3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Phillies +

I like the value here with Philadelphia as a decently priced road dog against the Cardinals on Thursday. These two teams are headed in different directions. The Phillies come in having won 6 of their last 7, while St Louis is just 3-5 in their last 8. Keep in mind this poor stretch started when Yadier Molina went to the DL and the Cardinals simply aren't the same team without him on the field. 

The other key here is I just don't trust St Louis starter Luke Weaver, who has really disappointment so far in 2018 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. Weaver did pitch well in his last start, going 5 scoreless against the Padres, but that was in San Diego. That's now 5 straight starts where Weaver has failed to complete 6 innings. He's also got a mere 5.40 ERA and 1.267 WHIP in 3 home starts. Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 10-1 in their last 11 vs the NL Central. Take Philadelphia! 

3* MLB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Orioles +

I like the value here with Baltimore as a huge dog on the road against division rival Boston. There's no arguing that the Red Sox should be favored at home against the Orioles, but this line is way too much given the starting pitching matchup. 

Boston will send out David Price, who is simply overvalued. Price often gets treated like an elite ace, despite the fact that he's not pitched well. He's a mere 3-4 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 8 starts this season. He had one of his better starts last time out and gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in just 5 2/3 innings. He's also 0-2 with a  5.93 ERA and 1.683 in 3 starts at Fenway this season. 

Baltimore will give the rock to Kevin Gausman, who is really throwing the ball well right now. Gausman has a 1.23 ERA and 1.045 over his last 3 starts and a 1.80 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in 3 road outings. It's also worth noting that in his last 2 starts against the Red Sox last year, Gausman didn't allow in 15 2/3 innings. Take Baltimore! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Padres +

I really like the value here with the Padres as a big road dog Thursday against the Pirates. Pittsburgh is red-hot having won 7 of 8, but 4 of those wins came against the awful White Sox. At the same time, San Diego has won 3 of 4 and will be motivated here to get their road trip started out with a win. 

It's been hit or miss for Padres starter Eric Lauer, but I've liked what I have seen in his limited action. More than anything, I don't feel there's a big enough gap here between Lauer and Pirates starter Chad Kuhl for the line to be what it is. Kuhl has a 4-2 record, but owns a not so great 4.17 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in his 8 starts. He's also got an ugly 5.57 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in 6 starts at night. Take San Diego! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Angels +

I like the value here with the Angels as a decently priced home dog against the Astros on Wednesday. I know Houston will have Justin Verlander on the mound, but they have lost each of his last 3 starts. Not that Verlander is responsible for the losses, but the offense just isn't producing with him on the mound. The Astros have scored a whopping 1 run in his last 3 starts. 

I think we could see this trend continue here. The Angels will send out a capable starter here in Garrett Richards. Richards is coming off back to back strong outings against the Mariners and Twins and has a 2.81 ERA in 3 starts against division opponents. He also has a strong history against Houston. He's got a 3.28 ERA in 11 career starts against them. Last year he faced them twice and allowed just 1 run on 5 hits with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts in 11 innings of work. Take Los Angeles! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Braves +

This is simply too much value to pass up on the Braves at basically a pick'em at home. Atlanta wasn't suppose to be a contender this season, yet they come into this game with the best record in the NL at 25-16. They are still flying under the radar and will continue to show big time value against some of the top public teams like the Cubs. 

Chicago won yesterday 3-2, but only managed 6 hits and have not been swinging it all that well over their last few games. This is a make or break start for Atlanta's Brandon McCarthy and I think he steps up to the challenge. At the same time, I look for the Braves offense to put up a number here on Cubs' starter Tyler Chatwood. In 7 starts Chatwood owns a solid 3.34 ERA, but his 1.540 WHIP (1.687 on the road) suggest he's been much worse than that ERA would lead on. Take Atlanta! 

5* MLB Vegas No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals +

I love the value here with the Royals as a home dog against the Rays on Wednesday. Tampa Bay has won 3 of 4 and are way over-priced here. Kansas City has lost 4 straight, but finally got the offense going with 5 runs on 11 hits Tuesday.

I look for that offense to carry over and have a big day against Rays starter Jacob Faria, who is just 1-2 with a 8.55 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 4 road starts. 

The Royals will send out Jason Hammel, who is coming off a bad start at Cleveland, but has been a different pitcher at home. Hammel owns a 6.13 ERA in 8 starts overall, but a mere 3.86 ERA in 3 outings at home. Look for him to keep Tampa in check and for the Rays to leave here a winner. Take Tampa Bay! 

3* MLB Early Bird ANNIHILATOR on Cards -

I like the value here with St Louis as a short road favorite against the Twins on Wednesday. The Cardinals come in having lost 3 straight, so the fact that they are favored speaks to the edge they have on the mound. 

St Louis will give the ball to Miles Mikolas, who has pitched better than anyone expected. Mikolas is 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in 7 starts. He's also trending up, as he's got a 1.31 ERA and 0.919 WHIP in his last 3 outings. 

Twins are countering with Lance Lynn. The former Cardinal has been a mess so far in 2018. Lynn is 1-3 with a 7.34 ERA and 1.980 WHIP in 7 starts. It's been getting any better, as Lynn owns a 6.89 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take St Louis! 

3* MLB Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Rays +

I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a decently priced road dog against the Royals. The Rays have the momentum after taking the series opener in a hard fought 2-1 win on Monday. Tampa has now won 2 of the 3 coming off that 5-game losing streak. As for Kansas City, they have dropped 3 straight and 5 of their last 6.

The Royals' offense has managed just 5 runs over their last 3 games, which is a good sign for Rays starter Anthony Banda. The 24-year-old prospect will be making his Tampa debut and is coming off a great final start in the minors, where he allowed just 4 hits in 6 2/3 scoreless innings of work. 

Kansas City will counter with Ian Kennedy, who is just 1-4 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in 8 starts. Kennedy won't be taking the mound with a lot of confidence, as he gave up 9 runs on 8 hits (2 HRs) in just innings of his last start at Baltimore. Kennedy is also just 1-5 with a 5.76 ERA and 1.588 WHIP in 9 career starts against the Rays. Take Tampa Bay!

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on White Sox +

I like the value here with the White Sox. Chicago is widely considered to be the worst team in the big leagues, which means there is going to be value with them when they have an edge on the mound like they do today. The White Sox will send out Reynaldo Lopez against Pittsburgh's Trevor Williams. 

This is a rematch from last Wednesday when the two teams met in Chicago. The Pirates won the game 6-5, but Lopez was by far the better of the two starters. He allowed just 2 runs on 3 hits over 7 1/3 innings. He left with a 4-2 lead. The White Sox would extend the lead to 5-2, before giving up 4 runs in the top of the 9th. Williams only lasted 5 innings, as he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits (2 HRs) and 2 walks. 

That wasn't a fluke start by Lopez, who is flying under the radar because of how bad the White Sox are playing. Lopez comes in with a 2.44 ERA and 1.128 WHIP over 7 starts. Clearly much better numbers than his 0-2 record would lead on. I think he gets the elusive first win of 2018 tonight. Take Chicago! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rockies -

I like the value here with the Rockies at basically a pick'em on the road against the Padres. Colorado took the series opener 6-4 on Monday and I look for them to carry over that momentum to the finale of this short 2-game series. 

The Rockies will send out German Marquez, who has shined away from home this season. Marquez is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 4 road starts. Colorado is 3-1 in those outings and I like their chances of improving to 4-1. San Diego will send out Jordan Lyles, who will be making just his second start of 2018.

The first one went well against the Cardinals, but I wouldn't read to much into that outing. Lyles has a career 5.36 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He's also made two starts at the end of last season against the Rockies and allowed 11 runs on 13 hits and 5 walks in just 10 innings of work. Take Colorado! 

4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Angels +

I like the value here with the Angles as a home dog against division rival Houston on Monday. Los Angeles will come into the series opener against the defending champs riding a wave of momentum after Sunday's walk-off 2-1 win over the Twins. 

I also like the pitching matchup for the Angels in this one. LA is sending out Andrew Heaney, who is red-hot with a 2.12 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Houston will counter with Lance McCullers, who is 5-1 with a respectable 3.76 ERA in 8 starts, but does have an ugly 4.67 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 5 road outings this season. It's also worth adding that the Astros have lost each of the last 4 games where McCullers started a series opener. Take Los Angeles! 

5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Pirates -

I love the value here with Pittsburgh at home at this price. The Pirates have started playing great baseball again and have won 5 straight after Saturday's thrilling 6-5 win, where they gave up the lead in the top of 8th, only to take it back in the bottom half of the inning.

As for the Giants, they are headed in the opposite direction. San Francisco has lost 6 straight and it hasn't exactly been pretty. The Giants are averaging 2.7 runs/game over their last 7 and are giving up an average of 7.4 runs/game during this stretch. 

The other big key here is the starting pitching matchup, which I feel heavily favors the home team. Pittsburgh will send out Ivan Nova, who is coming off a couple of poor road outings, but has a 3.38 ERA and sensational 0.900 WHIP at home this season. In his last home start he threw 8 scoreless innings. Giants will send out Derek Holland, who is a mere 1-4 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.257 WHIP in 7 starts. San Francisco is also 0-4 in his 4 road starts this season. Take Pittsburgh! 

3* MLB Vegas Money Line DESTROYER on Mariners -

I have no problem laying heavy juice on the money line with Seattle in Sunday's matchup with the Tigers. The Mariners simply have a massive edge on the mound in this one, as they send out James Paxton, who is coming off a no-hitter, against 31-year-old Blaine Hardy, who is making his first ever career start. 

Paxton has been throwing at an elite level of late. Last time out he threw a no-hitter on the road against the Blue Jays. The start before that he struck out 16 batters in 7 shutout innings against the A's. Even if he's not on top of his game, he should be able to keep this mediocre Tigers' offense in check. 

I also think there's a good chance the Mariners provide Paxton with a bunch of run support. Hardy isn't likely too pitch deep in this game and he's well past being a promising prospect at 31. Keep in mind these two teams played a double-header yesterday and Detroit's bullpen had to work 8 2/3 innings. Take Seattle! 

5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Twins +

I'm recommending a play here on Minnesota, as we are simply getting too good of a price to pass up on with the red-hot Twins. Minnesota defeated the Angels 5-4 on Friday and are now 6-1 in their last 7. The surge offensively has been a big reason for their success, as they are scoring 5.9 runs/game during this run. It's not all offense, as they are only giving up 3.3 runs/game. 

With the way the Twins are swinging the bats, it's hard to not like their chances here with one of their top starters, Kyle Gibson, on the mound. Gibson has only been a part of 2 decisions, but owns a strong 3.49 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 7 starts. He's also pitched his best on the road, where he has a 2.52 ERA and 0.840 WHIP in 4 outings. Take Minnesota!

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Yankees - 

I'm recommending laying the big juice here and backing the Yankees to win at home over Oakland on Saturday. The A's laid it on New York in the series opener last night in a convincing 10-5 win. I expect a much more focused Yankees team to take the field this afternoon. Keep in mind yesterday's matchup was a prime letdown spot for New York, coming off that big 3-game series against hated rival Boston.  

The Yankees manages 5 runs yesterday despite only registering 7 hits. That's how potent this offense can be and they come in averaging 6.4 runs/game. I think the offense is poised for a big day. At the same time, I think it's worth riding New York's starter Domingo German. In his MLB debut the past Sunday he didn't allow a hit, let alone a run in 6 innings, striking out 9. Take New York! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Marlins +

I like the value here with Miami as a decently priced home dog against division rival Atlanta. So little is expected of the Marlins that they are routinely undervalued and I just feel the price here at home is too good to pass up. 

The first two starts for Miami's Dan Straily haven't been great, but he did show some improvement in his second outing and I think he's going to continue to trend in the right direction. On the flip side of this the Braves will give the rock to Brandon McCarthy, who has to be second-guessing himself after his most recent outing. In his last start McCarthy gave up 8 runs on 12 hits in just 3 1/3 innings tat home against the Giants. This is a good time for the Marlins offense to produce and they should be able to push across enough runs here to get the win. Take Miami! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays +

I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a massive home dog against division rival Boston. I know the Red Sox will have their ace Chris Sale on the mound, but they were fortunate to win with him on the mound a few starts back at Toronto.

Not only do I think the Blue Jays can get to Sale here, but I think this is a great spot to fade Boston coming off their emotional 3-game series against their biggest rivals in the Yankees. Keep in mind this will be the Red Sox's 8th straight game on the road, which I think increases the likelihood of them coming out flat here. 

Boston is just 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a new series and are 1-4 in Sale's last 5 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take Toronto!

5* MLB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Mets +

I like the value here with the Mets as a big road dog in Friday's NL East action against the Phillies. Most won't hesitate here to back Philadelphia given the Phillies are 15-5 at home and will have veteran Jake Arrieta on the mound. I just don't think there's that big of an edge here on the mound.

New York will send out Steven Matz, who is coming off a great start against the Rockies, where he allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings. Matz is 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA, but has pitched much better than his ERA and that's evident by his 1.157 WHIP. I think the Mets have an excellent shot at winning this game and the price here is too good to pass up.  Take New York! 

3* MLB Late Night ANNIHILATOR on Padres +

I like the value here with San Diego as a decently priced home dog against the Cardinals. St Louis just got swept in their short 2-game series at home against the Twins and it wasn't pretty. Minnesota outscored the Cardinals 13-1 and I just have big concerns with St Louis going forward without their rock behind the plate in Yadier Molina. 

St Louis will send out Miles Mikolas, who has pitched very well for the Cardinals this season. However, I think the emotions for Mikolas will be running high in this game, as he was traded by the Padres back in 2013. Not to mention the extra pressure on him to pitch well with how poorly St Louis is swinging the bat. This is simply too good of a price to pass up on the home team. Take San Diego!

4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Red Sox +

I like the value here with Boston as a decently priced road dog in Thursday's series finale against rival New York. The Red Sox had their chances in a 3-2 loss in the series opener on Tuesday. They then blew a 6-5 lead in the 8th of yesterday's 9-6 defeat. I look for Boston to come out here and do whatever it takes to avoid getting swept. 

On paper the pitching matchup looks to favor the Yankees, who send out veteran C.C. Sabathia and his 1.39 ERA in 6 starts against Eduardo Rodriguez and his ugly 5.29 ERA. The thing is Rodriguez has pitched much better than his ERA would suggest, as he's got a 1.27 WHIP. Boston has also found a way to win all 6 of his starts regardless of how he performs. I look for the offense to stay hot here and propel the Red Sox to the win. Take Boston! 

4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rays -

I like the value here with the Rays at basically a pick'em at home against the Braves. Tampa Bay has really been playing well over the last 3 weeks or so. The Rays started out 4-13 in their first 17 games, but have since gone 11-5 with all 5 those losses coming by 1 run or less. I like their chances here against Atlanta, who was fortunate to win the series opener 1-0, as they recorded just 4 hits. 

I look for the Rays offense to come to life here against Julio Teheran, who has been hit or miss this season. Teheran threw 7 shutout innings in his last start, but couldn't make it out of the 3rd inning in his previous start and owns a modest 3.65 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 7 starts overall. I'll also take my chances on Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough keeping Atlanta's slumping offense in check. The Braves have scored a total of 6 runs over their last 3 games are are hitting just .218 as at team in their last 7. Take Tampa Bay! 

5* American League GAME OF THE MONTH  on Rangers -

I like the value here with the Rangers at home against the Tigers on Wednesday. While Texas ended up on the losing end of yesterday's game against Detroit, the Rangers got a big boost offensively from veteran Adrian Beltre and I look for his return to the lineup to really get this team going. 

Most are going to look at this pitching matchup in favor of the Tigers, as Detroit sends out Francisco Liriano against the 44-year-old Bartlolo Colon. Both have been sharp early on, but I think Liriano is due for some major regression. He's yet to allow more than 3 runs in a single start. A streak I see coming to an end. In Liriano's last two starts at Texas, he's given up 10 runs on 13 hits (4 HRs) and 6 walks in just 10 2/3 innings of work. Take Texas! 

3* MLB Money Line HEAVY HITTER on Nationals - 

I like the value here with Washington as a short road favorite against the Padres on Tuesday. Hard to pass up on the Nationals at this price with how well they are playing. Washington has won their last 2 and are 8-1 in their last 9 games. San Diego has won a mere 13-games all season and are just 6-13 at home. 

On top of all that, the Nationals have what looks like a clear edge on the mound with Jeremy Hellickson facing off against Clayton Richard. Hellickson will be making his 5th start and has gotten better with each outing. In his last 3 starts he's allowed just 5 runs on 11 hits and 3 walks in 16 1/3 innings. Note that those 3 starts came against quality opponents in the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. Richard on the other hand is 1-4 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in 7 starts and has been even worse of late with a 6.89 ERA and 1.851 WHIP in his last 3 outings. Take Washington! 

5* National League GAME OF THE MONTH on Reds -

I love the value here with the Reds at home against the Mets on Tuesday. New York is trending in the wrong direction. Even with yesterday's 7-6 win over Cincinnati, the Mets are just 1-6 in their last 7 games. This is every bit a play on the Reds as it is a fade of New York starter Jason Vargas. 

In his first two starts after missing the first month, Vargas has been downright awful. He's given up 15 runs on 20 hits and 5 walks (5 HRs) in 8 1/3 innings. I just don't see him figuring it out on the road in one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the majors. 

I also think we are about to Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo start to pitch up to his potential. He showed some great signs of turning things around in his last outing, as he allowed just 2 runs over 6 innings against a good Brewers lineup. If Castillo pitches anywhere close to that, this should turn into a blowout rather quickly. Take Cincinnati! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG  on Twins +

I really like the value here with Minnesota as a big road dog against the Cardinals on Monday. This is a big time letdown spot for St Louis, who is coming off back-to-back extra inning games against their biggest rivals in the Cubs, with last night's contest going 14-innings. St Louis won both of those games, which only increases the likelihood they struggle to show up with the right mindset for this one. 

I also think we are going to see the Cardinals start to fall off without their rock behind the plate in Yadier Molina. He's especially going to be missed here with a bullpen that's had to put in a lot of work the last couple of days and starter Jon Gant making his big-league debut. With the Twins offense having come to life and starter Fernando Rombero looking sharp in his first outing, I think they get the win here. Take Minnesota! 

3* MLB No Doubt Money Line BLOWOUT on Reds -

I like the value here with the Reds as a short home favorite in Sunday's rubber match against the Marlins. Both starting pitchers have struggled, so this one is likely to which team can put the most runs on the board. While Miami won 6-0 on Saturday, there's little doubt which of these two teams is more potent on offense. I look for the Reds to put up a big number here and help Brandon Finnegan secure his first win of the season. 

Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and the Marlins are 1-6 in Straily's last 7 rad starts and 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs a left-handed starter. Take Cincinnati! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Oakland -

I like the value here with the A's as a small home favorite against the Orioles on Saturday. Oakland won the series opener 6-4 last night and I look for them to build off that victory here. The A's will send out Trevor Cahill, who has been a pleasant surprise so far. Cahill has a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts and was sensational in his only outing so far at home, giving up just 5 hits with 8 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings. 

Baltimore just hasn't been playing well at all. The Orioles have lost 4 straight and are now 8-24 on the season. Baltimore will send out Kevin Gausman, who has a 4.15 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in 6 starts and has give up 7 runs on 15 hits and 4 walks in 10 innings over 2 career starts at Oakland. A's are 6-1 in their last 7 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take Oakland! 

5* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH  on Phillies +

I like the value here with the Phillies as a decently priced dog in Saturday's contest at Washington. The Nationals are simply getting too much respect here and the price is too good to pass up on Philadelphia. Washington comes in red-hot, having won 6 straight, including a 7-3 win last night in the series opener. This is talented Phillies team that is going to come out extremely motivated to get a win here and I expect them to do just that. 

Washington will send out Tanner Roark and have gone just 6-11 when he takes the mound as a favorite of -125 to -175. The Nationals are also just 1-7 in Roark's last 8 starts on 4 days of rest, 1-4 in his last 5 vs a division opponent and 1-4 in his last 5 at home vs a team with a winning record. Take Philadelphia! 

3* MLB Late Night BAILOUT  on Mariners +

I like the value here with the Mariners as a decently priced division home dog against the Angels. There's been plenty of hype early on with the Angels because of Ohtani. Now the media is all over this team with Pujols needing just 1-hit to reach 3,000 for his career. The Angels are coming off a sweep of the Orioles, but Baltimore isn't exactly playing well.

Seattle has almost an identical record as the Angels and are playing some of their best baseball right now. The Mariners are 7-2 over their last 9 games and are clicking both at the plate and on the mound. Seattle is scoring 6.3 runs/game over their last 7, while giving up only 3.6 runs/game during this stretch. Take Seattle! 

5* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Royals -

I love the value here with Kansas City as a short home favorite against the Tigers on Friday. The Royals have won 4 of their last 6, while Detroit is just 3-6 in their last 9. Kansas City's offense is rolling right now.

The Royals have scored at least 4 runs in 6 straight games and have combined for 38 hits over their last 3 games. The Tigers had a decent offensive night last night, but have scored 3 or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. With no advantage in the starting pitching department, this is an easy play for me at this price on the home team. Take Kansas City! 

3* MLB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Reds -

I like the value here with the Reds as a short home favorite against the Marlins on Friday. Cincinnati is going to be fired up to get this series started off on the right foot. The Reds were just swept in a 3-game series at home against the Brewers. I know Miami has been playing better, but most of that success has come at home. The Marlins have just 4 wins away from home this season. 

The bright side for Cincinnati is the offense has been producing of late. The Reds are averaging 5.7 runs/game and hitting .275 as a team over their last 7 games I look for that offense to be the difference here, as starter Sal Romano is trending in the right direction with a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Take Cincinnati! 

4* MLB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Red Sox -

I like the value here with Boston on the road in Thursday's series opener against the Rangers. The Red Sox have cooled off a bit from their torrid start, but are still playing really good baseball and have racked up 10+ hits in each of their last 3 games and have scored 21 runs during this stretch. Given how Boston is swinging the bats right now, I got no problem laying a little juice on the road against a bad team like the Rangers, especially with this being a hitters' park. 

Red Sox starter David Price has a strong 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in 3 road starts this season, while Texas' Mike Minor comes in slumping with a 5.51 ERA and 1.347 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox blow this thing wide-open early. Take Boston! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pirates +

I like the value here with Pittsburgh as a massive road dog against the Nationals. This line suggests that Pittsburgh doesn't have much of a chance of winning this game, but I don't see it that way at all. The Pirates will send out Ivan Nova, who has really thrown the ball well so far in 2018. Nova has a 3.32 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in 6 starts overall and is red-hot right now with a 1.74 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in his last 3 starts. 

Washington will counter with Stephen Strasburg, who is a big name and someone the public loves to back. The thing is, Stasburg hasn't been up to his standards so far in 2018. He's got a 3.63 ERA in his 6 starts and a 5.12 ERA over his last 3. He's really struggled with keeping the ball in the park, as he's allowed 7 home runs. Strasburg might end up with better numbers at season end, but Nova is throwing it better right now. Take Pittsburgh! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Padres +

I like the value here with San Diego as a decently priced road dog against the Giants on Tuesday. The Padres have what I feel is a clear-cut edge on the mound, as they will send out Tyson Ross against Andrew Suarez. 

Ross has a respectable 3.64 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 5 starts overall, but is trending much better than that. Ross has a 2.55 ERA and 1.188 WHIP over his last 3 starts, which includes two road starts against the Rockies and Diamondbacks. It also includes a start against these Giants, where the only run he allowed in 6 innings of work was unearned. 

As for Suarez, he's making just his second big league start. The first didn't go so well, as Suarez allowed 4 runs in 5 1/3 innings, giving up 2 homers. Look for Suarez to continue to struggle and he's likely not to pitch deep even if he does throw well. Take San Diego! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Twins -

I like the value here with Minnesota as a short home favorite against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The Twins have been in a funk of late, but I think the pitching matchup here is going to allow them to get back on track with a win. Minnesota will send out Kyle Gibson against the Blue Jays' Marco Estrada. 

Gibson has a solid 3.33 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in 5 starts this season and is coming off his best outing. Gibson allowed just 1 hit with 10 strikeouts in 6 shutout innings at New York (Yankees). As for Estrada, he's got an ugly 6.00 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 5 starts and is trending in the wrong direction with a 9.00 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in his last 3 outings. 

Twins are 11-2 in Gibson's last 13 starts overall and are 7-0 in his last 7 off a Quality Start in his last appearance and 6-0 in his last 6 starts at home. Take Minnesota! 

3* MLB Oddsmaker ERROR on Orioles -

I like the value here with Baltimore as a short home favorite against the Tigers on Saturday. The Orioles snapped a 5-game skid with a 6-0 win over Detroit on Friday and it's only a matter of time before this team starts playing up to their potential. They are simply too talented to be sitting at 7-19.

The Tigers on the other hand are in a major rebuild and should be a great team to fade on the road. Even more so right now, with the offense in a major funk. Detroit has been shutout in back-to-back games and are hitting just .218 as a team on the road this season. I look for the offense to continue to struggle here against Orioles starter Andrew Cashner, who has posted a solid 3.32 ERA in his last 3 starts. Take Baltimore! 

3* MLB Late Night BAILOUT on Padres +

I like the value here with the Padres as a huge home dog against the Mets on Friday. New York is simply getting way too much respect here because of the fact that they are sending out one of their top starters in Jacob deGrom. The bigger key here is this is going to be a very difficult series for the Mets, who are a long way from home and have already played 3-games sets at Atlanta and St Louis leading up to this trip out west. 

Keep in mind that New York is just 3-6 over their last 9, as they have really cooled off from that impressive 12-2 start to the season. It won't be easy putting up a big number here on deGrom, but I think the Padres can do just enough here to have a great shot at winning this game. Take San Diego! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Royals -

I like the value here with the Royals as a short home favorite against the White Sox on Friday. Kansas City has started out a miserable 1-10 at home and they simply can't continue to play this poorly on their home field. I look for the Royals to get back on track at Kauffman Stadium against an equally poor team in the White Sox. 

KC will have their ace Danny Duffy on the mound for this one. Duffy is coming off a poor outing at Detroit, but had pitched well in each of his previous 3 outings and it's worth noting that 4 of his 5 starts so far have come in day games. The one night start that Duffy had was at Toronto and he allowed just 2 hits with 8 strikeouts in  6 shutout innings. Look for Duffy to dominate the White Sox  and the Royals secure a victory. Take Kansas City! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Oakland -

I like the value here with the A's as a short road favorite against the Rangers on Monday. Oakland is one of the hottest teams in the league, as they have won 6 of their last 7, including 2 of 3 against the red-hot Red Sox over the weekend to improve to 11-11 on the season. Texas on the other hand is a mere 4-9 in their last 13 and I look for those struggles to continue. 

I see a clear edge on the mound here for Oakland with Trevor Cahill facing off against the Rangers' Matt Moore. Cahill was sensational in first start back with the A's, allowing just 5 hits with 8 strikeouts over 7 shutout innings at Chicago last Tuesday. Moore was strong in his last outing at Tampa, but still comes in with a 1-3 record and 5.59 ERA and 1.707 WHIP in 4 starts. He's been especially poor at home, where he's 0-3 with a 8.76 ERA and 2.109 WHIP in 3 starts. Take Oakland! 

4* MLB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Diamondbacks - 

The Diamondbacks should have no problem securing a win at home in Sunday's series finale against the Padres. Arizona will send out Pat Corbin, who has been a pleasant surprise early on in 2018. Corbin is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA and 0.695 WHIP in 4 starts and is fresh off a complete game shutout in his last outing. Corbin has made 3 starts at home this season and in those 3 outings have allowed a mere 2 runs on 9 hits with 28 strikeouts over 22 innings of work. 

Adding to this is a great system in play backing a fade of the Padres. Road underdogs who are a poor hitting team (team avg. of .255 or worse) are just 16-61 (21%) against the money line when facing an NL team with a starter with a ERA of 2.70 or better and a bullpen that has converted at least 75% of their save opportunities. Take Arizona! 

3* MLB  Money Line DESTROYER on Cubs -

I like the value here with the Cubs at this small price on the road in Sunday's series finale against the Rockies. Chicago's offense managed just 2 runs on Saturday after putting up 16 in the series opener on Friday. I look for the Cubs offense to bounce back in a big way here against Rockies' start German Marquez. In 4 starts this season, Marquez has a poor 4.34 ERA and 1.393 WHIP and has really struggled at home, posting a 8.21 ERA and 1.825 WHIP in his 2 outings at Coors Field. 

Chicago will counter with Jose Quintana, who has had an up and down start to the season. The key here is that Quintana should have his best stuff, as he's had a full 7 days off since his last start. Quintana has also pitched twice at Coors and faired well, posting a solid 3.65 ERA, allowing just 5 runs on 12 1/3 innings of work. 

Cubs are 14-2 in their last 16 road games with a total of 10 to 10.5 and have won these contests by an average score of 7.4 to 3.9 (+3.5 runs/game). Take Chicago!

4* MLB Prime Time HEAVY HITTER on Cubs -

I like the value here with the Cubs as a small road favorite against the Rockies on Saturday. Chicago's offense exploded for 16 runs in an 11-run win in the series opener Friday and I look for the offense to lay it on Colorado again. 

The Cubs will send out You Darvish who is coming off a less than impressive start at Atlanta. Darvish also struggled in his first outing, but fired back with an outstanding performance in his next start, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits in 9 innings at Milwaukee. I look for another strong bounce back here against the Rockies. 

The bigger key is the Cubs offense, which will be facing Tyler Anderson, who has a 4.74 ERA and 1.579 WHIP in his 4 starts to open the season. Any time the Chicago gets in a a game that's expected to be high-scoring away from home, more times than not they prevail. Cubs are 13-2 over the last 2 seasons on the road with a total of 10 to 10.5 and have won these contests by an average score of 6.9 to 3.8. Take Chicago! 

3* MLB Money Line DESTROYER on Mets - 

I like the value here with the Mets as a short road favorite against division rival Atlanta on Saturday. New York scored 2 runs in the top of the 12th to take down the Braves 5-3 on Friday. That should give them a lot of momentum going into the 3rd game of the series and making matters even better is they will have one of their best starters on the mound in Jacob deGrom. 

The Mets have won 3 of his 4 starts this season, as he's 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.080 WHIP. He was really on top of his game in his last start, as he struck out 12 batters in 7 1/3 innings against a good Nationals lineup.

I also like his chances of getting some run support, as the Braves will send out Julio Teheran, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in 4 starts. It's also worth noting that 3 of Teheran's 4 starts have came at home and he's got an even worse 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in those outings. Take New York! 

3* MLB Late Night DIAMOND DESTROYER on Giants +

I like the value here with the Giants as a decently priced road dog against the Angels on Friday. The momentum the Angels had going after their 13-3 start was put to rest by an even hotter Red Sox team, who came into LA and left with a 3-game sweep. I think we could see the Angels struggle to snap out of their funk tonight. 

San Francisco will be sending out Jeff Samardzija, who will be making his first start of 2018. Samardzija definitely has the stuff to tame this LA offense and he couldn't be getting them at a better time, as the Angels have scored a whopping 3 runs in their last 3 games. As for the Giants offense, I like their chances of getting to LA starter Andrew Heaney, who was hit hard in his first start, allowing 4 runs on 7 hits in just 5 innings. Take San Francisco! 

5* MLB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Rays -

I love the value here with the Rays as a small home favorite against the Twins on Friday. Minnesota has won 4 of their last 5, but have also played just twice in the last 7 days. Both of those coming in a short 2-game set against the Indians in Puerto Rico, where they scored just 3 runs combined in those two contests. 

It's really hard on hitters to not be out there every day and I think the lack of games will have the Twins offense struggling to score again tonight. Making matters worse for Minnesota is they will go up against Chris Archer, who has absolutely owned them in his career. Archer has made 7 starts against the Twins and has gone 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.932 WHIP. 

The even bigger key here is we should get some production offensively from Tampa, as they will be going up against the struggling Lance Lynn, who has really struggled with his command in his two starts this season. Lynn has only pitched 9 innings and has walked 10 batters. With the Rays trending in the right direction offensively right now, they should be able to secure the win in this one. Take Tampa! 

5* American League GAME OF THE MONTH  on Orioles -

I love the value here with Baltimore as a short road favorite against the Tigers on Wednesday. It's only a matter of time before the Orioles get on track, but they have won each of the last two starts by Kevin Gausman, who has really pitched well after a poor showing in his first outing of the season against the Twins. Gausman faced Detroit once last season and held them to just 1 run on 3 hits with 8 strikeouts. 

Tigers will send out Matt Boyd, who has surprised with a 1.38 ERA and 0.615 WHIP in his first two starts. I'm not a buying it. His first outing came against a bad Royals offense and the other against a struggling Indians offense in poor playing conditions. Boyd made two starts against the Orioles last year and it wasn't pretty, as he allowed 10 runs on 13 hits and 6 walks in a mere 7 innings of work.

Detroit is just 1-11 in Boyd's last 12 starts and 6-21 in their last 27 after holding their previous opponent to 2 or fewer runs. Take Baltimore! 

3* MLB Money Line ANNIHILATOR on Angels - 

As good as Shohei Ohtani has been threw his first two starts, the betting public will have a hard time passing up on getting the Red Sox at this big of an underdog. That tells me the books are confident Ohtani is going to come out strong here and LA will pull out the win at home. 

Ohtani has just 3 runs on a mere 4 hits in 13 innings over his first two starts. What really stands out is he's got 18 strikeouts and just 2 walks over this stretch. As good as Boston's lineup is, my money is on Ohtani getting the job done. I also look for the Angel's offense to put up a decent number here against David Price. LA is averaging 6.4 runs/game on the season and 6.7 when facing a lefty starter. Price completed just 1 inning in his last start and has now walked 5 over his last 8 innings of work. He also faced the Angels twice last year and gave up 9 runs on 13 hits and 4 walks in 11 innings. Take Los Angeles! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Nationals -

I really like the value here with Washington at basically a pick'em against the Mets on Tuesday. The Nationals stole the series opener, rallying from a 5-run deficit in the final 2 innings to pull out a 8-6 win. That's the kind of win that can propel a great team like Washington on a run. It's also a very difficult loss to bounce back from. 

On top of that the Nationals have to like their chances against New York with Gio Gonzalez on the mound. Gonzalez has gone 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 24 career starts against the Mets and what stands out even more is his 10-1 record with a 1.69 ERA in 15 career starts at Citi Field. 

Mets are just 5-14 in their last 19 home games off a loss by 2 runs or less, while the Nationals are 20-8 in their last 28 road games after a win by 2 runs or less. Take Washington! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Angels -

I'm recommending laying the juice here and backing the Angels as a road favorite against the Royals on Saturday. LA has been even better than anticipated to start out the 2018 season. The Angels are 12-3 with an impressive 8-1 record on the road. That includes last night's 5-4 win over these Royals. 

I could see a lot of people considering taking KC at this price given how well today's starter, Jake Junis, has looked early on. Junis hasn't allowed a run in either of his first 2 starts. Those came against the Mariners and Tigers. LA is averaging 6.5 runs/game and are hitting .294 as a team with a .341 OBP. Note Junis faced these Angels once last year and allowed 5 runs on 8 hits in just 5 1/3 innings. 

I just think that given how bad the Royals are offensively, Garrett Richards will be able to keep them in check and the offense will do just enough to secure a victory. Take Los Angeles! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER  on White Sox +

We are getting too much value here to pass up a play on the White Sox Thursday. Minnesota won the final two games of their series at home against the Astros to take the series. Teams really get excited about their first crack at playing the defending champs and I think we could see the Twins come out a bit flat here, as they now face a bottom feeder in the White Sox. 

I also think we are seeing Minnesota's Jose Berrios get a little too much love here. He got everyone's attention by throwing a complete game shutout in his first start, but in his very next start he allowed 5 runs on 6 hits before getting pulled in the 5th inning. I like the chances here of Chicago's Lucas Giolito keeping the White Sox in it and allowing them to do enough offensively to win this game. Take Chicago! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Mets -

I like the value here with the Mets as a relatively short road favorite against the Marlins. New York is 9-1 over their first 10 games and are clearly a team on a mission early. Hard to not like their chances here against Miami, who doesn't exactly have a home field advantage. 

Especially with what looks to be a pretty clear edge on the mound for New York, who will send out Zach Wheeler. After failing to make the big league roster on Opening Day, Wheeler has continued to pitch well in the minors and is going to come out firing to earn himself a spot long-term. On the flip side, the Marlins are giving the ball to Jarlin Garcia for his first ever big league start. Garcia has thrown quite a few innings in relief, but that's a whole different situation than starting. I look him to struggle here against a Mets offense that is averaging 5.8 runs/game away from home. Take New York! 

5* AL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Orioles -

I love the value here with Baltimore as a short home favorite against the Blue Jays on Wednesday. The Orioles are going to come out extremely motivated here to avoid getting swept on their home field by a division rival. We are getting a great price here due to how lopsided the starting pitching matchup looks on paper. 

Baltimore Kevin Gausman has a 8.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in 2 starts, while Toronto's Marco Estrada has a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 2 starts. The key here is that Gausman's poor numbers primarily come from his first outing. He was much better in his second start and owns a 3.12 ERA over 13 career starts against the Blue Jays. As for Estrada, last time he made a start on the road against the Orioles, he gave up 6 runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work. Take Baltimore! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rays -

I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a short road favorite against the White Sox. The Rays will send out their ace Chris Archer, who has had a tough go of things to start out 2018. A big reason for that is he's had to go up against the Red Sox and Yankees in his first 2 starts. Archer has struck out 14 in 11 innings, so the stuff is definitely there. I think he comes out and gets that first dominant start of the season against a White Sox offense that has scored just 1 run in their last 2 games combined. 

It's been an equally poor start to the season for Chicago starter Miguel Gonzalez, who allowed 6 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks in just 5 innings at Toronto in his only start. I a lot more confident in Gonzalez's struggles carrying over to this outing, as the Rays should win here without much problem. Take Tampa Bay! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on San Francisco Giants +

I like the value here with the Giants as a massive home dog against the Dodgers on Sunday. San Francisco is riding a huge wave of momentum after Andrew McCutchen hit a 3-run walk-off home run in last night's 7-5 win in 14-innings. The Dodgers will have Clayton Kershaw on the mound, but LA has lost each of his first two starts, including a home game against these Giants. 

San Francisco will send out Ty Blach, who was roughed up for 6 runs on 10 hits in his last outing. However, Blach was sensational in an earlier start against these Dodgers, holding LA to just 3 hits over 5 shutout innings. That wasn't a fluke, as Blach now owns a 1.41 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 5 career starts against the Dodgers. Take San Francisco! 

5* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cubs -

I love the value here with the Cubs, as I look for them to have no problem getting a win on the road against the Brewers Saturday. Chicago will send out their prized free agent pickup in starter You Darvish. While Darvish struggled in his first start at Miami, he's poised for a big bounce back effort here. 

I also think the Cubs are going to put up a big number here offensively against Milwaukee starter Zach Davies. Davies was hit hard at home in his last start against the Cardinals, giving up 7 runs on 8 hits in just 5 2/3 innings of work. Cubs are 35-16 in their last 51 off a loss and 26-7 in their last 33 road games vs a right-handed starter. Take Chicago! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays -

I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a short road favorite against the Rangers on Friday. This one comes down to the starting pitching matchup for me and I give a big edge here to Toronto in that department.

The Blue Jays will send out Marco Estrada, who will look to build on a strong first outing, where he allowed just 3 runs on 4 hits in 7 innings against a potent Yankees offense. Texas counters with Matt Moore, who was rocked for 4 runs on 7 hits in just 4 innings of work at home against the Astros in his first start of 2018.

Moore has really struggled in nigh games, as his teams' are a mere 9-29 when he toes the rubber in a night game over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Jays on the other hand are 4-1 in their last 5 vs a left-handed starter and 7-1 in Estrada's last 8 starts vs the AL West. Take Toronto! 

5* MLB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Cardinals -

I love the value here with St Louis as a short home favorite against the Diamondbacks. The Cardinals got off to a slow start, losing their first two games, but a lot of that had to do with those two coming against two of the NL's best starters in Syndergaard and deGrom. Since then they have won 3 of 4, including a 6-0 win yesterday against division rival Milwaukee. 

Both of St Louis' first two series were on the road, so there's going to be some added excitement and motivation here in the home opener. It's the exact opposite for Arizona, who got to play their first two series at home and now have to go on the road for the first time. This is also a big letdown spot for the Diamondbacks, who are fresh off a sweep against division rival Los Angeles. 

I also like the pitching matchup here, as the Cardinals send out veteran Adam Wainwright, who I believe will be much better than what we saw last year. Arizona counters with Robbie Ray, who was one of last year's breakout starters. However, Ray wasn't sharp at all in his first outing, giving up 7 runs on 7 hits (3 HRs) and 3 walks in 5 innings at home against the Rockies. Take St Louis! 

5* MLB Interleague GAME OF THE MONTH on Giants -

I love the value here with San Francisco as a small home favorite against the Mariners. The Giants will be extremely motivated here to get back in the win column after dropping their last 3 and they have just the guy on the mound to get the job done. San Francisco will send out veteran Johnny Cueto, who is looks poised for a big bounce back season after an injury-plagued 2017 campaign. 

Cueto was sensational in his first start of the season against the Dodgers. Cueto allowed just 1 hit over 7 shutout innings and took a perfect game into the 7th. While Seattle's Felix Hernandez also had a strong first start, he lasted just 5 1/3 innings and could see him struggling here. 

Mariners won the series opener 6-4 on Tuesday and that's worth noting as the Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 home games off a loss by 2 runs or less. Take San Francisco! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Orioles +

I like the value here with the Orioles as a huge road dog against the Astros on Wednesday. The fact that Baltimore has lost 4 straight, while Houston has won 4 straight is definitely playing into the value here with the Orioles. 

The Astros will have one of their top starters in Dallas Keuchel on the mound, but I actually like Baltimore's Dylan Bundy in this one. Bundy was sharp in his first start, allowing just 5 hits with 7 strikeouts in 7 scoreless innings of a 3-2 win over the Twins. Keuchel wasn't horrible in his first start, but he also wasn't at his best, giving up 3 runs on 7 hits with just 4 strikeouts in 6 innings against the Rangers. 

Adding to this is a great system backing a play on the Orioles. AL underdogs that are allowing 5.4 or more runs/game are a rock solid 30-15 (67%) against the money line in the month of April over the last 5 seasons. Take Baltimore! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Rays +

I like the value here with Tampa Bay as a decently priced road dog against the Yankees on Tuesday. This is simply a great price to back the Rays with their ace, Chris Archer, on the mound. Archer didn't have his best stuff in his first start, but did finish with six strikeouts and just one walk in 6 innings of a no decision against the Red Sox. Facing off against New York always seems to bring the best out of Archer, as he's got a 2.96 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Yankees. 

Tampa Bay ended up defeating the Red Sox and Chris Sale on Opening Day, but followed that up with 3 straight losses. This has been an ideal bounce back spot for the Rays, as they are 14-5 in their last 19 off 3 straight division losses. Take Tampa Bay! 

4* MLB Situational MONEY LINE SMASH on Angels +

I like the value here with the Angeles as a decently priced home dog against the Indians on Monday. Los Angeles opened the season by going on the road and taking 3 of 4 from the A's, winning the final 3 games of the series after losing the opener 5-6. The offense put 22 runs on 44 hits. In comparison the Indians offense managed just 11 runs on 18 hits in their 3-game series at Seattle. 

There's no denying that Cleveland is one of the elite teams in the AL, but I believe it has them overvalued to start to the season, especially on the road. This is an Angels team that has the talent to take that next step and I'll gladly ride them here with how they are swinging the bats. Take Los Angeles! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Blue Jays +

I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a decently priced home dog against the Yankees. New York has won the first two games of the series behind two really strong outings from starters Severino and Tanaka. While C.C. Sabathia got his career back on track in 2017, going 15-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 31 starts, he's going to be 38 in July and could fall apart at a moments notice. 

Toronto will counter here with Marco Estrada, who I think is a prime candidate for a bounce back season. Estrada posted a 4.98 ERA in 33 starts in 2017. Prior to that he had posted a 3.48 ERA in 2016 and 3.13 ERA in 2015. One reason to like Estrada and the Blue Jays in this one, is the success that Estrada has had in his career against the Yankees. He's 6-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 starts (Blue Jays are 10-4 in those 14 starts). 

This is also a spot in which it's been very profitable to back the Blue Jays, as they are 20-8 in their last 28 after losing the first two games of a series. They also own a 20-9 record in the 29 starts Estrada has made in Game 3 of a series. Take Toronto! 

3* MLB Money Line MASSACRE on Cardinals +

I like the value here with St. Louis as a decently priced road dog against the Mets on Saturday. New York won the opener 9-4. The Cardinals got a bad start from their ace Carlos Martinez, as he lasted just 4 1/3 and walked 6. Most will just look to back the Mets here with deGrom on the mound, but I have my concerns with him early on after dealing with a back injury in spring training. 

It's also not like the Cardinals aren't sending out a capable starter, as they give the rock to Michael Wacha. He made one start against the Mets in 2017 and it was sensational, as he allowed just 3 hits in a complete game shutout. He improved to 4-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in his career against New York. Take St Louis! 

4* MLB Situational HEAVY HITTER on Rangers +

I like the value here with Texas as massive home dog against the Astros on Friday. There's no question that Houston is one of the most talented teams in the league, but they are way overvalued to start the year after winning the World Series last season. While the Rangers aren't expected to be a serious contender in the AL, they aren't as bad as the line here would suggest.

The Cubs are almost an identical priced road favorite as the Astros are, yet Chicago is taking on by far the worst team in baseball in the Marlins. Unlike Miami, Texas has an above-average lineup that can put up runs and are certainly capable of getting to Houston starter Dallas Keuchel. The problem with Texas is their starting pitching and today's starter, Doug Fister, isn't anything to write home about. However, Fister is a crafty veteran that knows how to keep his team in the game. I look for him to pitch well here and for the Rangers to get their revenge from yesterday's loss. Take Texas! 

3* MLB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Toronto +

I like the value here with the Blue Jays as a decently priced home dog against the Yankees on Friday. Toronto lost the opener on Thursday 1-6. The Blue Jays offense couldn't get anything going against Severino and ended up totaling just 2 hits on the game.

Look for a much more productive day at the plate in Game 2 for Toronto, as this time they will be going up against Masahiro Tanaka, who went 0-3 with a 7.24 ERA in 4 spring starts. Tanaka was also not nearly as good on the road as he was at home in 2017. He had a 4.36 ERA overall with a 6.25 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 16 road starts. 

The Yankees offense is loaded, but they got 2 homers from Stanton yesterday and only managed 6 runs. I look for some regression here for the Bronx Bombers against Aaron Sanchez, who showed well this spring and looked a lot more like the guy who led the AL in ERA in 2016. Sanchez also has a strong history against the Yankees, posting a 2.40 ERA in 13 outings against them. Take Toronto! 

5* MLB Opening Day GAME OF THE YEAR on Brewers

I love the value here with Milwaukee as a short road favorite against the Padres on Opening Day. The Brewers were one of the big surprises of last year, as they gave the Cubs all they nearly dethroned the Cubs in the NL Central. Milwaukee got even better in the offseason, especially on offense, where they added the likes of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. This should be an explosive offense and I just don't think they are getting near enough respect here against a mediocre Padres team. 

Not only do the Brewers have the more potent lineup, but they should have the edge on the mound in this one. Milwaukee will send out Chase Anderson, who quietly had a great 2017 season. Anderson went 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.090 WHIP in 25 starts. Those are Cy Young worthy numbers, yet no one talks about him being one of the top NL starters. San Diego counters with Clayton Richard, who was 8-15 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in 32 starts. Richard is also just 3-4 with a 5.79 ERA in 9 career starts against the Brewers. Take Milwaukee! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

3* LATE INFO INSIDER

No Analysis on late releases

4* Astros/Dodgers Game 7 NO BRAINER on Houston +

Last year we saw the Cubs win Game 7 on the road in Cleveland and I think we see Houston pull off the same feat tonight in Los Angeles. That day off between Game 5 and Game 6 really helped the Dodgers bullpen, but just about all of their top guns out of the pen pitched, including a 6 out save by closer Kenley Jansen. 

The big concern here is they have to send out Yu Darvish for the start in Game 7 and many will remember how poorly he threw in Game 3, giving up 4 runs before being pulled with 2 outs in the 2nd inning. I know Kershaw is available out of the pen and will likely pitch, but I'm not so sure that's a good thing after his struggles in Game 5. 

I just think this game is going to come down to which offense can produce and I trust the Astros young hitters a lot more, especially after a bad showing like they had in Game 6. Astros are 16-5 in their last 21 road games after scoring 1 run or less, as they have come back with just over 5 runs/game in this spot. Take Houston! 

3* Astros/Dodgers Game 6 BEST BET on Dodgers -

4* Dodgers/Astros Game 4 HEAVY HITTER on Dodgers +

I'm firing back with the Dodgers to even up the series in Game 4 after losing Game 3 last night. LA just couldn't recover from a bad start by Darvish, who failed to complete 2 innings. The bullpen did their part allowing just 1 run (unearned) over the final 7 1/3 innings. They should get a much better performance from today's starter Alex Wood, who is going to be fresh having made just one postseason start to this point. Wood was sensational on the road this season, posting a 2.44 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in 14 road starts. 

Houston will counter here with Charlie Morton, who has just a 6.23 ERA and 1.538 WHIP over his last 3 starts, all of which have come in the postseason. I think we see the Dodgers offense come to life in this one, much like Houston's offense did in Game 3. 

Dodgers are 18-5 in Wood's last 23 starts overall and 8-3 in his last 11 road starts. LA is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 5 or more runs and 8-3 in their last 11 playoff games. Take the DODGERS!

3* Dodgers/Astros 'Game 3' World Series HEAVY HITTER  on Dodgers +

I like the value here with Los Angeles in Game 3 of the World Series. The Dodgers were 3 outs from having a 2-0 lead, but the usually reliable bullpen had an off night. I still think LA is the better team and will bounce back with a win to take control of the series. 

It all comes down to the pitching matchup, which I feel favors the Dodgers quite a bit. LA will send out Yu Darvish, who has been lights out in the postseason, allowing just 2 runs on 8 hits with only 1 walk and 14 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings (2 starts). Both outings came on the road, so no concern with him not being able to handle the atmosphere away from home. 

Houston counters with Lance McCullers and he too has made 2 starts in the playoffs. He's giving up 6 runs on 8 hits and 4 walks with 9 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings. While McCullers pitched well in his ALCS start against the Yankees, he was rocked in the ALDS by the Red Sox. The most concerning thing is how the Astros struggle to win when he is on the mound. They have lost 3 straight and 8 of his last 9 starts overall. Take Los Angeles! 

3* Astros/Dodgers 'Game 2' World Series ANNIHILATOR  on Astros +

I'm taking Houston in Game 2 of the World Series on Wednesday. The Astros couldn't get the offense going in Game 1 against Kershaw, which is to be expected. Now the roles will be reversed, as Houston sends out their ace and postseason star in Justin Verlander.

Since Verlander arrived in Houston he's taken his game to a whole different level and it's carried over into the postseason. He's made 3 starts and 1 appearance out of the pen in the playoffs this year and has posted a 1.46 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings. The most important stat is that the Astros have won every game he's pitched and I don't see that trend ending tonight.

Keep in mind Verlander got a shot at these Dodgers during the regular season this year and was able to limit them to just 1 run on 2 hits with 9 strikeouts in 8 innings of work. Hill has been good for LA, but this Houston offense is loaded and should be able to push across a few runs to secure the win. Take Houston! 

3* Yankees/Astros Game 6 HEAVY HITTER on Houston -

It's hard to go against a team that's won 3 straight, but I just see too much value here in the Astros at home with Verlander on the mound. Verlander has been lights out down the stretch and was incredible in Game 2 against these Yankees, giving up just 1 run with 13 K's, while going the distance. 

Yankees send out Luis Severino, who I'm not convinced can shoulder the load of this game. All I can recall is that Wild Card start against the Twins, where he gave up 3 runs while recording just 1 out in the Top of the 1st before getting pulled. He also wasn't great in Game 2 opposite of Verlander, lasting just 4 innings without a single strikeout. I think Houston's offense comes to life here and they send this to a Game 7. Take Houston! 

3* Dodgers/Cubs NLCS Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Cubs -

I like the value here with Chicago to take care business at home and get back into this series after losing each of the first two in LA. The Cubs aren't a team to panic and seem to relish having their backs against the wall. The offense struggled in Los Angeles, but will return home, where they averaged 5.3 runs/game on the season. 

Chicago will give the rock to Kyle Hendricks, who I expect to dominate this Dodgers, much like he has in the past. Hendricks has a 2.20 ERA and 0.704 WHIP in 5 career starts against LA. He faced them twice in last year's NLCS and limited the Dodgers to just 1 run on 5 hits with 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 inning of work. 

LA's bullpen has been great, but the Dodgers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after 3 straight games where the bullpen didn't allow a run. Dodgers are just 6-13 in their last 19 playoff road games and 1-10 in their last 11 road games in the NLCS. Cubs are 31-12 in their last 43 off a loss and 20-8 in Hendricks last 28 starts after scoring 2 or less in their previous game. Take Chicago! 

3* LATE INFO INSIDER on Yankees -

No Analysis on LATE INFO INSIDERS

3* Yankees/Astros Game 1 BEST BEST on Yankees +

I think the long layoff for Houston hurts them against a Yankees team that couldn't be playing with more confidence after taking 3 straight to overcome a 0-2 deficit in the ALDS agains the Indians. I know Keuchel has owned the Yankees, but he hasn't been going deep in games. Only went 5 2/3 in his only start against Boston and had allowed just 1 run and 3 hits. His control has also been off, as he walked 3 Red Sox hitters. I think New York can sneak a couple runs against him. 

The key here is Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka and can he keep the Astros lineup in check. I think the can. He's been throwing well of late and was sensational in the pivotal Game 3 against Cleveland, allowing just 3 hits over 7 shutout innings. I also think the longer than normal rest between games is also a disadvantage for the hitters. Add in the value we are getting with these odds and I think it's a no brainer what side you should be playing in Game 1. Take New York!

3* MLB Division Series 'HEAVY HITTER' on Cubs +

I like the value here with the Cubs in Game 1 as a big road dog against the Nationals. The Cubs really turned it on in the 2nd half to take control of the NL Central. They really turned it on down the stretch, going 15-4 in their last 19 games. I like teams that are riding momentum going into the postseason and this stage won't be too much for the defending champs to handle.

I also think the Nationals aren't the same caliber a team with Bryce Harper still working his way back from injury. He played in the final 6 games after missing more than two months and had just 3 hits in 18 at bats (no extra base hits and 6 strikeouts).

Washington has gone just 1-5 in their last 6 playoff home games, while the Cubs are 13-3 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a series, 5-1 in their last 6 playoff road games and 7-3 in Hendricks last 10 starts when he's throwing with 7 or more days of rest. Take Chicago! 

3* MLB Situational Money Line 'HEAVY HITTER' on Mets +

I like the value here with New York in basically a pick'em at home against division rival Atlanta. The Mets showed they aren't going to just lay down with nothing to play for, as they rallied from a 3 run deficit to knock off the Braves 4-3 on Tuesday and I look for them to build on that momentum with another win here. 

New York will send out Robert Gsellman, who was sensational two starts ago in Atlanta, limiting the Braves to 0 earned runs (1 unearned) on just 3 hits over 7 innings of a 5-1 win. That was Gsellman's second straight dominant outing, as he threw 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Braves back in early June. 

We also find a strong system in playing favoring a fade of Atlanta. Road teams off a division loss by 1-run are just 16-36 over the last 5 seasons in games involving two bad teams that have won between 38% and 46% of their games. That's a 69% system in favor of the Mets. Take New York! 

3* Cubs/Cardinals MLB 'ANNIHILATOR' on Cardinals -

I like the value here with St Louis as a short home division favorite against the Cubs on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener yesterday in blowout fashion and that's not going to sit well with the Cardinals. The key here is with that win the Cubs have all but won the NL Central, as they need just 1 more win or Brewers loss to secure the top spot in the division. 

I look for the Cubs to have a tough time here against the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez, who has been at his best at home this season and that includes two home starts against the Cubs. Martinez owns a 3.18 ER and 1.104 WHIP in 14 home starts and allowed just 3 runs over 14 innings in his two home outings against the Cubs. 

Even with yesterday's loss the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games against a team with a winning record and are 16-6 in their last 22 during Game 2 of a series. They are also 11-4 in Martinez's last 15 starts after giving up 5+ runs in their last game. Take St Louis! 

4* MLB Early Bird 'VEGAS INSIDER' on Yankees - 

New York needs a win here to clinch home field for the Wild Card game and I expect them to do just that against the struggling Royals who are all but out of the playoff picture. Tough spot here for KC, as this is a make-up game, which has them taking a quick flight from Chicago, where they concluded a series yesterday, to New York for an early game. I just don't see the Royals being on of their game here. 

I also like the pitching matchup for the Yankees. New York sends out C.C. Sabathia, who is coming off a strong showing at home last time out against the Twins, allowing just 2 runs in 6 innings of work. Sabathia also has a strong track record against the Royals with a 3.11 ERA in his career. He's faced them once this season and allowed just 5 hits over 6 2/3 shutout innings.

KC counters with Jake Junis, who has a not so great 4.70 ERA in 8 road starts. While Junis pitched well in his last outing, he's just 1-4 against the money line following a Quality Start. KC is also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 series openers and 3-9 in their last 12 road games games against a team with a winning record! Take New York! 

3* MLB Situational 'HEAVY HITTER' on Brewers +

I like the value here with Milwaukee as a decently priced home dog against the Cubs on Saturday afternoon. The Brewers have lost the first two in this huge 4-game series in extra innings and simply can't afford to lose here. While it's now a long-shot they catch Chicago for the NL Central title, they are now 2-back of the Rockies for the final Wild Card spot. 

Milwaukee will send out Brent Suter, who is coming off a strong start at Pittsburgh, where he tossed 5 shutout innings. He's now in his 4th start back from the DL and will have that pitch count up today to where he can be even more effective. 

Good spot to fade the Cubs, who are just 2-8 in their last 10 road games off 2 straight road wins over a division rival. It's also a good situation to fade Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, who is a mere 3-8 in his last 11 day starts. Take Milwaukee! 

3* MLB Situational Money Line 'DESTROYER' on Red Sox -

I like the value here with Boston as a short road favorite against the Reds. The Red Sox clinched a playoff spot Wednesday, but still have a lot of work to do with a mere 3-game lead against the Yankees for the AL East title. This is a big time series for Boston and I at least expect them to secure a win in the opener.

Red Sox come in playing some of their best baseball, as they are 11-3 over their last and 6-1 in their last 7.  They send out Rick Porcello, who has had one of the least memorable seasons for a reigning Cy Young winner. Porcello is a miserable 10-17 with a 4.46 ERA in 31 starts. However, he's been much better in the 2nd half, as he owns a 3.76 ERA in his last 14 starts, giving up 3 or less runs in 10 of those 14 outings. 

Cincinnati owns the worst interleague record of any club and are just 5-12 against the AL this season. The Reds are just 4-12 in their last 16 interleague home games against a team with a winning record. Red Sox are 10-1 in Porcello's last 11 interleague starts, 6-1 in their last 7 against at team with a losing record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 series openers. Take Boston!