SCOTT SPREITZER'S NBA ODDSMAKER BEATDOWN! 19-6 Run: Scott Spreitzer posts just his second ODDSMAKER BEATDOWN release in March, having won his first. Scott had to settle for an NBA split (1-1) yesterday, but he's 16-7, 70% in March NBA and 19-6, 76% with his last 25 releases overall! Grab the pro hardwood ODDSMAKER BEATDOWN right here, then TAKE the CA$H!
Game: Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder Mar 25 2012 8:05PM
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: I'm backing Oklahoma City on Sunday night. My power rankings on this floor say this line should be higher. But when the books opened this one low, I jumped on the home team and made OKC a play. While Miami's bench is better than last year's (not saying a lot) it's still not up to snuff, as far as I'm concerned. The Miami role players, which includes starters Mario Chalmers and Joel Anthony, leave a lot to be desired and we have seen the Heat struggle at times because of it. They lost to the Chicago Bulls who were playing without Derrick Rose on March 14. James & Wade combined for 71 points and Chris Bosh scored 12 points. But the rest of the team scored just 19 points on 5-of-19 shooting. The "role" players scored just 28 the previous night in a loss to Philadelphia, making just 12-of-35 shots. And in two recent games against Orlando (1-1 SU) the Heat role players scored a combined 51 points on 20-of-57 shooting. That's a combined 37-of-111, 33% shooting in Miami's four most recent step-up games. It's no wonder they went 1-3 SU. I don't see anything that says they won't struggle again, in another step-up game in OKC, despite the addition of Ronny Turiaf. This is a huge statement game for the Thunder. And while I believe they're going to have a tough time holding off the hard-charging Spurs in the Western Conference standings (check out the remaining schedules) I do believe they'll get over the top against Miami. OKC is off a 149-140 2-OT win over Minnesota on Friday. This puts them in a league-wide 23-5 ATS spot. Teams that allowed at least 120 points in their last game are on a 23-5 ATS run if they average at least 102 ppg on the season and their opponent averages between 98 & 102 ppg. Miami has covered just one of their last five on the road against teams with a home win percentage above .600. And OKC is on a 9-3 ATS run when laying less than five points. I'm backing Oklahoma City on Sunday night. Thanks! GL! Scott.