At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Indiana.  The Heat were blown out here, at home, by Indiana, 137-110, on Friday.  We'll take the Heat in this rematch, as winning NBA teams, playing with revenge against an opponent which upset it in the previous game by 25+ points, have gone 67% ATS since 1990.  Take Miami.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Abilene Christian.  The Wildcats defeated Nicholls St., 79-45, to win the Southland Conference championship.  And that was Abilene's third straight win by more than 21 points.  But Southland teams are a horrid 0-16 SU and 4-11-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +25 points in the NCAA Tourney.  Meanwhile, Texas is 36-1 SU and 26-11 ATS when favored by more than 7 points against a non-conference foe off a win.  Finally, NCAA underdogs (or PK) off three straight wins by more than 15 points are a poor 31% ATS over the last 31 post-seasons.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Norfolk State.  We played on the Spartans on Thursday, and got the $$$ when it upset Appalachian State.  That was the Spartan's 7th straight win, overall.  But they will be overwhelmed tonight by a Gonzaga offense which ranks #1 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season.  Gonzaga's 19-6 ATS when laying more than 25 points, if it wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  And when matched up against #1-seeded teams, .695 (or worse) clubs are a soft 14-29 ATS, if they were off an upset NCAA Tourney win.  Take the Bulldogs minus the points.

At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over San Antonio.  The Bucks have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 11.  Tonight, they'll welcome San Antonio to Fiserv Forum, where the Bucks are 15-5 this season.  San Antonio had to play last night and, although it won, it is a poor 4-9 ATS on the road if it won the previous night.  The Spurs have also covered just 30.4% since 1990 when getting 2+ points at a rested Eastern Conference opponent, if the Spurs were playing without rest.  Take Milwaukee to blow out San Antone.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Sacramento.  The Kings won on the road last night, when they upset the Boston Bruins.  That was also the Kings' 2nd straight upset win.  We'll go against them tonight, as they're playing without rest, while Philly had the last two nights off.  And unrested teams off back to back upset road wins have covered just 32% since 1991 vs. foes that had the previous two nights off.  Take Philly.

At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over Golden State.  If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.  That will be the attitude of Memphis tonight, as it gets a second chance to defeat Golden State.  Last night, the Warriors won their second straight, when they upset Memphis by 13 points, even though Steph Curry was sidelined.  He will once again be in street clothes, but after losing last night, you can rest assured Memphis won't take the Warriors lightly.  The Warriors are a poor 1-10 ATS their last 11, and 8-24-1 ATS their last 33, off back-to-back wins.  Take Memphis minus the points.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Ohio.  The Bobcats won the Mid-American Conference tourney with an 84-69 upset of Buffalo, while Virginia was knocked out of the ACC Tournament by COVID-19.  Prior to losing its bout with the COVID-19 protocols, Virginia won, but failed to cover, in a 72-69 win against Syracuse.  The good news for the Cavaliers is that they'll get an opportunity to defend their 2019 championship.  And we'll lay the points with Virginia tonight, as it's 28-12 ATS off an ATS loss in its previous game.  Take Virginia.

At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over UConn.  Both of these teams lost in their respective tournaments.  Maryland fell to #1-seeded Michigan by 13 points, while UConn lost by 3 to Creighton.  The line on this game opened at UConn -2/Maryland +2, but has ticked higher -- and enough so that we will step in and take the points with the Terrapins.  It's true that Maryland was just 10-12 in Big 10 play this season.  But it played in (by far) the best conference in the country, so we will take its losing Big 10 record with a boulder of salt.  Based on my numbers, I believe Maryland is undervalued.  Also, one of the last things you want to do is give a Big 10 Conference team points in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.  Indeed, Big 10 teams are 17-6-1 ATS when getting +2 (or more) points in Round 1.  But that's not the best part.  If our Big 10 team was blown out by double-digits in its previous game, then our 17-6 record zooms to 9-0-1 ATS.  Finally, in match-ups between Big East and Big 10 Conference teams in the NCAA Tournament, underdogs of less than 6 points have gone 20-10 ATS.  Grab the points with Maryland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:25 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Grand Canyon.  The Hawkeyes were 21-8 SU and 15-13 ATS this season.  But it played a rugged schedule, which included games against #1-seeded Gonzaga, #1-seeded Michigan, #1-seeded Illinois (two games), and #2-seeded Ohio State (two games).  Against that 'murderer's row,' Iowa was 1-5 SU/ATS.  Against the rest of its schedule, the Hawkeyes were 20-3 SU and 14-8 ATS.  The good news for Iowa today is that nobody would mistake the Antelopes for a #1 or #2-seeded team.  Iowa has been installed as a double-digit favorite, which bodes well for it this evening, as Iowa was 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in games it was laying more than 10 points.  And, even better, it's 29-10-1 ATS when laying double-digits vs. non-conference foes, and 9-1 ATS off a loss when playing a foe off a win.  The Hawkeyes also fall into several of my favorite systems, including one with a 118-70 ATS record (which was 3-1 yesterday), and another with a 151-65 ATS record (which was 1-0 yesterday).  Lay the points with Iowa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Iona.  Our picks for this year's Final Four are Baylor, Gonzaga, West Virginia and this Crimson Tide team.  Of all the 68 teams that qualified for this NCAA Tournament, the Crimson Tide have the nation's best defense, per Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency numbers, as they give up just 86.9 points per 100 possessions.  Defensive efficiency has long been one of my favorite basketball metrics.  So, it's noteworthy that, of the other 13 teams that rank among the Top 15 in this category, that played yesterday, such defensive juggernauts went 5-1 ATS (provided they didn't play another team ranked in the Top 15).  This is a huge step-up in class for Iona, which has been installed as a double-digit underdog for just the 2nd time this season.  In its other game as a double-digit dog, it was blown out by 22 by Seton Hall.  Alabama is 8-3-1 ATS its last 12 when laying double digits, while Iona is 0-16 SU and 5-11 ATS when getting double-digits, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Even worse for Iona:  Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference champs have gone 2-13 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when priced from +7 to +21 points.  Finally, the Gaels fall into a negative Tourney system of mine which is 61-160 ATS since 1990.  Take the Crimson Tide minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays minus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara.  The Gauchos won the Big West tournament last week, and have earned a 12 seed in this NCAA Tourney.  But Big West teams have under-performed in the NCAA Tournament, including 4-13 ATS when installed as an underdog of more than four points.  Creighton was seeded fifth by the committee, and probably hoped to get a Top 4 seed.  But that likely went out the window last weekend.  To say the Bluejays had a bad game last Saturday would be a massive understatement.  Creighton was favored by eight points in the Big East title game vs. Georgetown, yet lost by 25 points, 73-48.  In that game, the normally reliable Bluejays' offense (77.0 ppg; 47.6% FG) converted just 28.8% of its shots.  Meanwhile, Georgetown canned 46.6%.  And that game was a complete reversal of the previous meeting between the two teams (won by Creighton, 63-48) where the Bluejays hit 44.1%, while Georgetown only made 27.6%.  I love Creighton to bounce back on Saturday afternoon, as teams off blowout losses by more than 17 points have covered 68% in the NCAA Tournament since 1991 if they were seeded among the Top 2 in their conference tourney.  And if they're matched up against a .700 (or better) foe in the 1st Round of the NCAA Tourney, then our angle zooms to 78% ATS over the last 30 years.  Creighton is an awesome 32-13 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 15-3 ATS its last 18 off a 15-point (or worse) defeat.  Lay the points with the Bluejays.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Texas Southern.  The Tigers earned this date with Michigan by defeating Mount St. Mary's in a 'play-in' game on Thursday.  That moved their record to 17-8 SU and 13-10 ATS.  Unfortunately, #16-seeded teams, with good W/L percentages above .630, have been awful in the tournament when getting 21+ points, as they've gone 7-23 ATS.  Michigan rolled to a 20-4 record this season.  And three of its four losses were to a revenge-minded opponent it defeated earlier in the year.  But the Tigers won't have the benefit of previous game experience or motivation from revenge this afternoon.  On the other hand, Michigan lost its previous game to the Ohio State Buckeyes, and the Wolves typically bounce back strong off losses, as they're 84-47-2 ATS off a loss, including 10-0-1 ATS their last 11, and 16-1-1 ATS their last 18 when laying 5+ points.  Lay the points with Juwan Howard's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over St. Bonaventure.  The Bonnies won the Atlantic 10 Tourney with a 74-65 victory over VCU, while LSU fell one point short in the SEC Championship game against Alabama.  Unfortunately for St. Bonaventure, it has not fared well against non-conference foes off a loss, and especially not when priced from +7 to -15 points, as it's covered just 18 of 56 (and 0-9 ATS if its foe was off an upset loss).  Take LSU minus the points.

At 12:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over NC Greensboro.  Florida State lost in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech, 80-75, as a 4.5-point favorite.  But off that upset loss, I love FSU to rebound this afternoon against the Spartans.  Indeed, ACC Conference favorites of 8+ points have gone 36-9 ATS against .714 (or better) opponents, if our ACC team was off an upset loss, and failed to cover the spread by 9+ points in its previous game.  Lay the points with the Seminoles.

At 12:15 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Georgetown.  The Hoyas surprised many with their run to the Big East title last weekend.  Among Georgetown's victims were Villanova and Creighton, who both made this NCAA Tournament.  But off its string of four straight upset wins, we will fade the Hoyas this afternoon, as teams off 4 straight upset wins have covered 0 of their last 7, and just four of their last 19 games.  And in the last 31 years of this NCAA Tournament, teams off upset wins in their previous four games have covered just 35.7%.  Take Colorado.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over Minnesota.  These two teams met here last night, and the Suns blew a 15-point, 3rd quarter lead to lose, 123-119.  We'll take Phoenix in the rematch, as NBA teams have gone 27-9 ATS when playing the 2nd of back-to-back games against a foe which upset it as a 9.5-point (or bigger) underdog, provided that foe's W/L percentage was .600 (or less).  Additionally, the Suns are 11-3 ATS off a loss, while the Timberwolves are 0-23 SU and 6-17 ATS as an unrested underdog off an upset win.  Take the Suns minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:55 pm, our selection is on the Villanova Wildcats minus the points over Winthrop.  The Wildcats will look to bounce back from their upset loss to Georgetown, as a 6-point favorite last week.  Here, they'll battle Winthrop, the Big South Conference champion.  Just two points separated the Eagles from an undefeated season, as their only loss was against NC-Asheville, on Jan. 29.  The Bulldogs won that game, 57-55, as a 12.5-point underdog.  Today, the 23-1 Eagles have been installed as a mid-sized underdog vs. Villanova.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with a team which hasn't lost by 3+ points all season, especially given that Winthrop was 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog (and 13-11 ATS, overall).  But be careful.  In fact, NCAA teams with a win percentage > .883 are a soft 35.7% ATS in the Tourney when installed as an underdog, including 0-6-1 ATS over the last three Tourneys.  Even worse:  Villanova is a spectacular 44-14-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread by 4+ points in its previous game, if it was matched up against a foe with an ATS win percentage greater than 45.5% (and 17-0-1 ATS if priced from -6.5 to -12 points).  Take the Wildcats to blow out Winthrop.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:50 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Morehead State.  So, a quick trivia question:  name the team which came the closest to defeating 26-0 Gonzaga this season.  Answer:  West Virginia.  Indeed, the Mountaineers are the ONLY team which Gonzaga didn't beat by 10+ points this season, as the score in the game was 87-82.  Likewise, the Mountaineers only lost to the 2nd best team, Baylor, by five points, 94-89.  So, this is a team which has the talent to win against ANY team in the country.  And WVU is one of my picks to make the Final Four (along with Gonzaga, Baylor and Alabama).  It's true that WVU was upset by Oklahoma State not once, but twice, to end its season.  But NCAA Tourney teams favored by 7+ points are 90% ATS the past 15 years off back to back losses.  We'll lay the points in this NCAA Tourney opener, as the Mountaineers are also 34-16-2 in the NCAA/NIT Tourneys, including 21-9 ATS in the NCAA.  Take WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:25 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over North Texas.  The Boilers had won and covered five straight before falling, 87-78, to Ohio State in the Big 10 Tourney.  But I love them to bounce back from that 9-point loss today, as they generally do just that under coach Matt Painter.  Indeed, dating back to his first season as head coach, Purdue is an awesome 60-23 ATS off a SU/ATS loss by 7+ points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season!  Take Purdue minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland State Vikings + the points over Houston.  We played on the Cougars last Sunday against Cincinnati, and it was over early, as Houston coasted to a 91-54 victory, as a 13.5-point favorite.  Unfortunately for the Cougars, teams generally have letdowns after such dominant wins in their Conference Championship game.  Indeed, favorites (or PK) have gone 8-22 ATS in the NCAA tourney after a SU/ATS win by 15+ points in their conference title game, including 0-6 ATS when priced from -15.5 to -21.5 points.  Take Cleveland State + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Hartford.  In the last NCAA Tournament, our selection in the preseason was Virginia (at 22-1 odds) to win the National Title (and it did).  This year, our preseason pick was on Baylor (at 12-1 odds).  So, it's probably not a surprise that we will play on the Bears minus the points over the Hawks to open this tournament.  Baylor has been dominant against non-conference foes, going 54-11 straight-up, and 29-15 ATS, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced as a big favorite of -19 to -43.5 points.  Even better:  #1-seeded teams are 23-7 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when laying 21+ points against foes with a won/loss percentage greater than .625.  Take Baylor.

At 1:45 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders made it all the way to the last NCAA Tournament championship game, but lost to Virginia in overtime.  This year's Texas Tech team won't be getting Elite Eight, much less the title game, as it's underwhelmed the entire season.  Indeed, if you toss out all its games against teams from the Southland Conference, SWAC, Sun Belt, etc., and only look at Texas Tech's record against foes from the larger conferences, its record was just 10-10 this season.  Even worse:  it was 6-14 ATS in those 20 games, including 1-10 ATS vs. foes that covered the spread at least 42% of the time (Utah State has covered 59.2% this season).  Finally, the clincher is that Texas Tech is an awful 63-107-2 ATS away from home off a loss, including 6-17 ATS when favored by 4 or more points.  Take the Aggies as the underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:45 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Colgate.  The Patriot League champion Raiders are seeded #14, and have drawn #3-seeded Arkansas from the SEC as their first round foe.  Colgate has been installed as a single-digit underdog.  But tourney teams seeded #13 (or worse) have gone just 60-91 ATS as single-digit underdogs (or PK) since 1991.  That doesn't bode well for the Raiders on Friday.  Nor does the fact that Arkansas is 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 when priced as a favorite of 14 or less points.  And Arkansas is also 10-0 ATS in non-conference games with single-digit point spreads, if Arkansas was off an upset loss.  Take the Razorbacks.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, on Thursday, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos over SMU.  The Broncos were bounced out of the Mountain West Conference tournament a week ago when it was upset by Nevada, 89-82, as a 4-point favorite.  And that was Boise's 3rd straight loss, overall.  But off that upset loss, I love Boise to bounce back against SMU.  Indeed, the Broncos are a powerful 48-25 ATS off a loss when matched up against a non-conference foe, including 8-1 ATS off an upset loss when not playing on an opponent's home floor.  Even worse for SMU:  this game is priced near Pk'em, and SMU has covered just 27 of 78 when priced from -1.5 to +9 points!  And, finally, NCAA teams off 3+ losses have covered 69.4% of post-season games when installed as a favorite against a non-conference foe also off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Boise State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:40 pm, in the NCAA Tournament "First Four" play-in round, our selection is on the Norfolk State Spartans + the points over Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers come into this game off an upset win over Georgia State in the Sun Belt championship game.  But Sun Belt teams have not fared well in the NCAA Tourney when they weren't getting more than 8 points, as they've covered just four of 16 games.  And the Mountaineers are also a wallet-busting 8-19-1 ATS away from home off an upset win.  Meanwhile, the Spartans have won their last six games, while going 5-0 ATS with one game off the board.  And they're 24-15 ATS as an underdog away from home.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always....Al McMordie.

At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Detroit Pistons.  Toronto comes into tonight's game off a 118-95 loss at Chicago on Monday.  The Raptors are also currently mired in a 5-game losing streak, including a 129-105 home loss to these Pistons just 14 days ago.  But that upset defeat sets up Toronto in a very good revenge situation tonight.  What we want to do is play on any .633 (or worse) NBA team which is favored, and playing with revenge from an upset loss by more than 18 points.  These revengers have cashed to the tune of 64.4% in the regular season, including 4-1-1 ATS already this season.  Indeed, we had one of these plays come up just two days ago when the Clippers avenged a 51-point defeat to the Mavericks.  Even better:  Toronto is 94-59 ATS off back to back losses, and 13-5 ATS its last 18 off a loss by more than 11 points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, on Wednesday, in the NIT Tournament, our selection is on the Richmond Spiders + the points over Toledo.  The Rockets went 15-4 this season in the MAC Conference, but were defeated by Ohio, 87-80, in the semi-finals.  That relegated the Rockets to the NIT Tournament, and they've been installed as a small favorite against the Atlantic 10's Spiders.  We'll fade Toledo tonight, as Mid-American conference teams have covered just one of 12 NIT Tourney games when not getting more than 5 points, including 0-8 ATS as a favorite.  That doesn't bode well for Toledo tonight.  Nor does the fact that it's an awful 0-8 itself in the post-season the past four years.  Or that it's covered just nine of 36 post-season games when priced from -3 to +12 points.  Take Richmond + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Dallas Mavericks.  When these two teams met in December, the Clippers were annihilated by the Mavs, 124-73.  We had one of our two strongest plays of the season-to-date on the Mavericks in that game, but we will go against Dallas tonight.  Our key factor, of course, is the magnitude of the loss by Los Angeles.  Indeed, teams that lose by 50+ points have covered the spread in the next regular season match-up 75% (12-4 ATS) of the time.  And, if we relax our margin of victory from 50 points to 30 points, and then add a couple of other factors:  our opponent is off a SU/ATS win, while our revenge-minded team failed to cover the spread in its previous game (against a different opponent) by 7+ points, then our team playing with 30-point revenge is 19-0 ATS since 1991 if it was also installed as the favorite.  Moreover, before losing by 51 to Dallas, the Clippers had actually dominated this series, with a 7-3 SU/ATS record over the previous 10 meetings.  I look for the Clippers to get the win tonight.  Lay the small number.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Cincinnati.  The Cougars were favored by 7 points yesterday against Memphis, and won that semi-final game, 76-74, to oust the #3-seeded Tigers from the AAC Tournament.  But Houston failed to cover the spread in that game.  However, that ATS loss sets up the Cougars in an NCAA Tournament system which has cashed 14 straight.  What we want to do is play on a team favored by more than 7 points in its Conference championship game, if it didn't cover the spread in its previous game.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over LSU.  These two SEC rivals met twice earlier this season.  And the Tigers were blown out in each game by Alabama.  LSU first lost at home by 30 points, 105-75.  And then it fell by 18 in the rematch, at Tuscaloosa, in February.  Those two defeats have continued LSU's general failures when it comes to playing 'Bama.  Dating back to 2001, LSU has covered just 14 of 41 games vs. the Crimson Tide.  We'll lay the points with Alabama today, as NCAA teams, priced from -3.5 to -13.5 points in their conference's championship game, have covered 69.7% since 1997, if they won both regular season meetings by double-digits.  And SEC revenge-minded teams (like LSU) have covered just 35.7% in the SEC Championship game, including 2-8 ATS if they lost the previous meeting by more than 10 points.  Lay the points with Alabama.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Phoenix Suns.  The Pacers led most of last night's game at the Los Angeles Lakers, but only scored 14 of the game's final 45 points, and lost, 105-100.  The Pacers will try to bounce back tonight in the Valley of the Sun.  And we'll grab the points with the road underdog.  After losing ATS last night, the Pacers' point spread losing streak has now been stretched to seven games.  However, NBA road underdogs, off a SU/ATS road loss, and 7+ ATS losses, overall, are a solid 57-29-2 ATS.  Grab the points with the Pacers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Timberwolves snapped their nine-game losing streak with a 30-point blowout win over the New Orleans Pelicans.  But Minnesota is still a god-awful team.  And I love going against bad teams off wins because -- one of the reasons they are bad -- is that they don't often put two good games together, back-to-back.  This year, for example, Minnesota is 2-5 ATS off a win.  And it's 12-21 ATS its last 33 off a straight-up win, including 2-11 ATS when priced from +4.5 to +14.5 points.  The Trail Blazers lost their first game after the All-Star Break, 127-121, to the Phoenix Suns.  But NBA teams that lose SU/ATS in their first game after the All-Star Break generally rebound in their next game, and have gone 92-68-3 ATS since 1990.  Finally, the Blazers are 10-1 ATS off a loss, if the game is competitively-priced with a point spread of 6 points or less.  I look for Portland to rout the Timberwolves on Saturday.  Lay the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Blue Jays minus the points over the Georgetown Hoyas.  The Hoyas are a surprising entrant in the Big East Conference Tourney championship game.  But they will be hard-pressed to defeat the Blue Jays this evening.  Even with their three Tourney victories thus far, the Hoyas still don't have a winning record on the season.  And underdogs without a winning record are 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS their last 11 Conference Tourney title games!  That doesn't bode well for the Hoyas today.  Nor does the fact that Georgetown's covered just four of the last 13 meetings vs. the Blue Jays.  Finally, Big East tourney underdogs of +7 (or more) points have lost their last 18 games, straight-up, and have covered just 35 of 91 games.  Take Creighton to blow Georgetown out.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Oklahoma State.  Yesterday, the Cowboys ousted Baylor (my preseason pick, at 12-1 odds, to win this year's National Championship) from the Big 12 Tourney.  But off that huge upset, we will go against the Cowboys today in the Big 12 Conference title game.  Indeed, NCAA teams that defeated their conference's #1 seed in the semi-final round, if that #1 seed's W/L percentage was .890 (or better), have generally suffered letdowns in the title game, and have only covered the spread 23% of the time since 2000.  Like Oklahoma State, the Texas Longhorns are also playing terrific basketball.  Shaka Smart's men have won and covered four straight after they upset Texas Tech yesterday.  And they also play this game with revenge from a loss to the Cowboys in the previous meeting this season.  Texas is 13-4 ATS its last 17 games when playing with revenge, and also a perfect 5-0 ATS its last five post-season games when playing with revenge.  Take Texas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Fairfield.  Both of these Metro Atlantic teams enter this championship game on a roll.  The Gaels have won five straight (4-0-1 ATS) after yesterday's 70-64 triumph against Niagara, as a six-point favorite.  And Fairfield is riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak after its upset win over St. Peter's last night.  Off that upset win, we will fade the Stags this afternoon, as they're a wallet-busting 6-28 ATS off an upset win, if their foe wasn't off an ATS loss, as well as 0-16 SU and 1-15 ATS off an upset win, when matched up against a .666 (or better) foe.  Meanwhile, Iona is 7-0-1 ATS its last eight post-season games, and 13-3-1 ATS its last 17 Metro Atlantic tourney games.  Lay the points with the Gaels.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Utah Jazz.  Right now, the Rockets are as bad as an NBA team can be.  They've lost 14 straight, and have covered just one of those 14 games.  But the oddsmakers have adjusted, so the Rockets are now getting 18.5 points.  And that's enough for me to pull the trigger on Houston tonight.  For technical support, consider that NBA teams on 7-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks are a solid 131-91-5 ATS on the road, including 26-12 ATS when getting more than 11 points.  That bodes well for the Rockets today.  As does the fact that NBA teams are just 12-28 ATS when laying more than 11 points in their first game after the All-Star Break.  Take Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Nevada.  The Wolf Pack upset the Boise State Broncos yesterday, 89-82, as a 4-point underdog.  And that was Nevada's 2nd straight win, overall.  Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, they're a wallet-busting 14-26 ATS in the post-season off back to back wins, including 0-9 ATS if they covered the spread by 10+ points in their previous game.  San Diego St. is 39-24 ATS as a favorite vs. foes off an upset win, including 24-9 ATS if the Aztecs were off an ATS loss.  Take San Diego State tonight minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Cal-Santa Barbara Gauchos minus the points over Cal Davis.  The Gauchos have won each of their last three games, but they've not covered the point spread in any of them.  That ATS losing streak should end tonight, as NCAA teams on 3-Game win streaks, that have gone 0-3 ATS in those games, have covered the spread 61.8% in the post-season vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Lay the points with the Gauchos.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Creighton Bluejays over Connecticut.  The Huskies won their fifth straight game, and stretched their ATS win streak to seven games yesterday when they blew out DePaul, 94-60, as a 12.5-point favorite.  Creighton also won a blowout, as it ousted Butler, 87-56, as a 10.5-point favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Huskies, especially since they also play this game with revenge from two losses to Creighton this season.  But double-revenging NCAA teams have covered just 36% since 1991 if they were on 5-game SU/ATS win streaks.  Take Creighton to bounce UConn from the Big East Tournament.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over North Carolina.  The Seminoles were upset by Notre Dame in their last regular season game.  And they also were upset by the Tar Heels when these two teams last met.  That combination of upset defeats should serve as motivation for Florida State tonight.  Indeed, NCAA teams off an upset loss to end the regular season, and playing with revenge from an upset loss, have covered 60% over the last 31 seasons vs. foes off a SU/ATS win.  Take Florida State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Rutgers.  The Illini have impressed over the past 15 days, as they've won (and covered) four straight, including upset wins over Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State.  I won't step in front of this freight train this evening, as they're playing with revenge from a loss in Piscataway earlier this season.  Rutgers was a 4.5-point home underdog in that game, and won, 91-88.  But revenge-minded teams, with a .769 (or better) win percentage, have cashed 60% in the conference tourneys against .625 (or worse) opponents, if our revenger was upset on the road in the previous meeting.  Even better:  if our team is off back to back SU/ATS wins, then our 60% system zooms to 74%.  Take Illinois minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs minus the points over Cincinnati.  This is a revenge game for the Mustangs, who lost, 76-69, as a 5.5-point home favorite to the Bearcats when these teams met in Dallas earlier this season.  The Mustangs come into this AAC Tournament off back to back road wins against Tulsa and East Carolina.  And that bodes well for them this afternoon, as AAC Conference teams have gone 62-34 ATS off a win, if they were favored by 3+ points against a conference foe which it lost to in the previous meeting.  Even better:  the Bearcats won their last regular season game, 82-69, vs. East Carolina.  Unfortunately for SMU, it is 1-13 its last 14, and 6-30 ATS its last 36 off a win.  Take SMU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Purdue.  The Buckeyes were ranked among the top four teams in the country going into their game vs. the Wolverines.  But Ohio State lost that game, and then proceeded to lose three more to fall to 18-8 on the season.  Yesterday, the Buckeyes finally won, but they didn't cover the point spread, which was their fifth straight ATS loss.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Boilermakers, who have won (and covered) five straight.  But NCAA teams (like Ohio State), off 5+ ATS losses, with a win percentage > .700, have covered 61% over the last 31 years vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  I expect the Buckeyes to get back into the win column "in Vegas" this afternoon, blow out Purdue, and make a serious run at the Big 10 Title.  We'll lay the small number.

At 11:30 AM, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Maryland.  The #3-ranked Wolverines were upset by their rival, Michigan State, in their final regular season game.  But that loss wasn't surprising, given that Michigan had just blown out the Spartans by 19 points three days before.  So, Michigan State was out for revenge in the rematch, and got it.  But off that upset loss, we'll play on U-M against Maryland, as single-digit favorites have covered 69% in the conference tourneys off an upset loss, if they owned a win percentage greater than .800.  Take Michigan to blow out Maryland.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the Montana Grizzlies + the points over Weber St., as the Grizzlies fall into one of my favorite systems, which is 162-83 ATS.  Yesterday, the Grizzlies won their opening tournament game, 69-64, as a 13.5-point favorite vs. Idaho.  Montana's now a mid-priced underdog vs. Weber State, and we'll grab the points with Travis DeCuire's men.  For technical support, consider that underdogs have cashed 58% in conference tourneys over the past 31 years if they won their previous conference tourney game by 5 points or less, while being favored by 10+ points in that game.  Additionally, Montana's 9-2 ATS vs. Weber St if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game.  And Weber is a poor 14-23-1 ATS its last 38 post-season games, including 7-15-1 ATS vs. conference foes off a win.  Grab the points with the Grizzlies.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the South Carolina Gamecocks + the points over Mississippi.  The Gamecocks enter tonight's game off back to back blowout losses against Arkansas and Kentucky, while Ole Miss won and covered its last two games vs. Kentucky and Vandy.  Off those results, we'll grab the points with the underdog, as SEC Conference underdogs off back to back losses have cashed 63% in the conference tourney since 1991 vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take South Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Sam Houston Bearkats minus the points over Lamar.  The Cardinals blew out Houston Baptist yesterday, 62-52.  But the Huskies were just 6-18 on the season.  Today, Lamar will have to step up in class against Sam Houston.  And the 19-7 Bearkats have already won twice vs. the Cardinals this season, by an average of 15.5 ppg.  Sam Houston does come into tonight's game off a loss, but it's 9-1 ATS this season vs. an opponent off a win.  And Southland Conference teams have cashed 67% in the tourney off a loss when matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Lay the points.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights have won their last four games, and they've covered their last five.  But their SU/ATS win streak has set them up in negative 4-23 and 18-54 ATS systems of mine.  Also, notwithstanding their win streak, the Knights still have a losing record on the season.  And losing teams are a soft 40% ATS in the Conference Tourneys if they were on a 4-game (or better) SU/ATS win streak.  Grab the points with East Carolina.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Minnesota.  Yesterday, we played on Minnesota vs. Northwestern, and got the $$$ when the Gophers snapped their 7-game SU/ATS losing streak and pulled off the mild upset in a 51-46 victory. Today, it will be Ohio State's turn to try to snap a losing streak (it's lost 4 in a row, SU/ATS).  Notwithstanding yesterday's win, the Gophers are a horrific 29-76 ATS away from home in Big 10 Conference play when priced from -1 to +11 points. That doesn't bode well for coach Pitino's men.  Nor does the fact that Big 10 Conference teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have cashed 63.1% since 1991 as a favorite vs. a conference foe off an upset win.  And the Buckeyes are 19-10 ATS vs. conference foes when Ohio State was favored, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11:30 am, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Oklahoma State.  These two teams had a dress rehearsal for this afternoon's game last week, in Morgantown, and the Cowboys won that game, 85-80.  We'll take WVU in the rematch, as Oklahoma State is a dreadful 16-37 ATS away from home vs. revenge-minded teams when the Cowboys weren't favored by 2.5 or more points.  Even better:  the Mountaineers have cashed 75% since 1990 in the post-season off an upset loss, when they weren't favored by double-digits.  And revenge-minded Big 12 teams have cashed 60% in the Conference Tourney when favored, if they were off a SU/ATS loss, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  Lay the points with WVU.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Northwestern.  These two teams met in Minneapolis less than two weeks ago, and the Wildcats upset the Gophers, 67-59, as 5-point road underdogs.  Minnesota had lost its three games prior to that meeting, and it proceeded to lose its next three following that game, so it has now lost seven straight games (both SU and ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Gophers here, especially given that they're banged-up.  But we'll take the Golden Gophers to snap their long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 64% in the post-season over the last 22+ years, if they were on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak, and were not getting more than nine points.  Likewise, Big 10 teams have gone 51-31 ATS in the conference tournament when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the season.  Take the Golden Gophers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Middle Tennessee State.  Both of these teams enter this Conference USA Tourney game on a string of losses:  the Mean Green have dropped three straight, while the Blue Raiders have lost their last six.  But that's where the similarity ends.  Middle Tennessee has won just five games this season, and has yet to win away from home, as it's 0-11 SU and 4-7 ATS this season away from Murfreesboro.  And, dating back to March 8, 2018, it's 5-42 SU and 15-31 ATS away from home.  Meanwhile, the Mean Green are 7-0 ATS when favored by 8+ points.  Finally, NCAA teams off back to back home defeats have cashed 63% in the post-season over the past 31 years.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Louisville.  The Blue Devils are on the tournament bubble, but got things off on the right foot yesterday with an 86-51 blowout win over Boston College.  Off that momentum-building win, we'll play on Duke today, as it's favored against a Louisville team which defeated it twice earlier this season.  And revenge-minded NCAA teams have cashed 62.2% since 1991 if they won their opening tournament game by 20+ points, and were not getting more than 2 points in their current game.  Lay the points with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs minus the points over Kansas State.  The Frogs enter this Big 12 Tourney game on a 3-game losing streak.  But I love it to snap this streak, as it will be facing a Kansas State team which upset it, 62-54, in Fort Worth last month.  And the Horned Frogs fall into an 81-30 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded favorites, as well as a 60-18 ATS system which plays on certain teams off back-to-back losses.  Over the last 31 years, in the Big 12 (or Big 8) Tournament, revenge-minded favorites off a SU loss have covered 61.1% vs. foes off a SU win.  Finally, the Horned Frogs are 20-8 ATS in the post-season off a loss, including 9-0 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over Northwestern.  These two teams met in Minneapolis less than two weeks ago, and the Wildcats upset the Gophers, 67-59, as 5-point road underdogs.  Minnesota had lost its three games prior to that meeting, and it proceeded to lose its next three following that game, so it has now lost seven straight games (both SU and ATS).  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the Gophers here, especially given that they're banged-up.  But we'll take the Golden Gophers to snap their long losing streak, as revenge-minded teams have cashed 64% in the post-season over the last 22+ years, if they were on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak, and were not getting more than nine points.  Likewise, Big 10 teams have gone 51-31 ATS in the conference tournament when playing with revenge from a home loss earlier in the season.  Take the Golden Gophers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Fairfield.  These two teams met at Draddy Gymnasium last week, and split the two-game series.  Manhattan took Game 1 on Thursday by a 69-59 score, while Fairfield leveled the series the next day, with an 18-point win, 85-67.  Off that blowout defeat, we'll take Manhattan in this Metro Atlantic tournament game, as teams playing with revenge from a 14-point (or worse) upset defeat have cashed 66%.  Additionally, the Jaspers are 41-26-2 ATS when playing with revenge, while Fairfield is a wallet-busting 0-12 ATS its last 12 off an upset win when not getting more than 10 points, and 21-42-2 ATS its last 65, overall, off an upset win.  Take Manhattan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over Quinnipiac.  When these teams met in February, the Bobcats upended Iona, 74-70, as a 7-point road underdog.  We'll lay the points with Iona in this rematch, as the Gaels are a solid 28-7 ATS away from home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  And Quinnipiac is 0-7 ATS when not getting 9+ points against a revenge-minded foe it defeated on the road in the previous meeting.  The Gaels also fall into 190-97 and 408-280 ATS systems of mine.  Lay the points with Iona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At Midnight, our selection is on the Brigham Young Cougars minus the points over Pepperdine.  When these two teams last met -- in Malibu -- the Waves upset the Cougars, 76-73, as 6.5-point home underdogs.  BYU actually led that game by double-digits early in the 2nd half, but the Waves mounted a comeback to secure the upset win.  What's noteworthy about that BYU loss is that it's the only defeat in conference play suffered by BYU this season against an opponent not ranked #1 in the country (Gonzaga).  I look for the Cougars to avenge that defeat, as the Cougars are 56-7 SU and 42-20-1 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, and playing with revenge.  Additionally, West Coast Conference teams are 74-47 ATS when favored by less than 12 points in the WCC tourney, including 27-10 ATS when playing with revenge.  Finally, BYU falls into 157-88 and 190-96 ATS revenge systems of mine.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Drexel Dragons minus the points over Charleston College.  The Dragons lost both meetings against Charleston this season.  But the Cougars had the scheduling advantage, as both games were played on their home court.  That won't be the case today, so we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Dragons, who fall into a 408-280 ATS revenge system of mine.  And, yes, it's true that Charleston has won four of its last five games.  But it was favored to win each of those five.  When installed as an underdog, it's 1-9 ATS its last 10.  And it's also 7-20-1 ATS its last 28 as an underdog of +7 or less points.  Meanwhile, Drexel is 8-0 ATS its last eight (and 13-2 ATS its last 15) when priced from -3.5 to -7.5 points.  Take the Dragons on Sunday night.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies minus the points over William & Mary.  The 7th-seeded Tribe blew out NC Wilmington yesterday, 73-60, as a 4.5-point underdog.  But Wilmington had not been playing very well -- it was on a 4-game SU/ATS slide entering yesterday's game.  This will be a much more difficult task for William & Mary, as Northeastern's on an 8-2 SU/ATS run in conference play.  And teams seeded #7 (or worse) in their conference tourneys are a soft 46-78 ATS as single-digit underdogs off an upset win as a dog of more than two points, if they were matched up against a foe off a SU loss.  With Northeastern, indeed, off a loss in its last regular season game, we'll take the Huskies to blow out William & Mary this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Michigan.  Juwan Howard's men bounced back off their 23-point loss to Illinois by routing their rival, Michigan State, on Thursday.  The Wolverines won that game, 69-50, as an 11.5-point road favorite.  But we'll step in today and take the points with the Spartans.  Tom Izzo's troops are a reliable 22-8 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 7-0 ATS if they lost the previous meeting by 15+ points.  And .810 (or better) Big 10 teams are a dreadful 23.3% ATS on the road as favorites of more than 5 points vs. a revenge-minded conference foe that it defeated by 13+ points in the season's first meeting.  Take Michigan State.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Baylor.  The Bears were my preseason pick to win the NCAA Title this season (at 12-1 odds), and they've not disappointed in the regular season, as they are in a very good position to be the #2 seed behind Gonzaga when the full field is released next Sunday.  Still, this is a very good situation to fade Scott Drew's men this afternoon, as the Red Raiders are 17-8, and playing with revenge from a 68-60 home loss to Baylor in January.  Even better:  Texas Tech is on a 3-game SU/ATS winning streak, while Baylor as dropped its last four games to the point spread.  And revenge-minded .680 (or better) road underdogs of +7 (or more) points, off momentum-building 3 SU/ATS wins, have cashed 61% vs. conference foes in the season's second meeting.  Grab the points with Texas Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes minus the points over Elon.  The Phoenix won (and covered) their fifth straight game yesterday when they wiped out Towson, 69-48, as a 3.5-point favorite.  They'll now face the #1-seed, James Madison.  And the Dukes already defeated them twice this season (78-57; 70-61).  That doesn't bode well for the 8-8 Phoenix, as .500 (or worse) NCAA teams off a SU/ATS win, playing with revenge from two losses earlier in the season, are a wallet-busting 36% ATS against foes off a SU/ATS loss.  And Colonial Athletic Association teams, off an upset loss to end the regular season, have rebounded to cover the spread in 71% of tourney games against foes off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Lay the points with the Dukes.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Loyola Chicago Ramblers minus the points over Drake.  The last time Loyola lost this season was against these Bulldogs, who defeated the Ramblers, 51-50, as 5.5-point home underdogs.  But over the last 26 seasons, NCAA Tourney teams have cashed 70.5% in Conference Title games if they were favored, and playing with revenge from a loss as a 5.5-point (or greater) favorite.  Take the Ramblers to blow out Drake.

At Midnight, our selection is on the Pepperdine Waves minus the points over Santa Clara.  The Broncos pulled off an upset yesterday when they upended Pacific, 81-76, as a 3-point underdog.  Unfortunately for Santa Clara tonight, West Coast Conference underdogs have covered just 17 of 52 off an upset win.  And Pepperdine falls into 103-60 and 66-24 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams against opponents off upset victories.  Lay the points with the Waves.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin Cajuns over South Alabama.  The Jaguars advanced into this quarterfinal matchup with a win over Louisiana Monroe last night.  But South Alabama was favored by 5 points in that game; here, they're involved in a game near PK'em.  And the Jaguars are a wallet busting 9-18 ATS in the post season when not favored by more than 1 point, including 0-7 ATS their last seven when facing an opponent off an ATS loss.  Finally, the higher seeded team has gone 37-12 ATS in the Sun Belt Tourney when not laying more than a point.  Take the Rajin Cajuns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Drake Bulldogs minus the points over Missouri State.  Drake's tournament game was cancelled yesterday due to Northern Iowa developing COVID within its ranks.  So, the Panthers forfeited the game, and Drake gets to move on to face Missouri State this afternoon.  The Bears won and covered, 66-55, as a 7-point favorite vs. Valpo last night.  But that win has triggered a negative 123-206 ATS system of mine which goes against certain underdogs off SU/ATS wins.  And Drake is also 43-19 ATS its last 62 as a favorite.  Lay the points.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Illinois.  We had a huge play on Illinois +8.5 over Michigan earlier this week, and were rewarded with a 23-point upset, blowout win.  That was Illinois' 3rd straight win and cover, while Ohio State has lost its last three games SU and ATS.  But we'll switch gears this afternoon, and go against Illinois off that huge victory.   Indeed, the Illini have covered just 7 of 27 off a win, against an opponent off a SU/ATS loss, if that foe was on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak, overall.  Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are 18-9 ATS their last 27 as a home favorite (or PK).  And, finally, NCAA teams have cashed 62% since 1991 when they were off 3+ losses, and playing their final home game of the season, and matched up against an opponent off a 17-point (or greater) win.  Take Ohio State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Vermont Catamounts minus the points over Hartford.  The Catamounts were upset in their last regular season game by Maryland-Baltimore County, 66-55, as a 3-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Hawks come into this game off an upset win over Albany, which was their 3rd straight win overall.  This is a horrible situation for Hartford, as road teams off back to back wins have covered just 34.7% since 1991 in Conference Tourneys against opponents off a loss.  Additionally, the Hawks have covered just 5 of 14 off back to back conference wins, while Vermont is 8-4 ATS off a loss.  Lay the points with the Catamounts.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights minus the points over American.  Army comes into this game on a 6-game ATS losing streak, but they did win their final regular season game, straight-up, against Boston U.  And that bodes well for them today, as home teams have cashed 82% in the post-season since 1991, if they were on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, but won their previous game, straight-up.  Take Army to blow out American.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Wichita State.  The Bulls were upset at home by Wichita when these two teams met in Miami in December.  We'll take South Florida to avenge that home loss, as they're 10-4 ATS their last 14 when playing with revenge from a home loss.  And they're 19-7 ATS their last 26 on the road.  Grab the points with the Bulls on Saturday.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds plus the points over Navy.  In this quarterfinals match-up in the Patriot League Tourney, we'll side with the road team this afternoon.  This is a rematch of a 2-game series played over last weekend.  The Greyhounds lost both of those games, but each game was competitive, as Navy won by 6 and 8 points.  I believe the 3rd time will be the charm this afternoon, as Loyola falls into a 161-83 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses.  Additionally, the Greyhounds are 39-19 ATS when playing with double-revenge, and 101-63 ATS on the road vs. conference foes.  Take Loyola Maryland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgetown Hoyas + the points over Connecticut.  These two teams met just 11 days ago in Georgetown, and the Hoyas lost, 70-57, as a 4.5-point home dog.  We'll take the revenge-minded Hoyas this afternoon, as they're 9-0 ATS their last nine when playing with revenge from a loss by 8+ points.  Take Georgetown.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over Loyola Marymount.  The Dons lost both meetings to the Lions, and they were favored in each of those two games.  But those two upset losses have set up San Francisco in a very good 163-102 ATS revenge system of mine.  Moreover, Loyola Marymount is a horrid 13-42 ATS at home, or on a neutral court, when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Dons minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over Jacksonville State.  The Gamecocks upset Murray State in the quarterfinals yesterday, while Belmont won (but failed to cover) vs. Edwardsville.  We'll fade the Gamecocks, as NCAA teams off upset wins in the quarterfinals have cashed just 33% in the semifinals when priced from +3.5 to +9, and matched up against an opponent off an ATS loss.  Even worse for Jacksonville State:  it lost both meeting to the Bruins this season.  And the Gamecocks are 1-12 ATS their last 13 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season.  Take Belmont.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte 49ers + the points over Marshall.  This is the first of two games these Conference USA rivals will play this weekend.  The 49ers have dropped each of their last six games.  And the last three have been by 19, 23 and 15 points.  But off those three blowout losses, we'll grab the double digits with Charlotte.  Over the last 25+ years, double-digit road underdogs have covered 63% of conference games, if they were off 3 SU/ATS losses by 15+ points, and their opponent was off a SU win.  Take Charlotte.

At 5 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Central Michigan.  The Huskies come into this game on a 7-game losing streak, while the Chippewas have dropped eight of their last 9.  When it comes to bad teams, I'll generally favor taking the points as opposed laying the points.  Here, the Chippewas are laying their most points in a Mid-American Conference game since last season.  And Central Michigan is just 3-12 in conference play this season.  But since 1994, NCAA teams with a .200 (or worse) conference win percentage (at conference game #16 forward), have cashed just 41.1% when laying 3+ points.  That doesn't bode well for Central Michigan this afternoon.  Nor does the fact that Northern Illinois is a solid 49-27 ATS on the road off a home loss.  Finally, the Huskies fall into 73-25, 79-21 and 48-10 ATS angles of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses.  Take the Huskies.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over Dayton.  The Rams will have the added benefit of playing this Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament game at home.  And they also received some welcome news when Vince Williams and Mikeal Brown-Jones were both upgraded to 'probable' for this game.  Though it's unclear whether Nah'Shon ("Bones") Hyland will play, he has practiced this week, so there's a good chance he'll be on the court, as well.  Regardless of whether Hyland suits up, or not, we'll lay the points with the home team this afternoon.  For technical support, consider that home teams are 9-0 ATS their last nine, and 39-19-1 ATS their last 59 in the conference tournament quarterfinal round against foes off a double-digit win.  Additionally, VCU is 6-2 SU/ATS its last eight vs. Dayton, including wins this season by 9 and 23 points.  Lay it.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Loyola Chicago Ramblers minus the points over Southern Illinois.  The Salukis bested Bradley, 73-63, yesterday to open Missouri Valley Tournament action.  And that was their fourth straight ATS win.  Unfortunately, they'll have to face a Loyola squad this afternoon which defeated it twice this season.  Even worse, revenge-minded underdogs of more than 10 points, off a SU/ATS win, and 2+ ATS wins overall, have covered just 99 of 244 in the Conference Tourneys.  Finally, the #1-seeded team has gone 29-0 SU and 20-7-2 ATS in the quarterfinal round of the Missouri Valley Tournament since 1991.  Lay the points with Loyola.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 11 am, our selection is on the St Bonaventure Bonnies minus the points over Duquesne.  The Dukes upset Richmond, 67-62, as a 3.5-point underdog yesterday.  But off that victory, we'll fade Keith Dambrot's men this morning, as Atlantic 10 Conference underdogs of +3 (or more) points are a horrid 21-43-1 ATS in the Tournament off an upset win, including 1-13 ATS vs. a foe which failed to cover its previous game by more than 6 points, and 0-7 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss.  With the Bonnies, indeed, off an upset loss vs. Dayton in their previous game, as a 5.5-point favorite, we'll lay the points with St. Bonaventure today.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At midnight, our selection is on the Portland Pilots + the points over Santa Clara.  Terry Porter was fired on February 5, after the Pilots had lost their 9th straight game, and was replaced on an interim basis by assistant Ben Johnson. But since Johnson's ascension, the Pilots have lost three more games. And they've now lost 12 in a row, and failed to cover the spread in 8 straight games! The last three defeats have been particularly ugly, as Portland lost by 21 to Pepperdine, and by 27 and 22 points to Pacific.  Notwithstanding those three losses, we'll grab the double-digits with the Pilots, as NCAA basketball teams off three blowout losses by more than 20 points where they failed to cover the spread in each game have gone 76-50 ATS.  Even better:  the Broncos are a poor 3-16 ATS off an ATS win in their previous game.  Take Portland + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Texas.  The Sooners lost back to back games in their matchup over the weekend against Oklahoma State.  And Oklahoma was favored in each of those games.  But off those two upset losses, we'll step in and lay the points with the homestanding Sooners.  This will be the Sooners' final home game of the season, and NCAA teams have cashed 64.1% over the last 31 years in their final home game, if they were off back to back upset losses, and their opponent was off an ATS win.  Moreover, Oklahoma is 27-10 ATS at home in Big 12 conference games off back to back conference losses.  Take Oklahoma.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Grambling Tigers minus the points over Alabama State.  The Tigers stubbed their toe on the road against then 1-20 Mississippi Valley State, when they lost, 67-63, as a 17.5-point favorite.  We'll look for Grambling to rebound tonight, as NCAA teams have cashed 64.1% since 1990 at home, or on neutral courts, off an upset loss away from home, if they were favored by 13+ points in that upset loss.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Murray State Racers minus the points over Jacksonville State.  These two teams met a week ago in Alabama, and the Gamecocks won that home game, 87-74, as a 3-point underdog.  After that defeat, the Racers also were upset in their final regular season game at Tennessee Tech.  Today's game will be played at a neutral site -- the Ford Center, in Indiana.  We'll take Murray State to avenge that earlier double-digit loss, as NCAA favorites have cashed 69% over the last 31 years in Conference Tourneys, if they were off a SU/ATS loss, and were playing with revenge from a double-digit defeat.  Take the Racers.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen minus the points over St. Joseph's.  The Hawks won and covered their fourth straight game yesterday when the defeated La Salle, as a small favorite.  But the 13th seeded-Hawks should be sent packing today by the #5-seeded Minutemen.  Indeed, in conference tournaments, NCAA underdogs off back to back SU/ATS wins are a horrid 10-38 ATS their last 48 vs. foes off a SU loss.  With UMass off a 21-point loss at Saint Louis on Monday, we'll lay the points with the Minutemen.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over New Orleans.  The Pelicans upset Utah, 129-124, on Monday, while Chicago lost at home, 118-112, to Denver that same night.  We played on the Pelicans against the Jazz, but will go against them tonight.  Notwithstanding its win, New Orleans is still just 15-19 this season, and I don't trust it as a favorite, as it's covered just 11 of its last 36 as a home favorite.  Moreover, over the last 31 years, NBA home favorites with a losing record have covered just 36% off an outright win as a home dog of +6.5 (or more) points, if they were now matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS home loss.  Take the Bulls + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm our selection is on the Belmont Bruins minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville.  The Bruins come into this game off back-to-back losses at Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State, and they were 18-0 in Ohio Valley Conference play before those two defeats.  We had a big play on Eastern Kentucky in that game, so it wasn't a surprise to us when the Colonels won outright as an 8-point underdog.  Then Belmont followed that game up with an overtime loss at Morehead State.  But it must be noted that 2-time All-OVC center Nick Muszynski (15.3 ppg; 5.5 rpg) didn't play in that game.  However, he's been upgraded to 'probable' tonight.  We'll lay the points with the Bruins, as NCAA favorites of more than 9 points have covered 80% in the post-season over the past 30 years if they were upset in their two previous games.  Even better:  the Bruins blew out the Cougars by 32 points at Edwardsville, and by 52 points at home.  Unfortunately for the Cougars, they're 0-8 ATS their last 8 when playing with revenge from a 29-point (or worse) defeat.  Lay the points with Belmont.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders + the points over Sam Houston State.  These two teams met earlier this year in Corpus Christi.  The Bearkats were 9.5-point favorites, but won by just five, 75-70.  That narrow defeat should give Corpus Christi confidence tonight, as they know they can go toe-to-toe with Sam Houston.  I look for the Islanders to cover this big number again tonight, as NCAA road underdogs of +15 (or more) points have cashed 58% over the last 28 seasons if they lost by 5 points or less at home in the season's first meeting.  Take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish minus the points over North Carolina State.  The Irish are favored this evening, and will look to snap a 3-game losing streak.  All three of those defeats, though, came on the road.  Tonight's game is in South Bend.  And NC State has covered just 29 of 69 ACC Conference road games vs. foes off back to back losses, including 11-19 ATS as a single-digit underdog.  That bodes well for Notre Dame today.  As does the fact that ACC Conference teams are 87-66 ATS as home favorites off 3+ losses.  Take the Fighting Irish on Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Oregon State.  The Beavers blew out Utah just 13 days ago, 74-56, so the Utes will have revenge on their mind tonight.  And that's generally a good thing for Utah, as it's a dominant 79-44 ATS at home when playing with revenge, including 37-14 ATS vs. foes off a point spread win.  With Oregon State, indeed, off an ATS win last Saturday at Stanford, we'll lay the points with Utah today.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Seton Hall Pirates + the points over Connecticut.  UConn enters this critical Big East game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Georgetown and Marquette.  Meanwhile, the Pirates lost at Georgetown and at Butler last week.  And they were favored by 4.5 and 8 points, respectively.  We'll take Seton Hall tonight to bounce back off those upset losses, as NCAA teams have covered 73.3% over the past 31 years off back to back road losses in which they were favored by more than 3 points, if they were matched up in their current game against an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Take the Pirates.

At 11 am, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers + the points over St. Joseph's.  The Hawks come into this game off 3 upset wins over Richmond, Dayton, and this La Salle team.  But even with those three late-season wins, the Hawks were still just 4-14 SU and 8-10 ATS.  The oddsmakers, though, have taken notice, and have installed St. Joseph's as the favorite this morning, even though it was a home underdog vs. the Explorers just 11 days ago.  We'll take the points with La Salle, as St. Joes was 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season.  And NCAA teams off 3 upset wins have covered just 33% in the conference tournaments since 1990, if they owned a losing SU and ATS record.  Take the points with the Explorers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets won and covered last night in Chicago, 118-112, as a 4.5-point road favorite.  But off that SU/ATS win, we'll fade Nikola Jokic & Co. tonight in Milwaukee, as Denver is a dreadful 31-62 ATS on the road off a point spread win.  Meanwhile, under coach Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks are 35-17 ATS at home when priced from -3 to -10.5 points.  Not surprisingly, the Bucks struggled somewhat (5-5 SU; 4-6 ATS) without Jrue Holiday over a 10-game stretch in February.  But Holiday returned to the court on Sunday, in Milwaukee's 105-100 win over the Clippers.  The quality of his play will no doubt improve as he gets his conditioning back, and Milwaukee should eventually round into the form it displayed the previous two seasons.  For the moment, I believe the Bucks are still a tad undervalued, and the point spread for tonight's game is very favorable.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Vanderbilt.  The Tigers will be looking to bounce back off two SU/ATS road losses last week, and will welcome Vanderbilt to Baton Rouge on Tuesday night.  The Commodores upset Ole Miss, 75-70, as a double-digit underdog on Saturday.  And that extended their ATS win streak to 6-0-3 ATS their last nine.  Still, Vanderbilt is not a very good basketball team, as it's just 7-13 this season.  And underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a losing record, off 5+ ATS wins, have covered just 31% over the past 31 seasons vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses.  Take LSU minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Michigan. 

(As a side note to subscription clients, I apologize for clicking on the wrong team earlier.  Hopefully, you read this write up, and realized which side I was on.) 

Regular season match-ups don't get much better than tonight's affair at Crisler Arena.  The #2-ranked Wolverines will put their seven-game win streak on the line against the #4-ranked Illini.  Both teams were impressive last week, as the Wolverines annihilated Iowa, 79-57, and upended Indiana, 73-57, while Illinois won and covered vs. Nebraska (86-70) and Wisconsin (74-69).  In this game, the Wolverines have been installed as a huge favorite against Illinois.  And, to put this point spread in perspective, consider that the Wolverines were favored by a similar amount just 12 days ago at home vs. Rutgers, which wouldn't rank among the nation's top 30 teams.  We cashed our ticket on Rutgers in that game, as it lost by just seven points.  And we'll grab the points with Illinois today for a couple of reasons.  First, Illinois has won and covered its last two games, so it's playing well.  Second, the Illini have played very well on the road this season, as they've covered the point spread on the road by an average of 5.1 ppg.  And when you can get a .733 (or better) team (at Game 10 forward) off back to back SU/ATS wins, that's getting 8+ points on the road, and covering its road games by at least 4.75 ppg, that's generally a very good recipe for success in the regular season.  Indeed, such teams have cashed 66% since 1995, including 34-10 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins.  Take Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Utah.  The Pelicans return home off back to back road losses to San Antonio and Milwaukee.  And they also play with revenge from two road losses to the Utah Jazz.  I look for New Orleans to issue a bit of payback to Utah tonight, as the Pelicans are 25-10 ATS at home when playing with revenge from two road losses earlier in the season, including 13-2 ATS as an underdog.  And the Pels are a fantastic 34-8-1 ATS as a home underdog priced from +5 to +9.5 points against an opponent off a win.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Miami.  The Cavaliers enter this evening's game on a rare (for them) three-game losing streak.  And Virginia's previous game was at home vs. NC State, which was the first time Virginia lost at home this season after 9 home wins.  The good news for Virginia is that it's back home today, so it will have a quick opportunity to erase the memory of that horrible home game.  And home teams, with a .900 (or better) home WL percentage, have gone 31-8 ATS off a home loss.  Even better:  this is Virginia's final home game of the season.  And NCAA teams playing their final home game have gone 11-1 ATS if they were off 3 straight upset loss, and now matched up against a losing team.  This will be a rout.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Western Kentucky.  These two teams met on Sunday here in Bowling Green, KY, and the Hilltoppers blew out the Panthers, 91-58.  We'll grab the points with Florida International this afternoon, as .360 (or better) teams have covered 75% on the road over the last 31 years when playing with revenge against an opponent that just defeated it by 32+ points.  Additionally, two games back, the Panthers were upset, 85-72, as a 4-point home favorite vs. Southern Miss.  But off those two bad games, where they failed to cover each by 17+ points, we'll look for a bounce back game this afternoon.  Indeed, NCAA underdogs have covered 66% since 1990 off back to back games where they failed to cover by 17+ points, if they were playing with revenge against an opponent which defeated it in the first meeting of the season.  Take Florida International.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Miami.  We played on the Heat on Friday, and easily got the $$$$ when they upset the league's best team (Utah), as a 6.5-point home underdog.  But NBA favorites of -3.5 points (or more) generally have letdowns after upsetting .801 (or better) teams as a home dog of +3.5 (or more) points, when matched up against a foe off a loss, as our favorites are 0-16-1 ATS their last 17.  With Atlanta, indeed, in off a loss to Oklahoma City, we'll take the Hawks + the points on Sunday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs + the points over Villanova.  The Bulldogs upset Seton Hall, 61-52, as an 8-point home underdog in their last game.  Now, they will set their sights on #8-ranked Villanova.  The Wildcats are once again having a great season, as they're 15-3, including 10-2 in Big East play.  But this will be a difficult spot for Villanova -- even though Butler's just 7-11 in Conference play -- as it's Butler's final home game of the season.  And Big East teams off a win in their previous game have cashed 63.3% in their final home game of the season, including 86% vs. foes off back to back wins.  Moreover, when playing their final home game of the season, the Bulldogs have won 22 of their last 25 straight-up (14-10 ATS).  Finally, it's worth noting that Butler plays this game with revenge from a 19-point loss to the Wildcats in December.  And NCAA home teams with losing conference records, but strong home courts, have gone 299-219-15 ATS when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) defeat earlier in the season, including 65-31-2 ATS if it was their final home game of the season!   Take Butler.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.