it's also not sustainable and doesn't make for being a great favorite. Sure enough, the Owls are 1-6 ATS as chalk this season. Coming off B2B two-point victories (over UMass and Davidson), I see Temple as being ripe for an upset. Take the points here. Admittedly, Drexel has a couple bad losses this year (NJ Tech, MD-Baltimore County). They were also just blown out by 32 at UConn earlier in the week. But getting this game at home is going to be a big motivating factor for the Dragons, who also come in w/ revenge for a three-point loss to Temple last year. They easily covered the 16-point spot there as neither team shot the ball well. One thing that makes this Drexel team attractive as an underdog in they can score. They average more than 80 PPG on the season while shooting 39.2% from three-point range. That'll go a long way in keeping this one close. Now they did shoot only 3 of 16 from behind the arc against UConn. But remember that was on the road. The Dragons had scored at least 76 points in each of their four games previous to the loss to UConn. Unlike the Huskies, Temple really does not have the kind of elite offense that can blow teams out w/ regularity. The Owls needed OT to get by Davidson last Saturday, scoring the GW basket on a lucky turnover. That came on the heels of rallying back from being down 10 at the half to UMass. Really, the Owls should feel fortunate to have that 9-2 SU record as three of their last four wins have come by exactly two points. The underdog will keep this closer than expected. 8* Drexel |
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12-21-18 | Buffalo v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 85-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Marquette (8:30 ET): I admit Buffalo got me earlier in the week (winning at Syracuse), but this is a pretty brutal spot for the still-undefeated Bulls, who are playing as a short road underdog for a second straight time. With Texas Tech losing last night (to Duke), only eight teams remain unbeaten in College Basketball. Sooner than later, all will fall at least once and for Buffalo, tonight is that time. Marquette is a stronger team than Syracuse, despite the oddsmakers suggesting otherwise, and they're a perfect 8-0 SU here at home. Lay the short number here as Buffalo takes its first loss of the year. Buffalo is a nice story, but I'll continue to maintain that they are nowhere even close to being a top 15 team in the country, which is where the pollsters have them. Now, this is an experienced group that did win a NCAA Tournament game (upset Arizona) last March. Nate Oats' team is expected to repeat as MAC Champions, but the Bulls have clearly surpassed expectations so far w/ a 7-1 ATS mark. I concede that they do own impressive road wins over West Virginia and Syracuse. But this four-game road trip that they're on (takes them through the New Year) figures to provide them their first loss as this is pretty clearly the most challenging spot of the three remaining games. Marquette has won six straight, a streak which includes wins over Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin. They too are in the Top 25 (currently 20th) following a 26-point over North Dakota their last time out, a blowout win which came in spite of 22 turnovers. The Golden Eagles only losses this year came at Indiana and to Kansas at a neutral setting. Their eight home wins have come by an average of 18.5 PPG (opponents shooting just 36.0%). Eventually, Buffalo has to lose and this figures to be the last time they are an underdog for awhile. 10* Marquette |
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12-21-18 | Coastal Carolina +11.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Charleston comes into this game pretty red hot, as winners of seven straight. They are 10-2 SU overall, but I don't see them being worthy of this price range against this opponent tonight. Coastal Carolina might only be 6-5 SU, but they've taken only one DD loss on the year and it was by 11 to a Wofford team that is substantially better than Charleston. Other than that, the Chanticleers' other four losses have all been by six points or less. I look for them to take the favored Cougars down to the wire in this one, which should be tight from start to finish. This is also a revenge game for Coastal Carolina as they lost by two to Charleston at home last year. It was a dreadful shooting night for the Chanticleers last year, particularly from three-point range where they went 1 for 16. This year's edition is a pretty strong shooting team (46.7% overall) and especially from behind the three-point arc where they are nearly 39% for the season. So Charleston won't be able to count on the same poor shooting tonight. Coastal Carolina is off a nice 69-65 win over NC Central on Sunday (led by as many as 14) and has played plenty of "true" road games so far. In other words, they'll be ready for this one. College of Charleston is nowhere near the three-point shooting team that Coastal Carolina is, so that's a big edge for the underdog right there. In fact, Charleston is shooting below 30% from behind the arc at home this year. Coming off B2B road wins, one of them an upset of Virginia Commowealth, I think this sets up as a letdown game for the favorite tonight. The Cougars are coming off a commanding 83-58 win over Siena their last time out (where they shot 61.5% overall!), a performance they won't soon be repeating. Overall, the Cougars' recent shooting simply is not sustainable. Coastal Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog so far this year while Charleston is just 1-3 ATS at home. 8* Coastal Carolina |
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12-19-18 | Arkansas-Little Rock +15 v. Memphis | Top | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Ark-Little Rock (8:00 ET): Memphis is no longer the power that it once was under John Calipari. Really, it was a pretty fast decline under Coach Cal's understudy Josh Pastner, who would bolt for Georgia Tech. Tubby Smith replaced him an did a terrible job for two years. Famous alum Penny Hardaway is now in his first season at the helm and the Tigers are 5-5 SU, coming off an emotional loss to in-state rival Tennessee where they scored 92 points at home and still didn't even cover the spread. I believe they are "ripe for the picking" tonight and laying far too many points. Little Rock had a far easier time in its last games as they played Miles College and won easily, 67-47. That kind of opponent was a welcome sight for the Trojans, who had just experienced two back-breaking losses in a row. They blew a halftime lead at home to Bradley at home, then lost on a half-court heave to Central Arkansas, also at home. (That was actually their 2nd loss to Central Arkansas in two weeks). While the road has generally been unkind to Little Rock, they did cover here in Memphis last year in a similar price range, losing by only eight points. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings w/ the Tigers. Memphis is not good defensively and their struggles extend way beyond giving up 102 pts to Tennessee on Saturday. They're allowing over 80 PPG on the season. The only two teams not to score at least 76 against them were Tennessee Tech and Canisius. Obviously when you are giving up that many points, it's pretty difficult to cover as double digit favorites. Speaking of that, the Tigers have not been DD favorites since the season opener, when they played Tennessee Tech, and they failed to cover in that spot. While Memphis played Saturday, Little Rock has been off for eight days, giving them a bit of an edge there. The Tigers' tempo, which often leads to them not getting the best shot offensively, will be their undoing here. 8* Ark Little Rock |
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12-19-18 | Suns v. Celtics -11.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): While these teams definitely reside at opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, recent results have the favorite undervalued coming into this one. For the first time in more than a year, Phoenix comes in on a three-game win streak. They've beaten the Mavs, T'wolves and Knicks, the former two at home. They got the Knicks playing in the second half of a back to back. Here, it's a Boston team coming off a surprise loss in Detroit on Saturday. But before that, the Celtics had won and covered eight straight games. It's a big number tonight, but lay it. While the number is big, consider that the Celtics were 10-point favorites in Phoenix a little over a month ago. Now they didn't cover mind you, but they also shot just 40.2% on the road and still won by seven. They actually trailed the Suns by as many as 22 before rallying back and taking the game in overtime. Boston then made a hard-charge up my own personal power rankings w/ a series of blowout wins during the 8-0 SU/ATS streak. Five times they won by double digits. Most of the teams they blew out had losing records. No one has a worse record in the Western Conference than Phoenix, who is 7-22 SU for the season. The Suns do have their top two scorers back, Devin Booker and TJ Warren. Their absences were the reason the team hit the skids in late November, at one point losing 10 straight games. The team also just made a trade, shipping Trevor Ariza off and getting Kelly Oubre Jr in return. I don't think that will make much difference. Monday's win over the Knicks marked just the second time all year that Phoenix prevailed in a road game. Boston is outscoring teams by 11 PPG here at home. A giant gap exists between these two teams when it comes to defensive efficiency as the Celtics rank third in the league while the Suns are 27th. This should end up being a pretty sizable blowout. 8* Boston |
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12-19-18 | Old Dominion v. Richmond +5.5 | Top | 63-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* Richmond (7:00 ET): This is a total letdown spot for Old Dominion, who comes in off an upset of Syracuse at the Carrier Dome this past weekend. The Monarchs were able to rally from a double digit deficit to win by six, outscoring the Orange by 16 in the 2H. ODU is definitely a hot team right now as they've won six straight (5-1 ATS) and they can certainly play some defense (top 20 in defensive efficiency). But I'm not sure I see them going on the road for a second time in five days and coming away w/ a "W." It's their first time playing B2B road games this year and they're favored in this one. Take the points. While it will be difficult for ODU to match its intensity from the last game, Richmond is likely be very motivated tonight, playing at home. First off, they are in off an embarrassing loss from over the weekend as they fell 59-52 here at home to Oral Roberts as 11-pt favorites. In the loss, the Spiders shot below 30% from the field. This after shooting 50% or better in three consecutive games. Adding to the Spiders' motivation here is the fact they have legit revenge from a 19-point loss to ODU last year down in Norfolk. They didn't shoot the ball particularly well there either. It should be a different story tonight. It was a season-low in pts scored (52) for Richmond on Saturday. This is a team that averages 72.2 PPG on 47.8% shooting. This does figure to be a pretty low-scoring game, but that favors the underdog. Old Dominion is just 1-6 ATS its last seven time as a road fave of 6.5 to 9 points. They are shooting just 41% for the year and are below 40% away from home while averaging just 61.2 PPG. Meanwhile, Richmond is 6-1 ATS as a home dog in that 6.5 to 9 point range. This is just a bad spot for ODU, especially to be laying points. 10* Richmond |
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12-18-18 | Mavs v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 118-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Nuggets were lauded as one of the deepest teams in the league. We're seeing that depth currently pay off. Despite being w/o three Opneing Night starters right now (Will Barton, Paul Milsap and Gary Harris), the team continues to win and has the best win percentage in the Western Conference (.690). They are 10-2 SU and ATS the L12 games, including B2B impressive wins over OKC and Toronto here at home. Tonight, they look to close out a four-game homestand w/ a perfect record as Dallas comes calling. Denver isn't laying nearly enough here. I thought the Mavs might improve this season and they have. But the improvement has been even more pronounced than expected (team's record is 15-13 SU) and a lot of that is owed to rookie Luka Doncic. However, Dallas has dropped B2B games and clearly isn't the same team on the road. While they sport a 12-3 SU home record, they're just 2-10 SU away from American Airlines Center. Their most recent road loss came last Thursday ... at Phoenix (scored only 89 pts). Their home record also took a hit over the weekend w/ a loss to Sacramento. The Mavs aren't exactly at full strength here either as they could be w/o two guards, Dennis Smith Jr and J.J. Barea. As has already been well-established, this team simply isn't very good on the road (outscored by 7.5 PPG) and the Pepsi Center here in Denver is one of the more challenging venues in the league for opposing teams. The Nuggets have some major revenge to exact on the Mavs when it comes to the pointspread as they were 0-4 ATS against them last season (did win both home games SU). Denver is 12-3 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by double digits. 10* Denver |
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12-18-18 | Buffalo v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): Entering Tuesday, there are still nine unbeatens left in College Basketball. Eight of them are ranked (St. John's being the exception), but only five truly deserve to be. Those five would be: Virginia, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada & Texas Tech, all of whom I believe are top 10 teams in the country. Another unbeaten is Furman, who did beat Villanova, but should still be considered well below all the other remaining unbeatens. That leaves us two more to hit on, Houston and Buffalo, both of whom are in the Top 25, but don't deserve to be. We've got a chance to play against Buffalo here, on the road against a "name" program, at an extraordinary price. I'm laying the points here. Syracuse dropped from the Top 25 due to a loss to another strong mid-major (Old Dominion) on Saturday. The Orange were nine-point favorites and lost to the Monarchs 68-62 as they shot a woeful 33.3% from the floor. Losing to ODU here at the Carrier Dome is clearly "something that shouldn't happen," but it did and not to make excuses, but there is an important caveat. Like Syracuse, ODU ranks pretty high nationally in defensive efficiency. In fact, the Monarchs are top 20 in that category. Syracuse, who is #16 in the country in defensive efficiency itself, won't have to worry about that same kind of suffocating opponent here as Buffalo ranks 54th in def efficiency. Among the unbeatens, only St. John's and Furman are lower. Buffalo is a tremendous story at 10-0 and ranked #14 in the country. But there is simply no way that Nate Oats' team is one of the 15 best in the country. Their "best" wins came at West Virginia and on a neutral court vs. San Francisco. Both were narrow victories (by 5 pts or less) and neither opponent is as good as Syracuse. Note Syracuse led ODU by double digits on Saturday before a poor second half. Also note that Buffalo really struggled against a zone defense vs. Southern Illinois Saturday. The SIU zone caused Buffalo to lose a 19-pt lead. We know what kind of defense Syracuse plays (Hint: it's a 2-3 zone) and they've beaten Buffalo 18 straight times dating back to 1963. 8* Syracuse |
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12-17-18 | Grizzlies +12 v. Warriors | Top | 93-110 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
8* Memphis (10:35 ET): Unlike the other two games in this package, I don't believe the underdog is the better team here, nor do I give them a great shot at pulling off an outright upset. However, the Grizzlies are getting way too many points here against Golden State, who has simply NOT been the same dominant team as they've been the last four seasons. On Friday night, the Warriors found themselves down in the fourth quarter at Sacramento before going on a 17-2 run to win the game by five points. Even on the road, the Grizzlies are worthy of more respect than what they're getting from the oddsmakers here. Take the points. One thing worth being concerned about here is that Memphis has been held under 100 pts for five consecutive games as well as seven of their last eight. That's almost unheard of in today's NBA. You just don't see too many teams scoring only 94.6 PPG over a five-game stretch anymore. But what we don't have to concern ourselves with here is the Grizzlies defense. They lead the Western Conference in points allowed (102.1 PPG) and have held 26 of their 29 opponents below their season scoring average. As for the offense, look for a bounce back tonight as Golden State has slipped tremendously on defense and gives up 111.1 PPG. Like most teams, the Grizzlies have struggled the past few years against the Warriors. They've lost 13 of the last 17 meetings, including a 117-101 loss here in Oakland last month. Golden State shot well in that game, but that may not be the case again here. They were 14-pt favorites in that last meeting and did cover, but needed a huge 34-15 third quarter advantage to do so. Memphis is due to start shooting the ball better and is good enough defensively to hang within the number here. 8* Memphis |
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12-17-18 | Kings +8 v. Wolves | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings continue to be a surprise team as they won last night in Dallas, 120-113. That victory was no small feat. The Mavs had won their previous 11 home games. Sacramento is now three games above .500, something that no one foresaw for this point in the season. While tonight is the second game of a back to back, the oddsmakers sure are being generous considering the Kings just beat the T'wolves 141-130 last week. Dave Joeger's team has covered seven of its last eight games overall and is a very respectable 9-7 SU on the road. Take the points. The T'wolves are coming off an 0-4 road trip that included that aforementioned stop in Sacramento. The road has been unkind to this team so far as they're 2-12 SU this season. It's been a different story at home though where they have gone 11-4 SU. However, rarely is Minnesota this large of a favorite. They were 7.5-pt favorites on the road to Phoenix Sat night and lost that game outright. They were also three point favorites last week at Sacramento where they allowed 141 pts in regulation. I don't think a simple switch in venue is enough to overcome the swing in point differential that the oddsmakers seem to be calling for here. Minnesota has had lay eight or more at home two times previous to this and ended up 1-1 ATS. But those games came against Chicago and Cleveland. In its last three games, Sacramento has scored 141, 125 and 120 points. They are 4th in the league in points per game. On Friday, they led the Warriors by 10 points in the fourth quarter before succumbing to a better team. I'm not sure Minnesota is a better team that Sacramento as the T'wolves definitely have their issues defensively. They just allowed an average of nearly 120 PPG on the 0-4 road trip w/ opponents shooting 40% from three-point range. These teams are dead even in defensive efficiency rating, but the Kings are significantly higher on offense. 8* Sacramento |
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12-17-18 | Jazz +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:05 ET): Here's yet another game where I believe the road dog is the better team overall and not getting the proper amount of respect from the oddsmakers. We've all been waiting on Houston to "get it going" and while lately there have been signs that is taking place, I'm still not convinced that they're significantly better than Utah, even playing at home. The Jazz are another team off to a disappointing start as - like Houston - they currently sit outside the top eight in the Western Conference. The Jazz have also already beaten the Rockets - twice - this season. Take the points. Now Utah does come into tonight having dropped three of four, including a stop in Mexico City where they fell as six-point favorites to Orlando, by a score of 96-89. Houston, meanwhile, has won and covered three straight. But the Jazz were one-point favorites for each of the first two meetings w/ the Rockets, one of them here in H-town. Now the Rockets played that home game w/o the services of Chris Paul (was suspended) and James Harden left w/ an injury in the 4Q. But there was no such "excuse" when they lost out in Utah earlier this month as they were at full strength. In fact, Utah was w/o one of its top players, Rudy Gobert, who was ejected early in the convincing 118-91 victory. In the two wins this year, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 90 points. They haven't been that prolific otherwise this season, but the defensive numbers should improve considering this team was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency last season. Houston continues to rely too much on Harden, who has had triple doubles in each of the last two games. In my eyes, this is a pretty even matchup w/ the Jazz being the slightly better team. The homecourt edge is being overvalued as the Rockets are just 7-5 SU here this season. 8* Utah |
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12-17-18 | Suns v. Knicks -1 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): For the first time in over a year, the Phoenix Suns have won B2B games. Both wins came at home. The first was against a Minnesota team that isn't very good on the road. Then they beat another team w/ a drastic home vs. road split, that being Dallas, on Saturday night. The Suns now have TJ Warren and Devin Booker back in the lineup. Their absences certainly played a role in the team losing 10 straight games from 11/25 to 12/11. But just because both are back doesn't mean the Suns should be getting this much respect on the road. I know the Knicks are banged up, but Phoenix is a league-worst 1-13 SU on the road and last produced a three-game win streak back in March of 2017. Lay the short number here. New York did play last night. They lost 110-99 to Indiana, a game where I played the Over. The Over wasn't a winning bet as the Knicks shot just 41.6% from the field. But it was a close game most of the way and still tied 81-81 w/ just under nine minutes remaining. It was down the stretch where the Knicks wilted. Though short-handed and only 2-8 SU the L10 games, this is one of the few matchups tailor-made for NY to win. They've played only 13 of their 31 games at home, so they should be happy to be back at MSG tonight. Again, Phoenix is only 1-13 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 16 PPG. The Suns may be a little short-handed here as well. They finally were able to trade Trevor Ariza (following a comedy of errors) in a three-team deal that netted them Kelly Oubre Jr and Austin Rivers. But there's a good chance neither will play tonight. Even if one or both did, I wouldn't expect very much in the first game w/ a whole new set of teammates. I just think that the Suns being listed as a near pick 'em is pretty unfathomable, especially when you consider they're only 3-11 ATS on the road. After playing three consecutive road games, the Knicks are 2-0 ATS this year. 10* New York |
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12-15-18 | LSU v. St. Mary's +3 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
10* St. Mary's (11:00 PM ET): In addition to the wrong team being favored here, this is a horrendous spot for LSU to fly out to Vegas and play a red hot team. You may recall that earlier in the week I was on the Tigers as they went to Houston. They were underdogs against an unbeaten team and I took the points, giving them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. For most of the game, they looked to be the better team, building a lead as high as 15 early in the 2nd half. They still had a double digit lead w/ just under 15 mins to go. But that's when the wheels fell off and they ended up losing by six (covered by 1/2 pt). I don't like LSU at all in this quick turnaround. Especially when they're laying points to such a hot team. St. Mary's has won and covered four straight and should be the betting favorite here. All four wins have been by double digits, though against competition far weaker than what they'll see here. It's been a nice turnaround for the Gaels after losing four in a row, which I think is still weighing on the oddsmakers' minds here. Tuesday vs. CS-Fullerton, they led by 19 at halftime and never looked back. Jordan Ford scored all 19 of his pts in the 1st half and three other starters would join him in double figures. The Gaels shoot the ball very well (49.7 FG%) and that's going to mean trouble for a LSU side that really doesn't, especially away from Baton Rouge. The Tigers have won just 1 of 4 away from campus so far, including an outright loss as favorite to Oklahoma State last month. Three-point shooting, as if often is, may prove key in this contest. St. Mary's is shooting 39.1% from behind the arc so far this season. They are allowing just 29.6% shooting. With the way LSU struggles to shoot away from home, I wouldn't be too confident in them being able to "keep up" in this late night showdown. 10* St. Mary's |
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12-15-18 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston may have some again believing that a turnaround is forthcoming and Memphis is the second night of a back to back. But I feel the Grizzlies are still an outstanding value tonight as a home dog. Last night's 100-97 loss to Miami aside, the Grizz have been one of the league's top defensive teams this year. They've held 25 of 28 opponents below their season average in scoring and are second overall in points allowed. The Rockets aren't the same explosive team on offense that they were a season ago. Therefore, I'll take the points here. Memphis found itself slightly behind for most of the way last night against Miami. They simply did not shoot the ball very well, especially from three-point range where they were only 8 of 29. However, I suspect a nice bounce-back takes place tonight. The Grizzlies have shockingly been held under 100 pts in six of their last seven games, which you don't really see in this league anymore. But they shoot the ball well at home (46.5 FG%) where they are 9-5 SU and ATS. Houston is just 9-12 ATS as a favorite (10 outright losses) and 5-10 ATS on the road. They've lost six of their last seven road games straight up, even though James Harden has gone for 33 or more points four times in that stretch. Although these teams are division foes, it's been more than a year since they actually faced off. Memphis earned a season split LY, taking the first two matchups, which was before they fell apart (due to injuries) and Houston really took off. I mentioned earlier that Houston is not the same team offensively this year and they're down to 106.6 PPG on the road. If Memphis can hold them below their season average, which history suggests that they will, then I sense a very easy cover here. The Rockets have still allowed more points than they've scored this year, making them one of just five teams in the Western Conference that can say that. 10* Memphis |
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12-15-18 | Penn State v. NC State -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
8* NC State (2:00 ET): Every week, when the new NCAAB rankings come out, I like to compare them to my own personal top 25. There's not as much discrepancy as you might think, but there's a always at least a couple teams not ranked by the pollsters that I think deserve to be. One such team is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have started 8-1 this year, the only loss coming at Wisconsin (by just 4 pts) in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Other than that, the competition hasn't exactly been fierce, but it's worth noting that NC State is outscoring teams by 26.9 PPG this year! This is a neutral site game w/ Penn State, another Big 10 team. The Wolfpack are obviously hoping for a better result than what they got in Madison. They should. Last year in Raleigh, they beat the Nittany Lions 85-78 as a three-point home dog. Both teams are better this season. Penn State is actually top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency right now (per KenPom), but really struggles shooting the ball sometimes. Not in the last game, mind you, when Rasir Bolton's career-high 27 pts led a 76-65 win over Colgate. The team shot 10 of 27 from three-point range as well. But the issue is that the Nittany Lions have shot just 40.7% from the field outside of Happy Valley this year, including a dreadful 29.5% from three-point range. NC State is 6th in the country in scoring and 14th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they're not too shabby either, ranking 21st in points allowed. Again, I recognize they haven't taken on the toughest non-conference schedule, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a very good basketball team. They've scored 180 pts the L2 games and are 7-2 ATS overall. The only two times they failed to cover were as big favorites. The Wolfpack shoot the ball very well; better than 50% overall and better than 40% from three-point range. That's too much for Penn State to keep up with, so lay the short number. 8* NC State |
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12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): In an ultra-deep Western Conference, no one thought the Kings would be able to do much. Virtually all projections before the season had them and the Suns as the bottom two. But here we are in mid-December and they're right in the mix! Back to back wins have them at 15-12 SU and in eighth place in the Confererence. At the same time, Golden State no longer is the infalliable team of the last four years. They're still tied for first, but have already lost 10 times. This line is still based on preseason projections and not where each team is currently at. Take the points. Facing a Toronto team that was w/o Kwahi Leonard, the Warriors got embarrassed Wednesday night - at home - losing 113-93. I suspect this line is based on the expectation that it will be an angry Golden State team taking the floor tonight, looking to exact some revenge. But even w/ the team healthier than its been, I don't see it. They escaped w/ a one-point win over the Kings last month. Granted, there was no Steph Curry or Draymond Green. But Kevin Durant did go for 44 points in the game and the Dubs probably won't be getting that kind of individual performance tonight. Sacramento is 5-1 SU and ATS in December. Admittedly, that includes wins over Phoenix, Cleveland and Chicago, three of the four worst teams in the league. But they also just dropped 141 pts in regulation in their last game, shooting almost 59%, in a double digit win over Minnesota. The Kings are now 7-5 SU at home this year and 8-4 ATS as they've been a dog in every game. Yes, I'm with you in that this team is going to eventually fall off (won't make the playoffs). But they are better than they've been the last couple seasons and no longer a team that's going to get blown out regularly. 8* Sacramento |
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12-14-18 | Green Bay +18.5 v. Creighton | Top | 65-86 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (9:00 ET): WI-Green Bay has been a covering machine this year. An underdog in all but one lined game, the Phoenix are 6-2 ATS on the year, 6-1 when in the underdog role. They've stepped up in class a couple times, playing the likes of Iowa and Oregon on the road, so they certainly shouldn't be intimidated by tonight's visit to Creighton. Outside of an ugly loss at Bowling Green last week, there's nothing to indicate the Phoenix can't hang w/ the heavily favored Blue Jays here. They average 87.2 PPG (13th in the country), so take the double digit spread. Creighton also isn't shy about scoring as they are averaging 83.6 PPG. But they do come in off B2B losses. Now those losses came against Gonzaga and Nebraska, two very good teams, one of them top five in the country. But w/ another more "high-profile" game (at Oklahoma) looming next week, I think it will be easy for the Blue Jays to overlook tonight's game, which is obviously dangerous when laying double digits. Creighton has not covered either time it was a DD favorite this year, winning those games by only 11 and 6 points and they were playing Western Illinois and East Tennessee State. Green Bay plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country (9th in possessions per game) and have scored 100+ pts in two of their last three games. Yes, one of those games was against a non-DI school, but the other came on the road against Belmont, a game where they were 7-pt underdogs. As for the oddsmakers, they are giving Creighton basically the same level of respect they gave Iowa and Oregon against the Phoenix. I don't think that's right. Creighton is highly suspect defensively as it ranks 301st in points allowed & is 128th in efficiency. They were just shredded by Nebraska for 94 pts after giving up 103 to Gonzaga. Giving up a lot of points here will obviously make it difficult to cover such a large spread. 10* Green Bay |
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12-13-18 | Bulls v. Magic -4.5 | Top | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
8* Orlando (9:35 ET): In the writeup for the total, I didn't talk much about the fact this game is being played in Mexico City. While I think it's going to adversely affect both teams on the defensive end, look for the Magic to be less affected and ultimately pull out an easy win. Chicago is a complete mess right now w/ the Boylen situation and players threatening to boycott practice. Overall, the Bulls have dropped 13 of their last 15 games w/ one of the wins coming at home over Phoenix. This is easily one of the worst teams in the league and it's either them and it's hard to fathom taking them getting such a short number. I'll lay the points. Orlando has lost its last three games, the last two in blowout fashion. The streak began w/ a tough loss in overtime to Denver, at home. Maybe getting away to Mexico City is what this young team needed. As mentioned in the writeup on the total, the Magic weren't at full strength for the Dallas game and they shot the ball terribly. But, save for Jonathan Simmons, they're back to a full compliment of players here and should shoot the ball a lot better. Despite the three-game losing streak, the Magic are still in 8th place in the East. If they want to be a playoff team, then they need to win games like this. For the year, the Magic are 12-6 ATS vs. teams allowing at least 106 PPG. 8* Orlando |
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12-12-18 | LSU +6 v. Houston | Top | 76-82 | Push | 0 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
8* LSU (9:00 ET): Nine teams are still unbeaten in College Basketball and you can predictably find most of them in the latest Top 25 poll. Even a schools as small as Furman finds itself at #23 in the AP due to the "0" in the loss column. But, make no mistake about it, not all of these unbeatens SHOULD be in the Top 25. Take Houston, for example. The Cougars are 8-0 SU, but I don't believe they're one of the 25 best teams in the country. LSU has been a real "problem opponent" for them the L2 years and I would not be surprised to see the Tigers end UH's unbeaten run for a second time in the last three seasons. Take the points. Each of the last two years have seen Houston go down to Baton Rouge and suffer an outright loss to LSU as favorites. Two years ago, the Cougars were 5-0 SU and laying 4.5 points. They lost 84-65. Last season, they were 8-2 SU and 2.5-pt favorites as they paid a visit. They lost 80-77. This time, they're hoping the "third time is the charm" at home. Houston does have a few nice wins this year. They beat Oregon here at home, plus they went to BYU and Oklahoma State and prevailed. That OK State win came over the weekend as they held the Pokes to 35.1% shooting in a 63-53 win. They shot 12 of 34 from three-point range themselves. LSU is playing its first "true" road game here. They lost - by 13 - to Oklahoma State on a neutral floor. So between that, UH being at home and still unbeaten, it's easy to see why LSU is the underdog here. But the Bayou Bengals have four players averaging double figures and leading rebounder Emmitt Williams is expected back tonight after he missed the 91-50 beatdown of Incarnate Word on Sunday. This team is averaging an impressive 82.1 PPG on 49.7% shooting. So they're very attractive in the underdog role, which they're in for only the second time this year. They covered the first - as 3.5-pt dogs - vs. Florida State. 8* LSU |
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12-12-18 | Portland State +17 v. BYU | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
8* Portland State (9:00 ET): Portland State just got done beating Portland Bible College (really!) and Portland U. I suppose they ran out of teams within the city limits to beat so they'll venture to Provo Wednesday to meet a BYU team that has been taking care of business in its own state. The Cougars hold wins over both Utah State and Utah in the last week, a nice recovery from a three-game slide. It was a really nice win Saturday over the rival Utes, but I look at this matchup as a letdown spot for BYU. It certainly isn't a great situation to be laying this many points. I'll admit that Portland State's numbers are a bit skewed due to three huge wins over non-board teams. They beat Portland Bible College 123-40, outscoring them 65-18 in the 1st half. Last Thursday's game vs. Portland was obviously a much bigger test and it was one that the Vikings passed w/ "flying colors." They led the Pilots by as many as 19 in the 2H and improved to 4-0 SU at home. This will be just their second "true" road game of the season, the first being a 12-point loss at Stanford. The Vikings have covered 15 of their last 20 non-conference games. Two of BYU's four losses have come against teams that are still unbeaten, Nevada & Houston. But they've also lost to Illinois State and Weber State, games in which they were favored to win. They gave up 92 and 113 points respectively in those two losses. One did go to overtime, but it's not the one you think as the Cougars really did give up 113 pts in regulation to Weber State. They lost despite shooting 59.4% from the floor as they gave up 66 2nd half points. That's not necessarily indicative of how BYU plays defense; they just held Utah to 59 pts, for example. But I look for them to give up enough tonight that it costs them the cover. 8* Portland State |
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12-12-18 | Knicks v. Cavs +2 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the second time in eight years, the Cavs are having a really tough time in a post-LeBron world. Things aren't quite as bad now as they got in 2010, but still. The team's record is 6-21 SU and they are definitely one of the four worst (but not THE worst) teams in the league right now. Injuries have played a role w/ Kevin Love missing a ton of time and now Tristan Thompson, the other frontcourt stalwart from the four Finals teams, may miss up to a month as well. But despite all that, I still believe Cleveland deserves to be a slight favorite on its home court vs. a New York team I'd also rank in my bottom five. The Knicks have many of the same issues the Cavs do and have lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Take the points here. New York has lost six of seven overall, the one win coming in overtime against Milwaukee of all opponents. This is a team that does very little well and the good news here for Cleveland is that the Knicks are one of the few teams as defensively inept as they are. Cleveland is 30th (i.e. last) in defensive efficiency. But the Knicks are 28th and have given up an average of 120.6 points the L5 games. This obviously has the potential to be a really high-scoring game and I simply wouldn't trust NY as a road favorite, a role which they've been in only one other time all year (at Atlanta). The Knicks are just 4-11 SU in all road games, losing by an average of nearly 10 PPG. Four of the Cavs' six wins this year have come here at home. They won here at the Quicken Loans Arena on Saturday, beating another bad team (the Wizards) 116-101 as 7.5-pt dog. Rookie Collin Sexton had a career-best 29 pts in that game, but unfortunately followed it up w/ a bad shooting night against Milwaukee, a game the Cavs lost 108-92. Expect Sexton and the Cavs to shoot a whole lot better tonight and there's no reason to believe they can't beat the Knicks (who are also w/o their best player, Kristaps Porzingis) at home. 10* Cleveland |
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12-12-18 | Columbia +15.5 v. Boston College | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Columbia got off to a terrible start to the year, losing six of its first seven games. But the Lions have kept a busy schedule here in December and won their last two games, the most recent one being a minor upset of Iona at MSG on Sunday. Now they're set to play a string of road games that will take them through the New Year. Up first is a venture to Chesnut Hill to face Boston College. B.C. has certainly had a tumultuous last week or so. It began w/ an overtime loss, 100-95, to Providence last Tuesday. Then, last weekend's game vs. Texas A&M was cancelled due to mechanical issues w/ the Eagles' plane. Now they have to lay a big number. It's not a good spot and I'll be taking the points in this matchup. While B.C. is 6-2 SU, they've hardly taken on a challenging schedule. In fact, they've yet to even play a "true" road game. Their "best" win came in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge over Minnesota. However, they've hardly been blowing teams out. Since opening the season w/ a 20-pt win over Milwaukee, they've yet to win another game by more than 15 pts. That's key considering the number here. And an outright loss wouldn't be unprecedented considering the Eagles did lose to IUPUI as 16-pt chalk last month. Against Providence, they didn't shoot the ball well, but the bigger problem was giving up 87 pts in regulation. Leading scorer Ky Bowman has been in a slump, shooting less than 37% from the floor in three straight games. Columbia was able to defeat Iona despite not having its leading scorer Mike Smith. It appears as if he will suit up on Wednesday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Lions as they lost here LY, 81-66. That was despite attempting only TWO free throws the entire game! Something else to consider here is that Columbia's record could easily be a whole lot better. They have suffered three losses by a total of 4 pts (all by 2 pts or less). They have yet to lose any game by more than 11 points. So just like B.C. really hasn't been blown out, Columbia really hasn't been blown out. 10* Columbia |
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12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): Houston continues to be vastly overrated in the marketplace. It's easy to understand why. They won 65 games last year and it was them, not the Warriors, who went into the playoffs as the #1 seed in the Western Conference. They even took the Warriors to a deciding 7th game in the WCF and even had a big lead w/o Chris Paul. But something is very different this year. While Paul and James Harden are still here, much of the supporting cast has been stripped away. What's left is a below .500 club that is second from the bottom in the Conference and they might as well be "last" considering that Phoenix is the one team below them. The Rockets simply should NOT be favored by this many over a Portland team that is just plain better than them. Take the points. Truthfully, neither of these teams has played very well of late. While Houston is just 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine games, Portland went through its own ATS "dry spell," failing to cover in eight straight games at one point. But they've recovered somewhat w/ B2B wins at home, both of which saw them cover the spread easily. The first was against lowly Phoenix, a game which the Blazers got out to a 36-9 lead. Then came a 113-105 win over Minnesota on Saturday. CJ McCollum is now back in the lineup, so Portland is at full strength here. They've already won here in Houston once this year, doing so by a score of 105-84 back on October 30th. Admittedly, James Harden did not play in that game. When the Rockets won five in a row heading into Thanksgiving, it looked as if they'd righted the ship and the early season struggles had passed. But, now they've gone just 2-7 SU and ATS the L9 games and it's pretty clear that there are some significant issues w/ this team. They've never been known for defense, but last year saw them finish the regular season ranked 6th in efficiency. This year, they're down all the way to 25th. Defensive rebounding is another issue as they're 29th in that category. Chris Paul is shooting only 43.1% from the floor, his lowest percentage since he was a rookie. And the team's bench is last in the league in scoring. Overall, it's just not hard to see why this team is 7-12 ATS as a favorite this season w/ 10 outright losses. 10* Portland |
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12-11-18 | Villanova v. Pennsylvania +7 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
8* Pennsylvania (7:00 ET): Two of Philly's Big 5 meet up Tuesday night at The Palestra. Both Villanova and Penn are 8-2. Villanova is the defending National Champions, yet this season got off to a bit of a dicey start. They were 2-2 after suffering B2B embarrassing losses to Michigan and Furman (both at home). Losing to Michigan isn't that embarrassing, but losing by 27 certainly was. The Wildcats were 16-pt favorites agianst Furman. However, six wins later (the last three all coming against the other Philly area rivals) and Nova is back in the top 25. They deserve to be, but this won't be an easy game against Penn. I'm taking the points. Villanova is obviously Philly's finest, but a case can be made that Penn is #2. The Quakers have won four in a row, including an 89-75 victory in this gym over Miami FL. So they certainly won't be intimidated. They too are off a win over a city rival, in their case a bad LaSalle team, whom they defeated 83-65 as 5.5-pt chalk. Note Nova was a 17-pt fave @ LaSalle, yet only won by seven. That was their only other "true" road game as well. Subsequent wins over Temple and St. Joe's (at home) have made it 25 straight Big 5 victories. This team is now 29-14 ATS its last 43 games overall. But I stand by my earlier assertion that this will not be an easy game for the favored Wildcats. Early in the year, Penn lost Ryan Betley, a 3-pt specialist and all-Ivy League Player. But the team hasn't missed a beat. Freshman Michael Wang has picked up the slack, shooting a ridiculous 57.4% from the field. Penn is a very good shooting team overall, making nearly 50% of its shots, including almost 40% from three-point range. That will go a long way when taking points. The Quakers are 4-0 at home, averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on 56.3% shooting. Obviously, they won't approach those numbers tonight, but they should still score enough to cover. Villanova did not shoot well in its last game (37.5%). 8* Pennsylvania |
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12-10-18 | Clippers v. Suns +11 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns have been beyond atrocious recently, but that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've been without their top two scorers, TJ Warren and Devin Bookier. Warren is expected back tonight and while there's no disputing just how ugly it's been in Phoenix this year, I think the team is more than capable of staying inside a double digit number at home. The Clippers, are one of the bigger surprises in the league so far, but they've been held 100 pts in B2B losses. They just lost as 9.5-pt home favorites to Miami and are only 7-7 SU on the road. The Suns are off to the worst start in franchise history at 4-22 SU. They've lost eight in a row, also going 0-8 ATS. Their last loss was also at home to Miami, although they were 8.5-pt dogs and the final score was 115-98. Still, I can't harp enough on the fact that they've been down their top two scorers. Warren will only play limited minutes tonight, but his 17.2 PPG scoring average will be welcomed. I just have to think that this team is due to - at the very worst - play a close game tonight. The Clippers beat the Suns at home a couple weeks ago, 115-99. But it was a tie game at halftime. That also happens to be the last time both Warren and Booker suited up for the Suns. I realize that this is a team with very little going for it right now, but they're still a group of professionals w/ some pride. Losing a seventh straight time by double digits is almost unheard of, even for the worst teams in this league. I just have the feeling that the oddsmakers are being a little bit too generous in this one. 8* Phoenix |
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12-10-18 | Magic +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 76-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
8* Orlando (8:35 ET): Dallas has won 9 in a row at home and their last win here was special for me as it was a *10* Top Division Play that saw them upset Houston. Overall, the Mavs have won 11 of their last 13 games as they look to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. But as good as they've been at home so far, they're a team that still isn't favored all that often. Tonight will mark just the 4th time they've been favored to win a game by more than three points. Likely w/o starting PG Dennis Smith Jr for a third straight game, I see them as a ripe for a letdown tonight. Orlando is also improved this year, though you wouldn't know it from the result of their last game. They lost by 22 at home to Indiana, who was w/o Victor Oladipo. It was the Magic's second straight loss as Denver also beat them at home last Wednesday. But prior to those consecutive setbacks, the Magic were on a real roll at the betting window, covering 11 of 13 games. They are 9-2 ATS on the road this year and 13-7 ATS overall when taking points. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is going to play despite suffering an ankle injury in the game vs. Indiana Friday night. The Magic are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off B2B losses. As well as the Mavericks have played at home this year, I simply do not like them laying this many points. The Magic have actually played significantly better defense on the road than at home. They are allowing just 104.7 PPG as a visitor as opposed to 111.1 PPG at home. I just see this as a game where is Dallas is likely to have a letdown. 8* Orlando |
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12-10-18 | Pistons +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons are 0-4 SU/ATS their L4 games, including a loss at home last night to New Orleans. Their rotation is rather thin due to injuries, so few will give them a chance this evening against a Philadelphia team that is 13-1 SU at home (only loss is to Cleveland!). Plus, the Sixers just beat them in Detroit, 117-111 Friday night. While the Pistons had to play last night, Philly hasn't had to play since. But I believe the Pistons will keep this one close, even having a chance at possibly stealing the game outright! Take the points. In that game Friday night in the Motor City, the Pistons were 2.5-point favorites. They lost, so there has to be some adjustment by the oddsmakers, but they've shifted their respective views of the teams too far, in my opinion. Granted, the Sixers won that last meeting despite Joel Embiid not even suiting up. But they actually trailed by 12 at halftime. The Pistons wound up having an off-shooting night at 41.6% from the field and they missed 28 of 35 three-point attempts. This is a better team than what they've shown the L4 games. They're also 2-0 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS when its off a SU win as a dog this season. Having just beaten the Pistons w/o Embiid, I can see them being overconfident coming into tonight. This is actually the 4th time these teams have met this season. Detroit took the first meeting, 133-132, in overtime. But they not only lost Friday, but here in Philly last month by 10 points. Still, I expect a focus effort from the road dog tonight. This is a team desperate for a win and they're not about to get blown out. Seven of Philadelphia's previous nine wins have come by single digits. 8* Detroit |
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12-09-18 | Montana State v. Washington State -11 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Washington State (7:00 ET): This should be an extremely easy game for Wazzu at home. Both of the Cougars losses this year have been on the road. Here in Pullman, they're already 5-0 SU and averaging 89.2 PPG. They've covered the spread in all five games as well. Now the competition hasn't exactly been the stingiest, but it's not like we should expect much here from a bad Montana State side that has won only two games so far. The Bobcats have had to play most of their games on the road so far and are 0-5 SU outside of Bozeman, losing by an average of almost 23 PPG. I'll lay the points here. In its last game, Washington State won by 20 over Idaho. They were laying a similar number to what they are here and scored 90 points. They've now scored at least 80 in every home game. That kind of offensive prowess is going to put a lot of pressure on Montana State here as the Bobcats have topped 70 in only one road game so far (at Colorado State) and were held to just 35 by Indiana. A big key here (as it usually is) will be shooting from behind the arc. Wazzu is taking nearly 30 three-point shots per game, which is top 10 in the country. That high volume is going to be problematic for their opponent tonight, who often struggles to defend the 3-pt line. Montana State has not played in 11 days, so don't be surprised if they come out rusty. Furthermore, they're off a rare win as well. They beat North Dakota in a close game, one that saw them rally back from a halftime deficit. The 81-76 win marked MSU's second fewest points allowed in a game this season, which is kind of frightening. The only opponent to score less against them was Presentation College, a NAIA school who went for 68. The Bobcats are allowing 84.1 PPG, which is bottom 15 in the country right now. I don't think the long layoff is going to be a benefit, rather it's more likely to be a hindrance. Washington State has covered 10 of its last 11 games against teams allowing 77 or more points per game. 10* Washington State |
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12-08-18 | San Diego State -4 v. California | Top | 83-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Both teams are off a loss here. San Diego State's was more shocking as they fell as six-point favorites to San Diego. Cal's loss also occurred at home, but they were seven-point dogs to a good San Francisco team. I don't know if the Bears are thinking about switching conferences (only kidding!), but they've actually taken on three straight West Coast Conference teams. While they did beat a bad Santa Clara squad, the Bears not only lost to USF, but at St. Mary's as well. Of course, the team SDSU just lost to also hails from the WCC. While it may seem like a relatively even matchup Sat night, I still believe the Aztecs have a significant edge and thus I'll lay the short number. These schools have met each of the last two seasons, right around this time of year. It was a neutral site game that San Diego State won back in 2016, 77-65 as 6.5-pt underdogs. Last year, Cal won on the road, 63-62 as 16.5-pt dogs. So it's a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Lucky for them, Cal has won just two of its eight games this season w/ five of those losses coming by double digits. It's a real bad scene in Berkeley right now as both wins came against teams outside my top 200. This team does not defend well as they've given up at least 76 points in all six losses. I mentioned earlier that SDSU suffered an outright loss in their last game, to San Diego. Looking at the second half of that game, it's pretty stunning how the Aztecs fell apart. They led by seven at halftime, but were outscored 47-28 in the second half. That kind of defensive collapse just doesn't happen w/ this team very often as opponents are shooting less than 40% against the Aztecs for the season. Fortunately, SDSU is not only 26-9-4 ATS off an ATS loss, but also 5-1 ATS off their previous six SU losses. This year has already seen them respond from a couple blowout losses (to Duke and Iowa State) w/ nice wins and covers over Xavier and Jackson State. Make no mistake about it, the Aztecs are the significantly better team here. 8* San Diego State |
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Bryan Power Basketball Sides Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-23-19 | DePaul +10 v. Marquette | Top | 69-79 | Push | 0 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
01-23-19 | Cavs +15.5 v. Celtics | Top | 103-123 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
01-23-19 | Georgia +11.5 v. LSU | Top | 82-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
01-22-19 | Wichita State +2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 41-54 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
01-22-19 | Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan -1.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
01-21-19 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 59-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
01-21-19 | Rockets +5 v. 76ers | Top | 93-121 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
01-21-19 | Bulls v. Cavs +2 | Top | 104-88 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
01-20-19 | Clippers +9 v. Spurs | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
01-20-19 | Illinois +8 v. Iowa | Top | 71-95 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Penn State +4 v. Minnesota | Top | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Kings v. Pistons +2 | Top | 103-101 | Push | 0 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Western Michigan +8.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 48-79 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke -2.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Thunder +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 117-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
01-19-19 | Michigan v. Wisconsin +4 | Top | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
01-18-19 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
01-18-19 | Ohio +9 v. Toledo | Top | 52-75 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
01-17-19 | Hawaii -1 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 84-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
01-17-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Middle Tennessee +3.5 | Top | 86-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
01-17-19 | 76ers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 120-96 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
01-16-19 | Minnesota v. Illinois +2 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
01-16-19 | Butler -2 v. DePaul | Top | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
01-15-19 | Warriors v. Nuggets +2 | Top | 142-111 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
01-15-19 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -13 | Top | 74-82 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
01-15-19 | Ball State -1 v. Bowling Green | Top | 78-79 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
01-14-19 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 94-112 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
01-14-19 | Nebraska +3 v. Indiana | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
01-13-19 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -2 | Top | 54-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
01-12-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Kings | Top | 97-104 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
01-12-19 | CS-Northridge v. Cal Poly +1 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
01-12-19 | San Diego State -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 48-62 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
01-11-19 | Lakers v. Jazz -8 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
01-11-19 | Hornets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-127 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
01-11-19 | Wright State +6 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
01-10-19 | Pistons +5.5 v. Kings | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
01-10-19 | Thunder -1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 147-154 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
01-10-19 | Middle Tennessee +11.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
01-09-19 | CS-Northridge v. UC Riverside +1.5 | Top | 84-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
01-09-19 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +3 | Top | 86-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
01-09-19 | Auburn -2.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
01-08-19 | Knicks +18.5 v. Warriors | Top | 95-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
01-08-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -11.5 | Top | 54-84 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
01-08-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -11.5 | Top | 84-82 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
01-08-19 | Missouri State +8.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 72-57 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
01-06-19 | Wisconsin +1 v. Penn State | Top | 71-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
01-05-19 | Colorado State v. Fresno State -15 | Top | 67-78 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
01-04-19 | Thunder +1 v. Blazers | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
01-04-19 | Hawks v. Bucks -14 | Top | 112-144 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
01-03-19 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
01-03-19 | UTEP +7 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
01-02-19 | Fresno State -13.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 73-53 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
01-02-19 | Northern Iowa +8 v. Bradley | Top | 65-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
01-02-19 | Heat v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 117-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
01-01-19 | Blazers -1 v. Kings | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
01-01-19 | Jazz +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 116-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
01-01-19 | CS-Northridge v. San Diego State -15.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
12-31-18 | Magic +7.5 v. Hornets | Top | 100-125 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
12-31-18 | Monmouth v. Pennsylvania -14 | Top | 76-74 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Towson +8.5 v. William & Mary | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
12-30-18 | Appalachian State +12 v. St. Louis | Top | 55-83 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
12-29-18 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -3 | Top | 74-76 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
12-28-18 | Bulls v. Wizards -5.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
12-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
12-26-18 | Suns v. Magic -4 | Top | 122-120 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
12-25-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 107-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
12-23-18 | Bulls v. Cavs -1 | Top | 112-92 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
12-22-18 | William & Mary v. Virginia -21.5 | Top | 40-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
12-22-18 | Temple v. Drexel +10.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
12-21-18 | Buffalo v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 85-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
12-21-18 | Coastal Carolina +11.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Arkansas-Little Rock +15 v. Memphis | Top | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Suns v. Celtics -11.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
12-19-18 | Old Dominion v. Richmond +5.5 | Top | 63-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
12-18-18 | Mavs v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 118-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
12-18-18 | Buffalo v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Grizzlies +12 v. Warriors | Top | 93-110 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Kings +8 v. Wolves | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Jazz +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
12-17-18 | Suns v. Knicks -1 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
12-15-18 | LSU v. St. Mary's +3 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
12-15-18 | Penn State v. NC State -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
12-14-18 | Green Bay +18.5 v. Creighton | Top | 65-86 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
12-13-18 | Bulls v. Magic -4.5 | Top | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
12-12-18 | LSU +6 v. Houston | Top | 76-82 | Push | 0 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
12-12-18 | Portland State +17 v. BYU | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
12-12-18 | Knicks v. Cavs +2 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
12-12-18 | Columbia +15.5 v. Boston College | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
12-11-18 | Villanova v. Pennsylvania +7 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
12-10-18 | Clippers v. Suns +11 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
12-10-18 | Magic +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 76-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
12-10-18 | Pistons +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
12-09-18 | Montana State v. Washington State -11 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
12-08-18 | San Diego State -4 v. California | Top | 83-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show |