Hollywood Sports' 25* DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports SWEPT THE BOARD by going a PERFECT 4-0 on Monday including CA$HING BOTH his MLB plays to fuel his SCORCHING HOT 26-7 (79%) MLB run! Now Frank spots a SUPER SITUATION supported by an EXPLOSIVE 52-10 combined angle for this 25* Divisional Game of the Month. DON'T MISS IT!
Game: Miami Marlins at New York Mets Apr 24 2012 7:10PM
Prediction: New York Mets
Grade: Winner (115)
Reason: At 7:10 PM EST on Tuesday, we will be playing the money line on the New York Mets versus the Miami Marlins while listing both starting pitchers Johan Santana and Josh Johnson. New York (8-8) lost both ends of their double-header yesterday with the Giants which means they have lost five of their last six contests. However, we look for them to rebound here as they have won 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new series. The Mets send out Santana here -- and they have also won 8 of their last 10 games when their long-term ace was looking to stop a team losing streak. For the season, the left-hander is 0-2 with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP this season. Santana's first two starts of the season have been good which gave the Mets confidence to extend his pitch count to 115 pitches after returning from left shoulder surgery last season. But Santana was rocked by the Braves for six runs (four earned) in just 1 1/3 innings of work. Santana says he felt fine in that contest and he just had a bad outing. We look for Santana to rebound here as he looks to redeem himself from that subpar effort as well as stop the Mets' losing streak. Given the Sunday rainout, Santana has not pitched since that April 17th game with Atlanta so he will enter this game plenty rested. He should be at full strength for this one -- and the Mets have won 5 straight games with Santana pitching with at least six days of rest in-between starts. The Mets have also won 11 of their last 16 home games with Santana pitching against a team with a losing record. Furthermore, the Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record overall. Additionally, because they both games in yesterday's double-header by 7-2 and 6-1 scores, the Mets are supported by a bounce-back angle that has been 71% effective since 1997. Teams that score 3.8 or fewer runs per game (New York: 3.5 runs per game) who have lost their last two games by at least four runs and now face a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better (Miami bullpen: 2.63 ERA) have then rebounded to win 29 of the last 41 situations where these conditions applied.
Miami (7-8) has lost two games in a row themselves after their 3-2 loss at Washington back on Saturday. The Marlins were rained out on Sunday so they enter this game with two days off. They send out Josh Johnson who is still struggling to get back to his old form after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury last year. So far this season, the right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP. One of the biggest problems has been that his strikeouts are down. After fanning 242 batters over the last previous two seasons in 244 innings of work, Johnson has Ked only 8 batters this season in 16 2/3 innings of work. Additionally, the Marlins have lost 5 straight road gams with Johnson on the hill as a favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. Furthermore, Miami has lost 4 straight games on the road. They also have lost 7 straight games where the Total was listed at 6.5 or less in expected pitching duels. And the Marlins have lost 4 of their last 5 games played in New York at Citi Field. Together, these team trends produce our specific 52-10 combined winning angle for this situation. Lastly, because the Marlins have only scored two runs in their last two games combined, they fall into a historical "play-against" angle that has been 66% effective since 1997. Favorites in the -100 to -150 price range who average at least 0.9 errors per game (Miami: 0.93 errors per game) who have failed to score more than two runs in each of their last two games have then lost 42 of the last 64 situations where these conditions applied. 25* MLB National East Game of the Month with the money line on the New York Mets versus the Miami Marlins while listing both starting pitchers Johan Santana and Josh Johnson. Best of luck for us -- Frank.