Hollywood Sports 25* NCAA TOURNY TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports has DELIVERED 6 of his last 7 (86%) highest-rated 25* CBB releases after Louisville's win on Saturday. Frank OWNS March Madness his SENSATIONAL 36-18 (67%) clip with his highest-rated 25* Big Dance releases & now he UNLEASHES his 2012 NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. DO NOT MISS IT!
Game: Kansas at North Carolina Mar 25 2012 5:05PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: At 5:05 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament. The loss of Kendall Marshall hurts the North Carolina offense in two ways. First, anytime a team loses their point guard, the chemistry on the offensive end of the court is hurt. Secondly, freshman point guard Stillman White is a weak link on the offensive end of the court. His stat line of six assists to zero turnovers is deceptive because he was not much a playmaker. White is not a threat to score -- he only took four shots last night. He was tentative with the basketball and Williams had more of the other four players on the court control the basketball -- which helps explain their 24 turnovers against the Bobcats. White's presence on the court did not hour the Tar Heels' defensive effort, however, as they held Ohio to just a 32.4% shooting percentage. North Carolina has now played 4 of their last 5 NCAA Tournament games Under the Total. And in their last 21 games as an underdog of under 7 points, the Tar Heels have seen the Under go 15-5-1.
Kansas (30-6) comes off their 60-57 win over NC State as an 8.5-point favorite -- and the Jayhawks have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. Kansas did it on the defense end by holding the Wolfpack to just a 28% shooting percentage with their 2-pointers and a 29% shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Jayhawks have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total played on a neutral court. Kansas has also played 14 of their last 17 NCAA Tournament games Under the Total as a favorite in the Bill Self era. And in their last 27 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Under is 19-7-1 for Kansas. Together, these team trends produce our specific 75-23-2 combined angle for this situation. Lastly, the Under is supported by a historical situation that has been 66% effective since 1997. After fifteen games into the season with the Total set in the 140-149.5 range, when both teams shoot 32-36.5% from behind the arc (Kansas: 34.6%; North Carolina: 34.1%) and one of the teams comes off a game where they held their opponent to a shooting percentage of 33% or less, this game then finished Under the Total in 97 of the last 147 situations where these conditions applied. Without the services of Marshall on the floor, we look for Williams to slow the pace of this game down to compensate for their freshman point guard. We look for Self to oblige and let this game become a slow grind. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks and the North Carolina Tar Heels. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
Kendall Marshall Update: CBS just reported that Marshall took part in limited workouts on Saturday and he will be a game-time decision for this game. This play remains unchanged even if he does play because (a) he will not be nearly 100% with one of his dribbling hands being fractured and (b) White will still need to play too many minutes. Frankly, this would probably still be a play even if Marshall was never injured.