MTi's LIVE DOG!!!: MTi Sports Forecasting took it on the chin yesterday, going 0-3. Two dogs lost by a single run. Check out the write-ups at PAST RESULTS. Win or lose, we're proud of our analysis and hard work. Here is another live dog. Reasonably priced at $25.
Game: Cleveland Indians at Kansas City Royals Apr 15 2012 2:10PM
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Grade: Loser (-100)
Reason: This has been a terrible scheduling spot for the Tribe, as they are 1-19 during the day vs an AL opponent in the last game of a series when they are off a night game. They are already 0-1 in this spot this season, losing 10-6 as a 140 favorite.
In addition, Cleveland tends to give wins like yesterday’s right back. The Indians are 3-12 when they are off a win in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent’s starter and 6-17 after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers.
Ubaldo did have an excellent outing in his first start of the season, going seven innings and allowing two runs at home. However, the Tribe lost 7-4 in extra frames. Cleveland has not been a good investment here, as they are 0-10 since last May when visiting an AL opponent and they blew a lead in their starter’s last start and lost. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Indians and A and s:L and s:BL>0 and o:conference=AL and date>=20110501 Note that Cleveland has lost these ten games by an average of 6.7 runs. Yikes.
The Royals have been a very live dog in this spot. Kansas City is 17-5 as a DOG when they are off a game in which they allowed at least five runs – including 10-0 their last ten. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Royals and D and po:runs>=5 and p:L and 20110703<=date
Note that in their lone game this season, they beat the Angels and Haren at plus-170. We’ll take them to move this trend to 11-0.
MTi’s FORECAST: KANSAS CITY 6 Cleveland 4