Ryan’s 15* NBA Upset Alert Titan: Ryan is coming off a huge winner Sunday and fortunate one too as the lakers erased an 18-point 4th quarter deficit and used two overtimes to get a big win over the Thunder. Today’s dog is more significant, but is one Ryan ‘s research will show can win the game SU. Just $25.00
Game: Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz Apr 24 2012 10:35PM
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: 15* graded play on Phoenix plus 4 ˝ points and a 5* play OVER the posted total of 203 points. The simulator shows a high probability that Phoenix will lose this game by four or fewer points and that more than 205 points will be scored in this game. Logic dictates that if Phoenix is to win this game it will be done with a high paced style of game. If Utha closes out the deal and earns the playoff berth, then it is reasonable to expect a more grinding and half-court oriented game. Of course, utilizing logic on a daily basis can be a sure fire recipe to financial loss so let’s delve into the facts and situations for these two plays. The simulator shows many projections that have served Phoenix well in past games when measured against the spread. They are projected to have between 23 and 27 free throw attempts. In past games they are a resounding 9-1 ATS making 7.9 units per one unit wagered when they attempt 23 to 28 free throws in a game this season. Supporting the graded play on the Phoenix Suns is a system that has produced a record of 70-37 ATS for 65.4% winners since 1996. Play on road dogs in a game involving two good offensive teams scoring between 98 and 102 points per game and after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game. Of the 107 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 64 of them or 40%, have covered the spread by seven or more points. Supporting the OVER play is a system that has produced a 27-7 OVER record for 79.4% winners since 2006. Play OVER with home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after two consecutive covers as a favorite and is a well rested team playing four or less games in 10 days. Of the 34 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 20 of them or 59%, went OVER the posted total by seven or more points. Phoenix is a solid 22-11 ATS making 9.9 units per one unit wagered versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last two seasons; 32-16 ATS making 14.4 units when facing struggling defensive teams allowing 99 or more points per game with the game taking place in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. Utah is a weak 3-14 ATS losing 12.4 units per one unit wagered in home games when facing good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game with the game taking place in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Even the posted total works against Utah noting that they are just 1-10 ATS losing 10.0 units per one unit wagered in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last two seasons. Supporting a high scoring game, Utah is a solid 16-5 OVER making 10.5 units in home games when playing against a marginal winning team posting a win percentage of between 51% to 60% spanning the last three seasons. Take Phoenix +5-110 and consider working a +5 ˝ order and play OVER 203 -110 points.