Hollywood Sports' OVER/UNDER SABERMETRICS SPECIAL: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports was a PERFECT 2-0 in MLB yesterday to fuel his SCORCHING HOT 26-7 (79%) MLB run! Frank also enjoys a SIZZLING 41-21 (66%) MLB Totals winning clip & now his DEEPER SABERMETRICS complement compelling team trends that REVEAL a COMMANDING 45-12 combined angle. CA$H IT IN!
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 24 2012 9:40PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: At 9:40 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks while listing both starting pitchers Vance Worley and Josh Collmenter. Arizona (9-8) won Game One of this series by a 9-5 score yesterday. The Diamondbacks have seen the Over go 7-1-1 in their last 9 games against an opponent that allowed at least five runs in their last game. Arizona has also seen the Over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 home games as an underdog. Now they send out Collmenter who may be experiencing with the worst start out of any starting pitcher so far this season after his 0-1 record along with a 10.22 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. We are not surprised at all about the right-hander's performance this season as he was one of our highest contenders for regression this year after his 10-10 record along with a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last season. The deeper sabermetrics spelled trouble for Collmenter. First, he was very fortunate with ground balls last season give his opponent's Batting Average for the ground balls he allowed Into Play (GB BABIP*) of .209 which was much lower than the Diamondbacks' defensive GB BABIP of .237. Additionally, Collmenter did find himself vulnerable to being tagged by opposing batters given his opponent's Batting Average for the line drives he allowed Into Play (LD BABIP**) of .750 as compared to the defensive LD BABIP of .722. Now Collmenter finds himself one more bad start from losing his spot in Arizona's rotation. The Over is 3-0-1 in Arizona's last 4 games as an underdog with Collmenter on the mound. The Over is also 3-1-1 in the Diamondback's last 5 home games with Collmenter making the start. These are all bad signs when facing a Philly team that has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against a right-handed starting pitcher.
Philadelphia (7-10) has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last game. The Phillies have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 9-10.5 range. They send out Vance Worley who is 1-1 with a nice 2.37 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. Last year, the right-hander was 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and .237 opponent's batting average. But Worley compiled these numbers based in part on an opponent's GB BABIP of .204 which was much lower than the Phillies' defensive GB BABIP of .236. So we are expecting regression for Worley this season. He was also much better at home last year given his 2.34 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and .201 opponent's batting average as compared to his 3.84 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and .279 opponent's batting average when on the road. Not surprisingly, Philly has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with Worley pitching as the favorite. Philadelphia has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Worley on the mound after a game where they allowed at least five runs. Together, these team trends produce our specific 45-12-5 combined angle for this situation. 20* MLB Over/Under Sabermetrics Special with Over the Total in the game between the the Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks while listing both starting pitchers Vance Worley and Josh Collmenter. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
* GB BABIP: (Opponent) Batting Average for (ground) Balls put Into Play -- The assumption behind the application of this sabermetric is that while pitchers control their strikeouts, walks and HRs allowed, it is defense and luck (and, we argue that it is the skill of the batter when it comes to producing their line-drives) that control what happens to the balls that hitters put into play. We look specifically at ground-ball BABIPs because defense and luck play the predominant role in which balls get through the infield. By comparing a pitcher's specific GB BABIP to his team's overall GB BABIP, we seek to neutralize the quality of the defense to identify (luck) discrepancies that deviate from the expected norm. This luck dynamic helps us to predict future pitching performances. Over the long run, pitchers with low GB BABIPs are expected to have this number rise while pitchers with high GB BABIPs should see this number lower.
** LD BABIP: (Opponent) Batting Average for (line drive) Balls put Into Play -- We look to this metric since line drives are typically the result of the batter "winning" the battle between hitter and pitcher and getting their desired contact with the baseball. Batters can more likely "place" these line drives into open spaces for base hits. This is the opposite argument that we make with ground balls (GB BABIP). We make this distinction because (a) batters are not hoping to make ground ball contact so they are not "placing" these batted balls, and (b) getting ground balls through the infield are more dependent on the infield's defensive positioning. We compare a pitcher's opponent LD BABIP to his team's defensive LD BABIP to neutralize the varying qualities of team-to-team defense. Pitchers with higher LD BABIPs than their team's overall defensive LD BABIP are worrisome while pitchers with lower LD BABIPs than their team's overall defensive LD BABIP have relatively upside since they are less likely to be losing this "hitter v. pitcher" battle.