Hollywood Sports' 25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR!: Frank Sawyer's Hollywood Sportsí PERFECT 2-0 CBB 25* mark on Friday continued his RED HOT 10-1 (91%) 25* All-Sports run! Frank is on an EPIC 40-17 (70%) TEAR with his 25* plays including a SENSATIONAL 17 of 23 (74%) CBB 25* clip. Now Frank's DEEPER METRICS lead to his ACC Game of the Year this afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!
Game: N.C. State at Clemson Feb 25 2012 2:30PM
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: At 2:30 PM EST on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Clemson has won three of their last four games after their 56-37 blowout win at Georgia Tech on Tuesday as a 4-point favorite. Now the Tigers return home where they are 9-5 with an average winning margin of +8.0 PPG. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as a favorite of under seven points. The Tigers are tied for 7th in the ACC with their 6-7 conference record -- but the deeper metrics suggests that they are a bit better than this record. Clemson's net Points-Per-Possession conference efficiency margin of +0.05 (Offensive PPP: 1.02; Defensive PPP: 0.97) is tied for the 5th best mark in the ACC. NC State is 4-3 on the road this season -- but Clemson takes care of business against good teams as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
NC State (18-10) has lost three games in a row after their 86-74 loss to North Carolina on Tuesday -- and we look for this slide to continue. After racing out to a 7-3 mark in the ACC, the Wolfpack have came back to earth after facing Duke, Florida State and then their in-state rival Tar Heels. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games following a loss. The Wolfpack has also failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread defeat. Tellingly, NC State has also failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. While the Wolfpack are tied for 5th in the ACC with their 7-6 record, the deeper metrics suggest they have been overachieving. NC State's net PPP conference efficiency margin of +0.03 is 7th in the ACC and below Clemson's +0.05 efficiency mark. The Wolfpack struggle against better teams as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog of under seven points. Together, these team trends produce our specific 35-9 combined winning angle for this situation. NC State committed only four turnovers against North Carolina on Tuesday in that losing effort. They will unlikely to be able to protect the basketball that well again against this Clemson team that leads the ACC by forcing turnovers in 24% of their opponent's possessions in conference play. That effort also helps to place the Wolfpack into a historical "play-against" angle that has been 66% effective since 1997. Road underdogs in the 3.5-9.5 point range who committed five or less turnovers in their last game have then failed to cover the point spread in 90 of the last 137 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: We look to have 3-5 plays this afternoon with this ACC Game of the Year as well as a 25* Conference Game of the Month. And, as usual, we will then come back this evening with a evening card that should be posted by the late afternoon. There will be at least one 25* play in that card in a very nice situation that you will want to check out. It will probably be a 3-play card this evening -- to be determined since I have not finished handicapping those night time games. Thanks, Frank.