At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Toledo.  Both of these teams had terrific starts to their 2020 Mid-American Conference campaign.  Toledo blew out Bowling Green at home, 38-3, and outgained the Falcons by 257 yards, while Western Michigan annihilated Akron on the road, 58-13, and outyarded the Zips by 228.  The Broncos are back in Kalamazoo for their home home opener, and we'll lay the points with WMU tonight.  Since 1980, unrested underdogs of less than 16 points, playing away from home, have covered just 31% vs. foes with a scoring margin of 44+ points.  And the Rockets are also a poor 3-11 ATS away from home, including 1-8 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams.  And they're 0-8 ATS off a Mid-American Conference home win.  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Arkansas.  Tennessee comes into this game riding a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, following its 48-17 loss to Alabama.  Yet the Volunteers have been installed as a small road favorite vs. the Razorbacks, who have covered all five games this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Razorbacks, and against the cold Volunteers.  But consider that, over the past 41 years, road favorites have covered 70.5% of conference games if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off 3+ ATS wins.  Additionally, Tennessee is a terrific 14-0 ATS as a road favorite of 13 or less points off an ATS loss.  Take the Volunteers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  The Irish have given up 13 points or less in five of their six football games this season.  And they're allowing a meager 10.3 ppg (against foes that average 23.9).  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. a Clemson team which has failed to cover the spread in five of its seven games this season.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on strong defensive teams as home underdogs.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 6 forward, home dogs (or PK) that allow 13.7 (or less) points have cashed 61.1% of their conference games.  Even better:  the Irish are 19-7 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +7 points, while Clemson is a wallet-busting 4-16 ATS on the road when priced as a favorite of less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Notre Dame + the points to upset Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Florida State.  The Panthers started 3-0, but have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS -- largely because of the injury to QB Kenny Pickett in the 3rd quarter of the Boston College game.  Of course, the fact that Pitt played Miami and Notre Dame their previous two games was a big factor, as well.  This afternoon's game vs. Florida State will be a welcome step-down in class for Pat Narduzzi's men.  And I love Pitt to bounce back this afternoon, as NCAA teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have covered 59% over the last 41 years as a road underdog of less than 6 points.  On the other sideline, Florida State is giving up a ghastly 35 points per game, and has covered just two of its six games this season.  Even worse for the Seminoles:  they're 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite, including an outright upset loss to Georgia Tech when they were favored by 13 points.  And they've covered just 13 of their last 37 ACC games as a favorite.  Indeed, it's hard to make a case for an NCAA team as a favorite when they give up 35 ppg.  And, at Game 7 forward, conference favorites have covered just 40% of the time since 1980, if they give up at least 35 ppg, and play an opponent with a better record (both inside the conference, and overall), and a better defense (which rates at least 11 points better).  Take Pitt + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  After opening its season with an impressive 44-34 upset win at LSU, the Bulldogs have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS.  Last week's game was particularly uninspired, as they managed just 200 yards of offense, in a shutout loss at Alabama.  But Mississippi State is back home in Starkville this afternoon.  And their opponent is the 0-4 Commodores rather than the Crimson Tide.  One of the things I love to do is play on double-digit NCAA home favorites in conference games, off back-to-back conference defeats, if they lost their previous game by 20+ points.  These teams have bounced back to cover the spread 62% of the time.  And for all of Miss State's recent problems, the Commodores have actually been worse.  Vandy is 0-4 SU this season, and has lost its last three games ATS by an average of 16.3 ppg.  And it's also 0-9 ATS its last nine when getting less than 21 points!  Take Mississippi State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Illinois.  The Gophers come into this game off back to back losses to start their 2020 season.  Certainly, PJ Fleck did not envision that his team would be 0-2 at that point, after going 11-2 last year, and being ranked #21 to start the season.  A 49-24 season-opening loss to Michigan wasn't wholly unexpected.  But last week's 45-44 overtime defeat at Maryland was a head-scratcher, as Minnesota was favored by 17.5 points.  But 0-2 road favorites, that had a winning record the previous season, have cashed 68.9% over the last 41 years.  Even better:  teams playing away from home have gone 20-4 ATS if they were upset as an 11-point (or bigger) favorite their previous game, and were off back to back losses overall.  Take the Gophers to bounce back at Champaign this afternoon.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  The Spartans pulled off a gigantic upset last Saturday when they went into Ann Arbor and upset their rival, Michigan, 27-24, as a 21.5-point road underdog.  Can MSU make it two-in-a-row?  It's not likely, as NCAA teams playing back-to-back games on the road have covered just 26.6% of the time if they won their previous game as an underdog of greater than 20 points.  That bodes well for the Hawkeyes on Saturday.  As does the fact that Iowa's a solid 39-28 ATS off back to back losses.  And it's an awesome 24-6-1 ATS off a loss when priced as a favorite of 7 points or less, including a perfect 11-0-1 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 6-0, and ranked among the Top 25, yet have been installed as a heavy underdog vs. the 4-2 Hokies.  At first blush, the point spread may seem like an overlay, given that Liberty's last three wins have been by 33, 17 and 21 points -- including a victory over ACC member Syracuse.  But Virginia Tech has won its two home games against two winning teams -- NC State and Boston College -- by 21 and 26 points.  And it's also 18-7-1 ATS at home vs. .800 (or better) opponents, at Game 6 forward (including 7-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins).  Meanwhile, underdogs (like Liberty) off 3 SU wins as a favorite are 17-43 ATS away from home.  But the clincher is that, at Game 7 forward, .857 (or better) road underdogs have cashed just 46 of 122 off a SU/ATS win by 13+ points.  Take Virginia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over BYU.  The Cougars come into this game with a gaudy 7-0 record, and have been installed as a road favorite at Boise State, which RARELY loses here at home on the blue turf.  How rare?  Boise's lost just nine of 137 home games over the past 22 seasons, and is 38-3 straight-up at home when priced as an underdog, or a favorite of 10 points or less.  And it's cashed 22 of its last 28 at home when not favored by more than 10 points!  That bodes very well for the underdog Broncos on Friday night.  More good news:  BYU's cashed just eight of 20 games as a road favorite, while Boise's cashed 75% as a revenge-minded underdog.  Meanwhile, unbeaten teams (like BYU) with a 5-0 (or better) record) have cashed just 30.4% over the last 41 years as a road favorite of 7 (or less) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Boise State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Miami (Fla.).  Both of these ACC Conference teams come into this Friday night game off a bye week.  Miami has won two straight following its 42-17 loss at #1-ranked Clemson, and is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, NC State is 4-2 SU/ATS following its 48-21 loss at rival, North Carolina, two weeks ago.  The good news for the Wolfpack is that it's 2-0 SU/ATS this season at home.  And it's also 31-14-2 ATS as a home underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  NC State is 29-14 ATS off a loss, if it's playing with revenge from a loss to its opponent in the previous meeting.  And the Wolfpack fall into an 84-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Finally, Miami is a dreadful 17-34 ATS off a home conference win, including 0-8 ATS its last eight, and 0-12 ATS when priced from -4 to -20 points vs. .250 (or better) foes.  Take North Carolina State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we had a big play on the Cowboys as a home underdog vs. Hawaii, and were rewarded with a 31-7 upset win.  In that game, we played against the road favorite Rainbow Warriors, who were off a double-digit upset conference win.  Now, here, we'll play against the road favorite Cowboys, who are also off a double-digit upset conference win.  And NCAA road favorites of less than 13 points (or PK) have covered just 48 of 141 conference games off a double-digit upset conference win.  Even better:  Wyoming has been dreadful on the road when favored by 3+ points, as it's covered just 12 of 37.  Take the Rams as a home underdog + the points tonight.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  Last year, the Golden Flashes went into Ypsilanti and stunned Eastern Michigan, 34-26, as a 4-point road underdog.  The Eagles will get their chance to avenge that defeat in this season opener.  And, if history is any guide, they will.  Indeed, teams playing with revenge from an upset home loss the previous season have cashed 68% of their season openers, when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Golden Flashes are a horrible 2-10 ATS their last 12 (and 16-32 ATS their last 48) when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels + the points over Nevada.  Last week, in their season opener, the Rebels mustered just six points at San Diego State.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against UNLV tonight, especially given that Nevada scored 37 in its upset win vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  However, over the last 41 seasons, underdogs that didn't score 7+ points to open their season bounced back to cover the spread 69.2% in their second game, if it was against a conference foe.  That bodes very well for UNLV as a double-digit underdog on Saturday night.  As do the facts that Nevada's an awful 0-6 ATS as a double-digit road favorite vs. losing teams, and 11-23 ATS on the road vs. .300 (or worse) teams.  Grab the points with UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This game features the two teams who were projected to be the Big 10's two best teams at season's end.  Unfortunately for Penn State, the Indiana Hoosiers took the luster off this game when they upset the Nitts, 36-35, as a 7-point home underdog, last Saturday.  But if there was a silver lining in its upset loss, it's that Penn State significantly outyarded the Hoosiers, 488-211.  But Indiana won the turnover battle and, ultimately, the game.  In contrast, the Buckeyes blew out Nebraska, 52-17, even though their game vs. the Nebraska Cornhuskers was closely played in the stats.  Nebraska was only outgained by 121 yards (491-370), yet one wouldn't know that by the final score.  Not surprisingly, the 'Huskers lost the turnover battle to the Buckeyes.  The Nittany Lions were 11-2 (.846) last season, with one of their two losses to these Buckeyes, 28-17, in Columbus.  Rest assured, Penn State will badly want to avenge that defeat on Saturday night.  And revenge-minded teams have cashed 63% (46-27-4 ATS) at home or on neutral fields over the past 41 years if they were not favored by more than 3 points, and owned a W/L percentage of .846 (or better) the previous season.  Even better:  if our revenger came into the game with a losing record, and its opponent was off a win, then our 46-27 stat zooms to a perfect 9-0-1 ATS.  Take Penn State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on Air Force + the points over Boise State.  The Falcons are 1-1 on the season, after losing 17-6 on the road last week.  But Air Force is back home for this game, and has been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  The Falcons were also a home underdog to start the season, and we played on them in that game vs. Navy.  Air Force rewarded us with a 40-7 blowout win, and that moved the Falcons' record as a home underdog to 8-0-1 ATS their last nine!  I look for another ATS win by Air Force as a home underdog, as it falls into a 72-30 ATS system of mine that plays on certain home underdogs off upset losses.  Take the double digits with the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The #1-ranked Tigers have scored 42, 73 and 47 points in their last three games.  And they'll now face a 4-2 Boston College squad which has surrendered 30, 40 and 27 points in its last three games, and gives up 25 ppg on the season.  Needless to say, Clemson is going to light up the scoreboard on Saturday.  Indeed, winning teams (like Boston College) have gone 51-94 ATS if they give up at least 20.5 ppg, and are installed as an underdog of 22+ points.  That bodes well for Clemson on Saturday.  As does the fact that NCAA home teams that average 45 ppg on offense have cashed 69.6% over the past 35 seasons vs. foes that are off a SU/ATS win that surrender at least 25 ppg, if our home team wasn't favored by more than 33 points.   Boston College has lost its last six games ATS following an ACC Conference win, while Clemson is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games vs. ACC rivals that won SU/ATS their previous games.  Take Clemson minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Purdue.  The Illini were roasted in their season opener last week at Wisconsin.  The Badgers were favored by 20.5 points, and blew out Illinois by 38, 45-7.  The good news for Illinois is that it's back home in Champaign this Saturday afternoon.  And it will also be playing a team which is much closer to its talent level.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on teams in their home opener off a game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 11 points, if they're playing a conference foe, and the game is competitively-priced with a line of less than 11 points.  Over the last 35 seasons, our home team has covered 65.6% of the time.  We saw this situation a few weeks ago when Troy State was blown out 48-7 by BYU, as a 14-point road underdog.  But then it returned home for its home opener, and blew out its Sun Belt Conference rival, Texas State, 37-7, as a 7-point favorite.  Last week, Purdue upset Iowa, 24-20, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, if Illinois failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have only covered 16% over the last 41 seasons as a road favorite off an upset win.  Take Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over Coastal Carolina.  After a 2-game road trip, the Panthers are back home in Atlanta to take on the 5-0 (and 20th-ranked) Chanticleers.  The last time the Panthers were on this field, they blew out East Carolina, 49-29, as a 1.5-point home underdog.  And that game continued a trend which has seen the Panthers go 8-3 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 6 points or less.  Meanwhile, the Chanticleers are a wallet-busting 2-5 ATS as a conference favorite.  And they fall into 18-55 and 7-27 ATS systems of mine that go against certain undefeated teams off ATS wins.  Take Georgia State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, we had a play on Wake Forest as a double-digit home underdog vs. Virginia Tech, and were rewarded with an upset victory.  But now, the tables are turned and Wake Forest is laying double-digits on the road.  Not surprisingly, teams that change point spread roles like this often don't find success.  Indeed, Wake Forest's only ATS loss this season came when it was a road favorite.  It's also covered just 8 of its last 26 as a road favorite, including 0 of its last 6 attempts.  And over the last 38 years, double-digit NCAA road favorites have cashed just 36.1% after winning outright as a double-digit underdog.  Take the Orange + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats have ripped off four straight wins and covers, including a 41-point blowout win over rival Kansas last Saturday.  But they'll be matched up against a West Virginia team looking to bounce back off its upset loss at Texas Tech a week ago.  The Mountaineers were favored by 2.5 in that game at Lubbock, but lost, 34-27.  The good news for WVU is that it's back home in Morgantown, where it's 6-2-1 ATS its last nine off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  Big 12 teams are a horrid 47-75 ATS as underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back point spread victories.  And West Virginia also falls into a 63-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset road losses.  Lay the points with the Mountaineers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys over Hawaii.  The Cowboys were favored last week in their season opener, but lost outright, 37-34, as a 2.5-point road favorite at Nevada.  Meanwhile, Hawaii went into Fresno State, and upset the Bulldogs, 34-19, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Off those two results, we'll step in and take the Cowboys in their home opener on Friday.  Dating back 41 seasons, College Football teams have cashed 77% in their home opener off a season-opening upset loss, if they were playing an opponent off a win, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Wyoming tonight.  Even better:  over the past 25 seasons, NCAA Football teams have cashed 63% off an upset loss to start the season, if their opponent was off an upset win to start its season. Take Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, the Panthers dropped their 3rd straight contest (and 2nd straight on the road), 31-19, at Miami.  But they'll be back home at Heinz Field to welcome the Fighting Irish to the Steel City.  This will be Notre Dame's first road game after starting the season with four straight home games.  And that doesn't bode well for Brian Kelly's men, as road favorites off 3+ home games, have covered just 27.9% over the past 26 years, if they were off a win, and playing a conference foe off a loss, if that foe was off back to back road games.  It's true that the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS their last five games.  But this ATS losing streak has created point spread value.  And Pitt falls into a 112-70 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, the Panthers fall into an 84-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  And they're 14-1-1 ATS off back to back losses when matched up against winning teams.  Take Pitt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Alabama.  Last week, the Crimson Tide won the most-anticipated game of the season, with a 41-24 victory over Georgia.  But after winning that "Battle of Unbeatens," we will look for a letdown, and fade the Tide today.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, at Game 5 forward, after a team won a competitively-priced match-up (with a point spread less than 10) of undefeated teams, such teams have cashed just 35.1% as road favorites vs. .500 (or better foes).  Even worse, if its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our 35.1% stat moves to 15.7% ATS.  With Tennessee off a blowout loss last week, we'll grab the points with the home underdog.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Navy.  The Middies won and covered for the 2nd straight game last weekend when they went into East Carolina to defeat the Pirates, 27-23, as a 3-point road favorite.  The Cougars dropped their game last week, as they fell at home, 43-26, as a 3-point home underdog to BYU (which defeated Navy, 55-3, earlier this season).  Houston plays this game with revenge from a 15-point defeat at home last season to the Midshipmen.  The good news for Dana Holgorsen's men is that they're 20-11-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 16 points (or PK).  And they're 50-28-1 ATS, overall, when playing with revenge.  Navy also falls into negative 77-126 and 64-113 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams off conference wins.  Finally, the Midshipmen are an awful 3-27 SU and 8-21-1 ATS as home underdogs of more than 7 points, and 11-27 ATS at home off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Virginia Tech.  We played on the Hokies last weekend, and were rewarded with a 40-14 blowout win over Boston College.  The Hokies are now 2-0 ATS at home, but 0-2 ATS away from Blacksburg.  That doesn't bode well for them on Saturday afternoon in Winston-Salem.  After all, the Demon Deacons are 3-0 ATS at home this season (and 0-1 ATS on the road).  Wake Forest has also been piling up the points, as it's scored 42, 66, and 40 in its last three games.  Faithful followers know I love to play on home underdogs that can score, and especially if they're good teams.  And Wake certainly fits the bill.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, home underdogs off back-to-back wins, that average at least 40 points on offense, have covered 65% when getting more than 6 points.  Grab the points with the Demon Deacons.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over Iowa State.  The Cowboys went into Lawrence three weeks ago and demolished Kansas, 47-7 to move to 3-0 on the season.  Last week, their scheduled game was scrapped due to Baylor's rash of positive COVID-19 tests, so they've had a lot of time to rest and prepare for this game.  Okie State's defense has been solid, as it's yet to surrender 14 points in a game.  And the Cowboys also fall into 109-45, 275-189 and 133-96 ATS systems of mine.  Let's take a look at our 133-96 ATS angle.  What we want to do is play on any rested home team in conference games off a double-digit conference road win.  That bodes well for the Cowboys in Stillwater, on Saturday.  As does the fact that they're 22-6 ATS after scoring 47+ points, if they weren't favored by more than 3 points in their current game.  Take the Cowboys.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma.  The Sooners finally covered the point spread in a Big 12 Conference game.  But it took an overtime session to put them over the top, 53-45, as a 3-point favorite vs. Texas.  The Sooners have covered just five of their last 18 conference games, including one of seven on an opponent's home field.  That doesn't bode well for Lincoln Riley's troops on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that TCU has covered 14 of 22 as an underdog here in Fort Worth, including a perfect 5-0 if the Horned Frogs owned a losing record.  The Horned Frogs had last week off following their upset home loss to Kansas State, as an 11-point favorite.  And they're 17-4 ATS at home when playing with rest, including 7-0 ATS off a loss.  Finally, over the past 41 seasons, rested home underdogs have cashed 71% off a straight-up loss as a favorite of 9 (or more) points.  Take TCU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Boston College.  After blowing out the NC State Wolfpack, 45-24, in Blacksburg to open the 2020 season, the Hokies had back-to-back point spread setbacks on the road, including a 56-45 loss at North Carolina last week.  But Justin Fuente's men are at home tonight, so that bodes well for them to rebound with a win and cover.  And they'll no doubt be intent on avenging the last two seasons' losses to the Eagles.  Also in the Hokies' favor:  they're starting to get back many players who missed their earlier games due to the coronavirus.  One such player is QB Hendon Hooker, who will make his first start of the season tonight (after seeing action in the 2nd half last week in Chapel Hill).  The Hokies are 61-33-1 ATS against opponents off a win, if the Hokies had a losing point spread record. And they're also 12-3 ATS off a loss, if they were playing with double revenge.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over North Carolina.  Last Saturday, the Seminoles lost their 3rd straight game to a Bowl subdivision team.  But if there was a silver lining, it was that Florida State covered the point spread for the first time this season.  A key personnel change last week was the insertion of redshirt sophomore QB Jordan Travis into the starting lineup.  The Louisville transfer played well, and will be back under center to start this ACC Conference game.  Tonight, they'll welcome the #5-ranked Tar Heels to Tallahassee.  And this is brand new territory for North Carolina as none of its players were alive the last time it was ranked among the Top 5.  It played just one other road game this season, and it was a struggle, as the Heels won by just four points, 26-22, as a 14.5-point road favorite at Boston College.  North Carolina is a money-burning 17-32-1 ATS on the conference road off a SU/ATS win, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Florida St. is 40-20 ATS off a road defeat.  The Seminoles also fall into 100-35 and 82-22 ATS systems of mine.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Texas A/M.  The Aggies stunned the Florida Gators in College Station last Saturday when they won outright, 41-38, as a 5.5-point home underdog.  But off that big upset win, we'll fade Jimbo Fisher's men on the SEC road this Saturday.  They'll be in Starkville to take on the Bulldogs, who will play with revenge from a 49-30 defeat last season to the Aggies.  Last week, Mississippi State lost to Kentucky, 24-2, as a 3-point underdog.  Turnovers were once again the culprit, as Miss State lost the ball six times to Kentucky.  And, for the season, Miss State has committed 14 turnovers to its opponents' five.  The number one goal, then, for Mike Leach's troops on Saturday will be to "hold onto the damn ball."  Texas A/M is a poor 37-55-1 ATS on the road off a home win, while revenge-minded home underdogs are a super 102-62-3 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes off an upset home win.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Central Florida.  To say that the Tigers have "revenge" would be a massive understatement.  Indeed, the Tigers have lost the last 13 meetings to UCF, including regular and post-season meetings in both 2017 and 2018.  After not playing at all last season, they've been champing at the bit to avenge those losses, and will finally get the chance this afternoon.  We will fade the favored Knights, who come into this game off a bad upset loss to Tulsa.  Central Florida was favored by 20.5 points in that game, but fell by eight, 34-26.  Unfortunately for UCF, College Football teams off an upset loss where they were favored by 18+ points, have rebounded to cover just 48 of 132 games when they were favored by 25 points or less.  Like the Knights, the Tigers also come into this game off a loss, 30-27, as a 1.5-point road underdog at SMU.  The good news, though, for Memphis is that it's 38-21 ATS off a loss, if it wasn't an underdog of 3+ points in that defeat.  Take Memphis + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over South Alabama.  The Jaguars were big underdogs in each of their first three games, and went 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS.  But here, South Alabama will be a favorite for the first time this season.  Unfortunately, the Jaguars have been horrid as a favorite over the years.  Indeed, South Alabama is 1-12-1 ATS its last 14 when laying 2 or more points (and 3-17-1 ATS when not getting more than 5 points).  That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that Sun Belt favorites of 6 or less points are an awful 71-109-2 ATS at home, or on neutral fields.  Finally, the Bobcats fall into 99-34, 160-82 and 397-285 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams in conference games that lost SU the previous week.  Take Texas State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave + the points over SMU.  We played on the Mustangs in their last game, and were rewarded with a 30-27 victory against the Memphis Tigers.  But that was a massive emotional game for SMU, as they were at home, and playing with revenge from six straight defeats to the Tigers.  Here, the shoe is on the other foot, as it's Tulane which is at home, and playing with revenge from five straight losses to SMU.  The Mustangs are a horrid 8-24 ATS their last 32 road conference games after a home conference win, including 0-10 ATS if SMU owned a win percentage of .666 (or better).  And Tulane falls into a 36-4 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home (or neutral-sited) underdogs off a loss against opponents off a win.  Take Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers come into tonight's Sun Belt Conference game off a 52-23 upset win over Arkansas St.  But off that upset win, we will fade Coastal Carolina tonight, as Sun Belt teams are an awful 8-30 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points in conference games, if they're off an upset win, and their opponent is also off a straight-up win.  Even worse, the Chanticleers fall into negative 27-77 and 111-200 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins.  Finally, Coastal Carolina has covered just 30.7% of the time as an underdog of more than 7 points, while the Cajuns are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS their last nine when priced from -6 to -14 points.  Take Lafayette.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Kentucky.  The Bulldogs opened their season with an impressive 44-34 upset win (as a 14.5-point underdog) at LSU -- a game in which QB K.J. Costello threw for an SEC-record 623 yards (and five touchdowns).  Understandably, the Bulldogs suffered a letdown last week when they fell at home to Arkansas, as a 16.5-point favorite.  But off that upset defeat, we'll grab the points with Miss State against the Wildcats, who are 0-2 SU/ATS this season.  Kentucky's never been reliable as a home favorite vs. SEC rivals, as they've covered just 13 of 35.  And Mississippi State also falls into a 99-50 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses, if they were favored by 13+ points in that upset defeat.  Finally, SEC Conference teams have gone 122-85 ATS away from home off an upset loss.  Take the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Marshall.  Three weeks ago, we played on Marshall as a home underdog vs. Appalachian State, and were rewarded with a 17-7 upset victory.  The Thundering Herd didn't play either of the last two weekends, but are back in action tonight, at Western Kentucky.  The Hilltoppers finally got into the win column last Saturday with a three-point win at Middle Tennessee, though they failed to cover the 7-point spread.  For the season, WKU is 0-3 ATS.  But we'll take the points with the Hilltoppers tonight, as home underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss have covered the spread 83% of the time over the last 41 years vs. undefeated conference foes off an upset win.  Moreover, Marshall is 22-38 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-6 ATS off an upset win.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over North Carolina State.  Last week, Virginia fell to #1-ranked Clemson, 41-23, while the Wolfpack upset then-No. 24-ranked-Pittsburgh, 30-29, as a 14-point underdog.  They'll now look to avoid a letdown.  But they'll be playing their 3rd straight road game.  And the Cavaliers have not lost at home in their last nine at Charlottesville.  We'll play against the Wolfpack, as NCAA teams off upset wins as a double-digit underdog, have covered just 30.7% since 1980 if they were playing their 3rd straight road game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  when playing without rest, NC State has covered just six of its last 37 on the road in competitively-priced games with a point spread less than 8 points, including 0 for its last 9.  Finally, the Cavs fall into 81-21 and 99-34 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off double-digit road losses.  Lay the points with UVa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles + the points over North Texas.  The Eagles were thrashed last week, 66-24, by the Tulane Green Wave, as a 3.5-point underdog.  And that was the 3rd straight point spread loss by Southern Miss to start the season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Southern Miss after last week's debacle, where they failed to cover the spread by 38.5 points.  But consider that teams that are winless ATS, at Game 3 forward, that failed to cover the spread by 35+ points in their previous game, have cashed 60% ATS over the last 41 years.  That bodes well for the Golden Eagles tonight.  As does the fact that Conference USA underdogs are 63-31-4 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses, when matched up against a conference foe off a loss.  Moreover, North Texas is a miserable 16-34 ATS in conference games when the pointspread was between +6.5 and -6.5 points.  Finally, the Mean Green fall into negative 285-395 and 90-196 ATS systems of mine that go against certain home favorites off straight-up losses.  Take the Golden Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Air Force + the points over Navy.  We played on the Midshipmen in their last game, a 27-24 upset win over Tulane (after trailing 24-0 at halftime).  Now, Navy will travel to Fort Collins to take on its military rival, who will be playing its first game of the season today.  Like many rivalries, this has been an underdog-oriented series.  Since 1992, the underdog has gone 19-8 ATS, including 6-1 ATS at home.  Additionally, the Falcons are 18-8-1 ATS their last 27 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0-1 ATS at home.  And they're 88-63-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  Finally, Navy has covered just 14 of 41 off an upset win when playing a non-conference foe, including 4-15 ATS its last 19 as a favorite.  Take Air Force + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Virginia Tech.  The Blue Devils have started this season 0-3 -- its worst start in the 13-year tenure of coach David Cutcliffe -- with three double-digit losses to Notre Dame, Boston College and Virginia.  But Cutcliffe believes his team is "close" to breaking through with a win, as he's been heartened by how his team has looked in practice.  The Blue Devils have been at their best when dressed up as an underdog, as they're 30-15-1 ATS their last 46, including 9-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +14.5 points.  Take Duke.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A/M Aggies + the points over Alabama.  The Aggies will look to snap their 7-game losing streak to the Crimson Tide when these two SEC Conference rivals meet in Tuscaloosa, on Saturday afternoon.  In Texas A/M's first game, it edged Vanderbilt, 17-12, as a 31.5-point favorite, while Alabama comes into this game off a 38-19 win at Missouri, as a 28.5-point favorite.  We'll take the Aggies as a double-digit underdog, as SEC Conference teams have gone 145-81 ATS in the regular season against .500 (or better) SEC Conference rivals, if our 'play-on' team was off a SU win, but an ATS loss.  Additionally, the Aggies fall into 52-21, 41-14 and 32-6 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis.  The Mustangs are 3-0, and have been scoring a lot of points this season.  They tallied 50 last week vs. SF Austin, and 65 the previous week at North Texas.  For the season, they're averaging 48.67 ppg.  As faithful followers know, I love playing on NCAA teams that can score.  And NCAA home underdogs off back to back games where they scored 48+ points, have cashed 69.2% since 1980, including 76.1% when playing with revenge.  With SMU, indeed, playing with revenge from a 54-48 loss to Memphis last year, our 76.1% tightener is satisfied.  Take SMU.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over the TCU Horned Frogs.  Texas lost last season, 37-21, to TCU, so it will be out for revenge this afternoon, in Austin.  The Longhorns' offense has been quite impressive this season, as it's averaging 61 ppg, on 582.5 ypg of total offense.  One of the things I like to do is play on revenge-minded teams that can score.  Since 1980, NCAA teams that average 55 ppg have cashed 78.7% when favored, and playing with revenge.  Even better:  TCU is a horrible 16-42-1 ATS vs. .600 (or better) revenge-minded opponents.  Lay the points with the Longhorns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  Both of these teams enter today's game with identical 2-0 records.  But the Cougars have played the much more difficult schedule.  BYU opened its season with a 55-3 blowout of Navy.  And then it followed that up with a 48-7 trouncing of Troy State last week.  We played on BYU in last Saturday's victory, and we'll come right back with it tonight, as it's outscored its opponents by 46.5 points per game.  And that bodes well for it here, as teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 44+ points per game have covered 63% since 1980 when they were at home or on a neutral field.  Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 0-11 ATS when priced between +23 and +31.5 against non-conference foes.  Take Brigham Young.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Troy.  Both of these teams come into tonight's affair off blowout wins on the road.  The Trojans trounced Middle Tennessee St. in Murfreesboro, 47-14, while the Cougars annihilated Navy, 55-3, in Annapolis.  One difference, though, between the teams.  BYU has had the last 19 days off, while Troy played last Saturday.  We'll lay the points with the Cougars, as rested NCAA home favorites, of less than 40 points, are 128-76 ATS in non-conference home games, if they own a win percentage greater than .750.  Take the Cougars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Miami-Fla.  Miami defeated Louisville, 47-34, last Saturday.  But it gave up over 500 yards to Louisville, which outgained Miami, 506 to 485.  The Hurricanes, though, benefited from three Louisvlle turnovers, and that was the Cardinals' undoing.  Meanwhile, the Seminoles had last week off to lick their wounds following a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12.  There's no doubt that Florida State will be enormously motivated to bounce back today, especially given that it's playing with revenge from a 17-point defeat to these Hurricanes last season.  We'll grab the double-digit with Florida State, as rested, revenge-minded teams, off a season-opening loss, have cashed 66% since 1980 vs. unrested foes.  Even better:  the underdog in this rivalry has gone 26-12-1 ATS over the last 40 years.  Take Florida State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Georgia Tech.  Not much was expected of the Yellow Jackets this season, as they were picked to finish last in the ACC preseason poll.  But Georgia Tech stunned Florida State in Tallahassee last week, as a 13-point underdog.  Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, teams off an upset conference road win to start the season generally have letdowns their next game, as they've covered just 35% over the past 41 years.  The Knights are 19-6-1 ATS their last 26 when priced from -5.5 to -21.5 points.  Lay it.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State.  Both Marshall and App State opened their 2020 campaigns with solid wins.  Marshall blew out Eastern Kentucky, 59-0, while the Mountaineers took care of Charlotte, 35-20.  We'll fade Appalachian State, as Sun Belt Conference favorites, with a .500 or better record, are an awful 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 1-17 ATS their last 18) as favorites vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on Navy + the points over Tulane.  The Midshipmen were blown out at home in their first game of the season, 55-3, by BYU, as a 1.5-point underdog.  Meanwhile, Tulane went into South Alabama, and defeated the Jaguars by three points, 27-24.  The fact that Navy lost to BYU should not have come as a surprise, as the Midshipmen are 8-16 their last 24 home openers.  But Navy's gone 12-5-1 ATS its last 18 road openers, and it's 119-65 ATS its last 184 away from Annapolis, including 33-8 ATS off a home defeat.  Take Navy to rebound this afternoon.  Grab the points.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last season, the Chanticleers went into Lawrence, and upset the Jayhawks, 12-7, as a 7-point underdog.  We'll lay the points with Kansas in this rematch, as Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 73% over the last 20 years at home when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes.  Even better:  Kansas is an awesome 33-6 SU and 25-14 ATS when favored by 3 or more points, including 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Louisville.  These two Bluegrass State rivals met in Nashville last season, and the Cardinals came out on top, 38-21, as a 10.5-point favorite.  That was the 11th straight time Louisville has defeated Western Kentucky, dating back to 1982.  So, there's nothing the Hilltoppers' coach, Tyson Helton, will want more than to end that losing streak tonight.  Both of these teams had rebirths last season under 1st-year coaches.  Helton led the Hilltoppers to a 9-4 record, following a 3-9 campaign in 2018.  And Scott Satterfield guided Louisville to an 8-5 record after the Cards went 2-10 in 2018.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is to play on certain revenge-minded teams, and the Hilltoppers fall into several of my better revenge angles, with records of 129-72, 22-6, 72-31, 58-22 and 80-37 ATS.  The Cardinals have been installed as a double-digit favorite, but they're a wallet-busting 5-15 ATS their last 20 as a home favorite of more than 10 points.  And they're 3-14 ATS their last 17 as a home favorite, priced from -6 to -13.5, vs. non-conference foes.  Grab the points with Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane minus the points over South Alabama.  Last week, the Jaguars went into Hattiesburg, and upset Southern Miss, 32-21, as a 12-point underdog.  Prior to that win, the Jaguars had not won away from home in 15 games.  South Alabama will be back home for this game, but I don't believe a 2nd straight upset is in the offing.  Indeed, the Jaguars fall into two negative "letdown" systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins that have records of 106-181 and 67-113 ATS since 1980.  The Jaguars are an awful 35.7% ATS at home off a straight-up win, while Tulane has cashed 75% as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins.  And the Green Wave's coach, Willie Fritz, has gone 28-13 ATS as a favorite in his career, whether here at Tulane (since 2016), or at Georgia Southern before that (2014-15).  Take the Green Wave to blow out South Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the West minus the points.  The West has dominated the East-West Shrine game of late, with 4 straight wins.  And, in those four games, the East squad has averaged 9.7 ppg.  That doesn't bode well for the East team on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that the East's three QBs are Tommy Stevens (Miss State), Kevin Davidson (Princeton) and James Morgan (Florida International).  In contrast, the West has the best QB (Mason Fine, North Texas) on its roster, along with Tyler Huntley (Utah) and Kelly Bryant (Missouri).  Lay the points with the West in the Shrine game on Saturday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Pittsburgh.  This Quick Lane Bowl game will be played in the backyard of Eastern Michigan, as Detroit's Ford Field is just 36 miles away from Ypsilanti.  So, the crowd will definitely lean in favor of the underdog.  Pitt comes into this game off back to back losses -- and failed to cover the spread in those defeats by 16 and 24.5 points -- yet it's laying almost two touchdowns to the Eagles.  I have all the respect in the world for the job Pat Narduzzi is doing at Pittsburgh, as his team ranks #11 in defense this season (302.5 ypg).  But one of the things I will RARELY do in a bowl game is lay a lot of points -- and especially if the favored team isn't one of the best teams in the country (like an Alabama, LSU, Ohio State or Clemson-type of team).  And Pitt is certainly not of that caliber.  Another thing I will rarely do is lay ANY amount of points with a team which isn't playing well.  It's one thing to TAKE points with a team off a loss, or back-to-back losses to end the season.  But quite another to lay points with such clubs.  To wit:  since 2004, Bowl favorites, priced from -7.5 to -17.5 points, off back to back losses, are 0-11 ATS!  And, speaking of 11-0 ATS, that's the Eagles' point spread record away from home vs. non-conference teams when Eastern Michigan wasn't getting more than 15 points.  Finally, Pitt is a wallet-busting 8-22 ATS when laying 8+ points away from home, including 0-10 ATS if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game by double-digits.  Take Eastern Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over BYU.  The Cougars mustered just 3 points in their final regular season game -- a 13-3 defeat at San Diego St.  And that was their fourth straight point spread defeat to end the season.  Hawaii, in contrast, covered three of its last four games (and won four of its last five).  We'll fade BYU tonight, as it's a horrid 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite.  Even worse:  teams that scored less than 7 points in their previous game have covered just 13.3% in the Bowls over the last 40 years provided they weren't getting 5+ points, and also not playing with revenge.  And BYU isn't playing with revenge here, as it defeated Hawaii in Provo last year, 49-23, as an 11-point favorite.  This game, however, is in Honolulu.  And home underdogs have covered 64.1% in the post-season since 1980.  Finally, Hawaii's a super 22-3 ATS at home, if it owned a winning record, and didn't fail to cover the spread in the previous meeting by more than 15 points.  Take the Rainbow Warriors + the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs + the points over LSU.  The Bulldogs have lost just once this season.  And that was a 20-17 setback vs. South Carolina, in a game where the Bulldogs committed four turnovers (against 0 for the Gamecocks).  The calling card for this Georgia team is its defense, as the only time it has given up 20 points in a game was that loss to South Carolina.  For the season, Georgia's given up just 10.4 ppg, while LSU's defense rates 11.66 ppg worse, at 22.1.  We'll take the points with the Bulldogs, as underdogs with a defense which gives up, at least, 7.9 less points than its opponent, have gone 35-14-1 ATS in the post-season.  Additionally, the Bulldogs are an awesome 24-7 ATS their last 31 away from home.  Take the Bulldogs + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over New Mexico State.  The Aggies are 2-9 on the season, while Liberty is 6-5.  So, this will be the final game of the season for the Aggies.  Interestingly, this will be the 2nd time this season that these two teams have played each other, as they met in Las Cruces back in October.  The Flames won that game, 20-13, as a 4-point favorite.  And I look for them to sweep the season series with a blowout win, on Saturday.  It will be Liberty's final home game of the season, of course.  And New Mexico State is an awful 5-15 ATS on the road against a foe playing its final home game.  Even worse:  it's 4-44 straight-up and 16-35 ATS on the road when not favored by 4+ points.  Finally, Liberty falls into my favorite College Football system, which is 91-41 ATS, and plays on certain teams off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win.  Take the Flames.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Arkansas.  Both of these teams are mired in long losing streaks.  The Tigers are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games, while Arkansas has lost its last eight games (2-6 ATS).  But in November, the Tigers have been much more competitive than Arkansas, as Missouri's failed to cover the spread by just 8.3 ppg, while Arkansas has failed to cover the spread by an average of 15.16 ppg.  It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but since 1981, losing teams, off ATS losses in each of their last four games, have actually covered 67.7% as big, double-digit favorites.  And Missouri also falls into an 83-31 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses.  Finally, the Tigers are 9-0 ATS since 1986 off 5 straight losses.  Take Missouri.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Boise State.  Both teams come into this game with issues at the quarterback position.  Utah State's Jordan Love suffered an undisclosed injury last Saturday vs. Wyoming, and is questionable for this week.  Likewise, Boise State used its 3rd string quarterback, Jaylon Henderson, vs. New Mexico last week.  Henderson did pass for 3 touchdowns and 292 yards in that game -- a 42-9 win, as a 24.5-point favorite -- to earn Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors.  But it must be said that Henderson's performance came against a Lobos team which is the worst Division I (FBS) team on Boise's schedule this season.  The Aggies, at 5-1 in Mountain West games this year, will be a much more difficult test. Even worse for Boise:  its top defensive player -- Curtis Weaver -- hurt his right leg last week, and also might be in street clothes for this game.  We'll grab the points with Utah State on Saturday night, in its final home game of the season, as the Aggies fall into a strong conference system.  What we want to do is play on Mountain West home teams with a winning record -- both within the conference and overall -- if they're not favored by 6+ points.  Such teams have covered 67 percent, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points in their final home game of the season.  And Mountain West conference teams, regardless of their record, have also gone 41-24 ATS as underdogs in their final home game of the season.  Take the Aggies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Eastern Michigan.  We played on Northern Illinois last Wednesday, at Toledo, and got the $$$ with it in a 31-28 victory, as a road underdog.  That moved the Huskies' record to 4-6 on the season.  So, if it wins its final two games, then it will become bowl-eligible.  We'll play on Northern Illinois tonight as a home favorite, as losing teams (at Game 9 forward) have cashed 65.1% since 1980 if they were off a win, and favored at home by 3 (or more) points over a conference foe off a SU/ATS win.  Even better:  Northern Illinois has gone 15-2 ATS off an upset win over a conference foe, including a perfect 11-0 when favored by 3+ points.  And Eastern Michigan is a woeful 12-30 ATS on the road off a straight-up win.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Minnesota.  Last week, we played on the Gophers + the points over Penn State, and were rewarded with a 31-26 upset victory over the then-undefeated Nittany Lions.  But off that upset win over Penn State, we'll fade Minnesota on Saturday.  For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins over undefeated opponents (that hadn't lost through at least their first 7 games) have had letdowns the following week, and especially on the road where they've covered just 38.0%.  But that's not the best part.  If our 'play-against' team (here, Minnesota) is now playing an opponent with a .666 (or better) record, then our road teams have covered just 13.3% since 1983.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana Tech.  The Bulldogs come into this game on an 8-game win streak, and are one game ahead of Southern Miss in the West division race.  Marshall also is in prime contention to make the Conference USA Title game, as it's 4-1 in conference play, and is a half-game behind Florida Atlantic in the East division standings.  We'll take the home team tonight, and go against Louisiana Tech, as unrested underdogs of +3 (or more) points, on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have covered the spread in just 33.9% of their conference games since 1980.  Even worse for the Bulldogs:  they're an awful 4-25 straight-up, and 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of +5 (or more) points off a win.  Take Marshall.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Toledo.  The Huskies come into this game off a 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan.  But off that poor performance, we'll look for Northern Illinois to bounce back tonight.  Indeed, road underdogs off a 37-point (or worse) upset loss, have cashed 75% in Conference games since 1990 vs. opponents off a straight-up win.  Also, Northern Illinois is a super 42-24 ATS their last 66 as road underdogs, including 3-1 ATS off an upset loss.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Louisville.  Last week, we played on the Cardinals as a home underdog vs. Virginia, and got the $$$ in a 28-21 upset victory.  But we will switch gears, and go against Louisville on the road this week.  They'll travel to south Florida to take on a 5-4 Miami squad playing their final home game of the season.  And the Hurricanes are returning home after upset road wins at Pittsburgh, and at Florida State.  And I love them to extend their win streak on Saturday, as they've cashed 91% over the last 40 seasons off an upset conference win the previous week.  Additionally, winning teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 58% over the last 40 years off back to back road wins, if matched up against a conference foe.  And, finally, Miami also falls into 191-95 and 125-51 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home favorites off wins vs. foes off an upset win.  Take the Hurricanes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Washington.  The Beavers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog notwithstanding the fact that they come into this game off back to back upset ROAD wins (at California and Arizona).  Meanwhile, the Huskies enter tonight's fray off back to back HOME losses to Oregon and Utah.  We'll take the points with Oregon State, as home underdogs of more than 7 points, off back to back wins, have covered 78% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take the Beavers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over South Florida.  Temple dropped its last two games -- both SU and ATS -- which lowered its record to 5-3 on the season.  But .600 (or better) teams have gone 71-49 ATS as a road favorite off back to back losses.  And the Owls are an awesome 73-44-1 ATS its last 118 on the road, while the Bulls are a horrid 12-24-1 ATS at home vs. conference rivals, including 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Take Temple.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Miami-Ohio.  In their last game, the Bobcats went into Muncie, Indiana, and upset Ball State, 34-21, as a 2-point underdog.  Off that win, we'll play on Ohio, as it's gone 8-0 ATS at home off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Red Hawks come into Athens off back to back upset wins over Northern Illinois and Kent State.  Unfortunately, they're not likely to make it 3 upset wins in a row.  Indeed, since 1980, road underdogs off an upset road win have cashed just 36% vs. conference foes off a win, if our road dog also won as an underdog two games back.  The Bobcats are also a super 11-2 straight-up, and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Red Hawks.  Take Ohio to blow out Miami.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over SMU.  In this battle for American Athletic Conference West division supremacy, we'll side with the homestanding Tigers.  Memphis comes into this game with a 3-1 record in the AAC, one game behind SMU, which is 4-0, and a half-game behind Navy, which is 4-1.  So, this game is a "must-win" for the Tigers if they want to get back to the AAC Championship game in December.  And the Tigers have been a juggernaut at home vs. conference foes, as they've won 10 of the last 11.  Even more impressive is the fact that they've covered 9 straight home conference games -- by an average of 10.04 points per game!  Meanwhile, SMU is a dreadful 2-8 ATS its last 10 road games vs. conference foes, including 0-5 ATS vs. foes with a .400 (or better) win percentage.  And it's also 2-12 ATS in conference road games off back to back conference wins, and 12-34 ATS as road underdogs of +10 or less points (or PK).  Finally, Memphis falls into 82-46, 364-266, 123-73, 184-104 and 66-28 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with strong offenses (Memphis averages 39.5 ppg).  Lay the points with the Tigers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, the Aggies downed Air Force, 42-32, which snapped Air Force's 3-game SU/ATS win streak in this series.  But I love Air Force to avenge that defeat, as it's 9-3-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  And this is a huge game for Air Force, as it currently sits one game behind Utah State in the Mountain West's division standings.  And the Aggies fall into a negative 72-123 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that sit atop their Conference standings.  Last week, Air Force had a nice tune-up for this game when it pasted Hawaii, 56-26.  That was the Falcons' 2nd straight double-digit win, which has triggered a great 69.7% ATS 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any unrested NCAA team off back to back double-digit wins, and back to back double-digit covers, if it was playing at home vs. a conference rival, and not favored by 6+ points.  That bodes well for the Falcons on Saturday.  As does the fact that it's 10-0 ATS the past five years off a 20-point (or greater) win.  Take Air Force.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over SMU.  Last week, we played on SMU as a 9-point favorite, and got the $$$ in a 45-21 blowout win over Temple, which entered the game with a 5-1 record.  That was a huge win for the Mustangs, as it moved their record to 7-0, and dropped Temple to 5-2.  But off that big win, we'll look for a letdown by SMU on the road on Thursday.  Indeed, over the last 40 seasons, undefeated NCAA teams, with a record of 7-0 (or better), have cashed just 28% on the road following a win (and 14-point cover) over a once-beaten or undefeated team.  Even worse for SMU:  it's an awful 12-33 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 0-11 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -20 points!  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Arizona State.  After being upset on the road by USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point favorite, the Utes have righted their ship with back-to-back blowout wins over Washington State (38-13) and Oregon State (52-7).  We played on the Utes last week in their 45-point win over the Beavers.  And we'll come right back with them here, at home, vs. Arizona State, which upset Washington State last week.  Indeed, the Utes fall into a great 'momentum' system of mine.  What we want to do is play on any team which scored 87+ points, combined, in their two previous games, while giving up less than 24 points, combined, in those two games, and is now matched up against an opponent playing away from home off an upset win.  That angle's cashed 77.1% over the past 40 seasons.  The Utes currently have the nation's 2nd-ranked rush defense (2.4 yards per rush; 52.8 yards per game), and 8th-ranked scoring defense (13.1 ppg).  I look for them to shut down Arizona State.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over UNLV.  Last week, the Rebels pulled off a huge upset, when they went into Nashville, and defeated Vanderbilt, 34-10, as a 16-point underdog.  But before one gets too excited about that victory, it also must be noted that Vandy is now 1-5 straight-up, and 0-6 ATS on the season.  UNLV has to stay on the road for this game, and travel to Fresno for this Friday night contest.  Once again, UNLV is a double-digit underdog.  Unfortunately, conference underdogs priced from +3.5 to +18.5 points, off a non-conference win as an underdog of more than 14 points, are a horrid 0-14 SU/ATS since 1990!  Even worse for UNLV:  it generally doesn't put back-to-back good games together, as it's a wallet-busting 27-56 ATS off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, Fresno's 26-10-1 ATS its last 37.  Lay the points with the Bulldogs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana Lafayette.  Arkansas State returns home tonight after playing its last two games on the road, while Lafayette comes into Jonesboro off a home game last week.  That bodes well for the Red Wolves, as Sun Belt Conference home underdogs have cashed 65.3% off back to back road games, if they were off a SU/ATS loss.  Additionally, La-Lafayette has covered just 30% over the last 19 seasons as favorites vs. Conference foes off upset losses, while Arkansas State has gone 42-29 ATS at home vs. Conference foes, including 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS their last 10 with revenge.  And the Red Wolves do, in fact, have revenge, as they lost 47-43 last season to the Cajuns.  Finally, the Rajin' Cajuns fall into negative 84-162 and 40-111 ATS systems of mine after losing, 17-7, at home last week to Appalachian State.  Take Arkansas State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Cincinnati.  We played on the Bearcats last week in their 27-24 upset win over Central Florida.  Although we certainly won't bemoan the result, it's also true that Cincinnati greatly benefited from the four Central Florida turnovers, as Cincy was outgained by 82 yards.  The Bearcats now have to travel to Houston, and have been installed as a road favorite.  Houston also comes into this game off a win, 46-25, at North Texas.  And the Cougars are 30-11 ATS at home off a road win, including 7-0 ATS their last seven.  More ammunition for taking the points with the home underdog:  Houston's won 25 of its last 28 games at TDECU Stadium.  And two of its three defeats were by just 3 and 4 points.  Finally, American Athletic home underdogs, priced from +4 to +12.5 points, have gone 20-5 ATS off a win.  Take the Cougars.  AAC Game of the Month.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse.  The Wolfpack come into this game off an 18-point blowout loss at Florida State twelve days ago.  And they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games.  But we will take NC State here, at home, as it falls into a 96-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Additionally, the Wolfpack are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS at home off a 14-point (or worse) defeat when matched up against a .500 (or better) conference foe off a home win.  Finally, ACC teams on a 3-game (or worse) point spread losing streak are 59-37 ATS in home conference games, if their opponent isn't also on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing with a week of rest.  Take NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns over Appalachian State.  These two teams met twice last season, with the Mountaineers taking both games by similar scored.  They won in the regular season, 27-17, and then prevailed in the inaugural Sun Belt Conference Title game, 30-19.  But both of those games last season were played at home, in Boone, North Carolina.  Tonight's game will be at "The Swamp," in Lafayette, Louisiana, where the Rajin' Cajuns have won six straight games.  Even better:  the Cajuns are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season, and Billy Napier's men also fall into 36-16 and 20-1 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Finally, Lafayette has scored 77, 45 and 37 points in its three previous games.  And rested NCAA teams on a 3-game (or better) win streak, that have scored more than 150 points over their three previous games, have cashed 81.1 percent since 1980 at home.  Take Louisiana-Lafayette.  SUN BELT GAME OF THE WEEK.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Auburn.  The Gators come into this match-up of Top 10-rated SEC teams off back-to-back stellar defensive efforts.  Two weeks ago, the Gators held Tennessee to 3 points in a 31-point victory.  Then, last Saturday, Florida shut out the Towson Tigers, 38-0.  The 5-0 Gators are giving up just 8.8 points per game, yet have been installed as a home underdog in this contest.  We'll take the points with Florida, as home underdogs have gone 67.7% ATS, at Game 5 forward, if their defense was surrendering 13.5 (or less) points per game, and they were matched up against a conference foe with a winning SU and ATS record.  Even better:  Florida's an awesome 65-38-2 ATS in SEC Conference games off back to back double-digit wins, while Auburn's 12-25 ATS vs. Conference foes off back-to-back double-digit wins (including 1-6 ATS if Auburn was favored).  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Central Florida.  The Bearcats are 3-1 SU/ATS on the season, with their only SU/ATS defeat to Ohio State.  Of course, a 42-0 loss to Ohio State is not all that bad, given it was the lowest amount of points the Buckeyes scored all season.  Last week, the Bearcats went into Marshall, and blew out the Thundering Herd, 52-14, as a 4-point road favorite.  Off that 38-point blowout win, we'll grab the points with Cincy in this American Athletic Conference opener for the Bearcats.  Since 1980, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 58.1% in home Conference games off a blowout win the previous week by more than 35 points.  That bodes well for the Bearcats on Friday.  As does the fact that Cincy's 27-15 ATS its last 42 as underdogs priced from +3 to +7.5 points, while Central Florida's 4-12 ATS its last 16 as a road favorite of -3 to -7.5 points.  Take the Bearcats.  NCAA Elite Info Winner.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars + the points over Utah.  Both of these teams were upset last week.  Wazzu blew a 32-point lead in a 67-63 loss to the UCLA Bruins, while Utah fell to USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point road favorite.  The silver lining for Mike Leach's Cougars is that QB Anthony Gordon established a school record with nine touchdown passes, and he also threw for 570 yards.  Unfortunately, the Cougars committed six turnovers to aid the Bruins' comeback, which was the 3rd largest deficit overcome in NCAA Football Division 1 history.  I love Washington State to rebound on the road as an underdog at Utah.  After all, since 1981, single digit underdogs off a loss as a double-digit conference home favorite, have covered 66% the following week vs. conference foes.  And Washington State is a solid 16-5 ATS its last 21 as a road underdog, while Utah is a dreadful 18-37 ATS in the regular season as a favorite of less than 12 points (or PK) vs. winning foes.  The Cougars have covered the last four meetings vs. Utah, by an average of 8.9 ppg.  Take Washington State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over California.  The Golden Bears are 4-0 and ranked among the Top 20 teams in the country after last week's upset win at Mississippi.  And that was the 2nd upset win on the road this year for Justin Wilcox's men.  Unfortunately, California has not had the same success in front of their home faithful.  In Berkeley this season, the Bears are 0-2 ATS.  And they're a wallet-busting 5-16 ATS their last 21 when favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Even worse for California:  since 1980, Pac-12 (or Pac-10) Conference teams have cashed just 13.3% at home off an upset road win, if they were matched up against a .666 (or better) foe off a loss.  Last week, Arizona State fell to 3-1 on the season with a 34-31 upset loss to Colorado, so it qualifies in my 86.7% ATS angle.  And the Sun Devils are also a super 16-3-1 ATS off a loss if their opponent is a Pac-12 Conference rival off a SU win, including 9-0 ATS their last nine as an underdog.  Off last weekend's defeat, we'll grab the points with the Sun Devils to bounce back on this Friday.  Take ASU + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Southern Mississippi.  The Crimson Tide come into this Saturday game off 3 wins, but back to back point spread defeats in their last two games.  However, the good news for Alabama fans is that it is 13-1 ATS in the regular season since 1996 off back to back wins, if they lost against the point spread in each game.  And their only ATS loss over this 14-game stretch was by a mere point (65-31 vs. Arkansas, as a 35-point favorite, in 2018).  Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 1-7 ATS as an underdog of 28+ points.  And Alabama also falls into a super 63-21 ATS system of mine which plays on certain big favorites to blow out their opponent.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Houston.  Tulane is off to its best start since 2013 (when it also began the season with a 2-1 record).  And the Green Wave's lone defeat this season was on the road, at #8 Auburn, 24-6.  In its other two games -- both at home -- the Green Wave thrashed Florida International, 42-14, as a 3-point favorite, and also demolished Missouri St., 58-6.  This game will also be played in New Orleans, at Yulman Stadium, where Tulane has won 10 of its last 14 games (7-4 ATS).  Faithful followers know I love playing on teams that can score, and especially when they're matched up against woeful defensive clubs.  Tulane is averaging 35.3 ppg, while Houston is surrendering 32.3 ppg, so I fully expect Willie Fritz's men to light up the scoreboard tonight.  Tulane is a super 7-0-1 ATS at home off a win by 28+ points.  And it's 25-12 ATS when priced between -3 and -7.5 points at home, or on a neutral field.  The favorite in this rivalry has gone 16-2 straight-up, and 14-4 ATS when priced at -3 or higher.  Lay the points with Tulane.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Cornhuskers have yet to break into the point spread win column this year, as they're 0-2 ATS with losses to Colorado and South Alabama, while the Huskies are 2-0 ATS with point spread victories vs. Illinois State and Utah.  Last week, Nebraska was favored by 4 points on the road, but fell to the Buffaloes in overtime, 34-31.  It actually played a great first half, and broke out to a 17-0 lead.  QB Adrian Martinez was key in that first stanza, as he was 9-of-9 for 180 yards, and also ran for 45 yards on six carries.  Unfortunately, he fumbled the ball three times in that game -- and lost two of them -- which was a big part of the Cornhuskers' undoing.  I like Nebraska to rebound this evening, as in Game 3 of the season, College Football home favorites have covered 65% of the time off an upset loss, if they were winless ATS on the season, and their foe was perfect ATS.  That bodes well for Nebraska tonight.  As does the fact that it has covered 69.7% since 1980 off a SU/ATS loss the previous week, if its opponent was off a point spread win (including a perfect 8-0 ATS when priced from -9 to -18.5 points).  Lay the points with Nebraska.  NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Western Kentucky. This game will be played at a neutral site -- Nissan Stadium, in Nashville, Tennessee. Last week, we played on Western Kentucky as a touchdown underdog at Florida International, and were rewarded with a 20-14 upset victory. The Hilltoppers will now try to make it two-upsets-in-a-row tonight, and snap a 10-game losing streak to Louisville in the process. Last year, it started off well enough for WKU, as it broke out to a 14-0 lead. But it couldn't finish the job, and fell 20-17, as a 23.5-point underdog. The point spread is much lower in this game, so there's much less margin for error for the Hilltoppers. The Cardinals are 1-1 on the season, including a 35-17 defeat in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame. But Louisville was only outgained by 40 yards (423-383) in that game, and the Irish are ranked #7 in the country. Louisville did bounce back last Saturday with a 42-0 whitewash of Eastern Kentucky. And NCAA teams are 335-252-6 ATS away from home in the regular season off a shutout win, if matched up against an unrested foe. Lay the points with Scott Satterfield's Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over North Carolina.  Interestingly, these two ACC Carolina rivals have not played since 2015.  The Tar Heels won (and covered) that game, which was the fourth straight meeting won, and fifth straight meeting covered, by the home team.  The Tar Heels are 2-0 after upsetting Miami-Fla last week, and South Carolina in Week 1.  Mack Brown's men will now play their first true road game of the season.  Unfortunately, NCAA teams off back to back upset wins to start a season have cashed just 37% since 1980.  Even worse:  undefeated teams have cashed just 28% since 2001 in Game 3 of the season, if they are off an upset win, and now playing their first road game of the year.  With North Carolina entering this game on a 7-game road losing streak, we'll lay the small number with Wake Forest.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs + the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met last season in Minneapolis, and the Gophers survived to win 21-14, after a trick play went awry in the game's final moments.  The Bulldogs were on Minnesota's 4-yard line and attempted to tie the score with a halfback pass to their tight end, who was stationed in the back of the end zone. Unfortunately, Josh Hokit didn't get enough on his throw, and it was intercepted by Minny's Antoine Winfield, Jr.  We will play on the Bulldogs as a home underdog in this revenge game, as Big 10 teams have been dreadful as non-conference single-digit road favorites vs. revenge-minded foes.  Since 1984 they've covered just 36% of the time.  Take Fresno + the points.  NCAA Payback Payday!  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Nevada.  Last week, Oregon lost, 27-21, to Auburn, while Nevada upset Purdue, 34-31, as an 11-point underdog.  I love the Ducks to bounce back on Saturday, as College Football teams favored by more than 15 points have covered 66.1% of non-conference games since 1980, if they were off a loss to a non-conference foe, and their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over LSU.  This is the first match-up of this College Football season which features two teams ranked among the Top 10.  LSU is ranked #6, while Texas is #9 in both the AP and the Coaches Poll.  This will be just the 6th time since 1994 that the Longhorns have been installed as a home underdog vs. a non-conference foe.  And Texas was a perfect 5-0 ATS in those five other games.  The Longhorns opened their season with a 45-14 blowout win over Louisiana Tech, as a 19-point favorite.  That also bodes well for Texas on Saturday night, as home underdogs have cashed 61% since 1980 off a SU/ATS win by 20+ points to open the season.  Finally, Longhorns head coach Tom Herman has gone 13-2-1 ATS as an underdog in his stints with Houston and Texas, including 6-0-1 ATS when priced as an underdog of +7 or less points.  Take Texas.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, the Cowboys shocked Missouri, 37-31, as a 15.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately, that sets them up for a big letdown on the road this week.  Indeed, since 1984, teams off an upset win to kick off a season have covered just 19.04% in Week 2, if they were matched up against a non-conference foe off a SU/ATS loss.  That doesn't bode well for Wyoming in San Marcos on Saturday night.  Nor does the fact that Wyoming has covered just 23% as a non-conference road favorite (or PK) over the last 35 seasons.  Take Texas State + the points.  NCAA Game of the Week.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International.  Both of these teams lost their season openers.  The Panthers were trounced, 42-14, at Tulane, as a 3-point underdog.  In contrast, the Hilltoppers were favored by 10 points last week against Central Arkansas.  But they were upset, 35-28.  And that continued a long-term trend in Western Kentucky games where the underdog has cashed 72 of 112 games (64.2% ATS).  Even better:  if the underdog was playing an opponent which wasn't off a win, then our 72-40 stat improves to 35-9 ATS, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +7 to +11.5 points.  Take the Hilltoppers + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores + the points over Purdue.  We played against Vanderbilt last week, and were rewarded with a 30-6 Georgia win (and cover).  But this Saturday, we'll take the points with Derek Mason's men.  Purdue also lost last Saturday.  But unlike Vandy, which was a 23-point underdog, Purdue was favored by double-digits.  Yet, it was upset, 34-31, by a Nevada team which only returned 11 starters from last season.  Turnovers were Purdue's major problem last week, as it coughed up the ball five times!  But even though that's unlikely to happen again this week, I still don't believe the Boilermakers will bounce back.  Indeed, dating back to 2005, College teams off an upset loss, as a favorite of -6 (or more) points in Week 1, have covered just 27.5 percent in Week 2 (including 21.8% vs. non-conference foes).  Meanwhile, SEC teams, off a loss to a conference rival, have covered 62% since 1983 as underdogs of +3 (or more) points in non-conference games.  Take the points with Vandy.  NCAA High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Akron Zips + the points over UAB.  Akron was blown out, 42-3, at Illinois last weekend, while UAB hung on to defeat Alabama State, 24-19.  The Zips look to bounce back off that loss and the good news is that they're back at InfoCision Stadium to play their home opener.  Since 1980, home underdogs of less than 14 points have cashed 65 percent if they scored less than 7 points in their season opener!  Also, UAB has been awful as a single-digit road favorite, as it's cashed just 4 of 19 games.  I look for Akron to pull the upset in new head coach Tom Arth's first game at home.  Take the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Commodores have been an SEC doormat for much of their existence, and have lost each of their last five seasons.  They've gone 0-5 ATS their last five as a home underdog, and I look for them to get blown out tonight by a Georgia team which surely will want to redeem itself following its poor showing in the NCAA Football Playoffs last year against Texas.  The Bulldogs are 20-8 ATS their last 28, while College Football teams have cashed 64% in Game 1 of the season (including 8-0 ATS their last eight) when favored away from home by more than seven points vs. conference foes.  Take Georgia.  NCAA Football Elite Info.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets + the points over Kentucky.  The Rockets have won every single season this decade.  They're 79-37 straight-up since 2010, and will go for their 10th straight winning year in 2019.  One of Toledo's best point spread categories over this time is on the road, where it's gone 31-20 ATS.  That bodes well this afternoon vs. a Kentucky team, which has tallied just three winning seasons among its last nine.  And the Wildcats have gone just 23-32 ATS at home in this stretch, including 0-7 ATS as a home favorite since 2017, and also 0-7 ATS its last seven vs. non-conference foes, dating back to November 28, 2015.  The Mid-American Conference has cashed 37 of 65 on the road vs. SEC Conference foes, and the Wildcats are ripe for an upset, as they graduated all-SEC running back Benny Snell, who was drafted in the 4th round by the Pittsburgh Steelers, as well as linebacker Josh Allen, who was the National Defensive Player of the Year last season, and drafted in the 1st round by Jacksonville.  Take the points with Toledo as a big underdog.  NCAA Football High Noon Hanging!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Colorado.  This rivalry has been controlled by Colorado over the last four years, as it's gone 4-0 straight-up, and 3-0-1 ATS, including a 45-13 win to open its season last year.  But I love Colorado State to avenge that defeat, as it falls into 127-61, 35-13 and 80-48 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Even better:  the underdog is 19-11-1 ATS in this series, including 7-0 ATS priced from +7.5 to +17.5 when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss.  Also, the Rams are 25-13-1 ATS as a non-conference underdog of +12 or more points.  Take the points in this rivalry game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Cincinnati.  This is a big revenge game for the Bruins, who were walloped, 26-17, as a two-touchdown favorite by the Bearcats last season.  That was Chip Kelly's debut as the UCLA coach, following the departure of Jim Mora.  And it was a harbinger of things to come, as UCLA finished the 2018 campaign with just three victories.  The reality last season was that Kelly was missing a lot of pieces on offense.  UCLA's star quarterback, Josh Rosen, had just been drafted into the NFL.  And the Bruins also had graduated their top two receivers, and three all-conference linemen.  More important to me than its 3-9 record last season was the fact that UCLA improved toward the end of the year, as it gained experience playing under Kelly.  Indeed, the Bruins went 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, including a 34-27 upset win over rival Southern Cal.  This season, however, most of UCLA's key personnel will be back, as it returns 19 starters (9 offense; 10 defense).  In contrast, the Bearcats are returning just 14 players (7 offense, 7 defense).  That bodes well for UCLA.  As does the fact that the Bruins are an awesome 70-45 ATS in regular season non-conference games.  Take UCLA + the points.  NCAA Football Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Alabama.  It's hard for me to pass up this many points with a team which has the better rush defense, the better rush offense, and the better defense in terms of points per game.  Clemson has allowed 11.9 ppg, while Alabama's defense has given up 16.2.  And Clemson rushed for 6.7 yards per carry (against foes that give up 4.5 ypr).  On defense, the Tigers were also stellar, as they gave up just 2.4 yards per rush (against foes that averaged 4.4).  In contrast, Alabama rushed for 5.3 ypr (against foes that surrendered 4.5 ypr (the same as Clemson's opponents, but 1.4 ypr less than Clemson gained)).  And Alabama gave up 3.5 ypr against foes that averaged 4.8 ypr).  When all the numbers are blended together, then Clemson's total YPR differential was +2.40 relative to Alabama.  And its defense differential was +3.28 ppg.  To illustrate how rare it is that you get that combination of YPR and Defensive PPG strength in a big underdog in a bowl game, consider that in the last 39 years, there has NEVER been an underdog of +6 or more points -- until Clemson in this game -- that owned a defense 3.28 ppg better, and a Total YPR differential of +2.40.  Ok, so what if we relaxed our stats and just looked at how single-digit underdogs did if they owned a defensive PPG differential greater than 0, and a Total YPR differential greater than 0?  Then, we find those teams have gone a very solid 104-71-2 ATS in the Bowl games.  That's one reason I love Clemson as a big underdog.  Another is that the Tigers lost in the semi-finals last year to Alabama.  And defending National Champions are an awful 8-29-2 ATS when priced from -2 to -6.5 points vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-19 ATS if their opponent covered its previous game by more than 3 points!  With the Tigers in off a 30-3 blowout of Notre Dame, as a 10.5-point favorite, we'll grab the points with the Tigers.  Take Clemson.  NCAA Game of the Month!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs have the unenviable task of playing in the SEC Conference where they often have to get by Alabama in order to have a shot at a National Championship.  They were unable to do it this year, and lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Title game.  They're now double-digit favorites vs. Texas.  But Bowl favorites of more than 7 points, off a loss in their previous game, are an awful 33-56 ATS since 1986.  And if they're playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss that also failed to cover the point spread two games back, then our Bowl favorite is 2-8 ATS.  Texas comes into this game off a 39-27 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game.  But double-digit Bowl underdogs off a loss in which they gave up 38+ points, have cashed 73%, including a perfect 5-0 ATS if their opponent was also off a loss.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.