My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 runs over Boston at 1:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'avoid the sweep' crowd figures to be out in full force backing the Red Sox in this game. We've already taken advantage of that once this season, cashing with the Astros as they wrapped up a series sweep of Boston two weeks ago. We'll do the same with the red hot Twins on Wednesday. Minnesota ranks third in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. It also sits seventh in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and it will face a southpaw starter in Connelly Early of the Red Sox on Wednesday. Early is off to a fine start by some metrics, including a 2.94 FIP through three outings. However, he has allowed 22-of-61 (36%) of batters he has faced to reach base and given how well Minnesota has been hitting, it is likely to take advantage here. Simeon Woods Richardson will counter for the Twins. He doesn't instill a ton of confidence but will be facing a Red Sox club that ranks 24th in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Current Boston hitters have gone a healthy 7-for-22 (.318) but with only a .764 OPS against Woods Richardson. We're talking about a small sample size and only one of those seven hits went for extra bases. Of the nine Red Sox hitters that have seen Woods Richardson, only five have collected a hit and just one has more than one hit (Isiah Kiner-Falefa - a part-time player - is 3-for-4 with three singles). We'll grab the insurance run here as the Twins bullpen has admittedly struggled in the early going this season. While Minnesota's bullpen numbers are gawdy for the most part, it has managed to convert five saves while blowing only one. Take Minnesota +1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Texas at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, marking their second straight victory following an 'upset' win over the Dodgers in Los Angeles on Sunday. We'll grab the insurance run with the Athletics on Tuesday as I think the case can be made for the wrong team being favored in this A.L. West matchup. MacKenzie Gore will take the ball for Texas. Granted he spent the first four years of his big league career pitching for some bad Nationals teams, Gore owns a career 28-41 record. He's 2-0 this season but draws an incredibly difficult matchup on Tuesday. The A's current hitters have absolutely worn Gore out, albeit in a relatively small sample size, collecting 18 hits in 32 at-bats (.562) wtih a 1.369 OPS. The A's rank eighth in the majors in xwOBA over the last week - 11 spots ahead of the Rangers. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the A's. It's easy to forget that he was emerging as an elite southpaw for the Rays before injuries derailed him in back-to-back seasons. He showed signs of returning to form across 30 starts last year and so far, so good here in 2026 as well as he is 2-0 with a 2.53 FIP and 0.76 WHIP. Current Rangers hitters have gone just 12-for-51 (.235) with a .703 OPS against the left-hander. The Rangers do have the better bullpen in this matchup based on early returns this season. However, the A's relief corps has improved lately, postin ga 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with three saves converted and only one blown over the last week. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 runs over Cleveland at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday.

The Guardians delivered a blowout win to open this series last night. I look for the Cardinals to put forth a more competitive effort on Tuesday as they look to even this series at a game apiece. Of note, Cleveland has yet to deliver consecutive road wins this season. St. Louis' current three-game slide marks a season-high. Joey Cantillo will take the ball for Cleveland. The left-hander is off to a terrific start this season. Like most young pitchers, he has pitched better at home than on the road over the course of his career. In 74 career innings pitched at home he owns a 3.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. On the road he has logged a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with a 2.1 K:BB ratio in 74 2/3 innings. The Cardinals, despite their recent struggles, actually check in top-nine in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Note that the Cleveland bullpen continues to be a sore spot in the early going this season and has posted a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 19 innings of work over the last week. Michael McGreevy will counter for St. Louis. He's off to a similar start to the season as Cantillo. He's been a winner in the early stages of his career, posting a 12-5 mark in 24 big league appearances including 22 starts since 2024. The Cards are 2-0 in his two previous home starts this season. The Guardians rank 18th in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. St. Louis' bullpen got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over the last week, posting a 3.75 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, yielding just 16 hits, nine walks and 10 earned runs over 24 innings. Take St. Louis +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh -1.5 runs over Washington at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

The Nationals enter this series off an improbable weekend sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Credit Washington for beating up on Milwaukee pitching and turning in some solid pitching performances of its own in that impressive three-game set. I think its streak will come to an end on Monday, however, as it heads to Pittsburgh to face Paul Skenes and the Pirates. While Pittsburgh failed to complete its own series sweep of the Cubs yesterday, it still has to be feeling pretty good about itself as it returns home sporting a 9-6 record through 15 games. The Nats' will face a tall order on Monday as they go up against Paul Skenes, with many of their hitters seeing him for the first time (their current roster has just nine collective at-bats against him with only one hit). Cade Cavalli is an impressive young starter in his own right for Washington but he's been shaky in the early going this season, allowing 23 of the 62 batters he has faced to reach base, good for a 3.91 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. The Pirates current rank eighth in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Behind Cavalli is a Nats' bullpen that has logged a 5.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP with three saves converted and five blown so far this season. Take Pittsburgh -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Brewers bandwagon should be fully cleared after they dropped a second straight game to open this series against the Nationals. I like their chances of bouncing back on Sunday and we're getting a plus-money return to lay the extra run. Zack Littell will take the ball for Washington. I don't think he's a viable big league starter to put it bluntly. Littell's career year as a starter came in 2024 when he went 8-10 with a 3.88 FIP and 1.25 WHIP. Last year he posted a 4.88 FIP and so far this season he has logged a 5.82 FIP through 10 innings of work. The Nationals already thin bullpen will likely be without a pair of options on Sunday with two relievers working each of the first two games of this series. Meanwhile, it will be all hands on deck for the Brewers bullpen after using just two relievers for a combined 17 pitches last night. Veteran Brandon Woodruff will be tasked with helping Milwaukee end its four-game slide. He showed he still had plenty of tread left on his tires last year, posting a 3.17 FIP and 0.91 WHIP in 12 starts, going 7-2 along the way. He hasn't been quite as sharp so far this season but I do expect the veteran right-hander to settle in and like the way this matchup sets up against what projects as one of the weaker lineups in baseball, even if it hasn't necessarily played out that way so far this season. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Texas at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

I think the presence of Jack Leiter on the mound for the Rangers, who is admittedly off to a terrific start, is going to put a lot of bettors off the scent when it comes to the Dodgers run-line on Saturday. Los Angeles out-slugged Texas in a wild 8-7 affair to open this series last night, ending the Rangers three-game winning streak. While Leiter has pitched well, he runs into a Dodgers team that ranks best in baseball in a number of key categories against right-handed pitching this season. The bullpen behind Leiter has held up well in the early going this season but has suffered a drop-off on the road, where it has logged an inflated 1.46 WHIP, allowing far too many hits and walks. Texas wasted a good showing at the plate last night as it ranks 26th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Emmet Sheehan will take the ball for Los Angeles on Saturday. He's off to a rocky start to the campaign but the Dodgers have still managed to win both of his starts. He posted stark home-road splits last year, pitching to the tune of a sub-2.00 ERA in eight starts at Dodger Stadium. I think he does his part to help the Dodgers to a win by margin on Saturday. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Detroit -1.5 runs over Minnesota at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Twins have gotten the better of the Tigers in this series so far but we'll call for Detroit to answer back on Wednesday. Framber Valdez will get the start for the visiting Tigers. He's off to a fine start with his new club, sporting a 2.24 FIP and 1.08 WHIP and now gets to face a Twins team that perennially struggles against lefties. Minnesota ranks a middling 19th in the majors in xwOBA over the last week. Bailey Ober counters for the Twins. He has posted a 4.65 FIP and 1.38 WHIP through his first two outings, lasting only eight innings. He figures to have his hands full against a familiar Tigers lineup that ranks top-six in baseball in xwOBA over the last week. While the Tigers bullpen got off to a rough start this season, it has settled in to the tune of a 1.80 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and has been call into only 20 innings of action over the last week. The Twins 'pen is entering 'overworked' territory having logged 27 innings over that same stretch, recording a 4.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP along the way. Take Detroit -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday.

I'm not overly interested in laying chalk with the Phillies right now but I do think we're being offered a decent plus-money return to lay the extra run as they look to secure a series win against the Giants on Wednesday afternoon. There's not a lot to choose between two perennially inconsistent starting pitchers in Aaron Nola and Tyler Mahle. Early returns do favor Nola this season, however, and I think he can handle a lukewarm Giants offense that ranks 23rd in wOBA and 28th in xwOBA over the last week. The Phillies reside in the top-10 in baseball in both categories over the same stretch. Also, we'll note that Philadelphia's bullpen has been steadier in the early going this season and certainly over the last week as it has logged a 1.74 ERA and 0.63 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over that stretch. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The 'avoid the sweep' bettors will be out in full force to back the Red Sox on Wednesday as they send their ace Garrett Crochet to the mound against Mike Burrows of the Astros. Interestingly, current Astros hitters have had plenty of success against Crochet, going a combined 20-for-54 (.370) with a healthy .952 OPS. After a slow start to the season, Houston's bats have come alive as they now rank second in baseball in weighted on base average over the last week. The bullpens are a virtual wash based on current form although at least Houston has yet to blow a save (the Red Sox have converted one and blown one). I do think Astros starter Burrows is better than he showed in his debut with his new club against the Angels. Keep in mind, he logged a respectable 4.00 FIP and 1.24 WHIP with the Pirates last season. We'll take a flyer on Houston grabbing an insurance run at a reasonable price here. Take Houston +1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

While it may not seem appealing to fade the Phillies coming off back-to-back losses against the Rangers over the weekend, we'll do so while grabbing the insurance run with the Nationals on Monday. Washington had a terrific series against the Cubs to open the season. The Nats' won a lopsided affair yesterday to close out the series victory and they check in ranked fourth in the majors in weighted on base average so far this season. Washington also managed its bullpen well in that season-opening series with none of its relievers having worked consecutive days entering Monday's contest. Philadelphia has yet to get going offensively so I think this is the time to get our licks in fading it. Taijuan Walker takes the ball for the Phillies on Monday and he certainly doesn't inspire confidence. He was effective in the Spring, but made only two appearances. Over the last two seasons, Walker has logged an 8-15 record despite pitching for good Phillies clubs. His numbers were slightly improved last year compared to 2024 but that's not saying much as he still posted a 5.07 FIP and 1.41 WHIP. Foster Griffin gets the start for Washington in what will be his first big league appearance since 2022. He's been pitching in Japan for the last few years, going 18-10 with a 2.57 ERA in north of 300 innings of work. I don't think the Nats' will ask too much of the left-hander in his first regular season back in the bigs, but I do think he can hold the Phillies slumping bats at bay. Take Washington +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Washington at 2:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Cubs dropped the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion but won in a rout yesterday. I expect more of the same in Sunday's series-finale. Jake Irvin takes the ball for the Nationals. He had a fine Spring but he's never been able to figure it out during the regular season, most recently posting a 5.64 FIP and 1.43 WHIP last season. For his career, he owns an ugly 22-34 record, not surprising considering he pitches for the Nationals but he hasn't done himself any favors either. This isn't an ideal matchup as every current Cub hitter that has seen Irvin has registered at least a hit and as a collective, they're batting .290 with a .916 OPS in 69 career at-bats against him. Shota Imanaga counters for Chicago. He wasn't able to recapture the form that saw him in the running for N.L. Rookie of the Year two years ago in 2025 but I'm confident he'll pitch well for Chicago this season. He logged a 4.86 FIP but a stellar 0.99 WHIP in 25 starts last year and owns a solid 24-11 career record. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Astros have dropped the opening two games of this series but are well-positioned to bounce back on Saturday. Reid Detmers will take the ball for Los Angeles. The left-hander is coming off a fine 2025 season but that was strictly as a reliever as he made 61 appearances and posted a 3.12 FIP and 1.30 WHIP. He had a rough Spring across four outings and it's important to remember that in his last two years as a starter with the Halos he posted a combined 8-19 record with a FIP well over four and a WHIP approaching 1.50. Cristian Javier was only able to make eight starts due to injury last year and posted a 3.65 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. He appeared ready for the season in Spring, posting a 1.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 10 2/3 innings of work. Los Angeles has been powered by five home runs in the early going while Houston has mustered just one. We'll call for a reversal of sorts on Saturday. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

This is obviously a critical game for the Dodgers as they look to avoid facing elimination with the series shifting to Toronto for Game 6 (and a potential Game 7). With that said, I think the line is out of whack and will take advantage by grabbing the insurance run with the Blue Jays at a very reasonable price. Blake Snell starts for the Dodgers. While he has pitched well in the postseason, the Jays did reach him for five earned runs on eight hits over five innings in Game 1 of this series. I don't think this is a particularly good matchup for Snell as the Jays are patient at the plate and command has been an issue for the veteran left-hander throughout his career. In short, Toronto will make Snell work. Of note, the Dodgers are just 5-10 in Snell's 15 starts this season when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. This is a huge moment for Jays rookie starter Trey Yesavage. This might be the biggest start he ever makes in a big league uniform, even if it is only his eighth career outing. In four postseason starts he has recorded a 3.40 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. It's advantage Toronto as far as the bullpens go. In this series, the Jays 'pen has posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while the Dodgers relief corps has logged a 4.19 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Take Toronto +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Cincinnati +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Reds on Wednesday as they take on Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers. Note that Los Angeles has dropped each of Ohtani's last four starts including a 5-2 loss against these same Reds in Cincinnati. Over his last two starts, Ohtani has been tagged for nine earned runs on 14 hits over 8 1/3 innings. Nick Lodolo makes his return to the Reds starting rotation following a stint on the I.L. He was pitching well before he got hurt, including tossing a complete game shutout just three starts back, on the road no less. All told, Lodolo has allowed just four earned runs in his last five big league starts, spanning 29 innings of work. Take Cincinnati +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Diamondbacks on Monday as they look to add to the Brewers woes in Milwaukee. The Brew Crew dropped consecutive games against the Giants over the weekend. Their power has run dry recently as they check in ranked 26th in the majors in isolated power over the last week. In stark contrast, Arizona ranks 11th in that same category over the last week. D'Backs starter Eduardo Rodriguez has been on the mound for four straight wins, allowing just five earned runs in 13 2/3 innings of work over his last two outings. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff was terrific after returning from injury but has cooled off a bit over his last two starts, allowing three earned runs on nine hits over 8 1/3 innings. He needed 94 pitches to get through only 4 1/3 innings last time out. Finally, we'll note that the D'Backs bullpen has been terrific lately, logging a 2.96 ERA and 1.123 WHIP over the last week. On the road this season, Arizona has converted 21 saves while blowing just 10. The Brewers bullpen has been solid for much of the season but has only managed to convert one save while blowing three over the last week. Take Arizona +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday.

It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the Angels with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound recently. Their last four wins with the left-hander starting have all come by three runs or more while three of their last four defeats with Kikuchi on the hill have come by four or more runs. I like the matchup for Kikuchi here as he looks to rebound off a poor outing against the Athletics on the road. The Angels are 5-1 in his last six home starts and the last time we saw him pitch in Anaheim he allowed just one earned run over six innings against the Rays. Cincinnati ranks 24th in the majors in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching this season and 26th in isolated power. Nick Martinez will counter for Cincinnati. He was lit up for five earned runs on nine hits over just 2 2/3 innings last time out. He had been pitching reasonably well prior to that outing but I think that poor performance could stem the tide, noting he owns a 4.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 13 road appearances this season. Note that the Angels are ninth in baseball in isolated power against right-handed pitching this season. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 11:35 am et on Sunday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Phillies on Sunday as they match up well with Nationals struggling starter Mitchell Parker. Parker checks in having been tagged for a ridiculous 17 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 14 1/3 innings. Off yesterday's poor showing, we can anticipate the Phillies offense bouncing back on Sunday. Aaron Nola will return to the mound for Philadelphia. When we last saw him at the big league level he was struggling mightily back in May, but also dealing with an injury. He looked good in his rehab starts and draws a favorable matchup as he returns against a familiar opponent in the Nationals. Look for Philadelphia to give Nola all the support he needs in a lopsided victory. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

The Giants are coming off a frustrating weekend series against the Nationals as they took the opener in blowout fashion but stumbled in the next two games. We'll back San Francisco on Monday as it looks to take its frustrations out on division rival San Diego. The Padres will send Yu Darvish to the mound. He's been fairly sharp at home since returning from injury but not so much on the road. In three road outings, Darvish has allowed 14 earned runs and three home runs in just 12 1/3 innings of work. The Padres lost two of those three games by multiple runs with the lone victory coming in his most recent start in Arizona, and they needed extra innings to get it. Giants ace Logan Webb went through a rough stretch in July but has come out of it, allowing just two earned runs in 11 2/3 innings while striking out a whopping 21 batters in his last two starts. A perennial All-Star and Cy Young Award contender, Webb owns a terrific 2.53 FIP and 1.25 WHIP this season. While the Giants bats haven't exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball, they're arguably in better form than the Padres'. San Francisco is 18th in the majors in weighted on base average and 20th in isolated power over the last week. Meanwhile, San Diego sits in 23rd and 28th in those two categories, respectively, over the same stretch. While the Padres bullpen has been terrific lately, so has the Giants. San Francisco's relief corps has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last week and a 3.07 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only six blown at home this season. Noting that of Webb's 12 team victories this season, eight have come by two runs or more, we'll lay the extra run at a generous price on Monday. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics -1.5 runs over Washington at 12:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Nationals bounced back from Tuesday's drubbing at the hands of the A's with a narrow victory last night. I don't think they'll be able to string together a second straight victory on Thursday, however. The A's have hit left-handers hard lately and get a chance to tee off on a struggling one in Nats' starter Mitchell Parker on Thursday. While A's starter Jacob Lopez has had hits ups and downs this season, he hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts, albeit in just 9 1/3 innings. Walks have been an issue but the Nats' are middle-of-the-pack in walk rate over the last week and let's face it, walks aren't going to get it done against this red hot A's offense. Note that Washington sits in the bottom-third of the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last week while the A's are top-eight in both categories. Finally, we'll note that the bullpen matchup has been no contest over the last month. The A's 'pen has posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with four saves converted and none blown over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Nats' 'pen has recorded a 6.41 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Worse still, Washington's relief corps owns a 10.08 ERA and 2.36 WHIP over the last seven days. Take the Athletics -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Everyone is pretty high on the Mariners right now after they made a big splash at the trade deadline, acquiring Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez to bolster their offense. The moves have certainly paid dividends as Seattle enters this game having won four of its last five including an 8-3 rout to open this series last night. I think this is a good spot to back the White Sox at a generous price with an insurance run, however. Jonathan Cannon will take the ball for Chicago. The White Sox had won each of his last five starts prior to his most recent outing - a 6-3 loss to the Phillies. As bad as things have gone for Chicago this season, it has gone 6-5 with Cannon pitching on the road when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. On the flip side, Mariners starter George Kirby has only posted a 2-5 record at home when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Of note, the White Sox rank second in the majors in isolated power over the last week. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the White Sox on Tuesday as they open a series against the Mariners in Seattle. Chicago continues to play some of its best baseball of the season. Unlike the Mariners, all the pressure is off for the White Sox right now. They check in ranked eighth in the majors in weighted on base average and ninth in isolated power over the last week. Mariners All-Star starter Bryan Woo doesn't bring much of an intimidation factor right now. Seattle has lost each of Woo's last four starts. Last time out he gave up five earned runs including four home runs in a 5-4 loss to the A's in Sacramento. In 21 Woo starts this season, the Mariners have won just six games by more than single run. While Davis Martin has been anything but lights out for the White Sox, he continues to battle. Last time out he gave up just two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in a 6-2 win over a good Phillies team. In fact, the White Sox are a perfect 4-0 in Martin's last four outings when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. The battle of the bullpens is closer than you might think as well. The Sox 'pen has logged a 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last month, virtually on par with the Mariners' 3.64 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Phillies on Sunday night as they look to bounce back following Saturday's 7-5 defeat. Philadelphia will hand the ball to left-hander Cristopher Sanchez as they look to cool off the red hot Tigers bats. Sanchez didn't have his best stuff last time out but still battled through 6 2/3 innings against the White Sox. Prior to that he had given up exactly one earned run in six consecutive starts, lasting at least seven innings in five of those outings. Charlie Morton will counter for Detroit - making his first start since coming over from Baltimore. While the Phillies haven't been all that consistent at the dish lately, they have done a nice job hitting for power, ranking 10th in the majors in isolated power over the last week. That spells trouble for Morton, who has been tagged for 13 earned runs and five home runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 18 innings. Both bullpens have had their share of issues lately and overall this season. The opportunity should be there for the Phillies to tack on some late offense as Morton is unlikely to work deep into this ball game, certainly not as likely as Sanchez anyway. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Sunday.

The Brewers will go for the series sweep of the Nationals as they look to hand Washington its fifth straight loss on Sunday. I like the Nats' chances of keeping this game competitive at the very least, however. Jacob Misiorowski takes the ball for Milwaukee. The Brewers have lost his last two road starts, scoring a grand total of three runs in those contests. Last timeout, Misiorowski needed 80 pitches to get through just four innings against the Cubs. It's not as if Milwaukee's bullpen has been lights out. The Brewers relief corps has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over the last week. Brad Lord starts for Washington. He's made two starts since being re-installed in the rotation and has given up just two earned runs in 9 1/3 innings - the Nationals won both games. I realize the Brewers bats have been red hot but I'm not convinced it's sustainable. Take Washington +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Thursday.

The Rays have really been struggling at the plate lately but I think the presence of Marcus Stroman on the mound could help them out on Thursday. Current Rays hitters are a combined 18-for-58 (.310) with a healthy .848 OPS off of the right-hander. Stroman has struggled for the most part this season, logging a 5.54 FIP and 1.59 WHIP in eight starts. Meanwhile, Rays starter Ryan Pepiot has posted an 0-4 team record in his last four outings but has at least given his team a chance to win lately, lasting exactly six innings in five straight starts and allowing three earned runs or less in four of those. Current Yankees hitters are just 11-for-59 (.186) with a .577 OPS against him. Finally, we'll note that the Yankees usually sound bullpen has posted a 6.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last month and a 6.66 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over the last week. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Athletics let us down last night as they were defeated in lopsided fashion in the opener of this series in Texas. I do think they're worth backing again on Tuesday, however, as we're being afforded an insurance run at a very generous price. Yes, Jacob deGrom will start for Texas. It's not as if the Rangers have been invincible with the future Hall-of-Famer on the mound this season though. They've actually lost his last two starts and are just 5-5 when he takes the ball at home when factoring in the -1.5 run-line this season. The A's check into this contest ranked 11th in the majors in weighted on base average and number one in isolated power since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit in 29th and 21st in those two categories, respectively, over the same stretch. Also of note, the A's are top-10 in both categories against right-handed pitching this season. J.T. Ginn gets a spot start for the A's. Not a lot will be asked of him as he makes only his fifth start and 12th appearance of the campaign. Of note, the A's bullpen has held its own over the last month, sporting a collective 3.45 ERA and 1.12 WHIP while converting seven saves and blowing only one. Over the same stretch, the Rangers have recorded a 3.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with only five saves converted and five blown. The 'pens figure to play a role in the outcome here, noting that deGrom has worked beyond the sixth inning just once in his last six starts. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Detroit at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. 

The Pirates took the opener of this series 3-0 last night behind another strong pitching performance from their ace Paul Skenes. I look for them to build off that result in what figures to be a tightly-contested affair on Tuesday at PNC Park. Casey Mize will take the ball for the Tigers. He's 9-3 this season after going 9-19 in his first four big league seasons. Of note, Detroit has covered the -1.5 run-line just once in his last four road starts this year. Mitch Keller figures to be a key trade piece for the Pirates ahead of the trade deadline. He's put together quite an audition for potential suitors, allowing just four earned runs in 25 innings of work over his last four starts. Keller is having a career year by most metrics having posted a 3.33 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 20 starts. When factoring in the +1.5 run-line, the Buccos are 9-1 in his last 10 starts. The bullpen advantage in favor of the Tigers isn't as pronounced as you might think. Over the last month, the Pirates 'pen actually holds the edge with a 3.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (the Tigers 'pen has recorded a 4.86 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the same stretch). Also of note, the Tigers rank last in baseball in both weighted on base average and isolated power since the All-Star break. It's not that the Pirates have been much better at the plate, but they're not the ones laying an extra run here. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Twins dropped the opener of this series last night but I look for them to bounce back with a convincing victory on Saturday at Coors Field. Simeon Woods Richardson takes the ball for Minnesota. He's been effectively lately, guiding the Twins to victory in three of his last four starts, allowing just two earned runs on 12 hits in 19 2/3 innings of work over that stretch. Meanwhile, Antonio Senzatela has been one of the worst starts in baseball for Colorado, logging a 5.50 FIP and 1.89 WHIP. The Rockies have lost each of his last three outings as he's been tagged for 12 earned runs in 15 innings over that stretch. With the Twins ranking inside the top-10 in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last two weeks, we'll call for them to have a big night at the plate on Saturday. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Dodgers have to be thinking about delivering some payback in their first series following the All-Star break. Keep in mind, they were swept in a three-game series in Milwaukee earlier this month - that was when they were mired what turned into a long losing streak. They did shake out of their doldrums in San Francisco last weekend and I look for them to get this series off to a good start on Friday. Quinn Priester will get the start for Milwaukee. He's been quite a story for the Brewers after coming over from the Red Sox in a trade at the start of the season. Priester is 7-2 with a 4.23 FIP and 1.25 WHIP but we've seen the wheels come off a little bit lately as he's allowed nine earned runs in 21 innings over his last four outings. This isn't a favorable matchup for the right-hander as he takes on a Dodgers lineup that ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average and fourth in isolated power against right-handed pitching this season and is in line for a breakout performance returning home following the break. Tyler Glasnow will get his second start since returning from injury for the Dodgers. His first outing came against these same Brewers and he pitched pretty well, logging five innings of two-hit ball, alllowing just one unearned run in an eventual extra innings defeat. I don't think Glasnow will be asked to do too much in his second start back. He does face a Brewers club that cooled off a bit prior to the break and checks in ranked 10th in the majors in wOBA but just 19th in ISO over the last two weeks. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Seattle at 10:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Mariners cruised to a 6-0 win to open this series yesterday. Not much has come easy for Seattle this season, however, and I look for it to face a lot more resistance in Saturday's contest. Rookie Mike Burrows has quietly pitched well for the Pirates this season. Note that Pittsburgh is 5-2 over his last seven starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. He has given up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings over his last two outings. Luis Castillo counters for the Mariners. He comes off a strong start in Texas but had been struggling prior to that, allowing 14 earned runs in 22 innings over his previous four outings. The Pirates bullpen can hang with the Mariners in my opinion so we'll grab the insurance run in a game that could very well go down to the wire. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Orioles have been playing better baseball lately but will enter this series riding a two-game losing streak after dropping back-to-back games in Texas. We'll back them with an insurance run on Friday as they send Charlie Morton to the hill against Spencer Strider. Morton has quietly turned things around and Baltimore has gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts when factoring in the +1.5 run-line, winning five of those games outright. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time Morton allowed more than three earned runs. Spencer Strider has been solid for the Braves but I think a lack of run support could bite him here. Note that Atlanta ranks 21st in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last week. Meanwhile, Baltimore checks in fourth and third, respectively, in those two categories over the same stretch. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the White Sox on Wednesday as they look to bounce back from last night's blowout loss against the Dodgers. Chicago actually checks in ranked a respectable ninth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The White Sox will step in against Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw on Wednesday. They rank 12th in the majors in isolated power against southpaw pitching this season. Kershaw has made eight starts this season with the Dodgers winning only half of those games by more than a single run. Sean Burke will counter for Chicago. He enters in good form having allowed just one earned run over his last two starts, covering a span of 10 1/3 innings of work. Behind Burke is a White Sox bullpen that has posted a 1.77 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Chicago +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the Cubs on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday. Cleveland will hand the ball to Tanner Bibee. While he did pitch reasonably well over six innings in his most recent start, that was at home and the Guardians still lost that game 6-0 against Toronto. Cleveland's offense ranks among the worst in the majors - only Colorado has been worse in terms of weighted on base average over the last week. The Guardians will be up against Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga on Wednesday. He was solid over five economical innings (he needed only 77 pitches) in his return from the I.L. last week, allowing just one hit and no earned runs against the Cardinals. Even on an off night at the dish last night, the Cubs still produced five runs and won by three. They rank seventh in baseball in wOBA and fifth in isolated power over the last week. Also of note, Chicago's bullpen owns a collective 0.44 ERA and 0.64 WHIP over the last week while Cleveland's 'pen has posted a 6.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Cubs on Tuesday as they open a series with the Guardians at Wrigley Field. Chicago checks in off a loss while Cleveland has dropped four games in a row. While the Guardians do sit in second place in the A.L. Central, they've been a big disappointment this season. Of note, they've been outscored by 47 runs overall this season while the Cubs have outscored the opposition by 104 runs - only the Yankees have been better in that department. Chicago also owns the starting pitching advantage in this game with left-hander Matthew Boyd going against Gavin Williams of Cleveland. Boyd is on a terrific run right now having allowed just six earned runs over his last six starts, covering a span of 36 1/3 innings of work. Behind Boyd is a Cubs bullpen that has been lights out lately, posting a sparkling 0.40 ERA and 0.63 WHIP over the last week. In stark contrast, the Guardians 'pen owns an 8.85 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Athletics +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Monday.

Athletics starter Jacob Lopez hasn't gotten enough credit for his recent stretch. He's faced the Royals, Astros and Tigers in succession and has given up just one earned run in 19 innings of work and that's with two of those starts coming on the road. Given the way he's settled in, I look for the A's to hang tough at Steinbrenner Field on Monday. Drew Rasmussen has admittedly pitched well for the Rays this season. With that being said, he hasn't lasted beyond 5 1/3 innings in any of his last three starts and the Rays are just 2-2 over his last four outings when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Note that Tampa Bay's bullpen has imploded lately, sporting a 9.33 ERA and 1.86 WHIP over the last week - leaving the back door wide open should we need it with the insurance run in our back pocket. Take the Athletics +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins took the opener of this series in 'upset' fashion last night and I look for them to give the Giants all they can handle again on Wednesday. The knee-jerk reaction here would be to back San Francisco with its ace Logan Webb on the mound. As good as Webb has been this season, the Giants have won just one of his last six starts by more than a single run. On the flip side, Edward Cabrera held a tough Phillies lineup to just one earned run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings last time out and the Marlins are 6-4 in his last 10 outings with all four of those losses coming by a single run. In what projects as a low-scoring affair and with the bullpen matchup a virtual wash based on current form, we'll grab the insurance run with the visiting Marlins. Take Miami +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Friday as they look to bounce back following last night's extra innings defeat against the Athletics in Sacramento. That was an up-and-down series for Houston but I look for it to settle in on Friday night in Anaheim. The pitching matchup favors the Astros heavily with Hunter Brown taking the ball against Yusei Kikuchi. Brown has been terrific this season, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.93 WHIP. Meanwhile, Kikuchi has been all over the place with a 3.05 ERA but a 4.19 FIP and 1.48 WHIP. Houston has absolutely torched southpaw pitching this season and I think it does more than enough to cover the run-line in this spot. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado +1.5 runs over Arizona at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Rockies in the opener of this N.L. West series on Friday. The case can be made that the Rockies are playing better than the Diamondbacks right now. Off a winning series in Washington and off a hard-fought extra innings loss in yesterday's series finale, we'll call for Colorado to rebound at home on Friday. Zac Gallen has not been good for the D'Backs this season, posting a 4.90 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while going 4-8 in 15 starts. Behind him is an Arizona bullpen that has been even worse than Colorado's, including of late as it has logged a 7.84 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last week. Austin Gomber gets the start for the Rockies. He had a productive season debut last week, going five shutout innings of two-hit ball. Look for a competitive affair on Friday at Coors Field. Take Colorado +1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over New York at 7:15 pm et on Friday. 

The Mets are reeling right now and there's really no end in sight with this difficult series in Philadelphia followed by another series against the Braves, who just handled them easily. New York is in another tough spot on Friday as it goes up against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Since a rough outing at home against the Braves on May 29th, he's settled down, allowing just two earned runs on seven hits while striking out 16 and walking just one in 12 innings over his last two starts. On the season, Wheeler owns Cy Young Award-caliber numbers with a 2.76 FIP and 0.89 WHIP. New York will turn to Blade Tidwell for his second start. His first one didn't go well at all as he was lit up for nine hits and six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings. New York has precious few options on the mound right now noting that its bullpen has also struggled to the tune of a 5.92 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over the last week. Phillies roll. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

This has been a back-and-forth series so far with the Rays most recently rallying from an early 8-0 deficit to take last night's contest in what was a wild affair at Steinbrenner Field. We'll call for the Orioles to bounce back on Thursday and will grab the insurance run at a reasonable price. Charlie Morton takes the ball for Baltimore. He's settled down since returning to the starting rotation, allowing just six earned runs in 20 innings of work. Of those six earned runs, four of them came in a start against the Athletics at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Of note, Morton has allowed just one home run in his last four outings. Drew Rasmussen got off to a red hot start for the Rays this season but has shown some possible signs of regression over his last two starts. Last time out he lasted only five innings, allowing four earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs, against the Mets at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Now he starts on short rest (four days) against an Orioles lineup that has shown some life lately. While the O's bullpen is usually a concern, they have held up reasonably well lately, sporting a 3.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Diego +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Padres at a reasonable price on Wednesday night in Los Angeles. Stephen Kolek will start for San Diego. He's had a rocky season so far, logging a 4.43 FIP and 1.32 WHIP across eight starts. With that being said, he has held the opposition to just under 3.9 runs per nine innings and while the Padres bullpen has struggled lately, it still owns terrific overall numbers and has been pressed into duty for just 19 1/3 innings over the last week so the arms should be relatively fresh for this one. The Dodgers will give Emmet Sheehan his first start of the season after he missed the entire 2024 campaign following Tommy John surgery. Sheehan delivered mixed results in his rookie season in 2023 and draws a tough first assignment against a Padres club that will be desperate to bounce back following consecutive defeats to open this series. While the Dodgers bullpen behind Sheehan has been good, it has also worked nearly 30 innings over the last week so fatigue could become an issue in the coming days. Take San Diego +1.5 runs (8*).

A.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday.

After dropping the first two games of this series and mired in an incredible hitting slump, I look for the Yankees to bounce back in a big way on Wednesday. Jack Kochanowicz gets the start for the Angels. He checks in sporting a lofty 5.62 FIP And 1.59 WHIP. Note that New York is top three in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season. Ryan Yarbrough counters for New York. He sports a 4.39 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and has allowed 2.5 fewer hits and 1.1 fewer walks per nine innings while also striking out 2.0 more batters compared to Kochanowicz. Of note, the Angels rank next-to-last in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. With the Yankees bullpen having posted a 0.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week, we'll confidently lay the extra run with New York in this spot. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

I don't see any considerable advantage for the Dodgers in this matchup, not enough to warrant such a reasonable price to grab an insurance run with the visiting Giants. San Francisco will be looking to bounce back from last night's beatdown and I look for them to at the very least take this one down to the final at-bat. Kyle Harrison starts for the Giants against Dustin May of the Dodgers. Their numbers have been almost identical this season although Harrison has allowed slightly fewer hits and walks per nine innings while also striking out 0.9 more batters per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash in terms of recent form and the Giants relief corps has been significantly better on the road than the Dodgers 'pen has been at home this season. Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves exploded late in an eventual blowout win over the Rockies to open this series last night. We'll call for Atlanta to beat up on Colorado again on Saturday afternoon. The Rockies bullpen is a mess right now having posted an 11.42 ERA and 2.08 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last week. Meanwhile, the Braves 'pen has logged a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while needing to work only 13 innings over that same stretch. The starting pitching matchup favors the Braves here as well. While Spencer Strider hasn't been at his best since returning from injury he still owns better numbers than Rockies starter Chase Dollander. Note that Dollander has allowed a whopping 7.5 runs per nine innings in 10 starts (to go along with a 6.30 FIP and 1.55 WHIP). Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:15 pm et on Friday.

We'll lay the run-line with the Braves on Friday as they open a series against the Rockies at home. Colorado is fresh off a come-from-behind 8-7 walk-off win over San Francisco yesterday. There are still major concerns when it comes to this cellar-dwelling club, however. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies on Friday. To say he's struggled this season would be an understatement. Marquez owns a 4.46 FIP and 1.68 WHIP and has allowed a ridiculous 7.9 runs per nine innings in 13 starts. Bryce Elder certainly hasn't been great for the Braves, but he's been considerably better than Marquez with a 4.30 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing 4.1 fewer hits and 0.5 fewer walks while striking out 1.8 more per nine innings this season. The bullpen edge goes to the Braves as well. Atlanta's 'pen has posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.73 WHIP over the last week while the Rockies relief corps owns a 7.84 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

We'll lay the extra run with the Astros on Thursday as they wrap up their series with the White Sox in Houston. Chicago will hand the ball to Davis Martin as he makes his 13th start and 14th appearance of the season. Martin hasn't been terrible but that's about where the compliments end. He owns a 4.55 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while allowing 4.1 runs per nine innings. Framber Valdez will counter for Houston. He has recorded a 3.08 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just under 3.1 runs per nine frames. The Astros have a considerable edge in terms of the bullpen matchup as their relief corps has posted a collective 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the last week compared to the White Sox 3.68 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. On the season, Chicago has converted just three saves while blowing five on the road while Houston has converted 11 and blown only 1 at home. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Giants have taken the first two games of this series and I expect them to complete the sweep in convincing fashion on Thursday. Hayden Birdsong gets his fifth start (16th appearance) of teh season for the Giants. He's been serviceable to be sure this season, logging a 3.60 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while yielding just a shade over 3.6 runs per nine innings. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela checks in sporting an inflated 5.39 FIP and 1.97 WHIP while giving up north of 7.5 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest with the Giants relief corps having posted a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with three saves converted and one blown over the last week. Colorado's 'pen owns an ugly 9.35 ERA and 1.96 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the Giants run-line last night as they rallied for a 6-5 victory at Coors Field. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Wednesday, however, as San Francisco holds an even bigger pitching advantage. Robbie Ray will take the ball for the Giants. He's enjoying a renaissance campaign of sorts having posted a 3.04 FIP and 1.07 WHIP while giving up only 2.4 runs per nine innings. Contrast that with Rockies starter Kyle Freeland who owns a respectable 3.55 FIP but a 1.54 WHIP and has been tagged for just shy of 6.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on current form. Giants relievers have combined to log a 1.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with four saves converted and none blown (while working only 22 1/3 innings) over the last week. The Rockies 'pen has recorded a 7.01 ERA and 1.60 WHIP with one save converted and two blown over that same stretch (and they've been pressed into duty for 25 2/3 innings). Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Giants will send Kyle Harrison to the mound against rookie Carson Palmquist as they open a divisional series in Denver on Tuesday. Harrison has been quietly effective since returning to the Giants rotation, logging a 3.55 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Palmquist as he has worked 18 big league innings, posting a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP while yielding a whopping 8.0 runs per nine frames. As you would expect, the bullpen advantage goes to the Giants as well as their relief corps has posted a 1.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last week (and a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 10 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season) while the Rockies 'pen has recorded a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP (and a 4.87 ERA and 1.49 WHIP with only four saves converted and four blown at home) over the same stretch. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the half-run of insurance with the White Sox in the first five innings on Tuesday as they open a series in Houston. Shane Smith has been quietly effective starting for Chicago this season, posting a 3.52 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while giving up just under 3.5 runs per nine innings. While Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has pitched well lately, he still owns a pedestrian 3.93 FIP and 1.40 WHIP on the campaign and gives up just under 5.2 runs per nine frames. While there's no advantage in terms of the bullpen, we'll stick to the first five innings and back the White Sox to stay on level terms. Take Chicago +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Washington +0.5 runs first five innings over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The argument can certainly be made that the Nationals have the starting pitching advantage in this contest with MacKenzie Gore taking the ball against Griffin Canning of the Mets. Gore checks in with a terrific 2.58 FIP and 1.14 WHIP and gives up just under 2.9 runs per nine innings on the season. Meanwhile, Canning has posted a 3.78 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. Admittedly, Canning has limited the damage, allowing just 3.2 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is pretty much even based on current form and as a whole, the Nationals relief corps has struggled this season so we'll back Washington plus the half-run in the first five innings only on Tuesday. Take Washington +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday.

While the Orioles have been playing better lately, I expect them to struggle - at least in the early stages - of Tuesday's series-opener against the Tigers. Detroit will give Brant Hurter a start, likely in an 'opener' role. Hurter has been terrific for Detroit this season, posting a 3.46 FIP and 0.96 WHIP while giving up less than 1.9 runs per nine innings. Cade Povich will counter for Baltimore. While he's shown some improvement lately he still owns a 4.26 FIP and 1.47 WHIP on the campaign, having allowed just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. By grabbing the half-run with the Tigers in the first five innings only we'll look to avoid a suddenly red hot Orioles bullpen. The Baltimore relief corps has logged a sparkling 0.42 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over the last week. Take Detroit +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Red Sox answered back after dropping the opener of this series but I look for a response from the Yankees, at least in the early going in Sunday night's series finale. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for New York. He's been terrific this season, recording a 2.93 FIP and 0.93 WHIP, firmly planting him in the A.L. Cy Young Award conversation even if it is still early. Rodon has allowed just over 2.7 runs per nine innings. Hunter Dobbins will counter for Boston. He checks in sporting a 3.38 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing just under 4.3 runs per nine frames. The bullpen advantage does go to the Red Sox based on current form so we'll stick with laying the half-run in the first five innings only with the Yankees. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Angels on Sunday afternoon. George Kirby gets the start for the visiting Mariners. He's been downright awful since returning from injury, logging a 5.63 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in three starts. Over that stretch he has allowed a ridiculous 8.6 runs per nine innings. Tyler Anderson counters for Los Angeles. He checks in sporting a 4.98 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Anderson has allowed just a shade over 4.4 runs per nine frames which is about par for the course for the veteran left-hander. The bullpen advantage goes to the Angels based on current form as they've posted a 1.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last week compared to the Mariners' 3.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants delivered a walk-off win for us yesterday thanks to Matt Chapman's ninth inning two-run home run. We'll back San Francisco again on Sunday, this time grabbing the insurance run. Landen Roupp will start for the Giants. He checks in with a 3.47 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the campaign, allowing 4.3 runs per nine innings. Spencer Strider will counter for Atlanta. He owns a 6.38 FIP and 1.37 WHIP and has given up just shy of 5.7 runs per nine innings. We'll give the bullpen advantage to the Giants based on recent form as they've posted a collective 1.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last week compared to the Braves' 6.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP (with no saves converted and two blown over that stretch). Take San Francisco +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday.

We'll once again back the Mets and lay the half-run in the first five innings at a price that I believe should be even higher. Tylor Megill takes the ball for New York. He's been quietly effective in 12 starts this season, logging a 3.12 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while yielding just under 4.4 runs per nine innings. While that last number is not impressive at all, consider Rockies starter Chase Dollander has given up north of 6.9 runs per nine innings to go along with a 5.97 FIP and 1.44 WHIP. The bullpen advantage isn't nearly as obvious as it may seem so we'll stick with the first five innings once again. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings over Los Angeles at 2:15 pm et on Sunday.

The Dodgers have dropped the first two games in this series as their offense has run dry, scoring just a single run in those contests. Here, we'll fade Los Angeles in the first five innings as it hands the ball to a struggling Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw owns a 5.43 FIP and 1.66 WHIP in four starts since returning from injury. He has allowed over 6.3 runs per nine innings. Michael McGreevy makes just his second appearance for the Cardinals after a nice long relief stint of 5 1/3 innings. While he's likely to have a short leash in this one, I expect St. Louis' bats to get to Kershaw and at least keep this one level after five frames. Take St. Louis +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings over Miami at 12:10 pm et on Sunday.

After a wild game between these two teams yesterday we'll call for things to settle down and for the Rays to hold a lead after five innings on Sunday afternoon. Drew Rasmussen has been lights out for the Rays so far this season, logging a 3.29 FIP and 0.87 WHIP. While the Tampa Bay bullpen has been strong as well, this particular matchup is a virtual wash based on current form so we'll stick with the first five frames only. Note that the Marlins will give the start to likely 'opener' Anthony Veneziano. He owns a 5.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP so far this season (in 21 appearances). Take Tampa Bay -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings over Baltimore at 10:05 pm et on Saturday.

While the Orioles own the bullpen advantage based on recent form, it's the Athletics that should be able to hang tough early with Luis Severino taking the ball against Charlie Morton. Severino has posted a 3.41 FIP and 1.27 WHIP this season and while he has struggled at home, I do think he can figure it out over time. Morton comes off a couple of quality outings but still owns a 5.24 FIP and 1.58 WHIP on the campaign and has allowed more hits, walks and home runs per nine innings compared to Severino this season. In fact, Morton is allowing north of 6.5 runs per nine innings. Take the Athletics +0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the Mets laying the half-run in the first five innings at Coors Field on Saturday as we're being offered a price that should be even higher in my opinion. Clay Holmes gets the start for New York. He owns a 3.88 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 12 starts this season and has allowed just 3.3 runs per nine innings. It's a much different story for Rockies rookie Carson Palmquist. He owns a 6.24 FIP and 1.83 WHIP in four starts, yielding a whopping 9.0 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup is much closer than you might think based on recent form so we'll stick with the 'first five innings' here. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Nationals took the opener of this series last night but we'll call for the Rangers to answer back behind their ace, Jacob deGrom, on Saturday. DeGrom has logged a 3.64 FIP and 0.98 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.3 runs per nine innings. Mitchell Parker takes the ball for Washington. He owns a 4.42 FIP and 1.31 WHIP and while he has pitched better at Nationals Park, I think the Rangers lineup is in line for a bounce-back performance here. Note that the Nationals bullpen has been awful all season at home and owns a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last week. Over the same stretch, the Rangers 'pen has posted a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Take Texas -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -1.5 runs first five innings over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday.

The Rockies rose up and swept the Marlins in a road series earlier this week but I expect their success to be short-lived. We'll lay the extra run with the Mets in the first five innings on Friday night at Coors Field as they own a considerable starting pitching advantage. Kodai Senga will take the ball for New York. He owns a 3.21 FIP and 1.18 WHIP while allowing just a shade over 2.0 runs per nine innings so far this season. That's in stark contrast to Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela. The veteran right-hander owns a 5.41 FIP and 1.98 WHIP and has allowed 8.1 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is actually less decisive than you might think, certainly in terms of recent form. We'll stick to the first five innings run-line as a result. Take New York -1.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Pirates as they look to rebound following a tough series against the Astros. The Phillies are licking their own wounds after consecutive bad series' against the Brewers and Blue Jays. Joe Ross will take the ball for Philadelphia on Friday. He owns a 4.73 FIP and 1.28 WHIP in 29 innings of relief work this season, allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Pirates starter Bailey Falter has been more effective, posting a 4.06 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.8 runs per nine frames. The bullpens are a virtual wash both in terms of recent form and home-road splits this season. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox as they head to the Bronx to face the Yankees on Friday. The starting pitching matchup features Walker Buehler for the Sox and Will Warren for the Yankees. While Warren started hot, he's faded recently. On the season he owns a 3.12 FIP but a 1.42 WHIP and has given up north of 5.5 runs per nine innings. Buehler has logged a 4.73 FIP and 1.31 WHIP but has yielded just 4.4 runs per nine frames. The bullpen matchup is no contest based on recent form. The Sox 'pen has posted a sparkling 0.96 ERA and 0.68 WHIP over the last week and has also held up well on the road this season with a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Yanks relief corps' has posted a 7.29 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over the last week and owns a collective WHIP north of 1.30 at home this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York -0.5 runs first five innings over Cleveland at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.

We want to steer clear of the Yankees fading bullpen right now (8.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over the last week) but we will back New York laying a half-run in the first five innings as it has a decisive starting pitching advantage. Max Fried is having a phenomenal first season with the Bronx Bombers. He has posted a 2.87 FIP and 0.97 WHIP through 12 outings. Contrast that with Guardians highly-touted prospect Slade Cecconi (who came over in the Josh Naylor trade) who has posted a 6.07 FIP and 1.44 WHIP and has been at his worst over his last couple of starts. We'll look to avoid a strong Guardians bullpen that has logged a 1.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last week. Take New York -0.5 runs first five innings (8*).

My selection is on Toronto +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 3:05 pm et on Thursday.

There's very little separating these two clubs right now and not surprisingly they've split the first two games of this series. We'll grab the insurance run with the Blue Jays in Thursday's matinee series finale. The two starting pitchers are almost carbon copies of one another with Jesus Luzardo going for the Phillies against Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays. Bassitt does bring better current form into this start with Luzardo having allowed a ridiculous 12 earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings against the Brewers. Philadelphia has lost his last two starts. The bullpen advantage goes to Toronto as it has logged a sparkling 1.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven days. Philadelphia's 'pen checks in sporting a 5.33 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over that stretch. Take Toronto +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on New York +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Mets took the opener of this series on Monday before the Dodgers answered last night. Both games have been incredibly tight. We'll call for another tightly-contested affair on Wednesday and grab the insurance run with the visiting Mets. Let's get the bullpens out of the way first. It's a virtual wash in terms of current form. In general the Mets 'pen has been solid on the road with a 3.19 ERA and 1.39 WHIP with eight saves converted and four blown. That's an identical save ratio compared to the Dodgers at home. Griffin Canning starts for New York on Wednesday. He's quietly putting together a solid campaign having posted a 4.07 FIP and 1.40 WHIP while limiting the damage allowing just under 3.6 runs per nine innings. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has returned form injury to post a 6.01 FIP and 1.45 WHIP in six starts, yielding 5.2 runs per nine innings. Take New York +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Orioles on Tuesday night. Baltimore will give the start to Tomoyuki Sugano. He checks in sporting a 4.78 FIP but a much better 1.06 WHIP through 11 starts. It's been a rough go for Mariners starter George Kirby since making his debut after a stint on the I.L. Kirby owns a 7.46 FIP and 1.85 WHIP through two outings. Seattle's bullpen behind Kirby hasn't been good lately, posting a 6.65 ERA and 1.78 WHIP with three blown saves over the last seven days. While the O's 'pen has only managed to record a 4.70 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the same stretch it did convert three saves while blowing only one. Also of note, the O's 'pen has logged just 15 1/3 innings over the last week. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Los Angeles +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday.

We'll grab the insurance run with the Angels as they send Yusei Kikuchi to the hill against Brayan Bello of the Red Sox on Tuesday. Kikuchi has posted a 4.36 FIP and 1.52 WHIP this season. While those numbers aren't great, they're better than what Bello is offering with a 5.05 FIP and 1.63 WHIP. The two bullpens are a virtual wash over the last week with one exception, that being the fact that Red Sox relievers have logged just shy of 28 innings, entering overworked territory (the Angels 'pen has pitched just 21 1/3 innings over that stretch). Take Los Angeles +1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

Nationals starter Mitchell Parker is trending in the wrong direction right now. Going back to April 27th, Parker has allowed 6, 5, 4, 4, 3 and 4 earned runs over his last six starts, lasting more than five innings in just one of those outings. While the Diamondbacks have dropped the first two games of this series, their offense did wake up late in last night's game, scoring seven runs to at least make things respectable after digging an inexplicable 10-run deficit in the first inning. Corbin Burnes will be tasked with the job of helping stop the D'Backs slide on Sunday and I like his chances of doing so. Burnes has posted a sub-2.00 ERA at home this season and despite an 0-2 team record in his last two outings, is in good form having allowed three earned runs or less in seven straight starts. I also like the fact that Burnes is capable of working deep into games (he's lasted seven innings in three of his last four outings), perhaps giving some relief to Arizona's struggling bullpen (the Nats haven't been much better in that department). We'll lay the extra run with the Snakes. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the Dodgers -1.5 runs over the Angels at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Dodgers starting pitching woes have bitten them in the first two games in this series. Last night, Clayton Kershaw made his long-awaited return to the mound and struggled as the Angels took a second straight game to open this series.

The good news is, the Dodgers will be handing the ball to Tony Gonsolin for his fourth start of the campaign on Sunday. The right hander has seemingly regained his form, logging a 2.85 FIP and 1.06 WHIP, most recently silencing a red hot Diamondbacks lineup, on the road no less, over five innings in an 8-1 victory last weekend. Note that current Angels hitters are a woeful 9-for-42 (.214) with a .671 OPS against Gonsolin.

Of course, the later innings should belong to the Dodgers as well as they rank second in the majors in bullpen xFIP this season while the Angels sit in 25th.

Finally, I'll point out that current Dodgers hitters are a healthy 28-for94 (.298) with an .878 OPS against Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi. He's gotten off to a disastrous start with his new team this season, posting a 4.63 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while going 0-4 in nine outings. Take the Dodgers -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Clay Holmes has turned out to be quite an acquisition for the Mets. Since opening the season with a 3-1 loss in Houston, Holmes has recorded a perfect 7-0 team record in his last seven starts with the last six wins all coming by at least two runs. It's easy to forget that he was an All-Star selection as a reliever with the Yankees in two of the last three seasons, including last year. So far this season, Holmes has made a successful conversion to starter, logging a 2.61 FIP and 1.24 WHIP. Note that current Pirates hitters have gone just 4-for-20 (.200) against him with a .704 OPS (thanks in large part to a home run off the bat of Andrew McCutchen.

Bailey Falter will counter for Pittsburgh on Wednesday. He's been terrific over his last two starts but both of those came at home. On the season he's 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA at home but 0-2 with a 6.05 ERA on the road. Falter owns a career 4.55 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. Current Mets hitters are a healthy 21-for-74 (.284) with a .752 OPS against him.

While the Mets rank top-five in the majors in weighted on base average this season the Pirates check in 29th - ahead of only the White Sox. It's a similar story in terms of bullpen xFIP - one of our other favorite metrics - with the Mets ranking fifth in baseball and the Pirates 22nd. After a tightly-contested affair last night, look for New York to open things up on Wednesday. Take New York -1.5 runs.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Pittsburgh at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers find themselves in an unfamiliar spot — trailing in the N.L. West and mired in a rare slump with losses in four of their last five games. However, Saturday presents a strong opportunity to get back on track. Mitch Keller will toe the rubber for the Pirates and while he's a capable arm, he's consistently allowed traffic on the basepaths this season, posting a 3.92 FIP and 1.36 WHIP across 28 innings. His career numbers against the Dodgers are concerning as well, with current L.A. hitters batting .287 with a robust .892 OPS against him, including four different players having already taken him deep.

Roki Sasaki gets the start for Los Angeles and seems to be finding his rhythm, coming off a sharp outing against a tough Texas lineup where he allowed just two earned runs on two hits over six innings (needing only 78 pitches to do so). Facing a Pirates offense that's cooled off over the last couple of games should help him continue to build confidence.

Importantly, the Dodgers also hold a significant edge in the bullpen, with a top-five ranking in xFIP compared to the Pirates' 19th. Expect L.A.'s lineup to finally break out against Keller and for Sasaki and the bullpen to hold the Bucco bats in check.

Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs. Projected score: Dodgers 6, Pirates 2.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Wednesday.

This sets up as a favorable get-right spot for the Dodgers, who enter the finale having cooled slightly at the plate but still rank second in the majors in wOBA against right-handed pitching and remain top-10 in offensive production over the last week. That’s important against Nationals starter Jake Irvin, who has been shaky out of the gate with a 6.87 FIP and 1.70 WHIP across 10 innings and showed similar vulnerability over a much larger sample last season. Dodgers bats have fared well against Irvin historically, going 19-for-57 (.333) with a strong .886 OPS.

Los Angeles will counter with Landon Knack, making his first start of the season. Knack has pitched only two innings so far this year, but was effective, allowing just one of seven batters to reach. He’s not being asked to eat innings, which plays into the strength of the Dodgers bullpen, which currently ranks third in MLB in xFIP. That’s a stark contrast to a Nationals bullpen that ranks 29th, ahead of only Colorado.

Washington has been swinging the bats better lately but still finds itself outmatched in every phase of the game here. With the Dodgers enjoying the clear edge both on the mound and at the plate, I expect them to take control and cruise to a multi-run win.

Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs. Projected score: Dodgers 7, Nationals 3.

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Atlanta at 10:10 pm ET on Monday.

The Braves are struggling at the plate, ranking ahead of only the Twins in weighted on-base average early in the season. Coming off a four-game sweep in San Diego, this isn't the ideal spot for them to turn things around, especially against Dodgers ace Tyler Glasnow.

Glasnow had an excellent but injury-shortened 2024 campaign, posting a 2.90 FIP and 0.95 WHIP. He has dominated the current Braves lineup, limiting them to just 11 hits in 62 at-bats (.177) with a .507 OPS. Notably, Atlanta hitters have managed only three extra-base hits (all doubles) against him in that span.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers enter this matchup red-hot, and I expect them to take advantage of an Atlanta team that has yet to find its rhythm offensively. Given the starting pitching edge and the way Los Angeles is swinging the bats, I'll confidently lay the extra run.

Take Los Angeles -1.5. Projected score: Dodgers 6, Braves 3.

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Diego at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

The Braves have dropped the first two games of this series, but both contests were tightly contested. I expect them to bounce back in convincing fashion on Saturday behind a strong effort from Spencer Schwellenbach. The young right-hander put together a promising rookie campaign last season, posting a 3.29 FIP and 1.04 WHIP across 21 starts. He carried that momentum into the spring, logging a 3.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 21 innings of work. While he has limited exposure to Padres hitters, they have struggled in a small sample, going just 4-for-23 (.174) with a .435 OPS against him. Atlanta’s bullpen is also in relatively good shape, with only Dylan Lee having worked the first two games of the series, and his workload (21 pitches) was light enough that he could be available again on Saturday.

San Diego will send Randy Vasquez to the mound, and while he showed flashes of potential last season, he’ll be facing a Braves lineup that has had success against him in the past. Current Atlanta hitters have gone 11-for-39 (.282) with five extra-base hits and a .795 OPS against Vasquez, suggesting they match up well against him. Additionally, the Padres' bullpen has been worked hard in the first two games of this series, with three key relievers having pitched in both contests, each throwing over 35 pitches. That could leave San Diego vulnerable late in the game if Vasquez isn’t able to pitch deep. Look for the Braves to capitalize on their edge both on the mound and at the plate as they snap their mini skid in dominant fashion.

Take Atlanta -1.5 runs. Projected score: Atlanta 6, San Diego 3.

My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Detroit at 2:35 pm et on Wednesday.

I like the way this matchup sets up for the Astros as they send Hunter Brown to the hill against Tyler Holton of the Tigers in what amounts to a 'bullpen game' from Detroit.

Brown has held current Tigers hitters to just 17-for-64 (.266) at the plate with one home run and an OPS of .672. The young right-hander turned in a terrific regular season, logging a 3.58 FIP and 1.27 WHIP in 30 starts.

While the Tigers bullpen has been solid, they did have to use four relievers in yesterday's series-opening victory.

Note that Detroit ranks 20th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days while Houston sits 10th. Rather than lay the heavy chalk, we'll lay the extra run with Houston. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Giants have lit up the Diamondbacks through the first two games of this series but I look for Arizona to answer back on Wednesday night.

While San Francisco does rank sixth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days, it's not as if Arizona is far behind, ranking eighth over that stretch.

Mason Black will get the start for the Giants on Wednesday. San Francisco has lost three of his last four starts and he owns a 5.36 FIP and 1.52 WHIP on the campaign.

Zac Gallen counters for Arizona. While he hasn't necessarily had his best stuff over his last couple of outings, the D'Backs have kept on winning with him on the mound. Note that they're a perfect 4-0 in his last four trips to the hill. Current Giants hitters are just 25-for-115 (.217) with a .642 OPS against him. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Dodgers won on a Shohei Ohtani walk-off grand slam last night, saving their run-line backers on the game's final pitch. I look for Saturday's result to be a little more straight-forward as Los Angeles sends Clayton Kershaw to the hill against Taj Bradley of Tampa Bay.

Kershaw is locked in right now, having allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts. On the season he has posted a 3.00 FIP and 1.25 WHIP, making only five starts to date. I see that as a positive as he has a live arm down the stretch. Of course, it helps that the Dodgers bullpen will have all hands on deck after using just three relievers for 35 pitches last night (and following an off day on Thursday). Kershaw will be happy to be facing the Rays as he's held their current hitters to just six hits in 32 at-bats (.188) with a .438 OPS.

Bradley is approaching his career-high in innings pitched (he'll likely eclipse that mark on Saturday). We've seen him sputter lately, allowing a whopping 18 earned runs over his last four outings. Note that Tampa Bay lost all four of those contests with each defeat coming by at least three runs. Current Dodgers hitters are 4-for-14 (.286) off of Bradley with a .714 OPS. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (10*).

N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over New York at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The Mets are hitting right now and that was on full display in last night's series-opening win here in San Diego. The Padres have been hot at the plate as well, however, and I look for them to bounce back on Friday night.

Paul Blackburn gets the start for New York. A key piece brought over prior to the trade deadline, he's been mostly effective in his four starts since joining the Mets. However, it's worth noting that he's faced the Angels, Rockies, A's and Marlins. Current Padres hitters are 7-for-21 (.333) off of Blackburn with a .745 OPS. San Diego ranks eighth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days.

Joe Musgrove will take the ball for San Diego. He continues to get stretched out after being on the I.L. for a couple of months. In two starts since rejoining the rotation, Musgrove has allowed just one earned run in 8 2/3 innings of work. Current Mets hitters are 26-for-121 (.215) off of the veteran right-hander with a .663 OPS.

Perhaps no team boasts as deep of a bullpen as the Padres and they look like they'll have all hands on deck after using just two relievers last night. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Cincinnati at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Reds cruised to victory in the opener of this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Tuesday at Rogers Centre.

Carson Spiers gets the start for Cincinnati. The wheels have come off a little bit over his last three starts as he has been tagged for 13 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings pitched. The Jays have actually been heating up at the plate lately, checking in 12th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days (that's just one spot behind the Reds).

Jose Berrios will counter for Toronto. He has allowed one earned run in seven innings in three of his last four outings. Berrios owns terrific career numbers against current Reds hitters as they've gone 11-for-46 (.239) off of him with a .553 OPS.

The Jays bullpen enters in better shape as the Reds relief corps includes three pitchers that have thrown 30+ pitches over the last three days. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

Braves starter Charlie Morton made his big league debut back in 2008. He can navigate a rough stretch at this stage of the season and it's worth noting that he's pitched just 114 2/3 innings so far this year - this after working 140+ innings in six of the last seven seasons. In other words, I still think there's plenty of life in his arm and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back from a miserable outing against the Brewers last week. Keep in mind, he's just one start removed from allowing no earned runs over six innings in a 4-2 victory over the Marlins. The Giants have been considerably weaker offensively against right-handed pitching compared to left-handed this season, ranking 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average vs. righties.

The Braves have climbed inside the top-10 in baseball in wOBA against left-handed pitching (at the time of writing) and they'll face another one in Kyle Harrison on Tuesday. Also note that Atlanta ranks top-three in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days (also at the time of writing). Harrison has eclipsed the 100-inning mark in his sophomore campaign (he worked only 34 2/3 big league innings last year). Over Harrison's last two starts he has given up eight earned runs on 11 hits over 8 1/3 innings. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 6:40 pm et on Monday.

The Cubs have turned things around and even if a Wild Card spot is virtually out of reach, I look for them to continue to relish playing the role of spoiler down the stretch.

Chicago has shown steady improvement offensively, rising in the weighted on base average rankings over the last 30, 14 and 7 days. In fact, over the last week, the Cubs rank seventh in the majors in that category. That's in stark contrast to the Guardians, who have been scuffing their heels offensively for weeks and rank 29th in wOBA over the last seven days - only the White Sox have been worse over that stretch.

Cleveland doesn't figure to turn things around against Cubs ace Shota Imanaga. He'll be starting on full rest (five days) following a masterful performance against the Twins last week (seven innings, two earned runs allowed, 10 strikeouts). The Cubs are 5-0 in his last five outings and 9-2 in his last 11.

Ben Lively will counter for the Guardians. He's already 20-plus innings north of his career-high. We have seen some regression lately - he allowed four earned runs in five innings in his most recent start. Here, he'll be starting on short rest (four days). On the season, Lively owns a 4.76 FIP to go along with a 1.17 WHIP.

Finally, I'll note that the Guardians bullpen is in rough shape with three key relievers having worked each of the last two days. Meanwhile, the Cubs had a rare Sunday off following a two-game set with the White Sox. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (10*).

American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston -1.5 runs over Houston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

This sets up as a bullpen game for the Red Sox with Josh Winckowski starting as they look to rebound from last night's lopsided defeat. I like their chances of doing just that.

Note that Boston has been red hot offensively, not just in recent days but over the last several weeks and month. In fact, the Red Sox rank top-five or better in weighted on base average over the last 30, 14 and 7 days. In stark contrast, Houston - despite last night's outburst - ranks 17th in the majors in wOBA over the last seven days.

Spencer Arrighetti will take the ball for the Astros. He's coming off a fantastic start against the Rays as he allowed just one earned run and struck out 12 over six innings. Still, the Astros have lost each of his last six starts going back to the beginning of July. Also note that he owns an ERA more than two runs higher on the road compared to at home this season (he's benefited from making three of his last four starts at home).

Winckowski figures to see just an inning or two for the Red Sox. That's just fine as their bullpen is exceptionally deep. While they did use four relievers last night, none of them threw more than 20 pitches and they had an off day on Thursday. Take Boston -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Red Sox have taken the first two games in this series but I look for the Royals to bounce back on Wednesday.

Kutter Crawford will get the start for Boston. He's been struggling lately, allowing 16 earned runs in his last three starts, covering a span of just 15 innings. Note that the Royals have been considerably better offensively against right-handers compared to left-handers this season, ranking 13th in the majors in weighted on base average vs. righties.

Cole Ragans will counter for Kansas City. He bounced back with a better outing in Detroit last week. He's been terrific overall this season, logging a 2.82 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 23 starts. Note that current Red Sox hitters are just 5-for-33 (.152) against him with a .412 OPS.

The Red Sox used four different relievers in the first game of this series on Monday and five in last night's contest. The Royals should have all hands on deck in their bullpen after Kris Bubic worked in long relief last night. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday.

Freddy Peralta has fallen on hard times for the Brewers. Milwaukee has lost four of his last five starts with each of those defeats coming by multiple runs. While his overall numbers aren't bad this season, he's given up 12 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings of work since the beginning of July. He catches the Braves in a bounce-back spot once again here after Atlanta prevailed 6-2 against him last week in Milwaukee.

Chris Sale has earned N.L. Cy Young Award consideration, recording a 2.32 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season. The Braves have won four of his last five starts with each of those victories coming by multiple runs. He'll be happy to be facing the Brewers again as current Milwaukee hitters are just 12-for-58 (.207) against him with a .556 OPS. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (10*).

National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati -1.5 runs over San Francisco at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

Reds starter Hunter Greene has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last month. He's made four starts since the start of July, allowing nine hits and one earned run in 27 innings of work over that stretch. The right-hander is allowing a ridiculous 5.9 hits per nine innings this season. Current Giants hitters haven't seen much of Greene but have struggled when they have gone against him - 4-for-18 (.222) with a .652 OPS. While the Giants have performed reasonably well at the plate lately, they check in 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against right-handed pitching this season (at the time of writing).

Left-hander Kyle Harrison will get the call for San Francisco. He was masterful in his most recent start against the Rockies and the Giants won that game in blowout fashion. Note that the Giants haven't won consecutive Harrison starts since May - they're 3-4 in his last seven outings. Harrison has dealt with command issues on the road this season, where he owns a 1.39 WHIP compared to 1.18 at home. Note that San Francisco has lost each of Harrison's last three road starts. I'm anticipating regression from Harrison in upcoming outings as he eclipses the 100-inning mark for the first time in his big league career (that's likely to happen on Saturday). Take Cincinnati -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Los Angeles -1.5 runs over Colorado at 9:35 pm et on Thursday.

After going in-depth on this matchup with my play on the total, I'll also take a flyer on the Angels laying the extra run at a generous price.

Ryan Feltner has pitched exceptionally well for the Rockies over the last month or so. He's not really the problem. The issue is the Colorado offense, which checks in 30th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days and 28th in that department on the road this season. The Rockies have lost each of Feltner's last six starts with four of those defeats coming by two runs or more.

Carson Fulmer gets the call for the Angels. He's coming off consecutive rocky outings against the then-red hot Athletics but has been serviceable as a starter when given a rather short leash. The Angels bullpen behind Fulmer did use four relievers last night but none of them threw 20 or more pitches, nor did they work each of the last two games.

Despite last night's no-show at the plate, Los Angeles has shown some improvement offensively of late, ranking 14th in baseball in wOBA over the last seven days. Take Los Angeles -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Dylan Cease was so close to winning a Cy Young Award two seasons ago as he finished runner-up in the American League. He's in the conversation again this season - this time in the National League - and is currently enjoying one of the best stretches we've ever seen from a starting pitcher. Over his last three outings, Cease has allowed just two hits while striking out 30 and walking seven in 23 innings of work. Of course, he's coming off a no-hitter last time out against the Nationals. We'll support him with a potential generous return on the run-line on Wednesday.

Note that current Dodgers hitters are just 15-for-72 (.208) against Cease with a .662 OPS.

Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for the Dodgers as he makes his second start since returning from injury. He was good in his season debut last week, but certainly not great. It's going to take some time for Kershaw to work himself back up, at least that's the way I see things unfolding. Current Padres hitters are a respectable 41-for-158 (.259) against Kershaw with a .744 OPS. They'll be facing a somewhat downgraded version of the future Hall of Famer on Wednesday.

The Padres entered Tuesday's action ranked fourth in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The Dodgers were 12th over the same stretch. Both teams are 'all-in' after a busy trade deadline period. Look for the Padres to gain the upper hand on this night. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over New York at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday.

The Yankees have taken the first two games of this series but I look for the Phillies to answer back in Wednesday's matinee series finale.

Nestor Cortes will get the start for New York. Things haven't gone well for the left-hander in recent starts and he'll be facing a Phillies club that ranks best in baseball in weighted on base average against southpaw pitching this season. Note that Cortes has been tagged for 15 earned runs in just 13 1/3 innings of work over his last three starts. He'll be fighting the weather conditions on Wednesday as well with the wind forecast to be blowing out to right-center along with hitter-friendly temperatures in the mid-to-high 80's.

Fellow left-hander Cristopher Sanchez takes the ball for the Phillies. The Yanks check in 15th in the majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Sanchez is quietly having a fantastic campaign having posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.26 WHIP. He's a ground-ball pitcher which should serve him well given the hot, windy conditions on Wednesday.

Both bullpens got worked over in last night's extra innings affair. Both are also fairly deep relief corps so I'm not overly concerned in that regard. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Milwaukee -1.5 runs over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Braves took the final two games of their four-game set against the division rival Mets over the weekend. Now they face the prospect of a bullpen game as they deal with the absence of starter Reynaldo Lopez and give Grant Holmes the ball in his place in the rotation.

Holmes has pitched well in relief since getting the call to the bigs in late June. He faces a Brewers offense that hasn't been awful but has certainly been treading water at best over the last couple of weeks. Milwaukee still ranks sixth in baseball in weighted on base average at home this season and I see this as a potential breakout spot on Monday.

Colin Rea gets the start for the Brewers. He has quietly been one of their most reliable starters over the last couple of months. Note that Milwaukee has won six of his last eight starts overall. Current Braves hitters haven't seen much of Rea but have struggled in the 18 collective at-bats they've had, with only three hits.

The bullpens are in similar shape entering this series. We'll simply give the edge to the Brewers based on the starting pitching matchup, along with the fact that they're at home, noting the Braves rank 22nd in the majors in wOBA on the road this season. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

NOTE: The Mariners have flipped from the short favorite to underdog since this play was posted. As a result, they're no longer -1.5 on the standard run-line. They can still be played on the alternate run-line of -1.5, or a moneyline play in an underdog role works fine as well.

The Mariners desperately needed to turn things around over the weekend in Chicago and they did just that, sweeping the lowly White Sox to hold serve in the American League West. Now they go on to Boston for what projects to be a much tougher series against the Red Sox. With that being said, I believe Monday's series-opener features a pitching mismatch that favors Seattle.

Logan Gilbert will get the start for the Mariners. He can't take the blame for losses in his last two starts, both against the Angels, as the M's offense simply didn't show up. I expect a much different story to unfold here. Note that Seattle's offense has started to heat up again, rising to 12th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days (at the time of writing). Gilbert has bordered on Cy Young Award-caliber numbers for much of the season, logging a 3.28 FIP and 0.86 WHIP in 139 innings of work.

Nick Pivetta counters for Boston. He got lit up by the Rockies last week and the Red Sox have lost each of his last three starts, all by multiple runs. Pivetta's overall numbers aren't all that bad this season but the splits aren't good entering Monday's contest. Note that the right-hander has posted a 5.50 ERA at home (compared to 3.75 on the road). His ERA is also nearly a run higher at night compared to in daytime starts. Current Mariners hitters have loved what they've seen from Pivetta, batting .311 with a 1.122 OPS off of him in 61 career at-bats.

The bullpens may be a wash on paper but I'm higher on Seattle's relief corps and they weren't all that taxed in their lopsided weekend series against the White Sox (in stark contrast to the Red Sox who were involved in a grind of a series against the rival Yankees). Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Cleveland at 6:05 pm et on Saturday.

The Guardians took the opener of this series last night but I look for the Phillies to bounce back on Saturday.

Rookie (I use that term loosely as he was a 2015 draft pick of the Texas Rangers) Tyler Phillips will take the ball for Philadelphia. He's made the most of his opportunity with the big club so far, notching two wins in as many starts (he lasted six innings in both of those games). The Guardians bats have been relatively quite for the last month or so - this isn't all that bad of a matchup for Phillips.

Carlos Carrasco gets another turn in the Guardians starting rotation but you do wonder if patience is starting to wear thin. Carrasco owns a disastrous 3-8 record to go along with a 4.68 FIP and 1.38 WHIP despite pitching for a division-leading ball club. The Guardians were willing to bring him back to Cleveland after he recorded a FIP approaching six and a 1.70 WHIP in 20 starts for the Mets last season.

The Phillies are one of the few teams that can go pitch-for-pitch with the Guardians bullpen, boasting their own terrific relief corps. Both 'pens are in reasonably good shape entering this contest. I simply feel we'll see Philadelphia's bats come to life against Carrasco and ultimately cruise to a convincing win. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

NOTE: The line has shifted in the Mets favor so Braves -1.5 is only available as a reverse run-line play now. I do like that play but if the moneyline is a more straightforward option for you, that works as well.

I really like the way this one sets up for the Braves as they look to snap their skid and finally grab a game against the Mets on Saturday.

The starting pitching matchup sets up well for Atlanta as it sends rookie Spencer Schewellenbach to the hill against Tylor Megill of New York.

The Braves have won two of Schwellenbach's last three starts. He owns a 3.83 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts this season.

Megill hasn't enjoyed the same success. The Mets have lost three of his last four starts. While he has posted a solid 3.32 FIP, his 1.44 WHIP leaves a lot to be desired.

This is obviously a big game for Atlanta as it looks to get back on track in this divisional series. Look for the Braves to ultimately pull away for a convincing victory. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

This is a pitching mismatch as the Cubs trot out potential trade chip Kyle Hendricks against Brady Singer of the Royals.

Hendricks may be an attractive piece for a contending team looking for another experienced arm for the stretch run but that's about it. He's been awful this season, logging a 5.43 FIP and 1.49 WHIP. The Cubs have lost 14 of his 18 starts this season. You would have to go all the way back to mid-April to find the last one-run loss in that bunch so we're not all that concerned with laying the extra run with the Royals here.

Singer has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign, sporting a 3.86 FIP and 1.22 WHIP. Last time out he tossed seven shutout innings against the White Sox. The Cubs aren't the White Sox but they haven't proven to be much better at the plate, especially lately as they check in ranked just one spot higher (in 29th place) in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Giants have dropped the first two games of this series in a pair of tightly-contested affairs. I look for San Francisco to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion on Sunday.

Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been the cure for many teams' ails over the course of the season. He checks in 2-6 with a 4.61 ERA. Incredibly, Gomber remains in the rotation despite allowing four earned runs or more in six of his last seven outings.

Rookie Hayden Birdsong is 1-0 with a 3.72 ERA in four starts for the Giants this season. He deserved a better fate in his most recent outing as he held the Twins to just one earned run on two hits over five innings in a 4-2 Giants loss.

The Giants bullpen is in excellent shape after using only two relievers for 29 total pitches in last night's game. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*).

N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has inexplicably strung together three straight team wins in his last three starts. In fact, you would have to go back five Freeland outings to find the last time the Rockies lost by more than a single run with him on the hill. We'll go against that trend on Saturday, however, as I still feel that Freeland is one of baseball's weakest starters and enters with a miserable track record against current Giants hitters.

San Francisco will be happy to be facing Freeland, noting that its current hitters have gone 30-for-91 (.330) against him with a .906 OPS. Despite his recent success, the Rockies left-hander still owns a 4.29 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season.

It's a much different story for Giants starter Logan Webb. The N.L. All-Star checks in with a 2.80 FIP and 1.24 WHIP but will be looking to bounce back following an ugly outing against Toronto on July 10th. Note that current Rockies hitters are just 37-for-154 (.240) off of Webb with a .611 OPS.

The Giants were serious about securing a win in a tight ball game last night as they used four key relievers (and ultimately fell short). That's of little consequence here with the All-Star break barely in the rear-view mirror. It should be all hands on deck for the San Francisco 'pen on Saturday. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on Seattle -1.5 runs over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Mariners got their weekend series with the Blue Jays off to a positive start before dropping consecutive games on Saturday and Sunday. I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Diego for an Interleague series against the Padres on Tuesday.

Logan Gilbert will take the ball for Seattle. He didn't have his best stuff last time out and paid the price against an elite Orioles offense, allowing four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. On the season, he owns a 3.43 FIP and 0.92 WHIP and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Current Padres hitters are 7-for-48 against Gilbert with a putrid .441 OPS. Note that San Diego ranks 17th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days, cooling from a recent red hot run at the plate.

Rookie Adam Mazur will counter for San Diego. He remains in the starting rotation out of necessity only as things certainly haven't gone well for him at the big league level. Mazur checks in sporting a 5.45 FIP and 1.82 WHIP in six starts this season.

Any time we can back the Mariners terrific bullpen when fully rested (they were off Monday), we'll give them strong consideration. Take Seattle -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Baltimore -1.5 runs over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday.

The A's are coming off a series sweep of the division-rival Angels but I expect them to get snapped back to reality by the Orioles on Friday night.

Baltimore is coming off a loss in Seattle yesterday as the Mariners avoided the sweep thanks to a late game offensive surge. I don't think the O's will have such difficulty against an A's club that ranks in the bottom-third of the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days.

The O's will be in their preferred position on Friday and that's facing a left-handed starter in Hogan Harris. Note that Baltimore ranks fourth in baseball in wOBA vs. southpaw pitching this season. Only the Mets have recorded a better wOBA overall over the last two weeks.

Albert Suarez will look to continue his magical season for the O's. Last time out he tossed six innings of three-hit shutout ball against the Rangers, lowering his FIP to 3.29 and his WHIP to 1.25.

You could argue that the A's bullpen is in far better shape following consecutive masterful outings from their starters but I'm not sure that it will matter on this occasion as the O's bats should come to life at the Coliseum. Take Baltimore -1.5 runs (8*).

My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Marlins eked out a 2-1 victory over the Royals last night, evening this series at a game apiece entering Wednesday's rubber match. I like Kansas City's chances of securing a comfortable victory in this one.

Valente Bellozo is slated to get his first big league start for the Marlins. He has posted respectable numbers at the Double-A level this season but didn't fare so well when levelling up to Triple-A, recording a 5.66 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings of work. Bellozo has been toiling around the Minors since 2018, never getting the call to the big club so while this is a huge game for him, I don't expect the Royals - desperate to break out of their funk at the plate - will take it easy on him.

Brady Singer will take the ball for Kansas City. He checks in sporting a 4.12 FIP and 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts this season. In eight home outings he has logged a 3.04 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

While the Marlins did get the win last night, it had little to do with their offensive production. In a game they'll likely have to patch together on the mound, I suspect they'll need to score a lot more to stay competitive. The problem is they rank 29th in baseball in weighted on-base average this season (only the White Sox are worse). Royals roll. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*).

Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

This game should serve as a 'slump-buster' for the Royals offense as they look to tee off on the Marlins pitching staff on a night where the temperature is expected to approach or eclipse 100 degrees while the wind blows out to left-center.

Roddery Munoz will get the start for the Marlins. He hasn't just been bad this season, he's been downright awful, sporting a 7.46 FIP and 1.35 WHIP in six starts. The Royals rank second in baseball in team OPS at home this season, trailing only the Astros in that category.

Cole Ragans owns a stellar 2.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including one complete game. While he hasn't had his best stuff in recent outings, he's still hung in there to go at least six innings in four straight starts. Note that the Marlins rank last (30th) in the majors in team OPS vs. left-handed pitching this season.

While the Marlins were forced to use four relievers in yesterday's game, the Royals deployed only two relief arms for a combined 27 pitches. This will be an 'all hands on deck' situation for the Kansas City 'pen but I project things to be out of hand by that point anyway. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (10*).