Ryan’s Sweet 16 30* Total of the Year; 75% ATS: Ryan has hit three-of-four for 75% ATS winners with his 30* College Hoops Games of the Year for the full season. These RARE plays, like all of his premium releases, comes with solid and complete research showing you why you can wager this play w/Confidence.
Game: Wisconsin at Syracuse Mar 22 2012 7:15PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: 30* graded play ‘OVER’ Syracuse/Wisconsin in the Round of 16 of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship set to start at 7:15 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that 125 or more points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 56-24 ‘over’ for 70% winners since 2006. Play ‘over’ with neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less in a game involving two very good teams outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the second half of the season. The sim shows a high probability that Wisconsin will make between 31 and 37% of their three point shots and will make better than 79% of their free throw attempts. In past games, they are 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) when their opponents make 31% to 37% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons; 23-13 OVER (+8.7 Units) when they make 79% or more of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons. Syracuse is coming off a strong 75-59 win over K-State and easily covered the 5 ˝ point spread. They also allowed 31.3% shooting and in past games are 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 33% or less over the last three seasons. Both teams, especially Wisconsin are solid free throw shooting teams. Wisconsin ranks 32nd in the nation making 74.2% of their free throw attempts. I believe the game will be a physical one with both teams look to penetrate and then either drive to the rim or dish back out a wide open perimeter shooting teammate. This will lead to a higher number of fouls called. In summary, if more than 33 fouls are called in this game it will only reinforce the probability that the winning play will be the ‘over’. Moreover, Wisconsin’s offense need to shoot earlier in the 35 shot clock. They have had a tendency to move the ball excessively in possessions, however against a Syracuse zone, the three will be available for scores early in the shot clock. Wisconsin must take somewhat of a gamble and get out to a fast start and possess the lead. if they fall behind, they are not the type of team that can use explosive offensive scoring to reduce a double digit deficit. However, if Syracuse gets out to a fast lead, they will keep the foot on the gas and look to increase the offensive pressure on the Wisconsin defense. Either scenario leads to a much higher scoring game than the vegas line reflects. Take the ‘over’ as your 30* Sweet 16 Game of the Year.