MTi's PHILLIES - GIANTS WINNER!!: MTi Sports win their END-OF-SERIES PLAY OF THE MONTH yesterday with Detroit. As a team, the Tigers are the best in the league in the last game of a series off a loss. Detroit is now 20-0 during the regular season in the last game of a series when they are off a loss. Here is another well reasoned, thoroughly researched selection. Only $25
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants Apr 16 2012 10:15PM
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: Tim Lincecum has had two bad outings this season and he has always been a starter that has a tough time when he is off a bad start. In his career the Giants are 5-13 with Lincecum when he had a WHIP of at least two in his last start and lost. Since 2009, the Giants are 2-10 in this spot.
In addition, we find that Tim Lincecum has produced a team record of 0-7 since 2009 with a total of 8 or less following a game where he worked less than 5 innings. The Giants have lost these seven games by an average of 4.0 runs and they were the favorite in all but one of them. Every loss was by multiple runs. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
starter=Tim Lincecum and season>=2009 and s:SIP<5 and total<=8
The Phillies have struggled offensively to start the season, but they scored a season-high eight runs yesterday and that should get them going. Philadelphia is 56-23 after scoring 6+ runs win in a day game for a net profit of 23.4 units and 31-11 on the road when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they are off a win in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter.
As a team, the Giants have been very flat in a series opener. San Francisco is 4-15 in a night series opener, dropping 16.6 net units.
Also, the Giants are 0-6 when Tim Lincecum starts in the first game of a series.
On the other hand, this is the type of game that the Phillies are at their best. Philadelphia is 44-22 at night in the first game of a road series when their line is within 20 cents of pickem. In other words, when the linesmakers rate a series opener a toss up, the Phillies are HUGELY profitable.
MTi’s FORECAST: PHILADELPHIA 7 San Francisco 4
As you can see from our prediction, we like the over.