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Jimmy Boyd NBA Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-02-13 | Toronto Raptors v. Milwaukee Bucks -5 | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in their last five games. You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Toronto when they coming off a home loss and are revenging a home loss to their opponent. This system is 124-66 (65.3%) over the last five seasons. In the last 11 head to head meetings between these teams the Bucks are 9-2 ATS. Milwaukee is 32-15 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last three seasons. It seems as though they will easily improve that number when they face a Toronto team that has allowed 102 points per game on the road while scoring only 96.5 what they are away from home. The Raptors are playing without any rest. They traveled from Indiana to Milwaukee and will start a four game road stretch with this game against the Bucks. Milwaukee is playing on two days of rest and coming off solid back to back performances against Houston and Dallas. Milwaukee is the hot team, the well-rested team and the smart play laying such a small number on their home court. |
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03-01-13 | Sacramento Kings v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 211.5 | 102-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Spurs OVER
The Kings run a lazy defense, and they average over 20 fouls per game when playing on the road. Sacramento is 20-7 to the over when playing against good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. It seems like the Kings have stopped playing defense all together, going over the total in eight of their last nine games. In head to head matchups between these teams the over is 4-1 the last 5 games being played at San Antonio. Head coach Keith Smart is 27-13 to the over when playing with double revenge after 2 straight losses against an opponent as the coach of Sacramento. The Kings are allowing 104.8 points per game when playing on the road and the Spurs are scoring 105 points per game at home. Sacramento is averaging over 111 points per game in their last five games so it is safe to say their offense is hot right now. The Spurs just finished a 9 game run on the road to come home and give up 105 points to the Phoenix Suns. They have had only one day of rest and now face a Sacramento team that is putting points on the board with ease. This game should have no problem going over the total. |
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03-01-13 | Indiana Pacers v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 187 | 93-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NBA TOTAL DOMINATOR on Raptors/Pacers UNDER
Indiana is 17-8 to the under when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Some teams make adjustments to the offense and others to the defense when they are not playing well. The Raptors are a team that makes defensive adjustments which explains why they are 30-16 to the under after failing to cover two of their last three games against the spread over the last two seasons. The Raptors lost as a favorite against Golden State and as a favorite against the Clippers. Head coach Dwane Casey will certainly have a plan to slow down the Pacers which will help us on the under. Indiana is allowing 89.6 points per game and scoring only 89.2 points per game when playing on the road. Toronto has allowed 95.4 points at home, but the Pacers are one of the worst road teams in the league when it comes to scoring so they should be able to perform much better than their statistical average. Neither team has problems with foul trouble which is good for an under because it keeps the clock running. |
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02-28-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls -7 | 82-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Chicago Bulls -7
Both of these teams have been plagued by key injuries this season. Rose and Bynum are still out and both Chicago and Philadelphia are in desperate need of a win. You should always play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia when they are trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent that is off a home loss. This system is 123-66 (65.1%) over the last five seasons. The 76ers are 26-43 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons and 5-15 ATS in road games against teams winning 51-60% of their games over the last three seasons. Philadelphia has lost six consecutive games coming into this matchup and their defense has allowed over 50% shooting in two of their last three games. The Bulls got the wake-up call they needed when they lost to Cleveland straight up going into that game favored by 8.5 points. Chicago should be motivated for this matchup against a struggling team from Philadelphia. Laying the points is the smart play for this game. |
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02-27-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Utah Jazz -5 | 102-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Utah Jazz -
The Jazz have the best home court advantage in the NBA and they are coming off a home loss to the Celtics so they should be motivated to pick up a win against the Hawks. Utah is 21-7 at home and 17-11 ATS. Atlanta |
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02-27-13 | Phoenix Suns v. San Antonio Spurs -15.5 | 105-101 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on San Antonio Spurs -
The Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games and 0-4 ATS when playing on 0 days of rest. They are one of the worst teams in the league and have been horrible on the road. They now face a Spurs team that is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days of rest and 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams winning 40% or less of their games on the road. The Spurs are 30-13-3 ATS against teams with a losing record and the favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams. San Antonio is 36-15-3 ATS in their last 54 games at home and with the Suns playing in a back to back and coming off a game that went to overtime last night we have a perfect setup for a blowout. |
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02-27-13 | Golden State Warriors v. New York Knicks -7 | 105-109 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on New York Knicks -
The Warriors are in a tough travel spot going from Indiana to New York for back to back games. There was a fight late in the game against the Pacers and the worry of potential suspensions has to be hanging over the Warriors heads. Golden State is 7-21 ATS against teams making 36% or more of their three point attempts in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. There is a big sign that the Warriors are one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this year. They have a winning record, but they are not outscoring their opponents. Golden State has allowed 104.6 points per game on the road while scoring a mere 100.5 of their own. Teams that are not outscoring their opponents but have an overall winning record are generally teams that are overrated and struggle against good teams. The Knicks are definitely a good team and they have had two days of rest coming into this game. |
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02-27-13 | Toronto Raptors -3 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | 92-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Toronto Raptors -
The Raptors are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games and 14-3 ATS against teams with a win percentage at 40% or less. Cleveland played last night in Chicago and got an upset victory over the Bulls. They are in a spot for a letdown performance tonight against Toronto. Kyrie Irving did not play last night due to a knee injury and he is doubtful for tonight |
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02-27-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Orlando Magic OVER 206 | Top | 125-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
5* NBA TOTAL NO BRAINER on Kings/Magic OVER
You should play on the over when the game involves two average offensive teams scoring 92-98 points per game after one of those teams allowed 105 points or more in three straight games. In this matchup that team would be Sacramento and this system is 42-18 (70%) over the last five seasons. Sacramento has had a lot of foul trouble this season. When a team has a lot of fouls it makes sense that the game would go over the total. The clock is stopped and points are getting put on the board. Sacramento is 19-7 to the over vs. good free throw shooting teams that are making 76% or more of their attempts this season. Orlando is 15-4 to the over against up-temp teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game in the send half of the season over the last three seasons. Both of these teams struggle defensively. Sacramento is allowing 105 points per game on the road while Orlando is allowing over 100 points per game at home. With both teams making a lot of shot attempts and neither team having very good numbers defensively the over is the no brainer in this game. |
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02-26-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 211 | Top | 95-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* Total No Brainer Mavs/Bucks UNDER
Both teams are coming off home losses with Milwaukee losing to Atlanta as a -4.5 favorite and Dallas losing to the Lakers as a -3 point favorite. You should play the under in a game where the total is over 200 and both teams are off an upset loss as a favorite and at least one of those losses came as a home favorite. This system is 86-52 (62.3%) the last 138 times the situation has occurred. The under is 5-0-1 in Milwaukee |
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02-26-13 | Orlando Magic +10 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 98-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
4* No Limit on Orlando +
You should always play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia when they are off a loss against a division rival, with a win percentage between 40-49% on the season. This situation is 30-13 (69.8%) over the last five seasons. Losing teams like Philadelphia should not be big favorites against any team. You should also play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Orlando after 5 or more consecutive losses in the second half of the season. This situation is 46-22 (67.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The 76ers have also lost five consecutive games in the second half of the season so to be listed as such a heavy favorite makes Orlando the value play. The Magic are 9-4 ATS coming off a double digit loss at home and playing on two days of rest compared to one day for Philadelphia. This late in the season taking the points on a team that has more rest in a game involving two equally bad teams is the smart move. |
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02-25-13 | Boston Celtics v. Utah Jazz -7 | 110-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Utah -
This will be the fifth road game in the last seven days for the Celtics who are playing a back to back game coming from Portland. Boston has lost three out of four on this road stretch and things will not get any easier when they face a Utah team that has the best home court advantage in the league. The Jazz are 17-10 ATS when playing at home and 21-6 straight up. They average 100.9 points per game and 46.4% shooting from the field at Energy Solutions Arena. The Jazz have been hot lately winning three of their last four games. Playing on an extra day of rest over the Celtics should allow them to bounce back from their off night against the Clippers. Utah is 23-10 ATS over the last two seasons when they are playing in a home game and coming off a game they failed to cover the spread. They are also 10-2 ATS in home games after playing as a road underdog this season. The Celtics got hot after Rondo went out with an injury but teams have adjusted their game plan against Boston and they are really struggling right now losing three of their last five games. Any road game in the NBA is tough, but with the Celtics playing in their now fifth consecutive game on the road and playing in a back to back situation, things have lined up for the Jazz to get an easy win on their home court. |
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02-24-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 196 | 72-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
4* TOTAL DOMINATOR on Bulls/Thunder UNDER
You should play the under on a game where one team, Chicago, has allowed 90 points or less in three straight games is playing against an opponent, Oklahoma City, scoring 100 points or more in three straight games. This trend is 28-8 (77.8%) over the last 5 seasons. Chicago is also 23-11 to the under versus good teams that are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game over the last 2 seasons. |
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02-24-13 | Boston Celtics v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Portland -
The Celtics are 9-17 on the road and play a Portland team that is 17-9 on their home court. Boston is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning home record. They are also 6-13 in their last 19 games on the road. This is the fourth road game in six days for Boston. The Trailblazers are a well-rested team playing their third game in the last seven days. In the second half of the season those extra days of rest can be huge difference makers for teams. The Portland defense has been improving forcing 16.5 turnovers in their last two games while scoring 102.5 points per game in that same span. The home team laying such a small number is the value play in this matchup. |
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02-24-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers +12.5 v. Miami Heat | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland +
Cleveland has played well against Southeast division opponents with a 10-1 ATS record in their last 11. The Cavaliers are also 18-8 ATS over the last two seasons in the second leg of back to back road games and this young team is improving every night as the season progresses. The Cavaliers are playing well right now having won two of their last three games. The loss in that span came by one point against San Antonio in a great game. Their recent success is due in large part to the lack of turnovers. They have averaged 9.3 turnovers per game in their last three outings. Miami has played well recently, but they are trending in the wrong direction statistically and it may catch up with them tonight. They average just 41 rebounds per game and had 17 turnovers in their game against Chicago last Thursday. Miami is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against Central division opponents and they are laying too many points tonight. |
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02-24-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Miami Heat UNDER 204.5 | 105-109 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
5* NO BRAINER on Cleveland/Miami UNDER
Always play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points in a game involving a team like Miami that is outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game and playing against an opponent coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This system is 58-30 (65.9%) over the last 5 seasons. Miami is also 13-4 to the under in home games when playing their third game in four days over the last two seasons. |
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02-23-13 | Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 | 103-102 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
3* BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Milwaukee -
The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against Central division teams and 1-4 in their last five against teams in the Eastern Conference. They average just 9 offensive rebounds per game when playing on the road and have done a horrible job of forcing turnovers. Their free throw shooting has been abysmal, averaging just 70.6% when playing away from home. Atlanta has not done well against teams that attempt a lot of three point shots. They are 11-21 ATS against teams attempting 18 or more from beyond the three point line and they have allowed 39.8% of those shots to go in when playing on the road. Their soft defense against the three ball provides a great opportunity for Milwaukee to pick up a big win on their home court tonight. |
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02-23-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 v. Orlando Magic | 118-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NO BRAINER on Cleveland +
Cleveland is not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers right now. The Cavs have covered the number in five of their last seven games and now face an Orlando team that has been beat up with injuries this season. The Cavaliers are a young team that is improving as the season progresses. They are 15-12 ATS on the road compared to Orlando who is 8-19 ATS on their home court. The Magic are allowing 99.4 points per game and have struggled on the boards, particularly on the offensive end, which is a big contributing factor to their failure of a season. Cleveland has played Southeast division teams well and it has earned them a 9-1 ATS record in the process. Orlando has lost 15 of their last 16 games and Cleveland has been heating up winning 7 of their last 12 games coming into this matchup. The Cavaliers are also playing on two days rest while Orlando is coming off a road came at Memphis last night. |
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02-22-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves v. Oklahoma City Thunder -13 | 111-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
3* No Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -
The Timberwolves are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against teams from the Northwest division. They are allowing opponents over 100 points per game in division games and giving up almost 50% shooting from the field when playing on the road. The Oklahoma City Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games overall. The Thunder are coming off three consecutive straight up and ATS losses and they should take out those frustrations on this horrible Timberwolves team. Head Coach Scott Brooks is 40-21 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of the Thunder. Minnesota has not been the same since they lost Kevin Love and this game should be ugly when the Timberwolves face one of the best teams in the league. |
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02-22-13 | Houston Rockets v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5 | 106-96 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Brooklyn Nets -
Brooklyn is the hot team coming into this game with a four game win streak. The Nets are 13-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins and will try to keep that momentum alive against the Houston Rockets today. Deron Williams is playing well coming off a 23 point performance with eight assists to help the Nets come back from 15 points down against Milwaukee. Houston |
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02-22-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Bobcats +7 | 105-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
3* Oddsmakers Error on Charlotte Bobcats +
The Bulls have not performed well against Southeast division teams. They have a 3-9 ATS record in their last 12 games against the Southeast and a 3-9 ATS record in their last 12 vs a team with a losing record. It is best to play against a team like Chicago when they are off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. This trend is 112-72 (60.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. When that team is playing on the road in their next game the trend tightest up to 62-33 (65.3%) over that same time span. The Bulls are 3-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and they seem to be in some kind of a funk right now. They have lost five of their last seven games and have played eight of their last 10 games on the road. That much travel in a short span of time appears to be taking its toll on Chicago making the Bobcats the value play in this game. |
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02-21-13 | Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 186.5 | 86-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
3* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Heat/Bulls UNDER
Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team like Chicago who is winning 51-60% of their games and playing 3 or less games in 10 days and facing a winning team. This system has gone under the total in 30 of the last 41 games during the last five seasons. Chicago is 8-0 to the under in home games against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game this season. They are also 21-6 favoring the under in games against Southeast division teams over the last two seasons. The Bulls defense has been remarkable at home holding opponents to 88.9 points per game and only 41.1% shooting. The offense shoots only 42.8% in home games and with those to factors combined all signs point to a low scoring game tonight. |
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02-20-13 | Boston Celtics v. Los Angeles Lakers -7 | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
3* Main Event on Los Angeles Lakers -
This is game two of a five game road stretch for the Celtics. If their game against Denver is any indicator this could be an ugly run for Boston fans. Boston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss while the Lakers are 5-1 in their last six following a loss of more than 10 points. Boston is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games and playing in Los Angeles is going to be tough. The Lakers are playing on five days of rest compared to the Celtics who just played on the road in Denver last night. This late in the season teams are starting to get tired and traveling for back to back road games will take its toll on the Celtics in this matchup. |
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02-20-13 | Orlando Magic v. Dallas Mavericks -10.5 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
3* Bailout Blowout on Dallas Mavericks -
The Magic are a team that relies on turnovers to play in close games. With a 15-38 record this season it is obvious they lack the talent it takes to win without forcing turnovers. Orlando is 6-17 ATS versus good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game this season. The Mavericks are the hot team right now as they attempt to make a late season rally towards the playoffs. They have won three of their last four games and the offense is averaging 111.25 points per game in that span. The Magic have lost eight consecutive games on the road and their defense has been horrible. They gave up 119 points against Cleveland, 107 points against Milwaukee and were beat by 17 points against Philadelphia in their last three road games. The Mavericks are hungry for a playoff berth and should have no problem handling Orlando tonight. |
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02-20-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Houston Rockets UNDER 219.5 | 119-122 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
4* TOTAL ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Thunder UNDER
The value in this game is on the under as the oddsmakers have set this total a little too high. Always play the under when there is an extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days like Houston, and they are winning between 51-60% of their games in a matchup against another winning team. This system is 153-103 ATS for the last five seasons. Oklahoma City is 19-9 to the under off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons while Houston is 33-14 to the under in home games after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games since 1996. With Houston playing as a well rested team and being on their home court they should be able to control the tempo of this game. The Rockets know if they get into a shootout with the Thunder they will have no chance to win this game. Houston should be able to slow things down at least long enough to make the under the value play in this matchup. |
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02-20-13 | Miami Heat v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197.5 | 103-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER
The under is 18-7 in Miami's last 25 games and 17-6 in Atlanta |
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02-20-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 195 | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
3* Total No Brainer Bobcats/Pistons OVER
The Detroit Pistons are 25-13 to the over against teams being outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points per game over the last two seasons. That tightens up to 26-10 to the over when their opponent is outscored by 6 or more points per game. The over is also 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 games against a team with a losing record. It is the same story for Charlotte at 4-0 to the over against teams with a losing record. The Bobcats and Pistons have gone over the total four of the last five times these teams played in Charlotte. The Bobcats have allowed 102 points per game at home and they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.1% from beyond the three point line. They do not run a tight defense and they give up a lot of easy points. The Piston |
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02-19-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Portland Trail Blazers -6 | 102-98 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
3* BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Portland -
The extra rest from the all-star break is exactly what this Portland team needed. They had a poor finish to the first half of the season losing their last five games, but they should bounce back strong against a bad team tonight. The Suns are not a team that gets revenge from prior losses. Phoenix is 9-18 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent this season and they are 24-43 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last 3 seasons. Portland has played well at home this season with a 17-8 straight up record. Phoenix is 5-23 on the road. With the better team getting some much needed rest this game should be an easy home win for Portland. |
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02-19-13 | Chicago Bulls v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 181.5 | 96-87 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
3* TOTAL NO BRAINER Chicago/New Orleans UNDER
It is better to play the under in a game involving a team averaging 92-98 points per game like Chicago against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 points per game after 42 or more games and coming off a performance where they allowed 75 points or less. This trend is 93-49 since 1996. New Orleans plays better on defense when they are facing a team with a winning record on their home court and they are 22-11 to the under in that situation over the last two seasons. The Bulls are a team that gets a lot of their points off of turnovers and New Orleans averages just 13 turnovers per game at home this season. The Bulls are 60-38 to the under against good ball handling teams like New Orleans in the 2nd half of the season over the last three seasons and with both teams having some extra rest from the NBA all-star break this game should be a defensive battle. |
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02-19-13 | Memphis Grizzlies -2 v. Detroit Pistons | 105-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
3* MAIN EVENT on Memphis -
The Memphis Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference opponents while the Detroit Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference teams. The Pistons are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pistons are barely over .500 on their home court and have a losing ATS record when playing in Detroit. They are a poor free throw shooting team making 68.9% of their attempts at home. Memphis has been hot on offense averaging 104 PPG in their last three grams and 98.8 PPG in their last five. This matchup falls into a system to play on a road favorite like Memphis after they have gone over the total by 42 points or more in their last five games and they have a winning record on the season. This system is 102-57 ATS over the last five seasons. |
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02-19-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Orlando Magic OVER 196.5 | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
4* TOTAL DOMINATOR Charlotte/Orlando OVER
This matchup falls into a system to play on the over where the total is between 190-199.5 points in a game involving two poor defensive teams that allow 45.5-47.5% shooting and two average rebounding teams after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 208-140 since 1996. This game also falls into a system to play the over when one of the teams is off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival when the opponent is off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points. Both Charlotte and Orlando scored less than 80 points in their last game and suffered embarrassing losses with Charlotte losing to Indiana and Orlando losing to Atlanta. This system is 31-5 ATS since 1996. The Magic are not a team that gets to the foul line very often and the Bobcats are 13-5 to the over versus teams attempting 21 or less free throws per game this season. The Bobcats average 20 fouls per game on the road so they are obviously giving up a lot of easy baskets. Orlando is 22-11 to the over versus teams who average 21 or less fouls per game this season. |
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02-14-13 | Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 | 110-100 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
3* Marquee Mismatch on Oklahoma City -
I expect Oklahoma City to get some revenge here tonight to close out their first half. The Thunder will be highly motivated to prove to themselves and the rest of the league that they can compete with the Heat after losing to Miami not only in last year's finals, but also on Christmas day. The Heat come into this game an impressive 35-14 to lead the East, but they are just 12-11 on the road. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 39-13 and 23-3 at home. They are beating teams by 9.2 ppg, but when in OKC that number jumps even higher to 13.2. The way both of these teams played leading into the game also created us some value. Miami is on a six game winning streak and has won three straight at the pay window. They won their last four games by double digits, but those games came in South Florida. The Thunder on the other hand got caught looking past Utah to this game on Tuesday night and lost in Salt Lake, a notoriously difficult place to play. That loss also sets us up for a nice little situational play that says to take favorites who are outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game when they are coming off a blowout loss by 15 points or more. These teams are 86-48 (64.2%) over the last five seasons. |
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02-13-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Dallas Mavericks -10 | 100-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Mavs over Kings
This is a good matchup for Dallas over Sacramento. The Kings are terrible on the road at 5-21, losing by an average of 10.7 ppg. Dallas on the other hand is 14-10 at home and winning by 3.3 ppg. Sacramento is coming off a loss at Memphis last night and will be playing their fourth game in five nights tonight. With the All-Star break coming up, this is a prime situation for a bad team to look ahead to those precious days off. Every game is important right now for Dallas. They are 5.5 games out of the last spot in the playoff race, but have been playing better since getting Dirk back in the lineup, so they aren't out of it yet. If they don't make up some ground fast though Cuban might give up on the season and start looking to build for next year. I think the Mavs will be fully focused tonight to close out with a win before the break. Sacramento is just 5-16 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game over the second half of the last two seasons while Dallas is 8-0 ATS against up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game the second half of the last two years. |
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02-13-13 | Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves -2 | 97-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
3* ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Wolves over Jazz
The Jazz have been without Gordon Hayward since January 26th and they have gone an impressive 5-3 without him, but a closer look at those games show that Utah only had to play two games on the road during that stretch and they lost to Portland and the Kings. This might be a little bit of a letdown spot for Utah as they are coming off a big win against Oklahoma City last night in Salt Lake, and now have to travel to Minnesota and play a terrible team before the All-Star break. My feeling is they will be looking ahead. Minnesota should be focused after losing by 22 in Utah back on January 2nd. In that game they shot just 2-for-17 from 3-point range and 34.5% overall. Those numbers were an aberration and I expect them to normalize a little here tonight. Utah is a poor road team, going 9-18 away from home and losing by 5.3 ppg. Minnesota isn't a great team by any means, but they are 12-12 at home this year and winning by 1.8 ppg. There is some value with the home team here tonight. |
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02-13-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Brooklyn Nets -1.5 | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Nets over Nuggets
Denver is a solid team, checking into this game at 33-19 overall, but they have struggled on the road in going 11-16. The problem is the Nuggets score 8 ppg less on the road and they allow 3 ppg more. That's quite a difference and is a big reason I like the Nets tonight. Brooklyn hasn't played well lately, winning just four of their last 0 games, but a closer look at the schedule shows they played the role of an underdog in all but three of those games. It was a tough stretch to end the first half of the season and I think Brooklyn is going to be motivated to close out with a win. |
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02-12-13 | Houston Rockets +4.5 v. Golden State Warriors | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets +
This is too many points for the Rockets to be getting tonight at Golden State. I know that the Warriors are a better team than most people realize at 30-21, but their scoring margin is still only that of a .500 team at exactly 0. Houston on the other hand is 28-25 but is outscoring their opponents by 3 ppg so they are under-rated in my opinion. Houston lost last time out at Sacramento as a six point favorite, so I expect them to buckle down on the second game of their road trip. Golden State on the other hand has lost four in a row on the road and were soundly beaten in each of those games. It all started with a 31 point loss in Houston. The public seems to think NBA teams come out for revenge, but actually you want to play against home teams revenging a road blowout loss by 20 points or more against an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 121-71 (63%) since 1996. I'll take the points here tonight. |
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02-11-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Detroit Pistons -4.5 | 105-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
3* on Pistons -
This is a good matchup for Detroit. New Orleans is a team that plays terrible defense, allowing opponents to shoot 47.4% in their road games and 37.2% from behind the 3-point line. The Hornets also get a lot of their points from the perimeter, hitting 37.3% of their 3-point attempts. The Pistons though defend the three well, allowing opponents to hit just 32.8% from behind the arc. Detroit is also a solid shooting team at home, making 47% of their attempts and 37.3% of their 3's, so they should have no trouble scoring against the Hornets. Add in the fact that Detroit is 17-6 ATS at home against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the last two years and are 16-6 ATS against teams that allow 46% or more from the field and you can see why Detroit is the obvious play. |
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02-11-13 | Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 | 91-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Charlotte +
Boston is a hot team, you can't argue that. Ever since Rajon Rondo went down this team has won six in a row and covered in each. However, this is a tough spot for them as they have played a tough stretch of games. They went back-to-back against Toronto and LA then had a couple of days of before yesterday's triple overtime thriller against the Nuggets. This is a little big of a letdown spot for the Celtics as they will be forcing a poor team a day after their "old guys," Pierce played 54 minutes, Garnett 47, and Terry 42. Charlotte has been struggling but even though they didn't cover their last two games, they were close. They lost to the Lakers by 7 as 6.5 point underdogs and they lost by 11 to the Sixers as 10 point dogs. This is their last home game before the All-Star break so I think they will bring a little something extra to try and pick up the win. Since Boston is just 8-14 this year away from home, losing by almost six points per game, I think there is a good chance they do just that. You want to take home underdogs who have failed to cover four of their last five games against an opponent that has covered six or seven of their last eight. These teams are 30-6 (83.3%) ATS the last five seasons. |
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02-11-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Philadelphia 76ers +5.5 | 107-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
3* on Sixers +
The Clippers got back on track with a win yesterday in New York over the Knicks, but now will be playing their third game in four nights as they face Philadelphia. LA also might be a little short-handed as Caron Butler left yesterday's game in the third quarter with a back injury, Chris Paul is still not at full strength, and Matt Barnes has a hurt finger that may have contributed to his poor shooting over the last few games. Philadelphia has now won four of their last five games both straight up and against the spread. They are playing fantastic defense in giving up under 40% in each of those games. Granted, none of those squads has the offensive firepower of the Clippers, but LA had lost four of five before yesterday's win and eight of their last 11. This clearly isn't the same team now as when everyone was 100%. This is Philadelphia's last home game before the All-Star break and I think they will keep this one close. |
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02-10-13 | Houston Rockets -5.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 111-117 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston -
Houston checks into this game scoring 106 points per contest while allowing only 102.9. Sacramento on the other hand is scoring 97.4 ppg while giving up 103.1. The difference in scoring margin alone strongly favors Houston, but the fact that the Kings can't stop anyone makes me love the high scoring Rockets. Houston has now covered in seven of their last eight games wight heir only two straight up losses coming on the road against Denver and Miami. They haven't shot under 48% once during that stretch and they are coming off a 59.% shooting performance against Portland on Friday night. Sacramento looked good last night against Utah, but the team had four days rest prior to that contest and was playing in a quick revenge spot with their previous game being a loss to the Jazz on the road. This was a team that had lost eight of their last nine before lsat night. They had given up over 52.8% in three of their last four games, which doesn't bode well when facing one of the best shooting teams in the league. You want to take road teams that score 102+ ppg when playing a team that gives up 102+ ppg after 42 games. This situ ion is 162-99 (62.1%) since 1996. |
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02-09-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Dallas Mavericks -5.5 | 91-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Dallas -
This is a tough scheduling spot for the Warriors. This will be their fourth road game in five nights, and so far the road trip has been a disaster. It started with a 140-109 loss to Houston, followed by a 119-98 beating by the Thunder. Last night didn't get much better as Golden State lost by six in Memphis. Now, the Warriors get to face a Mavs team that has turned the corner. Dirk Nowitzki missed the first part of the season and Dallas struggled. He came back on 12/23 but took awhile to get back into the swing of things. I'd say since about the start of the year he's came into form, so it's no surprise that the Mavs have won 8 of 13 straight up but an even more impressive 12 of 14 at the pay window. They have had a couple of days off since their home win over Portland to prepare for tonight's game, so I think they win big over Golden State and get their revenge for the close loss from a week and a half ago. You want to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are playing their second game in five days against a team playing their 4th in five. These teams are 78-40 (66.1%) since 1996 and when they are at home they are 33-9 (78.6%) the last five seasons. |
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02-09-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 215 | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
3* on Denver/Cleveland OVER
Can the Nuggets offense be stopped? They have put up 112 or more points in their last four games and haven't scored under 100 since back on January 16th. Surprisingly, the Cavs have turned into an offensive juggernaut lately as well. Cleveland has put up 115 or more points in their last three games. With those kinds of offensive numbers it's no surprise both teams have gone OVER in five straight games. You want to take the OVER when one team went OVER by 18 in their previous game and they are taking on an opponent that went OVER by 24 in their last game. This situation is 355-241 (59.6%) since 1996. If the total for the current game is over 200 then that number jumped to 147-90 (62%). This is one of the highest totals set so far this season and when the total is set above 212, the OVER has gone 12-4. Both of these teams give up over 100 ppg and with both offenses clicking, this one should go over easy. |
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02-08-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Atlanta Hawks -4.5 | 111-100 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
3* on Hawks -
New Orleans is in a tough spot here tonight. This is a team that was on a five game road tip before making a quick one game stop in New Orleans before heading to the road again for a three game swing. The road trip wasn't kind to the Hornets as they lost four straight, mainly due to a defense that allowed opponents to shoot 49.4% or better in each game. The Hornets did manage to beat the lowly Suns on Wednesday night, but that isn't impressive with how bad Phoenix is this year. Atlanta got back on track Wednesday night with a double digit home win over the Memphis Grizzlies in which they shot 51.4%. Figuring how much tougher the Grizzlies defense is than the Hornets has been of late, I think they should easily be able to put points on the board here tonight. Atlanta is a much better team at home than they are on the road, going 17-8 and winning by 3 ppg. This is their last home game before the All-Star break, and I think they are going to bring it in order to end the first half of their season on a good note. I'll lay the small number. |
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02-08-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Washington Wizards +1 | 74-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Washington Wizards +
The Nets roll into this game at 29-20 while the Wizards are only 13-35, but Washington has really buckled down against good teams this year, going 16-7 ATS versus teams with a winning record. Plus they are 15-5 ATS against teams who have won between 51%-60% of their games the last two years. Washington has been a different team since getting John Wall back. The Wizards are 9-7 over their last 16 games after starting the year just 4-28 and the odds makers haven't really caught up to how much better this team is as evidenced by their 13-3 ATS record during that stretch. The Nets only beat the Wizards in Washington by two in one of Washington's last games before getting Wall back, and I don't think they are going to pick up another win tonight with him in the lineup. Brooklyn likes to shoot the three, hoisting 22 shots per game behind the arc, but they only make 34.8% of those attempts while their opponents normally allow 35.4%. This plays right into the Wizards strength as they are 23-11 ATS this year against opponents who attempt 18 or more 3's per game this year. Mainly, it's because they have held opponents shooting 36% from deep to only hit 34.3% against them. |
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02-07-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Denver Nuggets -6 | 96-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Denver Nuggets -
Denver's offense is clicking on all cylinders and I don't expect the Bulls to be able to keep up with the pace. The Nuggets have broken the 100 point barrier in eight straight games and haven't scored less than 97 since New Year's Day. Chicago on the other hand has scored more than 100 only three times in their last ten, while being held to under 90 four times. You want to take favorites that score 102+ ppg when playing a team scoring less than 98 ppg after they have put up 110 or more in three straight games. These teams are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Nuggets enjoy one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, and they have continued that success this year by going 21-3 SU and 16-8 ATS. They are scoring 108.4 ppg while giving up 99.3 in Denver. Their main weakness is allowing opponents to shoot and make a lot of three point attempts, but that is definitely not a strong suit of the Bulls, especially without Kirk Heinrich. Denver is rolling and has the matchup advantage so I'll take the Nuggets tonight. |
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02-06-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Utah Jazz -5.5 | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
3* on Utah Jazz -
The Utah Jazz are one of the best home court advantage teams in the NBA and I don't think they are laying enough points to the Bucks here tonight. The Jazz are coming off a win at home against the Kings on Monday night, but they didn't manage to cover the 8.5 point spread. That puts them in bounce back mode where Utah is 21-10 ATS at home after failing to cover in their last game. Milwaukee is coming off a high scoring 112-104 loss at Denver last night. It was the fourth straight game the Bucks have dropped at the pay window, but it didn't really come as a surprise since they are 22-42 ATS in non-conference games the last three seasons. The no rest really seems to affect Milwaukee too as the Bucks are 10-23 ATS when playing on back-to-back days the last two years. Milwaukee is just 20-33 ATS when playing a team with a winning record but that number drops further to 1-12 ATS when playing a team with a winning record during the 2nd half of the last two seasons. I think Utah gets out in front early and pulls away tonight. |
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02-06-13 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 202 | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
5* TOTAL NO BRAINER on Mavs/Blazers UNDER
We are getting some value in this line tonight because Dallas has been so bad defensively on the year, giving up 103.1 ppg. They just gave up 112 points in a 21 point loss to Oklahoma City, but teams like Dallas normally buckle down on that end of the floor after a bad loss. You want to play on teams that are giving up 103+ ppg on the season after a blowout loss by 20 points or more. These teams go UNDER at a pace of 223-145 (60.6%) since 1996. Dallas is actually allowing 4 ppg less at home than they do on the road, and their 101 ppg in Dallas is a little inflated from playing the likes of Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver, and Houston in a good portion of those games. Portland isn't going to keep pace with those teams when they only score 94.1 ppg on the road for the season. These two teams have met twice this season and this is the highest total yet. Last time they faced each other Dallas shot 50% and 53.5% from behind the arc, both teams shot 78.3% or better from the line, and they only managed to score 210 points. In the first meeting Dallas shot 61.5% from the floor and 50% from the 3-point line and scored 114. I don't think you can expect out of this world shooting numbers a third time in a row. |
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02-06-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Oklahoma City Thunder -10 | 98-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
3* on Oklahoma City Thunder -
Golden State is impressive this year with a 30-18 record but two things stand out to me. The first is that they are only outscoring opponents by one point per game, so that record seems a little inflated. The second is that this team is a lot better at home then they are on the road. Sure, the Warriors might be 14-12 as the visitor, but they are getting outscored by 2.2 ppg in those games. Oklahoma City is a dominant team that isn't afraid to blow people out. They are scoring 108 ppg at home and giving up just 95.8 ppg for a 12.2 ppg margin. They shoot well from the floor and behind the arc, they get to the line, and shoot a high rate there. Plus, this team is in a revenge spot since they lost at Golden State back on 1/23 by five points. In that game the Thunder were coming off a back-to-back with the Clippers, now they are at home and the Warriors are coming off a back-to-back. I don't think the line has been adjusted enough, going from Thunder -1 to -10. You want to take favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points when they are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg after they have led the last three games by five or more at half when they are playing a team with a margin of +/-3. These teams are 70-34 67% ATS since 1996. |
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02-06-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Detroit Pistons -1.5 | 93-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
4* NBA HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
Brookyn is coming off a tough game last night in which they lost to the LA Lakers sans Dwight Howard. Now they must travel from Brooklyn over to Detroit on back-to-back nights to take on the Pistons. Detroit also lost to the Lakers recently without Howard, but it was by a single point. I like how these two teams matchup. The Nets might be a good team at 28-19 while Detroit is only 18-31, but Brooklyn wins by going to the free throw line where they make 75% of their foul shots and attempt two more per game than their opponents normally allow. However, Detroit doesn't foul that much and Brooklyn is 30-43 ATS against teams who are called for 21 fouls or less the last two seasons. The Nets only shoot 43.7% away from home yet they allow 48.4%. Detroit is shooting 47% on their home floor and allowing 43.7%. Since the Pistons are 16-5 ATS against teams allowing shooting percentages of 46% or more the last two seasons I think they can exploit this advantage. The Pistons are coming off a disappointing double digit loss at New York, but Detroit is 57-38 ATS after failing to cover the spread the last three years. I think they will bounce back again here tonight. |
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02-06-13 | Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers -5 | 95-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
3* on Cleveland Cavs -
The last time these two teams played Cleveland jumped out to a commanding 62-48 lead at half, only to almost let it slip away. The Cavs still came away with a two point win in Charlotte and I think how they played early was a sign on who has the most talent. I also like how these teams matchup. Cleveland allows opponents to shoot 37.6% from behind the 3-point arc, but Charlotte doesn't shoot a lot of threes, averaging four less per game than their opponents normally allow. On the other hand, Charlotte allows 38.8% 3-point shooting and for their opponents to take 4 more per game than usual. That's a big disadvantage and a big reason why this team is 12-22 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-point attempts this season. The Cavs might allow their opponents to shoot at a high rate too, but the Bobcats 3-15 ATS against teams that allow opponents to hit more than 46% the last two years. Charlotte played well the last time out, losing by five points to the Heat in Miami and covering the 14 point spread, but this team has some glaring problems. They have allowed their last three opponents to all shoot over 50% from the floor and they have done a terrible job on the glass. The previous matchup and recent play by the Bobcats actually sets us up for a nice little system. You want to fade underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a straight up loss v. an opponent as a favorite, off a game in which the team covered but lost. This situation is 99-50 (66.4%) ATS since 1996. |
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02-05-13 | Atlanta Hawks +5 v. Indiana Pacers | 103-114 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Atlanta Hawks +
I think we are getting a little bit of value with the Hawks here tonight. One reason is due to their ugly loss yet again to Chicago. Atlanta scored only 76 points and lost by 17 at home, but they have had a couple of days off to work on areas of concern and prepare for Indiana. The Pacers on the other hand are coming off a few big wins. They beat Detroit at home by 19 points, then the Heat by 13. Last night they hosted the same Chicago Bulls the Hawks just got embarrassed by and won by 10 points. Indiana has now covered four straight and the public is going to be jumping on their bandwagon tonight against a Hawks team that hasn't covered in two straight. However, with the Pacers are playing their fourth home game in a row Frank Vogel is just 8-24 ATS after playing two straight home games and he is 11-25 ATS after covering two or more in a row as the coach of Indiana. How these teams have played recently also fits a nice little trend. You want to play against home teams off two straight double digit wins playing an opponent coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. Fading these teams would have gone 36-14 (72%) over the last five years. |
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02-04-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz UNDER 199.5 | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
4* on the Kings/Jazz UNDER
This total has been set too high tonight. Sacramento is in a serious offensive funk right now. The Kings have scored 81 points or less in each of their last three games and haven't topped the century mark in seven straight outings. Utah hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. Utah has scored 100 points or less in five of their last seven and are averaging just 96.6 ppg over their last five. The UNDER is 11-4 in Utah's last 15 home games vs a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 12-3 in the Kings last 15 games following a game where they allowed 110 points or more. |
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02-04-13 | Charlotte Bobcats +13 v. Miami Heat | 94-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
3* on Charlotte Bobcats + over Miami Heat
The Bobcats are showing some solid value as a double-digit underdog against Miami tonight. The Heat are in a pretty big letdown spot. Miami is playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and their third game in four days. Hard to see them giving max effort on either side of the ball when they know they can win this game without really trying. While Miami won't be taking this game seriously, the Bobcats will be motivated to play well against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Look for Charlotte to be the more aggressive team and keep this game much closer than expected. This play is backed by a proven system. Favorites of 10+ points who are strong offensive teams, scoring 99+ pp, after a game in which they allowed 85 points or less, are just 96-151 ATS since 1996! |
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02-04-13 | Los Angeles Clippers v. Washington Wizards +3.5 | 90-98 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
3* on Washington Wizards + over the LA Clippers
Los Angeles is really struggling without Chris Paul. They have lost six of eight, including a 25-pt loss at Toronto Friday. The Clippers followed that up with a 104-106 loss at Boston yesterday. Now they must go to Washington on no rest and take on a much-improved Wizards team. Washington comes in having lost four straight, but they did manage to cover the spread in their most recent defeat at San Antonio. The Wizards are a dominant 11-3 ATS over their last 14 games. Not only are the Clippers in a bad spot playing with no rest and without their star, but they just got done playing a very up-tempo game yesterday against the Celtics. Los Angeles is a miserable 4-14 ATS in road games after a road game where both teams scored a 100 or more points during the last 3 seasons. The other key here is that the Wizards have been playing much better at home. Washington is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. |
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02-03-13 | Los Angeles Clippers -1 v. Boston Celtics | 104-106 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on LA Clippers -
Two teams that are dealing with injuries to their star point guards face off early on Sunday, and I like the Clippers to come out on top. LA was whooped last time out against Toronto by 25 points, and I think that got their attention back to focus on finishing this eight game road trip on a positive note. Boston has won three in a row since losing Rondo for the season, but after the big win last Sunday over Miami the Celtics beat up on the Kings and the Magic, not two teams I'm impressed with them beating. LA destroyed Boston at home back on December 27th, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Celtics will get their revenge. You want to play against home teams off a 20 point loss the last time the two teams met when their opponent is coming off a loss in their last game. This situation is 120-70 (63.2%) since 1996. You also want to fade home teams off two straight double digit wins against an opponent coming off a game in which they scored less than 85 points. This situation is 36-12 (75%) the last five seasons. You wan tot take teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg when they are coming off a 15+ point loss. These teams are 115-70 (62.2%) the following game. I'll lay the small number as I think LA picks up the win in Boston. |
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02-02-13 | Utah Jazz v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 193 | 99-105 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
4* Blazers/Jazz UNDER
Hard not to like the Jazz and Blazers to go UNDER again tonight with the total just slightly lower than last night's. Portland and Utah played a very low scoring game in which the Jazz won 86-77 on their home floor. Now they travel up to Portland for a quick rubber match, and there isn't time to make offensive adjustments to change anything. Portland shot just 36.7% from the floor while the Jazz only managed 43.2%. Utah was just 4-for-15 from behind the 3-point arc while the Blazers were 7-for-20. Portland managed just one quarter of more than 20 points, while the Jazz only managed 13 points in the final frame. With two teams that are fighting for playoff spots against each other, I think the intensity will be there tonight and we are in for another low scoring affair. |
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02-02-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 187.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Timberwolves/Hornets OVER
Minnesota has been playing some high scoring games lately. Both them and their opponents have scored 100+ in three of the last four games, including lats night's 100-111 loss to the LA Lakers. Minnesota is typically a low scoring team, but obviously they are pushing the tempo a little bit here recently. Plus, the Wolves are 13-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record this year. New Orleans has now allowed 100 or more points in seven of their last eight games after last night's 98-113 loss to Denver. They are 15-7 OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 this season and 12-3 OVER when playing a team with a losing record. These two teams have met twice already this year with final scores of 113-102 and 92-104, both well over today's total. I just can't see these two teams deciding today is the day they want to play defense, so I think you'll see another final score in the 190's or even higher. A solid system supports our play that says to take the OVER when the total is between 180-189.5 and one tam is off a road loss by 10 points or more and playing their 3rd game in four nights. The OVER is 114-75 (60.3%) in this situation the last five years. |
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02-02-13 | Sacramento Kings v. New York Knicks UNDER 202.5 | 81-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
4* on Kings/Knicks UNDER
The Kings are scoring just 91.7 ppg on the road and they actually give up 1.5 ppg less away from home too. The Knicks are a good defensive team that allows just 95.4 ppg at the Garden. Sacramento hasn't scored more than 96 points since back on January 21st and is doing off back-to-back 81 and 80 point performances. The Knicks stopped the Milwaukee offense dead in it's tracks last night, giving up just 86 points on 39.8% shooting to the Bucks. New York has now held seven of their last eight opponents to 97 or less points. You want to take the UNDER when the total is between 200-209.5 when a team is revering a loss as a favorite and that team has won 60% or more of their games on the season. The UNDER is 193-128 (60.1%) in this situation since 1996. You also want to take the UNDER in non-conference games when a team went under the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 58-19 (75.3%) the last five years in this situation. |
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02-02-13 | Chicago Bulls v. Atlanta Hawks -6.5 | Top | 93-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
5* EASTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Hawks -
The Bulls are expected to be without Carlos Boozer today due to a hamstring injury, Kirk Hinrich to an arm injury, and Joakim Noah due to plant fascilitis. The injuries to those two forced Deng and Gibson to play all 48 minutes last night plus Robison and Butler both logged 40+. Now the Bulls have to fly down to Atlanta to face the Hawks on no rest and when you are banged up and playing on no rest that is a recipe for disaster. You think Atlanta isn't going to be up for this game? The Hawks were embarrassed by the Bulls last time these two teams faced each other on January 14th. The Hawks scored only 58 points and lost by 39 points. This team has played a lot better since then and has won four of their last five games, the only loss was by two points in New York v. the Knicks. I don't think Atlanta is going to take their foot off the gas tonight. This team will go all out for 48 minutes trying to embarrass Chicago like what happened to them last time. With Chicago so short-handed, this one has blowout written all over it. |
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02-01-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Denver Nuggets OVER 203.5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
3* on Hornets/Nuggets OVER
There is some solid value with this line here tonight. New Orleans is averaging 93.6 ppg and only giving up 97.4, but if you look at their road splits those numbers jump up to 96.4 and 99.3. Not only that but this team has given up 100 or more points in six of their last seven games. Now they take on one of the best scoring teams in the league, especially at home where the Nuggets are putting up 108 ppg on 47.5% shooting. Since New Orleans allows 46.7% from the floor that's not good news for them. Denver has scored 102 or more points in six straight games and Indiana was the team they put up 102 against, a lot better defense than they will face tonight. This one is going to be high scoring so take the OVER. |
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02-01-13 | Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 76-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA NO DOUBT ATS ROUT on Washington +6.5
I'll take the upstart Wizards tonight taking on a Memphis team in disarray. The Grizzlies had to get under the salary cap so traded Rudy Gay to Toronto. This team looked great at the start of the season and hopes were high they could make a serious playoff push. Then the trade rumors began and finally concluded with Gay being shipped out of town. Last night the team played in Oklahoma City and was beat up by 17 points. Now, they have to travel home on short rest to take on Washington. The Wizards are an under-valued team that recently won 10 straight games against the spread before back-to-back losses to the Kings and Sixers. Now it seems everyone is off their band wagon again and they are showing some value tonight. The Wizards are 7-5 over their last 12 games and it's no surprise why. John Wall returned 11 games ago and has provided this team a spark. He's average 6.5 assists per game and 14.1 ppg. You have two teams heading in opposite directions here tonight. Ride the team on the way up as Memphis will continue to struggle. You don't ever mess with the chemistry of a contender, as the Grizzlies are going to learn the hard way. |
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02-01-13 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 183 | Top | 89-102 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Pre-All Star TOTAL of the YEAR on Heat/Pacers UNDER
This should be a defensive battle tonight and I love the UNDER in a big way. Miami is coming off a 105-85 win at Brooklyn while the Pacers are coming off a 98-79 win over Detroit. Both teams played solid defense and I expect that to continue here tonight. Plus, that sets us up for a nice situation where you want to play the UNDER when a team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent of a blowout of 20 points or more. The UNDER is 202-132 (60.5%) in this situation since 1996. Where the total is 180-189.5 and a team that scores 99+ ppg is off a blowout win by 20 or more like Miami is, the UNDER is 105-57 (64.8%) since 1996. When teams play hard it normally leads to lower scoring games. When do teams play their hardest? Against other good teams and when the national spotlight is on them. Tonight this game will be on ESPN and both teams clock in with good records, Miami is 29-13 and Indiana is 27-19. Both want to make a statement to their opponents. Miami wants to show Indiana they aren't in their league while the Pacers want to prove they are. When you get two good teams playing on Friday nights the UNDER is 149-99 (60.1%) the last five seasons. The Pacers are allowing teams that score 97.3 ppg to put up only 86.7 ppg against them at home. Indiana is scoring only 91.8 ppg on the year against teams that allow 95 ppg. Miami on the other hand is way better at home than on the road. Away from South Beach this team is scoring 98.6 ppg against opponents scoring 97.7 but they are holding opponents to just under their season average. These two teams met in Indiana back on January 8th and the final score was 87-77 Indiana. I think the Pacers are going to slow this game way down again, and both teams take defense seriously. Points will be at a premium tonight as this game stays way under the total. |
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01-31-13 | Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 206 | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
5* Thursday Night Total of the Month on Warriors/Mavs UNDER
Dallas has scored 104 or more points in nine straight games now and with Golden State's history of high scoring games we have a lot of value in the UNDER here tonight. Dallas has gone OVER in five straight games while Golden State has gone OVER in four in a row. To see how much padding that gives us here tonight you only have to go back to the last time these two teams met, when the total was set at 200. Six points is quite a jump for a same-season rematch game, and it's too much. Jackson has instilled a defensive philosophy into his young Warrior team. They are actually holding opponents to just 96.6 ppg at home this year, below their opponents average of 97.8 ppg. They are doing it by holding them to 42.1% from the floor and 30.9% from the 3-point line. The Warriors are a team that haven't had a lot of national TV exposure over the past few years, and I think these players are going to relish the chance to shine on TNT tonight. They will bring an all-out intensity on the defensive end of the floor and keep this score low. Take the UNDER! |
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01-30-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Phoenix Suns +3 | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
3* on Phoenix Suns +
Now that the Lakers have won three straight games everyone is jumping back on the wagon, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. All three of LA's win came at home, but now they must take to the road again where they are just 5-15 on the year. Last night they played a feisty Hornets team at home and it took everything they had to hold off New Orleans and pick up the win. Now this old team has to take to the road on back-to-back nights and I think it's going to affect them more than oddsmakers think. Phoenix isn't a very good team but at home they have been more than respectable in going 11-11. They lost their last two games fairly badly, but those two games were played outside the state of Arizona. I like the Suns catching points against a sub. 500 team that is playing on no rest, especially when that team is older like the Lakers and might have more troubles with no rest than others. |
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01-30-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Utah Jazz -7.5 | 99-104 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
3* on Utah Jazz -
I like the Jazz to bounce back tonight after their embarrassing loss to Houston the other night by 45 points. It was the worst home loss in franchise history and you can bet the team will be motivated to come out and wash that bad taste out of their mouths against the Hornets. Since Utah was on a six game home winning streak before that game and they have a very strong historical home court advantage I think that was an outlier more than the start of a trend. New Orleans on the other hand has been playing well, but will come into this game off a back-to-back. Not only was that game hard fought, but it was against one of the league's marquee teams in the Lakers. New Orleans gave that game all they had and still came away with the loss. Now they have to continue their road trip in a hostile environment playing a team that is fighting for one of the last spots in the Western Conference playoff race. I'll lay the number here as I think Utah wins by double digits. |
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01-30-13 | Chicago Bulls -1.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 104-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are out for some double revenge here tonight as Milwaukee has came into Chicago twice this year and pulled off the victory. You can bet Chicago is going to want to make a statement as to who the team to beat in the Central division is here tonight. Milwaukee is off a win last night in Detroit and is coming back for a back-to-back on their home floor, while Chicago has had a night off since their easy win over Charlotte so the rest factor is also with the Bulls. The Bucks have been hot lately winning five of six and are now just 2.5 games behind Chicago in the Central division race. You can bet they have the Bulls full attention and tonight Chicago is going to want to win this one badly to show everyone this is their division. A matchup advantage can be found at the free throw line, where Chicago is better than the league average at getting to the stripe and they hit 78% of their attempts. Milwaukee fouls more than most teams do so Chicago should get a chance at plenty of free ones here tonight. Take the Bulls as they pick up the win in Milwaukee. |
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01-29-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons | 117-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Detroit Pistons -
The Bucks are on a bit of a roll in winning four of their last five and seven of ten since canning Scott Skiles, but I think they are in a bad spot here tonight. The Pistons have been playing pretty well lately themselves, covering four of their last five games and they have won their last two home games by 15 points each. The Bucks are over-valued a little bit because they have a decent record at 23-19, but they are actually getting outscored by their opponents. Detroit on the other hand is 17-27 but is only getting outscored by one ppg so I think they are better than their wins and losses reflect. Milwaukee has to take to the road tomorrow night and face the Chicago Bulls. Now that they have played themselves into the playoff picture I'm sure the players might be looking ahead against a tougher opponent and might just slip up tonight in Detroit. I'll back the home team. |
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01-29-13 | Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has been paying excellent basketball lately, winning three in a row as outright underdogs of four points or more. Now they are an underdog at home again versus a Golden State team that is playing their fourth game in five nights. Golden State might appear to be a good road team with their 13-11 record and their win in Toronto last night, but this team is giving up 102.3 ppg away from home and only scoring 100.7. That's not the margin of a winning team, rather a losing one. The Warriors are 54-81 ATS on the road after scoring 110 or more points and 78-107 ATS on the road after playing as a favorite since 1996. The Cavs keep their streak alive and pull off another upset win here at home. |
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01-28-13 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz OVER 207.5 | 125-80 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Total Dominator on Rockets/Jazz OVER
I think you are going to see a lot of points here tonight when the Utah Jazz host the Houston Rockets. Houston is putting up 104.4 ppg and allowing 102.9. Utah on the other hand is scoring 102.2 ppg at home and giving up 98.7 ppg overall. The Rockets finally got their mojo back last game against the Brooklyn Nets in a 119-106 win with a posted total of just 200. Even though the Jazz went into overtime Saturday against the Pacers, that final was 114-110 after being tied at 98 after 48 minutes despite a total posted of just 183. These two teams met back on December 1st and played to a final score of 124-116 and I can see something similar happening here tonight. With the way these two teams played last time out and the short amount of rest not allowing for practice time to shore things up on defense or for the teams to lose their shooting confidence, I'll take the OVER. The Rockets are 15-7 OVER when playing a team with a winning record this season while Utah is 12-2 OVER revenging a loss where an opponent scored over 100 this year. |
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01-28-13 | Sacramento Kings +8 v. Washington Wizards | 96-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on Sacramento Kings +
The oddsmakers are overvaluing the Washington Wizards tonight in this spot. The Wizards have won 10 straight games against the spread and five upset wins during that stretch. The Kings on the other hand have lost four straight both straight up and against the spread so are out of favor with oddsmakers and the public alike. However, you want to fade home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after they have beat the spread by 18 or more total points in their last three games against opponents who were beaten by the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. This system is 24-7 (77.4%) the last five seasons. Sacramento did beat Washington during their streak by one as a five point favorite, so they have had some recent success against this Wizards team. I think they keep it close again tonight and pick up the cover. |
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01-27-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Dallas Mavericks -7 | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
3* VEGAS INSIDER on Dallas -
The Phoenix Suns have been playing good basketball since making their coaching change, but this is a tough spot for them tonight. They played back-to-back games on Wednesday and Thursday, had Friday off before heading to San Antonio to take on the Spurs last night. Now they get Dallas on back-to-back off a tough loss to San Antonio. You want to take home favorites who are playing their second game in five days against a team who is playing their 4th in five. These teams are 32-9 (78%) ATS the last five years. Dallas has been playing extremely well lately. They have won five of seven, but have covered in seven of their last eight. They have scored more than 103 points in eight straight games. Phoenix on the other hand has broken the century mark just once in 2013. I think the Mavs have more offensive firepower and they blow the Suns out by double digits here today. |
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01-26-13 | Indiana Pacers +2.5 v. Utah Jazz | 110-114 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
3* on Indiana Pacers +
This is a good spot to take Indiana here tonight. The Pacers are off a disappointing 20 point loss at Portland on Wednesday but had a couple of days to rest up and prepare for Utah here tonight. Utah on the other hand is playing their third game in four nights and is coming off a back-to-back. They lost badly to the Lakers last night in LA and now have to travel back home to face an angry Indiana team. The Pacers are also the better team in my mind. They are outscoring opponents by nearly two points per game and even though Utah's record stands at 23-19, they are dead even in scoring margin. You want to take road teams after being beaten by the spread by 18 points or more in their previous game, when they are a good team that has won 60%+ of their games on the season. These teams are 54-28 ATS in this situation the last five years. You also want to fade teams revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points against an opponent off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. These teams are 81-42 (65.9%) ATS the last five years. |
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01-26-13 | New York Knicks -3 v. Philadelphia 76ers | 80-97 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
3* on New York Knicks -
This is too small of a number for New York to be laying here tonight. The Knicks are 26-14 on the season and winning by 4.8 ppg while the Sixers are 17-25 on the year and losing by 4.2 ppg. New York has played well in winning three of their last four games, including a road win at Boston Thursday night. They were favored by -1.5 in that game and now lay only one point more against a worse team. The Sixers have lost eight of their last 10 with the two wins coming over Toronto and a Houston team that is slumping badly. Now they face a Knicks team that they have lost to by a combined 38 points in two games this season. I don't think now is the time they get back on track as I expect the Knicks to win handily here tonight. |
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01-25-13 | Utah Jazz +5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 84-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Utah Jazz +
The Lakers are not a good team right now and I've lost all confidence in them. Not only that but they are in a pretty bad rest situation. LA played three road games in four nights, then only had a day off before heading home to face the Jazz. Utah on the other hand is playing only their third game in 11 days and has won four in a row, six of seen, and eight of their last 10. Even though they aren't great on the road they have won three of their last five away from home. Everyone keeps thinking the Lakers are going to come around at some point, but this team just doesn't fit well together. Dwight Howard is back to his pouting ways and having Gasol play limited minutes off the bench is laughable. I'll keep fading them until they prove me wrong. A solid situation backs our play that says to fade teams out for double revenge that are off three or more straight road losses. This situation is 77-39 ATS (66.4%) over the last five seasons. |
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01-25-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings UNDER 209.5 | 105-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Kings UNDER
This is a pretty high number here tonight but I see some value with the UNDER. Oklahoma City has been scoring a lot of points lately, but cooled off a little against Golden State last time out. That loss is important to note because if you look at the teams last three losses, they dial up the defense in the next game. They held the 76ers to 85 points, Wolves to 84, and Clippers to 97 following their last three defeats. The Kings have had trouble scoring lately. They have scored 97 or less in four of their last five games, and only managed 69 against Memphis last Friday night. I think they will struggle to get points on the board against Oklahoma City again here tonight. A couple of situations support our play here tonight. One says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 one team is coming off an upset loss while the other is coming off an upset loss as a home favorite. This system is 85-52 (62%) for the UNDER since 1996. The other is to take the UNDER when the road team has a winning record and is playing on Friday night. This situation is 110-59 (67.4%) for the UNDER the last five seasons. |
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01-25-13 | Houston Rockets +3 v. New Orleans Hornets | 100-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
3* on Houston +
I've been burned the last two times out thinking the Rockets were going to come out of their funk, but I think tonight is the night they actually do so. These two teams met back on January 9th and Houston was a two point favorite down in New Orleans. Even though they lost the game, the line change shows you how much the odds makers have changed their outlook on these two teams and I think it's a little too drastic of a move in such a short period of time. New Orleans has played well lately, but they are still getting outscored by four ppg on the season compared to a Rockets team that is outscoring their opponents by one each time out. Even with the home court advantage that would leave this line to be closer to a Houston as a small favorite instead of a small underdog. |
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01-25-13 | Detroit Pistons v. Miami Heat -9.5 | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
3* on Miami Heat -
The Heat were a little rusty last time out, but came alive in the second half and overtime to beat the Toronto Raptors. It was understandable why Miami got off to such a slow start, they had five days rest coming into the game and were off a big win in LA over the Lakers. Detroit has been playing pretty well lately too, which is why they are over-valued here tonight. They have covered in three straight games, but will be playing their fourth contest in six nights, while this will only be Miami's second game in more than a week. The other aspect I like about this game is miami will be out for revenge. The Heat were six point favorites in Detroit just after Christmas and lost by ten to the Pistons. Don't think Detroit won't have Miami's full attention tonight, and that is scary if you are a Pistons fan. Lay the points here. |
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01-24-13 | New York Knicks -1 v. Boston Celtics | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on New York Knicks -
Boston is struggling again and I don't see them getting out of their funk tonight against New York. The Celtics have lost four in a row and they were favored to win each of those games. The last two weren't even really close and those losses came to Detroit and Cleveland due to them shooting below 40% from the field. New York comes into this game well rested due to their trip last Thursday to London, and you know the Knick players have had this circled since the last time these two teams played on January 7th. That is when Kevin Garnett supposedly said some out of line thing to Carmelo, and I have a feeling New York is going to rally around their star tonight and give this Celtic team some payback. I'll lay the small number and roll with the Knicks. |
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01-23-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Golden State Warriors +2 | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Golden State Warriors +
This is a tough situation for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they playing off a back-to-back, but they are coming off a big win over the LA Clippers, the team many think is their top competition for the Western Conference. Not only that, but they played an overtime game in Denver on Sunday and they will be playing their 7th game in 11 nights. The Warriors have looked tough in their last two games with Stephen Curry back at full strength. they played tough in San Antonio, then beat a hot Hornets team in New Orleans and then the Clippers. I don't think they are getting enough respect here tonight, especially with the rest situation factored in. I'll gladly take the Warriors in what should be an upset win. |
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01-23-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Houston Rockets -2 | 105-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
3* on Houston Rockets -
Houston ended their losing streak on Monday but they still haven't covered the last seven games. This has created some value here tonight as they should be laying more than a field goal on their home floor to the Denver Nuggets. Denver came into Houston earlier this year and upset the Rockets, I think these players will be out for revenge here tonight. Not only that, but the Rockets need a win here to make up some ground on Denver in the Western Conference playoff race. Denver is only 9-15 on the road this year as they have a significant home court advantage, but then struggle outside of Colorado. They are losing by 2.5 ppg, and this Rockets team is better than average. They have won at home by an average of 5.4 ppg this year while compiling a 14-7 record on their home floor. Lay the small number with confidence here tonight. |
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01-22-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers | 109-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
3* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City +
This is a tough spot for the Clippers as they are playing their third game in four nights and coming off a back-to-back against Golden State. They have not covered in two straight games now, playing Washington close Saturday and losing by seven to the Warriors. Oklahoma City is also coming off a loss, but they've had a day to recover from the hard fought game against the Nuggets. The Thunder have now scored 117 or more points in three straight games, so their offense should be fully clicking as they take on the Clippers. You should also take road teams that are outscoring opponents by more than six points per game after scoring 105 or more in three straight games. These teams are 116-71 (62%) since 1996. The Thunder won earlier in the year at home by a score of 117-111 and that sets us up for a nice situation tonight. You want to play against any team with a line of less than three that is revenging a loss against an opponent off a home loss. This system is 217-142 (60.4%) over the last five seasons. You also want to go against home favorite revenging a home loss where an opponent scored 110+ points when playing on back-to-back days. This system is 54-24 (69.2%) over the last five seasons. |
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01-22-13 | Philadelphia 76ers v. Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
3* HIGH ROLLER on Milwaukee Bucks -
Philadelphia is not a very good road team as they are just 6-14 away from home this year, scoring 90.1 ppg while allowing 95.9. They are playing a back-to-back in a tough spot, where they took on a very good San Antonio team and had the game in hand late, but fell apart to give the Spurs the victory. Milwaukee on the other hand has been playing well lately, winning their last two games and covering both on the road. The Bucks have won five of seven with Boylan coaching them. The Bucks also went into Philadelphia earlier this year and won by nine points. This sets us up for a nice situation here tonight where you want to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9 points who are revering an upset loss off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system is 98-49 (66.7%) ATS since 1996. |
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01-21-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Chicago Bulls | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Lakers are a good team to fade right now. They are back to full strength but this team just isn't a juggernaut like everyone thought they were going to be. LA finally got Gasol back on Thursday and lost to the Heat, then went up to Toronto and couldn't beat the Raptors. Now they travel down to face a Chicago team that has been playing well. The Bulls have won three of four with their only loss being at home to Memphis on Saturday, but that was a tough spot off a one point win in Boston the night before. Chicago is only allowing 89.1 ppg at home this season while the Lakers are giving up 107 ppg on the road. Chicago has the ability to shut down the Lake Show, especially with their troubles getting in sync offensively. I think this one is a Bull blowout. |
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01-21-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. New York Knicks UNDER 194.5 | 88-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Total Dominator on Knicks/Nets UNDER
Two good divisional opponents playing each other on NBA TV today, I think this one has UNDER written all over it. Both teams have played solid defense in the division, the Knicks are allowing a little over 92 ppg while the Nets a little over 94. Brooklyn has also held four of their last six opponents to under 90 points, while the Knicks have held their last two and three of four under 88. The last time these two teams met they only managed 186 points, so I think you can expect the same kind of result here today. Play the UNDER when the total is between 190-199.5 when a team is on 2 days rest and coming off a win. This situation is 187-123 the last five seasons. You also want to take the UNDER when a team is playing their 3rd game or less in 10 days when they have a winning record playing a team with a winning record. This system is 105-61 over the last five years. |
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01-21-13 | Houston Rockets -6.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | 100-94 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NBA NO BRAINER on Houston Rockets -
So the Rockets have not looked good here lately. They have played six of their last seven games on the road, and the only home contest was against the LA Clippers. It's not really a surprise they have put together a seven game losing streak both straight up and against the spread with that kind schedule and I think it has opened up some value on Houston here in a good spot. Charlotte is terrible. They are only 10-30 on the year and 5-16 at home. This team is getting outscored by an average of 8.3 ppg and they have lost six of their last seven. There isn't a better team for Houston to get back on track against than Charlotte, and they should do so in BLOWOUT fashion on Monday. Houston is a PERFECT 8-0 ATS against teams shooting less than 43% with a defense that allows 46% or more the last three years. The Bobcats are just 4-18 ATS against teams who shoot more than 83 times per game the last two seasons and 2-12 ATS at home against teams who attempt 18 or more 3's per game. |
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01-20-13 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 204 | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
3* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Raptors UNDER
The LA Lakers are finally at full strength and I think that is going to help them on the defensive end of the floor. This team has held three straight opponents to under 100 points since the return of Dwight Howard, and limited the Bucks to just 35.8% shooting two games ago. The Raptors have been scoring a lot of points, going over in four straight games, but they are only averaging 97.1 ppg on the year and giving up 94.7 ppg at home. Quite a few systems support our play here today. One says to take the UNDER on Sundays when a team has gone UNDER by 30 or more in their last three games. This system is 128-69 (65%) the last three seasons. Another says to take the UNDER on Sunday when a team hasn't played since Thursday and the total is over 200. This system is 57-24 ATS since 1996. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3-pointers, and that puts both of them into a system that says to take the UNDER when the total is over 200 and a team attempts more than 18 3's per game. The UNDER is 127-71 the last five seasons when just one of these teams play, and both fit the bill here today. This is an early start at 1 PM EST and these players aren't used to getting going so early. This might be particularly tough on LA, who is playing in the Eastern Time Zone and essentially starting at 10 AM accruing to their body clocks. |
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01-19-13 | Washington Wizards v. Los Angeles Clippers -13.5 | 87-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NBA BAILOUT ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -
I'm siding with the Clippers here today. Washington has been playing great lately winning four of their last five and covering five straight. Last night they fought hard to come back against the Denver Nuggets, but that actually works against them Saturday as they have to pack up and fly to LA after that tough win. The Clippers on the other hand jus keep rolling. They are coming off another double digit win on Thursday, this time by 13 points in Minnesota. That made it three straight road wins and covers after the team lost at home to Orlando last Sunday. The Clippers are going to want to put on a good show for the home fans after that embarrassing loss last weekend. LA is averaging a 12.2 margin of victory on their home floor, scoring 104.5 ppg and giving up just 92.3. Washington on the other hand is averaging a 11 point margin of loss on the road, scoring just 84.6 ppg while giving up 95.6 ppg. Since these two teams are at the extremes in talent level, I would think each succeeds those numbers by quite a few points here tonight. Last year these two teams played twice in February and the Clippers won by 18 points at home and 26 points on the road. I don't see them having much trouble with Washington here tonight either. |
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01-19-13 | Sacramento Kings v. Charlotte Bobcats OVER 204.5 | Top | 97-93 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
5* Total NO BRAINER on Bobcats/Kings OVER
Two terrible defenses collide on Saturday night and I'm all over the OVER here. The Kings are allowing 103.3 ppg while the Bobcats are giving up 103.5 ppg. Opponents are shooting 45.8% against Sacramento and 46.1% against Charlotte (including 39% from behind the arc). The Bobcats have and some trouble scoring lately and that had caused the UNDER to hit in four straight games, but they broke out of their fun last night in Orlando to put up 106 points. The Kings had gone OVER in six straight games before siding with the UNDER in their last two, but last night they faced a tough Memphis team so it's easy to see why they struggled to score. That only led to some value here tonight with this total being set lower than it should be. The Kings are 24-14 OVER in all games this year, but 11-3 OVER when they are playing a team that forces 14 or fewer turnovers per game. A system that supports our play says that when the total is between 200-209.5 take the OVER when the road team has gone over the total by a combined 48 points or more in their previous 10 games. This system is 32-10 over the past five seasons. |
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01-18-13 | Sacramento Kings +9.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Sacramento Kings +
This is a tough spot for the Memphis Grizzlies. They have played a couple of tough games in a row over the past week wight eh Spurs, Mavs, Clippers, and Spurs again. They beat San Antonio by three the first time around, but then lost the next three and all by more than 20 points. Sure, they were playing good teams but getting beat that badly shakes one's confidence. Even with a short break tonight, Memphis then has to play Chicago, Indiana, and Brooklyn in their next three games coming up, setting this team up for both a letdown and a look ahead. The Kings might not be very good, but they have won two straight. Of course it was against Cleveland and Washington so it was to be expected. Sacramento has now lost six straight against the spread, so they haven't exactly been playing well either, but this is a young team that will be motivated by just winning the last two games. Memphis isn't a team that blows out their opponents, winning by an average of less than five at home. The Kings have lost by less than 10 ppg on the road this year, so I see a lot of value in taking the points here tonight. A couple of situations support our play here that say to fade home teams after scoring 85 points or less in three straight games. This situation is 163-103 (61.3%) since 1996. You also want to take teams winning less than 40% of their games after being beaten by 18+ points combined against the spread in their last three games when hey are double digit underdogs. These teams are 44-18 ATS the last five seasons. |
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01-17-13 | Miami Heat v. Los Angeles Lakers -2.5 | 99-90 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA MAIN EVENT on Lakers -
The LA Lakers are starting to look like themselves all of a sudden. Sure, their lsat two opponents were the Cavs and the Bucks, not exactly top tier teams. When a team beats a team they should you have to look at by how many and the Lakers won both in impressive fashion. It's no surprise that getting Dwight Howard back gave this team a boost, and now word is Pau Gasol is going to play tonight against the Heat. Since LA is just 5-8 without Gasol this year, I think he'll give them a real boost down low, especially since Miami lacks front court depth behind Chris Bosh. Miami won in impressive fashion at Golden State last night, but the team has been struggling against top tier teams. They lost at Utah, at Portland, at Indiana, and at home against Chicago to start the 2013 year. Some would argue that the Lakers aren't a top tier team with a sub. 500 record, but they have top tier talent that will go all out on a Thursday night TNT game. The Heat are just 4-12 ATS after playing as a road favorite. |
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01-16-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers +7 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO LIMIT on Cleveland Cavs +
Cleveland has had a tough little road trip but I think they will play tough against Portland on Wednesday night. We are getting some value here because Cleveland has lost the first three games of their West Coast swing, but the Cavs have already faced the Blazers once this season and lost by a single point at home back on December 1st. The trouble with Portland is that they are playing on back-to-back nights, but they haven't really played well lately either. The Blazers lost at Golden State and at home to the Thunder the last two games. As I write this they are playing the Nuggets tough, but that game is being played in Denver. Tonight they will have to travel back to Portland, crossing nearly 1,200 miles and a time zone to play a bad team on Wednesday night. So, not only is the rest situation not working in Portland's favor, but they are also going to be in a letdown spot. Portland and Denver are battling it out for the second spot behind Oklahoma City in the Northwest Division and the Blazers currently sit only a half game up on Utah for the 8th and final playoff spot. They will have spent everything they have trying to win in Denver to get an edge in the standings and in any tiebreaker situation late in the year. Playing a non-conference team that is 9-31 isn't going to be high priority after that. Take the points with the Cavs tonight as heach coach Terry Stotts is just 66-93 ATS against teams with a losing record. |
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01-16-13 | Denver Nuggets v. Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
4* HEAVY HITTER on Oklahoma City Thunder -
Denver is coming off a tough divisional game last night in which they took the Portland Trailblazers to overtime before coming out on top. Now they have to take to the road to take on the best team in the West, and I think this number is a little short of what I expected since this will be the Nuggets third game in four nights. Denver is hot right now winning six in a row, but the Nuggets are just 9-14 on the road this year, losing by 1.5 ppg. The Thunder on the other hand are 18-3 at home, winning by more than 11 ppg. Oklahoma City has won four in a row, the last three of which came on the road. They have this game at home before kicking off a six game road trip so they know they need a good showing before the tough stretch ahead. |
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01-16-13 | New Orleans Hornets v. Boston Celtics -7 | 90-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
3* on Boston Celtics -
The Hornets have been an awful 6-13 on the road this year, losing by 4 ppg while Boston is 13-6 at home winning by 4.5 ppg. The public is jumping on this New Orleans team now that they have won five of their last six games both straight up and against the spread, but Boston is just as hot since Avery Bradley returned to the lineup, winning their last six straight up and five of those at the pay window. New Orleans is coming off a nice win last night in Philadelphia, but this will be their third game in four nights. The Celtics on the other hand have only played once since last Friday, so the veterans have had plenty of time to get their legs back under them. These two teams played at the beginning of the season last year, and New Orleans won at home by 19. Don't think for a second this Celtic group doesn't remember that and they will be out to prove a point tonight. |
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01-16-13 | Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks -4 | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
3* on Atlanta Hawks -
Atlanta was embarrassed in Chicago the other night, only putting up 58 points in the 39 point loss. Now Atlanta has dropped six of their last seven both straight up and at the pay window, and it has given us some value with this team tonight. Brooklyn is coming off a tough divisional game against the Raptors last night so they are on short rest playing their third game in four nights. They have won nine of 10 since PJ took over the reigns, but that has just inflated their value here tonight. The Hawks are 12-6 at home while the Nets are 8-8 on the road. The odds makers are over-adjusting on this one so take advantage. |
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01-16-13 | Chicago Bulls -3 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA NO BRAINER on Chicago Bulls -
The Toronto Raptors are in a tough spot on Wednesday night as they will be flying from Brooklyn back home to face the Chicago Bulls. Toronto not only has to fly back home, but they are coming off a hard fought divisional game against the Nets. The Bulls are a tough matchup for Toronto because they do a good job of getting to the line, and they convert 79% of their free throw attempts. Toronto allows their opponents who average only 22 attempts per game to get to the line 27 times a contest against them, so expect Chicago to pile on some easy points Wednesday. Chicago's head coach Tom Thibodeau called out his players before the Atlanta game, saying their weren't putting for the effort the liked on defense. What did the Bulls do? They held Atlanta to just 58 points on Monday. If you don't think that carries over think again. Teams that have held opponents to less than 65 points are 52-39 ATS the following game. Toronto even played Chicago in this situation last March and Chicago went into Toronto and won by 12 points as 7.5 point favorite, holding Toronto to just 82 points. Thibodeau is 25-10 ATS on the road after a home win in Chicago and the Bulls are 22-11 ATS as a road favorite the last two years. I'll take Chicago as I think they win big up north. |
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01-15-13 | Milwaukee Bucks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 212.5 | 88-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
4* Total NO BRAINER on Bucks/Lakers UNDER 212.5
The Lakers have had some high totals recently and for good reason as they were both scoring and giving up over 100 points per game. Dwight Howard returned against the Cavs on Sunday though and LA held Cleveland to just 93 points. I think that trend continues here tonight as they have held opponents to just 43.7% shooting at home, including 32.1% from 3-point range. Milwaukee hasn't scored as well on the road, but interestingly enough they have played better defense than at home, giving up just 95.9 ppg outside of Milwaukee. The Bucks have seen 3 of the four totals go OVER since Skiles was fired, but none of those were set anywhere near as high as tonight's. Lots of value in the UNDER here and I'll take it. A great system supports our play that says to take the UNDER when one team is off a home blowout win of 20 points or more and their opponent is off a road win of 10 or more. This system has gone 92-46 (66.7%) for the UNDER since 1996. Another situation that applies says to take the UNDER when a team is on the road with a total of 210 or more and they are coming off an upset win as a double digit underdog. These teams are 47-16 (74.6%) for the UNDER since 1996. |
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01-15-13 | Indiana Pacers -7.5 v. Charlotte Bobcats | Top | 103-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
5* NO LIMIT on Indiana Pacers -
Indiana had been rolling along, winning four in a row and 10 of their last 12 before a loss in Brooklyn on Sunday. They are going to want to right the ship tonight against the Bobcats, a team they just beat on Saturday night at home by eight points. There is plenty of value in this one as well since Indiana hasn't covered their last four times out. The Bobcats are going to have a tough time putting up points since they only average 95.5 ppg and Indiana is holding their foes to just 89.3 not he year. Indiana on the other hand should be able to get things going as the Bobcats allow 103.6 ppg. Back in early November Indiana traveled to Charlotte and lost by a single point. You can bet that point has been hammered home to them and they will come out hungry from the opening tip, and pull away fast. Indiana needs to take advantage of soft spots in their schedule to make up for their slow start, and they do that tonight. The Bobcats are 17-34 ATS when playing a team with a winning record the last two seasons and 14-28 ATS at a home underdog. |
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01-14-13 | Cleveland Cavaliers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 203.5 | Top | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Total Dominator on Kings/Cavs OVER
Sacramento's defense has been terrible all year long, but the last four games it's been something special. All four opponents have scored 113 or more points against them and this team hasn't let a team score under 94 points since way back on December 8th. It's no surprise that the Kings have gone OVER in five straight and 10 of their last 11 and I don't think they will have a problem eclipsing this number tonight either. Cleveland isn't a great offensive team, but they have their own struggles on the defensive side of the ball. On the road they are giving up 100.4 ppg on 47.9% shooting against teams scoring just 96.5 on 44.4%. This team has allowed 97 or more points in eight of their last nine games. The Kings are 39-21 OVER when the total is between 200-210 the last three seasons and 14-6 OVER at home this year. Sacramento is 23-11 OVER in non-confernece games the last two years and 15-7 OVER after a loss this year. Finally, since 1996 the Kings are 34-18 OVER at home when playing a team with a winning percentage 25% or lower. All sign point to a lot of scoring tonight, so take the OVER. |
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01-13-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 199.5 | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
3* NBA Total Dominator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER
This is a big game for both teams as Portland is trying to establish themselves as a legitimate playoff contender after winning four of their last five and six of their last eight. Now they host a division rival that is the best team in the West. Oklahoma City hasn't been a slouch on the road, but their shooting dips from 47.9% at home to 46.3% on the road, but behind the arc it goes from 39.6% down to 34.2%. Portland is a team that allows only 31.2% 3-point shooting at home, so the Thunder are not going to be able to get as many trips where they get three points instead of two here today. Earlier this year the odds makers set a total for 205 in Oklahoma City and the two teams played to 198 points. Now they have dropped the number quite a bit and I still don't think it's enough. A couple of systems that support our pick say to play the UNDER in divisional games when the total is between 190 and 200 when one team is off two straight covers as a favorite. This system is 50-21 (70.4%) the last five seasons. Another one is to play the UNDER with any team that outscores their opponents by 9+ ppg when hey are coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-41 (63.1%) for the UNDER the last five years. |
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01-12-13 | Phoenix Suns v. Chicago Bulls -8.5 | 97-81 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
4* NO DOUBT ROUT on Chicago Bulls -
The Suns are a dreadful 2-17 on the road this year losing by 11.5 ppg so I don't think this number is quite high enough. Last night Phoenix played the Brooklyn Nets tough in the first half and then were absolutely blown out in the 2nd, losing the game by 20. Now they have to travel to Chicago for a quick turnaround against a Bulls team that took it to New York last night. Both of these teams are playing their third game in four nights, but for Phoenix it will actually be their fourth in five. Plus this is the last game of a four game road trip that has not gone very well, so I imagine the players will be anxious to get back home. The Bulls have now won four of their last five games. The Bulls beat the Suns by six earlier in the year in Phoenix, so I see another blowout on the horizon tonight as they host the Suns. Phoenix is 19-32 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent the last two seasons and Chicago is 22-9 ATS playing their 3rd game in four days. |