At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Atlanta/Carolina game.  These two teams met earlier this season.  Atlanta led 17-10 at the half, but the two teams combined for 54 second-half points to send it 'over' the total.  But prior to that game, these two teams had played six straight 'unders' against each other, and I look for a return to form on this Sunday.  it's true that the Falcons have played all but 2 of their games 'over' the total this season (including their last four in a row).  But this history sets up our play, as teams off 4+ 'overs' have gone 'under' in 18 straight games vs. division rivals, if they weren't favored by more than 7 points, and the O/U line was > 50.5 points.  Additionally, the 'under' falls into 65-31, 186-131, 93-53 and 29-6 Totals systems of mine.  Finally, Carolina has gone 'under' 44-25-2 at home vs. division rivals.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the San Diego Chargers.  Admittedly, the Browns are a very bad football team.  But this is still a great situation to take the points with Cleveland as a home underdog.  It's Cleveland's final home game, after all.  And bad NFL teams -- with win percentages less than .400 — are actually very good bets in their final home game.  Since 1998, they've gone 98-74 ATS, including 40-17 ATS vs. other bad teams with win percentages less than .430 (and then 10-0-1 ATS in that subset since 2012).   Additionally, this is the first time in more than two years that the Chargers have been favored by more than 5 points, whether at home, or on the road!  And on the road, when favored by 4 or more points, the Chargers have covered just once in nine games dating back to 2009.  Take Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee comes into this game off an upset win over Kansas City, and has been installed as a road favorite vs. the Jaguars.  Unfortunately for the Titans, they're a poor 5-17 ATS off an upset win, including 1-8 ATS when laying more than 3 points.  Jacksonville also falls into an 86-29 ATS late season system of mine.  Take the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York is 4-10 on the season following its 21-point home loss to the Dolphins a week ago, while New England is 12-2.  This will be the Jets final road game of the year, and teams off a loss by more than 17 points, have gone 0-12 ATS in their final road games, when matched up against an opponent whose win percentage is at least .400 percentage points better.  That doesn't bode well for the Flyboys on Saturday.  And neither does the fact that New England is 26-10 ATS since 1980 in its final home game of the season, including 8-1 ATS if the Patriots' win percentage was at least .333 better than their opponent's.  Finally, the Patriots fall into 34-5, 97-50 and 45-13 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off losses.  Take New England.  NFL Conference Favorite of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Washington Redskins.  The Bears are 3-11, and won't be going to the Playoffs, but they're still competing at a high level.  Over their last five games, Chicago's 1-4 straight-up, but a perfect 5-0 ATS.  This is its final home game of the season, and I fully expect a great effort in front of its home faithful.  Also, the Bears are 42-14 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than three points.  Take Chicago.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins as Buffalo falls into 56-20 and 33-11 ATS systems of mine.  Also, this is Miami's final road game of the season, and NFL underdogs of more than 3 points, with a better season record than their opponent, are a dismal 37% ATS in their final road games, if their opponent is playing with revenge.  With the Bills, indeed, playing with revenge from a 3-point loss at Miami earlier this season, we'll lay the points with Rex Ryan's club.  Take Buffalo. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Ohio.  Both of these teams lost their most recent game.  The Bobcats fell, 29-23, to Western Michigan, while Troy State lost, 28-24, as a 7-point favorite at Georgia Southern.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with the Trojans, as they're 8-0 ATS their last 8 off an upset loss.  And they also fall into a 94-54 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses immediately before a bowl game.  Take Troy State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on Navy + the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Midshipmen got bit by the injury bug, which was the primary reason they lost their last two games -- vs. Temple in the American Athletic Conf. Title Game and, then, vs. Army a week later.  Of course, the pointspread has been adjusted upward to account for the injuries, and I'm more than happy to grab the points with the underdog in this Armed Forces Bowl.  Navy falls into a 48-22 ATS Bowl system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Moreover, the Middies have been the best team in college football ATS when playing away from home over the past 25 years.  Since 1991, Navy is 106-55 ATS away from home, including 26-12 ATS off back to back losses, and 74-33 ATS as an underdog.  Take Navy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Old Dominion.  Eastern Michigan falls into several of my favorite Bowl Systems, with records of 107-50, 121-67 and 136-89 ATS.  Additionally, Eastern Michigan plays with revenge from a 38-34 home loss suffered to Old Dominion last season, and a 17-3 loss to the Monarchs the year before.  But underdogs of more than 3 points are an awesome 64.2% ATS in the post-season since 1994 when playing with revenge!  Take Eastern Michigan + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the NY Giants.  Philly's dropped 5 in a row (though it covered the spread in last week's loss), while New York's won back to back games (both SU and ATS) vs. Dallas (10-7) and Detroit (17-6).  But we'll fade the G-Men on this Thursday, as the Giants fall into several negative systems of mine.  One is 118-65 ATS and fades certain teams that didn't give up 10 or more points in either of their two previous games.  And another is 86-48 ATS, and that system plays on certain teams off 3+ losses vs. foes off back to back wins.  The Eagles are 13-4 ATS the last 17 meetings with New York, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if the Eagles are off an ATS win.  Take Philly.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over the Colorado State Rams, as Idaho falls into 28-7, 38-16 and 16-0 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins (Colorado State stunned San Diego State, 63-31, as an 11.5-point underdog in its last game).  Let's take a look at our 28-7 ATS angle.  That goes against teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 10 points, if they scored 48+ in that victory.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Colorado State) has a W/L percentage of .583 (or better) than our 28-7 angle zooms to 12-1 ATS.  The Vandals certainly will be the team most in the stands will be cheering for this evening, as the game will be played less than 300 miles from Idaho's main campus in Moscow.  And we'll grab the points with Idaho.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, in the Poinsettia Bowl, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over BYU.  The Cougars have won four straight games, while Wyoming's dropped its last two.  But none of the Cougars' last four opponents (Cincinnati, Southern Utah, Massachusetts, Utah State) qualified for a Bowl game.  In contrast, Wyoming's two losses to end the season were against New Mexico and San Diego State.  And both of those teams played in a Bowl game.  One of the things I like to do in the post-season is wager on teams off back to back losses, if they're playing a favored opponent off 3+ wins.  Since 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 72% of the time!  Take Wyoming + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finished the season with a better record (both SU and ATS) than Memphis, but that largely was due to a much easier schedule.  Western Kentucky benefited from playing in a weaker conference (Conference USA) than did Memphis (American Athletic).  Indeed, the 2nd best team (Louisiana Tech) this season in Conference USA would have rated 6th or 7th this year in the American Athletic Conference.  When the Hilltoppers stepped outside of their conference this season, they fared very poorly, with just one ATS win in five games.  Even worse:  in the regular season, they also failed to cover the spread against the teams rated #2 and #3 in power rating in Conference USA (LA Tech and Middle Tennessee St), though they did avenge their regular season defeat with a home win in the Conference USA Title game vs. LA Tech.  Regardless, much of Western Kentucky's success this season was against very soft competition; they didn't cover the spread in any of their four games when they weren't favored by more than 11 points.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Washington Redskins minus the points over Carolina.  After a 3-game road trek at Dallas, Arizona and Philly, the Redskins return home for this game vs. Carolina.  Washington's won its last four games at home (going 4-0 ATS), and falls into a super 38-11 ATS system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any home team on Monday Night Football, if it's off back to back road games, and is playing a team with a worse record.  Even better:  if our team is playing with revenge, then our 38-11 angle zooms to 13-1 ATS.  Last year, the Redskins were blown out, 44-16, at Carolina by the Panthers, so they'll definitely be looking to avenge that defeat on Monday.  And Washington also falls into a 36-20 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that lost by 25+ points the previous year.  Take Washington.  Monday Night Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane laid an egg (at least in Las Vegas) in its last game, as it was favored by 22.5, yet only won by three points vs. Cincinnati, 40-37.  Now, Tulsa is laying double digits to Central Michigan, notwithstanding the fact that the Golden Hurricane's defense leaves much to be desired.  Indeed, Tulsa's giving up 31.5 ppg (against opponents that score two points less, on average), and that number soars to 36.5 ppg away from home.  Generally speaking, it's a real bad idea to lay points with bad defensive clubs in bowl games.  For example, teams that give up 23+ ppg have covered just 25% of Bowl games if laying more than a TD to a team that scores at least 25 ppg.  Grab the points with Central Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Tampa Bay.  The Buccaneers won (and covered) their fifth straight game, last week, when they bested Drew Brees & the Saints, 16-11, as a 2.5-point favorite.  Tampa's now 8-5, and has an excellent shot to make the Playoffs.  But they'll face their stiffest test of the season this week when they have to take on the 11-2 Cowboys, in Texas.  And Dallas should be in an ornery mood following its upset loss last week at New York.  We'll take Dallas, as home teams off an upset loss on the road have covered 73.4% over the past 37 years vs. winning teams off 3+ ATS wins, including 13-1 ATS if our home team is playing with revenge.  With Dallas, indeed, playing with revenge from a 10-6 loss at Tampa Bay last season, we'll lay the points with the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New England Patriots.  These two teams met twice last season -- both times, here, in Denver.  And the Broncos got the better of Tom Brady in each instance.  In the regular season, the Broncos won 30-24, as a 3-point underdog.  Then, in last year's playoffs, Denver upset the Patriots once again, 20-18, also as a 3-point home underdog.  Fast forward to this Sunday, and New England is once again favored on the road.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the revenge-minded Patriots.  But consider that, since 1981, road teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in the previous year's Playoffs have gone an awful 18-37 ATS.  Even worse for New England: it falls into negative 29-63 and 57-113 ATS systems of mine based on its statistics through the first 13 games.  Finally, Denver's a super 45-24 ATS at home vs. foes that have a scoring margin of +5.5 ppg (or better).  Take Denver.  NFL High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers + the points over Oakland.  These two division rivals met in Oakland earlier this season, and the Raiders won that game, 34-31, as a 3.5-point favorite.  We'll take the points with the Chargers this afternoon, as they fall into a super 57-25 ATS revenge system of mine, which plays on certain teams that lost earlier in the season to their opponent, provided they're not getting more than 3 points.  Moreover, the Raiders are a woeful 31-61-1 ATS when not getting more than 3 points, including 15-52-1 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win!  Finally, AFC West division home underdogs have been a very profitable 38-24-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take San Diego.  NFL Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  Green Bay played its best game of the season last week when it blew out Seattle, 38-10, as a 3-point home underdog, while the Bears lost a 3-point heartbreaker at Detroit.  Now, to earn a playoff spot, the Packers will likely have to win their final three games — all against division opponents — and hope that Detroit also loses to either the Cowboys or Giants.  Of course, if the Packers lose to their Windy City rivals this weekend, they’ll be all but eliminated from the Playoff chase.  I’m going to take the points with the Bears, who will be playing this game with revenge from a loss at Green Bay earlier in the season.  And underdogs of more than 6 points, from Chicago’s division, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season have gone 29-6 ATS since 1993.  Even better:  NFC North division teams off a straight-up loss have gone 56-28 ATS vs. division rivals off a win.  Finally, Green Bay falls into a negative 32% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset wins.  Take Chicago.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Buffalo.  I'm well aware of Cleveland's miserable record this season.  But it's hard to pass up double-digits this late in the season against a losing team like Buffalo.  Indeed, non-winning teams (at Game 5 forward) have been dreadful when favored by 9+ points, if they lost their previous game straight-up.  Since 1980, they've covered just 45 of 126 games.  Take the points with the Browns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  Last week, the Eagles dropped their fourth straight game (both SU and ATS) when they lost at home, 27-22, to division rival Washington.  The Eagles will finish up with 2 home games vs. their other two division rivals, so this non-division game is their lone road game of the final four weeks.  And when a team closes its schedule with 3 of its final four games at home, it generally gets beat pretty bad in its final road game of the season, as NFL teams in this situation have covered just 56 of 149 since 1980, including just 9 of 49 as underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss.  Take Baltimore.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Colts were upset by their division rival, Houston, last Sunday.  Indy was favored by 6.5, but lost at home, 22-17.  I love Andrew Luck & Co. to bounce back on the road this Sunday, as they're 25-7 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 12-1, 92% ATS when getting more than 2 points!  And Minny's covered just 12 of 33 vs. foes off an upset loss.  Finally, .620 (or worse) NFL teams are 158-105 ATS since 1980 off an upset loss as a 6-point (or greater) favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win.  Take the Indianapolis Colts + the points.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Houston Texans.  Houston went into Jacksonville, and upset the Jaguars, 24-21, last month.  And Houston also upset another division rival -- Indianapolis -- last weekend.  But I look for Jacksonville to turn the tables on the Texans on Sunday, as the Texans fall into a negative 16-55 ATS system of mine which goes against home favorites in divisional games off an upset over another division rival the previous week on the road.  Even better:  the Jaguars have lost their last seven games.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against them on the road.  But road underdogs on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak have actually been terrific wagers over the past 27 years, as they've cashed 54 of 79 (68.3%).  Take the points with the Jaguars.  AFC South Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  Miami will start Matt Moore under center, as QB Ryan Tannehill is out with a knee injury.  Ironically, the last time Moore started a game was almost five years ago, in 2012, in a New Year's Day win over these same Jets.  Last week, Moore completed three of five passes for 47 yards, in relief of Tannehill.  And Miami upset the Arizona Cardinals, 26-23, as a home underdog.  Unfortunately, that upset win has triggered a negative 68-140 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain teams off home upset wins.  Meanwhile, the Jets went into San Francisco, and upset the 49ers last week, as a 3-point road dog.  And one of the things I love to do is play on home underdogs (or PK) off upset wins on the road, when matched up against an opponent also off a win.  Our home pups in this situation have gone 147-105 ATS since 1980.  Take New York.  AFC East Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over New Mexico.  These two teams know each other well.  They've played twice in the past four seasons, with each winning outright as an underdog on the other's home field.  So that bodes well for Texas San Antonio this afternoon, as this game will be played at New Mexico's stadium, in Albuquerque.  And I won't pass up the points with the Roadrunners, as they're a much better defensive club than New Mexico.  The Lobos are giving up a whopping 32.4 ppg (more than 5 points more than their opponents would otherwise average).  In contrast, Texas San Antonio has held its opponents to 2.5 ppg BELOW their offensive averages.  It's true that Texas San Antonio comes into this game with just a 6-6 record (compared to 8-4 for New Mexico).  But underdogs that didn't have a winning regular season have gone 37-20 ATS in the post-season vs. foes that did have a winning year.  Take Texas San Antonio.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  At its core essence, sports gambling is a numbers game.  So, one of the primary goals is to get the best number.  This game opened at -8, and the line has come down to -6, so it's crossed the key NFL number of -7, and rests on a lesser key number (-6).  We'll pull the trigger on the Patriots right here, as New England is 82-37-4 ATS in the regular season since Sept. 14, 2003 when not laying 7+ points, including 18-5 ATS in the last four weeks of the season.  Take the Patriots.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints against Tampa Bay.  The Bucs won and covered their fourth straight game last week -- with their fourth straight upset win, no less -- in a 28-21 win at San Diego (as a 3-point dog).  Meanwhile, New Orleans was upset as a 6.5-point favorite, at home, vs. Detroit.  We'll take New Orleans this afternoon, as division underdogs of less than 6 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 6 points, have cashed 76.4% over the past 37 years vs. foes off an upset win.  Additionally, the Saints fall into 102-40, 146-94 and 149-65 ATS Systems of mine.  Take New Orleans.  NFC South Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Last week, the Bills lost by two touchdowns to the 10-2 Oakland Raiders, as a 3-point underdog, but played better than the final score would indicate.  The Bills amassed 382 yards on offense, while Oakland got just 17 more yards.  But 2 turnovers by Buffalo were the difference in the ball game.  The Bills are still in the Playoff hunt, with a 6-6 record, and three of their remaining four games at home.  I love Buffalo as a home underdog, as home dogs off a double-digit loss and double-digit pointspread defeat, that gave up 37 or more points in their previous game, have gone 59-24 ATS vs. an opponent off a double-digit win.  Even better:  the Bills are a super 39-13 ATS at home off a straight-up and against-the-spread loss, if their opponent is off a win, including 28-5 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Steelers have lost their last eight road games, straight-up, off back to back wins, including 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Take Buffalo + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Cincinnati.  There's no denying that the Browns are an awful football club, with 12 losses to open this season, and six straight pointspread defeats since October 23, when these two teams last met.  That being said, I'm going to step in and grab the points with the home underdog Browns.  The key factor for me is that Cleveland had its Bye week last week, so it's very well rested.  And Home Dogs off a Bye have been money in the bank when getting 5.5 points, as they're 36-13 ATS.  Take the Browns.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Chicago.  The Bears have covered three straight games, including a 26-6 upset win, at home, vs. the San Francisco 49ers last week.  But I expect the Bears to come back down to earth this afternoon.  After all, they're starting a rookie QB in Matt Barkley, who won't have very many weapons on hand.  Chicago will be without WR Alshon Jeffery once again as he finishes up his 4-game suspension, as well as WR Eddie Royal, who has a toe injury.  And WR Marquess Wilson (groin) is also questionable to play.  The Lions lost to the Bears earlier this season on the road, but Detroit's a terrific 25-11 ATS at home when playing with same-season revenge.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over San Diego.  The Panthers had their worst game of the season last week, when they were blown out, 40-7, at Seattle.  Of course, that came as no surprise to us, as we had a huge play on the Seahawks as a touchdown favorite in that game.  But we'll switch gears, and take Carolina back at home this afternoon.  Indeed, NFL home teams not favored by 2+ points, off a road loss in which they gave up 40+ points, are 83-49-4 ATS their last 136.  Moreover, the Panthers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home off an ATS defeat on the road.  Take Carolina.  NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Chiefs and Raiders to go 'under' the total.  NFL Division games go 'under' the total more often than not.  And especially toward the end of the season, in games with relatively high over/under lines.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 10 forward, NFL division games, with lines greater than 46 points, have gone 'under' 62.1% of the time!  These two teams met in Week 6, and KC held the Raiders to their lowest offensive output of the season, in a 26-10 victory.  The Raiders managed to get less than 300 yards on offense, and were completely shut down by KC's defense.  Of course, since then, the Raiders have won six straight, and have averaged over 32 ppg, with all six games going 'over' the total.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here.  But only one of Oakland's last six opponents -- Denver -- has (like Kansas City) a top 10-ranked defense.  Additionally, Oakland has gone 'under' in 20 of 25 road games following back to back games in which 50+ points were scored!  Take the 'under' on Thursday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the KC Chiefs over the Oakland Raiders.  Oakland's 10-2, on the heels of a 6-game win streak, but comes into this road game following a 3-game Home stand.  Unfortunately for Jack Del Rio's crew, road teams off a win (and off 3 straight home games) are a soft 74-98 ATS since 1980, including 11-20 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off back to back wins.  Additionally, home teams off an upset win on the road are 133-86 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes since 1980.  Take KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Carolina.  We played on the Panthers last week, and bettors either pushed or won on Carolina, as they lost 35-32 to the Raiders, as a +3 or +3.5-point underdog.  Seattle wasn't as kind to its backers in Vegas last week, as they were upset, 14-5, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as a 5-point road favorite.  I love the Seahawks to bounce back at home this week, as they'll be out for revenge against the foe which knocked them out of last year's Playoffs.  And Carolina didn't just defeat Seattle once last season -- they also upset them here, in Seattle, 27-23, as a 7-point favorite.  But the Seahawks are 18-9 ATS their last 27 when playing with revenge, including 4-0 ATS off an upset loss and 10-3 ATS at home.  And NFL teams, playing with revenge from a playoff defeat, are an awesome 14-0 ATS at home vs. losing teams that didn't fail to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game.  Take Seattle.  Perfect 10 Club play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over the Washington Redskins.  The Cardinals gave away their first game of the season, at home, to the New England Patriots (without Tom Brady + Rob Gronkowski), and that loss set the tone for the season.  The Cardinals have yet to play up to their potential, have a 4-6-1 record, and own just one victory away from home this season.  Indeed, they've lost their last five games against the spread, including a 38-19 loss at Atlanta last week.  But even with all of these depressing stats, we'll lay the points with Arizona on Sunday.  Actually, the fact that it's failed to cover its last five games has triggered a 95-47 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ pointspread defeats.  And the fact that it lost in blowout fashion last week has put Arizona into terrific 72-23 and 81-33 ATS systems of mine.  Finally, Arizona is a superb 49-25 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 22-4 ATS if the Cardinals didn't cover either of their two previous game, and the pointspread in the current game was 5 points or less.  Take the Cardinals.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers minus the points over Tampa Bay.  The Bucs come into this game with a 6-5 record after winning their last 3 games -- all as underdogs -- vs. Seattle, KC and Chicago.  Meanwhile, the Chargers are 5-6, but did win, 21-13, at Houston last Sunday.  The Chargers still have a remote chance of making the Playoffs, but really will need to win their last 5 games to qualify.  The good news is that they have three of their last five games at home, and one of their two road games is against the winless Cleveland Browns.  So, there's definitely a chance.  We'll lay the points with the Chargers as losing teams favored over winning teams by more than 3 points have covered 59% over the past 37 years (at Week 5 forward).  Additionally, teams off 3 straight upset wins have covered just 27% on the road vs. non-division foes dating back to 1980.  Finally, winning teams, off an upset win as a home underdog, have covered just 96 of 275 games since 1990.  Take San Diego.  NFL High Roller.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Oakland.  The Bills are 6-5, and currently sit in 9th position in the AFC.  So, they surely have a shot at the playoffs, but need to win on the road in Oakland to improve their odds.  Oakland, meanwhile, is 9-2 following its 3-point win over the Panthers last Sunday, and is a virtual lock to make the Playoffs for the first time since losing to the Bucs in the Super Bowl 14 seasons ago.  We'll grab the points with Buffalo, as it falls into a 62-28 ATS System of mine.  Even better:  the Raiders are an awful 37-71 ATS their last 108 at home, including 14-38 ATS vs. an opponent off a pointspread defeat (and 0-4 ATS this season)!  And in "win situation games," where the line is 3 points or less, our 38-14 stat zooms to 17-3 ATS.  Take the Bills.  Dog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Kansas City.  Last week, we had a huge play on the KC Chiefs, and were rewarded with a 30-27 upset win over the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos.  But "out of the frying pan, and into the fire," as they say, since KC now has to travel to Atlanta to take on the 7-4 Falcons.  Last week, Atlanta blew out the Arizona Cardinals, 38-19, which bodes very well for it in this home game on Sunday.  And that's because teams off upset wins over the defending Super Bowl champs have gone an awful 0-17 ATS on the road against foes off a SU/ATS win, if that foe's W/L percentage ranged from .400 to .700.  Take the Falcons minus the points.  Roadkill Play.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over the West Virginia Mountaineers.  Yes, it's true that Baylor has lost its last five games, both SU and ATS.  So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Jim Grobe's troops in their final game of the season, on the road, in Morgantown, against the 9-2 Mountaineers.  But consider that, over the past 26 years, College Football teams have covered 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS losses in their final game vs. .600 (or better) foes off a win.  We saw an example of this just last weekend when Syracuse (+25), which had lost its previous 3 games by an average of 33.33 ppg, lost to Pitt by just 15 points to cover the spread.  I like Baylor to cover this inflated pointspread as well, as it falls into 124-75, 65-29 and 62-29 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses.  Take the Bears + the points.  Dog Shocker!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  Both teams come into this game on 3-game ATS win streaks.  Monroe did lose its last game, straight-up, 42-17, at Appalachian St, but covered the 26.5-point spread.  Meanwhile, the Rajin' Cajuns pulled a big upset in their last game, as they won outright, 24-19, as a 6-point home underdog to Arkansas State.  That upset win sets up the Cajuns in several negative 'letdown' systems of mine, with records of 123-194, 67-114 and 54-107 ATS.  Those angles would be enough for me to pull the trigger on the Warhawks, but there are two other reason I love the home underdog on Saturday.  One is that Louisiana Monroe last played two weeks ago, so it will be very well-rested for this rivalry game.  And rested teams off a loss have covered 79% since 1980 as underdogs (or PK) vs. foes off an upset win that are playing their final game of the season.  And the other reason I love Monroe is that the underdog in this rivalry has covered 15 of 18, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when getting 7+ points, and a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss by more than two touchdowns.  Take Louisiana Monroe + the points.  Rivalry Underdog of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Oklahoma State.  This game will decide the Big 12 Championship, as both teams come into the game with 9-2 records, overall, and 8-0 (Oklahoma) and 7-1 (Oklahoma St.) conference records.  We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as they fall into 'momentum' systems of mine, with records of 294-201, 168-104 and 145-75 ATS, following their 56-28 win at West Virginia in their last game. and their 45-24 win over Baylor two games back.  Those three angles all play on certain teams off big, back to back SU/ATS wins.  Even better:  Oklahoma State is a dreadful 16-36 ATS since 1999 when priced from +6 to +19 points, including 3-8 ATS vs. the Sooners, while the Sooners are an awesome 28-11-1 ATS as a home favorite, in the same price range (-6 to -19), in the same period.  Take the Sooners.  Big 12 Conference Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen minus the points over Temple, as it's backed by 157-87, 135-54 and 37-9 ATS systems of mine.  The Midshipmen have won 4 straight games, including two blowouts on the road in their last two (75-31 over SMU; 66-31 over ECU).  I won't step in front of this freight train at home, as single-digit home favorites have covered 62% over the past 37 years after scoring 60+ points in their previous game (including 3-1 ATS this season).  And, yes, it's true that Temple has won its last six games, and covered its last 11, on the heels of a defense which has given up just 23 points over its last four games (and 17.8 ppg on the season).  But teams with a better defense (more than 12 ppg better than their foe) have actually been big-time money-burners in conference title games, as they're 0-7 ATS.  Take Navy.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats + the points over Western Michigan.  The Broncos have yet to lose straight-up on the field this season, as they're a perfect 12-0.  They're also 9-3 ATS.  Meanwhile, Ohio is 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS.  But we'll take the double-digits with Ohio, as Western Michigan falls into negative 8-37 and 69-122 ATS systems of mine that fade certain unbeaten teams late in the season.  Even worse for Western Michigan:  Mid-American Conference teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have been awful in the Title game vs. foes that don't have a win percentage greater than .800, as they've covered just 1 of 10 games since 1998, including two outright upset losses as 15-point (Ball St, 2008) and 20-point (N. Illinois, 2010) favorites.  Yikes!  Take Ohio + the points.  MAC Conference Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Dallas.  Minnesota's having a decent season, as it's 6-5 SU/ATS.  The Cowboys, though, are having a great season, as they have not lost since Week 1.  But it's my opinion that the tariff has gotten too high on the road for them, on Thursday, against this solid Vikings team.  We'll grab the points, as we note that NFL teams with a win percentage greater than .900, have covered 0 of 12 games, at Week 12 forward, on the road against foes with a pointspread win percentage between .540 and 690.  Take the Vikings.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Phiadelphia.  The Packers are certainly in a free fall right now as they've not only lost four in a row, but they've also failed to cover three straight -- and by 12.5, 25 and 15 points!  That's keeping a lot of bettors away from Mike McCarthy's crew tonight, but we'll grab the points with the Pack, as underdogs of priced from +4 to +10.5 points, off three straight double-digit pointspread defeats, have covered 76.4% over the past 37 years, including 15-2 ATS the past 8 years.  Take the Packers.  NFL Elite Info.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.   

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over the Denver Broncos.  The Chiefs lost at home last week, 19-17, as a 7-point favorite to the Tampa Bay Bucs, while Denver upset New Orleans, 25-23, as a 3-point underdog.  But I look for the Chiefs to bounce back on Sunday, as underdogs (or PK) off an upset loss the previous week, are 61% ATS since 1980 against .700 (or better) foes off an upset win.  Additionally, defending Super Bowl Champs off a win, have covered just 8 of 28 division games against opponents off an upset loss.  Finally, Kansas City falls into 65-24, 43-21, 53-27 and 112-52 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off upset defeats.  Take KC.  AFC West Game of the Year!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Oakland Raiders, as Carolina falls into 25-9, 62-28 and 144-65 ATS systems of mine.  The Panthers got off to a 1-5 start, but have begun to right the ship with three wins in their last four games.  Still, Carolina's been burning money in Vegas, as it's 2-7-1 ATS on the year, including a half-point loss last week in its 23-20 win vs. New Orleans.  The Panthers know they must win to keep alive their Playoff hopes.  The Raiders, on the other hand, are sitting pretty with an 8-2 record, and are in great shape to make the post-season for the first time since the 2002-03 season, when they lost to the Tampa Bay Bucs in the Super Bowl.  Unfortunately for the Raiders, they're an awful 37-70 ATS at home, including 14-37 ATS vs. an opponent off a pointspread defeat (including 0-3 ATS this season)!  And in "win situation games," where the line is 3 points or less, our 37-14 stat zooms to 17-3 ATS.  Finally, the Panthers are a solid 67% ATS on the road since 1995 off three games where they failed to cover the spread.  Take the Panthers.  NFL Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over New England.  This will be the second of back-to-back road games for the Patriots, while New York had last week off following its home loss two weeks ago to the Los Angeles Rams.  And that extra week of rest is a big factor, as the Patriots are an awful 2-10 ATS when playing without rest and favored against a rested opponent.  Even better:  rested division home underdogs are 14-1 ATS against unrested foes if our home dog is getting more than five points.  Finally, the Jets are 25-9 ATS at home off a home loss, including 11-0 ATS as an underdog of +3 or more points.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always….Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the New York Giants.  The Browns may end up setting a new mark for futility.  Not only are they winless, at 0-11, and stand a great chance to go 0-16.  But they're also just 2-9 ATS on the season, and have (along with the San Francisco 49ers) the worst pointspread record in the league this year.  Overall, the Browns have lost their last five games in a row to the pointspread.  But I have no problem stepping in and taking the points with Cleveland this week.  One reason is that home underdogs of less than 11 points are solid bets in the last five weeks of the season if they're off back to back pointspread defeats, as they've covered about 60% in this role since 1980.  And another reason is that New York will be playing its first game on its opponents home field since October 9th when it lost to Green Bay, 23-16.  Since then, New York has played four home games, and one game on a neutral field in London.  And road teams off a win have covered just 73 of 171 games if they were at home their previous three games.  Take the points with Cleveland.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Cleveland/New York Giants game, as it falls into a 106-68 ATS Totals system of mine.  Additionally, the Giants come into this game off back to back 'unders,' but they've gone 'over' the total 23 of 31 games off 2 'unders,' including 15-2 'over' if the line was less than 46 points.  Take the 'over.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers plus the points over Miami.  The 49ers have lost 9 in a row (covering just once), and are 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS on the season.  This afternoon, they'll match-up against a Dolphins team which has caught fire, with 5 straight wins (4-0-1 ATS).  But even thought it may look 'hard' to play on San Francisco, I have no problem pulling the trigger on it, as it falls into several of my best NFL systems, with records of 289-194, 97-42 and 204-114 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, Miami is a woeful 1-17 ATS at home since 2003 when they've been favored by 6+ points.  And it's a poor 21-38-1 ATS at home off an upset win since 1980.  Take San Francisco.  NFL Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Jaguars are 2-8 this season, including 5 straight losses, but they've mainly played competitive football games.  Only thrice in their 10 games have they lost by more than a touchdown.  We'll grab the points with Jacksonville, as it falls into a super 154-81 ATS system of mine.  Additionally, teams off 5+ losses have covered 62% since 1980 as road underdogs through Week 12 of the season.  Notwithstanding its record, the Jaguars still possess the league's #7-ranked defense.  And it's outgained its opponents in yardage this season (337 to 323).  Indeed, turnovers have been the Jags' problem, as they have a negative 15 turnover differential this season.  But turnovers are often random events, and certainly can't be relied upon.  This will be a close football game.  Take the points.  Dog Shocker.   Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we cashed our Mountain West Game of the Year on Wyoming, which won outright as a double-digit underdog vs. San Diego St.  But I look for a letdown tonight, on the road, vs. the Lobos, as Wyoming falls into a negative 54-105 ATS system of mine (same angle which I used yesterday on Memphis over Houston following Houston's upset win over Louisville).   Even worse:  the Cowboys have covered a paltry 33% on the road in conference games off an upset win since 1980, and are also 2-7 ATS their last 9 vs. New Mexico.  Like Wyoming, the Lobos are also playing very good football, with five wins in their last six games (4-2 ATS).  And New Mexico's an awesome 17-6 ATS vs. foes off an upset win since 1980, including a perfect 6-0 ATS since October 31, 2009.  Take the points with the home dog Lobos.  NCAA Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Utah Utes + the points over Colorado, as Utah falls into 59-7 and 143-63 ATS systems of mine following its upset loss as a double-digit home favorite, at the hands of Oregon.  But Utah had covered its previous three games before that surprising defeat, and I expect it to rebound on Saturday vs. Colorado.  Indeed, the Utes are a money-making 23-7-1 ATS as road underdogs off a loss since 1987, including 10-1 ATS if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  And Utah's 16-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs off a pointspread loss the previous week.  Take the points with the Utes.  NCAA Underdog of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Temple.  These two teams come into this game with opposite records.  ECU is 3-8, while Temple is 8-3.  And in Vegas, ECU is 2-8 ATS, while Temple is 9-1 ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the 'hot' Owls and against the 'cold' Pirates.  But I wouldn't do that if I were you.  Indeed, teams (like Temple) off 5 or more ATS wins in a row have covered just 28 of 84 games vs. foes off 3+ ATS losses in a row.  Take East Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the UTEP Miners + the points over North Texas.  The Miners are 3-8 on the season, so they won't be going to a Bowl game.  Thus, this game, in front of their home fans, will be their final one of the season.  And I fully expect a big effort this afternoon.  They'll face a North Texas squad which upset Southern Miss, 29-23, as a 6-point underdog last week.  Unfortunately, for the Mean Green, they're 0-13 SU and 1-11-1 ATS in conference games, off an upset win, since 2005 (including 0-8 ATS on the road).  Yikes! And North Texas also falls into negative 54-104 ATS 'letdown' system of mine, based on its upset win last week.  Take Texas El Paso + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State.  We've had good success in the Nittany Lions' games this season, as we went against them at Michigan, and got the $$$ when the Wolverines blew them out, 49-10.  Then, later in the season, we played on the Nitts against Iowa in PSU's 27-point win.  Here, we'll lay the points with the red-hot Lions, as they've won 7 in a row, and covered their last six.  In stark contrast, the Spartans have lost eight of their last nine, with their only victory against league doormat, Rutgers (does that win even count?).  It's true that MSU played its heart out last week in a narrow, 1-point loss, at home to Ohio State.  But things will be MUCH different on the road, in Happy Valley.  MSU is a poor 19-32 ATS on the road off a home loss.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals minus the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars defeated Presbyterian last week, 31-7, at home, while the Vandals had last week off to rest and prepare for this contest.  And that extra week of rest has triggered a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams vs. conference opponents.  And Idaho does have revenge from a 52-45 loss to the Jaguars last season -- a game the Vandals actually led by 24-0 in the 2nd quarter.  The Jaguars are an awful 0-6 ATS on the road off a home win the past 3 seasons, and are 3-8 ATS their last 11 games away from home, overall.  Meanwhile, Idaho has cashed 7 of its last 8 games when playing with revenge, and is a strong 75% ATS since 1999 off a win, if it was playing with revenge.  Take the Vandals minus the points.  Below the Radar Blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Ohio State.  It's true that the Wolverines have lost the last 4 meetings to their rival, Ohio State.  But none of those teams were as good as this club.  And it's not often that one finds the best defensive team in the country installed as an underdog.  But that's the case on Saturday, as Jim Harbaugh's crew will be getting points from the Buckeyes in Columbus.  And the Wolverines are the only team in the country giving up less than 11 points per game.  We'll grab the points with the Maize and Blue, as revenge-minded .666 (or better) underdogs of +6.5 or more points have covered 100% percent of the time (13-0 ATS) since 1981 off a win, if their defense doesn't give up more than 13.2 ppg (at Game 10 forward).  Take Michigan + the points.  Big 10 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Kentucky.  Last week, we played against Louisville, and had our biggest play of that week on Houston, which was a 17-point underdog at home vs. Louisville.  The Cougars won outright, 36-10, so the result didn't really shock us.  But I love the Cardinals to bounce back off that defeat, as College Football teams favored by more than 18 points, off an upset loss on the road where they were favored by 8+ points, have covered a whopping 63% of the time over the past 37 years.  Even better:  Kentucky is a poor 18-26 ATS vs. foes off an upset loss, while Louisville is a super 19-8 ATS its last 27 off an upset defeat, including a perfect 7-0 when priced from -11 to -31.  Take the Cardinals.  High Noon Hanging.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State.  The Sun Devils are giving up an atrocious 38.4 points per game, yet find themselves installed as a small road favorite at rival Arizona.  We'll take the homestanding Wildcats, and go against ASU, as road favorites of 13 points or less (or PK) that give up 36.9+ ppg (at Game 5 forward) have covered just 55 of 143 games since 1980, including 1-6 ATS this season.  The underdog is also 23-12 in this series.  Take Arizona. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Friday, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Houston.  Last week, we had our #1 play of the entire week on the Houston Cougars over Louisville.  Houston went off as a 17-point underdog vs. the then-No. 3 ranked Cardinals, but won outright by a 36-10 score!  However, off that most impressive victory, we'll switch gears and actually go against the Cougars this week as a road favorite, as I look for a massive letdown by Tom Herman's men.  Certainly, the rumors surrounding the departure of the popular Houston coach won't help.  The latest has him headed to LSU as a replacement for Les Miles, who was fired earlier this season.  So, in his possible "swan song" at Houston, the game could actually take a bit of a back seat to the coaching carousel.  But regardless of all of that "noise," the fact remains that this is a major let-down situation for the Cougars, as they fall into negative 20-49, 54-104 and 14-52 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset home wins over top-level teams.  There's also a bit of uncertainty on the Memphis side with respect to who will be starting under center.  First-team QB Riley Ferguson is a game time decision, though I actually believe he will play, as he has been taking snaps in practice this week.  But he's recovering from a concussion, so there's always the chance he won't be deemed to be fully recovered on game day, and backup Jason Stewart will get the call.  Regardless, we'll grab the points with the home dog in this early game on Friday.  NCAA High Noon Hanging.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Washington Redskins.  The Cowboys are currently riding a nine-game SU/ATS win streak, which started against these Redskins on Sept. 18.  Dallas upset Jay Gruden's men, 27-23, that afternoon, and has not looked back since.  This afternoon, the Redskins will visit AT&T Stadium to try to avenge that defeat.  Washington is also playing great football, as it's 6-1-1 its last 8 games, and 7-1 ATS.  Last week, the 'Skins put up a season-high 42 points vs. Green Bay.  But that's been par for the course for Green Bay of late, as it's allowed an average of 38.25 ppg over its last four games.  The Redskins also defeated Minnesota two games back, 26-20.  But that was Minnesota's fourth straight loss in a row at the time.  The last time Washington played a team which was actually playing good football was four games back (Oct. 23) against Detroit.  And that was the one game the Redskins lost in their 6-1-1 stretch.  So, this will be a big step-up in class for Washington, and I don't think it will be up for the challenge.  Even worse:  NFL underdogs of +6 or more points, off back to back ATS wins at home, that scored 65+ points in those two previous games combined, have gone 0-12 ATS since 1980.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats are 7-4, after losing, 27-20, at Central Michigan last week, while Akron is 5-6, on the heels of a 3-game losing streak.  The Zips, therefore, need to win to gain eligibility for a bowl game.  And teams with a 5-6 record, looking to become bowl-eligible, have covered 63% of the time in their final regular season game vs. foes with a win percentage of .600 (or better).  And though it's true that the Zips are unsettled at the quarterback position, the pointspread, by my estimation, has been over-inflated relative to the issue at hand.  Take Akron + the points.  MAC Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/Washington game.  The Redskins have played back to back high scoring games, while Green Bay's gone 'over' the total in its last three.  But I look for a very low-scoring game on Sunday night, as road teams off 3+ overs have gone 'under' 67% vs. foes off back to back 'overs' if the line was greater than 46 points.  Take the 'under.' High Roller Total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over New England.  The Patriots have been installed as a double digit favorite, on the road at San Francisco.  Last week, we grabbed the double-digits with San Francisco, and got the cash when it lost by just three at Arizona. And we also went against New England, and cashed when Seattle won outright over the Patriots.  Now, New England’s on the road at San Francisco, and it’s always hard to turn down 10 or more points with a home underdog.  Indeed, since 1980, double-digit home underdogs have gone 96-74 ATS.  Also, teams off seven or more losses are a solid 149-108 ATS since 1980, including 47-27 ATS as a double-digit underdog.  Take San Francisco + the points.  Underdog Shocker. Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the game between the 49ers and Patriots.  We played on the 'under' in last week's 49ers/Cardinals game, and easily got the cash, as the game generated only 43 points.  This game, as well, should be low-scoring, as San Francisco has gone 'under' in 20 of 28 home games dating back to Sept. 22, 2013, including a perfect 5-0 'under' when getting more than 5 points.  Meanwhile, New England's gone 'under' 7-0 since 2008 when priced as a favorite of more than 8 points away from home.  Take the 'under.'  NFL Total of the Month.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Steelers/Browns game.  Both of these teams are in tailspins.  The Browns are a horrid 0-10 and have lost their last four games to the spread.  Pittsburgh also has lost its last four to the spread, and has lost its last four, straight-up, too.  I look for a high-scoring game on Sunday, as the Steelers are 39-22 'over' the total following back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the 'over.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Tennessee/Indianapolis game.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Colts won, 34-26, as a 4-point underdog.  The over/under in that game was 48.5, so it went over the total.  And both teams are off very high-scoring games their last time out (Titans won 47-25; Indianapolis won 31-26).  I look for a relatively low-scoring game this afternoon, as games have gone 'under' the total 69% of the time over the past 37 years if the two teams combined for 50+ points in their previous meeting of the season; both teams also combined for 50+ points in their most recent game; and the over/under line was greater than 50 points.  Take the 'under.'

At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Bills/Bengals game.  the Bills have played their last five games 'over' the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high scoring game, especially because the Bengals have gone 'over' in three of their last four games, themselves.  But road teams off 5+ 'overs' have gone 'under' more than 62% of the time the past 37 years if the line was 47+ points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

t 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over New York.  The Giants have won and covered four straight games, but they're now laying more than 7 points.  And, in their first nine games, the most they've been favored by is 3.5.  If the Giants were favored by 7.5 points in all their games this season, they would be 0-9 ATS (they haven't won a game by 8+ points yet).  We'll grab the points with Chicago, as the Bears fall into several of my favorite systems, including one which is 145-94 and another which 203-112 ATS since 1980.  Take Chicago + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Detroit.  The Lions upset division rival, Minnesota, in their last game.  But I look for a letdown this afternoon, as Detroit falls into a negative 56-110 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off upset wins over division foes.  The Lions are also a poor 33-53 ATS as favorites over .500 (or worse) non-division foes.  Take Jacksonville.

At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Stanford.  This will be the 119th meeting in this rivalry known as "The Big Game."  And I love getting points with teams in rivalry games, provided they can move the football.  And California can certainly do that, as Davis Webb leads the 3rd most prolific passing offense this year in College Football.  It's true that California has lost its last three games, while Stanford is on a 3-game win streak.  But like with many heated rivalries, the records generally go out the window.  Besides, home teams have covered 61.3% the past 8 seasons off 3+ losses, if their win pct was .400 or better, including 75% when getting more than 6 points.  Take Cal.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over San Diego State.  The Aztecs come into this game with a 9-1 record, and are ranked #24 in the country.  They also snuck into the rankings earlier this season (their first time since 1995), but then promptly played their worst game of the season when they lost at South Alabama, 42-24, as 19.5-point favorites.  But they're on a six-game win streak, and have covered four straight games.  But this will be a very difficult game for San Diego State to win.  Wyoming is 7-3, with wins (and covers) in five of its last six games.  And Wyoming also falls into 137-63 and 72-26 ATS systems of mine that play against certain winning teams off big ATS wins.  This will be Wyoming's final home game of the season, and San Diego State is a poor 7-14 ATS vs. foes playing their final home game.  The Cowboys are 6-0 SU and 5-0 ATS at home since last Thanksgiving, and need to win to keep pace with Boise State and New Mexico at the top of the conference's Mountain Division (all three teams are tied at 5-1).  Take the points with Wyoming.  Mountain West Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Michigan.  Last week, Jim Harbaugh's men suffered their first loss of the season, as they fell at the gun by a single point, 14-13, to the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Even worse for the Maize and Blue:  they may have also lost their starting QB, Wilton Speight, who broke his collarbone.  Regardless of who starts at QB for U-M, we're going to fade it on this Saturday.  And that's because teams off a loss as an 18-point (or bigger) favorite the previous week are an awful 29.7% ATS since 1980, including 2-14 ATS when priced from -17 to -24 points.  Take Indiana.  Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Buffalo.  The 14th-ranked Broncos are a spotless 10-0 this season, and are one of two remaining unbeaten teams (along with Alabama).   And their schedule conferred an advantage on them this week, as they haven't played for 11 days, while Buffalo will have had just seven days between its games.  And undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 or better) have covered 75% at home in the regular season since 1988 when playing with extra rest.  With Western Michigan covering 13 of 15 against foes not off a SU/ATS win, we'll lay the points with the Broncos.  NCAA Roadkill.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Duke.  We played on the Panthers last week as our "Underdog Shocker," and were rewarded not just with a cover, but an outright win as a 21.5-point underdog vs. #2 ranked Clemson.  A lot of folks might look for a letdown on Saturday, but not me.  First, the Panthers will be at home, and when teams suffer letdowns, they tend to happen on the road.  And, second, Duke comes into this game off, arguably, a bigger win, as it defeated its absolute biggest rival -- 13th ranked North Carolina -- as a 10.5-point home underdog.  Like Pitt, Duke won that game by a single point (28-27), and road underdogs are an awful 38.5% since 1980 off wins as a double-digit dog, if they're matched up against a foe also off a win.  Take Pitt.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Oklahoma State.  This is a critical game for both of these teams.  The 13th ranked Cowboys are 6-1 in Conference play, and are trying to stay in position to win the Big 12 Championship, while TCU still needs to win at least one more game to become eligible for a bowl game.  The big factor for me is that TCU had last week off to rest and prepare, while Okie State was involved in a tough, 45-44 win vs. Texas Tech.  The Horned Frogs fall into several of my best systems that involve playing on rested teams against unrested foes (with records of 43-11, 73-21, 185-119 and 111-54 ATS).  Also, the Horned Frogs are a super 19-5 ATS when playing with rest in the regular season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS at home since 2007.  Take TCU. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Iowa.  The Hawkeyes pulled a big upset last week, when they stunned #3 ranked Michigan at the gun with a game-winning field goal.  Of course, we weren't stunned, as we had a huge Elite Info play on the Hawkeyes.  But we'll switch gears and take Illinois in a home underdog role on Saturday.  Indeed, home dogs are a strong 62.2% ATS over the past 37 years vs. foes off upsets as dogs of +15 or more points (and 75% when getting more than 8 points).  Take Illinois.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over UNLV.  We played on the Broncos last week vs. Hawaii, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out the Rainbow Warriors, 52-16, as 23-point favorites.  They've favored again by a large margin tonight, and we will once again lay it.  Boise State is 62-39 ATS off a double-digit conference win, and it's also playing its final home game of the season.  That bodes well for the Broncos, as they fall into 53-17, 90-59 and 49-13 ATS "last home game" systems of mine.  Meanwhile, UNLV checks in off a 69-66 upset win over Wyoming, which has triggered two negative systems of mine, with records of 45-102 and 56-100 ATS.  Even worse: the Rebels are a horrid 1-15 straight-up and 2-14 ATS since 2004 when playing against an opponent in its final home game of the season, including 0-8 ATS if the Rebels are playing with revenge from a loss the previous season!  Last year, Boise blew out UNLV by 28 points, as a 21-point favorite.  They'll get the win and cover again on Friday.  Take Boise State.  Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over New Orleans.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Panthers were upset by Drew Brees & Co., 41-38, as a 3-point road favorite.  We'll lay the points with Carolina, as the revenger has covered 7 straight in this series.  Additionally, the Panthers fall into a super 64% ATS system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any team which was upset by its opponent earlier in the season, if it's also off an upset loss in its most recent game.  Last week, Carolina fell at home to the KC Chiefs, 20-17, as a 3-points favorite.  I look for the Panthers to rebound on Thursday night.  Lay the points.  NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Carolina/New Orleans game.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Saints won, 41-38, as a 3-point home underdog.  But NFL games have gone 'under' the total a solid 69.6% of the time since 1980 if the season's previous meeting had 55+ points scored, and the over/under line in the current game was 51+ points.  Take the 'under.' NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Louisville, as Houston falls into 28-0, 41-4 and 56-20 ATS systems of mine.  This will be a very tough test for the Cardinals, who are stepping up greatly in class (from what they've experienced much of the season).  The Cardinals were favored by 35, 19, 32, 25 and 34 points in their five most recent games.  And none of those five foes currently have a winning record in ACC Conference play (they're a combined 8-23).  Now, they're going to be playing an out-of-conference foe in Houston, which is 8-2 on the season.  And one of the things I like to do is go against certain teams after playing three straight games where they were favored by 20+ points, if they're now stepping up in class against a much more competitive opponent.  Indeed, I have a 53-21 ATS system on Houston as a big underdog vs. Louisville tonight which encapsulates that theory.  Finally, the Cougars are 11-0-1 ATS as underdogs of +2 or more points since November 17, 2012.  Take the points with Houston.  NCAA Football Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas over Ohio.  The Bobcats have won and covered their last 3 games, while Central Michigan comes into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses.  But Central Michigan will be playing its final home game of the season tonight.  And I love betting on teams off a loss, if they're playing their final home game of the season, and they're off 3 ATS losses, overall, while their opponent is off 3 ATS wins.  Those home teams have covered 76.1% since 1980 when not laying more than 3 points.  The Chippewas also fall into 121-76, 66-41 and 55-15 ATS systems of mine.  Take Central Michigan.  Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Bowling Green.  The Falcons snapped a 7-game losing streak with a road win at Akron last Wednesday.  But that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 147-62, 159-69 and 162-75 ATS since 1980.  The key last week was that Akron coughed up the football six times.  But I wouldn't expect such good fortune to occur two weeks in a row.  And especially since Bowling Green has only won the turnover battle twice in its 10 games this season, while Kent State has only lost the turnover battle three times in its 10 games.  The Falcons are also a dismal 2-11 ATS following a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers.  Take Kent State. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over New England.  The Seahawks fall into several of my best systems, with records of 95-42, 174-96 and 146-67 ATS since 1980.  Additionally, the Patriots, with a record of 7-1 (.875) fall into several negative systems of mine, including one which is 38% ATS since 1999, and another which is 52-113 ATS since 1980.  That 38% ATS angle plays against favorites of more than 7 points in the 2nd half of the regular season, with an .875 (or better) record.  Take Seattle.  NFL Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  Yes, the Steelers have lost their last three games, both straight-up and against the spread.  And, yes, the Cowboys have won and covered their last seven games, never failing to score at least 24 points in any of those wins.  But I look for Dallas' win streak to come to an end in the Steel City.  One of the things I love to do is go against NFL teams off 4 straight wins and covers, if they're on the road against a .500 or better team, and they scored 24 or more points in each of their previous four victories.  Our red-hot road teams in this situation have only covered 12 of 40 games since 1980, including 6-21 ATS when not favored by more than 3 points.  Even better for Pittsburgh:  it's 50-30 ATS vs. opponents with a win percentage greater than .730, including 39-20 ATS vs. non-division foes.  Take the Steelers.  Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the SF 49ers + the points over Arizona.  The Niners have lost 7 straight against the spread.  Even worse:  they've failed to cover their last three games by 21.5, 18 and 13 points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against San Francisco, but teams that failed to cover their last three games by 10+ points are a super 69% as dogs of +4 or more points since 1980.  Take the points with San Francisco.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Niners/Cardinals game, as it falls into a 108-58 Totals system of mine.  Additionally, teams (like San Francisco) that have gone 'over' the total by 5+ points in each of their previous four games have gone 'under' in their next game 60% of the time since 1980 if the line was 44+ points.  Take the 'under.'  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami/San Diego game 'under' the total, as it falls into a 68% ATS systems of mine.  What we want to do is play on the under if one of the team's last game totaled more than 77 points, and its opponent's previous game totaled more than 49 points.  With the Chargers in off a 43-35 win over Tennessee, and the Dolphins in off a 27-23 victory over the Jets, we'll take the 'under' this afternoon.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Eagles are 4-4 on the season, but will have an opportunity to get back on the winning track at home following two losses on the road.   And home teams, with a .500 or better record, have been terrific over the past 37 years off back to back road defeats.  They’ve covered 88 of 150 games, 59 percent, including 32-8 ATS when matched up against an opponent which won, and covered the spread in its last game by 7 or more points.  Take Philadelphia.  NFL Roadkill Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last week, Tampa Bay lost 43-28 to the Falcons.  But we'll grab the points with the Bucs, as home dogs have cashed 66% in non-division games the past 37 seasons after giving up more than 40 points in their previous game.  Take Tampa Bay.  NFL Underdog Shocker.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over California.  Mike Leach's Cougars have been dominant since stumbling out of the gate with an 0-2 record.  Since the, Wazzu has ripped off seven straight wins.  They've also covered five of their last eight games.  Their very best win was last week when they destroyed Arizona 69-7, as a 14-point favorite.  They'll now take on the defensively-challenged Bears, who gave up 66 points to Washington last week (and who have given up 47, 49, 45 and 66 points in their last four games).  I look for Washington State to blow the doors off of Cal, as Wazzu falls into 179-79, 116-40 and 15-1 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine.  And California is a dreadful 9-18 ATS when the O/U line is greater than 65 points.  Take Washington State.  Pac-12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan, as the Hawkeyes fall into 86-47, 130-69 and 135-63 ATS systems.  At the start of the season, I predicted that the University of Michigan would win the National Championship (at 12-1 odds).  Certainly, it is in great shape after starting the season 9-0.  But this will be its toughest road game of the season-to-date.  And Iowa comes into this game at Kinnick Stadium off back to back losses.  The Hawkeyes are a solid 11-2 ATS as home dogs of +3.5 or more points off back to back losses, and 30-17-1 ATS since 1980 off back to back ATS losses when not laying 5+ points.  Even better:  they're 32-10 ATS in Conference games off a road loss by more than 8 points (including 13-1 ATS since 2001).  Meanwhile, Michigan is a poor 10-25-1 ATS on the road off a Big 10 Conference win.  Take Iowa.  Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  Last week, Arkansas blew out Florida, 31-10, while the Tigers lost a very hard-fought game to Alabama.  The score in the LSU/Alabama game was 0-0 through three quarters, but Alabama scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 10-0.  I look for Louisiana State to bounce back off that shutout defeat, as road favorites of -3 or more points have covered 68% off a shutout loss over the past 37 years.  And, even though there’s nothing wrong with 68%, we can improve our stat to a perfect 100%, 11-0 ATS if our opponent won its last game by 4 or more points, which Arkansas did.  Take LSU minus the points.  Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over Hawaii.  The Rainbow Warriors were shut out last year by Boise, 55-0.  And they also lost last week, 55-0, to San Diego State!  Hawaii has not been bouncing back off losses, lately, as it's 3-11 ATS its last 14 off a defeat.  Meanwhile, Boise's 71-44 ATS off a conference win, and it falls into a system of mine which is 14-0 ATS its last 14.  That angle plays on certain .801 (or better) teams off an ATS loss.  Lay the points with Boise.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over South Florida, as Memphis falls into 99-55 and 102-44 ATS systems of mine.  The Tigers got off the schneid last week when they smashed SMU 51-7, as a 3-point favorite, to move to 6-3 on the season.  And that big, 44-point blowout win is a 'buy signal' for me.  Especially when one looks at the South Florida defense, which has given up 46 and 45 points in its last two games, and over 30 ppg for the season.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, road favorites have only covered 34 of 100 games if their defense gives up 28+ points per game, and their opponent has a win percentage greater than .560.  Take Memphis.  Below the Radar Blowout.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  The Bulldogs have won six in a row, and covered their last five.  And I certainly won't step in front of this freight train, here, at home.  In its last five games, the Bulldogs have scored 55, 56, 44, 61 and 45 points!  That bodes well for La Tech today, as home teams have covered 61% of regular season conference games over the past 37 years if they're off 3 SU/ATS Wins, and scored 150+ points in those 3 victories.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are 25-12 ATS as a home favorite of -6+ points.  Take La Tech.  Conference USA Game of the Year.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Tigers have lost their last 5 games (both SU and ATS), yet find themselves installed as a favorite vs. Vandy, which covered last week at Auburn (losing 23-16, as a 25-point dog).  It may look tough to take the Tigers, given how they've burned money in Vegas, but home favorites off ATS losses in each of their previous five games have covered a sensational 61% over the past 37 years vs. foes off an ATS win.  And Missouri's an awesome 25-8 ATS when favored at home off a loss.  Take the Tigers.  NCAA Football Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Clemson, as the Tigers fall into a negative 69-130 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain .900 (or better) teams off big wins.  Last week, the Tigers shut out Syracuse 54-0, but undefeated favorites of more than 18 points, off shutout wins, have only covered 36 of 100 at home since 1980.  And while Pittsburgh was blown out last week, 51-28, by Miami, I look for it to bounce back, as winning teams are 51-24 ATS double-digit road dogs vs. conference foes if they're off a conference road loss by more than 20 points.  Take Pittsburgh + the points.  Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.