Hollywood Sports' 25* CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH: Frank Sawyer lost his big 25* on Clemson this afternoon but his Hollywood Sports remains on a RED HOT 10 of 12 (83%) 25* All-Sports run. Frank enjoys a SENSATIONAL 17 of 24 (71%) mark with his highest-rated 25* CBB plays & this 25* Conference Game of the Month is backed by a DYNAMITE 57-12 combined angle. GET ON BOARD!
Game: Princeton at Dartmouth Feb 25 2012 7:00PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: At 7:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Princeton Tigers minus the points versus the Dartmouth Mean Green. Princeton (15-11) looks to rebound from their 67-64 loss at Harvard last night as 10.5-point underdog that snapped their four-game winning streak. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games. Princeton is also reliable in the traditional Saturday back-to-back game typical of the Ivy League schedule as they have covered 4 of their last 5 Saturday games. The Tigers have also covered 4 straight games against Ivy League opponents. Princeton is 4th in the Ivy with a 6-4 record. Their net Points-Per-Possession conference efficiency margin of +0.06 (Offensive PPP: 1.07; Defensive PPP: 1.01) is 3rd best in the Ivy League so this team may be a bit underrated. The Tigers have covered 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. And while Dartmouth is 4-8 at home this season, Princeton has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Furthermore, the Tigers are supported by a situational angle that has been 67% effective over the last five seasons. Favorites coming off a loss on the road by three points or less playing their second game over the last three days have then rebounded to cover the point spread in 77 of the last 115 situations where these conditions applied.
Dartmouth (5-22) covered the 6.5-point spread last night against Pennsylvania in their 57-54 loss to the Quakers. That loss dropped the Mean Green to 1-10 in the conference which is tied with Brown for the last in the Ivy League. The deeper metrics are just as discouraging as Dartmouth's net PPP conference efficiency margin of -0.12 (Offensive PPP: 0.86; Defensive PPP: 0.98) is 7th in the Ivy and far below Princeton's efficiency clip. Princeton may be 7-8 on the road this season but the Mean Green are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Dartmouth has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games as an underdog in the 7-12.5 point range. The road team has covered 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. We look for these trends to continue here as together these team trends produce our specific 57-12-1 ATS combined winning angle for this situation. Lastly, Dartmouth falls into an empirical "play-against" angle that has been 82% effective over the last five seasons. In games played in February, home underdogs or pick 'ems coming off a loss at home by three points or less have then failed to cover the point spread in 32 of the last 39 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CBB Ivy League Game of the Month with the Princeton Tigers minus the points versus the Dartmouth Mean Green. Best of luck for us -- Frank.