SCOTT SPREITZER'S SWEET-16 KNOCKOUT! *8-1 & 20-6!: Scott Spreitzer has DESTROYED the books in the Big Dance, currently 8-1, 89% since last Thursday - and he's a red-hot, 20-6, 77% in Big Dance action since last year! Grab Scott's SWEET-16 THURSDAY KNOCKOUT, backed by multiple matchup advantages! Make the move then deliver the books a BONE-JARRING BLOW!
Game: Florida at Marquette Mar 22 2012 10:15PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: I'm backing the Florida Gators, plus the points on Thursday. The Gators were very good to us in their round-two win over Norfolk State, showing they were in a "take no prisoner" state of mind early in the game and keeping their foot on the gas. Florida enters the Sweet-16 as the team that allowed the fewest points through the first two rounds combined. Those teams usually continue to roll through this round, at least against the spread, currently on an 18-9 ATS run the last 27 years. I believe Florida owns too many options for Marquette, virtually a two-man team on the offensive end. The Golden Eagles have just two players, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, averaging in double-digits in scoring. And if you saw the shot selection by Marquette in their win over Murray State, you realize this team is not the most disciplined team in the Sweet-16. I counted numerous times when the Eagles were out-numbered on the offensive end, yet still chose to drive to the basket. They failed to make their shots about 62% of the time in the "escape" against the Racers, and made just 26.7% from behind the arc. Marquette has been weak from the 3-point line this season, a scary situation here, since they're out-sized inside. The Eagles also rank 282nd in rebounds allowed per game. And while Marquette has just one player averaging over 5.4 rpg, Florida has three players averaging between 6.3 rpg and 6.7 rpg. All five Gator starters average over 10 ppg. They can go inside with Murphy and Young, or shoot from outside, led by Boynton and Walker. Florida scored over 76 ppg this season on 46.4% shooting, including the nation's 29th best 3-point accuracy, making 38.3% of their treys. Dangerous in the paint and beyond the 3-point line makes this team awfully dangerous. It certainly doesn't hurt that Billy Donovan has been here many times before, including two tourneys ending in national titles. Donovan is 23-12 ATS in the Big Dance at Florida. The Gators are 7-1 ATS against teams that outscore their opponents by at least 8 ppg. Florida has won those games by an average score of 74-65. They're 17-5 ATS against teams that shoot at least 45% and hold the opposition to 42% or less. Florida knows how to beat the best and in the Big Dance. Finally, Marquette certainly had their problems against SEC teams this season, losing by 8 at LSU as an 8 point favorite, and losing by 17 at home to Vanderbilt as an 8 1/2 point favorite. I believe they're going to end up on the losing end again. I'm backing Florida plus the points on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.