Hollywood Sports 25* BOUNCE-BACK GAME OF THE MONTH: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports lost his 25* Okla City play last night but maintains a SIZZLING 19 of 29 (66%) NBA 25* run! Frank owns a CONSISTENTLY RELIABLE 74-43 (63%) clip with his highest-rated 25* plays overall so he expects to rebound with an opportune situation in this 25* Bounce-Back Game of the Month. DON'T MISS IT!
Game: Detroit Pistons at Denver Nuggets Mar 21 2012 9:05PM
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons. Denver (25-21) look to rebound from a disappointing effort at home where they lost to Dallas by a 112-95 score as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. The Nuggets have been very reliable in situations like this as they have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss at home. Denver has also covered 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Nuggets take care of business against the weaker teams in the league as they own a 20-7-1 ATS mark in their last 28 games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Furthermore, the Pistons arrival to town may be just what the doctor ordered for George Karl's team since Denver has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams from the Central Division. Additionally, the Nuggets are supported by a historical bounce-back angle that has been 81% effective since 1996. Home teams coming off a loss by at least 15-points as a favorite now facing a team coming off a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog have then rebounded to cover the spread in 25 of the last 31 situations where these conditions applied.
Detroit (16-29) has now lost two straight -- as well as three of their last four games -- after their 87-83 loss in overtime in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. The Pistons' 4th quarter woes on the road continued in this one as they managed only 9 points in that period to blow their lead and see the game go to overtime. That is not a good sign when facing what should be a very motivated Nuggets team. Detroit has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 road games as an underdog of 5-10.5 point range. Denver is 14-12 at home this season -- and the Pistons have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Together, these team trends produce our specific 70-21-1 ATS combined winning angle for this situation. Lastly, because this will be Detroit's just second game in the last five days, this helps place them into an empirical "play-against" angle that has been 68% effective over the last five seasons. In games played in March, underdogs in the 3.5-9.5 point range who are playing their second game in the last five days have then failed to cover the point spread in 68 of the last 102 situations where these conditions applied. 25* NBA Bounce-Back Game of the Month with the Denver Nuggets minus the points versus the Detroit Pistons. Best of luck for us -- Frank.