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Game: Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks Mar 21 2012 9:35PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and LA to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams enter tonight's game on "over" streaks. That's helped by providing us with a generously high O/U line. In fact, its considerably higher than the O/U line was for either of this season's previous meetings, which had lines of 182.5 and 180.5. I feel tonight's higher line is providing us with excellent value. Speaking of those earlier meetings, they finished with scores of 187 and 143, an average of just 165. That was only good enough for a 1-1 totals mark but both those scores would have fallen beneath tonight's bigger number. The Lakers have seen the UNDER go 3-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 185 to 189.5 range. They've also seen the UNDER go 8-6 when playing the second of back-to-back games. Additionally, we find the UNDER at 9-5-1 the last 15 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. The champs are really starting to roll. A 112-95 win at Denver on Monday was their fourth straight. While that one finished above the number, the UNDER is still 7-3 the last 10 times that they were on a winning streak of at least three games. The Mavericks also typically follow up a blowout win with a low-scoring game. The UNDER is 34-26 (57%) the last 60 times that they were off a double-digit win, including 8-4 (67%) their last 12 in that situation. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. *10