At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/New England game.  We played on the 'over' in the Patriots/Texans game, and were rewarded with a 34-16 New England win.  That high-scoring game extended New England's 'over' run to 78-49 its last 127, and 8-2-1 at home in the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Steelers have generally been an 'over' team in the Playoffs.  Since 1983, Pittsburgh's gone 'over' 27-12-1, including 10-1 'over' if its opponent's defensive ppg was less than 16.36.  New England, of course, is giving up just 15.64 ppg this season, but teams that give up less than 16 ppg have gone 'over' 57% in the Playoffs the past 37 years (and 67% if the O/U line was 46+ points).  The 'over' falls into 60-29, 37-14 and 50-24 Totals Systems of mine.  Take the 'over.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Patriots are a better team across the board.  They own the better offense (27.94 ppg vs 24.83 ppg), better defense (15.64 vs. 19.72), better win percentage (.882 vs. .722), better pointspread differential (5.17 vs. 1.05), better pointspread win percentage (.823 vs. .611).  They're also playing at home, and have been installed as a mid-sized favorite.  In the Playoffs, when you get a team (like Pittsburgh) playing away from home against an opponent which is superior in every single one of these categories, it's not very surprising to learn that our inferior teams don't do very well.  Of course, certain of our statistics bear more importance than others at this stage of the Playoffs.  And one of the things I love to do in the Conference Championship round is play on the teams that own the better defense.  Here, of course, that's New England.  The Patriots have given up just 15.64 ppg this season, and that rates 4.08 ppg better than the Steelers' defense.  And in the Conference Championship round, teams with a defensive ppg at least 1 point better than their opponent's defensive ppg, have cashed 100% (10-0 ATS) at home when priced from -2.5 to -6.5 points.   New England's 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS at home in the Playoffs since 2012.  And it's 10-3-1 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last 14 meetings (as well as 4-0 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in the last four post-season meetings).  Finally, road underdogs priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points are a dismal 6-17 ATS in the Conference Championship round if they pulled an upset win in the quarterfinals.   Take New England.  NFL Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Pittsburgh.  This is a very difficult situation for the Steelers, who will be playing their first road game after three straight home games.  And NFL road underdogs have gone 0-11 ATS since 1981 off a home playoff win, if they also were at home in their two games previous to that.  Even worse for the Steelers:  they blew out Kansas City 43-14 in early October.  But the Chiefs are a super 20-10 ATS at home their last 30 when playing with same-season revenge, including 10-0 ATS vs. .715 (or worse) foes off a win.  Take Kansas City.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Dallas/Green Bay game.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Green Bay Packers.  (Analysis to follow.)

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Houston Texans to go 'over' the total.  The Houston Texans score just 18.00 ppg, and give up just 20.11 (for 38.11 combined points per game).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game.  But NFL underdogs have gone 'over' in 24 of 32 Playoff games, if their games, on average, generated less than 39.3 ppg.  And teams that average less than 20 points on offense have gone 'over' in seven straight playoff games.  Additionally, six of the last eight meetings between these two franchises have gone 'over' the total.  And New England has gone 'over' in 77 of its last 126 games, including 7-2-1 'under' at home in the playoffs.  Take the 'over.'  NFL Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Atlanta lost a 26-24 heartbreaker to the Seahawks earlier this year, when Steven Hauschka kicked the game-winner with 1:57 left to cap a 4th quarter rally which saw Seattle outscore the Falcons, 9-0, in the final frame.  But NFL teams, with a win percentage between .600 and .750, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, have cashed 45 of 65 Playoff games, including a perfect 14-0 ATS if they lost by 3 points or less in that earlier game.  Also, Seattle falls into negative 27-75 and 38-88 ATS systems of mine, based on its relatively poor offensive stats.  To wit:  Atlanta's offense has been 11.39 ppg better than Seattle's this season!  And home teams with a much better offense (at least +3.0 ppg) have covered 62% in the Playoffs when not laying more than 7 points.  Take Atlanta.  NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over New York.  Interestingly, these two teams have met seven times since 2008.  In the five regular season meetings, the home team covered all five, but in the two Playoff games, it was the road team (and both times, the New York Giants) that got the cash.  Still, I’m going to back the homestanding Packers in this game.  The Giants are in a horrid situation, as they will be playing their third straight road game, after having to play Philly and Washington away from home in the final two weeks of the regular season.  Unfortunately for New York, teams that ended their regular season with back-to-back road games have been awful on the road in their initial playoff game.  Since 1984, they’ve gone 3-14 straight-up, and have covered just four of those 17 games.  That’s one reason I’m going to fade New York.  Another is that it upset Washington, as a 9.5-point underdog.  And teams off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) underdog in their final regular season game have covered just one of eight Playoff games over the past 30 years.   Finally, Green Bay is 87-57-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, including 26-8-1 ATS when priced between -3.5 and -6.5 points.  And while it’s easy to focus on the fact that the Eli Manning and the Giants upset the Packers in the Playoffs in 2012, Green Bay has still gone 8-4- ATS in the Playoffs with Rodgers, including 7-1-1, 88% ATS vs. a foe off a pointspread win.  Take Green Bay.  NFL Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 1:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Earlier this year, Miami upset Pittsburgh, 30-15, as a 7-point underdog.  We had a huge play on Miami in that game, so the result didn't surprise us.  But we'll lay the points with Pittsburgh here, in this revenge spot.  The Dolphins, of course, are down to their 2nd string QB after Ryan Tannehill sustained ACL and MCL sprains last month vs. Arizona.  Miami's offense wasn't very good to begin with (it only scores 22.7 ppg).  Certainly, that's problematic.  But even more so because Miami's defense is below average, and gives up 23.7 ppg.  So, it won't be able to keep this game within reach should Miami's offense falter.  For technical support, consider that, since 1980, NFL favorites of -8 or more points, playing with revenge, have gone 15-0 ATS if their opponent's offensive scoring average was less than 23.7 ppg.  Also, Pittsburgh has cashed its last 5 Playoff games when playing with revenge, while Miami has gone 0-9 SU/ATS in the Playoffs as a dog of more than 2 points vs. .600 (or better) foes.  Take the Steelers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Seattle.  Detroit has failed to cover its last three games.  But NFL teams off 3 ATS losses to end the regular season have cashed 65.5% in the Playoffs the past 37 years!  With the pointspread up significantly from the opener, we'll grab the points with Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans minus the points over the Oakland Raiders.  The Texans were 9-7 on the season, and outscored by 49 points over the course of the season (-3.06 ppg), yet are the decided favorite against the 12-4 Raiders, who outscored their foes by 31 points this season (+1.94 ppg).  Obviously, it's because of Oakland's quarterback situation.  But the Texans shouldn't have to apologize for not having to face Derek Carr.  After all, last season, the Texans had to go into the Playoffs with Bobby Hoyer as their starting QB.  And he doomed Houston by throwing four interceptions.  And this season, they've been without J.J. Watt, their best player, since Week 3, when he suffered a herniated disk in his back.  So, even though the Texans have a relative scoring margin of -5.0 ppg compared to Oakland, we'll lay the points on Saturday.  And that's because teams favored by 3 or more points, off a loss in their last regular season game, have gone 8-0, 100% ATS in the Playoffs since 1980 if they owned a relative scoring margin of -1.38 ppg (or worse) to their foe.  Additionally, the Texans lost, 27-20, at home to Oakland in November.  But Houston falls into a 34-15 ATS revenge system of mine.  Finally, Houston's performed very well in the role of a favorite, as it's cashed 14 of its last 19.  Lay the points.  NFL Wild Card Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  For the Detroit Lions franchise, which hasn't won a division title since 1993, this is the biggest regular season game in more than a generation.  Unless the Redskins lose to the Giants earlier in the day, the loser of this game will miss the Playoffs, while the winner will claim the division crown.  Certainly, the Packers are playing better football.  They've won five straight, including road wins at Chicago and Philadelphia.  But the Eagles are 6-9, while Chicago is 3-12.  And the Packers' only other road win this season came against the 3-12 Jaguars.  Detroit, though, has a winning record, at 9-6.  And the Packers have lost all four road games this season vs. opponents with a .466 (or better) record (Vikings, Falcons, Titans, Redskins).  And Green Bay's lost those four games by an average of 11 ppg.  It's true that Detroit lost its last two games -- 17-6 at New York, and 42-21 at Dallas.  But those two games were on the road.  At home, in Ford Field, the Lions have been dominant, and come into this contest on a 6-game home win streak (4-1-1 ATS).  And winning home teams, off back to back road losses, have covered 64 of 98 dating back to 1981.  Also, Detroit falls into a 31-4 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off losses, in which they gave up 40+ points.  Before surrendering 42 to Dallas, the Lions' defense had not given up 21+ points in eight consecutive games.  It should rise to the occasion again, here, at home, in this critical game.  Take Detroit + the points.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over Arizona.  We played on the Cardinals as an 8-point underdog last week, and they rewarded us with an outright win at Seattle.  But off that division upset, I look for a letdown on Sunday at Los Angeles.  And that's because .401 (or better) teams off an upset win the previous week as a 6-point (or greater) underdog generally do poorly against the spread.  And especially if they're favored against an opponent off a loss, as they're 86-43 ATS since 1980.  Even worse for the Cardinals:  teams favored on the road in their final game of the regular season, off an upset win, are 0-10 ATS since 1990 vs. an opponent off an ATS loss.  Finally, the Rams fall into a 71-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take Los Angeles.  NFC West Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over Dallas.  We played on Dallas last Monday in its 42-21 win vs. Detroit.  But we'll switch gears, and go against the Cowboys in this, their final road game of the season.  Dallas has a 13-2 record, so this game is meaningless with respect to Playoff positioning.  The Cowboys have earned the #1 seed, and will enjoy home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs.  But since 1990, NFL teams with a win percentage of .750 or better, have been horrid on the road in their final regular season game.  They've gone 9-21 straight-up and 7-22-1 ATS, including 1-7 ATS if our road team's W/L percentage was more than 40 percentage points greater than its opponent's W/L percentage.  Moreover, the Cowboys fall into a negative 15-52 ATS system of mine based on their high-scoring win last week.  Finally, road underdogs have covered just 21% over the past 36 seasons in their final game of the season, if they were working off a short week, due to playing on the previous Monday night.  Take Philly.  NFC East Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at quarterback for New York, and he had his best game of the season back in Week 2 vs. the Bills, when he threw for 374 yards in a 37-31 victory.  Meanwhile, E.J. Manuel will start under center for Buffalo, rather than Tyrod Taylor, as the Bills couldn’t risk a serious injury to Taylor, which would trigger a guaranteed 27.5 million dollar payment for next season.  Last week, we had a big play on New England over the Jets, and were rewarded with a 41-3 blowout win.  But we’ll jump on the Jets this week, as home underdogs (or PK) off a loss by 23 or more points have gone 183-114 ATS since 1980 if they’re playing an opponent with a win percentage better than .400, including 57-23 ATS if that opponent lost its game the previous week.   Finally, the underdog in this rivalry has gone 42-25 ATS, including 31-12 ATS if it had a worse won/loss record.  Take New York.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit, as the Lions fall into negative 13-58 and 56-109 ATS systems of mine.  Even worse for Detroit:  last week, the Lions lost 17-6 to the New York Giants, while Dallas defeated Tampa Bay, 26-20.  And winning teams (like Dallas), priced from -3 to -12 points, have cashed 17 straight games at home on Monday Night Football vs. non-division foes, if such foe lost its previous game by 7+ points.  Take the Cowboys. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the KC/Denver game.  Neither one of these two teams has been playing high-scoring games, of late.  The Broncos have gone 'under' in three straight, including 13-10 and 16-3 losses the past two weeks to Tennessee and New England, respectively.  And KC checks in off 'unders' in eight of 10 games, including their last two, a 21-13 win over Oakland, and a 19-17 upset loss to Tennessee.  But I look for a much higher scoring game tonight, as NFL games with O/U lines less than 40 points have gone 'over' the total 60.4% of the time if both teams come in off back to back games that didn't generate 37+ points.  Take the 'over.'  AFC Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game, as it falls into a 160-101 Totals system of mine.  These two teams met just 13 days ago, and the Bucs won, 16-11, at home.  That game sailed 'under' the total by 25 points, and I look for another low-scoring game on Saturday, notwithstanding the fact that each was just involved in high-scoring games last week.  The Bucs come into this game off a 26-20 loss at Dallas, while New Orleans defeated Arizona, 48-41.  But teams (like New Orleans) that were involved in a game which produced more than 85 points have gone 'under' the total 64% since 1980 if their opponent's previous game generated more than 45 points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last week, the Seahawks demolished Los Angeles, 24-3, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Arizona lost, 48-41, at home to New Orleans.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Arizona on the road, given that it's off back to back SU/ATS losses, and Seattle's off a 21-point win.  But consider that the Seahawks are a miserable 15-42 ATS off a win by 21+ points if they weren't favored by more than 10 points in their current game.  Moreover, teams (like Arizona) that lost a game in which they scored 37+ points, have rebounded to go 31-10 ATS in their next game, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +6 to +10 points.  Take the Cardinals.  NFL Road Warrior Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Atlanta/Carolina game.  These two teams met earlier this season.  Atlanta led 17-10 at the half, but the two teams combined for 54 second-half points to send it 'over' the total.  But prior to that game, these two teams had played six straight 'unders' against each other, and I look for a return to form on this Sunday.  it's true that the Falcons have played all but 2 of their games 'over' the total this season (including their last four in a row).  But this history sets up our play, as teams off 4+ 'overs' have gone 'under' in 18 straight games vs. division rivals, if they weren't favored by more than 7 points, and the O/U line was > 50.5 points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 65-31, 186-131, 93-53 and 29-6 Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Carolina has gone 'under' 44-25-2 at home vs. division rivals.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the San Diego Chargers.  Admittedly, the Browns are a very bad football team.  But this is still a great situation to take the points with Cleveland as a home underdog.  It's Cleveland's final home game, after all.  And bad NFL teams -- with win percentages less than .400 — are actually very good bets in their final home game.  Since 1998, they've gone 98-74 ATS, including 40-17 ATS vs. other bad teams with win percentages less than .430 (and then 10-0-1 ATS in that subset since 2012).   Additionally, this is the first time in more than two years that the Chargers have been favored by more than 5 points, whether at home, or on the road!  And on the road, when favored by 4 or more points, the Chargers have covered just once in nine games dating back to 2009.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee comes into this game off an upset win over Kansas City, and has been installed as a road favorite vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately for the Titans, they're a poor 5-17 ATS off an upset win, including 1-8 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Jacksonville also falls into an 86-29 ATS late season system of mine.  Take the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York is 4-10 on the season following its 21-point home loss to the Dolphins a week ago, while New England is 12-2.  This will be the Jets final road game of the year, and teams off a loss by more than 17 points, have gone 0-12 ATS in their final road games, when matched up against an opponent whose win percentage is at least .400 percentage points better.  That doesn't bode well for the Flyboys on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that New England is 26-10 ATS since 1980 in its final home game of the season, including 8-1 ATS if the Patriots' win percentage was at least .333 better than their opponent's.  Finally, the Patriots fall into 34-5, 97-50 and 45-13 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off losses.  Take New England.  NFL Conference Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Washington Redskins.  The Bears are 3-11, and won't be going to the Playoffs, but they're still competing at a high level.  Over their last five games, Chicago's 1-4 straight-up, but a perfect 5-0 ATS.  This is its final home game of the season, and I fully expect a great effort in front of its home faithful.  Also, the Bears are 42-14 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than three points.  Take Chicago.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins as Buffalo falls into 56-20 and 33-11 ATS systems of mine.  Also, this is Miami's final road game of the season, and NFL underdogs of more than 3 points, with a better season record than their opponent, are a dismal 37% ATS in their final road games, if their opponent is playing with revenge.  With the Bills, indeed, playing with revenge from a 3-point loss at Miami earlier this season, we'll lay the points with Rex Ryan's club.  Take Buffalo. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the NY Giants.  Philly's dropped 5 in a row (though it covered the spread in last week's loss), while New York's won back to back games (both SU and ATS) vs. Dallas (10-7) and Detroit (17-6).  But we'll fade the G-Men on this Thursday, as the Giants fall into several negative systems of mine.  One is 118-65 ATS and fades certain teams that didn't give up 10 or more points in either of their two previous games.  And another is 86-48 ATS, and that system plays on certain teams off 3+ losses vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Eagles are 13-4 ATS the last 17 meetings with New York, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if the Eagles are off an ATS win.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.