At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over LSU.  Last week, the Tigers upset then-No. 6-ranked Florida, 37-34.  And LSU was a 24-point underdog in that game!  Can Ed Orgeron's men make it two-upsets-in-a-row?  I wouldn't bet on it, as defending National Champions are a soft 96-126-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse, if our defending champs pulled off an upset in their previous game, then those teams are a woeful 4-12 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS if they weren't favored by 3+ points in the current game.  That doesn't bode well for LSU on Saturday afternoon.  Nor does the fact that College football home teams have covered just 10 of 35 games off an upset win, if they were an underdog of 20+ points in their previous game.  And LSU is a wallet-busting 2-11 ATS off a road upset win.  It's true that LSU has won the last four meetings by 21, 29, 16 and 17 points.  But Ole Miss is a solid 31-17-1 ATS when playing on the road with revenge vs. an opponent off a win.  And revenge-minded SEC Conference teams, with a .500 (or better) record, are 30-13 ATS as a favorite away from home, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -4.5 points.  Take Lane Kiffin's Rebels to blow out LSU.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Marist.  In their last game, the Jaspers upset Rider, 87-77, as a 1-point home underdog.  Off that win, we'll play on Manhattan this afternoon, as home teams, off double-digit upset home conference wins, have cashed 58% of conference games since 1990 (212-155 ATS) when not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for the Jaspers today.  As does the fact that it's cashed 64.7% over the last 31 years at home off an upset win, if it was favored against a conference foe.  Finally, the Red Foxes have covered just 14 of 41 games off a SU win.  Lay the small number with the homestanding Jaspers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Southern Cal.  There's a saying that it's "better to be lucky than good."  And that might end up applying to the Oregon Ducks, if they can take advantage of their good fortune to be playing in this Pac-12 Championship game.  After all, Oregon finished 2nd to Washington in the Pac-12 North division.  But COVID-19 issues scuttled Washington's plans, so Oregon was tabbed to replace Washington as USC's opponent.  It's true the Ducks have dropped their last two games, while USC is 5-0 straight-up, and has covered each of their last three.  But single-digit underdogs off a straight-up loss are 9-1 ATS their last 10 in Conference Title game.  And the Ducks are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven vs. the Trojans.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats + the points over Rhode Island.  The Rams come into this game off back to back road losses at Wisconsin and at Western Kentucky (though they covered each in defeat to extend their ATS win streak to 4 games).  Meanwhile, Davidson was upset, 63-52, as a 10.5-point home favorite in its last game.  But off that upset loss, we'll back the Wildcats in this underdog role tonight, as teams off double-digit losses, as double-digit favorites have covered 64% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back defeats.  Additionally, Bob McKillop's men are 24-11-1 ATS off a SU loss when not getting more than 3 points in a conference game.  And they're 21-10-1 ATS in competitively-priced conference games with a point spread of 3 points or less.  Meanwhile, the Rams are a poor 5-9 ATS as a home favorite vs. conference foes off upset losses.  And Rhode Island also falls into a negative 13-45 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off 4+ ATS wins.  Take Davidson + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds minus the points over Dixie State.  These two Beehive State schools are located less than an hour apart from each other, and should begin to play with more regularity now that Dixie State has made the jump to Division 1 this season.  Both teams have gotten off to good starts this season.  Dixie is 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS.  The Trailblazers pulled off an upset win in their last game, as they won, 73-70, at Denver, as a 2-point underdog.  But that upset victory has triggered a negative 39% ATS system of mine which goes against certain .818 (or better) teams off upset wins, if they're on the road vs. opponents also off a win.  Like Dixie State, the Thunderbirds have yet to lose against the spread this season, as they're 4-0 ATS.  And they've also cashed 62% at home vs. foes off upset wins.  Even better:  .720 (or better) Big Sky conference teams have cashed 67% of non-conference games (and 71% of games vs. foes off a SU win).  Lay the points with Southern Utah.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Notre Dame.  In their last game, the Irish upset Kentucky, 64-63, as a 7.5-point road underdog.  Can Mike Brey's men make it two-in-a-row?  It's not likely, as Mike Krzyzewski's men fall into one of their best situations tonight.  The Blue Devils come into this game on an 0-4 ATS run, including an 83-68 blowout upset loss at the hands of Illinois eight days ago.  But the Dukies are a spectacular 26-8-1 ATS in the regular season when they were on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 18-3 ATS as a favorite vs. ACC schools.  The Blue Devils are also 6-0 SU/ATS vs. the Irish since 2017, and 18-5 ATS off a double-digit upset defeat.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers minus the points over Texas San Antonio.  Wayne Tinkle's Beavers have gotten off to a rough start this season, as they've lost their last three games -- all of the upset variety.  That streak should end this afternoon, as home favorites of more than 6 points -- off exactly 3 losses -- have covered 65% since 2000 if they were favored in each of those three defeats.  Even better:  Texas San Antonio has covered just 10 of its last 33 away from home when installed as an underdog.  Take Oregon State to blow out the Roadrunners.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats minus the points over Charlotte.  In this Mecklenburg County battle, we'll side with the homestanding Wildcats against the 49ers.  Even though Davidson's just 20 miles from Charlotte, this still counts as a road game for the 49ers.  And it will be Charlotte's first road game of the season.  Unfortunately, the road has not been kind to Charlotte, as it has gone 13-45 SU and 18-39 ATS since January 2016.  But that's not the worst part.  When the 49ers have been installed as a dog of more than 8 points, they've gone 1-19 SU and 2-18 ATS on the road!  Lay the double-digits with Davidson.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers are unbeaten, at 6-0, as they enter Big 10 Conference play.  But the Gophers were double-digit favorites in five of those six games, so the reality is that they're really not been tested.  Here, they're installed as a mid-sized road underdog against a 4-2 Illinois team ranked #13 in the country.  Over the last 20 years, teams that were undefeated in their non-conference games prior to starting conference play have covered just 41% as underdogs of more than 5 points in their first conference game.  Even worse for Richard Pitino's troops:  they're a dreadful 12-34 ATS their last 46 Big 10 conference road games when installed as a single-digit underdog (or PK).  And they're 16-36 ATS their last 52 vs. Illinois (including 0-11 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points).  Take the Illini minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over Houston Baptist.  The Owls were upset here, at home, 72-61, on Sunday by New Mexico.  But off that double-digit upset defeat, the Owls now fall into several of my better bounce-back systems, including one with a 58-21 ATS record.  It's true that these two teams met a week-and-a-half ago -- a game which Rice won by 22, 86-64, as a 9.5-point favorite.  And it's also true that I will often take teams to avenge such blowout losses.  But it's hard to make a case for the Huskies this afternoon.  After all, they've lost their three road games this season by 24, 23, and 25 points.  And the fact that they come into this game off a SU win, while Rice checks in off an upset loss is enough for me to ignore the revenge angle.  Finally, the Owls have cashed 63% as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points off an upset home loss.  Lay the points with Rice.

At 7 pm, on the CBS Sports Network, our selection is on the George Washington Colonials minus the points over William & Mary.  GW comes into this game off back to back upset losses at UMBC and at Delaware, while William & Mary also comes into tonight's game off a loss at Old Dominion.  We'll lay the points with the Colonials, as home teams have cashed 62.3% since 1990 in non-conference games after being upset in two straight games.  And George Washington is a super 32-16 ATS off a loss when priced from -6.5 to -16.5 points, if their opponent is also off a defeat.  Take George Washington minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Steelers lost for the first time last week, 23-17, as a 5.5-point favorite, after 11 straight wins to open the season.  And it was the (now 5-7) Washington Football Team which handed Pittsburgh its first loss -- and at Heinz Field, no less.  In stark contrast, the Bills played, perhaps, their best game of the season, as they went out to the west coast (Arizona) to play a good 49ers team, and upset them, 34-24, as a 2-point underdog.  That was the first time the Bills won as an underdog away from home since the last time these two teams met (Dec. 15, 2019), when Buffalo won 17-10 at Pittsburgh.  Off those two results, we'll play on Buffalo as a small home favorite on Sunday night.  For technical support, consider that, in the last four weeks of the season (and the Playoffs), NFL home favorites off a SU/ATS win, in which they covered by more than 10 points, have cashed 64.3% vs. road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, in which they failed to cover by more than 10 points.  And the Steelers are an atrocious 8-26-1 ATS on the non-division road, if they owned a .727 (or better) win percentage, and weren't getting 3+ points.  Take the Bills.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the Atlanta Falcons.  To say the Chargers played last week the worst game of this current NFL season would not be an overstatement.  After all, they were favored by 2.5 points against New England, but lost 45-0.  Not only was that the worst performance -- relative to the point spread -- of any team this season, but it was just the second time since 1980 that an NFL favorite failed to cover the spread by more than 46 points.  After the game, the Chargers' players were saying all the right things.  Even QB Justin Herbert defended his coach's much-maligned decision to keep his rookie signal caller on the field throughout the blowout since, as he put it, he just wants to "be out there and give everything [he has]."  I believe Los Angeles will bounce back strong off that debacle.  And, for technical support, consider that NFL home underdogs (or PK), off a 35-point (or worse) defeat, have gone 50-29-2 ATS.  Additionally, Atlanta is 1-7 ATS its last eight as a road favorite.  And losing teams (like the Falcons) are a soft 17-33-1 ATS the last four weeks of the season as road favorites vs. foes off losses by more than 15 points.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Rice Owls minus the points over New Mexico.  Rice is off to a perfect 4-0 start this season, and is 2-0 ATS in their two lined games.  Meanwhile, this will be the Lobos first game of the season, as COVID has greatly impacted their program.  Even worse, the state of New Mexico has issued an order which prohibits the team from practicing or playing games within the state.  So, UNM has created a "home away from home" in West Texas, and has been scrimmaging non-division I opponents like South Plains College and Lubbock Christian University.  Whether such scrimmages will have prepared the Lobos for their first Division I game of the season this afternoon remains to be seen, but we will bet against it.  One reason is that the Lobos have been dreadful on the road over the last few seasons, even without the COVID-related distractions.  Dating back to 2015, New Mexico is 26-60 SU away from home, and 31-52 ATS, including 16-40 ATS vs. foes not off a SU/ATS loss.  And Rice is 27-15 ATS as a single-digit favorite vs. non-conference foes.  Take Rice minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on North Carolina-Greensboro minus the points over Norfolk State.  In its last game, NC Greensboro was upset, 85-80, by Coppin St, as a 21.5-point road favorite!  That was the biggest upset loss sustained on an opponent's home court in the last 31 seasons.  And that was also the 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS) suffered by NC Greensboro.  We'll lay the points this afternoon, as this is a great bounce-back spot vs. Norfolk St., which won and covered last Monday vs. Hampton.  For technical support, consider that home teams have covered 64% since 1990 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite away from home when matched up against a non-conference opponent off a straight-up win.  Take NC Greensboro.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 5-4 on the season, and enter this Commonwealth rivalry game on a 4-game win streak (and 5-game ATS win streak), while the Hokies have lost their last four games SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot underdog Cavaliers.  But consider that road teams off a SU win, that were also on a 3-game ATS win streak, have covered just 50 of 124 conference games against foes off a SU loss, that were on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  And if our road team owned a winning record, and was an underdog of 7 or less points, then our road teams have gone 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Fairfield Stags + the points over Iona.  These two teams played last night, and the result was not pretty for the Stags, as they shot just 27% for the game, and were annihilated 70-42.  Last night, Fairfield was a 4-point home underdog; tonight, the line has been adjusted upwards by a few points to better reflect last night's score.  For some, it won't be enough of an adjustment, but for me it is, as I believe Fairfield will play a much better ballgame tonight.  For technical support, the Stags fall into a 90% 'bounce-back' system of mine which plays on certain teams off 20-point (or worse) losses.  And they also fall into a 63.5% revenge system of mine which plays on certain underdogs of +3 (or more) points that suffered a bad loss to its opponent earlier in the season.  Take the Stags + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Boise State.  The Cowboys were upset at home, 17-16, by New Mexico in their last game.  And Wyoming was favored by more than two touchdowns!  But off that horrible game, we'll take the Cowboys to bounce back on Saturday as a big home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 30 seasons, NCAA home underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 12, have cashed 73%.  And Wyoming's also cashed 75% since 1980 as a conference home underdog off an upset loss.  Take the points with Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Florida State.  The Blue Devils were shut out, 48-0, at home by Miami last weekend, which was their 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS).  But conference road underdogs off home shutout defeats have bounced back to cover 57% over the last 41 years.  Likewise, Florida State comes into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  However, that's not too surprising, as it's been several years since the Seminoles have been a good point spread team.  And they've been especially poor when matched up against an ACC conference rival which wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  Now, if Florida State was playing a conference foe which DID win and cover its previous game, Florida State has actually had a winning ATS ledger in those games, as those opponents tended to suffer letdowns.  But when its ACC opponent DIDN'T win and cover its previous game, then Florida State is a horrid 29-59-4 ATS.  But that's not the worst part.  If the Seminoles were favored by 17 points or less (or PK), then they've gone 10-40-3 ATS.  Yikes!  Take Duke + the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Gardner-Webb.  The Panthers are off to a solid 3-1 start after coming back from an early 10-point deficit to upset Northwestern, 71-70, in Evanston, on Wednesday.  The Panthers showed a lot of moxie and competitive spirit on the road, as they trailed for all but the last 5.6 seconds of the game, before Justin Champagnie's game-winning dunk gave them the final margin of victory.  The key for Pitt was its tough defense, as it held the explosive Wildcats to more than 31 points below their scoring average.  And they're getting terrific offensive production across the board, as they're the only ACC school with three players ranked among the ACC's Top 10 in scoring.  Those players are Au'Diese Toney (18.3 ppg), Xavier Johnson (18.0) and Champagnie (18.3).  And Champagnie is also the only ACC player who is averaging a double-double, as he has pulled down 11 rebounds a game to lead the entire conference.  This afternoon, Jeff Capel's men will welcome the Bulldogs to the Steel City, and the Bulldogs played two ACC member schools last season, and lost by 16 (N. Carolina) and 27 (Virginia Tech) points.  We'll lay the points with Pitt, as I believe the momentum gathered from Wednesday's game will carry the Panthers forward at home today against an overmatched Big South conference school.  Take Pitt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  Last week, Miami went into Durham, and shut out Duke, 48-0, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Suffice it to say, when a college football team shuts out its opponent on the road, then it's playing really well.  And one of the last things I will ever do is step in front of a team which just pitched a road shutout.  Indeed, these teams have gone 192-128-9 ATS in the regular season since 1980 (60%), including 18-1 ATS their last 19 when favored by 11 points or less, and off a win by 34+ points.  Take Miami to blow out North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last week, the 9-0 Chanticleers faced off with the 9-0 BYU Cougars.  The Chanticleers were double-digit underdogs, but pulled off the upset, 22-17.  However, teams that win "Battles of Unbeatens" -- at Game 8 forward -- tend to have letdowns in their following game, and have done especially poor when favored by double-digits off an upset win, as they've gone 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Even worse for Coastal:  the Trojans are 15-5-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 7-1-1 ATS at home, and 6-1 ATS as an underdog.  Take the Trojans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Akron.  The Bulls slaughtered Kent St, 70-41, in their last game, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And Buffalo is averaging 50.75 points on the season.  Faithful followers know I love playing on college football teams that can score.  And, over the last 41 years, home teams that average more than 50 points per game on offense, have covered 63.5% vs. losing teams, if our home team was favored by less than 45 points (and 75% if our team scored 65+ in its previous game).  That bodes well for the Bulls on Saturday.  As does the fact that Akron has covered just four of its last 19 games as an underdog, while Buffalo is 14-0 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Mid-American conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Nitts last week as our biggest play of the season-to-date, and were rewarded with an easy win over Rutgers.  After starting the season 0-5, Penn State's won its last two games, and I look for it to make it three-in-a-row on this Saturday.  And it's a perfect situational spot for the Nitts, as Michigan State will be playing its final road game of the season off three straight home games!  Since 1980, teams playing their final game of the season on the road have covered just 28% of the time, if they played their three previous games at home, and their opponent was off a point spread win.  Even better for Penn State:  it's 11-2 ATS in its final home game of the season when priced from -9 to -23 points.  The Nittany Lions were a better team than reflected in their 0-5 start, and that was evident last weekend.  We'll take Penn State to close out the season strong in Happy Valley.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over the Milwaukee Panthers.  In its last game, Kansas State was stunned by Division II member Fort Hays State, 81-68.  And, to make the loss even more ignominious, the Tigers were 0-3 this season prior to the win, and became the first Division 11 team to defeat a major conference opponent on the road in 20 years!  The last team to pull off such a feat was Texas A&M Corpus Christi, when it bested Texas Tech, 86-80, on Dec. 18, 2000.  Of course, after that embarrassing loss, the Red Raiders bounced back to win their next game, and they also covered the point spread in their next four subsequent lined games.  I expect Kansas State to also bounce back tonight.  They'll have the distinct advantage of playing a Panthers squad which hasn't taken the court yet this season.  And Milwaukee ended last season on an 0-7 ATS run, and is 6-19-1 ATS its last 26.  Meanwhile, K-State is 9-5 ATS its last 14 at home off a home loss.  Lay the points with the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over New England.  The Patriots come into Thursday night's game off back to back upset wins.  Two weeks ago, Bill Belichick's men upset Arizona, 20-17, in Foxborough, and followed that victory up with a 45-0 shutout of the Chargers, in Los Angeles.  They now will play the other Los Angeles team -- also on the road -- as they look to improve their W/L record to 7-6 in a last-ditch attempt to get back into playoff contention.  Unfortunately, they're not likely to find success.  First, from a technical standpoint, .500 (or better) NFL clubs off back to back upset wins, are a horrible 33-66 ATS on the road in non-division games.  Even worse:  the Patriots are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS as an underdog off back to back upsets, while the Rams are 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.  Take Sean McVay's team minus the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Gardner Webb.  The Runnin' Bulldogs are playing their first game of the 2020 season tonight, and will travel to Bowling Green, KY to take on the Hilltoppers, who are 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS after dropping their 3rd straight game to the spread on Saturday (96-69, as a 42.5-point favorite).  The Bulldogs return just two starters from last season, so they'll be at a disadvantage tonight vs. a Hilltoppers squad which returned all five starters, and will be playing its sixth game of the season.  So, we'll play on Western Kentucky to get the $$$ tonight, as they're 28-1 SU and 20-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite following a game where they failed to cover by 6+ points.  Meanwhile, Gardner-Webb is a horrible 0-7 ATS as an underdog of more than 12 points in the regular season vs. a foe off an ATS loss.  Lay the points with the Hilltoppers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Southern Miss.  Last week, Willie Taggart's Owls were upset by Georgia Southern, 20-3, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  But off that loss, we'll step in and lay the points with Florida Atlantic tonight, as Taggart's teams in his coaching career (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State and Florida Atlantic) have gone 45-31 ATS in conference games, and have also cashed 75% in his career off an upset loss.  Even better:  Conference USA teams have gone 13-0 ATS as road favorites priced from -8.5 to -24 points off an upset defeat.  Finally, Southern Miss is a woeful 4-18 ATS at home vs. a foe off a point spread loss.  Take Florida Atlantic minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over San Diego.  The Toreros have had a late start to this 2020 campaign, as their early games -- in the Husky Classic -- were cancelled due to the coronavirus.  That will place San Diego at a disadvantage tonight, given this will be UCLA's 5th game of the season.  Even worse for Sam Scholl's troops:  they return just two starters, while UCLA returned all five starters.  The Bruins had a rough start to the season, as they lost, 73-58, at San Diego St. in their first game.  And then they needed triple overtime to get by Pepperdine in Game #2.  But they've gelled over their last two games -- 20+ point blowout wins over Seattle and California.  I look for UCLA to make it three BLOWOUTS in a row on this Wednesday, as Pac-12 teams off back to back SU/ATS wins have cashed 69% vs. West Coast Conference foes.  Lay the points with the Bruins.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights minus the points over Central Connecticut.  These two teams played yesterday here, and the Blue Devils upset the Knights, 94-87, as a 9-point road underdog.  That was the Northeast Conference opener for both teams, and we'll take the homestanding Knights in the rematch this afternoon.  Dating back to 1990, home favorites have covered 56% off an upset home loss, if they were playing an opponent off an upset road win.  And the Knights also fall into a 146-95 ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights minus the points over Syracuse.  To say that Rutgers has revenge would be an understatement.  After all, Syracuse has won the last 13 meetings (dating back to when both teams were Big East schools).  The good news for Rutgers -- at least for tonight's game -- is that teams have cashed 60.9% in non-conference games over the past 31 years if they had lost the last 7 games in the series, and were not getting 6+ points in the current game.  Take Rutgers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Baltimore.  The Ravens have dropped their last three games, while Dallas was upset its last time out, on Thanksgiving Day, by the Football Team.  The final score of that game was Washington 41 Dallas 16, so it was a most embarrassing loss for Dallas.  I look for it to rebound tonight, as teams off upset losses by 20+ points have gone 108-69-4 ATS on the road.  Meanwhile, NFL teams, like Baltimore, off 3+ losses, have covered just 18 of 54 regular season games over the last 34 years.  This past weekend, the season-long trend of the underdogs cashing continued, as the dogs barked loudly, and went 9-5.  For the entire season, they're 110-81 ATS. And they've also gone 20-11 ATS this season on the weekday games, and 37-20 ATS off a home loss.  Take Dallas + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Billikens minus the points over Central Arkansas.  St. Louis is 3-0 SU/ATS this season, and has covered the spread by 11.5 ppg.  And they won their previous game by 53 points!  Over the last 31 years, favorites of more than 7 points off 3 SU/ATS wins to start the season have cashed 60% of the time.  Additionally, the Billikens are 34-13 ATS at home off back to back point spread wins.  Take St. Louis.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Tennessee State.  This is the Ohio Valley Conference opener for both teams.  But a key difference is that it's also Tennessee State's season opener, while Belmont has already played four games.  And these extra games in hand have enabled teams to cover the spread 60% of the time over the last 31 years when playing an opponent which was playing its first game.  So, that bodes well for the Bruins tonight.  As does the fact that the Tigers have covered just four of its last 18 conference games.  Lay the points with Belmont.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers over the Buffalo Bills.  The Bills are 8-3 (.727), while the 49ers are 5-6 (.454), but the oddsmakers have made this game a near-PK'em.  It might look easy to take the team with the much better record, but be careful.  On Monday Night Football, when a team has owned a win percentage at least .200 better than its foe (at Game 12 forward), and it wasn't favored by more than 4 points, it's gone 1-13 SU/ATS.  That doesn't bode well for Buffalo on this Monday night.  And neither does the fact that the 49ers are an awesome 40-11 1 ATS on Monday Night Football when they weren't favored by more than 10 points, while Buffalo is 0-6-2 ATS on the Monday Night road when they were playing a non-division foe, and were not getting 7+ points!  Take the 49ers to blow out Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Eastern Washington.  We played on Oregon in its last game, and easily got the $$$ with an 83-70 win over Seton Hall.  That moved the 21st-ranked Ducks to 1-1 this season, and they'll play their home opener this evening against Big Sky Conference-member Eastern Washington.  The Eagles have been competitive this season, but have yet to crack into the win column.  They're 0-2 SU after two 3-point losses at Pac-12-member schools Washington St. and Arizona.  We'll go against the Eagles tonight, as teams off back to back losses have covered just 34.4% since 1990 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win that were playing their home opener.  That bodes well for Oregon.  As does the fact that Oregon is 30-12 ATS its last 42 games, as well as 58-36-1 ATS at home its last 95 games vs. non-conference foes, provided the Ducks won their previous game.  Lay the points with Dana Altman's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the New England Patriots.  Los Angeles has dropped its last five games against the spread.  But I love it to get into the win column on this Sunday, as teams off 5+ point spread defeats have gone 62-34-4 ATS since 1980 if they owned a losing record, and were playing a non-division opponent off a SU win.  Even better:  the Patriots are 0-6 ATS their last six, and 2-10 ATS their last 12 vs. foes on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Take the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  It always pains me to go against the Saints (who I selected in the preseason to win the Super Bowl (at 10-1 odds)).  But we've got to do it this afternoon, given their recent hot streak (8 straight wins, 4 straight covers), and absence of Drew Brees on the field.  And even though New Orleans dominated Atlanta in the 2nd half of the game two weeks ago -- to pull away for a 24-9 win -- we'll grab the points with the Falcons in the rematch.  In that game, which was at New Orleans, the Falcons were a 3-point road underdog.  Now, the line is the same, even though the Falcons are the home team.  There's point spread value on the Atlanta side.  Moreover, NFL teams off 8+ wins, and 4+ covers are 0-9 ATS their last nine, and 4-16 ATS their last 20!  That doesn't bode well for the Saints on Sunday.  And the Saints also fall into negative 75-140 and 34-69 ATS systems of mine.  Take the Falcons + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  I'm well aware that the Jets are a bad football team.  You don't start the season with 11 straight losses if you're not.  But I'm never averse to taking points with bad NFL teams.  However, what I'm loath to do is to lay a lot of points with bad teams.  Now, an argument can be made that the Raiders aren't a "bad" team.  After all, they have a winning record, at 6-5 on the season.  BUT they've been outscored by 27 points this season, which is not the mark of a good team.  And NFL teams with negative scoring margins are 154-235-6 ATS as favorites of 7+ points vs. opponents that didn't win their previous game.  That doesn't bode well for the Raiders this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that New York's 26-10 ATS at home, if they lost at home the previous game, including 11-3 ATS when getting more than 3 points.  Finally, since 1980, winless teams off a SU/ATS loss are 65-35 ATS (at Game 6 forward) if they were an underdog against a non-division foe.  Take the points with the Jets.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Miami (Fla).  Miami enters tonight's game on a 4-game win streak, after upsetting Virginia Tech, 25-24, in Blacksburg back on November 14.  Duke's also played just one game over the previous three weekends, but its game came last Saturday when it lost at Georgia Tech, 56-33, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  Overall, the Blue Devils are 2-7 this season, and have dropped their last two games (both SU and ATS).  We'll grab the double-digits with the Blue Devils, as ACC teams are 29-8 ATS off back to back losses when playing a conference foe at home, or on a neutral field, if that foe was off 4+ wins.  Even better:  the Hurricanes are a wallet-busting 11-32 ATS when not playing the previous week, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Take the points with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Colorado.  It's true that the Buffaloes are 3-0 SU/ATS, while Arizona is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out at UCLA last weekend.  But we'll step in and take the winless Wildcats as a big home underdog on Saturday evening.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, it's been profitable to play against teams that were undefeated in conference play (with a 2-0 or better record), if they were playing away from home against a team which was winless in conference play (with an 0-2 or worse record).  And if our road team also was off an ATS win, while its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our system has cashed 62% since 1980.  Arizona is a solid 27-15 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win, including 15-6 ATS at home.  Take the points with the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford. Both of these teams come into this game off narrow wins last weekend.  The Huskies defeated Utah, 24-21, while Stanford got by rival California, 24-23.  Last year, the Cardinal shocked the Huskies, 23-13, as 12.5-point home underdogs.  But you know what they say about "paybacks!"  And Washington is in prime position to avenge that loss on this Saturday, as they fall into a great 59-29 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were upset the previous season.  Stanford is a wallet-busting 0-6-2 ATS away from Palo Alto its last eight, and 0-4-1 ATS its last five when playing a foe with revenge.  Meanwhile, Washington is a fantastic 24-5 SU and 22-7 ATS when not getting 3 points vs. an opponent off a SU win, if the game was at home or on a neutral field (and 15-0 ATS if the Huskies didn't win their previous game by two touchdowns or more).  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers won their sixth straight game against the spread last Saturday, and look to move their season ATS record to 7-0 when they travel to Madison this afternoon.  Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they lost their 1st string quarterback last week when Michael Penix Jr. suffered an ACL injury.  Thus, sophomore QB Jack Tuttle, who was 5-for-5 (for 34 yards) in relief of Penix Jr. last week, will get the start under center.  But the greater problem for Indiana today will be the fact that its opponent -- Wisconsin -- is not only a very talented team, but will be in an ornery mood off its upset loss last Saturday at Northwestern.  The Badgers are 11-6 ATS in Big 10 Conference games when they were off a loss, while Indiana's a horrid 15-30 ATS on the Big 10 road when playing a foe off a loss, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +9 to +19 points!  Finally, for technical support, consider that underdogs off a SU win, that have a point spread record of 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 33% since 1980, including just 18% vs. opponents off a SU loss.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy.  Tulsa's won its last five games since opening up with a respectable 16-7 loss at a very good Oklahoma State team.  And Tulsa's also 5-1 ATS this season, including another cover in their last game -- a 30-24 victory over Tulane.  And it's been perfect on the road, as it's 3-0 ATS this season, and 28-11 ATS away from Tulsa since 2014.  This afternoon, Tulsa's been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Navy.  Now, it's true that the Midshipmen might be the best traveler in College Football.  Dating back to 1988, they're 127-70-4 ATS.  Unfortunately for its home fans (at least for those who wager on games), Navy's burned money at home, in Annapolis.  And they've been especially poor vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win, as they've covered just 9 of 41 since 1988, including 0-17-2 ATS when priced from -4 to +14 points.  Yikes!  Take Tulsa minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over South Alabama.  The Trojans are favored on the road vs. the Jaguars, notwithstanding the fact they've lost their last three games SU/ATS (including a 47-10 blowout at Appalachian St. last Saturday), while the Jaguars check in off a 38-31 upset win last week at Arkansas State.  And that's key, as NCAA road favorites have cashed 65.5% over the past 41 years off 3 SU losses, if they were playing a conference foe off a win!  But that's not the best part.  If our road favorite also failed to cover each of their 3 previous games, then our 65.5% ATS angle zooms to 90% ATS since 1980.  Throw in the fact that Troy is an awesome 10-0 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) after losing their previous game by more than 28 points, and we have all the ammunition we need to load up on the Trojans today.  Lay it.

At 12 Noon on Saturday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers.  The Nittany Lions got off the schneid last week when they won and covered the spread for the first time all season (after five failures), on the road in Ann Arbor.  For me, that was a big "buy signal" as, in college football, when teams open the season with 3+ ATS losses, they generally do well after their initial ATS cover when playing a team off a SU/ATS win, itself.  The Scarlet Knights also won on the road last week, as they pulled off a major upset with a 37-30 triumph in West Lafayette vs. the Purdue Boilermakers, as a 13-point underdog.  They're now 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Unfortunately for Rutgers, double-digit home dogs have covered just 33.9% after pulling off an upset as a double-digit road dog.  And home dogs have also just cashed 37.1% over the last 41 seasons when they've owned both a better win percentage and ATS win percentage than their opponent.  Penn State has won the last 13 games in this series, and 12 of the 13 have been by a margin larger than the current point spread!  Indeed, the last five victories were by 25, 39, 29, 13 and 21 points.  The Nittany Lions fall into terrific 98-27 and 171-84 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road favorites off wins.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Spartans last week vs. Northwestern, and they rewarded us with an outright win as a 13.5-point home underdog, 29-20.  But off that major upset, we'll go against the Green and White this Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, double-digit home dogs have covered just 36% vs. foes off a win, if our home dog won outright by 7+ points as a 7-point (or greater) home dog the previous week.  Even worse:  Big 10 teams have gone 4-24 SU and 7-20-1 ATS vs. Ohio State after an upset win the previous game, including 1-9-1 ATS when getting 18+ points.  Take the Buckeyes to massacre Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Seton Hall.  The Ducks were upset in their first game by Missouri, 83-75.  But I love Dana Altman's men to bounce back tonight, as they're 12-3 ATS their last 15 off an upset loss, including 3-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes.  And they're also 16-4 ATS their last 20 vs. non-conference opposition.  Finally, the Ducks fall into a 74.3% ATS bounce-back system of mine which plays on certain team after being upset as a favorite in their previous game.  Take the Ducks.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Kent State.  The Golden Flashes opened their season with a 90-41 blowout of Point Park.  They held the Pioneers to just 28% shooting, and outrebounded them 55-28.  But Kent now must now step up in class to face the defending (2019) national champion Cavaliers.  Virginia is 2-1 on the young season, as it sandwiched a loss to San Francisco in between victories over Towson and St. Francis.  The Cavaliers are 36-22 ATS in the regular season vs. non-conference foes, including 16-3 ATS when favored by 18+ points.  And Kent falls into a negative 82-155 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit underdogs off blowout wins.  Lay the points with Virginia.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Cal Baptist Lancers minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana.  These two teams actually met here just two days ago, and the Lions came away with an 81-80 upset win, as a 9-point road underdog.  If there was a silver lining for Rick Croy's men, it's that they actually led by 14 points in the 2nd half prior to collapsing.  And off that home upset loss, we'll lay the points with Cal Baptist, as they're 7-3 ATS off a loss (including 3-0 ATS off an upset loss), while the Lions are 1-5 ATS as an underdog vs. a foe off a SU loss.  And the Lancers also fall into a super 88% ATS revenge system of mine.  Lay the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over Niagara.  In its season opener, Syracuse defeated the Bryant Bulldogs, 85-84, which didn't enamor it to Las Vegas residents, as Syracuse was favored by 22.5 points in that game.  Still, a win is a win, and Syracuse will now welcome cross-state rival Niagara to the Carrier Dome.  The Purple Eagles haven't defeated the Orange in any of the last nine meetings, including a 71-57 loss last season.  And this will be Niagara's first game of the season.  We'll lay the points with Syracuse, as 14-point (or greater) favorites have covered 72% since 1990 after failing to cover the spread by more than 5 points, if they were now matched up against an opponent playing its first game of the season.  Even better:  Syracuse is a perfect 11-0 ATS as favorites of -4 (or more) points after failing to cover by 9+ in its previous game, while Niagara is 2-8 ATS its last 10 when getting 7+ points.  Take the Orange.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys minus the points over Incarnate Word.  The Cardinals rebounded off their season-opening home loss to Rice to defeat Our Lady of the Lake, 84-71.  They'll now play their first road game this season in Wyoming, which is 1-1 after getting upset by Texas Southern, 76-74, on Monday.  The Cowboys were favored in that game by 10.5 points.  But off that loss, we'll lay the double-digits with them tonight, as double-digit favorites have cashed 69% since 1990, if they were upset at home as a double-digit favorite in their previous game, and are now playing a non-conference foe off a double-digit home win.  Take the Cowboys to blow out Incarnate Word.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over Arkansas State.  The Tigers come home off back to back upset losses, and have been installed as double-digit favorites vs. an 0-2 Red Wolves team which also suffered an upset defeat its last time out.  We'll lay the points with Memphis at home, as home teams, off back to back upset defeats, are 180-130 ATS vs. losing teams.  And the Tigers are 36-16 ATS off 2+ losses, including 8-0-1 ATS its last nine if it was upset in its previous game.  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Houston Baptist.  SMU comes into this game off back to back 30+ wins at home, while the Huskies check in off back to back 23+ point losses on the road.  Since 1990, NCAA teams, off back to back home wins to start the season, that have a scoring margin of +30 (or more points), have covered 70% at home vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take SMU to blow out Houston Baptist.

At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Baltimore was favored in the season's first meeting this year, but was upset by the Steelers, 28-24.  We'll grab the points in this rematch as, in match-ups between two teams with .500 (or better) records, underdogs of more than 4 points have cashed 71.1% when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home earlier in the season.  And the Ravens are also 21-11 ATS when installed as an underdog of +3 (or more) points, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take the Ravens.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Hartford.  The Wildcats were favored by 9.5 points, but were upset, 81-73, by Virginia Tech in their last game.  But off that upset defeat, I love Jay Wright's men to come out extremely focused this afternoon, and expect them to blow out the Hawks.  Indeed, Villanova's an awesome 41-18-1 ATS off a game where they failed to cover the point spread by 4+ points, including a perfect 14-0 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss that have an ATS win percentage greater than .455.  And College Basketball teams have cashed 72.3% off an upset loss as a 9-point (or greater) favorite, if they were favored by 17+ points against an opponent off an ATS win.  Lay the points with the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  Last season, the Seahawks defeated Philly twice -- both by identical 17-9 scores -- in the regular season, and then, again, in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs.  But with double revenge, we'll step in and take the points with the home underdog tonight.  Indeed, the Eagles fall into a 28-12 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine which plays on certain revengers, at home, vs. .750 (or worse) foes.  And the Eagles also fall into a more general revenge system of mine which is 149-88 ATS since 1980 which plays on certain teams in non-division games with revenge against winning opponents.  Last week, the Seahawks had a huge divisional battle with Arizona, and emerged victorious by a 28-21 score.  But off that huge win, which moved the Seahawks to the lead in their division, I look for a letdown at Philadelphia tonight, as the Seahawks fall into a negative 6-25 ATS angle which fades certain teams off big division victories.  Take the Eagles + the generous spot.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Both of these teams have hopes of reaching the Super Bowl, though the Chiefs' are playing closer to that reality than than the Buccaneers.  Last week, Tampa lost for the 2nd time in its last three games to fall to 7-4 on the season.  The good news is that its four remaining games following this contest are all against sub-.500 ball clubs, so if the Bucs can win today, they'll stand an excellent chance to finish on a 5-game win streak, and tally 12 wins for the season.  First things first, of course, and they'll need to upset a Chiefs squad which has won its last five games.  But off its loss on Monday Night Football to the Rams, I love Tampa to rebound this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that, at Game 12 forward, winning teams have cashed 35 of 45 non-division games off a straight-up loss, if they were an underdog (or PK) at home, including 14-1 ATS if its opponent was playing back-to-back road games.  And the Buccaneers are also 10-4 ATS as a single-digit home dog, if they had a winning record, and their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins.  New York has yet to win a game this season.  But after dropping their first 10 games, we'll grab the points with the Flyboys as a divisional home underdog.  Last week, the Jets fought hard against the Chargers in 6-point defeat, but covered the 10-point spread.  And that was New York's 2nd straight ATS win.  Of course, it hasn't hurt New York that it finally has a full complement of wide receivers, with Perriman, Mims and Crowder all on the field of late.  And QB Sam Darnold will also be back for this game.  I look for New York to make it three-in-a-row this afternoon, as NFL teams that have lost 7+ games in a row have gone 27-10-2 ATS off a point spread win when they were matched up against a division opponent, and not favored by 3+ points (and 8-0 ATS off 10+ wins, as an underdog of +6 or more).  Likewise, winless teams with an 0-4 (or worse) record have cashed 70% over the last 35 seasons vs. winning division rivals, including a perfect 11-0 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +10.5 vs. foes off an ATS loss.  Additionally, New York falls into 240-146, 298-224 and 250-153 ATS systems of mine that play on certain losing teams against winning foes.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Cleveland.  The Jaguars won on Opening Day, but haven't won since, as they're currently riding a 9-game losing streak.  In an attempt to get back into the win column, coach Doug Marrone has tabbed veteran Mike Glennon to start at quarterback this afternoon.  The Jags have been installed as a 7-point home underdog against a Browns team that enters off two straight wins.  But those two wins both came at home; on the road, the Browns have only won 17 of 95 games (40-53 ATS), and they've cashed just 7 of 25 when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-6 ATS their last six.  Over the last 40 years, at Game 10 forward, underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 143-99 ATS if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over South Carolina.  The Bulldogs lost last year at home to these Gamecocks, even though the Bulldogs were favored in that game by 20.5 points.  But you know what they say about "paybacks."  And I fully expect Georgia to avenge last year's loss, as it has gone 17-0-2 ATS when playing with revenge and favored by less than 30 points.  Take Georgia to crush South Carolina.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over LSU.  Last season, the Tigers annihilated the Aggies, 50-7.  Of course, LSU was a better team last year, as it won the national championship.  This season is a much different story, and the Tigers have been installed as a double-digit road underdog on Saturday night.  We'll fade LSU off its 27-24 win at Arkansas last week, as defending national champs have gone 0-11 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points off a conference win.  Meanwhile SEC teams off a conference win are a poor 5-15 ATS when playing away from home against a revenge-minded Texas A&M squad.  Lay the points with the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Baylor.  We had a big play last week on Iowa State against Kansas State, and were rewarded with a 45-0 shutout win.  But we will reverse course this evening and take the Wildcats off that whitewash.  Indeed, Kansas State is 19-0 ATS vs. Big 12 Conference foes if Kansas State owned a .375 (or better) win percentage, lost its previous game by 20+ points, and was not an underdog of 7+ points in the current game.  That bodes well for the Wildcats in Waco this evening.  As does the fact that the Bears are 4-26 ATS off a conference loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points against an opponent off a double-digit loss. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Mississippi State.  The Rebels had last weekend off following back to back SU/ATS wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina.  And that bodes well for them in this game, as rested teams, off back to back wins, in which they scored 45+ points, have gone 37-14 ATS.  Last season, the Bulldogs upset the Rebels, 21-20, which was the second straight year this rivalry game was won by the Bulldogs.  But the revenge-minded team has gone 24-14 ATS in this series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home when playing with double-revenge.  Take Ole Miss minus the points this afternoon

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Auburn.  Alabama's 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season, and has covered its last four.  And none of those games has been close, as the Tide has won by 17, 31, 41 and 60 points.  Today, they'll host rival Auburn, which upset them last season, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  I love Alabama to avenge that defeat, as Nick Saban's teams have gone 26-12 ATS when they were playing with revenge from a loss in a game coached by Saban (and a perfect 10-0 ATS if their foe's Win Percentage was between .701 and .999).  Take Alabama.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Since they lost at Notre Dame three weeks ago, the Tigers have not played a game.  So, they'll have had plenty of time to rest up for this game.  We'll lay the points with the Tigers, as winning teams that won 10+ games the previous season have covered 57% of the time over the last 41 seasons off an upset loss, if they were matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Clemson is 14-7-1 ATS when it was playing with rest.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Northwestern.  The Wildcats shocked Wisconsin, 17-7, as a touchdown underdog last Saturday.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Pat Fitzgerald's men as a road favorite.  For technical support, consider that conference double-digit road favorites are a woeful 38.8% the past 41 years off a home upset win, if they're playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Michigan State.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers remain undefeated, at 8-0, after last week's big win over Appalachian State (which was 6-1 entering the contest).  And they have the 9-1 Liberty Flames on deck.  So, don't be surprised if the Chanticleers get caught looking past the 2-9 Bobcats.  But they really shouldn't as Texas State has covered its last four, including an upset win last weekend over Arkansas State.  This will be the Bobcats' final home game of the season.  And NCAA teams playing their last home game generally rise to the occasion when they play great opponents, as they've covered 60% over the last 41 seasons vs. .900 (or better) foes off an ATS win.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers over St. Francis (PA).  The Red Flash upset Pittsburgh, 80-70, as a 16-point road underdog on Thursday.  They return home this afternoon, and will welcome the UMBC Retrievers to DeGol Arena.  We'll play against St. Francis today, as non-ACC teams off double-digit upset wins over ACC Conference schools have had letdowns in the next game, when playing at home, or on a neutral court, and favored (or PK).  They've cashed just 14 of 50 since 1990.  Take Maryland Baltimore County.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over VMI.  The Keydets won, 90-63, at home to open their 2020 campaign.  But we'll fade them in Happy Valley this afternoon, as double-digit road underdogs have cashed just 39% off a 25-point home win to open a seasons, if they scored 85+ in that home victory.  And Big 10 teams have gone 47-17 ATS in their season openers at home when favored by 14+ points.  Take the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Illinois State Redbirds over the Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks.  UMass Lowell upset San Francisco, 76-68, to open its season.  But the River Hawks now fall into a negative 45-85 ATS "letdown" system of mine based on that upset win.  And the River Hawks are also a poor 7-16 ATS their last 23 off an ATS win.  Take Illinois State.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Drexel.  The Panthers stubbed their toe in their home opener when they lost to St. Francis (PA), 80-70, as a 16-point home favorite.  But off that defeat, we'll play on Pitt to rebound at home on this Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, NCAA teams off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 14+ points have cashed 17 of 18 at home, or on neutral courts, if their opponent wasn't off an upset loss, itself.  Additionally, Drexel is 0-8-1 ATS its last nine away from home when priced from +4 to +12 points.  Take the Panthers minus the points over the Dragons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma St Cowboys minus the points over Texas Tech.  Last week, the Cowboys were blown out, 41-13, in Norman by their rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners.  But Okie State is back home in Stillwater today, and we'll lay the points against Texas Tech.  Since 1980, .680 (or better) home teams have covered 60.4% vs. conference foes if our home team was blown out by 20+ points on the road in their last game, and is not favored by 14+ points.  Take the Cowboys.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Kent State.  The Bulls suffered a rare conference ATS loss last week when they only won by 25, as a 31.5-point favorite.  But their victory moved their mark to 3-0 SU, so this game against Kent State (also 3-0) will go a long way toward determining the MAC Title.  The Bulls have been as good at home for their friends in Las Vegas, as any team could be, as they're 17-2 ATS their last 19, including 13-0 ATS their last 13 vs. Mid-American Conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Broncos are 3-0 (and scoring 50.3 ppg), while the Huskies are 0-3 (and giving up 40 ppg), so it's no surprise that Western Michigan is favored by almost three touchdowns today.  Last season, the Huskies shocked the Broncos, 17-14, as a 10-point underdog, so the Broncos will be out for revenge today.  They should get it, as NCAA teams off 3+ wins, that average at least 50 ppg on offense, have covered 61% over the last 41 years as a favorite of 34 points or less (and 73% if their opponent gives up more than 30 ppg).  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies minus the points over Hartford.  UConn rolled in its first game, a 102-75 win over Central Connecticut St.  And they'll try to make it two-in-a-row vs. in-state rivals on this Friday.  This will be the first meeting between these schools since 2008.  We'll lay the points with UConn, as it's 14-7-1 ATS its last 22 home games.  Also, double-digit home favorites off a 25-point (or greater) win in their opener have cashed 63% vs. opponents playing their first game of the season.  Finally, Hartford falls into a negative 82-159 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in their season opener.  Lay the points with Connecticut.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights lost 36-33 last week to the Cincinnati Bearcats, but covered as a 4-point home underdog.  They're now favored by double-digits on the road in their final game of the regular season, and I expect a letdown this afternoon against a South Florida team playing its final home game of the season.  Indeed, teams playing their final regular season game of the season on the road, off a straight-up loss in their previous game, have been terrible as big favorites, cashing just 23 of 64 when laying more than 10 points against an opponent playing its final home game of the season.  And the Knights also fall into a negative 19-52 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU home losses.  Finally, the Bulls have covered 18 of 24 as an underdog of +9 (or more) points off an ATS defeat, including 5-0 ATS vs. .667 (or worse) opponents.  Take South Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Notre Dame.  The Heels are lighting up the scoreboard this season.  UNC has scored 156 points over the last three weeks, average 43.1 ppg for the season (against foes that give up 31.2), and get 7.7 yards per play (against foes that allow 6.0 ypp).  They've won all four home games this season (3-1 ATS), and are 10-4 ATS their last 14 at Kenan Memorial Stadium.  Even better:  when installed as a home dog of +5 or more points, North Carolina's a superb 15-4-1 ATS its last 20, including a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes when priced from +5 to +11. I won't fade those numbers.  Nor will I fade a home underdog off back to back wins which scored 100+ points over those two games.  Since 1980, such teams have covered 61.2% of the time.  Take North Carolina to roll at home.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Boise State.  The Cougars were without their star player -- Caleb Mills -- on Wednesday, yet didn't need him in an 89-45 blowout of Lamar.  The good news is that he'll be back on the court this afternoon.  We'll take the Cougars minus the points, as they fall into a 93-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit wins.  And Houston's also 31-13 ATS at home off a double-digit home win.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Iowa.  Last week, Nebraska turned in a horrid performance, as it lost 41-23, as a 17-point home favorite.  But off that debacle, we will step in and grab the double-digits with Scott Frost's men.  It's true that Iowa's off 3 SU/ATS wins, but teams off back to back wins have cashed just 39% since 1980 when matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss, if that foe failed to cover by 31+ points in its previous game.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Iowa) is favored between 10 and 15.5 points, then it has gone a wallet-busting 0-15 ATS.  Take Nebraska.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Iowa State.  The Longhorns had last week off to rest, and to prepare for this pivotal Big 12 Conference match-up.  Last year, the Cyclones snapped Texas' 3-game win streak in the series with a 23-21 win in Ames.  But the Longhorns have still won 13 of the past 15 meetings.  And Texas is a super 7-0 ATS its last seven when rested, and playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Texas.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies minus the points over South Dakota State.  Utah State lost its first game of this Crossover Classic in Sioux Falls, SD.  But we'll take the Aggies to bounce back on Sunday, as they've cashed 70% over the last 31 seasons when they were playing back to back games away from home, and were upset in the first game, and now playing an opponent also off a loss.  They're also 10-5-1 ATS as a favorite off an upset defeat.  Take the Aggies to blow out the Jackrabbits.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, Utah State handed New Mexico a 38-25 home defeat, so the Lobos will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  New Mexico was blown out by 28 points by Air Force in its last game.  But off that defeat, we'll take the Lobos to bounce back, as revenge-minded road favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have gone 77-43 ATS off a loss by more than 11 points.  Even better:  Utah State is 0-4 SU/ATS on the season, and has failed to cover by an average of 12.62 ppg.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Dallas.  Last week, we played on the Cowboys as our NFL Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings.  But we'll switch gears, and go against Dallas today.  The Cowboys and Redskins, er, Football Team, have had a heated rivalry for decades.  And it's been profitable to take the underdog in this series, as the dog has gone 49-24-1 ATS.  Even better:  if the favorite (here, Dallas) was coming off a straight-up win, then the underdog has gone 31-10-1 ATS, 75.6%.  Additionally, teams with horrible defenses (like Dallas (31.8 ppg)) that give up more than 30.25 ppg have covered just 24 of 75 home games off a straight-up win.  Take the Redskins + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Towson.  Both of these teams come into this afternoon's game off a loss yesterday at the Mohegan Sun Bubbleville Tournament.  Towson was blown out by 35 points by Virginia, while the Dons were surprised, 76-68, by the UMass-Lowell River Hawks.  San Francisco was favored by double-digits in that game.  And teams that were upset in their season opener as double-digit favorites have rebounded to cover 62.2% over the last 31 seasons.  Lay the points with San Francisco.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Nevada.  The Huskers are hosting this Golden Window Classic, and they got their 2020 campaign off to a great start last night with a 47-point blowout of McNeese State.  One of the things I love to do in early season college hoops is play on home teams when they host a tournament, when they're off a SU/ATS win in their home opener, and they're favored in Game 2 against an opponent which was also off a SU/ATS win the day before.  Our home teams have cashed 75% since 1990 in these games.  Lay the points with Nebraska.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Los Angeles.  Last week, the Rams had a HUGE divisional win against the Seahawks.  Seattle was atop the division at the time, with a 6-2 record.  But the Rams defeated Seattle, 23-16, as a 3.5-point home favorite.  Unfortunately for L.A., teams often suffer letdowns following a victory in division games between two strong teams, and especially when they go on the road to play a non-division foe.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, in the 2nd half of the season, .666 (or better) road underdogs of less than 5 points have covered just 18% in non-division games following a victory over a .666 (or better) division rival!  Even better, in his career, Tom Brady's teams have gone 10-1-1, 91% ATS as a single-digit favorite on Monday nights.  Lay the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Las Vegas.  The Raiders upset the defending Super Bowl champs, 40-32, earlier this season at Arrowhead Stadium.  But I love KC to avenge that defeat, as defending Super Bowl champs, with a winning record, have cashed 82% over the last 41 years in the regular season when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the year.  And NFL favorites of more than 3 points have gone 11-0 ATS in the regular season since 2010 when playing with revenge from an earlier loss in the season as a 7-point favorite.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Jets are 0-9 on the season, which will keep many bettors away from them.  But not us.  Indeed, one of the things I love to do is play on winless NFL teams, as road underdogs.  And if I can avoid going against a strong opponent, with a win percentage of .666 (or better), then that's much preferred.  Fortunately for us, the Jets aren't playing a great team on Sunday, as the Chargers have won just two games, themselves, this season.  And, dating back to 1985, winless teams, at Game 4 forward, are 92-48 ATS as road underdogs vs. sub-.666 opponents.  Take New York + the points.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Miami.  Broncos QB Drew Lock has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all we need to pull the trigger on the home underdog this afternoon.  Last week, Denver was blown out by the Raiders in Las Vegas, 37-12, while the Dolphins won (and covered) their 5th straight with a 29-21 victory against the Chargers.  We'll take the points with Denver, as home underdogs that gave up more than 31 points in their previous game (and failed to cover by 15+ points in that defeat) have rebounded to go 161-111 ATS vs. .363 (or better) opponents.  Even better:  the Broncos have always been a great team at home when they weren't laying a lot of points.  Indeed, dating back to 1981, Denver is a spectacular 52-24-4 ATS at home when not laying more than 2 points!  I won't fade those numbers.  Take the home underdog + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New Orleans.  This is a great spot for Atlanta, as it won't have to face Drew Brees this afternoon, after he sustained a rib fracture in his last game.  Thus, Jameis Winston will be under center for New Orleans, and it's a big drop-off from Brees to Winston.  Atlanta has played extremely well for its new head coach, Raheem Morris, including wins in both of their road games, at Minnesota (40-23) and at Carolina (25-17).  And the Falcons have now won 6 straight division road games (5-1 ATS), including a 26-9 victory here in New Orleans last season (as a 14-point underdog).  And Atlanta's 24-7 ATS as a road underdog vs. the Saints.  Take Atlanta + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England.  Last week, we played on both Houston and New England, and cashed each of them.  But, unlike New England, which won outright as a 7-point underdog vs. Baltimore, our win on Houston was most fortunate.  The Texans were a 4-point underdog, and down by 3 points with about a minute left in the game when Cleveland RB Nick Chubb scampered down the sideline for an apparent 60-yard TD run.  But instead of crossing the goal line for a 9-point Browns lead, Chubb chose to step out of bounds at the 1-yard line so the Texans could not get the ball back with 56 seconds left.  Of course it was technically a smart decision, even if Houston would have had much less than a 1% chance to score 10 points in 56 seconds.  But it was still unbelievably lucky, as not many in Chubb's shoes would have eschewed a 60-yard TD score.  Here, I don't think Houston will need such good fortune, as I believe they'll pull the upset over the Patriots as a home underdog.  One of the things I love to do when betting on the NFL is to go against road favorites in non-division games after pulling off upset wins as an underdog of +5.5 (or more) points.  These road favorites generally suffer letdowns, as they've covered just 23% over the last 41 seasons.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 8-0 and ranked among the Top 25, but have been installed as an underdog on Tobacco Road in this non-conference affair.  This will be the 3rd ACC opponent that Liberty has faced this season, but it will be the first one which currently has a winning record.  NC State is 5-3 on the season, and it has dominated non-conference foes in Raleigh, with 16 straight wins, and 29 of their last 30 (11-6 ATS).  Even better:  at Game 8 forward, undefeated, unrested underdogs, priced from +2 to +6 points, are 0-13 SU/ATS away from home.  Lay the points with the Wolfpack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh's men have (once again) been a major disappointment this season.  After a 49-24 blowout win at Minnesota to start the season, Michigan has lost to Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.  They'll try to right the ship tonight, and I believe they will, as NCAA teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have gone 67-47 ATS in conference games when favored by more than 5 points.  Last year, the Wolverines were also blown out by Wisconsin, 35-14, in the game immediately preceding the Rutgers match-up.  And Michigan bounced back off that loss to rout Rutgers, 52-0.  Same thing here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State.  Iowa State comes into this game with an extra week off following its 38-31 victory over Baylor two weeks ago.  Kansas State, meanwhile, is on a 2-game losing streak following its 20-18 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats won last year's meeting, in Manahattan.  But we'll take the Cyclones to avenge that defeat here, in Ames.  Iowa State is a super 13-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge, while rested Big 12 Conference home favorites have cashed 70 of 117 off a straight-up win.  Lay the points with the Cyclones.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  We played on the Ducks last week in Pullman, WA, and got the cash when they won, 43-29, as a 10-point favorite vs. Washington St.  On Saturday, they're back in Eugene, and will welcome the Bruins, who upset California, 34-10, as a 3.5-point home dog last Sunday.  Unfortunately for the Bruins, double-digit underdog have covered just 26% of conference road games over the last 41 seasons after a 20-point (or greater) upset win over a conference foe, if their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for UCLA in this match-up.  Nor does the fact that the Bruins, themselves, are 1-9 ATS on the Pac-12 road following an upset win at home.  Meanwhile, Oregon is a stellar 73-47-2 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 9-2 ATS vs. conference foes off an upset win.  Take the Ducks to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Rice.  Both of these teams have had several weeks off since their last games.  Rice hasn't played since October 31, when it blew out Southern Miss, 30-6, while North Texas hasn't taken the field since October 17, when it smashed Middle Tennessee, 52-35!  We'll lay the points with North Texas, as rested Conference USA home teams have gone 81-57 ATS vs. conference foes.  Additionally, road teams have gone 34-75 ATS off a 20-point win, when matched up against an opponent off a win by more than 7 points, if our road team was not favored by 3+ points.  Take North Texas minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois.  Both of the teams pulled off upsets last week:  Illinois went into Piscataway, and defeated Rutgers, 23-20, as a 5-point dog, while Nebraska upended Penn State, 30-23, here in Lincoln.  That was Illinois' first win of the season (against three losses), and they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row on this Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 41 seasons, losing teams have gone just 34.1% ATS as a road underdog, if they won outright as a conference road underdog their previous game, and were now matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Even better:  Nebraska's a perfect 9-0 ATS when priced as a favorite of -15 to -30 points against a .500 (or worse) opponent off an upset win, while Illinois is 0-9 ATS when getting more than 15 points off an upset win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.