Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-19 | Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5 | 118-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans +4½ -105 Most are going to look at this game and just blindly take the Mavs. Hard to blame them given Dallas has won 7 of 8 and are off a 114-100 win against the Lakers, snapping LA's 10-game win streak. The thing is, the books aren't stupid. They know that as good as the Mavs been playing, they are due to for a letdown off that big win, especially given that they are on the road and facing a struggling Pelicans team that has lost 5 straight. Thing is while the wins aren't there, NO has been playing well with each of their last 3 losses coming by 5-points or less. The most recent was a 104-107 setback at home to the Thunder as a 1-point favorite. That result is worth noting, as the Pelicans are 18-7 ATS last 25 off a home loss and 9-1 ATS when off a home loss as a favorite. Take New Orleans! |
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12-03-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +3 | 127-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cavs +3 -110 The Cavaliers are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pistons. I just think there's no way Detroit should be laying points on the road against any team right now. The Pistons are just 7-13 overall and a miserable 1-9 on the road where they are getting outscored by 7.8 ppg. I know Detroit comes in off 132-98 blowout win over the Spurs at home, but they haven't won back-to-back games once all season. Cleveland is a work in progress, but they play hard and could be getting back a couple of key guys back. Rookie Dylan Windler could make his season debut and big man John Henson could return from injury. Either way I like the Cavs here, who are well rested having not played since last Friday. Pistons have also not shown well against bad teams, going just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. They are 0-5 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland! |
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12-02-19 | Pacers v. Grizzlies +10 | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies +10 -110 I really like the value here with Memphis as a double-digit home dog against the Pacers. I just think Indiana is getting way too much love from the books in this spot. Not a big surprise given the Pacers have gone 12-4 in their last 16. I just think it's asking a little too much for Indiana to be favored by this much given they will be playing their 2nd straight on the road, as well as their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Memphis snapped a 6-game skid with a 115-107 upset win as a 12-point dog at Minnesota yesterday and despite their struggles to win games have gone a profitable 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games. Pacers are just 8-18 ATS last 26 on the road after playing their previous game on the road and 3-15 ATS last 18 on the road after a game with a combined score of 225 or more. Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS last 17 when revenging a same season loss. Take Memphis! |
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12-02-19 | Suns -4.5 v. Hornets | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Suns -4½ -110 I really like the value here with the Suns, as I feel like this is the perfect spot to jump on them. Phoenix comes in having lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. A big reason for their struggles is they had some key guys out. They have recently got them back and I look for them to get back to their early season form that saw them open the season 7-4. Charlotte is the perfect team to get right against. The Hornets are one of the last talented teams in the league and are just 4-10 in their last 14. Three of those four wins have come against a bad Pistons team and the other against an awful Knicks team. Each of their last 6 losses have come by double-digits. Look for the Suns to make easy work of the Hornets tonight. Take Phoenix! |
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12-01-19 | Mavs +7 v. Lakers | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Mavs +7 -110 I just think we are getting too good a price here with the Mavs because of the Lakers coming in having won 10 straight. Dallas isn't quite on that level, but they are 6-1 in their last 7. Their only loss coming against the Clippers, who are a really tough matchup for them with all the elite defenders they can throw at Luka Doncic. Lakers are a good defensive team, but I don't think they got anyone that can shutdown Doncic and there's going to be a game here soon where LA lays an egg and this winning streak comes to an end. I really think the Mavs could pull off the upset here. Either way, they should keep it close. Despite all the wins LA is racking up, they are just 2-4 ATS last 6 games. Dallas is 6-1 ATS last 7. Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS last 17 road games and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Lakers are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team from the Western Conference. Take Dallas! |
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12-01-19 | Celtics v. Knicks +8 | 113-104 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers ERROR on Knicks +8 -115 I really like the value here with New York as a near double-digit home dog against the Celtics. No question Boston is the better team, I just think the Celtics are ready to get this game over with and head back home after a hectic last few days that has seen them host the Nets on Wednesday, travel to Brooklyn to take on the Nets Friday and then stay in New York Saturday for this one. Boston isn't exactly playing their best basketball right now either, as they have lost 4 of their last 7. Knicks have lost 5 straight, but are a very respectable 4-3-1 ATS last 8 games. While the Celtics could struggle to get up for this one, New York figures to give a big effort as they haven't forgot about the ugly 118-95 home loss they suffered at the hands of Boston earlier this season. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the month of December, who have lost 4 or more games in a row are a dominant 43-15 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take New York! |
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11-30-19 | Pacers v. 76ers OVER 206 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/76ers over 206 -109 The books have completely missed the mark with Saturday's NBA total between the Pacers and 76ers. I get these are two strong defensive teams, but Philadelphia is scoring 108.3 ppg and Indiana is even better at 109.3 ppg. Pacers are also red-hot on the offensive side of the ball right now, as they are scoring 115.6 ppg in their last 5. 76ers don't figure to be at their best defensively in this one, as they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. Same thing with the Pacers defense, as Indiana is also in the second game of a back-to-back. OVER is 5-1-1 in the Pacers last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest and 4-1 in the 76ers last 5 on no rest. OVER is laos 6-1 in Philadelphia's last 7 when their starters combine for 160 minutes in the previous day and 6-2-1 in Indiana's last 9 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day. Take the OVER! |
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11-29-19 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 235 | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night TOTAL BAILOUT on Wizards/Lakers under 235 -105 UNDER is definitely worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup between the Lakers and Wizards. While LA has seemed to figure out the offense here i n the last couple of weeks, I just feel the number is way too high for the spot. I just don't see the Lakers looking to push the pace at all in this one. They just finished up a 4-game road trip that spanned just 6 days and they just last played in New Orleans on Wednesday. If LA wants to play slow, they are good enough to dictate the tempo to their liking. Wizards are a team that likes to play fast, but they too figure to be a little slower than normal. Washington is playing it's 3rd straight on the road and this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days. UNDER is 15-5 in Lakers last 20 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 24-9 in their last 33 after scoring 105 or more in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 17-7 in their last 24 at home vs a team with a losing record and 18-5 in their last 23 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 46% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! |
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11-29-19 | Raptors -3.5 v. Magic | 90-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt Oddsmakers ERROR on Raptors -3½ -110 Easy play here with Toronto laying a short number at Orlando on Friday. The Raptors have already had their way with the Magic twice this season. They won by 9 at home on Oct. 28 and then by 16 in the rematch on Nov. 20. While both of those were played in Toronto, I don't think being at home will be enough for Orlando to change the script. Big reason for that is the Magic are still missing two of their best players as Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic both remain sidelined with ankle injuries. Not to mention Orlando has just not showed up against the better team. Raptors are way better than just about anyone anticipated after losing Kawhi Leonard. They have won 5 straight and are 13-4 overall. Road favorites (TORONTO) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 69-35 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Toronto! |
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11-29-19 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 216.5 | 107-112 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Early Bird Total NO-BRAINER on Celtics/Nets under 216½ -109 I really like the value here with the UNDER 216.5 in Friday's early NBA action between the Celtics and Nets. This is a far cry from what NBA players are use to in terms of start time for a game and I just think when you have games this early, especially on Friday, it's hard for players to get up for the game and play at their normal tempo. On top of that, these two teams just played Wednesday night in Boston, so both teams are going to be much better equipped for what the other wants to do offensively. UNDER is 15-5 in the Celtics last 20 division road games and 5-1 in the Nets last 6 overall. Take the UNDER! |
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11-27-19 | Lakers v. Pelicans +6.5 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Pelicans +6½ -110 I like the value here with New Orleans as a decent home dog against the Lakers. Anytime LA is playing an inferior team you know the books are going to inflate the number and I think that's definitely the case here. Lakers got nothing to prove here. They come in having won 8 straight and 15 of 16 overall. With their next two at home and Thanksgiving tomorrow, I have a hard time believing they are all that interested in this one. Pelicans on the other hand are going to play their hearts out, especially with all the old Lakers that make up this New Orleans roster. Lakers are just 1-3 ATS over their last 4, which includes a mere 1-point win at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. I see this going very similar to that one. Take New Orleans! |
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11-27-19 | Knicks +10.5 v. Raptors | 98-126 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Big Money ATS ANNIHILATOR on Knicks +10½ -109 I really like the value here with New York getting double-digits against the Raptors. While these two teams are polar opposites in terms of their overall record, the Knicks have shown a lot of fight against some of the top teams. They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 and in their last road game against a good 76ers team that only lost by 5 as a 13-point dog. Knicks are 3-0 ATS this season when getting double-digits and 6-1 ATS when catching more than 7. Toronto comes in having won 4 straight going 3-1 ATS in this stretch. However, the Raptors are just 10-22 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of 4 and just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after 4 or more consecutive wins. Take New York! |
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11-27-19 | Nets +7.5 v. Celtics | 110-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Nets +7½ -105 This is too good a price here with Brooklyn catching a big number on the road against the Celtics. While the Nets will still be without Kyrie Irving, they haven't really missed him of late. Brooklyn comes in having won 4 straight. The Nets are also a strong 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games. No question Boston is the better team and this is probably one they had circled to start the year, as it would have been their first game against Irving since he left. I think with him being sidelined it takes away a lot of motivation for the Celtics and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see them come out a bit sluggish. Boston is just 1-8-2 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a losing road record and just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 home games overall. Nets on the other hand are 11-5 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Brooklyn! |
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11-26-19 | Wizards v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | 104-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wizards/Nuggets over 226½ -110 I think we are getting some great value here with the OVER in Tuesday's NBA action between Denver and Washington. The Nuggets have been great defensively over their recent 9-1 stretch, but I just don't think we are going to see a big effort on that side against a bad Wizards team, especially with the holiday's coming up and Denver getting a much-needed 3-day break after this game. Washington is also a team that just doesn't play any defense and if Denver gets up big they aren't going to keep trying on the defensive side of the ball. Wizards have allowed 113 or more points in 11 of their last 12 games, giving up 120 or more 7 times in this stretch. Only one of their last 6 games has seen a combined less than 243 points. OVER is 20-8 in the Wizards last 28 off a loss, 7-2 in their last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Western Conference. OVER is also 31-17 in their last 48 with a total set in the 220's. Take the OVER! |
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11-25-19 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Public Money ATS SHOCKER on Spurs +5½ -110 No surprise here that we are getting value with San Antonio at home against the Lakers. The Spurs have to be one of the biggest disappointments this season, as they are just 6-11 and had lost 8 straight prior to beating the Knicks on Saturday. Lakers on the other hand are a massive public team and they come in having won 7 straight and 14 of 15. While LA is a profitable 9-7 ATS on the season, the books have made some adjustments of late and they have failed to cover 3 in a row. They are also just 3-4 ATS on the road compared to 6-3 ATS at home. Key here is the Lakers are playing their 3rd straight on the road in a span of just 4 days and they barely won last time out 109-108 at Memphis as a 8-point favorite. James and AD both played 35+ in their back-to-back games Friday/Saturday. I just don't think the Lakers are going to have the energy here to compete against a San Antonio team that is going to give it all they got. Spurs are 16-5 ATS last 21 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take San Antonio! |
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11-25-19 | Kings v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Kings/Celtics under 208½ -110 I like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup between Boston and Sacramento. These two teams met just 8 days ago in Sacramento and the Kings won that contest 100-99. Both defense played really well in that game and the pace was extremely slow. Playing slow is what the Kings want to do, as they 27th in the NBA in pace of play. I like them to dictate the tempo once again, as Boston is likely to be without starting point guard Kemba Walker. They are already down a big offensive weapon in Gordon Hayward and while Marcus Smart is going to play, he's at less than 100%. UNDER is 24-12 in Kings last 36 non-conference games, 16-6 in their last 22 vs a team with a winning record and 9-3 in their last 12 on the road. UNDER is also 12-3-1 in Boston's last 16 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days and 5-0 n their last 5 non-conference games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-25-19 | Magic v. Pistons UNDER 206.5 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/Pistons under 206½ -110 Really like the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup that has the Magic visiting the Pistons. It's been a struggle on the offensive end for Orlando who are 29th in the league at just 102.1 ppg. It's not going to get any better in the short-term, as the Magic will be without Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic. Gordon is 4th on the team at 13.1 ppg and Vucevic is second at 17.1 ppg. These are Orlando's two best offensive rebounders. Magic also are the league's slowest team in pace of play and will have to rely even more on their defense and slow tempo to have any shot here. Detroit's offense isn't exactly clicking, as they have failed to top 90 in 2 of their last 3. The Pistons also rank in the bottom half of the league (21st) in pace of play. UNDER is 13-3 in Orlando's last 16 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 and 29-13 in their last 42 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. UNDER is 14-3 in Pistons last 17 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Take the UNDER! |
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11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets UNDER 231.5 | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Rockets under 231½ -109 Most are going to look to pound the OVER here, as you got a Mavs team coming off back-to-back 140+ point showings against a Rockets team that can score all kinds of points behind their dynamic duo of Westbrook and Harden. I just think it's a lot harder than people realize for these NBA players to get their minds right for these early start times on the weekend, especially Sunday. Add in both of these teams playing on limited rest and I think we get a lot lower scoring game than you would normally get with these two. UNDER is a strong 17-7 in the Rockets last 24 games with a total of 230 or more. It's also 35-19 in the Mavs last 54 after 2 straight where they shot 50% or better from the field. Take the UNDER! |
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11-23-19 | Blazers v. Cavs OVER 223 | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Blazers/Cavs over 223 -110 Easy play on the OVER in Saturday's NBA slate that has the Cavaliers hosting the Blazers. Defense is not a strength of either of these teams. Cleveland is giving up 112.1 ppg and Portland is allowing 116.7 ppg. Both teams are in much worse form than that of late, as the Cavs are giving up 122.8 ppg in their last 5 and the Blazers are allowing 122.4 ppg in their last 5. Blazers are one of the best pick and roll teams in the league and the Cvs are one of the worst defending it. Portland should be able to exploit this in a big way, especially with Damian Lillard expected back in the lineup after missing the Blazers last game. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see both teams score into the 120s and this thing fly past the number. OVER is 10-3-1 in Portland's last 14 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-3 in the Cavs last 16 off a loss by more than 10. Take the OVER! |
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11-23-19 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Situational ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Grizzlies +7½ -115 I really like the spot and the price we are getting with Memphis as a decently priced home dog against the Lakers on Saturday. No question LA is the better team, but this is all about motivation and rest. We know we are going to get a max effort here from the Grizzlies against a top tier team at home like the Lakers. Especially given that Memphis is playing this game on a full 3-days of rest. The same can't be said for the Lakers, who are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an up-and-down fast paced game against the Thunder last night that ended in a 130-127 win. Both LeBron and AD played 35+ minutes in that win. I could see the Lakers resting one or both of those guys or at least limiting their minutes. Lakers are also a mere 9-19 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as a mid-range favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Memphis! |
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11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 228 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Rockets/Clippers under 228 -109 This number doesn't make any sense to me. I just don't see these two teams coming close to 230 points. Houston is a tired team. They will be playing their 5th game in 7 days. Playing their 4th game in 6 days they managed just 95 points and shot just 42% from the field on Wednesday at Denver. Now they face a Clippers team that I believe can be the best in the league when they want to be on the defensive side of the ball. I fully expect a max effort on that side of the ball from LA at home against Harden and Westbrook. They definitely got the guys to slow those two down. Houston's offense gets a lot of praise, but they better defensively than they get credit for. Clippers offense only scored 90 on 40% shooting against the Thunder on Monday and then had 107 (in OT) on 42% shooting against the Celtics. UNDER is 16-4 in the Rockets last 20 road games as a dog of 6 or less and 19-5 in their last 24 on the road after going under in their previous game. Take the UNDER! |
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11-22-19 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 116-108 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Heat/Bulls under 216½ -105 The UNDER is worth a look here in Friday's NBA matchup between Chicago and Miami. This just feels like to big a number when you got a decent Heat defense that's facing a Bulls offense that is having a miserable time shooting well from the field. Chicago has shot 43% or worse in 4 straight games and will be facing a Heat defense that has only allowed a team to shoot better than 45% once all season. Miami has also slowed the pace considerably of late and we have seen the UNDER cash in 7 of their last 10 games. UNDER has cashed in each of the Bulls last two and they are off one of their best defensive showings of the season on Wednesday, as they held the Pistons to just 89 points on 34% shooting. UNDER is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 27-11-1 in the Bulls last 39 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-21-19 | Pelicans v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
5* NBA - TNT PRIME TIME PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns -3½ -110 Love the value here with Phoenix as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. I get New Orleans has won two straight, but let's not get carried away. Those two wins were both at home against a couple of struggling teams in the Warriors and Blazers. New Orleans is still just 5-9 overall and are 1-5 on the road, where they are giving up a ridiculous 120.8 ppg. Phoenix has lost 3 of 4 and will be without their two big free agent pickups in Ricky Rubio and Aron Baynes, but they still got more than enough talent to beat the Pelicans by 4 at home. Keep in mind that two of their 3 losses in their last 4 were home games against two of the best teams in the league in the Lakers and Celtics. The other a mere 4-point loss against a red-hot Sacramento team. Take Phoenix! |
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11-20-19 | Rockets +2 v. Nuggets | 95-105 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE WEEK on Rockets +2 -109 I get this isn't the best scheduling spot for Houston, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, but I just think the books have factored that into the number and the value is with the Rockets as an underdog. Houston comes in having won and covered 8 in a row. The concerns of how Russell Westbrook and James Harden could go exist can be thrown out the window. Harden has to be the MVP frontrunner right now, as he's averaging 39.2 ppg to go with 7.6 apg and 5.7 rpg. As for Westbrook, he's doing just fine at 21.6 ppg, 7.1 apg and 8.4 rpg. I just see no reason to back off this team with how they are playing right now. Denver is also just 2-5 ATS last 7 at home and 1-5 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Take Houston! |
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11-20-19 | Magic +4 v. Raptors | 97-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Raptors/Magic ATS WINNER on Magic +4 -115 I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! |
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11-20-19 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 208 | 97-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Raptors/Magic TOTAL WINNER on Magic/Raptors under 208 -115 I'm doubling down on tonight's NBA matchup between Orlando and Toronto, as see great value both with the Magic and the UNDER. I know Orlando comes in 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but they just weren't playing well at all to start the year. Magic got the kinks worked out on their recent 5-game homestand. They won each of the last 3 and 4 of 5 overall. I like them to carry over that momentum and not just cover but win this game outright. Raptors have been playing without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka and I just think they are starting to show some signs of fatigue. One player that really seems to be effected is Fred VanVleet, who is averaging close to 38 mins/game. He's just 11 for 38 from the field in his last two games. As for the UNDER, the Magic like to slow things way down. Orlando is the third slowest team in the league with a pace rating fo 98.6. Toronto starting out playing fast (104.2 pace rating in October), but injuries have forced them slow things down. In the month of November their pace rating is just 101.6. Magic are 11-2 ATS last 13 when they come in having won 4 of their last 5 and the UNDER is 14-3 in their last 17 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take Orlando & UNDER! |
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11-19-19 | Suns +3 v. Kings | 116-120 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night ATS CASH COW on Suns +3 -109 I actually think we are getting some decent value here with Phoenix due to the Suns playing in the second game of a back-to-back set and having just got annihilated by the Celtics last night 99-85 at home. Thing is, Phoenix had 3 days off before playing Boston, so the back-to-back isn't a as big a deal. Suns are also a team that has been very profitable in this spot, going 9-4 ATS last 13 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are also a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season, covering by almost 11 points/game. These two already played once this season and the Suns won 124-95. Phoenix did as they pleased, shooting 50% from the field and racking up 31 assists. That result combined with the Kings off a 100-99 win at home over the Celtics adds even more value. Home teams revening a road loss of 20 or more and are coming off a home win by 3 or less are a mere 21-54 (28%) ATS since 1996. Take Phoenix! |
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11-18-19 | Spurs v. Mavs UNDER 225 | 110-117 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs/Mavs under 225 -109 This just feels like way too many points for this matchup. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play. I know the Spurs have played some high scoring games of late, but only one time in the Mavs last 6 games have they finished with a combined score of 225 or more. Spurs offense is averaging a respectable 112.4 ppg, but a lot of that is them playing a lot of bad defenses. San Antonio's opponents on the season are giving up 111.7 ppg, so they are just barely eclipsing what their opponents allow. Another thing to note is that in the last 30 meetings between these two teams, they have not had a game hit 225 points. UNDER is also 27-14 in Dallas' last 41 vs a poor defensive team that is allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or more. Take the UNDER! |
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11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 208.5 | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Cavs/Knicks over 208½ -109 I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's NBA matchup of Eastern Conference bottom feeders, as the Knicks will play host to the Cavs. A lot of time when you get two bad teams against one another, you don't see a whole lot of effort on the defensive side and that's what I'm expecting here. Cavs defense has been slipping of late, as they have allowed 50% shooting in each of their last two games and 47% or better in 5 of their last 7. Knicks are giving up 109.2 ppg. OVER is 5-2 in Cleveland's last 7 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 10-3 in their last 13 off a game where they didn't cover. Take the OVER! |
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11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic UNDER 223 | 121-125 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Wizards/Magic under 223 -109 UNDER is worth a look here in Sunday's NBA matchup between Orlando and Washington. The Magic are just an ideal UNDER team, as they rank dead last in the league in pace of play (99.7). They are 28th in offensive efficiency (100.9) and 5th in defensive efficiency (100.0). UNDER is 8-3-1 in Orlando's last 12 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 vs a bad team like the Wizards that has won less than 40% of their games. UNDER is 29-7 (81%) with a total of 220 to 229.5 when you have a road team off a win that's won between 25% to 40% of their games and facing another team with a losing record. Take the UNDER! |
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11-17-19 | 76ers v. Cavs +7 | Top | 114-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cavs +7 -105 Love the value here with the Cavs as a big home dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and have failed to cover 4 straight. 76ers are not a good road team and are playing their 3rd straight away from home. Cavs might be one of the least talented teams in the league, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. This team has been routinely undervalued by the books and that's evident by Cleveland's 6-3-2 ATS record. 76ers are 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road against a bad team that's won 25% to 40% of their games. Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 on 2 days of rest. Take Cleveland! |
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11-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 228 | 121-116 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Blazers/Spurs TOTAL WINNER on Blazers/Spurs under 228 -109 I just think the total here has been set way too high for this one. Portland was playing with some decent pace early on, but all the injuries have forced the Blazers to slow things down. Their pace of play rating was a respectable 105.1 in their first 8 games and is just 99.4 over their last 4. It's important to note the dip has come against teams that look to push the pace, which is a good sign the slow play will continue. Spurs defense hasn't been great, but their biggest weakness has been protecting the paint. Portland isn't really a team to take advantage of that, as they are 25th in the league in number of attempts per game within the restricted area. Look for this to stay well below the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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11-16-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Pacers | 102-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Bucks/Pacers ATS WINNER on Bucks -6½ -110 I like Milwaukee to cash in a win and cover at Indiana on Saturday. I just feel like we are getting a decent price here with the Bucks coming in off 4 straight non-covers. Especially given that Milwaukee will be playing just their second game in 6 days, while the Pacers are in the second game of a back-to-back set after playing last night at Houston. Another thing to note with the Pacers is that while they are 7-2 in their last 9 games, a lot of those wins came against bad teams. In fact, Indiana has played the softest schedule of any team in the NBA so far. Bucks are 30-16 ATS last 46 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a dominant 17-4 ATS last 21 vs a division opponent with an average margin of victory of 13.6 ppg. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-15-19 | Pistons v. Hornets OVER 219 | 106-109 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pistons/Hornets over 219 -109 I look for the Pistons/Hornets to fly past the total set by the books Friday night. These are simply too bad defensive teams. Detroit comes in allowing 112.5 ppg and that jumps up to 115.2 ppg on the road. Charlotte is allowing 113.7 ppg and their defense is even worse at home, where they are allowing 118.0 ppg. The Pistons have seen an average score of 223 in their 6 road games this season, while the Hornets are combining for 228.2 ppg on their home floor. Charlotte also really likes to push the pace at home. They also struggle to defend spot up shooting, which is something that Detroit excels at. Charlotte has allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and the OVER is a dominant 13-3 in their last 16 after 2 such games of bad defense. OVER is also 6-1 in the Pistons last 7 on the road, 8-1 in their last 9 when playing on 2 days of rest and 8-2 off a loss. Take the OVER! |
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11-15-19 | Pistons -3 v. Hornets | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA - Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pistons -3 -109 I think we are getting a great price with Detroit as a slim road favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte is off to a better start than most expected with 4 wins in their first 11 games, which puts them on pace to eclipse their win total of 23.5. I'm not buying into the early success and believe this team is going to struggle to find wins going forward. We've seen clear signs of this of late, as they have lost 4 straight, which includes a couple of home losses to bad teams in the Pelicans and Grizzlies. Pistons are just 4-8 to start the year, but did play a good chunk of their early schedule without Blake Griffin. While they enter having lost 3 straight, all 3 were by single-digits and two of those on the road. I expect a big effort here from Detroit on Friday and they are simply the better team and it's just not asking much for them to cover the small number. Pistons are 22-10 ATS last 32 when playing a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Detroit! |
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11-14-19 | Clippers -4 v. Pelicans | 127-132 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Clippers -4 -109 The Clippers are worth a look here at New Orleans on Thursday. Good chance Los Angeles decided to rest Kawhi in the second game of a back-to-back, but the good news is Paul George is ready to make his season debut. I think that will be more than enough for the Clippers to win here by 5 or more against a Pelicans team that just isn't very good and is dealing with a ton of injuries. New Orleans is not only a mere 2-8 SU, they are just 3-7 ATS. They are still waiting on the return on Zion from injury. Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball are both out, while Jahlil Okafor and Brandon Ingram are both listed as questionable. Pelicans are 4-12 ATS last 16 at home and a mere 1-10 ATS last 11 at home against a team that has won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | 108-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Underdog VEGAS INSIDER on Cavs +4½ -105 I think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland at home against the Heat. This might seem like a small number for Miami to be laying against a sub-par Cavs team, but the Heat will be playing far from full strength. Derrick Jones Jr and Justise Winslow are both out for this game, while Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are both questionable. Cleveland might not be the most talented team, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. Cavs have covered 3 straight are a very profitable 6-2-2 ATS on the season. Home team has also covered 4 of the last 5 in the series. Take Cleveland! |
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11-13-19 | 76ers v. Magic OVER 204 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Magic over 204 -110 I think we are getting some decent value here with the total in Wednesday's game that has the 76ers visiting the Magic. I just feel like the number here has been deflated way too much due to Orlando's offensive struggles and the 76ers coming off a game last night at Cleveland that ended with a mere 197 points. Thing is I don't think we are going to get a great defensive effort from Philadelphia playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days. We should also get one of the better offensive performances from the Magic playing at home on a full 2 days of rest. OVER is 31-12 in Philadelphia's last 43 road games off a home win by 3-points or less, 14-3 in their last 17 when playing on 0 days rest and 10-4 last 14 vs a team with a losing record. Take the OVER! |
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11-13-19 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hornets | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Grizzlies +2½ -110 I like Memphis to cash in a win here as a small road dog against the Bobcats. Grizzlies are coming off a 113-109 win at San Antonio as a 10.5-point dog and I think that win will go a long way in giving this team the confidence it was lacking after a slow start. Charlotte enters having lost 3 straight and are definitely a team worth fading with a small line at home. Hornets are a mere 9-22 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a line of +3 to -3. Road team has also covered 7 of the last 10 in the series. Take Memphis! |
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11-12-19 | Blazers v. Kings +2.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night PLAY OF THE WEEK on Kings +2½ -110 Most are going to just blindly take Portland here with the news that the Kings have lost starting point guard De'Aaron Fox for weeks to a ankle injury suffered in Monday's practice. It might be tough for Sacramento to overcome this in the long-run, but I expect this team to really come out strong here in the first game without him. Keep in mind the Kings have a legit backup to run the points in Corey Joseph and the team as a whole is playing with a ton of momentum having won 3 of their last 4. Blazers are just 4-6 on the year and their only win in their last 5 games is at home against the Hawks. Another key factor here is rest. Portland will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, while the Kings are playing on 3 full days of rest. Take Sacramento! |
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11-12-19 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 213.5 | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Knicks/Bulls under 213½ -109 Easy play on the other here as two of the league's worst offensive teams go head-to-head at the United Center. The Knicks rank dead last in offensive efficiency and the Bulls are sitting at 27th. Both teams also rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play with the Knicks way back there at 28th. These two teams already played once this season and combined for just 203 points. Both teams shot under 43% from the field. Expect more of the same tonight. UNDER is 8-2 in New York's 10 games and 12-3 in their last 15 when playing a bad team that's won 25% to 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-11-19 | Jazz v. Warriors +8.5 | 122-108 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Warriors +8½ -109 It's crazy how things have turned with Golden State. The Warriors had been the biggest public bet in the league for years, but no one wants anything to do with this year's Golden State team. Sure, it's not the same team. Not even close. But I do feel it has the Warriors a bit undervalued here at home against the Jazz. Utah is a team everyone was hyping up leading into the season and while they are off to a decent 6-3 start, they are just 3-6 ATS. Also, most of that success has come at home, as they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road. Also a big system in play backing a play on the Warriors, as underdogs with a losing record are 100-57 (64%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when coming off 3 or more straight road losses. Take Golden State! |
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11-11-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Pelicans | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rockets -5½ -109 Houston is definitely worth a look here laying what I feel is a short number against a struggling Pelicans team. Rockets started out the season failing to cover each of their first 6 games, but have won and covered each of their last 3. The most recent a 117-94 blowout win at Chicago as a similarly priced 6.5-point favorite. New Orleans comes in off a win and cover in a 115-10 win at Charlotte, but are just 2-7 overall. In each of their last 4 losses have come by double-digits. After really struggling defensively early on, Houston has been much better on that side of the ball of late. I just don't see the Pelicans being able to keep pace. Rockets are averaging 120.1 ppg and New Orleans are giving up 122.4 ppg. Take Houston! |
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11-10-19 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 214 | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Cavs/Knicks under 214 -110 Easy play for me on the UNDER in Sunday's NBA showdown between bottom feeders New York and Cleveland. The Knicks are scoring just 101.2 ppg on the road, while the Cavs are managing a mere 97.3 ppg at home. Neither of these teams like to play up-tempo. New York is 28th in pace of play and Cleveland comes in at 23. UNDER is 3-1 in the Knicks 4 road games and a perfect 3-0 in the Cavs 3 home games this season. UNDER is also 20-7 in the Knicks last 27 at home with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-3 in the Cavs last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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11-10-19 | Bucks v. Thunder +8 | 121-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Thunder +8 -105 Love the value here with Oklahoma City as a big home dog against the Bucks. I just feel like this is way too many points for Milwaukee to be laying in this spot. Bucks are finishing up a 4-game road trip that has seen them go from Minnesota, to LA, to Utah and now OKC in the last 7 days. You can see the effects of this trip getting to Milwaukee by their poor shooting performances against both the Clippers (42.9%) and Jazz (35.8%). Note they also used up a ton of energy ralling from a 22-point halftime deficit against Utah, only to lose on a last second shot. Thunder have won 3 of 4 and have a 5-1 record the last 6 times they have hosted the Bucks. Thunder have also covered 5 of their last 6 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take Oklahoma City! |
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11-09-19 | Celtics v. Spurs -1 | 135-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Spurs -1 -110 I'm not sure why the books are undervaluing San Antonio so much at home, but I'll gladly back the Spurs at basically a pick'em against the Celtics. Part of the value with SA comes from Boston being overvalued coming in having won 6 straight and going 4-1-1 ATS during that run. Spurs are 14-4 ATS last 18 home games with a line of +3 to -3 and 16-6 ATS last 22 at home as a favorite of 6 or less. Boston comes in off a 108-87 blowout win over Charlotte, but are just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take San Antonio! |
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11-08-19 | 76ers +5 v. Nuggets | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on 76ers +5 -110 Most will look to take the Nuggets here as a small home favorite, as the 76ers will be without Ben Simmons, but Philadelphia nearly won at Utah last time out with Simmons going out in the 1st half. We also know the 76ers are going to be extremely motivated here having lost their last two. Nuggets come in off back-to-back wins, but those were against the Magic and Heat. I just haven't been all that impressed with Denver early on and they have already failed to cover 2 of 3 at home this season. 76ers are 7-1 ATS last 8 off a SU loss, while Nuggets are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take Philadelphia! |
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11-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans +2.5 | 122-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans +2½ -105 I really like this spot for New Orleans and the books definitely agree with this line begging for public money on the Raptors. Pelicans are a much better team than their 1-6 record would suggest. Another key factor here is we can bank on a max effort here from New Orleans, as they will be ready to roll after a much-needed 3-day break. As for the Raptors, they might have a hard time showing up here, as they get ready to take off on a 5-game west coast trip. It's also important to note that Toronto is coming off a up-and-down game against the Kings, where the two combined for 244 points. Raptors are 4-17 ATS last 21 off a game with a combined score of 235 or more. Toronto has also failed to cover 7 of their last 23 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take New Orleans! |
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11-08-19 | Cavs +5 v. Wizards | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Cavs +5 -109 Cleveland is worth a look here as a small dog against the Wizards. This might seem like a favorable line to back Washington at home against a Cavs team that is just 2-5 on the season and come in having lost 3 straight. However, I actually like Cleveland to win this game outright. I've liked what I've seen out of this Cavs team. The schedule just has been tough to start. This is by far the worst team they have played. I also don't like this spot for the Wizards, who will have 4-days off after this one. Wizards are a miserable 5-15 ATS last 20 home games played on Friday and have gone just 11-25 ATS last 36 vs a bad team that's winning between 25%-40% of their games. Cavs are 18-7 ATS last 25 vs a team that's winning fewer than 40% of their games and 8-3 ATS last 11 on the road vs teams in this spot. Take Cleveland! |
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11-07-19 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 228 | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA - Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Clippers over 228 -109 I look for the Blazers and Clippers to fly past the total when the two face off in LA tonight. These are two of the most efficient offenses in the league right now. Clippers are No. 3 in offensive efficiency and the Blazers are just two spots back at No. 5. On top of that, both of these teams rank in the top half of the league in pace of play and the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency. I do think the Clippers can be a top tier defensive team if they choose, but I don't see them having the energy on that side tonight playing in the second game of a back-to-back. OVER is 30-18 in the Clippers last 48 home games and 11-2 in their last 13 at home if they are playing their 3rd straight at home. Take the OVER! |
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11-06-19 | 76ers v. Jazz OVER 210.5 | 104-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night Total HEAVY HITTER on 76ers/Jazz over 210½ -105 I look for the Jazz and 76ers to fly past the total tonight. The UNDER is 7-0 in Utah's first 7 games. I think the books have over-adjusted the number here, creating value on the OVER. This is the lowest total of the season for the Jazz and it's not like they are facing an offense that can't score. Philadelphia is averaging 114 ppg and have played 3 times without their best player in Embiid. While the 76ers offense has traveled well (115.0 ppg on the road), the defense has not. Philadelphia is giving up 114 ppg and allowing teams to shoot 52% from the field on the road, including 44% from deep. Both teams will hit at least 105 in this one. Take the OVER! |
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11-06-19 | Bulls v. Hawks OVER 219 | 113-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Hawks over 219 -110 I'm confident the Bulls/Hawks will fly over the total Wednesday night in Atlanta. With both teams off big games Tuesday night, I just don't see the defensive effort being there for either side. Bulls were in a heated contest against the Lakers at home and the Hawks pulled out a late rally to upset the Spurs. OVER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 games for the Bulls. I know the UNDER is a perfect 6-0 in Atlanta's 6 games, but they played several games without their best player in Trae Young. He returned against SA and scored 28 points in the 2nd half after a slow start. Hawks defense took a huge hit with John Collins getting handed a 25-game suspension, so Atlanta will have to rely on the offense even more. OVER is 7-3-1 in Chicago's last 11 off a SU loss and 4-1 in Atlanta's last 5 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! |
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11-05-19 | Magic v. Thunder UNDER 204 | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Magic/Thunder under 204 -110 Don't be fooled into taking the OVER with this low total in tonight's NBA action between the Thunder and Magic. I actually think there's value with the UNDER in this one. Both of these teams are strong defensively. OKC is tied for 3rd in defensive efficiency and Orlando is right on their heels at No. 5. Not only that, both teams are struggling on the other side of the ball. Magic are dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and the Thunder aren't to far back at 26th. Orlando also plays at the second slowest pace in the league. Take the UNDER! |
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11-05-19 | Celtics -5.5 v. Cavs | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Celtics -5½ -109 I got no problem laying a short number on the road with Boston against the Cavs. Cleveland is showing some fight under first year head coach John Beilein, but that's only going to get this team so far with the talent they have. Even with the Celtics likely playing without Enes Kanter or Jaylen Brown, I look for Boston to win this game by double-digits. Celtics have won 4 straight since losing a hard fought game at 76ers in their opener, which included a 118-95 win at New York against a similarly bad Knicks team. Take Boston! |
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11-04-19 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 224 | 118-127 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Blazers/Warriors under 224 -109 The Warriors are a complete mess right now. They won't have Steph Curry for months because of a broken hand. Draymond Green is out at the moment with a torn ligament in this finger and D'Angelo Russell is questionable with an ankle injury. Without these 3 in the lineup, they scored just 87 points in a 6-point home loss to the Hornets. The only way Golden State even has a chance to be competitive without Curry and Green is to slow the game way down and play hard defensively, which is what I'm expecting here agianst the Blazers. Even if they can't keep Portland in check, this should turn into a blowout and still stay under the high total set by the books. Take the UNDER! |
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11-04-19 | Pistons v. Wizards OVER 224.5 | 99-115 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Pistons/Wizards over 224½ -109 I look for Detroit and Washington to have zero problem eclipsing the total Monday night. The Wizards haven't exactly been playing a lot of defense. In Washington's last 3 games they have allowed 124 to the Spurs, 159 to the Rockets and 131 to the T-Wolves (without KAT). All of those saw a combined score of 140 or more. Pistons aren't a great offensive team, but they are scoring 112.7 ppg on the road and giving up 115.7 ppg on the road. Wizards are averaging 133.5 ppg on their home floor. OVER is 30-15 in Washington's last 45 with a total of 220 to 229.5 and 25-10 at home the last two seasons with a total of 220 or more. Take the OVER! |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -4 -109 This is just too good a value to pass up with the Clippers at home. Los Angeles just lost at Utah by double-digits last week, but that was to be expected given that Khawi didn't play. With Leonard in the lineup the Clippers should have no problem winning by 5 or more at home. Utah has failed to cover 5 of their last 6 on the road, while the Clippers are a strong 31-16 ATS last 47 as a favorite. Just look at the Jazz's road games this year. They scored a mere 86 points in a 9-point loss to the Lakers, barely beat the Suns by 1-point in Phoenix and lost outright to the Kings as a 4-point favorite. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-03-19 | Lakers v. Spurs OVER 217.5 | 103-96 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Lakers/Spurs over 217½ -109 I think this is an easy play on the OVER. Lakers offense has been clicking lately and it figures to only get better the more chemistry LeBron and AD form. Not to mention they have recently just got back a big time scorer in Kyle Kuzma. Lakers have scored 119 or more in each of their last 3 games. I could easily see them getting to that points, but all we need is for both teams to get to 109 and we can't lose. Spurs have scored 113 or more in 4 of 5 games and are averaging 119 on the road. OVER is 6-0 in Spurs last 6 at home and 10-3 in the Lakers last 13 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER! |
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11-02-19 | 76ers +2.5 v. Blazers | 129-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on 76ers +2½ -110 Easy play on the 76ers getting points against the Blazers Saturday night. Portland is getting love here because they are at home, but the Blazers did just finish up a 4-game road trip and have been on the go since the season started (have yet to play two straight at home). Philadelphia has started out 4-0 and will not be overlooking this one. Last year the Blazers swept both meetings against the 76ers in blowout fashion, winning 129-95 at home and 130-115 at Philly. I just don't think this year's Blazers team is as strong as the one that made the Western Conference Finals. Even with Embiid suspended, I still think the 76ers will role here. Take Philadelphia! |
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11-02-19 | Nuggets v. Magic +4.5 | 91-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Magic +4½ -110 Most will immediately look to fade Orlando here, as the Magic will be on no rest and just got annihilated by 32 at home last night against the Bucks. Not me. I'm confident Orlando will respond here with not only a cover, but I like them to win outright. Denver has last their last two. The most recent being a 122-107 loss at New Orleans as a 4-point favorite. The offense just isn't in sync right now for the Nuggets and while it didn't show last night, this Magic team can get after you defensively. Even after giving up 123 to the Bucks they are still allowing just 97 ppg at home. Take Orlando! |
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11-01-19 | Spurs -6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 127-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Spurs -6½ -108 I'm not sure how you pass up on the Spurs in this spot. I know San Antonio is playing on no rest after a hard fought loss against the Clippers last night, but the Warriors have looked awful to start the season and now must play without Steph Curry. Golden State really doesn't have a guy they can go to at the point to fill the void left by Curry. Not to mention they were already lacking scoring outside of the former league MVP. Add in the awful defense they have played and I don't care who the Spurs send out there they should win here by double-digits no problem. Warriors just 12-30-1 ATS last 43 at home. Spurs have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and the favorite has covered 11 of the last 15 in the series. Take San Antonio! |
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11-01-19 | Bucks v. Magic +5 | 123-91 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Magic +5 -115 The books are begging you to take the Bucks here as a small road favorite against the Magic, especially with Milwaukee coming off that ugly loss to the Celtics where they blew a huge lead. I just don't trust this Bucks team on the road in this pot. Not only are they coming off a big game against Boston, they got the defending champs on their home court tomorrow. Orlando is a sneaky good team and while they are just 2-2 to start, they haven't shot the ball well at all. Defensively they are better than people think. They have held 3 of their first 4 teams under 40% shooting. Magic are 8-3 ATS last 11 at home, while the Bucks are just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Orlando! |
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10-31-19 | Heat -6.5 v. Hawks | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Heat -6½ -109 This is an easy play on the Heat. Miami just beat Atlanta 112-97 on Tuesday and they completely dominated after Trae Young went out with an ankle injury. I could see some talking themselves into betting the Hawks at home here, but I just feel that Young is too valuable to Atlanta's success. I've also really liked what I've seen out of this Miami team. Keep in mind that game against the Hawks was the first time Jimmy Butler suited up for the Heat. He had 21 points. Miami's just got too much depth for Atlanta to keep it close. Take Miami! |
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10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Clippers/Jazz ATS NO-BRAINER on Jazz -2½ -105 This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah at home. The Jazz haven't really played great to start the year and yet are 3-1. I get the Clippers have looked great to start the year, but I think they are overvalued because of it. Last time they were on the road they lost by 8 at Phoenix and there's not many places tougher to play than Utah. Jazz are 21-10 ATS last 31 off a non-cover and have covered 3 straight at home against the Clippers. I believe Utah's defense will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Jazz are allowing just 91.5 ppg and just 88.0 ppg at home. LA is giving up 112.5 ppg and 126.0 ppg on the road. Take Utah! |
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10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 215 | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Jazz over 215 -109 I'm not expecting this thing to get into the 230's or anything, but I see a ton of value with the total at this price. Utah is averaging 106.5 ppg at home and will be facing a Clippers defense that is giving up 126.0 ppg on the road. While Utah has an elite defense that is allowing just 91.5 ppg, it's hard to see them holding this Clippers team under 100, as LA is averaging 121.5 ppg. Not to mention the books are begging for UNDER money with this total, as the public will be much more inclined to take the UNDER seeing that the Jazz haven't played a game all season where the two teams combined for more than 200 points. Take the OVER! |
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10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6.5 | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on 76ers -6½ -110 I got no problem laying this number at home with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off a couple of uninspiring wins over the Pistons and Hawks, but both of those were on the road. 76ers are not the same team on the road as they are at home. They were 31-10 at home last year compared to 20-21 on the road. Philadelphia doesn't just win SU at home. They are 56-37 (60%) ATS at home the last 3 seasons. They are also a dominant 24-8 ATS last 32 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Timberwolves are 3-0 to start the season, but two of those wins are against Eastern Conference bottom feeders in Brooklyn and Charlotte. The other is a win at home against the Heat (without Jimmy Butler), where they trailed by 7 going into the 4th quarter. Minnesota just 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and have failed to cover 5 straight against the 76ers. Give me Philadelphia! |
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10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat -8 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA - Hawks/Heat Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Heat -8 -105 This line is begging you to take the Hawks and the public is taking the bait. I just don't think we are going to get the kind of effort needed from Atlanta to keep this close. Hawks are off a gut-wrenching 105-103 loss at home to the 76ers last night. A game the Hawks led by 9 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th quarter. Another factor here is the schedule makes this one a little less enticing for the Hawks, as they will turn around and host Miami on Thursday. As for the Heat, they are off to an impressive 2-1 start that includes a 5-point win at Milwaukee. They did that without their prized new addition of Jimmy Butler, who will make his debut tonight. Heat's only home game was the season opener and they won by 19 over Memphis. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 105 or more in 2 straight are 95-51 (65%) ATS since 1996 when facing an opponent off a loss by 3 or fewer points. Take Miami! |
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10-28-19 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 235 | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Warriors/Pelicans over 235 -109 Don't be afraid of the big number here. These two should easily eclipse this total. Each of the Pelicans first 3 games have seen a combined score of 139 or more. Both teams also love to push the pace. New Orleans is currently No. 6 and the Warriors are No. 9. Both are also struggling defensively. Golden State ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and the Pelicans come in at 25th. OVER is 21-8 in the Pelicans last 29 after 2 straight losses and the average score in this spot has been 138.1. Take the OVER! |
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10-28-19 | Thunder +10.5 v. Rockets | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder +10½ -109 OKC is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog at Houston. Thunder avoided an 0-3 start with an emphatic 120-92 win at home over the Warriors, where they had a 42-point lead one point in the game. OKC also covered in a 5-point loss as a 9-point dog at Utah. No question they are going to be up for this one. Houston has failed to cover each of their first two as they are simply being overvalued by the books to start the year. They were lucky to leave with a 126-123 win at home against the Pelicans on Saturday, a game they were favored by 12. Look for the Thunder to keep this much closer than the books anticipate. Take Oklahoma City! |
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10-28-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Magic +4½ -105 Most are going to be tempted to take the Raptors here laying what looks like a short number at home against the Magic, who have failed to cover each of their first two games. I like Orlando quite a bit at this price. What people are going to overlook with Toronto is them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, all 3 at different venues. This is only the second game in the last 5 days for Orlando. Magic simply haven't shot the ball well in their first two games and are due for a few more shots to fall. Hard to see Toronto's defense being at it's best playing 3 in 4. Road dogs who had a losing record the previous year and off a road loss are 37-12 ATS (76%) ATS last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! |
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10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs -2 -109 The Mavs are definitely worth a look here as a slim home favorite against the Blazers. I think Dallas is even better than anticipated and the Mavs have started out 2-0. Portland on the other hand is a team that came into this season way overvalued after last year's trip to the Western Conference Finals. Portland won last time out at Sacramento, but that's not saying much given how bad the Kings have looked to start the season. I just don't think this will be a very profitable team on the road, especially early on, as it will take some time for the books to adjust to how much worse off this year's team is. Mavs are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Blazers are a mere 2-8 ATS last 10 times they have played the Mavs on the road. Take Dallas! |
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10-26-19 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 228 | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night Total KNOCKOUT on Clippers/Suns under 228 -110 I think these two teams will fly past the total Saturday night. The rest of the league has to be a bit worried with what they are seeing from the Clippers, as they look every bit as good as we thought they we would Khawi and they are going to be adding Paul George to the mix here shortly. Clippers have featured the most efficient offense in the league at 123.6 points per 100 possessions. The next best is the hawks at 116.7. The defense was great the first two games, but one was against a Lakers team that is the slowest pace team in the league and the other against a Warriors team that looks to be in big trouble with their lack of scoring options. I don't think the Clippers will bring that same intensity on defense against the Suns on the road and I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams score into the 120's. Take the OVER! |
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10-26-19 | Pelicans +11 v. Rockets | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA - Southwest Division PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pelicans +11 -110 I absolutely love the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Rockets. I think with the Pelicans off a hard fought loss last night, most will be looking to fade them in the second of a back-to-back against a Houston team looking to rebound from a loss to the Bucks in their season opener. I just think there's enough talent with New Orleans, even without Zion, to keep this within single digits. Big thing here on no rest is the Pelicans are a very deep team. They had 10 guys play at least 14 minutes last night with no one playing more than 33. Houston has a lot of star-power, especially with the 1-2 punch of Westbrook and Harden. It has a chance to be special, but it's going to take some time for the chemistry to form. Thus making the Rockets a team to fade early on, especially when they are big favorites like this. Take New Orleans! |
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10-25-19 | Blazers v. Kings OVER 225 | Top | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA - Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Kings over 225 -110 I look for the Blazers and Kings to fly past the total tonight. Sacramento let the Suns of all teams shoot 50% from the field in their season opener. That says a lot about this team and the effort they will be giving on the defensive side of the ball. The offense did manage just 95 points on 39% shooting, but I would expect a much better showing from the offense at home. Blazers also due for a much better shooting night after connecting on just 41% against a really good Denver team. OVER is 18-7-1 last 26 Blazers games after they failed to cover the spread and 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs a team with losing record at or below 40%. Take the OVER! |
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10-25-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +3½ -110 Book are begging you to take the Celtics at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors and the public is taking the bait. It was not an impressive start for Boston in their opening loss to the 76ers. Celtics shot a miserable 36.7% from the field. Toronto is a team that I think people are sleeping on, which is rare thing for the defending champs to not get any love, but that will happen when you lose your best player. No question this isn't as good a team without Leonard, but it's still one of the better rosters in the east. People still don't realize how good Siakam is. Celtics just 5-16 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a road loss and just 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home. Take Toronto! |
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10-23-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 218 | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Blazers under 218 -109 You will hear a lot about the offensive playmakers on both sides of the ball in this game, but I think we are going to see the two defenses shine. This season opener means a little more, especially to the Nuggets, as the Blazers knocked them out of the playoffs last year. I also think Portland is still a team playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they just continue to not get the respect they feel they deserve. This team just went to the Western Conference Finals and yet no one is picking them as a title contender. I expect as close to a playoff-like atmosphere as you can expect this early in the season. I also think we are getting a few points of value here with the books inflating the total in a nationally televised game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-19 | Cavs v. Magic -8 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Magic -8 -109 I got no problem laying the big number here with Orlando at home against the Cavs. Cleveland added another talented point guard in Garland, but already got a young stud point guard in Sexton. I'm not convinced these two will be a good fit together. Also, there's just not a ton of talent on this roster. Magic basically brought everyone back from a team that improved by 17 wins last year. I think this is a sneaky good team and that continuity should be a big advantage early in the season. I see the Magic jumping all over the Cavs early and coasting to a double-digit win. Take Orlando! |
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10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA - Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Clippers under 226½ -110 I think the books have completely missed the mark with the total in tonight's highly anticipated season opener between the Clippers and Lakers. I think we are seeing a high number because the Lakers brought in AD and the Clippers added Kawhi and George. However, George is not ready to play and Lakers will be without Kuzma. You got two of the very best defensive players on the same team in Leonard and Patrick Peverley. Lakers got LeBron and AD and a bunch of guys that can play defense in Rondo, Howard, Bradley Green, etc. I'm expecting playoff like intensity from both teams in this game and a bit of a slower pace. Total should be closer to 215 than 225. Take the UNDER! |
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06-13-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Game 6 NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors +3½ -109 I cashed in on the Warriors as a dog in Game 5 at Toronto. A big reason for that is, I just just didn't think the Raptors would be able to match the fight of Golden State and the return of Durant. Warriors had their way early with Durant in the lineup, but the offensive woes returned after he left. After putting up 62 points in the first half, Golden State managed just 44 in the second half. Warriors made a ridiculous 20 3-pointers in Game 5 and yet they still needed a ridiculous comeback in the final couple minutes to squeak out a 106-105 win. That's a massive concern, as it's unlikely Golden State shoots that well again. The Raptors already won twice at Oracle in the series and their intensity will be up a notch in this one. I don't see this thing extending to a Game 7. Take Toronto! |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +4 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 61 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors +4 -115 As difficult as it may be to back Golden State after just watching them lose two straight at home, I don't the series ends tonight. With or without Durant. However, I do think we are finally going to see Durant and just having him on the floor changes the game. If he plays, it's going to be a heck of lot harder on the Raptors defense, as they can't just focus all their attention to Curry and Thompson. The biggest thing I like here is that we got a defending champ with their backs against the wall. Golden State definitely has more to offer. This is also a sticky spot for the team up 3-1. It's not easy to match the intensity of the team facing elimination when you know in the back of your mind that a loss isn't the end of the world. Take Golden State! |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -5 -105 While I definitely would prefer Klay Thompson play, I want to point out that I love Golden State to win and cover in Game 4 regardless if he's on the floor. As of right now he's listed as probable, while Durant is listed as out, so you have to assume he's playing. Either way the effort simply wasn't there on the defensive end of the floor in Game 3 and there's no doubt that's been the focal point in the lockerroom leading up to this game. Golden State might be the defending champs, but they know they are all but done for if they lose this game. I think a better effort defensively and Toronto not shooting it as well from deep as they did in Game 3 will get the job done. The Warriors have the fire-power with Curry to score enough to not just win but win going away. Take Golden State! |
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06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Game 3 NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -5½ -109 Even if Durant and Thompson don't play for Golden State, I'm all over the Warriors to win and cover at home in Game 3. Toronto had their chance to go up 2-0 but couldn't get it done and it's always the toughest bouncing back from a loss in a game that you felt like you should have won. Either way, I just don't see Golden State losing in this spot. The Warriors needed to win Game 2 and did just that. I think Game 3 is even that much more important. This is where the home-court shift will lead to a more lopsided outcome for the Warriors, as they should get a lot more out of their role players. Take Golden State! |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Postseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Raptors -1½ -109 I love the Raptors as a small home favorite in Game 2. We cashed in an easy winner on Toronto in Game 1 and with Kevin Durant not suiting up for Golden State in Game 2, I see no reason why we should expect anything different. Toronto's home court edge is underrated and like I said in the write-up for Game 1, I just think this is a really tough matchup for the Warriors without Durant. They got 55 points from Curry and Thompson in Game 1 and it wasn't nearly enough. Toronto also won going away with a pretty average game from Kawhi. Raptors depth is also huge in this series, especially with Iguodala likely playing at less than 100%. Take Toronto! |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors +1 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA - Warriors/Raptors Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +1 -115 I really like Toronto to take Game 1 of the NBA Finals at home against the defending champs. Without Durant I think the Raptors matchup extremely well with Golden State. Marc Gasol has the ability to hang with Draymond, while Leonard and Lowry can slow down Curry and Thompson. I know Klay is a great defender, but I just feel like Kawhi is on a different level and without Durant the Warriors really don't have a great answer for him. Add in the home court edge in Toronto and the depth edge that the Raptors have and I think they should be a bigger favorite here. Let's also not forget that Toronto won both of the regular-season meetings with the Warriors, including a 20-point win as a 8-point dog at Golden State. Raptors are 21-8 ATS last 29 at home after winning 4 of their last 5 and 34-16-2 in their last 52 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Toronto! |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Raptors NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -110 My money is on the Raptors to make it 4 straight wins to close out the series with Milwaukee and move on to the NBA Finals. As good as Antetokounmpo is, you could argue that Toronto's Kawhi Leonard has been the best player on the floor in this series, especially of late. More than anything, I think Leonard's got the much better supporting cast. Bucks just aren't getting production from their bench and a lot of that has to do with the great defense of Toronto. I just think with all the momentum the Raptors have, playing at home will be more than enough to propel them to victory in this one. Take Toronto! |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks under 217½ -110 While each of the last 3 games in the series have gone OVER the total, I absolutely love the UNDER in Game 5 on Thursday. With the series tied 2-2, this feels like a must-win for both team, so we can expect a max effort here from both sides. With both teams giving all they got on the defensive side of the ball, I think we are poised to get our lowest scoring game of the series. Keep in mind that neither team even got to 100 points in regulation of Game 3 and there were just 208 scored in Game 1. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the Raptors last 10 on the road and 13 of the Bucks last 19 off a loss. Take the UNDER! |
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05-19-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
3* Bucks/Raptors Game 3 VEGAS INSIDER on Bucks +2½ -110 I just don't think playing at home is going to be enough for Toronto in Game 3. Raptors had their chance to steal Game 1 in Milwaukee with the Bucks off that long layoff, but blew a big lead in a crushing defeat. They followed that up by getting annihilated 125-103 in Game 2. Milwaukee's defense has simply been too much for the Raptors to overcome, as Toronto continues to struggle from the field. Raptors have shot 43% or worst from the field in 4 straight, dating back to the 76ers series. Keep in mind Bucks are a perfect 4-0 on the road in the postseason with 3 of the 4 wins coming by double-digits. Take Milwaukee! |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf Finals GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers +8 -110 Really like the value here with Portland as a near double-digit dog in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. I wasn't surprised to see the Blazers struggle in Game 1. In fact, I had a strong play on Golden State in that one. I just thought it was asking a lot for Portland to play well in that spot. It's hard enough playing on the road in the postseason at Golden State. It's that much harder when coming off a Game 7, especially when that Game 7 was played in altitude. While it's only been one day between games, I think we see a very different Blazers team tonight. The other huge key here is that Durant is not expected to play. I get that Curry and Thompson were great in Game 1, but it will be tough for the two to combine for another 62 points and 12 made 3-pointers. Not saying the Blazers will win, but I expect this to be a dog fight the whole way. Take Portland! |
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05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Raptors Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors +6½ -110 I really like the value here with Toronto as a pretty decent road dog in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Bucks. I know the Raptors just played Game 7 against the 76ers on Sunday, but two days is more than enough to recover. I actually think the Bucks are the team that is going to be most affected by rest. Milwaukee only needed 5 games to put away the Celtics in the second round and thus haven't played in a week. I think no game action for that long really makes it tough on a team to come out sharp. I look for the Raptors to take control early and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went on to win the game. Take Toronto! |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Warriors -7 -110 Analysis will be posted shortly |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 207.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on 76ers/Raptors over 207½ -109 I know that the defensive effort will be there for both teams in Game 7, but I just can't pass up on the value here with the OVER at this price. While both teams have flashed great defense in the postseason, especially the Raptors, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power on the floor for these two to not reach at least 210 points. Each of the last 2 games have went OVER the total and both of those were blowouts. I think this one is going to be a lot closer and even more high-scoring than the last two. OVER is 17-6 in the 76ers last 23 road games with a total set between 200 and 209.5. Over is also 34-19 in the Raptors last 53 when revenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. Take the OVER! |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -6 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs - Warriors/Rockets Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -6 -110 I'll back Houston in a must-win at home against the Warriors in Game 6. With Golden State up 3-2 in the series, it's win or season over for the Rockets. In a change of events from last year, the Warriors will be the ones trying to close out a series without one of their best players. Last year the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before losing Chris Paul to an injury. Warriors won Game 6 at home 115-86 and followed that up with a win at Houston in Game 7. Rockets will look to take a similar path, as Golden State will be without Kevin Durant. I get the Warriors still have Curry, Thompson and Green, but Houston now without a doubt has the best player on the floor in Harden and in my opinion are the better defensive team. I think the Rockets roll here. Take Houston! |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on 76ers +2 -110 Analysis will be posted shortly |
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05-06-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 108-112 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 VEGAS INSIDER on Warriors + Not a shocker that Houston won Game 3, but it wasn't easy. The Rockets needed overtime and 41 points from James Harden to squeak out a 5-point win. Not to mention another 30 points from Eric Gordon. Warriors also almost won the game with Steph Curry shooting a mere 7 of 23 from the field (2-9 from 3-pt) and finishing with just 17 points. I just think it's going to be hard for Houston to do that in Game 4. Golden State does not want to let this thing go back home tied 2-2. The Warriors are on a mission to 3-peat and I expect them to show up in a big way and get the win here. Take Golden State! |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Wiseguy Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors + A lot of people will be quick to lay the short number with Houston at home in Game 3, as everyone sees this as a must-win for the Rockets, who are down 0-2 in the series. No denying how big a game this is for Houston, but I believe the Warriors will also be out to send a message. Last thing Golden State wants to do is give Houston life and I think they come out extremely motivated to go up 3-0. While the Rockets more than held their own on the road in Games 1 & 2, they continued to struggle from the field. Houston hasn't eclipsed 110 points in 5 straight and have shut under 45% from the field in 4 of their last 5. Warriors are 15-5 ATS last 2 seasons in the 2nd half of the year vs a team with a winning record and have covered 7 of their last 8 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Rockets are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 when playing on 3 days of rest. Take Golden State! |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks UNDER No need to overthink this one. Big time value here with the UNDER at this number. While Game 2 went OVER the mark, it do so just barely and was a bit of a fluke given how poorly both teams shot overall. Despite scoring 123 points, the Bucks only shot 43.8% from the field. Boston was even worse at 39.5%. The only reason the game went over is the Bucks made 20 3-pointers and the two combined to go 49 for 58 (84%) from the free throw line. These two only combined for 202 points in Game 1 and I still think we have yet to see a true defensive game between these two. I think the Celtics defense is really going to benefit from playing at home, and Milwaukee is going to be extremely motivated to take back homecourt in the series. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to break 100 points. Take the UNDER! |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 215 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER I just don't know how you don't play the UNDER at this number given what we have seen in the first two games of the series. Game 1 had a total of 223 and it ended up with a combined score of 203. They lowered the total down to 219.5 for Game and it still wasn't close. This time they only managed 183 points. I don't see any reason to expect anything but another low-scoring game. Toronto has yet to allow an opponent to shoot better than 42% from the field in any game this postsesaon. They have held the 76ers under 40% in both games. They have also not allowed more than 96 points in any game since Game 1 of the first round against Orlando. You also have to factor in that Embiid is not 100% and when he's not right the 76ers offense can really struggle to score in the halfcourt. I think Philly understands that for them to win this series they have to play with same defensive intensity that they brought to the table in Game 2. Take the UNDER! |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -3.5 | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Blazers/Nuggets Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets - I just don't feel like the books are giving the Nuggets the respect they deserve on their home floor. Denver won 121-113 in Game 1 at home and did so with Portland shooting 51% from the field and Damian Lillard going off for 39 points. Nuggets are now 38-8 on their home floor this season, where they are winning on average by 10+ ppg. Blazers aren't a great road team and I think they simply played as good as they could in Game 1. Keep in mind Portland went into Game 1 on 5 days of rest, while Denver was playing on just 1-day of rest after their Game 7 win over the Spurs. Nuggets 13-5 ATS last 18 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 18-4 ATS last 22 at home when coming off a game where they covered the spread. Take Denver! |
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04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 112-90 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Semifinals GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucks - A lot of people are going to be quick to take the points with Boston, especially after watching the Celtics sweep the Pacers in the first round. I just think that's a huge mistake, as I not only think the Bucks cover the big number, but win here in a blowout. Milwaukee is 35-8 at home this season and in their two home games against Detroit in the first round, they won 121-86 in Game 1 and 120-99 in Game 2. A lot of people overlook just how good this Bucks team is defensively. Pistons shot a miserable 38.8% from the field against the Bucks in the first round. Boston won with their defense in their series with the Pacers, but stopping Milwaukee's offense will prove to be a much harder task. Bucks are 44-29 ATS as a favorite this season, which includes a 23-12 ATS mark when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Love the value here with Toronto at home, as this just has the feeling of a series where the home team is going to have a massive edge throughout. While both of these teams started out the first round with a Game 1 loss at home only to win 4 straight, I came away a lot more impressed with Toronto than I was with Philadelphia. The fact that Embiid is sitting out playoff games is a bad bad sign for the 76ers. Hard to believe he's not playing through some pain. He's the guy that really makes Philly so dangerous and I just don't trust them on the road without him at 100%. Two other key things in this matchup that I believe favor the Raptors is their depth and their defense. I think they have a massive edge in both areas of the game. Take Toronto! |
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Jimmy Boyd NBA Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-03-19 | Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5 | 118-97 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
12-03-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +3 | 127-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
12-02-19 | Pacers v. Grizzlies +10 | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
12-02-19 | Suns -4.5 v. Hornets | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
12-01-19 | Mavs +7 v. Lakers | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
12-01-19 | Celtics v. Knicks +8 | 113-104 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
11-30-19 | Pacers v. 76ers OVER 206 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
11-29-19 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 235 | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
11-29-19 | Raptors -3.5 v. Magic | 90-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
11-29-19 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 216.5 | 107-112 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
11-27-19 | Lakers v. Pelicans +6.5 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
11-27-19 | Knicks +10.5 v. Raptors | 98-126 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
11-27-19 | Nets +7.5 v. Celtics | 110-121 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
11-26-19 | Wizards v. Nuggets OVER 226.5 | 104-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
11-25-19 | Lakers v. Spurs +5.5 | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
11-25-19 | Kings v. Celtics UNDER 208.5 | 102-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
11-25-19 | Magic v. Pistons UNDER 206.5 | 88-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets UNDER 231.5 | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
11-23-19 | Blazers v. Cavs OVER 223 | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
11-23-19 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +7.5 | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers UNDER 228 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
11-22-19 | Heat v. Bulls UNDER 216.5 | 116-108 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
11-21-19 | Pelicans v. Suns -3.5 | Top | 124-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
11-20-19 | Rockets +2 v. Nuggets | 95-105 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
11-20-19 | Magic +4 v. Raptors | 97-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
11-20-19 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 208 | 97-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
11-19-19 | Suns +3 v. Kings | 116-120 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
11-18-19 | Spurs v. Mavs UNDER 225 | 110-117 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 208.5 | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic UNDER 223 | 121-125 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
11-17-19 | 76ers v. Cavs +7 | Top | 114-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
11-16-19 | Blazers v. Spurs UNDER 228 | 121-116 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
11-16-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Pacers | 102-83 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
11-15-19 | Pistons v. Hornets OVER 219 | 106-109 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
11-15-19 | Pistons -3 v. Hornets | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
11-14-19 | Clippers -4 v. Pelicans | 127-132 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | 108-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
11-13-19 | 76ers v. Magic OVER 204 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
11-13-19 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hornets | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
11-12-19 | Blazers v. Kings +2.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
11-12-19 | Knicks v. Bulls UNDER 213.5 | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
11-11-19 | Jazz v. Warriors +8.5 | 122-108 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
11-11-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Pelicans | 122-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
11-10-19 | Cavs v. Knicks UNDER 214 | 108-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
11-10-19 | Bucks v. Thunder +8 | 121-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
11-09-19 | Celtics v. Spurs -1 | 135-115 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
11-08-19 | 76ers +5 v. Nuggets | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
11-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans +2.5 | 122-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
11-08-19 | Cavs +5 v. Wizards | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
11-07-19 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 228 | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
11-06-19 | 76ers v. Jazz OVER 210.5 | 104-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
11-06-19 | Bulls v. Hawks OVER 219 | 113-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
11-05-19 | Magic v. Thunder UNDER 204 | 94-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
11-05-19 | Celtics -5.5 v. Cavs | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
11-04-19 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 224 | 118-127 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
11-04-19 | Pistons v. Wizards OVER 224.5 | 99-115 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
11-03-19 | Lakers v. Spurs OVER 217.5 | 103-96 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
11-02-19 | 76ers +2.5 v. Blazers | 129-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
11-02-19 | Nuggets v. Magic +4.5 | 91-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
11-01-19 | Spurs -6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 127-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
11-01-19 | Bucks v. Magic +5 | 123-91 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
10-31-19 | Heat -6.5 v. Hawks | 106-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 215 | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6.5 | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat -8 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-28-19 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 235 | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
10-28-19 | Thunder +10.5 v. Rockets | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
10-28-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10-26-19 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 228 | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
10-26-19 | Pelicans +11 v. Rockets | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
10-25-19 | Blazers v. Kings OVER 225 | Top | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10-25-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
10-23-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 218 | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10-23-19 | Cavs v. Magic -8 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
06-13-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
06-10-19 | Warriors +4 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 61 h 51 m | Show |
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 51 m | Show |
05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors +1 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
05-19-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
05-16-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 207.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 60 m | Show |
05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -6 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
05-06-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 108-112 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 215 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -3.5 | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 112-90 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |