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Game: Virginia at Florida Mar 16 2012 2:10PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: 20* Play on Florida. Both Virginia and Florida enter this game after losing momentum at the end of the regular season, with the Cavaliers dropping three of their last four games and the Gators losing four of their last five. The schedule was one of the biggest factors in both team's losing streaks, with both clubs playing a top-heavy portion of their conference schedule during those stretches, however we like how Florida played in their last two games (won vs. Alabama, lost by only three points against Kentucky), and we think they match up very well against Virginia here this afternoon.
Virginia prefers to play a slow-paced, defensive style of basketball, but that type of style hurts them against good offensive teams. That was clearly evident in their losses against both Florida State and NC State as the Cavs allowed 50%+ shooting to both teams and couldn't muster enough offense to keep up.
Florida seemed to regain confidence - despite losing outright - in their last game against Kentucky and they gave the Wildcats all they could handle in a 74-71 defeat (covered easily as a 9-point underdog). And more importantly the Gators regained their shooting touch, making 48% of their shots and ending a short shooting slump that saw them shoot under 40% in three of their previous four games. Florida's offense, especially from beyond the three-point arc, is a tough matchup for Virginia to keep up score-for-score here, and we don't like the way the Cavaliers have played against quality opponents this year. We don't think Virginia will hold Florida to under 60 points here today, and the Cavs are just 1-4 straight up when allowing at least 60 points. Not enough offensive firepower for Virginia here as Florida pulls away in the second half to an easy win! 20* Play on Florida.