NFL Betting Preview: Philadelphia at Tennessee
by John Ryan
Sunday, October 24th, 1:00 ET
Tennessee favored by 3 points +100 with a 42 1/2 point total
Two teams with identical records and both tied for the lead in their respective divisions will square off in this inter-conference game. Both teams boast 4-2 records with Philadelphia tied on top of the NFC East Division and Tennessee tied with Houston and Indianapolis AFC South Division. The winner takes another important step in reaching the playoffs in a season where 8-8 may be the record of a wild card team in both conferences.
Philadelphia fans are basking in the limelight of the Phillies as they attempt to win their third straight National League pennant. In the backdrop there is certainly a quarterback controversy brewing and the media is fanning the flames with every opportunity. Kolb will start this week and Vick will be dressed and is assigned as the backup quarterback for the game.
Over the past few weeks the talk has been that with Vick behind center he offers the run threat as well as the strong arm. However, Kolb has been extraordinary on the run and out of the pocket. Last week he threw for 326 yards and his main target was Jeremy Macklin, who caught seven passes for 159 yards. Tennessee has allowed a high number of completions to wide receivers this season and that falls into the strength of the Eagles passing game.
The Eagles have two very good quarterbacks and Tennessee hopes to have just one healthy for this game. Vince Young was injured last week and Kerry Collins took over in a Monday Night football rout of Jacksonville. Normally having to prepare for two different styles of quarterbacks can be taxing on a defense in the week of preparation.
The Eagles defense is one that is extremely versatile and can adjust on the fly during games. So, they will be prepared for either quarterback and his respective style. If the immobile Kerry Collins gets the call you can bet that the Eagles defense will bring zone blitz pressure. If Young starts the Eagles defense will play pocket containment and disguise bracket and cover-2 assignments in the secondary.
A significant loss for the Eagles is wide receiver DeShawn Jackson, who is out with a concussion suffered in a vicious hit last week. Jeremy Macklin will be matched up against Cortland Finnegan, who has been caught in defensive lapses several times this season. The key for the Eagles to is get the ball to Macklin in underneath routes and allow his running skills to make for big plays. Short passes to Macklin will expose Finnegan’s aggressive style of coverage.
Tennessee bettors will like
Looking at the technical side there is a meaningful system that supports Tennessee in this game and has produced a 62-30 ATS mark for 67.4% winners since 2005. Play against road teams that are good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in the last game. 46% of these games played have covered by seven or more points.
Philadelphia Bettors will like
Philadelphia is backed by a system that has produced a 39-15 ATS mark for 72% winners since 2005. Play on road dogs or pick after having won three out of their last four games facing an opponent after having won four or five out of their last six games. 46% of these games covered the spread by seven or more points.
The ‘OVER” may the best opportunity
The play that you make like best is backed by this ‘over’ playing system that has produced a record of 30-8 for 79% winners since 1983. Play over with road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points and is a dominant team out gaining their opponents by 1.25 or more yards per play and after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
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