MTi's BIG CHALK PLAY!!: MTi rarely releases big favorites in baseball. However, here they have a perfect storm. We have team-based and starter-based trends that indicate this one should be a blowout. Reasonably priced at just $15 (favorites are priced cheaper than dogs simply because favorites are more likely to win).
Game: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels Apr 16 2012 10:05PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: We’re getting solid line value here because Brandon McCarthy is off a good start. He went six innings and allowed only two runs in a 5-4 win over the Royals at home. In his first start of the season, he lost at home to the Mariners, allowing five runs in five innings of work. Here, he is on the road vs a good team – a huge step up in class from pitching at home vs the Mariners and Royals. We expect the Angels to light him up here.
The Athletics are 0-6 in franchise history on the road with McCarthy when he is off a start in which he went six-plus innings and allowed six or fewer hits. The A’s have lost these six games by an average of 3.2 runs per game. The Angels are actually behind the A’s in the divisional standings, so we can count on LA to be focused. On the other hand, the Athletics are The Athletics are 0-11 as a road dog vs an AL West foe that is BEHIND them in the divisional standings. The SDQL text is:
team=Athletics and 20100514<=date and AD and (to:division=division) and WP>o:WP
The Angels spotted Weaver an early lead in his last start, but LA lost 6-5 to the Twins. This should have Weaver at his best. LA is 12-0 when Jered Weaver starts at home when he is off a start in which they scored first and lost. Their opponent has scored 2 runs or fewer in ten of the 12 games.
Finally, the A’s are 36-86 on the road when they are off a loss in which they never led and 12-36 on the road when they are off two losses in which they never led. They are not likely to turn things around in this spot.
LA, on the other hand is a focused 89-53 after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and 91-46 as a favorite when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost.
The Angels should be -280 here.
MTi’s FORECAST: LA ANGELS 6 Oakland 1