Hollywood Sports' BAYLOR-KENTUCKY ATS SPECIAL: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports takes his RED HOT 35-20 (64%) CBB run into Sunday's Elite 8 where he has a SENSATIONAL 6-2 (86%) Elite 8 mark since 2010! Frank OWNS a DOMINANT 51-29 (64%) NCAA Tourney winning clip over the last three years! Now Frank has the Baylor-Kentucky ATS winner -- CA$H IT IN!
Game: Baylor at Kentucky Mar 25 2012 2:20PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: At 2:20 PM EST on Sunday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points versus the Baylor Bears in the Quarterfinals of the NCAA Tournament. Indiana shot 52.2% from the field and played about as well as they can on Friday -- yet Kentucky was just too much for them in the Wildcats' 102-90 win in a game they controlled pretty much for the entire 40 minutes. The Wildcats got to the line 36 times and converted 34 of these charity stripe shots for a sizzling 94.6% free throw percentage. Kentucky also only turned the ball over six times while outrebounding the Hoosiers by a 39-31 margin. The Wildcats covered the 10-point spread -- and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. Kentucky has also covered 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 100 points in their last game. And John Calipari's teams have now covered 4 of their last 5 games in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range.
Baylor (30-7) enters the Elite 8 after their 75-70 win versus Xavier. The Bears converted 24 of their 42 shots inside the arc (57%) which was far better than their 42% shooting percentage with their 2-point shots in their first two games in the tournament. We expect some regression -- especially when facing the tough Kentucky defense. The Wildcats' opponent's effective field goal percentage* of 42.2% is best in the nation. Baylor also put the Musketeers on the free throw line 24 times -- a whopping 43% free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The Wildcats will bury them if the Bears foul as much against them as they did Xavier. While there is no question that Baylor has great talent, too often their play on the court has not met the expectations of their accumulation of talent. Too often Baylor suffers lapses on the defensive end of the court. They turn the ball over at a 20.4% rate which is 180th in the nation. And they allow their opponents to rebound 32.3% of their missed shots (182nd in the nation). Ultimately, we consider the fact that the Bears were a combined 1-5 in their five games against Kansas and Missouri this season -- their two toughest competitors this season (before now). Not only did Baylor fail to win their share of games against these two teams, but four of their five losses were by a minimum of 14 points. Lastly, the Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games following a straight-up victory. Together, these team trends produce our specific 25-7 ATS combined winning angle for this situation. 20* CBB Baylor-Kentucky ATS Special with the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points versus the Baylor Bears. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
*eFG: Effective Field Goal percentage takes a team's field goal percentage and then assigns 50% more value to successfully converted 3-point shots since those baskets are 50% more valuable than made 2-pointers. This metric is preferred since it takes into account the frequency of made 3-pointers.