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Game: St. Marys at San Francisco Feb 25 2012 11:00PM
Prediction: San Francisco
Grade: Loser (-110)
Reason: I'm taking the points with San Francisco on Saturday night. St. Mary's has a tendency to fade down the stretch - and they're at it again. The Gaels are on a 3-11 ATS February slide and have covered just 1 of their last 6. They had no trouble with a 6-22 Portland team last time out, but had lost 3 of 4 SU before the win over the Pilots. Stephen Holt's absence is a big deal. Holt was injured (knee) relatively early against Loyola-Marymount and SMC had no answer in the loss. The Lions took advantage and won 75-60 in Moraga. SMC had no defensive answer for Murray State's top guards last weekend. Holt, the team's best defender wasn't on the floor again, and Murray's 3 starting guards scored a combined 40 points on 16 of 24 shooting (8-13 3's) to go along with 7 assists. Holt is not only a top defender, but he's the team's 3rd leading scorer and 2nd best assist man and rebounder. When SMC beat USF in January, Holt finished with 11 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds. He will be missed in this one. The Dons are 18-6 ATS in February games under coach Walters. They have been a serious money-maker, currently on an 11-1 ATS run. USF has 5 players averaging between 14.4 ppg and 8.2 ppg. And Angelo Caloiaro & Rashad Green can make SMC pay from long distance with Holt sidelined. The Dons are a grand total of just 3 points away from an 8-0 SU run, losing by 1 point to BYU and by 2 points at LMU. They're also a total of just 2 points away from a perfect 7-0 home mark in WCC action. The Dons are on a 21-9 ATS run as an underdog and they're on a 7-1 ATS run in revenge. I backed USF and covered last week against BYU. The Dons followed the cover with a 66-65 win over Gonzaga and I expect another "upset" in this one. I'm taking the points with San Francisco on Saturday. Thanks! GL! Scott.