Burns' *10 BEST BET ~ 47-29 L2 WKS, 5-1 L6 CBB 10s: Big Game Expert Ben Burns went an AWESOME 5-1/83% w/ his *10* NCAA Tournament plays over the weekend. The lone *10 loser was a tough beat on the MSU/STL total. Unfortunately, off a big Saturday, Ben stumbled overall on Sunday. Still a FANTASTIC 47-29 the L14 days, Burns HITS BACK HARD on Monday w/ another MASSIVE *10 WINNER. Be there!
Game: Illinois State at Stanford Mar 19 2012 11:30PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: I'm playing on Stanford and Illinois State to finish UNDER the total. Illinois State is off back-to-back high-scoring games, most recently a 96-93 thriller at Ole Miss. While 21 of those point were scored in OT, it was still a shootout. Meanwhile, Stanford is off a few consecutive "overs" of its own. Those recent results have helped to create a generously high O/U number. I believe it will prove to be too high. Before its recent "over" streak, the Cardinal had seen eight of 10 games finish below the total. They're allowing a mere 59.4 points per game at home and 63 points per game overall. Opposing teams shoot only 40.7% here. Given those stats, don't expect Illinois State to come anywhere close to what it did last time. That 3/14 effort featured the Redbirds' best three-point shooting game (17 of 23 for 73.9%!) in school history. Note that the Redbirds' only other trip to California this season resulted in a 55-47 loss, at Fresno State. Also, note that the only other time that the Redbirds topped the 80-point mark this season, they followed it up by scoring a mere 54 (63-54 loss) vs. UNC-Wilmington. While the recent 3-point performance will receive all the attention, the Redbirds are also capable of playing defense. They held 15 opponents this season to under 40 percent shooting this season, including five teams which shot less than 30 percent. In the three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games, Illinois State opponents shot a combined 36.7 percent from the field. While both teams have now seen (slightly) more games finish above the total overall, that hasn't been the case for either team when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. In fact, the UNDER is a combined 17-10-1 (9-3 and 8-6-1) when these teams played when the O/U line was in the 130s. The UNDER is also 4-2 the last six times that the Cardinal were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and 3-1 the last four times that the played with five or six day's rest in between games. I expect those stats to improve here. *10