Hollywood Sports' BOUNCE-BACK BEATDOWN: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sports is 2-0 in CBB today - including winning his big play on NC State - to fuel his RED HOT 24 of 33 (73%) CBB run! Frank OWNS March Madness with a SENSATIONAL 44-20 (69%) Big Dance run & he is adding a late play with a team in BOUNCE-BACK mode versus an opponent DUE FOR A LETDOWN! CA$H IT IN!
Game: South Florida at Temple Mar 16 2012 9:50PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: At 9:50 PM EST on Friday, we will be playing the Temple Owls minus the points versus the South Florida Bulls in the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament. We have been going against South Florida (20-13) plenty of times over the last few weeks because they cannot score baskets. After taking California on Wednesday and losing that play with the Bulls' 65-54 victory, I did not want to just keep betting against a team that I think is overvalued. But avoiding them for just that same reason is also a mistake albeit it a safer one. But here is the deal: South Florida shot 57.1% from the field in this game which -- for them -- is the outlier of outliers. We want to go against teams that come off what is an abnormally good performance for them. The Bulls shoot just 43.9% from the field -- and this number drops to only 40.1% along with a mere 52.8 PPP scoring average when on the road. Expect numbers like this tonight as South Florida returns to earth. They have no players who average double-digits in scoring. Their 0.97 PPP scoring rate was second to last in the Big East. We consider South Florida overvalued. Despite finished tied for 4th in the Big East with their 12-6 record, their net Efficiency Margin of +0.02 Points-Per-Possession (Offensive PPP: 0.97; Defensive PPP: 0.95) against conference opponents drops them to 8th best in the Big East. What is also troubling is that the Bulls were last in the Big East by turning the ball over in 23.8% of their conference possessions. Furthermore, most of South Florida's success this year was at home where they enjoyed a 13-2 record. On the road, the Bulls were just 5-8. South Florida has also failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral court.
Coach Stan Heath's team compensates for this with by slowing the pace to a crawl and playing tough defense. Temple (24-7) should have enough scorers to seize a lead -- and then ensure the point spread cover late in the game at the free throw line. Led by the backcourt dynamic duo of Juan Fernandez and Ramone Moore, this is probably the best offense that head coach Fran Dunphy has seen in his time at Temple. And this team plays significantly better with senior Michael Eric on the floor who missed thirteen games this season but who is back and healthy now. Furthermore, the Owls look to redeem themselves from their 77-71 loss to UMass in the Atlantic 10 tournament as a 7.5-point favorite. The Minutemen were bolstered by being red hot behind the arc by hitting 9 of their 16 three-pointers. Temple has rebounded to cover the spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a straight-up loss. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Temple has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games against Big East opponents. Together, these team trends produce our specific 28-9 ATS combined winning angle for this situation. The Owls have too many playmakers for the Bulls. It may look ugly at times, but as long as South Florida shoots the way they normally do, Temple will grind their way to a point spread cover. 20* CBB Bounce-Back Beatdown with the Temple Owls minus the points versus the South Florida Bulls. Best of luck for us -- Frank.