Ryan’s 30* Elite-8 Total Play of the Year; 80% sea: Ryan had a rare loss in Tournament action losing a 25* Titan on the Gators. He is, however, 4-1 ATS for the season with his 30* NCAA Hoops Games of the Year. This one, as always, comes with complete research showing you why the line is off big time. Moreover, a system where 74% of the winners covered by a minimum of seven points!
Game: Baylor at Kentucky Mar 25 2012 2:20PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: 30* graded play ‘UNDER’ Baylor/Kentucky in the Elite Round of the Men’s Basketball Championship. The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 145 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 85-44 for 66% winners since 1997. Play ‘Under’ in a neutral court game against the total involving two very good teams that have outscoring opponents by 8 or more points per game and after a combined score of 155 points or more two straight games. Kentucky went wild scoring 102 points in their win over Indiana in the Sweet 16, but the Wildcats will take on a more defensive posture in this game. Of the plays made based on the criteria of this system, 62 of them or 73% of the winning plays, went ‘under’ the posted total by seven or more points. Kentucky will look to take shot attempts close to the rim given their size and length advantages. The sim shows that Kentucky will attempt a minimum of four more free throws than Baylor as a result of this ball movement and power game. In past games, Kentucky is 8-2 UNDER (+5.8 Units) when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game this season. Moreover, the sim shows that Kentucky will do a great job on the offensive glass and will have between nine and 13 offensive boards. They will look to rest these second chance scoring opportunities and this too will take time off the clock. In past games, Kentucky is 10-2 ‘UNDER’ (+7.8 Units) in road games when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game this season. Kentucky is a solid 22-9 UNDER (+12.1 Units) versus good ball handling teams committing <=14 turnovers per game after 15 or more games over the last two seasons; 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) in road games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 3 seasons. It all ads up to a far slower paced game and shooting that is below both teams’ season averages given the matchups. I like the ‘UNDER’ alot and it is graded as a 30* Game of the Year Titan