Hollywood Sports' 25* CONF USA GAME OF THE MONTH: Frank Sawyer DELIVERED BOTH his 25* CBB plays yesterday (Utah St & Marquette) to fuel Hollywood Sports' SENSATIONAL 17 of 23 (74%) run with his highest-rated 25* CBB plays. Now Frank UNLEASHES his 25* Conference USA Game of the Month in an afternoon situation supported by a DYNAMITE 63-11 combined angle. DON'T MISS IT!
Game: UAB at East Carolina Feb 25 2012 5:00PM
Grade: Winner (100)
Reason: At 5:00 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers plus the points versus the East Carolina Panthers. Head coach Mike Davis has his UAB team peaking at just the right time of the season as the Blazers have won five of their last six games after their 81-73 win versus Tulane last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite. UAB has now covered the points spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Conference USA opponents. The Blazers are tied for 6th in the conference with their 7-6 record. Their net Points-Per-Possession conference efficiency margin of 0.00 (Offensive PPP: 0.99; Defensive PPP: 0.99) is 7th in Conference USA. Davis has his team playing good defense -- and this helps keep UAB competitive when playing on the road. The Blazers are holding their home hosts to just a 40.7% shooting percentage when they are on the road. This helps explain UAB's decisive 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games as a small underdog of under seven points. The Blazers have also covered the point spread in each of their last 5 trips to East Carolina.
East Carolina (12-14) has now lost four games in a row after their 70-47 burial on the road at the hands of Memphis as a 14.5-point underdog. The Pirates will likely continue their slide as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games following a loss. East Carolina has also failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread defeat. The Pirates have also failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games against Conference USA opponents. East Carolina's 3-10 record in conference play places them into a three-way tie for last place in Conference USA. Their net PPP conference efficiency margin of -0.08 (Offensive PPP: 1.00; Defensive PPP: 1.08) is 10th in Conference USA and much lower than the Blazers' efficiency marks. The Pirates do return home here after three games on the road -- but East Carolina is a striking 7-24-2 ATS in their last 33 home games when favored in the 0.5-6.5 point range. Together, these team trends produce our specific 63-11-3 ATS combined winning angle for this situation. UAB will also have revenge on their mind here as they will be looking to avenge their 73-66 loss at home to East Carolina on January 28th. The Blazers are playing much better now than they were a month ago. The Pirates also were red hot in that game by shooting 59.5% from the field. UAB will likely batten down the hatches and play better defense in this rematch. They can also take heart in the fact that they were able to shoot 50% from the field themselves against the weak East Carolina defense. Lastly, East Carolina falls into a technical "play-against" angle that has been 63% effective over the last five seasons. Home teams listed in the +/- 3-point range who shoot 42.5-45% from the field (East Carolina: 43.3%) and turn the ball over no more than 14.5 times per game (East Carolina: 14 turnovers per game) now facing a team that holds their opponents to a 40-42.5% shooting percentage (UAB defense: 40.9%) and does not force more than 14.5 turnovers per game (UAB defense: 12 turnovers per game) have then failed to cover the point spread in 91 of the last 145 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CBB Conference USA Game of the Month with the Alabama-Birmingham Blazers plus the points versus the East Carolina Panthers. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
SATURDAY UPDATE: As usual, we will then come back this evening with a evening card that should be posted by the late afternoon. There will be at least one 25* play in that card in a very nice situation that you will want to check out. It will probably be a 3-play card this evening -- to be determined since I have not finished handicapping those night time games. Thanks, Frank.