FREE PICK - Ole Miss Rebels -14
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 196

This is one line that didn't make a lot of sense to me. I think Ole Miss at a minimum should be a 17.5-point favorite in this game. Success has followed Lane Kiffin ever since his 3-year stint with the Crimson Tide. He instantly turned FAU into a power in C-USA (were coming off 3 straight 3-win seasons and won 11 games in his first year on the job). 

He took over Ole Miss last year in the midst of a pandemic and went 5-5 with a 9-game SEC schedule and a matchup with Indiana in a bowl (won 26-20). Their 4-5 record in conference play was the best in 5 years. 

They got just about everyone back (16 returning starters), including star quarterback Matt Corral. The offense wasn't the problem last year. They averaged 39.2 ppg and scored 48 against Alabama. It was the defense that held them back. 

They really thought they would be better on that side of the ball in 2021. So far, it looks to be the case. That defense played extremely well in their 43-24 win against Louisville. They really dominated until they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half (Rebels led 29-3 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter). I don't think there's any doubt its improved. 

Not only do I think people are sleeping on just how good this Ole Miss team is, but I think people see that Tulane only lost 35-40 at Oklahoma and just assume they will be able to keep it within 2 TD's. What they don't look at is how that game played out. The Sooners led 37-14 at the half and went on to score just 3-points in the 2nd half. Ole Miss is scoring at will against this defense. 

I'm also not so sure that the Rebels aren't better than Oklahoma. I definitely don't think there's as big a gap between them as this line indicates. The Sooners were a 31-point home favorite, which is basically saying Ole Miss would be around a 17-point dog on a neutral site to Oklahoma. 

I think the only way the Rebels don't win by 20 is if they don't show up to play. With a bye week on deck, there's no reason for them to not be 100% focused on getting this win. Keep in mind the fact that Tulane rallied to make it close vs Oklahoma will help keep Ole Miss from overlooking them. Give me the Rebels -14! 

#2 Ranked NCAAF Handicapper in 2021! Brandon Lee and his clients are off to a blistering 16-6 (73%) CFB Run to open up the new season. This includes a 12-3 CFB Run on Saturday Plays. 

**88-58 (60%) L146 CFB Plays**

Don't miss out on your chance to unload on the books this Saturday with Saturday's Week 3 NCAAF 5-Pack!

This package includes TWO 50* GOM SELECTIONS (5-0 L5 CFB Top Plays) and is yours for the low price of just $60!

You are GUARANTEED TO PROFIT or you will get Lee's next CFB card for FREE!

50* (CFB) - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH (Arizona St -3.5) 

I love Arizona State as a slim 3.5-point road favorite against BYU. This is the ultimate let down spot for BYU off that shocking 26-17 home win over rival Utah as a 7-point dog. That was far from just another game for the Cougars. Beating Utah is everything to them and they had lost 9 straight in that series.

Simply put, that was BYU's Super Bowl. Even with a good Arizona State coming to town, one that's ranked ahead of the Cougars at No. 19 in the polls, it will be near impossible for BYU to bring that same energy and effort they put on display against the Utes. 

I know everyone was calling for Utah as the team to beat in the Pac-12 South, but I'm not convinced that's the case. It's not out of the question Herm Edwards' Sun Devils aren't a better team. Arizona State has looked sharp, crushing Southern Utah 41-14 and UNLV 37-10. 

I think the only thing holding people back on the Sun Devils is their schedule. Hard to get excited about a team beating up on bad teams. I think it has them flying a bit under the radar and I see them being extremely motivated in this game. They certainly won't be overlooking BYU after they just beat one of their biggest threats in the Pac-12 South. 

Let's also not forget that we are talking about a BYU team that is destined to be worse after losing a QB the caliber of Zach Wilson. The Cougars only beat Arizona 24-16 in Week 1 and were outgained in that game 426 to 368 by the Wildcats. The same Arizona team that got absolutely destroyed 38-14 at home by San Diego State last week. Give me the Sun Devils -3.5! 

50* (CFB) - Sharp Money TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 56.5) 

I think the fact that BC lost starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury has created some big time value on the OVER in Saturday's game against Temple. I just don't think the drop off to backup Dennis Grosel is as big as people might think. Grosel came in relief of Jurkovec in last week's 45-28 win over UMass and completed 11 of 14 for 199 yards. 

There's also last year's season finale at Virginia, where Grosel got the start for an inured Jurkovec. He was 32 of 46 (69.6%) for 520 yards and 4 scores. I don't see the Owls having any kind of answer for this BC passing attack. 

Don't be fooled by Temple's defense in their first two games. While they held Rutgers to just 365 total yards, the Scarlet Knights put up 61 on the Owls. Even an awful Akron team that didn't score a point until the 4th quarter against Auburn was able to put up 24 points. Let's also not forget that same Rutgers offense that shredded Temple had just 17 points and 195 total yards in their game against Syracuse last week. 

It's not out of the question here that BC could put up a 50 spot. I certainly think they can get to at least 40. That means we just need a little bit out of this Temple offense to cash a winner. 

I think they can. Boston College's defense isn't anything special. If UMass can score 28 against them, so can Temple. My numbers have this game at 64.5. That's a full 8 points of value we are getting. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

40* (CFB) - Auburn/Penn St Prime Time NO-BRAINER (Penn St -6) 

I was on the Nittany Lions in their 16-10 upset win on the road against Wisconsin as a 5-point dog in Week 1. I will gladly back them laying just 6 at home against Auburn Saturday night. I was extremely high on Penn State coming into this season. I saw them as being one of the most improved teams from 2020. 

For them to win on the road against a very good Badgers team shows that. I was also impressed with how they came out and took care of business last week against Ball State 44-13 as a 22.5-point favorite. That was a massive letdown spot off the game against Wisconsin and this game against Auburn on deck. That to me further backs just how much better this year's Penn State team is. 

The other big thing here is the extra juice that the Nittany Lions get at home under the lights at Beaver Stadium. They do a "white out" once a year in a night home game and Auburn is the team they picked for it. This is 100% a statement game for Penn State. 

Auburn has started 2-0, but I think it's a bit of fools gold. They beat one of the worst FBS teams in the country in Akron 60-10 and ran it up on lowly Alabama State 62-0 in their second game. Talk about a massive step up in competition. 

Sure Tigers' quarterback Bo Nix has put up some decent numbers in his first two starts. Most Power 5 QBs would against those two teams. I just can't help myself go back to the last couple of years and all the poor games that Nix has played on the road. I just don't trust him in this spot, especially in this kind of chaotic atmosphere. Give me Penn State -6! 

40* (CFB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (USC -8) 

I see this is as the perfect buy low spot on USC, as they are only a 8-point road favorite against Washington State. The Trojans fell flat on their face last week at home against Stanford, losing outright 28-42 as a 17-point favorite. There's just not going to be many rushing to back USC laying more than a TD on the road, especially after the Trojans just fired head coach Clay Helton. 

Some might see the firing of Helton as a sign that the team is in turmoil just two weeks into the season, but I see it as a big positive. At least for this game. 9 times out of 10 a team will respond with one of their best efforts the first game after their head coach was fired. They just feel a bit responsible and they also want to play well for the new guy. 

In this case it will be associate head coach Donte Williams, who joined last year as their CB and pass game coordinator on defense. One thing to note about Williams, is he will be the first black head coach in USC history. That's a big deal to a lot of these kids. He's also an LA native, so the fans will be behind this. It's not like they were in love with Helton. 

As for Washington State, I don't think they have what it gots to keep it close against a motivated USC team, even at home. We already saw the Cougars lose outright at home to Utah State as a 18-point favorite. 

Not to mention, the Trojans destroyed Washington State 38-13 last year and it really wasn't that close. USC had a 35-6 lead at the half and put forth little to no effort in the 2nd half. I just don't see the Cougars keeping this to single digits. Give me the Trojans -8! 

40* (CFB) - Sharp Money ATS STEAMROLLER (Miami -6.5)

I’m going to take the No. 24 ranked Miami Hurricanes as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Michigan State Spartans. I always like to look for good teams that aren’t getting a lot of love. This Miami team is far from being hyped up. People were disappointed that they couldn’t keep it more respectable against Alabama in the opener. They lost 44-13 as a 19.5-pt dog. The same can be said about last week’s gut-wrenching 25-23 win at home against Appalachian State, where they closed as a 7-point favorite. 

You really can’t read too much in the loss to Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been doing that in Week 1 to other Power 5 teams for years now under Nick Saban. Even though they had no chance, I’m sure Miami coaches and players talked themselves into believing they could win that game. It should be expected that they come out flat against a team that they know they are more talented then. I’m not saying the Mountaineers had no shot, I just don’t think they got Miami’s best shot in that game. I also think it says a lot about how the Hurricanes were able to dig themselves out of a hole in the 4th quarter to win that game. I think winning a game like that in the final minutes can spark a team. With all the negative talk they are hearing about their start to the year, I feel really good about the mindset of the Hurricanes on Saturday. 

I know Michigan State is off to a 2-0 start with an impressive 38-21 win at Northwestern as a 3-point dog and a 42-14 win and cover at home against Youngstown State as a 27-point favorite, I just wonder if we aren’t overreacting a little bit with their first two games. Let’s not forget they are coming off a 2-5 season in 2020, where they only averaged 18.0 ppg and gave up 35.1 ppg. To think they are anything close to the team that is averaging 40 ppg and giving up 17.5 ppg thru their first two is crazy. 

I went back and took another look at the Michigan State/Northwestern game in Week 1. They couldn’t have had a better start to that game. The very first play of the game they score a TD on a 75-yard run. Northwestern drives down and misses a field goal. Spartans turn around and score again to make it 14-0. It completely changed how the Wildcats had to play and allowed the Spartans to play to their strength offensively with the run game. One thing that is worth noting from that game is they gave up 400 yards of offense to Northwestern. The same Northwestern offense that could only muster 275 total yards at home against Indiana State. I’m just not so sure this Michigan State defense is as good as what people might think after their first two games. 

On the flip side of this, I think this is really bad matchup for the Spartans offense. Michigan State is a run-first team and struggle to throw it when the run isn’t there. Miami’s always got a strong front 7 and have held their own against the run against two really good running teams. They are only giving up 3.6 yards/carry, almost a full yard better per carry than what their opponents average. If they are able to slow down that run game, their pass rush should have a field day, which in turn is going to lead to turnovers and quick scores. I also think if the Hurricanes can get out to any kind of lead, they can run with and really turn this into a blowout. I can’t believe this line is under a touchdown. Give me the Hurricanes -6.5! 

40* (NFL) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 47) 

I think we are getting some decent value with the OVER in this game. I just think people have a hard time seeing a high-scoring game with the Steelers after how bad the offense looked and how great the defense was in that Week 1 win over the Bills. 

Yes, the Pittsburgh offense was bad in the 1st half of that game against Buffalo, but they really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half. They had 229 of their 252 total yards in the final two quarters. 

I think we are going to see that offense start strong and finish strong against a bad Raiders defense. Not to mention the emotional letdown defensively coming off that crazy MNF game vs the Ravens. 

Pittsburgh is also in a bit of a letdown off that massive game against the Bills. Their defense is maybe the best in the league, but this Raiders offense can put up points on just about any defense. If they can just sniff 20 points, this thing is going to easily get to 50. 

OVER is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 games as a dog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Average combined score in the 7-0 streak is 64.0 ppg! Give me the OVER 47! 

40* (NFL) Situational Over/Under TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (OVER 47.5)

I think both of these offenses are coming off very unfavorable matchups. I think you could make a legit case that the Steelers and Patriots are the two best defensive teams in the AFC this year.

Since the Bills drafted Josh Allen back in the 2018 offseason, the OVER in this division series is 5-1 with 5 straight covers. Last year the total set in both of their games was 42 and they combined for 59 and 84 points in the two games they played. They have combined for at least 52 in each of the last 5. 

One thing to note about that Bills defense and the good numbers it put up last week against the Steelers, they couldn’t get off the field in the 2nd half.  After holding Pittsburgh scoreless and allowing just 23 total yards in the 1st half, the Steelers scored on all 4 of their 2nd half possessions and put up 229 yards. 

As for Miami, they were extremely lucky to only give up 17 points. Not only did they give up nearly 400 yards to a rookie QB on the road, they only forced two punts the entire game and one of those they were lucky didn’t end in a field goal. Pats had 1st and 10 on the 30 and ended up 4th and 17 on the 37. 

I also think weather could play into a high-scoring game. It’s suppose to be hot and humid in Miami this Sunday, so I would expect the defenses to wear down as the game goes on. Give me the OVER 47.5!

40* (NFL) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Chargers -3) 

I'm going to take the Los Angeles Chargers as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Dallas Cowboys. After watching that Cowboys/Bucs game last Thursday, I immediately circled this game at the Chargers as a spot to play against Dallas. 

The betting public loves the Cowboys and are going to be betting them like crazy here after what they saw out of this Dallas offense with Dak Prescott under center.

That offense is really good, but I'm not as high on that Tampa Bay secondary as others. It's the front 7 that really makes that Bucs defense. I think they could have a little tougher time against this Chargers secondary. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick barely played, but you can't ignore the fact that they held Washington 133 yards passing. That's unheard of in today's NFL. Let's also not forget their new head coach, Brandon Stately got this job because of what he did on the defensive side of the ball with the Rams. 

The even bigger thing that is getting overlooked with Dallas because of all the attention Dak and that offense are getting, is this Cowboys defense is once again one of the worst units in the league. I thought they were fortunate to only give up 31 to Brady and the Bucs. 

The Chargers offense didn't wow us in Week 1, as they only put up 20 points in their win over Washington. While I don't know if the Football Team is as good defensively as what everyone is saying, that's a much better defense than the one they will face on Sunday and they should be much more comfortable at home. They did have an impressive 424 yards of total offense against Washington. I think Justin Herbert is going to have a field day in this one and I would be shocked if LA didn't put up at least 30 in this one. Give me the Chargers -3! 

50* (NFL) - AFC East PLAY OF THE MONTH (Pats -4.5) 

I absolutely love the Patriots this week. I bet them early before the line jumped even more, but I do still recommend a play at the current line. As long as this is less than a touchdown, play it. 

New England was one of my favorite bets in Week 1 that didn't get home. It definitely felt like the right side, as the Pats dominated the box score. NE really beat themselves in that one. Rarely have we seen a Bill Belichick coached team execute poorly in 2 straight games. 

Let's also not overlook who they are playing. The Jets are awful. I think they may have something in rookie QB Zach Wilson and that's maybe why they are getting some love early on. The problem isn't Wilson, it's the offensive line. Wilson was sacked 6 times in last week's loss to the Panthers. Add in the mastery of Belichick against rookie QBs and there's just little upside for that Jets offense that can't run the ball to do much of anything. 

The Pats also have a rookie QB in Mac Jones. I said before the season he was my favorite pick to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and he was by far the best rookie QB in Week 1. He's only going to get better as he learns that McDaniels offense. I think NE will have no problem moving the ball and winning this game by at least double-digits. Give me the Pats -4.5!