Burns' *10* AFTERNOON BEST BET ~ BAYLOR/KENTUCKY!: Ben Burns got Saturday afternoon started by nailing the "over" in the Louisville/Syracuse game, remaining PERFECT in games involving those teams. He's also 2-1 in NCAA Tourney games involving Baylor or Kentucky, the two teams squaring off here. Ben began last Sunday by nailing his BEST BET (St. Louis vs MSU) & he DOES IT AGAIN here. Don't miss out!
Game: Baylor at Kentucky Mar 25 2012 2:20PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: I'm playing on Baylor and Kentucky to finish UNDER the total. These teams, particularly Kentucky, are both off very high-scoring games last round. Those results have worked in our favor here, as this line was very high when it came up and then quickly got bet up even higher. I feel that's providing us with excellent value the other way. True, Kentucky won its last game in a "shootout." Keep in mind that this is a dominant defensive team though. For the season, the Wildcats allowed just 60.4 points per game. Opposing teams shot a mere 37.5% from the field against them. Those numbers were every bit as good away from Kentucky too. When playing away from home, the Wildcats allow 60.8 points and opposing teams shoot 38%. Kentucky road and neutral court games average 134.5 points. Overall, Wildcat games average 138.2. Baylor games average 139.7. Yet, today's O/U line is MUCH higher than either team's average. Again, I feel that's providing excellent value. As far as allowing all those points against Indiana, note that the UNDER is 23-7 the last 30 times (games with a total) that Kentucky had allowed 80 or more points in its previous game. Baylor did see its most recent game finish above the total. However, that was thanks to the teams scoring 35 points in the final 3:38 of that game and it still only finished above the total by three points. (I know, as I lost with the 'under' in that one.) Really, despite the high final score (75-70) the Bears played well defensively in that game. They held the Musketeers to 42.9% from the field and 20% from 3-point range. They limited the Musketeers to only 29 first half points. Even with Friday's result, note that the Wildcats have still seen the UNDER go a lucrative 16-9 their last 25 against teams with a winning record. With such a high O/U line, note that the UNDER is also 5-1 the last six times that the Wildcats played a neutral court game where the O/U line ranged from 145 to 149.5. I expect those stats to improve this afternoon. *10