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Game: Middle Tennessee at Tennessee Mar 19 2012 7:00PM
Prediction: Middle Tennessee
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: Play On: Middle Tennessee State (Game 613) Note: When Middle Tennessee State travels to Knoxville to take on big-brother Tennessee Monday night the Blue Raiders will take the court looking to avenge a nasty 30-point loss suffered against the Vols here last year. That sets the table for tonight's play as MTSU is 10-2 ATS in games outside the Sun Belt this season, including 6-0 ATS as a dog. In addition, the 29-win Raiders are 15-3 ATS under head coach Kermit Davis as a dog when playing off a double-digit ATS win, including 11-1 ATS versus sub .740 opposition. The clincher, though, comes from our powerful database as it reminds us that NIT 2nd round home teams off a home win of more than 10 points that failed to cover the spread by more than 6 points are 0-12 ATS since 1991 if they won fewer than 20 games last season and their opponent win 20 or fewer games last year. The database also notes that revenge seeking teams in this tourney with a better record than their opponent are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS when playing off a win of 6 or more points. With the Vols in off their 20th win of the season, look for Tennessee to slide to 0-7 SU this season in games versus greater than .800 opponents. We recommend a 3-unit play on Middle Tennessee State. Thank you and good luck as always.