Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-14 | Nevada v. Long Beach State -12 | 57-68 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Long Beach State - This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on a team out of the Big West, but Long Beach State should have no problem making easy work of Nevada. The Wolfpack are in a big rebuilding phase this season after losing their top 3 scorers, including the Mountain West's second-leading scorer in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg). Nevada comes in having lost 4 straight, including a 24-point loss at Nebraska-Omaha last time out. Long Beach State has 4 starters back from last year and a number of their top reserves. This 49ers team has played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point, having already faced the likes of BYU, Xavier, Kansas State, UCLA Washington and Xavier a second time. Long Beach is 4-4 with wins over Kansas State and Xavier, but what really stands out is how they have been competitive in most of their losses. They lost by just 5-points at BYU, 14 at UCLA and 10 on a neutral court against Washington. I look for the 49ers to come out extremely motivated in their first home game since Nov. 21 and that should lead to a blowout win that has them easily covering this large spread. Long Beach State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, while Nevada is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a road loss of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (29-6) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Long Beach State! |
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12-03-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Utah Jazz +4 | 123-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Jazz + This is a great situation to back the Jazz at home as an underdog. Utah comes in having lost 6 straight, but those losses have come against the likes of the Pelicans, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets. The Jazz are desperate for a win and I look for them to lay it all on the line tonight against the Raptors. While Utah is highly motivated, Toronto finds themselves in a horrible spot. The Raptors knocked off the Kings 117-109 last night in a shootout in Sacramento and will have no rest as they turnaround and face Utah tonight. On top of this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, this will be the Raptors 3rd road games in the last 4 days. With Toronto missing one of their best players in DeMar DeRozan, I just don't see them playing up to their potential, especially with a huge home game on deck against the Cavaliers Friday. Toronto is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing record and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they covered the spread. Utah is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 1 day of rest. These trends combine to form a 76% (22-7) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah! |
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12-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs -9 v. Brooklyn Nets | 93-95 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Spurs - The Spurs don't seem to be suffering any sort of hangover after winning the title. After a shaky 2-3 start, San Antonio has gone 11-1 over their last 12 and are currently riding a 8 game winning streak. The Spurs already knocked off Brooklyn by 12-points at home earlier this season and the Nets were fortunate that it wasn't a much bigger blowout. San Antonio shot 51.9% from the field, while Brooklyn connected on just 37.4%. The Nets are just 3-4 at home and I just don't see them being able to keep this one within single digits. San Antonio has failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 games, which is important to note. The Spurs are a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons when they come in having failed to cover in 3 of their last 4. San Antonio is also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing each of their last 2 as a road favorite and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 8 or more consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 84% (36-7) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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12-03-14 | Iowa +8 v. North Carolina | 60-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Iowa + I believe the Hawkeyes are showing some great value here as a 8-point underdog against the Tar Heels. Iowa's only two losses this season have come against Texas and Syracuse and keep in mind that they were just a 4-point dog to the Longhorns and a 2.5-point favorite versus Syracuse. This Iowa team didn't play anywhere close to their potential in either of those games. There's no question that North Carolina is the more talented team, but Iowa's length inside and stingy defense should give the Tar Heels problems. North Carolina has not done a good job of protecting the basketball, committing 49 turnovers in their last 3 games. Iowa thrives on forcing mistakes and I believe those turnovers are going to keep Iowa in this game and it wouldn't come as a huge shock if they pulled off the upset. This is a much better Hawkeye team than they get credit for. There's a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Tar Heels. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who allowed 25 or less in the 1st half of their last game against an opponent off 2 straight wins by 15 or more points are just 13-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa! |
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12-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Hornets +3.5 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets + This is a great spot to back Charlotte, as I look for the Hornets to snap their 9-game losing streak tonight against the Bulls. I expect Charlotte to give max effort here after an ugly 30-point loss at Atlanta last time out, which saw them trail by as many as 44-points. The Hornets have had a full 3-days off to let that loss sit in and the extra rest should pay off big against the Bulls. Chicago comes into this game off a 129-132 double-overtime loss at home last night. Now the Bulls have to turn around and play the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. What really makes this a tough situation for Chicago is they are far from healthy. Taj Gibson has missed the last 5 games and is not expected back, Joakim Noah was injured against Dallas and may not play, rookie Doug McDermott is questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Derrick Rose's minutes in check after he played a season-high 37 minutes last night. The Bulls have lost each of their last 3 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are just 1-4 ATS in this spot over their last 5. Chicago is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when the starting 5 players combined for more than 160 minutes the previous game. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 versus the Central division. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (30-6) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Chicago! |
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12-03-14 | William andamp; Mary +8.5 v. Richmond | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year on William & Mary + The Tribe are showing big time value here in this in-state rivalry showdown against Richmond. William & Mary enter on a 5-game winning streak with the only loss on the season come at Florida in the opener. The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-3 with their only two wins coming against High Point and Radford. William & Mary lost 3 starters from last year, but got back First-Team All CAA guard Marcus Thornton and CAA Freshman of the Year Omar Prewitt. Thornton is averaging 17.0 ppg so far in 2014 and Prewitt isn't far behind at 12.2. Both of these guys can light it up from the outside and that's a big concern for Richmond, who is allowing opponents to connect on 39.1% from the 3-point line. The Spiders are down this year with the losses of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams and simply should not be laying this many points. William & Mary isn't just good enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright. Richmond is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 60 points or less in their last contest and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. William & Marry is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus a team with a losing record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Adding to all of this is a great system. Underdogs with an average offense (67-74 ppg) against an opponent with a poor offense (63-67 ppg), after allowing 65 or less in 4 straight games are 48-20 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tribe. Take William & Mary! |
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12-02-14 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Trail Blazers - The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Nuggets. Portland has already taken each of the first two games in the series this season. In a span of just 3 days they beat Denver 116-100 at home and 130-113 on the road. The Trail Blazers have now won 6 straight in the series. Defensively the Nuggets had no answer for Portland in those first two games and it's hard to imagine they will be at their best on that side of the ball given that they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, following yesterday's 103-101 win at Utah. Denver is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with no rest. It's also worth noting that the Trail Blazers have won 4 straight on the road where they are 4-2 ATS this season. Adding to all of this is a big time system telling us to fade the Nuggets. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a loss versus an opponent and off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland! |
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12-02-14 | Pittsburgh v. Indiana -3 | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Indiana - I believe we are seeing the Hoosiers undervalued at home in this one, due to their upset loss to Eastern Washington last week. Indiana bounced back with a 87-79 win over UNC Greensboro and I look for them to be all business when they take the floor against Pittsburgh. It's not like the Hoosiers haven't shown they can step up against better teams, as they knocked then No. 22 SMU at home 74-68 back on Nov. 20. Pitt has lost at Hawaii 70-74 and got beat badly in the Maui Invitational by San Diego State 57-74. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Panthers are not at full strength. Leading returning scorer Cameron Wright is out with a foot injury, leaving Pitt with just two starters on the floor from last year. Without Wright it's going to be hard for the Panthers offensively, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Assembly Hall. Indiana is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games with a line of +3 to -3, while Pittsburgh is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the Big 10. These trends combine to form a 77% (33-10) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana! |
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12-02-14 | Georgia -8.5 v. Chattanooga | 86-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia - Georgia comes into this game off back-to-back losses against No. 10 Gonzaga (76-88) and Minnesota (62-66) at the NIT Season Tip-Off. I think it has the Bulldogs laying a favorable number on the road against Chattanooga, who they annihilated last year at home by 31-points (87-56). The Mocs have already lost by 44-points at Wisconsin and 22 at Butler this season. They also come in off a 69-77 loss at Kennesaw St, who lost by 47 at Syracuase and 34 at Cal. Not only do those two losses have Georgia undervalued, it's going to have them highly motivated when they take the floor tonight. All this adds up to the Bulldogs winning here by double-digits without any problem. Georgia is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games after playing their last contest as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss. We also find a nice system in play, as road teams from a major 1-A conference against a team from a weak 1-A conference are 65-30 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia! |
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12-01-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Philadelphia 76ers +13.5 | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers + The 76ers are showing some great value here as a 13.5-point home underdog against the Spurs tonight. San Antonio will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played yesterday in Boston. Expect Popovich to be looking to manage minutes with another road game on deck Wednesday and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the regulars got the night off. Philadelphia on the other hand is going to lay everything they have on the line in this one. Not only do they have some revenge on their mind after a 25-point loss at San Antonio earlier this season, the 76ers want to avoid the worst start in NBA history, which is 0-18 by the Nets in 2009-10. While I don't think even the Spurs resting their players and a max effort by Philadelphia will be enough to get them a win, I do it resulting in a much more competitive game than what this line would indicate. Keep in mind that Philadelphia lost at Dallas earlier this season by 53-points on Nov. 13. They just played the Mavericks at home in the rematch and lost by a final of just 103-110. The 76ers have kept it within 13-points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Adding to this is that Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against an opponent who has won more than 60% of their road games. We also see a strong system in play. Home underdogs of 10 or more that who are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points, who are off a cover they lost outright as an underdog are 32-8 ATS since 1996. That's a 80% system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia! |
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11-30-14 | Orlando Magic v. Phoenix Suns -10 | 93-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
4* NBA Game of the Month on Suns - This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the Suns at home against a Magic team that hasn't been nearly as bad as what people anticipated, but Orlando has been awful against the West on the road. The Magic have dropped 19 straight road games against the Western Conference and are in a major slump right now. Orlando has dropped 4 straight with each of the last 3 coming by at least 15 points. The big key here is that the Suns aren't aren't going to be overlooking this game after getting embarrassed by 25-points last time out against the Nuggets. Good teams tend to bounce back from a bad showing like that. Since 1996, teams who are averaging 103+ points/game are 156-84 (65%) ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. Phoenix is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a losing road record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 versus the Eastern Conference. These trends combine to form a 72% (47-18) system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix! |
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11-30-14 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | 50-55 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on UNI - UNI is showing some great value here laying less than double-digits at home against Richmond. The Panthers have opened up the season 6-0 with impressive wins of late against Virginia Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42). The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-2, but it's not surprising to see this team struggle out of the gates with the departure of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams. These two both were out at the end of last year and Richmond went just 2-6 down the stretch to finish 19-14. The big key here is that there's simply not a enough respect given to these Missouri Valley teams' homecourt edge. Not to mention UNI is loaded this year with all 5 starters back, plus the addition of Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four redshirt freshmen. Richmond is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. Northern Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the A-10. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI! |
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11-29-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 | 110-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers + I expect to see the 76ers come out and play as hard as they have all season tonight against the Mavericks, who handed them a 53-point loss in Dallas back on Nov. 13. While this game means a lot to Philadelphia, the Mavericks figure to have a hard time getting motivated for this one, especially considering the spot. Dallas just played a big time road game at Toronto last night, which has them in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. The Mavs are also playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th since last Friday. The 76ers on the other hand are fresh off 2 days rest. Philadelphia hasn't won a game this season, but they have been a lot more competitive here over their last 3 games. They lost by just 8 at New York, 10 to the Trail Blazers at home and just 8 at home to the Nets. Adding to all of this is a solid system. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against an opponent that has won or more of their last 10 games are 203-128 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the 76ers! Take Philadelphia! |
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11-29-14 | Charleston v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 57-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on West Virginia - The No. 21 Mountaineers should have no problem covering this double-digit spread against Charleston. Even though we aren't far into the season, each of these teams have played both George Mason and Connecticut. The Mountaineers beat George Mason 91-65, while the Cougars barely escaped with a 61-60 victory. West Virginia knocked off UConn 78-68, while Charleston lost to the Huskies 57-65. That right there really says a lot about how much more talented the Mountaineers are and adding even more value here is that this game is at home for West Virginia. Charleston is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, while West Virginia is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after a game committing 15 less turnovers than their opponent. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia! |
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11-28-14 | Ole Miss v. Creighton -3.5 | 75-68 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Creighton - The Bluejays weren't expected to be this good this early after losing 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Creighton has had 5 different players lead the team in scoring in their 5-0 start and the scary thing is they have not shot the ball anywhere close to what they are capable of, especially from the outside. Ole Miss also lost a big time player from last year in guard Marshall Henderson (19.0 ppg). Unlike the Bluejays, the Rebels really look like they are missing their star from a year ago. Ole Miss got up set in their home opener against Charleston Southern. While they have since won 3 straight, they edged out Troy by just 10 and barely escaped with a 6-point home win over Northern Arizona, who lost by 33 to Xavier. Creighton is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games, 8-1 in their last 9 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after leading in their previous game by 15+ points at the half and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 60 points or less in each of their last games. These trends combine to form a 80% (47-12) system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton! |
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11-28-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Atlanta Hawks -2.5 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Hawks - Atlanta is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. The Hawks are 5-2 at home this season, while New Orleans is just 3-4 on the road. What I like here is Atlanta is going to be extremely motivated off a tough loss at home to the Raptors last time out and have responded well in this spot. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home. It's also worth noting that this is expected to be a very high-scoring game with a total currently sitting around 206 points. These are not games that the Pelicans have fared well in. New Orleans is just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total set at 200 or more points and have ost these contests by an average of 10.1 ppg. There's also a great system in play suggesting a fade of the Pelicans. Underdogs off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a team with a winning record are 6-25 ATS since 1996. That's a 81% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta! |
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11-26-14 | San Diego State v. Arizona -5 | 59-61 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Arizona - Arizona is showing great value here against undefeated San Diego State. The Aztecs are getting all kinds of respect after back-to-back impressive wins over BYU (92-87) and Pittsburgh (74-57), which has this line a lot lower than it should be. Arizona is the far superior team and will have the best players on the floor in sophomore forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and freshman Stanley Johnson. It's also worth noting that these two teams played twice last year including a matchup in the Sweet 16. Arizona won both of those contests by more than 5 points. Adding to this is they no longer have the services of Xavier Thames who scored 44 points in the two games against the Wildcats. Another big key here is that while both of these teams are extremely talented on the defensive end of the floor, Arizona has the better offense and that should allow them to create the separation needed to cover this spread. The Wildcats come in shooting 50% from the field against teams who are only allowing opponents to make 43.7% of their attempts, while San Diego State is hitting on just 42.7% vs teams allowing 40.4% shooting. Take Arizona! |
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11-26-14 | Florida v. Georgetown -1.5 | 65-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Florida/Georgetown NCAAB Main Event on Georgetown - This is a great spot to go against Florida, who are dealing with some serious injury problems right now. The Gators are expected to have just 6 scholarship players available against Georgetown. The injuries have clearly hampered them. In their last two games they have lost outright at home to Miami as a 8-point favorite and needed overtime to escape with a 61-56 overtime win at home against ULM as a 20.5-point favorite. The fact that the Gators are still ranked No. 18 and will be going up against an unranked opponent, has them overvalued again. While Georgetown is favored, I believe they should be an even bigger favorite. The Hoyas are a well-coached team under John Thompson III and are expected to be more like the team that started 11-4 and not the one that ended last year 7-11. There's a strong system backing a play on Georgetown here. Favorites off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 or more points with 2 or more starters returning than their opponent are 40-12 ATS in the first 10 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 77% system in favor of the Hoyas. Take Georgetown! |
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11-26-14 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 | 82-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Thunder - The books have missed the mark in this one. Oklahoma City may come into this game having lost 6 straight, but I'm expecting a max effort tonight in a big revenge spot against the Jazz. The Thunder lost 81-98 on the road to the Jazz back on Nov. 18 and that a long with their losing streak has them undervalued at home. One of the big reasons that I like Oklahoma City in this spot, is that this week the team has seen both Durant and Westbrook return to practice. Both could be on the floor as soon as Friday's home game against the Knicks. Just seeing these two back healthy is going to serve as a big emotional lift, it also means that a lot of these guys who have been filling know their roles are about to be diminished, which should have them playing as hard as they have all season to show they deserve to keep getting playing time going forward. Not only do the Thunder figure to be the more motivated team, they should have a big advantage defensively in this one. Oklahoma City is allowing just 89.3 ppg and holding opponents to just 40.7% shooting at home, while the Jazz are giving up 104.0 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 48.3% on the road. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series and the Jazz are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to OKC. Thunder are also 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning % below 40% and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a dynamite 89% (25-3) system in favor of the Thunder! Take Oklahoma City! |
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11-26-14 | Georgia State -7.5 v. Oakland | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Georgia State - Georgia State is one of the better kept secrets in college basketball. Last year the Panthers went 25-9 on their way to a Sun Belt regular season title. Georgia State gets back the nucleus from last year and are absolutely loaded in the backcourt with R.J. Hunter (2013 Sun Belt Player of the Year), senior point guard Ryan Harrow (1st Team All Sun Belt) and Kevin Ware (Louisville transfer). The Panthers should have their way against an Oakland team that has started out just 1-4 with their only win coming against Chicago State. Georgia State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. Oakland is just 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record and 3-13 in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record and 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who are off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 74-39 ATS in the month of November since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Georgia State! |
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11-25-14 | Miami (OH) +8.5 v. Northwestern | 46-55 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Miami (OH) + The RedHawks are showing some great value here as a 8.5-point underdog. Both of these teams look to slow the game down and win with their defense, which makes a 8.5-point spread a lot for the likes of Northwestern to cover. The Wildcats lost their star guard in Drew Crawford, who averaged 15.7 of their 59.5 points per game. Without Crawford to rely on offensively, Northwestern just doesn't have the fire-power to blow teams out. That's evident by their less than impressive wins to start the year against Houston Baptist, Brown, North Florida and Elon. While they won all 4, their largest win came by 7-points. Miami (OH) isn't a great team but they are the best the Wildcats have faced so far. Northwestern is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games of a win by 6-points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 2 or more consecutive victories. Wildcats are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 86% (24-4) system in favor of the RedHawks. Take Miami (OH)! |
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11-25-14 | Maryland v. Iowa State -4.5 | 72-63 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State - I cashed in on the Cyclones -6 last night against Alabama and I look for Iowa State to cruise to another double-digit win over Maryland. The game will once again be played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, which is the site of the Big 12 Tournament and considered by many Cyclone fans to be Hilton South. Not only does Iowa State have a minor homecourt edge, but they are the better team. Fred Hoiberg has the Cyclones loaded with talent and are poised to contend for a Big 12 title this season. Maryland is no longer a basketball powerhouse and this past offseason 5 players transferred to play elsewhere. The Terrapins have lost 24 of their last 29 games against ranked opponents and haven't beat a ranked opponent on a neutral court since 2008. Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site and 8-1 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 79% (27-7) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State! |
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11-25-14 | Akron v. Penn State -6 | Top | 72-78 | Push | 0 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
5* Non-Conference No Limit Game of the Year on Penn State - The Nittany Lions are being undervalued by the books after failing to cover the spread in 3 straight, which included a couple of less than impressive wins over Cornell (72-71) and USC (63-61). With Akron missing their top returning scorer and rebounder in Demetrius Treadwell (15.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg), the Zips are not equipped to go on the road and keep it close enough to cover against Penn State. The Nittany Lions got back a ton of talent from last year's team, including one of the top Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill. He will easily be the best player on the floor tonight and that's a big reason why I'm siding with Penn State at home. Akron is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record, while Penn State is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 versus poor rebounding teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards/game. Zips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. These trends combine to form a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Nittany Lions. Take Penn State! |
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11-24-14 | Seton Hall -3 v. Illinois State | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Seton Hall - The Pirates are showing great value here as a mere 3-point favorite against Illinois State. While the Red Birds have won rather easily in their first two games of the Paradise Jam with victories over the likes of Weber State (73-64) and Old Dominion (64-45), but neither of those are real impressive wins. What stands out to me is that this team lost at home to Utah State in their opener. Utah State isn't anywhere close to a tournament team, as they lost all 5 starters and a couple key contributors off the bench. Seton Hall is a program on the rise aren't quite there yet and as a result are showing value against inferior competition. Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 8-0 in their last 8 road games when listed as the favorite. Adding to this is that Illinois State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring the spread in 2 out of their last 3. These trends combine to form a dynamite 96% (24-1) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall! |
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11-24-14 | Alabama v. Iowa State -6 | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State - While both of these teams come in undefeated, Iowa State is the much more talented team in my open. The Cyclones are talented enough to contend with Kansas and Texas for the Big 12 title, while Alabama will be a middle of the pack team in the weak SEC. One of the hidden keys here is that while this game is being played on a neutral court at the Sprint Center in Missouri, this is a short trip for Iowa State fans and I'm expecting them to heavily out-number the Razorbacks faithful. Alabama simply doesn't have the offensive playmakers to keep up with the Cyclones. While they get back 4 starters, they lose All-SEC guard Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg). Iowa State on the other hand has a great nucleus of talent coming back and are one of the deepest teams in the country. Iowa State has had plenty of time to rest up for this one and are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days. Cyclones are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning % above .600. Alabama is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big 12 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State! |
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11-24-14 | Phoenix Suns +5 v. Toronto Raptors | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Suns + The Suns are showing excellent value here as a 5-point road dog against the Raptors. Phoenix comes in having won 4 straight on the road and have dominated when visiting arenas from the East. The Suns have won 12 of their last 13 non-conference road games, including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. Adding to this is that have have had a lot of success at the Raptors Air Canada Centre, as they are 8-1 in their last 9 visits to Toronto. Adding even more value here is the fact that the Suns are catching the Raptors in a great spot. Toronto is coming off a huge 110-93 road win against LeBron James and the Cavs on Saturday, which saw them rally from an early 18-point deficit. I look for them to struggle to bring that same intensity to the floor against the Suns. I really like Phoenix to win this game outright, which makes it that much more sweet that we are getting 5-points. There's also a great system in play. Underdogs who have won 60%-75% of their games are 53-36 ATS in the month of November over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix! |
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11-24-14 | Santa Clara v. Michigan State -16 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Michigan State - The Spartans rebounded from that poor showing against Duke with a 87-52 win over Loyola-Illinois and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy home win against Santa Clara. Michigan State has a young team, which is why it wasn't surprising to see them struggle at Navy and against the Blue Devils in Indianapolis. The Broncos went just 14-19 last year and are simply not a well coached team. They are completely outmatched from a talent aspect and will have a difficult time just keeping it within 25 points. Keep in mind Santa Clara just lost 54-60 at Utah State, who lost all 5 starters from 2013-14. Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against bad pressure teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Adding to this is that the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State! |
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11-23-14 | Denver Nuggets -2 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night Bailout on Nuggets - The Nuggets are showing some great value here as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Lakers. Even though Byron Scott is preaching defense, LA is not listening. The Lakers come in allowing 112.5 ppg and just allowed 140 in their last contest against the Mavericks. Denver comes in playing their best basketball of the early season. The Nuggets have won 3 straight and during this stretch are averaging 110.0 ppg. LA has had a horrible time slowing down Denver's offensive attack. The Nuggets have won six straight in the series and are averaging an impressive 123.2 ppg during this streak. Denver simply has too much offense for LA to keep it close. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have gone over the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games who are winning just 40% to 49% of their games are 31-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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11-23-14 | Florida Atlantic v. Georgia -14 | 61-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia - The Bulldogs missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year because of a poor showing early in non-conference play. Georgia knows they have to take care of business in these games and I expect them to do just that against Florida Atlantic. The Owls plummeted to 10-22 last year and while they get back 4 starters, they lose their senior captain in Pablo Bertone, who led C-USA in scoring at 19.0 ppg. FAU has already lost on the road to Elon 58-64 and Harvard 49-71. Favorites of 10 or more points off a home blowout win by 20+ who have won 60% to 80% of their games against an opponent that has won 20% to 40% are 66-32 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia! |
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11-22-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New York Knicks -11.5 | 83-91 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Knicks - The only real hope for the 76ers keeping a game competitive right now is if the opposing team overlooks them. I don't see that being the case here with the Knicks. New York has dropped 9 of their last 10 after a 2-1 start to the season that included a win over the Cavaliers. As bad as the Knicks have been playing, they are still way better than what Philadelphia is putting out on the floor. There's also a solid system in play on the Knicks. Favorites who are allowing 98-102 ppg against a horrible defensive team that is allowing 102+ ppg after a contest where they allowed 60 or more in the first half are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York! |
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11-22-14 | Colorado -1.5 v. Wyoming | 33-56 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Colorado - The Buffaloes are one of the teams that I think could surprise and win the Pac-12 title over Arizona. The only player Colorado lost from last year's 23-12 team was Spencer Dinwiddie, who missed a lot of last year with an injury. The Buffaloes' have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Drexel 65-48 as a 14-point favorite and Auburn 90-59 as a 11.5-point favorite. Now we find them laying just 1.5-points on the road against Wyoming, who hasn't looked great in home wins over Northern Colorado (78-70) and Western State (61-46). The Buffaloes simply aren't getting the respect they deserve, as this should be a team that's ranked in the Top 25. There's a nice system in play on Colorado. Road favorites off a cover as a double-digit favorite in the month of November are 74-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado! |
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11-22-14 | North Carolina v. Davidson +13.5 | 90-72 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Underdog Shocker on Davidson + The books are giving North Carolina a little too much respect off a couple of easy home games against NC Central and Robert Morris. Davidson gave the Tar Heels all they could handle last year in Chapel Hill before eventually losing 85-97 in overtime. This time the game will be played on a neutral court at Charlotte's Time Warner Cable Arena. I look for the Wildcats to give North Carolina another big scare and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the big upset against their in-state rival. Davidson is 81-57 ATS in their last 138 games when playing against a team with a winning record, while North Carolina is 24-42 ATS in their last 66 off 2 or more consecutive home wins and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after a combined score of 155 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a solid 61% (132-83) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Davidson! |
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11-21-14 | Iona v. Wake Forest -3.5 | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Wake Forest - The Demon Deacons were destroyed in their last game, losing by 30-points at Arkansas on Wednesday. I believe that has created some exceptional value on the Demon Deacons in their home matchup against Iona. Prior to that loss Wake Forest had a couple of impressive wins over UNC-Asheville (80-69) and Tulane (71-49). Iona on the other hand was just lost at Wofford by 13-points in their last contest. Wake Forest has won 15 of their last 19 home games, which is a big reason why I'm not reading too much into that ugly road loss to Arkansas. I have a lot of confidence in 2nd-year head coach Danny Manning and his ability to get this program back on track. Either way, the Demon Deacons are greatly undervalued in this one and should win here comfortably. Wake Forest is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 20 points, while the Gaels are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. These two trends combine to form a 76% (26-8) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest! |
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11-21-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 83-124 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Bucks + Milwaukee is showing tremendous value as a 9-point dog against the Raptors this season. Despite the fact that the Bucks are 9-3 ATS this season, they are still being undervalued based on how bad they have been in years past. Milwaukee hasn't just been covering of late, they have been winning games outright. The Bucks have won 5 of their last 6, three of which had them listed as the underdog. They have just two losses all season by more than 9-points. Not only am I big on Milwaukee right now, but this is a perfect scenario to fade the Raptors. Toronto is certainly feeling good about themselves after their 9-2 start to the season, which is going to make it easy for them to look past this contest to tomorrow's huge showdown against the Cavaliers, who everyone has circled on their calendar early. This is a similar spot to when the Raptors hosted the Magic prior to a big game against the Bulls on TNT. Toronto was fortunate to leave with a 104-100 win against Orlando, as they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter. The Raptors are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and we find a great system in play on the Bucks. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good defensive team (holding opponents to 41.5%-43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5%-47.5%) are 39-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! |
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11-21-14 | Iowa -3 v. Syracuse | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
5* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Iowa - The Hawkeyes are favored for good reason against the Orange. While both teams are coming off double-digit losses in the first round of the 2K Classic, I was a lot more impressed with the Hawkeyes. Iowa had a lead early against Texas but had one of their worst offensive showings they will likely have all season. The Hawkeyes made just 29.6%. Syracuse was dominated right from the start by Cal and this is simply not the same caliber an Orange team as previous years. They lost C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant from last year's team and are counting on freshman Kaleb Joseph to run the all-important point guard spot in Syracuse's system. Joseph should eventually evolve into a big time player, but the Orange figure to struggle early against experienced teams like the Hawkeyes. Teams who had a winning record the previous season who went 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, playing in a game with two teams who have a winning record are 23-5 ATS on a neutral site in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 82% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa! |
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11-21-14 | Seton Hall -7 v. Nevada | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Seton Hall - Seton Hall should have no problem covering this single-digit spread against the Wolf Pack. While the Pirates lost 3 starters from last year, I believe this year's team is better than the one that finished 17-17. They get back an experienced point guard in junior Sterling Gibbs and are expecting big things out of McDonald's All-American shooting guard Isaiah Whitehead. The big key here is that Nevada is in a major rebuilding phase and simply don't have the offensive fire-power to compete with a team like Seton Hall. The Wolf Pack lost their star in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg), along with their next two top scorers in Cole Huff (12.4 ppg) and Jerry Evans Jr. (12.3 ppg). Combined that's 44.8 points they have to replace, which is over half of the 72.4 ppg they averaged in 2013-14. Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing their last game at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game as a favorite. These trends combine to form a 83% (20-4) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall! |
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11-21-14 | Clemson v. Gardner-Webb +6.5 | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Gardner-Webb + Clemson shouldn't be laying this big of a number against a quality opponent like Gardner-Webb. While the Tigers have 4 starters back from last year, they lost their star in K.J. McDaniels, who averaged 17.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while also earned ACC Defensive Player of the year. Clemson simply doesn't have anyone to replace his productivity and that was evident in their last game, which they lost 74-77 to Winthrop (wasn't even a line available on that game). Garner-Webb showed they can hang with the big boys in a competitive loss at LSU in their opener and bounced back with a 80-67 win over a College of Charleston, who just gave UConn a run last night. I look for this one to go right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bulldogs won this one outright. Gardner-Webb is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after covering last time out, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 8-1 in their last 9 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 82% (32-7) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Garner-Webb! |
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11-20-14 | Syracuse -5 v. California | 59-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
4* Syracuse/Cal ESPN2 Heavy Hitter on Syracuse - Syracuse is showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against the Golden Bears. The Orange have been nearly unbeatable when it comes to non-conference regular season games. In fact, they are 67-1 since the 2009-10 campaign. These two teams played last year in Maui and Syracuse won 92-81. I'm expecting a similar margin of victory, though I don't expect it to be quite as high-scoring. The Orange once again look to have an elite defense under jim Boeheim and I think a big reason they are showing such great value is people assume this high-flying Cal offense is going to give them trouble. Despite it being early in the season, both teams have played Kennesaw St. The Orange won 89-42 (+57), while Cal beat them 93-59 (+34). I'll take the better defense and the more talented team to win here by at least 6 points. Take Syracuse! |
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11-20-14 | Fordham v. Maryland -16 | 50-66 | Push | 0 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Maryland - Maryland should have no problem blowing out Fordham and bringing home an easy cover. The Rams went just 10-21 last year and lost one of their best players in guard Brandon Frazier, who averaged 18.2 ppg. Fordham just lost to Penn State 54-73, which is a great sign that they are not ready to compete with the likes of the Terrapins. Maryland is a team on the rise under Mark Turgeon, who just landed one of the nations top recruiting classes (4 top 10 freshman) along with Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter. The Terps have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Wagner 82-48 and Central Connecticut 93-57. Take Maryland! |
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11-20-14 | Texas -4 v. Iowa | 71-57 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Main Event on Texas - You might think Iowa has the size and depth to match the length and athleticism of Texas, but their big guys don't have the muscle to keep the Longhorns from imposing their will inside. Texas has everyone back from last year, plus they added one of the top recruits in the country in Myles Turner. Iowa may keep this close early, but look for the Longhorns to take over in the 2nd half and win here comfortably. Take Texas! |
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11-20-14 | Detroit v. Michigan -18 | 62-71 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on Michigan - Most are expecting Michigan to take a big step back after losing the likes of Nick Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford from last year's team, but head coach Jon Beilein has done a tremendous job of recruiting. There's more than enough talent here for Michigan to beat Detroit by at least 20 points tonight. The Titans are a solid team and should end up contending for the Horizon title, but are simply outmatched in this one. Take Michigan! |
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11-20-14 | Penn State -3.5 v. Charlotte | 97-106 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Penn State - The books have made a mistake by listing the Nittany Lions as such a small favorite against Charlotte. While Penn State lost one of their top players from last year in Tim Frazier, they bring back one of the elite Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill, who averaged 17.8 ppg last year. This is now the 3rd year under head coach Patrick Chambers and I look for the Penn State to be a more competitive team than they were a year ago. Charlotte gets back 4 starters, but lot a key part of their team in point guard Denzel Ingram, who transferred. Look for Newbill and the Nittany Lions to gain control early and win here by at least 4-points easily. Take Penn State! |
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11-20-14 | Charleston +14.5 v. Connecticut | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Early Bird Main Event on Charleston + This is more of a play against Connecticut, as the Huskies are going to be overvalued early after winning it all last year. The big key here is that UConn lost a lot of talent from that squad, most notably Shabazz Napier. They also lost forward DeAndre Daniels (13.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg), 3-pt specialist Niels Giffey (54% 3pt FG pct) and Lasan Kromah (6.1 ppg). While they get back Ryan Boatright and Amida Brimah, they simply aren't going to be as dominant as they were last season. While the Cougars went just 14-18 last year, big improvements are expected in the 3rd season under head coach Doug Wojcik and I just don't see the Huskies giving them the type of respect needed to win here by more than 14 points. Take Charleston! |
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11-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -7.5 | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Nuggets - The Nuggets come into this game riding a wave of momentum. Denver followed up a 6-game losing streak by winning 2 of 3 on the road, including Monday's impressive 106-97 victory at Cleveland. I look for them to carry over that strong play in a revenge spot against the Thunder. The Nuggets lost 92-102 at Oklahoma City back on Nov. 1. However, this time the Thunder will be missing both Perry Jones and Andre Roberson, who combined for 28 points in that earlier matchup. This is also a difficult spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been playing short-handed all season due to injuries and find themselves in the second game of a back-to-back road set, following last night's 81-98 loss at Utah. Both Denver and Utah are difficult places for opposing teams to play because of the thin air. I look for Oklahoma City to run out of gas early in this one, which should allow the Nuggets to win here by double-digits rather easily. Oklahoma City is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and a mere 1-3 ATS this season when listed as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Denver! |
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11-19-14 | Wake Forest v. Arkansas -13.5 | 53-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Arkansas - I look for Arkansas to have no problem making easy work of the Demon Deacons. The Razorbacks come into the 2014-15 campaign highly motivated off after feeling like they got snubbed out of a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has 3 starters back and with some big time recruits added in the offseason, look to be even better in than last year. Wake Forest is headed in the right direction under new head coach Danny Manning, but are not built to win this season. The Demon Deacons lost their 4 best players from last year's 17-16 squad. Take Arkansas! |
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11-19-14 | UC-Irvine v. Arizona -15.5 | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Arizona - While the Wildcats lost two of their top players from last year in Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson, head coach Sean Miller has restocked the cupboard with another great recruiting class and most agree that this year's team is the best he's had in what will be his 6th year at Arizona. The Wildcats have cruised in each of their first two games with a 23-point win over Mt. St. Mary's and 20-point victory against CS Northridge. I'm expecting more of the same against UC Irvine. The Anteaters are a quality team but are simply no where close in terms of talent to the Wildcats. Take Arizona! |
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11-19-14 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Wisconsin -15 | Top | 60-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year on Wisconsin - The Badgers should have no problem taking down one of their in-state foes in Wisconsin-Green Bay. While the Phoenix put a scare into Wisconsin last year on their home floor, losing by a final of just 66-69, that's a positive going into this matchup. The Badgers aren't going to look past Green Bay, especially on their home floor. Wisconsin-Green Bay still has talented guard Keifer Sykes, who put in 32 last year against the Badgers, but the Phoenix don't have much of a supporting cast around him. Look for Bo Ryan and his staff to have a much better gameplan for Sykes this time around, which should have them winning here by 20+ points rather easily. It's also worth noting Wisconsin is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games, which includes a 13-4 record of the last two seasons. There's a strong system in play as well. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points, in a matchup of a major division 1 conference team against a mid-major conference team are 137-75 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin! |
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11-19-14 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Creighton | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
3* Creighton/Oklahoma NCAAB Main Event on Oklahoma - The Blue Jays are getting way too much respect at home against the Sooners, largely due to the fact that Creighton has won 47 straight home games prior to Nov. 26. The big key here is that the Blue Jays are in a major rebuilding phase in 2014. Creighton lost 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Oklahoma on the other hand has 4 starters back from last year's team that went 23-10 (12-6 Big 12) and have added in big talent in Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who averaged 16.2 points and 8.9 rebounds over 66 games the last two years with the Cougars. Simply put the Sooners are the far superior team and should have no problem winning here by at least 6 points. Take Oklahoma! |
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11-19-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 v. Orlando Magic | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers - This is a great spot to back the Clippers as a small road favorite against the Magic. Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Clippers also come into this game of a poor showing at home in a 89-105 loss to the Bulls. LA is a perfect 3-0 off a loss this season and haven't lost back-to-back games in the regular season since last February. Adding to this is the fact that the Clippers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a loss. A big reason why the Clippers aren't a bigger favorite here is the Magic have gained the attention of the public. Orlando is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. I'm confident that streak will come to an end tonight. Los Angeles is the far superior team and the key here is that they won't be overlooking the Magic. Orlando has also had their troubles against the West. They are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 versus the Western Conference and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against the Pacific Division. There's also a strong system in play telling us to face the Magic. Home underdogs who have beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 28-57 ATS in non-conference games over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-19-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Cleveland Cavaliers -2 | 92-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
3* Spurs/Cavaliers NBA Main Event on Cavaliers - The Spurs may have had their way with LeBron James and the Miami Heat in last year's Finals, but James has a better supporting cast in Cleveland and I look for him to treat this game a little different than the rest. I'm also expecting the rest of the Cavaliers players to rally behind James and come out and lay it all on the line, as they look to send a message to the defending champs. San Antonio isn't going to back down, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is the Cavaliers. Cleveland had a minor hiccup last time out in a 97-106 home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. I believe a lot of that to do with them looking ahead to this contest. Prior to that loss, the Cavaliers had won 4 straight where they averaged an impressive 119.3 ppg. The Spurs have scored 100 or more in just 3 games all season and I look for them to struggle to keep pace with the Cavaliers on the road. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS following a SU loss and 3-1 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record and 0-2 ATS this season off a home win. These trends combine to form a 79% (11-3) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland! |
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11-19-14 | Evansville -5 v. Miami (OH) | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Evansville - The Purple Aces are showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against Miami (OH). Evansville went just 14-19 last year, but were in the process of a major rebuilding phase, as they had the 4th youngest team in the nation. This year they get all 5 starters back, almost all their top reserves and added in Villanova transfer Mislav Brzoja. The Red Hawks finished with a similar record of 13-18, but lost All-MAC forward Will Felder and 4-year point guard Quinten Rollins. Adding to all of this is the fact that the Purple Aces beat Miami (OH) 78-65 last year at home. They should have no problem winning by at least 6 on the road. Take Evansville! |
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11-18-14 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. BYU -16.5 | 62-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on BYU - The Cougars should have no problem knocking off Arkansas-Little Rock by at least 17 points. BYU has one of the best back-court duo's in the nation in junior Kyle Collinsworth and senior Tyler Haws (2013-14 WCC Player of the Year). The Cougars are also an experienced unit as a whole with 5 seniors returning from a team that made the NCAA Tournament and are excited about the addition of Wake Forest transfer Chase Fischer, who is a 3-point specialists (17 points, 4-8 3-pts in season opener). Arkansas-Little Rock went just 15-17 last year. While they get back 10 of the 12 players who averaged at least 10 minutes/game, they lose their best player in Will Neighbour, who average 16.3 ppg and 7.0 rpg. The Trojans were less than impressive in a 77-64 win over Arkansas Monticello in their opener and will simply not be able to keep pace with the Cougars in this one. Take BYU! |
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11-18-14 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 189.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Knicks/Bucks NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER The books have set the total too high for this one. Both the Bucks and Knicks have really struggled to get anything going offensively so far in 2014. Milwaukee comes in ranked 28th in scoring at 91.8 ppg and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th with just 93.9 ppg. The Knicks just haven't figured out the triangle offense and as a result they are playing slower than any team in the league. New York is dead last in pace at 91.8. New York's slow tempo and inability to get easy baskets is going to make it extremely hard for them to put up a big number against a Bucks team that is playing hard defensively. Milwaukee is 4th in the league right now, allowing just 92.6 ppg and have been even better than that at home, where they are only giving up 86.5 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Bucks have not played well offensively at home. They comes in averaging just 89.2 ppg and are shooting just 41.0% from the field at home. I look for the Knicks to give this team a lot of trouble. New York's biggest weakness defensively has been guarding the 3-point shot. They are allowing opponents to hit 42% from long-distance this season. Milwaukee is not a team built to beat you from the outside. The Bucks are dead last in the NBA hitting just 29.6% of their 3-point shots. On the flip side of this, Milwaukee is very good at defending the 3-pointer. They are allowing opponents to hit just 26% from the outside at home. UNDER is 14-4 in Milwaukee's last 18 games against teams who are shooting 39% or better from 3-point range and a perfect 7-0 this season versus teams who are making 6 or more 3-pointers per game. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (28-4) system. Take the UNDER! |
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11-17-14 | CS Sacramento +2.5 v. UC Riverside | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on CS Sacramento + Sacramento State is showing some solid value here after a blowout loss at Gonzaga (58-104) in their opener, while UC Riverside opened with a 75-52 blowout win at home over Cal San Diego. Just looking at those outcomes might lead you to believe the Highlanders are the play at home laying just 2.5-poings, but the Hornets are the more talented team. Look for Sacramento State senior guards Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney to be the two best players on the floor tonight. The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. UC Riverside on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 86% (18-3) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Sacramento State! |
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11-17-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Hornets +4 | 107-80 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Hornets + The Mavericks are coming into this contest overvalued due to their two blowout wins at home over the 76ers (123-70) and Timberwolves (131-117). Dallas is the not same offensive juggernaut on the road as they are at home and I look for them to struggle against what should be a highly motivated Charlotte team that is coming off an ugly 87-112 loss at Golden State. The Bobcats went just 1-3 on their recent 4-game West Coast trip, which is also playing into this inflated line. Charlotte is 3-1 at home this season with the only loss coming 69-71 to Memphis. Defensively, the Bobcats have been a completely different team at home. Charlotte is only giving up 96.2 ppg on 42.7% shooting at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats have won each of the last two in the series at home, including a 114-89 victory in the most recent meeting, which just so happened to see Charlotte listed as a 4-point underdog. The Bobcats have been a great team to back off a loss. Charlotte is 31-15 ATS over the last 2 seasons following a defeat. They are also a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss of more than 10 points and 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games. These trends combine to form a solid 69% (52-23) system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Charlotte! |
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11-16-14 | Houston Rockets -4.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 69-65 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
3* Rockets/Thunder NBA Main Event on Rockets - This is a great spot to back the Rockets as a small road favorite against the Thunder. Houston was nearly upset last time out by the 76ers as a 16.5-point favorite, which I believe is a big reason they are showing value today against Oklahoma City. The Thunder have continued to play hard even with all the injuries, but they are no match for a motivated Houston squad. Houston is 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games after playing their previous game against the Eastern Conference and 25-13 ATS in their last 38 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game are 187-119 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston! |
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11-16-14 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -30.5 | 52-71 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
3* on Kentucky -30.5 I expect this Kentucky freight train to keep rolling against an under-sized and over-matched Buffalo team. While this is an exceptional amount of points to cover, the Wildcats are still a young team and Calipari is not going to call off the dogs early - he's going to get his guys as many reps as possible. He did just that in Friday night's game against Grand Canyon, which had an almost identical spread, with Kentucky rolling to a 40-point victory. This really might be an even better matchup for this crew. Take the Wildcats in a romp. |
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11-15-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month on Clippers - This is a great spot to back the Clippers at home, who is going to be highly motivated to come out strong after losing 85-89 at home to the Spurs last time out. LA has had a full 4-days of rest to regroup and get this thing turned around after their less than impressive 4-3 start. While the Clippers are as rested as they will be all season, Phoenix finds themselves in a tough scheduling spot. The Suns will be on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set and will also be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 off an upset loss as a favorite. There's also a nice system in play on the Clippers. Teams who have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a winning team are 71-38 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-15-14 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Drake | 77-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on Bowling Green + The Falcons are showing a lot of value here as a 3.5-point underdog. Drake lost 3 starters from last year and are extremely thin up front. Not to mention they will be without the services of junior guard Gary Ricks Jr, who is their top returning scorer, and backup guard Karl Madison, as both are suspended for the first 3 games. Bowling Green on the other hand has 4 starters coming back and a new sense of energy and excitement around the program with the addition of head coach Chris Jans, who was a top assistant under Gregg Marshall at Wichita State. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Falcons to win this one outright. Take Bowling Green! |
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11-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
4* NBA Big Chalk Game of the Month on Spurs - The Spurs have returned to form after a sluggish start. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back impressive road wins over the Clippers (89-85) and Warriors (113-100) and should have no problem disposing of the Lakers to make it 3 in row. It's no secret that the Spurs have been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league under Poppovich and I look for them to exploit a Lakers defense that is giving up 111.5 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 49.8% from the field and 40.2% from long distance. In the Spurs last 167 games played against bad teams who are being outscored by 6+ points/game, they have won by an average of 11.1 ppg. The Lakers have shown some life of late, which has resulted in them covering the spread in three straight games. I believe that has this line lower than what it should be. Keep in mind LA is just 5-17 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. San Antonio on the other hand is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 off a road win by 10 or more points. There's also a strong system in play telling us to fade the Lakers. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a road game where they covered the spread as an underdog but lost outright are 38-71 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio! |
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11-14-14 | Rice +7.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 54-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Opening Night Game of the Year on Rice + This is a big time fade of Oregon State. The Beavers went a respectable 16-16 (8-10 Pac-12), but with all five starters gone, including their star Roberto Nelson (20.7 ppg) this team is going to struggle. Their leading returning scorer is sophomore Langston-Morris Walker, who averaged a mere 4.0 ppg. Rice went a miserable 7-23 last year, but I'm expecting a big turnaround for the Owls under new head coach Mike Rhoades, who was one of Shaka Smart's top assistants at VCU. Rice at least has some experience to fall back on with 3 starters and a lot is expected out of freshman Bishop Mercy, who is a perfect fit for Rhoades system. I believe there's a good chance the Owls win this game outright. Take Rice! |
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11-14-14 | East Tennessee State v. Valparaiso -9 | 76-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Valparaiso - Valparaiso will be out for revenge against East Tennessee State tonight, as the Crusaders lost 62-73 on the road to the Bucs. Valparaiso was in a major rebuilding phase last year, as they had three freshmen starters. One of those was All-Horizon forward Alec Peters, who led all Horizon freshmen in every category expect steals and assists. Peters is one of 4 starters back on a Crusaders team that should take a big step forward in the 4th year under head coach Bryce Drew. As for East Tennessee State, they return three starters, but lost their two big men inside. Having to rely on the outside shot on the road is bad recipe for success. Look for the Crusaders to win here by double-digits easily. Take Valparaiso! |
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11-14-14 | Virginia Military v. Citadel +4 | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Citadel + The Citadel is showing great value here in the opening round of the All Military Classic at Christl Arena in West Point. These two military schools are very familiar with one another, having played early in the season each of the last 3 years. VMI won last year's meeting 82-71 on their home floor, but the Citadel won 84-76 at home in 2012. This time the game will be played on a neutral setting and I like the Bulldogs chances of revenge. VMI lost two of their best players from last year in starting center D.J. Covington (20.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg) and guard Rodney Glasgow (18.9 ppg, 5.8 apg), while the Bulldogs return 4 of their 5 starters. Take the Citadel! |
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11-13-14 | Philadelphia 76ers +13 v. Dallas Mavericks | 70-123 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on 76ers + This is a great spot to jump on the 76ers as a big dog against the Mavericks. Philadelphia is clearly getting no respect after their 0-7 start, but they haven't been at full strength. Starting point guard and reigning Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams, is set to make his season debut and they also will be getting back Nerlens Noel after he missed the last two. These are arguably the 76ers two best players. Carter-Williams is a difference maker for this team and I believe his return is going to install some confidence in the rest of the players. With that said, Dallas is clearly the better team here. However, the Mavericks have lacked focus at times and I just don't see them being all that excited about playing the worst team in the league. Keep in mind that the Mavericks are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Dallas also hasn't been a great defensive team early on, which I believe will allow the 76ers to hang around and get the cover. The Mavericks are giving up 101.6 ppg and allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.9% from the field and 39.9% from long-distance. We also see a nice system in play on the 76ers. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 5 or more straight games that are well rested (4 or less games in 10 days) are 59-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia! |
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11-12-14 | Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks -6 | 97-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Knicks - This is a great spot to back the Knicks at home, who are showing big time value due to their 5-game losing streak. We can expect to see max effort tonight from New York and that should be more than enough to win here by at least 7 points against a bad Orlando squad that is still without one of their top players in Victor Oladipo. The Magic also find themselves in a bad scheduling spot. Orlando played in a high-scoring game last night in Toronto and also played on the road Sunday at Brooklyn. That puts them in a brutal scenario where they are not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but their 3rd road game in 4 days overall. The effort simply won't be there tonight. It's also worth noting that 5 of the Magic's 6 losses this season have come by at least 7-points. I also think we are catching a favorable line here due to the Magic only losing by 4-points on the road against a quality Raptors team last night. However, this is the time you want to fade Orlando. The Magic are just 9-27 (25%) ATS over the last 3 seasons off a loss by 6-points or less. Orlando is also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set between 190 and 194.5 points and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games after their starters combined to play more than 160 minutes the previous day. These trends combine to form a 76% (59-19) system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York! |
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11-11-14 | Orlando Magic +11 v. Toronto Raptors | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Magic + There's no question that the Raptors are playing like one of the top teams in the East to start the season, but I think the line here has been inflated due to their recent blowouts against the Wizards and 76eres. While Toronto has already went on the road and beat the Magic 108-95, that should serve as motivation for Orlando and make it difficult for the Raptors to take this game as seriously as they should. Toronto also has a huge home game on deck against the Bulls Thursday, which is part of the TNT double-header. Knowing that Chicago is considered one of the elite teams in the East, it's going to be difficult for the Raptors to not look ahead to that contest. There's a nice system backing a play on the Magic as well. Underdogs of 10 or more points off back-to-back games that finished OVER the total, who are an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a average defensive team (92-98 ppg) are 41-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando! |
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11-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
5* Western Conference Game of Month on Clippers - The Clippers are showing great value here as a small home favorite. Los Angeles comes into this season expecting to contend for a title and will be out to make a statement against the defending champs. The Spurs have struggled out of the gate and are clearly being overvalued by the books. San Antonio is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. They have especially struggled in their two road games, losing at Phoenix 89-94 and at Houston 81-98. Part of the problem for the Spurs is they are not 100%. They are missing a key piece of their offense in Patty Mills along with starting center Tiago Spiltter. Key reserve, Marco Belinelli is also questionable. It's also worth noting that the offense just isn't clicking right now for San Antonio. They come in ranked in the bottom 3rd in scoring (92.8 ppg), field goal percentage (43.2%), 3-point percentage (32.5%) and turnovers (18.2). While the Spurs are struggling, Los Angeles comes in off their best showing of the season in a 106-102 home win over the Trail Blazers. The Clippers have scored at least 100 points in three straight and have shot no worse than 46.3% from the field during this stretch. With the advantage of playing at home, I look for LA to dictate the tempo and have no problem winning here by at least 3 points. There's a nice system in play favoring the Clippers. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have +/- 3 points/game differential against an opponent that is -3 to -7 points/game differential, after 2 straight games where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-09-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
4* NBA Non-Conference ATS No Brainer on Lakers + This is a great spot to take the Lakers as a home underdog against the Hornets. LA has had a full 4 days off since their last game. Look for the Lakers to give their best effort of the season as they are highly motivated for their first win of the season. The Lakers aren't a playoff team, but their slow start has been a direct result of a brutal schedule that has had them play four of the top teams in the Western Conference in the Rockets, Suns (2x), Clippers and Warriors. Charlotte is not on the same level as any of those teams. The Hornets are 3-3 on the season, but 0-2 on the road. They lost by 9-points at New Orleans and by 3-points at New York. If the Knicks can beat Charlotte at home, so can the Lakers. It's also worth noting that this will be the Hornets 4th game in 6 days, which will make it that much harder for them to match the Lakers intensity in this one. There's a nice system in play. Teams off a home loss against a division rival (Lakers) are 31-8 ATS on Sunday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Lakers! Take Los Angeles! |
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11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | 102-106 | Push | 0 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NBA Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Clippers - It's been a less than impressive start for the Clippers, who come in just 3-2 after their first 5 games. They barely scraped by with wins at home against both the Thunder and Jazz and only won by 7 on the road against the Lakers. In their last game they were embarrassed at Golden State 104-121 in a nationally televised game. I believe that combined with their lackluster start has the Clippers showing incredible value as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Trail Blazers. Portland is a quality team, but are just 3-2 with 4 of their first 5 coming at home. They lost their lone road game 94-103 at Sacramento and I'm expecting them to lose by double-digits in this spot. The home team has won each of the last 6 meetings and all 3 of the Clippers wins at home in this stretch have come by at least 5 points. Adding to this is the fact that LA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. There's a big time system in favor of the Clippers based on how they have started the season. Teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and are averaging 48 or less rebounds/game are a dominant 22-4 ATS since 1996. That's a 85% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles! |
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11-07-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Cavaliers - I believe this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers, who are a surprising 1-3 to start the season. It's been a big wake-up call for a lot of these Cleveland players, who simply thought adding LeBron James was going to make them the best team in the league. I'm expecting these guys to come together and give their best effort of the season tonight against the Nuggets. Denver is the perfect opponent for the Cavaliers to get back on track. The Nuggets come in having lost 3 straight, including a 11-point loss to a depleted Thunder team and back-to-back defeats against the Kings. For Denver to lose at home to Sacramento on Monday and turn around and play them again on Wednesday and get embarrassed by 22-points really says a lot about this team. That's typically a spot where a team fights back and the Nuggets laid down. Two of the biggest problems for Cleveland has been their lack of sharing the basketball offensively and a lack of effort defensively. The Cavaliers had just 6 assists in their loss to Utah. Six! It's amazing that they were as close as they were. It just goes to show how much talent they have. Luckily both of these things can be changed. I look for Kyrie Irving to be more of a facilitator and the defensive intensity to pick up in a nationally televised game on ESPN. Take the Cavaliers! |
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11-06-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | 87-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
3* Mavericks/Trail Blazers TNT Late Night Bailout on Trail Blazers - The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Portland has one of the best homecourt advantages in the league and will be coming into this game extremely confident off that 19-point blowout win at home over the Cavaliers on Tuesday. Portland lost just 10 games all of last season at home, making them a must play here as a mere 2-point favorite. Dallas has got off to an impressive start offensively, as they connected on 52.4% of their attempts through their first 4 games. Sustaining that offense won't be easy on the road, especially against a quality defensive team like Portland. The Trail Blazers are holding opponents to just 40.6% shooting through their first 4 games and come in ranked 6th in defensive efficiency. It's also worth noting that the Mavericks are giving up 102.5 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field on the road. The Trail Blazers have one of the more explosive offenses in the league and should only get better now that Damian Lillard looks to be back to 100% after struggling in his first 3 games battling an abdominal strain. Take Portland! |
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11-05-14 | Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 109-131 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Nuggets + Denver is showing great value here as an underdog against the Kings. The Nuggets are in a huge revenge spot, as this is a rematch of Monday's game in Denver. The Kings won that game 110-105. When two teams face off in back-to-back games, the loser of the first matchup is clearly going to be the more motivated squad in the second meeting. Sitting at 3-1 with wins over the Trail Blazers and Clippers prior to their win against the Nuggets, this is a big letdown spot for Sacramento, especially when you factor in that it's their 3rd game in 4 days. The Kings are just 7-19 ATS over the last 3 seasons in home games off 1 or more consecutive wins and only 10-21 in their last 31 home games against a team with a losing record. Adding to this is that Denver is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss. There's also a key system in play telling us to fade the Kings. Home favorites off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against an opponent off a game where both teams scored 105 or more points are just 25-58 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver! |
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11-04-14 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. New York Knicks | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Wizards + The Knicks come into this game off back-to-back impressive wins. They went on the road and beat Cleveland 95-90 and were able to hold on for a 96-93 win at home against Charlotte. Yet they are just a 1.5-point home favorite. The books have made it pretty clear that they don't trust this team, and neither do I right now. New York lacks depth and talent and are still playing without starting point guard Jose Calderon and key reserve Andrea Bargnani. Washington is hands down the better team and I look for them to have their way with the Knicks, similar to what we saw in New York's opening loss to Chicago, where they trailed by 30 points. It's also worth noting that the Knicks have barely won each of their last two games, while shooting over 50% from the field. That's not a good sign of things to come, as they rely on too many jump shots to continue to hit at that high of a rate. Washington is 30-18 ATS in their last 48 games when listed as an underdog and 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less points. There's a strong system in play suggesting just that. Home teams who have made 50% or more of their attempts in 2 straight games that are shooting 45.5% - 47.5% on the season against an opponent that is allowing opponents to shoot 45.5% - 47.5% are just 57-100 ATS since 1996. That's a 64% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington! |
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11-03-14 | Boston Celtics +9.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
3* Celtics/Mavericks NBA Main Event on Celtics + The Celtics are showing great value here getting 9.5 points against the Mavericks. While Boston lost 90-104 at Houston in their last contest, they had an awful night shooting. The Celtics were just 37.8% from the field and a mere 1-25 (4.0%) from behind the 3-point line. To only lose by 14-points with that kind of shooting is a good sign that this team is capable of keeping it within single digits against the Mavericks. Dallas has allowed each of their first 3 opponents to eclipse the 100-point mark. A big reason the Celtics were able to keep it somewhat close against the Rockets is their defense. Boston held Houston to just 42.1% shooting. Brad Stevens has this team playing hard and we saw what they were capable of in their 121-105 win at home over the Nets in the opener. I think this Celtics team is flying under the radar and is going to be a profitable team to back early on in this spot. Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Boston! |
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11-02-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. New York Knicks -3.5 | 93-96 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Knicks - The Knicks are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Bobcats, who find themselves playing on the road in a 2nd game of back-to-back set. Charlotte has not looked great in their first two games. They were fortunate to get a win at home against the Bucks in the opener and managed just 69 points in a loss last night to the Grizzlies. The Knicks got a huge win at Cleveland last Thursday and are going to come out extremely motivated after getting embarrassed by the Bulls in their home opener. Charlotte is just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 games when playing on no rest, while the Knicks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after an upset win as a road underdog and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after shooting 50% on 3-point shots in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 74% (49-17) system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York! |
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11-01-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz +2 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
4* Suns/Jazz NBA Western Conference Heavy Hitter on Jazz + Utah is showing some nice value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Jazz are going to come out motivated after their 0-2 start, which has seen them lose to a couple of playoff teams from last year in Houston and Dallas.They were especially bad in their last game against Dallas, falling behind by as many as 30 points. When a team has that bad of a showing they almost always bounce back. I definitely like Utah to respond at home and get the win. The Suns on the other hand are in a bit of a letdown spot. Phoenix has a quick turnaround after last night's big home win against the Spurs. The Suns really wanted that game last night versus San Antonio and I can't see them matching that intensity against Utah. The Jazz are 101-71 ATS in their last 172 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take Utah! |
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10-31-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings +6 | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Kings + The Kings are showing great value as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento ended up losing 77-95 to Golden State at home in the opener, but that was a more competitive game than the final score would indicate. The Kings actually had a lead late in the 3rd quarter. They simply committed too many turnovers and couldn't buy a basket. As a team they show just 30.8% from the field. Sacramento hasn't lost back-to-back home openers since 1997. The Trail Blazers enter off a 106-89 home win over the Thunder. It looks like they dominated on paper, but they actually trailed Oklahoma City going into the 4th quarter and the Thunder are as unhealthy as any team in the league. Portland was better on the road last year than previous seasons, but this team is not the same away from home. It's going to be hard for them to win here going away, which is why I really like the value we are getting with the Kings, who wouldn't surprise me if they won outright. Sacramento finished last year 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit home loss. Portland on the the other hand was just 2-6 ATS off a SU win by more than 10 points. There's also a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Trail Blazers. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 18-49 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento! |
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10-30-14 | Detroit Pistons +4.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 91-97 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pistons + I love the value we are getting with Detroit as a 4.5-point dog against the Timberwolves. The Pistons should have covered last night in Denver, but managed just 16 points in the 4th quarter to lose by 10 as a 6.5-point dog. I don't see the offense struggling like that against the Timberwolves, who allowed 105 points to the Grizzlies last night. They let Memphis score at will inside as Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol combined for 57 points on 24 of 33 shooting. Another big thing here is that I think the Pistons are a team that's going to be greatly improved in 2014-15 under Van Gundy, while the Timberwolves simply can't be as good as last year after losing a player of the caliber of Love. There's just not enough weapons offensively right now, especially with Kevin Martin sidelined with an ankle injury. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Pistons to win this one outright. While both teams are playing in the second game of back-to-back set, the Timberwolves really struggled in this spot last year. They were just 3-15 ATS over their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. It's also worth noting that Van Gundy has a history of getting his teams to respond off a double-digit loss. His teams are 60-36 ATS over their last 99 off a double-digit loss. These two trends combine to form a nice 66% (75-39) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit! |
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10-29-14 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz +3.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz + I was wrong on the Lakers being able to keep up with the Rockets last night, but I'm not taking the bait on Houston as a mere -3.5 point road favorite against the Jazz. Utah can be a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially early in the year when the home fans have new hope. The Jazz have a ton of young and talented players who are going to be extremely motivated to start their season against a playoff team from last year. While the Rockets looked impressive on the road last night, they went just 21-20 on the road last year, compared to 33-8 at home. Unlike the Lakers, who had no answer inside for Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones, Utah has a more than capable frontcourt to slow them down in Derrick Favors and Enes Kantor. What this play really comes down to is a big time system that has seen home teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent who is playing their second game of the season go 38-21-3 ATS. That's a 64% system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah! |
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10-28-14 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers +6.5 | 108-90 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA Opening Night No Doubt ATS Rout on Lakers + The Lakers are showing great value as a 6.5-point home dog against the Rockets. This is not the same Los Angeles team that won just 27 games last year. They might not have what it takes to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference, but they should be highly competitive, especially at home. Kobe Bryant has something to prove this year and all this team has heard is how they aren't going to be any good. This should have them coming out of the gate playing with a lot of energy and passion against a top team from last season. I think a lot of people are underestimating the additions the Lakers made in the offseason. Not only do they get back Kobe, but they brought in Jeremy Lin to help at the point, drafted Julius Randle and signed underrated free agent power forward Carlos Boozer. Having Lin help this team understand the Rockets schemes should also help in this one. New head coach Bryan Scott has worked this team hard in the offseason and is making defense a priority, which I think could catch some teams off guard after last year when the Lakers finished 29th in the league in scoring defense (109.2 ppg). Houston on the other hand was unable to improve their roster in the offseason. Most notably they weren't able to bring back Chandler Parsons, who I believe was the one player outside of Harden and Howard that they couldn't afford to lose. Parsons did it all for the Rockets, averaging 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.19 steals, on 47.2% shooting from the field and 37.0% from behind the arc. I look for Los Angeles to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning outright. Take the Lakers! |
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06-15-14 | Miami Heat +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 87-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4* NBA Finals Game 5 Vegas Insider on Heat + *Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly* |
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06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5 | 107-86 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
4* Spurs/Heat Game 4 NBA Finals No Brainer on Miami - The Heat didn't decide to show up to Game 3 on the defensive side of the ball until it was too late. Miami allowed San Antonio to score 41 in the 1st quarter and 71 in the first half. They would end up holding the Spurs to just 40 points in the 2nd half, but just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish off the comeback. That performance is not going to sit well with James and company and I look for Miami to come out and play like this is Game 7. Defensively I look for the Heat to play their best game of the series and offensively I believe this will be the game where Mario Chalmers wakes up and finally contributes meaningful minutes. Not to mention, James is going to be playing like a man possessed on both ends of the floor. Even with their win in Game 3, San Antonio is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. That was the first home game the Heat have lost in the playoffs and Miami has done an amazing job of responding in this situation. Miami is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-1 (88%) ATS in their last 8 following a double-digit loss at home.Take the Heat! |
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06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -4.5 | 111-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
4* NBA Finals Game 3 Vegas Insider on Heat - The Heat took control of the series with a win in Game 2 and will be extremely motivated to maintain that edge with a win at home tonight. Had LeBron James not had to sit out the majority of the 4th quarter with cramps in Game 1, Miami could very well have a 2-0 advantage in this series. Just as I expected, James came out and delivered a huge performance in Game 2. The Spurs have really struggled to keep James in check and defensively the Heat are giving San Antonio all kinds of trouble. In Game 1 Miami forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers and in Game 2 they limited the Spurs to just 44% shooting. I look for the Heat to be even stronger defensively in front of their home crowd and at the same time the role players for Miami should play better at home. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Heat won this one rather convincingly. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and just 2-7 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 80% (20-5) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Heat + The Heat were in prime position to win and cover in Game 1 before James had to exit due to cramping. The goods is that injury should be long gone by the time these two teams tip-off tonight. I look for James to come out and make a statement and for the Heat to even up the series at 1-1. Miami ended up allowing the Spurs to score 110 points, but their defense really fell apart without James on the floor. One of the key things to notice is that the Heat forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers, which ended up in a lot of easy baskets in transition. I expect more of the same in Game, as Miami is going to do everything they can to even up the series at 1-1. Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points and 23-9 in their last 34 games after a loss by 10+ points. That's a 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on. If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199. The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER! |
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05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206.5 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over. San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season. The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5! |
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05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points. Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76. Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami! |
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05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Spurs - As bad as the Spurs have looked in the last two games at Oklahoma City, I look for them to respond with a big time performance at home in Game 5. San Antonio is going to treat this as if it were a Game 7, as they don't want to go to Oklahoma City for Game 6 down 3-2. The Spurs offense played about as poorly as they could in Games 3 and 4, shooting under 40% in both contests. I'm confident they aren't going to shoot better at home. Another key thing to factor in is that Oklahoma City invested a lot of energy to win the last two games and there's a good chance they won't be able to match the Spurs intensity tonight. San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games and 25-11-1 in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. There's also a strong system in play. Explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 154-84 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of San Antonio. Take the Spurs! |
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05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +2.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
3* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers + Indiana's chances of winning the series doesn't look good, but I don't expect the Pacers to let their season come to an end at home. I fully expect Indiana to come out and play like they did in their 107-96 home win in Game 1. While the Pacers will be laying everything on the line to stay alive, Miami could find it difficult to match their intensity from the previous three games with a comfortable lead. The Heat could also be without two key role players, as both Ray Allen and Chris Anderson are both listed as questionable for Game 5. The Pacers are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 games off a road loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and 4-1 in their last 5 after a SU defeat by more than 10 points. There's a strong system in play, home teams where the line is +3 to -3, who are playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent - against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers! |
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05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder - The Thunder got new life in the series with a 106-97 win at home in Game 3 and a big reason for that was return of Serge Ibaka. Not only did Ibaka's return provide an emotional lift for the rest of the team, he had a huge impact on the game with 15 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks. The Spurs no longer got easy looks in the paint and as a result their offense was completely out of whack. San Antonio shot just 39.6% from the field. With Ibaka feeling fine and expected to play in Game 4, I think the Thunder are showing unbelievable value as a small home favorite. Keep in mind that Oklahoma City won all four regular season matchups with Ibaka on the floor. San Antonio is just 2-7 in their last 9 games after a contest where they failed to cover the spread and are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games in the playoffs. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 15-3 in their last 18 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 32-18 in their last 50 home games with a total set between 200 and 209.5 points. That's a 64% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Pacers + The Pacers got out to a 15-point lead early in Game 3, but weren't able to finish the job, as Miami rallied and ended up winning by a final of 99-87. Indiana is more than capable of winning on the road and evening up the series at 2-2 and I expect a much more complete effort in a crucial Game 4. Regardless if the Pacers win this game, they should have no problem keeping it within 6-points to cover the spread. If it wasn't for Ray Allen's 4 3-pointers in the 4th quarter of Game 3, Indiana would have easily covered the number. I really like the balance that the Pacers have displayed offensively. Four different players scored in double-figures and four more had at least 6-points. Miami relies heavily on James and Wade, who combined for 49 points. No other Heat starter reached double figures. I look for the Indiana defense to turn it up a notch and really make things difficult on the Heat in Game 4. Indiana is 31-17 ATS in their last 48 games off a road loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss of more than 10 points. That's a 69% (42-19) system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana! |
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05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder - It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder. The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most. Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs. The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | 87-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Pacers + I believe the books have overvalued the Heat big time at home in Game 3. Indiana poses a very difficult matchup for Miami and have to feel like they should be up 2-0. I just don't see enough separation between these two teams to expect the Heat to win here by 8+ points. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if Indiana won this game straight up. Either way, I like them to cover the spread. The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games revenging a loss at home, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread last time out. Miami on the other hand is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after playing a game as a road favorite and just 6-18 in their last 24 home games after playing two straight on the road. That's a 77% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers! |
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05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | 77-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs ATS Annihilator on Thunder + The Thunder ended up losing Game 1 by 17-points, which wasn't a huge surprise given it was their first game without Ibaka. I look for Oklahoma City to make the proper adjustments for Game 2. I don't know that it will be enough for the win, but I like the value here getting 6-points. Keep in mind that the Thunder trailed the Spurs by just 7-points going into the 4th quarter. Durant and Westbrook both played well in Game 1, combining for 53 points on 19 of 40 shooting. I look for an even bigger performance out of these two in what most would consider a must-win for OKC. I also expect a stronger defensive performance in Game 2. The Spurs did as they pleased in Game 1, shooting 57.5% from the floor (50 of 87) and 52.9% from behind the 3-point line (9-17). As good as San Antonio is offensively, it's going to be extremely difficult to match that level of efficiency in consecutive games. Oklahoma City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to cover the spread, 4-1 in their last 5 conference finals games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Spurs on the other hand are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their last game. That's a 82% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City! |
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05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason. With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points. Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana. The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER! |
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05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs - The Spurs may have lost all 4 meetings against Oklahoma City during the regular season, but that doesn't mean anything come the playoffs. Just look at what Miami did to Brooklyn after the Nets swept the season series. On top of that, the Thunder will be without Serge Ibaka, who is not only one of their best defensive players, but someone they really rely on offensively. There was already concern that Oklahoma City relied too much on Durant and Westbrook to win it all and now it's a major issue without Ibaka. In the 4 matchups against the Spurs during the regular season, Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4 blocks and 1.3 steals. Not having him on the floor is going to make it that much easier on San Antonio defensively, as they can now focus all their attention on stopping the duo of Durant and Westbrook. At the same time, Ibaka's absence should open up things for the Spurs offense, as they should be able to get into the paint and score a lot more than they would have with him playing. San Antonio is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning road record, 14-5 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 119-72 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio. |
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05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
4* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Indiana + The Pacers had their struggles getting to this point, but none of that matters. All the chemistry concerns can be thrown out the window, Indiana hates the Heat and I look for them to do whatever it takes to win this series. I don't know if they will, but I definitely like them getting points at home in Game 1. The Pacers are 38-10 on their home floor and when they have needed a win at home they have delivered. The home team has dominated this series when it comes to the spread. The visitor is just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the Heat are just 2-5 in their last 7 trips to Indiana. Another strong trend in play is that the Pacers are 31-19 ATS in their last 50 home games against 3-point shooting teams (36% or better) over the last 2 seasons. Take Indiana! |
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05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder + The Thunder stole back the momentum with a furious rally at home to win Game 5 and I look for them to carry that over and finish off the Clippers with a win tonight. Despite getting a split in the two previous games at Los Angeles in the series, Oklahoma City played extremely well and arguably should have won both games. The best part about this is we don't need the Thunder to win to profit. 5-points is a lot for two evenly matched teams, especially with their being a great chance Oklahoma City will win outright. The Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their home games, 3-1-1 ATS following a game where they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record, 2-6 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS after a came where they covered the spread. Add it up and that's a 79% (27-7) system in favor of Oklahoma City! |
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05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs - The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest. San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3. The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs! |
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05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 -5.5 | 104-105 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder - My money is on the Thunder to hold serve and cover the 5.5-point spread at home. If it wasn't for a meltdown in the 4th quarter of Game 4, Oklahoma City would have a commanding 3-1 lead. While I liked the Clippers coming into this series, the Thunder have clearly looked like the better team. Los Angeles had to use ever last ounce of energy they had to rally in Game 4 and I look for them to suffer a major letdown on the road tonight. Oklahoma City's defense has really made it difficult on the Clippers, they have held them to 45% or worse from the field since allowing them to shoot 55% in Game 1. The Thunder are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100+ points and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games off a loss by 3-points or less. We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are just 53-86 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of Oklahoma City! |
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Jimmy Boyd Basketball Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-14 | Nevada v. Long Beach State -12 | 57-68 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
12-03-14 | Toronto Raptors v. Utah Jazz +4 | 123-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
12-03-14 | San Antonio Spurs -9 v. Brooklyn Nets | 93-95 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
12-03-14 | Iowa +8 v. North Carolina | 60-55 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
12-03-14 | Chicago Bulls v. Charlotte Hornets +3.5 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
12-03-14 | William andamp; Mary +8.5 v. Richmond | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
12-02-14 | Portland Trail Blazers -3 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 105-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
12-02-14 | Pittsburgh v. Indiana -3 | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
12-02-14 | Georgia -8.5 v. Chattanooga | 86-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
12-01-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Philadelphia 76ers +13.5 | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
11-30-14 | Orlando Magic v. Phoenix Suns -10 | 93-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
11-30-14 | Richmond v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | 50-55 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
11-29-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Philadelphia 76ers +12.5 | 110-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
11-29-14 | Charleston v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 57-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
11-28-14 | Ole Miss v. Creighton -3.5 | 75-68 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
11-28-14 | New Orleans Pelicans v. Atlanta Hawks -2.5 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
11-26-14 | San Diego State v. Arizona -5 | 59-61 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
11-26-14 | Florida v. Georgetown -1.5 | 65-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
11-26-14 | Utah Jazz v. Oklahoma City Thunder -4 | 82-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
11-26-14 | Georgia State -7.5 v. Oakland | Top | 83-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
11-25-14 | Miami (OH) +8.5 v. Northwestern | 46-55 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
11-25-14 | Maryland v. Iowa State -4.5 | 72-63 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
11-25-14 | Akron v. Penn State -6 | Top | 72-78 | Push | 0 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
11-24-14 | Seton Hall -3 v. Illinois State | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
11-24-14 | Alabama v. Iowa State -6 | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
11-24-14 | Phoenix Suns +5 v. Toronto Raptors | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
11-24-14 | Santa Clara v. Michigan State -16 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
11-23-14 | Denver Nuggets -2 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
11-23-14 | Florida Atlantic v. Georgia -14 | 61-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | Philadelphia 76ers v. New York Knicks -11.5 | 83-91 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | Colorado -1.5 v. Wyoming | 33-56 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
11-22-14 | North Carolina v. Davidson +13.5 | 90-72 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
11-21-14 | Iona v. Wake Forest -3.5 | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
11-21-14 | Milwaukee Bucks +9 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 83-124 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
11-21-14 | Iowa -3 v. Syracuse | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
11-21-14 | Seton Hall -7 v. Nevada | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
11-21-14 | Clemson v. Gardner-Webb +6.5 | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | Syracuse -5 v. California | 59-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | Fordham v. Maryland -16 | 50-66 | Push | 0 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | Texas -4 v. Iowa | 71-57 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | Detroit v. Michigan -18 | 62-71 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | Penn State -3.5 v. Charlotte | 97-106 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
11-20-14 | Charleston +14.5 v. Connecticut | 57-65 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
11-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Denver Nuggets -7.5 | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
11-19-14 | Wake Forest v. Arkansas -13.5 | 53-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
11-19-14 | UC-Irvine v. Arizona -15.5 | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
11-19-14 | Wisconsin Green Bay v. Wisconsin -15 | Top | 60-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
11-19-14 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Creighton | 63-65 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
11-19-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 v. Orlando Magic | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
11-19-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Cleveland Cavaliers -2 | 92-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
11-19-14 | Evansville -5 v. Miami (OH) | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
11-18-14 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. BYU -16.5 | 62-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
11-18-14 | New York Knicks v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 189.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
11-17-14 | CS Sacramento +2.5 v. UC Riverside | 70-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
11-17-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Charlotte Hornets +4 | 107-80 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
11-16-14 | Houston Rockets -4.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | 69-65 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
11-16-14 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -30.5 | 52-71 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
11-15-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
11-15-14 | Bowling Green +3.5 v. Drake | 77-58 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
11-14-14 | San Antonio Spurs -7.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
11-14-14 | Rice +7.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 54-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
11-14-14 | East Tennessee State v. Valparaiso -9 | 76-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
11-14-14 | Virginia Military v. Citadel +4 | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
11-13-14 | Philadelphia 76ers +13 v. Dallas Mavericks | 70-123 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
11-12-14 | Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks -6 | 97-95 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
11-11-14 | Orlando Magic +11 v. Toronto Raptors | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
11-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
11-09-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | 102-106 | Push | 0 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
11-07-14 | Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
11-06-14 | Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers -2 | 87-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
11-05-14 | Denver Nuggets +3.5 v. Sacramento Kings | 109-131 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
11-04-14 | Washington Wizards +1.5 v. New York Knicks | 98-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
11-03-14 | Boston Celtics +9.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
11-02-14 | Charlotte Bobcats v. New York Knicks -3.5 | 93-96 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
11-01-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Utah Jazz +2 | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
10-31-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings +6 | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
10-30-14 | Detroit Pistons +4.5 v. Minnesota Timberwolves | 91-97 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
10-29-14 | Houston Rockets v. Utah Jazz +3.5 | 104-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
10-28-14 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers +6.5 | 108-90 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
06-15-14 | Miami Heat +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | 87-104 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
06-12-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -5 | 107-86 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
06-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Miami Heat -4.5 | 111-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
06-08-14 | Miami Heat +4.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
06-05-14 | Miami Heat v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 199 | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
05-31-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 206.5 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
05-30-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7.5 | Top | 92-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
05-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5 | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
05-28-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +2.5 | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
05-27-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 | 92-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
05-25-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Oklahoma City Thunder -2 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers +7 v. Miami Heat | 87-99 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
05-21-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +6 v. San Antonio Spurs | 77-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
05-20-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 185 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
05-19-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5 | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
05-18-14 | Miami Heat v. Indiana Pacers +3.5 | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder +5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | 104-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
05-14-14 | PORTLAND GM5 v. SAN ANTONIO GM5 -7.5 | Top | 82-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 28 m | Show |
05-13-14 | LA CLIPPERS GM5 v. OKLAHOMA CITY GM5 -5.5 | 104-105 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 9 m | Show |