Burns' **10** WEDNESDAY BEST BET ~ BIG GAME ALERT!: Big Game Expert Ben Burns has isolated a GENUINE BEAUTY on Wednesday's college card. Its his only college play today & ITS A BIG ONE. In fact, its received his VERY HIGHEST RATING. Enough said!
Game: Nevada at Stanford Mar 21 2012 9:00PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: I'm playing on Nevada and Stanford to finish UNDER the total. This O/U number was quite high to begin with and it climbed after it came out. While I'm aware that both teams saw their last game finish above the total, I feel that's providing us with excellent value on the UNDER. Keep in mind that both these teams were among the best defensive teams in their respective conferences. Neither ranks in the top 100 in terms of 3-point shooting. The UNDER is 9-7 the last 16 times that the Wolfpack were listed as underdogs including 3-2 in 2012. The last time that Nevada was getting points was exactly one week ago, at Oral Roberts. That game had an O/U line of 138.5 but finished with only 127. The Wolfpack have also seen the UNDER go 2-1 when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Even with the game vs. Bucknell finishing above the number, Nevada has still seen the UNDER go 4-2 in tournament games this season. While the Cardinal are off a high-scoring (OT) game on Monday, note that the UNDER is 6-3-1 the last 10 times that they played with one or less day's rest in between games. Also, note the UNDER is 15-7 the last 22 times that they were a home favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. *10