Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-09-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Reds/Brewers (8:10 ET): Milwaukee seemed to be at a disadvantage going into yday’s series opener with the Reds as they had just played a doubleheader the previous day (split with the Mets). But they were able to prevail 5-3, thus partly getting revenge for a sweep they suffered at the hands of Cincinnati last month here at home. The Brew Crew lead the NL Central right now with a seven-game lead over the second place Reds. My view is that tonight’s game is likely to be higher scoring than yesterday. Take the Over. Scoring runs has not been an issue for the Reds in 2021. In fact, they are 2nd in the NL in runs scored, only trailing the Dodgers.They’d been better at run suppression lately, but the troubled bullpen (5.28 ERA) could not hold the lead last night. Wade Miley gets the start Friday. While he allowed only two runs his last time out, he did give up 10 hits. That one went Under, but his previous six starts had all gone Over the total. The Over is 10-5 in all Miley starts this season. Eric Lauer is off B2B quality starts for Milwaukee. But the last time he faced the Reds, Lauer gave up four runs in five innings and Milwaukee lost 10-2. Four of his last five starts have gone Over the total. Things didn’t go any better for Lauer when he faced the Reds last August as he gave up six runs in three innings. Both of these starters are lefties. The Reds are 7-2 Over L9 road games vs. a lefty. The Brewers are 7-2-1 their L10 home games vs. a lefty. 8* Over Reds/Brewers |
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07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
8* Over Phillies/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Coming off a four-game series in which they scored a total of 39 runs, the Phillies now get to use the DH as they visit Boston this weekend. Of course, the Phils give up their fair share of runs as well. They may not have given up any yesterday (won 8-0), but that was to a Cubs team that can’t score right now. In three of the previous nine games, Phillies pitching surrendered 11 or more runs. The Red Sox have scored the 2nd most runs in all of MLB, so this one is likely going Over. Boston wasn’t as successful in its last series, which saw them drop two of three to the Angels. However, barring a terrible weekend, they are likely to head into the All-Star Break in first place in the AL East. I’m not concerned about their ability to score runs Friday, but what they need to be concerned about is starter Garrett Richards, who has been very poor of late. Richards has an 8.02 ERA and 2.107 WHIP his L3 starts. It’s not like his season-long numbers are much better either. Richards really seems to struggle here at Fenway Park where he has a 6.75 ERA and 2.079 WHIP. These teams played three games in Philadelphia earlier in the season. Only one of the three games saw more than 11 runs scored, but remember that was without a DH in play. Richards did not pitch in any of the three games for Boston. Neither did Vince Velasquez for Philly. Velasquez’s numbers aren’t quite as poor as Richards, but he did just allow 5 ER in his last start. In seven of the Phillies last 10 games, the winning team has had to score at least eight runs. The Over is 5-0 their L5 games. 8* Over Phillies/Red Sox |
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07-08-21 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 10 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Phillies/Cubs (8:05 ET): This has been a high-scoring series with every game seeing a minimum of 11 total runs scored. The Phillies exceeded that number themselves in each of the first two games. The good news for the Cubs is they FINALLY snapped their long losing streak (had reached 11 games) with an 8-3 win last night. The first inning was key for Chicago on Wednesday as they scored three unearned runs with two outs. There was a Phillies error followed by four straight soft singles. I don’t think they can count on that happening again and the Phils are due to start cooling off at the plate as well. Take the Under here. The first two games of this series saw Philadelphia score 28 runs. It was the first time they scored 10+ runs in B2B games in over six years. So it wasn’t a shock then to see them reduced to scoring only three runs yesterday. They face Adbert Alzolay tonight. Don’t be fooled by the fact Alzolay has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. He’s off a quality effort last time out against the Reds, who are a good offensive team. In that start, Alzolay allowed just three runs on five hits. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Phillies have been off a loss. All eight runs scored by the Cubs yesterday came with two outs. So it wasn’t just the first inning that saw them get a bit lucky. Prior to the L2 days, this is a team that had scored three runs or less in 17 of 21 games. So after them scoring 18 runs in the L2 games, I’d certainly expect a substantial decrease in production tonight. Zach Eflin starts for the Phillies here. He not only has a 2.81 ERA in four career starts vs. the Cubs, but is also coming off B2B quality starts. Eflin held the Mets and Padres to just three runs and eight hits in 12 IP. The Under is 9-3 for the Cubs if they scored 5+ runs their previous game. 10* Under Phillies/Cubs |
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07-06-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Yankees/Mariners (10:10 ET): The Yankees are underachieving at the moment with seven losses in their last nine games. They’ve been booed off the field by their own fans and are just a game above .500 as we near the All-Star Break. With three teams ahead of them in the American League East and a 10.5 game gap between them and the first place Red Sox, there is plenty of work to be done. They could start by scoring more runs. Did you know that they’ve scored the fewest number of runs among all AL teams this season? I’ve written about it before, but Seattle is MLB’s biggest overachiever in the first half of the season. They have a YTD run differential of -42. Based on said run differential, you’d “expect” them to have a WL record of 38-47. Instead, they are 45-40, largely on the back of a 19-7 record in one-run games and 9-1 record in extra innings. Both those records are MLB’s best. The gap between the Mariners’ expected and actual win total is the largest in all of MLB. They are due for a downturn and the bottom line is you should expect them to fall out of playoff contention in the second half. For this series opener, I’m going with the Over. Both teams do have their issues offensively, but you’ve got to look at the two starters for Tuesday. Justus Sheffield has really struggled of late for Seattle with a 9.45 ERA and 2.176 WHIP his L3 starts. Going back further, he hasn’t lasted a full six innings in any of his L7 starts, a span in which his ERA is 7.09 and his WHIP is 1.97. So he’s been struggling for a while now. Speaking of struggling, Jameson Taillon has been downright awful on the road for the Yankees. He has a 11.12 ERA and 2.118 WHIP outside the Bronx and all five of those starts have gone Over the total. 10* Over Yankees/Mariners |
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07-03-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
8* Under Cubs/Reds (4:10 ET): The Cubs lost for the seventh straight yesterday, 2-1 to the Reds. It was also the fifth time during the losing streak that they were held to 1 or 2 runs. Cincinnati has now won B2B games (both by 1 run) for the 1st time since 6/22-24. The teams are now separated by just one-half game in the NL Central and have identical YTD run differentials (-3). I look for today to be another low-scoring game at Great American Ballpark as four of the last six meetings between these clubs have seen six or fewer total runs scored. Take the Under. The Cubs come in with poor offensive numbers to begin with, particularly on the road where they are hitting a collective .214 and scoring only 3.7 rpg. As I said earlier, they’ve been in a real offensive slump and it actually extends beyond just the current seven-game slide. Since July 13th, they’ve been held to three runs or fewer a total of 14 times. That’s out of 17 games. So even though Tyler Mahle typically pitches better on the road than at home for the Reds, look for him to pitch well today against a struggling lineup. Over his last seven starts, Mahle has a 0.966 WHIP. Admittedly, the Reds’ offense is usually pretty good at home. But they haven’t topped five runs in any of their last four games and yesterday they could manage only four hits. They’ve also struck out 10 or more times in five of the last seven games. So Adbert Alzolay, who allowed a season-high in runs last time out, should bounce back Saturday afternoon. The last time Alzolay faced the Reds, he tossed 5 ⅔ scoreless innings and the Cubs won 1-0. He’ll need to be that good again considering the lack of run support he’s likely to get. 8* Under Cubs/Reds |
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07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* Under Astros/Indians (7:05 ET): I tried with the Under on this matchup last night and sadly playing after the line moved was costly. The O/U line opened at 9.0, but dropped to 8.5. In the end, Houston won 7-2. Most of the scoring occurred early and really the result was determined by one swing of the bat, that being a Jose Altuve grand slam. While that swing of the bat was not welcomed by me or the Indians, it certainly was for an Astros team that had just gotten swept by Baltimore (at home!) and scored three runs or less in five of their previous six games. But I wouldn’t expect Houston to go for that many again tonight. Take the Under again here. Cleveland is not a particularly good offensive team. They are 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in on base percentage. They scored only two runs yesterday and have just nine in their last 23 innings. This despite hitting four home runs (all solo) in one of the games Wednesday. In their last 10 games, they’ve had more than eight hits just once. Six of those games have seen them finish with six or fewer hits. So expect Lance McCullers Jr to pitch well tonight for Houston. It’s not like McCullers isn’t doing well enough on his own. He’s allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine consecutive outings. Now Sam Hentges did not pitch well his last time out for Cleveland. He gave up six runs in just three innings, a game the Tribe ended up losing 8-2. But Hentges had been fairly solid before that, including five shutout innings vs. Pittsburgh on 6/20. Houston is batting just .208 its L7 games. I do not think they’re going to be able to maintain a scoring average of 5.9 rpg on the road for a full season. So let’s go with the Under again tonight and hope there are no more grand slams. 8* Under Astros/Indians |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 216 | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Hawks/Bucks (8:35 ET): This has become an incredibly difficult game - and series - to handicap with the unknown statuses of Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Young missed Game 4, but it turns out that the Hawks did not need him as they shot 50% from the field and rolled to a 110-88 win. Things took a rather dramatic turn in the 3Q when Antetokounmpo went down with a knee injury and the Bucks never recovered. His status is more in doubt for Game 5 than is Young’s, but there’s a chance neither even plays. That’s a lot of missing offensive production for two teams that have already gone Under in three straight games. I was dead wrong about the Hawks going into Game 4. The numbers showed that their offensive efficiency went way down without Young, but they wound up turning in just their fifth 110+ point game of the playoffs. Lou Williams stepped up big time, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance from him. Clint Capella is also questionable for tonight and Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a knee injury. On the road again, I just don’t see how Atlanta can match its offensive performance from the last game - even if Young were to return. The Antetokounmpo injury seems to loom largest though as there’s no replacing him for Milwaukee. It would be up to Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom are known to “step it up” at home. There’s no doubt (in my mind) that the Bucks are going to score more tonight than they did in Game 4, but it would still take a pretty substantial increase for this game to go Over the total. The Under is 10-4 for the Bucks in all playoff games while it’s 11-5 for the Hawks. So the teams have combined to go Under 70% of the time including each of the last three games. How about one more? 10* Under Hawks/Bucks |
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07-01-21 | Mets v. Braves OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
8* Over Mets/Braves (7:20 ET): I took the Over in Jacob deGrom’s last start and won as he allowed a season-high TWO runs against Philadelphia. He figures to allow at least a couple today facing a Braves lineup that just put TWENTY on the board in yesterday’s game. That snapped a five-game Under streak for Atlanta and was the same number of runs they had scored in their previous seven games - combined. It was a bit of an aberration and obviously they probably won’t even score a quarter of that tonight. But I do like the Over again here as deGrom’s last three starts have all gone that way. For what it’s worth, Atlanta does average 5.5 runs per game here at home. That’s top five in all of baseball. While they could muster only one hit the last time they saw deGrom (10 days ago), they only faced him for five innings. They ended up scoring two runs in the game. deGrom has lasted more than six innings only one time in his last nine starts. So the Braves figure to get a decent number of cracks against a Mets’ bullpen they hammered for 14 runs yesterday. The Mets’ bullpen ERA on the road this year is 5.11. deGrom isn’t going to give up a ton of runs, but the ridiculous season that he’s having is likely to have a “speed bump” or two. Of course, the Mets could also help us out here by scoring more runs. They’ve been held to just 19 runs in the L7 games and it feels like they are due to breakout against Ian Anderson, who has seen the Over hit in six of his seven home starts this season. Braves’ home games average 10.3 rpg. The Over is 22-8-1 when the Mets are road favorites. 8* Over Mets/Braves |
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07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Padres/Reds (7:10 ET): Here’s a matchup I won last night by taking San Diego. They won 7-5 in a rain shortened game (called after six innings) and now have a chance to sweep the Reds for the second time in three weeks. They are 6-0 vs. Cincinnati in 2021, but interestingly enough are NOT favored to win tonight. This despite facing a starting pitcher with a 4-12 TSR. But Luis Castillo (the Reds’ starter in question) has been MUCH better of late and should help keep this game relatively low-scoring. With the teams combining for 12 runs in just 5 ⅓ innings last night, you may find it a bit curious to come back and take the Under the next day. But note those 12 runs came on just 12 hits. San Diego got a grand slam, which doesn’t happen every day, and that one swing of the bat accounted for the bulk of its runs. I mentioned earlier how Castillo has been much better of late. He held San Diego to three runs in six innings back on 6/20. He also has twice thrown seven scoreless innings in his L3 starts. His L5 starts have seen him allow a total of 6 ER. So look the other way when it comes to Castillo’s record. He’s pitching very well of late. San Diego’s Ryan Weathers has a 2.78 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in eight starts this season. The numbers get even better in his four starts on the road (2.30, 0.893). This will be his first start since June 7th as he’s taking the injured Dinelson Lamet’s spot in the rotation. Usually, you might not have a lot of confidence in a “fill-in” starter, but I like Weathers’ resume. The Reds have never faced him before and they hit just .228 off LH starters. Under is 33-16-4 in the Padres’ last 53 games when the total is 9.0 to 10.5. 8* Under Padres/Reds |
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07-01-21 | Astros v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Astros/Indians (7:10 ET): I won with the Under in the Astros’ game last night. I was right that Baltimore, who had scored 22 runs in the first two games of that series, would see its scoring decrease. It did as Houston held them to five runs (four of those coming in the first). That was more than I expected them to allow. Thankfully though, the ‘Stros only scored two of their own as their offense has gone dormant the last several games.. They’ve scored three runs or less in five of the last six games. I’m going with the Under again tonight as Cleveland is hardly a reputable offensive ballclub. The Indians played a doubleheader yesterday and lost both games (here at home) to the Tigers. Their offense could manage only eight hits in the two games. I don’t really like their chances of doing much damage at the plate here against Framber Valdez, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Valdez has a 2.11 ERA and 0.991 WHIP in six starts. Going back to the end of last year, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 11 straight starts. He allowed a season-high 3 ER last time out (at Detroit), but two of those came on one pitch. The Indians actually homered four times in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, but all were solo shots. Rest assured they won’t be repeating that long-ball performance today. They only got runners in scoring position five times in the two games. This team is 29th (next to last) in all of MLB in OBP. As far as keeping Houston in check, Jean Carlos Mejia’s job as Cleveland’s starter may be easier than you think based on the Astros’ recent offensive slump. Also, Mejia is coming off his best start to date as he allowed only one run in six innings of work. 8* Under Astros/Indians |
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06-30-21 | Orioles v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston has been shocked by Baltimore each of the last two games, losing 9-7 and 13-3. They were massive favorites on the ML in both losses (-325 and -290). In each instance, the bullpen was to blame as that group has given up 18 of the 22 runs allowed in this series. So a strong effort is needed today from starter Luis Garcia and thankfully he has a 1.78 ERA and 0.991 WHIP at home this season. I’m going with the Under here as Baltimore won’t be scoring as many runs today, but the money line is still too high. Monday’s game really had no business going Over. It was 4-4 headed into the ninth, but then the Orioles went off for a five-run 9th followed by the Astros scoring three of their own. Yesterday saw the O’s homer four times and nine of their runs came in the final two innings. Playing 20 games in 20 days has obviously adversely affected Houston, but they can lean on Garcia tonight as he has allowed two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season. Now Matt Harvey could be the “fly in the ointment” with this Under play as he is having a terrible year for Baltimore. But with Houston scoring three runs or fewer in four of its last five games, maybe this is the spot where Harvey steps up. He only allowed 3 ER in 5 ⅔ IP his last time out. Even if the Astros score five or six runs in this game, it still should stay Under as I just can’t see the Orioles going off again. They average only 3.9 runs per game on the road. 10* Under Orioles/Astros |
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06-29-21 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* Under Twins/White Sox (8:10 ET): Mother nature would not allow this series to begin as scheduled on Monday. So after a rainout, things get underway Tuesday with Lucas Giolito going for the White Sox and Kenta Maeda going for the Twins. This looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup as both guys are well rested. Giolito dominated the Twins the one time he faced them earlier in the year. He went eight innings and allowed just one run on two hits. He also had 11 strikeouts in the 2-1 win. Maeda is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA in four career starts vs. the White Sox, all of which have been here in Chicago. Take the Under. Maeda has also made one previous start against the White Sox this year. In it, he allowed three runs and four hits over five innings. Not his best effort, but still pretty good. Last time out, Maeda allowed just two runs on five hits in 5 ⅓ IP. That makes it six straight starts from him where he allowed three or fewer runs. The White Sox have actually been struggling of late, losing seven of their last nine games. They’ve topped four runs just one time in that stretch. So look for Maeda to pitch well on Tuesday as it’s been nearly two weeks since Chicago had 10 or more hits in a game. The Twins are off B2B wins where they scored eight runs in both games. But we should see them cool off here against Giolito, who has allowed more than 3 ER in only four of his 15 starts this year. The Over is actually 3-0 in Giolito’s last three starts, but that’s mostly because of good run support. He has a 1.00 WHIP in those three starts, never factoring into a decision. The Under is 15-6-2 in the White Sox last 23 home games where they are allowing only 3.3 rpg this season. 10* Under Twins/White Sox |
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06-27-21 | A's v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10* Over A’s/Giants (4:05 ET): Thanks to extra innings, these teams combined to go Over the total on Saturday. The Giants won the game 6-5 (total was 8.0) and now go for the sweep on Sunday. They won 2-0 on Friday, so runs have been fairly hard to come by for both teams. Maybe that’s not all that surprising for the A’s, who don’t get to utilize the designated hitter in this interleague series. But the Giants average 5.1 runs per game at home and the Over is 12-4-1 here their L17 games vs. AL teams. Take the Over today. It’s a battle of southpaws on the mound Sunday, which often has me thinking the other way (Under) as many teams struggle against left-handed pitching. But not the Giants, who are scoring 5.2 rpg when facing a LH starter. They are 12-3-1 their L16 interleague games vs. a lefty. It will be Cole Irvin that they face today. Irvin has a 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts and he’s allowed four runs each of the last two starts, despite not making it through six innings either time. The Giants are averaging 7.4 rpg in their L9 contests. Sammy Long will go for San Francisco today. Long made his first ever big league start back last Sunday and it went well with him allowing only two runs and four hits in 6 IP. But the game vs. Philadelphia still (easily) went Over as it was an 11-2 win for the Giants. Oakland’s hitters are likely to test Long more than the Phillies did. The A’s have scored more runs this season on the road than at home and they are now 6-1 Over their last seven games at San Fran. 10* Over A’s/Giants |
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06-26-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Phillies/Mets (4:10 ET): This may seem a bit crazy with the incomparable Jacob deGrom pitching today for the Mets. In what has been one of the greatest pitching efforts in MLB history, deGrom has allowed a TOTAL of FOUR earned runs all season (also three unearned). His 0.50 ERA would be a record. The last time deGrom allowed a run to score was May 25th. He’s working on a 27-inning scoreless streak coming into today. On top of deGrom pitching, these teams combined for just six runs total in yesterday’s doubleheader and both games went an extra inning (still only 8 inning games). So the numbers definitely do not favor what I am picking here. But deGrom has been dealing with right shoulder soreness and that has limited him to just eight combined innings in his last two starts. Once he’s out of the game, the Phillies will have their chances to score runs. Interestingly enough, when the Phillies faced deGrom earlier this year, they were shutout for six innings. But after deGrom left, they rallied for a 5-3 win. With the total being this low, we don’t need a ton of runs from the Phillies today. Or maybe the Mets can send this one Over by themselves? They’ll be facing Zach Eflin, who has really struggled for the Phillies as of late. Eflin allowed seven runs in his last start, a game the Phils lost 11-2. Eflin has been particularly bad on the road where he has an ERA of 6.26. The Over is 9-4 in the Phillies’ last 13 road games with a total of 6.5 or lower. I really do think there’s a chance that the Mets can send this one Over themselves. But I also look for the Phillies to get on the board today as well. 10* Over Phillies/Mets |
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06-26-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Danilo Marques OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques (3:45 ET): This is a Light Heavyweight bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-1, 2-1 in UFC) and Danilo Marques (11-2, 2-0 in UFC). It is scheduled for three rounds. The O/U line is set at 1.5 rounds and I don’t think it’s going to have much difficulty going Over. Nzechukwu has fought only one time since 2019. That was a second round knockout of Carlos Ulberg back in March. His previous two UFC both went to the third round and his only other win was a decision. He did lose his UFC debut to Paul Craig via submission. Only one of Nzechukwu’s last six fights have gone to the cards, but I think this one has the potential to do so. Nzechukwu is going to want to keep this fight standing and look to win by striking. But the opponent is going to have a much different gameplan. Marques is on a four-fight win streak and 2-0 in the UFC. Before making his UFC debut in September of 2020, Marques had fought very sparingly. He did not fight in 2019 and fought just once in 2018. The UFC debut, last September, was a decision win over Khadis Ibragimov. He then won by rear-naked choke late in Round 2 over Mike Rodriguez. That’s still past the halfway mark of Round 2, which is all we need here. Marques is going to look to get this fight to the ground. A clash of styles will lengthen this fight. 10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques |
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06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Mariners/White Sox (8:10 ET): I also like the Under in this game. Rodon is obviously a big reason for that. The Mariners are 29th in team batting average, last in on base percentage and 29th in OPS. So they are simply not going to score many runs tonight. Honestly, I would not be the least bit surprised if they get blanked. But with Kikuchi on the hill, they won’t give up a ton of runs either. Kikuchi has allowed 3 ER or fewer in nine straight starts and he’s given up just one run total in his last two outings. Both of those last two outings saw him go seven innings. This could easily end up being 3-0 Chicago. 8* Under Mariners/White Sox |
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06-24-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Over Cubs/Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Cubs and Dodgers probably feel like they should be leading their respective divisions right now, but both have struggled of late. The Cubs had dropped six of eight before winning 7-1 in Cleveland on Tuesday. The Dodgers were just swept in San Diego. But I still like the future outlook for both teams. The Cubs are the only team in the NL Central with a positive YTD run differential. The Dodgers YTD run differential, while taking a hit in recent days, is still among the best in baseball. These teams have met before in 2021. The Cubs swept a three-game series where every game went Over the total. Rather than play the revenge angle here (odds are too steep), I’m looking for the Over trend to continue as the Dodgers should rediscover their offense now that they’re back in Chavez Ravine. They scored only seven runs the entire series vs. San Diego, but this is a team that averages 5.2 runs per game at home. I like the matchup against Cubs starter Zack Davies, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.767 WHIP on the road this year. Last time out, Davies allowed eight runs and that was at home. Davies will be opposed here by Walker Buehler. It would seem “fashionable” to expect Buehler not to give up many runs. After all, he’s been pretty “lights out” in June, especially the L3 starts. But when he started against the Cubs on 5/5, it ended up being a 6-5 game even with Buehler turning in a quality start. He figures to get plenty of run support this time, so as long as the Cubs score a few, this one should easily surpass the O/U line. 8* Over Cubs/Dodgers |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Clippers (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 (again!), the Clippers are going to come out desperate here in Game 3 at home. Expect them to lean heavily on the three-point shot as they’ve already attempted 81 in the first two games and made over 40%. That percentage might sound high, but this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season at over 41%. So they’re actually “right on par.” This is a team that averages 116.4 PPG at home. In the last four home games, all wins, they’ve averaged 126.75 PPG. So look for this one to go Over the total. Phoenix has also shot the ball well in the first two games. They finished at a blistering 55.1% in Game 1, which I did not think they would match in Game 2. They didn’t, but still shot 50% from the field. One area where they did struggle though was from behind the three-point arc. They made just 6 of 26 attempts. Devin Booker saw his point total cut in half from Game 1 as he finished with only 20 points in Game 2 (on 5 of 16 shooting). I would expect an increase in points from Booker tonight and for the Suns to shoot better from three-point range. Chris Paul is now listed as probable for tonight after missing the first two games. Regardless if he plays or not, Paul’s backup (Cameron Payne) is probably going to do well. He had 29 points and nine assists in Game 2. If Paul does play here, Payne is likely to have a big game playing against the Clipper second unit. If Paul doesn’t suit up, well, Payne has already proven he can step up. Prior to stealing Game 2, the Suns had scored 113 or more points in seven straight games. They are 25-12-1 Over L38 games and this one should go Over as well. 10* Over Suns/Clippers |
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06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
8* Under Royals/Yankees (1:05 ET): These teams are wrapping up a three-game series Thursday afternoon. The Yankees are heavily favored to take today’s rubber match after prevailing 6-5 last night. It was 6-5 Kansas City in the opener. One thing that is quite interesting when looking at the Royals’ scoring in this series is that seven of their 11 runs have come in the eighth inning or later. For a Yankees bullpen that’s usually pretty good, it’s uncharacteristic for them to be giving up so many runs. Look for that to stop in this early afternoon start as this will be the lowest scoring game of the three in this series. Take the Under. Kansas City will hand the ball to Brad Keller, who admittedly has been struggling of late. He’s 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA/1.892 WHIP his L3 starts. But before that, he had gone 4-0 with a 3.62 ERA over a five-start stretch. So there’s definitely some inconsistency here, but I think we’ll be getting the “good Keller” today. The Yankees are only averaging 3.8 runs per game at home this season with a .224 team batting average. In day games, they are averaging only 3.0 rpg while hitting .208 and the Under is 19-10. Jameson Taillon, like Keller, is coming off a rough last few starts. But here he’ll be facing a lineup that produces an average of just 3.7 rpg on the road. Again, the Royals have produced a total of four runs in the first seven innings of the two games here in the Bronx. Taillon has been much better this season when pitching at home where he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. 8* Under Royals/Yankees |
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06-23-21 | Astros v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Under Astros/Orioles (7:05 ET): This series has pretty much gone as anticipated with Houston winning the first two games 10-2 and 3-1. I believe the series finale will be more like yesterday’s game in that it should be relatively low scoring. Obviously, the home team hasn’t done much scoring thus far. With just three runs in two games, the Orioles are “closing in” on being the AL’s lowest scoring team. They have lost 12 of their last 13 games and have scored three runs or fewer eight times in that stretch. Take the Under here. Houston is baseball’s hottest team right now as they’ve won nine in a row. As I’d been predicting, they’ve overtaken Oakland in the AL West. The Astros +122 run differential is also baseball’s best. While a lot of that is due to being the highest scoring team in either league, don’t sleep on the fact that only three AL teams have allowed fewer runs. During this nine-game win streak, they allowed a total of 21 runs. In only one game did they allow more than three and that was when they allowed four on 6/16 vs. Texas. Jose Urquidy will start Wednesday for the Astros. He has a 1.00 WHIP in 12 starts, which is very good, and is coming off B2B quality starts. Urquidy has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. So look for him to easily shut down Baltimore’s anemic lineup. The Orioles only had two hits on Monday and didn’t have any until the eighth inning last night. The only thing giving the Orioles hope here is Tom Eshelman, who looked decent enough in his first start of 2021. Last Friday he gave up just one run on three hits in a game the Orioles actually won 7-1. 10* Under Astros/Orioles |
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06-22-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Brewers/D’backs (9:40 ET): Arizona picked up a VERY rare win last night as they stunned Milwaukee 5-1. Not only did that victory partially avenge a four-game sweep they suffered out in Milwaukee earlier this month, it ended a heinous 17-game losing streak. How bad have things gotten in Arizona? Yesterday was their first win since June 1st. The team has won just six games since May 1st. They currently sit 32 games below .500 after losing 34 of their last 38 games. Given all of the above, we can’t possibly expect the D’backs to win two in a row. But I do like the Under Tuesday. Zac Gallen returned to the Arizona rotation last Thursday after missing five weeks with a forearm strain. You may recall that I took the Over in that game. Predictably, Gallen struggled in his first start back as he was facing the team with the best record in all of baseball. But I expect significant improvement here. Gallen is second on the staff in ERA and Milwaukee has the lowest team batting average in all of MLB (.212) while also ranking 29th in slugging and OPS. This is a much better matchup for Gallen. Because of that scuffling offense, I’m not particularly sold on the Brewers even as they are tied for the lead in their division. They have a negative run differential on the year. But I am sold on Tuesday’s starter Freddie Peralta, who is putting together a very solid 2021. His WHIP for the year is 0.822 and in three career starts vs. Arizona, he has a 0.87 ERA. Peralta has allowed 2 ER or less in seven consecutive starts. There’s been only one time all season that he’s allowed more than three. 8* Under Brewers/D’backs |
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06-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles (1:05 ET): Toronto stormed back in the top of the ninth to “steal” one from Baltimore yesterday. The Jays were down 7-4 heading into the final frame and down to their final out when they exploded for a six-run rally. It’s been “that kind of year” for the Orioles, who have the worst record in the American League after dropping 9 of their last 10. It doesn’t figure to get any better on Sunday with Matt Harvey on the mound. Since May 7th, Harvey is 0-7 with a 12.00 ERA. So while Toronto needed to score late to get the win on Saturday, it’s very likely that they’ll be scoring in bunches early today. Harvey, who has failed to win any of his last eight starts, has given up five runs or more six of his last seven trips to the mound. It’s not like he’s lasting long either. The longest he’s gone during his winless streak is 4 ⅔ innings. He lasted a total of 6 ⅓ his L2 starts and allowed 13 runs. What’s really bad is that Harvey isn’t even giving up a ton of home runs. Everyone is just getting on base against him. He has a 2.391 WHIP his L7 starts. The good news for Baltimore is that they have scored seven runs in each of the first two games of this series. Their only win in the L10 games was the opener on Friday. The Orioles hit a season-high six home runs in yesterday’s game. Today, they face Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has a 6.11 ERA his L3 starts. While that’s mostly due to one poor start against Houston on 6/4, Ryu has allowed 5 HRs in those three starts. The Over has hit in four of his last five starts. 10* Over Blue Jays/Orioles |
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06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Bucks/Nets (8:35 ET): The home team being 6-0 straight up in this series is what will get the “lion’s share” of attention heading into this Game 7 battle. But don’t discount what has been going on from an O/U perspective. The series has been far lower scoring than expected (remember these teams were 1-2 in scoring during the regular season) with five of the six games staying Under by double digits. The only Over was in Game 5 and that one barely got Over. The other games have stayed Under by 17, 27, 66 (a record), 25 and 17 points. I don’t think the O/U is low enough here. Take the Under. This Game 7 being on the road does no favors for Milwaukee. Of their 29 losses this year, 19 have come on the road. They are 0-5 SU this year in Brooklyn, including 0-3 in this series. Those three losses have seen them average just over 100 PPG. Over the L5 games, they have averaged just 98.2 PPG. Khris Middleton really bailed the Bucks out with a 38-point effort in Game 6. But he has shot only 32.3% from the floor in the three games in Brooklyn. Middleton’s likely drop in scoring here is a real problem when you consider his teammates were a combined 2 of 25 from three-point range in the last game. We all know about the Under trend with Game 7’s in the NBA Playoffs. Since 2002-03, the Under is 36-22 in all Game 7’s including 22-7 in Round 2 or later. With five of the previous games in this series staying Under by 17 or more points and three of them not even hitting 200, there’s only one way to play this Game 7. Compared to Game 6, Brooklyn will limit Milwaukee’s number of fast break points. I don’t think Kevin Durant and the Nets will “go off” though as they’ve averaged just 101.1 points the L5 games. James Harden has only 21 pts in the two games since he returned. Kyrie Irving will be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Nets |
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06-19-21 | Roque Martinez v. Josh Parisian OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
6* Over Martinez/Parisian (5:05 ET): Here’s a fight in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division, scheduled for three rounds. It takes place on the prelims. While it’s a couple of “big boys,” I fully expect this one to make it past the O/U line of 1.5 rounds and possibly even go to a decision. Roque Martinez is 15-7-2 overall, but 0-2 in the UFC. Josh Parisian is 13-4 overall and 0-1 in the UFC. With both fighters still looking for that first taste of victory in the UFC, I expect a cautious approach. Take the Over. Now to be fair, most Parisian fights don’t last very long. He’s a bit of a knockout artist, always looking to end things with one big shot. That served him well on the regional scene where he picked up six consecutive finishes, five of them coming in the first round, prior to his UFC debut. But that debut did not go well as he lost an ugly decision to Parker Porter back in November. That was a fight many expected Parisian to win. He didn’t and now it’s back to the drawing board. The level of competition is obviously greater in the UFC than on the regional scene and Parisian is about to be reminded that it’s not always about flashy finishes. Martinez has struggled in the UFC, suffering one-sided losses to Alexander Romanov and Don’Tale Mayes over the last year. He was submitted by Romanov, late in the second round, but did go the distance against Mayes, showing some durability. After a rocky start to his professional career, Martinez has been beaten only four times since 2013 and only one of those came in the first round. I think this one easily makes it past the halfway mark of Round 2. Others obviously agree based on the Over getting juiced up. 6* Over Martinez/Parisian |
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06-19-21 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 104 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
8* Over A’s/Yankees (1:05 ET): It was a relatively low-scoring game between these teams yesterday as the A’s emerged victorious 5-3. That’s pretty much “par for the course” when A’s and Yanks hook up as, going back to 2019, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings. But it ISN’T “par for the course” from what we’ve seen from both clubs lately. Oakland had gone Over in five straight before yday’s win. The Yankees had gone Over in 8 of their last 10 games. I think we’ll see a higher scoring game Saturday afternoon. Take the Over. Oakland continues to lead the AL West, although I have second place Houston #1 in my own personal power ratings right now. But there’s no denying that the A’s are hot, having won seven straight. That’s the longest active win streak in MLB right now. A big reason for the win streak is the bats. The A’s offense is averaging 6.3 rpg during the win streak, which is a very impressive number. Today they’ll face Domingo German, who just allowed 7 runs in his last start and that was against a NL lineup (no DH). In four career appearances vs. Oakland, German’s ERA is 6.05. The Yankees were coming off a three-game sweep of Toronto before losing yesterday. Eight of their last 11 games have seen 10 or more total runs scored. They’ll look to get back on track offensively here against Chris Bassitt, who admittedly has been pretty sharp in 2021. But Bassitt has never pitched at Yankees Stadium before and this is first time facing NY anywhere. His ERA is up over the L3 starts (4.32) as he’s allowed one HR in each outing. The A’s have won his L7 starts, but look for Bassitt not to be as sharp as usual Saturday. 8* Over A’s/Yankees |
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06-18-21 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 119-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Jazz/Clippers (10:05 ET): Injuries have played a vital role in this series. Mike Conley has yet to suit up in the second round for Utah while Donovan Mitchell continues to deal with an ankle injury. Things are more serious for the Clippers, who have lost Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard. But they were the ones to step up in Game 5 with a 119-111 upset (as 8-point underdogs) and one more win would mean they’re on to the Conference Finals, a place no Clippers team has even been before. Despite these key injuries, I still see Game 6 going Over the total. Every game in the series has seen at least 221 total points scored. I learned my lesson taking the Under in the last game. It actually was still in play late in the 4th quarter despite the teams combining for 125 points in the first half and 175 through three quarters. But it ended up being the second highest scoring game of the series. Maybe the Clippers don’t shoot 51% again without Leonard, but this was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season and they’ve been above 40% in each of the L3 games. They are now back at home where theoretically the role players should shoot better. Even without Leonard, I still see the Clips getting to 110 points. Utah was the league’s 2nd best three-point shooting team in the regular season. They put up 54 attempts in Game 5 and made 20. While it was their most 3PA in any game in the series, they previously made 20 on just 39 attempts in Game 2. This is a team that has five scorers averaging at least 15 PPG. One of them (Conley) is out, but Mitchell is averaging over 30 PPG in the postseason and Bojan Bogdanovic made nine threes in the last game for 32 points. The Jazz average 115 PPG on the road and should get to that number here. They are 8-2 Over in all playoff games. 8* Over Jazz/Clippers |
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06-18-21 | Tigers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Tigers/Angels (9:38 ET): The home team took yesterday’s series opener by a score of 7-5. Scoring had actually been pretty tame until the 7th when Taylor Ward’s grand slam broke the game open. It was 7-1 at that point and while the Tigers were able to put four runs on the board in the final two innings, the rally ended up being futile. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for Detroit as they’d previously swept the Royals in KC. Meanwhile, the Angels snapped a three-game losing skid as they’d previously been swept out in Oakland. They are now 4-0 L4 home games. But the streak that I’m more concerned with here is the Angels having now gone Over in seven straight. During this time, they scored an average of 6.3 runs per game while also giving up 6.0. They are also 11-1 Over their L12 games. They’ve played six home games in that stretch and averaged 7.7 rpg in them. Facing the struggling Jose Urena tonight, the Angels production at the plate should continue. Urena has a 7.29 ERA and 1.783 WHIP his L3 starts and gave up eight runs while lasting only 1 ⅔ innings his last time out. It would be even better (for the Angels) if 3B Anthony Rendon returned to the lineup today. The Angels may need all the offense they can muster as Alex Cobb has been knocked around for five runs in each of his L2 starts. The Tigers come in having pounded out 10 or more hits in four consecutive games. The Over is 7-2 their last nine, so we’ve got both teams having been involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late. Neither bullpen is good either (something we saw last night). The Over is 46-19-2 in the Angels’ last 67 home games and 7-0 (anywhere) if they scored 5+ runs in their last game. Detroit is 6-0 Over its L6 vs. right-handed starters. 10* Over Tigers/Angels |
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06-18-21 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
8* Over Twins/Rangers (8:05 ET): Even with Jose Berrios starting today’s series opener, Minnesota ought not to be too confident. This club is grossly underachieving in 2021. Priced as a 43-win team, the Twins’ record is just 27-41 as they are one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball. Back to Berrios, the team is 6-0 in his last six starts. But only a couple of those games have been low-scoring. In the four games since Berrios last pitched, the Twins have surrendered 10+ runs twice. Berrios has a 5.75 ERA in four previous starts vs. Texas. I see this one going Over the total. Texas is glad to be back home as they’ve lost 19 of their last 20 road games. They are buried in last place in the AL West with a 25-43 record and considering how there’s already an 8.5-game gap between them and fourth place, expect this to be a cellar dweller for the rest of the season. Prior to yesterday’s off day, the Rangers dropped two in a row in Houston. The Over is 4-0-1 their L5 games, which includes a disastrous outing from tonight’s starter Mike Foltynewicz, who allowed eight runs in 2 ⅔ innings at Dodger Stadium last Friday. The Twins have allowed the most runs in the American League this season. So that’s some home for a Texas lineup that’s only topped four runs one time in its last nine games. I don’t see Berrios pitching as well as he did vs. Houston last Saturday where he allowed just two runs in 7 IP. He still gave up 2 HRs and five of his eight strikeouts came on called strikes. Minnesota, who also had Thursday off, beat Seattle 7-2 the last time they took the field. They are 17-3-1 Over their L21 after allowing two runs or less in the previous game. They are also 4-0 Over following an off day. Foltynewicz has been horrible for the Rangers with a 9.45 ERA and 1.799 WHIP his L3 starts. 8* Over Twins/Rangers |
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06-18-21 | Bolivia v. Chile UNDER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Chile/Bolivia (5:00 ET): It was certainly an “ominous” road to the Copa America tournament, but here we are. Chile is likely thrilled to have shared the points with Argentina in a 1-1 draw in their opener. Meanwhile, Bolivia got buried by Paraguay 3-1 and is looking to bounce back here. I see a pretty low-scoring match taking place on Friday, much lower scoring than Bolivia’s first encounter as all three goals they conceded came after a red card. Chile will be without the lone player that scored for them against Argentina. I’m on the Under here. After a Lionel Messi free kick put Chile in an early 1-0 hole, Eduardo Vargas was able to equalize in the 57th minute, giving La Roja a key point. It was their third consecutive 1-1 draw across all competitions. Certainly, an argument could be made that Chile could have easily lost the opener as Argentina missed several scoring opportunities. But the good news here is that Bolivia lacks the firepower of Argentina. In addition to being without Jaume Cuellar, who drew the red card vs. Paraguay, five other Bolivian players are out due to COVID-19. Thus, I’d be surprised to see Chile concede at all on Friday. At the same time, I don’t see them rolling like Paraguay did in the second half against Bolivia. When these sides met earlier this month in World Cup Qualifying, it was another of those 1-1 draws for Chile. Bolivia has scored only four goals in its last five fixtures with Chile. La Roja is not only going to be without Vargas, their lone goal scorer from the first match, but also Alexis Sanchez as he’s been ruled out for the rest of the group stage. It’s tough to see where the goals come from in this one. 10* Under Chile/Bolivia |
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06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
8* Over D’backs/Giants (3:45 ET): San Francisco is looking to finish off a four-game sweep here. They’ve beaten Arizona by scores of 5-2, 9-8 and 13-7 thus far. There’s been an obvious increase in overall scoring each day and while that may not hold true again this afternoon, I still think this one goes Over the total. Arizona is absolutely atrocious. They’ve lost 22 straight road games, equaling a MLB record. So you know the hitters will be pressing today. It’s not just the road where this team struggles, however. They’ve lost 36 of their last 41 overall games, including 27 of the last 29. There's some optimism for today in that Zac Gallen, who is second on the team in ERA, returns to start Thursday’s game. But after missing more than a month, Gallen may not be as effective as he once was. I certainly see him giving up some runs to a SF lineup that is averaging 9 runs and 13 hits per game in this series. Kevin Gausman has pretty much been “lights out” for the Giants this year. The righty is 7-1 in 13 starts with a 1.43 ERA and 0.771 WHIP. His numbers get even better at home and over his L3 starts. But Arizona has seen him before this year, back on May 25th, so expect them to fare better than they did that first time around. In day games, the D’backs are averaging 4.9 runs per game this season. But over the L6 games, they are allowing an average of 8.5 rpg! That alone would send this one Over the total. 8* Over D’backs/Giants |
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06-16-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Clippers/Jazz (10:05 ET): Just as they did in Round 1, the Clippers have successfully erased a 0-2 series deficit. Although this time, they did so at home as opposed to on the road. Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles saw the Clippers largely dominate throughout as they’ve now outscored the Jazz over the course of the four games. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have each gone for 30+ points in the L2 games. But will they be able to do so again now that the series moves back to Salt Lake City? I don’t think so. Donovan Mitchell, who has six straight 30+ point games for Utah, is also due to “cool off.” So I’m looking Under in Game 5. Note that I had the 1st half Over in Game 4, which cashed, but the full game total stayed Under - just barely (1.5 points). Three-point shooting was good - for both teams - in the games in Los Angeles. Both teams made over 40% of their threes with the Clippers making 46.5%. Those percentages should start to come down. We’re also coming off a game that had a series-high 64 free throws. The previous high was Game 1 with 50 FTs. So count on a reduction there for Game 5. Utah is 6-2 Under this season immediately following a double digit loss. That includes Game 4. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 6-1 Under following a double digit win. Again, Game 4 included. The Clippers are allowing just 107.4 PPG in the playoffs, which is basically right in line with their regular season average. Utah is much more sound defensively at home where they allow only 105.4 PPG. I think the vast majority of signs point to this game being lower-scoring than the last one, which means Under. 10* Under Clippers/Jazz |
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06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
8* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): I had the Under when these two teams played last night. Most probably pushed (closing number was 9.0), but I was fortunate enough to get it at 9.5. I anticipate today’s game to be even lower-scoring. Cleveland got five of its seven runs last night in one inning. As per usual, there was an error involved with Baltimore. They’ve committed six in the two games here at Progressive Field thus far, including FOUR yesterday. That can’t continue even if the team’s road losing streak (now at 17 games) is likely to. The Orioles do have some hope though in that the Indians are not a great offensive ballclub. Seven runs is a lot for them and highly unlikely to be repeated. They had just five hits in Monday’s opener and rank 28th in all of MLB in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, who blanked them for five innings in a 3-1 Baltimore win earlier this month. Akin has a 2.63 ERA in three starts this season, so look for him to give his team a chance here. But Baltimore scoring many runs off Indians’ starter Aaron Civale seems unlikely. First off, the Orioles have scored a grand total of 13 runs during an overall six-game losing streak. They have just 23 total hits during that same span. Civale just threw eight shutout frames vs. Seattle last Friday and gave up just one hit. He finished with 11 strikeouts. Four of his last five starts have stayed Under. (All three Akin starts have gone Under as well). The Under is 20-8-1 the L29 meetings between these teams, including 10-2 here in Cleveland. 8* Under Orioles/Indians |
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06-15-21 | Orioles v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/Indians (7:10 ET): The two starting pitchers for tonight may seem like “question marks” (as far as the Under is concerned), but the Orioles and Indians combined for only seven runs Monday. Cleveland won 4-3, thanks in part to a pair of Baltimore errors in the field. For the Orioles, the loss was nothing new. They are now 0-16 their L16 road games as this season has already started to get away from them. They are 22-43 overall, destined for last place in the division and I rate them as the worst team in the American League. Cleveland is seven games above .500 and second in the Central, although they do have a negative run differential. So I’m not sold on them, especially with an offense that ranks 28th in both batting average and OBP. They had only five hits yesterday. A three-run first inning saw them benefit from a wild pitch and HBP. They only scored in the sixth after two Orioles’ errors. Matt Harvey, who starts today for Baltimore, has struggled of late. But given the Indians’ season-long struggles at the plate, I give him a good shot at resembling the pitcher who produced a 3.60 ERA his first seven starts. Baltimore also had just five hits in Monday’s game. They have scored only 11 runs total in the past five games. So they are an ideal opponent for Cleveland, who had gone Over in six of seven coming into this series, to start going Under. The Tribe is also having to put together a patchwork starting rotation. That means Cal Quantrill is getting the nod Tuesday. He was roughed up badly by Baltimore on June 6th, but I expect him to pitch much better tonight. The Under is 36-17-1 the L54 meetings between these teams. 10* Under Orioles/Indians |
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06-15-21 | Germany v. France UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under France/Germany (3:00 ET): What a matchup we have here in the “Group of Death” as Euro Cup favorites France take on Germany in the opening matchday for Group F. Les Blues are considered the odds on favorite to win this event (+475), although coming out unscathed in a group that includes not only Germany, but Portugal as well, will prove difficult. I like the Under in the first match as France simply doesn’t concede many goals and this should be a supremely tightly contested affair. France was the runner-up in Euro 2016 and won the World Cup three years ago. So they are certainly justified as being the betting favorite for Euro 2020. One would have to go all the way back to the very 1st Euro Cup (in 1960) to find the only time France has dropped an opener in this event. Recent form has been very strong, including four consecutive clean sheets (shutouts). So Germany, who isn’t what they once were, has its work cut out for them on Tuesday. But don’t look for Die Mannschaft to concede many either here. The last World Cup saw Germany go out in the Group stage for the 1st time ever. But possibly forgotten is the fact France wasn’t all that prolific in the Group stage either as they tallied just four goals in three matches. Germany has never lost a Euro Cup opener and has big-time revenge here for five straight losses to Les Blues, including the 2016 semifinal. They will be content to play for a draw here. The problem is that I don’t see Germany scoring. 10* Under France/Germany |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 229 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
8* Under Nets/Bucks (3:05 ET): All three games in this series have gone Under. I think it’s fair to call that “surprising,” given that these were the two highest scoring teams in the league during the regular season. Of course, that meant the oddsmakers were going to post high totals for this series. The O/U line closed 235.5 or higher for each of the three games so far. But the last one really stands out. Game 3 stayed Under by 66 points, a record for the last 30 years of NBA Playoff action. Will there be more scoring Sunday? Obviously. But I don’t think there will be 60+ more pts scored. Take the Under. Milwaukee will be looking to even the series here after winning Game 3 86-83. They just barely failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which was upsetting to me as I laid the points. It is interesting how the line has shifted for Game 4 with Milwaukee now an underdog at home. I think the concern for them has to be the fact that other than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, the rest of the team combined for 18 points and made just eight field goals in Game 3. Will that go up? Again, obviously. But the Bucks are also coming off B2B 86-point games. I just don’t see a “magic” return to the regular season average when so many players are shooting so poorly, especially from three-point range. Even Kevin Durant was only 11 of 28 from the floor in Game 3. Brooklyn is now 12-4 Under its L16 games against teams with winning records and all of them from here on out are going to fall into that situation. The most total points scored in any of the three games was 222 (Game 1) and that was with a blistering pace set in the first half. Again, I know the expectation is for a higher scoring game this afternoon, but making up the discrepancy between Game 3 and the O/U line here seems dicey. 8* Under Nets/Bucks |
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06-12-21 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Astros/Twins (7:15 ET): I continue to believe it’s just a “matter of time” before the Astros overtake the A’s in the AL West. Just look at those respective run differentials as Houston has outscored opponents by 78 runs this season (#3 in MLB) while Oakland is only +7. But for now, the ‘Stros only need to concern themselves with Minnesota, a team that has been surprisingly poor in 2021 and currently occupies last place in the AL Central. Houston won the opener Friday by a score of 6-4. I look for tonight’s game to be lower-scoring. Take the Under. Given manager Dusty Baker’s comments, you might be surprised that the Astros came out ahead Friday. "Everybody was walking around starry-eyed early in the game," Baker said. "You could see they were fatigued.” Baker was referring to the fact his team did not arrive in Minnesota until the early hours of Friday morning after suffering a 12-8 loss to Boston on Thursday. But they’ve now won five of seven and have a hot pitcher on the mound tonight. Luis Garcia is 3-0 his L3 starts with a 0.95 ERA and 0.737 WHIP. All three have also gone Under the total. Minnesota also has a starter going tonight that has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. Jose Berrios’ numbers aren’t quite as good as Garcia’s, but he actually has a 5-0 TSR going back to May 15th. Houston’s bats have been pretty hot the last week, but could cool off for the reasons Baker alluded to in the above comments. Twins’ games are also due for an overall decrease in scoring and I think we’ve got the right pitching matchup for it tonight. Garcia, like Berrios, also has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts and his ERA during that time is 1.86. He’s allowed just six runs in 29 IP. 10* Under Astros/Twins |
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06-12-21 | Jake Collier v. Felipe Colares OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Collier/Felipe (6:10 ET): The very first fight on tonight’s UFC card is likely to go to the scorecards, or at least past the midway mark of the third round. Scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division, we’ve got Jake Collier (12-5 overall, 4-4 UFC) taking on Carlos Felipe (10-1, 2-1). The latter is the favorite. Collier has alternated losses and wins through his first eight UFC fights, never winning or losing two in a row. The bad news for him here is that he’s off a win (last December) over Gian Villante. That was by decision, which is the way three of his last four fights have ended. The exception was 1st round TKO loss to Tom Aspinall last July. That was his debut at heavyweight. Believe it or not, Collier started out as a Middleweight, so he’s moved up TWO weight classes to get here. The odds of him finishing someone like Felipe are very slim. Felipe lost his UFC debut last summer, but has since rebounded with B2B wins over Yorgan De Castro and Justin Tafa. All three UFC fights have gone to the scorecards. Felipe has a good chin, so that’s yet another reason to not expect him to be stopped tonight. At the same time, he doesn’t have much of a finishing game of his own. I think both fighters know their best path to victory is by impressing the judges. Expect this fight to go Over the total. 8* Over Collier/Felipe |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
8* Under Padres/Mets (4:10 ET): These teams have played each other five times this month. None of the games have seen more than eight total runs scored and there have been some excellent individual pitching efforts along the way. The incomparable Jacob deGrom turned in one of them last night. Before leaving due to some tendinitis (he’s believed to be fine), deGrom faced the minimum number of hitters through six innings, allowing just one hit in the process. The Mets won the game 3-2 as they continue to be a very good home team. They are 16-5 in 2021 at Citi Field where they are giving up just 1.9 rpg. The fact we are not seeing many runs scored when these teams hook up should not be a surprise at all. I already mentioned how “stingy” the Mets have been here at home. Overall, they are allowing the second fewest number of runs per game in baseball. San Diego is #1 at 3.4 rpg allowed. There should be two more strong outings from tonight’s starters Joe Musgrove (Padres) and Marcus Stroman (Mets). Both pitched in the previous series between the teams and did well. Musgrove allowed just three runs in five innings (lost to deGrom) while Stroman allowed only an unearned run in 6 ⅔ innings of work. Despite losing to the Mets his last time out, Musgrove is having a great year. He threw the franchise’s no-hitter back on April 9th. There have been only two times when he allowed more than three runs this season and both were against the Giants. The Under easily hit when faced deGrom last weekend as the Mets won 4-0. Stroman is coming off four consecutive quality outings and has the 10th lowest ERA in the National League. The Padres have scored a grand total of four runs in their last three games. Should be another pitcher’s duel on Saturday. 8* Under Padres/Mets |
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06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Suns/Nuggets (10:05 ET): Phoenix has looked dominant through two games of this series. They won by an average of 21 PPG and Chris Paul now looks totally fine after being hampered by a shoulder injury for much of the first round. Since falling behind the Lakers two games to one in the opening round, the Suns have won five in a row with the last four victories all coming by double digits. Right now, you have to consider them the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. But the series is moving to Denver where the Nuggets averaged 115.1 PPG in the regular season. That’s well up from the 101.5 they averaged in the first two games. Take the Over. All five Suns’ starters have finished in double figures both games. Paul led the way in Game 2 with 17 points, 15 assists and zero turnovers. The team averaged 222.5 points in the first two games and is 31 for 72 from three-point range. They are 18-8 Over this season coming off a double digit win and 26-13 Over after scoring 115+ points in their previous game. While you might expect somewhat of a dropoff offensively on the road, Denver has given up 120.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Over is 6-2 in Nuggets’ playoff games as only one time have they allowed fewer than 115 points. Denver’s perceived poor effort in Game 2 led to HC Michael Malone blasting the team in the media. So expect an inspired effort as they face the potential for an 0-3 series hole. MVP Nikola Jokic has done his part, but is getting little in the way of help. At home, that should change. Will Barton is now back, having returned to the lineup in Game 2. All three of the Nuggets’ home playoff games have gone Over. They are 10-4 Over this season following a double digit loss. Though Game 2 stayed Under, scoring picked up a lot in the 2H and nearly sent the game Over. 10* Over Suns/Nuggets |
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06-11-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Over White Sox/Tigers (7:10 ET): We’ve got the best AL Central team against arguably the worst in this three game series. The White Sox have raced to the top of their division with a +89 run differential (which is tied with the Dodgers for the best in all of MLB). They are off a successful series with the Blue Jays where they took two of the three. The series before that saw them take three of four from these Tigers. Detroit responded by taking two of three from Seattle this week, but they still have a -54 YTD run differential. This is an immediate rematch between the two starting pitchers, who just faced one another last week in Chicago. It ended up being a 4-3 final, the Tigers’ lone win of the series, when Lucas Giolito of the White Sox went against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers on June 5th. The Tigers actually homered three times off Giolito, so you would have thought they’d score more than four runs. Their scoring definitely picked up in the Mariners series with 19 runs scored in the three games. Giolito has a 5.11 ERA on the road, so I expect the Tigers to have success against him yet again. The White Sox are averaging 5.3 runs per game on the road this season. I can’t imagine Skubal pitching as well in this spot as he did vs. the Sox last Saturday when he struck out 11 in five innings. He’s also not known for pitching very deep into games. Only twice this season has he gone a full six innings. The Tigers’ bullpen is not good (1.51 WHIP). Back to Giolito, the number of home runs he’s allowed in 12 starts this season (13) is concerning. The White Sox are 8-2 Over as road favorites. 10* Over White Sox/Twins |
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06-11-21 | Mariners v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
8* Over Mariners/Indians (7:10 ET): Even though I won with them on Wednesday, I don’t think Seattle is very good. They lost two of three in Detroit and now own the worst run differential in the American League West. Their overall record (31-33) isn’t that bad, but is being propped up by an AL-high 13 one-run victories. When they had a better record, I considered it fortunate and now we’re seeing the team slip, which I expect will continue. Run differential is typically a strong predictor of future outcomes. Cleveland has also overachieved based on their YTD run differential (-12). They are five games above .500 despite being outscored on the year and only 4.5 games behind the vastly superior White Sox. The Indians are basically who I thought they’d be in 2021, a team that will finish with a winning record but not make the postseason. The team is coming off four straight high scoring games (all Overs), a stretch where they scored 27 runs but allowed 31. They won two and lost two. Aaron Civale starts the season opener for the Tribe. He’s allowed 4 runs in B2B starts and has given up five home runs. His lone career start vs. Seattle, which was earlier this year, didn’t go so well as he surrendered five runs in 6 ⅔ IP. Justin Dunn comes off the DL to start for the Mariners today. He’d previously pitched well, but may struggle here after dealing with a shoulder issue. Considering he’s never gone a full six innings this year, don’t expect Dunn to here. Seattle gives up 5.4 rpg on the road and is 7-1 Over its L8 games in Cleveland. 8* Over Mariners/Indians |
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06-10-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
10* Under Braves/Phillies (1:05 ET): This is the finale of a three-game series. Atlanta won the opener in relative “high-scoring” fashion, 9-5. Philadelphia countered yesterday with a 2-1 win on a Luke Williams walk-off HR. It was Williams’ 1st career HR and couldn’t have come at a better time for the Phillies as they’d been held scoreless for 8+ innings and had only four hits for the game. Now, instead of facing a potential sweep at the hands of the Braves, the home team can win the series on Thursday. They are 6-5 against Atlanta this year with four of the five games here in Philly having stayed Under. I like this game to stay Under as well. Phils starter Zack Wheeler is a big reason why. Wheeler is having an outstanding 2021 thus far with a 2.51 ERA and 0.935 WHIP in 12 starts. You’d think he deserves a better team start record than 6-6. The issue has been that the Phillies have scored three runs or fewer in half of Wheeler’s starts this season. Still, you can count on him to hold up his end of the bargain. He has delivered six consecutive quality outings (1.65 ERA), meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or less. He has an amazing 59-6 KW ratio during that time. Atlanta faced Wheeler twice earlier this year. When they did so here at Citizens Bank Park, they did not score against him. In fact, they got just one hit in seven innings. The game ended up 4-0 in favor of the Phillies. The opener of this series is the only time in five games at Philly this season where the Braves have scored more than two runs. The Phillies have scored four runs or less in four of the five games. Ian Anderson is coming off B2B rough outings for Atlanta. However, five of the six starts previous to that were quality ones. 10* Under Braves/Phillies |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 222 | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
10* Over Nuggets/Suns (9:35 ET): Early in the second half of Game 1, Phoenix looked to be in some trouble. They were down 10 and Chris Paul’s shoulder was seemingly an issue again. Then, out of nowhere, it wasn’t an issue any more. Paul’s shot making was the catalyst for a 34-9 Suns run that gave them a 122-105 win and cover (as six-point chalk) Monday night. I apologize to everyone that was with me on the Nuggets, but for 2.5 quarters they definitely looked like the right side. Nikola Jokic certainly picked a bad time to go cold, a day before winning the league’s MVP Award. I don’t think he’ll go 10 of 23 from the floor again in Game 2. Four Suns scored 20 or more points in Game 1. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges joined Paul in the mix. The team shot 54% overall and finished with a playoff-high 122 points. But the Suns defense has been the real story as they are allowing just 98.6 points per game in the playoffs and 42.2% shooting. That is something I can’t see continuing. They were a good defensive team in the regular season, but even still they gave up an average of 108.5 PPG. Facing two banged up opponents thus far in the postseason has been a bit of a break. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Suns allow more than 109 points for the first time (in the playoffs) in Game 2. The Over is 23-10-1 in Phoenix’s last 34 games. Denver is now 7-1 Over in the playoffs. The last three times these teams have met, not surprisingly, the game has gone Over with 256, 232 and 227 total points scored. Denver is 21-8 Over following a SU loss, including 10-3 if it was by double digits. Like I said earlier, Jokic is very likely to shoot better tonight than he did in Game 1. The Nuggets average 115.4 PPG for the season. Look for their scoring to rise in Game 2 (they'll DEFINITELY attempt more than SIX free throws) while Phoenix likely comes close to matching their Game 1 output. 10* Over Nuggets/Suns |
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06-09-21 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* Under Indians/Cardinals (8:15 ET): Cleveland may have won 10-1 yesterday, but this is a light-hitting American League team that loses the DH for this series. In other words, do not expect them to score 10 runs again tonight. Four of those 10 runs scored last night came in the top of the ninth when the game was out of hand. It marked the second time in three games the Tribe scored 10 runs after they had done so only once in the first 55 games of the year. This team is 28th in MLB in batting average and 29th in OBP. Meanwhile, St. Louis is in a terrible way right now as they’re on a six-game losing streak, their longest in four years. During the six-game slide, they have scored a total of just 19 runs. Seven of those came in one inning and that was the only game during the losing streak they scored more than four times. The Cardinals had no answers at the plate last night against Shane Bieber (few do) and tonight they will face a rookie Jean Carlos Mejia, who has worked as a starter and out of the bullpen in 2021. In four total appearances, which have lasted eight innings, Mejia has yet to allow a single run. Adam Wainwright will try to stop the bleeding for his team. Like I said earlier, Cleveland is not a strong offensive club, so expect Wainwright to have a solid outing here. He has a 2.62 ERA and 1.00 WHIP at home where the Under is 6-1 so far this season. I actually successfully faded him in his last start, but he still delivered a quality outing. He allowed three runs over seven innings. His previous three starts here at Busch Stadium all saw him go 8+ innings and allow two or fewer runs. This promises to be a low-scoring game Wednesday night and the number is already on the move. 10* Under Indians/Cardinals |
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06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox (8:10 ET): We’ve got another matchup of top American League teams on Monday, though I think this particular series opener is going Under. Playing it’s “home games” in both Dunedin, FL and Buffalo, NY this season, Toronto is averaging an AL-high 5.6 runs per game there this season. But the road has been a bit of a different story as their scoring average drops to 4.4 rpg. They’ll be facing a very strong starter in Carlos Rodon on Monday. Even after his worst start to date (allowed 3 HRs vs. Cleveland), Rodon still has a 1.98 ERA and 0.823 WHIP here in 2021. Rodon has been especially dominant at Guaranteed Rate Field where his WHIP is a miniscule 0.562. That’s pretty filthy. What was so shocking about the poor performance against Cleveland on 5/31 is that Rodon had previously no-hit the Tribe. However, that no-hitter came here at home while the poor outing was on the road. Still, the bottom line here is that Rodon has allowed 1 or 0 ER in seven of his nine starts this season. The Under is 6-3 with him on the mound. Road teams average only 3.0 rpg here on the South Side (hitting only .204). The White Sox just took three of four from Detroit over the weekend and the Under hit in all three wins. They are favored again here. Toronto had a bit of a rough home series with Houston where they lost two of three. They turn to Robbie Ray on Monday, hoping he can replicate his last outing where he held Miami to one run over six innings. Ray has a 69-14 KW rate this season and also recently held a strong Tampa Bay offense to one run in seven innings. Chicago has gone Under the last six games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Blue Jays/White Sox |
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06-08-21 | Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* Over Dodgers/Pirates (7:05 ET): On paper, this looks to be a colossal mismatch with my #1 rated team in the power rankings (Dodgers) taking on the #30 team (Pirates). But as is evident by the fact they are only in third place in their own division, the Dodgers cannot necessarily always be trusted. What I do trust them to do tonight, however, is score some runs. They’ve put up an average of 6.3 over their L7 games (despite hitting only .206!) and the Over is 6-1 the last 7 times Tuesday starter Walker Buehler has been on the mound. Pittsburgh saw a rare three-game win streak end Sunday when they lost 3-1 to the Marlins. It figured to be a long year in the Steel City and the Pirates are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They’ve got the worst run differential in baseball (-75) and predictably find themselves in the basement in the NL Central. While they are scoring the fewest number of runs per game in MLB, don’t discount the fact they are facing the NL’s top offense in this series. Nine of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have gone Over, though they haven’t met since 2019. The Pirates had gone Over in five straight before Sunday’s loss. Ke’Bryan Hayes is back in the lineup and that played a role in me cashing the Over in their game Friday vs. the Marlins. Buehler is working on a stretch of four consecutive quality starts, but has allowed 3 HR in the last two. He could be due for a bad outing. So too could Pirates starter JT Brubaker, who did throw six shutout innings vs. Colorado (on 5/29), but had previously given up 12 runs in B2B starts. The Dodgers are 6-0 Over following an off day. 8* Over Dodgers/Pirates |
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06-08-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* Over Astros/Red Sox (7:10 ET): Two of the American League’s top teams square off for the second time in 10 days. The previous series was played in Houston where the Astros took three of four games. Boston avoided getting swept with a win in the finale and hasn’t lost since. They swept the rival Yankees over the weekend, then beat Miami on Monday. Now they must deal with a third different opponent in as many days. That’s tough. My expectation is that this game will go Over the total. We’ve got a battle of southpaws for tonight’s series opener. Framber Valdez is set to make his third start of 2021 for the Astros. In the little we’ve seen of him, Valdez has looked sharp. Especially when he faced the Red Sox on June 2nd. He held them to one run and five hits over seven innings that day plus he struck out 10 batters. But Boston’s bats should do better the second time facing Valdez. The key is the game is in Fenway Park where they average 5.2 runs per game while batting a collective .270. Martin Perez also pitched well in the previous series between the teams. He was the starter when the Red Sox won the final game. Over 7 ⅔ IP, he didn’t allow a single run. But just like with Valdez, I expect the opposing lineup to make the necessary adjustments the second time around. Houston is averaging 5.4 rpg on the road. In six starts at home, Perez has a 4.03 ERA and 1.448 WHIP. The previous start against the Astros was arguably his best of 2021. I don’t see him coming close to duplicating it. Houston has scored five or more runs in six of its last nine games. Boston has scored that many in every game during the current win streak. 8* Over Astros/Red Sox |
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06-05-21 | Augusto Sakai v. Jair Rozenstruik OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -198 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (9:35 ET): We’ve got a Heavyweight Main Event at Fight Night 189 with August Sakai (15-2 overall, 4-1 in UFC) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-2, 5-2). Both fighters are in off a loss. Sakai fell in the Main Event of Fight Night 176 last September as he was TKO’d in the fifth round by Alistair Overeem. That marked the first time in Sakai’s entire career that he was stopped. Rozenstruik has lost two of his last three fights and was beaten Ciryl Gane (via decision) back in February. I took the Over (1.5 rounds) in that Overeem-Sakai fight, which obviously turned out to be an easy winner. It did end up being the first time Sakai was ever stopped, but said stoppage didn’t come until the “championship rounds,” well after the O/U line had passed. Just to clarify this one, it’s the same thing as we only need the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. That seems pretty easy considering four of Sakai’s last five fights have made it to Round 3. So have 7 of his last 10. Rozenstruik actually owns a 5th round KO of Overeem back in 2019, but he’s lost two of three since. Unlike Sakai, most of Rozenstruik’s fights have ended rather quickly, but I think it’s notable his last one marked the first time EVER a decision had to be rendered. In my analysis of the Overeem-Sakai fight, I noted that unlike most heavyweights, Sakai doesn’t typically look to end things with “one punch.” He’s a patient and more technical striker than Rozenstruik, who will have the power edge and look to use leg kicks. But he’s not all that accurate and averages just seven strike attempts per minute. In a combined 131 minutes of UFC action, these two have combined for ONE takedown! So expect a SLOW start to this one and for the fight to easily surpass the O/U line. 7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (1.5 Rounds) |
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06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 239.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Bucks/Nets (7:35 ET): This seems like it will be the “marquee” series in the second round of the NBA Playoffs as you’ve got the team that finished first in the Eastern Conference each of the L2 seasons (Milwaukee) taking on this year’s favorite to win the NBA Finals (Brooklyn). Neither team finished first in the East this season, but the winner of this series would be favored over the top seeded Sixers. The expectation is obviously for a high-scoring Game 1, but I think the total is too high here. Take the Under. The expectation for a high-scoring contest is not without merit here as these were the top two scoring offenses during the regular season. But even so, Brooklyn games “only” averaged 233.3 points per game while Milwaukee games were at 232.5 PPG. In the first round playoff series against Miami, the Bucks allowed an average of 98.0 PPG. While repeating that vs. the Nets will be next to impossible, the Bucks did hold the Heat below 40% shooting in the four-game sweep. Brooklyn is 2-0 Under this season when playing with three or more days rest. It’s been even longer since Milwaukee last took the court, exactly one week to be specific, so do not be surprised if they come out a bit “rusty” for Game 1. In the last round, both teams turned in their lowest scoring performances in Game 1. The Bucks-Heat game went to overtime and still ended up just 109-107. Brooklyn had to come from behind to beat Boston 104-93, which was both its lowest scoring game and best defensive effort of that series. 10* Under Bucks/Nets |
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06-04-21 | A's v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* Over A’s/Rockies (8:40 ET): Oakland leads the AL West (despite a drastically inferior run differential compared to Houston) with a 33-25 record. They head to Colorado off B2B wins where they scored a combined 18 runs. With this series being in a National League park, the A’s lose the DH, but if there’s one place where that shouldn’t matter it’s here at Coors Field where visiting teams are averaging basically 5.0 runs per game. That’s actually a lower number than past years, so don’t be surprised if it starts to go up. The Rockies are averaging 6.0 rpg at home this season and just hung 11 runs on the board yesterday in a win over a different AL West team (Texas). That was Colorado’s fourth straight win, but there’s no denying it figures to be a tough season in the NL West as three teams (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) have already separated themselves. Still, the Rockies can try and “clean up” in these non-division games. They are 5-0 vs. the AL West this season and 19-12 overall at home (just 4-22 on the road!) Oakland is 16-8 on the road this season, 7-0 following an off-day and 4-0 off a shutout win. Considering they beat Seattle 6-0 on Wednesday (my AL West Game of the Month!), they probably feel pretty good about their chances (given the above trends) tonight. But Friday starter Frankie Montas isn’t Sean Manaea, who gave them a dominant outing 48 hours ago. Montas has allowed four runs in B2B starts. He’ll be opposed here by Jon Gray, who has seen six of his last seven starts go Over. So will this one. 8* Over A’s/Rockies |
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06-04-21 | Marlins v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Over Marlins/Pirates (7:05 ET): Miami is stuck in a terrible rut right now as they’ve now dropped six in a row after a 5-3 loss here in Pittsburgh last night. Runs have been hard to come by as they’ve scored more than three just twice in the past eight games. For much of the season, they’ve been the lone NL East team with a positive run differential, but that number is now down to just +3 for the year. They are giving up 4.2 runs per game on the road, which is a full run more than what they are allowing at home. Pittsburgh not only got a win yesterday, but they also got Ke’Bryan Hayes back in the lineup. The third baseman was supposed to be the key cog in the lineup this season, but he’s been out ever since the second game. Hayes paid immediate dividends in his return Thursday, going 2 for 4 with a triple and he scored a run. The Pirates still aren’t going to be very good in 2021, but at least they’re more exciting with Hayes in the lineup and they should probably score more runs as well. The fact they’ve allowed the fourth most runs in the NL so far is still a problem though. The Marlins have Starling Marte back in their lineup and he’s gone 6 for 18 with four doubles since returning. I think that tonight is when this offense finally gets on track as they’ll face right-hander Mitch Keller, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.688 WHIP for the Pirates in 10 starts. Those numbers get even worse here at PNC Park. Twice in four home starts Keller has given up seven runs in 3 ⅓ innings. Starting here for Miami is Cody Poteet, who is off his worst start of the year as he gave up five runs in a loss at Boston last weekend. Pittsburgh is on a 22-9-3 Over run in the second game of a series. 8* Over Marlins/Pirates |
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06-04-21 | Indians v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Indians/Orioles (7:05 ET): Two teams that have put up 6+ runs in B2B games start a series Friday night in Camden Yards as last place Baltimore hosts Cleveland. The Tribe hasn’t played since Tuesday as Wednesday’s series finale with the White Sox got rained out and Thursday was an off-day. Baltimore also had yesterday off after a 2-0 start to June. Certainly, the O’s are hoping this month will go better than May when they went 5-23 including 14 straight losses. After the off-day, look for these two offenses (neither of which is very good) to “cool off.” Take the Under in this one. Jean Carlos Mejia will make his first career big league start today for Cleveland. He probably won’t be asked to go long. But considering Baltimore has hit just .219 its L7 games, Mejia should find success while he’s in there. Before beating Minnesota 7-4 and 6-3 to open June, the Orioles had scored two runs or fewer in five of their previous six games. The L2 games are their highest scoring since a 12-9 loss to Washington back on May 22nd. The Under is 13-4-1 in Cleveland’s last 18 visits to Baltimore. The Indians are one of the weaker offensive clubs in the American League, if not in all of MLB. They are bottom three in baseball in both team batting average and on base percentage. Tonight, they face Keegan Akin, whose first start of 2021 saw him go up against the White Sox and allow just one run (a solo HR) in 4 ⅓ innings. I can’t see Cleveland scoring six runs for a third consecutive game, not when they only average 3.9 per game on the road. The Under is 9-3 in Baltimore’s past 12 series openers. 8* Under Indians/Orioles |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 208 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Suns/Lakers (10:35 ET): This has been a low-scoring series so far with four of the five games going Under and the one that went Over just barely crept past the total because of lots of free throws in the final two minutes. The five games have averaged just 199.2 points, yet the O/U lines have remained fairly consistent since Game 1. This is an elimination game for the Lakers, who were blown out in Game 5, 115-85. Game 2 (the lone Over of the series) is the only time in the series where the losing team scored 100 points. Gonna keep rolling with the Under, which I cashed in on back in Game 4. I’m 2 for 2 in this series, not only cashing the Under in Game 4 but the Lakers in Game 2. I do have to say that I’m surprised to see the Lakers down three games to two, especially considering they were seemingly in complete control following a 109-95 win in Game 3. But then Anthony Davis got hurt and nothing has been the same. In the six quarters they have been without Davis, the team has totaled only 127 points. That’s really bad. The most points the Lakers have scored in any game this series is 109. Three times they’ve been held below 100. Now one of the Suns’ key players (Chris Paul) is also injured, though he’s been playing through it. But Paul has obviously been ineffective, shooting just 40% in the series. The Lakers were the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and before Game 5, Phoenix had yet top 102 points in any game in the series. So with Davis questionable to play in Game 6, the way the best chance for the Lakers to stay alive is their defense. They are 15-5 Under after allowing 115+ points this season and 29-9 Under vs. teams that are .500 or better. 8* Under Suns/Lakers |
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06-03-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz (9:35 ET): So the Over is 4-0 in this series. I had the Over in the last game and though it looked like a “surefire” winner after three quarters (score was 100-87 Utah), I had to end up “sweating things out” thanks to the Jazz going relatively cold in the fourth. Eventually though, the game did go Over as the Jazz prevailed 120-113 (total was 225.5) to take a 3-1 series lead. The West’s top seed has now taken the last three games after being upset here at home in Game 1. The oddsmakers keep moving up the O/U line and I think Game 5 is when we finally have an Under. The big difference in Game 4 was three-point shooting. Utah made 50% (17 of 34) while Memphis made 28.6% (10 of 35). Will we see those numbers even out a bit tonight? Probably. But I don’t see the Grizzlies improving that much being they’re on the road. They shot just below 35% from three-point range the first two games in Utah. This is not a particularly prolific three-point shooting team either. Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, they have taken the fewest number of attempts from behind the arc. That’s right on par with the regular season when they were 25th (out of 30 teams) in # of three-point attempts. Utah leads the league in 3PA this season, but they are not likely to hit 50% again as they did in Game 4. Jordan Clarkson went 4 of 9 from deep in the last game en route to 24 points. He’d previously gone 3 of 21 on 3PA in this series. These are two top six teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It’s time we had an Under in this series. 10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz |
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06-02-21 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 112-129 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
8* Under Wizards/Sixers (7:05 ET): I also like Game 5 to go Under the total. Yes, I know three of the first four games have gone Over the total. But Game 4 was the first time we didn’t see red-hot shooting from either side, even though three of the four quarters saw 59 or more total points scored. The Embiid injury is the big story. The 76ers shot just 41.7% in Game 4 compared to 58.6% in Game 3 and 55.7% in Game 2. While they figure to improve (from Game 4), with or without Embiid I don’t see them getting back to the level of Games 2 and 3. Washington has struggled with its three-point shooting all series. They did make 9 of 24, which is a reasonable percentage, in Game 4. But that was also after going 10 of 57 from behind the arc in the previous two games. Again, the Wizards’ struggles offensively shouldn’t be that surprising given Philly allowed the second fewest number of points per possession in the regular season. Russell Westbrook, hobbled by an ankle injury, has been an albatross when it comes to three-point shooting. He’s just 3 for 15 in the series. I also don’t expect the teams to combine for a somewhat preposterous 76 free throws in this game. That was the number in Game 4, a byproduct of Washington continually sending Ben Simmons to the line. In the previous three games, there were never more than 49 total free throws attempted. Even if the Wizards choose to keep sending Simmons to the line, I don’t see the same kind of productions from the charity stripe here. Washington made 33 FT’s in Game 4! That’s 13 more than they average per game for the season. 8* Under Wizards/Sixers |
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06-01-21 | Tigers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Under Tigers/Brewers (7:40 ET): It’s dueling lefties in Tuesday’s game between the Tigers and Brewers, two teams that don’t hit very well. Throw in the loss of the DH for the road team in this series and you’ve got all the makings of a low-scoring game. The Brew Crew won Monday’s opener, 3-2, and that game went 10 innings. With the pitcher having to bat, Detroit had issues at the plate (more so than usual) yesterday. Manager AJ Hinch actually pulled starter Tyler Alexander after just one inning as the Tigers had the bases loaded when it was time for him to bat. Later in the game, reliever Rony Garcia came up to the plate and struck out. Strong play on the Under here. The Tigers have scored the fewest number of runs this year among American League teams and remember that’s mostly with a DH in the lineup. Tonight they’ll have to contend with Eric Lauer, who will make his fourth start of the season for Milwaukee. The southpaw was sharp his last time out, holding San Diego to just one run and four hits over six innings. The Padres have scored the second most runs in the National League, so this is a far more favorable matchup for Lauer. The Brewers have the lowest team batting average (.210) in the NL and like the Tigers are bottom five in both on base percentage and slugging. So look for Matthew Boyd to get back on track for Detroit. Tuesday’s starter has struggled recently, but had allowed 2 ER or fewer in each of his first seven starts of 2021. The Tigers have one of the highest Under percentages in all of baseball (63.5% of all games) and they are 6-0-1 Under their last seven. 10* Under Tigers/Brewers |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): All three games in this series have gone Over with the last two seeing 270 and 232 combined points. There’s really no reason to expect there won’t be a lot of scoring tonight in Game 4. The last game saw Memphis shoot just 43% overall from the field and 31.7% from three. Yet they still scored 111 points. That’s slightly below their season average. You have to expect a little better offense from the home team in Game 4, especially since the Over is 7-0 the L7 times they’ve been a playoff underdog. Utah has to feel good about itself seeing as they won Game 3 by 10 points despite taking 19 fewer shot attempts. They were dominated on the offensive glass, 16-7, but Memphis only ended up making three more shots than the Jazz did. It’s something to watch here as the Grizzlies should be more efficient if they are able to control the glass again. It should be noted that Memphis is shooting a solid 47% for the series. Utah gives up 110.1 PPG on the road, up from 105.1 PPG allowed at home. But regardless of the fact Memphis is likely to improve at the offensive end tonight, the Jazz are going to “get theirs” too. They’ve averaged 123.7 PPG in the three games and they’ve made 19 three pointers in each of the last two games. They are above 45% from behind the arc in their two wins. The Over is 6-0 in Utah’s last six games as a playoff favorite. The Over is also 7-1 the last eight meetings between these teams. Only two of those eight meetings saw less than 230 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies |
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05-31-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Under 76ers/Wizards (7:05 ET): It certainly appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this 76ers-Wizards series as top-seeded Philly looks to become the second team in the East (Milwaukee) to sweep their way into the second round. Truthfully, the Wizards didn’t stand much of a chance here with the 30th ranked (that’s last!) scoring defense in the NBA. But you would have hoped for a bit of a better effort in Game 3 on their home floor, especially since Russell Westbrook ended up playing. Instead, what Washington got was a 132-103 loss in Game 3. For the second straight game, Philadelphia shot the lights out. After making 55.7% of their field goal attempts in Game 2, they were at 58.6% in Game 3. They even made 17 of 33 attempts from three-point range, which was way up from the previous two games. In fact, the Sixers made just 19 threes COMBINED in Games 1 & 2. While Washington’s defense may not give you much confidence, expect the Sixers’ shooting to fall off a bit here in Game 4. It’s only natural. The Wizards’ shooting in the last two games has been less than desirable as they are just below 40% overall and a horrendous 10 of 57 from behind the three-point line. While there should be some expectation for improvement there, keep in mind that Philadelphia was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency and clearly is not having much difficulty stopping the Wiz in this series. They’ve allowed an average of just 105.3 PPG in the series and this is the highest O/U line yet. 10* Under 76ers/Wizards |
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05-31-21 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Rays/Yankees (1:05 ET): It’s been a phenomenal month for the Rays as they’ve gone 21-6 in May and won 15 of their last 16 games. However, they did drop two of three games to New York three weeks ago. That was after sweeping a three-game series here at Yankee Stadium last month. Going into that last visit to the Bronx, the Rays were on a three-game losing streak. This time, they’re on a four-game win streak and have seized first place in the AL East with a 34-20 overall record. No team in the AL East has allowed fewer runs this season than have the Yankees, who are giving up just 3.6 per game. Only four teams in all of baseball, three of them from the National League, are allowing a fewer number of rpg. However, the Yanks just shockingly dropped three straight games in Detroit while scoring a total of five runs. If they thought scoring runs on the Tigers was difficult, then I’m not sure what to say here as the Rays are also top 10 in MLB in run suppression. NY was 2 for 25 w/ RISP in the last series. Rich Hill starts the opener for the Rays. Over his previous six starts, he’s held opposing hitters to a .134 batting average while posting a 1.26 ERA. That includes a win over the Yankees, who he held scoreless for 6 ⅔ innings. Last time out, Hill struck out 13 in eight innings of work, although that ended up being a 2-1 loss to the Royals. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has also been outstanding this year. I do think their hitters are due to cool off though. Since May 6th, the team is batting .321 w/ RISP. Jameson Taillon threw five shutout innings his last time out for the Yanks and is up for the challenge. 10* Under Rays/Yankees |
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05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Suns/Lakers (3:30 ET): The Lakers came into this series as the favorite, despite being the 7-seed, and have begun to assert themselves by winning the last two games. Keep in mind they’re not just the favorites to advance to the second round, they also have the shortest odds to win the Western Conference. Anthony Davis is listed as questionable to play in Game 4 Sunday (sprained knee), but has said there’s “no chance” he sits out. For Phoenix, Chris Paul is still dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of practice Saturday. He’s clearly not himself and thus the Suns have really struggled offensively in the series. I think those struggles continue here on Sunday. Take the Under. If not for some questionable fouling down the stretch in Game 2, it is likely that the Suns would have been held below 100 points in all three games of the series. They are averaging just 98.7 points in the three games with Game 2’s 102 being the high-water mark. Game 2 is the only one of the three to go Over, and again there was some foolish fouling by the Lakers near that end of that one that allowed it to go Over. We’ve yet to see a game with more than 211 total points scored in this series. Given that the Lakers are #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the low-scoring should not be all that surprising. Then you have to throw in the fact they are facing an opponent whose PG is clearly injured. Paul is averaging only 6.7 PPG on 38.1% shooting in the three games so far and the Suns’ offensive efficiency plummets with him on the court. There’s also now too much pressure on Devin Booker to score. The Lakers are the only team in the league who have gone Under more than 60% of the time and the Under is 27-9 when they face a team that has a winning record. 8* Under Suns/Lakers |
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05-30-21 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
10* Under Orioles/White Sox (2:10 ET): The situation in Baltimore has gotten quite dire as the Orioles have now lost 12 in a row after being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader here in Chicago. Meanwhile, things are looking rather good for the White Sox, who lead the AL Central with a 31-20 record. Their +78 run differential is the best in the American League and second best in all of MLB (San Diego). As for the Orioles, their run differential (-65) is the AL’s worst and second worst in all of MLB (Pittsburgh). So it’s teams at very opposite ends of the spectrum here and odds are that the home team finishes the sweep Sunday. Yesterday’s doubleheader saw 15 total runs scored in 13 innings. Only five of those runs came from the Orioles, who have now been held to four or less in six straight games. I do not anticipate them doing well today against White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, who is coming off B2B strong outings. Giolito has also allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. The O’s have hit just .222 in games vs. right-handed starters in 2021. With the White Sox so heavily favored today, odds are that we won’t have to play the bottom of the ninth. That can be key when playing the Under. Also key is the Chicago bats hopefully not going “off” against Baltimore starter Keegan Akin, who will be making his first start of the season. Akin is a lefty that the White Sox have never faced before. So that’s a bit of an edge. Akin has made some appearances out of the bullpen this season and has 10 strikeouts in 10 ⅓ IP. The Under is 4-0 in Chicago’s L4 games vs. a southpaw starter. 10* Under Orioles/White Sox |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 228.5 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (4:05 ET): These teams have now played FOUR straight games, going back to the regular season finale. All four games have gone Over the total. Exceptional shooting - from one or both teams - has typically “ruled the day” every game. Game 3 of this first round series saw Denver make 20 of its 38 three-point attempts (52.6%) en route to a 120-115 victory. What was somewhat amazing about that win is that the Nuggets had 16 fewer shot attempts in the game. But the aforementioned 3-point shooting and a +14 edge in FT attempts (+11 in makes) gave the road team the victory and 2-1 series lead. I missed on the Under in Game 3, but will come back with it here. I don’t think Denver is going to shoot THAT well again from three-point range. Portland isn’t very good defensively, but even they are allowing just 37.4% shooting from three-point range for the season. Denver shoots 37.8% for the year. Overall, the Nuggets have shot 50% in the three games. I don’t think that can be sustained, especially on the road. Austin Rivers probably isn’t scoring 21 points again either. Portland shot 48% from three-point range in the first two games before “cooling off” and going just 14 of 45 in Game 3. Damian Lillard is averaging 37.7 PPG In this series, but his three-point shooting in particular cooled off considerably in the last game. He didn’t get much help either. You have to believe we’re due for a “lower-scoring game” in this series. This is Denver’s first 4-game Over streak since mid-January. For Portland, it’s just the third time this year they’ve gone Over in four straight. They’ve never gone Over in five straight games and neither has Denver. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers |
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05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 102 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
8* Under Rangers/Mariners (10:10 ET): Seattle took yesterday’s series opener, 5-0, a much needed result for them after they’d dropped seven of their previous nine. As bad as things have been in the Pacifc Northwest recently, Texas is the team in last place in the AL West as they’ve now dropped six of nine. During that stretch, the Rangers have been shutout three times (including yday). However, if they can take solace in one thing it’s that the Mariners are dead last in MLB in both batting average and slugging percentage. As a team, the M’s came into yesterday’s game batting just .178 at home. That’s horrendous! Well, not if you’re Jordan Lyles, the Texas starter for Friday’s game. Lyles has generally been okay for the Rangers this season, allowing 3 ER or less in seven of his 10 starts. He had one horrible outing on April 26th, but he was making his second consecutive start against the same team (Angels). Seattle did not face Lyles in the previous series between the teams. Lyles has been a dog on the ML in every start thus far, so a 5-4 TSR is actually good. The Over is 3-0 in the previous three starts of Seattle’s Justus Sheffield. But I look for that to change here. Yes, he did struggle when he faced the Rangers on the road earlier this year. But Sheffield has been sharp each of the last two starts at home where he’s gone six innings both times and allowed just 2 ER total (on just 7 hits). Texas came into yday hitting just .200 over its last seven games, so this should be another low-scoring game between familiar foes. 8* Under Rangers/Mariners |
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05-28-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
10* Over Cardinals/D’backs (9:40 ET): Embattled Arizona has now dropped 11 straight following last night’s 5-4 loss in extra innings. They were forced into making a pitching change just hours before the start of Thursday’s game and unfortunately Jon Duplantier (making his 1st big league appearance since 2019) could not get the job done as he allowed four runs over 4 ⅔ IP. The D’backs did rally to tie the game in the later innings, but it was all for naught. That result comes on the heels of another 5-4 loss the previous day where they BLEW a 4-0 lead and left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. Meanwhile, St. Louis has now won B2B games following their own tough stretch. But I don’t think they can be trusted today as they send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo has not been good in 2021 with an 8.18 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in his three starts. The Cardinals have lost them all. Going back to last season, the Cards have lost ALL EIGHT games that Oviedo has started. So Arizona has some hope here. They are averaging a solid 4.0 runs per game. Given how many they typically allow, a season average day at the plate would suffice for how I’m playing this game. Madison Bumgarner will get the baseball for the D’backs, trying to end this long losing streak. His best days are clearly behind him though. MadBum just allowed a season-high seven runs his last time out. While that was at Coors Field, the Over is 3-0 in his three home starts as well. Bumgarner had been pitching better before that start in Denver, but don’t forget he also began 2021 by allowing 5+ ER in each of his first three outings. I think both teams are due to “break out” at the plate tonight. 10* Over Cardinals/D’backs |
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05-28-21 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 11-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/Indians (7:10 ET): Toronto finds itself in somewhat of an unenviable spot today as it visits Cleveland. They’ve lost seven of nine and just split a doubleheader with the Yankees on Thursday. Cleveland comes in having taken three of four from a team they always seem to dominate (Detroit) and is now six games over .500. This will be the first meeting between these teams in almost two years and I expect it to be a low-scoring one as each of the last three Indians’ games have seen seven or fewer total runs scored. Meanwhile, there were only 10 total runs scored in yday’s Jays-Yankees twinbill. Cleveland does not hit particularly well as they came into yday’s game with a .215 team batting average. They were actually shutout 1-0 in a loss Wednesday before bouncing back to win 5-2 yday afternoon. Over the L8 games, the Tribe has scored 28 total runs and been shutout twice. So expect Toronto south Hyun-Jin Ryu to pitch well Friday as he makes his 10th start of the season. Ryu already has a solid 2.53 ERA and 1.031 WHIP this season. He’s been especially good in his L3 starts with a 1.31 ERA & 0.919 WHIP. Cleveland is going with Eli Morgan, a top prospect that will be making his big league debut. The “unknown factor” certainly is in Morgan’s favor Friday. The Blue Jays scored only five runs in 14 innings of baseball on Thursday and one thing you know you’re going to get with the Indians is solid pitching. Visiting teams are batting a collective .215 at Progressive Field this season and not much better overall. Of course, there’s the issue I brought up earlier and that’s the Indians don’t hit well themselves. 10* Under Blue Jays/Indians |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 228 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (10:05 ET): These teams have now played each other THREE straight games, starting with the regular season finale. That finale was won by Portland, 132-116, allowing them to secure the 6-seed and face Denver in this first round series. The Nuggets chose not to play their starters for most of that finale, perhaps hoping to avoid the Blazers, but they got them here anyway due to the 4th seeded Clippers also losing on the last day of the regular season. As for the two games that matter more, the Nuggets and Blazers are all tied in this series after Denver won big (128-109) in Gm 2. All three of these games have gone Over the total. I took the Nuggets in Game 2 partly because I expected them to rectify the discrepancy in three-point shooting we saw back in Game 1. That wound up happening, although Portland was still better from downtown - 48.5% to 42.9%. The Blazers are 35 of 73 (47.9%) from behind the arc in the two games, which is going to be a difficult percentage to maintain even as the series shifts to their home court. Damian Lillard made an incredible EIGHT three-pointers in the 1H alone in Game 2, which was a playoff record for a half and thus certainly isn’t going to be repeated. Though they struggled from downtown in Game 1, Denver is above 50% overall shooting for the series. Again, that’s going to be really hard to maintain. As you’d expect, the Nuggets’ scoring average dips by a few points when they’re on the road. Fortunately for them, they also allow slightly less PPG on the road. When it comes to stopping Lillard, Denver may have found an answer with Aaron Gordon, who defended the All-Star well in the 2H of Monday’s game. Unfortunately, with Will Barton still listed as “questionable” (as of press time), the Nuggets may still be w/o their two primary ball-handlers. The Under is on a 12-4 run in Denver playoff games when the series is tied (as it is here). Portland is 6-0 Under off their previous six double digit losses. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 109-128 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (10:05 ET): I also like the Under in Game 2 as neither team is likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, in particular Portland when it comes to three pointers. Something I failed to mention in the other writeup is that Denver attempted only eight free throws in Game 1 (made just four!). Expect more production there. That may sound like an odd way to begin a writeup on the Under, but while the Nuggets are likely to be more productive from the charity stripe in this game, their overall FG% is likely to fall. As I said in the other writeup, they are without primary ballhandlers Murray and Barton. But the fortunate thing for Denver is that Portland isn’t going to be as hot from three-point range as they were in Game 1. The Blazers made 19 threes in Game 1 and shot 47.5% from behind the arc. Those numbers are well above their season averages. Another reason to like the Under is that Denver plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire NBA. They are bottom five in adjusted tempo. Only the Clippers, Heat and Knicks average a fewer number of possessions per game. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets |
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05-22-21 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 229 | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Over Celtics/Nets (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But that trio has played just nine games together all season (only 202 total minutes) and I’m a little bit less sold on them championship prospects than others are. But there is no denying that - no matter who Brooklyn has on the court - they are likely to score lots of points. They finished second in scoring in the regular season with 118.6 points per game. I look for Game 1 vs. Boston to go Over the total. The Celtics didn’t shoot particularly well in the play-in win over Washington, but they still scored 118 points, led by Jayson Tatum’s 50. They made slightly less than 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 33% from three-point range. They did put up a ton of threes (45) and I expect a high volume again tonight. Overall, I think the team will shoot better than they did Tuesday night. But they certainly can’t count on Brooklyn going 3 for 21 from three-point range like the Wizards did. There is no doubt that Boston will give up more than 100 points here. The three regular season meetings between the teams all stayed Under. One of them did see 230 total points and Brooklyn scored 123 and 121 win the first two. It was a bad shooting night for both teams when they met last month.I am anticipating both teams scoring at least 115 tonight. The Over is 7-3 in Brooklyn’s L10 home games. One of the three Unders came when neither Durant nor Harden suited up. 10* Over Celtics/Nets |
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05-22-21 | Chris Barnett v. Ben Rothwell UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Barnett/Rothwell (6:40 ET): The chances of this fight going the distance seem rather slim and the most likely scenario - a Rothwell win - isn’t likely to take long at all. This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division between Ben Rothwell (38-13, 8-7 UFC) and Chris Barnett (21-6), the latter making his UFC debut. Rothwell hasn’t fought in a while (off a loss in October) and it was somewhat of an adventure getting him an opponent here. At the end of the night, he’ll likely be happy that he was matched with such an unproven commodity. Look for this fight to end Under 2.5 rounds. Rothwell’s best days are clearly behind him as he’s dropped four of his previous six fights. Three of those losses have come on the heels of his now infamous two-year USADA suspension. That ended in 2019 and he’s 2-3 since. All but one of those fights did go to decision, yet Rothwell still maintains an excellent 89% career finish rate. When he wins, as he’s done 38 times in his MMA career, it’s often by stoppage. Only four of those 38 wins have been by decision. He’s only been stopped six times, the last one coming in 2013. Barnett is so unproven and this is such a step up in class for someone who has spent their entire career competing on the regional circuit. So a Rothwell win inside the distance is the most likely outcome. But if Rothwell were to lose, it likely would be via quick knockout. Barnett is on a six-fight win streak, four of those by TKO/KO. This is going to be a slugfest; two huge heavyweights trading “bombs.” It can only last so long. Honestly, Barnett seems like a bit of a questionable signing for the UFC and probably doesn’t have the necessary skill to last long in the promotion. Either Rothwell ends it quickly, or it's simply the end of the line for him. 8* Under Barnett/Rothwell |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. At the same time, the Grizzlies can’t count on the opposition shooting 35.1% again like the Spurs did Wednesday. San Antonio made just eight three-pointers and was actually just 26 of 75 on two-point attempts, which works out to a horrendous 34.6%. I can’t see a Steph Curry-led team shooting that poorly, especially considering Curry went for 46 when these teams just met on Sunday. As a team, the Warriors shot almost 50% and made 15 three-pointers. Curry didn’t get much help in Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, but LA is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, so I wasn’t surprised about that. So look for BOTH teams to improve upon their respective shooting efforts from Wednesday night. All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, but none featured less than 214 total points and Memphis shot poorly in two of the games. Sunday, they were 43.5% overall and 6 of 25 (24%) from 3-point range. They’ll easily best those numbers here. Memphis actually averages more PPG on the road (116.6) than at home (109.8) and Golden State averages far more at home (116.4) than on the road (110.7). So expect it to be a pretty-high scoring game Friday night. 10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors |
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05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 232.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Celtics (9:05 ET): The winner of this play-in game automatically becomes the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, recent form has been quite different for the Wizards and Celtics. Washington stormed its way into the playoffs by winning 15 of its last 20 games and the five losses were all by four points or less, three of them by exactly one point. Meanwhile, Boston lost Jaylen Brown for the season and limped to the finish with losses in five of their last six games. On the whole, the Celtics definitely had a better regular season. But there’s no denying the Wiz are the “hotter” team entering this game. What I anticipate Tuesday night is a high-scoring game. Washington plays at the fastest tempo in the entire league and despite the late season surge, they still allow the most points per game (118.5) in the league. You’d have to go back to April 10th to find the last time they didn’t score at least 115 themselves in a game. They’ve also allowed 120+ in seven of their last nine games. Before going Under in the final three regular season games, the Wizards had gone Over six straight times. Boston is also on a three-game Under streak, but was 8-1 Over the previous nine games. All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, which is surprising to me. Looking back, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings, even more surprising. But tonight should snap that streak as I anticipate both teams to shoot better than they did in any of those aforementioned matchups. Neither team has shot 50% or better in any of those L5 meetings with the three-point shooting generally being not good. That’s uncharacteristic for both sides. The Over is 6-0 in the L6 Boston home games. 10* Over Wizards/Celtics |
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05-16-21 | Michael Chandler v. Charles Oliveira UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
8* Under Chander/Oliveira (11:59 ET): This is the main event of UFC 262 and it is for the vacant Lightweight Title (155lbs). The fight is scheduled for five rounds between Michael Chandler, who is 22-5 overall and 1-0 in the UFC, and Charles Oliveira, who is 30-8 overall and 18-8 in the UFC. It’s a fight that I don’t expect to go relatively long as I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. Chandler and Oliveira have a combined 52 wins in their respective careers. Only eight of those have been by decision. These are two finishers and I don’t expect this one to make it past the halfway point of round three. Oliveira actually owns the UFC record for most wins via submission. He comes into Saturday’s title fight having won his last eight bouts, seven of those being finishes. The exception was his last time out, a unanimous decision victory over Tony Ferguson in December where he completely dominated from start to finish. That was the first Oliveira fight to go three full rounds since 2014. There were 14 fights in between that didn’t go a full three and the vast majority of them (11) ended within the first two rounds, usually by submission. Chandler, the long-time Bellator Lightweight Champion, made a successful UFC debut in January when he TKO’d Dan Hooker in the first round. That was the fourth consecutive Chandler fight to end in Round 1. Six of his last eight and 7 of 10 have ended in the first five minutes. Only seven of his 27 career fights have gone to the scorecards and only one of those seven have come since 2016. The ratio for Oliviera is even more extreme with only four of 38 fights going to the cards. 8* Under Chandler/Oliviera |
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05-15-21 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 232 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* Under Heat/Bucks (8:05 ET): When Miami beat Philadelphia 104-96 Thursday night, it snapped a 10-game Over streak. Considering that the Heat are only 25th in the league in scoring, it sure was strange to see them go on such a run of Overs. But of course the totals for the vast majority of those games were fairly low. Facing Milwaukee Saturday night, the Heat will see their highest O/U line in well over three months. With the exception of two games vs. Brooklyn in January, this will likely close as the highest O/U for any Miami game all season. Now a high total here shouldn’t be that surprising as Milwaukee is the league’s highest scoring team. But even for them, the amount of scoring in recent games has gotten a bit “out of hand.” The Bucks’ last five contests have averaged more than 260 PPG! There’s a bit of a “course correction” that’s due to take place here and with Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to see reduced minutes Saturday (he played only 35 minutes Thursday), this seems like the “right time” for it. The Bucks shot 57.4% against the defensively challenged Pacers in the last game. That won’t be repeated tonight against a Heat team that just held the #1 team in the East below triple digits. Even with the game vs. the Sixers on Thursday staying well Under the total, Miami’s last five contests have averaged WAY more points than is per usual for them. They’ve shot nearly 53% from the floor the L5 games, so they are also bound to “cool off” at the offensive end. These are two of the top 10 teams in the league in defensive efficiency and the Heat play at a bottom five tempo. 10* Under Heat/Bucks |
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05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Magic/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is now guaranteed a top six finish in the East after outlasting Washington in each of the last two games. A top six finish is nice as it allows the Hawks to avoid the play-in tournament. But they want to be 4th and have home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. While this has been an interesting season (to say the least), Atlanta is 23-11 SU on its home floor where it’s won nine in a row. So getting the home court advantage would be a big deal to them. The final two games (both at home) vs. Orlando and then Houston look to be pretty easy. Orlando is absolutely NOT going to the playoffs as they’ve been near the bottom of the Eastern Conference most of the season. They actually own the worst point differential in the East as they are getting outscored by 8.8 points per game this year. Coming into tonight, they’ve lost four in a row - all by double digits - and are now 21-48 SU this season. The Magic’s big problem is they just can’t score. They average only 104.1 PPG, second fewest in the league, and in those four straight DD losses they’ve never shot better than 41.8% from the field. Three of the four games have seen them score 102 pts or less. After coming back from a 13-point 4Q deficit last night, Atlanta may be a bit drained on the offensive end. The L5 games have seen them average 125.8 PPG, which is well above their season average. Keep in mind they just got done facing the league’s worst scoring defense (Wizards) B2B times. The Under is 8-3 in division games for Atlanta as they give up only 105.1 PPG and score only 109.4. It was 112-96 the last time these teams played and the total was much lower. 10* Under Magic/Hawks |
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05-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Under Blue Jays/Braves (7:20 ET): Toronto has not been a fun opponent for Atlanta as the Jays are now 4-0 in the season series. Yesterday saw them come from behind to win 5-3. That’s a game the Braves probably feel they “should have” won considering they held a 3-2 lead going into the eighth, but a miscue in the field opened the door for the Toronto rally. Look for tonight’s game to feature fewer runs scored than last night as we’ve got a battle of southpaws on the mound: Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Max Fried. Atlanta does not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In games where they face a LH starter, they are hitting just .219 with 4.1 runs per game scored. Ryu is considered to be Toronto’s ace, though he hasn’t been all that great of late. He got plenty of run support his last time out in a 10-4 win over Baltimore. But in four of Ryu’s first five starts this season, the Blue Jays scored three or fewer runs. This is a NL park, so that means the pitcher has to come up to bat. Thus, it’s an easier lineup that Ryu will be facing than when he faces a typical American League lineup with the DH. Though they did win Tuesday, playing without the DH ended a 5-0 Over run for Toronto. They did all of their scoring in two innings, getting two in the sixth, then three in the eighth. Max Fried gets the start today for Atlanta. Like Ryu, Fried had a successful return from the DL his last time out as he allowed just one run in five innings. As I said when I (successfully) played the Under in Atlanta’s game Sunday, the amount of overall scoring at Truist Park is due to go down. 8* Under Blue Jays/Braves |
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05-11-21 | Mariners v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Under Mariners/Dodgers (10:10 ET): Though Seattle saw every game in its previous series (at Texas) go Over the total and the Dodgers are 7-1 Over their last eight, look for this Interleague matchup to be low-scoring and stay Under the total. I say that based on the logistics of the matchup. Seattle, an American League team, is only hitting .205 its L7 games and now they lose the DH because the game is at Dodgers Stadium (NL rules here). The Dodgers’ previous two series were at Wrigley and Angels Stadium (where they got the benefit of the DH). Walker Buehler had an 11-2 team start record for the Dodgers last season. This year, his TSR is only 3-3 but he’s still pitched quite well. In fact, he’s got a lower WHIP (0.938) compared to 2020 and his ERA (3.13) isn’t all that bad either. Only one time in his six starts this season has Buehler allowed more than two runs. That was against the Reds, who are among the highest scoring teams in baseball. Seattle was no-hit recently and has been held to three runs or less in half of the L10 games. Yusei Kikuchi goes for the Mariners on Tuesday. Facing the Dodgers isn’t easy, but LA did score just one run on Sunday, a game they finished with just four hits. The Dodgers have scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Kikuchi has gone seven innings each of his last two starts and allowed just three runs (all in the last one) on six hits. While I am expecting a third straight quality start here from Kikuchi, the likelihood of the Dodgers winning this game is very strong (look at the money line) and that means we probably avoid playing the bottom of the ninth, a bonus when you’ve got the Under. 10* Under Mariners/Dodgers |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Over Nets/Bulls (8:05 ET): Last time out, the Nets snapped a season-worst four game losing streak with a come from behind effort in Denver. They won 125-119 as 3.5-point chalk and were my 10* Game of the Week. In the analysis for that pick, I talked about how strange it was to see Brooklyn not only on a four-game SU losing streak, but also a 4-game Under run. Well, both of those streaks are over now as they look to solidify their status as a top two team in the East and possibly catch Philadelphia for home court advantage. Chicago’s last seven games have been a bit strange in that the losing team has been held below 100 points in every game. The Bulls were the losers in the first four of those seven games, but have since turned it around with a three-game win streak as they hope to keep their fleeting playoff hopes alive. They trail 10th place Washington by 2.5 games for the last spot in the “play-in” tournament with four games to go. The problem is the Bulls have yet to win more than three in a row this season. They are 0-3 SU/ATS when off three consecutive wins in 2020-21. I like this to turn into a really high-scoring game. Even without James Harden, we know what the Nets can do offensively. They are second in the league at 118.6 PPG. They shot a blistering 62.1% against Denver Saturday night. Chicago now has both leading scorer Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup and as a result the team scored 120+ in recent wins over Charlotte and Boston. They also shot 51.2% against Detroit Sunday. The Bulls are 7-0 Under the L7 games, but the opponent they are facing tonight is likely to end that streak. 10* Over Nets/Bulls |
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05-11-21 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
8* Under Heat/Celtics (7:35 ET): These teams just met Sunday here in Boston with the Heat emerging victorious in a wild 130-124 game. Miami jumped out to a huge 79-53 lead as they were shooting better than 65% from the field at that point. However, with a 40-point fourth quarter, the Celtics almost pulled off what would have been a second improbable comeback in the L10 days. (Remember they came back from 32 down to beat the Spurs 143-140 on April 30th. I don’t think this immediate rematch will turn out nearly as high scoring and thus Under is the call Tuesday night on TNT. The game Sunday saw great shooting from both sides. Miami finished the game at 57.3% overall, including 16 of 35 from behind the three-point line. Boston was at 54.2%. The teams also combined to go 40 of 47 from the FT line as the game went Over by more than 30 points. The Heat are now 9-0 Over their L9 games while the Celtics are 7-1 Over their last eight. But can this continue? The last five games have seen Miami score 121.8 PPG, which is well above their season average of 107.6. Same thing for Boston, who is averaging 123.4 PPG their last five contests as opposed to 112.9 for the year. These teams faced off in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals and almost every game went Over. So I am definitely bucking not only recent history, but head to head history as well. However, this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for any Miami game in the last two months. It’s also much higher than any of the O/U lines from LY’s ECF. Boston doesn’t have Jaylen Brown anymore and Evan Fournier isn’t likely to continue his recent hot shooting. Sunday was the Heat’s second highest scoring game of the season. 8* Under Heat/Celtics |
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05-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10* Under Phillies/Braves (7:05 ET): These teams have gone Over five straight times when playing each other, however yesterday’s 8-7 final was a highly misleading score as baseball’s “new” extra inning rules provided for a lot of fireworks in the added frames. Atlanta rallied for the win, but it took two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie it at 3-3. After no scoring in the 10th, each team put a run on the board in the 11th. Then came the 12th where the Phillies scored three times only for the Braves to score four and win the game in dramatic fashion. With two strong starting pitchers on the mound, I look for tonight’s game to see a lot less runs scored. For Philadelphia, it’s Aaron Nola, who has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his seven starts. The Phillies are 5-2 in Nola starts and he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts his last time out. The Over is 3-0 his L3 starts, but not because of him as his WHIP is 1.00 during that time. For the year, you’re looking at a 2.89 ERA and 0.985 WHIP. Atlanta turns to Huascar Ynoa, who happens to have the lowest ERA (2.43) in the rotation. This despite him only having a spot due to an injury to Mike Soroka. The only run allowed by Ynoa in his last two starts was unearned and he’s allowed only eight in 12 ⅓ IP. He’s allowed two runs or less in five of his six starts this season and has a 0.90 WHIP. Braves’ home games have been pretty high-scoring so far, averaging 11.1 runs per game (!), but that number will assuredly start to drop and I’m on the Under here. 10* Under Phillies/Braves |
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05-08-21 | Maurice Greene v. Marcos Rogerio de Lima UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima (8:50 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. Maurice Greene is 9-5 overall in his career, including 4-3 in the UFC. His opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, is 17-7-1 overall and 6-5 in the UFC. Based on Rogeria de Lima’s track record, I do not expect this fight to go very long. I’ve got the Under 1.5 rounds. The vast majority of Rogerio de Lima’s 25 professional bouts have ended in the first round. The exact number is 16 and that includes the last two, a win over Ben Sosoli in February of last year and a loss to Alexander Romanov in November. Then you can throw in the fact that only one of Rogerio de Lima’s fights since 2014 has made it to the third round. The Under 1.5 rounds would have cashed in 14 of his last 16 fights. Rogerio de Lima is always going to come out looking to swing. Either he gets the early knockout, or gasses and gets knocked out himself. Greene has lost three of four with the most recent defeat coming at the hands former NFL player Greg Hardy back on Halloween night. That was an early second round stoppage (TKO), the fifth straight fight for Green that ended in a stoppage. He’s had just four decisions in his career and two of them came in his very first two professional fights. He has a submission game, so if this fight does get down on the mat, look out for that. But the bottom line here is that, no matter how this fight ends, it won’t take long. 10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima |
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05-08-21 | Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 221 | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Pistons/76ers (7:05 ET): With five games left in their regular season, Philadelphia holds a three-game lead over both Milwaukee and Brooklyn in the chase for the Eastern Conference’s #1 seed. So it certainly looks like the road to the NBA Finals will go through the City of Brotherly Love. The team held on for a 109-107 win over short-handed New Orleans (no Zion) last night, thanks to Joel Embiid’s 37 points and 13 rebounds. While they did not cover the spread, it was the eighth straight win for Philly. Detroit is last in the Eastern Conference, some 26 games behind Philadelphia. I actually believe the Pistons are slightly better than their 20-47 SU record, or at least better than the two teams directly ahead of them: Cleveland and Orlando. However, down the stretch, it’s been pretty clear that the team is more interested in evaluating its young players as opposed to “winning now.” However they did shock Memphis on Thursday, 111-97 as nine-point underdogs, ending a four-game losing streak. Philadelphia is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency whereas Detroit is 26th in offensive efficiency, so you have to figure the Pistons won’t be scoring too many points this evening. All five of their starters were in double figures Thursday and they shot 53% overall as a team. A repeat of that is highly unlikely as two of the previous three games saw them fail to break 100 points. The Pistons are 19-8 Under coming off a non-conference game. The 76ers are on a 7-2 Under run vs. losing teams and have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or less. 8* Under Pistons/76ers |
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05-08-21 | Rays v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10* Over Rays/Athletics (4:07 ET): These teams have met five times this season and none of the five games have seen more than seven total runs scored. Thus, the Under has gone 5-0. Four of the five games have seen five or fewer runs scored with three seeing three or less. Yesterday was a 2-1 Oakland victory as they are now ahead 3-2 in the season series with Tampa Bay. Despite so much evidence to the contrary, I’m going with the Over here as the two teams are due to put some runs on the board. It’s not just this season. The Under is 11-2 in the L13 games between the Rays and A’s. But Oakland had gone Over in five of six games before yesterday’s series opener. A big reason for that is they allowed eight or more runs in three of the games. Frankie Montas, who gets the starting nod Saturday, saw his last start go Over. Though that was a 5-4 A’s victory. There have been two times this year that Montas has allowed 6+ runs while lasting four innings or less. Here he’ll be facing a TB lineup that - despite only three hits yday - is averaging 5.5 runs per game on the road. The Rays’ week began with a four-game sweep of the Angels out in Los Angeles. They scored at least seven runs in three of those wins. So I think they’ll do better at the plate today. As for Oakland’s hitters, they’ll face Tyler Glasnow, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his past three starts. There’s no denying that it’s been a strong start to 2021 for Glasnow, but there was a start vs. Toronto where he allowed five runs. The Over is 4-1 in the Rays’ last five as a road favorite. 10* Over Rays/Athletics |
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05-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pistons OVER 222.5 | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons (8:05 ET): Another game I expect to go Over Thursday night features two teams facing very different realities at the present time. Memphis, who won a wild 139-135 game last night in Minnesota, is trying to lock down a spot in the play-in round. Currently 8th in the West, things seem secure, though the lead over 11th place New Orleans is still only 3.5 games. Detroit is dead last in the Eastern Conference and has lost four in a row. They’ve got nothing to play for the rest of the way, although escaping the basement would be nice. Recent starting lineups show that the focus seems to be the future, and not the present, though. Memphis shot 53.6 percent against the Timberwolves last night and made 14 threes. At the same time, their defense was not very good as they allowed Minnesota to make 19 threes and shoot 52.1% overall. It was the third straight Grizzlies’ game to go Over the total and only five of their games in the L30 days have stayed Under. Last night was the eighth time this season they scored 130 or more and also the eighth time they allowed 130+. They gave up a 40-point quarter last night, but also had one of their own. Ja Morant had 37 points and 10 assists. Detroit seems to be tanking, although they did stay within the number vs. Charlotte on Tuesday. That was a low-scoring game (103-99 final) where they and the Hornets combined to make 17 of 63 three-point attempts. The Pistons have been holding out some of their regular starters in order to give some “youngsters” a try and the results aren’t always pretty. The three rookies combined to shoot 4 of 23 from the field on Tuesday. We should see improvement tonight. 8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons |
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05-06-21 | Nets v. Mavs OVER 234.5 | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
8* Over Nets/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Brooklyn has lost three in a row for only the second time all year. The other three-game slide occurred back in early February and the team would go on to win (and cover) each of its next eight games. HC Steve Nash has to be hoping for something similar now that it’s crunch time in the regular season and the Nets no longer hold the tiebreaker against the Bucks after two close losses in Milwaukee this week. James Harden has missed 17 of the last 18 games and the team is just 10-8 SU in that stretch. But the Nets still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They are only two games back of first place Philadelphia. Honestly, no one should be panicking in Brooklyn right now. With wins in seven of their last nine games, the Mavs aren’t panicking either. But they still find themselves locked in their own tight three-way battle. It’s not for the top spot in the conference like Brooklyn’s is, but rather to avoid the play-in round. Right now, Dallas is tied for fifth with the Lakers, but they are only one-half game up on Portland. One of those three teams is going to be relegated to a play-in situation. The Mavs have been openly hostile to the notion of the play-in round and I do expect them to avoid it. What’s interesting about their 7-2 SU run is that both losses came to Sacramento. It’s not quite as rare as losing three in a row, but Brooklyn is also 3-0 Under its last three games. It’s only the third time this year they’ve gone Under in three or more consecutive games. Tuesday’s 124-118 loss to the Bucks BARELY stayed Under (total was 242.5). The number here is lower and they are facing a team that’s scored 125 or more in three of its last five games. The Mavs may not match the near 53% shooting from their last game, a 127-113 win over Miami, but they won’t have to as I expect the Nets to be pretty prolific tonight. 8* Over Nets/Mavericks |
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05-04-21 | Kings v. Thunder UNDER 229.5 | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Under Kings/Thunder (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s bottom five teams meet tonight in OKC with nothing on the line other than pride. Sacramento is going to miss the playoffs for a 15th consecutive season (longest active streak in the NBA), although they do come into Tuesday having won four of six including the first two games of this four-game road trip. Oklahoma City has fallen into the abyss with just one win since the start of April and recently suffered the worst home defeat in NBA history. They are at the bottom of my power ratings. These teams have not met at all this season, but will play three times in the next eight days. If only the Kings were closer to playoff contention, this would be a great opportunity for them to end that long playoff drought. Give them credit for upsetting both the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Mavericks though. Surprisingly, it was defense that was largely responsible for those upsets as they held those teams to 106 and 99 points respectively. I cashed the Under when they beat the Lakers. A big reason why I’m taking the Under here is both teams are without their leading scorers. De’Aaron Fox continues to be in quarantine for Sacramento and making matters worse is that PG Tyrese Haliburton is now out as well after suffering a leg injury in the Dallas game. So don’t look for the Kings to match their 55% shooting from the last game. OKC losing 20 of its last 22 games coincides with the loss of their leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they were already last in the league in offensive efficiency. The Thunder have failed to reach 100 points in three of the last six games. 10* Under Kings/Thunder |
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05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Raptors/Lakers (10:05 ET): LeBron James returned Friday, but that was not enough to turn the tide for the slumping Lakers as they lost to the Kings 110-106. That was LA’s fifth loss in six games and they are 0-6 ATS in that stretch. Remember that Anthony Davis is now back as well. The team has fallen into sixth place in the Western Conference standings and is only one game ahead of Portland. Wouldn’t it be something if the defending NBA Champions were relegated to the “play-in” round? The Raptors, who were NBA Champions two years ago, are simply just trying to get into the play-in round. Suffering their third straight defeat last night (106-102 at Utah) certainly didn’t help the cause as Toronto is now three games back of where they need to be to get into the postseason. This has been a very trying season for the league’s only Canadian franchise as they are 10-22 SU on the road and have played no “true” home games. Injuries have played a big part in the decline as well. That said, I actually think they’ve been better than their record as they have a positive scoring differential/net efficiency rating. LeBron is questionable for tonight, so that’s something to keep an eye on. The last time the last two NBA Champions met was about a month ago and James didn’t play in that game either. A horrendous shooting night (39.6% overall, 5 of 33 from 3pt range) cost the Raptors in a 110-101 loss. That game actually went Over (a really low total), but you’ll notice the number is a lot higher for the rematch. I think there’s value going Under here, which I did when the Lakers lost to the Kings on Friday. As mentioned in that writeup, the one good thing for LA is that they are still #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Raptors/Lakers |
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05-01-21 | Krzysztof Jotko v. Sean Strickland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 62 h 37 m | Show |
7* Over Jotko/Strickland (11:00 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Krzysztof Jotko is 22-4 overall, including 9-4 in the UFC. Strickland has a very similar record at 22-3 overall, including 9-3 in UFC. Strickland will prefer this fight to be standing where he will have the edge striking. But Jotko is going to want to look for takedowns and get things on the mat as he is the superior wrestler. I envision this one likely going to the scorecards. I’ll take the Over 2.5 rounds. Strickland comes in as the decided favorite in this one and for good reason. After recovering from a motorcycle accident that cost him two years of his career, he came back and delivered two of the best performances of his career: a decision victory over Jack Marshman back on Halloween night, followed by a second round TKO of Branden Allen three weeks later. It should be noted that Strickland has only been stopped once in his career. That was back in 2018. Since coming to the UFC, the majority of his fights have gone to decision. Jotko may discover it difficult to take down Strickland, who has 82% takedown defense. On a three fight wins streak, all by decision, Jotko will definitely still try to get this fight down on the mat. His best path to victory is to turn this into a bit of a slog and - while standing - keep Strickland in a clinch. I don’t know how effective he’ll be in doing that, but expect Jotko to survive nonetheless. Seven of Jotko’s last 10 fights have gone to the scorecards. This one makes it at least halfway through Round 3. 7* Over Jotko/Strickland |
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04-30-21 | Kings v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
8* Under Kings/Lakers (10:35 ET): So playing the Kings Under the total in their last game turned out to be a horrendous mistake. They allowed the Jazz to shoot 64 percent from the floor and score 154 points, the franchise’s worst loss since 1991. Obviously, there’s going to be defensive improvement from them tonight against the Lakers. But will it be enough to allow this game to go Under the total? I think so as LA continues to struggle offensively without LeBron James. They are averaging just 104.2 points in the L5 games and Anthony Davis has been back for the last four. He’s averaged only 16.3 PPG on 39.1% shooting. Sacramento still doesn’t have its leading scorer, De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID-19 protocol. The Kings have been held to 113 points or less in three straight games without Fox in the lineup. While the defense was being shredded Wednesday night, at the offensive end they were held to their fewest number of points in a game in almost three weeks. The Under is 10-4 in the Kings’ last 14 road games and 11-4 when they are off a SU loss. The Under is also 8-2 the last 10 times the Lakers have hosted the Kings. I know Sacramento is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but I just don’t see the Lakers taking advantage tonight as they have shot below 44% from the field in three of the last five games. The one positive with James out is that the Lakers remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Kings/Lakers |
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04-30-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
10* Under Angels/Mariners (10:10 ET): We’ve got a battle of two excellent starting pitchers in Friday’s series opener between the Angels and Mariners. Andrew Heaney goes for the Angels and he has a 0.92 WHIP in four starts. Over his L3 starts, Heaney has been particularly dominant. He’s gone a total of 17 ⅔ innings and allowed just three runs on seven hits. He also has 25 strikeouts during that time. Here, Heaney faces a Seattle lineup that managed just one run yesterday (and won!) and has been held to three runs or fewer in four of its last five ballgames. Chris Flexen will start for Seattle and he too has been sharp of late. He’s allowed one or zero runs in three of his four starts this season, including just two total runs in the last two starts. Last time out, he went a season-high seven innings and allowed one run on four hits vs. the Red Sox. Combined, these two starters have allowed only two home runs all season. The Mariners ended a four-game losing streak yesterday and avoided a sweep at Houston with a 1-0 victory. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’ve had fewer than 10 hits in 9 of their last 10 games and five of them they’ve finished with four or less hits. They just .191 at home. The Angels, who have topped four runs only twice in their L10 games, aren’t exactly hitting the cover off the ball either. 10* Under Angels/Mariners |
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04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Over Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): It was a rude welcome home for Memphis on Wednesday. The Grizzlies fell 130-109 to Portland in their first game back at the FedEx Forum following a 4-3 road trip. Shooting just 42% for the second consecutive game was NOT what the doctor ordered, especially on the heels of the prior six games, five of which saw the Grizz score 120 or more points. They are now 3.5 games back of Dallas for sixth place in the West and tied with the Spurs for eighth. A win here is desperately needed. When in need of a win, playing Orlando always seems to be a favorable matchup. The Magic have run out tricks this season as they are second from the bottom in the Eastern Conference and have the second worst point differential in all of the league. They did win, 109-104 at Cleveland on Wednesday. But the Cavs are not a good team and it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect the Magic to hold another opponent to 40.2% shooting like they did to Cleveland. The previous three games saw Orlando allow each of its opponents to shoot 54% or better and six of the last nine opponents have been above 50%. So I think we can definitely count on Memphis scoring a lot of points tonight. The question then is can Orlando do the same? Seeing as how the Grizzlies have allowed 120 points in B2B games as well as four of their last six, I’ll answer that question in the affirmative. The Magic are 8-1 Over their last nine games, including 4-0 the last four. Since March 22nd, only seven Grizzlies’ games have stayed Under and only one of them had a total lower than 225. 10* Over Magic/Grizzlies |
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04-28-21 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 223 | Top | 154-105 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
8* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): These teams played earlier this month and didn’t have much trouble going Over the total in what ended up being a 128-112 Utah win. You’ll notice the total is several points LOWER for this rematch and that’s because the Jazz simply aren’t the same team right now as they were in that first meeting. PG Donovan Mitchell is out and the team is coming off B2B losses to lowly Minnesota, one at home and one on the road. The last four Jazz games have all stayed Under the total. Sacramento’s April began with a long losing streak as they basically played their way out of playoff contention. Things have stabilized a bit over the past six games as they’ve gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS. Still, it feels like “too little, too late” for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade and is 5.5 games out currently. The Kings are off a 113-106 win over Dallas on Tuesday, one of the better defensive efforts in some time. It was actually their fewest points allowed in a game since March 27 vs. Cleveland. I don’t think the Kings will match Monday’s 51.9% shooting. Not with De’Aaron Fox still sidelined. Fox is the team’s leading scorer at 25.2 points per game. Now, will Utah shoot better than it did against Minnesota on Monday? Probably. They did miss 41 three-point attempts in that game! But they will also still miss Mitchell, who led the way with 42 points in the first meeting with the Kings. The Jazz were also 30 of 35 from the FT line in that game, something that isn’t likely to happen again tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Kings |
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04-27-21 | Chelsea v. Real Madrid UNDER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Chelsea/Real Madrid (3:00 ET): It was back on January 26th that Chelsea hired Thomas Tuchel to be its new coach, replacing Frank Lampard, and save its floundering 2020-21 campaign. The Blues spent a lot of money in the offseason and floundering in the middle of the Premier League table is not where they felt they belonged. Sure enough, Tuchel has turned things around by guiding Chelsea up to 4th place in the EPL standings. A top four finish and Champions League qualification is very much in play for them at this point. Of course, there is also the matter of winning THIS year’s Champions League. Since Tuchel took over, Chelsea matches have become incredibly low-scoring. Of the 21 total, both domestic and European, 18 have seen two or fewer total goals scored. They have allowed multiple goals just once under Tuchel with an average of 0.7 expected goals per match. 1-0 wins have become rather commonplace and that was the final score when they beat West Ham over the weekend. That was the club’s third consecutive clean sheet (shutout) as well. Here in the Champions League, there were just three combined goals scored in the two legs of the quarter final with FC Porto. Semifinal opponent Real Madrid, like Chelsea, is still wiping the egg off its face over the Super League implosion. Then there was a disappointing 0-0 draw with Real Betis in La Liga play over the weekend. Embarrassment and disappointment aside, Los Blancos have now turned in four consecutive clean sheets and have never allowed more than one goal in a current 17-match unbeaten run! The thing is, three of their last four fixtures (including the second leg of the CL quarters vs. Liverpool) have been goalless draws. Goals should be especially hard to come by in this first leg of the semis and I’ll take the Under. 10* Under Chelsea/Real Madrid |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers (4:05 ET): Going back to last season’s “bubble,” the Grizzlies and Blazers have met three times and all three have gone Over the total. This season’s first meeting just took place on Friday and the teams combined for 258 points (130-128 Memphis win) after combining for 248 and 275 (OT) in LY’s bubble. But with a quick turnaround breeding a sense of familiarity here, I look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday and will take the Under. A lot is on the line here. Portland has lost its grip on sixth place in the West, which is critical because the way things stand now, they’d have to deal with the “play-in” scenario. I fully expected the Mavs to pass them and now the question is will the Grizzlies do the same? Friday’s win pulled the Grizz within 1.5 games of the Blazers and they’ve got the better YTD point differential and net efficiency rating, indicative that a passing may take place. While Portland’s last three losses have been a total of four points, they’ve also taken a high number of blowouts this season. These teams definitely appear to be trending in different directions as the Blazers have lost four in a row overall and the Grizzlies are 16-4 ATS their L20 games. But winning twice in three days at Portland will be hard. Memphis shot 53% Friday, shooting I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. Nor do I think Portland is going to shoot 40% from 3-point range again. The Blazers are 4-1 Under this season after allowing 130+ points the previous game. Memphis leads the NBA in 2-point field goals attempted AND made per game, so they’re not a 3-pt shooting team. Don’t expect them to match Friday’s 29 fast break points either. 10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers |
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04-24-21 | Anthony Smith v. Jim Crute OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-23-21 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 229.5 | Top | 129-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Wizards/Thunder (8:05 ET): Washington has gotten hot at the right time as they’ve won six in a row to move into 10th place in the Eastern Conference. If they can hold onto that spot (or move up further), then they are in the play-in round for the playoffs. It’s the second longest active win streak in the NBA right now (Knicks) and what’s been curious is that it’s been somewhat fueled by the team’s play at the defensive end of the floor. The Wizards have given up only 109.4 PPG over the L5 games. All five of those games stayed Under and we had the Under in the last one, a 118-114 win over Golden State. Now obviously a final score such as that is going to go Over most totals. But I saw a really high number there and took advantage. What’s interesting is that three of the five straight Unders would have gone Over tonight’s total as the Wiz are in OKC to face Russell Westbrook’s former team, the struggling Thunder, who have lost 12 in a row and are at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. Washington has averaged 120.5 PPG during its win streak and I see no reason why they shouldn’t again be hovering around that number tonight. They are probably likely to eclipse it as the Thunder have allowed an average of 122.0 PPG their last five contests. These teams just met Monday in D.C. with the Wizards winning 119-107. The rematch should be higher scoring based on the fact that OKC was just 23 of 50 on two-point attempts in that game and I’m not a believer in Washington sustaining its recent defensive “surge.” They are still giving up 118.0 PPG for the season, which is third most in the league. 10* Over Wizards/Thunder |
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04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards UNDER 239.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* Under Warriors/Wizards (7:05 ET): The two top scorers in the NBA will be on the same floor tonight as Steph Curry and the Warriors take on Bradley Beal and the Wizards. Curry has been absolutely on fire of late and was the talk of social media Monday night with a 49-point effort against the Sixers. He made 10 three-pointers as it was his 11th straight game with 30+ points and he’s averaged 43.8 PPG on the team’s current road trip. But still, as a team Golden State finished with only 107 points Monday night. You have to figure Curry won’t be going off like THAT again here, even if the Wizards are far from the league’s finest defensive outfit. Washington comes into tonight on a five-game win streak (also 7-1 L8) as they too are trying to qualify for the postseason. They are in the midst of a “friendly” stretch of home games that has seen them recently defeat New Orleans, Detroit and Oklahoma City. The Wizards’ last four games have all stayed Under as their defense has improved at the right time. They’ve held those last four opponents to 115 pts or less, which may not sound all that impressive, but it is for this team. This total is really high. It’s almost identical to the O/U line from the last meeting, which was earlier this month, and saw Washington win 110-107 as a 4.5-point underdog. Curry hadn’t really “caught fire” yet, but still went for 32. The Wizards had four players score at least 19 in that win. I just don’t see the kind of scoring the oddsmakers are expecting to take place here. Only two of Golden State’s last 13 games would have gone Over this number while only three of the Wizards’ last 12 would have done the same. 10* Under Warriors/Wizards |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
8* Over Dodgers/Mariners (4:10 ET): Though they’ve been held to just seven runs total over the L3 games (and LOST to Mariners 4-3 yday), you’ve got to like the Dodgers chances to “break out” offensive today. They will be facing embattled Seattle starter Marco Gonzales, who has an 8.22 ERA and 1.761 WHIP this year. Despite the lack of production at the plate the L3 games, Los Angeles is still averaging 5.5 runs per game and the addition of a DH (AL park) their lineup obviously becomes more potent. Jose Urias will start for the Dodgers today, hoping for a better effort than what he gave his last time out. Urias allowed five runs (four earned) in six innings against Colorado last Thursday, ironically way more than he allowed when he faced the Rockies at Coors Field earlier in the month. The Dodgers still won the game, 7-5, and the Over is now 11-1 in Urias’ last 12 starts. The fewest number of runs scored by the Dodgers in any Urias start during that time is four. They’ve AVERAGED 7.5 runs in those 12 games. Like I said earlier, Gonzales figures to struggle facing the NL’s highest scoring offense. He was better in his last start, but that was against Baltimore. The first two starts saw him allow 12 runs in 10 ⅓ IP. He’s also already allowed six home runs. Again, facing the already loaded Dodgers lineup plus a DH is a tough task. In his only previous start here at home, Gonzales gave up three home runs. The Dodgers’ lineup has homered in every game but three this season and all but one since the first two games. 8* Over Dodgers/Mariners |
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04-18-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
10* Under Pirates/Brewers (2:10 ET): Each team has won a game handily in this series. Pittsburgh opened with a 6-1 win on Friday before Milwaukee fired back with a 7-1 win one Saturday. The Brew Crew are heavily favored to take Sunday’s rubber match and while I see a strong likelihood of that occurring, the Under offers more value here and is even more likely to cash. Each of the Brewers’ last four games have gone Under with none of them seeing more than eight total runs scored. Whether you like the Brewers or the Under, starter Freddy Peralta has got to be the key to victory. In three appearances this year (two starts), Peralta has dazzled by allowing just one run and five hits in 13 IP. He has 24 strikeouts, second most on the team, as well. The lone run surrendered was on a home run. His ERA is down to 0.69 and opponents are batting just .119 off him. While Peralta has 10 career appearances against the Pirates, his only start saw him toss six shutout innings. The Pirates, who are widely expected to be a bad team in 2021, had been hitting well going into yesterday. But they went 0 for 9 with RISP. It should be noted that five of Milwaukee’s seven runs yesterday came with two outs in the first inning. Bucs starter Chad Kuhl has been shaky so far with all three starts going Over. But he’s 4-0 with a 1.73 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Milwaukee. The Brew Crew winning here would be beneficial as they’d come up to bat eight times, rather than nine. 10* Under Pirates/Brewers |
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Bryan Power ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-09-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox OVER 11 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
07-08-21 | Phillies v. Cubs UNDER 10 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
07-06-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
07-03-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
07-02-21 | Astros v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 216 | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Mets v. Braves OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Padres v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
07-01-21 | Astros v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
06-30-21 | Orioles v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
06-29-21 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
06-27-21 | A's v. Giants OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
06-26-21 | Phillies v. Mets OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
06-26-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Danilo Marques OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
06-24-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
06-24-21 | Royals v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
06-23-21 | Astros v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
06-22-21 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
06-20-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 215 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
06-19-21 | Roque Martinez v. Josh Parisian OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
06-19-21 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 104 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 119-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Tigers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Twins v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
06-18-21 | Bolivia v. Chile UNDER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
06-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Orioles v. Indians UNDER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
06-15-21 | Germany v. France UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 229 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Jake Collier v. Felipe Colares OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
06-11-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
06-11-21 | Mariners v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
06-10-21 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 222 | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
06-09-21 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Dodgers v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
06-08-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Augusto Sakai v. Jair Rozenstruik OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -198 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
06-05-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 239.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
06-04-21 | A's v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Marlins v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
06-04-21 | Indians v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 208 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
06-03-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz UNDER 225.5 | Top | 110-126 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
06-02-21 | Wizards v. 76ers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 112-129 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
06-01-21 | Tigers v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
05-31-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 230 | Top | 114-122 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
05-31-21 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
05-30-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 209.5 | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
05-30-21 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards UNDER 228.5 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
05-29-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 95-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 102 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
05-28-21 | Blue Jays v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 11-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 228 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | Top | 109-128 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 229 | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
05-22-21 | Chris Barnett v. Ben Rothwell UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 232.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
05-16-21 | Michael Chandler v. Charles Oliveira UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
05-15-21 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 232 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
05-12-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Mariners v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232.5 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
05-11-21 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
05-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Maurice Greene v. Marcos Rogerio de Lima UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Pistons v. 76ers UNDER 221 | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
05-08-21 | Rays v. A's OVER 7 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pistons OVER 222.5 | Top | 97-111 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
05-06-21 | Nets v. Mavs OVER 234.5 | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
05-04-21 | Kings v. Thunder UNDER 229.5 | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
05-01-21 | Krzysztof Jotko v. Sean Strickland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 62 h 37 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Kings v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies OVER 224.5 | Top | 75-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
04-28-21 | Jazz v. Kings UNDER 223 | Top | 154-105 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
04-27-21 | Chelsea v. Real Madrid UNDER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
04-24-21 | Anthony Smith v. Jim Crute OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
04-23-21 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 229.5 | Top | 129-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
04-21-21 | Warriors v. Wizards UNDER 239.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
04-20-21 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
04-18-21 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show |