Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Clippers/Jazz ATS NO-BRAINER on Jazz -2½ -105 This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah at home. The Jazz haven't really played great to start the year and yet are 3-1. I get the Clippers have looked great to start the year, but I think they are overvalued because of it. Last time they were on the road they lost by 8 at Phoenix and there's not many places tougher to play than Utah. Jazz are 21-10 ATS last 31 off a non-cover and have covered 3 straight at home against the Clippers. I believe Utah's defense will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Jazz are allowing just 91.5 ppg and just 88.0 ppg at home. LA is giving up 112.5 ppg and 126.0 ppg on the road. Take Utah! |
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10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 215 | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Jazz over 215 -109 I'm not expecting this thing to get into the 230's or anything, but I see a ton of value with the total at this price. Utah is averaging 106.5 ppg at home and will be facing a Clippers defense that is giving up 126.0 ppg on the road. While Utah has an elite defense that is allowing just 91.5 ppg, it's hard to see them holding this Clippers team under 100, as LA is averaging 121.5 ppg. Not to mention the books are begging for UNDER money with this total, as the public will be much more inclined to take the UNDER seeing that the Jazz haven't played a game all season where the two teams combined for more than 200 points. Take the OVER! |
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10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6.5 | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on 76ers -6½ -110 I got no problem laying this number at home with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off a couple of uninspiring wins over the Pistons and Hawks, but both of those were on the road. 76ers are not the same team on the road as they are at home. They were 31-10 at home last year compared to 20-21 on the road. Philadelphia doesn't just win SU at home. They are 56-37 (60%) ATS at home the last 3 seasons. They are also a dominant 24-8 ATS last 32 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Timberwolves are 3-0 to start the season, but two of those wins are against Eastern Conference bottom feeders in Brooklyn and Charlotte. The other is a win at home against the Heat (without Jimmy Butler), where they trailed by 7 going into the 4th quarter. Minnesota just 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and have failed to cover 5 straight against the 76ers. Give me Philadelphia! |
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10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat -8 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA - Hawks/Heat Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Heat -8 -105 This line is begging you to take the Hawks and the public is taking the bait. I just don't think we are going to get the kind of effort needed from Atlanta to keep this close. Hawks are off a gut-wrenching 105-103 loss at home to the 76ers last night. A game the Hawks led by 9 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th quarter. Another factor here is the schedule makes this one a little less enticing for the Hawks, as they will turn around and host Miami on Thursday. As for the Heat, they are off to an impressive 2-1 start that includes a 5-point win at Milwaukee. They did that without their prized new addition of Jimmy Butler, who will make his debut tonight. Heat's only home game was the season opener and they won by 19 over Memphis. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 105 or more in 2 straight are 95-51 (65%) ATS since 1996 when facing an opponent off a loss by 3 or fewer points. Take Miami! |
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10-28-19 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 235 | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Warriors/Pelicans over 235 -109 Don't be afraid of the big number here. These two should easily eclipse this total. Each of the Pelicans first 3 games have seen a combined score of 139 or more. Both teams also love to push the pace. New Orleans is currently No. 6 and the Warriors are No. 9. Both are also struggling defensively. Golden State ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and the Pelicans come in at 25th. OVER is 21-8 in the Pelicans last 29 after 2 straight losses and the average score in this spot has been 138.1. Take the OVER! |
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10-28-19 | Thunder +10.5 v. Rockets | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder +10½ -109 OKC is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog at Houston. Thunder avoided an 0-3 start with an emphatic 120-92 win at home over the Warriors, where they had a 42-point lead one point in the game. OKC also covered in a 5-point loss as a 9-point dog at Utah. No question they are going to be up for this one. Houston has failed to cover each of their first two as they are simply being overvalued by the books to start the year. They were lucky to leave with a 126-123 win at home against the Pelicans on Saturday, a game they were favored by 12. Look for the Thunder to keep this much closer than the books anticipate. Take Oklahoma City! |
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10-28-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Magic +4½ -105 Most are going to be tempted to take the Raptors here laying what looks like a short number at home against the Magic, who have failed to cover each of their first two games. I like Orlando quite a bit at this price. What people are going to overlook with Toronto is them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, all 3 at different venues. This is only the second game in the last 5 days for Orlando. Magic simply haven't shot the ball well in their first two games and are due for a few more shots to fall. Hard to see Toronto's defense being at it's best playing 3 in 4. Road dogs who had a losing record the previous year and off a road loss are 37-12 ATS (76%) ATS last 5 seasons. Take Orlando! |
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10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs -2 -109 The Mavs are definitely worth a look here as a slim home favorite against the Blazers. I think Dallas is even better than anticipated and the Mavs have started out 2-0. Portland on the other hand is a team that came into this season way overvalued after last year's trip to the Western Conference Finals. Portland won last time out at Sacramento, but that's not saying much given how bad the Kings have looked to start the season. I just don't think this will be a very profitable team on the road, especially early on, as it will take some time for the books to adjust to how much worse off this year's team is. Mavs are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Blazers are a mere 2-8 ATS last 10 times they have played the Mavs on the road. Take Dallas! |
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10-26-19 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 228 | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Late Night Total KNOCKOUT on Clippers/Suns under 228 -110 I think these two teams will fly past the total Saturday night. The rest of the league has to be a bit worried with what they are seeing from the Clippers, as they look every bit as good as we thought they we would Khawi and they are going to be adding Paul George to the mix here shortly. Clippers have featured the most efficient offense in the league at 123.6 points per 100 possessions. The next best is the hawks at 116.7. The defense was great the first two games, but one was against a Lakers team that is the slowest pace team in the league and the other against a Warriors team that looks to be in big trouble with their lack of scoring options. I don't think the Clippers will bring that same intensity on defense against the Suns on the road and I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams score into the 120's. Take the OVER! |
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10-26-19 | Pelicans +11 v. Rockets | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA - Southwest Division PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pelicans +11 -110 I absolutely love the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Rockets. I think with the Pelicans off a hard fought loss last night, most will be looking to fade them in the second of a back-to-back against a Houston team looking to rebound from a loss to the Bucks in their season opener. I just think there's enough talent with New Orleans, even without Zion, to keep this within single digits. Big thing here on no rest is the Pelicans are a very deep team. They had 10 guys play at least 14 minutes last night with no one playing more than 33. Houston has a lot of star-power, especially with the 1-2 punch of Westbrook and Harden. It has a chance to be special, but it's going to take some time for the chemistry to form. Thus making the Rockets a team to fade early on, especially when they are big favorites like this. Take New Orleans! |
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10-25-19 | Blazers v. Kings OVER 225 | Top | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
5* NBA - Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers/Kings over 225 -110 I look for the Blazers and Kings to fly past the total tonight. Sacramento let the Suns of all teams shoot 50% from the field in their season opener. That says a lot about this team and the effort they will be giving on the defensive side of the ball. The offense did manage just 95 points on 39% shooting, but I would expect a much better showing from the offense at home. Blazers also due for a much better shooting night after connecting on just 41% against a really good Denver team. OVER is 18-7-1 last 26 Blazers games after they failed to cover the spread and 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs a team with losing record at or below 40%. Take the OVER! |
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10-25-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +3½ -110 Book are begging you to take the Celtics at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors and the public is taking the bait. It was not an impressive start for Boston in their opening loss to the 76ers. Celtics shot a miserable 36.7% from the field. Toronto is a team that I think people are sleeping on, which is rare thing for the defending champs to not get any love, but that will happen when you lose your best player. No question this isn't as good a team without Leonard, but it's still one of the better rosters in the east. People still don't realize how good Siakam is. Celtics just 5-16 ATS over the last 2 seasons off a road loss and just 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home. Take Toronto! |
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10-23-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 218 | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
5* NBA - Late Night TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Blazers under 218 -109 You will hear a lot about the offensive playmakers on both sides of the ball in this game, but I think we are going to see the two defenses shine. This season opener means a little more, especially to the Nuggets, as the Blazers knocked them out of the playoffs last year. I also think Portland is still a team playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they just continue to not get the respect they feel they deserve. This team just went to the Western Conference Finals and yet no one is picking them as a title contender. I expect as close to a playoff-like atmosphere as you can expect this early in the season. I also think we are getting a few points of value here with the books inflating the total in a nationally televised game. Take the UNDER! |
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10-23-19 | Cavs v. Magic -8 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Magic -8 -109 I got no problem laying the big number here with Orlando at home against the Cavs. Cleveland added another talented point guard in Garland, but already got a young stud point guard in Sexton. I'm not convinced these two will be a good fit together. Also, there's just not a ton of talent on this roster. Magic basically brought everyone back from a team that improved by 17 wins last year. I think this is a sneaky good team and that continuity should be a big advantage early in the season. I see the Magic jumping all over the Cavs early and coasting to a double-digit win. Take Orlando! |
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10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
5* NBA - Opening Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Lakers/Clippers under 226½ -110 I think the books have completely missed the mark with the total in tonight's highly anticipated season opener between the Clippers and Lakers. I think we are seeing a high number because the Lakers brought in AD and the Clippers added Kawhi and George. However, George is not ready to play and Lakers will be without Kuzma. You got two of the very best defensive players on the same team in Leonard and Patrick Peverley. Lakers got LeBron and AD and a bunch of guys that can play defense in Rondo, Howard, Bradley Green, etc. I'm expecting playoff like intensity from both teams in this game and a bit of a slower pace. Total should be closer to 215 than 225. Take the UNDER! |
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06-13-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Game 6 NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors +3½ -109 I cashed in on the Warriors as a dog in Game 5 at Toronto. A big reason for that is, I just just didn't think the Raptors would be able to match the fight of Golden State and the return of Durant. Warriors had their way early with Durant in the lineup, but the offensive woes returned after he left. After putting up 62 points in the first half, Golden State managed just 44 in the second half. Warriors made a ridiculous 20 3-pointers in Game 5 and yet they still needed a ridiculous comeback in the final couple minutes to squeak out a 106-105 win. That's a massive concern, as it's unlikely Golden State shoots that well again. The Raptors already won twice at Oracle in the series and their intensity will be up a notch in this one. I don't see this thing extending to a Game 7. Take Toronto! |
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06-10-19 | Warriors +4 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 61 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH on Warriors +4 -115 As difficult as it may be to back Golden State after just watching them lose two straight at home, I don't the series ends tonight. With or without Durant. However, I do think we are finally going to see Durant and just having him on the floor changes the game. If he plays, it's going to be a heck of lot harder on the Raptors defense, as they can't just focus all their attention to Curry and Thompson. The biggest thing I like here is that we got a defending champ with their backs against the wall. Golden State definitely has more to offer. This is also a sticky spot for the team up 3-1. It's not easy to match the intensity of the team facing elimination when you know in the back of your mind that a loss isn't the end of the world. Take Golden State! |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -5 -105 While I definitely would prefer Klay Thompson play, I want to point out that I love Golden State to win and cover in Game 4 regardless if he's on the floor. As of right now he's listed as probable, while Durant is listed as out, so you have to assume he's playing. Either way the effort simply wasn't there on the defensive end of the floor in Game 3 and there's no doubt that's been the focal point in the lockerroom leading up to this game. Golden State might be the defending champs, but they know they are all but done for if they lose this game. I think a better effort defensively and Toronto not shooting it as well from deep as they did in Game 3 will get the job done. The Warriors have the fire-power with Curry to score enough to not just win but win going away. Take Golden State! |
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06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Game 3 NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -5½ -109 Even if Durant and Thompson don't play for Golden State, I'm all over the Warriors to win and cover at home in Game 3. Toronto had their chance to go up 2-0 but couldn't get it done and it's always the toughest bouncing back from a loss in a game that you felt like you should have won. Either way, I just don't see Golden State losing in this spot. The Warriors needed to win Game 2 and did just that. I think Game 3 is even that much more important. This is where the home-court shift will lead to a more lopsided outcome for the Warriors, as they should get a lot more out of their role players. Take Golden State! |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Finals - Postseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Raptors -1½ -109 I love the Raptors as a small home favorite in Game 2. We cashed in an easy winner on Toronto in Game 1 and with Kevin Durant not suiting up for Golden State in Game 2, I see no reason why we should expect anything different. Toronto's home court edge is underrated and like I said in the write-up for Game 1, I just think this is a really tough matchup for the Warriors without Durant. They got 55 points from Curry and Thompson in Game 1 and it wasn't nearly enough. Toronto also won going away with a pretty average game from Kawhi. Raptors depth is also huge in this series, especially with Iguodala likely playing at less than 100%. Take Toronto! |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors +1 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
5* NBA - Warriors/Raptors Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +1 -115 I really like Toronto to take Game 1 of the NBA Finals at home against the defending champs. Without Durant I think the Raptors matchup extremely well with Golden State. Marc Gasol has the ability to hang with Draymond, while Leonard and Lowry can slow down Curry and Thompson. I know Klay is a great defender, but I just feel like Kawhi is on a different level and without Durant the Warriors really don't have a great answer for him. Add in the home court edge in Toronto and the depth edge that the Raptors have and I think they should be a bigger favorite here. Let's also not forget that Toronto won both of the regular-season meetings with the Warriors, including a 20-point win as a 8-point dog at Golden State. Raptors are 21-8 ATS last 29 at home after winning 4 of their last 5 and 34-16-2 in their last 52 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Toronto! |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Raptors NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE MONTH on Raptors -2 -110 My money is on the Raptors to make it 4 straight wins to close out the series with Milwaukee and move on to the NBA Finals. As good as Antetokounmpo is, you could argue that Toronto's Kawhi Leonard has been the best player on the floor in this series, especially of late. More than anything, I think Leonard's got the much better supporting cast. Bucks just aren't getting production from their bench and a lot of that has to do with the great defense of Toronto. I just think with all the momentum the Raptors have, playing at home will be more than enough to propel them to victory in this one. Take Toronto! |
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05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks under 217½ -110 While each of the last 3 games in the series have gone OVER the total, I absolutely love the UNDER in Game 5 on Thursday. With the series tied 2-2, this feels like a must-win for both team, so we can expect a max effort here from both sides. With both teams giving all they got on the defensive side of the ball, I think we are poised to get our lowest scoring game of the series. Keep in mind that neither team even got to 100 points in regulation of Game 3 and there were just 208 scored in Game 1. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the Raptors last 10 on the road and 13 of the Bucks last 19 off a loss. Take the UNDER! |
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05-19-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
3* Bucks/Raptors Game 3 VEGAS INSIDER on Bucks +2½ -110 I just don't think playing at home is going to be enough for Toronto in Game 3. Raptors had their chance to steal Game 1 in Milwaukee with the Bucks off that long layoff, but blew a big lead in a crushing defeat. They followed that up by getting annihilated 125-103 in Game 2. Milwaukee's defense has simply been too much for the Raptors to overcome, as Toronto continues to struggle from the field. Raptors have shot 43% or worst from the field in 4 straight, dating back to the 76ers series. Keep in mind Bucks are a perfect 4-0 on the road in the postseason with 3 of the 4 wins coming by double-digits. Take Milwaukee! |
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05-16-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf Finals GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers +8 -110 Really like the value here with Portland as a near double-digit dog in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. I wasn't surprised to see the Blazers struggle in Game 1. In fact, I had a strong play on Golden State in that one. I just thought it was asking a lot for Portland to play well in that spot. It's hard enough playing on the road in the postseason at Golden State. It's that much harder when coming off a Game 7, especially when that Game 7 was played in altitude. While it's only been one day between games, I think we see a very different Blazers team tonight. The other huge key here is that Durant is not expected to play. I get that Curry and Thompson were great in Game 1, but it will be tough for the two to combine for another 62 points and 12 made 3-pointers. Not saying the Blazers will win, but I expect this to be a dog fight the whole way. Take Portland! |
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05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
5* Bucks/Raptors Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors +6½ -110 I really like the value here with Toronto as a pretty decent road dog in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Bucks. I know the Raptors just played Game 7 against the 76ers on Sunday, but two days is more than enough to recover. I actually think the Bucks are the team that is going to be most affected by rest. Milwaukee only needed 5 games to put away the Celtics in the second round and thus haven't played in a week. I think no game action for that long really makes it tough on a team to come out sharp. I look for the Raptors to take control early and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went on to win the game. Take Toronto! |
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05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on Warriors -7 -110 Analysis will be posted shortly |
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05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 207.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 60 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on 76ers/Raptors over 207½ -109 I know that the defensive effort will be there for both teams in Game 7, but I just can't pass up on the value here with the OVER at this price. While both teams have flashed great defense in the postseason, especially the Raptors, I just think there's too much offensive fire-power on the floor for these two to not reach at least 210 points. Each of the last 2 games have went OVER the total and both of those were blowouts. I think this one is going to be a lot closer and even more high-scoring than the last two. OVER is 17-6 in the 76ers last 23 road games with a total set between 200 and 209.5. Over is also 34-19 in the Raptors last 53 when revenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. Take the OVER! |
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05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -6 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs - Warriors/Rockets Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets -6 -110 I'll back Houston in a must-win at home against the Warriors in Game 6. With Golden State up 3-2 in the series, it's win or season over for the Rockets. In a change of events from last year, the Warriors will be the ones trying to close out a series without one of their best players. Last year the Rockets had a 3-2 series lead before losing Chris Paul to an injury. Warriors won Game 6 at home 115-86 and followed that up with a win at Houston in Game 7. Rockets will look to take a similar path, as Golden State will be without Kevin Durant. I get the Warriors still have Curry, Thompson and Green, but Houston now without a doubt has the best player on the floor in Harden and in my opinion are the better defensive team. I think the Rockets roll here. Take Houston! |
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05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
5* BEST BET on 76ers +2 -110 Analysis will be posted shortly |
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05-06-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 108-112 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* Warriors/Rockets Game 4 VEGAS INSIDER on Warriors + Not a shocker that Houston won Game 3, but it wasn't easy. The Rockets needed overtime and 41 points from James Harden to squeak out a 5-point win. Not to mention another 30 points from Eric Gordon. Warriors also almost won the game with Steph Curry shooting a mere 7 of 23 from the field (2-9 from 3-pt) and finishing with just 17 points. I just think it's going to be hard for Houston to do that in Game 4. Golden State does not want to let this thing go back home tied 2-2. The Warriors are on a mission to 3-peat and I expect them to show up in a big way and get the win here. Take Golden State! |
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05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Wiseguy Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors + A lot of people will be quick to lay the short number with Houston at home in Game 3, as everyone sees this as a must-win for the Rockets, who are down 0-2 in the series. No denying how big a game this is for Houston, but I believe the Warriors will also be out to send a message. Last thing Golden State wants to do is give Houston life and I think they come out extremely motivated to go up 3-0. While the Rockets more than held their own on the road in Games 1 & 2, they continued to struggle from the field. Houston hasn't eclipsed 110 points in 5 straight and have shut under 45% from the field in 4 of their last 5. Warriors are 15-5 ATS last 2 seasons in the 2nd half of the year vs a team with a winning record and have covered 7 of their last 8 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Rockets are also just 2-6 ATS last 8 when playing on 3 days of rest. Take Golden State! |
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05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bucks UNDER No need to overthink this one. Big time value here with the UNDER at this number. While Game 2 went OVER the mark, it do so just barely and was a bit of a fluke given how poorly both teams shot overall. Despite scoring 123 points, the Bucks only shot 43.8% from the field. Boston was even worse at 39.5%. The only reason the game went over is the Bucks made 20 3-pointers and the two combined to go 49 for 58 (84%) from the free throw line. These two only combined for 202 points in Game 1 and I still think we have yet to see a true defensive game between these two. I think the Celtics defense is really going to benefit from playing at home, and Milwaukee is going to be extremely motivated to take back homecourt in the series. I wouldn't be shocked at all if both teams failed to break 100 points. Take the UNDER! |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 215 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors UNDER I just don't know how you don't play the UNDER at this number given what we have seen in the first two games of the series. Game 1 had a total of 223 and it ended up with a combined score of 203. They lowered the total down to 219.5 for Game and it still wasn't close. This time they only managed 183 points. I don't see any reason to expect anything but another low-scoring game. Toronto has yet to allow an opponent to shoot better than 42% from the field in any game this postsesaon. They have held the 76ers under 40% in both games. They have also not allowed more than 96 points in any game since Game 1 of the first round against Orlando. You also have to factor in that Embiid is not 100% and when he's not right the 76ers offense can really struggle to score in the halfcourt. I think Philly understands that for them to win this series they have to play with same defensive intensity that they brought to the table in Game 2. Take the UNDER! |
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05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -3.5 | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
4* Blazers/Nuggets Game 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Nuggets - I just don't feel like the books are giving the Nuggets the respect they deserve on their home floor. Denver won 121-113 in Game 1 at home and did so with Portland shooting 51% from the field and Damian Lillard going off for 39 points. Nuggets are now 38-8 on their home floor this season, where they are winning on average by 10+ ppg. Blazers aren't a great road team and I think they simply played as good as they could in Game 1. Keep in mind Portland went into Game 1 on 5 days of rest, while Denver was playing on just 1-day of rest after their Game 7 win over the Spurs. Nuggets 13-5 ATS last 18 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 18-4 ATS last 22 at home when coming off a game where they covered the spread. Take Denver! |
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04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 112-90 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf Semifinals GAME OF THE YEAR on Bucks - A lot of people are going to be quick to take the points with Boston, especially after watching the Celtics sweep the Pacers in the first round. I just think that's a huge mistake, as I not only think the Bucks cover the big number, but win here in a blowout. Milwaukee is 35-8 at home this season and in their two home games against Detroit in the first round, they won 121-86 in Game 1 and 120-99 in Game 2. A lot of people overlook just how good this Bucks team is defensively. Pistons shot a miserable 38.8% from the field against the Bucks in the first round. Boston won with their defense in their series with the Pacers, but stopping Milwaukee's offense will prove to be a much harder task. Bucks are 44-29 ATS as a favorite this season, which includes a 23-12 ATS mark when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Love the value here with Toronto at home, as this just has the feeling of a series where the home team is going to have a massive edge throughout. While both of these teams started out the first round with a Game 1 loss at home only to win 4 straight, I came away a lot more impressed with Toronto than I was with Philadelphia. The fact that Embiid is sitting out playoff games is a bad bad sign for the 76ers. Hard to believe he's not playing through some pain. He's the guy that really makes Philly so dangerous and I just don't trust them on the road without him at 100%. Two other key things in this matchup that I believe favor the Raptors is their depth and their defense. I think they have a massive edge in both areas of the game. Take Toronto! |
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04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH on Clippers UNDER I love the value here with the UNDER in Game 5 between the Warriors and Clippers. I'm not saying there won't be a lot of offense, I just feel like the number here is way too high with Los Angeles fighting off elimination and the Warriors surely motivated to end this series at home and get ready for their big showdown with Houston in the next round. We saw a much more defensive-minded contest in Game 4, as the two only combined for 218 points with a total at 236. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this thing stayed under 220 again. UNDER is 13-1 in the Clippers last 14 when revenging a home loss and 15-4 in their 19 road games this season against a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Warriors last 13 home games and 17-5 in their last 22 when playing on 1 day of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 212 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Spurs UNDER Each of the last 3 games in the series have gone OVER and it's resulted in the highest total of the series in Game 5. I think it's time to shift gears and bet the UNDER. Not only are we getting a few points of value, but we can count on both teams showing up defensively. With the series tied 2-2, both teams know that the winner of this game almost always ends up winning the series. I expect a very similar type of scoring output to Game 1, where the two teams combined for 197 points. UNDER is 23-12 in the Spurs last 35 when playing on 2 days of rest and 8-3 in their last 11 on the road. UNDER is also 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 off a win and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 at home vs a team that's won less than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! |
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04-23-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 35 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers - After stealing Game 1 on the road, Brooklyn has lost 3 straight and are off both an emotional and physical loss in Game 4 at home, where the refs missed some calls late that could have changed the outcome. I think the Nets are in the state of mind that they got no chance because of how the officiating is going. That's not an ideal mindset going on the road in an elimination game against a team that simply is more talented. We saw the 76ers win convincingly in both Games 2 and 3 to take back control of the series and I expect a similar effort in Game 5 at home with a chance to put the series to rest. Take Philadelphia! |
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04-23-19 | Magic v. Raptors -11.5 | Top | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors - I fully expect the Raptors to make easy work of the Magic and cover the big spread in Game 5 at home. It's been all Toronto since Orlando's upset win on the road in Game 1. Raptors responded from that loss with a resounding 111-82 home win in Game 2 and are coming off a 107-85 victory in Game 4 at Orlando. The Magic know they are done for and the Raptors should be plenty motivated to put an end to this series on their home floor. Factor in the massive talent gap between the two teams and it should all add up to a blowout victory. Toronto is now 9-1 ATS in their last 10 at home in the month of April and a perfect 9-0 ATS at home over the last 2 seasons when coming off a game where they held their opponent to 90 or fewer points. Take Toronto! |
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04-22-19 | Bucks -12 v. Pistons | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bucks - I don't love laying big numbers in the playoffs, but I got no problem backing the Bucks to cover a big spread in Game 4. Milwaukee has a 3-0 series lead and have completely dominated this series. They won 121-86 as a 15-point favorite in Game 1, followed that up with a 120-99 win in Game 2 as a 15.5-point favorite. The series moving to Detroit and the return of Blake Griffin didn't really change things for the Pistons. Milwaukee won Game 3 on the road 119-103, covering as a 9-point favorite. They did so with Griffin playing extremely well in his first game back and Antetokounmpo having a sub-par game, largely due to foul trouble. Not that I think there's anything Detroit can do here to extend the series, it's worth noting there is motivation for the Bucks to close out the series with their next opponent, Boston, having already swept the Pacers. Take Milwaukee! |
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04-21-19 | Blazers +6 v. Thunder | Top | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers A lot of people came into this series expecting the Thunder to advance without much problem. Portland had just recently lost Nurkic to a season-ending injury and McCollum was working his way back to full strength after a long absence. Blazers proved those doubters wrong by going up 2-0. Oklahoma City did manage to win Game 3 at home, but it took a huge game from Westbrook. I don't know that they can't count on that kind of performance again here, as they need him to be special to not only win, but cover this spread. Also, the Thunder shot 52% (15-29) on 3-pointers in Game 3 and still only won by 12. Blazers are 15-4 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss of 10 or more points, which includes a 11-1 ATS mark when that previous loss came on the road. Take Portland! |
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04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | 117-103 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Vegas ATS NO-BRAINER on Spurs - Spurs should have no problem holding serve at home in Game 4 and taking a commanding 3-1 series lead going back to Denver. The Nuggets are lucky San Antonio isn't up 3-0, as they had to erase a 19-point deficit to sneak out a win in Game 2. What really stands out to me is the Spurs let the Nuggets shoot 52% from the field and 52% from behind the 3-point line in Game 3 and still won by 10-points. San Antonio is too good of a defensive team, especially at home, to let the Nuggets shoot that well again on their home turf. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) that are off a win by 10 or more and playing a team with a winning record are 41-14 (75%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take San Antonio! |
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04-19-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors - Easy play here on Toronto at this price. I think a lot of the value here stems from Orlando's upset win of the Raptors in Game 1. I just think that result was more of the Raptors not giving the Magic their full attention, as they are without a doubt the better team and they know it. That loss got Toronto locked back in and they came out and absolutely dominated the Magic in Game 2. Sure the Magic are going to be fired up playing a home playoff game, but it's not going to be enough for them to pull off the upset. Much like we saw last night with Brooklyn, who also won Game 1 and was getting a ton of love going into Game 3. I would be shocked if this is close at all. Take Toronto! |
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04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Western Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Warriors UNDER I think we are getting some big time value here with the UNDER after these two combined for 266. A lot of that had to do with the Warriors taking their foot off the gas after building up a 31-point lead. They let the Clippers score 40+ points in both the 3rd and 4th quarter. Expect more of what we saw in Game 1, when the two combined for just 125. That's an embarrassing loss for the defending champs and I'm confident they come out 100% locked in for Game 3, especially with them feeling the need to step up after the injury to DeMarcus Cousins. Not having Cousins on the floor definitely hurts the Warriors offense, but I also think it helps them defensively. UNDER is 12-2 in the Warriors last 14 when revenging a loss as a home favorite of 10 or more and 13-3 in Clipper home games during the 2nd half of the season, when facing a team that's outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game. Take the UNDER! |
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04-17-19 | Pistons v. Bucks OVER 211 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Pistons OVER The Pistons and Bucks combined for 207 points with Detroit accounting for just 86 in Game 1. Some of Detroit's struggles offensively were a product of Milwaukee's defense, but the Pistons simply didn't shoot well. I think we are going to see a little more out of Detroit's offense in Game 2 and a big reason for that is it will be hard for Milwaukee to bring that same intensity on the defensive side after how lopsided it was in Game 1 (won by 35). Key here is that we are getting value on the total because of what happened in the series opener. OVER is 21-8 in the Bucks last 29 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-3 in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. OVER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 when revenging a loss by 20 or more. Take the OVER! |
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04-16-19 | Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 219 | 94-114 | Win | 100 | 37 h 30 m | Show | |
3* NBA Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Thunder/Blazers UNDER These two combined for just 203 points in Game 1 with a total set at 223. The books have adjusted quite a bit for Game 2, but not nearly enough. These are two teams that don't get the respect they deserve on the defensive side of the ball because of all the fire-power they have on the offensive side. What people also overlook is the lack of legit scorers that both teams have after their top guys. Westbrook (24) and George (26) combined for 50 and Lillard (30) and McCullum (24) combined for 54. Thunder also got 17 from Adams, while the Blazers got 20 from Kanter. Chances are we see a couple of these guys struggle in Game 2 and I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ends up under 200. Take the UNDER! |
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04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder + I was on the wrong end of Game 1 with OKC, but that's not going to keep me from going big on the Thunder in Game 2. Portland got big games from all of their top guys in Lillard (30), McCullom (24) and Kanter (20). While those 3 combined for 74 points, the rest of the team managed just 30. I just don't think Portland has the fire-power to win this series and let's not forget the Thunder swept the regular-season series 4-0. Both Westbrook and George shot the ball poorly in Game 1 (4 for 19 on 3-pointers) and yet Oklahoma City had a chance to win the game. Keep in mind they also started the game down 14 in the 1st quarter. I expect a much stronger start for the Thunder and really expect them to win this one rather comfortably. Take Oklahoma City! |
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04-16-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 82-111 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Magic + This is just too good a price to pass up with Orlando in Game 2. The Magic were as hot as any team over the final few weeks of the regular-season and pulled out a 104-101 win in Game 1 at Toronto as a 9.5-point dog. Kyle Lowry, who is notorious for not showing up in the postseason, didn't score a point in Game 1. History tells us the Raptors will bounce back in Game 2 at home, but I don't think it's going to be easy and this line is calling for a blowout. Toronto is just 17-31 ATS last 48 at home when revenging a loss and most of these non-covers have come because they were getting to much respect on the line, as the Raptors are winning by an average score of 111.6-106.7 in this spot. Magic have now covered 15 of their last 21 vs a team with a winning record. Take Orlando! |
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04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 226 | 123-145 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Nets/76ers UNDER These two teams combined for just 113 in the opener, finishing well below the mark of 228. The books have adjusted a little, but not nearly enough. Brooklyn's a very strong defensive team and their intensity on that side of the ball really gave the 76ers problems. As for Philadelphia, I think they got a big wake-up call in the Game 1 loss. I think they went in thinking it was going to be easy to take down the Nets. They won't make that mistake in Game 2. Expect the 76ers to lay everything on the line, especially on the defensive side, to avoid going down 0-2. I just don't see this one coming close to the mark. Take the UNDER! |
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04-14-19 | Thunder +145 v. Blazers | 99-104 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Thunder + The books have made OKC the favorite to win this series and for good reason. The Thunder won all 4 meetings between these two teams in the regular-season and while both teams had strong regular-seasons, only OKC showed flashes of being good enough to win it all. As much respect as I have for Damian Lillard, he just doesn't have the supporting cast. CJ McCollum is still trying to shake of the rust from an injury that cost him a big portion of the stretch run and it's a really big blow not having the services of Jusuf Nurkic. Lillard is going to have to play out of his mind just to give them a chance and that still might not be enough. Take OKC! |
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04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NBA Playoffs ATS NO-BRAINER on Nuggets - I absolutely love the value here with Denver laying what I feel is a really short number at home. The Nuggets didn't have the greatest finish to the season, but their primary focus was making sure they were fresh for the playoffs, not the No. 1 seed. I just think it has people sleeping on this team going into the postseason. For me this is all about location. Denver was outstanding at home, going 34-7 SU and 25-16 ATS. San Antonio was just 16-25 on the road this season. These two teams just played in Denver on 4/3 and the Nuggets absolutely rolled the Spurs 113-85. Props to Popovich for getting San Antonio into the playoffs, but coaching can only get you so far in the NBA. More times than not it comes down to talent and depth and the Nuggets are much better in both categories. Take Denver! |
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04-10-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -6 | Top | 137-143 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers - I love this spot and price with the Clippers at home against the Jazz. As of right now LAC is the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and would have to take on the Warriors in the first round. However, with a win here and a loss by either the Spurs or Thunder, the Clippers would move up to the No. 7 seed and play the Nuggets. The even bigger key here is that while this games means a lot to Los Angeles, it means next to nothing for the Jazz. Utah is locked into the No. 5 spot and had their big tune-up game for the playoffs last night at home against the Nuggets, which they won 118-108. I would expect the Jazz to rest some guys and any key guys that do play, likely won't be on the floor for long. This has all the makings of a Clippers blowout victory. LAC is 17-8 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 13-5 ATS last 18 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 14-4 ATS last 18 when coming off a road loss. Take Los Angeles! |
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04-09-19 | Rockets -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets - I love the value here with Houston laying a small number on the road against the Thunder. The Rockets were just hoping to play well enough to get past the Blazers for the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference. They can officially lock up the No. 3 spot tonight with a win and in the process might pass the slumping Nuggets for the No. 2 spot, as Denver is a dog at Utah. Thunder have turned it around with 3 straight wins, but overall have not been playing well. They are just 9-13 over their last 22 games. Houston is simply the better team and with how much this game means to the Rockets, I just don't see them losing. OKC is 3-13 ATS last 16 vs a team from the Western Conference, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 0-4 ATS last 4 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Houston! |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -115 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
5* Virginia/Texas Tech NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia - Virginia was the butt of every joke last year after becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. Just one year later they are poised to win it all, as I see the Cavaliers as the much better side in this one. I know both of these teams play a very similar style, the slower pace of play favors Virginia a little more, as I think they are the stronger offensive team. I also love how the Cavaliers keep finding a way to pull out these wins late in games. Cavaliers are also 16-5 ATS last 21 after failing to cover their previous contest and 20-9 in their last 29 off a win. Red Raiders have not had much luck against the best conference in the country, as they are just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team from the ACC. Take Virginia! |
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04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
5* NBA Northwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Blazers - Easy play here on the Blazers as a small home favorite against the Nuggets. Denver is pretty much locked into the No. 2 seed in the west and are expected to give a number of guys the day off on Sunday to make sure they are fresh for the playoffs. Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are all out for this one. While Denver is playing without 3 of their better players, Portland is welcoming back one of theirs, as C.J. McCollum is expected to return from injury. I'm confident the Blazers not only cover this spread, but do so in convincing fashion. Take Portland! |
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04-06-19 | Auburn v. Virginia UNDER 131.5 | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 79 h 20 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Final Four TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Auburn/Virginia UNDER Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Final Four action between Auburn and Virginia. I think the fact that the Cavaliers are coming off a game against Purdue that saw a combined 155 points and Auburn has really scored the ball well in their first 4 tournament games, has the number way too high for this one. Few teams, if any, are better at slowing down the tempo of a game and taking teams out of their comfort zone than Virginia. The Cavaliers also take exceptional care of the basketball and defend the 3-ball exceptionally well. Without easy looks from the outside and few opportunities in transition, Auburn is going to find it difficult to score. Key here is that the Tigers are a solid defensive team and this Virginia offense is far from a juggernaut. We saw the Cavaliers core just 53 against Oregon and 63 against Oklahoma prior to the 80 they put up against Purdue. UNDER is 15-6 in Virginia's last 21 away non-conference games and 20-9 in their last 20 with a total in the 130's. Take the UNDER! |
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04-06-19 | Nets +8.5 v. Bucks | 133-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Nets + I think the books have made a pretty obvious mistake here making the Nets this big of a dog when they are the only team with something to play for. With Milwaukee's win at Philadelphia on Thursday they clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. They have absolutely zero incentive of trying in these last 3 games and will likely cut way back on the minutes of their top guys. Brooklyn on the other hand is in playoff mode. The Nets are tied with Detroit for the 7th/8th spots, but are just 1 ahead of Miami and 2 in front of Charlotte, so the postseason is far from a lock right now. We can expect everything they got in this one. I'll take the points for insurance, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them win this game outright. Take Brooklyn! |
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04-05-19 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 223 | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Hornets OVER The books completely missed the mark here. With Milwaukee's win last night, Toronto is locked into the No. 2 seed in the east. The defensive effort simply isn't going to be there, especially on the road. While the game means something to the Hornets, Charlotte has been playing little to no defense down the stretch. Hornets have allowed each of their last 4 opponents to shot 47% or better from the field and have allowed 50% or better in 3 of their last 6. Raptors might limit some minutes, but they are a deep team. I could see both teams scoring 120. Take the OVER 223! |
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04-05-19 | Hawks v. Magic -8.5 | 113-149 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Magic - I'm confident Orlando will make easy work of the Hawks and win here by double-digits at home. The Magic are in playoff mode right now, as they are fighting for their lives to get one of the final few spots in the Eastern Conference. Orlando is currently tied with the Nets for 7th and just 1/2-game back of Detroit for 6th. They are also just a 1/2-game ahead of 9th place Miami. Hawks have been playing well down the stretch. Atlanta is 8-2 in their last 10, but only 2 of those wins came on the road. They will be without two key players here with Bazemore and Huerter both listed as doubtful. Orlando is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning percentage between 25% to 40%. They have won these games by an average of 16.8 ppg (116.8-100.0). Take Orlando! |
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04-03-19 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies UNDER I just don't see the Blazers and Grizzlies surpassing the mark set by the books. Memphis is only shooting 41% from the field over their last 5 games. They just lost Jonas Valanciunas, are already without Avery Bradley and aren't expected to have the services of Mike Conley. Grizzlies only scored 96 on 38% shooting last time out against the Clippers, which marked the first time since late Jan. that LAC held an opponent under 100 points. Portland is fighting the Rockets for the No. 3 seed in the west and they control their own destiny. They win their final 4 games and they will be the No. 3 seed. I expect a big effort here and chances are this thing turns into a bit of a blowout, which is always a good thing for the UNDER. UNDER is 7-2 in the Grizzlies last 9 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-2 in their last 13 on the road with a total set between 210 and 219.5. Take the UNDER! |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 220 | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
4* NBA Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Nuggets/Warriors UNDER This is a massive game this late in the year, as these two are fighting for the No.1 seed and home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Right now the Warriors have a 1-game lead over the Nuggets, but a Denver win would not only pull them even in the standings it would make it a 2-2 series split between the two teams. I think both teams understand the importance of home court and will basically treat this like a playoff game. Add in the Nuggets scoring problems of late (scored 95 or less in 4 of 5) and this thing should stay well below the number posted here. UNDER is 12-3 in Denver's last 15 road games when revenging a road loss, 10-2 in their last 12 vs the Western Conference and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Warriors last 15 overall, 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team from the west and 7-1 in their last 8 at home. Take the UNDER! |
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04-02-19 | Texas Southern v. Green Bay -5 | Top | 86-87 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Green Bay - Love the value here with the Phoenix, as they should have no problem covering the small number against the Tigers. Wisconsin-GB has gone 14-3 on their home floor this season and are 8-1 ATS in last 9 home lined games. They just beat CS-Bakersfield by 15 as a 6-point favorite last time out and prior to that beat FIU by 30 as a 4-point favorite. Phoenix have gone 9-1 ATS last 10 home games when coming off a game as a home favorite and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, winning by an average of 17.4 ppg. Take Green Bay! |
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04-01-19 | Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 205.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
5* NBA Central Division TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pistons UNDER There's a lot to like here with the UNDER in Monday's division clash between the Pistons and Pacers. The obvious is that being division rivals these two teams are very familiar with one another. They have already faced each other twice this season. Both will be without their best player, as the Pacers continue to go to work without Victor Oladipo, while the Pistons will be without the services of Blake Griffin. Detroit just played a game without Griffin against the Blazers and the two combined for just 189 points. Both of these teams are strong defensively and both still have plenty to play for. Indiana is tied for 4th/5th with Boston and getting home court in that series would be huge for them. As for the Pistons, they are sitting 6th in the east, but just 1.5-games ahead of 9th place Orlando. UNDER is 20-8-1 in the Pistons last 29 road games vs a team that has won more than 60% of their home games, 35-16 in the Pacers last 51 at home and 28-11 in last 39 vs a team with a winning record. Take UNDER! |
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03-31-19 | Auburn +5 v. Kentucky | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
4* Auburn/Kentucky Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER on Auburn + I really like the value here with the Tigers in their showdown with SEC rival Kentucky in the Elite 8. I think we are getting a good price on Auburn because of the loss of Okeke to a torn ACL. While that's a tough blow at this juncture of the season, the Tigers are more than capable of winning without him. The most important thing is Auburn is hot right now. They certainly liked the looks of things at the Sprint Center, as they nailed 17 of 37 (46%) of their 3-pointers against the Tar Heels. A game they absolutely dominated. Kentucky on the other hand is coming off a grueling 62-58 win over Houston, where they were lucky to win. I think Auburn is the fresher team and they won't be the least bit intimidated by this Wildcats team. Take Auburn! |
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03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4.5 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Purdue/Virginia Elite 8 VEGAS INSIDER on Virginia - Easy play here on Virginia for me. The Cavaliers made history last year becoming the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 and are now just 1 win away from making the Final 4. The fact that they are in the Elite 8 and haven't really played great is something I really like, as we are bound to see them put it all together. Boilermakers are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after a game where they allowed 90 or more points, while Virginia is 23-8 ATS last 31 after giving up less than 50. Also, Cavaliers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team from the Big Ten. Take Virginia! |
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03-29-19 | Houston +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 58-62 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
5* Sweet 16 Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Houston + Kentucky might be the better seed, but Houston is the better team and I'll take them as a dog all day against the Wildcats. Cougars absolutely destroyed their first two opponents, taking down No. 14 Georgia State 84-55 and No. 11 Ohio State 74-59. This is a team that while ranked, is a lot better than they get credit for. A lot of people forget that their run in last year's tournament ended with a heartbreaking 64-63 loss to Michigan, as the Wolverines hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. That same Michigan team made it all the way to the title game. Houston could very well be the surprise team to not only make the Final 4, but win the whole thing. Cougars rank 12th in defensive efficiency and are tops in the country in effective field goal defense. Kentucky is not a great offensive team and chances are they will either be without their leading score PJ Washington or he plays at less than 100%. Wildcats also likely lose to Wofford if their best player doesn't have arguably his worst game of the year (0-12 on 3-pointers). The Cougars are simply the better team. Take Houston! |
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03-28-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan UNDER 126 | 63-44 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
4* Sweet 16 Late Night TOTAL NO-BRAINER on Michigan UNDER This might seem like a low total, but I think it's way too many points for this matchup. These are the top two defenses in the country in defensive efficiency, led by two of the best coaches in the nation in Chris Beard and John Beilein. Each of which has had multiple days to prepare for the other team. Not to mention, neither of these teams like to push the pace and both defend the 3-pointer exceptionally well. This should lead to a lot of very difficult and contested 2-point shots for both teams, which is exactly what you want for a low-scoring game. UNDER is 11-3 in Texas Tech's last 14 non-conference games, including a 9-3 mark in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games. UNDER is also 21-9 in Wolverines last 30 non-conference and 4-1 in their last 5 in the Big Dance. Take the UNDER! |
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03-28-19 | Purdue +2 v. Tennessee | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
3* Sweet 16 No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Purdue + I really like the value here with Purdue getting points against the Vols. I think there's a lot being made of the Boilermakers 0-4 record in Sweet 16 games under Painter, but 3 of those came against a No. 1 seed and last year's ugly loss to Texas Tech came with one of their best players in center Isaac Haas on the sidelines (broke his arm in the 1st round). For whatever reason people don't want to give this Purdue team the props it deserves for finishing tied on top the Big Ten regular-season standings. Not too mention they looked as good as anyone in the Round of 32, absolutely destroying the defending champs 87-61. Tennessee on the other hand has beat No. 15 Colgate by 7 and needed OT to get past No. 10 Iowa. Vols are like a Big Ten team, which I think only benefits the Boilermakers. Boilermakers are 26-14 ATS last 40 non-conference, while Vols are a mere 8-20 ATS last 28 as a neutral court favorite of 3 or less. Take Purdue! |
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03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 80 h 42 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Gonzaga - I think the books are begging for money here on FSU by setting this line as high as they did, knowing that Gonzaga is the far superior team in this matchup and should easily win here by double-digits. I think some of it has to do with how good the ACC has been and the fact that the Seminoles whooped the Bulldogs in the Sweet 16 last year, but it has a lot of people on this FSU team. Seminoles were certainly impressive in their win over Murray State, but the Racers were a No. 12 seed, so that shouldn't have been a huge surprise. FSU shot lights out in that game at 50.7% and this is simply not a great shooting team. They had had failed to hit 40% in 4 of their previous 6. Gonzaga on the other has failed to shoot 50% or better from the field a mere 6 times the entire season. This is not the same offense that FSU shutdown a season ago. Bulldogs have 4 guys in double-figures and 4 of their top 5 scorers shoot 36% or better from deep. Seminoles won't be able to keep pace. Take Gonzaga! |
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03-27-19 | Colorado +7.5 v. Texas | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 47 m | Show |
5* Texas/Colorado NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado + I absolutely love the value here with the Buffaloes as a decently priced road dog against the Longhorns. Colorado has really been playing great basketball for a while now. The Buffaloes are 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. They beat a really strong Dayton team to open up the NIT and then destroyed Norfolk State by 16. Texas on the other hand has squeaked by against South Dakota State and Xavier in the NIT and have just simply been way overvalued of late. Longhorns have failed to cover in 5 straight and are just 7-15 ATS this season when listed as a favorite. Texas has also failed to cover 5 straight against a winning record. The Buffaloes are 8-3 ATS last 11 off a SU win, 10-2 ATS last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team from the Big 12. Take Colorado! |
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03-26-19 | Florida International +4 v. Green Bay | 68-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
4* College Insider Tourn PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida International + Big time value here with the Panthers as a dog. Even though they are on the road, my numbers have this closer to a pick'em with a slight edge to FIU. The Phoenix won 102-94 on th road at East Tennessee State in their first game of the CIT. Scoring 100+ is impressive, but it's just as bad giving up 92 points and 50% shooting. FIU scored 87 on the road against Texas State and they should be able to have their way offensively in this one. Panthers are also a team you want to back in this spot, as they are 20-9 ATS last 29 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 21-10 ATS over the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog! Take Florida International! |
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03-26-19 | Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 220 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Bulls/Raptors UNDER Big time value here with the UNDER in this one. Toronto comes into this game around a 14-point favorite and for good reason, as the Bulls are expected to be without 3 starters in Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Otto Porter Jr. Both LaVine and Porter Jr sat out their last game and the Bulls managed just 83 points on 36% shooting. Without those guys there's just not enough offensive fire-power for the Bulls to put up a ton of points. Making matters even worse for Chicago's offense is they are likely to get a pissed off Raptors team that just lost back-to-back at home. Toronto should be in complete control of this game from the start and blowouts tend to be lower scoring, as there's not as many fouls late and the better players are typically on the bench. These two combined for just 184 points in the most recent meeting and a mere 205 in the only other matchup this season. UNDER is 4-1 in the Bulls last 5 vs a team with a winning percentage above 60% and 5-2 in the Raptors last 7 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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03-25-19 | Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
4* Norfolk St/Colorado NIT VEGAS INSIDER on Norfolk State + Big time value with the Spartans as a double-digit dog. Norfolk State was a 16-point road dog at Alabama in the opening round of the NIT and beat the Crimson Tide outright 80-79. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the Spartans pulled off another upset against Colorado, but I'm confident they will at worst keep this within the number. Colorado was fortunate to come away with a cover in their first game, as they scraped by Dayton 78-73 as a 4.5-point favorite. Buffaloes really didn't deserve to win that game, as they shot just 44% from the field, while Dayton connected on 55% of their attempts. It was a rare cover for Colorado this time of year, as the Buffaloes are still just 4-15 ATS over their last 19 post-season tournament games. Colorado is also just 3-7 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Norfolk State! |
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03-25-19 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 219 | Top | 98-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Sixers/Magic UNDER Love the value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Magic. Orlando comes in off a high-scoring game against the Grizzlies, but they didn't bring the defensive intensity early. When it mattered the most they held Memphis to 15 points in the 4th quarter. Prior to that the Magic had held 3 straight teams under 100 points. Not a big surprise, as Orlando has been the best defensive teams since the All-Star break, at least in terms of points allowed (103.8 ppg). A big reason for that is they have posted the best 3-point percentage defense during this run. No question we are going to get a max effort defensively from Orlando against a top-tier team like the 76ers. UNDER is 18-8 in Magic's last 26 home games vs a team with a winning road record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 vs another team from the east. UNDER is also 6-2 in the 76ers last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! |
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03-24-19 | UCF v. Duke -13 | 76-77 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament VEGAS INSIDER on Duke - The Blue Devils came out flat and only led No. 16 seed North Dakota State by 4-points at the half. That was the wake-up call this team needed, as they outscored the Bison 54-35 in the 2nd half. I'm confident Coach K will make sure his guys don't come out flat again against UCF. I also think there's a little extra incentive here for Duke, as they face the Knights 7'6 Tako Fall, who has already made a little jab at Zion Williamson. I'm expecting a big day for Zion and wouldn't be surprised if they got Fall into foul trouble and wore him down with their ability to get out in transition. Duke is simply the most talented team in the country. They have the two best players in Williamson and RJ Barrett and I think they are going to continue to make easy work of the field on their way to the Final 4. Take Duke! |
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03-23-19 | Pistons v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons UNDER Look for Detroit and Portland to fly UNDER the mark set by the books on Saturday. Pistons have really been playing well for a while now, but he offense has struggled of late. Detroit has shot 43% or worse in 4 of their last 7 and considering they are playing their 4th game in 7 days and 3rd straight on the road, I don't see them going off offensively in this one. Blazers are known for their offense, but this is a very sound defensive team, especially at home. UNDER has actually cashed in 4 of the last 5 games for Portland. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 when they are playing on a full 2 days of rest. UNDER has also gone 16-5 in Detroit's last 21 vs a team from the Western Conference, 33-14-4 in their last 51 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 11-1 in their last 12 when playing 8 or more games in a 14 days stretch. Take the UNDER! |
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03-23-19 | Maryland v. LSU -2 | Top | 67-69 | Push | 0 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU - I love the value here with LSU at basically a pick'em against the Terps. I think the perception with the Tigers right now is there are too many distractions for them to make a deep run. After watching this team against Yale I think this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder. As for Maryland, I just haven't been impressed with this team down the stretch. Terps went just 3-3 to close out the regular-season and were bounced in the first round of the Big Ten Tourny by Nebraska. They were extremely fortunate to get by Belmont on Thursday and I just think they are way outclassed here. LSU has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games with a line of +3 to -3. They are also 8-1 ATS last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 4-0 ATS last 4 games against the Big Ten. After failing to cover against Belmont, Maryland is now 1-7 ATS last 8 NCAA Tournament games. Take LSU! |
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03-23-19 | Arkansas v. Indiana -5.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
4* Indiana/Arkansas NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana - The Hoosiers didn't let the fact that they missed out on the NCAA Tournament keep them from showing up in their NIT opener, as they cruised to a 89-72 win at home. Indiana has won 4 of their last 5 and are sizzling 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. I absolutely love the value here with the Hoosiers at home in this one. Indiana is 14-5 at home, while Arkansas is just 6-9 away from home. That's why you can throw out the fact that the Razorbacks beat the Hoosiers 73-72 at home earlier this season. I actually think that's favors Indiana, who will use that as motivation. Indiana is 13-4 ATS last 17 at home off a win by 10 or more, 11-3 ATS last 14 at home after covering 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 at home when they come in having covered 5-6 of their last 7 games. Take Indiana! |
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03-22-19 | Nets v. Lakers OVER 228.5 | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Nets/Lakers OVER Easy play on the OVER here in Friday's NBA action between Brooklyn and Los Angeles. Lakers are playing little defense and that's to be expected when you have a team that has come up this short on expectations. LA just gave up 121 against the Kings and have allowed at least 114 points in 3 straight. Hasn't been much better for Brooklyn, who has allowed 110 or more in 4 straight and 12 of 13 overall. OVER is 25-9 in Brooklyn's last 34 road games vs a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in the Lakers last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. Take OVER! |
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03-22-19 | Ohio State +6 v. Iowa State | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 108 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State + The Big Ten showed really well on Thursday and I expect more of the same on Friday. We saw a Minnesota team that finished 9-11 in the Big Ten whoop up on Louisville and I think we are going to see the same thing here with the Buckeyes in Friday's showdown with ISU. Cyclones won the Big 12 Tournament so people are on this team, but they were just 9-9 in the Big 12 regular-season and went just 1-5 over their final 6 before winning 3 in a row in the Big 12 Tournament. Cyclones rely a lot on the jump shot and this Buckeyes team can lock down defensively. If Ohio State simply shoots decent they win this game. Take Ohio State! |
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03-22-19 | Northern Kentucky +13 v. Texas Tech | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Kentucky + I like the value here with the Norse as a double-digit dog. I just think Texas Tech is getting a little too much respect here. Sure they played great down the stretch, but it's like everyone is giving them a pass for their ugly loss to West Virginia in the first game of the Big 12 Tournament. I just think teams like Texas Tech, who rely so much on their defense, are primed for upsets in the NCAA Tournament. Virginia is a prime example of that. Northern Kentucky is better than people think and I fully expect them to give the Red Raiders all they can handle in this one. Norse are 9-2 ATS last 11 neutral site games, while Texas Tech is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Take Northern Kentucky! |
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03-22-19 | Iowa +5 v. Cincinnati | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
3* Early Bird NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR on Iowa + Really like the value here with the Hawkeyes at the price. Very few are giving Iowa a chance to win this matchup, much like yesterday's No. 7 vs No. 10 matchup in the East region. Few had No. 10 Minnesota winning and they dominated No. 7 Louisville. Iowa is a better team than the Gophers and I think the Hawkeyes will not only cover but win this game outright. Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS last 10 games played on a neutral site, while Cincinnati is a mere 2-9 ATS last 11 games overall, 3-7 ATS last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament and 1-7 ATS last 8 vs a team with a winning record. Take Iowa! |
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03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAA Tournament NO LIMIT Top Play on Villanova - I love the value here with Villanova in this one. I think people are sleeping on this Wildcats team because they weren't as dominant as the team that won it all last year. Chances are they won't win the title for a 3rd time in 4 years, but I see absolutely no reason they don't make easy work of a St. Mary's team that wouldn't be here if Gonzaga didn't lay an egg in the WCC Tournament finale. This is also the same Gaels team that failed time after time against the better teams they faced in non-conference, losing to Utah State, Mississippi State, Harvard, UC Irvine and LSU. St Mary's is a team that wants to play slow and that plays right into the hands of how Villanova would prefer the game to go. Wildcats have the two best players on the floor in Phil Booth and Eric Paschall. Jay Wright's team won both the regular-season and tournament titles in the Big East and you can't ignore the success they have had in this thing. Villanova attempted the 6th most 3-pointers in the country and ranked 13th in offensive efficiency. If the outside shots are falling they are almost impossible to stay with. Outside of that win over Gonzaga in the WCC Title, St Mary's two best wins were against New Mexico State and San Diego. Let's also not forget they lost by 14 at home to the Bulldogs and by 48 at Gonzaga in the two regular-season meetings. Take Villanova! |
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03-21-19 | Yale +8 v. LSU | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show | |
3* NCAA Tournament UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale + There's no denying that LSU is an extremely talented basketball team. They had the best record of an team in a pretty good SEC this year. Unfortunately for them, thins took a turn for the worse late in the year, as head coach Will Wade was suspended and has created a lot of distractions. They beat Vanderbilt without their coach in the regular-season finale, but the Commodores didn't win a conference game all season, so that's not saying much. They had a chance to make a statement in the SEC Tournament, but were knocked in their first game by Florida. Wade isn't coming back for the NCAA Tournament and I just think not having him and all the other distractions outside of the locker room really swings thing in favor of Yale. The Ivy League has shown well in the NCAA Tournament of late, especially against the spread. Not to mention the Bulldogs are a cohesive unit that returned all 5 starters from last season. That includes an NBA talent in Miye Oni. Yale has covered 11 of their last 14 on a neutral site and are a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. I just think this is a lot of points for LSU to be laying when a win is not a sure thing. Take Yale! |
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03-20-19 | Butler +5.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
5* Nebraska/Butler NIT VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Butler + This is just too good a number to pass up on with Butler. Nebraska was one of those teams that were on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. More times than not, teams who were on the bubble and don't make it, really struggle to play well in that first game of the NIT, regardless if it's at home or not. Not only is that a big factor into the value with Butler, but Nebraska is also dealing with all the off-court rumors regarding Fred Hoiberg. He's the leading candidate to take over for Miles and that would be a big time hire for this program. I just think the focus is already on the future and not this game. As bad as Butler played down the stretch, I think they are going to show up here and give a strong effort. That not only makes them a strong play at this price, but I give them a great chance of winning the game outright. Cornhuskers have gone just 3-8 ATS last 11 vs a team from the Big East and 3-12-1 ATS last 16 when coming off a loss. Take Butler! |
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03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple +3.5 | 81-70 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
4* NCAA Tournament First Four NO-BRAINER on Temple + Give me Temple and the points in Tuesday's play-in game against Belmont. The Bruins are a great story and I got no problem with them being included in the field of 68, I just think the story around this team has them overvalued against a very solid Owls team. Temple played in a pretty tough American Athletic and held their own against the top teams in the conference. They got a dynamic backcourt with Quinton Rose and Shizz Alston Jr, who combined to average 36.2 ppg. These two should feast on a pretty bad Belmont defense, that lets team get easy looks from deep. Owls are also one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers and making opposing offenses uncomfortable. Bruins on the other hand are one of the worst at forcing turnovers. Wrong team is favored in this one. Take Temple! |
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03-19-19 | Rockets -7 v. Hawks | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Rockets - Houston should have no problem covering the spread here on the road against the Hawks. Rockets have really had one of the more impressive turnarounds this season. Early on they looked lost. I mean they were sitting at 14-14 in the middle of December. Now they are just 3.5-games back of both the Nuggets and Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference. Houston comes in having won 11 of their last 12 and are quietly turning up the intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Rockets have held 6 of their last 7 opponents under 43% from the field and the only exception during this stretch was a game against the Warriors. Hawks had been playing well, but they just lost by double-digits at Orlando and shot just 42% from the field in the process. I know Atlanta played Houston tough in a matchup in late February, but I think that will have the Rockets that much more locked in for this one. They should win by double-digits no problem. Take Houston! |
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03-19-19 | Wright State +15 v. Clemson | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
3* NIT No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Wright State + Love the value here with the Raiders as a huge underdog against the Tigers. Clemson didn't expect to be playing in the NCAA Tournament, as they opened up the season in the Top 25. I think it's going to be really tough for them to find the motivation to play up to their true potential in the NIT. No question they are the better team, but I just think Wright State is going to want this game a lot more. The Raiders were definitely playing well down the stretch, as they reached the Horizon title game. They also showed well in non-conference against some quality teams. It's also worth pointing out that while Clemson went a solid 13-4 SU on their home floor, they were just 8-9 ATS at home. Tigers have also failed to cover 5 of their last 9 out of conference. Raiders have covered 8 of their last 11 overtall and are a perfect 6-0 when coming off a loss by 10 or more. Take Wright State! |
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03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards +6 | 116-95 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
3* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY on Wizards + Love the value here with the Wizards as a big home dog against the Jazz. I just think Utah is being extremely overvalued in this spot. The Jazz come in having won 3 straight, but two of those were at home against the Nets and Wolves. The other was at the Suns, who own one of the worst records in the league. Washington might have a 30-40 overall record, but this team continues to play extremely hard, as they try to sneak into the playoffs in the East. Wizards have been way undervalued of late, as they are 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS over their last 8 games. Wizards have covered 21 of their last 33 at home and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 at home when they come in having covered 4 or 5 of their last 6. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 at home after scoring 120+ points in their previous games. Utah is 7-15 ATS last 22 when they coming in having covered 3 of their last 4. Take Washington! |
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03-17-19 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 232 | 130-125 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Sixers/Bucks UNDER Books have set the total way too high for Sunday's afternoon showdown between the Bucks and 76ers. This is a big time matchup, as both of these teams are trying to take claim to the Eastern Conference now that LeBron is gone. I look for both teams to come out looking to send a message to the other side. UNDER has been a money-maker in 76ers game of late, as it's cashed in 8 of the last 9 games for Philadelphia. UNDER is also a perfect 8-0 in the 76ers last 8 road games with a total of 230 or more and 6-0 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Bucks last 10 at home, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team from the East and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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03-17-19 | Michigan +1 v. Michigan State | 60-65 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
4* Mich St/Michigan Big Ten Champ NO-BRAINER on Michigan + I'm extremely confident in the Wolverines getting their revenge against the Spartans. Michigan State won both regular-season meetings, but the Wolverines could have taken both of those games. Either way, Michigan is playing their best basketball when it matters the most. Which is nothing new under John Beilein. Wolverines whooped up on Iowa 74-53 and then rolled Minnesota 76-49. They are now 8-3 ATS last 11 overall and 12-4 ATS last 16 tournament games. Michigan is 10-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons when revenging a road loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot when revenging a road loss by 10 or more. Michigan State on the other hand is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games played on a neutral site. Take Michigan! |
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03-17-19 | Auburn v. Tennessee UNDER 147 | Top | 84-64 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Over/Under TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Auburn/Tennessee UNDER Absolutely love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's SEC title game between Auburn and Tennessee. These two teams just played in the regular-season finale and combined for 164 points, but both teams shot lights out. Both were better than 46% from the field, combined for 22 made 3-pointers and 32 free throws. That was the first and only meeting between the two. Second meeting is typically a lot lower-scoring and no question we are going to get max effort from both teams with what is at stake. UNDER is 10-2 in the Vols last 12 after two straight games that went over the total and is a perfect 6-0 in the Tigers last 6 road games when they come in having covered 3 straight. UNDER is also 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 when playing their 3rd game in 5 days. Take the UNDER! |
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03-16-19 | Texas State v. Georgia State +1 | Top | 46-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia State + Love the value here with the Panthers at basically a pick'em against the Bobcats. Georgia State closed out the regular-season on quite a run. The Panthers won 3 straight and 6 of their final 7 games, going 5-1-1 ATS in the process. Texas State on the other hand lost their final two before getting back in the win column yesterday with a victory over South Alabama. Note that while the Bobcats had to play on Friday, Georgia State was not in action, giving them a major edge in rest. Texas State did win the most recent meeting on the road, but that's almost a positive for us, as the Panthers are 31-14-4 ATS when playing with revenge and have covered 5 straight in this spot. Take Georgia State! |
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03-16-19 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -5 | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State - This is just too good a price to pass up on the Spartans. I know both teams failed to cover in their quarterfinal matchups on Friday, but I though Michigan State looked the better team and there's no question they have the more talent on their roster. Wisconsin had all kinds of rest against a Nebraska team that is short-handed and playing their 3rd game in 3 days and barely came away with a win. Badgers big man Ethan Happ scored just 4 points and if he's not on his game in this one, this is going to get ugly in a hurry. These two only met once during the regular-season, but that was at Wisconsin and the Spartans won that contest by 8. If they can win by 8 on the road, I'm confident they can win by 6 or more on a neutral court, especially with how well they are playing down the stretch. Spartans are now 21-8 ATS last 29 games when listed as the favorite and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 75 or more points in 3 straight games. They have also covered 18 of their last 23 against a team with a winning record, while the Badgers are just 2-6-1 ATS last 9 overall. Take Michigan State! |
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03-15-19 | Alabama v. Kentucky -11.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Kentucky - I got zero problem here laying double-digits with Kentucky against the Crimson Tide. Wildcats might not have won the SEC regular-season title, but I still think they are the best team in the conference. Calipari always has this team peaking come tournament time and I expect a big time effort here against Alabama, who handed them one of their 3 losses in conference play. Wildcats are 34-18 ATS in their last 52 SEC Tournament games and are 28-13 ATS when revenging a loss as a road favorite. Alabama has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and are 2-8 ATS in this spot this season. Take Kentucky! |
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03-15-19 | SMU v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
5* NCAAB American Tournament TOP PLAY on Cincinnati - I really like the number here with Cincinnati, as I see the Bearcats beating the Mustangs by double-digits easy. Not only is Cincinnati the better team, but they are going to be desperate for a win after closing out the regular-season with back to back losses. Not that those were bad losses, as they lost at UCF and at home to Houston. SMU was able to beat Tulsa yesterday, but while they were playing the Bearcats were resting and this Mustangs team has really struggled away from home and in similar spots. SMU is 5-14 ATS last 19 after playing their previous game as a favorite, 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road after a win and 0-6 ATS last 6 road games after 2 straight wins (won regular-season finale against USF). Take Cincinnati! |
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03-15-19 | St. Joe's v. Davidson -6 | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Davidson - This is too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats. Davidson closed out the regular-season with 3 straight wins and in the most recent meeting with the Hawks they won by 8 at home. Key here to an even wider margin of victory is the fact that the Wildcats will be playing on 5 days of rest, while St. Joes is on no rest after a grueling up and down 92-86 win over Duquesne on Thursday. That was also a rare win away from home for the Hawks, who are just 4-13 in true road games/neutral site games this season. St. Joe's has also been a great team to fade off a win, as they are 2-10 ATS last 12 in this spot. Wildcats on the other hand are 7-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite. Take Davidson! |
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03-15-19 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -11 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 4 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Big Ten Tournament TOP PLAY on Michigan State - This might seem like a big number for the Spartans to be laying, but I see Michigan State having zero problem whooping up on the Buckeyes. For starters, they have already done it twice. First they won by 9 as a mere 2-point road favorite in Columbus and then they won by 18 as a 12-point home favorite in the rematch. This is also a Michigan State team that in typical Tom Izzo fashion is peaking at the perfect time. After losing 3 straight in late Jan/early Feb the Spartans have gone 7-1 over their last 8, with the only loss coming by 1-point at Indiana after a big win at rival Michigan. On top of all that, Michigan State will be getting back one of their best players in big man Nick Ward, who has missed over a month after suffering a broken hand. Spartans are 15-5 ATS last 20 against Big Ten opponents and a perfect 6-0 ATS last 6 off back-to-back home wins by 10 or more. Take Michigan State! |
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Jimmy Boyd Basketball Picks
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz -2.5 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
10-30-19 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 215 | 96-110 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6.5 | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat -8 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-28-19 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 235 | 134-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
10-28-19 | Thunder +10.5 v. Rockets | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
10-28-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
10-27-19 | Blazers v. Mavs -2 | Top | 121-119 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
10-26-19 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 228 | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
10-26-19 | Pelicans +11 v. Rockets | Top | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
10-25-19 | Blazers v. Kings OVER 225 | Top | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10-25-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | 106-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
10-23-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 218 | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10-23-19 | Cavs v. Magic -8 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
06-13-19 | Raptors +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
06-10-19 | Warriors +4 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 61 h 51 m | Show |
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
06-05-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 123-109 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 51 m | Show |
05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors +1 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
05-19-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | 112-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
05-16-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 207.5 | Top | 90-92 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 60 m | Show |
05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -6 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
05-09-19 | Raptors v. 76ers +2 | Top | 101-112 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show |
05-06-19 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | 108-112 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
05-04-19 | Warriors +4 v. Rockets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 215 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 56 h 53 m | Show |
05-01-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -3.5 | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
04-28-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -7 | Top | 112-90 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 29 m | Show |
04-27-19 | 76ers v. Raptors -5.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 20 m | Show |
04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 129-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
04-23-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 212 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
04-23-19 | Nets v. 76ers -7.5 | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 35 h 52 m | Show | |
04-23-19 | Magic v. Raptors -11.5 | Top | 96-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
04-22-19 | Bucks -12 v. Pistons | 127-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
04-21-19 | Blazers +6 v. Thunder | Top | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | 117-103 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
04-19-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
04-17-19 | Pistons v. Bucks OVER 211 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
04-16-19 | Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 219 | 94-114 | Win | 100 | 37 h 30 m | Show | |
04-16-19 | Thunder +2 v. Blazers | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
04-16-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 82-111 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 1 m | Show | |
04-15-19 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 226 | 123-145 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
04-14-19 | Thunder +145 v. Blazers | 99-104 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets -5.5 | 101-96 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
04-10-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -6 | Top | 137-143 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
04-09-19 | Rockets -1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia -115 | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
04-07-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
04-06-19 | Auburn v. Virginia UNDER 131.5 | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 79 h 20 m | Show | |
04-06-19 | Nets +8.5 v. Bucks | 133-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
04-05-19 | Raptors v. Hornets OVER 223 | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
04-05-19 | Hawks v. Magic -8.5 | 113-149 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
04-03-19 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 220 | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
04-02-19 | Texas Southern v. Green Bay -5 | Top | 86-87 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
04-01-19 | Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 205.5 | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
03-31-19 | Auburn +5 v. Kentucky | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
03-30-19 | Purdue v. Virginia -4.5 | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
03-29-19 | Houston +3 v. Kentucky | Top | 58-62 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
03-28-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan UNDER 126 | 63-44 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
03-28-19 | Purdue +2 v. Tennessee | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
03-28-19 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 80 h 42 m | Show |
03-27-19 | Colorado +7.5 v. Texas | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 47 m | Show |
03-26-19 | Florida International +4 v. Green Bay | 68-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
03-26-19 | Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 220 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
03-25-19 | Norfolk State +14.5 v. Colorado | 60-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
03-25-19 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 219 | Top | 98-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
03-24-19 | UCF v. Duke -13 | 76-77 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
03-23-19 | Pistons v. Blazers UNDER 216 | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
03-23-19 | Maryland v. LSU -2 | Top | 67-69 | Push | 0 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
03-23-19 | Arkansas v. Indiana -5.5 | 60-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
03-22-19 | Nets v. Lakers OVER 228.5 | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
03-22-19 | Ohio State +6 v. Iowa State | Top | 62-59 | Win | 100 | 108 h 27 m | Show |
03-22-19 | Northern Kentucky +13 v. Texas Tech | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
03-22-19 | Iowa +5 v. Cincinnati | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
03-21-19 | St. Mary's v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 57-61 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 27 m | Show |
03-21-19 | Yale +8 v. LSU | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show | |
03-20-19 | Butler +5.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple +3.5 | 81-70 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
03-19-19 | Rockets -7 v. Hawks | 121-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
03-19-19 | Wright State +15 v. Clemson | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
03-18-19 | Jazz v. Wizards +6 | 116-95 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
03-17-19 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 232 | 130-125 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
03-17-19 | Michigan +1 v. Michigan State | 60-65 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
03-17-19 | Auburn v. Tennessee UNDER 147 | Top | 84-64 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
03-16-19 | Texas State v. Georgia State +1 | Top | 46-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
03-16-19 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -5 | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
03-15-19 | Alabama v. Kentucky -11.5 | 55-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
03-15-19 | SMU v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
03-15-19 | St. Joe's v. Davidson -6 | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
03-15-19 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -11 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 4 m | Show |