Hollywood Sports' 25* NIT QTRS TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports passed in CBB yesterday after DELIVERING his big 25* Butler/Penn Under in the NIT on Monday to fuel his SIZZLING 28-15 (65%) CBB run! Frank spots ANOTHER SUPER O/U SITUATION in the NIT supported by a STRONG 44-11 combined angle for this #1 Total in the NIT Quarters. CA$H IT IN!
Game: Nevada at Stanford Mar 21 2012 9:00PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: At 9:00 PM EST on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the Stanford Cardinal in the Quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. Nevada (28-6) shot 50.0% from the field en route to their 75-67 win over Bucknell in the Sweet 16 of the NIT as a 3-point favorite. The Wolf Pack have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total following a straight-up victory. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Nevada returned all five starters from last season's team so this crew is very experienced and will not be intimidated with playing on the road. The Wolf Pack average 73.8 PPG on 45.7% shooting and a nice 38.1% clip from behind the arc. Stanford was 16-3 on the road this season -- but the Wolf Pack have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on their home court. Nevada has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.
Stanford (23-11) comes off a wild 92-88 overtime victory versus Illinois State on Monday in a game where they shot 51.5% from the field fueled by a red hot 12 of 20 (60%) from behind the arc. But the concern for the Cardinal is that they allowed the Redbirds to shoot 15 of 30 (50%) from behind the arc themselves. We look for another wild one in this one since Stanford has played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total following a straight-up victory. The Cardinal has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Stanford has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total when installed as the favorite. And the Cardinal have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against against teams outside the Pac-12. Together, these team trends produce our specific 44-11 combined angle for this situation. Lastly, the Over is supported by an empirical angle that has been 63% effective over the last five seasons. After fifteen games into the season with the Total set in the 130-139.5 point range between two teams that shoot at least 36.5% from behind the arc, when one of the teams turns the ball no more than 14.5 times per game (Nevada: 14 turnovers per game) now facing a team that forces 14.5-17.5 turnovers per game (Stanford defense: 15 turnovers per game), these games have then gone Over the Total in 104 of the last 164 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack and the Stanford Cardinal. Best of luck for us -- Frank.