Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-11-23 | Astros v. Twins -119 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins 7:07 EST 10-Unit Best Bet on the Twins using the money line, currently priced at -120. This line is likely to trend a bit lower ahead of the first pitch in the aftermath of the monster win by the Astros last night and the public’s recency bias. So far, 76% of the tickets and only 55% of the money has been on the Astros and this sentiment is bullish on the Twins. Betting on home teams that have gone 10 straight games committing no more than a single error in any of them and facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game have gone 101-55 SU for 65% winning bets averaging a -100 bet and earning a highly profitable 24% ROI since 2019. If in the playoffs, these teams have gone a perfect 7-0 averaging a -105 wager and earning a 100% ROI. In the playoffs, Home teams that are facing a foe that hit four or more home runs in their previous game of the series have gone 11-2 averaging a -112 wager and earning a 64% ROI. Player Props: Pizza MONEY sizeAaron Nola Over 4.5 strikeouts -160 at DraftKings Trea Turner top hit a home run +390 1. Game-1 Wild Card | Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Game-2 Wild Card | Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 8. Game -1 NLDS | Spencer Strider OVER 1.5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM L -140 9. Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 W +145 10. Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 L -100 11. Game-2 NLDS | Zack Wheeler Over 5.5 strikeouts +105 at FanDuel – W +105 12. Max Fried Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -110 at BetMGM W +100 13. Alec Bohm to hit a double +320 at Caesars L -100 14. Trea Turner to hit a home run +550 at Bet365 L -100 Total: +875 |
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10-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies -118 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Citizens Bank Park, Atlanta, GA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line In this game, I think betting the 8-Units preflop makes sense given the probability – not the certainty – that the Phillies will get out to an early lead and win start to finish. Notice I said probability. Betting against elite offensive teams scoring an average of 5 or more RPG on the season in the playoff rounds that is facing a team, like the Phillies with an exceptional bullpen posting a season to date ERA of 3.75 or lower on the season has earned a 35-11 record for 75% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. |
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10-10-23 | Seattle Kraken +145 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Seattle Kraken vs Las Vegas Golden Knights 10:37 EST, October 10, 2023 8-Unit Best bet on the Kraken using the money line, currently priced at +145 Consider betting 6.5-Units pre flop on the Kraken and then look to get the remaining 1.5-units on the +1.5 puck with a vig of -110 or lower during the first period only. The Stanley Cup Champs for a many reasons shows up with a bit of a hangover from the previous season. There is all the celebration in front of the home fans and presentation of awards that the game itself ends up being a letdown for the defending Champions. Plus, the visiting team, in this case the Kraken, who are a Pacific Division rival, would love to take it out on them on their home ice. In the first home game of the season, the defending Champion has posted an 11-9 SU record, but by averaging a -165 money line wager ends up losing money for a -15% ROI. They are even worse 5-14 on the -1.5-puck line, averaging a +150 wager and a losing -27 %ROI. If our road underdog had a winning record in the previous season, the defending champs are 7-7 averaging a -155 wager and losing -19% ROI. The defending champ has lost their first game of the season in three of the last four games. Last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning lost 6-2 as -250 favorites to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Two years ago, the St. Louis Blues opened up the season with a 3-2 loss as -150 favorites to the Washington Capitals. Three seasons ago, the Washington Capitals opened up their season with a 7-0 win over the Boston Bruins priced as -115 favorites and four seasons ago, the Penguins opened up with a 5-4 loss priced as a -180 favorite to the St. Louis Blues. Seattle went 30-19 in road games averaging a +123 wager and earning a highly profitable 34% ROI last season and if they were a road dog of not more than +200 went 19-14 averaging a +145 wager and earning a 47% ROI. |
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10-10-23 | Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Liberty at Jacksonville State
7:30 EST, Tuesday
Burgess-Snow Field, Jacksonville, AL
8-Unit Best Bet on Liberty minus the points, currently -6
Let’s get right into the betting algorithm supporting this best bet opportunity produced from the predictive model. This one has earned a 33-33 record, but a highly profitable 41-21-4 ATS for 66.1% winning bets over the past 8 seasons going back to 2014. The requirements are to bet on teams in a matchup of soldi teams that each have won 80% or more of their games on the season and with the foe having covered the spread by 49 or more points over the past five games. Now, if our team is favored by 4.5 to 9.5 points, the record soars to a highly profitable 12-4-2 ATS for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Liberty is undefeated at 5-0 and has covered the spread in four of those five games losing to the spread last game against Sam Houston State. JAX State is 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS. They have covered their last five games by 62.5 points and by 67 points on the season. So, this is the achievement level in which we would expect JAX State to experience some form of regression and a market that has now over valued them. In fact, home dogs of 6 or more points that have covered the spread by 60 or more points over their last 6 games have gone just 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS for 30% wins. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Green Bay vs Las Vegas
8:15 PM EST
8-UNIT BEST BET on Green Bay Packers +2.5 or more points. Coming off a dismal NFL Sunday, but it is a reminder that no one is going to produce profits every week of any NFL season. Even in weeks that we have gone 4-1 or 5-0 ATS the results remind us that this is a grind, and that the success of any season is not dependent on one single week. I know all of you are quite used to my nagging (for very good reasons) and that discipline is the key. So, do not attempt to use this game to win back the losses over the weekend and at the same time, do not ever bet the profits made over the weekend on a MNF game. Betting on underdogs that are facing a team that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and has a defense that averages one or fewer turnovers per game on the season has earned an outstanding 33-32-1 SU record and a highly profitable 46-16-4 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our dog is playing in a non-conference game, they soar to a 12-6-1 record and 14-3 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Here is the clincher, if our dog is playing on the road has produced a 9-3-1 SU record and a near-perfect 11-1-1 ATS mark good for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, we learn that the Packers are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS when gaining 100 or more rushing yards and forcing two or more opponent turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. |
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10-09-23 | Phillies +142 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Truist Park, Atlanta, GA 8-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies using the money line As we did in the historic Game 1 win by the Phillies, consider betting 5.5 units on the money line and 2.5 units on the +1.5-run line. The expectations for this Game 2 of the NLDS is that the Braves are too good not to bounce back with a ‘must-win’ performance tonight. However, the Braves Achilles heel was revealed in game 1 as their production has dropped significantly when facing power hurlers averaging 97+ MPH. Zack Wheeler is one of them and he is pitching tremendous baseball right and he is a priced as a dog. Wheeler is 12-8 in 28 career starts against the Braves with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP. The Braves will start Max Fried, who has been battling nagging injuries and is 4-4 in 14 career starts against the Phillies with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.432 WHIP. For his career, Wheeler is 6-6 averaging a 170-underdog bet and earning a 32% ROI when priced as a +150 and greater underdog. Every start has been on the road. For this season, he has gone 14-6 in 33 starts with a 3.49 ERA and a 1.062 WHIP including 220 strikeouts and just 39 walks spanning 198 2/3 innings of work. In 17 road starts he has been even better with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.042 WHIP including 115 strikeouts and just 20 walks and allowed just 7 home runs spanning 102 2/3 innings of work. Of all starters with 450 or more batted ball events, Wheeler is tied with Corbin Burnes for the MLB best 3.4% barrels per plate appearance. This means that only three batters ever get credit with hitting the ball on the sweet spot or barrel of the bat. So, for every 27 batters Wheeler faces will square up the barrel of the bat on one of his deliveries. That is remarkable and that is the elixir that gives the Braves nightmares. Wheeler ranks third in MLB with an 11.9% hard-hit percentage of pitches thrown 95 or more MPH and third with an average exit velocity of just 86.9 MPH. Fried has not had enough batted ball events to be part of that list. He is an excellent starter and will throw fastball 45%, 12% slider, 17% change (used mostly to RH batters), and curve 26%. He does have one of the best curve balls in the game and largely because of the very high spin rate that averages 2800 MPH. At that high of a spin rate, makes it difficult for any batter to identify. However, that pitch starts a bit higher out of the release than his fastball and that will help Phillies batters. You can bet that he will throw that pitch a lot to the LH batters such as Schwarber and Harper tonight. Betting on road underdogs coming off a an upset win over a divisional rival and is now starting a pitcher that has allowed no more than a single earned run in each of his last two outings has earned a highly profitable 26-20 for 57%, but has averaged a +152 wager and earning a 41% ROI in games bet over the past 5 seasons. If our road warrior is priced as a +140 and higher dog, they soar to a remarkable 16-11 record averaging a 175 wager and earning a 61% ROI over the past five seasons.
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10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
4:25 EST
8-Unit best Bet on the Cowboys plus the points Let’s get right to the point of this play and reveal a betting algorithm that earned a highly profitable 29-8-1 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and has covered the spread by an average of The requirements are to bet on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have committed no more than a single turnover in each of their four previous games and facing a foe that has forced no more than a single turnover in each of their last two games. If our team is on the road the results improve to a remarkable 18-13 SU and 25-5-1 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams that are facing a host that is gaining 1.75 or more yards per pass than their opponents and coming off two consecutive games in which they gained 6.75 or more yards per pass has earned a 29-26 SU record and 35-17-3 ATS mar good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Cowboys are 93-13 SU and 85-19-2 ASTS when gaining at least 125 rushing yards and forcing 2 or more turnovers and 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS for 79% winners over the past five seasons. |
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10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos
4:05 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the NY Jets plus the points Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s and with the host coming off two straight road tilts and with the game occurring between weeks 5 and 8 have gone 38-17 SU and 36-16-3 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams priced between the 3’s, has covered the spread in just one of the previous three games, in a matchup of losing record teams, and with the host coming of two straight road games have gone 23-13 SU and 22-12-4 ATS for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. From the predictive model, the Broncos are just 13-25-1 SU and 5-33-1 ATS when allowing 24 or more points and allowing 5.5 or more YPPL. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Eagles vs Rams
4:05 PM EST, 10/8
The Eagles offense has not been in sync for an entire game, yet they have scored points in every quarter of their 4-0 start, except the second quarter in Week 1 against the Patriots. Teams that have scored in 15 or 16 of the quarters played spanning their last four games, priced as a road favorite, and facing a non-divisional foe have gone 16-16 SU, 9-22-1 ATS for 29%, and a solid 20-12 Over record for 63% winning bets. |
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10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -2 | Top | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Falcons -2.5 points The following betting algorithm has earned a 36-15 SU record (71%) and a 36-12-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has not covered the spread in three consecutive games and facing a foe that has covered the spread in three consecutive games and priced between the 3’s. Drilling further down into the database, if the total in these games was 45 or fewer points, these teams went 17-5 SU (77%), 16-4-2 ATS for 80% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. If our team scored first in the contest, they went on to a 10-0 SU and ATS record and covered the spread by an average of 9 PPG. |
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10-08-23 | Giants +13 v. Dolphins | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
NY Giants vs Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on the Giants plus the points I know I will hear many moans on this one as we are backing a team that finds ways to play poorly in critical situations and find ways to lose games. Remember, I am betting on situations and not the mascot, and not if the team looked great or horrid in their previous game. That also applies to the great recent play by the Dolphins, who are on the precipice of regression too. The following betting system underscores the regression, and that the Dolphins recent offensive prowess is unsustainable. The algorithm has gone 19-12 SU, but 5-24-2 ATS for 17%, and the Under has gone 21-9-1 for 70% winning bets. The requirements are to bet on underdogs in a non-divisional frey that are facing a team that has averaged 450 or more yards of total offense over their last three games and has averaged 6 or more YPPL on the season. If the matchup is a non-conference one, these dogs have chewed mercilessly on these false favorites to the tune of 9-4 SU record and a near-perfect 10-1-2 ATS mark since 2017. The clincher, if we even needed one, is the fact that if our dog is priced at 4 or more points, they have gone on to a 5-3 SU record and a perfect 7-0-1 ATS record. |
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10-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Miami-FL -20 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Georgia Tech vs No. 17 Miami (FLA) 8:00 PM EST Betting on home favorites of 11.5 or more points in games with a posted total between 42.5 and 59.5 points and hosting a foe that is fresh off a humiliating loss of 17 or more points as a home favorite of 10 or more points have earned an outstanding 47-4 SU record and a 37-13-1 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and 36-1 SU and 27-9-1 ATS since 2006. If this game is a matchup of conference foes, the favorite has gone 15-4-1 ATS for 79% winning bets. From the predictive model, we are expecting the Hurricanes to score 35 or more points and when they have in home games have earned a highly profitable 4-0 SU and ATS and covering the number by an average of 9 PPG under current head coach Mario Cristobal. |
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10-07-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
10-UNIT Best Bet on the Phillies as prescribed at the end of the report or on the +1.5 run line. A Pair of NL East Divisional rivals square off to play a best-of-five series to determine, who will advance to the NLCS starting Saturday at 6:00 PM EST at Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The weather at game time is expected to be 63 degrees with wind gusts up to 20 MPH out of the northwest throughout the game. The relative humidity will be extremely low at 25% so overall great weather for a baseball game. This season, the NL East division was dominated once again by the Braves, who went 104-58 averaging a -165 wager, but earning only a 1.5% ROI. The Phillies earned the top wild card berth by way of a 92-72 record averaging a -121 wager but producing a -1.7% ROI. The scant ROI’s for both teams is a reflection of how well the market priced these teams over a 162-game season. The Braves played exceptional ball at Truist Park sporting a 52-29 record averaging a -184 bet, but a money losing -1.5% ROI. The Phillies played consistent baseball on the road going 41-40 averaging a -105 wager, but a money-losing 5% ROI. The Weather Forecast for Game 1The wind will be blowing out to left field and may be a factor for balls hit very high. The stadium, is quite high behind home plate and extends down both the first and third base sides and shields the wind from the playing surface. So, the wind may not be a huge factor contributing to home runs being hit tonight. The setting sun will only be a problem for fans sitting on the third base side for about the first 45 minutes of the game. The Phillies Are the Team No Franchise Wants to FaceThe Phillies have a tremendous team chemistry that has shown all season with every player celebrating any other’s great play on the field. There are no egos on this team and is a tribute to skipper Rob Thomson and the leadership on and off the field by veterans in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and others. They have no fear whatsoever playing on the road against the Braves, who will have to be at their best if they want to hold home field and advance to play in the NLCS. The Phillies ace, Zack Wheeler, was dominant in Game 1 of their wild card sweep over the Miami Marlins. Then in Game 2, Aaron Nola was equally as dominating, but it created somewhat of an issue for the brain trust to decide the pitching rotation for this series knowing the Braves would have their best rotation in place starter with Spencer Strider. So, it was not surprising to see the Phillies elect to start left-hander Ranger Suarez for Game 1, who went just 4-6 in 22 starts with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.416 WHIP including 119 strikeouts and 48 walks over 125 innings of work. He is a craft left-handed pitcher with a wide array and variation of pitches he uses to keep batters guessing. He uses a heavy late-sinking fastball about 50% of the time then mixes in a cutter 15%, change 18%, and curve 17%. His change is exceptional and used mostly against right-handed batters, but he will use it occasionally to left-handed batters. His fastball will top out at 95 MPH and average 93 MPH. His curve will have big-time late breaking movement attributed to a spin rate around 2,100 RPM. All of his pitches average about 2,000 RPM and that consistency make it tough for batters to identify what pitch is coming their way. Spencer Strider had a tremendous season posting a 20-5 record in 32 starts including a league-high 281 strike outs spanning 186 2/3 innings of work. He made 11 starts in which he struck out 10 or more batters, but the Phillies, as a team, are one of the most disciplined in MLB. Three of his five losses occurred at Truist Park where he went 8-3 in 16 starts with a mediocre 4.35 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP including 153 strikeouts over 93 innings of work. The biggest fact that the Phillies must overcome is that he went 11-0 in 12 starts against divisional foes with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.064 WHIP including 102 strikeouts over 73 1/3 innings of work. The biggest advantage the Phillies have is their bullpen and the scheduling of this series, which includes three days off allowing for even greater rest and managerial options. Their bullpen is the best of the remaining teams in the playoffs and have posted a 1.33 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP including 36 strikeouts and just six walks over their seven games spanning 27 innings of work. The Situational Betting Algorithm for Game 1The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 68-27 record for 72% winning bets averaging a -108 wager and earning a 55% ROI in games played over the past 25 regular and playoff seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams who are facing a NL foe that is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 and following a game in which their bullpen allowed 5 or more runs. Now, the fact that the last game the Braves played was meaningless does diminish that parameter of the algorithm so let’s substitute another game parameter for it. In the playoffs, road dogs of 125 and higher and facing a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20 have gone a quite impressive 29-26 for 53%, but by averaging a +155 wager have earned a highly profitable 28% ROI. Last, teams that won their previous game by 5 or more runs to close out a series are 8-7 averaging a +140 wager and a 29.5% ROI and a remarkable 11-3 on the +1.5-run line earning and 35% ROI. My best bet for Game 1 is on the Phillies by placing a 6-Unit amount on the +1.5 run line and a 4-Unit amount using the money line as offered at DraftKings. Player Props for this GameSpencer Strider OVER 1,5 earned runs allowed -140 at BetMGM Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 Trea Turner to hit a home run +450 MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 5. Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet – L -100 6. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 - +450 7. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM W +100 Total: +965 |
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10-07-23 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -17.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Vanderbilt vs Florida
8-Unit best bet on the Florida Gators minus the points
4:00 EST SECN Betting on conference favorites between 13.5 and 19.5 points that are playing with revenge from a last season loss priced as a double-digit favorite and taking on a foe that is fresh off a loss priced as a dog have gone a highly profitable 31-4 SU and 25-10 ATS for 71.4% winning bets over the past 25 seasons of action and 6-2 ASTS over the past five seasons. Florida is 16-3-1 ATS in home games when facing a poor rushing team that is gaining an average of just 120 or fewer yards per game. Vanderbilt is 0-6 ATS this season and 13-35 ATS following a game in which they have allowed 325 or more passing yards. Road conference dogs are just 18-29-3 ATS for 38% if they have lost 6 or more consecutive games to the spread, lost 4 or more consecutive games SU and have two or fewer wins on the season.
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10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Washington State vs UCLA
3:00 PM EST
8-Unit Best Bet on UCLA minus the 3.5 points Again, consider betting 5.5 units preflop on UCLA and then look to get 1.5 more units on UCLA at Pick-em and then 1-Unit at +2.5. This game has a total of 60+ points and the scoring volatility is coming to be quite high so let it work in your favor. Unranked home favorites facing a conference foe that is ranked 10th to 25th in the current poll and with a game total between 52.5 and 65 points have gone 31-20 ATS for 61% winners. |
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10-07-23 | LSU -5.5 v. Missouri | Top | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
LSU vs Missouri
Noon PM EST, 10/7
Consider betting 6-units preflop on the Tigers and then look for Missouri to score the first TD of the game and get the remaining 2-units on the Tigers at pick-em or as close to pick-em as possible. Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 41-14 SU record and am32-21-2 ATS record for 61% winning bets over the past 25 seasons and is 8-3 ATS over the past seven seasons. The requirements are to bet on road favorites in a conference matchup that are ranked lower in the current AP poll. LSU is 23rd while undefeated Missouri is 21st. if our team is coming off a loss, they soar to 13-5-2 ATS for 72% winning bets and if they scored 27 or more points in that loss are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS LSU has two losses and Missouri has none, but LSU has played a much more difficult schedule. You may recall we had Ole Miss as a 10-UNIT MAX Bet winner over LSU last week and with the other loss taking place in Week 1 over highly ranked FSU. There have been reports of player descension in the locker room over head coach Kelly. I do not put much weight in the handicapping of this game, because at the end of the day, many of the players in that locker room have much bigger goals of playing in the NFL. |
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10-07-23 | Oklahoma v. Texas -4.5 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Oklahoma vs Texas
Noon EST, October 7, Week 6
8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the points Betting on teams that have won 80% or more of their games and facing a foe that has covered the spread by 49 or more points spanning their last five games and also has won 80% or more of their games on the season has produced a highly profitable 29-13-3 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Teams, like Texas, who they and their current foe in week 6 action has no more than one loss and with that foe having covered the spread by 42 or more points over their first five games has gone 9-4-1 ATS for 69% winning bets. Also, teams, like Texas, who are coming off a game in which they gained 300 or more rushing and 300 or more passing yards in their previous game have gone 96-29 (77%) and 71-52-2 ATS for 58% winning bets. If facing an undefeated conference foe has gone 6-1 SU and ATS for 86% winning bets. In the red river rivalry, Texas is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winners when scoring 31 or more points and the predictive model shows an 84% probability that Texas will score 31 or more points. Even if they score 28 or more points, Texas has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS for 85% winners. |
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10-07-23 | Western Michigan v. Mississippi State -21 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
Western Michigan vs Mississippi State
Noon EST, Saturday
8-Unit best bet on Mississippi State minus the points Betting on favorites between 16 and 24.5 points and with a total between 48 and 61.5 points that are coming off a terrible loss of 20 or more points to a conference foe priced as an underdog and with the game occurring during the regular season have gone 59-2 SU, 45-16 ATS for 74% winning bets over the past 22 seasons. The total of 57 points and State being favored by 20 points implies a State 38.5-18.5 point win. The predictive model shows an 82% probability that State will score at least 31 points and in past games in which they have done this, they have gone 40-6 SU and 36-9 ATS for 80% winning bets and if on the road facing a non-conference foe has produced a 17-1 SU record and a 13-5 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets. |
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10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State
7:30 PM EST, 10/6
plus 11.5 points.
Here is a situational betting algorithm that has produced a 33-45 SU record and a 47-25-6 ATS record for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is 10-1 ATS over the past three seasons. The requirements are to bet on a team that has a struggling defense that is allowing between 5.6 and 6.25 YPPL and is facing a team that has a solid offensive unit gaining at least 6.2 YPPL and has a defense that allowed 6.75 YPPL in each of their last two games. Over the past three seasons this algorithm has produced an 8-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 82% winning bets. |
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10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders 8:15 PM EST, 10/5 Prime Telecast Certainly not a ‘sexy matchup’, but the analytics clearly point to a contrarian bet on the Bears plus the 5.5 points. Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are allowing an average of 28 or more points per game on the season have gone 47-89 SU (65.6%), 88-46-3 ATS (65.7%) over the past 10 seasons of action. If our road warrior underdog is facing a host coming off a home loss, they soar to 6-10 SU, and 12-4 ATS for 75% winners over the past 10 seasons. Betting on road teams after allowing 6.75 or more YPPA in four consecutive games and now facing a foe that is coming off a game in which they allowed 8 or more YPPA has yielded a 35-31-1 SU record and 48-19 ATS for 72% winning bets since 1989. If in a non-divisional matchup, these dogs soar to 22-22-1 SU and 32-13 ATS for 71.1% winning bets over the past 34 seasons and has had just 3 seasons losing money. Here is a second betting algorithm that ash done quite well earning a 26-19 SU record and 29-14-2 ATS mark good for 67.4% winning bets over the past 34 seasons. The requirements are to bet on dogs of six or fewer points that are coming off a loss in which the game played Over the total and with that dog having more penalties then incomplete passes. |
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10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech +6 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Western Kentucky vs Louisiana Tech Joe Aillet Stadium, Ruston, LA 8:00 EST, October 5 8-Unit Best Bet on the LT Bulldogs plus the points It is Thursday and we have two games scheduled in the C-USA. The Bulldogs are coming off a 24-10 win featuring a punt return for a TD over UTEP. JAX State won lasty night as an 8-Unit Best bet over Middle Tennessee State and leads the conference with a 3-0 record. The Bulldogs are 2-0 and W. Kentucky is 1-0 in conference play, so barring a tie, one of these teams will join the conference unbeaten ranks. Betting on home underdogs ranging from 3.5 to 9.5 points that is coming off a game in which they committed no more than one turnover and facing a foe that has won the turnover battle in their past two games has earned a highly profitable 13-16 SU record and a 19-7-3 ATS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. Bulldogs head coach Sonny Cumbie is on a 6-0 ASTS run when playing on the road for the second consecutive week. From the predictive mode, we are expecting the bulldogs to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers and when they have met these measures has produced a 74-14 SU record and 64-22-2 ATS mark good for 74% winning bets and when priced as a home pup has produced a 3-6 SU mark and a near-perfect 8-1 ATS for 89% winning bets. |
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10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round Marlins vs Phillies MLB 10-UNIT BEST BET Titan on the Phillies using the money line Consider betting 7.5-Units on the money line pre-flop and then look to add the remaining 2.5 units if the Marlins score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of action. OR Place 7 units on the money line pre-flop because they are priced as a -150 money line favorite and then look for Miami to score first or possibly retake the lead over the first three innings and add the 3-units on the -1.5 run line, which would be at least +150 in this situation. Phillies have won many games coming from behind late in the games this season. In fact, they have won 18 games ranking second most being tied or down no more than 2 runs entering the 9th inning. Moreover, when the game was home at Citizens’ Bank Park, the Phillies won 9 games tied for most comeback wins with the Tampa Bay Rays. In home games this season, the Phillies posted the best record at 25-21 when the foe scored first in the game. Aaron Nola has had an up and down type of season, but he has pitched well down the stretch. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.60 ERA and a 1.038 WHIP with just one walk allowed and striking out 17 batters over 17 1/3 innings of work. He has allowed 32 home runs on the season, but just one over his last three starts and three over his last six starts. Earlier this year starting in late April he went 11 consecutive starts allowing at least one home run. So, don’t count on any starter’s season-to-date stats to have significant meaning in the playoffs rounds. Braxton Garrett is a lefty and will start the game for the Marlins. The Phillies line up scored almost a run less versus LH starters than RH starters on the season, but they also averaged a bit more than the average NL team when facing a LH starter. Garrett throws a fastball with solid sinking action about 40% of the time and then adds a slurve (sweeper) about 42% and then the remaining 18% is the change thrown almost exclusively to RH starters and a curve to LH batters. His spin rates are average or slightly below average for a MLB pitcher and the Phillies are a disciplined hitting team overall. The best eye on the team is their leadoff slugger Kyle Schwarber and he will look to get a maximum number of pitches thrown before he reaches base or records an out. Patience on the first pitch will be key IMO. Garrett has allowed a terrible 45% hard hit percentage. Nola just 38%. Garrett has recorded a 0.272 expected batting average as compared to Nola’s 0.241. Last, the Phillies bullpen is completely rested, and this is by far the biggest advantage they have tonight. For the season the relievers have posted a 3.53 ERA and a 1.265 WHIP spanning 545 innings of work including 592 strikeouts. Over the past 7 games, the unit has posted a 1.27 ERA and a 0.912 WHIP with 37 strikeouts over 28 1/3 innings of work. The Marlines pen has thrown 80 innings more than the Phillies posting a 4.39 ERA and a 1.352 WHIP. Player Props for this Game1. Aaron Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts +115 at PointsBet 2. JT Realmuto to hit a home run +450 3. Braxton Barrett Under 13.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM MLB Playoffs Total Player Prop Results1. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel – W +100 2. Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM – W +115 3. Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM – W +400 4. Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel – L -100 Total: +515 |
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10-04-23 | Jacksonville State +3.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee State Thursday, October 5 8-Unit best bet on Jacksonville State plus the points Betting on a team that is coming off a game that soared over the total by at least 21 points, is a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, in the first 7 weeks of the regular season, and has won 70% or more of their games has earned a solid 27-15-2 ATS record for 64% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. MTST head coach Stockstill is 1-12 ATS when facing a team with a turnover margin of 1 or better per game. From the predictive model, we are looking for JST to score 24 or more points and to commit the same or fewer turnovers. MTST is 8-21 and 5-24 ATS for 17% when allowing 24 or more points in home games and have the same or more turnovers. |
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10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -142 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies 8:00 PM EST, October 3, 2023 Betting on NL home teams using the money line that are averaging 1.30 or more home runs per game and have batted .250 or lower spanning their last 20 games has earned a 77-31 record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. Zack Wheeler will be on the hill tonight and he is 10-4 in 22 career starts against the Marlins with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.040 WHIP. He has allowed three or fewer ER in all but two of those 22 starts and allowed 6 ER in three starts spanning 18 innings. In 32 starts this season, Wheeler has posted a 13-6 record with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.073 WHIP including 212 strikeouts, just 39 BB over 192 inning of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 2.65 ERA and a 1.118 ERA with 16 K’s and 4 BB spanning 17 innings. Wheeler has a great fastball that he can vary between a 97 MPH with late-breaking arm side movement that rides onto the hands of a RH batter to a fastball with heavy sinking action that averages 95 to 98 MPH. That pair of fastballs account for 62% of his pitches and then throws a knee buckling slider that averages 90 MPH and a curve that averages 81 MPH. His spins rates are quite high and among the best in MLB with FB averaging 2500 RPM, slider 2675 RPM, and the curve an amazing 2750 RPM. The high spin rates make the ball ‘tight’ and nearly impossible for the batters to identify which pitch he has thrown. Jesus Lazardo takes the ball for game 1 and has average to below average spin rates and is facing one of the best and hardest hitting lineups in the NL. The Phillies have 8 batters averaging 42% and higher hard hit ball percentages and 7 of them are starters led by Kyle Schwarber, who is averaging 49% hard hit with a 92.4 average exit velocity. Here are a few Player Props and I do not recommend more than 1-unit on these throughout the playoffs. Bet Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts -108 at FanDuel Bet Under Luzardo 14.5 outs record +115 at BetMGM Over Trea Turner to hit a double +400 at BetMGM Bet Bryce Harper to hit a HR +520 at FanDuel |
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10-03-23 | Blue Jays +108 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
Tuesday, October 3, 2023 MLB Playoffs | Wild Card Round Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins 8-Unit best bet on the on the Blue Jays using the money line Game 1 of the MLB Wild Card playoffs are set and this is game 1 between the Blue Jays and the Twins set to take place at Target Field in Minneapolis, MN with the first pitch scheduled for 4:30 PM EST. This game is televised on ESPN. In the Wild Card round, betting on teams that are priced between a -130 favorite and +130 underdog that won more games than their foe during the regular season has earned an outstanding 27-7 for 79% averaging a -102 money line and earning a highly profitable 60% ROI over the last 20 seasons when there were three game series. Kevin Gausman is penciled in for the Blue Jays and is coming off another solid season going 12-9 in 31 starts with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP including 237 strikeouts spanning 185 innings of work. Over his last three starts he posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.302 WHIP including 20 strikeouts and 17 2/3 innings of work. He made 15 starts and went 5-3 with a sparkling 2.58 ERA and a 1.136 WHIP including 116 strikeouts over 90 2/3 innings of work. Pablo Lopez will on the hill for the Twins and he has posted weak number recently with a 6.46 ERA and a 1.305 WHIP including 21 strikeouts over his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings of work. Currently 72% of the tickets, but just 49% of the money is being bet on the Twins and this reflects larger bets being made on the Blue Jays. Twins are 7-17 on the money line in games with a posted total of 7 or 7.5 runs this season. |
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10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Seattle Seahawks vs NY Giants MetLife Stadium 8-Unit best bet on the Giants getting the 2-points The Giants remained on the west coast after their historic come from behind win over the Arizona Cardinals to prepare for one of the best teams in the NFL, the 49ers, and on a short week. They lost that game, but were quite competitive during the first half, and are not fully rested for this game tonight at home. Betting on teams that has not covered the spread in their last three games and taking on a foe that has covered their last three games and with the price between a 3-point favorite and underdog has produced a 30-13 SU record and a 30-10-3 ATS mark for 75% winning bets over the past 8 years (since start of the 2015 season). Betting on Underdogs that are struggling to gain yards in the passing game averaging 5.5 or fewer YPPA, is coming of a game where their defense allowed 8 or more YPPA, and now facing a foe that struggles to stop the pass allowing an average of 7.25 or more YPPA has produced a 42-19 ATS record for 69% winning bets. If our team is a home dog, they have soared to a money-making 18-7 ASTS for 72% winning bets. The Giants QB, Daniel Jones is an inconsistent one and many others would say he is downright terrible, but this is a matchup ladies and gentlemen that he has the potential to shine brightly. This is a must-win game for the Giants to say within distance of the undefeated Eagles and one-loss Cowboys in the NFC East division. They lost their first two prime time games by a combined score of 70-12 and failed to cover the spread by a combined 44 points. So, they are rested, fully prepared, and I do expect them to put out their best effort of the season. The predictive model tells us that the Giants when playing at home and scoring 23 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers then the foe has produced a 77-11 SU record (88%) and a 68-19-1 ATS mark good for 78% winning bets. |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Dolphins vs Bills 8-Unit Best Bet on the Under 53.5 points The total for this game is priced at 53.5 points. So, scoring volatility is expected to be high. My suggested strategy is to bet 5.5 units preflop and then if the game starts out fast on the scoreboard add 1.5 units at 56.5 points and then 1 unit at 58.5 points. Betting on teams with a total of 45 or more points and facing a foe that scored double digits in each quarter of their previous game has produced a 8-7 SU record, 10-5 ATS and 11-4 UNDER. The Dolphins scored 14 points in each of the first and third quarters and 21 points in the second and fourth quarters in last week’s historic 70-point offensive explosion. Betting on a road team facing a divisional foe and having seen the total play over by at least 24 points over their last three games has produced a 43-17-1 Under record for 72% winning bets over the past 25 seasons. If our road team saw their last three games play Over by 27 or more points has produced a 39-14-1 Under record for 74% winners spanning the last 25 seasons. Last, if that last three game total played over by 38 or more points, the Under has gone a highly profitable 23-5-1 for 83% winners spanning the past 25 seasons. |
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10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Steelers vs Texans 8-Unit Best Bet on the Texans plus the points Betting on underdogs of not more than 7.5 points that are facing a foe that won their last two games in the previous season, but missed the playoffs, and with the current game taking place in the first four weeks of the current season has produced a 13-5 ATS mark for 72% winning bets since 2018. |
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10-01-23 | Ravens +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Ravens vs Browns 8-Unit Best Bet on the Ravens plus the 2.5 points 5-Unit Best Bet on the Over 38.5 points For the Over bet I like making 2.5 units on the Over preflop and then given that these are divisional foes from a gritty and defensive-minded AFC North, look for a low scoring first quarter and to add 2.5 units to the Over at a price of 34.5 or fewer points.
Betting on a team priced between the 4’s (4-point favorite to a 4-point underdog) that is coming off a loss (Ravens) by three or fewer points and facing a foe that allowed 6 or fewer points to their previous foe has earned a 36-18 ATS record for 67% winning bets and also produced a solid 37-14-3 OVER record for 73% winning bets |
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10-01-23 | Vikings -5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Minnesota vs Carolina 8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings minus the 4.5 points Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the Vikings and then during the first half look for -1.5 or bet the money line when the price is at -1.5 points. Betting on favorites including pick-em that are scoring an average of 23.5 to 27 PPG, is coming off two straight games in which they and their foes combined for 50 or more points in each game and facing a foe that is allowing between 23.5 and 27 PPG has produced a 61-32-3 ATS record for 65.6% winning bets since 2010. |
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10-01-23 | Commanders +9 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
NFL Week 4 Commanders vs Eagles 8-Unit Best Bet on the Commanders plus the 9 points. Betting on road dogs between 3.5 and 10 points that are scoring at least 28 PPG have gone 80-37-4 ATS for 68.4% winning bets since 2015. If a divisional matchup, the record soars to 34-10-1 ATS for 77% winning bets and if a divisional matchup facing an undefeated foe, the record is 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winning bets since 2015. |
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10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Wembley Stadium, London 8-Unit best bet on the Jaguars -3 -115 and is the worst line I see right now. I do not believe the lines makers are going to move off of 3-points and instead raise the vig to -120 if necessary. If your book(s) have -3.5, then consider betting 5-unit preflop and then look to get 3 more units at pick-em or better during the first half of action (preferably the first quarter) Intuitively, I am just not seeing why the Jaguars are not priced closer to 6 points and the reason is not due to their dreadful loss to the Texans last week at home. We were on the Texans and never saw a blowout win by the Texans, but I thought they had a shot at it. I am not sold on Ritter being a solid NFL quarterback and the offense ranks 26th in the league and a worse 29th in passing offense. The Jaguar’s defense is an average one by NFL standards and certainly much better than the Falcons offense. Plus, this is the Jaguars second home field and a serious advantage given the travel itinerary and logistics involved in getting to London and then situated comfortably. The Jaguars have played in London five times since 2015 and are 4-1 SUATS. The Jaguars are 22-12-2 ATS for 65% winners from week 4 on out and facing a passing defense allowing an average 175 or fewer yards per game. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Jaguars to score 22 or more points and out gain the Falcons by at least 1.0 yards per play. In past games in which the Jaguars met or exceeded these performance measures has led to a highly profitable 42-8 SU record and 39-10-1 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. |
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09-30-23 | Notre Dame v. Duke +5.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Notre Dame vs Duke Wallace Wade Stadium 7:30 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Duke plus the 5.5 points In Week 1, we nailed Duke in their upset win over Clemson and here they are again poised to pull off an even bigger upset against a ranked Notre Dame team, who lost on the play of the game last week in South Bend over the Ohio State Buckeyes. So, betting on home dogs between 3 and 10 points in a matchup of two teams that out rush their opponents by 60 or more YPG have gone 26-22 SU and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. If the foe is a Top-25 ranked team, the record of these live dogs soars to 18-9 SU and 22-4-1 ATS for 85% winning bets. Make no mistake about it, Duke has an excellent defense that can cause major problems for the Irish offense. The Irish are 11-26 ATS when facing a team, whose defense allows an average of 285 or fewer YPG; 14-34 ATS when facing a defense that allows 4.5 or fewer yards per play. Duke is on a 12-2 ATS win streak in games played on a grass field; 7-0 ASTS following a game in which they outgained the foe by 125 or more total yards; 10-1 ATS in home games played in the first half of the season over the last three seasons. |
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09-30-23 | LSU v. Ole Miss +2.5 | Top | 49-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
LSU vs Ole Miss 10-UNIT Best Bet on Ole Miss plus the points 6:00 PM EST Let’s start with some analytics. Betting on home underdogs whose defense allows between 330 and 390 yards per game and facing a foe that averages 440 or more YPG and is coming off a game in which they allowed 6.25 or more YPPL have gone 85-41-2 ATS for 68% winning best over the past 25 seasons. Ole Miss is 43-23 ATS when facing very good offenses averaging 34 or more PPG; 26-12-1 ATS in home games following two straight games in which they forced no more than one turnover in each game. Betting on home underdogs using the money line that is an elite passing team gaining an average of 8.3 PYPA after allowing 9 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game and now facing a foe that is an average passing defense allowing 6.5 to 7.5 PYPA has earned a highly profitable 17-10 record for 62% winners averaging a +275 wager earning a 110% ROI over the past 10 seasons. Betting on home teams using the money line in September that are facing a foe that is coming off a win by 7 or fewer points over a conference rival has gone 134-63-2 SU for 68% winners and 60-17 SU for 78% winners over the past 10 seasons. If in a conference matchup, our home team has gone 15-3 SU for 83% winning bets. |
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09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
No. 24 Kansas vs No. 3 Texas DKR – Texas Memorial Stadium 3:30 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the Texas Longhorns minus the 16 points Kansas head coach Leipold is just 1-10 ATS in road games after out rushing their previous foe by at least 125 yards. Texas head coach Sarkisian is 6-0 ATS in home games following back-to-back games in which his defense no more than one turnover in each game. From the predictive model, we are looking for Texas to out gain Kansas by at least 2 YPPL and or score. In past games in which Texas accomplished this has seen them go 25-1 SU and 19-7 ATS for 73% winners when at home and priced as a double-digit favorite. |
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09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Clemson vs Syracuse Noon EST 8-UNIT best bet on Syracuse plus the points and sprinkle the money line The Tigers are 2-11 ATS (15%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons The Orange is 12-3 SU, 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in the first 4 weeks last three seasons The Orange is 44-23 SU, 43-24 ATS (64%) in home games after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 since 1980 The Orange is 11-3 SU, 10-3-1 ATS (77%) in second straight home game since 2019 The Orange is 20-22 SU, 27-15 ATS (64%) after outgaining the previous foe by more than 100 yards 12-5 SU and ATS if the game is at home Dino Babers is 20-10 Under (67%) when facing a foe that is outscoring their opponents by >=10 PPG (potential defensive battle) Coach Babers is 6-11 SU, 11-6 ATS, 13-4 Under (76%) when taking on a foe that allows 3 or fewer yards per rush Dabo Swinney is 2-6 SU in road games after a game in which the forced zero turnovers Coach Babers is 10-3 SU following back-to-back games gaining >=6.25 or more YPPL
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09-30-23 | Penn State -26 v. Northwestern | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Week 5: No. 6 Penn State vs Northwestern
Noon EST, 9-30
8-Unit Best Bet on Penn State -27 points and is good up to 29.5
8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 47 points OR (Not Both) Over the team total for PSU 36.5 points OR 4-Units Over PSU team total and 4-UNITS OVER Game total Parlay is NOT recommended The undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions take to the road to take on the Big-Ten conference foe Northwestern Wildcats set to kickoff at Noon EST. Penn State is coming off an impressive, but largely unnoticed 31-0 dominating home win over the then-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. After such a dominating win in which Penn State’s defense held Iowa to just four first downs, 56 passing yards and 26 rushing yards and outgained them by 321 total yards, they moved up one slot to No. 6 of the latest AP poll. That lack of attention is all the news info head coach James Franklin needs to motivate his team and avoid any minor letdown. I wrote prior to the season that I had made a bet at 38:1 that Texas would take on Penn State in the College Football Playoff game. Penn State ranks 15th scoring an average of 40.5 PPG and 5th-best allowing an average of just 8.8 PPG of the 133 Division-1 programs. Penn State is priced at +1600 and even now with a 4-0 record represents the biggest undervalued team on the board to win the National Championship at BetMGM.
Another futures bet I have made based on the value currently offered at DraftKings is on Penn State sophomore and 5-Star recruit Drew Allar at +3500 to win the Heisman. Through four games he has completed 67.2% of his passes for 903 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He is getting better with each game and although he is a dark horse to win the Heisman, if Penn State defeats Ohio State on the road and then Michigan at home, you can bet he will be one of the contenders. James Franklin has his best and most experienced offensive line and arguably the best unit in the Big Ten conference. The ground attack features last year’s Big Ten offensvie3 freshman of the year in Nicholas Singleton, who has 203 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Moreover, his running mate in the backfield returns in Kaytron Allen, who has 280 rushing yards and two touchdowns this season. Under head coach James Franklin is 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets in road games facing a conference foe and scoring 28 or more points.
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09-30-23 | Penn State v. Northwestern OVER 47.5 | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
Week 5: No. 6 Penn State vs Northwestern Noon EST, 9-30
8-Unit best bet Over the posted total of 47 points OR (Not Both) Over the team total for PSU 36.5 points OR 4-Units Over PSU team total and 4-UNITS OVER Game total Parlay is NOT recommended |
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09-29-23 | Aces v. Wings +6.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
Las Vegas Aces vs Dallas Wings
Friday 9:30 PM EST
8-Unit best Bet on the Wings plus the 6 points. From the predictive mode we are expecting the Wings to score 80 or more points and to out rebound the Aces by at least six offensive boards. Second chance scoring opportunities will favor the Wins and one of the dominant reasons I think they can win this game. In past games in which the Wings met or exceeded these measures has led them to a 23-19 record and 27-13-2 ATS and when priced as the underdog 10-15 SU, but 17-7-1 ATS for 71% winning bets. |
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09-29-23 | Padres v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs CWS
7:40 PM EST
8-UNIT BEST BET on the Under currently priced at 8.5 runs Betting the UNDER with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team averaging four or more walks-per-game and who have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned a 132-77-5 Under record good for 63% winning bets since 2019. If that team is the home team, the record improves to 78-38-2 for 67% winning bets and if the game occurs in September or October has gone 9-4 Under for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-29-23 | Liberty -4 v. Sun | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
Friday: WNBA
7:30 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the Liberty minus the 4.5 points This five game series is tied a one game each and this is the critical Game 3 that pivots most series just as Game 5 in the NBA playoffs determines the winner most times in a tied series at 2 games apiece. We successful bet on the Sun and the first two games of this series, but not believe the market has overreacted and now making the Liberty a cheap road favorite. They are the better team overall. Betting on road favorites from game 15 on out to the end of the playoffs that have lost to the spread in five or more of their last 7 games and now find themselves priced as not more than 7.5 point favorites has gone 55-21 (72%) and 47-27-2 ATS for 64% winners. |
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09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Louisville vs NC State 7:00 EST, ESPN Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC 8-Unit best bet the Wolfpack plus the 3.5 points NC State is 3-1 on the season and has not covered the spread in any of those four games. Their lone loss was at the hands of Notre Dame in Week 2 losing 45-24. Louisville is 5-0 and 2-3 ATS on the season and this is the first of many major showdowns coming up in the ACC. Not to mention Syracuse tomorrow taking on Clemson, who already has two losses on the season. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two solid rushing teams out gaining their foes by at least 60 YPG has earned an outstanding 26-22 record and 35-11 ATS for 76% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI 8:15 PM EST, September 28, 2023 | Prime Video 8-Unit best bet on the Packers +2 points Consider betting 6-Units on the Packers at +2 points preflop and then add 2-Units if Detroit is the first to score a touchdown. So, 7-0, 7-3, or 10-3 Lions’ leads during the first half of action only. Betting on dogs in games played in the first four weeks of the season, that failed to make the playoffs last season, and won their last two games of that season have gone 15-8 SU and 16-7 ATS for 70% winners over the past 10 seasons. If playing on a short week, the home team (Packers) have gone 4-1 ATS over the past 10 seasons. Creating a variation of this algorithm we learn that dogs in a divisional matchup that failed to make the playoffs in their previous, but did win their last two games of that season and with the current opportunity occurring in the first four weeks are 26-19 SU and 33-12 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Now, working against Detroit is the fact that teams that were not in the playoffs and won their final two games of the previous season and find themselves of no more than a 6.5 point favorite, playing in the first four weeks of the season are just 3-13 ATS and 6-10 SU over the past five seasons and 40-46 SU and 24-59-3 ATS for 29% over the past 20 seasons. Some 1-Unit max pizza money best bets: 1. Romeo Doubs +190 at DraftKings to score a TD 2. Jordan Love to complete 20 or more passes -125 at BetMGM 3. Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7 catches +102 at Bet Rivers |
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09-28-23 | Temple +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 26-48 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
Temple Owls vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, Oklahoma 7:30 EST, ESPN 8-Unit best bet on the Temple Owls plus the points, currently priced as 3.5-point underdogs in this AAC matchup. Owls head coach Stan Drayton has 16 returning starts from last year’s squad with 7 on offense including the quarterback and 9 on defense. Tulsa skipper Kevin Wilson is rebuilding with only four offensive and five defensive returning starters. Plus, he has an inexperienced quarterback. The Owl’s EJ Warner has completed just 54% of his passes and yet has thrown for 1000 passing yards. Despite Temple losing 41-7 last week to powerhouse Miami (Fla), Warner managed to throw for 240 yards including a touchdown. The Hurricane defense is more like a big breeze as compared to the strength and speed of the Miami Category 4 Hurricane defense. The predictive model shows us that Temple is 4-6 SU and 10-0 ATS when passing for 300 or more yards and scoring 27 or more points. |
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09-26-23 | Wings v. Aces UNDER 175.5 | Top | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
WNBA: Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Playoffs: 8-Unit best bet on the Under, currently priced at 175.5 points 8:00 PM EST Consider betting 6 units preflop of the market (Best available price you can get) and then look for the game to play a bit fast then expected in the first two quarters action and look for 182.5 points to add the remaining 2 units to the 8-Unit best bet opportunity. Betting the Under with a total of 140 points after game number 16, the home team has covered the spread in three of their last four games, has won at least 75% of their games on the season and facing a winning record team has seen the Under go 36-15 for 71% winning bets over the past 12 seasons. If the total is 160 or more points, the record has gone 20-10-1 Under for 67% winners and if above 170 points, the Under has gone 6-2 for 75% winning bets. If the total is 160 or more points and the road team has won 60% or more of their games, the record goes to 14-5 for 74% winning bets. |
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09-26-23 | Padres v. Giants +115 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants 9:45 PM EST, September 26, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Giants using the money line.
Betting on home teams that have averaged fewer than 2.5 extra-base hits over their last 15 games and now facing a foe that has batted 0.300 or better over their last five games has produced an 87-56 record for 61% winning bets averaging a +115 underdog and earning a highly profitable 27% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. |
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09-26-23 | Sun +9.5 v. Liberty | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
WNBA: Connecticut Sun vs Ny Liberty
Playoffs: 8-Unit best bet on the Sun plus the 9 points and a sprinkle on the money line.
8:00 PM EST This is Game 2 of the WNBA semifinals that saw the Sun take the first game with an exciting 90-85 victory and easily covered the spread priced as 10.5-point underdogs. The Liberty have seen their last 5 games play Over the total and have won 10 of their last 11 games, but just 6-5 ATS. The Sun have won 8 of their past 12 games and have ha e covered seven of them with two pushes. Betting on road teams in the regular and playoff seasons with one day of rest that are engaged in a matchup of teams each averaging 76 points per game and with the home team coming off a loss of 15 or more points has earned an outstanding 27-24 SU record and 32-18-1 STS mark good for 64% winning bets over the past five seasons. |
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09-26-23 | Cubs v. Braves -129 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves 7:20 PM EST, Tuesday 9/26 8-Unit Best Bet on the Braves using the money line Consider betting 2.5 units on the run line and then 5.5 units on the money line. The Braves clinched the NL East division title for 6th consecutive year, and it does feel like it was accomplished months ago. They are still competing for the top seed in the playoffs and home field advantage throughout over the Dodgers. So, you do not have to be concerned about them mailing this one in on Tuesday. Betting on favorites between -140 and -195 using the money line that is scoring at least 4.5 RPG, is averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game, and facing a NL foe starting a pitcher with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 33-11 record good for 73% winning bets averaging a -158 wager and earning a 30% ROI over the past 15 seasons. Justin Steele will be on the hill for the Cubs and is not in good form especially having to face by far the best offense in baseball. He has posted a 4.31 ERA and a 1.437 WHIP including 2 walks and 17 strikeouts over his last three starts. Bryce Elder has not lost a start since August 15 and he is 12-4 in 30 starts with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP this season. |
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09-26-23 | Rays v. Red Sox +119 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Tampa Bay vs Boston 7:10 PM EST, September 26, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Red Sox using the money line. The AL divisional race has been a great one, but now the Rays are 2.5 games back with just 5 games remaining on the schedule for the division-leading Baltimore Orioles, who have six games remaining. Realistically, the Rays are not going to sweep the Toronto Blue Jays, who they face in the final 3-games of the season. The Blue Jays are in the neck-to-neck race for the wire with the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners. I believe you will see the Rays get their starting pitching set for their first-round matchup against the Minnesota Twins. This two-games series marks the final home games at Fenway Park, which will be sold out. The Red Sox have had a successful season despite not making into the postseason. Remember, they were not expected to win more than 70 games and sentiment was more focused on if they would lose 100 or more games. They certainly overachieved and the fans will up for fan appreciation celebrations in these two games. Betting on teams that are on an excellent fielding streak that have gone 10 consecutive games committing no more than a single error in any of them and has a well-rested bullpen that has thrown three or fewer inning over their last two games has earned a 69-42 record. If our home team is priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 dog, their record improves to 17-6 averaging a 45% ROI and 45% Roi over the past five seasons. |
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09-25-23 | Astros +115 v. Mariners | Top | 5-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners 8-Unit best bet on the Astros using the money line What a great finish we have going on in MLB and the AL West is certainly center stage with three teams competing for divisional crowns and wild card berths not to mention their playoff lives. The Mariners really were not liked by the schedulers having to play the Rangers in Arlington over the weekend and they, as I had predicted, lost all of the games. Tie-breakers will come to the forefront this week as well. Check out this betting algorithm that has produced a terrific 44-19 record good for 70% winning bets averaging a +121 underdog and earning a 48% ROI over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on road teams that are facing a team fresh off a three-game losing sweep to a divisional foe and has won between 50 and 55% of their games on the season. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record for these road teams improves to 19-12 averaging a +133 wager and earning a 38% ROI. If the occurs in the month of September has produced a sensational 11-5 record averaging a +129 wager and earning a 58% ROI. |
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09-25-23 | Rams +2 v. Bengals | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Cincinnati Bengals 8:20 PM EST, Week 3 10-Unit best bet on the Rams plus the points. My subscribers won another 10-UNIT MAX Best bet on the Alabama Crimson Tide who defeated Ole Miss Saturday bringing the 4+ year record to 59-27 for 69% winning bets across all sports. NFL 10-UNIT MAX Bets have hit 73% ATS over the past four years and this also means that these plays lose 27% of the time ATS. Over the course a season in any sport, they have a high probability of putting a lot more cash in your pocket than not. These plays are 4-0 this season in CFB and the NFL. The following betting algorithm has done quite well producing a 20-9-2 ATS record good for 69% winning bets since 1993. Betting on road dogs of not more than 7 points that won six or fewer games in the previous season and is playing on Monday Night Football. If the total in these games is priced at fewer than 50 points, these dogs have gone 17-7-2 ATS for 71% winnig bets since 1993. If our dog won just 5 or fewer games in the previous season, they have gone 7-2-2 ATS for 78% winning bets since 1993. Here is a second betting algorithm that has produced a 62-62-1 record and an 84-63 SATS mark good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. and the requirements are to bet on road dogs in the first 8 weeks of the regular season that are facing a foe coming off at least one consecutive loss. If our road dog is priced at three or fewer points, they have gone to earn an outstanding 31-16 SU record and 32-12-3 STS mark good for 73% winning bets over the past five seasons. From my predictive models, we are looking for the Rams to gain more than 100 rushing yards and to keep the Bengals under 100 rushing yards and for the Rams to have at least 33 minutes in top-of-possession. In games where they met or exceeded these measures has propelled them to a 11-1 SU record and a 9-2-1 ATS mark good for 90% winning bets over the past five seasons. When any favorite in the NFL has allowed these metrics as seen them produce a horrid 28-100 SU (22%), 15-113 ATS (12%) record and 0-7 SUATS on prime-time Monday Night Football. |
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09-24-23 | Chargers +100 v. Vikings | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Chargers vs Vikings
Betting on teams that are dogs or pick-em that are averaging 5.6 or more yards per play and coming off a game in which their opponent gained 400 or more total yards and now facing a foe with a struggling defense allowing 5.5 or more yards per play has earned an 84=27 record and a 70-41 ATS mark good for 64% winning bets since 2013. If the game is taking place during the weeks three and 5, the record gets even better at 21-10 SU and ATS for 68% winning bets since 2013. |
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09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
Chargers vs Vikings
1:00 EST
8-Unit best Bet on the UNDER 54 points I also like betting 6-Units at 54 points or even 53.5 points and the look to add 2-Units at 56.5 points. I do not believe there will be an opportunity to get a live bet at a price of 60 or more points. However, use your intuition too, and if this game does get out of the gates faster on the scoreboard than expected I do believe that any total above 60 is an excellent opportunity. At a price of 54, each quarter needs to have 13/14 points scored and also implies that at least one team will score in each quarter.
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09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
Falcons vs Lions
1:00 PM EST
8-Unit best bet on the Falcons plus the 3.5 points Betting on dogs in the first four weeks of the regular season that are priced as 6.5 or fewer points and facing a non-playoff team from last season that also won two or more of their last games in the previous season have gone 22-13 SU and 29-6 ATS for 83% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. |
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09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Houston vs Jacksonville 1:00 EST
EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Betting on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are scoring an average of 28 or more points and did not make the playoffs in the previous season have earned a highly profitable 33-64-1 SU record averaging a +450 dog bet on the money line and a 64-30-4 STS record for 68% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Not one season posted a losing money result following the discipline of this betting system. Currently, the line is giving 7.5 points to the Texans and suggest placing 6-Units preflop at +7.5 points and look to get +10.5 points during the first half of action for the remining 2-Units. |
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09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Ole Miss vs Alabama 10-UNIT BEST BET on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points. With a total of 56 points and a line favoring Alabama by 7 points reflect s an Alabama 31.5 24.5 in Tuscaloosa. My predictive models show an 86% probability that Alabama will score at least 28 points and in past games in which they did score 28+ points they have gone 113-6 SU for 95% winners and 75-41-3 ASTS for 65% winning bets under head coach Nick Saban. Alabama is 15-1 SU and 12-4 ASTS for 75% under Saban in conference games and having suffered a loss on the season and scoring at least 28 points. If that loss was at home, he has gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ASTS for 78% winning bets. He is also 18-9 STS for 67% winners coming off two or more ats losses. Mississippi is just 14-40 SU and 16-37-1 ATS for 30% when allowing 28 or more points and 11-35 SU and 14-31-1 ATS for 31% when facing an SEC foe since 2014. Alabama has issues on offense and there is no doubting it, but the market has overreacted in a significant fashion. More than two months ago, this game had Alabama lined as a 15.5-point favorite and now has plummeted to -7. Did everyone forget just how good this defense is this season. In each of the previous negative starts to the season in which Saban’s team have struggled out of the gate they did successfully make the adjustments and fixed the problems on both sides of the ball and came out with a performance that reminds of us of who the Tide are: winners of 10 National Champions, twice as many as any one else. They covered the spread by an average of 7 PPG in these situations and my predictive model is expecting the same outcome. |
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09-22-23 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies 8-Unit best bet on the Phillies using the money line Friday With everything going on with College (17-6 ATS 74% winning bets) and NFL Football (8-4-1 ATS 67% winning bets) these MLB reports will be brief, but still model identified and the same strength as any other MLB best bet. Betting on home teams that are batting 0.220 or lower over their last 7 games and is starting a pitcher that allowed 5 or more runs including unearned runs in each of his last two starts has produced an exceptional 42-19 record for 69% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 44% ROI in games played over the past five seasons. Former Met Taijuan Walker will be on the hill for the Phillies and has struggled of late posting a 7.27 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP, but has still averaged 5.8 innings per starts. He did allow 5 and 6 runs in this previous two starts, but is projected to bounce back with quality start tonight. Tylor Megill starts tonight and he has gotten hammered on road over 11 starts with a 7.08 ERA and a 2.085 WHIP averaging just 4.3 innings per road start. Phillies should get to him with multiple run innings and win the game. |
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09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers 8-Unit Best bet Under the posted total of 44 points For LIVE Game betting, I will be taking 65% of my normal bet size and betting the ‘UNDER’ preflop and then looking for a faster than expected start in the first quarter and look to get 47.5 or more points betting the Under with the remaining 35% amount
Double-digit underdogs playing on a short week and on the road are 2-25 SU and 18-7-2 Under for 72% winning bets. I also like betting the Under Giants total of 16.5 points for no more than 2 units OR bet 1 unit preflop and then look to add the other unit at 21.5 points. Even under 20.5 points would represent an exceptional betting opportunity as well. The San Francisco 49ers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) are hosting the New York Giants (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football set to kickoff at 8:20 PM EST. The Giants avoided the dreaded 0-2 start to their season by mounting a historic comeback, trailing by 21 points in the third quarter, to defeat the inept Arizona Cardinals. The Giants offense did not score a point until the third quarter after getting shutout 40-0 in Week 1 by the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants are 35-12 Under following a win by three or fewer points; 17-4 Under if coming off a road win of three or fewer points; 34-19 Under following a game in which they trailed by 14 or more points at any point in the game. My predictive models and research are expecting the Giants to gain fewer than 200 passing yards and have more FG made than TDs scored. In those situations, the Under has gone 23-6 for 80% winning bets. |
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09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina Betting on the Under with a total of 60 or more points where the home team is coming off two consecutive wins by 14 or more points in each game and with the game taking place in the first five weeks of the season has produced a 27-8-1 record for 77% winning bets since 2007. From the predictive model, we are expecting both teams to gain an average of 5.4 or fewer yards per play. IN past games in which Coastal was one of the teams in the matchup the Under has gone 7-1 for 88% winners and when Georgia State has been in the matchup the Under has gone 14-2-1 Under 85% winning bets. |
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09-20-23 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 6-Unit best bet on the Under 9.5 runs 1- UNIT best bet NO Runs in the first inning (NERF Bet) 2- Unit Bet Under first Five innings OR 8-Units on the Under full game Wednesday, September 20, 2023 The Under is the bet in this matchup starting at 12:20 PM EST, Wednesday. The Phillies will have Aaron Nola on the hill and he has not pitched well of late posting a horrid 8.56 ERA and a 1.902 WHIP over his last three starts. However, he is a solid #2 starter in the NL and these starters bounce back from multiple non-quality starts. Betting the Under where the underdog is a winning record team, Is priced no higher than 150 on the money line, is starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70 and is averaging six or more SO per game has seen the Under go 25-14 for 64% winning bets over the past five years. Betting the Under in a game played in September with the road team’s starter coming off three consecutive bad starts (did not pitch 6+ innings and allow 3 or fewer ER) and has an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70 and facing a divisional foe has seen the First Five Under go 26-12 for 68% winners over the past five seasons |
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09-18-23 | Phillies -109 v. Braves | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 10-Unit best bet on the Phillies boxed with Wheeler on the money line Monday, September 18, 2023 The Braves will try to bounce back after being swept over the weekend, but it is uncertain whether MVP candidate Ronald Acuna Jr. will be in the lineup when Atlanta hosts the Philadelphia Phillies for three games beginning Monday night. The slugging right fielder left Friday's game early with right calf tightness and did not play Saturday or Sunday. He will work out on Monday and have his availability determined at that time. Acuna is batting .337 with 37 homers, 98 RBIs and 66 stolen bases this season. This opportunity is with Acuna playing, so it gets better if he is scratched. The Braves (96-53) were swept in Miami over the weekend, the first time they've lost a series to an intra-division opponent since April 2021. Philadelphia (81-68) took two of three at St. Louis, dropping Sunday's series finale 6-5. The Braves were guaranteed a first-round playoff bye on Sunday when Milwaukee lost to Washington. Philadelphia has a three-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the race for the first NL wild-card spot. So, the Phillies certainly have an edge form a motivational standpoint as they are still being chased for the top wild card berth and the right to host the wild card 3-game playoff round. Betting on winning record road teams facing another winning record divisional foe, who is coming off a three-game sweep to a divisional foe have gone 35-24 SU averaging a +105 wager and earning an outstanding 22% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. The +1.5 run line bet if available for the road team has earned a 26-87 record averaging a _150 bet and making a 35%Roi in games bet over the past five seasons. |
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09-18-23 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
New Orleans vs Carolina 8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers plus the points No more than a 3-Unit Parlay Under in this game and Under in the second game, which is Cleveland vs Pittsburgh Betting on underdogs of three or fewer points that are facing a conference foe that was not in the playoffs last season has earned a 32-22 SU record and 34-19-1 ATS mark good for 64% winners since 1992. |
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09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots 8:20 PM EST, Sunday Night Football 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots +2.5 points. The Dolphins and Chargers each recorded 30 first downs in their Week 1 matchup (which Miami won, 36-34). It was the eighth regular-season NFL game since 1960 in which each team had 30 or more first downs and only the sixth such non-overtime game in that time. Mac Jones had a career-high 54 pass attempts in the Patriots' Week 1 loss to the Eagles. Including postseason play, the Patriots are 0-8 in games in which Jones has thrown 38 or more passes (16-9 when he has fewer pass attempts). From the predictive model, we are looking for the Patriots to throw 30 or fewer passes and either gain more than 100 RY or gain more rushing yards than the Dolphins, and have no more than a single turnover. In past home games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures has led them to a highly profitable 37-1 SU and 30-7-1 ATS for 81% winning under Belichick. The Dolphins are 4-40 SU, 4-39-1 ATS when allowing these measures since 2000. Since 2000, the Patriots are 18=7 SU and 19-6 ATS when coming off a home loss in which they threw 35 or more passes under Belichick. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys OVER 38 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys 4:25 PM EST 8-Unit best bet on the OVER 38.5 points and is a valid bet up to 40 points Optional 5-Unit bet opportunity on the NY Jets plus 9.5 points If there is any game prop that if there is a pick six interception return, I like that a lot for pizza money Betting the Over with a team coming off a blowout win of 35 or more points over a divisional foe and had more rushing attempts than passing attempts has produced a 36-23 record good for 61% winning bets over since 1990. If the foe (Jets) is not from the same conference, the Over has gone 11-4 for 73% winning bets. The Jets went 2-7 over the first nine matchups against the Cowboys but have won their last three games against Dallas since 2011. The Jets have a perfect record in that time against just one other team, the Washington Commanders and a 3-0 record. The Jets beat the Bills on Monday despite a 10-point deficit in the third quarter. The last time the Jets had a comeback win when trailing at any point in the second half by at least 10 points during Week 1 was in 2011, a 14-point comeback against Dallas. In case you were wondering, teams that held their previous opponent to six or fewer points on 12 or more drives and now playing in a game with a total between 37.5 and 43.5 points are 31-37 SU and 21-43-4 ATS for 33%. That folks, means we are fading the Cowboys. |
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09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +7.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco vs LA Rams 4:05 PM EST 8-Unit Best Bet on the Rams +7.5 points and a little sprinkle on the money line. The 49ers are just 5-20 ATS following a great defensive effort in which they allowed 50 or fewer rushing yards. They are 14-28-1 ATS when on the road and coming off a game in which they allowed fewer than 10 points. They are 23-42 ATS in road games following a win by 14 or more points. Teams playing in weeks 2 through 4 that are coming off a road win against a divisional foe are 40-14 SU for 74% and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets spanning the past 10 seasons. If our team is playing at home, the record moves higher to 33-9 SU for 79% winning bets and 28-13-1 ATS for 68% winning tickets over the past 10 seasons. Puka Nacua became the fifth player in the last 60 years to record 10+ receptions in his NFL debut, along with Sid Banks in 1964 (13), Keke Coutee in 2018 (11), Anquan Boldin in 2003 (10) and Earl Cooper in 1980 (10). The 49ers held the Steelers to only seven points in Week 1, generating five sacks and two interceptions. The only other season opener in the last 60 years that San Francisco's defense hit all these marks was in 2003 (7 pts allowed, 5 sacks, 3 INTs). The next game they faced the Rams on the road and lost that game 27-24. San Diego Chargers vs Tennessee Titans 8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 46.5 points Betting the Over in a game with a total of 45 or more points, with the road team coming off a game in which they and their foe both had 27 or more first downs has earned a 13-23 SU record for 36%, 14-22 ATS for 39%, and 26-10 Over for 72% winners. Plus, if the game is a divisional showdown, the record soars to an amazing 13-3 OVER for 81% winners since 2000. Tannehill posted his worst passer rating in Tennessee's 16-15 loss in New Orleans, which also marked just the third game of his career and first since his rookie season with three interceptions and no touchdown passes. The Chargers (0-1) have their own motivation. They haven't won in their past two trips to Nashville and are coming off a 36-34 loss to Miami where they gave up a league-high 466 yards passing. From the predictive model, we are looking for the Chargers and Titans to combine for more than 700 yards of offense. In past games when the Chargers and their foe gained over 700 total yards has seen the OVER go 127-39 for 77% and the Titans have seen the OVER go 98-26 for 79% winners and these are projections without Eckler in the game. |
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09-17-23 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons 8-Unit Best Bet on the Packers plus 2.5 points 1:00 PM EST Betting against non-playoff teams that won their last two games of the previous season and are favorites of not more than 6.5 points in weeks 2 through 4 have gone 7-15 SU and 4-18 ATS for 18% winners and failing to cover the spread by an average 6 points per game over the past 10 seasons. Falcons are 3-17 ATS in home games coming off a double-digit win. Green Bay (1-0) faces the Falcons (1-0) on Sunday, and their QB Jordan Love will be looking to build on the solid numbers he put up in a 38-20 victory at Chicago. He threw for 245 yards and three touchdowns in his second career start after backing up Rodgers the last three seasons. The Falcons find themselves in strange territory after opening the season with a 24-10 victory over Carolina. For the first time since the end of the 2017 season, Atlanta has a winning record. The Falcons are a young team that remains uncertain and in a rebuild mode. However, the Packers have the potential under Love, how got to study, watch, and learn from the departed Aaron Rogers and that showed immensely in Week 1. The Falcons are building around their own young quarterback, Desmond Ridder, who passed for only 115 yards against the Panthers. Most notably, top receiver Drake Young failed to make a catch and was targeted only once and look for the Packers defense to minimize his catches today. |
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09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars 8-Unit Best Bet on the Jaguars plus the points Consider betting 6.5 units preflop on the Jaguars and then look to add 1.5 units if the Chiefs score a TD first or the betting line gets to +7.5 during the first half of action. Betting on home teams coming off a double-digit win to a divisional foe, total is 50 or more points and was in the playoffs in the previous season have produced a 34-6 SU record, 26-13-1 ATS for 67% winning bets since 1990. Jags head coach Pederson is a remarkable 15-4 ATS as a home dog for his career and 13-4 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points for his career. Supporting a sprinkle on the money line is the fact that teams coming off a road win against a divisional foe in the first four weeks of the regular season have gone 40-14 SU, and 34-19-1 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 10 years. No Super Bowl winning team has started out the following season 0-2 since the 1999 Denver Broncos, who were in rebuild mode after their legendary QB John Elway retired. The Chiefs fell to the Lions in Week 1, making them the second defending champions since 2000 to lose their season opener to a team that missed the playoffs the previous year. The 2012 Giants lost to the Cowboys in their season opener after winning Super Bowl XLVI. The Giants went on to a dismal 9-7 record, 7-8-1 ATS in 2012. The Jaguars have a great coach in Doug Pederson, who won the 2017 Super Bowl as the herd coach of the Eagles and their roster is built to make a run for the AFC Championship game. |
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09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +5.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Tennessee vs Florida
7:30 PM EST, Saturday, September 16
With a total of 58.5 points and a line favoring the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers by 6 points implies a 32-26 Volunteer win. The scoring has the potential to be quite volatile with many lead changes, which will provide great betting opportunities as well. So, consider betting 6-Units preflop and then add 1-Unit if Tennessee scores a touchdown first (not a field goal or safety) or if Tennessee gets out to a 10-0 lead having scored a FG first. Or simply add the 2-units if the price makes Florida a double-digit underdog at any point during the first half.
Betting on teams ranked in the Top-20 (not Top-25) that are road favorites of 4.5 to 9.5 points and facing a conference foe in the first four weeks of the regular season has gone 29-11 SU (73%), but just 13-27 ATS for 33% winning bets. So, fading these ranked false favorites is a great betting opportunity. If the game occurs in the SEC conference, the home dog is an amazing and highly profitable 13-2 ATS for 87% winning bets sine 1994 and has not lost ATS since 2010 going a perfect 10-0 ATS for 100% winners.
No. 11 Tennessee opens Southeastern Conference play on the road Saturday night against a Florida offense that gained nearly 1,100 yards combined in their last two meetings. Tennessee defeated Florida last season, 38-33, after losing 16 of the previous 17 matchups against the Gators. This will be the first matchup the Volunteers are ranked in the AP Poll and the Gators are not since October 2, 1971, when Tennessee was then No. 12. Last week against the McNeese State Cowboys, Trevor Etienne, Montrell Johnson and Treyaun Webb became the first FBS trio this season to each record at least 10 rushes, 70 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in a single game. This is the only such game for the Gators over the past 25 seasons. The last time Tennessee visited the Swamp on Sept. 25, 2021, Florida held the No. 11 ranking and rolled up 505 yards of offense in a 38-14 victory. The predictive models and applications. Suggest that Florida will score 27 or more points and have at least a three-minute edge in time-of-possession and run at least 8 more plays then Tennessee. In past games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures led Florida to a 24-1 record, 18-7 ATS for 72% winners and a 16-9 Over result. In past games in which Tennessee allowed these measures led them to a 4-21 SU record and 4-20-1 ATS mark for just 17% winning bets including an 18-6-1 Over result. |
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09-15-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +145 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
NY Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Friday, 6:35 PM EST, September 15, 2023 8-Unit best bet on the Pirates using the money line, currently priced at +120 and is a valid bet to the Pirates being a -110 favorite. The Betting Angles Supporting the Pirates Yankees are 9-17 averaging a _142 favorite and earning a dismal -44% ROI when facing a NL foe that is batting 0.255 or lower on the season in games played after the break over the past two seasons. Pirates are 25-24 averaging a +145 wager and earning a 24% ROI when facing a team that is averaging 1.25 or more HR per game this season and if at home 10-7 averaging a +132 wager and earning a 37% ROI this season. The Yankees may hit alot of home runs, but they do not hit well in situations with men on base and opportunities to score runs. Over the past seven games they have batted just 0.176 and scoring an average of 3.1 RPG. For the season, it is truly hard to believe this team with their 330MM+ payroll is scoring an average of 4.2 RPG and batting 0.225 with a horrid 0.298 on-base-percentage. They rank 29th of the 32 teams in the league in OBP and are ahead of the cellar dwelling Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics, and the Chicago White Sox. Gerrit Cole will be on the mound and he has been one of the bright lights in an otherwise horrid Yankee seasons. He is 13-4 in 30 starts with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.027 EWHIP including 45 walks and 204 strikeouts spanning 187 inning of work. He has posted a 1.42 ERA and a o.895 WHIP over his last three starts spanning 19 innings of work. However, the Yankees bullpen is a mess of late and even if the Pirates trail when Cole is brought out of the game, they will still have a chance to win the game. The PIrates will hand the ball to Johan Oviedo, who is making his 30th start and is 8-14 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.342 WHIP spanning 161 2/3 innings of work. He is pitching his best baseball right now posting a 3.30 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over his last three starts. He has an electric fastball that averages 96 MPH with late arm-side tailing action. The Yankees are not a disciplined hitting team and this is the type of pitch that gets them out and produces weakly hit ground balls and strikeouts. His slider, though, may be his best pitch and averages an above average 88 MPH, but again has tremendous movement with many of these pitches being whiffed at and out of the strike zone. |
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09-14-23 | Vikings +6 v. Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles 8-Unit Best Bet on the Vikings +7.5 points 8:20 PM EST Betting on road teams in the first five weeks of the season in a matchup where both teams are playing on a short week, both teams had no individual player having more than 19 rushing attempts in the previous game have gone 16-14 SU, 18-10-2 ATS for 64% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If our dog is priced between a 1 and 7-point underdog produces an 8-9 SU, 12-5 ATS mark good for 71% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Betting road underdogs that committed three or more turnovers in their previous game and facing a host that committed no more than a single turnover in their previous games has earned an outstanding 45-20-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past five seasons. In 2022, this system went 14-3 ATS for 82% winners. In 2021, it went 11-7 ATS for 61% winners. In 2020, it went 9-1 ATS for 90% winners. In 2019, it went 11-9-1 ATS for 55% winners. Point is that this system has generated tremendous results over the course of a season and remember that this system has had 20 ATS losses over the past five seasons. So, on any betting opportunity, it is exactly that – an OPPORTUNITY and not a LOCK. Betting against the previous season Super Bowl loser in weeks 2 through 4 and facing a foe that is coming off an upset loss are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS losing to the spread by an average of 13 PPG over the past 10 seasons. The Eagle’s defense is banged up and they were unable to generate any significant pass rush last week against the Patriots. Giving Cousins time to throw the ball and having numerous weapons to throw to starting with the NFL’s best receiver in Justin Jefferson is not a winning situation for the Eagles. Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell and safety Reed Blankenship are out with rib injuries while cornerback James Bradberry is in the concussion protocol. Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is questionable with rib injuries. The Eagles already placed linebacker Nakobe Dean (foot) on the injured reserve this week. Replacing Bradberry is Josh Jobe, who has had just 24 totals snaps in the NFL, which by itself makes Justin Jefferson, rookie Jordan Addison, and TE TJ Hockenson primary targets and excellent Over Player prop bets for catches and/or betting Over receiving yards gained tonight. If the Eagles elect to have Darius Slay mirror Jefferson, the first Slay will be out of position if lined up on the left side (defense perspective) and also puts Jobe in a new side of the field with no experience. The Vikings can utilize Jefferson as a decoy and force another backup at the free safety position, rookie Sydney Brown, to be used as deep help against Jefferson leaving Jobe on an island to cover Addison. Thius is a simple read for Cousins to make, especially if the Eagles defensive front does not get pressure on him with just their front four. If the Eagles need to bring linebacker blitzes, then look for Cousins to get the ball out quickly targeting Hockenson over the middle. |
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09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
Buffalo Bills vs NY Jets Now, this is a top-rated pick and we have seen an increase in scoring volatility with nearly 30% of games played seeing both teams enjoying 7 or more-point leads. Two games already in Week 1 saw this happen with the Detroit Lions scoring first and leading 7-0 and then the Chiefs roaring back to retake the lead 14-7. In the second game, the Vikings took a 10-3 lead after the Bucs opened the scoring 3-0 and then tied the game at the half and took the lead in the third quarter 17-10. This game has the potential for a similar back and forth type of scoring volatility so if it does happen let it work in your favor. Consider betting 8-Units on the Jets preflop and then if they fall behind by 7 points on the basis of a Bill touchdown to start the scoring add another unit plus the points, and if that lead goes to 10-0 or 14-0 then add the final unit plus the points. I am not suggesting this will happen, but if it does jump on it as another betting opportunity, in my opinion. Aaron Rogers is back with his former OC Nathaniel Hackett and former Packer’s WR Allen Lazard and WR Randall Cobb. The last time Rogers had an elite defensive unit playing with the Packers as back in 2010, which is also the year of the only Super Bowl ring Rogers has ever had. More, the Jets last season allowed the second fewest yards-per-play at 4.8 and just a couple of hundredths higher than the Philadelphia Eagles. So, even though this is the first game of the regular season, this Jets team – at least on paper – is much better than last year’s edition. Divisional dogs in week 1 action are 15-13-1 SU and 18-11 ATS over the past five seasons. Home dogs over the past five years have gone 5-3-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over the past five seasons, 9-6-2 SU and 13-4 ATS for 77% winning bets over the past 10 seasons, and 20-19-2 SU and 26-15 ATS over the past 25 seasons. If our dog is priced at just 2.5 points or less, they have gone 9-2 SUATS for 82% winners over the past 25 seasons. Rodgers is 6-0 ATS as a home dog and 43-27 ATS facing a divisional foe for his career. Favorites playing on Week 1 and on MNF have gone a terrible 14-11 SU and 7-16-2 ATS for 36% winners since 2009. Plus, if the MNF game is facing off divisional foes, the favorite is on a 5-5 SU record and 2-7-1 ATS for 78% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the favorite is taking on a host that had a losing record last season, the favorites are a horrid 3-9 ATS for 25% winning bets. From the predictive model, one of the high probability projections call the Bills to have the same or more turnovers than the Jets. Favorites on MNF in week 1that had the same or more turnovers when on to post a 2-7-1 ATS record for 22% winners. The Jets are also 12-3 ATS as a home dog hosting the Bills and 8-1 ATS for 89% winners when hosting the Bills as a home dog and priced at 7.5 or fewer points. The Flyboys are 71-12 SU and 69-13-1 ATS in home games in which they have scored 24 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past 20 seasons and 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS for 86% winners over the past five seasons. Take the Jets and remember always to be with your head and never over it and may all the wins be yours. |
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09-10-23 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
LA Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. Betting on dogs in Week 1 facing a divisional rival have gone 22-21-2 SU and 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets covering the spread by an average of 5 PPG. If our dog is priced as 6.5 or fewer points, they have earned a 19-14-1 SU mark and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets and if a priced as a home dog of 6.5 or fewer points an outstanding 7-4-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS for 82% winning bets covering by an average of 8.3 PPG. Betting on Dogs in a divisional matchup in Week 1 that lost both games to that foe last season have gone 18-33-2 SU, but 36-16-1 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. Now, if priced as a home dog of two or more points has gone 16-16-2 SU and 22-12 ATS for 65% last 20 seasons and has produced a 7-4-2 SU record and 12-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings Sunday, September 10, 2023 Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons. |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Philadelphia Eagles vs New England Patriots Week 1 8-Unit best bet on the Patriots plus the points currently at +4.5 points. The Super Bowl loser generally starts the next season off with a bit of a hangover or perhaps it is more over confidence knowing they are a Super Bowl contending type of team. The Patriots had an off season by many standards, and they did add quite a few solid pieces to fill voids and weakness from last year’s roster. The Super Bowl loser is just 2-10 ATS when playing on the road in Week 1 spanning the past 20 seasons and 1-5 if a road favorite of at least 2 points. Coach Belichick is 29-15 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 57-37 ATS as a dog for his career, 102-65 Ats in games played in the first half of the regular season. From the predictive models, we are expecting the Patriot to score 21 or more points, their defense to hold the Eagles passing game to 250 or fewer net passing yards and for the Patriots to gain at least 4 yards-per-carry. In past games in which the Patriots met or exceeded these performance measures saw them go an impressive 100-15 SU and 87-27-12 ATS for 76% winning bets and 67-4 SU and 53-17-1 ATS for 76% winning bets if playing at home in Gillette Stadium. The ’spine’ of the Eagles defense is the weakest part of their unit entering the season. They have had numerous personnel changes within the unit due to free agency and it is rare that any team can have solid chemistry and communication early on in the season. They also have five defensive starters aged 30 or more and the wear and tear of a long-standing career does take it’s toll on the human body. Two of those players re at the cornerback position with Darius Slay, who is still one of the best entering the season and James Bradberry on the right side, who was acquired as a cap casualty from the Giants. Last season, 12.0 of Matthew Judon's 15.5 sacks were recorded in the first half of games, most in the NFL. Overall, Judon's 28.0 total sacks since the start of the 2021 season are tied for the most in that span behind T.J. Watt. |
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09-10-23 | Bucs +5 v. Vikings | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Bucs vs Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Sunday, September 10, 2023 Let’s look at some of the supporting betting algorithms for this bet on the Rams. Betting on any team in Week 1 that won two or more games last season than the season prior and facing a foe that was in the playoffs last season, that won at least two more games last season than our team, and our team had a losing record last season have earned a 16-24 straight-up (SU) record and 27-13 ATS for 68% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. If our team is priced as a road dog, they have gone on to produce a 5-10 SU record and highly profitable 12-3 ATS mark good for 80% winning bets. From the predictive models, there is high probability that the Bucs will outgain the Vikings in total yards in this game. In past games over the past five season, teams that are priced as road underdogs and outgain their foes have gone on to a highly profitable 231-92-5 ATS for 72% winning bets. The Vikings are 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS for 25% winners when outgained as a home favorite over the past 10 seasons. |
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09-10-23 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens 8-Unit best Bet on the Texans plus the 9.5-points Consider betting 6-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +14.5 points during the first half of action. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. So, let the back and forth scoring that is prevalent in a typical NFL game work in your favor.
We are 12-5 ATS for 71% winning bets through two weeks of college football and 68% on 79-38 ATS record spanning the last three seasons as documented by sportsmemo and sports capping.
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09-10-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons
8-Unit Best Bet on the Carolina Panthers I think betting this game completely preflop is the way to go. Betting on dogs of 6.5 or fewer points in the first four weeks of the season that are facing a host that did not make the playoffs but did win their last two games of the regular season in the previous season are 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS for 92% winning bets over the past five seasons of action. Over the past 10 seasons, the record has been a highly profitable 22-14 SU and 29-6-1 ATS for 83% winning bets and over the past 20 seasons a record of 46-46 SU and 60-27-5 ATS for 69% winning bets. Dogs in a week 1 divisional matchup are 22-21-23 SU, 31-12-2 ATS for 72% winning bets that have covered the spread by an average of 5.5 PPG and if the dog is priced at 6.5 or fewer points, the record goes to 19-14-1 SU and 24-8-2 ATS for 75% winning bets. |
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09-09-23 | Wisconsin -5 v. Washington State | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
No. 19 Wisconsin vs Washington State
7:30 PM EST, September 9, 2023 Line: Wisconsin -6 | Total:59 points 8-UNIT BEST BET on Wisconsin minus the points This is a matchup between the Big Ten and PAC-12 in week 2 that will be televised nationally on ABC. Wisconsin got off to a low start in week 1 under new coach Luke Fickell before the offense took flight in a 38-17 win over the Buffalo Bulls. Wisconsin failed to cover the spread priced as 27.5-point home favorites. The Bulls trailed by only four points at the half, but were outscored by 24-7 in the second half. Wisconsin inexplicably lost 17-14 at home to Washington State in Week 3 priced as 17.5 point favorites so revenge is a factor that will prevent them from overlooking them a second consecutive year. Washington State has played in a bowl game seven straight seasons and eight of the past nine. However, the coaching staff has it’s third different offensive and defensive coordinator in as many seasons. Despite the fact that they have former OC Ben Arbuckle, who developed the 8th best offense in college football that averaged just under 500 Yards-Per-Game, it takes time for any offense to learn a new system without any game experience. On defense the problem worsens for Washington State having just five returning starters from a unit that allowed seven foes 20 or fewer points. So, it is not realistic to expect a rebuilding defense to have the potential to stop a Wisconsin air raid offense that returns 10 starters including quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who passed for 72 touchdowns in his past two seasons. Wisconsin has three outstanding starting receivers (Chimere Dike, Bryson Green, and Will Pauling) and added 13 quality players form the transfer portal. What are the Model Predictions?
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09-09-23 | Texas +7 v. Alabama | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Texas vs Alabama 7:00 PM EST, September 9, 2023 8-UNIT best bet on Texas plus the points currently priced at 7. If Alabama scores first in this game, consider adding no more than 1-unit on the money line. Texas head coach Sarkisian is 25-10 ATS in games with a total between 49.5 and 56 for his career. He knows what championship teams look like having been at the helm at USC in 2003 when they won the National Championship and as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in their championship season in 2020. Betting on dogs between 3.5 and 9.5 points after a game in which they outgained their foes by 175 or more total yards and has an experienced QB under center while facing a foe with a new and inexperienced QB at the helm has earned a 55-22 ATS record for 72% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. Quinn Ewers is the starting QB for Texas and was the #1 5-star quarterback in the 2021 recruiting class. He had a largely up and down season, but now has that valuable game experience under his belt. Remember, Texas lost at home to Alabama as 17.5 underdogs on a last second FG last year. They have superior depth at wide receiver this season with returning starter Xavier Worthy and the top-rated WR in the transfer portal in AD Mitchell from Georgia. Even more important is that the Longhorns return four of the five offensive linemen, and that unit has tremendous chemistry, which is a significant advantage for them against the ‘Bama defense. If the models and my research are correct, I do believe Texas wins this game outright. |
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09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +3 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Texas A&M vs Miami (FL)8-Unit Best Bet on the Miami Hurricanes plus the points, currently priced as 4.5 underdogs.
Betting on home teams that are coming off a game in which they gained 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game and in a game with both teams having eight or more returning defensive starters on their team has earned a solid 79-39 ATS record good for 67% winning bets over the past 10 seasons and is a consistent 56-28 ATS for 67% winners over the past five seasons. The Aggies have played their last six games without throwing an interception, which is the best current streak in the FBS. Problem for the Aggies is that these streaks rarely continue past six or seven games. Colbie Young had four receptions for 79 yards and caught his sixth career touchdown in his ninth career game with Miami. Among all power conference wideouts with less than 10 career games, Young has the most receiving touchdowns (six), second most catches (36) and second most receiving yards (446). From the predictive models, Miami is expected to have the same or fewer turnovers and hold the Aggies to less than 100 yards rushing. In past games in which Miami achieved these performance measures has seen them go 42-6 SU and 31-15-2 ATS for 67.4% winning bets. |
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09-09-23 | Notre Dame v. NC State +7 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
No. 10 Notre Dame vs NC StateNoon ET, September 9, 2023NC State +7.5 points
Consider betting 80^ of your bet amount preflop and then look to add the remaining 20% if Notre Dame scores a TD first or takes a 10-0 lead if their first score was a field goal. Betting on an unranked home underdogs of 7.5 or fewer points in the first two weeks of the season and with a posted total of 50 or more points has earned a solid 12-9 SU record and a 14-7 ASTS mark good for 67% winning bets since 2008. Now, if they are home dogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they do even better with a 9-24 SU record and an impressive 16-7 ATS mark for 70% winning bets since 2008. Teams have not played a game since 2017, but Notre Dame is riding a 32-3 SU record against the ACC, but has produced a 18-17 ATS mark over that span since 2017. Th efact that this trend has matured over many years actually becomes one that will be prone to reverse course with ND losing more ATS and SU then previously has been attained. Moreover, ND is just 2-112 ATS in road games after leading their last two games by 14 or more points at the half dating back to 2007. Betting on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, was a bowl team from the previous season has earned a 100-52 ATS mark for 65% winning bets. Plus, dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are facing a foe that is coming off a home win of 17 or more points and had won 60% or more of their games in the previous season has earned a 50-20-2 ATS mark good for 72% winning bets over the past 20 seasons. |
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09-09-23 | Nebraska v. Colorado UNDER 58 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
Colorado vs Nebraska
5-Unit best bet on Nebraska plus the points over the Colorado Buffalos.8-UNIT BEST BET on the Under The reaction has been swift and at this point irrational as 80% of the best being made are on the Buffalos pushing what my research shows to the superior team to be priced as the underdog. About two months ago, this betting line opened with Nebraska priced as a 10-point road favorite and now after one game, the market is telling us that Colorado is a 3.5-point favorite. Colorado is on an 0-7 ATS run in games played with a total between 56 and 63 points. Colorado is 14-27-1 ATS after ALLOWING 525 or more total yards in their previous game. As mentioned, the betting line opened with Nebraska priced as a 10-point road favorite and moved more than 10 points with some books offering Nebraska as a 3.5-point dog yesterday. The current price as Nebraska priced as a 2.5-point underdog. This game is getting more action than some NFL games, which is rare to see and more than 35% of the next most actively bet college football game, which is Texas vs Alabama. The overzealous reaction to Colorado, who suddenly is now ranked in the AP poll is a stunner. Whenever the line movements are this swift and exceed double-digits, the opportunity is to fade the trend and join the books, who will desperately need Nebraska to cover the number. |
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09-08-23 | Padres v. Astros -131 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Consider betting 8-Unit son the money line and 2-Units on the -1.5 run-line
Betting on home teams that are in an inter-league matchup and coming off a three-game series sweep of a divisional foe has earned a 46-12 record averaging a -114 wager and earning a 47% ROI in games bet over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break the record has been an impressive 14-3 averaging a -138 wager and earning a 49% ROI over the past five seasons. Plus, a near-perfect 7-1 if facing a losing record foe. This algo has gone a quite impressive 10-2 averaging -116 wager and earning a 55% ROI this season. The Astros, set to host the San Diego Padres in a three-game interleague series starting Friday, outscored Texas 39-10 and hit 16 home runs during the series while gaining sole possession of first place in the AL West Division for the first time this season spanning 141 games or with just 21 games remaining on the season. Cy Young contender and left-hander Blake Snell, who is 12-9 with a 2.50 has the starting assignment for the Padres on Friday. Snell leads the NL in ERA, opponent batting average (.191) and opponent OPS (.611), and ranks second in both whiffs percentage (37.0) and strikeouts (201). However, he also has recorded the most walks (89) and wild pitches (12) in the majors. Snell is 2-3 with a 6.11 ERA over seven career starts against the Astros. In his last appearance against Houston on May 30, 2021, Snell surrendered seven runs on five hits and three walks with three strikeouts over three innings in a 7-4 road loss. Despite being more than two years removed from facing the Astros the memories of facing them are not good and the Astros bats are scorching hot. Since 2007, there have been only three other teams to have hit 15 home runs in a three-game span. In 2019, the Yankees did it and won their next game 12-6. IN 2019, the Nationals did it and lost the next game 4-1. In 2020, the Blue Jays did it and won the next game 7-2 and also in 2020, the Yankees did it and won the next game 6-5. So, overall, teams that have hit 15 or more home runs in a three game span are 3-1. |
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09-07-23 | Lions +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs 8-Unit best Bet on the Lions plus the 4.5-points Consider betting 5-Units preflop taking the points and then look to add 2-units at +7.5 points and 1-Unit at +9.5 points. Scoring volatility reached a new high last season and the trend has been moving higher in each of the past five seasons. The Chiefs have played in the most games (32) in which they and their opponents had a 7 or more-point lead over the past five seasons and I believe this game tonight will be another one of those types of up and down games.
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09-06-23 | Mariners v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds Betting the OVER with a home dog of 135 to 155 on the money line in the last game of a series and that is coming off a walk-off win has seen the OVER go 42-22-6 for 66% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. Mariners are 24-11 Over after having lost four their previous five games. The Reds are 9-1 Over revenging a same-season loss priced as the favorite in that that loss. Under skipper Bell, the Reds are 72-44 OVER in home games following two consecutive games in which they committed no errors. From the predictive models, we are looking for the starters to combine for no more than 11 innings of work and for both teams to combine for 2 or more multiple-run-innings. In past games in which the Reds were at home and met these performance measures has seen the OVER go 210-64-11 for 77% winning bets and in road games, the Mariners have seen the Over go 222-48-12 for 82% winners. |
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09-05-23 | Astros v. Rangers +102 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers 8-Unit best bet on the Rangers using the money line I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play. Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI. |
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09-05-23 | Mariners v. Reds +136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 136 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Seattle Mariners vs Cincinnati Reds I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the money line and then look then bet 1-unit on the Rangers using the money line if the Astros score first or retake the lead during the first three innings of play. Betting on home underdogs including -110 favorites that are facing a scorching hot hitting team batting 0.290 or higher over their last 20 games has earned a 77-87 record, but by averaging a 145 wager has earned a highly profitable 14% ROI in games played over the past seven seasons. If the game occurs are the all-star break, these dogs move to an impressive 44-43 averaging a +152 wager and earning an outstanding 25% ROI. |
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09-05-23 | Red Sox +139 v. Rays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting on AL road dogs between 125 and 175 using the money line that are starting a pitcher with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 on the season and facing a foe that is starting a pitcher that averages 5 or more K’s-per-start has produced a 43-49 record for 47% winning bets, but by averaging a 147 underdog wager has earned a solid 15% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break, the record has been 20-18 for 53% winners averaging a 147 wager and earning a 30% ROI. |
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09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Clemson vs Duke Duke second-year head coach Mike Elko has 18 returning starters with 10 on offense including last year’s quarterback, Riley Leonard. After a three-win 2021 season that include losses in their last eight games, former head coach David Cutcliffe was dismissed. Elko turned things around immediately winning 8 regular season games and then won 30-13 in the Military Bowl over UCF. With a total of 55.5 points and Clemson favored by 13 points implies a 34.25-21.25 Clemson win. However, my predictive models show a high probability that Duke will score 27 or more points and average 6 or more yards-per-play. There are several projections that result in Duke’s offense gaining more YPP than Clemson. In past games in which Duke scored 27 or more points and averaged 6 or more YPP they went on to a highly profitable 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS for 73% winning bets over the past 5 seasons. If they score 27+ points and gain more YPP than their foe, the record goes to 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS for 83% winning bets. |
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09-04-23 | Giants v. Cubs -132 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs 8-Unit best bet on the Cubs using the money line I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for the Giants to score first or retake the lead during the first 3 innings of action and then bet 1-unit on the Cubs using the money line. After winning Game of their four-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres, the Giants lost the next three games scoring just 4 runs and getting shutout yesterday. The Cubs have won 8 of 12 games and are coming off a four-game split to their division-rival Cincinnati Reds. The Phillies enjoy a 5.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, while the Cubs are currently in the second slot. Then there is a big-time log jam with the Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Reds in a dead heat for the third and final wild card berth. The key info to know is that the Giants own most of the tie-breakers and the Diamondbacks do not. Betting on teams that have won 51 to 55% of their games that are facing a foe that is on a 3-game losing streak having lost each of those games to a divisional foe has gone 11-2 for 85% averaging a -141 wager and earning a 45% ROI since 2019. If our team is the home favorite, then our team has gone a near-perfect 8-1 averaging a -127 wager and earning a 65% ROI. |
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09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Florida State vs LSU I suggest making a 7-Unit bet using the spread and then look for LSU to score first or retake the lead during the first half of action and then bet 1-unit on the Seminoles using the money line. FSU head coach Mike Norvell returns 17 starters with nine on defense. The Seminoles started 22 freshman at some point in games played last season and that experience is a monumental advantage and provides superior depth at the skill positions in this matchup. Last year, the Seminoles played 22 freshmen ranking third most in college football and ranked third nationally scoring an average 10.4 PPG in the first quarter of action. Jordan Travis, a senior transfer from Louisville, returns under center after having a great 2022 campaign completing 64% of his 226 passes for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and an outstanding 160.1 quarterback rating (QBR). What I am most impressed this coming into the season are the stable of Seminole running backs starting with red shirt junior transfer Trey Benson, red shirt freshman Rodney Hill, red shirt junior, Lawrence Toafili, red shirt junior transfer Caziah Holmes, and red shirt sophomore CJ Campbell, JR. After transferring from Oregon, Benson ran for 990 rushing yards, averaging 6.4 yards-per-rush (YPR) including nine touchdowns (TD). He accounted for 1,156 yards from scrimmage and 120 TD. I believe Hill is going to have a breakout season and is listed as the second RB on the Seminole depth chart. He has elite quickness, speed, and elusiveness that may give the Seminoles two 1,000 yard ground gainers this season. The most significant addition to the Seminole offense is the junior transfer Keon Coleman from Michigan State, who has NFL size at 6-4 and 215 pounds and can be consistently covered in man coverage schemes. For MSU last season, he caught a team high 58 balls for a team-high 798 receiving yards, averaging 13 yards-per-catch (YPC) including team-high eight receiving TD. From the predictive models, we are looking for FSU to score 28 or more points and have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games in which FSU met or exceeded these measures has produced a 18-0 record and 14-4 ATS record good for 78% winning bets. In games in which LSU allowed 28+ points and had the same or more turnovers has led to a 4-9 record and a 3-10 ATS record for 23% winners in games played over the past five seasons. |
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08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +130 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Thursday – Atlanta Braves vs LA Dodgers 10-Unit best bet on the Dodgers using the money line I recommend betting this game with 8-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add the remaining two-unit amount if the Braves to score first, which they are quite good at doing this season, or retake the lead at some point over the first three innings of action. The Braves own the major leagues' best record at 87-45 averaging a -181 wager and earning a 7% ROI, with the Dodgers second best at 83-49 averaging a -162 wager and earning a 6% ROI and closing fast with 24 victories in 28 games this month. The August success has given Los Angeles its third most wins in a single month in franchise history. With another victory on Thursday, the Dodgers would tie their single-month high accomplished in June 1947 and August 1953. This is certainly a potential preview of the NLCS, but the Philadelphia Phillies are playing spectacular baseball in their own right. Betting on any team that is averaging 5.0 or more RPG and has allowed two or fewer runs in each of their two previous games and facing a NL foe with a strong starter with a 3.70 ERA has produced a 158-109 record good for 59% and earning a respectable 9% ROI. If the game takes place after the all start break the record improves to 62-30 for 67% winning bets and earns a 24% ROI. If our team is the dog, the record is 12-12, but averaging a +140 wager produces an exceptional 26% ROI and if they are a home dog, a perfect 3-0. Betting on home dogs using the +1.5-run line that are facing a foe that is batting 0.290 or better over their previous 20 games has earned a 103-57 mark good for 64% winning bets over the past seven seasons. If our dog is priced at no higher than 150 on the money line, the run line record has gone 75-32 for 70% winning bets earning a highly profitable 27% ROI over the past seven seasons. I mention this as an alternative in-game bet to take the +1.5 run line if the Braves score first. In only one other occasion this season has the Dodgers been priced as a home dog. Home dogs that are in a matchup where both they and their foe have won at least 60% of their games on the season and the game occurring after the all-star break has earned a 13-11 record for 54%, Averaging a 121 wager and earning a 19% ROI. |
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08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
Thursday – Nebraska vs Minnesota · Betting on road underdogs facing a conference foe using the MONEY LINE · Our dog is priced at 10 or fewer points · Game occurs in the first three weeks of the season · Our dog is coming off a season in which they allowed 400 or YPG · 26-26 (50%) | 315 ML wager | 310% ROI past 20 seasons Subset: If our road warrior lost by 3 to 9 points in the previous meeting 9-12 (43%) | 12-5 ATS (71%) last 20 seasons
At this point, it appears the Cornhuskers will have their third different starting QB in as many seasons. Former Georgia tech QB, Jeff Sims transferred to Nebraska in December and had a solid Spring football season. He will have a much-improved offensive line in front of him led by ASU transfer and Center Ben Scott. The offensive scheme will be the spread option under head coach Matt Rhule. Nebraska will run the ball from many different pre and post-snap alignments and create opportunities for short pass routes, which in turn will set up the play action pass play in man coverage situations. This ball-controlled scheme will give the defense time to rest between sets of downs, which is something that unit has not benefitted from in many seasons.
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08-31-23 | Florida +4.5 v. Utah | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Thursday – Florida Gators vs Utah Utes The ranked Utah Utes will take on the SEC-member Florida Gators in Week 1 action set to kickoff at 8:00 PM EST, Thursday evening. Ranked teams of between a 7.5-point dog and 7.5-point favorite are 44-41 SU (52%) and 35-47-3 ATS (43%) in Week 1 action. If they won 10 or more games in the previous season, they have underperformed with a 26-22 SU record (54%0 and 19-27-2 ATS mark for just (41%), and the OVER has gone 28-18-2 for a solid 61% winning bets. Let’s drill a bit deeper into the omnipotent database. In week 1 action ranked teams priced between a 7.5 dog and favorite and facing an unranked foe fall flat producing a 15-12 SU record and 7-19-1 ATS mark good for 27% winning bets. This implies that fading these falsely ranked teams, hits 73% winning bets. Not the situation for our matchup here but note for future reference that these Week 1 teams when priced as a dog have gone a terrible 0-4 ATS. If our road disrespected dog won fewer games in the previous season than the ranked foe, these dogs have earned an 11-15 record and a solid 18-7-1 ATS for 72% winning bets over the past 17 seasons and since Covid in 2020, this situational betting angle is a perfect 6-0 ATS. Gator head coach Napier is 5-1 ATS pried as a dog and was 10-3 as a dog while at the helm of Louisiana Lafayette; 15-4 ATS for his career. Utes head coach Whittingham is just 21-35 ATS for 38% when priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point favorite. If those games occurred during the first four weeks, Whittingham is just 4-9 ATS for 31%. From the predictive models, we are looking for Florida to score 24 or more points and have a 5 or more-minute advantage in time-of-possession. In past games in which Florida has met or exceeded these performance measures, they have gone on to a 45-2 SU record and 35-12 ATS mark good for 75% winning bets and if the game is on the road and they are priced as the dog, 4-2 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS. When Utah has allowed these performance measures, they have gone 4-16 SU and 3-16-1 ATS for 16%. |
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08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 47 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
Thursday – North Carolina State vs Connecticut Betting the Under with two teams who lost their last two games of the previous season and with a game total between 45 and 49 points has produced a 32-20 Under record good for 62% winning bets over the past 15 seasons. If the home team is priced as the underdog the Under soars to a highly profitable 13-3 for 81% winning bets. |
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08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Thursday – Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Betting on teams priced between a -125 favorite and a 125 underdog that are facing an excellent starter that has posted an ERA of 0.00 over his previous three starts has earned a 22-6 record averaging a +111 wager and earning an outstanding 49% ROI since 2016. Yes, that is a great contrarian betting system and we are getting the Rangers cheap given their recent six game losing streak too. The Twins bullpen has been a bit unstable recently compiling a 5.87 ERA and a 1.696 WHIP over their previous seven games. Pablo Lopez will have the ball to start the game and has produced amazing numbers with a 0.00 ERA and a 0.947 WHIP, 3-0 record including 22 strikeouts and just three free passes spanning 19 innings of work. He has worked 6 or more innings in each of his last five starts and has not allowed more than 2 ER in six straight starts. His recent excellence somehow works against him and other starters, who have managed to allow zero earned runs over a 3-start span. Once again, the Twins bullpen imploded Wednesday in an extra-inning loss to the Milwaukee Brewers. Twins starter Maeda went 5 innings allowing 3 ER, 2 BB, and 6 Ks. The Twins used four relievers, who allowed a combined 4 ER over 5 innings including two walks and 3 Ks and one home run. The Rangers will start Andrew Heaney, who is 1-0 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.781 WHIP over his last three starts. He has recorded 122 strikeouts over 118 innings on the season. He is a traditional three-pitch starter featuring a 4-Seam fastball that is used 58%, an excellent slider, used 24%, and a change used 18% and mostly to left-handed hitters. Despite averaging 92.5 MPH with his fastball, the differential in speed to his slider is an optimal 12 MPH making it difficult for any batter, especially RH ones, to identify the pitch. He averages an excellent 27% whiff percentage on all pitches thrown and the Twins have 7 batters that have chase rates of more than 30%. Pablo Lopez has above average spin rates, but not as elite as Heaney, who averages an amazing 2500 RPM with his slider. Lopez has excellent late-breaking sinking action with his fastball. However, the Rangers have 6 batters in the lineup that are averaging 90 MPH exit velocities and understand how to lay off a fastball that is heavy and has late movement that ride up the handle of RH batters. |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Monday – Seattle Mariners vs CWS Start Time is 8:10 PM EST. Consider betting 7-Units pre-flop using the -1.5-run line and then look for the CWS to score first or retake the lead at any point during the first three innings of action to add the 1-unit on the money line. Betting on favorites of -150 or greater on the money line with the run line that is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 4.25 or lower on the season and is facing a struggling foe that is scoring just 4.25 or fewer RPG has produced a 23-13 ML record and a 20-16 Run Line record averaging a +105 RL wager and earning a 17% ROI since 2016. The Mariners have caught fire since putting all-star Julio Rodriguez in the leadoff spot of the batting order having won five consecutive games and have won 15 of their last 18 games to close to within three games of Al Division-leading Texas Rangers and with 2.5 games of the reigning world champion Houston Astros. The Mariners hold the third wild card berth by just a ½-game over the Toronto Blue Jays and by three games over the surging Boston Red Sox. The CWS are playing out the remainder of the season and have lost 12 of their last 17 games and allowed 30 runs to the Colorado Rockies in their three set over the weekend. Starting tonight for the CWS is Touki Toussaint, who is just 1-5 in eight starts with a 5.26 ERA and 1.519 WHIP. Over his last three starts he has posted a 0-2 record with a 6.91 ERA and a 1.954WHIP.
Boston vs Houston |
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08-21-23 | Red Sox +115 v. Astros | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
Boston vs Houston 8-Unit Best bet on the Boston Red Sox using the money line Bet 7-unit son the money line and then look to add a 1-unit amount on the +1.5 run line if the Astros score first or take the lead at any point during the first three innings. James Paxton will be on the hill for the Sox and the left-hander has gone 9-4 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.270 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Astros. He is 7-3 in 16 starts with a 3.34 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP including 93 strikeouts and 23 walks over 86 1/3 innings of work. He is 6-2 in night starts with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.068 WHIP with 78 strikeouts and 17 walks over 68 1/3 innings of work. Betting on any winning record team that is facing a foe coming off a three straight losses to a divisional foe priced as favorites and has won 54 to 60% of their games has gone 43-29 for 60% winners averaging a +111 wager and earning a 24% ROI over the past 15 seasons. If our team is a road dog of any size, they have gone 21-7 for 75% winners averaging a +135 wager and earning a 57% ROI over the past 15 seasons. |
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08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders 8-Unit NFLX best bet on the Commanders +1 or the money line. |
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08-18-23 | Marlins v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Miami Marlins vs LA Dodgers 8-Unit best bet on the UNDER currently priced at 8.5 runs Consider betting the Under or 7-Units preflop and then look for a score in the first inning to add the remaining unit. If no score occurs in the first inning then look for 9.5 runs to bet the Under during the first three innings of play.
Betting the UNDER with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team, Dodgers, averaging four or more walks-per-game and who have allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned a 127-71-5 Under record good for 64% winning bets since 2019. If the game occurs after the all-star break the Under has gone 19-9-1 for 68% winning bets since 2019. The Dodgers put their 11-game win stream on the line when they face reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Sandy Alcantara. The Dodgers will have Tony Gonsolin on the hill and has gone 8-4 in 19 starts with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP on the season. This season, Alcantara has not put up Cy Young worth numbers. He is just 5-10 in 24 starts with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.181 WHIP including 135 strikeouts spanning 158 1/3 innings of work. However, over the past three starts he has put up impressive numbers with a 1.96 ERA and a 0.783 WHIP including 22 strikeouts, just three walks, over 23 innings of work. He is coming off a complete game 3-1 win over the NY Yankees allowing 1 ER on five hits with two walks and a season-high 10 strikeouts.
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08-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres 8-UNIT BEST BET UNDER the posted total currently at 8.5 runs Betting the Under with a total of 8.5 or more runs with a team that is averaging 4 or more walks-per-game (Padres) and allowed three or fewer runs in each of their two previous games has earned an outstanding 127-71-5 record for 64% winning bets and a 25% ROI over the past five seasons. If the game occurs after the all-star break the Under has gone 19-9-1 for 68% winning bets over the past five seasons. We had an UNDER bet win for us last night in this matchup and going with it again is a solid betting opportunity. Brandon Pfaadt is the #1 pitching prospect for the Diamondbacks and he has been roughed up at the MLB level. However, in five starts since Pfaadt returned from Triple-A Reno, Arizona's fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft has a 4.34 ERA, a 1.207 WHIP and a .261 opponents' batting average. When he was sent out after a disastrous two-plus-inning outing on June 29 against the Tampa Bay Rays, Pfaadt had a 9.82 ERA, a 1.870 WHIP and a .346 opponents' batting average. A change in his positioning on the pitching rubber has greatly improved his attack angles and locating pitches in the best locations in the strike zone more consistently. On Sunday, when he was matched against Lugo in Phoenix, Pfaadt gave up three runs on nine hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Lugo (4-6, 4.16 ERA) held the Diamondbacks to two runs on six hits and no walks with four strikeouts over five innings. |
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John Ryan ALL Sports Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-11-23 | Astros v. Twins -119 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
10-11-23 | Braves v. Phillies -118 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
10-10-23 | Seattle Kraken +145 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10-10-23 | Liberty -6.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10-09-23 | Phillies +142 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Cowboys +4 v. 49ers | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Jets +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Texans v. Falcons -2 | Top | 19-21 | Push | 0 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
10-08-23 | Giants +13 v. Dolphins | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Miami-FL -20 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Vanderbilt v. Florida -17.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Washington State v. UCLA -3 | Top | 17-25 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
10-07-23 | LSU -5.5 v. Missouri | Top | 49-39 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Oklahoma v. Texas -4.5 | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
10-07-23 | Western Michigan v. Mississippi State -21 | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
10-06-23 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State +11.5 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
10-05-23 | Bears +6.5 v. Commanders | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10-05-23 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech +6 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
10-04-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -151 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10-04-23 | Jacksonville State +3.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
10-03-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -142 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10-03-23 | Blue Jays +108 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
10-02-23 | Seahawks v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 53.5 | Top | 20-48 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Steelers v. Texans +3.5 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Ravens +2.5 v. Browns | Top | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Vikings -5 v. Panthers | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Commanders +9 v. Eagles | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
10-01-23 | Falcons v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 55 m | Show |
09-30-23 | Notre Dame v. Duke +5.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
09-30-23 | LSU v. Ole Miss +2.5 | Top | 49-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
09-30-23 | Kansas v. Texas -16 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
09-30-23 | Penn State -26 v. Northwestern | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
09-30-23 | Penn State v. Northwestern OVER 47.5 | Top | 41-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show |
09-29-23 | Aces v. Wings +6.5 | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
09-29-23 | Padres v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
09-29-23 | Liberty -4 v. Sun | Top | 92-81 | Win | 100 | 32 h 23 m | Show |
09-29-23 | Louisville v. NC State +3.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
09-28-23 | Temple +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 26-48 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Wings v. Aces UNDER 175.5 | Top | 84-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Padres v. Giants +115 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Sun +9.5 v. Liberty | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Cubs v. Braves -129 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
09-26-23 | Rays v. Red Sox +119 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
09-25-23 | Astros +115 v. Mariners | Top | 5-1 | Win | 115 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
09-25-23 | Rams +2 v. Bengals | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
09-24-23 | Chargers +100 v. Vikings | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
09-24-23 | Chargers v. Vikings UNDER 53.5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
09-24-23 | Falcons +3.5 v. Lions | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
09-24-23 | Texans +8 v. Jaguars | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
09-22-23 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 63 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
09-20-23 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -107 | 2 h 39 m | Show |
09-18-23 | Phillies -109 v. Braves | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
09-18-23 | Saints v. Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show |
09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +2.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys OVER 38 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +7.5 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
09-17-23 | Packers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
09-17-23 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +5.5 | Top | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
09-15-23 | Yankees v. Pirates +145 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
09-14-23 | Vikings +6 v. Eagles | Top | 28-34 | Push | 0 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
09-10-23 | Rams +5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +3.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
09-10-23 | Bucs +5 v. Vikings | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
09-10-23 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
09-10-23 | Panthers +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
09-09-23 | Wisconsin -5 v. Washington State | Top | 22-31 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
09-09-23 | Texas +7 v. Alabama | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +3 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
09-09-23 | Notre Dame v. NC State +7 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
09-09-23 | Nebraska v. Colorado UNDER 58 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
09-08-23 | Padres v. Astros -131 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
09-07-23 | Lions +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
09-06-23 | Mariners v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
09-05-23 | Astros v. Rangers +102 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
09-05-23 | Mariners v. Reds +136 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 136 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
09-05-23 | Red Sox +139 v. Rays | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
09-04-23 | Clemson v. Duke +13 | Top | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
09-04-23 | Giants v. Cubs -132 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
09-03-23 | LSU v. Florida State +2.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
08-31-23 | Braves v. Dodgers +130 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
08-31-23 | Nebraska +7 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 47 m | Show |
08-31-23 | Florida +4.5 v. Utah | Top | 11-24 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
08-31-23 | NC State v. Connecticut UNDER 47 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
08-21-23 | Red Sox +115 v. Astros | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
08-21-23 | Ravens v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 28-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
08-18-23 | Marlins v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
08-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |